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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2020

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $64,304,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jesper Boqvist (two years, $925K)
F Jack Hughes (two years, $925K)
F Janne Kuokkanen (one year, $812K)
F Michael McLeod (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Hughes: $2.85MM
Kuokkanen: $32.5K
McLeod: $500K
Total: $3.3825MM

Hughes, the top pick from the 2019 draft, didn’t have a great rookie season but was also making the jump from the USHL which was basically uncharted waters.  A lot can change over the next couple of years and if he takes the big step forward offensively that many expect him to, he’ll be able to bypass a bridge deal and get a long-term, big-money deal.  Boqvist split last season between the Devils and AHL Binghamton which should have him in the mix for a spot on the fourth line but his offensive numbers will need to improve if he wants to make what he’s getting now on his second deal.  McLeod, a 2016 first-round pick, has struggled over his first two professional seasons but with the AHL likely to have an even shorter year than the NHL, keeping him up for an extended look may be best for his development.  Kuokkanen was an important part of the Sami Vatanen deal back at the deadline and it’s possible he’s in the mix for a spot at the end of the roster as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Connor Carrick ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Nikita Gusev ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Kulikov ($1.15MM, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($4.6MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($4.65MM, UFA)
F Travis Zajac ($5.75MM, UFA)

While Palmieri isn’t the highest-paid player on this list, that won’t be the case for much longer.  Since joining the Devils, he has emerged as a consistent goal scorer, potting between 24 and 30 goals over his five seasons with the team.  While the current free agent market hasn’t been particularly kind to wingers this offseason, New Jersey is in a position where they can afford to pay above market value to ensure they keep him around and not lose a big part of their attack to free agency.  If he does make it to the open market though, he should have no shortage of suitors though how many will be able to afford him (a standard caveat that is going to apply for a few years for any UFA of note) remains to be seen.

Zajac has been a fixture in New Jersey’s lineup for the past 14 seasons but his time as a top-six center has come and gone.  With an abundance of younger options down the middle, it wouldn’t be surprising if he finds himself elsewhere in 2021-22 at about a third of what he costs now although GM Tom Fitzgerald could try to keep Zajac around in a mentor role as well.  Gusev had a bit of a shaky start to his NHL career last season but eventually became a productive player in their top six.  Given his limited track record, predicting his next contract is a bit trickier but he’ll need to improve on his offensive numbers to have a shot at a raise.

Murray was brought in as a cap dump from Columbus and lands in a good spot where he’ll help stabilize their top four, provided he can stay healthy.  That’s a huge if based on his career and even if he stays healthy this season, his history of being injured will certainly limit his market although Chris Tanev, an oft-injured blueliner, was able to still land a four-year, $18MM deal this offseason.  As things stand, that’s around what he should be targeting as things stand.  Carrick has had a limited role since joining the Devils and will likely be the sixth or seventh defender again.  That’s a high price tag for that spot on the depth chart and he’ll be hard-pressed to land that on his next deal.  Kulikov was overpaid with Winnipeg but he did log 20 minutes a game and hold his own last season.  This was a decent under the radar move for the Devils and he could have an opportunity to rebuild his value with them this coming season.

Two Years Remaining

D Will Butcher ($3.733MM, UFA)
G Corey Crawford ($3.9MM, UFA)
D P.K. Subban ($9MM, UFA)
F Miles Wood ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Pavel Zacha ($2.25MM, RFA)

Wood has seen his production taper off slightly the last couple of years and instead of looking like a possible top-six winger, he’s settled in as more of a third liner.  He’s still an effective player and is one of the quicker players in the league but he’s owed a $3.5MM qualifying offer when this deal is up and that price tag is looking a little high as things stand.  Zacha hasn’t lived up to his draft billing yet (sixth overall in 2015) but he has taken some small steps forward the last couple of years.  Long term, he probably profiles no higher than a third-line center at this point and a $3MM qualifier for someone in that role is justifiable although he probably doesn’t stand to make much more than that on his next deal.

Subban was brought in last offseason from Nashville as the Predators were looking to free up salary and his return to the Eastern Conference wasn’t the greatest.  He struggled to the worst offensive season of his career while he actually saw less ice time than he was getting with the Preds on a team where the expectation was that he’d be their top defender.  It’s a bad-value contract but one that they can afford.  He’s looking at a sizable dip in pay on his next contract.  Butcher also had a tough year offensively, putting up career-low numbers which isn’t ideal for someone billed as an offensive defenseman.  Getting back to his rookie production (44 points) is what he’ll need if he wants a shot at cashing in on a long-term deal.

Crawford signed with New Jersey in free agency after he and Chicago weren’t able to come to terms on a new deal with term being a sticking point.  At this point, he’s a short-term bridge goalie and a bit above-average for that role.  His contract reflects both of those factors and is a pretty good deal for the Devils.

Three Years Remaining

F Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM, UFA)
D Damon Severson ($4.17MM, UFA)

Johnsson was also brought in as a cap casualty as Toronto needed to free up room this offseason.  He is coming off an injury-riddled season but has a 20-goal year under his belt.  Based on the market last offseason, he’s on a fair-market deal.

Severson’s contract is slowly turning into a bargain as he has settled in nicely on their top pairing and led the team in ATOI last season.  While his offensive game may not get to that next tier, it doesn’t need to in order to justify that price tag.  A top-pairing player making number four money is nice value even if he should be in a lower spot on the depth chart.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $72,274,125 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Emil Bemstrom (two years, $925K)
D Andrew Peeke (one year, $917K)
F Alexandre Texier (one year, $898K)
F Liam Foudy (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Bemstrom: $850K
Peeke: $850K
Foudy: $375K
Total: $2.08MM

Despite not having brought in much young talent the past few years in the draft, the Blue Jackets do still have a number of young players who could make a quick impact on their franchise. Bemstrom, a fourth-round pick from 2017, came over from Sweden last year at the age of 20 and played in 56 games, scoring 10 goals in his rookie season. He should continue to force his way into the more and more minutes and the speedy forward could eventually develop into a 25-goal scorer. Texier is another quick-moving forward who could develop into a future core piece of the team. Despite dealing with a back injury, Texier scored six goals in 36 games as a 20-year-old. Foudy played most of last season in the OHL, but did get a chance to appear in two games for Columbus, but the 2018 first-rounder is also a candidate to challenge for playing time with the Blue Jackets next season.

