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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2019

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

at CDT | by 16 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $95,152,493 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Travis Dermott (one year, $863K)
F Ilya Mikheyev (one year, $925K)
F Dmytro Timashov (one year, $694K)
D Rasmus Sandin (three years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Timashov: $70K

Mikheyev was highly coveted out of the KHL this offseason and should play a regular role on the third line right off the bat.  If he can maintain that role, he’ll be in a good position to earn a decent raise on this rookie max although he won’t have arbitration eligibility despite turning 25 next week.  Timashov is coming off his top season in the AHL although he wasn’t someone that was expected to crack the roster a month ago.  As a waiver-exempt player, expect him to go back and forth between the Maple Leafs and their AHL affiliate for cap savings later in the season and a limited role in the lineup should only have him looking at a small raise.

Dermott locked down a full-time role last year although he starts this season on LTIR.  He’s not likely to progress off the third pairing too often given the depth in front of him which will limit his offensive chances and thus, his earning potential for his next deal.  A short-term bridge pact is likely for him next summer.  Sandin impressed with the AHL Marlies in his post-draft season which has helped earn him a roster spot for the time being at least.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Tyson Barrie ($2.75MM, UFA)*
D Cody Ceci ($4.5MM, UFA)
F David Clarkson ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Frederik Gauthier ($675K, RFA)
D Justin Holl ($675K, UFA)
F Nathan Horton ($5.3MM UFA)
G Michael Hutchinson ($700K, UFA)
D Martin Marincin ($700K, UFA)
D Jake Muzzin ($4MM, UFA)
F Nick Shore ($775K, UFA)
F Jason Spezza ($700K, UFA)

* – Colorado is retaining an additional $2.75MM on Barrie’s deal

Horton and Clarkson haven’t played for a while and won’t play at all this season and will be on LTIR all year long as a result.  Toronto actually re-acquired Clarkson in an effort to maximize their ability to keep their core intact this season by increasing how much LTIR they’re allowed to use.  Shore returns after spending last season in the KHL and will play a limited role on the fourth line which means it shouldn’t cost much more than this to keep him around next year.  If not, they’ll sign someone else for around that amount.  Spezza took quite a cut in pay (from $7.5MM to the league minimum) to play for his hometown team but is also expected to have a limited role.  Like Shore, he’ll either be kept at that rate or replaced by someone who will take the minimum.  Gauthier is a regular on the fourth line but his offensive upside is limited and while he’s owed a bit of raise simply from his qualifying offer, he shouldn’t cost much more than that.

Barrie has been quite productive from the back end in his career and he’ll be poised to cash in on that next summer, especially with some of the recent extensions handed out to what were pending UFA defenders.   With their salary commitments for next year already, his price tag may very well be well beyond what they can afford.  Ceci struggled the last couple of years in Ottawa but a more limited role, one that he is better suited to play, could certainly help him rebuild his value.  Otherwise, he shouldn’t be looking at much of a raise next summer.  Muzzin was brought in near the trade deadline to stabilize their back end and he fared relatively well.  He’s also looking at a raise next summer but it’s one that Toronto may be able to absorb if Barrie winds up leaving.  Marincin and Holl have served as depth over the last couple of seasons but they’ll need to be retained at the league minimum or replaced by someone else at that rate.

Hutchinson wound up being Toronto’s backup in the playoffs and their comfort with him helped him land another contract, albeit at a notable dip in pay.  He hasn’t really established himself as a quality backup in the NHL just yet but with the backup goalie market going up in recent years, a good showing this season would really help his market a year from now.

Two Years Remaining

G Frederik Andersen ($5MM, UFA)
F Zach Hyman ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Trevor Moore ($775K, RFA)

Hyman has been a fixture in Toronto’s top six over the past couple of years although the offensive numbers aren’t quite as high as his linemates.  Nonetheless, if he’s around the 40-point mark again over the next couple of years, he’ll be in line for a fairly sizable raise on the open market.  Moore is entering his first full season in the NHL but isn’t expected to play a big role this year.  As a supporting cast player, his next contract shouldn’t be substantially higher than this, nor would that be one that they can afford.

Andersen has worked out quite well for the Maple Leafs after coming over in a trade from Anaheim.  He has established himself as one of the better starting goalies in the league and is doing so at a rate that’s well below the going rate for quality number one netminders.  While he may not get the type of money that Carey Price and Sergei Bobrovsky are making ($10MM or more), he should come in relatively close to that.  Finding a way to keep him in the fold will be tricky for Toronto but given his importance to the team, they’re certainly going to try and will likely begin extension discussions next summer to see if something can be done.

Three Years Remaining

F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, RFA)
D Morgan Rielly ($5MM, UFA)

Kapanen’s first full NHL season was a strong one as he cracked the 20-goal mark.  Toronto’s cap situation basically forced them to pursue a bridge deal but continuing to produce at that rate will have him in good shape for a big raise being a year away from UFA status with arbitration eligibility.  At a time where these deals are back-loaded with big jumps in qualifying offers, Kapanen’s is the exact opposite – it’s front-loaded with signing bonuses meaning that his qualifier three years from now will only be $840K.

Rielly has turned into quite the bargain and is coming off a season that saw him set career highs across the board while really ascending into their number one role.  Even if his numbers dip a bit from the 72 points he had last season, he looks like a candidate to double his current AAV on his next contract.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM through 2022-23)
F Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM through 2022-23)
F Auston Matthews ($11.634MM through 2023-24)
F Mitch Marner ($10.893MM through 2024-25)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM through 2023-24)
F John Tavares ($11MM through 2024-25)

Matthews really set the tone for this recent crop of RFAs when he landed the second-richest post-entry-level deal in league history and only lost one year of UFA eligibility in the process.  Assuming he progresses as Toronto hopes, he could wind up with a contract larger than Connor McDavid’s $12.5MM AAV.  Tavares, their new captain, was the headline unrestricted free agent in 2018 and gives the Maple Leafs an enviable one-two punch down the middle.  By the time his current deal is up, he probably won’t be worth this price tag but he should still be able to land a multi-year commitment.  Marner just signed his deal a couple of weeks ago and it was the richest given to a winger exiting his entry-level pact.  Considering that the winger market for unrestricted free agents just hit a new record, Marner could certainly eclipse this price tag if he makes it to the open market.  Nylander took until just before the deadline to sign last season, something that actually gives Toronto a bit of cap savings as his cap hit is more than $500K below the face value of the deal.  With those four, the Maple Leafs now have more than $40MM tied up long-term.  That type of commitment to four players is unprecedented and will play a big role in any moves they make beyond this season.

Kerfoot was brought in alongside Barrie to help replace Nazem Kadri down the middle.  He has been consistent in terms of his production over his first two NHL seasons and if he can sustain that 40-point output, a raise and a top-six role could be on the horizon for him in free agency.  Like Kapanen, Johnsson is coming off his rookie season, one that saw him reach 20 goals.  He had arbitration eligibility but opted not to use it, instead opting for a deal that buys out a UFA year but gave him a big raise over his previous deal which checked in just under $800K.  Similar to Kerfoot, staying at this offensive level should give him a chance at a raise in four years although he doesn’t play the premium position.

Buyouts

F Mikhail Grabovski ($1.791MM through 2020-21, cap-exempt as it was a compliance buyout)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Phil Kessel ($1.2MM through 2021-22)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Rielly
Worst Value: Ceci

Looking Ahead

While Toronto is in cap compliance for now, there is still some work that will likely need to be done when Hyman and Dermott are activated off LTIR; both are expected back in about three weeks.  Even if they can get back into compliance with them on the active roster, they’re likely not going to have much wiggle room to work with so expect frequent recalls and demotions to the AHL to try to bank a bit of space.

Beyond this year, with Horton (and now Clarkson) coming off the books, Toronto won’t have LTIR to utilize starting next season so their spending will look a fair bit different.  They will have some tough decisions on the horizon though with their pending UFA defenders next summer, Andersen in 2021, and Reilly in 2022 coming off the books.  Will they be able to keep them and keep their big four intact?  That’s the question that GM Kyle Dubas will need to try to determine the answer to and it will make them an intriguing team to follow in the next few years to see how they navigate the salary cap waters.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $79,773,331 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Mikhail Sergachev (one year, $894K)
F Alexander Volkov (one year, $864K)
F Mitchell Stephens (one year, $833K)
F Anthony Cirelli (one year, $728K)
F Mathieu Joseph (one year, $728K)
D Erik Cernak (one year, $698K)

Potential Bonuses

Sergachev: $850K
Cirelli: $183K
Joseph: $183K
Cernak: $148K

The Tampa Bay Lightning have done exceedingly well with their young players as they always seem to have key contributors filling out their roster who are on low-cost salaries. Unfortunately for the team all of those entry-level contracts will be expiring after this season. However, for a team that is fighting for a Stanley Cup title, the Lightning should be happy to have several of these players around for this year.

