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San Jose Sharks Have Looked Into Erik Karlsson

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This is not a match many would have seen coming, but TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the San Jose Sharks are among the teams that have had talks with the Ottawa Senators about all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson. The rumors are growing that Karlsson could be moved ahead of Monday’s trade deadline or, at least, this off-season. Could the Sharks be a dark horse destination?

In a way, it makes sense. Ever since it was revealed that Senators GM Pierre Dorion was seeking a team to take the contract of Bobby Ryan – $7.25MM over four more years – as part of any deal for Eriksson, it narrowed the field considerably of who could possibly even afford to acquire such players, without bringing in a third team. One such team that is a contender and could afford to bring in both Karlsson and Ryan are the Sharks, who will have over $18MM in salary cap space entering the off-season. LeBrun also notes that it is not out of the ordinary for Sharks GM Doug Wilson to inquire into every available player. LeBrun calls San Jose “big-game hunters”, citing their trades for Joe Thornton and Brent Burns over the years and their push to sign Steven Stamkos two years ago. The Sharks have also been mentioned as a possible destination for John Tavares, should he decide not to re-sign with the New York Islanders.

However, one has to wonder if this rumor is more fiction than fact. While the Sharks may have the cap space and the big splash history, the fit doesn’t make much sense. The reason the team has had interest in Stamkos and Tavares is because they need another major piece up front, especially with 38-year-old Thornton unlikely to return. There is no similar concern on the blue line. Burns is fresh off a Norris Trophy last season and right up there with Karlsson as one of the best defenseman in the league. He’s also signed for seven more years to the tune of $56MM. Marc-Edouard Vlasic is one of the league’s top defensive rearguards and begins his own eight-year, $56MM extension next season. Justin Braun and Brenden Dillon are both in their primes and signed for two more years at reasonable rates, while youngsters Dylan DeMelo and Joakim Ryan have taken a step forward this season. Even the system is well-stocked, with promising blue liners like Jeremy Roy, currently in the AHL, and Mario Ferraro of UMass. The Sharks are a top-ten team in goals against and shots against and arguably the best penalty kill unit in the NHL. Defense is the least of their worries, so why then would they sell off multiple high-value assets and take on a terrible contract to acquire, of all things, another defenseman? The answer is they wouldn’t. No one can blame Wilson for checking in, if he did, but more likely this is the Senators exaggerating interest to drive up the price on Karlsson. Don’t expect a top pairing of Norris Trophy winners in San Jose any time soon, unless Vlasic is ever rewarded for his stellar two-way play.

Trade Candidate: Thomas Vanek

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

New coach, new expectations, but in the end, the Vancouver Canucks don’t look that much different. Vancouver finds themselves in seventh place in the Pacific Division, once again not competing for a playoff spot. The Canucks had higher expectations this year when they decided to add some veteran depth to the team in hopes it might spark their young core to play at a higher level. The team does have hope as they have a large amount of talented young prospects that aren’t too far away from joining the team over the next few years, but they must answer the question if they want to move out veteran scorer Thomas Vanek.

Contract

Dec 19, 2017; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks right wing Thomas Vanek (26) skates against the Montreal Canadiens during the third period at Rogers Arena. The Canadiens won 7 - 5. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Vanek is currently finishing up the one-year contract he signed this offseason with Vancouver at $2MM. He will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

2017-18

At age 34, many teams believed that Vanek’s game may have passed him by and many of those teams chose to look elsewhere this offseason. He wasn’t signed until Sept. 1 by Vancouver, but he continues to prove that he can score in this league. He currently has 16 goals in 56 games and has impressed management to the point that they are considering re-signing him to an extension.

While Vanek has been fortunate enough to play on a line with rookie sensation Brock Boeser, the veteran has shown he can still score clutch goals and set up his teammates as well. He is quite versatile and is capable of playing anywhere in the lineup if needed. His lack of speed, however, doesn’t help him.

Season Stats

55 GP, 15 goals, 22 assists, 37 points, -15 rating, 24 PIM, 102 shots, 13:59 ATOI, 44.7 CF%

Potential Suitors

Vanek could have a number of suitors, because of the fact that he won’t be very costly. The Detroit Red Wings, who traded away Vanek at the trade deadline a year ago, only received an average prospect and a third-round pick from the Florida Panthers. So, many teams that are short on salary cap space and picks may find Vanek to be an interesting option, ranging from the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Nashville Predators.

One possibility could be the Boston Bruins, who are desperate for depth on the wings. Vanek might be a good fit to join the Bruins second or even third line and provide even more offense during a playoff run. His penalty killing skills might also be helpful for Boston as well.

