Salary Cap Deep Dive 2021

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings

November 19, 2021 at 6:46 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Hit: $69,670,981 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Lucas Raymond (three years, $925K)
D Moritz Seider (three years, $863K)
F Joseph Veleno (two years, $894K)
F Filip Zadina (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Raymond: $2.5MM
Seider: $850K
Veleno: $318.75K
Zadina: $850K

Raymond has been one of the top rookies in the league this season, hovering at or near the point per game mark as we approach the one-quarter mark. Obviously, at that pace throughout his entry-level deal, he’d be bypassing the bridge deal altogether and signing a substantial long-term pact. In the short term, he’s well on his way to earning his $850K of ‘A’ bonuses while the ‘B’ ones (which aren’t known publicly) will be difficult to get based on those options. Zadina hasn’t had anywhere the type of impact Raymond has despite being a high pick as well. He’s a regular but is still in the middle six and players like that typically wind up with a short-term prove-it deal; it’s hard to think he’ll be an exception. On the bonus front, he might be able to land an ‘A’ bonus or two but maxing out is unlikely. Veleno has been up and down in the early going this season which doesn’t help his bonus chances. He’s a role player at this point and while that could change, it seems unlikely that will happen by next season so a bridge is likely for him as well.

Seider’s debut had long been anticipated and for good reason as he has wasted little time working his way into a significant role that sees him log significant minutes in all situations. Offensively, he is one of the top-scoring blueliners in the league already. A very strong rookie in his own right, he and Raymond could very well be battling it out for the Calder Trophy this season. Seider is quite likely to reach his ‘A’ bonuses this season if he can stay healthy. Looking further down the road, the 20-year-old basically feels like a lock to sign a long-term second contract that buys out some UFA years. He is the pillar on the back end for Detroit to build around.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Danny DeKeyser ($5MM, UFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Sam Gagner ($850K, UFA)
G Thomas Greiss ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2MM, UFA)
F Carter Rowney ($825K, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($2MM, UFA)
D Troy Stecher ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Mitchell Stephens ($738K, UFA)

Fabbri is a particularly interesting case when it comes to his next contract. He has been more consistent since joining Detroit after St. Louis traded him but he still has been more of a secondary scorer. Add that to his lengthy injury history and there’s a lot for him to play for this season. A small bump into the mid-$3.5MM range is doable but he’ll need a big platform year to get a sizable long-term commitment. Namestnikov is off to a strong start offensively by his standards which is always notable in a contract year. His last trip through the open market wasn’t great and as someone that’s better in a depth role, it’s hard to see him getting back to the $4MM he had on his previous contract. Gagner has been going with low-cost one-year deals for the last two seasons and landing another one of those is certainly possible if Detroit wants to keep him around. Rowney was a late addition coming off an injury-riddled 2020-21 campaign. He has been a depth piece this season and that could very well make him a PTO candidate next summer. Stephens was brought in with the hope that a full-time role could help his development but that hasn’t happened yet. He’s young enough to still be tendered a qualifying offer but his next contract shouldn’t be for too much more than that unless his production increases when he returns from his lower-body injury.

The word that comes to mind when looking at the defensemen in this category is ’placeholder’. Detroit took on Leddy’s contract from the Islanders with an eye on flipping him closer to the trade deadline if they’re out of the race. From his perspective, his value has dipped in recent years as his production has ticked downward aside from a brief rebound last season. He’s not heading for a significant drop but a multi-year commitment in the high $4MM/low $5MM range may be his ceiling in the summer. DeKeyser has been a fixture in Detroit’s lineup for close to a decade but he’s more of a role player than an impact one now. Getting half of his current price tag might be attainable but not much more. Staal accepted a big pay cut to stick around and he has been closer to a number six blueliner than a top-four one. Another dip is certainly possible. Stecher has been limited due to injuries and hasn’t had a big role when he has been in but he’s still fairly young (27) and as a right-shot rearguard, he will get some chances. A small increase is realistic for him. Everyone on this list is a viable trade candidate (pending waiving trade protection) and their fortunes could change depending on what team they wind up on.

Greiss is another of the stopgap goaltenders that Detroit has employed over the last few seasons over going after a high-priced starter. His first season went well (his start this year, not so much) but overall, he is a capable platoon goalie. We’ve seen the price tag for those goalies go up lately so if Greiss can rebound, a similar price tag next year is certainly a possibility. He’ll be eligible for bonuses on a one-year deal as he’ll be 36 in January so teams may prefer to go year-to-year with him from now on.

Two Years Remaining

F Tyler Bertuzzi ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Adam Erne ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Dylan Larkin ($6.1MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($3MM, UFA)
D Jordan Oesterle ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Givani Smith ($750K, RFA)
F Pius Suter ($3.25MM, UFA)

One of the risks Detroit took when they gave Larkin this deal was that it took him to UFA eligibility in his prime as he’ll only be 26 when he tests the market (he qualifies for UFA status based on service time, not age). Top-six centers are always in high demand and as a capable two-way player, he could be looking at a sizable raise even if his current point-per-game production doesn’t quite hold up between now and then. He won’t approach the $10MM mark but something in the high-$7MM/low-$8MM range is definitely doable.

Bertuzzi is healthy after an injury-riddled 2020-21 campaign, one that basically tanked his case for a long-term extension. The trade-off is that he will also hit the open market in his prime at 28 where he should be able to land that long-term contract with another million or two on the AAV. Suter came over after a strong rookie season from Chicago where they ultimately balked at the arbitration risk that would have come with a qualifying offer. Given his relative inexperience, he’ll need to establish himself on the second line with commensurate production to have a shot at really cashing in two years from now. Otherwise, he’ll be in line for something closer to this contract in a bottom-six role. Erne has shown flashes of offensive upside but hasn’t yet been able to establish himself as a full-time top-six player. He has, however, become a capable third-line physical winger and that alone should give him at least a small boost two years from now. Smith is a low-cost role player whose price tag shouldn’t creep too much higher than it is now unless he establishes himself as more of an impact player.

Oesterle is yet another placeholder on the back end. He has worked his way from being a player on the fringes to being a regular heading into this season which helped him land some security but as someone that’s still more of a sixth defender, his price tag shouldn’t get much higher than this.

Nedeljkovic was brought over from Carolina after the Hurricanes didn’t want to pay this type of price for someone with only a couple of strong NHL months under his belt. Still, with Detroit’s situation between the pipes, it was a more than reasonable move for GM Steve Yzerman and in the early going, Nedeljkovic has been decent. If he winds up continuing to platoon over the next couple of years, his earnings upside will be capped as he’ll be in that group that has recently been signing for in the mid-to-high-$3MM range so there will be a lot riding on how he performs this season and next.

Three Years Remaining

D Filip Hronek ($4.4MM, RFA)
F Michael Rasmussen ($1.46MM, RFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($5.25MM, UFA)

Vrana was quite impressive following his acquisition as part of the Anthony Mantha trade which helped him turn around his season where he had underwhelmed a bit with Washington. Notably, the deal only bought out one year of UFA eligibility, allowing him to hit the market in his prime as well. This season is basically a write-off due to his shoulder injury so how he performs in the next two will go a long way of showing whether or not he can become a consistent top liner. Rasmussen has underwhelmed offensively in the early going of his career but on this contract, he won’t need to produce much to provide surplus value. As a third-line center, he’s making a fair bit below market value for someone in that role and they’ll have more time to determine if he will just be a role player moving forward or a long-term piece to try to build around.

Hronek is an interesting case having been healthy scratched earlier in the season. Heading into this season, he was unquestionably Detroit’s top rearguard and even with Seider’s strong performance, Hronek leads the team in ATOI. Having a number one blueliner on this type of deal with at least one more year of team control after makes him one of their most valuable assets.

Buyouts

F Justin Abdelkader ($2.3056MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23, $1.0556MM from 2023-24 through 2025-26)
D Frans Nielsen ($4.25MM in 2021-22, $500K in 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Richard Panik ($1.375MM through 2022-23)

Best Value: Hronek
Worst Value: DeKeyser

Looking Ahead

If you’re thinking there was a section missed with no one being listed as being signed for four years or longer, it wasn’t missed – there just aren’t any active players signed beyond three seasons; Abdelkader’s buyout is currently their longest commitment. That gives Yzerman about as blank a canvas as possible to work with over the next few seasons.

The key for the Red Wings will be ensuring that their top ‘veterans’ (Larkin, Bertuzzi, and Vrana) are either retained or replaced when their deals come to an end. That group coupled with long-term pacts for Raymond and Seider should represent the core for them to really emerge from their rebuild. With the lack of long-term commitments on their books, Detroit should be well-positioned to try to add to that group as well when the time is right.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

November 14, 2021 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $87,327,789 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Evan Bouchard (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Bouchard: $850K

Bouchard has seemingly been on the cusp for a while as Edmonton has slow-played his development and that patience looks to be well-rewarded as the 22-year-old is off to a nice start this season and has secured a spot in their top four. An offensive blueliner, Bouchard will have a shot at putting up some good numbers over the next two seasons which could push his bridge contract into the $2MM territory; their cap situation will likely force them to go with a short-term deal, similar to their other youngsters. Bouchard is also on pace to hit multiple ‘A’ bonuses (each worth a quarter of that bonus total above) and with them being well into LTIR, anything he reaches will come off the 2022-23 cap.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Josh Archibald ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Benson ($750K, RFA)
G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Brendan Perlini ($750K, RFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($1.175MM, RFA)
D Kris Russell ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Colton Sceviour ($750K, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($785K, UFA)
F Kyle Turris ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Kailer Yamamoto ($1.175MM, RFA)

Puljujarvi’s second stint with Edmonton has gone a lot better than the first as the 2016 fourth-overall pick has now been able to lock down a spot in their top six and is off to quite the start this season which is always notable in a contract year. He’ll have arbitration eligibility and if he even comes close to the point per game mark (he’s currently at 1.2), his next deal could be in the $5MM or more range. If he drops back a bit, tripling his current AAV could be the ceiling on a short-term pact. Yamamoto was basically stuck signing a one-year deal for cap reasons, giving him the chance to outperform it and hit arbitration with a strong case. That hasn’t happened just yet as he’s off to a quiet start. Still, his performance in 2019-20, even in a shortened stint, could loom large with an arbitrator; doubling his current price tag on a one-year deal certainly isn’t out of the question.