At the top of the list is Sergachev, who came over in the Jonathan Drouin trade a couple of seasons ago. Sergachev has improved greatly, but is still battling for a top-four role, one which he may win this season as he continues to develop his skills. The 21-year-old already has 15 goals and 72 points over two seasons, but spent most of his time last year as a third-line option for Tampa Bay. The team hopes he can win a spot on the first line and earn some power play time to allow his offensive skills to kick in for the Lightning. Another strong season could force Tampa Bay to pay up significantly for him. The team also got some impressive play from Cernak last season who came up and found a permanent home with his physical play.

Cirelli and Joseph have made an impact for Tampa Bay as well. After an solid stint back in 2017-18, Cirelli had a breakout season, scoring 19 goals and 39 points last season and could take another step up this season with J.T. Miller gone. Joseph surprised quite a few when he made the team last year out of training camp, posting 13 goals and 26 points in a third-line role most of the time. The opportunities may continue to increase for the 22-year-old who has showed a hard-working mentality as well as solid skill.

Both Stephens and Volkov are in their last year of their entry-level contract, but both could see time up with the Lightning at some point this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Mike Condon ($2.4MM, UFA — buried at $1.33MM)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)
G Louis Domingue ($1.15MM, UFA) — buried at $75K)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Danick Martel ($700K, RFA)
D Luke Schenn ($700K, UFA)

In their pursuit of a Stanley Cup, the team went out and acquired some veteran players to help the team for this year. They signed Shattenkirk immediately after being bought out from the New York Rangers to give the team a key veteran after they lost Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi in the offseason. The team hopes Shattenkirk can find his game and stay healthy this year and be able to provide quality minutes. They also hope Schenn can provide solid depth and physicality at the bottom of their lineup. On offense, the team also went out and signed Maroon to add some grit to their fourth line after the team lost Ryan Callahan to injury. Callahan was very productive in his time with the Lightning, but injuries derailed his last couple of years.

To unload the final year of Callahan’s contract, the Lightning traded him to Ottawa and were forced to accept Condon, who the team has already buried in the minors to give the team more cap flexibility. Domingue has been buried in the AHL as well.

Two Years Remaining

D Braydon Coburn ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($1.65MM, UFA)
G Curtis McElhinney ($1.3MM, UFA)
D Luke Witkowski ($700K, UFA)

Despite a solid backup in Domingue, the Lightning surprised quite a few people when they inked McElhinney to a two-year deal, plucking him away from a number of interested teams. The 36-year-old veteran had an impressive season after being claimed by Carolina at the beginning of last season. McElhinney appeared in 33 games, picking up 20 wins with a 2.58 GAA and a .912 save percentage. The hope is the veteran will provide some extra insurance and maybe take some of the workload off the starter this season.

The team also has high hopes that bringing back Coburn as well as a gritty multi-versatile player like Witkowski will give Tampa Bay some much needed depth on their blueline.

Three Years Remaining

F Brayden Point ($6.75MM, RFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)

The Lightning has done exactly what it wants to do with Point, which was get him signed to a three-year bridge deal, something the team does with all its players before locking them up to long-term deals. Now the team has three more years to evaluate him before they have to lock him up to a long-term deal. The deal is actually quite reasonable, considering how much the center has excelled in each of his three seasons. Point’s rookie season was solid with 18 goals, but that number increased to a 32-goal campaign in 2017-18 and he followed that up with a 41-goal, 92-point season last year, making him one of the top young forwards in the game. Regardless, the team was able to sign him for a reasonable cost, giving the Lightning another strong presence at a discounted rate.

On the other hand, Palat may be the opposite of Point. Having struggled with injuries the past couple of seasons, the 28-year-old has appeared in just 120 out of 164 games over the past two seasons and scored a disappointing eight goals in 64 games last year as he’s slipped to a third-line role after a promising 23-goal rookie season back in 2013-14. Since then he’s scored in the teens, but has seen those numbers dip even further with his injury history. Unfortunately, at $5.3MM, the team hopes he can get healthy and rebound as he would be a hard player to find a trade partner for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM through 2023-24)
D Victor Hedman ($7.88MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM through 2025-26)
F Yanni Gourde ($5.17MM through 2024-25)
F Tyler Johnson ($5MM through 2023-24)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM through 2022-23)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($3.5MM in 2019-20; $9.5MM through 2027-28)

The team has done a phenomenal job of signing their top talent. Kucherov is arguably one of the top three players in the league and is now just starting his eight-year contract at a reasonable $9.5MM. The 26-year-old scored 41 goals and 128 points to win the Hart Memorial Trophy, Art Ross Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award and should be one of the greats for the Lightning for a long time. Stamkos also continues to put up big numbers for someone whose $8.5MM deal looks pretty good. He potted 45 goals last season and a career-high 98 points, which gives Tampa Bay an impressive one-two punch, which doesn’t even include Point.

The Lightning also has quite a bit tied up into their top two defensemen in Hedman and McDonagh. Hedman is one of the top defensemen in the league, only a year removed from winning the Norris Trophy in 2017-18. He posted an impressive 12 goals and 54 points last season and remains in his prime. It’s too early to see how he will fare as he gets older as his contract will run through his age-34 season. But by the time Hedman truly slows down, there shouldn’t be that much time remaining on his deal. As for McDonagh, the team’s second-best defenseman still posted solid numbers, nine goals and 46 points. However, he is two years older than Hedman and has a seventh year remaining on his contract, meaning he’ll be 37 in his final season, which suggests that his contract could become an issue even in just a few years.

As for Gourde, Johnson and Killorn, the team hopes that with the salary cap likely rising over the next few years, those role players’ deals will still look good, if not very good as they age. All have become solid contributors as middle-six players and hopefully will give the team good value over the next four or five years.

Buyouts

D Matt Carle (1.83MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Point
Worst Value: Palat

Looking Ahead

The job that Steve Yzerman has done to get the franchise to this point, which might be one of the most impressive organizations that have been built, is impressive and the hope that Julien BriseBois will continue that success in Tampa Bay. The team had an amazing regular season a year ago, but a quick exit in the playoffs left many to wonder whether the team is as good as many think. However, BriseBois has done a good job bringing in some more veterans as well as some grit in hopes that this offensive team doesn’t get pushed around too much this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Hit: $71,234,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Drake Batherson (two years, $737K)
F Logan Brown (two years, $863K)
D Thomas Chabot (one year, $863K)
D Christian Jaros (one year, $755K)
F Brady Tkachuk (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Batherson: $20K
Brown: $710K
Chabot: $360K
Tkachuk: $2.5MM

Tkachuk had a strong rookie campaign with 45 points while providing some size and physicality at the top of their lineup.  With their trade deadline moves from last season, it paved the way for Tkachuk to take on a bigger role.  He’s likely to see some time on the top line this year and at this stage, his next contract could be similar to the one his brother signed, if not higher.  Brown had a good first pro campaign in the minors and will be looking to lock down an NHL role this season.  He’s someone that will need to get some NHL time before assessing what his next contract could look like.  Batherson averaged over a point per game in the minors last year and didn’t look out of place in his time with Ottawa and a full-time spot is on the horizon for him.  If his AHL production translates to the NHL, he could be in line for a nice second contract.

Chabot has quickly blossomed into a top pairing defender and has signed a new contract that will be covered later.  Jaros held down a depth role last season and figures to be in the mix for that same spot in 2019-20.  That should get him a bit of a raise next summer but stay-at-home defenders don’t have a high earning upside.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Craig Anderson ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Mikkel Boedker ($4MM, UFA)
F Mark Borowiecki ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Connor Brown ($2.1MM, RFA)
F Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM, UFA)
D Dylan DeMelo ($900K, UFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($1.65MM, RFA)
F Tyler Ennis ($800K, UFA)
D Ron Hainsey ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Clarke MacArthur ($4.65MM, UFA)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Chris Tierney ($2.938MM, RFA)

Boedker was brought last offseason as a salary offset as part of the Mike Hoffman trade but the change of scenery didn’t help as he scored just seven goals last season.  He is looking at a sizable pay cut one year from now.  Pageau is coming off a tough year on the injury front but he has emerged as a quality third line center that can win draws, kill penalties, and score some timely goals.  That will make him highly coveted at the trade deadline and on the open market next summer where he should be in line for a bit of a raise.  Tierney made the most of his larger role in Ottawa to put up a career year in points.  A repeat performance would go a long way towards bolstering his arbitration case where a deal north of $4MM could be on the horizon.  Brown saw his production drop the last couple of years in Toronto but he’ll have a chance to play a bigger role this season.  He’ll need to become a bigger offensive threat if he wants to get top-six money.  Duclair fit in surprisingly well after being a late-season acquisition which earned him a nice raise a summer ago.  Even a repeat of his 2018-19 output (33 points in 74 games) would really help position himself for a multi-year deal and some job security.  Ennis should get a chance to have a bit bigger of a role than he did with Toronto but he’s probably someone who will be signing this type of deal one year from now.  Callahan and MacArthur have already been ruled out for the year and will be retiring officially when their contract expires.  Insurance will cover the majority of their deals.

