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Tyler Toffoli

Trade Candidate: Tyler Toffoli

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we continue to profile players that have a good chance to be dealt by February 24th.

Last season, Kings winger Tyler Toffoli was drawing a fair bit of interest around the league but Los Angeles ultimately balked on selling low and held onto him for this season.  They’ve been somewhat rewarded for their patience as he has bounced back somewhat but they still find themselves well out of the playoff picture.  Accordingly, it seems quite likely that Toffoli will be on the move over the next few weeks.

Contract

Toffoli is in the final season of a three-year, $13.8MM contract signed back in 2017.  The deal was slightly back-loaded as his $4.8MM salary is a little higher than his $4.6MM cap hit.  There is no trade protection in the contract and he is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent in July.

2019-20

There haven’t been many bright spots in Los Angeles this season as the Kings are once again mired at the bottom of the standings in the Western Conference.  However, the 27-year-old has bounced back from a rough 2018-19 campaign and would have to be considered one of the few positives they’ve had this year.  He sits third on the team in points with 30 and has already surpassed his goal total from last season despite playing in 27 fewer games and averaging a lower amount of ice time.  While Toffoli hasn’t rebounded to the level of being a top liner like he was in his breakout 2015-16 campaign, he has done enough to restore some trade value to the point where teams will look at him as a top-six upgrade.  That should also bode well for his free agency prospects.

Season Stats

55 GP, 14 goals, 16 assists, 30 points, -7 rating, 16 PIMS, 149 shots, 16:27 TOI, 57.5 CF%

Potential Suitors

While Rangers winger Chris Kreider is the top potential prize of the deadline, Toffoli could very well be the Plan B option for quite a few teams.  That should bode well for the Kings as there will certainly be enough leverage to garner a fairly strong return.

In the East, the Bruins have been linked to Toffoli going back to last season and he’s certainly on their radar again.  Boston has been looking to add secondary scoring for a while and he would certainly help round out their attack and take some pressure off their number one line but they will need some help to make him fit on their salary cap.  The Penguins are known to be looking for a replacement for the injured Jake Guentzel and with him on LTIR, they have the cap room to bring him in.  The Flyers are one of the deeper offensive teams but they’re a team that is known to have some interest but making the money work will be difficult.  The Islanders should be sniffing around any sort of potential offensive upgrade while the Blue Jackets have played their way into the playoff picture despite a mediocre attack.  GM Jarmo Kekalainen may be hesitant to enter the rental market after what transpired last year but Toffoli would give them a nice boost offensively.

Out West, the Flames have been shopping for a replacement for Michael Frolik and Toffoli would represent an offensive upgrade at a similar price tag.  The Stars have fizzled offensively and could certainly use the upgrade if they’re willing to go into LTIR and all but ensure that they’ll be facing a bonus overage penalty next season.  Adding Taylor Hall and Phil Kessel hasn’t done much to boost the scoring punch for the Coyotes so more help would be welcome but they’d basically need to match money which could make things difficult.  The Avalanche don’t really need the offensive boost – they’re in the top-five in goals scored – but they have a short-term window to work with before some of their players need new, pricier contracts so the short-term commitment to someone like Toffoli may be enticing to them.

Likelihood Of A Trade

A trade has seemed inevitable going all the way back to last season.  While Toffoli is young enough to still be part of the future core for the Kings, it doesn’t appear as if there’s interest in that happening.  He has been in trade rumors for a couple of years now and within the next couple of weeks, one of those will come to fruition.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Kings, Ryan, Giordano

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The Los Angeles Kings are a team to watch as the trade deadline approaches, and they took up a pair of notes in Elliotte Friedman’s latest 31 Thoughts column. The Sportsnet scribe writes that even though Kings’ head coach Todd McLellan wanted to re-sign Tyler Toffoli, the forward will “more likely than not” be traded in the next few weeks. The Boston Bruins, Calgary Flames and Philadelphia Flyers are all linked to Toffoli, who has turned around his season and has 17 points in his last 23 games.

Another player to watch according to Friedman is Alec Martinez, who is linked to the Nashville Predators, Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights in the piece. It’s clear the Kings are looking to rebuild their squad after struggling in consecutive seasons.

