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Trade Candidates: Radim Vrbata

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With the trade deadline now just days away, we’re wrapping up our profiles of several players whose names are still on the trade block and are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

The Arizona Coyotes are 22-32-7 for 51 points, good enough for last place in the Pacific Division and second from the bottom in the NHL. They are in the bottom five in the league in both goals for and goals against, giving them a 29th-ranked -48 goal differential. The team is in a complete rebuild and has needs at every position. GM John Chayka has already dealt away young defenseman Michael Stone and just last night career-Coyote center Martin Hanzal.

So anyone who notices that the Coyotes’ top scorer is 35 years old and on a one-year, $1MM deal is right to assume that he is also on his way out of town. Radim Vrbata has returned to Arizona with a bang this season, leading a club that has been desperate for goals with a team-high 31 assists and 46 points and is second only to Hanzal with 15 goals and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in power play production. For a guy past his prime who scored only 27 points last season, Vrbata has had an excellent 2016-17 campaign and, like his other productive veteran teammates, has probably earned himself a ticket out of town.

Contract

Vrbata signed a one-year deal with Arizona this summer that carries $1MM base salary. However, there are some tricky bonus features to it, especially for contenders who are tight against the cap. Vrbata can earn an additional $2.25MM in performance bonuses, and in fact has already met several benchmarks. Vrbata is already owed $500K for playing in 30 games and another $500K for scoring more than 40 points. The remaining $1.25MM is tied to postseason performance, which he is guaranteed to miss out on if he remains with the Coyotes but would almost surely cash in on if traded to a contender. If Vrbata is traded, the new team will have to account for the salary cap repercussions beyond his $1MM cap hit – pro-rated to about $225K by Wednesday’s deadline – for the remainder of the year.

2016-17

The myth surrounding Vrbata has always been that he doesn’t perform outside of Arizona. Just a quick look at his career numbers shows that is untrue. Vrbata has had strong seasons, dating all the way back to the beginning of career, in Colorado, Chicago, and most recently Vancouver. However, there is no doubt that he has enjoyed the majority of his best seasons with the Coyotes. After struggling in 2015-16, the second year of a two-year deal with the Canucks, Vrbata returned home to the desert on a one-year deal in search of comeback season. He certainly found it, as his 46 points through 61 games put him on pace to come close to his career-high 63 point total from two years ago. Yet, he’s accomplished this on one of the worst teams in the league. What leaves many teams deep in thought is whether that scoring would continue on a superior team in contention for a title or whether it is a product of the situation and system.

Season Stats

61 GP: 15 goals, 31 assists, 46 points, -14 rating, 186 shots, 17:01 ATOI

Suitors

After their three biggest competitors in the Atlantic Division acquired help today, many have begun to doubt whether the Boston Bruins can hold true to their plan to stand pat at the Trade Deadline and not risk losing picks or prospects for no reason as they did last year. Count the Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont as one of those proponents, and he believes that Vrbata would be the perfect fit for the Bruins to add another scoring threat, specifically with Ryan Spooner and Frank Vatrano on the team’s third line, now that coach Bruce Cassidy has his more offensive-minded system in place. Despite the high prices right now, Dupont speculates that a second-round selection and another pick or prospect could get the job done. The Bruins are also one of only a few contenders that doesn’t have to worry much about the cap implications of acquiring Vrbata.

However, if the price for Vrbata is what Dupont suggests it may be, teams will worry about Vrbata’s cap hit and outside-Arizona consistency later. As more and more teams make additions, other will grow more interested in one of the top scoring threats on the market. Name a contender, and they will have likely put a call in to Chayka by Wednesday’s deadline, whether it be the Washington Capitals, who could use some more speed; the Pittsburgh Penguins or Columbus Blue Jackets, who both need some depth; the San Jose Sharks, who are still sorting out their top lines; or even the Chicago Blackhawks, who seem to always be in the mix and have history with Vrbata.

Likelihood Of A Trade

After moving on from Hanzal and Stone, both of whom are younger and have spent more time with the organization in recent years, it would be odd if the Coyotes didn’t part ways with Vrbata. Besides, there is nothing stopping them from re-signing him this summer if he wants, and Vrbata seems to be one of the few NHL players, along with teammate Shane Doan, who really enjoy playing in Arizona. Despite their immense depth in prospects, the Coyotes still have needs throughout the lineup and are in no position to hold on to trade-able assets for no reason. This team is still in full rebuild mode and will almost surely take whatever picks and prospects they can get for Vrbata, a fitting end to a rewarding one-year deal in 2016-17.