Hainsey was brought in to mentor some of their younger blueliners and figures to be a potential trade candidate by February.  At 38, it’s hard to imagine he’ll get a bigger contract than this one but if he can hold up around 20 minutes a night again, he should be able to land another decent deal next summer.  Borowiecki has been with the Sens for his entire career and if he’s willing to accept a similar contract to this one to stay on their third pairing, he’ll probably stick around.  DeMelo did pretty well with a bigger role than he had in San Jose and that should help position himself for a considerably higher payday next summer.

This may be the final year for Anderson who will be 39 by the time his contract expires.  If nothing else, he could be someone a team looks to acquire if one of their goalies gets injured for a lengthy period of time between now and the trade deadline.

Two Years Remaining

F Artem Anisimov ($4.55MM, UFA)
F Marian Gaborik ($4.875MM, UFA)
G Anders Nilsson ($2.6MM, UFA)
D Christian Wolanin ($900K, RFA)

Anisimov was brought in this summer to give Ottawa a bit more of an offensive threat down the middle while saving some money in salary paid at the same time.  However, he’s not the player he was just a few years ago with Chicago so it’s unlikely he’ll be able to get a contract close to this on the open market.  Like Callahan and MacArthur, Gaborik isn’t expected to play again and will be on IR for the next two years.

Wolanin will miss most of this season after undergoing shoulder surgery.  His deal converts to a one-way pact for 2020-21 and he should be able to land a full-time roster spot for that season.  However, if he’s just in a depth role, he’ll have a hard time commanding much more than his qualifying offer.

Nilsson struggled with Vancouver last year but did a bit better with the Senators after being acquired in a midseason swap.  He’s expected to be in a platoon role with Anderson this year and if he does well enough to remain in a timeshare next season, a raise two years from now might not be out of the question.

Three Years Remaining

F Bobby Ryan ($7.25MM, UFA)

There was once a time that Ottawa believed that Ryan could be a centerpiece for their franchise for years to come after they signed him to this deal following one season with the team.  He had a couple of okay but underwhelming seasons thereafter before things went completely off the rails.  Ryan has battled injuries in two of the last three years while failing to score more than 15 goals in any of those, hardly the type of return they were looking for from someone making top line money.  Their cap space makes it unlikely that they’ll need to buy him out but he’s a player that they will try to give a fresh scenery to at some point over the next three years if they can find a taker for his cap hit.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Thomas Chabot ($8MM through 2027-28, contract begins in 2020-21)
F Colin White ($4.75MM through 2024-25)
D Nikita Zaitsev ($4.5MM through 2023-24)

White’s first full NHL season was a good one as he established himself as a legitimate top-six option for the foreseeable future.  That was enough to get GM Pierre Dorion to commit the largest contract that he had handed out…at least for a few weeks.

Chabot will soon be playing under the largest post-entry-level contract given to a defenseman in league history, surpassing Aaron Ekblad’s $7.5MM AAV in Florida.  He thrived despite being thrown to the wolves on the top pairing and while the price tag may be a bit high at the beginning, it locks him up through the prime of his career and as their prospects develop to improve their depth, that should help him become that much better.  Zaitsev has not fared well in the first two years of this contract and he’ll be counted on to play an even bigger role with Ottawa.  If he can improve, they’ll get a decent return on this deal but if not, it could be a tough one to move out.

Buyouts

F Alexandre Burrows ($0 cap hit but they are paying out $833K in salary; the full cap hit was absorbed last season)
D Dion Phaneuf ($729K in 2019-20, $1.354MM in 2020-21, $354K in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Tierney
Worst Value: Ryan

Looking Ahead

The Senators have managed to get above the cap floor for the upcoming season which was the talking point heading into the summer but they’re in no danger of surpassing the Upper Limit anytime soon.  They will have to spend a fair bit more before long though with Chabot’s new deal plus Tkachuk’s on the horizon.  Ottawa is very well-positioned in terms of flexibility with only a few long-term contracts on the books which bodes well for them if they decide to try to spend to add a core piece or two down the road.  That should give them some hope for the future even though the upcoming season may not be the most successful in the standings.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $78,318,809 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Cale Fleury (two years, $772K)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi (two years, $925K)
F Victor Mete (one year, $748K)
F Ryan Poehling (two years, $925K)
F Nick Suzuki (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Fleury: $132.5K
Kotkaniemi: $2.5MM
Suzuki: $425K

Kotkaniemi surprised many by landing a full-time spot on Montreal’s roster last season where he acquitted himself rather well even if the offensive numbers didn’t jump off the page.  If he continues his upward trajectory, he’s someone that the Canadiens will likely look to sign to a long-term extension next summer at a rate that would have to be comparable to some of the notable post-ELC players that have signed as of late in order to get him to sign.  Poehling made quite the first impression in the final game of last season and is believed to largely be NHL-ready though Montreal’s depth up front means he may have to start in the minors.  If that happens, an early extension next summer is probably off the table.  Suzuki, a 2017 first-rounder, has played himself into the mix for a roster spot but it’s too early to forecast what his next deal might look like.

Mete has largely held his own defensively since surprisingly making it to the NHL at 19 and he has become an important part of their back end.  However, his lack of offensive production will wind up limiting his earning potential on his second contract.  Unless the Canadiens overpay with the hope that he will add that element to his game, his next deal could wind up being a bridge.  Fleury wouldn’t have been mentioned had this been written a couple of weeks ago but head coach Claude Julien recently pegged him as pretty much NHL-ready so clearly, he’s in the mix for a roster spot as well.  That said, his role would be minimal which wouldn’t lend itself towards a long-term deal two years from now.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nick Cousins ($1MM, RFA)
F Max Domi ($3.15MM, RFA)
D Christian Folin ($800K, UFA)
F Charles Hudon ($800K, RFA)
G Keith Kinkaid ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Matthew Peca ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Nate Thompson ($1MM, UFA)
F Dale Weise ($2.35MM, UFA)

Domi’s situation is one of the more interesting ones for Montreal.  He’s coming off of a much-improved 2018-19 campaign that saw him post career highs across the board while doing so as a full-time center for the first time.  Those will certainly help his negotiating leverage but at the same time, there are understandably questions about whether this level of performance can be sustained based on how he performed with Arizona.  GM Marc Bergevin admitted that they had started talks regarding an extension but given the sizable difference in performance over the last two years, the more prudent move is to wait.  A repeat performance from last season could vault him past the $7MM mark pretty quickly though.

Weise was part of a midseason trade last year where the principal pieces were players on bad contracts with the hopes a change of scenery would do them some good.  That didn’t really happen as he’s now on waivers, he’s likely to be in the minors which means that more than half his cap hit will still remain on the books.  Peca had a lot of interest two summers ago which helped land him this deal but he’s also on waivers and unless he’s claimed and succeeds elsewhere, he’ll be looking at a reduced price tag next offseason.  Thompson took a pay cut to remain with Montreal in a depth role and as a faceoff specialist, he could land another deal like this one a year from now.  Cousins is coming off of a decent season in Arizona but was non-tendered which was likely because of his arbitration eligibility.  A similar showing from him could yield a similar fate but either way, he should be able to get a bit more than this next time around.  Hudon went from being a regular two years ago to a frequent scratch and this deal represents somewhat of a last chance opportunity.  A rebound could give him some leverage (especially with arbitration eligibility) but if he falters, a non-tender is likely.

Folin was also brought in along with Weise last season to serve in a depth role and he’ll potentially be in that capacity again this season.  He has been signing these types of contracts for a few years now and unless he becomes a full-timer on Montreal’s back end, that’s likely to continue.

Two years ago, Kinkaid looked like one of the top backups in the league that could be a candidate for a starting role somewhere.  Last season, he struggled mightily and then spent the last two months as a permanent healthy scratch which resulted in a smaller market this past summer.  A rebound from him would make him one of the better backups available at a time where quality backups are getting a fair bit more than his current deal.

Two Years Remaining

F Joel Armia ($2.6MM, UFA)
F Phillip Danault ($3.083MM, UFA)
F Brendan Gallagher ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($2.4MM, RFA)
D Jeff Petry ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Tomas Tatar ($4.8MM, UFA*)
F Jordan Weal ($1.4MM, UFA)

* – Vegas is retaining an additional $500K of Tatar’s salary

Tatar’s contract seemed reasonable in Detroit but after he went to Vegas, it looked like an overpayment.  That’s why the Golden Knights had to retain to move him and now after setting a career-high in points last season, it seems reasonable again.  If he can stay around the 50-point mark, he should be able to land a contract around what he’s currently getting.  The same can’t be said for Gallagher.  After two straight 30-goal campaigns, he’s now on one of the better value contracts in the league and will be looking at a big raise two years from now.  Danault is coming off of a career season that saw him garner a bit of Selke support as well.  Knowing the market for centers is often a high-demand and low-supply one, he looks poised to cash in.

