Salary Cap

Carolina Lacking Roster Flexibility In 2017-18

September 4, 2017 at 7:42 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

With the start of the 2017-18 season just a month away, teams are starting to entertain some options to fill out their rosters. PTO season is in full swing, several teams have made recent free agent signings with more surely to come, and even trade whispers have picked up someone. One team not expected to join the late off-season excitement are the Carolina Hurricanes. With a cap hit of $57.8MM, more than $17MM below the salary cap, the Hurricanes have more than enough space to work with. In fact, Carolina has the third lowest payroll in the league. The ’Canes have plenty of cap flexibility, but what they lack is roster flexibility.

The NHL imposes limits on each and every roster. Of course, the active roster is held to just 23 players, but the issue facing the Hurricanes is instead the 50-contract limit. Each squad is only allowed to have 50 players at a time signed to one-way and two-way NHL contracts; it’s a mark that few teams approach. Yet, Carolina is already committed to a league-high 49 players for next season. The team has added Scott Darling, Justin Williams, Marcus Kruger, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Josh Jooris, and Brenden Kichton to the mix this summer, without losing any notable names. With those new additions, the Hurricanes hope to build upon their surprising success in 2016-17 and use their impressive depth and youthful energy to reach the postseason this season. With those aspirations, GM Ron Francis and company will surely want to leave some space for a possible trade acquisition if the team is in position for a playoff run. While trades, especially in-season, more often than not include players going both ways, all other teams are held to the same limits as Carolina and won’t be willing to take on a handful of contracts just to accommodate the ’Canes roster restraints. The team has to be careful not to back themselves into a corner.

For that reason, Carolina will likely march toward the season without making any further moves. That won’t stop the rumors of their interest in Colorado’s Matt Duchene to stop, particularly with Duchene pushing for a resolution in prior to puck drop, but it seems more likely that the Hurricanes stand pat in the coming weeks. With little flexibility as is, adding another player by any means could put Carolina in a hard-to-manage roster spot that could be even harder to get out of.

Detroit Red Wings Still A Possibility For Thomas Vanek

August 29, 2017 at 11:41 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

We’ve heard it all summer, but Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press reports that the Red Wings are still in contact with Thomas Vanek about a potential return. Vanek’s agent Steve Bartlett told St. James that the team remains in the “possibility range” though other teams have increased interest recently. The team will likely have to make a roster move of some sort to get under the salary cap if Andreas Athanasiou does eventually sign—something that many of our readers doubt at this point—and would need to work even harder to fit Vanek in.

Vanek remains one of the more inexplicable free agent cases this summer, still without a job despite scoring 48 points in 68 games last season. His defense and lack of foot speed is clearly a sticking point, but many teams could use his offensive punch in various situations. The fact that he remains one of the better shootout specialists in the league is just a bonus, but one that can be worth real points in the standings.

If Vanek did return to Detroit, you’d have to expect he would be a trade candidate at the deadline again. With the Red Wings unlikely to really compete for a Stanley Cup, Vanek could net them another draft pick this year. As we’ve discussed previously, Vanek has no Olympic motivation since Austria did not qualify for the tournament last summer.

The Oldest NHL Rosters, Looking Forward

August 19, 2017 at 3:58 pm CDT | by Seth Lawrence 4 Comments

The average age of a team is a stat which gets thrown around rarely, but it can be quite telling when it comes to salary cap planning and drafting. The youngest teams tend to have exceptionally talented stars under the age of 25 (Oilers, Blue Jackets), or find themselves out of contention entirely, banking on the rebuilding process (Arizona, Colorado). At the opposite end of the spectrum are the most aged teams, some past their windows of contention and almost all struggling with an identity crisis. However, there are outliers in the group – for instance, Florida is the 5th oldest team at present, while most of the top talent is still in their primes. Still, the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Los Angeles Kings all have Father Time looming ominously above their franchises. All of these teams could re-structure themselves and find themselves back on the right track, if their drafting improves and their general managers cut loose harmful contracts while able.

