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Tomas Tatar

Is Jeff Blashill Really To Blame For Red Wings’ Woes?

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The Detroit Red Wings weren’t expected to do much this season so slogging to a 6-6-1 record shouldn’t catch anyone by surprise. But after starting out 4-1, the Red Wings dropped six in a row and suddenly Blashill found himself on toasty seat. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch wrote last week that the lack of improvement have started whispers around the league that the third-year coach is on borrowed time. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa adds that Blashill shouldn’t see a fourth season should the Red Wings continue to plummet in play. Aside from a lackluster power play, an inability to score goals, and some regression from scoring hopefuls Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar, Blashill told Krupa back in July that he was 100% confident that Detroit would return to the playoffs after last year’s hiatus. That puts a lot of pressure on a coach who doesn’t have the strongest of rosters.

The Red Wings look far from a playoff contender. Worse, it looks like the Red Wings have a long journey back to respectability.

While Blashill certainly shoulders some of the blame for regression, others point out that Ken Holland, the architect of the team,  should see the door first. From another standpoint, firing Blashill may just be putting a bandaid on a bigger wound. Red Wings blog Winging it in Motown had a writeup about exactly this and wondered if it would actually make sense to let Blashill go. From WIIM:

Things in Detroit won’t change for the better until the organization gets out of these bad contracts and changes the way it operates from a trades and free agency standpoint. The issues of this team start as a result of Holland and anything that leads to his return next season as general manager will just kick the can down the road. Unfortunately, another bad season is the only way to start the process of getting out of this mess.

The more the team struggles the louder the coaching change rumors will get. We have to hope for no knee jerk reactions that will set things back further as the season continues.

Regardless of what happens, Detroit is stuck with a lot of long-term deals drowning in dollars. It seems the Red Wings problems run deeper than just who is behind the bench.

Vegas Recalls Vadim Shipachyov, Will Make Debut Sunday

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The Vegas Golden Knights have finally recalled center Vadim Shipachyov today from the Chicago Wolves, tweeted Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. In a corresponding move, Johnston tweets that Vegas has placed Erik Haula on injured reserve after a fight with Detroit’s Tomas Tatar last night.

For Shipachyov, it’s been a long wait to make his NHL debut. Considered to be a key signing by Vegas and quite possibly one of their best playmakers on the team, Shipachyov fell into a numbers crunch with the team’s extreme defensive depth of non-waiver eligible defensemen. In hopes of making a late trade, general manager George McPhee instead decided to option the Russian center to avoid having to place one of those defensemen on waivers and lose them. The 30-year-old has played his entire career in the KHL, putting up big numbers last season for St. Petersburg with 26 goals, 50 assists and 76 points, all career-highs. He signed a two-year deal with Vegas on May 4.

Instead, while he had been optioned to Chicago in the AHL, he never played for them, having stayed in Vegas. There were reports he was upset about the situation and his agents were looking for a way out of his contract situation. McPhee later said that he had no options, although that might be debateable, however, he said he spoke to Shipachyov’s camp and explained the situation better to the KHL veteran. Now, it looks like Shipachyov will make his debut Sunday at T-Mobile Arena against the Boston Bruins.

As for Haula, the 26-year-old wing has had a goal and an assist in four games. Claimed from the Minnesota Wild in the expansion draft, Haula had 15 goals and 26 points for the Wild last season and did score his lone goal last night against the Red Wings. The speedy wing had trouble getting minutes in Minnesota despite four years with the team and then chose to sign a three-year deal with Vegas, making him the Wild’s expansion selection.

Evening Notes: Zetterberg, Shipachyov, Pickard

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The Detroit Red Wings are getting ready to start another season shortly and while many aren’t expecting an impressive season from this team, the team still has eyes for the playoffs. MLive’s Ansar Khan answers some mailbag questions about the upcoming season and points out that with the combination of gritty veterans and young talent, the team may show some promise. The scribe writes to expect 36-year-old veteran Henrik Zetterberg to center Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist, who were their top line at the end of last year. The belief is that Tatar and Nyquist should benefit from Zetterberg’s presence to build their confidence early in the season.

He added that Dylan Larkin looks ready to take over as the team’s second-line center and be matched with Anthony Mantha, who scored 17 goals in his first full season. Justin Abdelkader might be a good fit to fill out that line. The third line would Frans Nielsen, Darren Helm and Andreas Athanasiou, if the restricted free agent signs with the team. Luke Glendening, Riley Sheahan and Tyler Bertuzzi are the likely candidates on the fourth line, assuming things don’t change much in training camp.