Peeke, on the other hand, looks to already be penciled into the Blue Jackets’ blueline. With the departures of Ryan Murray and Markus Nutivaara, Peeke will get every opportunity to claim one of the third pairing openings. The 22-year-old looked impressive in 22 appearances last year and could eventually work his way towards a top-four spot.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Brandon Dubinsky ($5.85MM, UFA)
F Nick Foligno ($5.5MM, UFA)
D David Savard ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Riley Nash ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Oliver Bjorkstrand ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Mikko Koivu ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Mikhail Grigorenko ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Kevin Stenlund ($874K, RFA)

The Blue Jackets have quite a bit of salary coming off the books next season. First off the list will be Dubinsky who has scored just 12 goals since the 2017 season as he has been dealing with a wrist injury and recently general manager Jarmo Kekalainen said he wasn’t likely to ever play professional hockey again. That frees up a lot of cap room. Foligno is a different matter, however, as the 33-year-old may have seen a slight decline in his play recently, but the team will likely do what it can to retain their captain, who has been a key figure for the team both on and off the ice, even if he may be moving to the bottom-six of the lineup in the near future.

The team will also have to make a decision on Savard, who is one of the team’s top defensive players. The 30-year-old doesn’t help much offensively, but is a minutes eater who has been a key piece to the team’s top-four.

On the restricted front, the team’s top RFA next offseason will be Bjorkstrand, who has scored 20 or more goals for two straight seasons and is starting to come into his own. The 25-year-old posted 21 goals in 49 games last year, on pace for a potential 35-goal season had an ankle injury and the pandemic not cut into a chunk of his season.

Kekalainen also took a couple fliers, signing veteran Koivu and KHL star Grigorenko to one-year deals. Koivu should provide the team with key leadership and be able to help out the team’s bottom-six and penalty kill, while the Blue Jackets are hoping that Grigorenko, a former lottery pick in 2012, might be able to make it work in North America on his second attempt. The Russian, now 26, could never find his niche in the NHL and returned to the KHL, where he tallied 38 goals and 93 points combined in his last two seasons for CSKA Moscow.

Two Years Remaining

D Seth Jones ($5.4MM, UFA)
F Max Domi ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Zach Werenski ($5MM, UFA)
G Elvis Merzlikins ($4MM, UFA)
F Boone Jenner ($3.75MM, UFA)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($2.8MM, UFA)
D Dean Kukan ($1.65MM, UFA)
D Scott Harrington ($1.63MM, UFA)
F Eric Robinson ($975K, UFA)
F Nathan Gerbe ($750K, UFA)
D Gabriel Carlsson ($725K, RFA)

The Blue Jackets have quite a few key players hitting unrestricted free agency in a couple of years and will have to find a way to sign some of them to long-term deals. At the top of that list are their two star defensemen in Jones and Werenski. Jones has been one of the most dominant players on the team’s stifling defense and plays quite a key role on offense as well. The blueliner scored six goals and 30 points in just 56 games, but was sorely missed when he went down with an ankle injury in February. His partner, Werenski stepped it up, especially on offense last year, breaking the 20-goal mark for the first time and in just 63 games last year. The two together form one of the top defensive lines in hockey. Both will require quite a large sum of money to re-sign, but the Blue Jackets look like they should have money to spare to sign both of them.

Columbus also acquired Domi from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for disgruntled forward Josh Anderson and now have two years to decide if the 25-year-old forward can make the most of the next two seasons. Domi scored 18 goals with Arizona in his rookie year, but then failed to break 10 goals for the next two seasons. Then he was traded to Montreal where he put up 28 goals in his first season there only to post 17 goals the following season and fall out of favor. Now on his third team, the Blue Jackets hope that Domi can put it all together and be the team’s No. 2 center long-term. The team will also have to decide whether Jenner is worth holding onto. After scoring 30 goals in the 2015-16 season, the 27-year-old has seen his offense decline almost every year as he posted just 11 goals last year.

The team may also be forced to make a decision in net in two years as well. The Blue Jackets got a real boost when both Korpisalo, the previous year’s backup, and Merzlikins, the team’s top goalie prospect took over for Sergei Bobrovsky only to watch both flourish. With both locked in for another two years, the team has time to decide which one to keep as neither are making too much money. Although there was talk during the season that Columbus might be willing to move one of its netminders for some offense.

Three Years Remaining

F Gustav Nyquist ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Vladislav Gavrikov ($2.8MM, UFA)

Nyquist was brought in last offseason to offset the losses of Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel. The 31-year-old put up 15 goals and 42 points in 70 games last season, which is solid for a middle-six forward, but the team is hoping that can be on pace for better numbers next season. Kekalainen brought in Gavrikov last  year on a one-year entry-level deal and that paid off as he quickly earned a bottom pairing role for the season, using his size and defensive abilities to his advantage. He fared well when pressed into a top-four role and was rewarded in the offseason with a three-year extension and likely will take a bigger role next year with Murray gone. Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $80,567,739 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Martin Necas (two years, $863K)
F Andrei Svechnikov (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Necas: $537.5K
Svechnikov: $2.65MM
Total: $3.1875MM

Svechnikov didn’t waste much time becoming an integral part of Carolina’s attack to the point where GM Don Waddell said one of his top priorities this offseason would be trying to sign the winger to an extension.  It would come with a significant price tag as he’d undoubtedly be looking for $7MM or more on a long-term deal to sign now, even in this marketplace.  It’s hard to see both sides hitting a number they like and accordingly, a bridge contract may be the end result, something Waddell has previously suggested. Necas was eased in much slower than Svechnikov (he became a regular in his third professional season with the first two sliding) and the patience the Hurricanes showed was certainly wise as he was a capable middle-six forward in his first full campaign.  If he can emerge as a full-time option in their top six, he could be a candidate to bypass a bridge contract although what happens with other players on their current roster could force their hand.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Ryan Dzingel ($3.375MM, UFA)
F Warren Foegele ($2.15MM, RFA)
D Dougie Hamilton ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($2MM, UFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.1MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.4MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($3.125MM, UFA)
D Joakim Ryan ($700K, UFA)

Dzingel was brought in to be a capable secondary scorer and wound up signing what looked like a good value contract at the time.  What a difference a year can make.  He struggled to find his footing offensively and it got to the point where he started out the playoffs as a healthy scratch.  With minimal roster turnover, he may not have a better opportunity this coming season so he appears to be a candidate that will be taking a sizable cut in pay.  McGinn and Martinook are quality defensive forwards but consistent offense isn’t their calling card.  These types of role players have been hit hard this offseason and it wouldn’t be surprising to see both of them have to take a dip as well to stick around.  Foegele took a step forward in his production last season though his physical play took a step backwards.  If he can bring that element back and maintain his output, he becomes the type of power forward that demand always outweighs supply and players like that often do well in arbitration which he’ll be eligible for.

