For everyone projecting a substantial salary cap increase for next season, commissioner Gary Bettman has a message for you: “we’ll see.” That’s what the executive told gathered media including Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff today at the board of governors meeting, explaining that the league is currently projecting a $70MM escrow balance at the end of the season. If that isn’t paid off in full by the players (through increased hockey-related revenue) the salary cap will be increased by just $1MM.
There has been some rumbling about a potential compromise with the NHLPA to increase it by a little over the next few seasons, instead of waiting for it to spike once the escrow balance is paid, but Bettman wouldn’t comment on that possibility.
That means the most likely outcome at this point is an $83.5MM cap ceiling for 2023-24. A much larger increase would follow in 2024-25 as that $70MM of debt would surely be paid off. Teams handing out long-term extensions or preparing for free agent negotiations will have to pinch a few extra pennies for a little while longer.
The interesting outcome that this could create is a number of free agents agreeing to one-year deals next offseason, knowing for certain that the cap would raise the following year. Restricted free agents may agree to more qualifying offers or go through the arbitration process instead of locking into multi-year bridge deals, and veterans could look to play out a single season before cashing in again when teams have some extra money to spend.
Either way, it appears as though true respite for the cap-strapped teams may still be a little way down the road.