  • The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen writes that the team will be counting heavily on the success of Russian veteran Vadim Shipachyov this season. The 30-year-old forward was the third-leading scorer in the KHL last year with 26 goals and the team believes that if he can make the conversion to the NHL successfully, the Golden Knights might be better than many believe when it comes to offense. The team already has James Neal, Jon Marchessault, Reilly Smith, David Perron and the hope is Shipachyov will be that top-line player that opens up the offense.
  • In the same story, Schoen adds that he wouldn’t be surprised if Golden Knights’ goaltender Calvin Pickard makes a name for himself, possibly even this season. While starting goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has received all the press and has become the face of the franchise, Pickard is just 25 years old and was a second-round pick in 2010. He was considered a top prospect before he struggled in a full-time role for the struggling Colorado Avalanche last year. His 2.98 GAA left a lot to be desired. However, Fleury is already 33 and while he was impressive in the playoffs for the Penguins, didn’t have a great year as the backup, putting up a 3.02 GAA for the year in 38 games. If Pickard can re-establish himself in Las Vegas, he could find himself getting big minutes.

Red Wings Notes: Getting Under Cap, Green, Helm

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Despite not making the playoffs or really even getting close to making the playoffs a year ago, the Detroit Red Wings are No. 1 in one category — salary cap. The Red Wings are more than $3.9MM over the cap as of now and they still must sign 18-goal scorer and restricted free agent Andreas Athanasiou. As discussed previously on PHR, the Red Wings must find a way to lower their cap and will wait until training camp to make those moves.

However, MLive’s Ansar Khan answered readers questions about how specifically the team might get under the cap. Khan believes that with the eventual Athanasiou signing and the savings from when they place Johan Franzen on LTIR should only put them slightly over the cap. Khan believes that the most likely outcome for Detroit at that point would be to waive a player rather than attempt to move someone like Riley Sheahan, Darren Helm or Mike Green.

However, the scribe adds that while the team believes that previously injured players like Tomas Tatar, Luke Glendening and Niklas Kronwall will be healthy for camp, the team will not make any moves until it knows the status of all their players and that doesn’t even include the potential for a training camp or preseason injury.

One possibility mentioned that could be waived is defenseman Ryan Sproul. A former second-round pick in 2011, he has never been able to establish himself with the Red Wings, but Khan says injuries could put him on the LTIR, but if not, the team should look to move him for a pick or trade him. The team has quite a bit of defensive talent heading to Detroit in the next year or two.

  • In the same piece, Khan suggests that a top trade candidate will be Green, but only if/when the team is out of contention next season when the trade deadline hits. Green is on the final year of a three-year, $18MM deal and had a productive season last year with 14 goals. At age 31, the blueliner could prove to be a valuable commodity to a team making a playoff push.
  • While Helm’s name keeps coming up as a potential player to trade off, Khan writes that the 30-year-old center has little value with his injury history (missed 32 games last year), contract (four years, $14.75MM remaining) and lack of production (17 points last year in 50 games).

East Notes: Patrick, Tatar

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The Philadelphia Flyers tweeted that Nolan Patrick is just fine, indicating that it was either an abscess or a boil afflicting his face. Yesterday, the problem forced Patrick off the ice. The second overall pick of the 2017 draft, Patrick’s injuries were well documented and allowed Nico Hischier to sneak up in terms of draft stock. This seems to be nothing more than a blip on the radar, and Patrick would presumably be available sooner rather than later.

  • Several members of the Detroit media weighed in on the re-signing of Tomas Tatar and it sounds like the 26-year-old winger is just relieved to be finished with the renegotiation of his contract. Mlive’s Scott DeCamp writes that the process was “stressful” and is excited that everything worked out. From DeCamp:

    “I really, really wanted to stay,” he said. “I think Detroit is where I belong. I have so many friends, the fans are awesome. I have a great relationship with guys in the locker room, so it would be really, really hard to have a one-year deal and kind of not knowing what was going to come in the future. I’m extremely happy that I could stay and we found a way to sign the deal.”

    Tatar told DeCamp, and Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News that with last season being a “disappointment” for the team after missing the playoffs, he expects to be better along with the rest of his teammates. Kulfan adds that general manager Ken Holland will now look to lock up forward Andreas Athanasiou, who along with defenseman Robbie Russo, is still without a contract.