Ottawa Senators

The most recently successful of the three, Ottawa fans likely aren’t expecting another Conference Finals finish. The team lost Marc Methot in expansion, and their largest move in the off-season was the signing of 35-year-old Johnny Oduya. With an average age of 29.73, they should be see the effects of age start to impact their performance. Although 36 year-old Craig Anderson was pivotal in their 2016-17 success, he has one year remaining on his contract and Marcus Hogberg will be looking for an opening in the mid-term future. If Anderson’s workload drastically increases, he could find difficulty in maintaining his above average numbers, and that could spell trouble. By re-signing the steady Mike Condon, however, they at least alleviated that concern.

The team had a chance to unload 30 year-old Bobby Ryan to Vegas, but opted against it. They’ll now have his contract on the books until he’s 35. 36 year-old Alex Burrows has two years remaining on his deal, while 32 year-old Clarke MacArthur has three. 32 year-old defenseman Dion Phaneuf has hard mileage on him with his physical style of play, and has four years remaining on his deal. Outside of Colin White, Cody Ceci, and Fredrik Claesson, everyone on the roster is over the age of 25. If Logan Brown pans out, he should go a long way in rejuvenating the forward corps. Filip Chlapik of Charlottestown is certainly no slouch either. On the defensive side, Thomas Chabot has the talent to make a significant impact, but there’s a logjam of older veterans in his way. While Ottawa obviously doesn’t need to entertain a full rebuild, they need to allow their prospects a chance to make the NHL squad and embrace a youth infusion. Signing the Oduyas of the world only prolongs that necessity.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings have paid out far too much money to mediocre talent, and it has been death by a thousand papercuts for Ken Holland. The team now finds itself $3.9 MM over the salary ceiling, desperately trying to find a way to shed salary and slip under before year’s start while still signing RFA Andreas Athanasiou. This is another franchise who opted to go with an established veteran on the backend this summer, Trevor Daley (33), when the team was in desperate need of younger legs. The team finds itself second oldest league-wide, with an average age of 29.27. Part of the reason Detroit consistently finds itself among the oldest franchises in the league is that the organization places extreme value on fully maturing its prospects, usually in the AHL, before regularly dressing for the big club. This is a fine ideal, but it usually results in more expensive contracts for RFAs, as the totals posted by well-groomed players are usually superior to those of untested rookies. In the Salary Cap era, having productive players on ELCs is a huge contributor to success.

Henrik Zetterberg, 36, has four more years on his deal, and logs exceptionally taxing minutes. Johan Franzen, 37, is already burning cap space, as his LTIR will be on the books for another 3 seasons. Once the year begins, its not a great issue, but it complicates matters in the off-season. Frans Nielsen, 33, is no spring chicken himself and also takes on greater responsibility in Detroit than he ever did in Long Island. With 5 years remaining on his deal, it begs the question of whether he will be performing at a Selke-caliber when he’s turning 38. Only Xavier Ouellet and Danny DeKeyser are under the age of 30 on defense, with Daley, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall, and Jonathan Ericsson all having no-trade clauses. The Wings have some enticing prospects on the horizon, but with so many immovable and long-term contracts, it will be difficult for them to find places on the team in the short-term. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha are both ready for larger roles, but true talents like Michael Rasmussen should get the opportunity to shine in a top-six role. Detroit is in no position to seriously compete, and perhaps it’s time to embrace the necessary partial rebuild. Trading some of the dead-weight contracts would be a solid start.

Los Angeles Kings

Los Angeles is only a few years removed from a Stanley Cup win, but it seems like ages past. They have the third-oldest roster on paper at the moment, with an average age of 29.14. The Kings don’t actually have any players over the age of 35, so in that sense, they’ve avoided serious headaches. Marian Gaborik (35) and Mike Cammalleri (35) are the team’s greybeards, and while both had down seasons, they could each realistically rebound under new leadership. The problem for Los Angeles is that they don’t have any bonafide prospects pushing the issue. Adrian Kempe is the surest best to make the roster this year, as he could slot into a bottom-six role quite easily. Defenseman Paul LaDue should see his fair share of work this year as well. Beyond that, they’ll have no players playing on entry-level contracts. It’s simply unsustainable to draft in such a poor manner for so long, and Los Angeles is seeing the hurt now. If Jonny Brodzinski, a former 5th-rounder, could make the leap permanent, it would be a great help.

