Salary Cap Deep Dive 2022

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

February 25, 2023 at 12:03 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

Over the past several months, PHR has looked at every NHL team and given a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond. This is the final piece of the series. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $88,851,650 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Pontus Holmberg (one year, $827.5K)
F Nicholas Robertson (two years, $796.7K)

Potential Bonuses
None

Robertson has been viewed as one of Toronto’s top prospects for a few years now. However, injuries have limited him significantly in the pros and he’s out for the rest of this season after undergoing shoulder surgery. The Maple Leafs frequently use bridge contracts and he’s a very strong candidate to get one. If he returns to health and produces, it could be around the $1.5MM mark but it’s likely to come in below that. Holmberg fit in nicely in Toronto’s bottom six and is playing his way into consideration for a full-time spot beyond this season although he’s back in the minors for the time being. Even so, with their cap situation and Holmberg’s limited NHL experience, a short-term bridge deal around the $1MM range is where his next deal should fall.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Joey Anderson ($750K, RFA)
F Zach Aston-Reese ($840.6K, UFA)
D Jordie Benn ($750K, UFA)
F Michael Bunting ($950K, UFA)
F Pierre Engvall ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Justin Holl ($2MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alex Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Victor Mete ($750K, RFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($1.875MM, UFA)*
G Ilya Samsonov ($1.8MM, RFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($900K, UFA)

*-St. Louis is retaining 50% of O’Reilly’s cap hit ($3.75MM) and Minnesota is retaining an additional 25% ($1.875MM).

Kerfoot’s hold of a roster spot in Toronto has seemingly been in question for about three of his four years with the team but it’s not because he has a bad contract by any stretch. He’s on pace to push for 40 points again which, coupled with his ability to play center and the wing, should have him earning another million or so on his next deal, one that’s likely to be for more years than this four-year agreement he’s finishing now. Engvall is a capable depth forward but hasn’t shown the ability to produce consistently. Since he doesn’t kill penalties too frequently either, his market might not be the strongest. He could get something close to this amount but not considerably higher. Kampf isn’t much of a scorer himself but with him being good on faceoffs and killing penalties, there should be a market for him that should land him a multi-year deal closer to the $2MM (or even $2.5MM if enough teams show interest.).

Then there are the newcomers. O’Reilly has had a tough year this season but has a long and proven track record as a key two-way player. At 32, he still should be able to land a sizable agreement on a multi-year deal but it’s likely to be for at least a couple million less than his base $7.5MM AAV unless he has a big finish to his season with Toronto; he’s off to a good start on that front. As for Acciari, he had a nice bounce-back showing in the bottom six with St. Louis before the swap and, as a player who can hold his own on the third line or anchor the fourth, can kill penalties, plays with an edge, and win faceoffs, he’ll have a stronger market than he did last summer which should lead to a multi-year agreement and an AAV closer to the $2MM mark at least.

Bunting is going to be a particularly intriguing case to follow. He has been one of the top bargains in the NHL these last two years, providing top-six production for depth forward money. Even with what’s still a limited track record, there are enough comparable deals that could realistically push his asking price past the $5MM mark on a long-term agreement. Is that one Toronto will be able to fit into their salary structure? That’s one of the questions they’ll certainly be pondering. Aston-Reese didn’t have a strong market last summer and likely hasn’t done enough to change that so he should stay in this price range. Simmonds, if he plays another year, will be at the league minimum while Anderson should wind up there as well.

Holl might not be a top-end defender but he has held his own while logging around 21 minutes a night this season. He’s also a right-shot player, the handedness that’s always in high demand. While he was a depth defender early on in his time with the Leafs, that’s not the case now and he could add at least $1MM on his next contract which could very well price his way out of Toronto. Benn and Mete both signed minimum deals back in July and their markets haven’t changed significantly since then. Mete is arbitration-eligible once more but because he has 247 career games under his belt, he’s likely to be non-tendered to avoid that risk.

Samsonov chose to sign with Toronto in the hopes of rebuilding his value. That decision has worked out rather well so far as he is staking claim to the starting role. We’ve seen the price tag for young goalies with limited experience go up considerably lately (Samsonov has less than 130 NHL appearances even including the playoffs) and it’s plausible that his next deal could push past the $5MM mark.

Signed Through 2023-24

D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
D Mark Giordano ($800K, UFA)
D Timothy Liljegren ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Auston Matthews ($11.64MM, UFA)
G Matt Murray ($4.688MM, UFA)*
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Sandin ($1.4MM, RFA)

*-Ottawa is retaining an additional $1.5625MM (25%) on Murray’s deal.

It has been widely expected for several years now that Matthews will set the new standard for the highest AAV in the NHL when he signs his next contract. It’s not a matter of if he’ll pass Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6MM starting next season) but by how much. He has been the top goal-scorer in the NHL in the past two seasons and even in a bit of a down year this season, he’s still averaging over a point per game. Matthews will hit the open market at the age of 26 when he’s clearly in the prime of his career. Top centers rarely make it to free agency and if he’s going to be the rare exception, there will be plenty of interest, even at a record-setting price tag.

What happens with Matthews could very well dictate if Toronto can afford to re-sign Nylander as well. He cracked the 80-point mark last season for the first time and is playing at a 95-point pace this year. One more season around that type of production and it’s quite possible that the AAV on a max-term deal for him will push past the $10MM plateau as well. Even if there’s a jump in the Upper Limit by then, keeping both players will be tricky.

Muzzin has spent most of the season on the injured list and there are questions about his ability to return, not only this year but beyond that. He has been ruled out for the rest of 2022-23 as expected, but unless they know that Muzzin isn’t coming back period, any other moves they make will also be limited to rentals. At this point, it doesn’t seem likely that the veteran will be able to command anywhere near this type of money if he is able to come back. As for Brodie, he continues to be a mobile and steady veteran that can kill penalties, log big minutes, play on both sides, and chip in with a few points. Nothing flashy but that type of role is one that’s always in demand. He’ll be 34 when he hits the open market but even so, a deal similar to his current one (four years at $5MM per season) could be doable.

Sandin showed a fair bit of offensive upside in the past and slowly but surely, he’s starting to produce a little more in Toronto. He’s on his bridge deal now, one that carries a $1.6MM qualifying offer. Assuming he continues to develop and starts to push his way into more playing time, he should be able to more than double that with arbitration rights. Liljegren is in a very similar situation although his offensive upside hasn’t been viewed as high as Sandin’s. But otherwise, both players are gradually improving and are trending toward eventual top-four roles. Liljegren’s qualifier checks in at $1.5MM next summer and he, too, should double that at least if he continues to progress. Giordano accepted a contract that was well below market value to stay with his hometown team. If he was to sign another deal, it’d be for his age-41 season and at that point, he’s likely to be around the minimum salary once again.

Murray has had flashes of dominance mixed in with struggles and injuries which is what happened in his previous stops with Ottawa and Pittsburgh as well. When he’s on his game, he’s a capable starting goaltender but the inconsistency will hurt him. When he signed this contract, Murray was viewed as a goalie on the rise. That shouldn’t be the case in 2024 where he’s likely to be viewed as more of a mid-tier netminder. The market rate for those types of players is closer to the $4MM range.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mitch Marner ($10.903MM, UFA)
F John Tavares ($11MM, UFA)
D Conor Timmins ($850K in 2022-23, $1.1MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25)
G Joseph Woll ($767K, RFA)

Tavares certainly hasn’t played poorly since joining Toronto as he’s averaging just under a point per game in his five seasons with the team but that’s not a great return on one of the priciest UFA deals in NHL history either. The flattened salary cap – something that couldn’t have been foreseen at the time this deal was signed – has also exacerbated the effect of this contract on their cap situation. That all said, he’s still a very important piece for the Maple Leafs but if he’s going to sign a second contract with the team, it will need to be for considerably less than this to fit what their financial outlook is likely to be if they keep their other core pieces.

Marner has been one of the top-scoring wingers in the league for the last several seasons. Over the last five years, only one – Artemi Panarin – has more points than he does. With the cap set to be higher in 2025, it stands to reason that he could take aim at setting the new benchmark for a contract for a winger; Panarin checks in at $11.643MM. Marner will be 28 when this contract kicks in so it’s pretty much a lock that he’ll be securing a max-term agreement if he wants it on the open market.

Timmins was picked up early in the season from Arizona and has done quite well in a limited role which earned him the extension earlier this month. If he can lock down a full-time spot and continues to produce, his next contract could be more than double what he’ll start getting next season.

Woll doesn’t have much NHL action under his belt but with two years left at an AAV that will be below the league minimum next season, he’s the odds-on favorite to be the backup at some point during that stretch. Exactly when that permanent promotion comes will go a long way toward determining how much his next contract will be. If he’s established by then, it could be as high as the $3MM range.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

February 8, 2023 at 7:43 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $89,574,031 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Nick Perbix (one year, $842.5K)

Potential Bonuses
Perbix: $82.5K

Perbix has already signed an extension so we’ll cover that later on. His bonuses are games-played based and typically require 80 games to max out. However, there are generally a few tiers for bonuses at this price point so he should receive some of this amount. With Tampa Bay into LTIR, whatever Perbix earns will come off their cap next season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Rudolfs Balcers ($750K, RFA)
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($3MM, UFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
D Callan Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)

Killorn’s future with Tampa Bay has seemingly been in question for a while now with the team having to cut from its veteran core each season. Those questions will only intensify now as it’s hard to see how they can afford to keep him. The 33-year-old has a chance at beating his career high in points (59, set last season) which would at least help him hit the open market on a high note. He should be able to get a small raise on a medium-term agreement. Namestnikov also appears to be unlikely to return as he hasn’t fit in during his second stint with the team. He’ll also be hard-pressed to match his current AAV unless he can turn things around down the stretch. Perry and Bellemare are low-cost veterans that Tampa Bay will either want to retain or bring in someone else to replace them at likely a slightly lower cap charge if possible. If they look elsewhere, they’d be in line for similar contracts to what they’re on now.

On the RFA side up front, Colton will be in line for a sizable raise. He potted 22 goals last season and has a chance at 20 this year. Notably, he’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility which could push his next contract past the $3MM range. He’s an important part of their bottom six but they might have to get creative to keep him around. Balcers was picked up off waivers earlier this season and he tested the UFA market last summer after being bought out. Another minimum-priced contract should be coming his way which could keep him around for another year in Tampa Bay.

On the back end, Cole is arguably having a better year than he did last season with Carolina, logging his highest ice time since 2018-19 in the process. Having played on one-year deals for the last two seasons now, he might have a shot at a multi-year agreement at a price tag that’s close to this one. Foote still hasn’t been able to quite lock down a full-time spot in the lineup which will hurt his case even with arbitration eligibility. He should be able to push past the $1MM mark but his next deal shouldn’t be much more than that, even if they decide to tack on a second season.

Elliott has put up numbers that are hovering near the league average this year which is a good return on one of the cheapest goalie contracts in the league. But he turns 38 in April and is going to be going year-to-year from here on out. On merit, he’s worthy of at least a small raise but if he wants to stay with the Lightning, it’ll have to be at this price point at most. With how their roster is structured, Tampa Bay simply can’t afford a more expensive backup netminder.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($762.5K, UFA)
F Brandon Hagel ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($1MM, UFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55MM in 2022-23, $1.4MM in 2023-24, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos isn’t really slowing down and has provided a lot of value on this contract as he continues to be a focal point of Tampa Bay’s attack. Accordingly, he has positioned himself for a raise on his next deal if he wants to go after top dollar. In that case, he could land an eight-digit AAV, especially with 2024 pegged as the summer for the Upper Limit to jump up by a fair-sized amount. But if he wants to stick around with the Lightning, this feels like a situation where he could accept a longer-term contract to help try to bring the cap hit down somewhat relative to market value. Such a deal would take him closer to age 40 which isn’t necessarily ideal but it would keep the price tag closer to where it is now which would allow them to keep the core around as long as possible.