  • Bobby Ryan returned to the ice at Ottawa Senators practice today for the first time since taking an indefinite leave of absence to enter the player assistance program in late November. Head coach D.J. Smith told reporters that Ryan is still “a ways away” from returning to the lineup, but expressed his support for the veteran forward and explained how the rest of the team welcomed him back.
  • Mark Giordano is undergoing an MRI this afternoon after suffering an unfortunate injury on Tuesday night. The Calgary Flames captain fell as he shot a puck and seemed to injure his leg, but it is not clear how long he will be out for until the results come back. Eric Francis of Sportsnet examined the situation and the options the Flames have if Giordano does miss a significant stretch of time.

Trade Rumors: Andersson, Islanders, Avalanche

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As if it wasn’t complicated enough when Lias Andersson, the New York Rangers first-round pick at No. 7 overall in 2017, demanded a trade from the team last month, TSN’s Darren Dreger states that as the situation continues to unravel, things are getting “messy”. Andersson, who was suspended by the Rangers after leaving the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack, has returned to his native Sweden for the time being. In the meantime, rumors have swirled that the 21-year-old is dealing with mental health issues, a sentiment that Andersson’s camp is now fighting back against. Where there is some documented injury is in his foot, and Andersson is set to undergo surgery shortly that will keep him sidelined for multiple weeks.

Yet, teams are still not shying away from kicking the tires on the young forward. Despite his discontent with his role in the Rangers organization and his lack of production in the NHL and AHL, Andersson’s history of strong work ethic, good teamwork, and immense skill persists, and NHL clubs will continue to keep tabs on him. Dreger’s colleague Bob McKenzie believes that the Rangers are ready to move on and preparing to trade Andersson before the NHL Trade Deadline if they can get “the right prospect” in return. McKenzie does warn though that New York is cognizant of the message that this could send to other prospects in their system and want to be careful with how they deal with the Andersson situation.

  • When the New York Islanders lost stalwart defenseman Adam Pelech for the season due to injury, GM Lou Lamoriello was quick to note that “You don’t replace an Adam Pelech at the trade deadline”. The shutdown defender is relied upon for big minutes and competent defensive play that is not easy to replicate. The Islanders’ plan is to handle the loss internally for the time being, mixing their defensive pairs until they find the right fit. Thus far, the results on the back end are “encouraging”, writes The Athletic’s Arthur Staple. However, that doesn’t mean that the Islanders won’t be on the lookout for defensive help ahead of the trade deadline. Yet, Staple believes that the team’s current scoring doubt shows that offense is still a greater concern than defense, even with the absence of Pelech, and that the team should devote more of their trade capital to improving up front rather than on the blue line.
  • For much of the season, the Colorado Avalanche have been talked about as one of the biggest suitors on the trade market. A legitimate Stanley Cup contender with considerable cap space, it makes sense that the Avs could choose this year to load up for a run. However, Colorado did not land Taylor Hall despite rumored interest and now Colorado Hockey Now’s Adrian Dater reports that they are no longer pursuing another top option. Dater writes that Los Angeles Kings forward Tyler Toffoli will likely not be landing in Denver this season, as the Avs have apparently falling out of the running for the two-way winger. Dater is beginning to doubt if Colorado makes any big moves this season in an uninspiring trade market.

Canucks Notes: Trade Target, Markstrom, Sutter

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The Vancouver Canucks are exceeding expectations this season and, after a brief slide, are back to their winning ways with twelve points in their past ten games. The team is currently sitting in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but trail Calgary and Edmonton in the division by just four points with two games in hand, a difference of just .025 in points percentage. Rather than take this surprise success for granted, GM Jim Benning plans to take advantage. Speaking with Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre on Wednesday, Benning said that he is targeting a top-six scoring winger before the NHL Trade Deadline. He did qualify his comments by adding that the deal must “make sense”, but did not say exactly what that meant. With nine forwards carrying cap hits of  $3MM+ through 2020-21, a trade that makes sense for Vancouver is likely a rental deal. The team is also unlikely to get into the bidding for a star like Taylor Hall if it causes too much of a mortgage on their future in a year where a Stanley Cup run would take a fair amount of luck even with their solid play thus far. Potential targets who would nicely on the wing in Vancouver this season could include Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Galchenyuk, Tyler Toffoli, or perhaps even Chris Kreider. There is still a lot of time left before the deadline and Vancouver’s play between now and then will dictate just how willing Benning in his to make a big deal.