Hamilton is the other big offseason priority that Waddell has frequently spoken about and for good reason.  For years, he has shown flashes of dominance but the consistency wasn’t always there.  Last season, it was and he appeared to be on his way towards a Norris-caliber season before a broken fibula ended his season prematurely and to make matters worse, a summer training injury stopped him from being ready for the start of the playoffs although he did eventually make it back.  When he’s on, he has played like a number one defender and he’ll want to be paid like one to sign now.  Alex Pietrangelo’s $8.8MM price tag is the new benchmark in this market and while Hamilton won’t be able to get quite that much, something around $1MM lower is achievable.  Ryan logged more than 19 minutes a game in limited action with Los Angeles a year ago but is likely to be the seventh defender, a position that Carolina will likely look to keep as cheap as possible with some big-ticket contracts on the horizon.

The Hurricanes have faced plenty of questions with their choice to go with the tandem of Mrazek and Reimer instead of a more proven option but they received a decent performance from the pair a year ago and with the quality of their back end, not bringing in a high-priced starter makes some sense.  Neither netminder has made a strong case for a big raise on their next contracts, nor are they facing a big hit in pay either.  As a result, with Carolina’s financial structure, it seems quite possible that the two could be brought back a year from now at a similar price if they can’t land a more proven starter.

Two Years Remaining

D Haydn Fleury ($1.3MM, RFA)
F Nino Niederreiter ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Vincent Trocheck ($4.75MM, UFA)

Niederreiter was a great fit in his part season with Carolina after being acquired from Minnesota in 2019 but his first full year didn’t go as well.  He’s a middle-six winger on this team and that’s a bit of a high price tag for someone in that role.  However, as he showed after being traded, he is capable of reaching top-line production at times.  Trocheck’s acquisition from Florida was largely surprising in that the cost to get him was low.  He’s coming off of a couple of quieter years but if they want to continue to ease Necas in and have him on the wing Trocheck could slot in on the second line to start the season and would represent good value in that spot.

Fleury hasn’t quite lived up to his draft billing yet (seventh overall in 2014) but he spent all of last season with the Hurricanes, albeit in a limited role.  However, when the playoffs came, he was a regular in the lineup.  That helped earn him another short-term contract and if he can work his way into a full-time spot in the lineup, he’ll be in good shape for a small raise two years from now.  Having said that, his earnings upside will be limited since he’s going to have a hard time moving any higher than third on the depth chart on the left side of their back end.

Three Years Remaining

F Jesper Fast ($2MM, UFA)
D Jake Gardiner ($4.05MM, UFA)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM, UFA)

Staal’s offensive production has dipped sharply the last couple of seasons to the point where he is best utilized as a checker in the bottom six.  That puts his price tag on the high side and he’ll be hard-pressed to come close to that rate when he hits the open market at 35.  Fast was one of the better bargains from this free agent class.  He’s a good fit on the third line but can move up when needed and getting that for the price that they’re paying fourth liners was some nice work by Waddell.

Gardiner’s deal looked like a possible steal when he signed it last year but no one is calling it that now.  He struggled considerably in the early going with the Hurricanes last season and didn’t put up his usual level of production to help offset some of his defensive struggles.  The end result was him being on the third pairing and more or less right on the fringe of being a healthy scratch.  This is a contract they’d undoubtedly like to move (which would open up a spot for promising youngster Jake Bean) but they’ll have quite a difficult time doing so.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $82,474,104 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Cody Glass (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Glass: $850K

Vegas was able to ease Glass into his injury-shortened rookie year and allowed him to get his feet wet without much pressure which is typically a strong development strategy.  They won’t have that luxury moving forward, however, with Paul Stastny being moved back to Winnipeg, opening up a spot for a top-six center.  They’re hoping Glass can fill that spot and if he does, he’ll be in line for a big raise on his next deal.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Carl Dahlstrom ($850K, RFA)
D Alec Martinez ($4MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1.25MM, UFA)

Nosek has been a dependable fourth liner in his three years with the team which earned him a small raise on this contract.  It’s hard to envision him getting much more, however, given how tight they are to the cap; they can’t afford to pay any sort of premium for someone on the fourth line.

Martinez immediately stepped into a prominent role after being acquired from the Kings near the trade deadline as he fit in quite well with his new team.  He’s likely to remain in their top four this coming season and he should be one of the more sought-after blueliners on the open market next offseason if he gets there.  Dahlstrom was acquired as part of the Stastny trade and will be in a depth role.  That’s about all Vegas can afford for that role so if his price tag goes up, chances are he’ll be replaced by someone willing to play for that amount next offseason.

Two Years Remaining

G Marc-Andre Fleury ($7MM, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)

Smith has been a consistent producer in his three years with Vegas after being a bit more inconsistent during his time with Boston and Florida.  He has established himself as a capable top-six winger but he’ll be 31 when he signs his next contract and the market wasn’t too kind to wingers this offseason.  Things can change between now and then obviously but while he may be able to land a similar-priced deal in 2022, it’s hard to see a big raise on the horizon.  Reaves took a pay cut to stay with the Golden Knights although he’s still one of the more expensive pure fourth liners to recently sign.  At some point, they’ll need a cheaper option out of that spot, whether it’s him or someone else.

McNabb is never going to put up a lot of points but there is still a role for a stay-at-home, physical defender.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that the importance of players who play that style seems to be diminishing with each year.  As a result, even though he’s a good fit on the second pairing most nights, his market two years from now may not be as strong as it should be.  Holden has been a serviceable player on the third pairing but that’s another spot that Vegas will be looking to save money on which means they may turn to another player at that time.

