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Kevin Fiala’s Future Remains Uncertain

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The Minnesota Wild had a heck of a season, recording a franchise-high 113 points and securing home ice advantage in the first round. Unfortunately, it didn’t result in any postseason success, as they were eliminated in six games by the St. Louis Blues.

Despite the fact that they haven’t been together for very long, many were pointing to this season as a sort of “last dance” for the current Wild roster because of cap penalties coming next year. Minnesota will carry a $12.74MM cap charge in 2022-23, and a $14.74MM cap charge in the following two years because of the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. With a penalty that amounts to close to 16 percent of the cap ceiling, it’s extremely hard to build a competitive roster, at least when your goal is the Stanley Cup.

That means this offseason, general manager Bill Guerin will have to make some significant changes.

Most notable is the restricted free agent status of Kevin Fiala, who set a career high with 33 goals and 85 points this year after finding immediate chemistry with rookie Matt Boldy. Fiala’s platform year was an outstanding example of the dynamic five-on-five player many have always known he can be, as 67 of those points came at even-strength. Now, as he heads into the summer as an RFA for the final time, the Wild could very well have to move on from their Swiss star. Guerin was clear about that at his press conference today:

There’s uncertainty. We’d love to have Kevin back. I don’t know if it’s going to be possible. We have to dig into it a little bit, to see what we could possibly do. But there is uncertainty, that’s a good word for it. 

I’m uncertain. I am. Look, we can do anything–but at what cost?

Guerin explained that there have not yet been discussions with Fiala’s agent but there is no rush at the moment. As an arbitration-eligible RFA, the team still has control over the 25-year-old through the summer and doesn’t necessarily have to rush to get a new contract or a trade completed in the coming weeks.

Importantly, the Wild already have more than $75MM committed to next season with the buyout penalties, and other roster holes to address. That includes the goaltending position, where Cam Talbot is under contract, but Marc-Andre Fleury is a potential candidate for a short-term extension. They also will have several forward spots open even beyond Fiala, with Nicolas Deslauriers and Nick Bjugstad both scheduled for unrestricted free agency.

There are some internal candidates for those spots, with Marco Rossi leading the way after he returned from illness to have an excellent minor league season. The 20-year-old forward is expected to compete for a spot in training camp and likely has an inside track, given his relatively inexpensive entry-level contract. Rossi’s offensive upside could help to soften the blow of losing Fiala, and a trade could net the Wild other pieces to help build their club into a contender once again. It will be difficult, however, which makes this first-round loss likely sting all the more for fans in Minnesota.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking At A Potential Jesper Bratt Extension

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To any fan of the New Jersey Devils, Jesper Bratt is a no-doubt star, and one of the bright spots on a young, still-rebuilding team that has seen it’s share of struggles the past few seasons. However, to many other hockey fans around the league, Bratt may still be somewhat of an unknown. A surprise to some would be that the young Devils forward is a point-per-game player this season, leading his team in points, and second on his team in points-per-game to budding star Jack Hughes. On top of all that, Bratt has one more thing going for him: he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer.

Bratt is in the final year of a two-year, $5.5MM contract which carries a $2.75MM cap hit, and will turn 24 this summer. He’ll likely have one of two possible options this summer, either to sign a bridge deal that will carry him several years to unrestricted free agency, or cash in and take a long-term deal. Of course, the Devils would love to keep a young piece of their core around long-term, however the organization will have to find the right number to slide Bratt in, otherwise, as Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek suggested on their 32 Thoughts podcast earlier today, the Devils could also look to trade the forward for the right return. Although a trade or a shorter-term bridge deal of two or three years is possible, let’s take a look at what a longer-term contract extension with Bratt would look like.

Even in the midst of their rebuild, the Devils have shown they are not afraid to spend, signing Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes, and  Nico Hischier to contracts carrying AAVs of $9MM, $8MM, $7.25MM, respectively. Presumably, New Jersey would want to keep their homegrown star, however they will have to be cautious of the salary cap. Even if the organization isn’t in cap trouble just yet with these contracts, they will have to continue to ramp up spending as their new build takes shape.

In extending Bratt, the Devils would likely want to try and keep the AAV under that of team captain Nico Hischier at $7.25MM. That number may seem as a bit of a reach for Bratt, however it might not be that far-fetched. That said, let’s look at a few recent RFA extensions for comparison: Anthony Beauvillier, William Nylander, and Nick Suzuki.