Steve Yzerman Explains Ben Bishop Trade

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Yesterday a shockwave went through the NHL world when the Tampa Bay Lightning decided to trade pending free agent netminder Ben Bishop to the Los Angeles Kings. Almost no one understood it at the time, as the Kings had just gotten Jonathan Quick back from injured reserve and looked set in net. Lightning GM Steve Yzerman met with the media today and explained a few things about the trade and where his franchise goes from here (video link via TSN).

I did talk to a team in the league about [Bishop] prior to the draft last year, but for whatever reason that didn’t come to fruition.

The biggest reason to make the move now, ultimately is that we’re concerned with the salary cap for next year. With what we have in some performance bonuses for our younger players we felt we’re going to be squeezed next year with the cap. We felt the need to do this right now to give ourselves as much cap space [as possible] for next year.

It’s true, the Lightning do have bonuses that will kick in this season and should they not have the cap room to pay them, would be penalized next season. By trading Bishop they have opened up a good amount in order to not have any carry over to next year, when they’ll have to re-sign Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson among others.

While it had been speculated that as many as five teams could have had interest in Bishop to help them down the stretch and into the playoffs, Yzerman relates that the appetite wasn’t quite so ravenous around the league.

When I decided to get the deal done yesterday, that was the deal that made the most sense and to be honest with you was the only option I had. My options were to make this deal with LA or to sit tight and go through with the season.

If that’s true and there was no interest from anywhere else in the league, then Yzerman did well to clear the cap space and at least receive a prospect in the form of Erik Cernak. While Bishop would have undoubtedly helped the Lightning in their playoff push—one that he assures is still the goal of the team this season—the cost of the bonus penalties on the squad going forward would have been far greater than his impact. In getting Budaj in return, he at least addressed the issue of insurance for a Andrei Vasilevskiy injury should the team make it to the post-season.

Yzerman also spoke about Steven Stamkos and his potential return this year. Stamkos has been out November 15th and has recently begun skating again on his own. Yzerman admits that it’s not a guarantee, but that he’s progressing well. A healthy Stamkos would definitely give the team a boost as they sit just six points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Snapshots: Big Read, Miller, Suspensions

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If you’ve ever wondered how deadline deals come together now that front offices have to go through so many obstacles to make a trade, you’re in luck. Salary caps, international scouting and forced parity are all discussed in Sportsnet’s latest “Big Read” by Gare Joyce. In a piece that goes in detail with two GMs, a scout, an agent and NHL lawyer, fans are brought into a world that is usually closed off to the general public.

I’ve never made or even tried to make a deal face-to-face with another GM. The idea that it’s something that we’ve kicked around at GMs’ meetings or talked about at games—it just doesn’t happen…when you’re making the call, just by making it, you’re telling another GM, ‘I don’t think your team is going to make the playoffs.’

The story reveals some interesting tidbits, like how many deadline deals are actually agreed to in principal weeks prior, only to not be put through to give the buyer some time to make sure his team is still in the hunt come March 1st. All these people will be extremely busy over the next few days, as teams finalize their rosters for the stretch run.

  • Larry Brooks of the New York Post reveals that almost every discussion the New York Rangers are in start with some mention of J.T. Miller—which is a non-starter unless a superstar is involved. At just 23-years old, Miller is already the leading scorer on a very deep New York Rangers team and is on the cusp of becoming a household name in the NHL. Playing on both special teams and dominating at even strength, the Rangers would be crazy to deal him.
  • The AHL has handed down a pair of suspensions, to Greger Hanson and Kurtis Gabriel. Binghamton Senators forward Hanson sent Toronto Marlies player Brett Findlay head first into the boards on Friday, resulting in a boarding penalty and a two-game suspension. Hanson has spent most of the season in the ECHL, and is actually on his fourth minor league team of the year. Gabriel has been suspended indefinitely pending a review of the brawl that continued off the ice on Saturday between the Iowa Wild and Chicago Wolves. Gabriel—who ended up knocked out from a devastating punch—was the one who incited the fight as both players were heading to their respective dressing rooms.