The Lightning paid a sizable price to land Hagel thanks to what has quickly turned into one of the bigger bargains in the league. If he continues to score around his current pace, he could make a case to quadruple his current price tag. Even with a higher cap at that time, it might be tough for them to keep both Hagel and Stamkos around. As for Maroon, he’s a fourth liner at this point and will be 36 when he hits the open market. That will likely keep him around this price tag two years from now.

Let’s get Seabrook out of the way quickly. You might have forgotten that he’s here now instead of in Chicago but his situation hasn’t changed as his playing career has come to an end. He will remain on LTIR until this deal expires which means that Tampa Bay is going to have regular cap space for a few more years.

Myers came over during the summer in the Ryan McDonagh trade and while many expected him to be bought out to give Tampa Bay a cap credit, he was instead extended at this lower price. Their cap situation has Myers in the minors right now but if he can lock down a regular spot next season, he could be able to land a deal a bit closer to what he’s getting this year. Bogosian has had a limited role when healthy this season and is more of a depth defender at this point. A deal around what he’s getting now is where his market should fall. Fleury, meanwhile, has had a very limited role and until he can establish himself as a regular, his value is going to remain at or near the minimum salary.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM, UFA)
D Nick Perbix ($1.125MM from 2023-24 through 2024-25, UFA)

Hedman has been Tampa Bay’s top defenseman for the better part of the last decade and hasn’t shown much in the way of signs of slowing down. At a time when top rearguards are landing more than $10MM when they’re eligible for free agency, he has been a nice bargain for the Lightning and should continue to be for the rest of the deal. When it’s up, his playing time should be starting to dip which could keep his AAV close to this one, especially if he re-signs. Perbix has been a pleasant surprise this season which earned him this low-cost extension not too long ago. It’s a low-risk proposition as if Myers or someone else passes Perbix on the depth chart, the deal can be buried in the minors without any lingering cap charge.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Erik Cernak ($2.95MM in 2022-23, $5.2MM from 2023-24 through 2030-31)
F Anthony Cirelli ($4.8MM in 2022-23, $6.25MM from 2023-24 through 2030-31)
F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
F Nick Paul ($3.15MM through 2028-29)
F Brayden Point ($9.5MM through 2029-30)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8MM in 2022-23, $8.5MM from 2023-24 through 2030-31)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5MM through 2027-28)

Kucherov has been one of the elite wingers in the NHL for several years now but is only tied for the fifth-highest AAV in the league among wingers (and will slide further down the list over the next few seasons). At 29, there’s no reason to think he doesn’t have several more high-end years left in him so this should be a relative bargain for the foreseeable future. Point is a legitimate number one center and at 26, he’s in his prime. He doesn’t pick up the points like Kucherov does (few do) so his deal isn’t as below-market as his frequent linemate but having a top middleman locked up for this long gets one of the foundational pieces in place for the long haul.

Cirelli’s numbers are down this season although he continues to be one of the stronger defensive forwards in the league. If he can lock down the second center spot, the Lightning will get good value here. If he remains more of a secondary option (which could happen early on with most of the core set to return next season), this deal might be a bit pricey at the beginning unless he’s able to get closer to the 50-point mark. Paul was viewed as likely a straight rental but they were able to work out a long-term deal to keep him around at a higher-end third line rate. He’s producing a bit above that this year and as long as that continues, they’ll do well with this deal.

Sergachev has slowly been improving each season and has found another gear this year, emerging as a legitimate top-pairing defender. While he will need to maintain his current level of production to justify this price point, there’s certainly reason for optimism that he’ll be able to do so. It could be suggested that he’s already close to becoming their number one defender and when that does happen, he’ll be making less than market rate for someone in that role. Cernak is a valuable shutdown defender that can play some heavy minutes defensively. At his current price tag, they’re getting good value. At $5.2MM though, that’s a bit of a premium to pay for that type of player. Perhaps there’s a bit more offensive upside there but if that doesn’t happen, this could be a bit of an above-market contract.

Vasilevskiy has been an elite goaltender for several years and even in a bit of a quieter season as this one has been for him, he still has been well above average. Yes, he’s paid well above the league average for a starter but he has played well enough to earn that type of payday. It’s possible that he slows down a bit toward the end of the deal but that shouldn’t be a concern for a while. They’ll be paying a premium at this position but they’re getting bang for their buck.

Buyouts

F Vincent Lecavalier ($1.762MM through 2026-27, cap-exempt)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Hagel
Worst Value: Myers

Looking Ahead

There has been a reason why GM Julien BriseBois has been suggesting that his team isn’t likely to be active at the trade deadline. They just don’t have a lot of LTIR room remaining, not even enough for a player making the league minimum. They might be forced to try to get a team to retain on a minimum contract. When you’re in that situation, it’s hard to take a big swing on the trade front.

For next season, they have over $75MM in commitments even after backing out Seabrook’s deal which will once again be on LTIR. They’ll have at least five roster spots to fill (likely one or two more to be safe) with what’s left so that doesn’t give them enough flexibility to try to keep Killorn in the fold barring a trade. There has long been an expectation that the extra veteran depth would slowly be broken up and that has started with past trades of Tyler Johnson and McDonagh. That trend is likely to continue for 2023-24 and beyond.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators

January 16, 2023 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Hit: $79,572,602 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mark Kastelic (one year, $821.7K)*
F Shane Pinto (one year, $925K)
D Jake Sanderson (two years, $925K)
F Tim Stutzle (one year, $925K)*

*-Have already signed a second contract

Potential Bonuses
Pinto: $600K
Sanderson: $925K
Stutzle: $2.5MM
Total: $4.75MM

Pinto is healthy after missing almost all of last season due to a shoulder injury and he’s off to a decent start with ten goals already. That also has him on track to hit one of his ‘A’ bonuses worth $150K each but a small uptick in production could add to that total. With a limited track record (he had just 17 games in his first two seasons), he might be tricky to lock up long-term; a bridge deal in the high-$2MM/low $3MM range depending on the term is where he could wind up. We’ll look at Stutzle and Kastelic’s new deals later on but it’s worth mentioning that Stutzle is on pace to hit all four of his ‘A’ bonuses which are worth a total of $850K. Ottawa will need to budget room for that to hit the books after the season if they look to add a piece to help them get back into the playoff picture that pushes them closer to the cap.

Sanderson’s first professional season has gone quite well as he has very quickly become one of their most trusted blueliners. He’s someone that they’re likely going to want to sign to a long-term second contract as well and optimistically, if he follows the same path as Thomas Chabot, a deal around his $8MM might be possible. He’s tracking towards reaching all four of his ‘A’ bonuses as well.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Erik Brannstrom ($900K, RFA)
F Derick Brassard ($750K, UFA)
F Alex DeBrincat ($6.4MM, RFA)
F Dylan Gambrell ($950K, RFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($3MM, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Tyler Motte ($1.35MM, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($3.667MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.5MM, UFA)

DeBrincat was Ottawa’s first big splash this past offseason as they picked him up from Chicago on draft day. He is a bargain from a cap perspective relative to his output with the Blackhawks but that’s about to change. He’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his $9MM salary this season also represents his qualifying offer. At that point, he’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility for the first time and be a year away from UFA eligibility. GM Pierre Dorion made the move with the hope that he’d be able to get the 24-year-old to commit to a long-term extension. Such a move is going to cost somewhere around that qualifier on a max-term agreement which would make him the highest-paid player on the team.

Watson hasn’t been able to get back to the goal totals he had with Nashville but he has been a regular on Ottawa’s fourth line for the past two-plus seasons while providing them with plenty of grit. He’s near the ceiling of what a player in that role can typically get on the open market but another contract around this price range is doable. Motte didn’t get the contract offers he was looking for early in free agency and had to eventually settle for this one-year deal. His production has been limited early on so instead of perhaps looking more favorably on the type of offer he turned down in July next summer, his next deal might also check in around this price point.

Gambrell is a serviceable fourth liner but he hasn’t brought much more to the table beyond the ability to cover eight to ten minutes per game. This isn’t overly pricey for someone in that role but his arbitration eligibility could work against him next summer as it’s unlikely they’ll want to give him that option. Accordingly, an early contract around this price tag like they did last offseason could happen once again. Otherwise, he’s a non-tender candidate. Brassard had to settle for a PTO, one that he got converted into a full contract. He’s giving the Senators a pretty good return on that early on but at this point of his career, he’s likely to be in the six-figure or PTO range on any future contracts.

Hamonic is no longer the core stay-at-home defender he was with the Islanders but he’s a reliable veteran in his own end that can still be effective on the third pairing and penalty kill. There’s still a role for those types of players but he’ll be hard-pressed to make this much on the open market next summer. Holden has had a much more limited role this season which is closer to the role he has had for long stretches of his career – more of a prototypical sixth defender. At 35, it’s hard to envision a multi-year agreement coming his way and teams feel that he is starting to slow down, he might have to accept a bit less than his current price tag. Brannstrom wanted a multi-year deal in the summer but it failed to materialize. It seems unlikely that they’ll get one done in 2023 as well as his playing time has been considerably more limited. With arbitration rights, he should be able to get a bit more than his $945K qualifying offer but it should be another short-term agreement since he still hasn’t been able to establish himself as a productive option on Ottawa’s back end.

Talbot was acquired from Minnesota to try to shore up the goaltending and while he got off to a bit of a tough start with injuries not helping things, he has settled in nicely as their starter. However, he’ll turn 36 just after free agency opens up and a long-earned reputation as more of a platoon player is going to still exist. There’s still some room for a small increase – a two-year deal around the $4MM range is certainly possible – but a long-term deal that makes him a concrete starter isn’t likely to happen.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Parker Kelly ($762.5K, RFA)
D Nikita Zaitsev ($4.5MM, UFA)

Kelly has become a capable fourth liner that kills penalties and plays with a physical edge and even while he doesn’t produce much offensively, he still provides a fair bit of value as someone that’s on a minimum contract. Assuming he stays in that role through next season, Kelly should be able to jump past the $1MM mark with arbitration rights but his limited production will certainly limit his earnings upside.

Zaitsev is a contract the Sens are very much interested in moving. He cleared waivers already this season and it’s likely he’ll be back on there at some point. He can still fill a limited role if need be but players like that are typically closer to the $1MM mark, not four times that amount.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Anton Forsberg ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Claude Giroux ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Mark Kastelic ($821K in 2022-23, $835K in 2023-24 and 2024-25, RFA)

Giroux opted to head home in free agency on what amounts to a bit of a team-friendly deal for someone that’s still capable of playing on the top line when needed. He has fit in nicely in a secondary scoring role and is giving them a good return so far. However, he’ll be 37 when this contract is up so his next one, if there is a next one, is quite likely to check in considerably cheaper than this one. Kastelic has become a serviceable fourth liner and having one of those that doesn’t make much more than the league minimum is always good. If he sticks in that role throughout the contract, he’ll position himself to get past the $1MM mark with arbitration rights in 2025.

