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Latest On The Arizona Coyotes & Phil Kessel

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Part of Josh Yohe’s latest piece for The Athletic (subscription required) touched on the fact that Phil Kessel would be willing to play for the Arizona Coyotes due to his solid relationship with head coach Rick Tocchet. The problem, according to Yohe, was that the Coyotes are only looking to stay near the salary cap floor this season and had told the Penguins it likely wouldn’t be possible to take on Kessel’s salary. Now Arizona GM John Chayka wants to dispel any notion that he’d be stopped from going after Kessel because of financial reasons.

On Arizona Sports 98.7 today, Chayka sounded off about the report:

I’d like to know more about it, too. I think it’s terrible reporting. It’s inaccurate across the board from start to finish. I don’t know where some things come up. I’m the one having trade discussions, those discussions with the Penguins haven’t occurred. So unless someone else is making calls that I don’t know about, I’m not sure where his information is coming from.

I’m not sure where it’s coming from, but the basis of that reporting is not coming from anything tied to the Coyotes and certainly not anywhere close to factual.

Chayka by no means confirms that he is pursuing Kessel, but the fact that he reacted so strongly to the suggestion that the Coyotes are limited financially does make them an even more interesting team to follow this offseason. Arizona currently has around $57MM in salary obligations for next season, but that includes Dave Bolland’s contract that will be mostly covered by insurance and no real important restricted free agents to sign. If they had the full salary cap to spend, the Coyotes could go on a shopping spree in free agency and certainly afford to bring Kessel on board.

More likely though is that Arizona will sit somewhere in the bottom third of the league once again and could even be a landing spot for another bad contract at the draft. Similar to the way they took on Bolland and Pavel Datsyuk in the past, Chayka could use his cap space to take a contract like Marian Hossa’s off the books of Chicago in exchange for an asset.

It seems in this case as though a source was mistaken or perhaps was speculating on discussions between Pittsburgh and Arizona, though a trade between the two would likely benefit both. The Coyotes are looking to compete next season and could use another veteran star to support their young core, and the Penguins need to create some cap flexibility if they’re to do anything in free agency. Pittsburgh has several RFAs to get under contract, and currently less than $10MM in cap space to do it.

Salary Cap Ceiling Will Fall Between $79.5-80MM

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The NHL salary cap ceiling has been expected to fall somewhere between $78-82MM for some time, and though we got a more accurate estimate yesterday league commissioner Gary Bettman gives us an even closer guess. Bettman today said that though nothing has been finalized, the cap ceiling should land between $79.5-80MM for the 2018-19 season. That’s an extremely substantial raise from the $75MM mark used last season, giving teams plenty of money to play with this summer. The cap floor is expected to be just over $59MM.

With an extra $5MM in their pockets, teams should have ample budget to go after the top names in free agency. Even past John Tavares and John Carlson, there are plenty of names set to hit the open market that could command big dollars. James van Riemsdyk and James Neal are legitimate goal scoring threats that could get long-term contracts, while players like David Perron, Rick Nash and Paul Stastny will still have plenty of money flashed in front of them. The extra cap room will be exceptionally helpful to certain teams, while being used foolishly by others.

Teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers and Montreal Canadiens already had huge amounts of cap room and bottomless pockets, and another $5MM should make them even more dangerous on the open market. Though each have concerns going forward, they are in a position to spend if they so choose.

Other clubs, like the Carolina Hurricanes, may have trouble even reaching the cap floor. The Hurricanes are currently sitting at just over $47MM in player commitments for 2018-19, meaning they’ll have to spend quite a bit to even reach the league minimum. Luckily they have some good young restricted free agents to lock up, and there are always several dead contracts able to be passed around to help out the league’s most frugal clubs.