Likelihood Of A Trade

It’s more of a 50-50 proposition. The team could easily find a take for Vanek, but will the Canucks get true value for him? Perhaps if the team can get a second-rounder for Vanek, then it might be worth it, but at the same time, there are rumors that Daniel Sedin and his brother Henrik Sedin are considering returning for another year next season. The question then is, should they keep Vanek around for another year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mark Stone, Patrick Maroon Interested In Signing Extensions

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While many players are worried about which team they’ll be suiting up for in just a few weeks, two are already thinking about inking extensions in the summer. Mark Stone and Patrick Maroon both spoke about wanting to stay in their respective cities, though they may find different outcomes as the deadline approaches.

Mark StoneFirst Stone, who told Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia that he wants to stay with the Ottawa Senators long-term and has little doubt the two sides will come to an agreement when he hits restricted free agency this summer. Stone is in the last season of his three-year, $10.5MM contract and has developed into the Senators best forward on most nights. Despite missing the last seven games due to injury, Stone leads the Senators in scoring with 44 points in 44 games and is arguably the league’s best takeaway artist.

Stone will deserve a huge raise if the Senators want to sign him long-term, as he has just a single season left before being eligible for unrestricted free agency. Turning 26 in May, he could demand a contract along the lines of some of the game’s elite wingers. Depending on how Ottawa feels about their finances as they move towards Erik Karlsson’s 2019 unrestricted free agency, Stone’s contract could come with some substantial hurdles. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf remain on the books with huge cap hits, and owner Eugene Melnyk has hinted in the past that the Senators would need to cut salary.

Then there is Maroon, who is headed towards unrestricted free agency this summer. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required), Maroon’s representatives have already touched base with the Edmonton Oilers to discuss an extension, though if things can’t be completed in the next few weeks one would have to believe a trade could be the result. Even with the Oilers’ recent surge they remain more than ten points out of a playoff spot and have to be looking towards next season and beyond.

Maroon has found his game in Edmonton and developed into an effective player, but with the Oilers heading into Connor McDavid’s eight-year $100MM contract and Leon Draisaitl already earning $8.5MM per season, they have to be very careful with how they divide the rest of their salary cap. Even though Maroon is on pace to come short of his career-high of 27 goals set last season, he should still get a raise on the $2MM cap hit he currently carries.

The fact that Maroon is relatively inexpensive this season—he would come with only a prorated $1.5MM cap hit since Anaheim is still retaining part of his salary—also increases his trade value. Edmonton could potentially use him as a rental at the deadline, only to try and re-sign him in the summer months. That’s a tricky game to play though, as things can change quickly in the NHL, especially if Maroon were to go to a team with a good chance at the Stanley Cup. There’s no telling what could change his mind and cause him to sign elsewhere after hitting the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidates: Mike Green

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The Red Wings desperately needed a trade chip as Hockeytown stares at another likely season without a playoff appearance. Mike Green fits that role, has been healthy, and one of the leaders on the scoresheet this season for an offensively starved Red Wings squad. Green is also the lone Detroit All-Star. For a team seeking prospects and picks, any additional positive with Green can only help.

Contract

Green is in the final year of a three-year, $18MM deal ($6MM AAV). He does have a no-trade clause, but most pundits agree that for the right team, he’ll waive it for a chance at the Stanley Cup.

2017-18

Green is on pace for his best season in Motown. After a hot start with 11 points in his first 10 games, Green cooled but has still been the best producer on what is a very thin blue line. In his last ten games, Green has just one goal and three assists and had a brutal game against Chicago, being on the ice for four of the five Blackhawk goals. Though he’s known for being an offensive defenseman, Green is weak in his own end, which has been apparent on a Red Wings squad that suffers defensively. A glimpse into his advanced stats and it tells a story of a defenseman logging top minutes for a below average team. One of his liabilities this season has been turning the puck awful in bad spots–often leading to scoring chances or goals.

Green brings a right hand shot from the point and is a mainstay on what was a resurgent Red Wings power play. As of late, Detroit has struggled but Green’s crisp passing and offensive prowess is a major asset.

Season Stats

48 GP, 5 goals, 21 assists, 26 points, -5 rating, 26 PIM, 22:35 ATOI, 46.8 CF%,

Potential Suitors

His former team, the Washington Capitals, come to mind right away as there would be comfort there with some familiar faces on the bench. Tampa Bay is another option, as they’re certainly gearing up for what should be a long run and adding Green to an already strong blue line would only strengthen an already formidable corps. Vegas, as Craig Custance pointed out, has a “ton of picks” and former Washington general manager George McPhee drafted Green back in 2004.