Turris looked to be a decent value signing when he joined Edmonton but that didn’t exactly go as planned. He struggled to stay in the lineup last season, ultimately clearing waivers. As things stand, he’s a possible PTO candidate next summer. Archibald’s health situation has put his future for next season in question while Perlini and Sceviour are holding down roster spots that will need to be kept at the minimum. Benson is just getting his feet wet and has been viewed as one of their better prospects in the past but he’ll need to establish himself as a regular if he wants to get more than the minimum next season.

Russell is finally now at a price tag that’s a better fit for the role he has. He’s clearly a depth defender at this point of his career and aside from shot blocks, doesn’t bring much to the table in terms of stats. Another dip is certainly possible and as he’ll be on a 35+ contract next year, it’s likely he’ll be going year to year from here on out.

Koskinen’s contract has not aged well for the Oilers as his inconsistency has limited him to a backup role at a high price tag for someone in that role. He’s off to a stronger start this season which should keep him on the NHL radar (and, for the time being at least, takes him out of the ‘Worst Value’ category) but unless he really ascends to the number one spot, he could check in closer to half of his current price tag. Stalock’s not expected to play this season due to a heart condition so at this point, it seems unlikely he’ll have a contract for next year unless he recovers and is able to return. Even at that, it’d almost certainly be a low-cost one-year pact.

Two Years Remaining

D Duncan Keith ($5.538MM, UFA)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)
D Slater Koekkoek ($925K, UFA)
F Devin Shore ($850K, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($2.2MM, UFA)

Shore did well enough last season to earn a two-year commitment to play a similar depth role for Edmonton. His spot is another one that they’ll need to keep cheap based on their salary structure and if he remains in and out of the lineup or on the fourth line, Shore won’t be able to command much more of a raise.

Keith was brought over from Chicago in the offseason in a move that raised some eyebrows in terms of whether or not that was the best use of their limited cap space. He’s playing a more limited role which is more suited to where he is at this stage of his career and is doing okay early on. Considering he’ll be turning 40 soon after reaching free agency in 2023, it’s fair to wonder if there will be another contract for him let alone how much lower it would be. Koekkoek opted to stick around after testing free agency and as a low-minute depth defender, it’s hard to imagine his price tag going up much moving forward. Klefbom is once again out for the season and on LTIR and at this point, it’s reasonable to suspect that will be the case again next year and if that happens, his career is basically over.

Smith was brought back last summer after their other attempts to upgrade between the pipes didn’t pan out. It worked out quite well for Edmonton in the end as the 39-year-old basically had his best season in almost a decade, earning him a two-year deal which is an outcome few would have expected a year and a half ago. Even if he’s just a backup over that span, that’s still below market value for a decent second-stringer so the Oilers should get good value from his deal.

Three Years Remaining

D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Warren Foegele ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Zack Kassian ($3.2MM, UFA)

Kassian’s contract was risky from the moment it was signed and the flattened Upper Limit hasn’t helped. When he’s at his best, he’s a capable top-six power forward and is well worth the money. When things aren’t going as well, he’s on the fourth line at times and isn’t close to worth it. The inconsistency makes it hard to move him and the dimension he brings has made the Oilers want to keep him. That all said, it’s difficult to envision a bigger contract in three years. Foegele came over in an offseason trade from Carolina and remains in the same type of role he had with the Hurricanes. Based on the most recent UFA market, there should be some room for a raise on Foegele’s next deal but playing in the top six more consistently would certainly bolster his chances of getting an AAV in the $3MM range.

It’s quite something how Barrie’s value has changed in recent years. In 2019, he was coming off a career year with Colorado and it looked like an inevitability that he was heading for a significant raise on his then-$5.5MM AAV. But things didn’t go well following a trade to Toronto and his market dropped, resulting in the one-year deal he had last season. Even though his production jumped back up (to even better per-game numbers than he had with the Avs), he opted to forego testing the open market again, instead inking this new deal which is still lower than his last one in Colorado. His defensive limitations are well-known but if Barrie continues to put up the points, the Oilers will get a good return on this deal.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Cody Ceci ($3.25MM through 2024-25)
F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM through 2024-25)
F Zach Hyman ($5.5MM through 2027-28)
F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125MM through 2028-29)
D Darnell Nurse ($5.6MM in 2021-22, $9.25MM from 2022-23 through 2029-30)

It may seem a little odd to call the highest AAV contract in the history of the league a team-friendly one but it certainly seems like that’s the case when it comes to McDavid. A perennial MVP candidate, he has the ability to take over a game at any time. He’ll be 29 when he signs his next contract and it’s not unreasonable to think that he’ll eclipse his current price tag even with the expectation that he may be slowing down by the end of it. Draisaitl has been basically just as potent as McDavid the last few years at a considerably cheaper price tag. He’s a top center in his own right and his all-around game has improved the last few seasons as well. Draisaitl will be 30 when he signs his next deal and there’s a good case to make that he should earn McDavid money at that time.

Hyman’s contract is one that will vary in value as it goes along. He’s the right complementary piece for their top centers and Edmonton will get a good return in the first few years. But players that play the way Hyman does don’t typically age too well so those last couple of years could be an issue from a value standpoint. That said, they’re trying to win now and as far as fits go, he was one of the top ones in free agency. Nugent-Hopkins is in a similar situation. As long as he’s putting up top-six production, they’ll do quite well on this deal; that type of output should be sustainable for several years. But by the end, he may be more of a role player. Even so, the surplus value generated in the first few seasons should help make up for the last couple of years of the contract.

Nurse’s decision to go for basically a second bridge deal worked out perfectly for him. He had his best season in 2020-21, showing himself to be capable of being the top defender they need him to be. That, coupled with the big market for top rearguards this summer, helped earn him this contract. He will soon be one of the highest-paid defensemen in the league but if he plays at the level he did last season, he’ll be worth the money. Ceci’s contract was one of the more surprising ones. After having success with Pittsburgh in a more limited role, Edmonton inked the veteran to play the type of role he struggled with in the past while giving him a four-year commitment in the process. He’s young enough that the term won’t be an issue in terms of durability but banking on his performance last season carrying over carries some risk.

Buyouts

F James Neal ($1.917MM through 2024-25)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.5MM through 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Milan Lucic ($750K through 2022-23)

Best Value: Draisaitl
Worst Value: Keith

Looking Ahead

Get used to the Oilers being up against the cap ceiling as that’s not going to change anytime soon. The heavy lifting is largely done for GM Ken Holland with the bridge deals for Puljujarvi and Yamamoto being the next key items on his checklist. However, with not a lot of money coming off the books next summer and Nurse getting a $3.9MM raise, they may be in tough to keep the core intact, re-sign those two, and fill out the rest of the roster. If they can make it happen, it’s safe to say there won’t be any other major additions coming to their core for a little while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers

November 6, 2021 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $82,014,416 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Spencer Knight (two years, $925K)
F Anton Lundell (three years, $925K)
F Eetu Luostarinen (one year, $890K)
F Owen Tippett (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Knight: $1.85MM
Lundell: $850K
Tippett: $850K
Total: $3.55MM

Lundell has impressed in his early NHL action. Despite being used in a heavy defensive role, he has chipped in offensively and held his own in his own end. The fact he’s in this important of a spot on the depth chart now will certainly help his cause for his second deal; three years of being a key piece certainly looks better than being up and down which is where Tippett finds himself. Another first-round pick, Tippett hasn’t produced with much consistency in the NHL and has been up and down in the lineup with some time in the minors as well. Between that and their cap situation, he’s a strong candidate for a two-year bridge contract that buys both sides more time. Luostarinen doesn’t have the numbers to command much of a raise although his playing time (over 13 minutes a game in his two seasons with Florida) should be enough to push him over the $1MM mark.

Knight has done well since joining the Panthers late last season and it’s clear he’s their goalie of the future. Can he get enough playing time over the next two years to command starter money though? That may be iffy, especially being behind a high-priced netminder on the depth chart. Making the finances work on a long-term pact two years from now seems difficult given that Sergei Bobrovsky has five years left. As a result, a two-year bridge deal to keep the combined cost down makes sense for both sides, allowing Knight to get a bigger payday after that while Florida gets only the one season of a very pricey goalie tandem (assuming Bobrovsky is still around by then).

Both Knight and Lundell have a chance to hit some of their bonuses which is worth remembering with how tight they are to the salary cap; it creates the possibility of a carryover overage for next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($1.667MM, UFA)
D Kevin Connauton ($825K, UFA)
D Olli Juolevi ($750K, RFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($725K, UFA)
F Maxim Mamin ($975K, UFA)
F Mason Marchment ($800K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($2.7MM, UFA)
F Joe Thornton ($750K, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($2.533MM, UFA)

Vatrano has scored at least 16 goals in each of the last three seasons which certainly helps to justify his price tag but he has struggled early on this year, playing largely on the fourth line. That’s never a good sign in a walk year and could shift him from a chance of earning similar money on his next contract to having to take a bit less. That recent track record should still give him a decent market though. Acciari isn’t really the 20-goal player he was in 2018-19 but, when healthy, he’s a capable energy player but he hasn’t played this season due to an upper-body injury. The longer he sits, the more his value takes a hit. Mamin got pretty good money to come back from the KHL but has spent most of the season in the minors. He’s up now and with a one-way contract, he’s someone that could be a trade candidate if he can’t secure a regular spot. At this point, a return overseas seems likely. Marchment has turned into a bargain and is off to a nice start offensively while chipping in with plenty of physicality. While he’s a late bloomer, there will be a lot of interest if he gets to the open market and something in the $2MM range could be doable. Lomberg and Thornton are cheap end-of-roster pieces and will either be retained or replaced with someone at a similar price point next season. In Thornton’s case, it’ll probably be the latter.

