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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2022

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $80,139,963 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Oliver Wahlstrom (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Wahlstrom: $537.5K

Wahlstrom was able to hold down a regular role in the lineup last season but he hasn’t been able to show the offensive upside he had which helped him become the 11th-overall pick in 2018.  While a more offensive-oriented system from Lane Lambert should help him and give him a chance to hit one of his ‘A’ bonuses, it’s unlikely that he’ll take a big enough step to completely skip a bridge contract altogether.  A two-year deal in the $1.5MM range is where his next deal currently would fall.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Mathew Barzal ($7MM, RFA)
F Kieffer Bellows ($1.2MM, RFA)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM, UFA)
F Richard Panik ($1.375MM, UFA)*
F Zach Parise ($750K, UFA)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM, UFA)

*-Detroit is retaining an additional $1.375MM of Panik’s deal.

Potential Bonuses
Parise: $750K

Barzal took a long time to sign this deal two years ago and wound up with the ability to hold the hammer in negotiations this summer.  The three-year term puts him in a spot where he’s one year away from unrestricted free agency if he simply accepts his qualifying offer (which checks in at $8.4MM).  He’ll also have salary arbitration rights at that time.  Statistically speaking, he has produced closer to the level of a $7MM player than a true top center so he’ll be someone that will be banking on having a big season under Lambert to show that he’s worthy of being the focal point of New York’s attack for years to come.  If that happens, an extension might put them somewhere in the $9MM or more range.

Panik spent most of last season in the minors and it’s possible that he could be headed back that way as well although, with one year left on his contract instead of a multi-year commitment, that could bolster his value a little bit.  At this point, he’s likely to be closer to the minimum on his next contract, however.  Bellows was in and out of the lineup at times last season but showed a bit of offensive improvement while continuing to play with some physicality.  He took a one-year deal with the hopes of having a more consistent role next season which would give him a decent-sized boost on his contract.  Parise had a really slow start last year but was much better from January on.  The bonuses are pretty easy to hit (he’ll max out at 20 games played) and after being on these types of deals the last two years, that may be what happens next year if he wants a 19th season.

Mayfield has been a reliable defensive defenseman for several seasons now while making what a typical depth player gets.  He’ll be 30 on his next contract and as a right-shot player, he plays the side that is generally in the highest demand.  At a minimum, he’ll be able to double his current AAV and might be able to get something in the $3.5MM range on a longer-term deal on the open market.

Varlamov has basically become a high-priced insurance policy which isn’t the role he expected when he signed with them three years ago.  It’s unlikely that he’ll be able to command this much in free agency next summer unless he gets back to being a starter.  Barring injury or a trade, that’s unlikely to happen.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Sebastian Aho ($825K, UFA)
F Josh Bailey ($5MM, UFA)
F Anthony Beauvillier ($4.15MM, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($1.5MM, UFA)
G Ilya Sorokin ($4MM, UFA)

Bailey has been with the Islanders for 14 seasons now and still is looking for his first 20-goal campaign.  While he was a higher-end playmaker a few years ago, his production has dipped a bit since then.  By the time the 2024-25 campaign starts, he’ll be 35 and Bailey will be looking at having to take a bit less at that time.  Beauvillier has shown some offensive upside in the past but is coming off a particularly quiet year.  He’s a top-six winger for now and if he can hold down that spot and produce a bit more, he might be able to get this much in 2024 on his next deal.  Clutterbuck and Martin’s contracts are largely for their longevity with the organization.  Both are capable fourth liners still but are certainly on above-market deals for what they can provide.

Aho was in and out of the lineup last season but should have a chance to lock down a spot on the third pairing this time around.  If he can become a regular, even with somewhat limited minutes, that should be enough to push him past the $1MM mark on his next contract.

Sorokin has quickly established himself as the starter for the Isles and is basically playing on his bridge deal, one that takes him to free agency.  We’ve seen starters sign in the $5.5MM to $6MM range the last couple of seasons and Sorokin’s deal should come in close to that, perhaps a bit higher if the jump in the salary cap comes by then.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Noah Dobson ($4MM, RFA)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($5MM, UFA)
D Alexander Romanov ($2.5MM, RFA)

Nelson is coming off a career season that saw him score 37 goals.  That’s well above average for a second center and as long as he can stay around the 50-point range (even with a dip in goals closer to his career average in the mid-20s), they’ll get a decent return on this deal.  That said, he’ll be hard-pressed to beat this contract on the open market.  Palmieri’s first full season with the Isles was a rough one.  He is getting paid like a second-line winger but his production hasn’t been at that level the last couple of years which will likely have his contract considerably lower than this one.

Dobson had a breakout season last year, establishing himself as an impact defender while somewhat quietly becoming their top offensive rearguard as well.  While that seemingly positioned him for a long-term contract, he had to settle for a bridge, but again, it takes him to a year away from UFA eligibility which gives him a lot more leverage that time around.  If he stays at this level, that next deal could double this one.  Romanov was their one notable offseason acquisition from Montreal but also got a three-year bridge contract.  His limited production will limit his future earnings upside unless he can unlock that part of his game with his new team.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $82,426,625 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alexander Holtz (three years, $894K)
F Dawson Mercer (two years, $894K)
D Simon Nemec (three years, $950K)

Potential Bonuses
Holtz: $850K
Mercer: $400K
Nemec: $3.25MM
Total: $4.475MM

Mercer’s rookie season was a strong one as he finished fourth in freshman scoring with 42 points while grabbing hold of a spot in their top six.  Assuming he stays there and boosts his production, he could be a candidate to skip a bridge deal and do a long-term pact as they’ve done with some of their other core pieces.  Holtz may be up and down at times this season for cap purposes but when he’s in the NHL, he should be in the top six, allowing for some point production.  If he winds up being up for the bulk of the season, he could hit several of his ‘A’ bonuses which is noteworthy with how tight the Devils are to the cap ceiling.

Nemec is another player that could be up and down at times this season.  The second-overall pick from July is eligible to go to the AHL since he wasn’t drafted out of the CHL and shuffling him back and forth would allow them to manage his minutes in New Jersey and then get him to play bigger roles in the minors.  If he surprises in training camp and lands a top-four spot, however, then he’ll have a good chance at reaching some of his ‘A’ bonuses as well.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Nathan Bastian ($825K, RFA)
G Jonathan Bernier ($4.125MM, UFA)
G Mackenzie Blackwood ($2.8MM, RFA)
F Jesper Boqvist ($874K, RFA)
F Jesper Bratt ($5.45MM, RFA)
D Ryan Graves ($3.167MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.375MM, UFA)
F Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Michael McLeod ($950K, RFA)
D Damon Severson ($4.167MM, UFA)
F Yegor Sharangovich ($2MM, RFA)
F Tomas Tatar ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Miles Wood ($3.2MM, UFA)

Let’s start with the pending UFA forwards.  Tatar continues to be a strong possession player but his production has dropped the last couple of seasons.  He’s a placeholder for someone like Holtz and while waiting out the market worked relatively well for him last summer, he’ll be hard-pressed to get this on his next contract.  Johnsson had a much better showing last season compared to his first year in New Jersey and considering he’ll be 28 in free agency, he could get a contract that’s somewhat close to this rate assuming he produces at a similar rate next season.

Wood played just three games last season as he worked his way back from hip surgery so this deal was largely based on his past production.  If healthy, he’s an effective middle-six winger that can contribute in a few different ways.  But if the injury woes persist or he struggles, he’s a candidate for a one-year deal closer to the $2MM range.  Haula came over in a trade from Boston for Pavel Zacha and is coming off one of the best seasons of his career.  He won’t get as much top-six time with the Devils but even if his production goes closer to the 30-point mark (compared to 44 in 2021-22), he should be able to get at least a small raise on this contract.

