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Maple Leafs Notes: Nylander, Matthews, Samsonov

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the NHL Network today that he believes that the Toronto Maple Leafs and forward William Nylander are at a standstill in their contract negotiations. He goes on to say that he doesn’t think a contract will get done anytime soon unless one of the sides budges dramatically from their position. Friedman’s belief is that Nylander doesn’t want to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs if their other top-end players aren’t willing to take one too.

It’s hard to fault Nylander’s logic, he has been playing on a contract well under his market value for a half-decade while several of his teammates have been collecting annual salaries north of $10MM. Chris Johnston reported weeks ago on the Chris Johnston show that Nylander’s ask on his next contract is an annual salary of around $10MM, while the Maple Leafs are countering with an extension offering him between $8MM and $9MM per year. Given the way things are going, it appears that Auston Matthews next contract could be a big factor in whether the Leafs can lock up Nylander to a long-term extension.

Should the Maple Leafs opt to dangle Nylander in the trade market there would be a long lineup of suitors for the 27-year-old. Nylander is coming off back-to-back 80+ point seasons and has become much more responsible with the puck as his career has gone on. He is no longer regarded as a turnover machine as he might have been in earlier parts of his career.

In other Maple Leafs notes:

  • Speaking of Auston Matthews, Elliotte Friedman had a small update on the Maple Leafs star forward. Friedman told the NHL Network that he believes Matthews will sign an extension very soon that will be between three and five years. While it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Matthews is once again looking at signing a shorter-term deal in hopes of maximizing his earning potential, it is surprising to hear that Matthews would consider a five-year contract that would take him through most of his prime and into his early 30s. Even at 31 Matthews will likely be able to fetch a lucrative long-term deal, but he may not be able to command as much money as he could as a 29-year-old hitting free agency.
  • Friedman also reported that he believes that the Maple Leafs don’t want to go beyond a three-year extension with restricted free-agent goaltender Ilya Samsonov. The Maple Leafs and Samsonov are expected to go to arbitration on July 21, meaning that arbitration numbers will be exchanged tomorrow morning. The 26-year-old netminder was terrific in his first season with Toronto posting a .919 save percentage to go along with a 2.33 goals-against average and a 27-10-5 record. The Maple Leafs are currently over the salary cap meaning that they will need to shuffle around money to fit in Samsonov’s new deal when it is completed.

Penguins Notes: Karlsson, Guentzel, O’Connor

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Josh Yohe of The Athletic writes that all is quiet on the Erik Karlsson trade talks, but the Pittsburgh Penguins remain very interested in the reigning Norris Trophy winner. Yohe doesn’t know whether a deal will materialize quickly or if it could drag out all summer, but Mark Madden has one theory on the matter that Tim Benz writes about in the Pittsburgh Tribute-Review. Madden says that his sources have told him that the San Jose Sharks have the Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes’ best offers and everyone is in a holding pattern to see if the Sharks will crack and take one of the deals.

Kyle Dubas and the Penguins would clearly love to complete a deal, but they do have a reasonably good top-4 defensive group should they miss out on landing Karlsson. While trading for Karlsson would dramatically improve the Penguins offense, they do have a good fallback option should he end up elsewhere. At the moment, Pittsburgh has Jeff Petry penciled in on the right side of their second pairing, and while he didn’t play up to his $6.25MM cap hit last year, his pairing with Marcus Pettersson was quite good.

In other Penguins notes:

  • Yohe writes in The Athletic that the Penguins and pending unrestricted free agent forward Jake Guentzel have had no talks on a contract extension for the two-time 40-goal scorer. Yohe doesn’t find this surprising given that acting Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has been busy taking care of other business and adds that he and Guentzel’s agent have a good working relationship. Yohe’s sense is that the Penguins’ veteran players want Guentzel in the fold long-term, and he figures that the two sides will come to an agreement on an extension in the not-too-distant future. Guentzel has scored 76 goals in the past two seasons and has been the most productive winger that Sidney Crosby has played with, however, he is small in stature and will be 30 years old by the time his next contract kicks in. He will also be looking to cash in on what is likely to be the last lucrative long-term deal he will sign.
  • Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now wonders if the outcome of restricted free agent Drew O’Connor’s contract negotiations is tied to the Penguins’ desire to facilitate a trade for a defenseman. O’Connor filed for arbitration a few weeks ago meaning that once his case is settled or he re-signs it will open a second buyout window for the Penguins. Pittsburgh currently sits over the salary cap even with O’Connor unsigned but could buyout one of their undesirable contracts to create space once O’Connor puts pen to paper. The 25-year-old isn’t expected to demand much of a cap hit as he posted just five goals and six assists in 46 games last season and spent a good chunk of the year in the AHL, however, the days after he signs his next deal could send shockwaves through the NHL.