Nutivaara’s value has dipped since joining Florida last year. He has been on the third pairing when healthy and is in his second stint on IR already this season. That’s a high price for a player that’s sixth or seventh on the depth chart and his next deal will reflect that and could check in at half of his current AAV. Connauton’s value is what it is at this point, a two-way contract that’s close to the minimum salary while Juolevi needs to establish himself as an NHL regular before having a chance at getting into the seven-figure range.

Two Years Remaining

D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM, UFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)

Huberdeau has very quietly produced more than a point per game in each of the last three seasons and is above that rate again in the early going this season. That’s impressive production for someone that is basically being paid second-line money. With some of the recent deals handed out to elite wingers, Huberdeau could push for more than $10MM a year although it wouldn’t be surprising if Florida tries to get him slightly below the $10MM that their captain just got. Hornqvist had a bounce-back 2020-21 campaign although he’s off to a tough start this season. The style he has played over the years tends to catch up with players as they age and considering he’ll be 36 when his next contract kicks in, it’s likely to be for considerably less than his current price tag as a result.

Weegar has worked his way up from being a role player on the third pairing to a very important part of Florida’s back end. He’s logging more than 24 minutes per game early on this season – top-pairing minutes – and his offensive game has shown considerable improvement as well. This has quickly become a very team-friendly contract and if he continues at the pace he’s on, he could be looking at coming close to doubling his price tag on the open market. Gudas is the player he was when he signed this contract – a third-pairing defensive player whose intimidation factor increases his value. As long as those two things remain true, there’s no reason to think his next contract will be much different than this one.

Three Years Remaining

F Anthony Duclair ($3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($2.667MM, UFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($6.5MM, UFA)

Reinhart was Florida’s big addition over the offseason from Buffalo although they weren’t able to come to terms on a long-term agreement. Instead, he signed what amounted to another bridge deal, one that bought a couple of years of team control and both sides time to see how he fits in. Speculatively, his future could be tied to Huberdeau’s; if they re-sign him, it may be hard to fit Reinhart in as well. If he gets to the open market, he’ll be well-positioned to earn another raise. Duclair has found a home in Florida after bouncing around. As a secondary scorer, he’s in a role that suits him more than a primary piece and the offensive environment that Florida has now gives him a chance to provide some good value on that deal.

Montour bounced back last season and did well in his limited time with Florida which earned him some job security. His role has dropped this season as he’s primarily been on the third pairing but as long as he can contribute offensively, he’ll still provide a reasonable return even if he winds up being more limited at even strength than anticipated. Still just 27, there’s still time for him to work his way up the depth chart as well. Forsling has been a nice waiver claim for the Panthers as he has gone from being a depth piece to one of their top blueliners. Considering he was on waivers back in January, the price tag may seem expensive but he is outperforming that new deal so far.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Aleksander Barkov ($5.9MM in 2021-22, $10MM from 2022-23 through 2029-30)
G Sergei Bobrovsky ($10MM through 2025-26)
D Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM through 2024-25)
F Carter Verhaeghe ($1MM in 2021-22, $4.167MM from 2022-23 through 2024-25)

Barkov has long been underpaid but that will change next season when his new deal kicks in. He has become a premier two-way center and while the price tag may be a bit high at the end when he starts to slow down, they’ve gotten more than enough value on his current contract to make up for that. He’s a franchise player and Florida did well to get him locked up well before the temptation of free agency presented itself. As for Verhaeghe, he was one of the best bargains in the league last season, producing at a top-line rate for a fourth line salary. He’s off to a nice start this year too and if he produces at close to that level beyond this season, he’ll still be a nice bargain even when his price tag goes up.

Ekblad’s contract had been the benchmark for defensemen coming off their entry-level deals until some of the ones signed over the last few months. Nonetheless, it’s one that has worked out pretty well for Florida in the end. He has become a legitimate number one defender and is at a price tag that is considerably below what other number ones are getting now. He’ll only be 29 when this contract expires so he’ll still have a shot at that big money.

It’s fair to say that Bobrovsky’s contract hasn’t worked out as planned. He struggled in his first two seasons in Florida although he has been dominant in the early going this season. They’re paying for him to be an elite goaltender and aside from a few weeks this year, he hasn’t provided that type of performance. His presence will likely force them to bridge Knight before looking at a possible buyout closer to the end of the deal unless his current level is one that he can sustain for a while.

Buyouts

G Scott Darling ($1.183MM through 2022-23)
D Keith Yandle ($2.341MM in 2021-22, $5.392MM in 2022-23, $1.242MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

G Roberto Luongo ($1.092MM in 2021-22)

Best Value: Verhaeghe
Worst Value: Bobrovsky

Looking Ahead

Florida’s cap situation is pretty tight right now with the team needing Acciari’s LTIR to stay compliant. They’re likely to hover close to the Upper Limit all season which will limit what GM Bill Zito can do in terms of in-season movement which makes the potential for Lundell and Knight’s bonuses to roll over to next season.

Unfortunately, things will be even tighter then. With Yandle’s dead cap charge going up by more than $3MM, that offsets some of the contracts coming off the books while Barkov and Verhaeghe’s extensions take care of the rest and then some. With nearly $78MM in commitments to just 14 players and a projected cap of $82.5MM, some cuts to the roster are going to need to be made at some point. s

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

November 3, 2021 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $81,040,835 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Michael Anderson (one year, $925K)
D Tobias Bjornfot (two years, $894K)
F Arthur Kaliyev (three years, $894K)
F Rasmus Kupari (two years, $863K)
F Vladimir Tkachev (one year, $925K)
F Gabriel Vilardi (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Anderson: $850K
Bjornfot: $212.5K
Kaliyev: $62.5K
Kupari: $212.5K
Tkachev: $850K
Vilardi: $850K
Total: $3.0375MM

Tkachev was brought in over the offseason to give Los Angeles another offensive threat but he has been in and out of the lineup so far. If he can lock down a regular spot in the middle six, he’ll have a chance to hit some of his ‘A’ bonuses but will have to work his way back from the minors first. The 26-year-old has one RFA-eligible year remaining but a return to Russia may be the likelier scenario if he can’t make his way into the lineup on a regular basis.

The other three forwards are much younger and figure to be part of the long-term plans. Vilardi’s first ‘full’ NHL season in 2020-21 was a decent showing and he was able to stay healthy which was notable. Given his injury history, he’s a safe bet for a bridge deal next summer while he’ll need to work his way into the top six to have a shot at some of his bonuses. Kaliyev has managed to hold down a spot in the lineup in the early going but could be shuffled to AHL Ontario at some point as well. As this is only officially the first year of his deal, a lot can change in terms of what his next deal will be. Kupari was a first-rounder in 2018 but has only seen limited NHL action so far. It’s hard to see him playing enough to reach an ‘A’ bonus and as a role player over a core piece, a short-term second contract is likely.

The same can’t be said for Anderson. He has quickly played his way into a spot in their top four and even with him burning the first year of the contract in a one-game appearance, he should have enough of a track record to have a case for a medium-term deal. His limited production will keep the price tag down (though his role could allow him to reach some of his bonuses) but something in the $2.5MM to $3MM range is definitely doable. Bjornfot has seen a lot of action on the third pairing so far in his career but he’s only 20 so it’s not much of a concern from a development perspective. That said, it doesn’t help from a leverage perspective; he’ll need a big 2022-23 campaign to avoid a bridge contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Andreas Athanasiou ($2.7MM, UFA)
F Dustin Brown ($5.875MM, UFA)
D Alexander Edler ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Grundstrom ($725K, RFA)
F Adrian Kempe ($2MM, RFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.55MM, RFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($800K, RFA)
D Olli Maatta ($3.333MM, UFA)*

* – Chicago is retaining another $750K of Maatta’s contract.

It’s interesting how the perception of Brown’s contract has changed. When it was signed, it seemed a little long but was market value for a power forward. Then his production dropped sharply and it looked like an anchor contract. However, over the past few years, he has rebounded to the point where the deal looks decent again. Turning 38 on Thursday, it’s quite unlikely Brown will come close to this on his next contract – if there is one – but all of a sudden, he has gone from someone that was a buyout candidate to someone that could stick around. In the meantime, if the Kings are out of playoff contention by the trade deadline, he’ll be an intriguing candidate to be moved and he only has limited trade protection.

Athanasiou’s value has been hard to peg down lately. Edmonton moved two second-rounders to get him, then the flat cap forced him to be non-tendered where he had to settle for $1.2MM last season before landing a big raise in his final arbitration-eligible year. There are flashes of the 30-goal upside he has shown before but he’ll need to do that consistently to fare better on the open market next summer. Kempe hasn’t been able to really build on his production from his entry-level deal; he’s an important middle-six piece but with his numbers being where they are, a longer-term pact next summer should be in the high-$3MM range. Lemieux hasn’t been able to move off the fourth line too often since joining the Kings last season which makes his $1.65MM qualifying offer plus arbitration rights a potential concern for next summer. Lizotte and Grundstrom have worked their way into regular roles which should give them a small raise but both should be around the $1MM range on their next contract.

