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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2021

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Seattle Kraken

Current Cap Hit: $73,106,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play a full-time role in the NHL this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mason Appleton ($900K, RFA)
F Colin Blackwell ($725K, UFA)
D Dennis Cholowski ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($750K, RFA)
D Cale Fleury ($750K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($750K, RFA)
D Mark Giordano ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($825K, RFA)
F Kole Lind ($874K, RFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($2.94MM, RFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($850K, UFA)
F Carsen Twarynski ($750K, RFA)

McCann has shown flashes of being an above-average contributor in the past but hasn’t been able to do so consistently.  He’ll get the chance to play a bigger role with Seattle and if it all comes together, he could be in line for a sizable pay bump next year.  Jarnkrok has been on a bargain deal for the last five years and will also get to play a bigger role with a shot at bumping up his numbers before hitting the open market.  Johansson and Sheahan are both coming off quiet years and have seen their value dip lately and will need stronger seasons to land guaranteed deals next summer.  Appleton is coming off a strong season with Winnipeg and is already looking like a candidate to more than double his AAV next summer.  A similar performance this season could triple it.  Donato had to settle for a minimum contract after a tough year in San Jose but should be able to rebuild his value with the Kraken somewhat.  Blackwell had a breakout year with the Rangers and is a candidate for a big jump in salary next summer.  Geekie, Lind, and Twarynski will also be battling for depth roles but if they land a roster spot, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to land a big raise as they’d be in a limited role.

Giordano – who turns 38 next month – is nearing the end of his career but is still a capable top-four blueliner.  He’s going to get an opportunity to play a bigger role than he probably should and he’s a candidate to be moved at the trade deadline to a contender who can cut his ice time.  He’ll be going year to year from here on out and while his next deal will be cheaper than this, he could still command an AAV in the $5MM range.  The Fleury brothers are at different stages of their careers.  Haydn played close to the full season in 2020-21 and should be able to land a small raise a year from now while Cale was in the minors last season and is merely looking to stick on the roster.  A limited role is likely which will yield a cheap deal next summer.  Lauzon did well in Boston last year in his first stint of regular duty and with arbitration rights, he could double his current AAV next summer.  Cholowski’s AAV is a little high for someone who may be on the fringes of making the roster but that may be by design in order to try to help sneak him through waivers next month.

Two Years Remaining

F Nathan Bastian ($825K, RFA)
D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)

Donskoi hasn’t had a lot of consistent top-six opportunities but has surpassed the 30-point mark in each of the last four seasons.  His price tag is a little high for his level of production but with a bigger role in Seattle, that could change.  Bastian has basically just been an energy player in the early stages of his career and as long as he can hold down a spot on the roster, they won’t have any issues with his price tag.  Gritty energy players can still land a pretty good payday as long as they can put up some production which is something Bastian will have to work on.

Dunn’s offensive production landed him a big raise this summer and it’s telling that Seattle opted for basically a second bridge contract to get one more opportunity to work out a long-term deal before he becomes UFA-eligible.  He’s going to get the opportunity for a bigger role than he had with the Blues and if he can establish himself as a top-pairing player, that next deal could be quite a pricey one.  Soucy is a serviceable third-pairing defenseman making a bit much for that role but Seattle has ample cap space to afford the small overpayment in the short term.  Borgen is merely looking to establish himself as a regular NHL player so his next contract shouldn’t be much higher than this one unless he winds up in a big role fairly quickly.

Three Years Remaining

G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)

Eberle isn’t the top-line winger that he was in his prime but he’s still a fairly consistent secondary scorer.  He’s going to be asked to do more than that in Seattle which could give him a chance to crack the 20-goal mark again, something he was on pace to do the last two shortened seasons.  If he gets there, it may not be a bargain contract but they’ll get a reasonable return.  Wennberg’s contract showed how difficult it is to land impact centers in free agency.  He did well with Florida last season but was bought out by Columbus the year before after struggling in a top-six role and has only reached double-digit goals twice in his career.  He’s going to have a big role with the Kraken and this is a contract that certainly carries some risk.

Driedger is one of the more impressive success stories in recent years.  After bouncing around the minors, he finally got an opportunity with the Panthers and quickly became one of the better backups in the league.  But with the late start, his track record is minimal – just 41 career NHL appearances and that includes playoff action.  Landing a three-year commitment towards the upper echelon of price tags for a backup goaltender was pretty good, especially when it looked like he might be the starter.  Of course, that changed early in free agency but Driedger should be able to still play enough games to justify the small premium for a backup netminder.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

at CDT | by 9 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $81,378,205 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play a full-time role in the NHL this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Zach Aston-Reese ($1.725MM, UFA)
F Jeff Carter ($2.636MM, UFA)*
G Casey DeSmith ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Mark Friedman ($725K, RFA)
F Danton Heinen ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Lafferty ($750K, UFA)
D Kris Letang ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Juuso Riikola ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($1MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($750K, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($3.5MM, UFA)

*-Los Angeles is paying 50% of Carter’s cap hit.

Malkin had a quiet year by his standards last season as he notched 28 points in 33 games and isn’t expected to be ready to start the upcoming campaign due to knee surgery.  Now 35, Malkin’s days of being an elite producer may have come to an end which means a pay cut should be on the horizon.  Rust didn’t put up a point per game last season but still produced at a top-line level.  Showing that over a full season would have him very well-positioned for a sizable raise on his next deal.  Kapanen’s second go-round in Pittsburgh was better than his first as he established himself as a strong second-liner.  He’ll be a year away from UFA eligibility at the end of this contract so a long-term, pricier contract is heading his way.  If not, he’d be wise to just file for arbitration and head to the open market in 2023.

Carter made an immediate impact after coming over from Los Angeles, notching 13 goals in 20 games (regular season and playoffs combined).  If he even comes close to that pace this coming season, they’ll get good value on the contract and Carter, who seemed to be a candidate to retire when this deal was up, could wind up sticking around the league a little longer.  Aston-Reese couldn’t work out a long-term contract (the cap situation played a role in that) which sends him to the open market next summer.  The market for bottom-six players improved considerably this offseason which bodes quite well for his future earnings.  Heinen was non-tendered by Anaheim following a tough run with them and lands in a favorable situation where he’ll be in a better offensive environment to try to rebuild his value.  He can be controlled through a qualifying offer although salary arbitration could be a factor.  Rodrigues was a serviceable role player and got a small raise this summer but unless his offensive numbers take a step forward, he won’t get much of one next year.  Lafferty brings grit but not a lot of production which will keep his price tag close to the minimum moving forward.