The Kings are over $6.8 MM under the cap ceiling, so unlike the Wings and Senators the franchise isn’t overly concerned about money. Dustin Brown’s contract is particularly egregious, but there’s not much to be done about it. Los Angeles can still turn things around, but they’ll need more recent draft picks to find a way to contribute going forward. Gabriel Viladri will head back to Windsor for the season, but he could inject a serious shot of youthful speed and creativity into the roster in 2018-19. There’s just not a ton of excitement when it comes to Kings prospects, and considering that Vilardi was the first first-round pick since 2014 (Kempe), it’s easy to see why. Still, Tanner Pearson (25) and Tyler Toffoli (25) should have more prominent offensive roles this year, while some older defensemen were abandoned, so management seems to be righting the ship.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

August 16, 2017 at 8:37 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 4 Comments

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $64,848,335 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry Level Contracts

D Charlie McAvoy (two years remaining, $917K)
D Brandon Carlo (two years remaining, $789K)
F Frank Vatrano (one year remaining, $792.5K)
F Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (two years remaining, $917K)
F Anders Bjork (three years remaining, $925K)

Boston has one of the deeper prospect pipelines in the NHL with upwards of a dozen players in the system on entry-level deals who could earn a call-up before that deal expires. However, this group of five stands the best chance of having a major impact on the Bruins right away in 2017-18.

Carlo, of course, already has a full year under his belt in which he skated in all 82 regular season games and played in over 20 minutes per night, all under the tutelage of one of the best defensive players of his generation: Zdeno Chara. Carlo has already made his #37 overall draft slot look like a steal, but with two more years at under $800K as he develops into a shutdown NHL defender, he could be one of the best blue line bargains in the league.

McAvoy is certainly ready to give Carlo a run for that title though. One of the Calder Trophy favorites for the upcoming season, McAvoy was thrown into the fire last season, making his NHL debut in the Bruins opening round playoff series. McAvoy performed admirably among a ragtag group of replacement players on Boston’s battered blue line and showed that he is more than ready for NHL action. Burning a season off of McAvoy’s ELC was a tough call for GM Don Sweeney and company, but giving McAvoy a taste last year could pay off this year. The former Boston University star and 2016 first-rounder will have all eyes on him in 2017-18.

Burning a year off of Forsbacka Karlsson’s entry-level deal for just one late-season game may have been ill-advised however. The Bruins love “JFK” and his two-way ability and cerebral play at center, with some in the organization and outside observers comparing him to Boston’s own Patrice Bergeron, widely considered the best two-way forward in the game. Those are big expectations to meet, but the Bruins will give Forsbacka Karlsson every chance to earn a regular role this season as they work to develop him into a well-rounded pro. JFK may not have the immediate impact, and expected pay day, of Carlo or McAvoy, but in two years he will certainly be worth more than $917K.

Vatrano has been a revelation for Boston since he was signed as an undrafted free agent, leaving UMass Amherst early in 2015. Vatrano led the AHL in goal scoring in 2015-16 with a stunning 36 goals in 36 games, while tallying 29 points in 83 NHL games along the way as well. Injury and inconsistency slowed down Vatrano’s rapid ascension last season, making 2017-18, his final ELC season, a major year in his career.

Finally, the Bruins were able to convince Bjork, a superstar at Notre Dame and the team’s 2014 fifth-round pick, to leave school early and sign on in Boston. The maximum three-year, $925K per ELC was nice motivation, but the team likely had to promise some play time as well. While Bjork’s spot on the team this season is not set in stone, with fellow high-end prospects Jake DeBrusk, Zach Senyshyn, Peter Cehlarik, and Danton Heinen clamoring for NHL play time, it seems that he’ll certainly get a chance. If the 2016-17 Hobey Baker candidate can find even remotely similar success in the big leagues compared to his past two NCAA seasons, his three-years of production at under $1MM will look mighty nice on the Bruins’ payroll.