Edler has been a nice complementary part of the back end in the early going this season and at 35, his days of logging heavy minutes are probably coming to an end. His age makes him a candidate to go year-to-year with the potential for bonuses. Another contract around this price point is certainly attainable. The same can’t be said for Maatta who, despite the injuries the Kings have had on the back end this season, can still barely crack their lineup. His stock has dropped sharply since he signed this deal coming off his entry-level contract and he’ll be looking at closer to the $1MM mark next summer unless he is able to play himself into a regular role.

Two Years Remaining

F Trevor Moore ($1.875MM, UFA)
F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM, UFA)

Moore earned this contract coming off a career-best year last season where he produced at a third-line level. That hasn’t been his role for most of his career and he’ll need to stay at that level if he wants to have a chance at a sizable raise on the open market. Wagner was signed to be an energetic role player after being a regular for most of last season but cleared waivers and is in the minors which doesn’t bode well for his future earnings.

Quick has been a fixture between the pipes for Los Angeles since 2008 but he has struggled considerably over the past few seasons relative to the level he played at in his prime. At this point, he’s more of a backup than a starter so the current value isn’t there. That said, this was a team-friendly contract at the beginning including when they won a Stanley Cup so it being an overmarket one now shouldn’t bother them much.

Three Years Remaining

F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Anze Kopitar ($10MM, UFA)
D Matt Roy ($3.15MM, UFA)
D Sean Walker ($2.65MM, UFA)

Kopitar has only finished one season above the point per game mark but has been one of the top two-way centers in the league throughout his career and is quietly off to a strong start offensively this season with 13 points through his first nine games. Considering he’ll be 37 when his next contract starts, it’s unlikely his next contract will be at this price tag but if he’s still a top-six player by then, his drop in pay may not be too sharp. Arvidsson is coming off a couple of quieter years with Nashville but will have an opportunity to re-establish himself as a legitimate top-six winger with the Kings. So far, so good on that front and his ability to sustain that over the next three years will determine if he winds up with an extra million or two or having to settle for a bit less as a middle-six piece.

Roy is more of a complementary defender that has been in and out of the top four depending on matchups and injuries and while that isn’t the most exciting of profiles, it’s one that landed him this deal and should give him an opportunity to beat it slightly in 2024 if all goes well. Right-shot blueliners are hard to come by and teams will pay a small premium for them. Walker is in a similar situation – he produces a bit more than Roy but doesn’t play quite as much and as they’re very close in age (both are 26), his potential is somewhat similar in terms of earnings. If he can become a full-time top-four player though, his production could boost him a bit higher than Roy.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Phillip Danault ($5.5MM through 2026-27)
D Drew Doughty ($11MM through 2026-27)
F Alex Iafallo ($4MM through 2024-25)
G Calvin Petersen ($858K in 2021-22, $5MM from 2022-23 through 2024-25)

Danault was a big addition for Los Angeles this summer although the long-term fit may be a bit questionable. Danault wanted to be a top-six forward and while he has that opportunity now, Turcotte, Vilardi, Byfield, and Kupari are all in the system which could push him into a higher-priced third center role over the next couple of years which could swing this to an above-market deal at the same time. Iafallo was able to agree on this deal before the last trade deadline and as someone that has seen a lot of time on the front line over the last few years, it’s a team-friendly contract, particularly with some of the contracts that were handed out over the summer.

Doughty’s deal was briefly the record-holder for the highest AAV for a defenseman and when he was producing upwards of 50-60 points and logging over 27 minutes a game. He hasn’t gotten near those levels since then. There’s no denying that Doughty is their top defenseman but unless he can get back to those levels, it’s also going to be a deal that’s well above market value.

Petersen is in the final year of his current contract which was signed when he hadn’t yet established himself as an NHL goaltender. That has since happened and this new commitment works essentially as a later bridge deal. It cements him as the starter for now – which was already happening anyway – but also doesn’t lock them into a long-term commitment if another option presents itself down the road. As for Petersen, it’s an impressive payment for someone who has yet to play in 60 career NHL games.

Buyouts

D Dion Phaneuf ($1.0625MM through 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Jeff Carter ($2.636MM in 2021-22)

Salary Cap Recapture

F Mike Richards ($900K in 2021-22 and 2022-23, $700K in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $600K in 2025-26 and 2026-27)

Best Value: Iafallo
Worst Value: Doughty

Looking Ahead

Cap space is at a bit of a premium this year which will limit GM Rob Blake as he looks to find a replacement for Walker who is out for the year and is LTIR-eligible. That said, they’re still in better shape than more than half the league on that front.

Moving forward, they’re in good shape in terms of having enough money coming off the books to sign their promising youngsters as their entry-level deals expire while still having some flexibility to try to retain players or add to the core. Better days are going to be on the horizon for the Kings and they’ll be well-positioned to make a splash or two at some point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

October 27, 2021 at 8:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $78,453,086 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

Minnesota has some players who could see time with them at some point this season in Matt Boldy (two years, $881K) and Marco Rossi (three years, $894K) but neither figure to play prominent roles or reach their Class A bonuses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Jordie Benn ($900K, UFA)
F Nick Bjugstad ($900K, UFA)
F Kevin Fiala ($5.1MM, RFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Greenway ($2.1MM, RFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($725K, RFA)
D Jon Merrill ($850K, UFA)
F Rem Pitlick ($918K, RFA)
F Victor Rask ($4MM, UFA)
F Nico Sturm ($725K, UFA)

The decision the Wild made to take Fiala to arbitration was a bit of a curious one. While it ensured he’d be with the team for training camp, it also gave him the opportunity to elect a two-year term that would walk him right to UFA eligibility. That didn’t happen as they settled on this one-year pact which still gives Fiala the right to opt for arbitration next summer and take another one-year deal. It also gives Minnesota one more opportunity to try to lock him up long term but with the dead cap money they have on the books for the next few years, fitting it in could be tricky. This situation will be one to monitor.

Rask’s contract is finally set to come off the books after being acquired in a trade two years ago that hasn’t worked out well at all. As someone who is better suited for a very limited role now, he may have to settle for a quarter of his current rate next summer. Greenway’s bridge deal gave the Wild some extra short-term flexibility and a chance to evaluate his potential for being a long-term fixture. He has shown some improvement but he hasn’t quite established himself as a top-six piece either. A one-year deal that keeps him RFA-eligible next summer may be in Minnesota’s best interest. Bjugstad, Pitlick, and Sturm are all role players that will need to be willing to sign for similar low-cost rates to stick around.

Goligoski decided to sign with his hometown team in the offseason, taking a higher one-year deal over a multi-year pact that carried some longer-term security. He’s more of a fourth or fifth option at this stage of his career and could be looking at something closer to the $3MM mark next summer. Benn and Merrill are both depth defenders that didn’t have a lot of interest in free agency this year – it took a month for Benn to get this deal – and similar contracts are likely unless one of them plays their way into a bigger role.

Kahkonen has settled in as the backup but barring something unexpected, his experience in terms of NHL appearances is going to be limited – likely somewhere in the range of 55 career games. That’s not going to help his case in arbitration. He has two years of team control remaining so he either takes a one-year deal (likely in the $2MM range) or a multi-year pact closer to $3MM but the latter may be tough to afford.

Two Years Remaining

F Brandon Duhaime ($750K, RFA)
D Mathew Dumba ($6MM, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Kulikov ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($3.667MM, UFA)

Gaudreau has largely been in the minors in his career but a good showing in limited action with Pittsburgh took him from a two-way deal to two years at seven figures. He’ll need to lock down a regular role in each season to land that contract in 2023. So far, so good on that front. Duhaime earned the final spot on the roster in training camp and he has done well on the fourth line. He’ll get a small raise on his next deal with the next increase in the NHL minimum salary and could get a bit more than that if he can stick with the Wild and not be shuffled down to Iowa.

Dumba’s future is about as secure as it has been for a while as gone are the days that had him in frequent trade speculation. He’s one of their top blueliners and will only be 29 when his deal is up so a max-term contract or close to it shouldn’t be off the table. He should come in a tier below some of the big deals handed out this past summer but something that pushes the AAV near the $8MM range certainly seems doable at this point. Kulikov makes a bit much for the spot on the third pairing he currently occupies but if he can hold his own in the top four when injuries arise, they’ll get an okay return on this deal.

Talbot is well below the median salary for starters but did well in that role last season. Even so, it’s hard to forecast a guaranteed raise for him since he’ll be 36 on his next deal and may be better off with one-year deals with incentives that could push the total compensation around the $4MM mark; those aren’t available on multi-year pacts for 35-plus players.

Three Years Remaining

F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

Zuccarello had a quiet first season but was certainly better in 2020-21, producing at a level that’s close to the top line which is what he’s being paid to do. He’ll turn 37 for his next contract and is another candidate to do a one-year, incentive-laden deal at that time, especially if his production drops off towards the end of the contract. Foligno’s contract seemed a little high when it was signed back in January but with how the UFA market went over the summer, it’s a market-value contract. Whether or not he can stay healthy will go a long way towards what his next deal will be as staying in the lineup has been an issue and the style he plays doesn’t always age well. Hartman has been able to work his way up the depth chart compared to where he was in his previous stops and a middle-six winger signed for $1.7MM for three years is pretty good value although he’ll need to step up his production past the 20-point mark to have a shot at landing a much pricier deal in 2024.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Jonas Brodin ($6MM through 2027-28)
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25MM through 2028-29)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM through 2025-26)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.575MM through 2026-27)

Kaprizov’s contract took a long time to get done even though the money and term had been expected for a while. It’s a player-friendly pact that gives him a shot at a potentially higher contract on a near max-term deal if he can establish himself as a high-end scorer for more than an abbreviated season. If he gets to that level, Minnesota could get some surplus value here but the contract favors the player more than the team. Eriksson Ek’s price tag stands out considering his career high in points is 30 but he is indisputably the Wild’s top center and that career best in points was last season. There’s still some offensive upside and with the role he plays, he doesn’t have to light up the scoresheet for the contract to be justified. Even if he can get to 40 points consistently, it’s a fair market contract. Anything more offensively and the team will be loving the bargain.