Forsberg had a strong showing in 2021-22 and really gave Ottawa some stability between the pipes. He was rewarded for his efforts with this deal, one that will hold up well as long as he’s able to play in a platoon and put up reasonable numbers. Those numbers aren’t as good so far this season but relative to the rest of the league, he has been close to average which, for this price tag, isn’t a bad return. He didn’t have a long track record when he signed this contract but that should change after this one. If Forsberg does well in this role, he could add another million or more even as a platoon goalie on the open market.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

F Drake Batherson ($4.975MM through 2026-27)
D Thomas Chabot ($8MM through 2027-28)
F Mathieu Joseph ($2.95MM through 2025-26)
F Joshua Norris ($7.95MM through 2029-30)
F Tim Stutzle ($8.35MM through 2030-31)
F Brady Tkachuk ($8.206MM through 2027-28)
D Artem Zub ($2.5MM in 2022-23, $4.6MM from 2023-24 through 2026-27)

It’s clear that Ottawa has wanted to try to keep the top cost of their core players around the $8MM mark. Stutzle’s deal is a bit on the high side based on his production at the time he signed it but as is often the case with contracts like these, they’re banking on it becoming a team-friendly one a few years from now. With the improvement he has shown so far this year, it looks like that will be the case. Tkachuk took a while to sign this one with the RFA deal actually coming in-season but he’s a power forward that’s producing at a top-line level. As long as he’s doing that, this will be a below-market contract.

Norris had a breakout year last season, cementing himself as a top center and this price tag for a number one pivot in the prime of his career should hold up well. Of course, things haven’t gone well to start the season as injuries have limited him to just five games but they’re hoping to have him back at some point in the second half which would be a big boost to their playoff hopes. Batherson’s deal carried a bit of risk at the time it was signed since he only had 99 career NHL games under his belt and just 23 goals. However, he has hovered around the point-per-game mark since then and anytime you’re getting top-line production for second-line money, that’s a bargain. He could be looking at a hefty raise if that continues over the next few years. Joseph played quite well after being acquired from Tampa Bay at the deadline last season which got him this contract. However, he has been more of a tertiary scorer this season, a role he had with the Lightning. Someone in that role should be closer to half this amount and it wouldn’t be surprising if Dorion was open to moving Joseph in the hopes of freeing up a bit of cap room.

Chabot doesn’t get the type of attention some of other the top blueliners in the league do but he is an all-situations player that is routinely near the league lead in ATOI. Offensively, the 55 points he had in 2018-19 might seem like an outlier but his point-per-game paces since then have been close to that total. On the open market, he’d command a few million more per season. Zub’s extension was just signed recently. It’s a move that gives Ottawa some stability on the right side of their back end. With his limited offense, it might seem a tad on the pricey side at first glance but he does a lot of things away from the puck that makes him one of their most important defenders.

Buyouts

D Michael Del Zotto ($500K in 2022-23, $750K in 2023-24)
D Dion Phaneuf ($354K in 2022-23)
F Bobby Ryan ($1.833MM through 2023-24)
F Colin White ($850K in 2022-23 and 2023-24, cap credit of $625K in 2024-25, $850K from 2025-26 through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

G Matt Murray ($1.563MM through 2023-24)

Best Value: Batherson
Worst Value: Zaitsev

Looking Ahead

It has been a tough year for Ottawa in the standings, one that not many would have seen coming. The good news is that, unlike a lot of Eastern teams, they have ample cap space to take a swing and add to their roster now rather than having to wait until March. Between that and Norris returning, they could get themselves back in the mix. If they don’t do that, they could be a possible third-party broker team at the deadline.

Beyond this season, there isn’t a lot of flexibility left for a little while. DeBrincat’s next contract could check in around the $10MM mark which would eat up more than half of Ottawa’s 2023-24 cap space with the team still needing to re-sign or replace another goalie and eight to ten skaters. That makes it more pivotal that they can try to get out of some of their underperforming contracts in the near future.

Ottawa’s rebuild has yielded a promising young core group that pretty much are all locked up through their prime. That’s not going to leave much wiggle room to augment things down the road but if their core group continues to progress, the Senators should be much stronger in the near future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens

December 11, 2022 at 7:51 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $93,451,094 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Cole Caufield (one year, $880.8K)
D Kaiden Guhle (three years, $863K)
D Jordan Harris (one year, $842.5K)
F Juraj Slafkovsky (three years, $950K)
D Arber Xhekaj (two years, $828.3K)

Potential Bonuses
Caufield: $850K
Guhle: $420K
Harris: $507.5K
Slafkovsky: $3.5MM
Total: $5.2775MM

Slafkovsky has the richest entry-level deal in league history as the ceilings got a small boost this season (and will go up again in 2024 and 2026). The first-overall pick has had a limited role so far as they ease him with a decision on whether or not to run him past the 40-game mark and accrue a season of service time still to come. If he can become the impact power forward they hope he can be in the next couple of seasons, he’s a strong candidate to bypass the bridge deal. With the limited usage, he’s unlikely to achieve any of his bonuses at this point.

Caufield’s next contract is shaping up to be an intriguing one already. He recently reached 100 career NHL regular season appearances but has been one of the top goal-scorers in the league dating back to midway through last season. If Montreal wants to sign him to a max-term agreement (which they likely do at this point), they’ll have to make him the highest-paid forward on the team (and in franchise history) while a bridge contract could run in the range of Jason Robertson’s $7.75MM with Dallas. Notably, he still is five years away from UFA eligibility so a four-year bridge deal (like Robertson’s) is a legitimate option for both sides to consider. He’s on pace to reach all his ‘A’ bonuses.

Guhle hasn’t been eased into things in his rookie season, logging more than 20 minutes a night, often on the top pairing. If he stays in that role, he’s likely to hit his two ‘A’ bonuses this season and if he continues there for the next couple of years, he’s someone GM Kent Hughes will likely want to try to lock up long term. Harris, meanwhile, already is in line for a new deal after burning his first season down the stretch last year. He’s likely heading for a bridge contract with an AAV likely checking in a bit below the $1.5MM range while he’s on pace to hit his two ‘A’ bonuses and most of his ‘B’ ones for games played. Xhekaj has gone from being an undrafted free agent signing a year ago to a regular in Montreal’s lineup on the third pairing. Having burned the first year while playing in junior last season, he’ll be hard-pressed to command a long-term second deal and is likely heading for a bridge contract himself, potentially a little above the $1.5MM mark if he remains a fixture on the third pair.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Paul Byron ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($5MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Sean Monahan ($6.375MM, UFA)
F Michael Pezzetta ($750K, RFA)

Calgary had to pay a high price tag (a first-round pick in either 2024, 2025, or 2026) to dump the final year of Monahan’s deal, allowing them to sign Nazem Kadri in the process. He has recovered well from the hip issues that plagued him over the last couple of years and is at his highest point-per-game pace since 2018-19. As a capable defensive forward that can kill penalties and do well at the faceoff dot, it’s certainly not impossible to think that he could get some interest as a second-line center on the open market this summer. If that happens, there’s a good chance that Monahan could land a contract similar to this one, a scenario that not many would have thought possible at this time a year ago.

Drouin hasn’t panned out as expected when Montreal sent Mikhail Sergachev (plus a conditional second-round pick that didn’t materialize) to Tampa Bay to secure him. He has the skills to play in the top six but hasn’t been able to produce with consistency or stay in the lineup with any consistency. He’s a prime candidate for a one-year pillow value elsewhere next season to try to rebuild some value in a new situation. Dadonov was picked up from Vegas in exchange for Shea Weber’s LTIR contract with the Canadiens likely hoping that they could flip him with retention at the trade deadline. Instead, he’s off to the worst start of his career offensively. His next deal could be closer to the $2MM mark if not a bit lower and at that point, it’s possible that he could look to return to the KHL if a significant offer materializes there.

Byron’s availability to play this season is in question as he continues to battle hip trouble. If he’s able to play next year, Byron would be eligible for a one-year deal with incentives due to his injuries (even though he’s not 35); such a contract would likely have a base salary closer to $1MM before bonuses. Pezzetta is on his first career one-way contract and has had a limited role so far. Assuming that continues, even with arbitration rights, it’s unlikely he’d be able to land more than $1MM for next season.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Joel Edmundson ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM, UFA)
G Samuel Montembeault ($1MM, UFA)
F Rem Pitlick ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($762.5K, UFA)

Hoffman was expected to help Montreal’s power play but that hasn’t been the case over his first year and a bit with the team to the point where he was scratched earlier this season. He’ll need to produce with much more consistency in the back half of this deal to have a shot at matching this price tag in 2024. Pitlick played well after coming to the Canadiens on waivers last season, earning this two-year deal, his first one-way pact. However, some early struggles landed him on the waiver wire again this season where he passed through unclaimed. Barring a change in his production, he’ll be in tough to match let alone beat this contract two summers from now.

Edmundson has battled injury trouble this season and last but when he has been in the lineup, he has been a dependable second-pairing option that can kill penalties and play physically. There’s a ceiling for those types of players in terms of their earnings upside but a small raise closer to the $4MM mark on a multi-year agreement could be doable if he’s able to stay healthy as he’ll hit the market at 31. Wideman is on a minimum deal for the second straight season and has a very limited role. In his second stint in the NHL, he’s more of a depth player so it’s likely that his next deal will also be close to the minimum salary.

Montembeault’s first full NHL season was a rocky one with Montreal struggling mightily last season. That allowed the team to give him a low-cost two-year commitment that could be fully buried in the minors. However, he’s off to a much better start this season and is starting to push for a little more playing time. He’s making well below the league average for a backup and a decent showing the rest of the way this season and next could push him closer to the $1.75MM range at least. Otherwise, he might be looking at something closer to this deal, a lower-cost one-way pact on a cap-strapped team.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Jake Allen ($2.875MM in 2022-23, $3.85MM in 2023-24/2024-25, UFA)
F Joel Armia ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Christian Dvorak ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Jake Evans ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Johnathan Kovacevic ($766.7K, UFA)
D David Savard ($3.5MM, UFA)

Dvorak was acquired to replace Jesperi Kotkaniemi in the 2021 offseason with the hopes that he could become a legitimate second-line center. That hasn’t happened yet. Instead, he appears to be heading for another season around the 30-point mark. His defensive game and faceoff ability give him some extra value but if this type of production is indeed his ceiling, he’s going to be in tough to get more than this on the open market. A similar contract is possible but even in a pricier cap environment, it’s hard to see him pushing for $5MM.

Armia’s strong showing in Montreal’s improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final strengthened his market to the point where he was able to land this commitment. Since then, he has 16 points in 76 games. Armia can kill penalties but he’s more of a fourth liner that should have a price tag closer to half of his current one. Evans had a strong year last season with 28 even-strength points in a bottom-six role but his playing time has been more limited this year. If he can get back to pushing for 30 points in that lower spot on the depth chart, he could generate enough interest to push his AAV past the $2MM mark in 2025.

Savard is playing a much bigger role than he was used to at the end of his time with Columbus (and a brief stint in Tampa Bay) as he sits second on the team in ATOI. Right now, they’re getting some value for their buck but he’ll turn 35 early on his next deal and at that point, Savard will likely be best suited for a third-pairing role. That should push his price tag down a little bit. Kovacevic was claimed off waivers late in training camp and has played in most of Montreal’s games since then. It’s still a bit early to forecast what’s next as he’s a late-bloomer rookie but if he plays more often than not on this deal, he could have a shot at doubling his AAV on the open market. If Kovacevic turns into a full-time regular, the cost will only go up.