Fleury’s contract made some sense at the time he was signed as he was their undisputed starter with no other option on the horizon.  Things have changed since then and he now sits as the presumptive backup and $7MM for a second option isn’t ideal no matter how good that player is.  It’s believed that the team tried to move him but found no takers at a price point they were comfortable with.  A buyout a year from now could be an option if they can’t find a new home by retaining a sizable portion of the contract.  In the meantime, Vegas will have one of the stronger tandems in the league next season while also being one of the most expensive ones.

Three Years Remaining

F Max Pacioretty ($7MM, UFA)

Very quietly, Pacioretty has potted 30 or more goals and 60 or more points in five of the last seven seasons which is legitimate front line production.  Whether or not he can maintain that in his early to mid-30s remains to be seen but while his contract isn’t a bargain, it’s fair value from when he signed the deal shortly after being acquired in 2018.

Four Years Remaining

F William Carrier ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Marchessault ($5MM, UFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($2.75MM, UFA)

Marchessault is still one of the better stories out there.  After starting on an AHL contract and playing a middling role in his mid-20s, he has now emerged as a capable top liner while being paid like a second liner which is good value for Vegas.  Stephenson fit in quite well after being acquired in a midseason cap dump from Washington and was rewarded with the four-year deal this offseason.  That could prove to be expensive if he goes back to producing more like a fourth liner but at the same time, if he produces at a similar rate from his part year in Vegas, it’ll be quite the bargain.  Carrier took a nice step forward offensively last season while playing his usual physical style.  Another small step forward in terms of production would give him a good chance to meet if not outperform this contract.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $83,001,878 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Quinn Hughes (one year, $917K)
F Elias Pettersson (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Hughes: $850K
Pettersson: $2.85MM
Total: $3.7MM

So far in this series, there haven’t been many star players currently on entry-level deals.  That isn’t the case here.  Pettersson has quickly established himself as a legitimate front-line player and while he spent most of last season on the wing, shifting to the lesser-valuable position isn’t going to hurt his bargaining position one bit.  He has back-to-back 66-point seasons under his belt and is in position to command $7MM or more on his next deal, even in this cap climate.

Hughes doesn’t have quite as long of a track record as his lone full NHL season was 2019-20 but it was certainly a good one.  He finished second in Calder Trophy voting and immediately jumped into a regular top-four role.  There’s still room to grow and if that workload and production increase as expected, he’ll be leading Vancouver blueliners in AAV by this time a year from now.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Sven Baertschi ($3.367MM, UFA)
D Jordie Benn ($2MM, UFA)
G Thatcher Demko ($1.05MM, RFA)
D Alexander Edler ($6MM, UFA)
F Adam Gaudette ($950K, RFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Brandon Sutter ($4.375MM, UFA)

Let’s get the bad contracts out of the way first.  Baertschi cleared waivers due to his contract last season and they weren’t able to find a taker for him in a trade this offseason.  Barring any surprises, he’s probably heading for a similar fate.  He can still be a factor in the NHL and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him sign elsewhere next year but it will be closer to the $1MM mark than his current one.  Sutter is another pricey deal for a role player.  He can still play on the fourth line and kill penalties but given their cap situation, they could free up $1.075MM by sending him to the AHL as well as there’s no chance he’d be claimed on waivers.

Pearson has rebounded nicely since joining the Canucks and quietly put up a career year offensively last season despite the pandemic shutting things down.  In a normal cap environment, a similar showing in 2020-21 would have him in line for a raise but now, even matching his current rate will be difficult.  A big drop isn’t likely either but he’s not going to get the contract he normally would in this situation.  Gaudette had a good sophomore season but without much leverage (no arbitration rights) and Vancouver’s cap situation, he was basically stuck taking a one-year deal and will hope for better fortunes next time around.

Edler has been a fixture on the back end for the Canucks for parts of 14 seasons and he’s still playing a prominent role.  Impact defenders haven’t been hit as hard when it comes to contracts this offseason as some forwards have which should help his cause.  However, Edler hasn’t really shown an inclination or desire to test the open market as he has made it clear that he wants to stay in Vancouver.  But with Pettersson and Hughes heading for significant raises a year from now, GM Jim Benning is going to need to reallocate a lot of money from their expiring deals to those two.  Will they still have enough to keep Edler around?  He’ll have to take a big cut for it to happen although it’s worth noting that he will be eligible for performance incentives on a one-year contract next offseason.  Benn played a limited role last season and he’s another one that could be shopped to try to clear some money still.  Failing that, he’ll play a similar role next year and will be looking at a price tag that’s about half of what he’s getting now next offseason.

Demko could very well be one of the more interesting RFA cases next offseason.  Not just in Vancouver but anywhere.  Since he was drafted back in 2014, he has been viewed as their goalie of the future and that hasn’t changed, especially since they opted not to hand Jacob Markstrom a long-term contract in October to help pave the way for Demko to ascend to that role.  He will almost certainly be their protected goalie in the Seattle expansion draft.  And yet he has just 37 career regular season games under his belt (plus a stellar four-game playoff stint from the summer).  He’d be lucky to double that number in a shortened season so he’ll still be relatively inexperienced when his deal is up.  Could he sign a second bridge deal that’s comparable to Tristan Jarry’s three-year, $10.5MM pact that he recently inked?  Sure, but that walks him to UFA eligibility at 28 which isn’t ideal.  Suffice it to say, there’s a lot riding on this limited season for Demko.

Two Years Remaining

F Jay Beagle ($3MM, UFA)
F Brock Boeser ($5.875MM, RFA)
F Loui Eriksson ($6MM, UFA)
G Braden Holtby ($4.3MM, UFA)
F Antoine Roussel ($3MM, UFA)

Again, let’s get the bad out of the way first.  Eriksson hasn’t come close to living up to his contract and he quite became another addition to the list of ill-fated 2016 UFA deals.  He’s another candidate to be buried in the minors if they need to try to free up some cap room.  The same can be said for Beagle who can still win faceoffs but is making way too much for someone that’s basically just a specialist on the draw at this stage of his career.