Spurgeon hasn’t been getting number one minutes the last couple of years which hurts the value here a little bit as he isn’t a significant offensive threat. Right now, it might be just a small overpayment but that could change as he ages. Meanwhile, GM Bill Guerin may want to use this as the benchmark for Dumba’s contract but that could be a tough sell. Brodin did well on this contract considering he’s primarily a shutdown blueliner that chips in with 20 points or so each year. The price tag for a third defender is reasonable based on the role but this is another contract that could look a bit pricey down the road.

Buyouts

F Zach Parise
D Ryan Suter

Both players have identical costs – $2.372MM this season, $6.372MM in 2022-23, $7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, and $833K from 2025-26 through 2028-29.

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Eriksson Ek
Worst Value: Rask

Looking Ahead

Guerin better enjoy the flexibility he has this season as it’s about to go away in a hurry with $12.7MM in dead cap space on the books next season and $14.7MM for two years after that. They will basically be trying to put together a competitive roster with an actual roster payroll that will be closer to the Lower Limit than the Upper Limit. Tough decisions will soon need to be made as a result. In the meantime, if Minnesota looks to add this season, it will almost assuredly have to be someone on an expiring contract. It’s a new look and new dynamic for the Wild but the costs of that change are about to really be felt starting next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

October 16, 2021 at 11:35 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $71,926,142 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Cody Glass (one year, $863K)
F Philip Tomasino (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:
Glass: $850K

Glass was brought in as part of the three-team trade that sent Ryan Ellis to Philadelphia. His first two professional seasons haven’t gone as expected as he failed to lock down a regular spot with Vegas, eventually leading to the swap. He’ll get that chance with the Predators but it’s hard to see him doing so well to bypass a bridge contract in the process. From a bonus perspective, he’ll need to work his way into a top-six role if he wants to have a shot at hitting some of his ‘A’ bonuses. Tomasino had a great showing in the AHL last season which certainly played a role in him being slotted in as a regular going back to the summer when they moved Viktor Arvidsson. He has the potential to be an impact scorer although projecting his next deal this early in his career isn’t really possible.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Matt Benning ($1MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, UFA)
F Nick Cousins ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($2MM, UFA)
D Ben Harpur ($800K, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.3MM, RFA)
G David Rittich ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($725K, RFA)

Forsberg’s contract situation garnered some attention recently when he suggested that his intent is to play out his deal and then decide what he wants to do from there. That’s certainly within his rights but it’s not ideal for the Predators. As their franchise forward, they’re going to want to know his intentions to know whether or not they’ll be moving him in the coming months which makes his case one to keep an eye on. From a next contract standpoint, he’s in line to get a bit more than his current AAV but, barring a big 2021-22 season, it won’t be a substantial jump. Gabriel Landeskog’s deal in Colorado (eight years, $7MM AAV) feels like the type of deal Forsberg might want to target if he’s looking to do a max-term contract.

Kunin’s first season with Nashville was similar to his last one with Minnesota – there were flashes of offensive upside and others where he, like many Predators, struggled offensively. At this point, it’s unlikely the two sides could find middle ground on a long-term commitment so the likelier scenario is that this season plays out to give them a better idea of what’s to come. A one-year deal that keeps him RFA-eligible and gives him a small raise is certainly a viable option. Grimaldi wasn’t really able to duplicate his 2019-20 performance and is more of an in-and-out depth player. His next deal could be cut in half accordingly. Cousins is a steady fourth liner that can move up when needed and while there is definitely a need for that around the league, it’s a spot on the depth chart where teams are trying to save. His next contract should come around this price tag as a result. Trenin was a decent fourth liner last season and should have a similar role this year. He’s arbitration-eligible but with a limited track record, it shouldn’t play much of a role. He could crack the $1MM mark but not by much more unless he moves up the depth chart.

Borowiecki missed time last season due to a concussion as well as some mental health struggles and when he was in Nashville’s lineup, he had a very limited role. Unless he’s able to lock down some more ice time, he’ll be hard-pressed to get the same money on the open market next summer. Benning stepped in nicely on the third pairing last season with an uptick in ice time. At this point, he’s still young enough to be viewed as a late-bloomer so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a small raise next summer even though he didn’t fare well in his first trip in free agency in 2020. Harpur cleared waivers at the start of last season and frequently bounced back and forth between the NHL roster and the taxi squad but managed to play a regular role in the second half of the season. He has bounced around so far and is better off as a depth player so it’s unlikely he’ll command much more money next summer.

Two Years Remaining

D Dante Fabbro ($2.4MM, RFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55MM, RFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($750K, RFA)

Olivier brought some energy to the fourth line last season, earning this one-way deal as a result. Unless he can work his way into a regular spot though, he’s someone that should stay close to the minimum.

Myers was the centerpiece of the Ellis trade but is coming off a disappointing season with Philadelphia. He’ll have the chance to rebound while playing a significant role with the Preds. Assuming he does well in a top-four role, he’ll be in good shape to land a long-term contract in 2023 well beyond his $3.06MM qualifying offer. Fabbro’s sophomore campaign wasn’t the best either which put him squarely in bridge contract territory this summer, one that he should be able to easily outperform.

Three Years Remaining

F Eeli Tolvanen ($1.45MM, RFA)

This was one of the more surprising contracts of the summer by the fact it was this low. Granted, Tolvanen doesn’t have a lot of NHL success under his belt but as a first-round pick in 2017, there’s still some upside. Nashville wants to feature him in a bigger role this season and there’s a very good chance that this will wind up being a very team-friendly deal while still keeping him under team control at the end of it.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM in 2021-22; $6.25MM through 2025-26)
F Mikael Granlund ($5MM through 2024-25)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Roman Josi ($9.059MM through 2027-28)
G Juuse Saros ($5MM through 2024-25)
F Colton Sissons ($2.857MM through 2025-26)

The Predators sent Seth Jones to Columbus to land Johansen in 2016, then signed him to this contract a year later, thinking they had their center of the future. That didn’t happen and Johansen has been more of a secondary scorer the last couple of years. That resulted in them adding Duchene where history basically repeated itself. Both players are on deals that are now well above market value and Nashville will be hard-pressed to get out of these contracts while getting any sort of value in return. Granlund had to settle for a one-year deal last season but did better this time around. Based on his recent performance, it’s a small overpayment but a bounce-back season is certainly realistic which would improve their value on the deal. Sissons is a valuable role player whose production is on the lower end. The AAV is a little on the high side but they clearly wanted him locked up for the long haul and they have the cap space to absorb the premium.

Josi was one of the top bargains in the NHL for several years before this deal brought him back to market value. He’s a legitimate top defender and based on the way the market went this summer, it’s a fair price for Josi who figures to be a fixture moving forward even if Nashville goes in more of a rebuilding direction. The same can be said for Ekholm who is on a bargain deal this season before his recently-signed extension kicks in next year. He has been their number two rearguard in recent years and $6.25MM for that is certainly fair value compared some of the other contracts that have been signed.

Saros is now the undisputed starter in goal with Pekka Rinne hanging up his skates. He was already easing into that role but the fact they still platooned for large parts of the last two seasons helped keep the price tag for Saros down. He’s right at the median mark in terms cost for starting goalies and with how he played last year, he’s certainly in the top half of starters league-wide. This should be another team-friendly contract to help offset those of Johansen and Duchene.

Buyouts

D Steven Santini ($275K in 2021-22)
F Kyle Turris ($2MM per year through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Tolvanen
Worst Value: Duchene

Looking Ahead

From a salary cap perspective, it’s pretty much smooth sailing for the Preds for the foreseeable future. Unless they’re operating under a stricter budget, GM David Poile should have plenty of wiggle room to commit to a long-term extension to Forsberg and try to add some pieces if they want to try to quickly emerge from this reset they seem to be undergoing. And if they go the other way into more of a pure rebuild, then cap space won’t be an issue for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

October 8, 2021 at 6:37 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 6 Comments

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $85,229,188 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Noah Dobson (one year, $894K)
F Oliver Wahlstrom (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Dobson: $537.5K
Wahlstrom: $537.5K
Total: $1.075MM

Wahlstrom managed to play in 44 regular season games in his rookie campaign despite a whopping 26 assignments to the taxi squad last season. He established himself as a capable secondary scorer and didn’t look out of place in his first taste of playoff action either. Wahlstrom should have a similar role this season if he can overcome a quiet training camp and with New York’s cap situation, it’s unlikely that he will get a long-term deal and unless he cracks the top six, he may be in tough to earn much on the bonus front. A bridge deal that buys them short-term flexibility is expected.

The same can be said for Dobson who was a regular for most of his sophomore year. He is improving but is still likely to be more of a depth player than a core piece in 2021-22 which makes it unlikely that he’d be able to command the type of money to justify a long-term contract or hit most of those bonuses. He’ll be bridged as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Sebastian Aho ($725K, RFA)
D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Zdeno Chara (terms undisclosed, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Andy Greene ($750K, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
F Zach Parise (terms undisclosed, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($5MM, UFA)
G Cory Schneider (terms undisclosed, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Greene: $250K

Let’s start with Chara and Parise. Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello has been quite secretive in contract disclosures so the full terms haven’t come out yet. The expectation is that they’re for the minimum of $750K with some performance bonuses but that hasn’t been confirmed. Schneider’s deal is also unknown but he played for the minimum last season on their taxi squad so it’s likely he signed for that as well. He may not play much – if at all – for the Isles this season but with Ilya Sorokin being waiver-exempt, sending him down and recalling Schneider to dip below their LTIR ACSL is a move we might see at times this season.