Allen has had some ups and downs since effectively taking over as the starter last season, a role he struggled with when he had it in St. Louis. Even with the inconsistency, what he’s making now is well below market value for a starter and on his next contract, as long as he can hold down a regular spot in the platoon, Montreal should get a reasonable return on it as well.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

F Josh Anderson ($5.5MM through 2026-27)
F Kirby Dach ($3.3625MM through 2025-26, RFA)
F Brendan Gallagher ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
D Mike Matheson ($4.875MM through 2025-26)
G Carey Price ($10.5MM through 2025-26)
F Nick Suzuki ($7.875MM through 2029-30)

A year ago, Suzuki’s deal looked like it might be an overpayment early on but he has since become a quality top-liner that has shown some chemistry with Caufield. Montreal will be hard-pressed to use this contract as their high point for forwards but he’s a core piece of the puzzle that’s locked up on what could be a team-friendly deal within a short amount of time. That’s not the case with Gallagher. His extension seemed too pricey and too long when it was signed and his performance since then has only backed it up. At this stage of his career, Gallagher is better off in a more limited role and that’s going to make it very difficult for him to produce at a level that’s commensurate with that price tag. This has the potential to become an anchor contract and, as a result, he could be a buyout candidate down the road if his production continues to dip.

Anderson has only put up more than 32 points once in his career while only reaching 20 goals once as well. At face value, this deal would thus appear to be an overpayment. However, we know the premium that is given to power forwards and even as an above-market contract, it’s one that Montreal should be able to move. Dach’s trade was an interesting one with Chicago rebuilding and, in theory, a 21-year-old center is the type of player that they’d typically want to keep. However, they opted for a change of scenery and Montreal elected to do a longer bridge deal that still maintains his RFA eligibility at the end. The early returns have been impressive although he’s on the wing now instead of playing down the middle. How high his next contract goes will be dictated by whether he can produce consistently and if he can get back to being a regular center, his value will only go up from there.

Matheson was once viewed as a key cog of Florida’s future but later became a cap dump to Pittsburgh. His value improved with Pittsburgh to the point where the Canadiens opted to pick him up in the Jeff Petry trade. He’s at his best in more of a sheltered role and that’s not one he’s going to have on a back end that dresses at least three rookies a night. If his offensive improvement holds and he becomes a dependable veteran whenever the Canadiens emerge from their rebuild, a small raise could be achievable.

Price’s playing future appears to be in serious jeopardy. He didn’t play at all last season and isn’t expected to this year so he remains on LTIR. Early retirement isn’t a realistic option as he’s still owed more than $23MM in salary over the next three years so he’ll remain on LTIR until this deal runs out.

Buyouts

D Karl Alzner ($833K through 2023-24)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Allen
Worst Value: Gallagher

Looking Ahead

The Canadiens have enough LTIR flexibility to work with to make them a team to watch for closer to the trade deadline. If they can’t find takers for some of their pricier expiring contracts, they still might be able to utilize their cap room in the form of being a third-party facilitator where they’d acquire a player and then immediately flip him with cap and salary retention as we’ve seen some teams do in recent years.

Turning to next season, Caufield will be in line for a significant raise but with some of their big-ticket expirings coming off the books, they’ll have room to afford it along with the seven-figure carryover bonus penalty that’s coming their way since they’ll finish the year over the cap and in LTIR. They should also have a bit of flexibility to try to add another veteran piece if they’re ready to come out of their rebuild at that time.

From a longer-term perspective, Hughes will have his work cut out for him as several of their poorer-value contracts are on the books for a couple more years at a minimum. Finding a way to move one or more of those out would certainly clear up their cap picture but with teams being less willing to take on pricey contracts now, that will be a task that’s much easier said than done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers

December 1, 2022 at 7:54 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $85,265,406 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Spencer Knight (one year, $925K)
F Anton Lundell (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Knight: $1.85MM
Lundell: $850K
Total: $2.7MM

Lundell had a very nice rookie season, establishing himself as a key two-way center in a hurry. He has been a bit quieter offensively to start this year but he still looks to be on track to be a part of their top six before too long. At that point, the price tag is going to get expensive quickly. A bridge deal could fall in the $4MM range as things stand and it will be difficult for them to work out a long-term agreement with their cap situation. At the moment, he’s on track to hit two of his ‘A’ bonuses ($425K in total).

We’ll dig into Knight’s next contract later but it’s worth highlighting here that $850K of his bonuses are ‘A’ ones and he’s on pace to hit four of those to max out. There’s a good chance at least some of those will have to roll over and be charged against the cap next season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Josh Mahura ($750K, RFA)
F Eric Staal ($750K, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($750K, UFA)
F Colin White ($1.2MM, RFA)

Hornqvist came over in 2020 from Pittsburgh in a trade that hasn’t aged well. The veteran had a good first season but has slowed down considerably to the point where he’s basically a fourth liner now. If he gets another deal after this, it’s likely to be closer to the $1MM mark with perhaps some potential bonuses as well. White was bought out by Ottawa and wanted to find a team that could give him a real role. So far, it looks like he made the right pick as he has been quite productive in the bottom six. If that continues, he’ll be well-positioned to more than double his price tag in arbitration. However, that could be a risk they don’t want to take. The oldest of the Staal brothers, Eric didn’t play at all last season and was only able to secure a PTO deal, one that lasted a couple of weeks into the year. If he gets another contract, it’ll be at the minimum as well.

Gudas is best known for the physicality he brings but he also can log top-four minutes while contributing positive possession numbers as well. As a right-shot defender, his market might be stronger than some expect next summer which should allow him to add at least a million to his current AAV on another multi-year agreement. Mahura was a waiver claim from Anaheim and has secured a spot on Florida’s third pairing. He’s not dominating but the fact he’s in there regularly gives him a chance to push for something closer to the $1MM mark with arbitration rights next summer. As for the defender among the Staal brothers, Marc likely left some money on the table to join Florida as he can still play on the third pairing and kill penalties. If he’s chasing a Cup, he’ll keep playing around this price tag. If not, he could creep past the $1MM mark next summer as well.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Nick Cousins ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($2.667MM, UFA)
F Eetu Luostarinen ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($6.5MM, UFA)

Reinhart’s first season with the Panthers was a very successful one as he set new career highs across the board while producing more like a top-line center. However, he has struggled this season with numbers more in line with his first couple of years with Buffalo. If he can get back to the point-per-game mark, he can easily add a couple million per year on a max-term agreement if not a bit more than that. But if he goes back to producing more like he did with the Sabres, he might have a hard time commanding much more than what he’s getting now.

Duclair had a career year last season, really emerging as a consistent impact top-six winger for the first time. But lots of players had those performances last season with Florida and have stepped back a bit. In Duclair’s case, he has yet to play due to a torn Achilles and it’s an injury that will take a lot of time for him to get back up to speed once he does come back, forcing Florida’s hand from a salary cap perspective in the process. Realistically, it’s not going to be a good season when it comes to assessing what his next deal will be. Instead, the pressure will be on in 2023-24 when he’ll be at full strength to start the year that will allow him to show if his 58 points last year were the outlier or a sign of things to come.

Luostarinen established himself as a full-time regular for the first time last season which earned him this bridge deal. So far, he has improved upon his performance from last year and if he can become a 35-point player that moves up and down the lineup, doubling his current price tag could be doable. Cousins has bounced around a lot in recent years and his value on the open market is pretty much established at this point. He might have left a bit of money on the table to get a two-year commitment but what he’s making now should be close to his market value in 2024 as well.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Sam Bennett ($4.425MM, UFA)
D Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Carter Verhaeghe ($4.167MM, UFA)

The Panthers took a gamble that Bennett had more to provide offensively as they acquired him back in 2021. He took off quickly with Florida and quickly inked this contract. For a power forward that can also play down the middle in a pinch, it would be a bargain as long as he stayed in the top six. That has certainly been the case so far as he set career highs across the board last year and is on pace for similar production this season. With the going rate being so high for impact power forwards, Bennett’s certainly on a below-market deal by a couple million at least.

Florida had Verhaeghe on a very below-market deal until this season. Even now, it’s still a very team-friendly contract. He has broken out offensively since joining Florida, becoming one of their most consistent scoring threats while seeing time on the top line. He’s getting paid well below what someone in that role with that type of production typically gets. It’s not as big of a bargain as it was before but it’s still a very good one. The price tag for this type of production might put him past $7MM when this deal is up.

Ekblad’s contract was at one point the richest given to a defenseman coming off an entry-level contract in NHL history; that has since been surpassed multiple times. When healthy, he is a legitimate all-situations top defender and with the market rate for that type of player jumping up as much as it has, he’s a good bargain for them as well. But staying healthy has been a challenge as he has missed significant time in each of the last three seasons (including this one). There’s still plenty of time for that to change and if he stays healthy the last couple of years, his AAV could jump past the $10MM mark next time around.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

F Aleksander Barkov ($10MM through 2029-30)
G Sergei Bobrovsky ($10MM through 2025-26)
G Spencer Knight ($4.5MM from 2023-24 through 2025-26, RFA)
F Matthew Tkachuk ($9.5MM through 2029-30)

I think we’ve finally passed the point where Barkov can no longer be considered underrated. He’s a legitimate star two-way center in this league and GM Bill Zito paid up to make sure that he’s not leaving Florida anytime soon. $10MM per year for a proven star center is around what the going rate is so they’ll have him on at least a market-value contract for a long time. Zito then paid up big to land Tkachuk in the offseason. Last year was the only time he’d reached the point-per-game mark so, from a production standpoint, there was a bit of risk. However, star power forwards in their prime don’t become available often so it was one worth taking. The fact he’s producing at a higher pace this year certainly makes it look like this will be a good contract for them for a while.

That same thing can’t be said about Bobrovsky. When he was with Columbus, he had the ability to steal games. That hasn’t happened anywhere near often enough with Florida and he has struggled mightily this season. His numbers are currently at a level where if he was a pending free agent, it would be fair to question if he could get another contract. Instead, he’s on the books for a long time yet. Knight’s extension seemed a bit pricey and premature for someone that entered the season with a 2.74 GAA and a .909 SV% in 36 career appearances. It’s quite possible that he’ll live up to that price tag if he’s able to fully wrestle away the number one job but it’s a move that’s a new market-setter in terms of paying a goalie that has pretty limited NHL experience.

Buyouts

G Scott Darling ($1.183MM in 2022-23)
D Keith Yandle ($5.392MM in 2022-23, $1.242MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Forsling
Worst Value: Bobrovsky

Looking Ahead

There’s a short-term pressure point on the horizon as Duclair is a few weeks away from returning and they can’t activate him as things stand as they don’t have enough cap space to do so. Accordingly, Florida is a team to watch for on the trade market as they’re likely going to have to move a contract in a market where it’s not all that easy to clear out money. Depending on who goes, they might be able to bank a little bit of space in the second half but for the most part, this is basically their roster for the season.