While Malkin is probably heading for a smaller salary, the same can’t necessarily be said for Letang, another long-time core piece that’s set to hit the open market.  The top-end production is still there as he very quietly finished tied for third in the league for points by a defenseman last season.  With the way the cost for top-pairing blueliners has gone up, Letang could have a decent case for a small raise.  If he’s willing to take a discount to stay in Pittsburgh – a reasonable possibility – the discount may simply be signing for something close to what he’s making now.  He’ll be subject to 35-plus provisions (unless a multi-year deal has equal compensation throughout) on his next contract but Letang still should still land a multi-year commitment.  Ruhwedel and Friedman are depth defenders whose biggest value comes from their low cap hits and those will need to be low-cost slots beyond this season.

DeSmith returned to the NHL last season after being the third-stringer in 2019-20 and the results were mixed as Pittsburgh’s goaltending ran hot and cold at times but overall, he provided slightly above average numbers at a price tag well below many recent backup signings.  A repeat showing could put him in a spot to double his current AAV next summer.

Two Years Remaining

F Teddy Blueger ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Tristan Jarry ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Radim Zohorna ($750K, UFA)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM, UFA)

At the time that Pittsburgh acquired Zucker, his contract looked more than reasonable.  He was a quality top-six winger with the expectation that joining the Penguins would help improve his production.  That hasn’t happened and he wound up being unclaimed in expansion.  All of a sudden, his deal is an overpayment relative to the production he has provided which won’t help his market value two years from now.  Blueger has become an important bottom-six piece and should have an opportunity to play a bit of a bigger role this season.  Even capable bottom-six centers can land notable contracts so he should be looking at a raise in 2023.  Zohorna held his own in his NHL debut last season but is waiver-exempt for one more year.  He’s likely to be shuffled back and forth as a result to save some money on the cap.

Dumoulin doesn’t generate a lot of buzz around the league but he has been a key cog on their back end for several years.  His limited offensive production won’t help his chances of landing top dollar in free agency but as a reliable defensive defender that can log top-pairing minutes, he’s still looking at a fairly hefty raise on his next deal.

Jarry’s first season as the undisputed number one goalie didn’t exactly go as planned.  He struggled with consistency throughout the year with a propensity for allowing untimely weak goals.  Even so, he’s still only making what a top backup does so while he was overpaid for what he did last season, it wasn’t by as much as it might seem.  Needless to say, he’ll have to be a lot better to get a contract for number one money two years from now.

Three Years Remaining

F Jake Guentzel ($6MM, UFA)

Guentzel was once again slightly above the point per game mark last season and has basically been a point per game player over the last three seasons.  Not many can say that and even fewer have an AAV that is closer to a second-liner than a top-line forward.  He’s still young enough to land close to a max-term contract in his next negotiation and it could be a pricey one if this keeps up.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $78,138,334 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Mario Ferraro ($925K in 2021-22)
D Nikolai Knyzhov ($797K in 2021-22)
F John Leonard ($925K in 2021-22)

Leonard managed to hold down a regular spot in the lineup in his rookie season, albeit in a limited role.  Barring a jump forward offensively, he’s unlikely to land much more than his current price tag on his second contract which would almost certainly be a short-term one.

Ferraro’s sophomore season didn’t see him upping his production all that much but his role certainly changed.  Instead of being on the third pairing in sheltered minutes, the 22-year-old was a regular on the top pairing, playing in all situations.  There’s little reason to think that will change this coming season and while limited production will limit his earnings upside, Ferraro could triple his current AAV on a bridge deal.  Knyzhov had the role that Ferraro had in his rookie season, seeing some sheltered minutes on the third pairing but played in every game.  Even if he stays in that role in 2021-22, he’ll be able to pass the $1MM mark on his second contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Alexander Barabanov ($1MM, UFA)
F Andrew Cogliano ($1MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Dahlen ($750K, RFA)
D Dylan Gambrell ($1.1MM, RFA)
F Tomas Hertl ($5.625MM, UFA)
D Nicolas Meloche ($750K, RFA)
F Nick Merkley ($750K, RFA)

Hertl’s name has been in trade speculation over the last couple of weeks following some comments earlier this month that suggested he may not be with the Sharks beyond the upcoming season.  He has become their top-producing center, successfully making the transition from playing the wing at the start of his career.  In doing so, his market value has increased considerably.  While he may not be able to market himself as a true number one center, quality middlemen are always in high demand and low supply on the open market.  Accordingly, a $2MM jump in AAV seems realistic and if it’s not coming from the Sharks, will whoever acquires him closer to the trade deadline hand him an extension as part of the swap?

Gambrell had a big jump in playing time last season but the production was still middling.  He’s serviceable in a limited role and can kill penalties but that’s not a spot where they can afford to pay much more than what they’re currently paying and his arbitration eligibility could work against him.  Cogliano is a capable placeholding veteran that could be a trade candidate if they’re out of contention at the trade deadline.  He’ll be subject to the 35-plus designation next year so he’ll probably be going year-to-year from here on out.  Barabanov did well in a very limited stretch after coming over from Toronto and should get a shot at a bigger role.  A good showing could have him in line for a considerable raise but if that doesn’t happen, he’ll be a candidate to go back to the KHL.  Dahlen managed to land a one-way deal which is impressive for someone who played in Sweden’s second division last season.  He’ll get a shot at earning a regular spot in camp and if that doesn’t happen, his time in North America could be short-lived.  Merkley came over in an offseason trade from New Jersey and will push for a spot on the fourth line; that roster spot will likely continue to be filled by someone making the minimum or close to it moving forward.

Meloche split last season between the Sharks and the taxi squad and at this point, they’re likely to carry a seventh defender that can clear waivers and go back and forth when needed.  He’ll battle Jacob Middleton ($725K) for that role unless someone else is brought in between now and then.

Two Years Remaining

F Rudolfs Balcers ($1.55MM, RFA)
F Nick Bonino ($2.05MM, UFA)
D Adin Hill ($2.175MM, UFA)
F Timo Meier ($6MM, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($850K, UFA)
F Lane Pederson ($750K, RFA)
G James Reimer ($2.25MM, UFA)

Meier hasn’t been able to get back to the per-game production he had before signing this contract, one that carries the poison pill of a $10MM qualifying offer at its expiry.  It’d be hard to justify paying him that much while that qualifier also hurts his trade value unless an early extension can be worked out in 2022-23.  Bonino came over in free agency, signing a deal that was below our projection for him.  As far as third centers go, he’s a decent one on a below-market contract.  Balcers has been one of the better recent waiver claims around the league and is in a spot where he can play a regular middle-six role.  As long as he stays there, they’ll get a good return on this deal.  Nieto and Pederson will be cheap depth players and will be retained around that price point or replaced by someone else making that money.