Clutterbuck has been a fan favorite for years and is an effective energy forward but for the role he plays, it’s a price tag that’s well above market value. His salary is down to $2.5MM and it wouldn’t be surprising if they try to sign him for a bit below that on a multi-year deal for next season. Komarov was brought in to play a similar role as Clutterbuck but hasn’t had anywhere near as much success. Something closer to the $1MM mark is likely when he hits the open market. Johnston has had a very limited role as one of the few remaining ‘enforcers’ in the league. He’s not that far off the minimum salary but he’ll be hard-pressed to command more than that in free agency.

Pulock was a victim of their cap situation as they weren’t able to afford to sign him long term. That walks the 27-year-old to the open market in the prime of his career (barring an extension, of course). He’d be a legitimate second defenseman on a lot of teams and that will create a strong market for his services where he could tack another couple million onto his current price. Hickey will once again be buried in the minors, clearing $1.125MM off their books and he won’t see a contract near that amount again. Greene will serve as a depth player and all of those bonuses will be hit if he plays in 20 games. Assuming he stays healthy, that should happen. Boychuk will be on LTIR once again as his playing days are over and that is how the Isles will get back into cap compliance.

Two Years Remaining

F Mathew Barzal ($7MM, RFA)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM, UFA)
F Richard Panik ($1.375MM, UFA)*
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM, UFA)

*-Detroit is retaining another $1.375MM of Panik’s contract

Barzal was also basically forced into a bridge deal, albeit the richest of its kind (at the time) since the Islanders didn’t have the cap room to pay him more than this at the time. He is their top center although his offensive production hasn’t been able to get back to his rookie-season level. He’s subject to the new qualifying offer rules so he’s looking at an offer of $8.4MM (120% of the AAV is lower than his final-season salary) with a long-term pact that buys out UFA years checking in a bit above that. Panik was brought in as a money balancer in the Nick Leddy trade. He’s likely to be a role player (if he makes the team at all; he could be a cap casualty) and it’s likely that his next deal will be closer to the $1MM mark.

Mayfield’s five-year, $7.25MM contract was a head-scratcher at the time considering he didn’t have a lot of experience but he opted for security and he has become quite the bargain for New York, playing his way into their top four for the price of a sixth defender. That should change on his next contract where he should be able to double his current price tag.

Varlamov was signed to be the starter between the pipes but Sorokin’s presence has changed that fairly quickly. With Sorokin being the goalie of the future, Varlamov is likely to be in a platoon role at best. He’s well above average in that role but it is a bit of an overpayment if he winds up in the 35-40-game range.

Three Years Remaining

F Josh Bailey ($5MM, UFA)
F Anthony Beauvillier ($4.15MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($1.5MM, UFA)
G Ilya Sorokin ($4MM, UFA)

Bailey hasn’t been able to hover near the point per game mark like he did in 2017-18 but he remains a capable top-six winger and at that price tag, the Isles are getting a pretty good return. He’ll be 35 in the first season of his next contract though which will limit his earnings upside three years from now. Beauvillier’s development has been slow and while he has shown flashes of top-end skill, the production hasn’t been there. This deal basically amounts to a second bridge contract and puts him in a spot to hit unrestricted free agency in his prime but he’ll need to establish himself as a consistent second liner if he wants to land a sizable raise at that time. Martin doesn’t put up many points anymore but provides plenty of physicality. His deal is likely close to what they’d like to do for Clutterbuck next summer while Martin will probably need to take another cut if he wants to re-sign when this deal is up.

Sorokin is someone that the Islanders had to wait a long time for before he came to North America and even after his rookie deal, he still hasn’t had a chance to prove much as he only played in 22 games last season. Still, New York committed a relatively hefty contract for someone with that little experience but it’s also a sign of how much they believe he’s their long-term goalie of the future. This deal gives him a chance to work his way into the number one role with Varlamov still in the fold while giving him an opportunity to earn a much bigger payday three years from now at a time where the Upper Limit should be starting to go up again.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Casey Cizikas ($2.5MM through 2026-27)
F Anders Lee ($7MM through 2025-26)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM through 2024-25)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($5MM through 2025-26)
F Kyle Palmieri ($5MM through 2024-25)
D Adam Pelech ($5.75MM through 2028-29)

Lee has only cracked the 30-goal mark twice (making it to 40 once) and doesn’t put up a lot of points overall so this is a deal that is a bit of an overpayment. However, he’s also their captain and as long as he puts up 25-30 goals a year, they’ll get a good enough return on the contract. Nelson very quietly finished third on the team in scoring last season and has picked up his offensive production in recent years. He’s now a capable top-six center and while his contract isn’t a bargain, it’s fair market value. Pageau’s extension (coupled with the picks they gave up to get him from Ottawa) came as somewhat of a surprise as he’s more of an ideal third-liner than a top-six piece but he’s also very good in his role. They’re paying a premium but he’s a great fit in that spot. Palmieri is coming off a tough year offensively but if he’s able to get back to the form he showed before in New Jersey, they’ll be happy with this deal. Cizikas’ term was a big surprise this offseason but they certainly value the impact he can provide, even when it’s from the fourth line. Strictly by the numbers, it’s an overpayment but they’re not paying him for that long for his offensive production.

Pelech has never been an offensive threat but he is a very reliable defensive defender who can log significant minutes. Those players still have plenty of value around the league and having a second or third defender locked up at this price point for that long should work out well for the Islanders.

Buyouts

G Rick DiPietro ($1.5MM through 2028-29, cap-exempt)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Mayfield
Worst Value: Komarov

Looking Ahead

It’s going to be a tough year from a cap perspective for the Islanders. They’ll be able to be compliant but with the team being in LTIR, they won’t be able to bank any space for in-season movement and while we don’t know what the bonuses for Parise and Chara are, it seems reasonable to think at least some of them are achievable which would then carry over onto their cap in 2022-23.

The good news is that there is some money coming off the books next summer in Komarov and Clutterbuck that can be re-allocated, likely towards trying to keep Pulock around and if they can do that, they can keep their core intact a little longer. Obviously, Barzal’s deal looms large and that’s where they will benefit from some of the medium-term deals they’ve handed out recently with the lower AAVs there ideally allowing them to lock up their top center and stay cap-compliant. They’ll be hovering around the Upper Limit for a while but the Islanders are in reasonable long-term shape cap-wise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

October 2, 2021 at 11:52 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $72,103,969 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Morgan Barron (two years, $925K)
F Adam Fox (one year, $925K)
F Kaapo Kakko (one year, $925K)
F Vitali Kravtsov (one year, $925K)
F Alexis Lafreniere (one year, $925K)
D Nils Lundkvist (three years, $925K)
D K’Andre Miller (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Barron: $850K
Fox: $850K
Kakko: $2.65MM
Kravtsov: $850K
Lafreniere: $2.85MM
Lundkvist: $850K
Miller: $350K
Total: $9.25MM

Kakko’s first two seasons haven’t gone particularly well as he hasn’t been able to produce with much consistency. That can certainly change but at this point, a shorter-term second contract seems likelier than a long-term pact while the bulk of those bonuses won’t be met. Lafreniere’s rookie campaign was similar to Kakko’s and he is one of New York’s big wild cards heading into this season. A strong sophomore year could put him in position to meet most of his ‘A’ bonuses at least, totaling $850K though the ‘B’ bonuses remain unlikely. Kravtsov had a good season in the KHL but was relatively quiet in his first taste of NHL action. Now only a year away from his second contract, a bridge deal should be forthcoming. Barron may wind up also seeing action in AHL Hartford but if he winds up being a regular, he’s likely not going to be able to hit most of his ‘A’ bonuses.

Fox, the Norris Trophy winner, is on quite the bargain of a contract. His sophomore season was a dominant one and it’s safe to say he’ll be using some of the recent contracts for Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen (eight years, $8.45MM AAV) and Colorado’s Cale Makar (six years, $9MM AAV) as comparables. As long as he stays healthy, he should hit all of his ‘A’ bonuses. Miller is likely to have a similar role on New York’s back end this season which should give him a shot at two or three of his ‘A’ bonuses while setting him up for a nice second contract though nowhere near what Fox’s will be. Lundkvist is expected to contend for a regular role but if they ease him in, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to hit most of his bonuses.

There’s more emphasis on bonuses here than usual for a reason. While the Rangers are more than $9MM under the cap, that doesn’t factor in bonuses. Knowing that several million of those bonuses are likely to be hit, their effective cap space is lower unless they want to face an overage penalty in 2022-23 which would not be a wise idea if it can be avoided.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Sammy Blais ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Julien Gauthier ($775K, RFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($2.425MM, RFA)
D Libor Hajek ($874K, RFA)
F Ryan Strome ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM, UFA)

All eyes are on Zibanejad as what happens with him will greatly affect their plans moving forward. If they lock him up to a long-term extension which could cost upwards of $10MM based on his current asking price, it’s going to take them out of the mix for adding down the middle. On the flip side, if they don’t re-sign the 28-year-old, they’ll be entering next summer with a significant void down the middle to try to fill if they aren’t able to trade for a certain Buffalo center by then. For the time being, Zibanejad is a number one pivot that’s being paid like a number two center which is a great bargain for the Rangers but that is going to change before next season one way or the other.

New York reportedly gave consideration to non-tendering Strome in the 2020 offseason before signing him to this deal and he responded with a career year. Part of that is playing with a top winger but another showing like that will give him a lot more leverage than he’s accustomed to having as he enters the UFA market for the first time. Blais was brought in to give the team some more grit but he will need to produce more offensively if he wants to get much more than his $1.6MM qualifying offer. Gauthier managed to earn a spot on the fourth line for a good chunk of last season but will need to bring something offensively to the table. He has produced at the lower levels but two goals in 47 career games isn’t going to help his cause for a new deal.