Snapshots: Blues, Lightning, Coyotes

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Settling with Alexey Toropchenko today gave the St. Louis Blues come salary cap flexibility, says CapFriendly. Much like the Philadelphia Flyers did with Anthony DeAngelo, settling with Toropchenko, the Blues’ last remaining player who had filed for arbitration, opens a second buyout window for the team, which will open in three days and last for 48 hours. The rules for this unique buyout are limited, though – a player must have been on their reserve list at the trade deadline and must carry a cap hit of at least $4MM.

The Blues are cap-compliant but barely – CapFriendly projects them with roughly $290K in space with a full 23-player roster. They’ve expressed a clear desire to move out one of their aging top-four defensemen via trade, but nothing’s manifested yet, and it’s becoming less and less likely as the offseason trods on. It’s entirely possible general manager Doug Armstrong could choose to execute a buyout for someone like Nick Leddy, who’s struggled during his time in St. Louis and carries a $4MM cap hit through 2026. It would be a hefty buyout, running through 2028-29, but it wouldn’t carry a cap penalty of more than $2MM in any of the six seasons – it might be appealing.

More from around the NHL this weekend:

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning are also granted a second buyout window after settling with forward Tanner Jeannot before arbitration. The team has cut costs wherever possible, but they still have less than $1MM in cap space, even taking into account Brent Seabrook’s long-term injured reserve relief. Unfortunately for them, there are no possible candidates here – all of their players carrying a cap hit of $4MM are core parts of the team and won’t be considered for a buyout. General manager Julien BriseBois is prepping for another long season of cap management on a day-to-day basis.
  • PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan today offered updates on a pair of Arizona Coyotes RFA forwards – Jan Jenik and Jack McBain. Morgan notes that Jenik’s deadline to accept his qualifying offer passed yesterday, meaning the team now has to negotiate a new deal with him to return to the desert. The 22-year-old was a 2018 third-round pick and notched 23 points in 30 games with the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners last season. Morgan also notes that there hasn’t been any progress between the Coyotes and McBain on a new contract with his arbitration hearing looming at the end of the month, although they still have about two weeks to come to a deal before the hearing.

NHL, NHLPA Officially Announce Cap Limits For 2023-24

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The NHL has officially released the payroll range for 2023-24, though it won’t come as much of a surprise. As expected, the salary cap ceiling has been set at $83.5MM for next season, $1MM more than 2022-23. A much larger increase is expected next offseason.

The lower limit, or salary cap floor, has been set at $61.7MM. According to CapFriendly, four teams currently project to be under that number. The Chicago Blackhawks, Arizona Coyotes, Detroit Red Wings, and Anaheim Ducks are all well under $60MM in commitments, meaning they have work to do in the coming weeks and months.

A cap ceiling of $83.5MM means that the maximum average annual value that a player can sign for is now $16.7MM, 20 percent of the upper limit. It also means that teams can have commitments up to $91.85MM in the offseason, as there is a cushion of 10 percent to work with before the season begins.

Nashville Predators Sign Jake Livingstone To Extension

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The Nashville Predators announced this morning that they have re-signed defenseman Jake Livingstone to a two-year two-way contract extension. The 24-year-old made his NHL debut this past season dressing in five games for the Predators, posting a single assist. Livingstone struggled for the most part as he was caved in while on the ice at even strength. The two-way extension makes sense as it appears the young defender needs time in the AHL to develop.

Livingstone signed a one-year ELC this past spring to join the Predators for the remainder of the season after spending three years in the NCAA with Minnesota State where he had 21 goals and 59 assists in 91 career games. The native of Creston, BC finished off his college career by being named to the All-CCHA First Team and also won the conference’s Defenseman of the Year award for the second straight season.

Before enrolling at Minnesota State, Livingstone spent four years in the BCHL with the Langley Rivermen. In 185 career BCHL games, he posted 22 goals and 82 assists and was named to the BCHL’s Second All-Star Team in his final season.

With his two-year extension, Livingstone will count $775K against the salary cap while in the NHL and will make $82,500 while in the AHL. For a player who was never drafted and never played major junior hockey it’s a pretty good outcome. He isn’t the best skater in the world, but he has good size standing 6’3” tall and weighing in at 205 pounds. If he can improve his puck handling and skating, he could become a valuable bottom-pairing defenseman for the Predators as they navigate their first rebuild in a long time.

Evening Notes: Red Wings, Penguins, Maharaj

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The Detroit Red Wings have announced the hiring of two new assistant coaches for the Grand Rapids Griffins. The Red Wings have hired Brian Lashoff and Stephane Julien to join the coaching staff of head coach Dan Watson.