One Year Remaining

D Zdeno Chara ($4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Spooner ($2.825MM, RFA)
F Riley Nash ($900K, UFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($1.2MM, UFA)

While it is a relatively painless 2018 free agency class for Boston, the end of Chara’s contract does loom large. The NHL’s tallest man has been the Bruins top defenseman since he signed with the team originally back in 2006 and very well could continue to be next season. It is possible that the Bruins re-sign Chara, whose cap hit drops from nearly $7MM to just $4MM this year, to a more affordable, short-term contract, but the more likely scenario is that the 40-year-old simply retires. He’ll leave the Boston blue line in much better condition than he found it back in ’06, with Torey Krug ready to lead the next wave of McAvoy, Carlo, and prospects like Jakub Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and Uhro Vaakanainen, but his size, strength, experience, and most of all, leadership, will not be easy to replace. The captain’s absence will be felt before the team even takes the ice for 2018-19 and could lead to the Bruins using the cap space Chara leaves behind to explore the free agent market.

Spooner and the Bruins nearly went to salary arbitration this summer, agreeing to terms on a one-year extension the morning of the hearing. Next year could be a very similar situation, whether Spooner performs or not. If Spooner can bounce back from a down 2016-17 season and prove that he is more than just a one-dimensional power play asset, then the Bruins will have to give him a raise on his new $2.825MM deal. If Spooner yet again struggles with the two-way and positional aspects of the game and is overshadowed by the Bruins’ younger talent, Sweeney will have to decide between bringing Spooner back again at a similar price and using up a roster spot or instead trading him away.

Nash and Khudobin, both signed on July 1st, 2016 to affordable two-year deals, also had incredibly similar seasons last year. Both were very disappointing for much of the year before their play picked up toward the end of the season. Going into 2017-18, Nash faces more pressure as he could take on the full responsibility of being the veteran presence on the checking line with Dominic Moore now gone. If Nash rises to the occasion, the Bruins have shown a fondness and loyalty toward their veteran fourth-liners and could reward Nash with an extension and a raise. If not, he’ll be gone. Khudobin also needs to have a big year, with starter Tuukka Rask in need of more rest than he got last season, but if Khudobin flops or if 24-year-old Zane McIntyre continues to light up the AHL, it seems very unlikely that he will re-sign.

Two Years Remaining

D Adam McQuaid ($2.75MM, UFA)

McQuaid has had a great run in Boston, including a Stanley Cup in 2011, but with injury concerns already an issue and Kevan Miller having passed him up on the depth chart with a very similar playing style, there is little doubt that 2018-19 will be McQuaid’s last in Boston. McQuaid will be 32 that year, playing behind Miller, McAvoy, and Carlo on the right side, with the Bruins’ ample defensive depth in the pipeline pushing for play time. Unless he’s willing to take a major pay cut to keep his seventh-man job, McQuaid will be gone.

Three Years Remaining

D Torey Krug ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Kevan Miller ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Matt Beleskey ($3.8MM, UFA)

The Bruins are surely hoping that by 2020 the likes of McAvoy, Carlo, Zboril, Lauzon, Lindgren, Vaakanainen, and a few other additions here and there will make the end of Krug and Miller’s contracts a non-issue. At that time, Miller will be 32, like McQuaid the year before, and could be on the way out. Krug will be just 29, but four of those other defenseman listed are also lefties and could be a better value on ELC’s and bridge deals than what easily could be an extension worth $7MM annually. With that said, Krug could take on a vital leadership role on the blue line after Chara’s departure and that, coupled with his rising offensive numbers each year, could make him a valuable commodity that the B’s would rather keep around beyond his current contract. The same could go for the reliable Miller, who has really rounded out his game recently. Boston showed their true feelings this summer, opting to expose (and subsequently lose) young Colin Miller in the Expansion Draft rather than risk the same fate for Kevan Miller and his reasonable cap hit over three more years. Miller could be kept around as a solid stay-at-home anchor on the bottom pair beyond 2020.

Beleskey had a career year in his first season in Boston and his $3.8MM cap hit seemed well worth it. He then had a disastrous year in his second season, plagued by injury and utter ineffectiveness, and his $3.8MM cap hit was the Bruins’ biggest blemish. If the next season or two go more like last year, then Beleskey is unlikely to even make it to 2020 without being traded or bought out. If he straightens out and returns to near 40-point production, then he will surely play out his contract. Beleskey’s hard-nosed brand of hockey may even make him a fan favorite in Boston if he returns to form, which could lead to an extension. The future of Beleskey in Boston is completely unclear, but 2017-18 will make a major difference.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F David Krejci ($7.25MM through 2020-21)
F David Backes ($6MM through 2020-21)
G Tuukka Rask ($7MM through 2020-21)
F Patrice Bergeron ($6.875MM through 2021-22)
F Brad Marchand ($6.125MM through 2024-25)

Few teams in the NHL have their core locked up as well as the Bruins do. While both Krejci and Backes are coming off of down years and their expensive cap hits and four more years of term can seem like a burden on Boston, a return to form is expected in 2017-18 and both players have the physical tools to play out their contracts as reliable top-six skaters. Backes would be 37 at the end of his contract and Krejci would be 35, with neither a lock for any extension.

