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Steven Stamkos

Snapshots: Blackhawks, Lightning, Vanek, Higgins

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The Blackhawks may no longer be in salary cap hell, but they are certainly thinner up front writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. With Andrew Shaw being dealt to Montreal, both Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen off to Carolina, and Andrew Ladd hitting free agency, the Hawks have a number of open spots to shore up. While Chicago can now collectively breathe under the repressive Cap that has had them selling off parts since the summer of 2010, the casualties have come in the way of losing skill players. Lazerus has the Blackhawks possibly bringing back Brian Campbell, who could carry a $2MM/yr cap hit. Meanwhile, the bottom six forwards would look very different than the pedigree most Hawks fans are accustomed to. Lazerus lists Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann as potential candidates to return, while naming P.A. Parenteau or Sam Gagner as possible options to add in free agency.

In other league news:

  • The Lightning have tendered qualifying offers to Yanni Gourde, Kristers Gudlevskis, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Tye McGinn, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Nikita Nesterov tweets Erik Eriendsson. In the meantime, general manager Steve Yzerman has a number of decisions to make as the free agency window opens on Friday. Steven Stamkos is still the top priority as teams are lining up to make their pitch. But the equally intriguing angle is what to do with goaltender Ben Bishop. Entering the final year of a contract with a $5.95MM cap hit, Bishop was reportedly working on contract specifics after the Flames were given permission to do so. That was scrapped as soon as the Flames acquired Brian Elliott from the Blues.
  • Jason Brough reports that both the Canucks and Rangers may have interest in free agent Thomas Vanek. Though Vanek would be a backup plan to the higher tier free agents, namely Milan Lucic and Loui Eriksson, he could be a decent pickup at a reasonable price for both teams seeking scoring help. Vanek had 41 points (18-23) and will see a much lower offer than the three-year/$19.5MM offer he received from Minnesota, who bought him out last week.
  • Elliotte Friedman tweets that Canucks winger Chris Higgins was placed on waivers for the purposes of being bought out. According to CapFriendly, the cap hit would be $833,333 through the 2017-18 season. CBS Sports listed Higgins as one of their buyout candidates, and the Vancouver Sun reported the Canucks actively shopping Higgins back in January. Higgins had 4 points (3-1) in 33 games last season.

Free Agent Profile: Steven Stamkos

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In the salary cap era, it is extremely rare that legitimate star players make it to the free agent market.  It’s also very rare that high end players become unrestricted free agents in the prime of their careers.  Both of these apply to Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos, making his potential entry into Friday’s opening of free agency the most highly awaited in quite some time.

Last season, Stamkos played in 77 games with the Lightning, scoring 36 goals, good for a tie for the 7th most in the NHL.  He also added 28 assists for a total of 64 points which was two shy of the team lead (Nikita Kucherov had 66).  Both of those represented drops from 2014-15, where he had 72 points (43-29-72) while playing all 82 contests.

Late in the year, Stamkos was diagnosed with blood clots which cost him the final few games of the regular season as well as all but Tampa Bay’s final postseason game, a loss to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins.  While he was able to return, there will still be some questions as to his long-term health; is this now behind him or will it have the potential to linger or recur over the course of a long-term contract?

There’s no denying that Stamkos is among the best goal scorers in the game today and in an era where goals are at a premium, that can only stand to help Stamkos and agent Don Meehan in their quest to secure a new contract.  Over the last 5 seasons, he has the second most goals in the NHL with 193, only behind Washington’s Alexander Ovechkin (224).  However, Ovechkin has played in 38 more games over that span; if you break their goal totals into a goals-per-game rate, they’re nearly identical with Ovechkin at 0.615 per game and Stamkos at 0.592.  Suffice it to say, he’s among the best at putting the puck in the net.

While Stamkos spent a big chunk of last year on the right wing, his natural position is center and that positional flexibility will certainly help his case as well.  However, he has also made it known that he sees himself as a center and would like to return to playing that position moving forward.

Potential Suitors

To quickly sum it up, anyone with around $10MM or more in cap space or close to that amount that could use a top line sniper.  If that sounds like just about every team in the league, it should, as that’s about how many will express some level of interest.

Buffalo is reportedly going to be “all in” when it comes to chasing Stamkos while Detroit now has the money to get into the bidding after shedding the retired Pavel Datsyuk’s contract over the weekend.  Toronto is also likely to try to lure Stamkos to his hometown while Tampa Bay is attempting to re-sign him as well.  Also, John Wawrow of AP reports that Boston and Vancouver expressed an interest in Stamkos over the weekend.

That’s only a shortlist of who will be courting Stamkos as well as more than half the league should make a pitch during the interview period between now and the opening of free agency on July 1st.

Expected Contract

We rated Stamkos as the top unrestricted free agent in our Top 50 list and have projected a max-term contract of eight years.  For that to happen, Stamkos must sign prior to the opening of free agency.

While we have him taking that deal with Tampa Bay, GM Steve Yzerman told TSN’s Frank Seravelli that a sign-and-trade option to get Stamkos his eight years while getting an asset in return is also a possibility.  We think he’ll take $9MM per year – less than he could get on the open market – to stick with the Lightning but if he does get to market, a cap hit in the double digit millions per year is a very realistic possibility.