Hill hasn’t had much of an NHL opportunity but he’ll get one now as he goes from being Arizona’s backup to the starter with the Sharks.  We’ve seen the type of money even top backups get let alone starters; both are price points well beyond what he’s making now so the opportunity for a big jump in salary will soon be there.  Reimer returns for his second stint with the Sharks and after effectively being relegated to third-string duty in Carolina by the end of the year, he still landed a decent contract.  He’ll be 35 for next trip to free agency and likely will have to go year-to-year at that point.

Three Years Remaining

F Kevin Labanc ($4.725MM, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25MM, UFA)

Labanc’s contract was a pricey one for the year he was coming off of but it was also a reward for taking a very team-friendly deal the year before.  Unfortunately for him and the Sharks, last season wasn’t much of an improvement.  If he gets even close to his 2018-19 numbers, they will get a reasonable return on his deal but right now, this one is a bit of an overpayment.

Simek’s deal also falls under that category.  He was their sixth defender some nights and that type of term and money for someone in that role is not good value.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $79,968,849 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.375MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($750K, UFA)
F Mackenzie MacEachern ($900K, UFA)
D Niko Mikkola ($788K, RFA)
F David Perron ($4MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($2MM, UFA)
D Jake Walman ($725K, RFA)

Some players just fit on a certain team and that appears to be the case for Perron who has vastly outperformed his contract in this, his third go-around with the organization.  He cracked the point per game mark last season for the first time in his career and a repeat performance would set him up for a considerable raise if he opted to test free agency.  Given that he has already come back twice though, it’s also understandable to think that he may take a little less to stay where he’s comfortable.  Sanford has been a capable depth scorer the last few seasons and after seeing that market bounce back a bit for unrestricted free agents this summer, he should be able to land a small raise.  If they have to spend more to retain Perron though, some of that money may come from Sanford’s expiring deal.  Clifford had a limited role last season and a similar showing will have him looking at playing for the minimum salary in 2022-23.  MacEachern has been a depth piece and will need to establish himself as a regular to have a shot at a nominal raise moving forward; his spot will likely need to go to someone making the minimum beyond this season.

Bortuzzo has had a limited role the last few seasons and while they may want to keep him around in that same role, it’s hard to see him getting more on his next deal as players logging the minutes he does often sign for the minimum or close to it.  Mikkola will have a chance to push for a regular spot on the third pairing but as he hasn’t produced much even in the minors, a minor pay bump is likelier than a big jump.  Walman will be battling Mikkola for that spot and while he has produced more in the minors, again, only a small raise is probable unless one of them really takes a big step and locks down a spot in the top four.

Husso’s first NHL opportunity didn’t go as well as he or the Blues had hoped for but with their cap situation, they couldn’t really afford to bring in a more proven backup.  That’s the case again for 2021-22 where he’ll get a chance to prove himself as a viable NHL second option.  If it doesn’t happen, he may be back to looking for two-way deals.  Either way, St. Louis will need to stay with a low-priced backup to make their salary structure work.

Two Years Remaining

F Ivan Barbashev ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jordan Kyrou ($2.8MM, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)

When Buffalo signed O’Reilly to this contract just one year after acquiring him from Colorado back in 2016, the price tag seemed steep.  The hope was that he’d become a top-line center but it took getting traded again for him to truly get to that level.  With St. Louis, O’Reilly has upped his production while continuing his strong defensive play, earning a Selke Trophy and finishing in the top five in voting the other two seasons.  He has made a case for a small raise – he doesn’t put up elite offensive numbers to get him into that $10MM or more tier – but he’ll be 32 when his next contract starts, taking away the potential for a max-term pact.

On the other end of the scale is Tarasenko.  You all know the story by now, multiple shoulder surgeries, decreased offensive production, and a mutual desire for a change of scenery though one has yet to materialize.  He’ll need to bounce back in a big way to have a shot at a contract anywhere near this two years from now.  Kyrou’s first full NHL season was a strong one but with his limited track record and their cap situation, a bridge deal was the only way to go.  He’ll at least get a small raise with a $3.2MM qualifying offer but it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him double his current AAV on a long-term pact.  Sundqvist, when healthy, has become a capable third liner and as a center, he plays a premium position but he will need to improve his production if he wants more than a nominal raise two years from now.  The same can be said for Barbashev who, while he has been used more as a winger, can also play down the middle which will help his value on the open market.

Three Years Remaining

D Marco Scandella ($3.275MM, UFA)

Scandella made an immediate impact after being acquired from Montreal in 2020, earning this extension soon after.  He doesn’t produce much but is a capable shutdown defender that can play on the second pairing.  It’s not a value contract but it’s not an overpayment either.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $88,365,955 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
F Mathieu Joseph ($737.5K, RFA)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)

After a few quieter years, Palat had a strong bounce-back campaign in 2020-21, finishing second in team scoring and producing at a top-line rate for the first time in a while.  That made him a viable candidate for Seattle to pick in expansion although they opted for Yanni Gourde instead.  Palat will be 31 when he signs his next deal which means a long-term pact is likely off the table but a medium-term one around this is likely.  If he wants to stick around, GM Julien BriseBois may push for something a little lower.  Maroon has signed for cheap the last few years and as long as he has a chance to win, he’ll probably keep taking those types of contracts.  If not, that spot will be filled by someone else willing to play for close to the minimum.  Joseph stands out as a viable offer sheet candidate next summer; assuming he has a good season, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to keep him and re-sign Palat.  If a team thinks he’s worthy of a bigger role and wants to pay him for it, that could put the Lightning in a bit of a bind.

Rutta has been a serviceable player on the third pairing since joining them in 2019 and if that continues, he could be in line for a small raise.  That said, this feels like a spot for Tampa to try to go a little cheaper to free up some flexibility.

Last year was a tough one for Elliott in Philadelphia which significantly hurt his value heading into free agency.  That, combined with Tampa Bay needing a cheap replacement for Curtis McElhinney, made for a good combination here.  At this stage of his career, he’ll be going year-to-year on his next contracts so how he fares this season will determine if he has a chance of getting back towards that higher echelon of backups in terms of salary.

Two Years Remaining

F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Erik Cernak ($2.95MM, RFA)
F Anthony Cirelli ($4.8MM, RFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.125MM, RFA)
D Cal Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8MM, RFA)

Things may not have looked too bad after the last group but that starts to change here with several young players expiring after this time.  Cirelli is coming off a quiet year but produced at a much better level the previous two seasons.  Even if not, his qualifying offer will check in at $5.76MM (120% of his AAV) so a raise is coming.  Killorn has been a reliable secondary scorer for several years but with the RFAs on this list, it certainly looks like their raises will squeeze him out; with prices for secondary scoring dropping a bit lately, Killorn may be looking at a small dip if he continues to hover around the 40-point mark.  Colton is in line for a bigger role next season following a strong showing in the playoffs which likely has him on a trajectory for a bigger deal as well.  Perry and Bellemare are quality veterans who can anchor the fourth line or move up in a pinch; both likely left money on the table to go to the Lightning which is something that can be said for quite a few others on their team.