  • Benning also stated in the interview that he plans to formally open up extension talks with starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom soon. Benning did not add much detail, and the Canucks’ interest in retaining Markstrom has previously been reported, but Benning did let slip one new wrinkle in the story. Benning stated that part of the reason that Vancouver would like to re-sign Markstrom was the impact that it would have on their protection scheme for the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Each team can only protect one goalie and must expose an eligible goalie who is under contract or team control (RFA) in 2021. Thatcher Demko would fit this description, but the team is likely hesitant to expose their potential future starter. As such, the team will likely eye a contract of at least two years with Markstrom to ensure they have a sacrificial lamb to offer up to Seattle. Whether or not the expansion team would have interest remains to be seen, but Markstrom will certainly draw interest before then if he hits the open market this summer. It seems Benning and company will try their hardest to prevent that.
  • Expected to miss just two weeks, a month later Brandon Sutter still has yet to return to the Vancouver lineup. The team has opted to scratch him in each of their past two games despite Sutter being medically cleared, as The Province’s Patrick Johnston writes that the team is being cautious and easing the veteran center back into action. This careful handling of Sutter’s health may not end any time soon either. Johnston believes that it could be a case of “load management” for Sutter this season. The defensive forward has struggled with groin injuries in the past and it is a notoriously lingering condition in hockey, so Sutter’s recent groin strain is nothing to take lightly. Expect Sutter, who was playing some of the best hockey of his Vancouver tenure before getting injured, to miss some games here and there and potentially see some fluctuations in his ice time as the Canucks manage his pain and try to keep him fresh for a hopeful playoff run..

 

Hurricanes, Sabres Shopping Defensemen

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The Carolina Hurricanes were seeking a top-nine forward when they traded away long-time defenseman Justin Faulk this summer. However, the best return they could find was a prospect forward, Dominik Bokk, and another established defenseman in Joel Edmundson from the St. Louis Blues. Now, the Hurricanes are more or less back in the same situation, trying to deal from their blue line depth for help up front. Even after moving Faulk and Calvin de Haan in the off-season, the additions of Edmundson, Jake Gardiner, and Gustav Forsling has created yet another logjam on defense. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Carolina is calling around to other teams and shopping veteran Trevor van Riemsdyk, as well as 23-year-old Haydn Fleury, who is no longer waiver-exempt, in hopes of landing a scoring forward in return.

However, they aren’t alone. LeBrun’s colleague Darren Dreger reports that the Buffalo Sabres are also making calls to dangle defenders in anticipation of their team getting healthy. Dreger states that Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella will make their returns “right around the corner”, but first Buffalo will need to clear space. The red-hot Sabres likely want to avoid a major shake-up, such as moving the now-content Rasmus Ristolainen, but also likely aren’t keen to move recent additions like Brandon Montour and Colin Miller. The team can demote Lawrence Pilut and even Henri Jokiharju, but will still need to make room on the blue line. Dreger states that Buffalo is hoping to land both a top-six and bottom-six forward, so trading away a John Gilmour won’t get the job done. Bogosian, Scandella, and Jake McCabe seem like the most likely to be dealt at this point.

So who could take advantage of a market flush with capable defenders? Top contenders like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and San Jose Sharks are all struggling defensively this season and have the depth of forwards to swing a deal. The Minnesota Wild are known to be open to moving several forward and could pursue a defenseman that they see as a long-term fit. The same could be said for other struggling teams, especially those with intriguing impending free agents, such as the Los Angeles Kings (Tyler Toffoli) and New York Rangers (Chris Kreider). The Hurricanes’ and Sabres’ competition to make a deal may even lower the acquisition costs for any interested teams. The trade market appears to be heating up early this season and the odds of a deal – or several – before the holiday trade freeze are high.