Trade Candidates: Matt Duchene

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A wildly disappointing 2016-17 campaign in Colorado has led to rampant speculation that Avalanche GM Joe Sakic is ready to tear down a roster he has had a big hand in both assembling and keeping together. Should he decide to pull the trigger, Sakic’s most valuable and marketable asset is 26-year-old center Matt Duchene. In seven full NHL seasons, Duchene has tallied 20 or more goals five times and with 16 through 54 contests so far this season, it appears likely he’s well on his way 20 goals yet again. Top-six pivots still squarely in their prime and with multiple years of contractual control remaining are all but impossible to acquire which presents Sakic with a unique opportunity to jump start the reconstruction of the Avalanche franchise if he can squeeze fair value from an interested suitor.

Contract

Part of what makes Duchene a valuable commodity, besides his high skill level and past performance of course, is the two seasons remaining on his contract which call for a cap charge of $6MM per season. Compared to what comparable free agent talent costs on the open market, Duchene is a relative bargain at his price.

2016-17

While it’s been a tough season all around in Denver, on an individual level Duchene is in the midst of another solid season offensively with 16 goals and 36 points in 54 games. Prorated over a full 82-game schedule, he would be on pace for a 24-goal, 55-point campaign. Given the lack of offensive production around him in Colorado (the Avalanche are currently last in the NHL in scoring, averaging fewer than two goals per game) it’s easy to project better numbers elsewhere surrounded by better talent.

Season Stats

54 GP, 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 points, -20 plus/minus, 6 PIM, 124 SOG

Suitors

While any team in the league would love to add a player of Duchene’s caliber, a few stand out due to possessing the assets Colorado would want in return in addition to the need for a high end, top-six forward. Carolina boasts several talented young blue liners they could use to entice Colorado while Duchene would give the Hurricanes a skilled pivot to slot ahead of Jordan Staal, who is best suited for third line duty.

Ottawa, as mentioned earlier, absolutely could use another top-six forward and have the young assets required to make a deal work but at this point don’t appear interested at the current price tag.

Nashville has also been listed as a potential destination with either Mattias Ekholm or Ryan Ellis headlining a return package, but after dealing Seth Jones last year would the Predators wish to deplete their defense corps further to bolster their offensive attack?

Likelihood of a Trade

Blockbuster deals of this nature are difficult to execute in-season. With nearly every postseason contender at or near the salary cap ceiling, acquiring a player with a $6MM cap charge would generally either require a team to send an expensive contract back in return or to retain salary to facilitate a trade. That’s why a majority of major moves are completed in the offseason when salary cap concerns are lessened with clubs allowed to exceed the cap ceiling by 10%. More teams will realistically be able to join the bidding which should serve to increase the return Colorado can expect. It’s likely Colorado will pull of a blockbuster deal with Duchene a strong possibility to be moved, but the best guess is a deal will wait until summer.

Lightning Notes: Deadline, Playoffs, Stamkos

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Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times caught up with Lightning GM Steve Yzerman for his latest column and discussed things from expiring contracts to injured players. When broaching the subject of the trade deadline and the possibility of moving upcoming free agents like Ben Bishop and Brian Boyle, Yzerman wasn’t willing to give up on his squad.

We’re competing for a playoff spot so if I’m going to move people.. I’m not just giving people away here. If it makes sense, I’ll do it. If it doesn’t make sense, I’m not. It’s not a firesale.

That’s a common opinion among GMs across the league, who are finding the deadline this year extremely difficult. The looming expansion draft is changing the way teams operate this year, and as Yzerman notes “protection issues, that is a factor in acquiring and trading players.” Indeed, adding a player who might have to be left exposed is just another complication to a deadline that has become more and more difficult since the salary cap debuted.