Armia battled injuries last season which ultimately resulted in another short-term deal that takes him to free agency.  He has shown some flashes of his offensive upside going back to his time with Winnipeg but hasn’t put it together enough to land some long-term security.  Lehkonen has had several stretches where his offense has dried up which resulted in a bridge contract.  He’ll need to produce more consistently to reach that next tier in terms of money.  Weal struggled with Arizona and Philadelphia but made an immediate impact with Montreal which earned him a two-year deal shortly after the season ended, albeit at a pay cut.  Even if he doesn’t lock down a top-six role, producing with more consistency could have him in line for a raise in 2021.

Petry was asked to take on a bigger workload last season and he held his own.  While he’ll be 33 two summers from now, it’s quite possible that he can garner a bit of a raise and another fairly long-term contract.  Reilly lost his spot in the lineup down the stretch but still landed a decent pay bump in the summer.  To get anything more than that though, he’ll need to lock down a full-time spot on the back end.

Three Years Remaining

D Karl Alzner ($4.625MM, UFA)
D Ben Chiarot ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Brett Kulak ($1.85MM, UFA)

Alzner’s contract has not worked out well at all.  He spent most of last season in the minors and is back on waivers now where he appears to be destined to be back in the minors.  If Montreal runs into a situation where they need to free up cap room in the summer, he has to be considered as a buyout candidate.  Chiarot was brought in on what seems like a pricey deal on the surface but he’s coming off the best year of his career in Winnipeg.  He’ll need to hold down a top-four role to justify that price tag or to position himself for a similar one on his next deal.  Kulak cleared waivers early last year when with Calgary but quickly worked himself into a regular role in Montreal which earned him some security for the first time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Paul Byron ($3.4MM through 2022-23)
F Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
G Carey Price ($10.5MM through 2025-26)
D Shea Weber ($7.857MM through 2025-26)

Drouin has come up in recent trade speculation following a rough finish to last season and a sluggish start in the postseason.  He has played like a quality top-six forward at times but has also struggled mightily at others.  The Canadiens would be selling low if they moved him now though.  Byron has been one of the better waiver claims around the league in recent years as he has established himself as a quality secondary scorer.  Maintaining his speed will go a long way towards ensuring he provides some sort of value over the length of his deal.

Weber’s contract is one of the back-diving ones that is now outlawed in the CBA and subject to cap recapture though that could be affecting Nashville down the road and not the Canadiens.  Weber is still logging number one minutes which makes the price tag reasonable but as he ages, the final few seasons could certainly be more troublesome.

Price’s contract remains the richest in league history after Sergei Bobrovsky checked in a little below that this summer.  He’s no doubt a franchise netminder but he has had injury issues in two of the last four seasons and at 32 already, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to handle a top workload throughout the life of the deal.

Buyouts

G Steve Mason ($1.367MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Gallagher
Worst Value: Alzner

Looking Ahead

The Canadiens are well-positioned when it comes to the cap for the next couple of seasons after failing to land an impact player in free agency over the summer.  In the short term, that will make them a team to watch for if teams need to move out salary at some point during the season.

Montreal appears to be positioning themselves for a big roster shakeup in the 2021 summer.  Kotkaniemi’s next deal will be sizable while several of their pending UFAs will be in line for raises as well and they’ll be hard-pressed to keep them all.  Clearly, they’re banking on some of their prospects emerging by that time but it certainly appears as if they’ll look a fair bit different two years from now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $80,718,669 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Henrik Borgstrom (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Borgstrom: $850K

Borgstrom’s first full professional season had some ups and downs.  While he was quite productive in the minors, it didn’t translate to much success in the NHL.  He’s still likely to have a somewhat limited role for the upcoming season and will have even less leverage than most RFAs coming off entry-level deals as he won’t be eligible for an offer sheet.  Unless he lights it up this season, a short-term contract will be likely for him.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Josh Brown ($675K, RFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($4MM, UFA)
F Jayce Hawryluk ($874K, RFA)
F Mike Hoffman ($5.188MM, UFA)
F Denis Malgin ($750K, RFA)
D Ian McCoshen ($700K, RFA)
G Samuel Montembeault ($709K, RFA)
D Mark Pysyk ($2.733MM, UFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($1.6MM, RFA)

Hoffman made a significant impact after being acquired from San Jose (which is technically true as he was a Shark for all of about two hours).  He led the team in goals with 36 and was an elite threat on the power play where he tallied 17 of those.  Those are elements that will excite a lot of teams if he gets to free agency where he could command a six-year deal or longer at more than $7MM per season.  Dadonov’s deal was a risky one given his lack of success in his first NHL stint but it has proven to be quite the bargain as he has picked up 135 points over the first two seasons.  As he’s more of a playmaker than a scorer, he shouldn’t land as rich of a deal as Hoffman will but he’s still looking at a significant raise on a long-term contract.  Hawryluk and Malgin both saw time in the minors last season but are waiver-eligible this time around which should help secure them a full-time spot.  Despite that, both should have limited roles which means that they should be looking at one-year deals at or near their qualifying offers next summer.

Pysyk was acquired in 2016 with the hopes that he could become a top-four defender.  He has held down that role at times but is better suited as a third-pairing option that can move up when injuries arise.  Between that and a general lack of offense, he shouldn’t be able to garner too much of a raise on the open market.  Weegar has carved out a regular role on the third pairing but while he’ll have arbitration eligibility next summer, he’ll also need a lot more production (or will need to lock down a top-four spot) to get a significant raise.  McCoshen and Brown will be battling for spot minutes and are waiver-eligible which means a trip to the minors isn’t likely.  However, they’ll need to take on a full-time spot in order to get anything notable beyond their qualifying offers.

Montembeault is currently slotted to be the backup but it’s possible that the team looks to the waiver wire before the preseason is over as well.  If he’s with the big club, he should be able to surpass the $1MM mark a year from now but with who their new starter is, playing time will be limited.

Two Years Remaining

F Colton Sceviour ($1.2MM, UFA)

Sceviour was retained to provide some offense from the bottom six but injuries didn’t help his cause last season.  He’s likely to be no more than a depth player over the final two years so he won’t be looking at much of a raise in 2021.

Three Years Remaining

F Noel Acciari ($1.667MM, UFA)
F Aleksander Barkov ($5.9MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Vincent Trocheck ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($2.533MM, UFA)

Barkov has emerged as one of the top centers in the league and is making what a lot of second liners are starting to get.  Forget a small raise, it’s possible that with a higher cap in three years’ time, Barkov could be pushing to double his current price tag.  Trocheck is coming off an injury-riddled season but prior to that had established himself as a strong second line pivot.  If he continues his progression, there may very well be teams that want to take a run at making him a number one center which would have him in line for a significant pay increase as well.  Vatrano had a breakout year as a reliable secondary scorer but it was his first time scoring at that rate.  Maintaining that level of production would make him a lot more attractive on the open market where his price tag could jump past the $4MM mark.  Acciari was brought in to give them a stronger fourth line and while some teams are opting for cheaper depth options, a good showing with his new team would help his case towards another multi-year deal.  However, given what Barkov and Trocheck are going to cost, that deal may not come with Florida.

Stralman is another player who battled injuries a year ago although it didn’t stop him from getting one of the more surprising deals of the summer.  He’s being asked to stabilize the defense but even if he does that, it’s hard to see him getting close to that at the age of 36.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Sergei Bobrovsky ($10MM through 2025-26)
F Brett Connolly ($3.5MM through 2022-23)
D Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM through 2025-26)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM through 2022-23)
D Keith Yandle ($6.35MM through 2022-23)

Huberdeau hasn’t gotten the attention that Barkov has but he has blossomed into a quality top liner and is coming off a year where he blew past his previous career high in points by 23.  That makes it tough to peg his future value.  If he stays near the 90-point mark, something along the lines of Artemi Panarin’s contract could be possible.  But if he goes back to the 60-70 point range, that should put him more in the $7.5MM range.  Connolly had a strong year in Washington and got the long-term security he had been coveting.  He’ll hold a similar role with the Panthers this season with a chance to move up depending on what happens with Hoffman and Dadonov a year from now which would really affect his market value.

Ekblad’s deal was a record-breaker at the time (only to be broken this week) but he hasn’t quite lived up to it offensively just yet.  He’s still only 23 though and there’s still lots of time for him to improve.  Yandle remains one of the top offensive threats from the back end in the league although he will likely start to drop off at that end in the coming years.  If that happens, it could be a bit of an anchor deal in the final year.

Bobrovsky signed the biggest contract for a goalie on the open market in league history.  (Carey Price has a higher cap hit but signed before testing the market.)  He’s coming off an up-and-down season that saw him post a save percentage during the regular season that was basically just league average.  However, he was much better in the postseason and played a key role in their surprising upset over Tampa Bay.  However, he’s now 31 and has seven years on his deal so while he should provide them with a significant improvement over their goaltending the last couple of seasons, the last few years may not be particularly pretty.  But by then, their top goalie prospect in Spencer Knight should be NHL-ready.