Bratt has been through a couple of long negotiations already and the one-year settlement they reached last month only kicked the can down the road.  This is clearly a prove-it contract after leading the team in scoring last season.  A repeat performance could push him towards the $7.5MM range on a long-term agreement when he’ll have the hammer next summer in his final season of RFA eligibility.  Sharangovich didn’t improve much on his per-game rates as a rookie but he has certainly shown that he’s a top-six winger for the Devils.  His qualifying offer is $2.2MM and right now, his next deal could be in the $3.5MM range if he plays at a similar level next season.

McLeod’s offensive production hasn’t come around compared to his days in junior but he has been a strong middleman on the fourth line the last couple of seasons.  With Zacha gone, he could get more of an offensive chance although Haula will cut into those chances as well.  He should land a bit more than his $1MM qualifying offer next summer and a one-year deal might be an option if he has a similar offensive showing this season.  Boqvist is now waiver-eligible so he shouldn’t see any time with Utica this season.  He took his qualifying offer this summer and will have arbitration eligibility next offseason where, if he can produce at a similar rate as he did in 2021-22, he could push for something in the $1.75MM range.  Bastian returned after being claimed back on waivers from Seattle and provided decent production from the fourth line.  His qualifier is just under $920K but with teams trying to stay cheap on their depth players, he might have a hard time getting much more than that unless he can crack the double-digit mark in goals again.

Onto the defensemen.  Severson has been on a team-friendly deal for a while now and with his jump in production last season, his contract looks even better for the Devils now.  He’ll be 29 when his next contract kicks in and has logged top-pairing minutes for the last few seasons.  He could find himself with a long-term deal worth more than $6MM per year at this time in 2023.  Graves has become a quality option on the second pairing over the past four seasons and he’ll only be 28 next summer.  He won’t produce enough to command the type of money that Severson will but he could push his way into the $4.5MM range a year from now.

Bernier was signed to platoon with Blackwood but hip troubles ended his season early and will delay the start of this one.  Between that and the fact he’ll be 35 next summer, he’ll be looking at a one-year deal if he’s able to play at all and it should be considerably cheaper than this one.  Blackwood is coming off a tough year and his numbers have dipped in each of the last three seasons.  His qualifying offer is $3.36MM next summer and if he’s once again on the weak side of the platoon, he could be a non-tender candidate.  On the flip side, he’s still young enough to potentially establish himself as at least a medium-term solution beyond 2022-23.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Brendan Smith ($1.1MM, UFA)

Smith has been a serviceable and versatile veteran at the end of the roster for the last few seasons with an ability to play up front when needed as well.  He’s likely to have a depth role with New Jersey which will likely have him in line for a similar contract a couple of years from now.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Vitek Vanecek ($3.4MM, UFA)

With Blackwood’s struggles and Bernier’s injury concerns, GM Tom Fitzgerald elected to bring in another goaltender and quickly inked Vanecek to this three-year deal.  He has been part of the platoon in Washington for the past two seasons, posting a .908 SV% each time.  He’s probably still going to be a platoon option with Blackwood but he gives New Jersey some medium-term depth with the other two on expiring contracts with prospects like Nico Daws and Akira Schmid needing more AHL time.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $82,083.333 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Yegor Chinakhov (one year, $925K)
F Kent Johnson (two years, $925K)
F Cole Sillinger (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Chinakhov: $700K
Johnson: $925K
Sillinger: $850K
Total: $2.475MM

Sillinger was the lone player from the 2021 draft class to spend the full season in the NHL and he acquitted himself well with 31 points in a middle-six role.  If he can secure a top-six role for the next two seasons, he’s a candidate to bypass a bridge deal but it’s still too early to forecast his second contract.  It’s possible that he hits one or two of his ‘A’ bonuses worth $212.5K as well.  Johnson burned the first season of his entry-level pact with a nine-game stint down the stretch where he didn’t look out of place.  He should be able to push for a regular spot in 2022-23 but unless he steps into a dominant role quickly, a shorter-term second contract is likely coming his way.  The same can be said for Chinakhov.  He fared okay in a limited role last season but players in lower roles rarely get long-term second contracts.  If he stays in the bottom six, a one-year deal worth around $1MM or a two-year pact closer to $1.5MM are his likely outcomes.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Gavin Bayreuther ($750K, UFA)
D Vladislav Gavrikov ($2.8MM, UFA)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($1.3MM, UFA))
F Gustav Nyquist ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($750K, RFA)
D Andrew Peeke ($788K, RFA)

After missing all of 2020-21 due to injury, Nyquist played in every game last season and put up a respectable 53 points.  He’ll need a better showing next season to have a shot at making more on his next deal.  Otherwise, at 34, he’ll be looking at a shorter-term deal closer to the $4MM range.  Olivier was brought in from Nashville to give the Blue Jackets a bit of grit up front but unless he can secure a regular spot, he’ll be signed for the minimum or close to it a year from now.

Gavrikov took a big step forward last season and really established himself as one of their top blueliners; he sat second on the team in ATOI.  Getting someone that spends a fair bit of time on the top pairing for money that’s usually reserved for fourth or fifth defenders is quite good.  He’ll be 27 next summer when a long-term deal worth around double his current AAV might await him.  Peeke is also in line for a sizable raise after showing that he’s capable of playing on the second pairing in a stay-at-home type of role.  With arbitration rights next summer, he could jump into the $3MM range or even a bit higher on a contract that buys out multiple UFA years.  Bayreuther should be on the fringes of the lineup this season so he’s unlikely to command much more than the minimum next summer.

Korpisalo had a tough year, one that saw him miss nearly half the games due to injury or illness and when he was between the pipes, he struggled mightily.  Knowing his market wouldn’t have been strong in free agency, he opted to take a considerable pay cut to try to rebuild his value this season.  If he can, he could get back to the $2.5MM to $3MM range next summer.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Jake Bean ($2.33MM, RFA)
F Emil Bemstrom ($900K, RFA)
D Nick Blankenburg ($825K, RFA)
F Justin Danforth ($975K, UFA)
F Eric Robinson ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Jack Roslovic ($4MM, UFA)
F Alexandre Texier ($1.525MM, RFA)
F Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM, UFA)

Voracek was brought back for a second stint with the Blue Jackets last summer in a move to shake up the core with Philadelphia.  On the one hand, he led the team in points with 62 points.  On the other hand, only six of those were goals.  Players making that much money should be expected to score more than six times but they have to be pleased with the assist total.  He is already showing signs of slowing down and the fact he’ll be 35 in 2024 won’t help either.  A contract closer to half of his current price might be where his market falls at that time unless he starts to show a lot more of a scoring touch over these next two years.

Roslovic had a career season with 45 points but somewhat surprisingly, the Blue Jackets weren’t able to work out a deal to extend their team control, instead opting for a second bridge that walks him right to free agency.  Assuming he can at least remain as a second-line center between now and then, he will land a bigger contract at that time.  Robinson has become a capable bottom-six checker that produces fairly well at even strength which pushed him over the $1MM mark for the first time.  If he can find another level and get to the 35-point mark or so, he could make a case to add another million on the open market.

Texier technically only has one year left on his contract but since he won’t play this season under suspension (which allowed him to play closer to home for family reasons), his deal won’t expire until 2024.  He was showing signs of breaking out in limited action last season and if he plays at that level if and when he returns for 2023-24, he could land closer to double his $1.75MM qualifying offer.  Bemstrom and Danforth had limited roles last season and will first need to secure a full-time lineup spot before they can hope to earn any sort of significant raise on their next deals.