  • The other thing to note about the Tampa Bay deadline is that playoff spot that Yzerman mentions. Even though the team is just two games over .500 and four points out of last place in the entire Eastern Conference, he’s right when he says they’re still in a playoff race. The Atlantic division in particular is still wide open, with only 12 points separating first and last place. The Lightning find themselves just five points out of the final wildcard spot, and six out of third in the Atlantic.
  • Yzerman is still operating as if Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan will return at some point this season, which would greatly affect their salary cap situation. If the two can get back though, they’ll be a bigger addition than any trade deadline acquisition. Stamkos has reportedly begun some light skating, and is still on his 4-6 month timeline—that leaves much speculation though, as four months would be mid-March and six would be the end of the playoffs.
  • Even if a firesale isn’t happening, the Lightning will have some tough decisions up front. As we’ve detailed before, they have an expansion draft crunch and a salary situation that will make for a tough summer. With Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Jonathan Drouin all needing new deals, it looks like at least one of their forwards will need to be shipped out. Alex Killorn looks like a natural possibility, but it may have to be the diminutive Johnson depending on the offers that come in.

Deadline Depth May Already Be In Toronto

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For teams around the league looking at depth additions down the stretch, big bodies, playoff experience and penalty killing ability are often in high demand. The Maple Leafs, who find themselves in the thick of a playoff race much earlier than expected in their rebuild, may have to look no further than their AHL squad to find some bottom-six depth if injuries should come into play.

The team has recently lost Mitch Marner for an indefinite period, and have had an almost clean bill of health all season. If they find themselves in a position to add some of that NHL experience, their Marlies team in the AHL already has a few names that might be familiar. Brooks Laich, Colin Greening and Milan Michalek have been with the minor league squad for almost the entire season, and though their goal-scoring days might be behind them, they could still provide a boost in a bottom-six role.

Laich was acquired from the Washington Capitals last season in a salary dump, and has six points in 21 games for the Marlies this season. He’s taken on a leadership role among the young team, understanding that the development of prospects is more important to the club than his ice time. He has lost a step from his 50+ point days in Washington, but has the work-ethic and defensive responsibility to help a fourth line somewhere. His versatility at center and wing is important to consider, as is the fact that he’s an unrestricted free agent this summer. In a recent piece from Joshua Kloke of The Athletic (subscription required), he quotes Laich as wanting to “pursue a Stanley Cup somewhere else” if he’s not in the Leafs NHL plans.

Michalek is a former 30-goal scorer that actually waived his no-trade clause to come to Toronto in last season’s Dion Phaneuf trade. He started the year with the NHL club, but was waived and sent down early on because of his cap-hit and the surplus of wingers on the Leafs. He’s been injured for much of the AHL season, but if he could get back to full health it’s an interesting depth option should a team need a bottom-six winger. Michalek has had a lot of penalty killing success in his career, even scoring nine short handed goals in his career.

Greening is the youngest of the trio at only 30 years old, but also has the least playoff experience. He’s also been the biggest physical presence in the past, recording over 200 hits for the Senators back in 2013-14. Another expiring contract, Greening wouldn’t cost the Leafs or an acquiring team very much for the last couple of months but would give them a big body to put on the fourth line should they need it.

Obviously none of these players are game-changers or even excellent options for an NHL squad. But with teams using draft pick and prospect currency to add role players at the deadline each year, the Maple Leafs might be in an enviable position down the stretch. As we’ve seen recently with the Senators, who have lost Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan and Tommy Wingels in the past two days, depth is an important asset.

With their glut of young wing prospects to step into a scoring role should they lose any other top forwards, they have built some solid depth in the bottom six by just accepting bad contracts in their previous deals. While the salary cap has evened out the playing field somewhat between the rich and poor teams, the Maple Leafs have smartly used their financial muscle over the past few years in the few places that are still possible.

Maple Leafs Reportedly Place Three Players On LTIR

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According to James Mirtle of The Athletic and Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the Toronto Maple Leafs have placed Nathan Horton, Joffrey Lupul, and Stephane Robidas on Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR).

Johnston reports that the move happened quietly earlier this season. None of those three players are expected to play in the NHL again but account for $13.55MM in salary cap hits. Because the Maple Leafs have been close to the cap all year, they will receive approximately $13.39MM in extra cap space, according to Cap Friendly.