Tomas Tatar Signs Four-Year Deal With Detroit Red Wings

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Even after the arbitration hearing went down yesterday, the Detroit Red Wings and Tomas Tatar have come to an agreement on a long-term contract. The four-year deal will pay Tatar $21.2MM, for an average of $5.3MM per season. With less than 24 hours left before an arbitrator made a decision on a one-year contract, the two sides found common ground that will keep Tatar in Detroit for a few years more. The breakdown is as follows: Tomas Tatar

  • 2017-18: $4.875MM salary + $1.125MM signing bonus
  • 2018-19: $5.5MM salary
  • 2019-20: $5.5MM salary
  • 2020-21: $3.2MM salary + $1MM signing bonus

Craig Custance of the Athletic pointed out this morning that the two sides could still reach an agreement in time, and we’ve seen this before in cases like P.K. Subban who signed an eight-year deal after his arbitration hearing in 2014. Tatar was set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, and would have been one of the most interesting names at the trade deadline if Detroit hadn’t been in playoff contention this year.

Now, the Red Wings have more work to do. With Tatar signed, the team is now more than $3MM over the salary cap for next season with Andreas Athanasiou still to sign. The team does have Johan Franzen still under contract and heading for long-term injured reserve, but like in Toronto and Chicago the team may not want to use “summer LTIR” because of the restrictions it comes with. Instead, they could look to move out some of the hefty contracts for their declining veterans through trade or a buyout.

Like Ottawa earlier today when they signed Ryan Dzingel, this move will open a second 48-hour buyout window for the Red Wings on Monday that they could use to clear cap space. Buying out Niklas Kronwall or Jonathan Ericsson would give them around $2.6MM in savings each next season, though both seem unlikely candidates to be cast aside from the only teams they’ve ever known. Mike Green, effective but expensive leads the list of trade candidates, as he is on the final year of his current contract and likely doesn’t fit into the Red Wings timeline going forward. Moving his $6.0MM cap hit would provide quite the cap relief, if they could ever find a buyer to give them some real value in return.

Salary cap issues aside, this contract actually comes in with less total money than the five-year $25MM contract that Tatar reportedly turned down. Though it is a slightly higher cap hit, it seems as though holding firm worked out for Ken Holland in the end as he got the player for a reasonable contract. Tatar signs at the same cap hit as Ondrej Palat in Tampa Bay, a player with similar production throughout his career. Even if Detroit does decide to throw in the towel and try a real rebuild, this deal is still palatable enough to move for a solid return.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to break the deal, while Craig Morgan of AZ Sports provided the financial breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Tomas Tatar

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After not being able to reach terms on an agreement, the Red Wings and winger Tomas Tatar had their arbitration hearing today.  Assuming they’re unable to reach a settlement before the arbitrator’s decision is rendered, what type of one year deal might Tatar be in for?

The Numbers

Oct 21, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Red Wings left wing Tomas Tatar (21) skates with the puck in the third period against Nashville Predators at Joe Louis Arena. Detroit won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY SportsTatar put up his third straight season with at least 20 goals and 45 points after collecting 25 goals and 21 assists in 81 games with Detroit in 2016-17.  His 25 tallies marked the second highest single-season total of his career.  He ranked third in team scoring in large part due to a strong finish to his year where he recorded 18 points (11-7-18) in March and April, spanning 21 contests.

The Red Wings gave Tatar a career high in ice time, as he logged 17:17 per night which was nearly three minutes a game more than 2015-16.  Despite that boost in playing time, his point-per-game average was no different between the two campaigns at 0.56 which is something that the team likely brought up during the hearing.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts within the range of submissions from both sides ($4.1MM by the team, $5.3MM by Tatar).

Chris Kreider (NY Rangers) – Stylistically speaking, Kreider plays a different way than Tatar but at the time his current deal was signed (last offseason), he was coming off a similar season statistically with a point-per-game average of 0.54 while logging nearly 16 minutes a night.  His cap hit checks in at $4.625MM but it’s worth noting that his deal bought out two RFA years.

Gustav Nyquist (Detroit) – Nyquist had a better platform season (54 points in 82 games) than Tatar did but their career numbers thus far are quite similar.  The Wings were able to lock Nyquist up a couple of years ago for four years at an AAV of$4.75MM and the deal only contained one RFA-eligible season which is the situation Tatar is in.

Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay) – His deal was just reached recently and could stand to impact Tatar’s contract.  Johnson is coming off a couple of injury-plagued seasons (conversely, Tatar has been healthy the last three) but has either equalled or surpassed Tatar’s points-per-game averages over the past four seasons while also playing a bigger role.  He checks in at $5MM and considering the impact he has, Detroit can make a compelling case that Tatar should check in at a lower cap charge, especially for just one year.