Snapshots: Trotz, Tavares, Salary Cap, Seattle

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As soon as Barry Trotz announced his resignation from the Washington Capitals, the vast majority of speculation pointed to him joining the Metropolitan Division-rival New York Islanders, now under the control of famed executive Lou Lamoriello. Recent events will only add fuel to that fire. Newsday’s Andrew Gross believes that Lamoriello prefers to have a coach named before the beginning of the NHL Draft in Dallas on Friday. While Gross notes that Lamoriello will not rush if time doesn’t permit him to fully consider his choice, it seems likely that Lamoriello knows who he wants and simply wants to finalize terms ahead of a major roster-building event. Yet there have been no reports of any candidates formally interviewing for the Islanders’ head coach vacancy, though several names have been brought up so far. However, who was spotted at an airport in Newark yesterday but Trotz. As expected, it seems Trotz is likely on his way in to New York to meet with Lamoriello and the Islanders and, if all goes well, Lamoriello will make the call prior to the draft.

  • Another important note for the pace of the Islanders’ head coach hiring is its impact on the John Tavares situation. With each day closer to the opening of free agency, the Isles lose control over their superstar player. If Lamoriello can land Trotz, one of the top coaches in the game, it could help to finalize an extension with Tavares. However, at this point it seems inevitable that Tavares will at least meet with interested teams. In fact, he and agent Pat Brisson have already whittled down the suitors. While no organizations have been specifically named, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that if Tavares entertains other offers, he will likely only meet with up to five other teams. This self-limited market could benefit the Islanders, but it could also indicate to each of the five teams that they have a legitimate chance of signing Tavares and could up the ante. Only time will tell as July 1st fast approaches.
  • As teams get ready to spend this summer, there is still some question as to what limit they will have. Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly estimated earlier this month that the salary cap ceiling for 2018-19 would rise to somewhere between $78-82MM from its current $75MM. This would present quite a jump, but still leaves teams with a $4MM window of possibility. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston states that clarification is coming soon. He expects an official announcement in the next day or two, likely prior to the start of the draft on Friday. Johnston estimates a narrower range of possibility, speculating that the cap limit will be somewhere on the lower end to midpoint of the original projection, between $79-80MM.
  • Looking further ahead, Don Muret of the Oak View Group relayed information today from recently named CEO and President of the Seattle expansion team Tod Leiweke. Leiweke, the younger brother of Oak View CEO and part owner in the venture Tim Leiweke, has clarified the timeline of the expansion process somewhat over the next year or so. Leiweke stated that both the NHL Board of Governors and the city of Seattle will have their final vote in early September. Assuming the team is moving forward, they will break ground on a new stadium in October. Leiweke expects that construction will be a two-year project, likely meaning that Seattle’s inaugural season will be 2020-21. Regardless, Leiweke and company expect to reveal a name for the future team in the first quarter of 2019. This process is moving a bit slower than it did with the Vegas Golden Knights, but still seems to be full steam ahead.

Rutherford Eyeing Trade Market To Improve Penguins

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Changes are coming in Pittsburgh this off-season, but GM Jim Rutherford is “not even really thinking about free agency right now”. Speaking with Josh Yohe of the Athletic, Rutherford admits that “we won’t really have the cap space to do anything anyway. We’re going to re-sign some of our restricted free agents. And at that point, we’re around the cap.” The Penguins need to re-sign RFA’s Bryan Rust, Riley Sheahan, Daniel Sprong, Jamie Oleksiak and more and even with the expected increase to the salary cap limit will only have $8-12MM maximum to work with. The team could make a couple additional minor moves here and there on the unrestricted free agent market, but Rutherford is correct that team is strapped for the cap space to make any significant signings this summer, at least as things stand now.

As a result, it is the trade market that Rutherford is more interested in. The team has already stated that they don’t plan to buy out any of their current players, but they could look to move them via trade. Atop that list are likely wingers Carl Hagelin and Conor Sheary and defenseman Matt Hunwick. In fact, the blue line appears to be the most likely area for a player to be traded away, as the team enters next season with six veterans under contract and Oleksiak and Frank Corrado as restricted free agents. Rutherford stated to Yohe that defenseman Brian Dumoulin is the most untouchable player on the back end due to his invaluable defensive play, and also expressed his fondness for Oleksiak and Olli Maatta as well. Rutherford said that the front office is optimistic that Kris Letang and Hunwick will perform better next year and were happy with the play of Justin Schultz and Chad Ruhwedel as they made up for Letang’s and Hunwick’s shortcomings respectively this season. However, Rutherford added that his comfort with this group doesn’t mean that won’t make a change.