As for Boeser, he has been a capable top-six winger in his three full NHL seasons although staying healthy has been a challenge at times.  He’s definitely a part of the core although a $7.5MM qualifying offer is required to retain his RFA rights.  That seemed reasonable back at the time but the market being what it is now and the cap flattening out, making room for that deal will be a bit trickier.  Roussel could have easily gone in the previous paragraph but he can still play an effective energy role.  He’s overpaid in that spot and will be looking at a lot less money two years from now but at least he provides some value.

Holtby was signed to act as a bridge goaltender for Demko to eventually move into the number one slot.  He could be appealing in expansion to the Kraken depending on how next season goes but with Demko expected to get the starting role eventually, Holtby may be hard-pressed to find a number one opening two years from now which means his next price tag could be a bit lower.

Three Years Remaining

F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
F J.T. Miller ($5.25MM, UFA)

Horvat doesn’t put up the offensive numbers that a true number one center does but when you factor everything else in, he’s a capable number one center.  He plays a lot of heavy defensive minutes while being the captain.  Assuming he hovers around the 60-point mark (he played above that rate last season), he’ll be highly coveted on the open market and should garner a sizable raise.  Miller’s acquisition was questioned at the time but he had the best season of his career in 2019-20, tallying over a point per game while logging more than 20 minutes a game for the first time.  If he shows this wasn’t just some good luck, he too will be coveted by many teams in free agency which means a raise would be on the horizon for him as well.  Ferland’s future is uncertain due to lingering concussion trouble.  He’s hoping to return for next season but hasn’t been cleared yet.  If he doesn’t get the green light, he’ll be eligible for LTIR which will at least give the Canucks some short-term breathing room on the cap.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

at CDT | by 8 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $79,146,667 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Mario Ferraro (two years, $925K)
F Danil Yurtaykin (one year, $925K)
F Lean Bergmann (two years, $837K)
F Fredrik Handemark (one year, $793K)
F Noah Gregor (one year, $768K)
F Alexander True (one year, $763K)
F Joachim Blichfeld (one year, $737K)

Potential Bonuses:

Ferraro: $213K
Bergmann: $133K
Handemark: $133K
Gregor: $65K
True: $20K
Blichfeld: $20K

Total: $584K

The Sharks are overloaded with plenty of prospects on entry-level deals. The team sampled many of those players last year in hopes of finding some bottom-six depth, but very few players were able to make their mark last year. The most obvious success was the play of Ferraro, who established himself as an NHL defenseman after spending two years at the University of Massachussets-Amherst playing alongside Cale Makar, and now will battle for a top-four spot in the Sharks’ lineup this year. While his offense is still coming around, the defenseman is a hard-worker and impressive locker room presence already after one season and should only get better.

Another player who should get a legitimate opportunity at center for San Jose is Handemark. The 27-year-old SHL veteran has been solid presence in Sweden for years and now will bring his talents over to San Jose in hopes of adding to the team’s bottom-six depth. Handemark had career highs of 14 goals and 38 points in 52 games and should replace the spot formerly held by Joe Thornton. The rest are less likely to make the squad unless one of them can prove they can handle a bottom-six role.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Devan Dubnyk ($2.17MM, UFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.9MM, RFA)
F Marcus Sorensen ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Stefan Noesen ($925K, UFA)
F Patrick Marleau ($700K, UFA)
F Matthew Nieto ($700K, UFA)
F Antti Suomela ($700K, UFA)
F Dylan Gambrell ($700K, RFA)

*- Minnesota is retaining an addition $2.17K of Dubnyk’s cap hit and salary

One of the most interesting acquisitions this offseason was bringing in both Dubnyk and Donato from Minnesota. Both be free agents in a year, although Dubnyk will be an unrestricted free agent. The team brought in the long-time Wild starter with the hopes that the 34-year-old might push for the starting goalie spot next season. Dubnyk is coming off one of his worst seasons in Minnesota after many solid seasons. The team hopes he can bounce back and solidify a weak position last year. The other piece to the trade with Minnesota was Donato, a highly-touted college prospect who is already on his fourth team in just three years. The Sharks hope that dropping him into a top-six situation might set the young forward off after scoring 14 goals last season.

For a minimum deal, the team will bring back Marleau, who has the opportunity to pass Gordie Howe for first place in the NHL in games played this season. Sorensen and Noesen should establish themselves in the bottom six. Sorensen looked on the verge of joining the top six after a 17-goal season in 2018-19, but came down to earth instead, scoring just seven goals. Noesen scored 13 goals in 2017-18 with New Jersey, something that San Jose hopes he can re-create this season. The same sentiment goes for veteran Matt Nieto signed out of Colorado.

Two Years Remaining

F Tomas Hertl ($5.63MM, UFA)
F Joel Kellman ($750K, UFA)
D Jacob Middleton ($725K, RFA)

Not much went right in San Jose last year and a major injury to Hertl, who tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee in January and had surgery in February to repair them. However, when healthy, Hertl was one of the team’s top players. He made the all-star game after posting 16 goals and 36 points in 48 games before the injury and was coming off a 35-goal season the previous year. If the team can get him healthy and have him bounce back in 2020-21, the team should be in good shape and have two seasons to observe his play before having to make a decision on a long-term deal.

Three Years Remaining

F Timo Meier ($6MM, RFA)

The 24-year-old forward has proven to be a solid, dependable goal scorer for the Sharks as he posted 22 goals and 49 points in 70 games last year. That’s a touch less than the 30 goals and 66 points he had in 78 games in 2018-19, but considering the type of season that San Jose had, he is still one of the core pieces for the next three years.Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $67,879,285 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Michael Anderson (two years, $925K)
F Quinton Byfield (three years, $925K)
F Blake Lizotte (one year, $925K)
F Gabriel Vilardi (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses:

Anderson: $850K
Byfield: $2.65MM
Lizotte: $850K
Vilardi: $850K
Total: $5.2MM

It has been a tough couple of years for Vilardi who has had lingering back issues to contend with.  Fortunately, he was able to make it up to the Kings in the weeks before the pandemic shut things down and he did pretty well in a limited role.  He’ll have a shot at a regular spot down the middle next season although he’ll be battling Byfield, the second-overall pick last month, for playing time.  He still has junior eligibility but with the OHL season not starting until February, it’s likely that he’ll break camp with the Kings.  Lizotte was a regular in the bottom six a year ago and assuming he can build off that performance, he should be able to garner at least a small raise next offseason.