Bean was hoping to get an expanded role after being acquired from Carolina and that’s exactly what happened as his ATOI jumped up by more than six minutes per game while moving into their top four.  He’s a bargain at this price tag and if he can hold that role for two more years, he’ll earn considerably more than his $2.8MM qualifying offer.  Blankenburg signed as an undrafted college free agent down the stretch, burning his one-year deal in the span of a few weeks.  He’s waiver-exempt and could see some time in the minors but if he’s a regular by the end of this contract, he’ll push past the $1MM mark.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Adam Boqvist ($2.6MM, RFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Daniil Tarasov ($1.05MM, RFA)

Kuraly signed with his hometown team last summer and got a bit of a bigger role than he had with Boston.  He responded with the best offensive season of his career with 14 goals and 30 points in 77 games while leading all Columbus forwards in shorthanded ice time per game.  This deal looked like a bit of an overpayment at the time but if he keeps up that type of production, the Blue Jackets will get decent value from it.

Boqvist was a key part of the return from Chicago in the Seth Jones trade last summer and showed some promise when he was healthy, notching 11 goals in just 52 games.  That was enough for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to award him with this three-year bridge deal, one that carries a $3.12MM qualifying offer.  If he can establish himself in their top four and provide above-average production, he could be looking at a sizable raise of his own in 2025.

Tarasov is waiver-exempt this coming season and is likely to be in the minors.  However, with a one-way and three-year commitment, it’s clear that the Blue Jackets view him as the backup heading into 2023-24 so it’s safe to slot him into Korpisalo’s spot on the roster a year from now.  Even as a second-stringer, two good seasons from him could more than double his current cost.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $85,116,917 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Seth Jarvis (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Jarvis: $500K

Jarvis had a nice rookie season in 2021-22 with 40 points in 68 games, good for eighth in team scoring.  Three of the seven ahead of him have since moved on so there should be an opportunity for him to take on a bigger role in his sophomore year.  Notably, he barely achieved $100K of his bonuses last season so Carolina shouldn’t automatically expect him to hit the $500K this time around.  A sizable jump in production over the next couple of years could have him in line for a longer-term deal that bypasses a bridge contract; a deal like that could push into the $6MM range if he can get closer to the 60-point mark.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

G Frederik Andersen ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Ethan Bear ($2.2MM, RFA)
D Dylan Coghlan ($762.5K, UFA)
F Jesper Fast ($2MM, UFA)
D Jake Gardiner ($4.05MM, UFA)
F Ondrej Kase ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Max Pacioretty ($7MM, UFA)
F Lane Pederson ($750K, RFA)
G Antti Raanta ($2MM, UFA)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM, UFA)
F Paul Stastny ($1.5MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Stastny: $500K

Carolina acquired Pacioretty with the hopes he’d help replace some of the lost scoring from the departures of Vincent Trocheck and Nino Niederreiter.  Unfortunately for them, he then tore his Achilles in training and will miss most of the regular season.  He’ll be 34 when his next contract starts and missing this much time in 2022-23 doesn’t bode well for his next deal.  If he gets a multi-year agreement, it’ll be at a discount.  A one-year deal with some performance bonuses will also be an option since he’ll have missed enough time to qualify.  Staal is in the final season of his 10-year deal and while the captain is still a key defensive player, his production has fallen off lately.  He’ll be 35 on his next contract and could be a year-to-year player with bonuses while a two-year agreement could check in closer to the $3.75MM range.

Fast has fit in quite well with Carolina as a secondary scorer and even with a weakened market for wingers, he should be in line for at least a small raise on this price tag.  That said, it felt like he signed an under-market contract last time around.  Kase, when healthy, can be a capable top-six forward but staying healthy has proven to be difficult which has led to two straight non-tenders.  Even if he stays away from concussion trouble this coming season, his market shouldn’t improve by much.  Stastny took a little less to go to a contender with his bonuses only being payable if Carolina wins the Stanley Cup.  His market value is closer to the $3.5MM range if he was to prioritize salary on his next contract.  Pederson comes over from San Jose and should be a regular on the fourth line but should still check in under $1MM on his next contract.

Gardiner missed all of last season due to injuries and while he’s hoping to return this season, there’s still no guaranteed roster spot for him.  Carolina can waive him and free up $1.125MM in cap space while his market value next summer might be closer to the $1MM mark.  Bear was speculated to be a non-tender candidate after being a frequent scratch down the stretch but the Hurricanes will give him one more look.  If he’s still only able to hold down a spot on the third pairing, he won’t be in position to command much more than this.  Coghlan was the prize for Carolina absorbing Pacioretty’s contract and could push his way past the $1MM mark if he’s able to lock down a regular spot on the third pairing.

Andersen didn’t sign with the Hurricanes when they drafted him but 11 years later, he joined them in free agency on a short-term deal with the hopes of rebuilding some value.  One year in and it’s so far, so good.  He turned in a career year, finishing fourth in Vezina Trophy voting.  Even so, Carolina’s system is good at supressing shots so even a repeat performance isn’t going to drastically boost his value.  A small jump is achievable while he might be able to get an extra year or two as well.  Raanta had a nice bounce-back after a tough year in Arizona.  Frequent injuries are going to continue to limit the 33-year-old to a second-string role although he might be able to get closer to the $3MM mark next summer.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Sebastian Aho ($8.46MM, UFA)
D Jalen Chatfield ($762.5K, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Martin Necas ($3MM, RFA)
D Brett Pesce ($4..025MM, UFA)
D Brady Skjei ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4MM, UFA)

Aho’s contract, you may recall, came from an offer sheet from Montreal back in 2019, one that Carolina wasted little time matching.  He has blossomed into a star two-way center and because of the offer sheet, he has positioned himself to reach the open market before his age-27 season where a max-term, big-money offer certainly awaits.  $10MM or more is certainly attainable if he continues to hover around the point per game mark.

Teravainen has picked up 60 or more points in four of the last five seasons, making him a very reliable top-six winger.  His two-way game is also strong so even with wingers feeling the squeeze a bit in recent years, he should be an exception to that as he should be able to command something in the $7MM range.  Necas will begin his bridge deal with a chance to really lock down a full-time spot in the top six.  He has ranged between 36 and 41 points the last three years and will need to boost the high end of that if he wants to get significantly more than his $3.5MM qualifying offer in 2024.  Martinook has been a reliable checker on the fourth line over his tenure with the Hurricanes although this contract is an above-market one in terms of that role.  He’ll likely come in a bit lower on his next deal.

Skjei arguably had a career year in 2021-22 and has become a key part of Carolina’s top four on the back end.  He’ll be 30 when his contract is up and while he shouldn’t be able to command top-pair money, he should be in a position to add a million or so on his next deal while perhaps landing his second straight six-year agreement.  Pesce continues to be a high-end defensive defender that has chipped in with some quality secondary scoring.  Between that and the fact he’s a right-shot player, he could surpass the $6MM mark as well on his next contract, one that could be close to a max-term agreement if he makes it to the open market.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Brent Burns ($5.28MM, UFA)*
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM, UFA)

* – San Jose is retaining another $2.72MM on Burns’ deal

Slavin has always been a high-end defensive defender but last season, he found a way to contribute more offensively as well, setting career-highs in assists (38) and points (42), a scoring rate he maintained in the playoffs.  If he’s able to keep this up, he’ll be even more of a bargain while setting himself up for a big raise in 2025.  When it comes to Carolina’s defensemen, being on team-friendly deals is a common factor.  With the Sharks holding back so much of Burns’ deal, the same could be said for him as well.  Even at 37, he logged more than 26 minutes a game last season while recording 54 points.  If he can maintain that with Carolina, that’s number one production for number three money.  He’ll be 40 at the end of this deal and it will be interesting to see if he extends his career past this point.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $92,736,310 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

G Laurent Brossoit ($2.325MM, UFA)
G Adin Hill ($2.175MM, UFA)
F Brett Howden ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Phil Kessel ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Nolan Patrick ($1.2MM, RFA)
F Sakari Manninen ($750K, UFA)

Kessel was brought in a couple of weeks ago once the Golden Knights learned that they had some extra LTIR flexibility.  He’s not the high-end sniper he was in the prime of his career but he still finished third on the Coyotes in scoring last season and should be a low-cost secondary scoring option on a team that doesn’t have a lot of value contracts.  Howden was limited last season due to injuries and often was on the fourth line when he was in the lineup.  Despite that, he received this contract back in July to avoid any possibility of arbitration but he’ll need to take on a bigger role to justify getting qualifying him with arbitration rights next summer.