Even if Krejci and Backes continue to put up just modest numbers relative to their chunk of the salary cap, it is hard to compete with the job the Bruins have done locking up Bergeron, Marchand, and Rask.

It is difficult to argue that Bergeron is not the best two-way forward in the game and he may even be the best of all time. He is the undisputed leader of the Bruins’ forward corps and will take his rightful place as captain once Chara retires. Beyond those intangibles, Bergeron is also a consistent 50-60 point scorer. For all that, the Bruins pay less than $7MM per year for five more years. It is undoubtedly one of the best bargains in the NHL. There is also little concern about Bergeron slowing down. He may be the best bet of any player in the NHL to play into his 40’s due to his style and work ethic. Boston surely plans on having him mentor the likes of Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, and Jack Studnicka into two-way stars in their own right. When Bergeron’s contract expires in 2022, he will still be just 37 years old, despite having 19 seasons of NHL experience. The smart money is on Bergeron signing another short-term deal in Boston after his current contract expires and whenever he does call it quits, it seems inevitable that there will be a spot in the rafters at TD Garden with his name on it.

Challenging Bergeron for one of the best contracts in hockey is long-time line mate Marchand. Marchand inked an eight-year, $49MM extension with the Bruins last summer to avoid the drama of impending free agency in 2016-17. However, Marchand then went and shattered his career highs, recording 85 points – 24 more than his best – and finishing in the top five in the NHL in goals and points. Marchand was named a First Team All-Star and even garnered some Hart Trophy consideration. If Marchand had hit the free agent market this off-season, there is no doubt that he would have made $8MM+ on a long-term deal, in Boston or elsewhere, rather than $6.125MM. Marchand has always been considered a talented two-way player with speed and scoring ability, but if he has really taken the next step toward elite NHL scorer, then then next eight years could be pretty special for Boston.

Finally, there’s Rask, who is signed for four more years at $7MM. Rask gets his fair share of criticism, and maybe more than his fair share in New England, but at the end of the day he is an elite goaltender. Many forget that Rask has the best career save percentage in NHL history, not to mention the top goals against average among all active players. While the game has changed over the years and it is hard to compare Rask to some of the greats of earlier years, the stats state that he is the best of all time which at least implies that he is an elite NHL goaltender. Compared to the $10.5MM that Carey Price will be paid starting in 2018-19 and the current contracts for aging keepers Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne, Rask’s deal is a steal and he has shown no signs of deterioration at age 30, making the four remaining years likely to be just as stellar as the past four.

Buyouts

D Dennis Seidenberg ($2.2MM this year, $1.2MM in 2018-19 and 2019-20)

F Jimmy Hayes ($567K this year, $867K next year)

Considering his rebirth with the New York Islanders, the Bruins short-term need on the left side of the defense, and the relatively steep cost of the buyout, cutting Seidenberg was regrettable. The Hayes buyout seems far less likely to leave Bruins fans feeling any regret.

Still To Sign

F David Pastrnak

The Bruins have stated that they will not trade Pastrnak and are looking to extend him long-term. The 21-year-old scorer with three NHL seasons and 123 points already is likely to soon join the list of smart long-term deals signed by Boston. Pastrnak scored 70 points in 75 games in 2016-17 and has 80-90 point upside, even in the conservative Boston offense. Even if it costs the Bruins $8MM per year to sign him for the maximum eight years it will be well worth it. Assets like Pastrnak don’t come around very often and when his eight-year deal expires and he’s still just 29 years old and ready for another eight years of elite production, the Bruins will be glad they did what they had to do to keep him.