Julien had a busy 2022-23 as he led the Sherbrooke Phoenix to a Central Division title with a record of 50-13-3-2 and earned Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL) Coach of the Year as well as the General Manager of the Year. He was also an assistant coach for Team Canada’s gold medal effort at the 2023 World Junior Championship. To top it all off Julien was the head coach of Canada’s U18 squad at the 2022 Hlinka Gretzky Cup. Not a bad 12 months.

Lashoff on the other hand was a defenseman for the Griffins for parts of 14 seasons including two Calder Championships in 2013 and 2017. The native of Albany, New York played 628 career games for the Griffins and accumulated 132 points. The 32-year-old announced his retirement from playing in April of this year and will begin his professional coaching career just a few months after officially hanging up his skates.

In other evening notes:

  • The Pittsburgh Penguins have announced that Vukie Mpofu is the new director of hockey operations and legal affairs. Newly hired Kyle Dubas made the announcement today on behalf of the franchise. Mpofu’s role will have a wide scope, but his main responsibilities will be to advise and assist the hockey operations department with salary cap compliance, contract negotiations, as well as compliance with the collective bargaining agreement and he will have an active role in the leadership of the Penguins hockey research and development department. The Saskatoon native has spent the past two years with the Los Angeles Kings as the manager of hockey operations and legal affairs and now joins the Penguins as one of Dubas’ first big hires as he builds out a new hockey operations department in Pittsburgh.
  • Sadly, the Anaheim Ducks announced that goaltending coach Sudarshan Maharaj was recently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and has been undergoing chemotherapy in Toronto. Maharaj is planning to continue his treatments and hopes to have a planned surgery. His goal is to then re-join the club after that. In the interim Maharaj and Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek are planning to hire an assistant goaltending coach and will be making an announcement in the not-too-distant future.

Boston, New Jersey Complete Minor Trade

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The Boston Bruins announced that they have made their second trade of the day as they have sent forward Shane Bowers to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for defenseman Reilly Walsh. The news comes on the heels of the Taylor Hall trade that the Bruins completed earlier this afternoon. Boston has a great deal of salary cap maneuvering to complete as they hope to retain much of the core that won the President’s Trophy this season.

The trade sees the swap of a couple of 2017 draft picks who have both played just one game in the NHL in their respective careers. Bowers was a late first-round pick by the Ottawa Senators and was dealt a few months later as part of the ill-fated Matt Duchene three-team trade that also saw Kyle Turris go to Nashville, and Bowers end up with the Colorado Avalanche. Bowers spent five seasons in the AHL with the Colorado Eagles before he was traded to Boston this past February for Keith Kincaid. He’s never been regarded as much of an offensive player as his career high in the AHL came in 2018-19 when he put up 27 points in 48 games. He was always a stretch to be selected in the first round and at 23 years old it appears he will likely be a career minor leaguer barring a turnaround in his play. This past year in 57 games split between the Eagles and Providence Bowers put up just 21 points.

Walsh on the other hand was a third-round selection by the Devils and has spent his entire professional career in their organization. He’s been a very solid offensive defenseman in the AHL putting up 23 goals and 76 assists in 174 career games. Walsh could potentially compete for a spot as the Bruins seventh defender depending on how their salary cap maneuvering plays out, but at this point it looks like an AHL shuffling of the furniture for both teams.

One must wonder what Bruins general manager has in store for his group. With his second trade of the day, it appears that he is setting up for something. Boston has several key free agents to sign and limited cap space to do it. Bowers was going to be eligible for arbitration but it’s unlikely he would have received much of an award given how little he has contributed at the NHL level. Reilly is also an RFA on July 1st so Boston will need to sign him to a new contract.

Evening Notes: Salary Cap, Bailey, Graovac

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Chris Johnston of NorthStar Bets is reporting that the NHL and NHLPA will not be negotiating a higher increase to the 2023-24 NHL salary cap meaning that it appears the cap will be set at $83.5MM. The $1MM increase will be a disappointment to a lot of teams that are pressed up against the cap, while teams with ample room under it will have an opportunity to weaponize their space and acquire assets for bad contracts.

Two weeks ago, Joe Smith of The Athletic laid out the case for a larger cap increase this offseason but it appears the NHL and the players association have opted for one more season with a modest increase. The players are expected to pay off the debt they incurred from the 2020-21 and with that there are a lot of people in the hockey community who believe that the cap could increase by more than $4MM for the 2024-25 season, which would be an absolute boon for players hitting free agency 12 months from now.

