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January Calder Trophy Watch: Forwards

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The middle of the season is a common time for awards check-ins in the NHL, and for good reason. Enough sample size is under our belts to cross off some early-season hot and cold streaks, and it’s given some time for players to grow into impact roles for new teams.

That’s especially true with the Calder Trophy, tracking the best rookie in the league. Young players are especially susceptible to streakiness, for better or for worse. Many players’ seasons have evened out somewhat, and it’s as good a time as any to take a look at where things stand for a handful of top Calder Trophy candidates, this time at the forward position.

Forwards

Matthew Beniers, Seattle Kraken

Beniers stands as the clear front-runner for the Calder in most circles, and for good reason. He leads all rookies in goals (17) and points (36), and is playing serious minutes at 17:05 per game. He’s one point behind Andre Burakovsky for the Kraken lead in scoring, and he’s been a crucial part of Seattle’s improvement from basement dweller to playoff contender in 2022-23.

The 2021 second-overall pick was a “safe floor, unsure ceiling” type of player when he was drafted. With this kind of production so early in his career, Seattle can be optimistic that Beniers will hit his first-line center ceiling as his defense improves. He’s a poor 43.7% in the faceoff dot, but that’s been a problem for the entire Kraken squad, as they don’t have a single player over 50%.

Cole Perfetti, Winnipeg Jets

Along with the rest of the Jets, Perfetti is thriving offensively under head coach Rick Bowness. He had a solid seven points in 18 NHL games last season, maintaining his rookie status, but this season leads rookies with 20 assists.

While he has thrived playing with some of Winnipeg’s top talent, Perfetti’s point production is impressive in its own right. Very little of his scoring has come on the power play, he has just four points there. He’s sixth on the Jets in scoring, and while he isn’t receiving top minutes quite yet, nearly 15 minutes a night is still fine for a player his age. Look for his goal-scoring to improve throughout the season, too; he’s shooting at just 8.2%.

Mason McTavish, Anaheim Ducks

After a 2022 World Juniors for the ages, McTavish has transitioned well to the NHL on a struggling team. Anaheim’s systems have been a mess all season, but McTavish has still managed 27 points in 45 games and is drawing some tough matchups in the top six.

Used on and off at the center position, McTavish is scoring without much support. He’s third on the team in points and his -14 rating is actually one of the better ones on the team. Selected immediately after Beniers in 2021, it’s looking like an incredibly strong top-five from that class.

On the cusp: Matias Maccelli and Dylan Guenther (ARI), Kent Johnson (CBJ), Jack Quinn and John-Jason Peterka (BUF), Wyatt Johnston (DAL), Juuso Parssinen (NSH), Noah Cates (PHI)

Loan Roundup: 01/06/22

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After Team Canada put gold medals around their neck last night to conclude the 2023 World Junior Championship, a variety of prospects under NHL contract were loaned back to their minor or junior teams today. We’ll keep a running list of those transactions right here.

All transactions are provided by CapFriendly.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets returned defenseman Stanislav Svozil to the WHL’s Regina Pats. Drafted 69th overall in 2021, Svozil had an incredible tournament with eight points in seven games for Czechia, winning a silver medal — the country’s first medal since 2005. Quickly looking like a draft steal, Svozil has 37 points in just 28 games, and he’ll return to playing with presumptive 2023 first-overall pick Connor Bedard.
  • Also from Columbus, 2022 sixth-overall selection David Jiricek is returning to the Cleveland Monsters, Columbus’ AHL affiliate. Jiricek also helped dominate from the Czech blueline, recording seven points and a staggering +10 rating in seven games. He played his first two NHL games before the tournament and has an impressive 20 points in just 19 games with the Monsters.
  • The Dallas Stars returned dynamic Canadian forward Logan Stankoven to the WHL’s Kamloops Blazers. Stankoven, who has a decent shot at making the team out of training camp in 2023-24, had three goals and 11 points in seven games with the Canadians. He was a second-round pick of the Stars in 2021, another budding draft steal.
  • Gritty forward Reid Schaefer, selected with the last pick of the first round in 2022 by the Edmonton Oilers, is returning to the WHL-leading Seattle Thunderbirds. Schaefer played at the bottom of the Canadian lineup and managed one assist in seven contests. He’s fourth on Seattle in goals with 15 in just 22 games.
  • Nashville Predators right-shot defense prospect Jack Matier was loaned back to the OHL’s Ottawa 67’s. The 124th overall selection in 2021 is amidst a breakout season in Ottawa, recording 26 points and a +24 rating through 26 games. He had one assist at the World Juniors.
  • The Vegas Golden Knights returned Czech forward Jakub Brabenec to the QMJHL’s Sherbrooke Phoenix. Drafted 102nd overall in 2021, Brabenec was just dealt to the Phoenix today from the Charlottetown Islanders. His scoring had taken somewhat of a dip before the trade with 25 points in 28 games, but a strong World Juniors performance should instill some confidence.
  • Vegas also sent forward Zach Dean to the QMJHL’s Gatineau Olympiques. Taken 30th overall in 2021, Dean has 35 points in 27 games with Gatineau and recorded a goal and two assists for Canada at the tournament.