Georgiev has seen his save percentage dip each season which is never a good sign while he is now firmly entrenched as the backup. His $2.65MM qualifying offer may be a bit high for what they’ll be able to afford next season so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in trade speculation again. With the going rate for a good backup, Georgiev’s next deal should come in only a bit higher than his qualifier unless he has a big platform year.

Two Years Remaining

F Filip Chytil ($2.3MM, RFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Jarred Tinordi ($900K, UFA)

The Rangers drafted Chytil hoping that he would eventually fill a role down the middle. That could still happen but so far, he has primarily been on the wing while his production has largely been limited so far. Still just 22, that could change between now and 2023 where he’ll be owed a $2.6MM qualifying offer. He’ll need to improve his offensive output to have a shot at earning a bigger raise beyond his qualifier. Reaves is high-paid for the limited minutes he plays but players like him are always in demand. He’ll be 36 when his one-year extension is up and at that point, it seems unlikely that he’ll be looking at a raise.

Tinordi has taken a long time to get to the NHL but a good showing in the second half of last season allowed him to land a two-year, one-way commitment on the open market. If he can hold down a regular spot on the third pairing each season, he’ll have a shot at a bigger deal in 2023 but if he winds up being more of a depth player as he typically has been, this is about as high as his salary will get.

Three Years Remaining

D Ryan Lindgren ($3MM, RFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($2.5MM, UFA)

Lindgren moved into a regular top-four role for the first time last season and handled the extra responsibility well, earning him this three-year bridge deal that allows both sides to reassess before he gets to the open market. Owed a $3.6MM qualifying offer (120% of the AAV is lower than the final-year salary), Lindgren will need to do more at the offensive end if he wants to get more than that. Stay-at-home defenders can provide value still but at a lower price point than more offensive counterparts. Nemeth is a good example of that. He was in Detroit’s top four for most of the last two seasons (plus a short stint on Colorado’s third pairing) but while he’s steady in his own end, his market value is capped by a lack of production.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Barclay Goodrow ($3.642MM through 2026-27)
F Chris Kreider ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
F Artemi Panarin ($11.643MM through 2025-26)
G Igor Shesterkin ($5.667MM through 2024-25)
D Jacob Trouba ($8MM through 2025-26)

There’s no doubt that Panarin’s contract is on the high side – he’s the highest-paid winger in the league. However, the Rangers have gotten two high-scoring years out of him so far. It’s never going to be a bargain price tag but so far, so good on the production side of things. Kreider’s deal is cheaper but has the potential to be more concerning. As their younger wingers move up the depth chart, Kreider will see his role reduced while power forwards don’t always age well. It seems likely that his contract will be an issue for them at some point down the road. Goodrow managed to land a six-year deal which is impressive for a bottom-six player but he had a big impact for Tampa Bay on their third line and for the Rangers to trade for his rights early to give him the contract, they must have felt that bigger offers were coming had he made it to the open market.

Trouba was brought in to be the all-situations player that he wanted to be in Winnipeg but didn’t get the chance there. He hasn’t exactly made the most of the opportunity. His production has fallen off and while he’s still a top-four defender, he’s getting paid to be a number one, not a solid role player.

Shesterkin’s NHL experience is quite limited – 47 career regular season games, to be exact – but he still carried some leverage in negotiations this summer which led to a four-year deal. The 25-year-old had long been their goalie of the future while his early performance suggests he can live up to that billing. The price tag is reasonable for someone in that role so while it’s pricey for someone with as little NHL experience as he has, they should get a good return on their investment.

Buyouts

D Anthony DeAngelo ($383K in 2021-22, $883K in 2022-23)
D Dan Girardi ($1.11MM through 2022-23)
G Henrik Lundqvist ($1.5MM in 2021-22)
F Brad Richards ($1.055MM through 2025-26, cap-exempt)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.433MM through 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Zibanejad (among non-ELC deals)
Worst Value: Trouba

Looking Ahead

Cap space isn’t going to be an issue for GM Chris Drury this season as even after factoring in their bonus situation, they’ll have ample space to try to add if the opportunity presents itself. Having nearly a third of the roster on entry-level deals typically means a team is in good shape cap-wise.

But that only lasts for so long. Big deals are on the horizon for Zibanejad and Fox for next season and likely Lafreniere a year later so those bargains won’t be in place much longer. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers be a cap ceiling team as early as 2022-23. Accordingly, if Drury does add this season, it’s likely they’ll be targeting expiring contracts before their core gets a lot more expensive fairly quickly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators

September 26, 2021 at 6:48 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Hit: $59,048,333 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit and minimum cap threshold)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Erik Brannstrom (one year, $863K)
F Alex Formenton (one year, $748K)
F Joshua Norris (one year, $925K)
F Shane Pinto (two years, $925K)
F Tim Stutzle (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Brannstrom: $450K
Formenton: $107.5K
Norris: $850K
Pinto: $600K
Stutzle: $2.5MM
Total: $4.508MM

Norris is going to be the next big contract on the horizon for the Senators. He was one of the top rookies in the league last season and should spend all of the upcoming season in a top-six role at the very least. Impact centers get paid quickly and if they move to sign him to a long-term deal, he could jump into the $7MM range assuming he has a strong sophomore season. Stutzle, another long-term building block, had some ups and downs in his rookie campaign but the high-end potential is certainly there. If he progresses as expected, he could also be looking at a similar price tag on his next deal. Pinto certainly didn’t look out of place late in the season and should see extended NHL action this year. How he fares in that should determine if he’s heading for a long-term deal of his own or something shorter. As for Formenton, the speedster split last season between Ottawa and AHL Belleville. He should be able to lock down more of a regular spot in 2021-22 but is likely heading for a short-term second contract.

Brannstrom was the centerpiece of the Mark Stone trade back in 2019 although he hasn’t yet been able to lock down a full-time NHL role let alone show signs of the offensive upside he has displayed in the minors. He should push for a regular spot this season but he’s also waiver-exempt which could make him the odd one out in training camp. In either scenario, a bridge deal makes more sense for him. Considering the bigger contracts they have on the horizon for Norris and Stutzle, they’ll need some shorter-term deals to balance those out anyway.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Josh Brown ($1.2MM, UFA)
G Anton Forsberg ($900K, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Victor Mete ($1.2MM, RFA)
F Nick Paul ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($2MM, UFA)
F Chris Tierney ($3.5MM, UFA)

Tierney has been in trade speculation dating back to last season and that won’t change anytime soon as he’s unlikely to be in Ottawa’s long-term plans. He’s a serviceable middle-six center who is probably better off on the third line but players like that have landed similar contracts to the one he has recently. A big raise is unlikely but neither is a big dip this summer. Sanford, acquired in the Logan Brown trade, has been a capable bottom-six winger but unless he has an uptick in production with his new team, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to get much more than his current price tag on the open market. Paul hasn’t been able to make the most of his increased playing time the last couple of years but as a physical player that can play both the wing and down the middle, he’s someone that’s probably going to garner a fair bit of interest which could push his next AAV past the $2MM range.

Holden was acquired as a salary offset in the Evgenii Dadonov trade this summer and is likely to have a similarly limited role with the Senators as he did with the Golden Knights. Barring a surprisingly strong season, he’s someone that is more of a candidate to land a PTO than a raise. Brown also is expected to play a depth role which doesn’t bode well for his first chance in unrestricted free agency. That said, he’ll only be 28 next summer so he should be able to land a guaranteed deal but at this point, it probably won’t be more than this one. Mete impressed after coming over from Montreal on waivers and will be looking to earn a top-four role for the first time since his rookie season. That will determine if he can potentially double his AAV in that situation or whether he’ll be a non-tender candidate with him having arbitration eligibility again.

Forsberg was claimed off waivers three times last season but held his own when called upon down the stretch with Ottawa, earning this new deal. If he can establish himself as a quality backup, he could double his price tag or more but having been more of a third-stringer in his career, the likelier scenario is that he winds up in a similar spot next season which would come with a bit of a dip in pay.

Two Years Remaining

F Connor Brown ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Michael Del Zotto ($2MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Artem Zub ($2.5MM, UFA)

Brown’s offensive output has increased with Ottawa as he has been used in a bigger role than he was with Toronto but it hasn’t come at the expense of his defensive play. All of a sudden, he has become a strong two-way player. His ice time may dip as younger players move up the depth chart but for the time being, his deal is a nice bargain and the longer he plays at that level, the more expensive he’s going to be two summers from now. Watson makes perhaps a bit much for someone that’s primarily on the fourth line but it certainly isn’t a big overpayment and with the cap space they have, it’s one that they can certainly afford. It’s hard to see him getting more on his next deal, however.

Zub had to wait a bit to get into the lineup but when he did, he quickly became an important part of their back end which earned him this two-year extension. Given that he only has 47 career NHL games under his belt, pegging his value on his next contract will be tough; it’ll go up if he can stay in the top four but if he winds up settling in as more of a third-pairing option, he might be in tough to land a raise. Del Zotto’s contract came as a surprise to many for someone that has had to settle for discount deals the last two seasons but the Sens believe he can be a capable veteran to hold down a spot while their prospects develop. He’ll be 33 when his next deal gets signed and it’s hard to imagine he’ll get more than this.

Three Years Remaining

G Matt Murray ($6.25MM, UFA)

When Ottawa acquired Murray early on the second day of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, they were hoping that they found not only their goalie of the present but also potentially their goalie of the future. But things didn’t go swimmingly for him as he followed up the lowest save percentage of his career with an even lower one in his first year with Ottawa. Yes, the Senators weren’t a great team but his struggles certainly contributed to that. In terms of AAV, only five goalies have a higher one than Murray but so far, he hasn’t provided an adequate level of goaltending let alone a high-end showing for someone making more than most starters do.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Drake Batherson ($4.975MM through 2026-27)
D Thomas Chabot ($8MM through 2027-28)
F Colin White ($4.75MM through 2024-25)

Batherson only has one full NHL season under his belt (and it was a pandemic-shortened one) so his deal does carry some risk. However, if he can become even a capable second-line winger long term, the contract should hold up well. Similar logic was applied to White’s deal when it was signed in a similar situation to Batherson’s but his contract has not held up well so far as he has been limited to a depth role without much production. There’s still time for that to change but with Norris and Pinto also in the mix, he’ll need to produce soon or run the risk of being buried down the depth chart.