As for Anderson, he’s like Vilardi in that he was able to get a brief look with Los Angeles before the pandemic hit and it was probably enough to earn him a spot as GM Rob Blake didn’t change up too much on his back end.  A full season should have him in line for a modest raise but given that his cumulative experience will be less than a regular 82-game campaign, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team try to get him to take a bit less than his qualifying offer while giving him a one-way pact.  Tobias Bjornfot (three years, $894K) broke camp with the Kings a year ago and could potentially do so again but it’s hard to imagine them burning the first year of his entry-level deal at this time.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Michael Amadio ($700K, RFA)
F Alex Iafallo ($2.425MM, UFA)
F Trevor Moore ($775K, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($700K, RFA)

Iafallo has very quietly become one of the better undrafted college free agent signings in recent years.  He has worked his way up to a top-six spot and very quietly finished second on the team in scoring last season.  This current UFA market hasn’t been the kindest to wingers but a similar showing from him next season should help generate plenty of interest which should secure him a nice raise with some security.  Moore was brought in from Toronto near the trade deadline and was relatively productive in limited action.  The first step is simply locking down a regular spot which is something that hasn’t happened yet and if he can do that, he’ll be well-positioned for at least a small raise although his arbitration eligibility may hurt him more than help him.  Amadio locked down a regular role last season and should be poised to build on that in 2020-21 which should comfortably move him out of league minimum territory.

Roy gave the Kings 18 minutes a night while being their best blueliner from a possession perspective.  A repeat performance could give him a strong enough platform to at least triple his current salary.  Any time a team can get a capable blueliner for the minimum, they’re thrilled.

Two Years Remaining

F Dustin Brown ($5.875MM, UFA)
F Jeff Carter ($5.273MM, UFA)
F Martin Frk ($725K, UFA)
F Adrian Kempe ($2MM, RFA)
D Olli Maatta ($3.333MM, UFA)*
D Kurtis MacDermid ($875K, UFA)
G Calvin Petersen ($858K, UFA)

*- Chicago is retaining an addition $750K of Maatta’s cap hit and salary

There are times where Brown has lived up to his price tag and others where it hasn’t been close.  He currently falls between the two as someone that’s paid to be a top-six winger and produces like a third-liner.  He’ll nearly be 38 when his next contract starts and he’ll be hard-pressed to come close to that AAV.  Carter is another player that’s on the downswing and it could very well be his last deal.  If not, he’ll be going year to year, potentially with some performance incentives.  Kempe is defensively strong while his offensive production has been consistently inconsistent.  This bridge deal makes a lot of sense for both sides and it will be his ability (or lack thereof) to improve at the offensive end that determines whether he’s a core piece of the future that can command a long-term deal or someone that has to take a lot of short-term pacts.  Frk was a strong scorer with AHL Ontario last season and did well enough to earn a two-year, one-way deal for his troubles although he could also be a candidate to be waived if other prospects show that they’re ready.

Maatta was brought in as a salary dump from the Blackhawks but he could very well be in line for a large role next season.  Still just 26, his contract could certainly be looked at more favorably if he can handle the increased ice time.  On the other hand, further struggles could lead to a 50% pay cut or more two years from now.  MacDermid is probably best suited to be a seventh option at this point and players in that situation are typically either retained at that price point or replaced by someone else at a similar rate.

Petersen has more than held his own in his first two partial seasons with the Kings although it is just a 19-game sample size.  As things stand, he is potentially their starter of the future and that could have him well-positioned for a significant jump into the multi-million range if all goes well.

Three Years Remaining

F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.9MM, UFA)

Wagner has a slightly higher price tag than a lot of fourth liners have had to take this offseason but there is still some upside (he’s only 23) and it’s not as if Los Angeles is short on cap space.  It’s a deal that looks a little expensive now but if he progresses a bit at the offensive end, it could be a bargain by the end.

Quick has been a fixture between the pipes in Los Angeles for more than a decade.  However, his performance tapered off considerably two years ago and only improved a little bit last season.  Part of that is the team in front of him – the Kings are no longer contenders as they were before – but at 34, age is starting to creep up to him.  He remains the starter and that price tag isn’t overly high for someone in that range as it’s only a bit above the median among starters but they haven’t received much bang for that buck lately.  As Petersen contends for more playing time, that’s not likely to change although Los Angeles will be better for it in the long run if he can ascend to that number one role and push Quick into playing less.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $82,529,158 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kailer Yamamoto (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Yamamoto: $230K

Yamamoto’s first two NHL stints didn’t go too well but that changed last year.  Upon being recalled back in late December, he immediately stepped into a top-six role and was productive, hovering near a point per game along the way.  If that continues into next season, he should have enough of a track record to command a sizable raise next year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Tyson Barrie ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Alex Chiasson ($2.15MM, UFA)
F Tyler Ennis ($1MM, UFA)
F Gaetan Haas ($915K, UFA)
F Dominik Kahun ($975K, RFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($1.2MM, RFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4.167MM, UFA)
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM, UFA)
F Joakim Nygard ($875K, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($1.5MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses

Smith: $500K

Nugent-Hopkins is the most notable player on this list by far and exploratory talks on an extension have taken place.  The 27-year-old has spent most of his career down the middle but has seen a lot more time on the left wing in recent years and his production has taken off as a result.  Either as a top-scoring winger or a capable pivot, he should be able to get a small raise on his current deal as well as a long-term pact.  Chiasson’s second season didn’t go as well as his first and if he produces at a similar rate next season, he will be taking a cut in Edmonton or somewhere else.  Khaira is a fourth liner most nights and that price tag would be hard to justify in this era so he looks like a non-tender candidate at this time while Nygard and Haas are role players who could be retained or replaced with similar-priced players a year from now.

Ennis and Kahun have the potential to be two of the better bargain signings this offseason (Kahun could wind up as the best bargain depending on what else happens).  Ennis showed that he still has some production in him with Ottawa and certainly held his own after being moved to Edmonton at the deadline and it won’t take much to justify that price tag.  Kahun was a surprising non-tender by Buffalo and figures to play in their middle six.  There’s still some upside in his game and he should be counted on as a reliable secondary scorer for a team that has been lacking in that department at times.