Anthony Beauvillier, Three-Years, $12.45MM

Coming in with an AAV of $4.15MM, Beauvillier’s contract that he signed this offseason shows what a floor could look like for a Bratt contract. At the time of signing, Beauvillier was the same age and had the same number of years in the NHL as Bratt, with similar production for the majority of their careers.  The key difference between these players though, is Bratt’s extraordinary breakout season this year, one that Beauvillier did not enjoy. Over their first four years, Beauvillier managed 127 points in 286 career games, with Bratt putting up a reasonably better 130 points in 231 career games.

However, in Beauvillier’s same contract year, he had 11 goals and 21 assists in 65 regular season games, as well as five goals and eight assists in 19 playoff games. As impressive as that was for Beauvillier, Bratt currently stands at 22 goals and 43 assists in 64 regular season games in his contract year, with more to come. Bratt’s dominant contract season would seemingly vault him well over Beauvillier’s $4.15MM AAV.

William Nylander, Six-Years, $45MM

After holding out for nearly two months and almost forfeiting his 2018-19 season, William Nylander finally agreed to terms with the Toronto Maple Leafs on an extension in the Fall of 2018. Because of his hold-out, Nylander’s AAV on his contract does read different than expected, coming in at just under $10.3MM for the 2018-19 season, and just under $7MM thereafter (CapFriendly). For the purposes of a Bratt comparison, we’ll consider it divided evenly, at $7.5MM AAV.

A deal like Nylander’s would probably be the upper-ceiling of what Bratt could sign for, and would push him $250K over Hischier and his $7.25MM cap hit. When comparing their contract years, Bratt appears to have the edge over Nylander, who had 61 points in 82 games, a number which Bratt exceeded, and still has 13 games remaining. What Nylander had, which Bratt does not, was a similar season the year before. In 2016-17, Nylander had 61 points in 81 games, virtually the same season he would have in 2017-18, however in 2020-21, Bratt would have 30 points in 46 games. Although Bratt’s 2020-21 was shortened due to COVID creating a 56-game season, his point-per-game production was far less than it is this season.

Considering their similarities, it’s quite possible a Jesper Bratt extension could look a lot like William Nylander’s 2018 contract.

Nick Suzuki, Eight-Years, $63MM

One last player to look at is the Montreal Canadiens’ Nick Suzuki and his $7.875MM cap hit. This contract would most likely be one that would be very difficult for Bratt to secure, however some of the numbers are in his favor. Suzuki signed his contract having just turned 22-years-old and after only two seasons in the NHL, which makes him a bit different in comparison to Bratt. But, looking at the two years prior to the extension (or proposed extension for Bratt), Suzuki had 82 points in 127 games, while Bratt has 95 points in just 110 games, and still counting.

To Suzuki’s advantage, he’s had a significant amount of playoff experience in his two seasons, and has excelled when he’s there, notching 23 points in 32 career playoff games, playing a key role in Montreal’s trip to the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals. Although Suzuki is not a perfectly comparable player to Bratt, his contract can certainly have positive impacts on Bratt’s negotiating power going forward.

It’s tough to say what exactly Bratt’s contract will look like, with very few rumors thus far and no perfecty comparable player. If New Jersey would like to keep him long-term, it appears the door is open for that, but keeping the salaries of star players and of those throughout the rest of their organization under the salary cap long-term, fitting salaries nicely among the existing contracts, and working a contract out as compared to similar players, like Beauvillier, Nylander, and Suzuki, could be a challenge for both sides.

If a long-term extension is not in the cards for either side, the Devils still hold control, with Bratt as an RFA, and can try to work on a bridge deal, trade him, or perhaps even see what an offer-sheet, if one presents itself, looks like.

Looking Ahead To The Pittsburgh Penguins Offseason

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After a record-breaking 15-straight playoff appearances, and a 16th seemingly a given, the Pittsburgh Penguins will head into the 2022 offseason with some difficult questions regarding their core. Once contracts expire, the Penguins will sit with a $51.5MM cap hit for the offseason, leaving $31MM in space, what should feel like a comfortable number. This $51.5MM cap hit includes the $8.7MM cap hit of the still-elite Sidney Crosby, the $6MM cap hit of star Jake Guentzel, goaltender Tristan Jarry, as well as core forward pieces Jason Zucker, Jeff Carter, and Teddy Blueger and all but one of their defensemen.