Best Value – Brad Marchand

Worst Value – Matt Beleskey (for now)

Looking Ahead

The Bruins have been completely uninvolved in the free agent market this summer thus far, presumably opting instead to give their own young players a shot at roster spots this season. With lots of talent making its way to the pro level, that trend doesn’t seem likely to end any time soon. With their core locked up long term at an affordable rate and cheap young talent to fill out the roster, the Bruins are attempting to do one of the most difficult things in sports: rebuilding on the fly. If it works out, Boston won’t have to deal with a difficult cap crunch for many years. If it doesn’t and the Bruins have to dip into the 2018 free agent market, things could get a little tight.

Alexey Marchenko Heads To KHL, Wants NHL Return Eventually

August 15, 2017 at 11:39 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Yesterday Alexey Marchenko was placed on unconditional waivers by the Toronto Maple Leafs ahead of a mutual contract termination, with many suspecting he’d return to the KHL for the upcoming season. That has been confirmed by his agent Dan Milstein, who also reports that Marchenko would like to return to the NHL at some point in the future. Milstein didn’t confirm which team Marchenko would play for, though it’s widely believed that CSKA Moscow will be his destination. Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports that it will be a three-year deal. The Maple Leafs will gain a contract slot and $1.45MM in cap space for this season, the same amount Marchenko was due in the final year of his contract.

Both the cap space and contract slot are huge assets for the Maple Leafs, who remain over the $75MM salary cap and now have 48/50 players under contract. That’s not including Connor Brown, who is a restricted free agent but expected to sign before the start of training camp. Brown and Maple Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello have expressed no concern over negotiations, and likely wer waiting for transactions like this in order to free up some room.

The Maple Leafs could also now be players in NCAA free agency tomorrow, when Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot will headline a group of players that also includes former Toronto draft pick Dominic Toninato. Toninato has said that there wasn’t room for him in Toronto in the past, which could have just changed with the termination of Marchenko. Still, Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News listed the Maple Leafs as a possible destination for Butcher, though another left-handed defenseman seems unlikely for a team already loaded with them.

A final possibility is now free agency for the Maple Leafs, as they previously couldn’t have added another player without risking their not being room for Brown to sign. With several useful names still out there, the upstart Toronto team could add some more veteran presence to one of the youngest squads in the league.

Dallas Stars’ Upcoming Roster Crunch

August 10, 2017 at 1:16 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

While everyone points to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Chicago Blackhawks and Washington Capitals and their upcoming training camp cap crunches, there is another team that may be facing the reality of losing a player on waivers before the start of the season. Toronto and Chicago will both likely use long-term injury space to clear room on their salary cap as the season begins, but the Dallas Stars don’t have that luxury (if you can call it that).

Looking at the Stars’ CapFriendly page, there are 22 skaters currently listed in their NHL portion. Each of these 22 are waiver eligible, and 20 of them are on one-way contracts. Devin Shore is still on his entry-level deal, but it would be shocking to see him spend any time in the minors this year after a solid 2016-17 campaign in which he registered 33 points. The other two-way deal is Brian Flynn, a prototypical 13th forward who hasn’t seen the minors in almost five years.

When combined with the more than $12.3MM Dallas is paying goaltenders this year—including the buyout of Antti Niemi—the team currently projects over the $75MM salary cap. The Stars will have to remove one of the players just due to roster constraints, but there is also the case of Julius Honka. Honka is still waivers exempt, but many believe he’s ready to take the next step and join the Stars full-time. The 21-year old is poised for a breakout campaign, that could end up costing the Stars one of their other defensemen.

It’s extremely unlikely that the team will carry nine defenders, meaning that if Honka makes the team out of camp at least one would need to go. The most likely candidates are Greg Pateryn or Patrik Nemeth, though it may be tough to squeak either of them through waivers. While neither has shown the ability to contribute in the top-4, both would provide solid NHL depth to a team looking to improve their blue line. If Dallas doesn’t make a move in the next month to trade off some of their surplus defense, the battles in camp may be some of the most interesting to watch around the league.

Cap Haven: Vegas Golden Knights’ Ability To Eat Bad Contracts

August 7, 2017 at 12:19 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 8 Comments

The Vegas Golden Knights are in a better situation now than any of the last few NHL expansion franchises. Sure, some would look at their roster and see a team that could easily finish last in the entire league, devoid of high-end talent or superstar potential; but as we’ve already discussed they had a heck of a first entry draft and are set to improve themselves again at the deadline this year. It could be a quick build for the league’s 31st franchise.