Despite gaining the extra cap space, Maple Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello will still need to be cautious about any acquisitions. Placing a player (or three) on LTIR doesn’t remove them from the cap, it simply adds a commensurate amount on top of the cap ceiling for the team to spend. Technically speaking, the Maple Leafs will now be able to spend $86.39MM instead of $73MM. However, as Mirtle points out, this extra space cannot be used to cover rookie bonuses. Six young Maple Leafs currently have bonuses included in their contracts, accounting for an extra $5.75MM total. Seeing as the Maple Leafs only had $1.21MM in cap space at the start of the season, they’re going to be hit with carryover overages for the second straight year. Johnston suggests this encourages the Maple Leafs to “convert that LTIR room into something tangible.”

The Maple Leafs also have a $650K cap credit this season, after buying out Jared Cowen last summer.

Should the Maple Leafs lose the recently-injured Mitch Marner for a longer period of time, then the team could acquire a high end player (on an expiring contract) to replace him for the stretch drive.

Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re taking a closer look at each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

Many people, including everyone’s favorite PHR writer, considered the Nashville Predators to be a dark horse candidate to win the Stanley Cup in 2016-17. While we are still a few months out from seeing if that comes to fruition, at this point in time the team looks an awful lot like the same team it was last year. The addition of P.K. Subban and what many suspected would be the best puck-moving defense in the NHL has been hindered by long injury absences to both top pair defensemen. Ryan Johansen is performing well, but still not up to the level that he exhibited with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Scoring bumps by captain Mike Fisher, Viktor Arvidsson, and Colin Wilson have been counteracted by drop-offs from James Neal, Craig Smith, and Mattias Ekholm. Overall, the teams middling numbers in goals for and goals against are eerily similar to what they were in 2015-16.

If this team is, for all intents and purposes, the same team it was last year, that’s not a bad thing. The 2015-16 Predators clinched the first wild card spot in the Western Conference and upset the Pacific-winning Anaheim Ducks in the first round. They then lost to the eventual conference champion San Jose Sharks, but took them seven games, which is more than the St. Louis Blues could do in the championship round. It was the best postseason performance in franchise history. However, the current iteration of the Predators is sitting in the second wild card spot, trailing the Blues and trying to hold off the Los Angeles Kings, and is on pace to finish five points shy of last year’s mark. They got off to a slows start and have had to grind their way back into the conversation. Although the numbers are similar, this year’s team feels just a little off. After an impressive 2015-16 campaign, instead of shocking the league with a triumphant sequel, the Predators are not even guaranteed a playoff spot this year, despite playing nearly identical hockey.

As always, Nashville is lousy with salary cap space. GM David Poile is one of the best there is and has already shown a willingness to make moves with the recent acquisitions of Cody McLeod and Vernon Fiddler. If Poile believes that this team has what it takes to go farther than any Predators have gone before, expect him to put that space, a nearly-full collection of draft picks, and quite a bit of prospect capital to work as the Trade Deadline grows closer.

Record

27-21-8, 4th in the Central Division, 8th in the Western Conference

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

Current Cap Space: $13,756,773

Deadline Cap Space: $18,571,644

45/50 contracts, via CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2017: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NYR 6th, NSH 7th
2018: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

Just like when the Predators shipped Seth Jones to Columbus for Johansen last year, expect Poile to dangle some young defenseman in front of teams this month. Nashville has Subban, Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Ryan Ellis locked up long term. Do they really need Anthony Bitetto? Petter Granberg? Trevor Murphy? They could even offer up promising young blue liners like Alexandre Carrier, Dante Fabbro, or Samuel Girard for the right return. On the flip side, all of this talented prospect depth on defense could also allow them to move an Ellis or Ekholm if presented with a big-ticket offer. Normally a contender wouldn’t consider such a major move in-season, but this where the upcoming Expansion Draft comes into play. If the Predators want to protect their four star defensemen, as one would imagine they do, they can then only protect four forwards as well, potentially leaving big names like Arvidsson, Smith, and Wilson exposed. It also limits who Nashville can bring in at the deadline, as any player with term remaining on their contract changes the protection formula. However, by trading one of the defenseman and just protecting the three others, the Predators could then protect seven forwards, removing their top six and any additional acquisitions from harm’s way.