The problem for Pittsburgh rests with who is a free agent. In addition to key forwards such as Bryan Rust, the newly-acquired Rickard Rakell, and breakout star Evan Rodrigues, the Penguins have Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang both hitting unrestricted free agency. Presently, there doesn’t appear to be much concern that Malkin or Letang want to leave Pittsburgh, or that Pittsburgh doesn’t intend to re-sign them. However, Malkin and Letang are still high-caliber assets despite their ages (Letang will be 35 to start next season, and Malkin will be 36), and will be able to still command a fairly significant salary. Malkin currently holds a $9.5MM cap hit, while Letang has a $7.25MM cap hit.

If they were to re-sign for the same cap hits, that would cost the Penguins $16.75MM in cap space, leaving them with just over $14MM. Even if both take discounts to stay in Pittsburgh, the pair will still command a significant salary between the two of them. Due a significant raise is forward and pending UFA Bryan Rust, who has 56 points in 48 games for the Penguins this season, and 154 points in 159 games since a breakout 2019-20 season.

Rust, who is coming off of a four-year, $14MM contract he signed prior to 2018-19, which carries a $3.5MM cap hit, would likely have to sign somewhere between Zucker’s $5.5MM cap hit and Gunetzel’s $6MM cap hit. Recent UFA contracts like Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, and Kevin Hayes could realistically push Rust above that $6MM number on the open market, however COVID-related issues such as the flat-cap might push Rust into a comparable group of players like Zach Hyman and Jaden Schwartz. As compared to Nelson, Lee, Hayes, Hyman, and Schwartz, Rust should slot comfortably in the $5.5-6MM range.

Speculating on Malkin and Letang, if the Penguins can re-sign them on slightly discounted cap hits, perhaps at $8.5MM and $6MM respectively, they would be left with $16.5MM in cap space this offseason, and if they can sign Rust at $5.75MM, evenly between Zucker and Guentzel, they would then have $10.75MM leftover.

Rakell is coming off of a six-year, $22.8MM contract which saw an annual salary of $3.8MM. Despite a consistent downward trend since a career best 69 points in 77 games in 2017-18, he could still expect a modest raise from his previous salary, especially if he continues to play as well as he has for the Penguins so far, with five points in seven games since the trade. A comparable contract could be the four-year, $17MM contract Tyler Toffoli signed with the Montreal Canadiens last summer before his subsequent trade to the Calgary Flames (a $4.25MM cap hit).

With all of these proposed numbers, the Penguins would then have $6.5MM left. Problems begin, however, with Evan Rodrigues, who is a pending UFA coming off a breakout career year. It’s tough to speculate on what Rodrigues’ next contract would look like, as the 28-year-old forward has 17 goals and 23 assists for 40 points in 70 games this season, his previous best being 29 points in 74 games in 2018-19. In addition to Rodrigues, the Penguins would need to re-sign backup goaltender Casey DeSmith, who has done well in his role and could expect a raise from his $1.25MM cap hit this season.

There is also the matter of pending RFA forward Kasperi Kapanen, who is coming off of a three-year, $9.6MM contract carrying a cap hit of $3.2MM. Although Kapanen has arguably not lived up to expectations, his 30 points in 68 games this season should be enough to command at least a similar cap hit going into next season. In an effort to alleviate some cap-issues, Pittsburgh could potentially choose to let Kapanen go.

Lastly, Pittsburgh will have to round out its roster, but is currently seeing forward Danton Heinen hitting RFA status and veteran forward Brian Boyle becoming a UFA. Pittsburgh holds Heinen’s rights as an RFA and could re-sign him to a similar cap hit as his current $1MM, and while Boyle could return on the same one-year, $750K contract he signed last offseason, the 37-year-old could choose retirement too.

One option for Pittsburgh to solve some of the cap crunch could be a possible trade of Zucker. The 30-year-old forward has seen his production drop off a bit in recent years and has faced several injuries in that time. With only one more year at $5.5MM, Zucker may not be difficult to move, but the Penguins will likely have to give up an asset to do so.

After looking at this Penguins’ offseason more in-depth, it’s not out of this world to think that the organization could bring back the same roster it has now, as long as the front office is able to do a good job of keeping salaries in-line with comparable players, and especially if they can work out somewhat lighter cap hits with Malkin and Letang. Further, letting go of Kapanen or trading Zucker and his $5.5MM cap hit could go a long way to solving some of their cap concerns. While the Penguins do have cap concerns, their problems are far from unsolvable, but to maintain a comfortable cap situation, some difficult conversations may have to come first.