Snapshots: Austria, Harkins, Kirkland

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Despite scoring twice with the goaltender out, Austria came up short in the relegation series at the World Juniors and will be dropped out of the next tournament. Norway will take their place next year, with Latvia (the other team in the relegation round) staying put. Austria was playing with house money already after finishing last in the previous two tournaments. There was no relegation in those years, meaning they got extra chances in the top tournament.

Norway won gold at the Division I level after going a perfect 5-0 against Denmark, Slovenia, France, Hungary, and Kazakhstan. Their group is incredibly young and will get the chance to bring back nearly the entire roster for next year, meaning they should be competitive at least. Only three of their skaters (and one goaltender) are 19.

  • After clearing waivers yesterday, the Winnipeg Jets have sent Jansen Harkins to the minor leagues as expected. The depth forward will get a chance to play big minutes again, as he re-joins the Manitoba Moose. In six games to start the year with Manitoba, Harkins had five goals and nine points.
  • The Anaheim Ducks have recalled Justin Kirkland once again, after sending him down just yesterday. The 26-year-old forward made his NHL debut this season and has appeared in five games so far, failing to register a point.

Snapshots: Armia, Lafreniere, Nemec

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The Montreal Canadiens will make Joel Armia a healthy scratch tonight, sitting him along with Johnathan Kovacevic in favor of Anthony Richard and David Savard. Armia is in the second season of a four-year, $13.6MM contract he signed in 2021 after the Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup Final. Unfortunately, the five goals he scored during that run are exactly five more than he has this season. Armia hasn’t scored yet in 26 games and has just three assists, following a six-goal, 14-point 2021-22 campaign.

It’s understandable for him to be out of the lineup with that kind of production, but it will cause some speculation about his future in Montreal. The 29-year-old Finn was once an incredibly valuable, versatile player that could move up and down the lineup. Now it looks like his NHL career might be coming to an abrupt end.

  • Alexis Lafreniere entered the rumor mill when the New York Rangers decided to make him a healthy scratch recently, but The Athletic’s staff writes that the team has no intention of trading him at this point. The 21-year-old first-overall pick has struggled to find any level of consistency in the NHL, though his supporters will point to an even-strength scoring rate that is encouraging. One thing is clear: if he doesn’t miraculously find another level in the second half, he won’t be getting the massive second contract that many top picks earn. Lafreniere is scheduled to become a restricted free agent without arbitration rights, meaning he could be forced to accept a qualifying offer under $900K for next season, should the Rangers play hardball.
  • After Slovakia was eliminated from the World Juniors by a Connor Bedard overtime goal, captain Simon Nemec has been assigned back to the Utica Comets of the AHL where he’ll continue to play this season. The young defenseman logged huge minutes for his country at the tournament, racking up five points in five games while barely missing out on a chance to play for a medal. When Nemec was drafted, he committed immediately to playing in North America if the New Jersey Devils wanted him to, even if that meant spending the whole year in the minors. For Utica he has looked right at home, recording 11 points in 24 games so far.

Canada Adds Owen Beck To 2023 World Juniors Roster

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Hockey Canada announced Sunday morning they have added Montreal Canadiens prospect Owen Beck to their roster for the remainder of the 2023 World Junior Championship. He replaces forward Colton Dach, who will miss the team’s playoff games with an injury suffered yesterday against Sweden.