In other evening news:

  • Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports tweeted today that there is no truth to the rumors that the Arizona Coyotes have interest in New York Islanders forward Josh Bailey. While a cap dump to Arizona does make sense for the Islanders given Bailey’s recent play, they might have to cough up significant assets in order to facilitate a trade to move on from Bailey. The once productive forward struggled last season posting just eight goals and 17 assists in 64 games and has become a regular on most pundits lists of players who will be bought out. Bailey’s contract was frontloaded so while his cap hit will be $5MM next season, his actual salary owed is just $3.5MM.
  • The KHL’s Admiral Vladivostok announced today that they have signed Canadian forward Tyler Graovac to a one-year contract. The Brampton native was drafted in the seventh round of the 2011 NHL entry draft by the Minnesota Wild and spent four seasons in their system split between the AHL and NHL putting up 12 goals and three assists in 84 NHL games. He will be entering his third season in the KHL after spending last year with Podolsk Vityaz where he put up nine goals and 11 assists in 49 games.

Evening Notes: Sabres, Bezeau, USHL

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Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News reported today that the Buffalo Sabres are in contract discussions with a pair of former first overall picks. The Sabres are trying to work out extensions with franchise defenseman Rasmus Dahlin as well as Owen Power who was a workhorse in his rookie season. Both men are eligible for to sign contract extensions on July 1st and have expressed interest in inking long-term with the Sabres. Lysowski acknowledges that the Sabres don’t have any rush to sign either man to an extension as they both still have a year left on their current deals, but if they were to get the new contracts done on July 1st it would give the Sabres some cost certainty as they head into free agency at what is a critical point in their rebuild.

Dahlin will be looking for a long-term contract and could get something in the range of $9MM to $10MM on a long-term deal. The Swedish defender is coming off a season in which he put up 15 goals and 58 assists in 78 games while playing almost 26 minutes a night. For Power, he could sign long term but may elect to sign a bridge deal in the hopes of maximizing his earnings when he is more established and the salary cap has gone up. In his rookie season he played almost 24 minutes a night and had four goals and 31 assists in 79 games.

In other evening notes:

  • The Charlotte Checkers have announced that they have re-signed right winger Riley Bezeau to a two-year AHL contract. Bezeau spent this past season in the Queen City putting up five goals and three assists in 51 AHL games and finishing second on the team with 84PIM. The 21-year-old was previously an assistant captain of the Saint John Sea Dogs team that captured the Memorial Cup in 2021-22 in a season that saw him post 11 goals and 16 assists in 56 games.
  • The USHL announced today that Glenn Hefferan has been selected as the 11th president and commissioner in league history. Heffernan will take over on July 1st and is familiar with USA hockey having been a board and committee member for several years in various capacities as well as a member of the USA Hockey Executive Committee since June 2021. Back in 2012 Heffernan was awarded the Dr. John J. McMullen Award for service to New Jersey Amateur Hockey, an award he was given by the New Jersey Devils.

Salary Cap Increase Could Be Larger Than Expected

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Joe Smith of The Athletic penned an interesting article today leading to speculation that the NHL salary cap could see a larger increase this summer than the $1MM that was expected. Gary Bettman seemed to temper expectations last week when he said that he still expected the increase to be just the $1MM.

Smith’s league sources say that the number which has been discussed for most of this year doesn’t appear to be final as of right now. The official figure will be announced at the NHL draft and now it appears that there are some negotiations going on behind the scenes to see if there is wiggle room to add to the increase.

Many expect the salary cap to go up between $10MM-$12MM over the next three years based on revenue, leading to a wild disparity for those who become free agents this season versus those who hit the market in 2024 or 2025. The conversation going on behind closed doors appears to be whether the increases could be more proportional starting this year to allow the group of players hitting free agency in a few weeks to have a bit more money in the market to chase.

Any additional cap increase would certainly be welcome news for teams that are currently cap strapped. The Minnesota Wild and Boston Bruins come to mind as both teams stand to lose considerable talent and don’t have much cap room to retain them. The news could also be good for the players that want to stay with their current clubs but aren’t sure the money will be there. An extra one million in cap space could be the difference that allows a player like Alex Killorn to stay with the only team he’s ever known instead of moving on with a new team.

While Smith teases the different possible cap increases over the next three years, he does end the article by stating that the likeliest outcome for next year’s salary cap is a $1MM to $1.5MM increase. This could also affect the contracts that this year’s free agents sign. Players might opt for shorter term deals with the hope that they can cash in down the road when the cap is quite a bit higher. We’ve already seen defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov sign for just two years, despite the Los Angeles Kings pushing for a longer-term arrangement. It could become a major story over the next month or so as more players sign deals for next season.

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