The good news is that there’s a bit of relief ahead as they’ll free up more than $5MM on the cap next season simply from dead money coming off their books. That will comfortably cover Knight’s extension while the likely departure of Hornqvist will allow them some extra flexibility to round out their roster. Things should be a bit better going forward for them as a result. However, with Reinhart, Forsling, and Montour expiring in 2024, Zito will have to budget accordingly in his 2023 spending to make sure he’ll still have room to re-sign or replace those players a year later.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings

November 24, 2022 at 7:16 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Hit: $78,240,646 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jonatan Berggren (two years, $925K)
D Moritz Seider (two years, $863K)
F Elmer Soderblom (three years, $878K)
F Lucas Raymond (two years, $925K)
F Joe Veleno (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Raymond: $2.5MM
Seider: $850K
Soderblom: $82.5K
Veleno: $425K
Total: $3.875MM

Raymond made an immediate impact on the Red Wings last season, quickly establishing himself as an impact scorer, something that has carried over in the early going this year as well. GM Steve Yzerman has typically been hesitant to commit long-term contracts off of bridge deals but the winger is a candidate to be an exception. A bridge deal could push past the $5MM mark while a long-term agreement could come closer to the $8MM range if he progresses in the second half of his contract. His ’A’ bonuses are likely to be reached ($850K in total) while the others are less likely. Veleno has locked down a regular role in the lineup but in a limited role. Assuming that continues, he’s someone that will likely receive a short-term second contract that should fall around the $1.75MM to $2MM mark.

Soderblom broke camp with Detroit and immediately became the tallest player in the NHL. When healthy, his role has been limited so far which makes it difficult to project his second contract. Assuming he remains in the bottom six for the next couple of years, he should check in close to what Veleno’s next deal will be. Berggren has done well in his limited action so far while being up on injury recall but is a candidate to go back to the minors as others return. As such, a short-term deal for close to the minimum (with a higher two-way salary or even a one-way pay) is his likely outcome.

Seider made quite the impression last season, quickly becoming Detroit’s top defenseman while taking home the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year. He’s off to a bit of a slower start this year but is still doing quite well all things considered. His contract is another case where Yzerman may have to deviate from the usual standard of going with a bridge deal. A short-term pact could resemble Rasmus Dahlin’s three-year, $18MM pact (likely higher with the salary cap being higher in 2024 than it is now) while a longer-term deal could put him in the range of Miro Heiskanen’s $8.45MM AAV (again, to be adjusted to the cap percentage at that time). He’s a safe bet to hit his four ‘A’ bonuses as well.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Tyler Bertuzzi ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Adam Erne ($2.1MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($800K, UFA)
G Magnus Hellberg ($750K, UFA)
F Dylan Larkin ($6.1MM, UFA)
D Gustav Lindstrom ($850K, RFA)
F Matt Luff ($750K, RFA)
D Olli Maatta ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($3MM, UFA)
D Jordan Oesterle ($1.35MM, UFA)
D/F Mark Pysyk ($850K, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Pius Suter ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Jake Walman ($1.05MM, UFA)

Decision time is fast approaching on what to do with Larkin. The captain seemed like a logical candidate for an early extension back in the offseason but clearly, the two sides are far enough apart that such a move couldn’t be reached. He’s a strong candidate for a max-term agreement (eight years with Detroit if he signs before free agency, seven years elsewhere) with an AAV that should push him past the $8MM mark. Bertuzzi is another player they have to decide on but staying healthy has been an issue already this season which complicates things. When he’s on, he plays at a 30-goal level which is worth upwards of $6MM on the open market on a long-term deal. But if he can’t stay in the lineup, his market won’t be as strong. While a short-term contract in unrestricted free agency isn’t ideal, it’s an option he might have to consider if things don’t go well this year; such a deal would likely come with a small raise from what he’s making now.

Suter’s per-game numbers aren’t far off what they were in his rookie season with Chicago. While those don’t jump out off the page, he looks primed to hit the market at 27 with a more proven level of production and an ability to play both center and the wing. There’s bound to be a strong market as a result which could push him into the $4MM range. Sundqvist hasn’t been able to crack the top six but has settled in the last few years as someone that can contribute from the third line. He also plays both center and the wing and can kill penalties but the limited production will limit his earnings upside. Even so, he has a good enough track record to add half a million or so on his next deal.

Erne hasn’t quite been able to live up to the offensive upside he showed a couple of years ago although he remains a physical presence in the bottom six. If a team or two thinks they can unlock the production, he could add a few hundred thousand to his AAV while if not, a similar contract to his current one is possible. Luff was injured shortly after being recalled and is a strong candidate for a one-year, two-way deal at the NHL minimum once again.

Maatta came to Detroit with the hopes of rebuilding his value after a few tough seasons. So far, so good on that front as he’s logging a little over 20 minutes a game while being on pace for 30 points which would narrowly beat his career high. Even so, his struggles before that should limit his market somewhat. If he stays at this level of play, a jump into the $3.5MM range could be possible for him. Oesterle hasn’t been able to lock down a regular spot in the lineup with Detroit and barring any changes in that situation over the rest of the season, he’s likely looking at a deal closer to the league minimum next summer.

Walman recently returned from injury and is looking to secure a full-time role in the lineup. If he can do that, a small raise should be on the table for him. Lindstrom is a depth player who can’t crack either special teams role which isn’t ideal. He’s owed nearly $1MM on his qualifying offer and it shouldn’t take much more than that to sign him for next season. Hagg and Pysyk both signed their deals last summer and there’s no reason to think their markets will drastically change for next July, especially with Pysyk having missed all of this season so far due to a torn Achilles tendon.

This has not been a good contract year for Nedeljkovic who has struggled mightily this season to the tune of a 4.33 GAA and a .873 SV%, numbers that are among the worst in the league. His track record is still rather limited (just 94 regular season games) which complicates things. If these struggles continue, he’s likely to land a one-year deal somewhere in the hopes of rebuilding his value. If he can turn things around a bit, a medium-term agreement around this price point isn’t impossible. Hellberg has bounced around this season without playing a whole lot. Those don’t help his cause for his next deal which, at this point, shouldn’t cost much more than his current one. If he can find a way to get into a few games at least and hold his own, that could push him closer to the $1MM mark.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Filip Hronek ($4.4MM, RFA)
F Dominik Kubalik ($2.5MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Michael Rasmussen ($1.46MM, RFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($5.25MM, UFA)

Vrana’s case is going to be difficult to predict as he has played just twice this season before entering the Player Assistance Program. Last season, he was injured for most of the year. When available, he has been quite effective since joining Detroit, with 22 goals and 10 assists in 39 games. But coming off what’s likely to be two limited seasons, can he realistically command much more than he’s getting now? Perhaps on a short-term deal but there may be some hesitance to work out a long-term agreement. Perron won’t have that question as he’ll be 36 by the time his next contract starts so his will be a short-term deal no matter what. If he continues to hover around the 60-point range, he could garner a small raise.

Kubalik’s hot start might not be fully sustainable but as long as he can hold down a top-six role, he’ll outperform this contract. If he can play near this level for this season and next, he could command more than $6MM on the open market. But that’s a big if based on what transpired over his time with Chicago which makes it difficult to forecast what his next contract will be based on his previous volatility in production. Rasmussen is on his bridge deal now and is very slowly but surely starting to assert himself more. Even if he stays on the third line, he could have a shot at doubling this price tag in 2024 and if he can move up higher in the lineup with some regularity, something closer to the $4MM range is doable.

Hronek’s future with Detroit was in question over the summer although he’s still with them now and is still logging big minutes while being off to the best start offensively of his career. He’ll be owed a $5.28MM qualifying offer when this deal is up while being one year away from unrestricted free agency. If he produces close to the 35-point level he has been at in the past, a long-term deal around $6MM could come his way. If he can sustain his current level of production, however, add a couple million per season onto that.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Robby Fabbri ($4MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Filip Zadina ($1.825MM, RFA)

When healthy, Fabbri has been a quality second liner since joining Detroit in 2019 which is what helped earn him this contract last season. Unfortunately, staying healthy has been a challenge, especially when it comes to his knees as he’s battling issues there for the third time in his career already. Ultimately, his next contract will come down to whether or not he can overcome yet another surgery and get back to his previous level. If so, a raise is definitely possible but if not, his price could drop a fair bit. Zadina’s bridge deal gives everyone more time to evaluate if he’s a core player of the future for this team or not. The early returns weren’t great before he suffered a lower-body injury but there’s lots of time for that to change. It’s worth noting that his qualifying offer in 2025 will be $2.19MM with arbitration rights.

Husso came to Detroit this summer in the hopes of establishing himself as a legitimate starting goalie. So far, so good on that front. While it’s still very early and he has just 70 regular season games under his belt, he’s young enough to command a long-term deal if he stays in that role. In that scenario, he should be able to pass the $6MM mark at a minimum.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Ben Chiarot ($4.75MM through 2025-26)
F Andrew Copp ($5.625MM through 2026-27)

Copp broke out offensively last season and in doing so, pushed his price tag considerably higher than many expected considering it was the only year that he put up at least 40 points. Of course, he brings other elements to the table (physicality, defensive play, and generally, a good showing on faceoffs) but the question will be if he can produce like a second liner. If so, they’ll do well with this deal. But if he goes back to being more of a 35-point player, this will quickly become an above-market contract.

Chiarot is a player whose market value always seems to exceed his analytical value. We saw it with his last contract with Montreal, the high price Florida paid to rent him at the trade deadline, and then the deal Yzerman gave him back in July. As long as he can hold down playing 20 minutes a night while playing his usual style, Detroit should be happy with this deal. But given how physical he is and his age (currently 31), can he hold up for four years? If not, the back end of this contract might hurt a little bit.

Buyouts

F Justin Abdelkader ($2.305MM in 2022-23, $1.055MM from 2023-24 through 2025-26)
F Frans Nielsen ($500K in 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Richard Panik ($1.375MM in 2022-23)

Best Value: Kubalik
Worst Value: Copp

Looking Ahead

Detroit’s cap situation this season is a little better than the number listed at the beginning of the article when you consider that they’re carrying 29 players at the moment. As some return, others will go to the minors and more space will open up. They’re well-positioned to absorb their likely bonuses and if they can hang around the playoff mix, they’ll be in way better shape than most buyers when it comes to being able to afford upgrades at the trade deadline.

Their core is going to get a lot more expensive soon. Larkin needs to be re-signed or replaced at a rate that will be a couple million higher than what he’s at now. Seider and Raymond’s second contracts should add at least $10MM to their books in 2024 and considerably more than that if they get long-term agreements. However, they’ve at least hedged against that with few current long-term commitments (less than $23MM on the books for 2024-25 at the moment) which gives Yzerman considerable flexibility to keep and add to his core over the next couple of years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

November 18, 2022 at 6:50 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $65,105,451 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dylan Cozens (one year, $894K)
F Peyton Krebs (two years, $863K)
F John-Jason Peterka (three years, $856K)
D Owen Power (two years, $917K)
F Jack Quinn (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Cozens: $850K
Krebs: $412.5K
Peterka: $82.5K
Power: $925K
Quinn: $850K
Total: $3.1195MM

Cozens did well last season in his first full NHL campaign, checking in at just under half a point per game while he’s doing a little better than that this year. He has positioned himself for a bridge deal that would start in the $3MM range but knowing what GM Kevyn Adams has done in terms of trying to lock up some core pieces lately, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sabres try to work out a long-term agreement that could be closer to twice that amount while buying out some UFA years. Krebs came over as part of the Jack Eichel trade last season and while he’s holding down a regular spot in the lineup, he has yet to score in 15 games this year. While he’s still certainly part of their future plans, it’s looking likely that he’ll be heading for a bridge contract.

Quinn was dominant in the minors last season and expectations were somewhat high for him this year. He hasn’t been overly productive in the early going but it’s only the first year of his contract. A lot could change in the next couple of years which could make him a target to skip the short-term second deal and go straight to the long-term one. Peterka has been quite effective in a middle-six role this year and while he doesn’t have quite the fanfare that Quinn (or even the other two entry-level forwards) has, he could skip the bridge deal if he’s able to lock down a full-time spot in the top six over the next couple of seasons.