Players To Watch

D Anthony Bitetto, D Trevor Murphy, D Alexandre Carrier, F Pontus Aberg, F Miikka Salomaki

Team Needs

1)  Scoring Forward – The Predators simply aren’t putting the puck in the net enough. They need a forward who can score goals himself, help to create goals for the struggling second and third lines, and help out on the 17th-ranked power play. The top name (reportedly) on the market is Matt Duchene, and with Nashville’s wealth of defensive talent, they may actually be able to meet the Colorado Avalanche’s high asking price. Adding another center would also allow the Predators to move Calle Jarnkrok to his natural wing positions. Whether it’s a center or wing or a sniper, speedster, or power forward, Nashville will likely be in on anyone who can help with production up front. A talented scoring forward is really need one, two, and three for this team if there are multiple rental guys out there who they can grab without paying too much.

2) Defensive defenseman – As good as Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber have unexpectedly been for the Preds this season, neither really inspires much confidence as a playoff starter. Nor does Brad Hunt, the next man up, who was picked up off of waivers from St. Louis last month, but has yet to play. What Nashville needs is a veteran shutdown defenseman to eat up some postseason minutes and play responsible defensive hockey. Poile has also shown through his recent moves that he feels the team needs more grit and toughness. If the Predators are still rolling come March 1st and feel good about their playoff chances, this need could turn into a big acquisition. Otherwise, a nice depth player who presents an upgrade over their current #5-#7 defenders would still be helpful albeit more affordable and reasonable.

 

Deadline Primer: Detroit Red Wings

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With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re taking a closer look at each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

It’s been quite the purgatory for the Detroit Red Wings. Mike Ilitch, who transformed the Dead Wings into a four time Stanley Cup Champion, passed away on Friday. As if losing the owner who many current and former players considered to be a father figure wasn’t enough, the Wings 25-year playoff streak may end at a quarter century. Struggling to piece wins together, Detroit has a historically bad power play, a team besieged by injury, and a horrible return on investment from several players inked to expensive, long term deals.

For the first time since the early 90’s, the Red Wings are sellers. And yet, while it looks that the playoffs are slipping away, general manager Ken Holland may “stand pat” instead of selling off assets.

Record

22-24-10; 54 points. Last in the Atlantic; Last in the Eastern Conference.

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

Current Cap Space: $0 ($8.3MM with LTIR relief)
Deadline Cap Space: $0 ($8.3MM with LTIR relief)
46/50 contracts, via CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2017: ( 9 Total) DET 1st, DET 2nd, DET 3rd, TOR 3rd, DET 4th, DET 5th, DET 6th, FLA 6th, DET 7th
2018: 7 Total) DET 1st, DET 2nd, DET 3rd, DET 4th, DET 5th, DET 6th, DET 7th.

Trade Chips

Mar 29, 2016; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Detroit Red Wings forward <a rel=There are a number of players to choose from but topping the list is Thomas Vanek, who has been linked to the Chicago Blackhawks among other teams. Should he stay healthy (he’s currently battling an ankle injury), he could fetch some prospects or a draft pick. Mike Green has been another name, though he seems less likely to be moved as the Wings are trying to upgrade on the blue line–and he has been good for them this season. Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar were also mentioned, targets by the Chicago Blackhawks. Petr Mrazek, though it seems odd since he has struggled and was just signed to a deal in the offseason, could also be shopped. Finally, Brendan Smith, in the final year of a contract, could be moved as well.

Team Needs

1) #1 defenseman. Good luck. Almost every team in the NHL seeks that top pair defenseman, the Red Wings truly haven’t had one since Nick Lidstrom retired. Worse, their young defensemen have regressed while the veterans are broken down versions of their once steady selves (Niklas Kronwall comes to mind). The problem in getting the top pairing defenseman they seek is two fold. First, only a young player with team control could garner the top d-man, be it Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin, or Andreas Athanasiou. But those are players the Red Wings aren’t willing to give up. Second, the salary cap situation is a mess being that Holland has handed out expensive, long-term contracts to players like Justin Abdelkader, who hasn’t scored a goal since November. To add and retain a top pair defenseman, a team needs salary cap space. The Wings are in trouble for years to come unless they can shed those contracts. Until the Red Wings fix the blue line, their slide will continue and only get worse.