Tyler Toffoli Comments On Trade Speculation

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With the Kings struggling last season, winger Tyler Toffoli’s name started to come up in trade speculation as the trade deadline approached.  As he was struggling offensively and had another year left on his contract, GM Rob Blake ultimately decided against selling low and brought him back for the final season of his deal.

Things haven’t gone much better in 2019-20.  While his offensive numbers are a bit better compared to last year’s pace, Toffoli was recently made a healthy scratch as new head coach Todd McLellan looks to light a fire under a team that has just five wins in 14 games to start the season and has them battling to stay out of the Western Conference basement as a result.

Not surprisingly, Toffoli’s name has once again resurfaced in trade speculation.  Speaking with Sportsnet’s Luke Fox, the 27-year-old seems relatively unfazed about potentially being on the move in the coming months:

I mean, it’s just the way it is. It comes with not playing well and not winning games, so whatever happens, happens.

With Los Angeles clearly heading towards a rebuilding phase, they’re going to want to be clearing out some veterans and stockpiling picks and young players.  However, the majority of their veterans are on long-term deals which are difficult to move in general but even trickier to do so in-season.  That makes Toffoli’s expiring deal, one that carries a $4.6MM cap hit, a much more palatable target.

With three seasons of 20-plus goals under his belt over the past five years, there should be a fair bit of interest in Toffoli.  While his recent dip in production will certainly affect his trade value, it still seems more likely than not that it will be a matter of when, not if, Toffoli is dealt between now and the February 24th trade deadline.

Snapshots: Toffoli, Daley, Thornton, Fines

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Boston’s desire to add scoring depth on the wing is well-known and it appears they’re open to adding a player signed beyond this season instead of necessarily looking at a rental.  In an appearance on WGR 550 (audio link), TSN’s Darren Dreger indicated that Kings winger Tyler Toffoli is someone that the Bruins are believed to have interest in.  The 26-year-old has struggled considerably this season, scoring just eight times in 50 games despite logging a career-high 17:26 per night.  That’s not great value for a player with a $4.6MM cap hit through next season but Toffoli is also someone that certainly could benefit from a change of scenery which makes him an intriguing trade target to watch for.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • Red Wings defenseman Trevor Daley will be out another seven-to-ten days with as he works his way back from a broken foot, notes Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News. The veteran has played in just 31 games this season but a good showing in his return might give Detroit a small chance to move him and get out of the final year of his contract which carries a $3.167MM cap hit.  It’s worth noting that on February 16th, his full no-trade clause drops to a 15-team restriction.
  • Although Sharks center Joe Thornton has been playing regularly since returning from a knee infection and a broken toe, he still is not fully healthy, head coach Peter DeBoer told Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News. The 39-year-old is logging just 15:31 per game, his lowest since 1998-99.  If the issues persist, it could force San Jose to look into bringing in some extra depth down the middle between now and the trade deadline.
  • The Department of Player Safety announced (Twitter links) a pair of $5K fines for incidents from Friday night. Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov was fined for a trip on Islanders defenseman Scott Mayfield while Senators center Zack Smith was hit with a fine for an elbow on Penguins rearguard Marcus Pettersson.  The amounts are the maximum allowable under the CBA.

Trade Rumors: Duchene, Lightning, Bargains

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Seemingly every year, there is speculation that a prominent impending free agent could be the one to finally bring the “sign and trade” back to the NHL. The sign and trade is relatively self explanatory; a player re-signs with his current team to a contract negotiated with a second team that he is subsequently traded to. In the current structure of the NHL, the sign and trade could hypothetically be used to add an eighth year to a contact, as free agents are limited to a cap of seven years when negotiating with a team other than their current club. This season, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun has reopened the sign and trade discussions, this time in regards to Ottawa Senators forward Matt Duchene. LeBrun speculates that Duchene has approximately two weeks to work out an extension with the Senators before the team will be forced to shop him. Ottawa has reportedly already made an initial offer of eight years and $64MM, but Duchene is likely to be eyeing an AAV closer to $9MM per year instead of $8MM. If that counter is too rich for Senators owner Eugene Melnyk and company, the team could not afford to miss out on a the potential return for Duchene at the trade deadline.