Sergachev has established himself as a quality piece on the second pairing and at 23, there’s still room for growth.  He’s on the same contract as Cirelli so a higher qualifying offer will be coming in the 2023 offseason and likely a bigger deal than that.  Cernak doesn’t light up the scoresheet but as a top-four right-shot defender, he’s going to be in line for a significant raise beyond his $3.54MM qualifier as well.  If Foote is able to establish himself as a full-time player by the time his deal is up, doubling his AAV or more isn’t out of the question either.  Big raises are coming from this group.

Three Years Remaining

F Alex Barre-Boulet ($758K, UFA)
D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos is going to be one of the more interesting contracts for Tampa Bay to handle.  He’ll be 34 when it starts so he should still have a few good years left in him but with the anticipated higher costs from their RFAs in the last group, it’s quite difficult to see them being able to afford a market-value contract for their captain unless there’s a significant contract moved out by then.  Injuries have limited his usefulness lately and if that trend continues, his value will dip considerably.  Barre-Boulet isn’t too established at the NHL level yet but he has scored in junior and in the minors and won’t need to do much to live up to a near-minimum contract.  Assuming he produces – a reasonable one to make – this could be a nice value contract for them.

Bogosian also should be a value contract but is on the opposite side of his career.  He could have gotten more elsewhere or even going year-to-year but opted for some stability with a chance to win.

Seabrook was acquired as part of the Tyler Johnson trade but his playing days are already over.  He’ll return to LTIR next season.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $82,894,783 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Timothy Liljegren ($863K in 2021-22)
D Rasmus Sandin ($894K in 2021-22)

Potential Bonuses
Liljegren: $400K

Sandin saw limited action with Toronto last season but suited up in five of their seven playoff games and with the departure of Zach Bogosian, a top-six spot should be his for the taking in training camp.  While he has shown offensive upside at the lower levels, it hasn’t yet materialized in the NHL and barring a big year on that front, he’s someone that will likely need to sign a cheap one-year deal to preserve as much cap flexibility for Toronto as possible.  Liljegren also figures to get a look in training camp and should be one of the first recalls otherwise.  He’s also a candidate for a one-year deal after the season, likely for the league minimum either on a one-way contract or with a higher AHL salary.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Adam Brooks ($725K, RFA)
G Jack Campbell ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Pierre Engvall ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Kurtis Gabriel ($750K, UFA)
F Ondrej Kase ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Ilya Mikheyev ($1.645MM, UFA)
D Morgan Rielly ($5MM, UFA)
F Jason Spezza ($750K, UFA)

Mikheyev has shown some flashes of being a quality secondary scorer but consistency has been an issue so far.  With the Maple Leafs likely wanting to funnel some money towards a pair of notable UFAs in this list, it’s possible that he becomes a casualty with an eye on someone making less money taking his spot.  Engvall, who was in and out of the lineup last season, also falls under that category.  Kase was a very interesting signing this summer – he’s talented enough to be a top-six player but concussions have limited him lately.  If he stays healthy for the full season, he should provide a strong return on this deal.  Spezza should again provide some surplus value from the fourth line and has passed up chances to make more on the open market to play at home.  Gabriel will have a limited role when he’s in the lineup and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to sneak him through waivers for cap flexibility purposes; the same can be said for Brooks who has done well in limited duty but Toronto can’t afford to carry a 23-player roster.  These last three roster spots will need to be filled by minimum-salaried players for the foreseeable future.

Rielly has been Toronto’s top defenseman over the past several years and his contract has proven to be quite the bargain over that span.  That is going to change for 2022-23.  Even though he is coming off a quieter year offensively and likely isn’t going to be a 72-point player moving forward like he was in 2018-19, he’s a top-pairing player for the Maple Leafs and would be for many other teams as well.  He’ll hit the market at 28 where he can command a max-term contract and will have the offensive numbers to land a sizable raise.  Something over $7MM seems likely at this point and a big year could make that price tag even higher.

As for Campbell, he has been everything Toronto could have hoped for.  He came in and stabilized the backup position in 2020 and then played quite well down the stretch, earning the number one job for the playoffs where he only allowed 13 goals in their seven-game series loss to Montreal.  Even so, he still doesn’t have 100 career NHL appearances.  That will limit his earnings ceiling unless he can establish himself as a 50-game goalie or more which is going to be hard to do.  He still should be able to double his current price tag based on recent comparables but starter money may be a stretch.

Two Years Remaining

F Joey Anderson ($750K, RFA)
F Michael Bunting ($950K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Justin Holl ($2MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Nick Ritchie ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($900K, UFA)

Kerfoot has been involved in trade speculation for a while now being the highest-paid forward outside of their top-paid pieces.  However, his ability to play in all situations has made him valuable enough that they’ve made other moves instead and kept him on the roster.  He doesn’t produce enough to line himself up for a big raise two years from now but the fact he can play center will give him a strong market where he could come close to matching his current AAV.  Ritchie was non-tendered by Boston and landed quickly with the Maple Leafs.  He has shown the ability to play in the top-six, albeit inconsistently.  If he can be that type of player more frequently, he’s young enough to command a significant raise the next time he hits the open market.  Kampf was another non-tender this summer, this time by Chicago and will be a key checker for Toronto.  Scoring has been a challenge for him which limits his earnings upside considerably.  Bunting used a strong second half to land a one-way deal and he’ll have a chance to outperform that if he lands a spot in their top nine.  Simmonds took a pay cut to stick around and was rewarded with a no-trade clause in return.  Anderson hasn’t played much with Toronto but he’s now waiver-eligible and would be at risk at being claimed.  That could keep him on the roster as a result.

Holl has been a nice success story for the Maple Leafs.  After not really being able to crack the lineup under former coach Mike Babcock, he has since established himself as a quality second pair defender at a price tag that is well below market value for someone in the top four.  He’ll be in line for a fairly significant raise two years from now.  Dermott has come along a little slower than they may have hoped but he’s a regular on their third pairing and should get an opportunity to play a bit more than the 13 minutes a game from last season.  If that happens, they’ll get good value on his deal.  Dermott has one more crack at arbitration eligibility and will be owed a $1.75MM qualifying offer.

Three Years Remaining

D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
F Auston Matthews ($11.034MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.8MM, UFA)
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)

Matthews led the league in goals last season and it’s only a matter of time before he notches 50 in a single season.  At first glance, it may seem like someone making that much could be in line for a raise on his next deal but as an elite scorer playing a premium position (center) and the fact he’ll hit the open market at 26, the odds are pretty high that he’ll command a bigger contract next time around.  The same can be said for Nylander who has either reached the 60-point mark or played at that pace in four of the last five seasons.  By the time he reaches free agency, the cap will have gone up a little bit and he should be well-positioned to be one of the higher-paid wingers in free agency.