2) An elite, generational player. In all of the seasons for the Red Wings to fall off, it would be the season where there isn’t a clear cut one and two option. Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine were all clear cut options in the last two drafts. Now? While Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier, and Tim Liljegren are all great options, scouts are having a hard time agreeing on a clear cut favorite. Holland could trade draft picks and players to go after former top picks, like Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon or Gabriel Landeskog, but that seems pretty far fetched. Plus, Holland has been gun shy during the Cap era when it comes to trades. But this year’s draft is not as certain as in previous seasons, and that doesn’t bode well for a team who desperately needs a top tier talent to get back on the right track. Larkin, Mantha, and Athanasiou are great starts as building blocks, but they are at least one, if not two, generational players away from getting back to the top of the hockey world again.

Trade Candidates: Mathieu Perreault

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

Rarely do you see a player who just signed a long-term extension get traded before that extension even kicks in, but that very well could be the case with Mathieu Perreault and the Winnipeg Jets. Entering the final season of his three-year, $9MM deal, Perreault inked a big four-year extension this summer. However, the team may have erred in not first considering the possibility of an Expansion Draft this off-season, and is facing a very real possibility that if they don’t move the veteran center, they could lose him for nothing. The Jets appear poised to protect four defenseman – Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom, Jacob Trouba, and Tyler Myers – leaving just four forward spots available, which will almost definitely go to Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, and Adam Lowry. TSN was the first to report the high likelihood of a Perrault trade, and he remains on their “Trade Bait List“. But is there a market for his services in-season?

Contract

Perreault will enter the first year of a four-year, $16.5MM extension in 2017-18. Currently, he is in the final year of his previous three-year, $9MM deal. That annual $3MM cap hit will be pro-rated to under $900K at the Trade Deadline, but will then jump back up to $4.125MM for the next four seasons.

2016-17

Hurting Perreault’s “tradability” in 2016-17 is a noticeable drop-off in production. If the Jets had chosen to trade the play-making pivot last spring, they would have brought in quite the haul in draft capital. Perreault had back-to-back 41-point seasons to begin his tenure in Winnipeg and was in the midst of potentially the best season of his career with career highs in assists, power play points, and ice time. He also had a year remaining on his deal at an affordable cap hit. This season? Not so much. Perreault now carries a four years at $4.25MM and does not have the stats to back up the cost. In between missing time with injuries this season, Perreault has registered just 17 points in 40 games, which may as well be canceled out by his career-worst -17 rating. However, Perreault is still considered a high-end play-maker and a power play specialist, and his cap hit at his previous numbers is more than tolerable. If Perreault can pick up his play down the stretch and improve on a dismal performance so far, interest will heat up in no time.

Season Stats

40 GP, 4 goal, 13 assists, 17 points, -17 rating, 83 shots, 15:31 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Adding players with term on their contract is easier said than done this season. With the Expansion Draft weighing on everyone’s decisions this deadline season, no one is going to pay a lot for a player they then stand to lose for nothing if he doesn’t fit into their protection scheme. Perreault could prove to be a difficult addition for many teams.

The New York Islanders have really felt the loss of center Frans Nielsen this season and desperately need some depth at center. They also have some flexibility in the expansion process and have the salary cap space to accommodate his cap hit. Perrault down the middle behind John Tavares would be quite an upgrade over Casey Cizikas and Alan Quine this year and in the future.

If the Montreal Canadiens miss out on their rumored top target of Martin Hanzal and don’t want to pony up for Matt Duchene, they could come calling for Perreault. With Tomas Plekanec and David Desharnais showing clear signs of decline, the Habs are desperate for depth down the middle going forward. Montreal is reportedly “all in” at the Trade Deadline, so a move to bring in a big-time center would come with no surprise, though the salary cap implications would need to be closely monitored.

Another strong candidate, though a Western Conference foe, is the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings are perusing the center market as well, and could use depth behind Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter. Cap space is not as big an issue for L.A. who could really solidify their top nine by adding Perreault to the mix.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has shown a willingness to make big moves, especially when the pressure is on, and there is no greater pressure than potentially losing a key player for nothing in the Expansion Draft. However, that same draft makes moving a long-term player like Perreault much more difficult than moving an impending free agent. As the Jets sink further and further into the basement of the Western Conference, the more likely it will become that Cheveldayoff stops working on ways to keep Perreault and starts looking for ways to trade him. The difficulty in doing so makes this move far from a sure thing though.

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