The goal in making any deal is to improve the depth and youth of the Penguins’ forward corps. This explains why the team was connected to Max Domi recently, before he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens last week. The team is seeking versatility and upside up front and are willing to move substantial assets to get it, but Rutherford wasn’t willing to part with the Alex Galchenyuk-level ask from the Arizona Coyotes for Domi. Rutherford knows that even if he does nothing this summer, Pittsburgh will still be a contender, and as such he does not need to overpay in any trade. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are not going anywhere and Rutherford has already confirmed that he is not shopping Phil Kessel. It’s safe to assume that young winger Jake Guentzel and new acquisition Derick Brassard are also safe. That is already shaping up to be a solid group yet again and the internal addition of younger players should add energy and potential. However, Rutherford’s preference still is to add depth and even more youth if he can to combat the injuries and fatigue that hurt his aging roster last year. Those are the moves he is looking to make this summer and it seems inevitable that at least one such transaction will be made by the expert executive. They may not be three-peat champions, but the Penguins are going to re-stock and be dangerous again in 2018-19.

Free Agent Focus: Anaheim Ducks

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Free agency is now less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Anaheim’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: F Ondrej Kase — After just a 15-point season a year ago, Kase came on strong this year and proved to be invaluable for the Ducks in a season in which not much went right. The playmaking forward came out and put up 20 goals in his second season and that was despite playing in just 66 games. That’s not the best timing in terms of salary cap issues for the Ducks as Kase, who made $670K last season on the final year of his entry-level deal, could be due for a significant raise as he will likely fight for a spot on the team’s second line next season. The only real issue that Kase has is the injuries he’s dealt with over the years. He hasn’t played a full season yet for Anaheim as he just played 53 games the previous season and combined to play just 39 games over two seasons with the San Diego Gulls of the AHL between 2015-17.

D Brandon Montour — After a breakout season a year ago in which Montour came up to Anaheim to replace an injured Clayton Stoner, the young blueliner established himself quickly as a top young defenseman. The 24-year-old proved to management that they could part with Shea Theodore last season in an expansion draft deal and survive with Montour amongst their top four. The defenseman took that step and has been a reliable anchor to the Ducks’ defense, averaging 20:28 of ATOI this season. And now after making $925K last season in the final year of his entry-level deal, Montour should also get quite a pay raise and could walk away with a long-term deal.

Other RFA’s: G Kevin Boyle, F Nicolas Kerdiles, F Kalle Kossila, F Nick Ritchie, F Kevin Roy, D Andy Welinski.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: D Kevin Bieksa — At 37 years of age, Bieksa doesn’t have as much to offer the Ducks than he did in his prime. Now with his $4MM cap hit gone, however, there may still be quite a bit of interest for both parties to remain together as a depth option, albeit at a significantly lower cost. Bieksa did miss some time this season after undergoing hand surgery in March and while he did return by the end of the season, he wasn’t the same as he played in just one of the team’s four playoff games. Regardless, with some of the depth issues the team dealt with last year after trading away Theodore and Sami Vatanen, the team wouldn’t mind bringing the physical veteran back.

F Derek Grant — After years of bouncing around the NHL as a spare forward for many years, Grant has finally found a team that has brought the best out of him. The 28 year old managed to appear in a career-high 66 games where 40 was his previous best and put up 12 goals and 12 assists for Anaheim in a bottom-line role, averaging a career-high 11:06 in ATOI. After signing last year with the Ducks for $605K, he is in line to get a better deal. Throw in the possibility that top center Ryan Kesler might miss all of next season and the team may want Grant around even more.

Other UFA’s: F Jared Boll, F J.T. Brown, F Jason Chimera, F Chris Kelly, F Michael Liambas,  F Scott Sabourin, F Corey Tropp, F Antoine Vermette.

Projected Cap Space: The Ducks don’t have as much wiggle room as they would like as they have just over $9MM of projected cap space available to them. While they don’t have any significant unrestricted free agents they need to sign, some of the cap space will have to be devoted to their restricted free agent group, including Kase, Montour and Ritchie, which leaves them with little room to go out and add a high-profile free agent to bolster their veteran roster. With much of their money going towards their veteran core, the team may have to try to find some players in the bargain bin to bolster their roster for next season.