Beck, the 33rd overall selection in the 2022 NHL Draft, was one of the last cuts from Canada’s original Selection Camp roster for the tournament announced in early December. He’s dominating on both sides of the puck in the OHL this season, potting 17 goals and 23 assists for 40 points in 30 games with the Mississauga Steelheads.

The Peterborough, Ontario-born Beck had an impressive training camp with the Canadiens, getting fans excited for a potential draft steal. Still 18 years old, this will be Beck’s debut for Canada’s national team at any level.

It’s the second time in recent memory that Canada has lost a Dach brother to injury. Kirby Dach, who was expected to be one of the most dominant players at the 2021 tournament, was injured in preliminary action and missed much of the following NHL season with Chicago.

His brother Colton remains a Blackhawks prospect after Kirby was traded to Montreal this summer, and he had two assists through four group-stage games for Canada. Hopefully, the captain of the WHL’s Kelowna Rockets can resume his final season of junior hockey soon.

Canada’s 3-1-0 record in the group stage got them a second-place finish in Group A. They begin their push for gold tomorrow with a quarterfinal game against Slovakia.

Atlantic Notes: DeBrincat, MacDonald, Kapanen

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Senators winger Alex DeBrincat has had a very strong month of December with 18 points in 13 games heading into today’s action.  When they acquired him at the draft, he was viewed as someone that they likely felt was a long-term piece of the puzzle.  However, Postmedia’s Ken Warren suggests a long-term agreement for the pending RFA might not be a slam dunk.  With the ownership situation not settled, do the Sens have a firm commitment that they’ll be able to spend right to the Upper Limit next season?  With the team struggling, do they want GM Pierre Dorion working out another long-term contract for a forward, one that would limit their flexibility?  A new deal for the 25-year-old probably pushes Ottawa into a situation where their top six forwards will account for more than 50% of the cap next season.  Would they be better off spending that money to upgrade the back end for a more well-rounded roster?

Accordingly, Warren wonders if there’s a scenario in which Ottawa trades DeBrincat at the trade deadline.  If they’re out of the mix and DeBrincat isn’t overly open to a long-term agreement, it’s possible that the smarter long-term play would be to move him.  It’d be a notable step back for the Senators at least in the short term but if they’re still out of the playoff picture in a couple of months, it’s one that might get considered if there’s no extension in place by then.

More from the Atlantic:

  • Lightning prospect Cameron MacDonald is on the move in the QMJHL as Saint John announced that they’ve moved the forward to Gatineau for a pair of draft picks. The 19-year-old was a fifth-round pick by Tampa Bay back in 2021 (160th overall) and is averaging more than a point per game this season with 16 goals and 13 assists in 27 contests.  In order for the Lightning to retain his NHL rights, they’ll have to sign MacDonald by June 1st and how he fares down the stretch with the Olympiques will go a long way toward determining if he’s worthy of an entry-level deal.
  • Canadiens prospect Oliver Kapanen has signed a one-year extension with KalPa through the 2023-24 season, the Finnish team announced. The 19-year-old was a second-round pick by Montreal in 2021 (64th overall) and has seven goals and seven assists in 32 SM-liiga games this season.  He’s currently playing for Finland at the World Juniors where he has two points in three games so far.

Poll: Who Will Finish With The Best Chance At First Overall?

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Success at the World Junior Championship doesn’t guarantee success in the NHL. It’s a junior tournament, after all, and there are countless examples of players who star there only to find it difficult to translate their game to the professional level. Esa Keskinen, for example, is one of the highest-scoring players of all time with 31 points in two tournaments. The fifth-round pick never came over to North America (likely due to his small stature during a different era of hockey), playing out his career in Finland and Sweden instead.

But even as scouts are starting to place less importance on performance there, the World Juniors plays an important role in something else for future stars: an introduction to a wider audience.

In the grand scheme of hockey fans, there aren’t many watching Regina Pats games. They might not get a chance to see future first-overall pick Connor Bedard on a very regular basis, if at all. So when he puts up seven points in one game or comes within one goal of the Canadian record from a ridiculous angle suddenly fans from across the league start dreaming about him pulling on their sweater next season.