Chabot was another player who signed a long-term deal quickly, with a year left on his entry-level deal, in fact. This one has worked out quite well so far as he has established himself as a legitimate top-pairing defenseman and at 24, there’s still room for improvement, especially as the Sens improve. With how much contracts for top blueliners have gone up lately, this one already appears to be a below-market deal with a chance for it to become more team-friendly as he improves.

Buyouts

D Dion Phaneuf ($354K through 2022-23)
F Bobby Ryan ($3.583MM in 2021-22, $1.583MM in 2022-23 and 2023-24)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Brady Tkachuk

Tkachuk is another part of Ottawa’s long-term core and is viewed by some to be their next captain, possibly as soon as this deal gets done. There have been suggestions that the same deal that Chabot has is on the table which would immediately make him Ottawa’s top-paid forward by a significant margin. The deal will eventually get done with a soft pressure point being the start of the season; not only do they want him on opening night but they’ll need to get compliant with the salary floor and Tkachuk’s deal will easily put them over. Otherwise, they’ll need to add some payroll.

Best Value: C. Brown
Worst Value: Murray

Looking Ahead

From a cap space perspective, it’s smooth sailing for the next couple of years as Ottawa will be comfortably below the Upper Limit. Once new deals for Norris and Stutzle are done though, those pacts plus Chabot’s and Tkachuk’s will represent a sizable chunk of their payroll. It’s at that time that their spending will need to pick up and get closer to the cap in order to build and maintain a strong core around them. Until then, GM Pierre Dorion has all sorts of flexibility to work with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

September 24, 2021 at 7:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $81,118,523 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Wade Allison (one year, $925K)
F Joel Farabee (one year, $925K)
F Morgan Frost (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Allison: $425K
Farabee: $600K
Total: $1.025MM

Farabee’s second season was a good one as he earned an extension that we’ll look at closer to the end of this article. For the upcoming season, those performance bonuses could be met with a similar showing so either the Flyers will need to leave themselves some wiggle room at the end of the season or face a reduced cap for the overage next year. Frost was limited to just two games last season due to injury so he may see some AHL time but should be a regular before too long. With his limited production and game action so far, he’s a strong candidate for a short-term deal. If Allison lands a full-time spot, the ‘A’ bonuses in his deal could be achievable but if he bounces back and forth between the Flyers and Phantoms, those shouldn’t be an issue and, like Frost, he’s likely to get a short-term second contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.075MM, RFA)
D Justin Braun ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Derick Brassard ($825K, UFA)
F Claude Giroux ($8.275MM, UFA)
G Martin Jones ($2MM, UFA)
D/F Samuel Morin ($750K, RFA)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.4MM, UFA)
F Nate Thompson ($800K, UFA)
D Keith Yandle ($900K, UFA)

Giroux, Philadelphia’s captain, has been a fixture in their lineup for the past 13 seasons. However, his production is starting to tail off and it has already been stated that he won’t sign an in-season deal. His next contract could very well be his last, especially if it’s a four-year pact or longer and it seems like a lot will be riding on how things go this season. Either way, his next deal should come in a couple million cheaper than this one. Aube-Kubel, as a role player, shouldn’t be commanding much more than his qualifying offer of $1.225MM unless his production ticks up this season. Brassard has seen his value dip in recent years to the point where he has had to settle for what feels like a below-market contract based on his production for the second year in a row. This seems to be his new baseline deal moving forward. Thompson is a capable veteran depth piece that can win faceoffs. There is always a market for those players but it typically is close to the minimum.

The Flyers paid a big price to add Ristolainen just before the draft to add what they hope will be an impact piece to their back end. He has struggled with Buffalo as of late but still logs heavy minutes which will keep his earnings potential fairly high. He’ll need to bounce back offensively to have a chance at landing a sizable raise on his next deal. Braun doesn’t produce much but is a steady defensive player. As he ages, it’s hard to see him landing a pricier contract next year but he could come close to his current rate. Yandle signed for cheap after being bought out by Florida and is looking to restore some value. However, he’ll be 36 for 2022-23 and will likely have to go year to year. An incentive-laden contract for that season would make a lot of sense for him. Morin served as a depth option both up front and on the back end last year and shouldn’t be able to command much more than that unless he locks down a regular role defensively. The recent report that he has sustained another significant knee injury will make that quite difficult to accomplish.

Jones has not played well lately which led to the Sharks paying him a lot of money ($10MM over six years) to no longer play for them. When he’s on, he’s capable of pushing for closer to a 50/50 share of starts and that would certainly help his case for free agency next summer. At 31, a good showing could land him a multi-year commitment.

Two Years Remaining

F Oskar Lindblom ($3MM, RFA)
D Travis Sanheim ($4.765MM, UFA)
F James van Riemsdyk ($7MM, UFA)

The second stint in Philadelphia hasn’t gone as well for van Riemsdyk. He’s still fairly productive – he tied for the team lead in points last season – but he’s more of a supporting player being paid like a front-liner. It’s not a massive overpayment but his deal has definitely become an above-market one and he will be facing a cut two summers from now. Lindblom’s first full season back from cancer was a quiet one. Similar showings would make him a non-tender candidate but he still has time to turn his fortunes around.

The Flyers were one of two teams to take a restricted free agent to arbitration this offseason as they did so with Sanheim. That guaranteed that they’d get a contract in place before training camp but it also gave Sanheim more leverage as he could have elected to take a two-year deal from an arbitrator to get to free agency early. They didn’t go to arbitration but he still got the two-year pact and the quick trip to the open market. He’s coming off a down season but if he can get back to his production from two years ago, he could be looking at a substantial jump in pay on a long-term deal based on what the defensive market was this year.

Three Years Remaining

G Carter Hart ($3.979MM, RFA)

Hart had a year to forget but his first two were strong enough to give him what was still a pretty strong second contract. He has the potential to be a high-end starter and if that happens, he could come close to doubling that on his next deal. The qualifying offer here is $4.479MM so if Hart doesn’t bounce back or is more of a 1B netminder, that could be a bit too rich for them at that time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Cam Atkinson ($5.875MM through 2024-25)
F Sean Couturier ($4.333MM in 2021-22, $7.775MM from 2022-23 through 2029-30)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Joel Farabee ($5MM from 2022-23 through 2027-28)
F Kevin Hayes ($7.143MM through 2025-26)
F Travis Konecny ($5.5MM through 2024-25)
F Scott Laughton ($3MM through 2024-25)
D Ivan Provorov ($6.75MM through 2024-25)

Couturier isn’t going to win any scoring titles but he’s a premier two-way center in this league and would have landed that price tag on the open market. The last couple of years could be a bit pricey but in the short term, they shouldn’t have any issues with that deal. Hayes, like van Riemsdyk, has been productive but is a bit overpaid relative to the role he fills which is more of a complementary one than a top one. That could be an issue down the road. Atkinson is making high-end second-line money and as long as he plays and produces like a top-six forward – there’s little reason to think he won’t – they’ll get a good return on this deal. Farabee’s deal carries some risk given that he has just 107 career games under his belt but he’s already trending towards being a long-term top-six piece and $5MM for that is pretty good value. Konecny is making market value for a second liner and that’s basically the role he fills even though he is coming off a bit of a disappointing season. Laughton opted for some security at the trade deadline when he signed this extension. Good third-line centers have made more than that in free agency and he’s at least a capable third liner so there shouldn’t be too many issues with this one other than the term may be a little longer than they’d probably have preferred.

Provorov may not be a true number one defenseman but that’s the role he fills on the Flyers. He’s in the prime of his career and is making a lot less than a typical number one defender gets. As a number two, he is making market value and if they keep relying on him as their top blueliner, it becomes a below-market contract. Ellis was their biggest acquisition on the back end, coming over from Nashville. He should take some of the pressure off Provorov and will be a key cog offensively. As long as he plays in their top two, they’ll get a good return on this deal.

Buyouts

G Ilya Bryzgalov ($1.643MM through 2026-27, $0 cap hit as it was a cap-exempt buyout)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Couturier (current contract, not next year’s extension)
Worst Value: Hayes

Looking Ahead

The Flyers project to be tight to the salary cap all season long and will need to be healthy to bank enough space to add an impact player at the deadline. Looking ahead to next summer, with nearly $66M in commitments already, keeping both Giroux and Ristolainen and having enough space to fill out the rest of their roster could be a bit difficult.

Long term, Philadelphia has over $47MM in commitments for 2024-25 already which is near the top of the league in that regard; that number will certainly go up if Giroux and/or Ristolainen re-sign while Hart will be in line for a new deal at that point as well. The odds of them being able to add another core piece will be low as a result with the cap not expected to go up much between now and then. The long-term core is pretty much in place already and any changes will need to come on the trade front. GM Chuck Fletcher has already shown an ability to make core-changing trades based on his moves this summer and more could be coming down the road if this team is unable to get into contention.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2021

Detroit Red Wings

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Edmonton Oilers

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Florida Panthers

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Salary Cap Recapture

Looking Ahead

Los Angeles Kings

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Salary Cap Recapture

Looking Ahead

Minnesota Wild

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

Nashville Predators

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Looking Ahead

New York Islanders

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Still To Sign

Looking Ahead

New York Rangers

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Still To Sign

Looking Ahead

Ottawa Senators

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level