Patrick saw very limited action last season as his concussion issues continued and he might be another LTIR candidate for the upcoming season.  Unless something changes, he’ll be non-tendered in June.  Manninen’s strong showing at both the Olympics and the Worlds earned him his first NHL contract at the age of 30 on a one-way agreement and will have a good chance to earn a roster spot, especially if they have enough LTIR flexibility to carry more than the minimum-sized roster.

Brossoit was brought in last summer to serve as the backup goaltender and continued his trend of alternating good and bad years with 2021-22 landing in the latter category.  His availability for the start of this coming season is in question due to hip surgery so he is going to have a limited window to show that he’s worthy of a similar contract next summer.  Hill was recently acquired using part of their extra LTIR space and should get a good opportunity to boost his stock heading into free agency next summer, especially if he could lock down the starting role at some point.  Even if not, he could get a small boost as the backup market continues to improve.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Michael Amadio ($763K, UFA)
F William Carrier ($1.4MM, UFA)
D Ben Hutton ($850K, UFA)
F Jonathan Marchessault ($5MM, UFA)
D Alec Martinez ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($2.75MM, UFA)

Marchessault is one of the few remaining original Golden Knights and is the leading scorer in franchise history after five strong seasons.  He’ll be 33 on his next deal and if he can maintain the type of production he has provided Vegas, he could get a multi-year agreement around this rate again.  Stephenson has become quite the bargain after Washington couldn’t find a regular role for him in the lineup.  He has quickly become a top-six center that makes third-line money and at this point, him doubling his current AAV is definitely doable on the open market in 2024.

Carrier isn’t a significant scorer although he produces more than most fourth-liners do while providing them with plenty of physicality.  This is a bit of an above-market deal for someone in that role compared to a lot of fourth-liners signing for around $1MM or less but Vegas is getting more out of him than other teams will from their depth pieces.  Amadio was brought in off waivers last year and was a decent depth contributor, earning himself a one-way deal but he’ll need to become an everyday regular to do much better than that in 2024.

Martinez likely left money on the table when he signed an extension last summer but injuries really limited him last season which has hurt his value.  He’ll be 37 when his next contract starts and at that point, he might have to go year-to-year at a lower rate than this one.  Hutton turned a PTO into a one-year deal, then did well enough to get this extension.  He has been in a fringe role for a few years now so his market isn’t likely to change much over the next couple of seasons.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Keegan Kolesar ($1.4MM, UFA)
G Robin Lehner ($5MM, UFA)
F Jake Leschyshyn ($767K, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($2.85MM, UFA)
F Jonas Rondbjerg ($767K, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)
D Shea Theodore ($5.2MM, UFA)
G Logan Thompson ($767K, UFA)

Smith hasn’t been able to produce at the level he did early on in his time with Vegas but he continues to be a reliable secondary option that can play in all situations so the team opted to hand him a new three-year deal in July at the same rate of his last one.  If the downtick in production continues though, he’ll be hard-pressed to get another $5MM deal in 2025.  Kolesar avoided arbitration with his deal last month and did well with this agreement following his only full NHL season.  Clearly, Vegas believes he has another level he can get to which would make this a team-friendly deal if he can step into a regular role on the third line.  Leschyshyn and Rondbjerg were both up and down last season but are now waiver-eligible which could help them stick at the end of the roster and could boost their stock by securing a regular spot in the lineup at some point during their contracts.

Theodore has emerged as a strong top-pairing blueliner over the last few seasons which makes his deal one of the biggest bargains they have as they’re getting top production at a second-pair rate.  He’ll be 30 at the end of this agreement so a max-term contract could be coming his way at a considerably higher price tag than this one.  McNabb, meanwhile, isn’t a big point-producer and provides most of his value on the defensive side of things.  As long as he can continue to hover around the 20-minute mark, the Golden Knights will get a good return on this contract.

Lehner was the undisputed starter for Vegas last season with Marc-Andre Fleury being traded away last summer in a straight salary cap dump move.  However, injuries limited him to just 44 games while he battled inconsistency which is hardly the outcome they were hoping for when they picked Lehner to be the starter.  To make matters worse, they recently revealed that he will need hip surgery that will keep him out for all of the upcoming season.  While that created the LTIR room for them to add Kessel and Hill, Lehner’s absence certainly also creates a big question between the pipes not only for the upcoming season but beyond as well since hip issues can often be a lingering issue.

Thompson will get an opportunity to be at least the short-term answer to the goaltending question as he will get a long look at being the starter this season.  If he can lock down that role, his contract will become one of the top bargains in the league.  If things don’t go well, however, he’s a candidate to be sent down when Brossoit is cleared to return; Thompson remains waiver-exempt for the upcoming season.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $85,261,667 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nils Hoglander (one year, $891.7K)
F Andrei Kuzmenko (one year, $950K, UFA)
F Vasily Podkolzin (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $300K
Kuzmenko: $850K
Podkolzin: $850K
Total: $2MM

Kuzmenko had several suitors in the spring following a strong season in the KHL that saw him put up 53 points in 45 games.  If he’s able to lock down a spot in the top nine, the Canucks will get a good return on this deal and he’ll have a chance to hit some of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Notably, Kuzmenko will be an unrestricted free agent next summer again and obviously, his showing this coming season will dictate the level of interest he gets next time around.

Podkolzin’s first NHL season was a solid one as he was a capable secondary scorer with 26 points in 79 games while mostly playing only at even strength.  He should have a similar role in 2022-23 which wouldn’t have him on the trajectory for a pricey second deal; a bridge contract would be the likelier route for him.  A similar role will make it tough to reach his ‘A’ bonuses as well.  Hoglander took a step back in his sophomore year and dropped down the depth chart.  With the extra depth that they’ve brought in, his production will likely be limited, pointing him in the direction of a bridge deal as well that might check in around double his current price tag.  He probably won’t hit his ‘A’ bonus but the $87.5K in games played is achievable.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Kyle Burroughs ($750K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Brady Keeper ($762.5K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)

Horvat has been a reliable two-way pivot for most of his career and has been playing on a below-market contract for the last few years.  That’s likely to change next summer when he’ll be one of the top centers on the open market.  Adding a couple million to his current price tag is doable.  Ferland missed all of the last two seasons with concussion issues and won’t play this year either.  He’ll be on LTIR which will help get Vancouver back into cap compliance.  Dowling split last season between the NHL and AHL and is the type of depth player that could stick around for another couple of years at the minimum.