Muzzin has been an integral part of their back end since coming over in 2019 from the Kings.  He has helped form a stabilizing defensive pairing but is good enough to still contribute offensively.  He’s a high-end second pairing piece and with the way the market was for defenders this summer, it’s safe to say he’s now on a bit of a below-market deal.  Brodie has seen his production drop off the last couple of years but he’s still strong in his own end and was a good partner for Rielly last season.  The contract may be a bit high given the falloff in his offensive numbers but with the top-end offense they have, a jump in scoring can’t be ruled out.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $70,835,659 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nils Hoglander ($892K through 2022-23)
F Vasili Podkolzin ($925K through 2023-24)
D Jack Rathbone ($925K through 2021-22)

Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $200K
Podkolzin: $850K
Rathbone: $850K
Total: $1.9MM

Hoglander had a nice rookie season, notching 27 points in 56 games while finishing eighth in Calder Trophy voting.  He’s likely to be in a middle-six role for the next couple of years which could have him in bridge contract territory although if he’s able to improve his production a little bit, his camp could look at recent deals for Joel Farabee and Drake Batherson as potential comparables.  Podkolzin is coming to North America after spending the last two years in the KHL and should play a regular role fairly quickly.  They may ease him based on their current winger situation which makes it tough to project his next contract but he’s someone that should be part of their long-term plans and will get more expensive over time.

Rathbone didn’t look out of place in a late stint last season but with their depth, he will likely have to start in the minors.  However, the 22-year-old is probably going to be one of the first recalls and as a result, he will have a few opportunities to produce.  That could help him earn a cheap one-way deal for 2022-23 but at this point, it’s unlikely he’ll hit his bonuses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Brock Boeser ($5.875MM, RFA)
F Phillip Di Giuseppe ($750K, UFA)
D Jaroslav Halak ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($800K, UFA)
D Olli Juolevi ($750K, RFA)
F Zack MacEwen ($825K, RFA)
F Tyler Motte ($1.225MM, UFA)
F Brandon Sutter ($1.125MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Halak: $1.5MM

Boeser’s deal is one of the ones that ultimately played a role in the rule change of the new CBA which creates the second calculation for a qualifying offer at 120% of the AAV instead of just the final-year salary.  That rule doesn’t apply to him so he’ll be owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer next summer where he’ll be a year away from UFA eligibility if a long-term extension can’t be reached by then.  He’s heading for a big raise either way.  Motte has become a very effective energy forward and those players have still commanded good contracts on the open market so his next deal could approach double his current rate.  Sutter’s market value was basically just established earlier this offseason and his value probably won’t jump significantly after next season.  Di Giuseppe and MacEwen will fill depth roles and those spots will need to be at or near the minimum for the foreseeable future.

Hunt has held down a regular spot on an NHL roster the last few years even though it hasn’t yielded a lot of NHL action.  He’s a power play specialist and he has been claimed on waivers before so it will be interesting to see if Vancouver keeps him as their seventh defender or tries to send him down.  Juolevi had a limited role last season which made taking a one-year deal the smartest route for both sides.  He’ll need to establish himself as a regular on the third pairing to have a shot at getting any sort of notable raise.

Halak comes over from Boston and will be a nice mentor that can push for playing time.  At 36, he’ll be going year-to-year moving forward.  Worth noting is that his bonuses are quite achievable, $1.25MM for 10 games played and $250K for a .905 SV%.  Vancouver is probably going to be in LTIR all season long so those bonuses (plus any others the prospects hit) are going to come off their Upper Limit in 2022-23.

Two Years Remaining

F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($3MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
F J.T. Miller ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)

Horvat has been a key player down the middle for his seven-year NHL career, logging tough defensive minutes while still chipping in offensively.  His contract has proven to be a nice bargain for the Canucks but the 26-year-old will be in line for a max-term deal and a significant raise two years from now.  The same can probably be said for Miller who has established himself as a top-line forward after coming over from Tampa Bay while playing well down the middle when called upon which will only help his value.  It will cost a lot more to keep these two around long-term.  Dowling provides some extra depth up front but is a candidate to be waived if someone else pushes him out of the lineup.

Ferland has missed most of the last two years with concussion trouble and there are questions about whether or not he’ll be able to return or even if he should try.  He’s likely to go on LTIR and that will be important to keep in mind once we get to the Unsigned Players section.

Hamonic earned this deal after playing for considerably less last year but the fact he was willing to go outside Western Canada certainly bolstered his leverage.  He won’t produce much but if he can log around 20 minutes a night, they’ll be fine with this contract.  Schenn is another low-cost depth option and could be a candidate to be waived as well if someone like Rathbone forces Vancouver’s hand and plays well enough to earn a full-time roster spot.

Three Years Remaining

F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.225MM, UFA)

Pearson re-signed with Vancouver just before the trade deadline with an extension that looked a little high based on the season he was having and where he fits in on their depth chart but unlike some of the similar-priced deals to their now-former role players, this one won’t hurt as much.  Vancouver used Dallas’ expansion situation to their advantage to add and sign Dickinson as their new third-line center, bumping Sutter down a line in the process.  Dickinson hasn’t put up much in the way of offensive numbers but he should get an opportunity to play a bit of a bigger role which would help justify the contract.

Myers’ contract has not been favorably looked upon from the moment it was signed.  He had his limitations in Winnipeg and is better off in a more limited role than a top-pairing one but Vancouver still handed him a significant contract and a big role.  Barring an uptick in offensive production, he was going to have a hard time living up to it and that hasn’t happened yet as his point-per-game averages have been close to what they were with the Jets.  He’s a capable blueliner in the right spot on the depth chart but they are going to be hard-pressed to get any sort of value out of this deal.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Thatcher Demko ($5MM through 2025-26)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($7.26MM through 2026-27)*
F Conor Garland ($4.95MM through 2025-26)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM through 2024-25)

*-Arizona is retaining $999K on Ekman-Larsson’s contract each year.

Garland was brought over as part of the Ekman-Larsson trade and while the blueliner was the headliner, Garland is still a significant addition.  He was one of Arizona’s top scoring threats the last two seasons and will have the opportunity to play a top-six role in Vancouver.  A boost in production with the change of scenery could make his deal a team-friendly one.

The same can’t be said for Ekman-Larsson.  He’s coming off a tough season and the final few years of that contract could be a concern given all of the tough minutes he has logged over the years.  He’ll certainly be a big addition for now but this contract could cost them the services of one of their other key veterans down the road.  Poolman’s contract was one of the more puzzling ones in free agency.  He’s a decent third pairing stay-at-home option but those players don’t typically command four years on the open market.  Clearly, GM Jim Benning thinks he can bring more to the table than he did with Winnipeg.