Following Nate Schmidt’s arbitration decision this weekend, in which the Golden Knights locked up another trade deadline asset for a reasonable price, the team currently projects to have around $5.6MM in cap space for the upcoming season. That number may not look very large, but it is actually quite deceiving. The Golden Knights have two players—David Clarkson and Mikhail Grabovski—who will never suit up for another NHL game and are destined for long-term injured reserve should the team need it. Their combined cap hit of $10.25MM would be available to the Knights if they acquired more salary, and there is where the team will really bring in the most value.

Clarkson and Grabovski are already examples of how eating a bad contract can be beneficial for a team. The Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Islanders both sent a first-round pick this year and a second-round selection in 2019 to move the contracts off the books (and decide which player would be selected in the expansion draft), leading to Vegas’ huge draft haul. Those deals are just the tip of the iceberg for what Vegas could pull off in the next few years. In July, Vegas owner Bill Foley made it clear that there was “no budget” for the club, and that they’d use financial muscle to vault them into the NHL spotlight right away.

Vegas also has eleven defensemen at the moment, and whether or not that is reduced by trade prior to the year or burying certain contracts in the minors, there is more space coming off the salary cap for the NHL team. Even a conservative estimate of an additional $3MM in created room puts the team at around $19MM in in-season cap space, a huge number they could use to their advantage. Recently we’ve looked at some of the worst contracts in the league, both in a per-point capacity and looking forward on long-term deals. Vegas is a clear landing spot for any of these under-performers.

The question then, becomes whether the team believes it can truly compete in the next five years. Acquiring bad contracts is fine if you’re committed to a long rebuild, one that will be starting to turn into a competitive window as the contracts expire. But if Vegas GM George McPhee believes that the trio of Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki and Erik Brannstrom will jump start the process enough to really compete before say, Dustin Brown’s five remaining years expire then they have to be hesitant to acquire such a bad deal.

Vegas has just $11.6MM committed to active players for the 2019-20 season. Whatever you say about their decisions in the expansion draft, they’ve put themselves in a position to act as a sort of cap haven for teams around the league and stockpile young assets because of it. They already have fourteen picks in rounds 1-3 of the next three drafts, including a whopping seven selections in 2019. They’ll easily have even more than that at the end of the year, and more still the summer after that. Draft picks are like lottery tickets, but if you’re the only one playing you stand quite a good chance of winning.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL

August 6, 2017 at 10:00 am CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.

The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.

However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.

So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.

With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra’s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.

While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.

Pittsburgh’s Alternative Third-Line Center Options

August 5, 2017 at 12:08 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 5 Comments

While many teams across the NHL still have holes to fill before the puck drops on the 2017-18 season, no vacancy has received more attention than the third-line center slot for the two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins. In fact, we’ve already written about it once before. However, the scenario has changed over the last few weeks, as the new contracts for RFAs Brian Dumoulin and Conor Sheary have left the Pens with just over $3MM in salary cap space. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette recently spoke with GM Jim Rutherford, who essentially stated that he does not plan to move out significant salary in a deal to acquire a new bottom-six center. What that means is that the Penguins are left with a much smaller margin to work with to acquire Nick Bonino’s replacement.

So who will it be? Who it won’t be is easier to say. The pipe dreams of Colorado’s Matt Duchene or Carolina’s Jordan Staal are now all but over, as are more reasonable targets like Toronto’s Tyler Bozak or Dallas’ Radek Faksa now seem out of reach as well. The Vegas Golden Knights have not shown any indication that they are interested in moving forwards, so strike their group of suitable centers off the list as well. With each passing day, it seems a Matt Cullen return grows less and less likely as well.