Tanking for the first-overall pick doesn’t work all that well in hockey. The draft lottery gives hope to around half the league (depending on trades) and causes anxiety for those clubs at the bottom of the standings. Going into tonight’s games, the Chicago Blackhawks have the best odds of winning the right to select Bedard. Chicago has lost nine of their last ten and 25 of 33 on the year. Their .303 winning percentage would be the third worst in the salary cap era if it continued all year. The two teams ahead (or behind) them though – the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche and 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings – both failed to win the lottery.

Colorado fell to fourth after three teams jumped them, and got the consolation prize of Cale Makar. The Red Wings fell three spots too and had to settle for Lucas Raymond.

There have been some changes since then, meaning Chicago (or whoever finishes last) won’t drop quite so far. But coming last still by no means guarantees the top pick. In fact, a team like the Montreal Canadiens could theoretically end up with an even greater chance, even without finishing last. The Canadiens have their own pick and Florida’s, who are also currently out of the playoff picture. Should the Panthers drop even further, Montreal would essentially have two cracks to move up.

There is also a lot of hockey left to play. One more win would tie the Blackhawks with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Two would bring them even with the Anaheim Ducks, who have played three more games. There’s a long race to be run by quite a few teams.

So as you watch Bedard (and Adam Fantilli) pile goals onto an overmatched Austrian squad, who do you think will enter the draft lottery with the best chance? Cast your vote below and explain how you see it playing out in the comments.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jackets To Loan David Jiricek For World Juniors

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The Blue Jackets have made a decision on Czechia’s request to loan defenseman David Jiricek for the upcoming World Juniors.  As Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports (subscription link), Columbus will let the 19-year-old participate in the event where he’ll play alongside two more team prospects in forward Martin Rysavy and defenseman Stanislav Svozil.

Jiricek was the sixth-overall pick by the Blue Jackets in the summer despite missing significant time due to an injury sustained in the original version of the World Juniors last December.  This will be his third time participating in the event (not including the canceled edition).

His first season in North America has been a successful one to the point where it was possible that Columbus could have declined the Czechs’ request in order to allow him to continue his momentum with AHL Cleveland.  Jiricek is on a nice run with the Monsters with an impressive 11 points in his last 10 games and is likely to have another NHL stint at some point in the second half of the season after getting into two games back in late October.  It seems likely that Columbus will want to keep him below the 10-game threshold to not activate the first year of his contract.

The roster for the Czechs hasn’t been finalized yet – they have three cuts still to make – but as things stand, they’re likely to send 12 NHL-drafted prospects to the event with Jiricek being the headliner.  On top of that, the team will likely also have draft-eligible winger Eduard Sale, who is expected to be a lottery selection in June.  Accordingly, they could be an under-the-radar team to keep an eye on.

Afternoon Notes: Schedule, Stone, Sabres, Team Canada Captains, Hershey Bears

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More hockey? You’d be hard-pressed to find a fan who wouldn’t want it. Earlier this week, there had been some discussions about the NHL potentially expanding the season back to an 84 game schedule for the first time since the 1993-94 campaign. Last night on Hockey Night in Canada’s 32 Thoughts segment, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman expanded on those rumors with an idea of what that schedule might look like, and how the league could get there.

In effect, the schedule would be expanded an additional two games to promote intra-division rivalries, such as the one between the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers or the one between the New York Rangers and New York Islanders, both of which have seen their head-to-head matchups drop off in recent years. As Friedman details, the schedule would consist of four games against each of the other teams within the division, three games each against each team in the opposing division, and two against each team in the opposite conference. To balance things out, each team’s slate of preseasons games could be cut down. It doesn’t appear that any change is imminent, however Friedman adds that there is a willingness to discuss the change between the league and the NHLPA, however there hasn’t been much dialogue on the subject recently.