Demko has very limited NHL experience – just 72 regular season games – but did well in what was a tough year for Vancouver in 2020-21.  He may not be ready to be a 55-plus-game starter – that’s why Halak was brought in – but he’s definitely ready to take on the heavier side of the workload between the pipes.  It may take another year or two but he’s capable of establishing himself as a strong number one and if that happens, this will be a big bargain for Vancouver.

Buyouts

G Braden Holtby ($500K in 2021-22, $1.9MM in 2022-23)
F Jake Virtanen ($50K in 2021-22, $500K in 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

G Roberto Luongo ($3.035MM in 2021-22)

Still To Sign

D Quinn Hughes
F Elias Pettersson

Pettersson looked to be on his way to another season of being near a point per game before missing the final 30 games due to a wrist injury.  That shouldn’t affect his next contract too much though.  He has established himself as a top liner although he may be better off as a winger than a center moving forward which could cost him a little bit on this next deal since centers tend to get a bit more of a premium than wingers.  A bridge deal would be in the high $5MM to low $6MM range while one that buys out UFA eligibility will cost a couple million more.

Hughes has a bit less leverage than Pettersson with the shorter track record and isn’t eligible for an offer sheet.  However, he has two years of high-end production and he already looks like a premier point-producer among NHL defensemen.  We’ve seen those players get paid considerably this offseason and his camp undoubtedly will be wanting to use those as comparables in negotiations.  The potential price tags are likely similar to Pettersson’s thresholds.

Best Value: Horvat
Worst Value: Myers

Looking Ahead

By the time you factor in Ferland’s LTIR situation and Vancouver’s cap space, the Canucks are going to have somewhere between $13MM-$14MM in cap room, slightly more than that if they carry a roster below the maximum size.  Even so, that’s probably not enough to sign both Hughes and Pettersson to long-term deals which is why the expectation has been that one would get a bridge and the other a long-term contract.  We’ll find out over the next few weeks who gets which one.

The cap is going to be an issue for a while for Vancouver.  While they have just $53MM committed for 2022-23 right now, that goes up quickly once the two RFAs sign while Boeser gets his guaranteed big raise plus the expected bonus overage penalty.  That won’t leave much short-term wiggle room and a year later, they’ll be contending with bigger deals for Horvat and Miller.  There isn’t a lot of long-term money on the books compared to some teams but it’s difficult to see how they’re going to keep this entire core intact over the next few years with a salary cap that isn’t going to rise very much or very quickly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $81,537,439 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Peyton Krebs ($863K through 2023-24)

Potential Bonuses: $412.5K

Krebs, a 2019 first-rounder, got a brief NHL look late last season and held his own.  He may have to wait to get a look this coming season – there will be roster limitations again when everyone is healthy – but if their summer acquisitions to bolster their center depth don’t pan out as hoped, Krebs should get a legitimate opportunity soon after.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Sven Baertschi ($750K, UFA)
D Jake Bischoff ($717K, UFA)
D Nicolas Hague ($792K, RFA)
F Brett Howden ($885K, RFA)
F Mattias Janmark ($2MM, UFA)
F Keegan Kolesar ($725K, RFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Nicolas Roy ($750K, RFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)
D Zach Whitecloud ($725K, RFA)

Smith has been a fixture in Vegas’ top six for the past four seasons but saw his production drop off considerably last season.  His first three years provided good value for the Golden Knights but a similar showing in 2021-22 could result in his market value taking a dip.  As it stands, they may have a hard time being able to retain Smith beyond this contract.  Janmark was a surprise re-signing in that he was expected to get more elsewhere but instead, he opted to take a below-market deal to stay with Vegas.  If Smith does leave, Janmark could be one of the beneficiaries with some of that money going to him for 2022-23 and beyond.  Roy stepped into a bigger role last season and could double his current AAV next summer with a similar showing due to his arbitration rights while Howden, another center in that mix, will need to play closer to his first two seasons if he wants any kind of sizable raise.  Kolesar and Baertschi are both low-cost roster pieces and Vegas will need to have a few of those beyond this season whether it’s them or someone else.

McNabb is the only defenseman remaining in Vegas that was directly selected in expansion (not a related side deal).  He doesn’t put up the offensive numbers to command top dollar but solid stay-at-home blueliners have checked in over $3.5MM in recent years.  That’s certainly achievable if he makes it to the open market.  Hague had a nice first full NHL season on the third pairing but with their depth and cap situation, he’s probably in a similar role this coming season and looking at a cheap one-year deal next summer to preserve short-term flexibility.  Whitecloud isn’t as established but unlike Hague, will at least have arbitration rights in the offseason to help him in negotiations where he could push to double his AAV.  Bischoff is tied for the lowest AAV in the entire league which will have him in the mix at times as well.

Two Years Remaining

G Laurent Brossoit ($2.325MM, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($5MM, UFA)
F Max Pacioretty ($7MM, UFA)

Pacioretty eclipsed the point per game mark for the first time in his career last season while leading the Golden Knights in goals for the second straight season.  As long as that’s happening, they’ll be happy with his contract.  Dadonov was one of the more puzzling trades of the summer.  Yes, he has helped on the power play in the past which is an area of concern but them using a big chunk of their cap space from the Marc-Andre Fleury trade on a winger who struggled last season is certainly a bit of a risk.

Brossoit has had two strong seasons out of the last three but in the middle was a particularly tough showing.  In all three, playing time was limited; his career-high in games played in a single season is only 21.  That led to him landing a cheaper deal than more proven backups which was necessary for cap reasons but this is going to put a lot more pressure on their starter in the process.  If Brossoit picks up where he left off in Winnipeg and can play a few more games though, he’s still young enough (28) to land a bigger deal two years from now.

Three Years Remaining

F William Carrier ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Marchessault ($5MM, UFA)
D Alec Martinez ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($2.75MM, UFA)

Marchessault has more than proven that his breakout year in Florida was no fluke as he has been a key piece of their attack for all four seasons.  That price tag for someone playing at greater than a 50-point pace is a pretty good return.  It’s not quite as good of one as having a top-six center making third line money which is what they have in Stephenson.  Leaving Washington has allowed him to become a reliable two-way second liner and a core player for them in the process whose absence in the Stanley Cup Semifinal was felt.  Carrier doesn’t produce a lot but is an effective role player with plenty of sandpaper and those are the fourth liners that often get paid in free agency.  They could fill that spot with someone cheaper if they had to but Carrier brings an element few others up front do for Vegas.