What the Penguins are left with are a group of guys who fit their needs well: young, two-way centers on affordable contracts. The most common name bandied about is Detroit Red Wings forward Riley Sheahan. Sheahan struggled mightily in 2016-17 and is relatively expensive compared to some other available names at $2.075MM this season. However, Detroit desperately needs to shed salary and may have reached the end of the line with Sheahan. It could be a good match, with Sheahan very likely bouncing back on a far more talented Penguins team. Pittsburgh’s top target may be Arizona’s Jordan Martinook, who just resigned with the team, but is part of a Coyotes forward corps that is crowded with young talent. Martinook is an underrated two-way player and would fit in nicely with the Pens, but Arizona may not be keen to move him in a deal that Rutherford stated would not included salary players. The Coyotes have had their fill of picks and prospects and might be on the lookout for only veteran contributors at this point. The Penguins could turn to the Los Angeles Kings, who have great depth at center including Nick Shore and Nic Dowd. Both would fit the need nicely in Pittsburgh and come in at under $1MM. The 25-year-old Shore would be especially nice, as the team can retain RFA rights over him beyond 2017-18, but Dowd may be easier to acquire from a Kings squad that is not any closer to returning to the playoffs. One final option, staying out west, could be San Jose Sharks center Chris Tierney. It is rumored that the two sides are on rocky grounds, with Tierney signing just a one-year extension this summer, and could be looking for a trade. Tierney has proven to be a solid defensive force in the San Jose bottom six and could play the same role in Pittsburgh. The Sharks have done nothing this off-season and could see replacing Tierney with a Penguins forward prospect as at least some kind of roster shakeup.

Obviously, the available names are not of the sexy variety. The Penguins have been spoiled with center depth through their Stanley Cup years and fans are surely hoping they can find another Staal or Bonino. However, with little cap space to play with and a reluctance to change the current roster any further, this is what Rutherford is left with. Any of these guys could be a valuable piece on another strong Penguins team, as each plays a solid two-way game, but none are gonna be the big-name acquisition that many expected. Pittsburgh will be back in the Cup race again next year even if they do nothing at all and stick someone from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton at third-line center, so maybe the better question is not who will play there, but why does everyone care so much?

Montreal’s Challenges In Utilizing Their Remaining Cap Space

July 29, 2017 at 3:40 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Defenseman Andrei Markov’s departure from Montreal caught many by surprise, particularly since the team had more than enough cap space to bring him back; even after bringing in Mark Streit, the team has more than $8MM to work with per CapFriendly. While the expectation is that GM Marc Bergevin will look to add a big-ticket player now through the trade market or free agency, that’s something that may be easier said than done.

For starters, Markov was arguably the most prominent player left on the open market. There’s a case to be made that there aren’t any top-four blueliners left in free agency so replacing him that way isn’t going to happen. The Canadiens also need help down the middle but the top unsigned UFAs are players that are pondering retirement at this time in Mike Fisher and Matt Cullen. There are wingers who can still help plenty of teams including Montreal that remain available but that’s one area where their depth is fairly strong.

As a result, going the trade route seems to be the likeliest way to go. However, there are some restrictions there as well. First off, their best trade chip in defenseman Mikhail Sergachev was already dealt to Tampa Bay as part of the Jonathan Drouin deal. He was the one youngster who could be the centerpiece of a trade for an impact player so it’s fair to question whether they have the prospect capital to land that big piece via trade.

Montreal’s financial situation beyond this season also is worth noting. For 2018-19, they already have nearly $58MM committed to just 15 players. While center Tomas Plekanec ($6MM) is a significant expiring contract, most of his salary is already earmarked to cover Carey Price’s new deal which kicks in then. Fast forward one more year and the commitment stands at over $48MM to just nine players (with captain Max Pacioretty among those slated to become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2019). Accordingly, it’s fair to speculate that Bergevin may not want to add another high salary that’s signed beyond next season, especially with the expectation that the salary cap is going to continue to flatten out.

There aren’t many teams in dire cap straits either that they could potentially look to exploit. Three are currently pegged to be over (Toronto, Chicago, and Detroit) but they all have players eligible for long-term injury reserve that will mitigate the need to dump a sizable salary. Washington’s in a tight spot as well but they can work around that by filling out the roster with near-minimum salary players instead of necessarily moving someone more prominent out.

All of a sudden, while the Canadiens have plenty of room to work with, the options don’t seem quite as plentiful. Free agency isn’t likely to provide much help while if they want to add an impact player, they may not want to look at players on longer-term deals unless they’re sending at least some salary the other way so while the money is there, there are also some challenges they have to deal with when they go to spend it.

One way or the other though, it’s highly unlikely that Montreal enters 2017-18 with $8MM in cap room which makes them a team to watch for the rest of the offseason.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Headlines