Minnesota Wild Extend Jordan Greenway

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1:10pm: Greenway’s extension is now official, and it’s a three-year deal at an even $9MM total. The deal keeps him under contract through the 2024-25 season, buying out one year of unrestricted free agency. PuckPedia adds that it includes an eight-team no-trade clause in the final year.

11:15am: The Minnesota Wild are on fire, winning eight of their last nine games including a 4-3 victory over the New York Islanders last night. Those good vibes are set to continue for one pending RFA, as Michael Russo of The Athletic has heard rumblings that the team is closing in on an extension with Jordan Greenway. The scribe posits that it would come in around the same $3.1MM cap hit that Marcus Foligno earned last January.

Greenway, 24, has just four goals and 13 points in 33 games this season but–as Russo points out–is a part of one of the best defensive lines in the NHL, when deployed alongside Joel Eriksson Ek and Foligno. That line has yet to allow a goal against at 5-on-5, certainly providing good value to the Wild despite Greenway’s relatively pedestrian offensive numbers.

In fact, after posting 32 points in 56 games last season, it seemed like his offensive game was set to really take off in 2021-22. It hasn’t, but the 6’6″ forward has increased his physicality even more and is contributing to the penalty kill. An extension, if it does come down the pipe, could potentially buy out both of Greenway’s remaining arbitration years, as he could become an unrestricted free agent in the 2024 offseason. If it buys out some of those UFA years as well, a $3MM cap hit would certainly be a bargain for a capable middle-six player that can provide value in several different ways.

The interesting part of Greenway’s development, of course, is that he’s no longer really needed to be a top-six player. The Wild have even younger players like Marco Rossi and Matt Boldy that are going to take up those spots, the latter already playing a big role in his short NHL career. According to Russo, Boldy has been told he’s going to stay with the Wild for the foreseeable future after recording nine points in nine games so far.

That ten-game entry-level contract threshold that many prospects deal with is not applicable to the 20-year-old Boldy, who is already in the second year of his ELC after signing last spring.

Roster Notes: Lehkonen, Korpisalo, Maple Leafs

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As the Montreal Canadiens continue to falter in 2021-22, now last in the Eastern Conference and leading the league in goals allowed, a fire sale seems imminent for the franchise. As pundits across North America discuss who could be moving on from the Habs, a story has emerged from TVA’s Renaud Lavoie about one potential candidate who was nearly moved last season. Lavoie reported on their air on Saturday that the Canadiens and St. Louis Blues had a deal in place for forward Artturi Lehkonen at the deadline, which would have seen Sammy Blais go the other way. However, a condition of the deal was an extension for Lehkonen, then an impending restricted free agent, and the restricted free agent refused to agree to a new contract with the Blues, nixing the trade. The 26-year-old ended up re-signing for just one year with Montreal this summer and will be an RFA once more this off-season. However, it seems more and more unlikely that he will be negotiating with the Habs once again, as Lehkonen’s scoring is up from last season, making him an attractive trade piece for the Canadiens. Although Blais is now a member of the New York Rangers, the Blues could still be a suitor for Lehkonen with a different offer if they can make the cap implications work. The forward could be seen as a rental or as a long-term investment which should provide a deep pool of potential trade partners for the new front office administration in Montreal.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets could be forced to make a significant roster move later this season, but hopefully it does not come to that. The Finnish government released a list of names this week that included professional athletes who had not completed their required military service. All male citizens of Finland are conscripted to serve a certain number of days – 165, 255 or 347 days depending on the assignment – of military service and must meet this requirement between the ages of 18 and 28. Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo turns 28 this spring and has yet to complete any of his required service. Korpisalo tells The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline that he regrets putting it off, but he has had his in-season obligations every year since he was 18 and never wanted to disrupt his off-season training schedule in the summers. The Finnish government stated that those athletes who had not yet met this civic duty would be enlisted to begin service on April 11, 2022. Well, Columbus’ regular season does not end until April 29 and the team currently sits just one spot outside of playoff position as well. Korpisalo’s response to the possibility of missing time because of conscription: “If they want to come get me, come get me. I’m not leaving during my season.” Hopefully it doesn’t reach that point for Korpisalo and the Jackets, but it does seem like the goaltender at least plans to serve his time this summer. He has little choice as the Finnish government will not renew his passport if he does not complete his required service before turning 29, making it impossible for him to travel to North America let alone play in the NHL. This is especially concerning for Korpisalo this summer, when he will be an unrestricted free agent. While the veteran keeper expects that a “special arrangement” will be made that allows him to complete his current season, serve his time in the off-season, and be ready for next season, wherever that may be, the last-minute nature of the situation could still prove problematic. This likely isn’t the last we have heard about Korpisalo’s military requirements and its impact on his playing career.
  • Ilya Mikheyev appears to be getting closer to a return to the Toronto Maple Leafs lineup. The Hockey News’ David Alter reports that both Mikheyev and defenseman Travis Dermott will be evaluated on Tuesday for a potential return against the Edmonton Oilers. Getting the skilled forward back from Long-Term Injured Reserve will be a nice boost for the Leafs, but it of course raises questions as well. Toronto is currently $4.9MM over the salary cap, but this is permissible given the LTIR usage afforded by Mikheyev and Mitch Marner. However, once Marner is healthy as well, a roster crunch will set in for the Leafs if no more extended injuries have arisen. Even if no one is on injured reserve at the time and the likes of Alex Steeves and Kyle Clifford have likely been bumped from the roster to accommodate the additions up front of Mikheyev and Marner, the team will still be over the salary cap. If the Leafs want to carry the full 23 skaters, they will need to save room for at least a minimum $750K contract too. This could result in a notable player being traded or waived in order to become cap compliant. For a number of bottom-six forwards, the return of Mikheyev is a warning and they have until Marner returns to prove that they belong on the team or else could be the one forced out of town.