 

San Jose Sharks Likely To Buy Out Paul Martin

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With Evander Kane’s extension on the book now, the San Jose Sharks salary cap is much more constrained than it was a year ago. Now, The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports there is a “strong possibility” the Sharks plan on easing their salary cap by buying out defenseman Paul Martin next week when the window opens on June 15th. A buyout would save the team approximately $2.8MM in cap space for next season.

The Sharks signed Martin to a four-year, $19.4MM contract back in 2015 to provide a veteran presence to their veteran team. Unfortunately after two solid seasons, Martin really struggled this year. The 37-year-old started the season playing two games, but he never recovered from an ankle injury from the offseason, prompting to miss the next two months of the season. When he returned in December, he found that his position had been taken by Joakim Ryan and the veteran was finally waived in January. He played with the AHL’s San Jose Barracuda for 18 games before returning to his usual spot alongside Brent Burns. However, he was too slow which showed during the playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights. He was responsible for the Golden Knights Game 3 game-winning overtime goal and lost his job for the rest of the series to Ryan again.

With a buyout, instead of taking Martin’s entire $4.85MM cap hit this year, the team would instead take a 2.02MM cap hit this year and a $1.42MM cap hit in 2019-20, which would save the team close to $2.8MM for next season. With Kane on the books for $7MM AAV for the next seven years and several restricted (Tomas Hertl, Chris Tierney) and unrestricted free agents (Joe Thornton, Eric Fehr, Joel Ward) they must deal with this offseason, as well as the potential extensions available to the Sharks for Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski, the team needs to free up as much cap as possible.

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Chicago’s free agent situation.

Top Restricted Free Agent: F Vinnie Hinostroza — For the second year in a row, Hinostroza got some quality time with the Blackhawks, totallying 99 games in those two seasons. However this year, the 24-year-old forward really showed that he can contribute at a high level. In 50 games this year, Hinostroza found himself working between the second and third lines, totaling seven goals and 25 points, while logging more than 13 minutes of ice time per game. As Chicago becomes more and more reliant on youth to fill in the gap for some of their aging veterans, the team needs Hinostroza to take that next step as a bonafide top-six center.

Having made just $925K this past year, he still is likely to have quite a low salary for a few more years, which is exactly the kind of value the ’Hawks need to rebound and compete for a playoff spot next year.

Other RFA’s: D Adam Clendening, F Anthony Duclair, F John Hayden, F Tomas Jurco.

Top Unrestricted Free Agent: D Cody Franson — Perhaps a better word is ’none.’ There are no key unrestricted free agents unless you look real deep on their roster. You would have to look at players who the team moved to Rockford near the trade deadline when the team decided to give their young players as much playing time as possible. Franson was one of those players, who possesses the offensive talents, but lacks the defense to compete at an NHL level and has bounced around the league looking for a permanent home. Don’t count on Chicago being that place as a recent report suggests he’s not expecting to return next season. He tallied just a goal and six assists in 23 games, but was put on waivers in January.

Other UFA’s: F Lance Bouma, F Christopher Didomenico, G Jeff Glass, F Andreas Martinsen, D Michal Rozsival, D Viktor Svedberg, F Jordin Tootoo.

Projected Cap Space: The salary cap has not been Chicago’s friend over the past few years with big contracts the team handed out to Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, among others. However, the team has done a good job of moving some contracts and have $6.1MM of cap space available to them, and that’s not including the assumption the cap could go up $5MM next season. The team might have the ability to bring in a free agent or two to help aid the veterans in making a playoff comeback this year. While it’s not likely to include a high-priced free agent, their available cap space should be an asset for the coming season.

Doughty, Kings Progressing On An Extension

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As is always the case, a much-anticipated free agent market loses many top names before it actually opens. As it currently stands, the talent level and depth of the potential 2019 class makes it one of the best the NHL has ever (hypothetically) seen. However, each player in that class can sign an extension beginning on July 1st of this year and has an entire calendar year before they become available. In that time, this epic free agent group could shrink considerably.