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency.

Projection

Most of the comparable contracts check in between 6.3% and 7% of the salary cap which, in 2017-18, increases to $75MM.  That provides a salary range of $4.725MM and $5.25MM.  It’s hard to imagine that Tatar will get close to his one-year asking price; not many do when it comes to arbitration awards.  The midpoint is $4.7MM which is close to the lower end of the range based on percentages and that’s the likelier outcome here as quite often deals will fall around the middle mark.  Based on that, I’d project the award to come in at $4.75MM.

What will be interesting is if talks can rekindle on a long-term pact.  Tatar has already turned down five years at $5MM which is pretty close to market value for a player who shifts between the first and second lines.  If Detroit adds a little bit more to their offer, it might be enough to get something done as it’s hard to envision Tatar landing considerably more on the open market next summer unless he has a career season in 2017-18.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Tatar, McNeil, Umberger, Tuulola

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Tomas Tatar’s arbitration hearing took place this morning, at the conclusion of which the arbitrator was given 48 hours to reach a decision on his salary for next season. Tatar cannot be awarded a two-year contract through arbitration since he will reach unrestricted free agency next year, but as Craig Custance of The Athletic points out could still work out a long-term deal with the Red Wings before the decision come in. We saw a similar situation play out in 2014 with P.K. Subban, who had his hearing with the Montreal Canadiens before signing an eight-year contract a day later.

Last week it was reported the two sides were still quite a bit away in terms of an agreement, with Tatar turning down a five-year $25MM contract. While they may have worked closer to a deal, a one-year decision through arbitration would likely spell the forward’s end in Detroit. Tatar would immediately hit the trade block if he hadn’t already, with many teams likely after him as a rental piece as the season went on. If Ken Holland and the Red Wings didn’t think they could get a deal done, they would have to look long and hard at any proposals for Tatar that would improve the club long-term.

  • The Syracuse Crunch have signed Reid McNeill to an AHL contract, taking him away from the St. Louis organization where he spent 2016-17 and adding him to the Tampa Bay Lightning affiliate. McNeill was a sixth-round pick of the Penguins in 2010, but has never been able to turn his size and defensive ability into a tryout at the NHL level. In 61 games last year split between the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and Chicago Wolves, he registered ten points.
  • Dallas Stars beat writer Mike Heika of SportsDay held a Q&A with readers and answered all sorts of questions regarding the Stars and their big offseason moves. One of them revolved around R.J. Umberger, who has signed a professional tryout with the team after a full year away from the game. Heika believes the invitation to camp is more of a friendly opportunity handed out by Umberger’s former coach in Ken Hitchcock than a real tryout for the Stars this season. If Umberger can show he’s healthy and rejuvenated, a successful camp under a familiar system could look good around the league. Now 35, Umberger could potentially sign a one-year contract with performance bonuses, though those kinds of deals come with risks as well.
  • The Montreal Canadiens have re-signed Yannick Veilleux on a two-way minor league deal. The contract will pay different amounts depending on whether Veilleux plays in the AHL or ECHL this season. Veilleux spent last year in the Montreal system bouncing between the two leagues, finding some success with St. John’s. Selected in the fourth round by the St. Louis Blues once upon a time, he’s still waiting for his first chance at the NHL level.
  • The Calgary Flames will watch Eetu Tuulola return to Finland for the upcoming season, leaving the Everett Silvertips where he had played in 2016-17. Tuulola was a sixth-round pick of the Flames in 2016 and tried his hand in the Canadian junior ranks with 31 points in 62 games. He’ll play for HPK in Finland’s Liiga next year, a professional team that can offer a bit more development opportunity than Everett.

Tomas Tatar Rejects Five-Year, $25MM Contract Offer

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According to Ansar Khan of MLive, Tomas Tatar and the Detroit Red Wings remain at an impasse in contract negotiations. The restricted free agent has turned down a five-year $25MM contract offer, instead wanting more term and an average salary closer to $6MM. Tatar’s arbitration hearing is on July 20th, an option that may have to be used should the two sides not agree in the next week. A one-year decision would send him to unrestricted free agency next season, something that would likely spark trade rumors immediately as Detroit would want something of value before he left town.

Tatar has a good case after scoring 25 goals and 46 points last season, showing he’s one of the most reliable offensive options on the Red Wings. While some question his all-around game, he is unquestionably a talented player who can drive possession and produce offensively. That kind of player, especially one that is just 26-years old is a much sought-after commodity on the open market and one that would drive a steep price should GM Ken Holland not be able to work out a long-term deal.