Buyouts

G Scott Darling ($1.233MM in 2019-20, $2.333MM in 2020-21, $1.183MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Jason Demers ($562.5K through 2020-21)

Salary Cap Recapture

G Roberto Luongo ($1.094MM through 2021-22)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Barkov
Worst Value: Bobrovsky

Looking Ahead

The Panthers haven’t been known as a high-spending team but that’s going to change in a hurry as this level of spending is going to need to be maintained to keep this core intact for the long haul.  They’ll be hard-pressed to keep both Hoffman and Dadonov next summer while keeping Barkov and Trocheck three years from now will also be challenging.  Get used to seeing Florida near the top of the chart when it comes to spending around the league as they’re going to be there for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Hit: $77,229,543 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Taro Hirose (1 year, $925K)
D Filip Hronek (2 years, $714K)
F Michael Rasmussen (2 years, $894K)
F Filip Zadina (3 years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Hirose: $850K
Hronek: $182.5K
Rasmussen: $850K
Zadina: $850K

Rasmussen was a full-time player with Detroit last season but spent most of it on the wing and wasn’t eligible to play in the AHL.  He can now go to the minors and the team has suggested they’d like him to develop down the middle so there’s a chance he could shuttle back and forth.  That would take an early extension off the table  Zadina spent most of last year in the minors and could do so again but at the same time, as a winger with some scoring upside, he should get a longer look this year and it’s far too early to project his next deal.  Hirose made a positive impression in a stint late last season and should have a chance to lock down a full-time role.  If not, his next deal could possibly come in lower than this one if he took a lower NHL salary for more guaranteed money.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Andreas Athanasiou ($3MM, RFA)
F Tyler Bertuzzi ($1.4MM, RFA)
D Madison Bowey ($1MM, RFA)
D Trevor Daley ($3.167MM, UFA)
F Jacob de La Rose ($900K, RFA)
D Jonathan Ericsson ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Adam Erne ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Johan Franzen ($3.955MM, UFA)
F Mike Green ($5.375MM, UFA)
G Jimmy Howard ($4MM, UFA)
F Anthony Mantha ($3.3MM, RFA)

Potential Bonuses

Howard: $1.1MM

Detroit had really been hamstrung by the cap for a few years which forced their hand with bridge deals which means they’re in for some tougher sledding next summer.  Mantha has shown flashes of top-end offensive upside but hasn’t put it all together yet.  After two straight 48-point seasons, he’ll be in line for a decent raise already but that could jump well past the $6MM mark with a big 2019-20 season.  Athanasiou had his first 30-goal campaign last season which also has him in line for a notable increase already.  If he matches that this season, he’s also going to be in the $6MM or more range.  Bertuzzi’s first full NHL season was a strong one and with arbitration eligibility a year from now, he could very jump past the $3MM mark with a repeat performance.  Erne was brought in from Tampa Bay where he had a limited role but that could change with Detroit.  If he remains a supporting player though, his next salary shouldn’t be much higher than this one.  De la Rose had a couple of stints where he had to sit due to heart issues which is on the concerning side while his role when in the lineup was a fourth line penalty killer.  A small raise is about all he could hope for.  Franzen last played in 2014-15 and is battling concussion issues.  His career is over and if Detroit needs more cap space this season, he’ll go back on LTIR.

Green has had injury issues which will limit his market even with a full 2019-20 season.  Though he won’t be in a 35-plus situation yet, he’s someone that may have to go year-to-year as a result and he’ll be hard-pressed to beat the $5MM mark a year from now.  Ericsson has been a steady presence on the back end for the better part of a decade but he’s more of a role player now than an impact one.  He’ll be 36 next season so if there’s another deal coming, it could very well be half of this one if not less.  Daley is another one that has had injury issues lately and as he’ll be 36 next year, a one-year contract is all he’ll be able to get.  A drop in pay is likely for him as well.  Bowey should get more of a chance to play a regular role with Detroit.  Locking down a regular spot would go a long way towards boosting his arbitration case.

Howard is now 35 which allows for the bonuses in his deal as long as he signs for one year at a time.  He has repeatedly stated his desire to stick with the Red Wings for his career so as long as he is willing to play under this type of structure, he should be able to get another deal or two like this one.

Two Years Remaining

G Jonathan Bernier ($3MM, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Darren Helm ($3.85MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($3MM, UFA)
F Valtteri Filppula ($3MM, UFA)
F Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083MM, UFA)

Helm’s contract didn’t make much sense at the time it was signed and it hasn’t exactly looked better since then.  He is an effective checker but lacks the offensive ability to justify the higher price tag.  Two years from now, he’ll be staring down a sizable pay cut.  Filppula has been relatively steady the last several years which helped him earn a bit of security this summer with the multi-year deal.  That said, the expected continued downtick in bottom six salaries and the fact he’ll be 37 when his contract is up means that he probably won’t be able to command a similar salary on his next trip to the open market.  Glendening is a little expensive for a fourth liner although he has shown an ability to hold his own when moved up as well.  Between that and his faceoff prowess, he should be able to get a bit of a raise if he hits the open market.  Like Franzen, Zetterberg has effectively retired and will be put on LTIR if they need cap room.

Nemeth effectively will move into the spot vacated by the recently-retired Niklas Kronwall.  That could give him a shot at top-four minutes but as more of a stay-at-home defender, it’s hard to envision him getting much of a raise two years from now.

Bernier was brought in to give Detroit some stability between the pipes.  Howard’s deal was expiring a year ago and their prospects aren’t quite ready for NHL duty yet.  In making 35 appearances, the contract was reasonable last year even if the performance wasn’t great.  Unfortunately for Bernier, he’s quickly falling into a category where he’s not going to be considered as a potential starter which will limit his earnings upside down the road although he could still carve out another couple of years around this rate as a backup.

Three Years Remaining

D Danny DeKeyser ($5MM, UFA)
F Frans Nielsen ($5.25MM, UFA)

Nielsen was brought in to give Detroit a boost in their secondary scoring.  That hasn’t quite happened as he has yet to surpass 35 points over the last two seasons.  On the flip side, he does still log heavy minutes and take a lot of faceoffs so while his contract is certainly an overpayment, he is still playing an important role for them.  He’ll be 38 at the end of this deal so if he does play beyond that, it will be at a heavily-reduced rate.

DeKeyser has been quite the successful undrafted free agent signing as he has become a capable top-four defender.  Unfortunately, Detroit is paying him to be a bit more than that and the results haven’t been great while he has battled injury issues the last couple of seasons.  He’ll be 32 when he hits the market so a multi-year deal is probable although he’ll probably also be looking at a dip in pay unless his offensive game really takes off between now and then.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Justin Abdelkader ($4.25MM through 2022-23)
F Dylan Larkin ($6.1MM through 2022-23)

First, the good.  Larkin was the only player that Detroit was able to avoid the bridge deal with and the results were promising as he flirted with the point-per-game mark for the first time last season.  He also ranked ninth in the league in ATOI among forwards, checking in at just under 22 minutes a night.  That type of production at a rate that second liners have received on the open market in recent years is certainly a bargain.  Now, the not so good.  The five-year structure of Larkin’s contract means that he will hit the open market at the age of 26 in the prime of his career.  That should allow him to cash in with a max-term contract and his AAV could approach the $10MM mark the way the center market has gone lately combined with the expected increase in the Upper Limit between now and then.

As for Abdelkader, his long-term deal has not worked out at all.  He scored just six goals last season, the lowest of any full season in his career.  While he’s valuable as a physical forward, that price tag is much too high for someone who is effectively an energy player at this point of his career.

Buyouts

D Xavier Ouellet ($217K in 2019-20)
F Stephen Weiss ($1.67MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Larkin
Worst Value: Abdelkader

Looking Ahead

Detroit is in the middle of converting their roster from veterans to young players and in doing so, they sit comfortably under the cap without the aid of LTIR for the first time in a while.  However, that comfort will be short-lived with Mantha and Athanasiou both being in line for big raises next summer.  They shouldn’t get to the point where they’re forced to trade someone due to cap issues as they had to do with Riley Sheahan two years ago but don’t expect them to be operating well below the cap either.  That said, that’s still an improvement over the situation they’ve had in recent years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $82,559,524 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Rasmus Dahlin (two years, $925K)
F Casey Mittelstadt (one year, $925K)
F Tage Thompson (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Dahlin: $2.85MM
Mittelstadt: $850K
Thompson: $425K

Mittelstadt burned the first year of his entry-level deal at the end of 2017-18 so his first full year was last season and there were some rocky moments along the way.  While he was able to hold down a regular role on the third line most nights, his offense was sporadic.  There is still plenty of upside but barring a breakout year offensively, a short-term contract should be in the cards a year from now.  Thompson, one of the key pieces in the Ryan O’Reilly trade, didn’t have a great first season with Buffalo.  He’ll be asked to play a bottom-six role once again which won’t help his negotiating leverage so he’ll also be looking at a bridge deal.