Barrie spurned higher-priced offers to try to rebuild his value and he’ll certainly fit in as the anchor on the back end on the power play.  The rest of his game isn’t the strongest but he has never been known as a staunch defender; point production is what will make or break his hopes of cashing in a year from now.  Larsson is naturally best known for being the single asset coming to the Oilers from the Taylor Hall trade but while he hasn’t been able to reach the top pairing status that his draft selection would suggest, he is an effective top-four option.  He’s not looking at a big raise a year from now but something around what he’s making now is certainly doable.

Smith didn’t have a great year last season but the team opted to bring him back.  At 38, he’s going year-to-year at this point and will need to improve in his second go-round to have a shot at even a modest raise next offseason.

Two Years Remaining

F Josh Archibald ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Caleb Jones ($850K, RFA)
G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Darnell Nurse ($5.6MM, UFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($1.175MM, RFA)
D Kris Russell ($4MM in 2020-21, $1.25MM in 2021-22, UFA)
F Kyle Turris ($1.65MM, UFA)

Turris was brought in to give the Oilers another proven option down the middle, a move that further cements Nugent-Hopkins’ short-term future on the wing.  Yes, he struggled in Nashville under the weight of his old contract but with a clearly-defined role and a reasonable price tag, he should fare much better with the Oilers.  Archibald has quietly put up a dozen goals over each of the last two seasons which earned him a bit of security but he’ll need to better those numbers if he wants a bigger contract two years from now.  Puljujarvi is going to be one of the more interesting players to follow next season.  He didn’t get his trade and while he played well in Finland, there are still plenty of question marks.  There’s an opportunity for him and if he grabs it, he could be in line for a big raise down the road.  If he doesn’t, he’s someone that could find himself without a qualifying offer as well.

Nurse opted to take a deal that brought him straight to UFA eligibility back in February.  It’s something that’s riskier now than it was back then but as we saw this offseason, impact blueliners still got paid.  Accordingly, even if the cap crunch remains in 2022, it shouldn’t hurt his fortunes too much.  Russell had to take a significant pay cut but was able to leverage next year’s expansion into an early extension, one that’s more in line with the role he plays.  Jones is now waiver-eligible so he’s a safe bet to be on the roster but will likely have a limited role next season.

Koskinen’s extension two years ago was baffling and appeared to be the final straw that pushed out former GM Peter Chiarelli.  It’s not that he has been particularly bad by any stretch but he is still rather unproven at the age of 32 and hasn’t shown that he can handle a full number one workload.  At this point, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to land a big raise on the open market but GM Ken Holland will certainly have to budget a higher amount for a more proven starter that offseason.  If Koskinen is ultimately retained at a similar rate, then more money will need to be invested into the backup position and with Nurse being the only big-ticket expiring deal (and they’ll want to retain him), freeing up more goalie money could be tricky.

Three Years Remaining

D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)
F James Neal ($5.75MM, UFA)

Neal had a bit of a resurgence last season, jumping from seven goals the year before to 19 despite the pandemic cutting things short.  That’s still not a great return on that price tag by any stretch but it’s still an improvement.  Despite that, this is a contract that could be bought out by the time it’s set to expire.

Klefbom is set to miss potentially the entire season due to shoulder troubles which freed up the money to sign Barrie (as Klefbom will head to LTIR, allowing Edmonton to exceed the cap).  He has turned into a legitimate top-pairing player and assuming he’s able to come back in 2021-22 and pick up where he left off, he’s looking at a significant raise on his next deal.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $80,489,166 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dillon Dube (one year, $778K)
D Juuso Valimaki (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Dube: $32.5K
Valimaki: $425K
Total: $457.5K

After being recalled in mid-November, Dube was up to stay with Calgary, playing in 45 regular season games as well as all ten playoff games.  While he’s projected to be a full-time regular next year, it’s unlikely that he’ll command a significant raise on his next deal unless he’s able to grab a top-six role which isn’t likely at this stage of his career.  Valimaki missed all of last season while recovering from knee surgery.  As things stand, he should slot in on the third pairing but with how much development time he has lost, a bridge contract next offseason is quite likely for him.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Sam Bennett ($2.55MM, RFA)
F Josh Leivo ($875K, UFA)
D Nikita Nesterov ($700K, UFA)
F Joakim Nordstrom ($700K, UFA)
G David Rittich ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Derek Ryan ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Dominik Simon ($700K, UFA)

It wasn’t a good regular season at all for Bennett who looked like he was heading straight towards non-tender territory for the 2021 offseason.  Then the playoffs came where he was much better.  A full-season showing like that would have him well-positioned for a raise next offseason but if not, Calgary could still view his $2.55MM qualifier as too rich for them.  Ryan’s point per game average was comparable to that of his previous two seasons which is a positive.  However, with the state of the market now, his deal has gone from decent value to a slight overpayment and considering he’ll be 34 when his next contract begins, it’s difficult to see him getting a raise next year.  Leivo was well on his way to a career year before a fractured kneecap derailed things and resulted in him needing to take a show-me deal.  This has the potential to be one of the better bargains from free agency and if he stays healthy and produces around a 30-35-point level, he’ll be in good shape for a nice raise next year.  Simon and Nordstrom are likely to be fourth line or depth players and barring a surprise offensive uptick, both will be looking at similar amounts a year from now.

Nesterov’s return to the NHL came as a bit of a surprise but it’s a no-risk move for the Flames.  Offensively, he can contribute but he will need to show some defensive improvement to have an opportunity to land a more prominent contract next summer.  Rittich’s chance of getting a better deal next offseason is certainly in jeopardy after the year he had and the fact he is now cemented as a backup goaltender.  Calgary may be able to look to sign him (or someone else) for a bit cheaper next year to free up a bit more wiggle room.