When it comes to a sign-and-trade, things get tricky for the player, which could explain why it remains such an infrequently used device in the NHL. While the eighth year is enticing for Duchene, especially at his desired salary, signing that long-term deal means a) getting another team to first agree to that contract and b) trusting the future plans for that franchise. The last time Duchene was traded, from the Colorado Avalanche to the Senators early last season, it didn’t work out so well. Duchene may be hesitant to sign with a team for eight years simply because they can afford to acquire him this season. A sign and trade also eliminates Duchene’s opportunity to test the free agent market and potentially maximize his market value. Duchene will undoubtedly be the top center on the UFA market this summer and may wish to weigh his options rather as a first-time free agent rather than commit to another team so soon before seeing what else is out there. A sign and trade works out nicely for the Senators, as they would surely receive a better return, but finding a trade partner could be difficult and getting Duchene to go along with the plan may not happen. For these reasons, a sign and trade remains an unlikely result to the ongoing Duchene saga.

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have all the makings of a true trade deadline buyer this season: they are the first-place team in the league by a considerable margin, will have upwards of $8MM in cap space by the deadline, and are facing an impending cap crunch that could begin to dismantle their roster as early as this off-season. The Lightning are in win-now mode and, with excellent odds of winning the Stanley Cup, will look to add the best reinforcements they can ahead of the deadline. However, the Lightning may struggle to make the trades typically seen by a true buyer. Tampa Bay currently has 49 players signed to professional contracts against a cap of 50, per CapFriendly. The team probably doesn’t want to hit that 50-contract mark either, as it would take them out of the college and junior free agent market this spring. This means that the Bolts cannot simply trade picks and prospects for rental players. Instead, GM Julien BriseBois will have to get creative with sending under-contract players the other way. Only two of Tampa’s 49 “pro” players are in juniors, meaning that any trades will likely send current AHL contributors to sellers and the team will effort to do so without hurting their postseason depth. At the end of the day, Tampa Bay’s trades at the deadline may end up looking more like hockey trades – player-for-player talent swaps – than you would typically see from a deadline buyer.
  • Sportsnet’s Andrew Berkshire believes that there is great long-term value to be found in the current buyer’s market. Berkshire writes that the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli, the Chicago Blackhawks’ Brandon Saad, and the Florida Panthers’ Evgeni Dadonov are among the best bargains potentially available on the market due to their recent struggles and/or under-the-radar trade status. Berkshire states that Toffoli’s value is at a career-low given his current 33-point pace for the down-and-out Kings. However, Toffoli notched 47 points just last year and has 20+ goals in three of the past four seasons. The two-way forward also has a palatable $4.6MM cap hit and could be a buy-low candidate that blows up with a change of scenery. Similarly, Berkshire believes that Saad’s value is still low after bottoming out last season. He has rebounded this season, but is still on pace to fall short of the 50+ points that used to come consistently for him. At $6MM AAV for two more years, Saad’s contract isn’t egregious but is a strain for the cap-strapped Blackhawks. They could be enticed to sell low on the power forward and could very well end up on the wrong side of a Saad trade for the third time. Conversely, Berkshire believes that the Panthers are happy with Dadonov and would be reluctant to move him, but may feel pressured to sell at the deadline despite few obvious rental pieces. The play-making winger is quietly on his way to another 65-point season or better and with one year left on his contract at just $4MM, is already a bargain and could be even better elsewhere. Florida won’t give him up easily, but considering the upside that Dadonov has shown, he could still prove to be a steal even with ample trade capital going the other way.

Boston Bruins Won’t Wait To Add Help Up Front

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By most standards, the Boston Bruins are off to a strong start in 2018-19, sharing the fourth best record in the NHL. By their own standards, the campaign has been less than spectacular thus far due to the heavy reliance on the first line. The grouping of Patrice Bergeron between Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak is considered by many to be the best line in the NHL. Through twelve games, Pastrnak is tied for the league lead in goals with 11 and has a total of 16 points, Bergeron is third in the league in scoring with 19 points, and Marchand has hardly looked himself and has still contributed 15 points. However, beyond those three, scoring has been hard to come by. According to Matt Kalman of WEEI Boston, it’s not a problem that president Cam Neely and company are willing to “wait too long” to solve.