Power hasn’t scored yet this season but that’s about the only small blemish. He’s already averaging nearly 24 minutes per game and playing in all situations. This is the type of profile that typically signs a long-term second contract and we’ve seen the high end of that scale hit $9.5MM recently. Power has a long way to go to get to that level for sure but if he lives up to the hype, he’ll be a very expensive rearguard before too long.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

G Craig Anderson ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Rasmus Asplund ($825K, RFA)
G Ben Bishop ($4.917MM, UFA)
F Anders Bjork ($1.6MM, RFA)
D Casey Fitzgerald ($750K, RFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.2MM, UFA)
F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Lawrence Pilut ($750K, UFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM, UFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($950K, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Anderson: $500K

After some underwhelming years offensively, expectations were somewhat low for Okposo the last couple of years but he had a nice bounce-back season in 2021-22 and is off to a good start this year. $6MM for the captain is certainly out of the question at this stage of his career but a multi-year agreement around half of that doesn’t seem as outlandish as it might have been just a couple of seasons ago. Girgensons has been around for a long time (this is his ninth season) but gone are the days when the hope was that he could eventually move into the top six. He’s a checking forward now that can play both center and the wing. There’s value in that type of player but he shouldn’t cost much more than what he’s making now though another multi-year deal should come his way.

Hinostroza earned this raise on the heels of one of his stronger NHL performances last year but he remains more of a tertiary scorer that plays in the bottom six. His market hasn’t been the strongest in the past so it’s hard to forecast much of a raise for his next potential trip to the open market. Bjork hasn’t been able to establish himself with Buffalo and actually cleared waivers last month. With a $1.8MM qualifying offer on the horizon, he looks like a strong non-tender candidate at the moment. That can’t be said for Asplund who has turned into a quality defensive winger that can chip in a bit offensively as well. With a couple of RFA years remaining, Buffalo could look to do a one-year deal around double his current price or push for a multi-year pact that would push his AAV past the $2MM mark. Sheahan has been on cheap one-year deals the last four seasons and there’s little reason to think that won’t be the case next season as well. At this point, the only question is if he can secure a one-way pact instead of a two-way contract.

Fitzgerald and Pilut largely fall in the same category – players that are trying to establish themselves as NHL regulars. With the former, arbitration rights could put his next deal around the $1MM mark on a one-year agreement while with the latter, he should stay around the minimum if he sticks around the NHL. Returning overseas for a bigger role is definitely a possibility as well.

Bishop is only on Buffalo’s roster on paper. His playing days are done and he’s likely to go back to Dallas next season after it was ruled he couldn’t work for them this year. If someone wants to get creative with LTIR down the stretch, he’s a potential trade candidate. Anderson did well with Buffalo last year, earning himself a raise for this season as well. He’s going to go year to year from here on out which is understandable since he’s 41 but if he’s up for playing another year, a similar-priced deal could be attainable.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Jacob Bryson ($1.85MM, RFA)
G Eric Comrie ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Dahlin ($6MM, RFA)
D Henri Jokiharju ($2.5MM, RFA)
G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($837.5K, RFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($4.75MM, UFA)

Olofsson has been a player that has been a core piece at times and seemingly on the outside looking in at others. That’s part of the reason why he has been on short-term contracts to the point where Adams opted to bridge him into unrestricted free agency. When he’s on, he produces at a top-six rate that’s worthy of this price tag. When he isn’t, he’s not. Over the next two years, teams will have a better idea of which version they’re likely to get in 2024 and will offer accordingly. Mittelstadt has been much better this season after a tough first year on this bridge deal. If he can work his way into a full-time top-six spot by 2024, his next deal could push into the $4MM range. If the early success this year is the outlier though, they’ll have a decision to make about qualifying him at $2.6MM with arbitration rights.

Dahlin is a rare first-overall pick to receive a bridge contract. The decision was certainly defensible as he was coming off a rough performance in 2020-21 and there were questions about his ability to get to his high ceiling. Since then, those questions have gone away rather quickly as Dahlin had a career year last season and has been even better this year while becoming one of the top-scoring blueliners in the league. In doing so, he has shown that he is indeed a franchise defender. With that in mind, tendering the $7.2MM qualifying offer really isn’t the next question for Buffalo – it’s how much more than that will it take to get him to stay away from testing the open market in 2025. A double-digit AAV seems quite likely at this point.

Lyubushkin’s contract seemed a bit rich when it was signed early in free agency last summer but he is filling a spot on their third pairing while playing with the physicality he has shown throughout his career. If he had enough interest back in July to command this deal, it’s reasonable to infer that there could be enough interest in him in 2024 to push this price tag at least a little higher. Jokiharju also struggled a bit in the first season of his three-year bridge deal while injuries haven’t helped things this year. When healthy, he can play in their top four so there shouldn’t be any issues qualifying him at $2.6MM; his production (or lack thereof) will determine if it’s just a small increase from there or a bigger jump toward the $4MM range. Bryson is now a regular on the back end and the goal now for him will be getting into the top four regularly. Doing that would push him close to $3MM on his next deal as it looks like his earnings upside will be somewhat limited due to a lack of offense.

Comrie came over from Winnipeg looking for a chance to play a bigger role and he has received that with Buffalo. However, the results have been mixed so far. Considering he’s making less than a lot of veteran backups, it’s certainly not an above-market contract but he will need to show some improvement if he wants an opportunity to beat that in 2024. Luukkonen is Buffalo’s goalie of the short-term future; at least, that’s the plan. With limited NHL action at this point, he’s not going to have much history to work with when it comes to contract talks. A one-year deal could be done to buy more sides more time to evaluate or the Sabres could come in with a medium-term agreement in the $4MM range that carries some risk but also some upside if he becomes a legitimate starter.

Signed Through 2024-25

None beyond the players on entry-level contracts.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Mattias Samuelsson ($925K this season on entry-level deal, $4.286MM from 2023-24 through 2029-30)
F Jeff Skinner ($9MM through 2026-27)
F Tage Thompson ($1.4MM this season, $7.143MM from 2023-24 through 2029-30)
F Alex Tuch ($4.75MM through 2025-26)

Skinner’s contract certainly hasn’t aged too well although, to his credit, he was considerably more productive last season and has done relatively well this year as well. Certainly not enough to live up to the price tag but gone are the days of him being a healthy scratch or on the fourth line. It’ll never be a bargain deal but Skinner returning to being a top-six player has helped improve their offensive depth considerably.

Thompson was the breakout star last season that few saw coming. The Sabres clearly believe it’s repeatable with the extension that they gave him. Impressively, he has been even more productive in the early going this year so if he is indeed this type of impact player moving forward, this could become a very team-friendly deal down the road. Of course, it goes without saying that a drop back to the level of performance from before 2021-22 will make this an anchor deal for a long time. Tuch also came over in the Eichel swap and is getting an opportunity to be a top-six power forward, a chance he didn’t receive too often with Vegas. The results have been promising so far and if he keeps producing, this could quickly become a very team-friendly deal.

Samuelsson’s contract raised some eyebrows considering he’s still looking for his first career NHL goal after 59 games. It’s clear they feel he’s a second-pairing player already though and shutdown players that log 20 minutes a night go on to get contracts in this range eventually. Doing so now gives Buffalo some cost certainty and if the offense comes around, it’ll be a bargain down the road. In the meantime, it’s a short-term overpayment but one they can easily fit in on their books.

Buyouts

D Christian Ehrhoff ($857K through 2027-28, no cap hit)
F Cody Hodgson (one year, $792K)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Thompson (this season’s price tag)
Worst Value: Okposo

Looking Ahead

No team has more cap space than Buffalo does this season so if they’re in the playoff hunt in a few months and have room in the salary budget, they’re well-positioned to try to add.

But this core is about to get a lot more expensive in a hurry. The summer of 2024 is the one to watch for with both Power and Dahlin needing new deals, ones that will add anywhere from $10MM to $15MM to their books depending on how they progress between now and then. Add some higher-priced deals for their other entry-level players and the spending is going to add up in a hurry. They will still have some flexibility as some of their veteran contracts expire but at that point, it’s going to come down to budget room. If the money is there and there’s room to add some impact veterans to this core, things will be looking up in Buffalo soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

November 11, 2022 at 6:47 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $84,435,581 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Jeremy Swayman (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Swayman: $150K

Swayman had a very nice rookie season that saw him serve as part of an effective platoon which was the role he was expected to play this year although an early injury has stalled that somewhat. Generally speaking, a fairly limited track record should limit him a bit on his next contract (almost certainly a bridge deal) although his camp will be using Spencer Knight’s three-year, $13.5MM extension as a comparable. Something a bit less than that could certainly be doable.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Patrice Bergeron ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Connor Clifton ($1MM, UFA)
F Nick Foligno ($3.8MM, UFA)
F Trent Frederic ($1.05MM, RFA)
G Keith Kinkaid ($750K, UFA)
F David Krejci ($1MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1.75MM, UFA)
F David Pastrnak ($6.67MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($3.1MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($1MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Pavel Zacha ($3.5MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Bergeron: $2.5MM (already reached)
Krejci: $2MM ($1MM already reached)

Bergeron and Krejci agreed to team-friendly one-year deals that gave this core one last chance to go for it but the downside is the bonus overage penalty that is on the way. You might have noticed above that $3.5MM in bonuses have already been hit while Krejci will hit another $500K within the next few weeks if he stays healthy and the other $500K is attainable if they make the playoffs which is looking likely. Both players could get considerably more on the open market if they wanted to but have made it clear they don’t want to go anywhere else. They could sign similar contracts next summer or the Bruins might have quite a vacancy to fill next summer. Right now, they’re benefitting quite nicely from these contracts with the big hit coming in 2023-24 when those bonuses will hit the cap. Zacha was brought in to potentially audition for one of Bergeron’s or Krejci’s spots a year from now but he continues to be hit or miss in the offensive zone, a trend he has had throughout his career. Still, as a young center with size, there will be lots of interest but it’s likely to come around the $3.5MM mark on a multi-year agreement.

Pastrnak is the most notable player of the many on this list. While there are some prominent wingers that are set to hit the open market this summer, Pastrnak is the best of them all (and also the youngest). Heading into the season, an extension around the $10MM mark looked possible but with the start that he’s having to his year, that feels like it could be on the low end now, especially with there being some speculation that the salary cap may jump a bit more than the expected $1MM next summer. Could Artemi Panarin’s $11.643MM (the record for a winger) be attainable? If he keeps up the current pace, he’ll have a very strong case to make to eclipse that mark on a max-term deal.

Foligno’s first season with Boston was nothing short of a disaster as he had just two goals in 64 games. To his credit, he has gotten off to a better start this season and already passed the two-tally mark but at this point of his career, he’s closer to being a fourth liner than an impact middle-six option and his market should correct accordingly next summer. Smith is usually good for double-digit goals and 30-plus points each year and is the type of player that can fit on a third line and move up in a pinch. The market for those players has really cratered in recent years so a dip in pay seems likely although he could still get a multi-year deal.

As for the other forwards, Nosek continues to be a faceoff specialist that can kill penalties and even with limited production, he’ll still have some suitors. That said, as fourth lines get cheaper, he might come up a bit short of this price next summer. Wagner is currently in the minors but as a physical energy player, he’ll have some interest in July but it’s likely to be on a deal that’s either at or a little under $1MM. Then there’s Frederic, the lone RFA in this group. He has settled in as a capable fourth liner and while that’s not a great return on a first-round pick, he should be able to get a small increase on his $1.15MM qualifying offer.