Dermott has had a quiet couple of seasons now and this feels like a make-or-break situation for him.  If he can establish himself as a capable secondary producer from the back end and stabilize the third pairing, he could land a small raise next summer beyond his $1.75MM qualifying offer.  If not, he’s a non-tender candidate.  Schenn showed himself to be capable of being a regular on the back end last season after being more of a reserve player and that could generate a stronger market next summer and push him past the $1MM mark.  Keeper and Burroughs will be battling for a spot at the end of the roster but both are players that will be unlikely to land much beyond the minimum on their next contracts.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
G Spencer Martin ($762.5K, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Elias Pettersson ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Jack Rathbone ($825K, RFA)

Pettersson opted for a bridge contract last summer which helped Vancouver to stay cap-compliant and give them a little more flexibility in the short term.  However, the contract is significantly backloaded and carries a qualifying offer of $8.82MM next summer (the lower of 120% of the AAV or the final year’s salary of $10.25MM).  At this point, the 23-year-old is well on his way to being worth that qualifying amount but the Canucks will likely need to come in above that to get him to commit to a long-term agreement.  Otherwise, he could simply opt to take the minimum offer and test the open market in 2025.  Horvat’s deal is the priority right now but Pettersson’s situation looms large from a planning perspective.

Pearson improved upon his performance from the year before but it was still a notch below how he did in his first full season with the Canucks.  On its own, the contract isn’t an overpayment but the market has been tight for middle-six wingers lately so there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to get that two years from now.  Dickinson’s first season with Vancouver was a disaster.  Brought in to be the third-line center, he instead struggled mightily, putting up the worst full-season numbers of his career.  At this point, he’s a candidate to be waived in training camp (which would still leave a lingering $1.525MM cap charge).

Myers hasn’t lived up to his contract from a value standpoint but he has logged some heavy minutes in a top-three role since joining the Canucks three years ago.  His offensive game has tailed off which won’t help his market two years from now but he should still be able to land a multi-year deal in the $4MM range in 2024.  Rathbone is another player that will be in the mix for a roster spot with Vancouver in training camp and notably received a one-way deal for both years despite having limited NHL experience.  He has the offensive ability to put up some numbers that could quickly escalate his salary two years from now if he’s able to lock down a regular role in the lineup.

Martin has very limited NHL experience with just nine appearances under his belt, six of which came last season where he did well enough to earn the backup nod.  If the 27-year-old can establish himself as a capable full-time backup based on performance and not his contract, there will be an opportunity to add a couple of million or more on his next deal.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Brock Boeser ($6.65MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM, UFA)

Boeser’s case was one that had some pressure on it earlier this summer when the qualifying offer deadline was getting close.  In the end, he took less than that number ($7.5MM) in exchange for a three-year commitment.  Boeser produced closer to the level of a second-liner last season and if that continues, this could wind up being an above-market contract.  Lazar comes over after spending last season with Boston on their fourth line and he’ll likely have the same role with Vancouver.  There really isn’t much risk with this deal; $1MM for a capable fourth liner is a fair price.

Poolman is someone whose availability is certainly in question as he continues to try to work his way back from a concussion.  When healthy, he is an option for the third pairing but if he’s unable to start the season, he could go on LTIR and simplify Vancouver’s short-term salary cap situation.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Seattle Kraken

Current Cap Hit: $81,489,166 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Beniers (two years, $897.5K)
F Shane Wright (three years, $950K)

Potential Bonuses
Beniers: $925K
Wright: $3.0625MM
Total: $3.9875MM

Beniers was the second-overall selection last year and had a dominant year at Michigan before making the jump to the pros where he averaged just shy of a point per game down the stretch.  He should become their top center within the next couple of seasons and with it, a long-term deal in the $8MM range could be on the table based on recent comparable signings.  With his expected role, he should reach his bonuses this season which will need to be factored into their cap plans.  Wright slipped to fourth overall last month after being the consensus number one for a lot of the last two seasons but has been billed as being NHL-ready.  They’ll be able to ease him in which could result in some lower production at the beginning although it shouldn’t affect his second contract that much unless he’s in a limited role longer than expected.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($1.4MM, RFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Karson Kuhlman ($825K, UFA)
G Martin Jones ($2MM, UFA)
F Kole Lind ($825K, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)

Donskoi was one of Seattle’s higher-profile pickups in expansion but struggled considerably last season, scoring just twice in 75 games.  While it’s likely that he’ll rebound to an extent, he’ll be hard-pressed to get more than about two-thirds of his current cost unless he has a career year.  Geekie’s first full NHL season was a decent one as he acquitted himself in somewhat of a limited role while being their best player at the faceoff dot.  Even in a bottom-six role, there’s some room for him to pass the $2MM mark next summer.  Donato returned after being non-tendered to avoid salary arbitration and while he is coming off a career year, the fact he wasn’t able to do better than this on the open market doesn’t bode well for his odds next summer.  Lind, Kuhlman, and Hayden will be battling for the final forward spot or two on the roster but are unlikely to command much more than their current rates unless one of them can step into a legitimate full-time role.

GM Ron Francis felt that Dunn would be able to stand out more with a bigger role and he did just that, tying his career-high in points while setting a new benchmark in assists.  Another showing like that could push him past the $5MM mark next summer in his final season of RFA eligibility.  Soucy wasn’t able to land in Seattle’s top four very often last year but that didn’t stop him from showing off an improved offensive element to his game as he scored ten goals which is two more than the previous two years combined.  With the size he also brings, a repeat performance could allow him to generate a strong market that could push his AAV into the $3MM range despite being a third-pairing piece which is an area teams often try to save money in.  For Soucy, they might make an exception.  Borgen was a frequent healthy scratch last season which certainly wasn’t the Kraken debut he was hoping for.  A similar role could have him in non-tender territory next summer while if he does lock down a spot on the third pairing, a one-year deal at a small raise might be the route Seattle opts to take.

Jones is coming off another quiet year with the Flyers and has failed to post a save percentage above .900 over the last four seasons.  Despite that, Seattle opted for him as their backup goaltender for the upcoming campaign but at some point, it stands to reason that another below-average performance will push him down closer to the $1MM mark next summer.

Signed Through 2023-24

G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Justin Schultz ($3MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)

Eberle’s first season with Seattle saw him play a similar role to the one that he had with the Islanders so it’s not surprising that his production was largely in line with his performance with New York.  It’s an output that isn’t quite worth $5.5MM but if he can stay around the 20-goal mark for the next couple of seasons, he should be able to land somewhat close to this on his next deal.  Wennberg wasn’t quite able to replicate the production he had with the Panthers but his output at the center position is worth close to his current rate compared to the open market.  However, with Beniers and Wright around, can he get those numbers again?  That will dictate a lot when it comes to his next contract as to whether a small raise could be had or a sizable drop.

Schultz comes over from Washington where he’s coming off a quiet year offensively by his standards which made this commitment a bit surprising.  He should have an opportunity to play a bigger role offensively which could help but even so, he’ll be 34 when his next contract starts so it’d be hard to foresee a big raise on the horizon.

Driedger had a tough first season with the Kraken although he still managed a save percentage of .899, the best on the team.  His second year will be even tougher as an ACL tear suffered at the Worlds will cost him the majority of next season.  Suffice it to say, there will be a lot at stake in 2023-24 when it comes to determining his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Yanni Gourde ($5.167MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM, UFA)

After a couple of quieter seasons with Tampa Bay, Gourde had a golden opportunity with Seattle last season as he was their all-situations top center.  While his best success came in a lower role with the Lightning, Gourde adapted quite well to being a go-to player and finished second on the team in scoring.  Again, Beniers and eventually Wright will cut into his playing time but for now, this contract is one of Seattle’s better ones.  Tanev was limited to just 32 games last season due to a knee injury but was quite effective over the first couple of months of the season.  His contract has long been viewed as above-market after Pittsburgh signed him for six years at his current price but if he stays near that half a point per game mark while playing his usual strong defensive and physical game, the Kraken will do well with this contract.