Had he made it to the open market, Martinez would have been arguably the most sought after blueliner (knowing that Dougie Hamilton’s price inherently limited his legitimate suitors) but he opted to pass on the opportunity to command a bigger deal in both price and term to stick around with Vegas.  He’s not a number one defender but slides nicely into a second or third role depending on his pairing and in either slot, he’s likely to provide strong value.  Considering his next contract will come in his age-37 season, a dip in pay will be coming at that time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F William Karlsson ($5.9MM through 2026-27)
G Robin Lehner ($5MM through 2024-25)
D Alex Pietrangelo ($8.8MM through 2026-27)
F Mark Stone ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
D Shea Theodore ($5.2MM through 2024-25)
F Alex Tuch ($4.75MM through 2025-26)

Stone has shown more of an offensive touch the last few seasons which, coupled with his elite defensive game, makes him one of the premier two-way forwards in the league.  It’s hard to call a $9.5MM contract a bargain but for what he’s able to do, it’s certainly not an overpayment either.  Karlsson hasn’t come close to matching his production from his first year with the Golden Knights but has been a quality top-six center since then and as contracts for that position continue to escalate quickly, having him locked in is a good thing.  Tuch’s inconsistency has limited him to more of a secondary role throughout his career but the skill and size are there to make him a consistent impact player and if that happens, his deal will quickly become a bargain.

Pietrangelo came as advertised as a legitimate number one blueliner and now finds himself on a cheaper contract than others in that role have signed in recent months.  It’s hard to find value in many high-priced deals but if the escalating salaries continue, that could very well happen.  There is definitely value in Theodore’s contract as he has continually improved to the point where it could be argued that he is a number one in his own right (though Pietrangelo logs the most minutes).  Having him signed for four more years making the type of money that some number three defenders get is a significant bargain.

Lehner was limited due to injury last season plus Fleury’s strong season but now he comes in as the undisputed starter and will be counted on to play a considerably heavier workload than he’s accustomed to.  He has shown flashes of being a higher-end starter and if he can provide that for the Golden Knights, he’ll be another high-value contract on their books.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Dylan Coghlan
F Nolan Patrick

Patrick was acquired in a swap of young underachieving centers with Cody Glass going the other way.  He was able to return last season after missing all of 2019-20 due to the pandemic but struggled.  That’s going to limit his earnings upside here and he’s likely only looking at a one-year deal once again.  As for Coghlan, he held his own in a reserve role last season while getting into 29 games.  That’s not enough for him to command much of a raise and the delay to this point may be more of trying to sort out the two-way portion of his next deal than haggling over NHL money.

Best Value: Theodore
Worst Value: Dadonov

Looking Ahead

Tuch’s LTIR placement to start the season will actually allow Vegas to afford to carry a full roster, meaning that they won’t need to be playing games below the maximum player lineup as they did on multiple occasions last season.  But when Tuch comes back (and assuming no one else is on LTIR by then), the cap crunch will return where they will be basically limited to carrying a minimum-sized roster and be susceptible to day-to-day injuries that force them below 18 skaters on game day.  GM Kelly McCrimmon is clearly comfortable with this situation as he opted to go this tight to the Upper Limit after seeing what happened last season and while that carries some risk, he has a pretty strong roster once again.

Beyond next season, it’s going to be more of the same for 2022-23.  Yes, they have about $14MM coming off the books next summer but have half of a defense corps to re-sign plus a forward or two so that money will be spent quickly.  Depending on what happens with Pacioretty and Dadonov, that could be an opportunity for Vegas to reshape their roster a little bit but even if they did that, they’d still be tight to the cap.  Get used to that being the case for the Golden Knights as it’s not about to change anytime soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $80,831,260 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Connor McMichael ($863K through 2023-24)

McMichael was able to get his feet wet in the pros a year early with the OHL not playing and he made the most of it with a strong showing with AHL Hershey.  He may have to wait until injuries strike to have a shot at playing but he has enough offensive upside to make an impact when he gets his opportunity next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nic Dowd ($750K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($750K, UFA)
D Michal Kempny ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Ilya Samsonov ($2MM, RFA)
D Justin Schultz ($4MM, UFA)
F Daniel Sprong ($725K, RFA)
G Vitek Vanecek ($717K, RFA)

Sprong has been inconsistent throughout his career but his AAV being below the cap ceiling creates some excess value for Washington to the point where he was protected in expansion.  He has reached double digits in goals in two of the last three seasons and a repeat showing next season could push him towards doubling his AAV or more which could ultimately price him out of their plans.  Dowd has done a nice job as their fourth line center but while he’s deserving of a raise, the Caps will need to keep that position at that price point to be able to afford their other contracts.

Schultz’s contract with Washington was somewhat of a surprise last fall but he had a nice bounce-back season.  A big raise next summer likely isn’t in the cards but if he can pick up the points at a similar level, he could land a similarly-priced deal.  Kempny had a year to forget, tearing his Achilles’ tendon and just as he was working his way towards a return in the minors, he was struck by an ice shoveler during a break in play, ending his season in the process.  He was providing pretty good value on his contract before that and will need to get back to a similar level and show he’s healthy in order to command interest next summer.  Irwin appears to be a candidate to bounce around as the seventh defenseman and the minors (pending him clearing waivers) as a way to bank a bit of extra room as the season progresses.

Samsonov had a tough sophomore year and with their salary cap situation, Washington was forced to go with a one-year bridge contract.  He will be eligible for arbitration next summer and a strong season could allow him to double his AAV or more.  Vanecek was re-acquired from Seattle and returns as arguably the biggest value contract for goaltenders in the league as he established himself as their starter last season at a price that is the lowest in the league in terms of AAV.  Also arbitration-eligible, he’s already heading for a significant raise and it’s quite unlikely that Washington will be able to keep both netminders beyond this coming season.

Two Years Remaining

F Lars Eller ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM, UFA)
F Conor Sheary ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($950K, UFA)

Eller has been a key part of Washington’s forward group for the past five seasons, splitting time between the second line and third line depending on their injury situation.  He’s a bit pricey on the third line but it’s a justifiable premium to pay and with the way the UFA market has been for centers, he can land a similar amount two years from now.  Hagelin has underwhelmed a little bit on this deal; he’s still an effective defensive player and a strong skater but his price tag is a bit much for someone in a limited role.  Hathaway’s physicality makes him a quality fourth liner and while he’s a bit expensive for that role, he has provided good value so far.  Sheary’s first season with Washington went well enough to land this two-year deal as a secondary scorer.  If he scores at a 20-goal pace again, this will be a nice bargain for them.