Dahlin, the top pick in 2018, had a strong rookie season and it’s believed that the best is yet to come.  While the post-ELC market for defensemen isn’t as robust as it has been for forwards in recent years, there’s a good chance that Dahlin could change that.  If he progresses as anticipated, he should surpass Aaron Ekblad’s $7.5MM AAV by a considerable margin.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Zach Bogosian ($5.143MM, UFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($1.6MM, UFA)
D Matt Hunwick ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Johan Larsson ($1.55MM, UFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.388MM, RFA)
D Casey Nelson ($812K, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($3.65MM, RFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($2MM, RFA)
D Marco Scandella ($4MM, UFA)
F Conor Sheary ($3MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Sobotka ($3.5MM, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($1.325MM, RFA)
F Jimmy Vesey ($2.275MM, UFA)

It’s pretty easy to see what GM Jason Botterill’s plan is here.  There are plenty of veterans coming off the books and they’ll keep the ones they want to and will spend on replacements for the rest.

Reinhart is the most notable of this bunch by a considerable margin.  He signed a bridge contract after not really taking much a step forward over his first few seasons.  However, he took a big step in that direction last season, reaching 65 points.  A repeat performance would push him into the $6.5MM or more range a year from now.  Rodrigues received his deal through salary arbitration and assuming he can crack the 30-point mark in 2019-20, he could be closer to $3MM next summer.

Among the pending UFAs, Sobotka had a tough year with the Sabres and will play a sparing role at most this season.  Barring a sudden return to form, he’ll be closer to the $1MM mark on his next deal.  Sheary held his own away from Pittsburgh and was back around his usual point total.  Players like that (middle class) have been squeezed out in free agency in recent years though so while it’s possible that he could earn himself a small raise, he could also be forced into a short-term lesser deal as well.  Vesey has been relatively consistent over his first three NHL seasons.  At times, he can hold his own in the top six and in others, he looks out of place.  I think a small raise is a possibility but nothing substantial.  Girgensons has been pretty consistent the last four years but that’s not necessarily a good thing.  He’s a capable checker but his offensive game has yet to emerge.  Instead of being a part of their long-term plans like they envisioned when they picked him in the first round, he’s someone that’s going to be struggling to get a multi-year deal a year from now.  Larsson looked like a player on the rise a couple years back but has basically been a depth piece so matching his current deal could be difficult.

Montour wound up having to take a bridge contract with Anaheim in part due to their salary cap situation at the time.  That means that he’ll be a good bargain this season but he’s in line for a big raise.  The Sabres clearly envision him as a key part of their future given that they parted with a first-rounder to get him and a deal in the $6MM range is likely.

Bogosian’s contract has been an ugly one for a while.  He has had issues staying healthy in recent years and his effectiveness has waned as well.   He should be able to secure another contract but it will be at a fraction of this one.  Scandella was a quality shutdown defender in Minnesota but has been more of a third pairing depth option with the Sabres.  Players like him have seen their role diminish in recent years so he’ll also be hard-pressed to get close to this price tag a year from now.  Nelson is a serviceable injury replacement and could hold down a seventh or eighth role to allow some prospects (such as Henri Jokiharju) to get some more AHL seasoning.  Players like that are basically signing for the league minimum now so a small dip in pay is certainly a possibility for him.  Hunwick has already been ruled out for the year and will be on LTIR while his playing future is in question.

Ullmark’s first full-time season in Buffalo didn’t go as well as anyone had hoped.  There were a few games where he stood out in a strong way but statistically speaking, he was a below-average backup.  That’s why he wound up with this one-year deal that will go a long way towards determining if he’s part of the long-term future or not.

Two Years Remaining

G Carter Hutton ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Jake McCabe ($2.85MM, UFA)

Johansson had a strong showing in the postseason with Boston which certainly boosted his market heading into free agency.  However, his injury history likely played a big role in him only being able to get a short-term deal.  If he can stay in the lineup, he’ll have a chance to beat this contract two years from now when he’ll still only be 30.

McCabe has also battled injury issues the last couple of years which hurt his negotiating leverage somewhat.  As a result, he wound up settling for what amounts to a second bridge deal.  McCabe has shown an ability to play on the second pairing in the past and if that carries over during this deal, he’ll be well-positioned to cash in on the open market.

Not surprisingly, Hutton wasn’t able to match his league-leading numbers from the year before when he was with St. Louis.  He got into a career-best 50 games but faded as the season went on.  He’ll be 35 two years from now which could have him looking at going year-to-year for the rest of his career.

Three Years Remaining

D Colin Miller ($3.875MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.4MM, UFA)

Ristolainen has been involved in trade speculation for a while, especially after the recent acquisitions of Montour and Miller.  He has struggled at times in the number one role in Buffalo but as a quality offensive threat that can log big minutes, his contract is still quite reasonable but as of yet, there hasn’t been a good enough offer to get him.  Miller was a cap casualty in Vegas and now goes to Buffalo where he’s likely to slot in on their third pairing.  That’s great for the Sabres from a depth perspective but it won’t help his value for his next deal though lots can change before he’s eligible to sign his next contract.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Jack Eichel ($10MM through 2025-26)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Jeff Skinner ($9MM through 2026-27)

Many top draft picks have signed long-term, big-money contracts in recent years.  Eichel was among that group although his deal was a bit more puzzling at the time considering he hadn’t cracked the 60-point plateau.  Clearly, Botterill was expecting a big improvement and that he’d be able to become a legitimate top line center.  It took until his fourth year to do so but Eichel picked up his production to a front line level a year ago.  With the escalating price tag for top players, this deal shouldn’t wind up as a significant overpayment in the grand scheme of things but it’s not going to be classified as a bargain anytime soon either.

Skinner got off to a tremendous start last season and he wound up with his first career 40-goal season to show for it.  However, most of that production came in the first half of the season so there is certainly some risk here.  If he reverts back to his early-season form, this will be an okay contract but if that doesn’t happen, this could become a problem fairly quickly.  Okposo’s contract certainly has been a problem as he has produced like a third liner and there isn’t much optimism that he can have a big improvement.  The structure of the contract means that a buyout isn’t a great option either.

Buyouts

D Christian Ehrhoff ($857K through 2027-28, cap-exempt as a post-CBA compliance buyout)
F Cody Hodgson ($792K through 2022-23)
F Ville Leino ($1.222MM in 2019-20, cap-exempt as a post-CBA compliance buyout)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Montour
Worst Value: Okposo

Looking Ahead

Yes, there is short-term pain on the horizon (though Hunwick’s LTIR gives them some wiggle room) but there is light at the end of the tunnel.  With the number of expiring contracts on the books, Botterill will have the opportunity to pick and choose who he wants to keep and then reshape the roster from there with a pretty clean slate all things considered.  As far as their long-term cap situation goes, they’re in pretty good shape once they get through the upcoming season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $81,004,594 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Vince Dunn (one year, $723K)
F Robert Thomas (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Dunn: $57.5K
Thomas: $425K

Thomas wasn’t asked to take on a big workload in his rookie year but he still did relatively well offensively before tailing off in that regard a little bit in the playoffs.  He’s likely to be a fixture in their top six in the long term but may spend a good chunk of the upcoming season on the third line which would seemingly take an early extension off the table.

Dunn’s sophomore campaign fell under the radar somewhat but he certainly had an impressive year, particularly at the offensive end where he fell just shy of the team lead in several categories.  While his minutes have somewhat been sheltered thus far, he’s already looking at a notable second contract and if his usage grows this season, he could move into that higher-end tier in a hurry.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Sammy Blais ($850K, RFA)
D Jay Bouwmeester ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Joel Edmundson ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($900K, RFA)
D Alex Pietrangelo ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Brayden Schenn ($5.125MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses

Bouwmeester: $250K (based on regular season games played and playoff success)

I think Schenn is going to be a very interesting case for GM Doug Armstrong.  On the one hand, he’s a safe bet to reach 50-plus points (more when he’s really going) and as a center, that’s an important piece to have.  On the other hand, his role is eventually pegged to be filled by Thomas though that’s still probably a few years away.  With limited flexibility next summer (and a lot of players to re-sign), does Schenn get deemed a luxury that they can no longer afford?  His next deal should surpass the $7MM mark (and more if he rebounds to his 2017-18 numbers).  But it’s hard to let a top-six center in the prime of his career potentially walk for nothing.  They’ve moved a pending UFA pivot recently – will they do so again?  If they’re in the middle of the pack near the trade deadline, they just might.