As Khan points out in his piece, Tyler Johnson, a player who was also scheduled to have an arbitration hearing on the 20th just agreed to a seven-year $35MM deal. While the two are comparable sizes, ages and have a similar level of experience Johnson has two major things going for him. He has already set a considerably higher peak of 72 points—Tatar’s career high is 56—and plays center full time, a more valued position. He got the term Tatar is after, but had to settle for a $5MM AAV.

Interestingly, Tatar comes with a recent resume of durability playing in 245 of a possible 246 games the last three seasons. If the team is truly interested in competing in the short term, they need Tatar on the wing providing offense, but it seems as though his biggest value may be on the market should he be given just a one year deal. Watching him walk away in a year for nothing would be foolish, but dedicating that kind of money to him when you have other salary cap issues all over the roster may be impossible. The Red Wings only have about $2.3MM in cap space before putting Johan Franzen on LTIR, and still another deal to finish with Andreas Athanasiou.

Detroit’s Uncertain Future

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The Detroit Red Wings missed the playoffs for the first time in 25 years in 2016-17. Not seeing the winged wheel on the ice is something deeply unfamiliar to many, and Detroit’s management is hoping that it won’t become a trend. However, there is definitely concern going forward as to what direction the team will head. While the team is technically going through a rebuild, effectively doing so can be quite difficult when you have so many aging players taking up spots and cap dollars. There are also questions as to whether any extended period of failure would be embraced by management, as fan-site Winging it in Motown wondered earlier this month. The strategy for GM Ken Holland is going to be complicated, as fans might need to grow accustomed to losing for a brief spell if the team is to strengthen its core.

Firstly, they will need to decide which players are part of the core and which are accessory pieces. There were good signs this off-season when Holland decided to sell assets, including Thomas Vanek, Tomas Jurco, Brendan Smith, and Steve Ott. This is a solid portent that there will be future moves, but there is room for doubt. For example, the 36 year-old Henrik Zetterberg has 4 years left on his contract at $6.083 MM, while the 33 year-old Frans Nielsen was just signed to his long-term deal, good for another 5 years at $5.25 MM. Justin Abdelkader and Darren Helm still have plenty left in the tank, but at $4.25 MM and $3.8 MM respectively, and years of term, is a full rebuild truly so feasible? Niklas Kronwall is another well-paid veteran at 36 years-old, and he has two more seasons under contract.

Then there is the goaltending situation. Detroit is paying over $9 million dollars in contracts to their two tenders, both of which have had their difficulties. Jimmy Howard had what could be considered a bounceback year, posting a .927 save percentage after the awful .906 dip the season before. The caveat – he only started 26 games. The other half of the duo, Petr Mrazek, received the bulk of the starts – 50 in all. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive to a .901 save percentage, as he struggled mightily behind his flightless team. To complicate matters, Howard has a modified No-Trade Clause, under which he can list the 10 teams he would accept a trade. The obvious decision seems to be that they will bank on Howard going forward and try to flip Mrazek to a team in need of help in the crease – he only has one year remaining at $4 MM before he needs his contract re-negotiated. If they are unable to do so, Mrazek would likely be snagged by Vegas in the expansion draft. But management obviously showed confidence in Mrazek’s abilities this season, sticking through him despite his impressively bad statistics. Perhaps Howard is the one on the way out of Motown. But if Mrazek flounders yet again, what does the pipeline hold?

The team as a whole has already allotted $67.09 MM to 18 players (two of whom are now on LTIR), and they need to sign RFAs Andreas Athanasiou, Xavier Ouellet, and Tomas Tatar. Only two players are coming off the books, the moderately paid forwards Joe Vitale and Drew Miller, either of whom could potentially re-sign. In terms of prospects, the talented winger Evgeny Svechnikov is the most promising potential addition. He posted 20 goals and 51 points in his rookie season with the Grand Rapids Griffins and impressed with his size. Anthony Mantha continues to be intriguing, and Athanasiou definitely has the talent to take another step forward. However, there isn’t a ton of help on the horizon in terms of defense. A top-flight prospect here would do wonders for the squad going forward. With 11 picks in this year’s draft, in what is Holland’s last contracted season as GM, decisions with incredible importance lie ahead. Will Hockeytown fully commit to a long-term rebuild, or will they make runs at competing in the relatively weak Atlantic division with a mix of aging and inexperienced players?

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