One of the top names already seems destined to be removed from the market. For a time, it was believed that Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty may test the open waters of free agency and could even be the final piece of the championship puzzle for his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs. However, Doughty has made it clear in recent months that his preference is to remain in L.A. Now, Sportsnet insider Nick Kypreos reports that the two sides are already closing in on an agreement to make that happen. Given that an extension offer cannot even officially be made for another month, this early progress seems to indicate that this deal will get done.

According to Kypreos, the 28-year-old Norris Trophy-winning defender will get a significant raise in his next contract over what is already a considerable cap hit at $7MM. Doughty has gone on the record as saying that he would like to be paid more than Nashville Predators blue liner P.K. Subban, who is currently the highest-paid defenseman in the league at $9MM AAV. Kypreos estimates that Doughty will land somewhere in the $10.5-11MM per year range on a long-term deal, which would make him the new top dog among defenseman – until Erik Karlsson hits the market. While it may seem overwhelming that the Kings would have two players, captain Anze Kopitar being the other, making $10MM+, a rising salary cap would make it much less of a burden than it has been on the only other team in that scenario, the Chicago Blackhawks. L.A. would have two of the league’s best players locked up long-term and would not be as strapped for space to build around them in pursuit of more championships for one the best teams in this century.

Pittsburgh Is Not Looking To Trade Phil Kessel

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Following the recent report from The Athletic’s Josh Yohe that Penguins star forward Phil Kessel was upset about his usage in the playoffs and that he and head coach Mike Sullivan were at odds that had led the team to look at moving Kessel, colleague Pierre Lebrun clarified the situation after speaking with Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford. LeBrun reports that Rutherford feels the rumors of dissension in the locker room have been “blown out of proportion”. If this sounds familiar, it is because Rutherford responded to Kessel rumors similarly last summer and, of course, he was not traded. It appears to again be a topic that is inflated by the media more than it is grounded in reality.

Rutherford tells Lebrun that both he and Sullivan understand that it is Kessel’s preference to play with Evgeni Malkin, but defends his coach, saying “there’s times where they play together, when they’re both really going, and there’s times when they don’t… (Sullivan) believes balance throughout the lineup is the best way to win, and we won two Cups that way”. He continues that “for someone to suggest it’s an issue within our team, that can’t be taken care of or resolved, I don’t believe that’s accurate… I don’t feel that we have to trade Phil Kessel.”

If there is no discourse, why would the Penguins trade Kessel? Yes, there are salary cap concerns, but some of those could be eliminated by the estimated significant cap increase, while others could be assisted by shipping out a less-crucial player like Carl Hagelin or Matt Hunwick. After all, Kessel’s 92 points this season did finish tied for seventh in the league in scoring – ahead of Sidney Crosby – and he was among the league’s best in goals, assists, and power play production. At a reduced cap hit courtesy of the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Penguins would much rather keep Kessel and his enormous output rather than try to find a fair return for him. If not for the rumored rift between he and Sullivan, there is little reason they would rush to deal him away. It appears that we can close the book on this hypothetical, at least until next off-season.

Poll: Impact Of The Estimated Cap Increase

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Earlier this week, Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly spoke with the media about many different league topics. Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the press conference was Daly’s estimation of the salary cap for next season. Daly believes that the salary cap will fall somewhere between $78MM and $82MM, meaning that there will be a significant increase in the salary cap. The cap limit has increased by $2MM or less in each of the past three seasons, but the low point of the estimated range would already be a $3MM increase over the 2017-18 cap number. If it ends up near the top of the range, it will likely be the largest jump in the salary cap in league history.

Whatever the result, the cap increase will undoubtedly affect this off-season. Prior to Daly’s projection, teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Tampa Bay Lightning were going to face an immense cap crunch this summer and likely would have been forced to shed salary. Those teams can now breathe easier. However, teams on the lower end of the salary spectrum who don’t spend to the cap, such as the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, will find it even harder to catch up in a market that that has lessened its grip on the stronger, higher payroll teams. With a higher cap comes salary inflation, which is another struggle for small market teams. The cap increase may also allow for some of the bigger talked-about trades and free agent movement – John Tavares, Erik Karlsson, Phil Kessel, ect. –  to happen. However, the flip side is that a salary cap increase gives teams incentive to add, but not subtract and could lessen the amount of total trades we see this summer.

What do you think? Is this potentially historic increase in the salary cap ceiling a good thing for the league?

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