Fabbri has had huge issues staying healthy and last year was no exception which resulted in him taking a small pay cut this offseason over getting a raise with a qualifying offer.  That’s telling as it means that if the asking price was much higher, he likely would have been non-tendered.  If he can’t stay healthy and lock down a regular spot in the lineup, that will probably the outcome a year from now.  Blais split last season between the NHL and AHL but suited up quite a bit in the postseason and could lock down a regular spot this season.  Even so, it will be in a fourth line role which means his next contract shouldn’t be too much higher than this one.

Pietrangelo is poised to get a significant raise next summer.  While he’s not in that top echelon around the $11MM mark, he’s still a quality top pairing blueliner and as he turns 30 next month, a max-term contract isn’t out of the question either.  Something in the $9MM range is a legitimate possibility.  Bouwmeester took a cut in pay to stick around after having a strong second half last season.  He’s going to be going year-to-year at this stage of his career and given that he’s going to fill more of a supporting role than a core one, it’s hard to imagine him getting more a year from now.  Edmundson is coming off a tough season that saw him scratched at times.  Depending on what happens with their other UFAs and Dunn’s contract, he could wind up having to move on.  If he can get back to being a 20-plus minute player, something around $4.5MM will be a realistic target for his next deal.

Two Years Remaining

G Jake Allen ($4.35MM, UFA)
G Jordan Binnington ($4.4MM, UFA)
F Ivan Barbashev ($1.475MM, RFA)
F Tyler Bozak ($5MM, UFA)
D Carl Gunnarsson ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Jaden Schwartz ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Alex Steen ($5.75MM, UFA)

Steen’s deal was a good one for a time when he was a strong two-way presence on their top line.  However, his usefulness and role have diminished to the point where some have wondered if he’d be bought out.  He has a full no-trade clause which could complicate things if the Blues tried to trade him with some salary retention.  Schwartz has been hit or miss during this contract.  At times, he has played quite well (he averaged close to a point per game in 2017-18) but has also struggled at others and has had injury concerns throughout his career.  He’s a capable top-six winger when healthy and his ability to stay in the lineup will go a long way towards dictating his next deal.  Bozak didn’t light the lamp in his first year in St. Louis but acquitted himself relatively well.  He’ll continue to serve as quality depth down the middle though if Schenn re-signs for next season, Bozak could become a corresponding cap casualty.  Sanford spent most of the season with the Blues which earned him a decent raise but he’ll need to move up the depth chart if he wants another contract two years from now.  Curiously, Barbashev wound up getting less than Sanford despite playing a bigger role last season.  It’s possible that he’ll see some third line time before this deal is up which should have him in line for a raise of $1MM or so in 2021.

Gunnarsson has battled injuries of his own in recent years which resulted in him taking a sizable pay cut to stick around.  He’ll serve as a depth option which doesn’t bode well for him recovering some of that money in two years’ time.

Binnington’s rise from a minor leaguer to a catalyst in their Stanley Cup run has been well-chronicled.  However, given the fact that he still has a limited track record, he opted to take what amounts to a bridge contract.  It’s no coincidence that he checks in just ahead of Allen who has struggled at times in the number one role over the last couple of seasons.  It’s also no coincidence that the deals expire at the same time, giving Armstrong some time to further evaluate each netminder and assess which one, if either, is worth building around down the road.  A platoon situation is certainly a possibility which won’t help the bargaining power for either of them.

Three Years Remaining

D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.375MM, UFA)
D Colton Parayko ($5.5MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($4MM, UFA)

Perron’s return to St. Louis was a largely-successful one as he finished fourth on the team despite missing 24 games due to a concussion.  If they can get anywhere close to that type of production over the next few years, this will wind up being a significant bargain.

Parayko hasn’t really emerged into the top offensive threat that he has shown flashes of becoming but he is a core part of their back end.  As he’ll be hitting the open market at 29, a long-term contract of six years or more is quite likely and if his offensive game comes around over the next few years, he’ll be looking at a big raise as well.  Bortuzzo is another depth player and shouldn’t be looking at much of a raise three years from now as long as he stays in that slot on their depth chart.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM through 2022-23)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM through 2022-23)

Tarasenko has been consistently streaky throughout his career but continues to put up relatively consistent numbers overall, ranging from 66-75 points over the last five seasons.  That’s top line production so while it’s not a huge bargain, they’ve been getting a decent return for their commitment.  O’Reilly was their big offseason acquisition a year ago and he responded with a career year offensively while also earning the Selke and Conn Smythe trophies.  That contract looked to be on the expensive side not that long ago but that’s not the case now.  Sundqvist went from being a part-time role player to a key cog on the third line last season and rather than look at a short-term contract, they opted to lock him up to a longer-term deal and in doing so, upped the expectations for him offensively.  If he can hold down that third line role, they should get a decent return from the contract.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Perron
Worst Value: Steen

Looking Ahead

For the upcoming season, the Blues are going to be right up against the Upper Limit which is going to limit their ability to make much in the way of in-season acquisitions.  Things are only going to get tougher after that.

While they do have over $20MM in expiring contracts, they’ll be paying up big to keep Pietrangelo and Schenn around while Dunn’s second contract will be a fairly big one as well.  Those three alone will eat up most of the expired money which means there could be another big cap crunch for 2020-21.

The good news is that there aren’t a lot of long-term contracts on the books which will give Armstrong a little bit of flexibility in that sense when it comes to retooling his roster.  However, get used to them being right against that cap ceiling as they’re going to be there for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $66,049,164 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Sami Niku (one year, $775K)
F Jack Roslovic (one year, $894K)
F Kristian Vesalainen (three years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Niku: $60K
Roslovic: $212.5K

Roslovic has been a highly sought after trade commodity but thus far, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff hasn’t shown any interest in moving him.  However, the Jets haven’t given him a lot of ice time at the NHL level as he logged less than ten minutes a night last season despite being a regular.  That’s going to really hurt his bargaining power next summer so a one-year deal is likely in the offing.  Vesalainen split last season between KHL Jokerit and the minors with only five games with the Jets.  There should be more of an opportunity to get into NHL action this season and it’s worth noting that he can no longer trigger an assignment overseas.

Niku actually got into more game action with Winnipeg than AHL Manitoba last season though his impact with the Jets was relatively limited as he was deployed in a limited role.  With several departures on the back end though, he’ll be counted on to play a much bigger role this season which should bode well for his next contract.  Like Roslovic though, he won’t have enough of a track record to command a long-term pact.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Nathan Beaulieu ($1MM, UFA)
G Laurent Brossoit ($1.225MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Kulikov ($4.33MM, UFA)
D Josh Morrissey ($3.15MM, RFA)

Kulikov’s contract has been one that looked bad from the outset and has lived up to that initial interpretation.  They’ve been trying to move him for more than a year now to the point where it may have been a bit of a surprise that they didn’t buy him out this summer.  His next deal, if there is a next one, is going to be in the $1MM range.  Morrissey, on the other hand, will be looking at a big raise.  With Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, and Ben Chiarot all gone and no one really brought in to replace them, Morrissey is going to be in line for a much bigger role.  If his offensive play continues to improve, he can easily double his current AAV.  Beaulieu took a big pay cut to stay with Winnipeg after being non-tendered but the move made some sense.  He’ll have a shot to play a regular role on a good team which should give him an opportunity to rebuild some value.

Brossoit had quite the bounce-back season in 2018-19 as he went from being a minor leaguer to one of the better backups in the league.  However, given his limited track record (and desire to keep some funds freed up for his RFAs), Cheveldayoff only extended him for one year.  A repeat performance could bring Brossoit towards that higher tier of backups in the $2.5MM range which would probably price him out of Winnipeg.

Two Years Remaining

D Dustin Byfuglien ($7.6MM, UFA)
F Andrew Copp ($2.28MM, RFA)
F Adam Lowry ($2.916MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Perreault ($4.125MM, UFA)
D Neal Pionk ($3MM, RFA)

Perreault has been a nice depth option for the Jets, even if he is on the expensive side.  He can play all three forward positions and has produced when given opportunities in the top six.  However, he hasn’t spent a lot of time there and as a result, is coming off his lowest output since the lockout-shortened season.  It’s hard to imagine him getting a raise on his next deal although there should be considerable interest nonetheless.  Lowry has quietly become one of the more reliable centers at the faceoff dot while chipping in with plenty of hits and a reasonable amount of offense.  Players like this can still get paid a sizable sum and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get closer to $3.5MM on his next deal.  Copp received this deal through arbitration and narrowly misses out on being a UFA at its expiration by a week.  He has shuffled between the third and fourth line in his career but will need to spend more time on the third trio moving forward if he wants to be in line for a raise in his final trip through arbitration.

Byfuglien dealt with injury issues for the second year in a row which makes this contract a bit tougher to stomach.  He’s still capable of logging heavy minutes and contributing offensively and with the departures they’ve had, it’s quite possible they’ll lean on him even more than they have been.  If he can stay healthy, they can still get a decent return on this deal in 2019-20 but he will have a hard time getting this much when he’s 36 and on the open market.  Pionk is coming off an up-and-down season with the Rangers who included him as part of the Trouba trade.  He’ll be asked to lock down a top-four spot with the Jets and if he can do that, he’ll be well-positioned for a raise two years from now.