  • Things didn’t look good for Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone last night when he went down in obvious pain during the third period of the team’s game against the New York Islanders. The winger struggled to get off the ice with the assistance of his teammates, but surprisingly was able to come back and join them in the final moments of the game. Unsurprisingly, after the game, Vegas head coach Bruce Cassidy was asked about the status of his star forward, telling The Athletic’s Jesse Granger that the hope is Stone’s injury is “just a stinger,” but he wouldn’t know much more until today. Cassidy added that Stone was not 100% when he rejoined the team late in the game. So far, no additional information has come out about Stone’s status. Vegas next plays at home on Monday against the Sabres.
  • Yesterday, the Buffalo Sabres were able to get forward Kyle Okposo back from injury and Jeff Skinner back from suspension, but were without defensemen Owen Power, Jacob Bryson, and Ilya Lyubushkin. The team didn’t have much information on Power or Bryson, and the same holds true today, however according to The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington, Ilya Lyubushkin is set to return tomorrow against Vegas. Noticeably absent from the ice this morning were defensemen Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson, but as Harrington adds, both were absent simply for rest purposes.
  • With the World Junior Championship just eight days away, Hockey Canada announced its leadership group for this year’s World Juniors team. Captaining the group will be Seattle Kraken forward and fourth-overall pick in 2022, Shane Wright. Assisting him will be Arizona Coyotes forward Dylan Guenther, Dallas Stars draft pick and current Kamloops Blazers forward Logan Stankoven, Anaheim Ducks draft pick and Quebec Remparts forward Nathan Gaucher, as well as Chicago Blackhawks draft pick and Mississauga Steelheads defenseman Ethan Del Mastro. Canada will kick things off against Czechia on December 26th.
  • Many don’t necessarily think about when an NHL team chooses to recall a player from their affiliate, it could set off a chain reaction of needs within their system, and that’s just what happened with the Washington Capitals and their goaltenders. When Darcy Kuemper went down a couple of weeks ago, the team recalled Hunter Shepard, which Hershey was able to cope with by recalling Clay Stevenson from the ECHL. No problem. But, when Washington also recalled Zachary Fucale yesterday in the wake of Shepard’s upper-body injury, Hershey was forced to sign an emergency back-up to a PTO for their game last night. Today, the Bears were able to smooth things out in net prior to their game against the Lehigh Valley Phantoms this afternoon, bringing up netminder Tyler Wall from the South Carolina Stingrays, Hershey and Washington’s ECHL affiliate. In a corresponding move, defenseman Martin Has has been sent to South Carolina. While this is a relatively minor move, it does give context for the transactions NHL teams make that sometimes seem to be done just for the sake of doing them.

Team USA Announces 2023 World Juniors Roster

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With the World Juniors rapidly approaching, Team USA needed to make a final round of cuts to prepare its 25-man WJC roster. With Ryan Leonard, Jack Devine, Shai Buium, and Tyler Muszelik sent home, the 25-man roster has been settled. Team USA will begin their tournament taking on Latvia on December 26th. The players are as follows:

Goaltenders (3)

Trey Augustine – 2023 Draft Eligible

Kaidan Mbereko – 2023 Draft Eligible

Andrew Oke – 2023 Draft Eligible

Defensemen (8)

Sean Behrens –  (COL)

Seamus Casey – (NJD)

Ryan Chesley – (WSH)

Luke Hughes – (NJD)

Lane Hutson – (MTL)

Luke Mittelstadt – 2023 Draft Eligible

Jack Peart – (MIN)

Ryan Ufko – (NSH)

Forwards (14)

Jackson Blake – (CAR)

Gavin Brindley – 2023 Draft Eligible

Tyler Boucher – (OTT)

Kenny Connors – (LAK)

Logan Cooley – (ARZ)

Dylan Duke – (TBL)

Cutter Gauthier – (PHI)

Noah Laba – (NYR)

Sam Lipkin – (ARZ)

Chaz Lucius – (WPG)

Rutger McGroarty – (WPG)

Red Savage – (DET)

Jimmy Snuggerud – (STL)

Charlie Stramel – 2023 Draft Eligible

This team is likely to be highlighted by a first line comprised entirely of highly-drafted NHL prospects. The trio of top 2022 picks  Gauthier, Cooley, and Snuggerud could be a treat to watch, and the Americans’ depth at forward combined with their talented blueliners such as Hughes, Hutson, and Chesley should make this team a strong contender for a medal. While the situation in the crease is a bit less stable, the WJC will provide twice-undrafted goalie Mbereko a major stage to showcase why he should be picked next year.

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