One other team to keep in mind–the Chicago Blackhawks. Though at this point it may be a longshot due to their struggles, the Red Wings could ease the burden of the cap hit by absorbing 50% of it to grab either a prospect or a draft pick. There’s no secret that Chicago needs a few more pieces on the blue line and Green’s offensive upside could be of help, especially for a power play that has been abysmal this season.

Likelihood of a Trade

It’s not if he’ll be traded but when. There are a lot of question marks in Detroit–first and foremost being the future of Ken Holland. Though not in it for the rebuild, Holland’s hand has been forced as its evident the Wings are nowhere near a playoff team or contender. Holland is also in the final year of a contract with no talks of an extension. In the salary cap era, Holland has been reluctant to trade and when he has, the returns have often been underwhelming. The Red Wings need as many high picks as they can get and unless the market dictates it, it will be tough to pry a first round pick away for him. Second and third round picks seem the likeliest options for him, if not a prospect as well. Holland needs to be creative and Green provides his best chance at a nice return.

All that remains to be seen is whether it’s closer to the deadline or sooner.

Trade Candidates: Derek Ryan

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

In 2016-17, Derek Ryan made headlines as a 30-year-old playing in his first full NHL season after working his way to the highest level through levels like the Canadian University system and pro leagues in Hungary and Austria. The Carolina Hurricanes forward was even nominated for the Masterton Trophy to recognize the perseverance and dedication in took to stick with his NHL dreams much longer than most. In 2017-18, the narrative has changed from Ryan, the feel-good story, to Ryan, the legitimate NHL asset. If you thought Ryan’s 29 points in 67 games as an unheralded, aging rookie was impressive, take a look at his 26 points through 20 fewer games so far this year. Ryan has quietly established himself as a capable, versatile forward and with the Carolina Hurricanes again looking like the odd man out in the Metropolitan Division, the next chapter in Ryan’s story could be that of a key Trade Deadline acquisition.

Contract

Ryan re-signed with the Hurricanes this past summer on a one-year, one-way deal worth $1.425MM. By the Trade Deadline, Ryan will count for less than $500K against the salary cap. He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

2017-18

In 47 games, Ryan has nearly matched his offensive totals from last season, and then some. Ryan has already tied his 11 goals and is only three assists shy of his 18 and has done so in 20 fewer games. Ryan is on pace for 19 goals and 26 assists if he stays with the Hurricanes, though even the smallest hot streak, or perhaps a change of scenery, could push him over 20 goals or 30 assists. This season, Ryan has also been a superior five-on-five player, earning the trust of head coach Bill Peters and, in turn, more ice time. Even with a greater role and more exposure this season, Ryan has elite Corsi numbers and has been the best possession player on the roster. Ryan continues to be an asset at the face-off dot too, with a team-leading 56.3% success rate on nearly 600 draws thus far. He’s seen a slight uptick in hits and takeaways without an increase in penalty minutes as, despite a -13 rating that isn’t a true reflection of his game, he continues to be a two-way force who suppresses the opposition better than most of his fellow Carolina forwards. He often takes the ice against the best the other team has to offer and, compared to the team’s -17 goal differential, does well for himself. By all accounts, Ryan has taken another step forward in all facets in 2017-18.

Season Stats

47 GP, 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points, -13 rating, 10 PIM, 92 shots, 16:18 ATOI, 56.9 CF%

Potential Suitors

While most teams did not even his know his name a few short years ago, Ryan will now be a sought-after depth addition at the Trade Deadline. A responsible, well-rounded forward, Ryan is the type of player that nearly any team could use for the stretch run. With the versatility to play all three forward positions, the depth to his game to line up on the second, third, or fourth line depending on fit and need, and a cap hit that is a total non-factor, there is spot on every contender’s roster for Ryan this season. Who could use him the most? The league’s top team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, are a bit top-heavy on offense and could use a player like Ryan to add balance to their forward corps. The San Jose Sharks and Philadelphia Flyers are in a similar boat. Neither of those three teams have a specific, identifiable need that Ryan could fill, but could greatly use the flexibility he provides as a depth asset.