Three Years Remaining

None

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6MM through 2024-25)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.167MM through 2023-24)
F Bryan Little $5.292MM through 2023-24)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.125MM through 2023-24)
F Blake Wheeler ($8.25MM through 2023-24)

Wheeler has flown somewhat under the radar considering he’s fifth in the league in scoring over the past five seasons combined.  That earned him a jump in pay from his last deal and while there will be some concerns about his effectiveness at the end of the deal considering he’ll be 38 by then, he’ll still provide good value for a few more years.  Scheifele is now one of the better bargains in the league as a legitimate front line center that makes less than what some second liners are getting.  It will cost considerably more to sign him on his next deal.  Ehlers is coming off of a tough season that has had him in trade speculation at times.  After two straight seasons of 60 or more points, he should be given a chance to turn things around but if his offensive struggles continue, he could become a potential cap casualty.  Little has failed to reach 50 points for four straight seasons and Winnipeg has traded for rental upgrades at his spot on the second line for the last two years.  Between that and a no-move clause, he could become difficult to move if that trend continues.

Hellebuyck signed his deal following a career year back in 2017-18, one that saw him finish second in Vezina Trophy voting.  At the time, it looked like a potential bargain with the going rate for high-end starters only going up.  However, he wound up posting the highest GAA of his career (2.90) while his save percentage dipped by 11 points down to .913.  Instead of being one of the better starters in the league, he was on the lower end of that scale last season.  One down season isn’t going to change the outlook of his contract entirely but a repeat of that performance could have his deal trending towards being a negative for the Jets instead of a positive.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Kyle Connor
F Patrik Laine

Laine had a fantastic month of November where he took the league by storm and scored 18 goals in just a dozen games.  He looked to be well on his way to another 40-plus goal season and a huge second contract.  However, he only had a dozen goals the rest of the season which has complicated things.  Not many players have the goal-scoring ability that he does but given the unpredictability based on last season, a bridge contract may be the more palatable option for both sides.

The same can’t be said for Connor, whose second full NHL season was an improvement on his rookie year while he established himself as a capable top-line winger.  We took a closer look at his situation last month and his next deal is likely to be around $7MM based on some of the comparable contracts around the league.

Best Value: Scheifele
Worst Value: Kulikov

Looking Ahead

There’s a glass half full and a glass half empty side to Winnipeg’s cap situation.  On the plus side, even if both Laine and Connor sign long-term deals, the Jets are fairly well-positioned to absorb both contracts without too much concern.  On the negative side, it took them losing half their back end from last season in order to be able to do so.  Either way, they should be in okay shape for the upcoming season.

Looking beyond 2020, they’re not in too bad of shape.  Morrissey’s next deal is going to be big but Kulikov’s money will be coming off the books and can shift to him instead.  Most of their core is locked up long-term (and even more could be depending on the deals Connor and Laine sign) so while they won’t be big spenders on the open market any time soon, their days of having to cut contracts should be finished as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,165,476 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (two years, $925K)
F Rem Pitlick (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

The team has a few players with entry-level contracts who could make an immediate impact. Fabbro is the obvious one, especially after the team traded away P.K. Subban to New Jersey in a cap-saving move. Fabbro, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, finally signed in late March after three seasons at Boston University, playing in four regular season games, followed by six playoff games, combining for one goal and two points in amongst those 10 games. Now with Subban gone, the team has to hope that Fabbro will be ready to immediately take over the open top-four spot in the team’s defense. If not the team could have some issues at that spot. The team also inked Pitlick, the team’s third-rounder in 2016, after three years at the University of Minnesota. After tallying 47 goals in three years, the team hopes that Pitlick can make his mark on the team immediately.

Tolvanen, who dominated in the KHL at 18 years of age, failed to make the Predators team last year and spent most of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 58 games and will try to force his way into the Predators lineup this year with a good training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($1MM, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($750K, UFA)
F Daniel Carr ($700K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($675K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($675K, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The most well documented story is the Predators’ desire to lock up Josi to a long-term deal. The 29-year-old has proven to be an excellent defensive blueliner, but has also shown off quite a bit of offense, putting up 40 or more points for the past six seasons, including a 56-point performance last year. Josi has indicated that he wants to stay in Nashville, but evidently is waiting to see how the restricted free agent market pans out before signing any deal.

With significant cap issues coming up over the next few years, the Predators will have to make key decisions on what they want to do with Granlund and Smith. Nashville acquired Granlund at the trade deadline last year, swapping a younger Kevin Fiala for the 27-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Granlund, who scored 47 goals in his two previous seasons, stepped back last year, scoring just 16 goals last season and only one of those in 16 games with Nashville. If Granlund can return to his 25-goal ways, the Predators are likely to find a way to keep him in the future, but another poor season could end their relationship early. Smith is a different situation. He’s been a 20-goal scorer for five of his last six seasons, but will be 31 when he signs his next deal. The question is whether the team wants to lock him up when he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Most of the other players listed here are depth options, with a number of bottom-pairing forwards and defensemen.

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Steven Santini ($1.42MM, RFA)

The next two years could be the final two for Rinne, who will be 38 at that time. The veteran goaltender and Vezina Trophy winner put up another impressive season last year with a 30-19-4 record and a .918 save percentage. He will likely carry the load for the next two years, but Saros, the team’s goaltender of the future, will likely see more and more games before taking over as the Predators’ No. 1 goaltender in 2021-22. Saros played 31 games last season and while posting a 2.62 GAA, he did sport a .915 save percentage and should eventually get an extension.

Bonino was brought in from Pittsburgh to be the team’s third-string center and jumpstart the team’s bottom-six. He has done that, but also has found himself dropped down to the fourth line in the meantime and at $4.1MM, that’s a lot of money to be paying a bottom-line player. The only long-term hope, is that room is made so that Bonino, who posted 17 goals and 35 points last season, can return to his third-line role eventually.

Three Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)

The team has a solid bargain going with Forsberg making just $6MM per season. The Predators have gotten impressive production out of the winger, who posted 28 goals and 50 points last season (surprisingly his worst season of his career so far) and there is still hope that the 25-year-old may take his game up another notch and return to his 30-goal, 60-point mark that he has reached twice in his career or even take his game even further. However, the skilled winger remains an impressive player at a reasonable price for the next three years.

Ekholm may be the biggest bargain of the lot as the 29-year-old is one of the most underrated players in the league, showing off great defensive skill as well as posting 40 points for the first time in his career last year. Ekholm scored eight goals and 44 points last year and at under $4MM, the team has a cheap top-four player for quite a few years to come. Jarnkrok also gives the team a discounted player as the depth winger is a solid value at just $2MM per year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Kyle Turris ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Colton Sissons ($2.86MM through 2025-26)

The team had to finally pay out to get themselves the No. 2 center that they desired. They thought they did that a few years ago when the traded for Turris and extended him, but so far that match hasn’t been what the team hoped for. However, after moving out Subban, the team had enough cap room to replace him on the roster with their biggest need, which will be filled by Duchene, who should be the perfect top-six center the team has coveted for year. Duchene is coming off a 31-goal, 70-point season and if he can continue to post numbers like that should be a solid value as well at $8MM per year. Turris, on the other hand, now moves down to the third-line center position and the team has high hopes that the 30-year-old will rebound from a seven-goal, 23-point disappointment last year. However, after a solid showing at the World Championships this summer, the team hopes he can rebound.

It’s hard to believe that people talk about the Nashville defense constantly, but only one of them is signed longer than three years. However, Ellis signed his long-term deal, which looks like a bargain for the team. The 28-year-old broke 40 points for the first time in his career and with his exceptional defense, is going to be a key member of their blueline for a long time.

Johansen’s goals have been down since coming over from Columbus, but he continues to be a dominant passer and put up a career high in assists this year with 50 as well as 64 points, the second-best of his career. The 27-year-old should only get better. Arvidsson is also locked up long-term as the 26-year-old scored a career-high 34 goals last season and has proven to be a top-line winger and even looks like a bargain at $4.25MM. Sissons also was just recently signed to a long-term, seven-year contract at a low price as the team believes he should be part of their bottom-six for a long time.

 

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Ekholm
Worst Value: Turris

Looking Ahead

The Nashville Predators have been put together impressively, using their no-tax situation to their advantage as players have made it clear that they want to stay in Nashville. The team has a solid core, but after a disappointing playoffs, the team must prove that they can return to their old dominance, especially in a challenging division like the Central, and continue to be one of the top teams in the league. Adding another top-six center should help and if they can get the most out of their players, the Predators should be a dominant team for years, but if head coach Peter Laviolette can’t get some of his players to take the next step in their development, they may be in trouble too.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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