Clifton has been a role player for most of his career, working his way into a regular spot on the third pairing. Generally, that profile tends to stay around this price tag. However, he has picked a great time to take a step forward and has done well in a top-four role in the early going this season. If that holds up, he could market himself as a 28-year-old top-four right-handed defender. That could push him past the $3MM mark if the demand is high. Stralman took a PTO deal and eventually got converted to a full contract but has played sparingly this season. If that holds up, he’ll be hard-pressed to make this much on his next deal.

Kinkaid is currently on the roster because of Swayman’s injury so he gets a quick mention here. He has been a serviceable third-stringer in recent years which should allow him to get a good two-way agreement that guarantees more than half of what his NHL pay would be, similar to the deal he has now (which has a $400K AHL portion).

Signed Through 2023-24

F Jake DeBrusk ($4MM, UFA)
D Derek Forbort ($3MM, UFA)
F A.J. Greer ($762.5K, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($3.6875MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($3MM, UFA)
D Jakub Zboril ($1.1375MM, UFA)

After some prolonged stretches and a lengthy trade request that was eventually rescinded, DeBrusk is starting to produce more consistently. If he can score 25 goals this year and next (matching his 2021-22 total), he’ll be in good shape to command a pricier contract with a longer-term agreement than he has been accustomed to at this point of his career. Greer is getting his first taste of regular NHL action and is doing rather well. If that continues, he could have a chance at doubling his price tag.

Grzelcyk never really has been able to take a big step forward offensively but he has settled in nicely as a second pairing player that will chip in with 20-25 points per season on average. He’s also a strong skater which helps in this era of teams coveting mobility from the back end although, at 5’9, he’s one of the smaller defenders in the league. That might hurt his market a bit in the end but he should be able to get a bit more than this in free agency. Forbort is more of the old-school type of defender, bigger and more physical but he has had a bit more of a limited role with Boston compared to his time with Winnipeg or even Los Angeles earlier in his career. It’s possible that in 2024, he’ll be viewed more like a fifth option which would make it difficult to get as much as he is now at that time.

Reilly has been a depth defender for most of his career but turned a strong 2020-21 year into this contract, one that is on the pricey side right now. Clearing waivers notwithstanding (cap troubles mean a lot of quality players would clear), he’s someone that should settle in closer to half this price tag on the open market. Zboril dealt with injuries last season, putting Boston in a spot where they could get him on the cheap. He has been a sixth or seventh defender in the early going, similar to his usage before this season. If that continues, this could wind up being close to his ceiling in terms of his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Taylor Hall ($6MM, UFA)
F Brad Marchand ($6.125MM, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($5MM, UFA)

Marchand is another veteran that has long been on a team-friendly contract. It’s fair to surmise that he might slow down by the end of this (he’ll be 37 when he next is UFA-eligible) but even if he does, they’ve gotten enough surplus value to make up for it. It wouldn’t be surprising to see history repeat itself with Marchand taking a cheaper team-friendly one-year deal in 2025. Hall never really was able to get back to the level of his Hart-winning year with New Jersey although he has settled in as a quality second liner. This price tag is reasonable for that role and with the cap expected to be much higher by 2025, a similarly-priced contract could be achievable if he’s still playing at a similar level by then.

There was some risk cooked into Ullmark’s contract considering he had all of 117 career NHL appearances at the time and had never made 34 starts in a season. This is an expensive contract for a platoon goalie although with the way he’s playing this year, he looks like more of a true starter. Swayman will eventually cut into his playing time but Ullmark’s performance early on with the Bruins should be enough to convince a team he’s a legitimate starter which will either make him a good trade candidate in a couple of years or help him earn at least a small raise on the open market.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Brandon Carlo ($4.1MM through 2026-27)
F Charlie Coyle ($5.25MM through 2025-26)
D Hampus Lindholm ($6.5MM through 2029-30)
D Charlie McAvoy ($9.5MM through 2029-30)

Coyle has been a player that has shown flashes of legitimate top-end upside throughout his career followed by quiet stretches that hurt his value. The results were mixed in his first test at being a second-line center. In that role, his price tag is justifiable. If he’s on the wing or on the third line, it’s a little harder to find value. Krejci won’t be around much longer so he’ll get another crack playing down the middle in the top six which gives him a shot at living up to this deal.

McAvoy has blossomed into a legitimate number one defenseman and has finished in the top ten in Norris voting in each of the last three seasons. While it’s difficult to call someone on this contract a relative bargain, if his 56-point outing from last year is a sign of things to come, it’s possible that could be the case here. Lindholm came over from Anaheim at the trade deadline and quickly inked this max-term extension. It’s fair to question if his current offensive pace is sustainable (he’s averaging a point per game with his career-high in points being just 34) but it doesn’t need to be to justify this cost. This is fair value for a number two defender and that’s a role that Lindholm should be able to hold onto for a while even if the last couple of years might be a bit on the expensive side. Carlo is a dependable defensive defender that won’t contribute a whole lot offensively. Those players have definite value to a team but it’s harder for them to command pricey contracts in free agency. Unless he’s able to break through on that end over the next several seasons, his earnings ceiling might not be much higher than it is now.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Pastrnak
Worst Value: Foligno

Looking Ahead

Right now, Boston has been using LTIR to stay cap-compliant but that’s going to get trickier once Forbort is healthy as he’s the only one on there right now. At that time, GM Don Sweeney might have to get a little creative to free up the space to get back to compliance. Barring a significant injury that opens up a lot of LTIR room, it’s difficult to envision the Bruins being able to add a piece during the season unless it’s a player-for-player swap that matches money.

With the Bruins being in LTIR up to this point, they haven’t been able to bank cap space which presents a situation where most, if not all of the bonuses, will hit the cap next season. That alone will probably more than eat up any increase to the Upper Limit. That certainly won’t help when it comes to trying to afford Pastrnak’s next deal and new contracts for Bergeron or Krejci (or their replacements). They’ll get some help with some of their other expirings coming off the books but it’s still going to be a tight fit.

From a longer-term perspective, things are pretty clean as Boston only has seven players under contract for 2024-25 and beyond which will give Sweeney a fairly blank canvas with which to try to rework his core group but things will be a bit tight between now and then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

November 10, 2022 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $79,878,398 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Morgan Barron (one year, $925K)
F Cole Perfetti (two years, $894K)
D Dylan Samberg (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Barron: $850K
Perfetti: $850K
Samberg: $350K
Total: $2.05MM

Barron came over from the Rangers at the trade deadline last season and saw regular action down the stretch in a limited role. That spot in the lineup carried over to this year where he was doing well before suffering a wrist injury). Even so, he’s not likely going to produce enough to hit his ‘A’ bonuses while he’s a candidate to take a contract that’s cheaper than this one but is a one-way pact. Perfetti held his own in his first taste of NHL action last year and has impressed in the early going this season while seeing a lot of action in the top six which will give him a good chance to hit some of his bonuses (four ‘A’ ones). Notably, although he burned his first entry-level year last season, he did not accrue a season towards free agent eligibility so he’ll be five years away from UFA status. That could make him a candidate for a three-year bridge deal (or even four years) with an AAV in the $3MM-$4MM range if he’s able to stay in that role.

Samberg is looking to establish himself as a regular but has been in and out of the lineup early on. Assuming that continues, he’s also a candidate to sign a short-term bridge deal that’s cheaper than this one in exchange for a one-way pact or a two-way contract with an above-average AHL salary.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Pierre-Luc Dubois ($6MM, RFA)
F Axel Jonsson Fjallby ($750K, RFA)
F Sam Gagner ($750K, UFA)
F Saku Maenalanen ($750K, UFA)
G David Rittich ($900K, UFA)
D Logan Stanley ($900K, RFA)
F Dominic Toninato ($750K, UFA)

Dubois’ future in Winnipeg has been in question for some time and the fact he accepted his qualifying offer without even attempting to go through arbitration was telling. He has told the team that he won’t sign a long-term deal with them at this time so if nothing changes, he’s probably heading for a one-year agreement in the $7MM range. If he goes elsewhere or changes his mind, a long-term deal closer to $8MM per year is doable. As for the other four forwards, Gagner’s market was weak this summer which likely won’t change barring an offensive breakout while the other three are just hoping to establish themselves as regulars. The Jets are in a spot where they don’t necessarily have to keep this many roster spots at the minimum but if they’re able to do so, that does give them some flexibility to add elsewhere.

Stanley is still trying to establish himself as an every-game regular and while he played in 58 games last year, his ice time was still somewhat limited. He should be in a position to get more than his $1MM qualifying offer but it’s unlikely that they’ll find common ground on a long-term deal; a one-year contract that buys both sides more time to evaluate makes a lot of sense as a result.

Rittich is looking to turn things around after a tough year with Calgary last season. A rebound performance could push him closer to $2MM a year from now but if he puts up a similar performance, he may be in tough to find a guaranteed one-way contract. His stock has dropped quite a bit over the last couple of years.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Kyle Capobianco ($762.5K, UFA)
D Dylan DeMelo ($3MM, UFA)
D Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM, UFA)
F David Gustafsson ($775K, RFA)
F Jansen Harkins ($850K, UFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.167MM, UFA)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.125MM, UFA)
F Blake Wheeler ($8.25MM, UFA)

Wheeler got off to a tough start last season but to his credit, he rebounded nicely to have a productive year. However, that level of production isn’t worthy of his current cap hit but that’s also something GM Kevin Cheveldayoff likely expected at this point of the contract. He’ll be 38 when he next is eligible for free agency and while there should be some interest, it’s likely to be at half of this rate or less. The same can’t be said for Scheifele. His deal has been a team-friendly one throughout and he’ll be 31 on the open market where he could land close to a max-term agreement. He has been at or above a point per game for the last six years and while some regression will be likely in the final few seasons, it’s possible that he could push for close to $9MM in free agency, especially as the salary cap will be starting to go a bit higher by then.

Harkins’ season didn’t get off to a great start as he cleared waivers but he’s back up for the time being at least. He’s another player that is still trying to get established as an NHL regular. If that happens between now and the end of this deal, he could surpass the $1MM mark on the open market but if not, he’s someone that might have to drop down to a two-way contract. Gustavsson is a recent example of taking less than his qualifying offer to get more guaranteed money as he’s also trying to become a full-timer. So far this season, he’s holding his own on the fourth line but will need to do more than just log light minutes if he wants any sort of meaningful increase.

Dillon has been somewhat of a higher-priced stabilizer the last few years. He’s serviceable as a fourth option but in an ideal scenario, he’s anchoring a third pairing. That said, he also has a strong track record so there’s a good chance he can land a contract similar to this one both in cost and term (four years) on the open market. DeMelo is another stabilizer type although he’s one that Winnipeg hoped could play in the top four but it hasn’t played out like that. He has been a pricey number five but he’s a right-shot defender who won’t hurt a team most nights. There’s a lot of demand for that type of blueliner so he also should be able to land a multi-year agreement around this price tag in 2024. Capobianco is yet another player that’s looking to get established as a full-time NHL player (there’s a pattern with how the Jets have filled those depth spots this season) after being non-tendered by Arizona. He only made his debut with the team yesterday which isn’t a good sign. Unless something changes, he’ll be at or near the minimum once again.