Ottawa Senators Sign Brady Tkachuk

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The Ottawa Senators held strong in their ask of a long-term contract for Brady Tkachuk, and it appears as though it has paid off. Ottawa has signed their prized RFA to a seven-year, $57.5MM contract. That makes Tkachuk the highest-paid player on the Senators, just eclipsing the $8MM cap hit that Thomas Chabot carries. David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports that the deal includes a full no-movement clause in the final three years. The full breakdown is as follows:

  • 2021-22: $4.0MM salary
  • 2022-23: $6.5MM salary
  • 2023-24: $10.5MM salary
  • 2024-25: $10.5MM salary
  • 2025-26: $10.5MM salary
  • 2026-27: $8.5MM salary
  • 2027-28: $7.0MM salary

Senators GM Pierre Dorion released a statement:

This is an exciting day for the Ottawa Senators. Brady possesses a very dynamic skill set and is a prototypical power forward in today’s NHL. He scores goals, he plays physical and exemplifies what it means to be a pro for all players in our organization.

As expected, the deal does not include any signing bonus money, a staple of Dorion’s negotiations. Tkachuk is expected to be in the building tonight for the team when they take on the Toronto Maple Leafs, but will not play, according to Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff.

Compared to the short-term deals that could have taken Tkachuk to unrestricted free agency much quicker, this is a huge win for the Senators. They will pay their star forward a bit more than some of his contemporaries–Andrei Svechnikov signed an eight-year, $62MM deal ($7.75MM AAV)–but will not have to worry about another negotiation for quite some time.

Technically, because the season has already started, Tkachuk’s cap hit for the 2021-22 season will actually be slightly higher, coming in at $8,330,674 according to CapFriendly. That really doesn’t mean much for the Senators, who are nowhere near the cap ceiling. The hit will come down to $8,205,714 for the final six years of the deal, still making Tkachuk the most expensive player on the team.

There is no doubt that the 22-year-old forward is the heartbeat of the Senators, though it is important to remember that this is still a player that has never eclipsed 22 goals or 45 points in a single season. Ottawa very likely paid a premium in this deal because of their history of losing (trading) stars as they approached free agency, something they obviously wanted to avoid in this situation. The team is expecting big things from the young group they’ve assembled, and needed the leader back on the ice to push things in the right direction.

That essentially ends the RFA period for this season, with all of the major players signed. Quite a bit of money was handed out this offseason as things return to normal, even though there is no significant salary cap movement expected until 2025.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

New York Islanders Shopping Depth Players

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A roster crunch has been a long time coming for the New York Islanders. It began today with veterans Thomas Hickey and Richard Panik hitting waivers, but it isn’t over. Even if Hickey and Panik clear waivers and are reassigned to the AHL, the Islanders still have 25 players on the roster and that does not include unsigned RFA forward Kieffer Bellows or tryout defenseman Erik Gustafsson. With the deadline to have 23-man rosters set for the start of the season arriving on Monday evening, time is running out for New York to make some difficult calls.