More specifically, Ryan could be another option for the Pittsburgh Penguins in their continued search for a third-line center. However, the Hurricanes may want to avoid trading Ryan to one of the teams they would need to leapfrog to make the playoffs – especially one with back-to-back Stanley Cup titles. Two other top contenders, the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals, could really use Ryan as an anchor on their fourth lines. Both teams could use an injection of talent on their energy line, as well as another forward who could fill in throughout the lineup, as they march toward the postseason. The Bruins’ responsible, two-way, possession-heavy game especially seems to fit Ryan.

Likelihood of a Trade

The Derek Ryan story has been a great one, but it’s time for the Carolina Hurricanes to move on. Ryan has been a major surprise and a great addition to the lineup the past two years, but the ’Canes face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and should get what they can for all of their impending UFA’s. If they so choose, Carolina could bring Ryan back in free agency, but it’s no use holding onto him for this season. The 31-year-old second-year NHLer faces a limited window to win the ultimate prize, a Stanley Cup, and in the midst of an outstanding season, he deserves to join a contender. Despite his amazing climb from the bowels of the hockey world to the highest level, Ryan remains a name that few people really know. Yet, expect him to quietly garner a lot of attention over the next month.

Minor Transactions: 12/21/17

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Who cares about a roster freeze. Despite the fact that teams can’t trade or waive players, there was quite a bit of movement around the league yesterday. Today is expected to be no different, and we’ll keep an eye on all the minor moves right here. Make sure to refresh throughout the day to keep up.

  • The Montreal Canadiens recalled Brett Lernout late last night, bringing the young defender up to the NHL for the first time this season. Lernout, 22, has three games under his belt for the Canadiens in the past, and will be another option for the team while Shea Weber nurses his foot injury.
  • The Washington Capitals have recalled Madison Bowey and Jakub Vrana back to the minor leagues once again, after executing a paper transaction yesterday to save some cap room. After reclaiming Nathan Walker off waivers yesterday, the Capitals are pushed right up against the salary cap and need to bank as much room on a day to day basis as possible. With Bowey and Vrana both playing well, neither are expected to actually leave the roster for any games.
  • The Ottawa Senators have recalled Andreas Englund from the AHL, giving them another defensive option for their three-game road trip. In a corresponding move, the team has placed Gabriel Dumont on injured reserve in order to make room for Englund on the roster.
  • The Boston Bruins have recalled Colby Cave from the AHL for the first time in his career, as Brad Marchand, Ryan Spooner and Riley Nash all deal with the flu. The trio are all game-time decisions for the team’s game against the Jets.
  • Tyler Bertuzzi is back up with the Detroit Red Wings, a week after being sent down. Bertuzzi has played just a single game with the Red Wings this season, but is a player they still hope can grow into something special. It’s not clear if Bertuzzi will get into the lineup right away, but with Luke Glendening suffering a hand injury yesterday there could be room for the young forward.

Erik Karlsson On The Trade Block?

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Erik Karlsson’s recent comments combined with the Ottawa Senators’ ongoing struggles has created a rumor firestorm that isn’t likely to die down any time soon. The Senators are 1-8-1 in their last ten games and are sinking further and further out of playoff contention this season. Owner Eugene Melnyk is unsurprisingly sensitive right now and Karlsson stating that he would not take a discount to re-sign in Ottawa when his contract expires after next season has rubbed Melnyk the wrong way, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Nick Kypreos.

That does not mean that Karlsson is being traded right away or even that the Senators plan to trade him at all. However, steps are being taken to allow a potential Karlsson trade to happen. Sportsnet reports that the Senators have asked all of their players with modified no-trade clauses  – Karlsson, Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Zack Smith, Alexandre Burrows, Nate Thompson, Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf, and Johnny Oduya – to submit their lists of team they would or would not be traded to, per the terms of each individual clause. For Karlsson, he has a a ten-team no-trade list that will now be on record for the Senators and GM Pierre Dorion, should they choose to make a move.

In the opinion of Kypreos, a move should be made and it should be made soon. Karlsson’s market value, the team’s poor performance, and the Senator’s relatively low revenue and unwillingness to spend to the salary cap ceiling all make a Karlsson extension extremely unlikely. Rather than wait until next season for Karlsson to become just a rental player, Kypreos believes that a trade should be made by this summer and the earlier the better. It is hard to imagine Ottawa getting a fair return for arguably the best defenseman in the NHL, but they will surely get a better deal trading Karlsson this season instead of next.

Yet, the public relations train for the Senators will keep rolling. No one will make it known that Karlsson is trade bait until an actual deal is finalized. The team has enough issues that they don’t need their best player disgruntled and the locker room in disarray. Karlsson being traded is a real possibility, but you won’t hear it from Melnyk or anyone else in Ottawa any time soon.