Larsson was one of two veteran defensemen to eschew a chance at testing the open market last summer to instead sign a long-term deal with Seattle.  In his case, he received a much bigger role than he was accustomed to with Edmonton which helped him set a new career-best in points.  In the process, he established himself as still being capable of being a second or third defender.  That’s not the most optimal role for him and he wouldn’t be in that role on a top team but any time a team can get a second or third blueliner for this much money, it’s one that they’re going to be quite happy with.  That said, even if he stays in that role for three more years, it’s unlikely the open market will view him at that level.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $82,362,501 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Thomas Bordeleau (two years, $917K)
F William Eklund (three years, $894K)
F Scott Reedy (one year, $843K)

Potential Bonuses
Eklund: $850K
Reedy: $82.5K
Totals: $932.5K

All three of these players are likely to spend some time at both the NHL and AHL levels.  Reedy is the most experienced of the three after spending half of last season with the Sharks in a depth role but he’s the type of player that next summer will be looking at taking less than his qualifying offer in exchange for a higher AHL pay (or a one-way deal).  His bonuses are based on games played so some might be achievable.  If Eklund can lock down a full-time spot in training camp, he’ll have a chance at hitting some of his ‘A’ bonuses but, like Bordeleau, he’s probably better off playing top minutes in the minors over a lesser role in the NHL.  With both having very limited NHL experience, it’s too early to forecast their next contracts but both players figure to be big parts of San Jose’s future plans.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Nick Bonino ($2.05MM, UFA)
F Jonah Gadjovich ($750K, RFA)
F Noah Gregor ($950K, RFA)
D Nikolai Knyzhov ($850K, RFA)
F Timo Meier ($6MM, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($850K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($1.5MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jeffrey Viel ($750K, RFA)

Potential Bonuses:
Nutivaara: $250K

Meier’s contract is a by-product of what teams expected the financial picture to look like at this time, one that featured some significant increases to the Upper Limit.  The heavily back-loaded structure sees him carry a $10MM salary this season which also represents his qualifying offer next summer; while the new CBA put in the 120% of AAV cap (unofficially thought by some as the Meier Rule), contracts signed before that time like his aren’t subjected to it.  Under the projected future cap from a few years ago, a $10MM price point for a top-line winger would have been high but probably reasonable but now, it’s certainly on the high side.  It’s unlikely San Jose would non-tender him next summer even at that price tag but they’ll be wanting him to leave a bit of money on the table from an AAV perspective on a long-term extension.

Bonino has scored at least 10 goals in six straight years and eight of the past nine while winning faceoffs at an above-average rate.  That combination makes him a bottom-six fit for several teams so he should have a decent-sized market next summer at a similar price point to this.  Gregor spent most of last season with the Sharks and acquitted himself well but San Jose’s cap situation basically forced a one-year deal.  He’ll have arbitration eligibility next summer and should add at least a few hundred thousand to his price tag.  Nieto, Gadjovich, and Viel are all role players that are likely to come in below $1MM on their next contracts.

Nutivaara is coming off a season that limited him to just a single appearance due to a lower-body injury but has a track record of being a serviceable third-pairing player.  He’ll max out on his bonuses at 60 games played and if he’s able to suit up that many times, he’ll have a stronger market and a chance to earn a bit more next summer.  Knyzhov missed last season due to a core muscle injury and tore his Achilles tendon in offseason training earlier this month which will cause him to miss at least the first half of the season.  He’s a capable young defender but these injuries will limit him to another short-term, low-cost contract.

Reimer will be the second goaltender next season after Adin Hill was moved to Vegas earlier this week.  The 34-year-old got the bulk of the starts in 2021-22 and did alright considering how much the team struggled.  A similar showing this season would put him in line for at least a small raise as the cost for quality veteran backups continues to rise.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Alexander Barabanov ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Kevin Labanc ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Oskar Lindblom ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Jaycob Megna ($763K, UFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25MM, UFA)

Labanc’s contract is basically the reward he received for taking a significantly below-market contract back in 2019 to help with San Jose’s cap situation at that time.  Things have not gone well since then as he has battled injuries and struggled to produce.  At this point, his market value two years from now might be half of his current cost.  Barabanov quietly finished fifth on the Sharks in scoring last season with 39 points and this deal represents a lower-risk commitment to see if it was a fluke or a sign of things to come.

Kunin and Lindblom are newcomers that have shown flashes of upside but haven’t been able to put it together consistently.  Kunin’s cost is a bit high relative to his production but power forwards often get more than market value while Lindblom hasn’t been the same since returning from his bout with cancer which resulted in the Flyers buying him out this summer.  Both are on placeholder deals to see how they’ll fit on a new team and to give the top prospects like Eklund and Bordeleau time to develop.  If things go well, small raises could come their way.  Lorentz comes over from Carolina and is a fourth liner that the Sharks feel might be able to play higher in the lineup.  That will need to happen for him to have a chance at a notable raise next summer.

Simek hardly played last season and doesn’t appear to be part of their plans on the back end beyond a depth spot.  However, this isn’t a particularly ideal market for cutting salary so it’s unlikely that San Jose will be able to move him.  Unless he can lock down a regular role, his next contract will be closer to half of what he’s getting now.  Megna is a serviceable depth defender at the league minimum for two years and if he can play on the third pairing most nights, he’ll have a shot at a small raise in 2024.  Notably for him, this contract is his first one-way pact after four straight two-way deals.

Kahkonen was brought over from Minnesota at the trade deadline with the hopes that he can be San Jose’s starter of the future.  However, a limited track record made a long-term deal very difficult to work out so they effectively settled on another bridge contract.  If he can prove he’s a starter-caliber goalie, doubling his current AAV is achievable but if he proves to be more of a platoon option, his next deal will likely be in the $3MM range.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Nico Sturm ($2MM, UFA)

Sturm started his pro career late after going through college first and basically only has the last two seasons as a regular player where his role has been somewhat limited.  Clearly, the Sharks believe there’s some upside that will justify the three-year commitment and if he’s able to produce closer to the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $80,986,667 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Tobias Bjornfot (one year, $894K)
F Quinton Byfield (two years, $894K)
F Arthur Kaliyev (two years, $894K)
F Rasmus Kupari (one year, $863K)
D Jordan Spence (two years, $820K)

Potential Bonuses
Bjornfot: $262.5K
Byfield: $2.65MM
Kaliyev: $150K
Kupari: $350K
Spence: $82.5K
Total: $3.495MM

Kailyev had a decent first full NHL season, notching 27 points in 80 games in a limited role.  He’s likely to remain in the bottom six for a little while yet which will likely have him trending towards a bridge contract in 2024, one that would still more than double his current price tag.  Byfield, the second-overall pick in 2019, had a quiet rookie year and is unlikely to play any higher than the third line with the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart.  Accordingly, a big-ticket contract isn’t coming his way in two years’ time; both sides will want a short-term pact.  Kupari was a serviceable checking forward last season which isn’t bad but they’re hoping for more offensively from him.  A similar showing this season will put his bridge contract in the $1.5MM range.

Bjornfot was a fixture on the third pairing for most of last season and it will be interesting to see if head coach Todd McLellan pushes him a little higher in 2022-23.  His limited offensive upside will limit his earnings potential (especially if they try to work out a long-term deal) but he’ll have a shot at doubling his price tag next summer.  Spence could be a waiver-exemption roster casualty in camp but after logging nearly 20 minutes a game in limited action last season, he has earned a longer look.  It’s a bit early to forecast his next deal but as someone that was quite productive in the minors and did well in his first NHL stint, he’s someone that could be poised for a considerable jump on his second deal.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Jaret Anderson-Dolan ($750K, RFA)
F Lias Andersson ($750K, RFA)
D Alex Edler ($750K, UFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Trevor Moore ($1.875MM, UFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM, UFA)
F Gabriel Vilardi ($825K, RFA)
F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)

Potential Bonuses
Edler: $750K

Moore is coming off a breakout year that saw him more than double his previous career-high in points while establishing himself as a fixture on the second line.  At this point, both sides will want to see how things go next year; a repeat performance could put him closer to the $3.5MM to $4MM mark while a dip closer to his career averages would knock at least a million off of that range.  Lemieux quickly re-signed after being non-tendered but will need to establish himself as more than just a fourth-line energy winger if he wants an opportunity to really get to that next salary tier.  Wagner spent all of last season in the minors but could be back on the fourth line at some point.  Otherwise, all but $8.3K can be buried in AHL Ontario if he clears waivers again.