Neely knows that the Bruins cannot possibly top their performance from last season, a Round Two defeat at the hands of the division rival Tampa Bay Lightning, with just one line of production. Yet, that is more or less what they have had so far. Beyond the top line, second line mainstay David Krejci has been playing well with nine points to date. However, he has had little help, as frequent linemates Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen have failed to build upon breakout rookie campaigns and have been held to just three points apiece. Calder hopeful Ryan Donato has been anything but and was recently demoted after recording just a single point in eleven games. Even surprise top-nine regulars Joakim Nordstrom and Anders Bjork have just two points each. This also comes after prospects Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, and Jack Studnicka all failed to claim an open third-line center spot in camp, a role initially held by veteran David Backes, who was scoreless through seven games before getting injured. Kalman recently opined that Backes should not necessarily even return to the Bruins lineup once healthy.

Neely told Kalman that “we recognize we don’t want to sit around, wait too long, for something that may or may not happen”, as management’s patience with the lack of secondary scoring is running out. He spoke individually on each of the four struggling younsters – DeBrusk, Heinen, Donato, and Bjork – expressing varying degrees of trust in their ability to bounce back, but simply said as a group the young forwards need to improve in all three zones. There is no reason to think that any of the four will turn things around, especially without some shakeup to the roster.

So what could be the next move? Speaking with TSN 1050 in Toronto yesterday, insider Darren Dreger stated that he thinks the Bruins would be willing to part with one of Heinen, 23, or Bjork, 22, in the right deal. The pair share a similar skill set and ceiling and neither has made much of an impact thus far. Of the two, Heinen’s stock is higher, fresh off of a 47-point campaign that placed him among the top ten in rookie scorers. However, Bjork himself was on pace for a 30+ point season prior to season-ending injury and has looked the better of the two thus far this season. Using the last-place Los Angeles Kings as an example, Dreger speculates that a cap-strapped club like L.A. might be willing to part with a Tyler Toffoli or Tanner Pearson for a package based around a young, affordable, and controllable asset like Heinen or Bjork. Beyond Dreger’s hypothetical, the Bruins could also deal from their wealth of defensive prospects or dangle a mid-round draft pick in order to land some help. Established young forwards of any kind would likely be the primary target group, but impending unrestricted free agent centers could also make an immediate difference. The Bruins could kick the tires on the likes of Matt Duchene, Kevin Hayes, Jason Spezza, and Brock Nelson before too long. Neely has made it clear that the team won’t wait to fix their secondary scoring and a deal could occur any time now.

Kings’ Alec Martinez Drawing Trade Interest

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The Los Angeles Kings have the worst record in the NHL right now at 3-7-1. Trade interest in top players comes with that territory. The newest name that has GM Rob Blake’s phones ringing is veteran defenseman Alec Martinez. TSN’s Darren Dreger recently talked on TSN Radio 1290 about the growing market for the talented two-way defender, hinting that there is “a ton of interest”.

However, Dreger did state that his feeling in speaking with Blake was that the GM was not yet ready to pull the trigger on a major trade. Martinez is one of several players – Jake Muzzin, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, and Trevor Lewis being others – that the struggling Kings could deal away before the season ends. Yet, Blake is being patient with his team right now and, in Dreger’s opinion, is not ready to become a seller this early in the season. Dreger also notes that L.A. is dealing from a position of weakness right now due to their slow start and are likely receiving offers for Martinez not yet equivalent to his true value.

Yet, Martinez remains one of the most likely names to move out should Blake reach his boiling point and finally respond to trade interest. At 31 years old, Martinez is on the downside of his career and his decline in production last season is even further evidence. He also carries another two years of term on his current contract beyond this season at a $4MM cap hit. The cap-strapped Kings could certainly benefit from dumping his salary, but are likely to land some intriguing assets in return as well. As Dreger notes, the time doesn’t seem right just now, but as long as the Kings continue to struggle, a move is unavoidable and Martinez very well could be the first major departure.

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