Orlov had a bit of a tough season but is still a fixture in their top four.  He’ll be 32 when his next deal kicks in and it wouldn’t be surprising if he is looking for a final contract at that time.  With the big commitments they already have on the books (more on them shortly), that may be difficult for Washington to do unless Orlov will take a discount to make that happen.  Jensen hasn’t been able to make the type of impact the Capitals hoped when they handed him this four-year deal and he’s someone they’d likely be willing to part with for cap flexibility purposes.  As for van Riemsdyk, he spent a lot of last season in the press box but is a capable depth piece at a low price tag which helped him get protected from Seattle.

Three Years Remaining

F Anthony Mantha ($5.7MM, UFA)
F Tom Wilson ($5.166MM, UFA)

Mantha was a bit of a surprising acquisition at the trade deadline with Washington paying a fairly high price to get him from Detroit (and clear out the rest of Richard Panik’s contract).  He made a good first impression but has been inconsistent for most of his career.  He will need to improve on that front if he wants a shot at a bigger contract in free agency.  When it comes to Wilson, his price tag looked excessive early on but with the way the market for power forwards has been (in part because of this deal), it holds up better now, especially since he’s frequently deployed in the top six.  But with his frequent near-misses with the Department of Player Safety, there will always be some risk when it comes to him potentially crossing the line and landing a hefty suspension that wouldn’t allow the Capitals to bring up a replacement with how tight they are to the Upper Limit.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $87,297,979 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F David Gustafsson (one year, $818K)
D Ville Heinola (three years, $863K)
F Kristian Vesalainen (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses:
Gustafsson: $57.5K
Vesalainen: $850K
Total: $907.5K

Vesalainen has yet to live up to his first-round draft billing but he spent most of last year up with Winnipeg either on the active roster or the taxi squad while also getting into four playoff contests.  Unless they need to fill his roster spot with a minimum-salaried player, he should have an opportunity at a full-time roster spot, albeit on the fourth line which won’t help his odds of reaching any of his incentives.  Gustafsson hardly played with Winnipeg last season but with the departure of many of their depth players, they’ll need to fill some of those spots from within which gives him an opportunity for a regular spot in the lineup.  Heinola is likely on the outside looking in to start the year but he has impressed in the minors and could push his way into a regular role as the season progresses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Nathan Beaulieu ($1.25MM, UFA)
G Eric Comrie ($750K, RFA)
F Andrew Copp ($3.64MM, UFA)
F Pierre-Luc Dubois ($5MM, RFA)
F Jansen Harkins ($725K, RFA)
F Riley Nash ($750K, UFA)
D Sami Niku ($725K, RFA)
F Paul Stastny ($3.75MM, UFA)

Last season was one to forget for Dubois.  After settling for a two-year bridge deal, he very quickly played his way out of Columbus with the Jets parting with both Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic to bring him in, shoring up their center depth in the process.  However, he struggled relative to expectations with Winnipeg, notching just 20 points in 41 games and was quiet in the playoffs with just three assists in seven contests.  A year ago, it seemed like his 2022 contract was going to be the big one that pushed him comfortably past the $7MM AAV mark, especially with his qualifying offer being $6.65MM.  But if he doesn’t have a much-improved 2021-22 season, that qualifying offer may be his best-case scenario.

Copp is coming off a career year but basically was forced into taking the one-year deal earlier this month to keep Winnipeg as close to cap-compliant as possible.  A repeat performance should push his AAV over the $4MM mark.  Stastny stayed in the top six for most of last season with Dubois often lining up on the wing and his price tag is a little below market value for a top-six center, especially compared to some of the other deals out there.  He’ll be going year to year from here on out and the Jets may need to use his money to re-sign Copp next summer.  Nash and Harkins will be role players and with their cap structure, the spots they occupy will need to be filled by minimum-salary players down the road whether it’s those two or other options.

The two defensemen in this category appear to be the possible cap casualties to free up the little bit of extra space to get cap compliant once LTIR is factored in (more on that later).  Beaulieu can hold his own on the third pairing but his spot could be filled by someone cheaper.  Niku, on the other hand, has been in trade speculation for a couple of years now.  They don’t want to lose him on waivers but with such limited recent action (he played just six games last season), they may have to settle for that if something doesn’t materialize over the next couple of months.

Comrie has bounced around on waivers the last couple of years but has hardly seen any NHL action.  That will change next season as their cap situation necessitated a minimum-salaried backup and he will get the first shot at being that player.  A good showing would certainly bolster his case heading into his final arbitration-eligible year but at the same time, he could potentially price his way out of Winnipeg if he did well enough to earn a sizable jump.

Two Years Remaining

D Logan Stanley ($900K, RFA)
F Dominic Toninato ($750K, UFA)

You could basically put any minimum-salaried forward into Toninato’s slot and perhaps there’s a signing or waiver claim to come that pushes him out.  In the meantime, the fact he received a two-year deal last month that includes a one-way second year suggests Winnipeg believes he can lock down a regular spot on the roster.

Stanley really improved his stock last season, going from someone who looked like he’d be on the outside looking in at a spot in the lineup to a player who was in more often than not, albeit in a limited role.  The small track record allowed the Jets to get him on a cheap bridge deal, one that won’t be very hard to out-perform.

Three Years Remaining

D Dylan DeMelo ($3MM, UFA)
D Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM, UFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.166MM, UFA)
F Bryan Little ($5.292MM, UFA)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.125MM, UFA)
F Blake Wheeler ($8.25MM, UFA)

Let’s get Little out of the way first.  He hasn’t played since early November 2019 and is still trying to recover from a perforated eardrum.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has suggested the expectation is that Little won’t be able to return.  He’ll head for LTIR, allowing Winnipeg to exceed the cap by up to his full cap hit (the cost of their active roster at the time of placement will determine exactly how much they can go over).

Very quietly, Scheifele has performed at a point-per-game average or better for each of the last five seasons, becoming a legitimate star in the process.  Considering centers with similar production have been getting considerably more, this is a contract that is well below market value.  The same can’t be said for Wheeler.  He still has been productive but his per-game output has declined the last couple of years and as he’s about to turn 35, there probably isn’t another 91-point season in his future.

Dillon was brought in just before free agency to shore up a back end that had yet to really recover from the 2019 exodus.  As long as he can log 20 minutes a game on the second pairing and provide his usual physicality and strong defensive presence, he’ll provide good value on his deal.  DeMelo is someone that they hoped could play on the second pairing last year when they signed him to that contract but he is better off on the third pairing with more sheltered minutes.  That makes the deal an overpayment which is why he was made available to Seattle in expansion.

Hellebuyck has been the NHL’s workhorse goaltender over the last four years.  He has faced the most shots in each of the last three seasons and led the league in minutes played four years ago.  He makes a bit more than most starters but the small premium is certainly justified and it allowed the Jets to go with a low-cost backup in Comrie knowing that he will once again handle a significantly higher workload than most starters will.

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