Among the younger forwards, Vilardi was quite productive with AHL Ontario last season but didn’t produce much with the Kings, just seven points in 25 games.  That got him a one-year bridge deal.  At this point, he’s likely to break camp as he’s now waiver-eligible but this could be a make-or-break year with several other youngsters in the pipeline.  Andersson and Anderson-Dolan are in similar situations, players who are also now waiver-eligible and haven’t produced much to date in the NHL.  Until they can establish themselves as regulars, they’ll be going year-to-year on their deals.

Edler was once again limited due to injuries last season but he did well in a supporting role when he was in there, resulting in a one-year extension.  At 36 and with his injury history, he’ll be going year-to-year on similarly-structured deals for the rest of his career.

Quick has been a fixture between the pipes for the Kings for more than a decade.  Heading into last season, his contract looked like a considerable overpayment for someone that was expected to be pushed down into the second-string role.  However, he then went out and became the 1A option once again which changes the outlook of his contract considerably.  Quick will be 37 when his next contract is signed so he will likely be going year to year moving forward but if he can even keep a grab of a platoon spot, he should have some interest on the open market in the $3.5MM range next summer.  Will he be willing to leave Los Angeles, however?  That one remains to be seen.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Carl Grundstrom ($1.35MM, RFA)
F Anze Kopitar ($10MM, UFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($1.675MM, RFA)
D Jacob Moverare ($762.5K, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($3.125MM, UFA)
D Sean Walker ($2.65MM, UFA)

Kopitar has been the top center for the Kings for most of his 16-year career and even if he hasn’t produced at the level of a high-end pivot, his defensive play has made him a true number one.  However, he’ll be 37 two years from now and the days of him logging over 20 minutes a night should be done by then.  His next contract could very well be his last and should be either two or three years with an AAV closer to the $6MM mark as long as he can still play at a second-line level by the end of the 2023-24 campaign.

A new team was just what Arvidsson needed as he had a nice bounce-back year after a pair of quiet seasons at the end of his tenure with Nashville.  He fit in nicely on the second line, one that was very effective defensively, good offensively, and carried plenty of possession.  Continuing that combination for the next two seasons would give him a good chance of adding another million or so on his next contract.  Lizotte just wrapped his first full NHL season on the third line which understandably resulted in a short-term second contract.  He’ll need to establish himself as capable of playing a bit more than 12 minutes a night by 2024 as otherwise, he could be one of those arbitration risks that teams are opting to walk away from more frequently.  Grundstrom has provided the Kings with plenty of physicality, albeit in a limited role and with the look of their roster right now, his short-term fortune isn’t likely to change.  That could put him in the same situation Lemieux was last month, getting non-tendered to avoid arbitration.

Roy has never been a particularly flashy defenseman which is what made this deal – originally a four-year pact – a bit of a head-scratcher at the time.  However, he continues to be a reliable role player and he stepped up quite nicely when injuries arose last season.  As is the case with Bjornfot, his limited offensive upside will limit the price tag of his next contract but there’s room for him to add a little more to his current AAV.  Walker missed all but six games last season due to a knee injury and has been used as a fifth defenseman when he has played over the last couple of years.  As teams look to trim costs by going with more cost-effective depth players, that could be a challenge for Walker unless he can step into a top-four role.  Moverare is now waiver-eligible and with him signed for two years at the minimum, he’s a risk to be claimed off waivers so he’ll likely enter the season as their seventh defenseman although that’s not great from the perspective of his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Alex Iafallo ($4MM, UFA)
G Calvin Petersen ($5MM, UFA)

Iafallo is the ideal winger in the sense that can play different roles and succeed in all of them.  That type of versatility can be quite valuable to a team and he has done well in that role with the Kings.  On the other hand, with some wingers feeling the pinch in recent UFA contracts, this also now looks like a bit of an above-market contract.  The financial landscape should change by the time this deal is up though so the valuation of the contract might be different a couple of years from now.

Petersen signed this contract a year ago as an extension to his now-expired deal so this will be his first year with the weight of expectations that a deal like this carries.  Instead of being a second option making less than a typical backup, he’s now tied for 14th in AAV among all NHL goaltenders despite having just 91 career regular season games under his belt.  If he can wrestle back the starting role and play 50-55 games a season, they’ll get good enough value out of this deal but that’s a bigger question mark now than it was a year ago.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $88,531,333 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts:

F Dylan Holloway (two years, $925K)

D Evan Bouchard (two years, $863K)

D Philip Broberg (two years, $863K)

As talented as the high-end players on the Oilers are, the team also possesses a number of exciting young players and prospects. A key player in Edmonton’s continued success is Bouchard, a talented two-way defenseman who had a breakout 2021-22 with 12 goals and 31 assists in 81 games, all career-highs to-date. This season, Bouchard could see increased time at the point on the powerplay. Bouchard’s 2022-23 will have a strong influence on what his next contract looks like, a further breakout setting him up for big money on his next deal, more than likely a bridge for what will be a 23-year-old defenseman.

The eighth-overall pick in 2019, Broberg made his NHL debut last season, getting into 23 games, tallying three points. At 6’3 and 199 pounds, Broberg brings good size to a two-way style of play and should figure to see regular NHL minutes this year. Having two years remaining on his ELC, the 21-year-old will focus on continuing to develop his game to succeed at the NHL level before turning to his next contract in the summer of 2024.

Another of Edmonton’s promising young players, and another former first-round pick, Dylan Holloway made his NHL debut last season in the playoffs, getting into just one game. Though he has virtually no NHL experience, a solid AHL debut last season (22 points in 33 games) and a tight cap situation in Edmonton set the soon-to-be 21-year-old up well to play regularly in the Oilers lineup this season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry Level:

F Jesse Puljujarvi ($3MM, RFA)*

F Derek Ryan ($1.25MM, UFA)

F Mattias Janmark ($1.25MM, UFA)

F Devin Shore ($850K, UFA)

D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)

D Slater Koekkoek ($925K, UFA)

G Stuart Skinner ($750K, RFA)*

G Mike Smith ($2.2MM, UFA)

* – Puljujarvi and Skinner will both be arbitration eligible

The most intriguing name on this list is no doubt Puljujarvi, a name that was featured heavily in trade rumors this offseason. Evaluating the player Puljujarvi is and what he is worth is an interesting proposition and one that he and the Oilers will have to chew on over the next year or so, and if they cannot decide, that may simply be up to an arbitrator. The former fourth-overall pick didn’t have the start to his career he and Edmonton had hoped for, but after returning to the NHL, he began to find a rhythm, scoring a career-high 36 points this season. If he wants big money, he’ll have to take another step forward this season, but even if Puljujarvi simply repeats, Edmonton will have to accept his legitimate market value. Given the tricky negotiations this summer, seeing the two sides head to arbitration next offseason wouldn’t necessarily be a shocking turn of events.