Snapshots: Stamkos, Shattenkirk, Bruins, Canucks, Coyotes, Datsyuk

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Saturday is shaping up to be an important day in the Steven Stamkos saga, writes TSN’s Frank Seravelli.  The interview period with pending unrestricted free agents kicks off on Saturday, meaning that the Lightning have less than 48 hours left of exclusive negotiating rights with their captain.  As a result, GM Steve Yzerman may have to deliver his best offer to Stamkos by Friday before other teams have an opportunity to make their pitch.

Other news and notes around the league:

Snapshots: Stamkos, 3rd Pick, Flames, Hamhuis

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TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (transcription via Chris Nichols of Today’s Slapshot) that the Sabres are going “absolutely all in” for Tampa Bay forward Steven Stamkos should he hit the market.  He hears that the speculation is that they may be willing to go upwards of $12MM per season to get a deal done.  For comparison, the highest current cap hits in the NHL are Chicago forwards Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • Also from Dreger, the Blue Jackets are still listening to offers for the third overall pick in Friday’s NHL Entry Draft. He adds that GM Jarmo Kekalainen would like to attach a sizable contract, such as Scott Hartnell, who has three years left on his contract at $4.75MM per year, to any discussion to free up some cap space.
  • The asking price for Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is quite high. Eric Francis of the Calgary Sun reports that Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford is asking for the Flames’ first round pick (sixth overall) in this Friday’s draft, a price that is too steep for Calgary’s liking.  Francis suggests that the Flames would amenable to dealing one of their second round picks and a prospect to secure the services of the 31 year old netminder.  TSN’s Bob McKenzie suggests Tampa Bay G Ben Bishop could be another target for Calgary.
  • Vancouver GM Jim Benning acknowledged that the team is still trying to figure out the situation for pending UFA defenseman Dan Hamhuis, reports Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province. The team would open to trading his negotiating rights but have yet to receive an offer for them.

Datsyuk Announces Retirement From NHL

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As expected from yesterday’s news, Detroit Red Wings center Pavel Datsyuk officially announced his retirement from the NHL today at a press conference in suburban Detroit. During the brief press conference, Pierre LeBrun tweeted that Datsyuk made the decision because of his family. Yahoo’s Nick Cotsonika tweets that Datsyuk will play in the KHL next season. Red Wings beat writer Ansar Khan tweets that the Wings will be making a statement at 2pm EST at the Joe Louis Arena.

The 38-year-old has been rumored for some time to walk away from the NHL. In April, an interview with Detroit Free Press writer Mitch Albom shed light on Datsyuk wanting to spend more time with his daughter in Russia. As written about at length by many analysts, the $7.5MM cap hit remains for the Red Wings due to Datsyuk extending his contract at the age of 35. Though the AAV was $7.5MM, Datsyuk benefitted from a front loaded contract where he made $10.5MM in 2014-2015, $7MM in 2015-2016, and was slated to make $5.5MM in 2016-2017. Datsyuk’s agent Dan Milstein pointed out, however, that Datsyuk only made $15MM in the first two years of his contract because he declined a $2MM bonus this past February. Milstein also indicated that the Red Wings would have no problem trading the contract away.

Regardless, Datsyuk’s decision puts the Red Wings in a lurch heading into the 2016-2017 season. Even if the Red Wings successfully move the contract, it will most likely include a high draft pick or prospects. Forwards Tomas Jurco and Teemu Pulkkinen were two names floated as potential trade bait. Should the Red Wings opt to take the hit, it will most certainly restrict them from trying to land any potential free agents. The Wings have been linked with Alexander Radulov, and more recently, Steven Stamkos, should he hit the market.

 

Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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The 2015-2016 Tampa Bay Lightning lost in seven games to the eventual Stanley Cup Champions Pittsburgh Penguins in the Eastern Conference Final. Their performance followed up a Finals appearance last year where they lost in six games to the Chicago Blackhawks. The Lightning’s record implies that no drastic moves are necessary, but with star forward Steven Stamkos still unsigned, the team risks losing arguably their best player to free agency.

Cap Space: $18,849,999 (according to CapFriendly)

Key UFAs: F Steven Stamkos. Stamkos is coming off a 36G and 64P season but missed all but one playoff game due to blood clots. While he hasn’t posted more than a point-per-game since 2013-2014, Stamkos remains one of the most dominant young forwards in the game. That being said, the Lightning were within one game of the Stanley Cup Finals without him, so they could seemingly let him walk without suffering much setback.

Other UFAs: D Mattias Ohlund, F Mike Blunden, F Jonathan Marchessault, D Matt Taormina.

Key RFAs: F Alex Killorn and F Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov scored 30G and 66P this year while adding another 19P in the playoffs. He is set for a significant raise after finishing off his entry level contract. Killorn potted 14G and 40P in the regular season before posting 13P in the playoffs. He is coming off of a deal worth $2.55MM AAV and is also looking for a raise. The Lightning will have to decide whether to offer both players bridge contracts or lock them into long-term deals. They will also have to be wary of next year’s RFAs Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Andrei Vasilevskiy seeking significant raises.

Other RFAs: F J.T. Brown, F Vladislav Namestnikov, F Nikita Nesterov.

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