Two Years Remaining

F Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Mark Giordano ($6.75MM, UFA)
F Andrew Mangiapane ($2.425MM, RFA)
F Matthew Tkachuk ($7MM, RFA)

Gaudreau’s value certainly took a dip last season but while he didn’t come close to the 99-point mark again, he still was in the top 50 in scoring league-wide.  His playoff performances have underwhelmed but at 27, there’s little reason to think he isn’t going to be an impact player for several years to come.  Unless his output drops again, he’s still looking at a pricey deal on his next contract and whether or not it’s a small raise or cut will depend on his ability to approach his 2018-19 levels.  Mangiapane’s first full NHL season was a strong one as he carved out a top-six role.  Assuming he can hold onto that, he’ll be in line for a raise with arbitration rights two years from now.

Tkachuk is going to be one of the more intriguing RFA cases of the 2022 cohort.  He’s still subject to the old rules for qualifying offers which means Calgary must tender a $9MM qualifying offer.  Under the old cap environment (one that had frequent increases), that was still significant but now, it’s even more important.  The Flames can take him to arbitration which could potentially lower the cost but the minimum award would be $7.65MM and chances are that Tkachuk will perform well enough to do better than that.  He also has the option to just file for arbitration himself or accept the qualifying offer; either route would walk him to UFA eligibility at 25 in the prime of his career.  Accordingly, GM Brad Treliving will almost certainly be wanting to start extension talks as soon as possible (the first official day of the 2021-22 campaign).

Giordano saw his point production decline sharply last season but the 2019 Norris Trophy winner is still a fixture on the top pairing for the Flames.  His price tag is more than reasonable but he will be hard-pressed to command a similar deal two years from now when he’ll be entering his age-39 season.  He’ll be eligible for bonuses in one-year deals at that time and that will probably be the route that teams will want to go with him.

Three Years Remaining

F Milan Lucic ($5.25MM, UFA)*
F Sean Monahan ($6.375MM, UFA)

*- Edmonton is retaining another $750K on Lucic’s deal

Like Gaudreau, Monahan is coming off of a big drop offensively which had some wondering if he’d be moved if Treliving opted to shake up his roster.  That didn’t happen and instead, he’ll have an opportunity to try to re-establish himself as a fixture on the top line.  Still just 26, Monahan could be an intriguing free agent three years from now with impact centers not often making it to the open market.  Lucic, meanwhile, is viewed as having one of the worst contracts in the league.  Unfortunately for Calgary, the structure of the deal (frontloading with signing bonuses) makes it effectively buyout-proof so this is one they’re probably not going to be able to get out of unless they can find another bad contract for bad contract swap.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Arizona Coyotes

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Arizona Coyotes

Current Cap Hit: $84,270,284 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Barrett Hayton (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Hayton: $1.75MM

Once considered a team full of young players, the Coyotes have changed their image over the last few years and have only one young player on their team under a cheap entry-level deal with only a handful of entry-level players that are even close to joining the team. Hayton, however, could be ready for a breakout season after spending the season with the team last year. Unfortunately for Hayton, he would have benefitted the most with one year in the AHL, but wasn’t eligible to play there, so instead of returning him to his junior team, the Coyotes kept him around. He only appeared in 20 games (although he did miss time with a shoulder injury at the World Juniors), but showed enough potential that he should be an everyday player next season. A big year from the 2019 fifth-overall pick would be a boost to the team’s center position.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Derek Stepan ($6.5MM, UFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($5.48MM, UFA)
F Marian Hossa ($5.28MM, UFA)
D Niklas Hjalmarsson ($5MM, UFA)
G Antti Raanta ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Jason Demers ($3.94MM, UFA)
D Jordan Oesterle ($1.4MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($1MM, UFA)
F Conor Garland ($775K, RFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, RFA)
F Dryden Hunt ($700K, RFA)

For a team that is looking to cut salary, the team has a lot of money coming off the books next year, suggesting the team could look drastically different in just one year. Some of those players could find themselves to be trade bait when the trade deadline comes around. The most interesting decision the team might have to make is what to do with Stepan, however. The 30-year-old was brought in from New York to stabilize their top line three years ago. He had four straight seasons of 50 or more points while with the Rangers and posted a 56-point season with the Coyotes in 2017-18. However, his production has taken a dive over the past two years as Stepan posted just 35 points (in 72 games) in 2018-19 and then dropped even further last year with just 28 points in 70 games. A team leader, the Coyotes have to hope that Stepan can return to form this season or the team could choose to move on from him.

The team’s defense is loaded with several high-priced veteran blueliners and almost all of their contracts come up next season, including Goligoski, Hjalmarsson and Demers. Goligoski is 35, but is still playing major minutes for Arizona and could be a candidate to return at a slightly lesser deal. Hjalmarsson is 33, but has seen his game break down a bit as he has dealt with numerous injuries the last couple of years, including a fractured fibula that cost him 43 games last year. The 32-year-old Demers also averaged more than 20 minutes of ATOI per game. The team may keep one or two of those players, but likely will not keep all three.

The team will also want to evaluate the play of Raanta, who has showed flashes of dominance, but also has dealt with injuries and inconsistent play at times as well. Raanta did play well last season, posting a .921 save percentage in 33 games and gives the team several options in the net. Raanta could easily be re-signed to new deal or could be a trade candidate as well.

The team will also finally be free of Hossa’s $5.28MM contract the team took on years ago.

Two Years Remaining

F Phil Kessel ($6.8MM, UFA)
G Darcy Kuemper ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Lawson Crouse ($1.53MM, RFA)
F Johan Larsson ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Christian Fischer ($1MM, RFA)

The team brought in Kessel to bring in the firepower that the team needed as goal scoring remains one of the team’s biggest weak points. Unfortunately, the first year with Kessel didn’t turn out to be the big acquisition that the team was hoping for. After an 28-goal, 82-point season in 2018-19, the 33-year-old saw quite a decline in his play with just 14 goals and 38 points in 70 games. That’s way below what they were hoping for and Arizona has to hope that Kessel can return to form this year in hopes of increasing his value if the team wants to move him at the trade deadline or next offseason when he has just one year left on his deal.

Kuemper has become the Coyotes’ top asset as the 30-year-old has been nothing short of dominant over the past two years and remains on a manageable contract. His name came up in trade speculation this offseason, but with so many free-agent goalies available, Arizona didn’t get the offers it was hoping for. That could change down the road. Yet at the same time, Kuemper might be worth keeping around down the road.

Three Years Remaining

None

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