Ryan, Janmark and Shore all represent a similar brand of player: depth forwards who can play all 200 feet on the ice. All three also come at a particularly affordable price tag and with Edmonton facing tough cap decisions in the coming years, having pieces like these are incredibly valuable. Still, a team with this cap situation may have to sacrifice some veteran depth in lieu of younger, even more affordable talent. This won’t be an issue for Edmonton given the group of young players coming through their system. It’s unlikely any of these three will increase significantly in value this year, so should the team choose to keep one or two around, the door should be open.

Koekkoek, much like the three veteran forwards, is an important depth piece for the Oilers who could give way to younger talent. The 28-year-old is one of four left-handed defensemen on the active roster behind Broberg, Brett Kulak, and Darnell Nurse (Klefbom is likely headed to LTIR) and figures as the team’s seventh-defenseman. With Smith’s expected retirement (likely LTIR this season), Skinner slots in as the Oilers’ backup goaltender. Skinner is somewhat of an exciting option in the role, entering his age-24 season, he has been a highly-regarded prospect in Edmonton’s system and has just 14 games of NHL experience, though he’s impressed in that span.

Signed Through 2023-24:

F Kailer Yamamoto ($3.1MM, RFA)*

F Warren Foegele ($2.75MM, UFA)

D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)

Yamamoto has had an up-and-down career so far, but has the potential to be another among Edmonton’s group of dynamic forwards. After a pair of relatively unimpressive NHL stints as a 19 and 20-year-old, Yamamoto broke out with a strong 26 points in 27 games in 2019-20 and appeared to be another weapon for the Oilers, however he regressed to just 21 points in 52 games the year after. This season, the playmaking winger seemed to rebound with 41 points in 81 games, his 20 goals a career-high, but it still wasn’t the performance 2019-20 saw from him. Now almost 24, Yamamoto signed a two-year, $3.1MM contract this offseason. His performance on this deal will likely dictate whether he is viewed as the star many believed he could be, or a solid option for secondary offense in a team’s middle-six.

At 26, Foegele has established himself as a reliable secondary scorer and gritty two-way winger. Traded to Edmonton for Ethan Bear last summer, Foegele continued to bring his effective game over from Carolina. Although he’s not the most exciting player on the Oilers, Edmonton has two years remaining of a valuable role-playing forward that just about every Stanley Cup Champion seems to have at least one of. As the Oilers look to secure a Cup of their own, Foegele will play a key piece.

A longtime Colorado Avalanche star, Tyson Barrie struggled after being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2019-20. After that season, Toronto let him walk and Barrie signed a one-year deal in Edmonton. That turned out to not only be a great decision for Barrie, but also for Edmonton. The veteran defenseman rebounded strongly in 2020-21, recording 48 points in 56 games. He wasn’t as dynamic this year, with just 41 points in 73 games, but nonetheless found himself a key contributor in Oil Country. As Edmonton works around their cap situation, Barrie could be a casualty, more likely traded as opposed to bought out (if at all), given their depth of offensive talent on their blueline, specifically in that of Bouchard. Should he finish his deal in Edmonton, he may price himself out, especially if he continues to impress as one of the league’s highly-regarded powerplay specialists.

* – Yamamoto will be arbitration eligible

Signed Through 2024-25:

F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM, UFA)

D Cody Ceci ($3.25MM, UFA)

Frankly, there’s not much to say about Draisaitl. One of the game’s very best players with a very good chance to be Hall of Fame bound when all is said and done, his three years at $8.5MM per season isn’t cheap, but represents some of the best value in the NHL today. The German-born forward will spend those next three years trying to add a Stanley Cup to his resume and continue to build value for when he hits the UFA market just a few months before turning 30.

Like some other players on this list, Ceci has had himself a bit of an up-and-down career. Prior to the 2020-21 season, the Pittsburgh Penguins signed him to a one-year deal, where he took a big step forward, becoming a reliable shut-down defenseman in Pittsburgh. The Penguins ultimately let Ceci walk, however, and he signed in Edmonton on a four-year, $13MM contract.  The contract was met with some skepticism, however Ceci continued his impressive play, showing his resurgence was no fluke. Now a part of the organization’s long-term plans, Ceci becomes part of a formidable right-side alongside Barrie and Bouchard.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer:

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)

F Zach Hyman ($5.5MM through 2027-28)

F Evander Kane ($5.125MM through 2025-26)

F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125MM through 2028-29)

D Brett Kulak ($2.75MM through 2025-26)

D Darnell Nurse ($9.125MM through 2029-30)

G Jack Campbell ($5MM through 2026-27)

Put simply, the Oilers have their core locked-up for a longtime. Looking at it one way, having seven roster players signed for at least the next four years, including arguably the best player in the world, puts a team in an enviable position, setting them up for several runs at the Stanley Cup. On the other hand, one could say it handcuffs the team in salary cap for at least that duration, preventing it from making any substantial moves to take another step. With Edmonton, that issue is ripe for debate.

In the first instance, the team has McDavid and Draisaitl together for the next three seasons guaranteed, cementing one of the greatest duo’s in league history. Add to them a top-pair defenseman in Darnell Nurse as well as secondary scoring in Hyman, Kane, and Nugent-Hopkins, all signed at least through the three-year window the organization has with the two superstars. Another asset the team hasn’t had in their recent history is a true number-one, All Star goaltender, which they now have signed long-term as well in that of Campbell. Even if the situation is less than ideal several years from now, the organization has all the pieces to make a few runs at a championship now, not to mention a pipeline of younger players, many of whom are still in the development stages.

From the other lens, the Oilers only have Draisaitl signed for three more seasons, who will then be due a massive raise, and McDavid for four more seasons, who may also be due a raise from his $12.5MM AAV. The players signed with real length are Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, and Nurse, all of whom are talented, but aren’t the front-line stars that McDavid and Draisaitl are. Their cap hits, especially Nurse’s, could actually serve as roadblocks to extending the two superstars, and even if not, it may prevent the team from keeping their younger players or replacing others when their deals expire.

Ultimately, if the team can bring home a Stanley Cup, the poor cap situation it might find itself in down the road won’t be as sore of a subject – just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, this analysis is looking ahead and projecting, and though a Cup or two makes things look better, when mapping out a salary cap structure over the next decade or so, one can guarantee the money, but not the championship.

Buyouts:

F James Neal (three years, $1.917MM)

D Andrej Sekera (one year, $1.5MM)

Retained Salary Transactions:

F Milan Lucic (one year, $750K)

Still To Sign:

F Ryan McLeod

This year was McLeod’s first full NHL season, recording 21 points in 71 games, with a brief stint in the AHL mixed in. The 22-year-old was one of Edmonton’s more important bott0m-six forwards and figures to play a prominent role with that group for years to come. Because he had just 21 points this season, and only one in 10 games in 2020-21, he won’t see too much of a raise over his ELC, however seeing as Edmonton is already over the salary cap and only has around $300K to offer once Klefbom and Smith are put on LTIR, finding a way to squeeze McLeod’s contract in will be a challenge regardless of the cost.

Best Value: Leon Draisaitl

Worst Value: Darnell Nurse

Looking Ahead:

Considering how little space the Oilers have to re-sign McLeod and the LTIR being used, they figure to have trouble managing the cap this season, limiting the flexibility they will have. But, with the talent the team possesses, few would blame them for believing they could utilize the group they have in front of them now to pursue the Stanley Cup.

Since the team has its core locked in for the most part over the next three years, they’ve set themselves up well, at least to avoid losing any key pieces while their window is open. When the salary cap ceiling increases in the next coupe of seasons, the organization will find increased financial flexibility, however much of this may be needed to re-sign their big two up front. Overall, the short-term future, even if complicated and with slim margins, is very promising for Edmonton, primarily having two of the league’s best players as a part of that payroll. The long-term projection does look a little troublesome in five or six years, but may be worthwhile so that Edmonton can open it’s window wide for a few seasons right now.

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