Unsurprisingly, The Athletic’s Arthur Staple reports that GM Lou Lamoriello is “looking for landing spots” for the Islanders’ “extra guys.” The team already took a risk by exposing experienced blue liner Hickey, more attractive to opposing teams in the final year of his contract, and serviceable forward Panik, yet those were the easier of their decisions. In order to trim their roster to 23, including Bellows, another forward like Leo Komarov or Ross Johnston would also have to miss the final cut. Otherwise, the team may need to look at moving Bellows instead. If Gustafsson is making the team, that is one more roster spot that would need to open up, potentially making Sebastian Aho available.

Lamoriello knows that none of these players are likely to clear waivers. The problem could be that other teams know this as well. The Islanders could be hard pressed to find a fair deal when their potential trade partners know that the alternative could be to wait the team out and acquire the players for free. Time is running out; New York is on the clock.

 

Remaining RFAs Training Together As Season Approaches

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If you navigate to the restricted free agent page on CapFriendly, only five names remain unsigned for the upcoming season. Two of them are New York Islanders players–Anatoly Golyshev and Kieffer Bellows–who are both already in training camp even though the team has not officially announced new contracts. The other three, Elias Pettersson, Brady Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes, are having their own kind of training camp in Michigan. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that the three are now skating together as they continue to wait out their contract negotiations.

Pettersson joined Hughes there as the Vancouver Canucks deal directly with representative Pat Brisson on new deals for the young stars. As recently as Tuesday, the super-agent told Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV that he and the club were speaking every other day, working to get deals done as soon as possible. But it’s now a couple of days into camp and the two most important players on the Vancouver roster are not even in the country.

In Ottawa, things are moving forward without Tkachuk, the team’s best forward and likely their next captain. GM Pierre Dorion once again told reporters including Wayne Scanlan of Sportsnet that the negotiations were “productive and positive,” but the 22-year-old is now missing from camp in an all-important year for the Senators. The team is looking to turn the corner on their rebuild and Tkachuk is the player that needs to lead them there.

A week ago, Justin Bourne of Sportsnet wrote a column detailing his viewpoint on missing the start of training camp. He makes the case that the early part of the season is the most crucial, because of the trust it builds between the coaching staff and roster. While neither Vancouver nor Ottawa have rookie head coaches trying to get the respect of the room, they are both teams that are by no means guaranteed a playoff spot or even a competitive season. Any disruption to the start of the year could cascade throughout the entire schedule.

For now though, all the players can do is train on their own and wait for a resolution. Thomas Drance of The Athletic writes that it will have to be Pettersson that signs before Hughes, because of the latter’s status as a 10.2(c) RFA that cannot be signed to an offer sheet. If they signed them in the reverse, it would open a window for another team to swoop in and offer something to Pettersson that would be difficult to match under the Canucks’ current cap situation.

At this point, there are no more comparables to be signed, as these are the three pillars left standing. The only real pressure point coming now is the start of the regular season, certainly not something either side wants to wait for.

Latest On Kirill Kaprizov

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A few weeks ago, it seemed like things were progressing well in the contract talks between the Minnesota Wild and Kirill Kaprizov. A general structure of a five-year, $45MM contract had been tabled, and it appeared as though the high-scoring winger would be signed well before camp opens later this month. Now, without a deal announced, Wild fans are beginning to get nervous. Speaking with The Athletic’s Michael Russo, Minnesota GM Bill Guerin explained that the two sides still aren’t very far apart but that things haven’t progressed recently:

I will say this, we are at a point where we feel we’re being extremely fair. How far apart are we? Not very, but sometimes those can be the things that take a while. I mean, that’s the way I see it. You could ask Paul [Theofanous] or Kirill and they might say something very different.

Guerin continues to caution fans that this is normal with high-profile RFAs, as you can see from the ongoing negotiations around the league. Elias Pettersson, Brady Tkachuk, Rasmus Dahlin, and Quinn Hughes are all still unsigned, along with several other mid-tier free agents as well. Kaprizov’s situation is not necessarily unique from that perspective, though his work visa and travel status make it so that he’ll have to face a longer wait to join camp whenever he does officially sign.

The Wild will start their preseason schedule in 11 days, taking on the St. Louis Blues on Sept 25. Whether Kaprizov will even be in camp by then is unclear, given the stalemate that Russo suggests.

