Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

The Buffalo Sabres faced an exciting question entering the 2023-24 season – “how high will Devon Levi climb?” It seemed like Levi was set for certain stardom coming off a historically good collegiate career, with some even claiming him as a pre-season favorite for the Calder Trophy opposite Connor Bedard. But Levi’s first full year of pro hockey proved to be much more human than anticipated, and it was Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen who stole Buffalo’s starting role while Levi split time between the NHL backup and AHL starter roles. Luukkonen performed well in the spotlight, managing 27 wins, a .910 save percentage, and five shutouts while handling a commendable 54 games. Now, nearly a month into the off-season, Luukkonen sits as an unsigned restricted free agent and Buffalo faces a new, much bleaker question: “who is our starter?”

The clearest answer seems to be Luukkonen, who’s still just 25 years old and coming off a year that would make any starter proud. It’s been a long march for the Finnish netminder, who struggled to find his footing through his first three years in North American pros. He kicked off his career by earning an AHL promotion on the back of 23 strong ECHL games, though he’d stall out with the Rochester Americans, ultimately recording a bleak .894 save percentage in 60 AHL games between the start of the 2018-19 and the end of the 2021-22 seasons.

But injuries forced Buffalo to recall Luukkonen twice in 2021, ultimately awarding him the first 13 NHL games of his career. He performed well in the spot starts, managing a .913 save percentage despite winning just three games. That was a bright enough flash to earn him a share of backup minutes in the 2022-23 campaign – an opportunity that he took in stride. In a reverse of his early stat line, Luukkonen found strong success in the win column despite a sub-.900 save percentage, posting a team-leading 17 wins and standing as the only Sabres goaltender with a winning record that year. His winning tendencies and strong stat lines merged in the starting role this year, ultimately leading to a season that was hard to ignore. Luukkonen’s 27 wins stand as the most of any Sabres goaltender since Ryan Miller in 2012, and his .910 save percentage is the team’s highest since Robin Lehner in 2017.

Simply put, it’s been a while since Buffalo has seen a goalie season as capable as Luukkonen’s 2023-24 campaign. The team now faces the dreaded task of putting a price to the starring performance, without much supplementary info to go on. Levi’s presence only makes Buffalo’s decision harder. The 22-year-old top prospect managed a .899 save percentage in 23 games as an NHL rookie this season – certainly nothing to bluff at – and a .927 in 26 AHL games – the second-highest save percentage in the minors. Levi still carries a blue chip, even if his highly-anticipated rookie year fell short of the history books. Any long-term extension for Luukkonen would have to consider Levi’s rightful shot at opportunity. And while Buffalo can dream of a perfectly balanced duo akin to Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, it seems more likely that each of Luukonen and Levi’s success comes on the back of a consistent role.

So what could a new deal look like for Luukkonen – and what kind of time share is awaiting him? Thatcher Demko is currently riding a five-year, $25MM extension earned after a pair of limited but promising seasons with the Vancouver Canucks where he managed 29 wins and a .910 save percentage across 62 games. That falls closely in line with Luukkonen’s strong 2023-24, though Demko carried the prestige of a higher draft pick and stronger track record. The Sabres could instead vie for a deal more comparable to Alexandar Georgiev – who joined the Colorado Avalanche on a three-year, $10.2MM deal in 2022 after holding well in the New York Rangers backup role. Like Demko and Luukkonen, Georgiev’s deal came with little to go on, save for a strong stat line in limited minutes.

Unfortunately for the Sabres, both Demko and Georgiev followed their signings with 60-game seasons – and both performed well with the opportunity. That precedent, and Buffalo’s plea for strong consistency in net after so long without it, could force the Sabres to commit to a full year of Luukkonen. That would set them up for a situation more closely related to Nashville’s than Boston’s, with a top-end, young goaltender burgeoning out of the AHL starter role, but an all-too-capable starter hogging the limelight. Or the Sabres may bridge the gap between the two teams – a benefit of a nearby AHL team – finding ways to incorporate Levi into the lineup whenever available, while still honoring Luukkonen’s deserved chance at a full-time role. Either way, the team’s vision for their goaltending will be spelled out by the contract they sign Luukkonen to – and it will be a decision with major ramifications.