2018-19 Salary Cap Projected At $78-82MM

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At the board of governors meeting today, the league shared projections for next season’s salary cap. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, that number is set to fall between $78-82MM depending on how the NHLPA uses their escalators. That’s an increase from this year’s $75MM ceiling, giving teams a little extra room in the budget for free agents and contract extensions.

The cap is based on projections of Hockey Related Revenue, a number that does not (and will not) include expansion fees. Those funds are given directly to the owners, and don’t necessarily filter down to the players. Still, it means that overall numbers are up for the league through inflation and growth, and will allow teams to spend a little more next season on their players.

It doesn’t necessarily mean every team will. There are currently eight teams with more than $10MM in cap room, including the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, who have a combined $50MM in space. They, and others like them, will likely be closer to the salary cap floor once again next year, even with the new ownership in Raleigh.

Amazingly, there are also clubs like the Montreal Canadiens who usually don’t have trouble spending right to the cap but currently sit with over $9MM. While some teams like Toronto, Detroit and Chicago struggle to keep their rosters under the upper limit, Montreal has decided to keep quite a bit of room—perhaps for an offseason free agent pursuit?

The increasing cap will improve player salaries, but it will also make previous deals look more and more reasonable. Even Connor McDavid’s eight-year, $100MM extension could be surpassed by several players, as the maximum contract at an $80MM cap would be $16MM per season. John Tavares, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson and others could all push to be the highest paid player in the league over the next few years.

Bo Horvat Potentially Out Long-Term; Canucks Recall Chaput, Demko

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As if our “Thankful For” series was a jinx, Bo Horvat was injured in Tuesday’s Vancouver Canucks game and will be out long-term. The team announced the injury is a broken foot, and that he will be out at least “multiple weeks.” Horvat is seeing a specialist to get a more accurate timeline. In light of that, the team has recalled Michael Chaput from the AHL along with Thatcher Demko.

The reason for Demko’s call-up is less obvious. As Patrick Johnson of The Province explains, it most likely is a move to get the Canucks as close to the salary cap as possible before placing Derek Dorsett on long-term injured reserve. That way they can receive the largest benefit from his injury status, and use his entire $2.65MM cap space if need be.

Horvat has been excellent for the Canucks this season, and with Brandon Sutter also currently on injured reserve the team’s depth at center will be tested. The pair were leading the team in ice time among forwards, meaning others like Sam Gagner and Henrik Sedin will need to step up in their absence. Vancouver, who have had an admirable start to the season, will have to find a new way to shut down their opponent’s top players.

Drew Doughty Pondering His Next Contract

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If you look early enough, the 2019 unrestricted free agent class looks like it could be historical. Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis, Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Joe Pavelski, Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Cam Talbot and many, many more are all set to become UFAs. Obviously the majority of those names will likely be re-signed by their current clubs, and many aren’t likely even thinking about their next contract just yet. One that is however is Drew Doughty, who recently spoke with Craig Custance of The Athletic concerning his upcoming free agency.

Drew DoughtyDoughty, always unfiltered, speaks about what he thinks negotiations would start at for both him and Karlsson and explains how he’ll try to be in touch with the Ottawa defenseman throughout the process. One specific quote, on where he thinks his salary would sit is extremely telling:

Right now, I guess we’d be gauging off what P.K. [Subban] makes. I think both of us deserve quite a bit more than that.

Subban currently holds the highest cap hit for any defenseman in the league at $9MM, with Brent Burns’ extension bringing him closest at $8MM next season. The idea that Doughty and Karlsson will command “quite a bit more” than that may be a tough thing for any team (especially an internal-budget team like Ottawa) to swallow, even if it is for a franchise defenseman.

Custance lists the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings (two lead markets of The Athletic) as potential suitors for Doughty if he does hit free agency, though the defenseman is quick to point out that he loves the Los Angeles organization and is by no means saying he’ll be a free agent when his current contract ends. If he or any of the other franchise players do though, another interesting market to watch for will be the NHL’s newest landscape: Vegas.

We’ve examined the Golden Knights’ salary structure in the past, but it is important to once again note something in particular. Vegas has just four one-way contracts on the books for the 2019-20 season, one of which is David Clarkson who will continue to be on long-term injured reserve. The team has basically all but $10MM of the salary cap—which could be well in excess of $80MM by then—with which to spend the next few seasons, making them a dangerous player in free agency. While other teams are hampered by re-signing their own young players or dealing with the effects of bad contracts from the past, Vegas will have free rein to do what they please in the summer of 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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