A $9MM average annual value, the terms reported previously, would tie Kaprizov with Jeff Skinner of the Buffalo Sabres for the 18th highest-paid forward in the league next season. That’s a massive commitment for a player that has just 55 regular season NHL games under his belt, but Kaprizov is also a relatively unique case because of his success in the KHL and internationally.

Artemi Panarin, for instance, who is oft used as the closest comparable to Kaprizov because of their similar path to the NHL, signed a two-year contract extension just 117 games into his own career. That deal carried just a $6MM average annual value, but also took Panarin right to unrestricted free agency where he then signed a seven-year, $81.5MM deal that made him one of the highest-paid players in the league. At the time of his extension with the Chicago Blackhawks, Panarin had 45 goals and 114 points in 117 regular season games, a 0.97 points-per-game rate. Kaprizov sat at 0.93 through his first NHL season and, like Panarin, took home the Calder Trophy as the league’s best rookie.

Whether Guerin cautions against it or not, Minnesota fans are certainly biting their nails waiting for the eventual decision to come down as the hopes for this season certainly rest on Kaprizov’s shoulders. The 24-year-old forward is arguably the most exciting player the franchise has ever known and is a key to their entire offensive structure.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Buffalo Sabres Limited By Salary Cap Floor

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The Buffalo Sabres will be over the NHL’s salary cap floor by the start of the season, that much is obvious. While CapFriendly currently has the club sitting $2.3MM below the $60.2MM benchmark, that is with a 22-man roster that does not include unsigned RFA defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. While the 2018 first overall pick is not quite yet proven himself worthy of the considerable long-term deals signed by other top defenseman this off-season, he will surely make more than $2.3MM AAV on his next contract.

Yet, that does not end the Sabres’ battle with the cap floor. Just because they begin the season over the floor, does not mean that they will remain as such all season – or at least not if they wish to have flexibility with their transactions. Buffalo is again expected to be among the NHL’s worst teams this season and will be open to selling current members of the roster. Of course, Jack Eichel is the biggest name who could be available. However, at $10MM AAV it has been brought up numerous times that an Eichel trade is not as easy as it may seem. A team may offer a plethora of top picks, prospects, and entry-level players, but the Sabres would not be able to make that deal alone, as it would leave the team well below the salary cap floor regardless of Dahlin’s contract. Buffalo would have to acquire a nearly equal amount of salary back in the deal or else be prepared to quickly turn and add that salary in another deal. As a rebuilding team, the Sabres also won’t eager to add high-priced veterans who serve little purpose to a team with no title hopes. It makes an already difficult situation with Eichel all that much more tricky.

Even if Eichel begins the season with Buffalo, which seems increasingly likely, and even plays out the year with the team, the cap floor will still come into play. As the trade deadline approaches, the Sabres want to be in position to take full advantage of their valuable trade assets. The team has four forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies who are impending UFA’s and whose expiring contracts would be worth far more to another team. Colin Miller ($3.875MM), Will Butcher ($2.823MM), Cody Eakin ($2.25MM) and Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.05MM) stand out as potentially popular trade candidates at the deadline. Depending on Dahlin’s contract, could they move Hinostroza or maybe even Eakin or Butcher without going below the floor? Probably. But Miller? Or multiple moves? Likely not. The deadline is also not a place that is likely to offer even salary swaps.

If GM Kevyn Adams and the Sabres want to enter the 2021-22 season with the confidence that they can make any move they want without limitation, they need to find a way to sensibly add salary to the roster. For a rebuilding team, it may be difficult to think about adding salary to a team that won’t contend, but it would be a short-term sacrifice to ensure their long-term plans are not affected. The team could explore the trade market for a veteran or two that can help to develop the young roster or perhaps a young, but overpaid reclamation project. Or maybe they could entertain adding a legitimate starting goalie. They could also explore the free agent market which, even late in the summer, still has some attractive names available. With the Sabres pegged to give roster spots to minimum-salary fourth-liners like Drake Caggiula and John Hayden, it might make more sense to give those slots and more importantly more salary to a high-upside project like Ryan Donato, Alex Galchenyuk, or Nikita Gusev or a veteran leader like Tyler Bozak, James Neal, or Jason Demers. 

The Sabres have plenty of options to solve their salary cap floor conundrum beyond just re-signing Dahlin. However, those options could disappear if they don’t act quickly, and with it their transactional flexibility this season.

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