Hellebuyck has led the league in saves in four straight seasons which is an impressive feat; in an age where teams have been trending towards platoons, he’s still a workhorse between the pipes. He has been quite impressive early on this year with numbers close to his Vezina-winning campaign. While signing a 31-year-old (his age in 2024) goalie to a long-term deal will carry some risks at the back end, he should have considerable interest around the league. He has made a bit above the median for a starter throughout this contract and as the Upper Limit starts to rise, there’s a very good chance that trend will continue which could put his next deal closer to the $7MM mark if not a bit higher.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mason Appleton ($2.167MM, UFA)
F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6MM, UFA)
D Neal Pionk ($5.875MM, UFA)
D Nate Schmidt ($5.95MM, UFA)

Ehlers has settled in nicely as a winger that’s going to hover around 25 goals and 60 points in a season. His price tag for that role is certainly a reasonable one. He should be someone that really benefits from the higher cap at that time; the winger market has been weaker lately but three years from now, that shouldn’t be the case which will have him well-positioned to add a million or more on his next deal which should be close to a max-term agreement. Appleton struggled last year with Seattle which resulted in a reunion with Winnipeg while this contract reflects an expectation that he can get back to performing at the level he did in 2020-21. If he does that, this contract will be just fine; otherwise, it’ll be a small overpayment.

Schmidt’s stock has dropped in recent years. After being a solid two-way threat with Vegas, he struggled in Vancouver and was a cap dump to Winnipeg a year later where he at least had a decent first year with the Jets. He needs to be around the 30-point mark to have a chance at living up to his contract and three years from now, it seems likely that he’ll be heading for at least a small dip in pay. That’s not the case for Pionk. Being four years younger than Schmidt certainly helps on that front while his peak production has been higher than Schmidt’s and he’s a right-shot defender. Barring a return to the level of production in his first year with Winnipeg (45 points), he shouldn’t be in line for a significant increase but a long-term deal in the $6.5MM to $7MM range is achievable even if he stays around the 35-point mark.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

F Kyle Connor ($7.143MM through 2025-26)
F Adam Lowry ($3.25MM through 2025-26)
D Josh Morrissey ($6.25MM through 2027-28)

Connor emerged as a legitimate top-line star last season, finishing tied for fifth in the NHL in goals while logging nearly 22 minutes a night, an impressive ATOI for a forward. Pure scorers generally generate extra interest in free agency and it’s fair to say that Connor’s track record demonstrates that he’s one of those. If he stays on this trajectory, he looks like a candidate for a double-digit AAV four years from now. Lowry is a bit on the higher-paid side as far as a typical third-liner goes but his ability to play center and the wing, move up and down the lineup, and provide a very robust physical game allows the Jets to get a lot of value from the contract even if the offensive bang for the buck isn’t always there. That said, unless that production improves, he probably won’t get much more than this on his next deal.

Morrissey isn’t a true top rearguard but that’s the role he has held with Winnipeg for several years now. An uptick in his production would go a long way towards becoming that type of number one defender and he made some strides on that front a year ago. If he picks up where he left off and can get to the 10-goal, 40-point mark, he’ll become a bigger bargain for Winnipeg in a hurry and give himself a good shot at a significant raise down the road.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Connor
Worst Value: Wheeler

Looking Ahead

All things considered, Winnipeg’s cap situation is pretty strong both now and down the road. They have ample cap space (relatively speaking) to add a couple of players up front closer to the trade deadline while their defensive depth (moving someone like DeMelo or Dillon) could allow them to fill a hole and perhaps create a spot for Ville Heinola to rejoin the team.

From a long-term perspective, things are pretty clean. There aren’t many long-term contracts on the books and as some below-market deals expire, so too do some above-market ones which should allow Cheveldayoff to move money around to keep their core intact and potentially add to it over the next few years. That’s certainly not a bad spot to be in by any stretch.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

November 2, 2022 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $84,237,279 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jake Neighbours (three years, $835K)

Potential Bonuses
Neighbours: $82.5K

After holding his own in a nine-game stint last season, Neighbours is expected to hold down a regular spot this year. It’s too early to forecast the next contract for the 2020 first rounder but it’s worth noting that his bonuses are games-played based and with St. Louis into LTIR, those could roll over and be applied on their cap next season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Ivan Barbashev ($2.2MM, UFA)
F Logan Brown ($750K, RFA)
G Thomas Greiss ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Niko Mikkola ($1.9MM, UFA)
D Scott Perunovich ($750K, RFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($750K, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Alexey Toropchenko ($750K, RFA)

Potential Bonuses
Greiss: $250K

O’Reilly is the veteran that many expect to be the one that ultimately gets re-signed. While he’s off to a particularly tough start this season, the 31-year-old has been a strong two-way center over the past several years while being elite at the faceoff dot. Those are elements that will certainly be in high demand and should keep his cost high even as he slows down offensively. Right now, a small dip could be expected but if he turns around and has a 25-goal, 60-point year when all is said and done, his next contract could be very close to this one.

Tarasenko’s future in St. Louis has been in question dating back to last season when his trade request wasn’t granted. To his credit, he responded in the best way possible with a career year that saw him pick up 82 points in 78 games while he’s off to a pretty good start early on this season as well. In doing so, he has put some of the questions about the health of his shoulders to rest as well. At this point, it’s still difficult to see him staying in St. Louis (especially with who else needs to be re-signed) but the 30-year-old is certainly positioning himself to be one of the top wingers on the open market next summer. Accordingly, another contract in this range could be doable.

Barbashev is a player many are keeping an eye on this season to see if his 60-point performance was a one-off or a sign of things to come. If it’s the former, a small raise to an AAV starting with a three could still be doable but a repeat showing could double that on the open market. Acciari has impressed the coaching staff early on and was bumped up to the front line but that’s likely a short-term promotion. He’s more of an energy player and as long as he stays healthy, it should be mission accomplished on bolstering his value which could put him in a spot for a multi-year agreement in the $1.5MM range. Pitlick couldn’t land a guaranteed deal through training camp but got one off an extended PTO. That’s likely to be the route he needs to take next year.

As for the RFA-bound forwards, both Brown and Toropchenko are at the stage where they’re looking to establish themselves as NHL regulars. Both have had limited ice time in the games they’ve played so far and that alone isn’t going to be enough to land a raise of significance. St. Louis will need to keep these end-of-roster spots at or near the minimum so it will be interesting to see if they can get these two to take another year around this price tag.

Mikkola was scratched at times last season but still managed to get this deal in exchange for avoiding arbitration this past summer. His role has been quite limited this year which doesn’t bode well for his market value. However, he still has fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt so there could be a team that feels there’s some untapped upside so even if he stays in a number six role, his market could be strong enough to get a small raise next summer. Perunovich took a one-year show-me deal and then fractured his shoulder which will probably keep him out for the rest of the year. Accordingly, another one-year, low-cost pact could be coming his way, especially since he won’t accrue a season toward arbitration eligibility if he doesn’t play this season.

Greiss was brought over in free agency to be a more cost-friendly backup goaltender but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him kept below 20 starts to avoid the bonus payout. He’ll be 37 next summer so he’ll likely be on one-year deals from here on out but after a tough year with Detroit, a bounce-back showing could give him a stronger market in July.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Robert Bortuzzo ($950K, UFA)
D Calle Rosen ($762.5K, UFA)
D Marco Scandella ($3.275MM, UFA)
F Nathan Walker ($750K in 2022-23, $775K in 2023-24, UFA)

Walker is a nice story of perseverance as next season will be his first one-way contract after nine seasons on a two-way deal. He’s one of those players that fits at the minimum in an end-of-roster spot but it’s hard to see him getting much more than what he will get next year.

Scandella fit in well after he was acquired midseason in 2020 but this contract hasn’t been a good one for them. He struggled last year and will miss most (if not all) of this season after undergoing hip surgery which has created the LTIR space that they’re currently using. At this point, he’s someone that could be looking at a pay cut of 50% or more in 2024. Bortuzzo is a depth defender that has signed a variety of low-cost deals to stay with the Blues. If they’re comfortable with him in a seventh role two years from now, that trend could continue with a contract similar in value to this one. Rosen has bounced around in recent years between the NHL and AHL and is likely to stay at or close to the minimum unless he’s able to establish himself as a full-timer at the top level.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8MM, UFA)

The 27-year-old fit in quite well last season, putting together a career year in his first season with St. Louis. If he can repeat that performance over the next few seasons, Buchnevich could be highly sought after in 2025 with a price tag that would be similar to Tarasenko’s. That’s a big if, however, but even if he checks in closer to the 60-point range instead of the 76 from a year ago, he could get closer to the $6.5MM range on his next contract.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

G Jordan Binnington ($6MM through 2026-27)
D Justin Faulk ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
D Torey Krug ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
F Jordan Kyrou ($2.8MM in 2022-23, $8.125MM from 2023-24 through 2030-31)
D Colton Parayko ($6.5MM through 2029-30)
F Brandon Saad ($4.5MM through 2025-26)
F Brayden Schenn ($6.5MM through 2027-28)
F Robert Thomas ($2.8MM in 2022-23, $8.125MM from 2023-24 through 2030-31)

Thomas and Kyrou are on identical contracts this season and that will be the case for the long haul now. They both vastly outperformed their bridge deals last year, establishing themselves as core players in the process which led to these agreements. With somewhat limited track records still, these do carry some risk but it’s clear that GM Doug Armstrong was factoring in the future cap increases with his thinking. They might be a bit above market next year for a season or two but over time, they should get a good return on these contracts as long as they continue to be impact forwards.

Schenn is coming off his best year in terms of per-game averages and he has produced a bit above that level this season so far. At this point, he’s still a quality top-six forward that can play both center and the wing and they’ll get a good return for a few more years at least. With the heavier style that he plays which takes its toll over time, there are some concerns about how the final few seasons could look but for now, this contract shouldn’t be a concern. Saad opted for stability over a pillow contract to try to rebuild his value and the Blues benefitted from that decision. He’s a capable top-six winger at a relatively team-friendly value now and as the cap goes up, it should become more club-friendly along the way.

Faulk’s acquisition and extension didn’t look great early on but last year, he turned a corner and had one of his best performances. He draws a lot of value from his production and should have a few more good years in him on that front. Krug also had his best season in St. Louis last season but isn’t the type of minutes-eater that Faulk is. While they’re not true number one options, they’re both valuable defenders and are strong anchors of their by-committee approach.

Parayko is supposed to be in that category as well. He has shown flashes of offensive upside in the past and if he could ever channel that with some consistency, he could become that true number one defender that St. Louis is lacking. However, he hasn’t been able to do so and while he logs heavy minutes, he’s more of a complementary defender when he isn’t producing. They’re paying him to log tough minutes and produce and that hasn’t happened often enough just yet.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Thomas (this season)
Worst Value: Parayko

Looking Ahead

Armstrong will have one chance to make a move to upgrade his roster in-season using whatever is left of Scandella’s money. While LTIR room doesn’t accrue like regular cap space, it seems reasonable to expect that he’ll wait until closer to the deadline to see what exactly his team needs while trade partners might be more willing to retain salary at that time.

Let’s do some quick math. St. Louis has over $71MM in commitments to 14 players next season. There’s no way they can afford to keep or replace both O’Reilly and Tarasenko so one core player is likely heading elsewhere for 2023-24. The following season, they have over $64MM tied up in 11 players. Basically, until the Upper Limit starts to increase significantly, the Blues aren’t going to be able to add to their core group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2022

Toronto Maple Leafs

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Tampa Bay Lightning

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Ottawa Senators

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Montreal Canadiens

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Florida Panthers

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Detroit Red Wings

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Buffalo Sabres

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Boston Bruins

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Winnipeg Jets

Entry-Level Contracts

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

Signed Through 2023-24

Signed Through 2024-25

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer