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More Moves Forthcoming For The Philadelphia Flyers

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The Philadelphia Flyers find themselves at the top of the news cycle today after signing defenseman Travis Sanheim to a new deal prior to arbitration. It’s an important deal for the team, as they’ve assured one of their best young players is under contract for the next two seasons.

But with his $4.675MM cap hit come some financial consequences for the Eastern Conference squad. The signing puts them roughly $650,000 over the salary cap Upper Limit of $81.5MM. While perfectly legal during the offseason, Philadelphia won’t be able to carry a full 23-man roster into the season as it stands. The good news is that the team and general manager Chuck Fletcher have two main options to become cap-compliant, but each of those carries some consequences of its own.

The easiest option would be to purely not carry the full 23-man roster with three healthy scratches. Philadelphia has three fringe players, all forwards, currently listed on the 23-man roster who aren’t waiver-eligible: Tanner Laczynski, Jackson Cates, and Morgan Frost. It’s easy enough to send one or two of these younger players down to the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms, creating a cap-compliant opening night roster for Philadelphia. But there’s a certain risk that comes with the convenience of the situation, most notably demonstrated last season by a similar salary cap dance performed by the Vegas Golden Knights. Since having a 22-man roster with just one of these players sent down still only leaves them with $200,000 to $300,000 in cap space, a barrage of short-term injuries could easily force Philadelphia to ice a shorthanded game roster of fewer than 18 skaters. However, if Fletcher feels as though it’s a risk he’s willing to take in order to maintain the strength of his current healthy roster, it’s still a very viable course of action for the Flyers.

The more complex and unlikely option is an additional trade. The Flyers already made one large cap-clearing transaction this summer, dealing Jakub Voracek to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for Cam Atkinson. But as additional relief is needed after Sanheim’s contract, both James van Riemsdyk and/or Travis Konecny could find their way back onto the trade block. Konecny was rumored heavily to be on the move over the past few seasons after falling out of favor at times with head coach Alain Vigneault. His younger age and lower cap hit as compared to van Riemsdyk would likely make him the more attractive option in a trade for teams looking to deal. van Riemsdyk carries significant upside of his own, though, despite his age. He’s still an extremely competent scorer, potting 43 points in 56 games this season. His $7MM cap hit could be tough to swallow for some teams, though, unless it’s more of a true hockey trade like the Voracek deal.

What’s for certain is that Philadelphia will need to make a few changes before they’re ready to go for opening night. While the scale of these are unknown, Philadelphia will look to enter the 2021-22 season with a much-needed refresh to the team’s roster.

All salary cap figures come from CapFriendly.com.

Minnesota Wild Finally Have Salary Cap Certainty For 2021-22

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One of the offseason’s biggest stories has undoubtedly been the salary cap situation of the Minnesota Wild. General manager Bill Guerin was faced with an extremely tricky deck of cards this summer – the team’s three best forwards were all restricted free agents and needed new contracts. With a frozen salary cap and increasing market value, it was never going to be easy for the Wild to continue icing a contending team in 2021-22.

However, with Kevin Fiala inking a one-year $5.1MM contract today to stay in Minnesota, the team finally has some clarity in how they’ll be rolling their lineup in the near future. What’s for certain now is that the team will have enough financial flexibility to have Kirill Kaprizov on the roster, at least for next season. With Fiala signed and a full roster, the Wild have $13.1MM in cap space with only Kaprizov left to sign.

But, it seems with every passing day that Kaprizov’s eventual signing price will likely be astronomical, and on a short-term deal as well. The likely outcome here by most accounts is Kaprizov signing a deal equal to or shorter than four seasons, likely between $7-10MM. It’s certainly doable for 2021-22, but the main concerns have never been just about next year.

Moving forward, it’ll be even tougher for Minnesota to stay cap-compliant. The promise of a slightly increasing Upper Limit helps somewhat, but not by much. While 2022-23 sees the combined $9MM cap hits of Victor Rask and Alex Goligoski vanish, they’ll also need a new deal for Fiala, gritty winger Jordan Greenway, and promising netminder Kaapo Kahkonen. The total cap hit increase of those deals, plus an $8MM increase in cap penalties due to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts, make a scenario in which all three players are retained nearly impossible, even with some team-friendly deals.

The deal Fiala signed is likely very similar to what he would have been awarded had the case gone to arbitration. It doesn’t exactly show long-term commitment to the relationship between player and team, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see another transaction involving Fiala within the next calendar year.

While cost certainty helps create a clearer picture for the upcoming 2021-22 season, the long-term landscape still remains treacherous for the up-and-coming squad.

All salary cap figures from CapFriendly.com

Snapshots: Kaprizov, Elias, Robert Morris

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While no one wants to see dynamic and entertaining talent Kirill Kaprizov leave the NHL after just one year, especially after waiting so long for his arrival, the ongoing negotiations between he, the Minnesota Wild, and allegedly the KHL’s CSKA Moscow has been an intriguing storyline to say the least. However, the recent report that CKSA has an eight-figure offer out to Kaprizov is almost certainly a farce. As first pointed out by Bally Sports’ Andy Strickland, the KHL salary cap is equivalent to about $12MM, making an eight-figure offer one that eats up at least 83% of the team’s payroll on just one player. Even if they did want to make that kind of unrealistic commitment to Kaprizov, the perennial contenders are already flush with talent, including recent NHLers Joakim Nordstrom, Lucas Wallmark, Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Nesterov, and several others. There is no possible way that CSKA can afford Kaprizov for anything more than Minnesota’s best offer, leading Strickland to call this “one of the worst bluffs in sports history.” So, rest easy Wild fans. Minnesota maintains all of the leverage in this negotiation and isn’t about to lose Kaprizov and certainly not to an imaginary KHL offer.

  • Following a strong performance at the recent Hlinka-Gretzky Cup, Sports Illustrated’s Steven Ellis reports that talented young Slovakian goalkeeper Rastislav Elias has decided to make the move to North America and will play in the USHL this season. Unlike the past few draft classes, which have featured elite goaltending prospects that were long considered first-round picks, the title for top goalie prospect in the 2022 NHL Draft is still up for grabs. Elias hopes that by joining the Green Bay Gamblers and testing himself in a new league, having only played in Slovakian juniors to this point, will earn him some consideration for that label. The spotlight will be on Elias in 2021-22, who is already considered one of the top prospects in net alongside Canadian Tyler Brennan and Russian Sergei Ivanov in particular. Not only will NHL teams be eying Elias, but NCAA programs will also be heavily scouting the talented prospect, who is still eligible to go the college route if he so chooses.
  • Robert Morris University made waves this spring – and not the good kind – when they shockingly terminated their men’s and women’s hockey programs. The decision spurned numerous outside efforts to raise money to bring the programs back before the coming season, but there had been no update as to whether those attempts had been successful. That official word came down today, as the Pittsburgh-area university announced that they will not be icing hockey teams in 2021-22. Robert Morris reports that they have raised $1.34MM in contributions and pledges, but would require $1.4MM in immediate contributions and another $1.4MM in future pledges in order to reinstate the programs. The school notes that it is “eyeing [a] comeback in 2022-23” if fundraising continues, but by then the players from both teams likely will have transferred and the program will be starting from scratch. It is a disappointing result and seeming lack of dedication and effort on the part of Robert Morris, especially as schools around the country are adding Division I hockey programs, not subtracting them.

Salary Cap Lower Limit Complicates Jack Eichel Trade

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The Buffalo Sabres have been expected to trade Jack Eichel for months. His neck injury this season caused a difference of opinion between his camp and the team, leading to a lack of trust, which only exasperated a tough situation. Eichel has been in Buffalo for six seasons but has still not suited up for a single playoff game. On the other side, the Sabres have been paying him $10MM per season for three years without any postseason revenue to show for it. A split seemed inevitable, but there are many complicating factors.

One of them that has been discussed at length is that $10MM cap hit and how it is difficult for other teams to fit under the cap ceiling. Eichel is a top player when healthy, but his injury situation makes it an extremely risky proposition for anyone interested in acquiring his services.

There’s another complication caused by his contract though, and this one has gotten far less attention. In fact, it’s basically the opposite problem of an acquiring team not being able to afford Eichel. The Sabres can’t really afford to take him off the books at this point.

Right now, there are two teams in the league that are actually well short of the salary cap’s lower limit of $60.2MM–the Ottawa Senators and, you guessed it, the Buffalo Sabres. According to CapFriendly, Buffalo currently sits at a projected cap hit for the 2021-22 season of just $52,897,763, more than $7.3MM under the lower limit. “But they have Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju to sign!” you might say, and that’s true, those three restricted free agents will likely take them well over the salary cap floor.

The problem is, that projection is including the $10MM owed to Eichel. If the team trades him, suddenly they’re more than $17.3MM under the lower limit, a number that will be a lot harder to make up with three restricted free agent deals.

Buffalo has already moved out some of their high-priced talent this offseason, trading away Rasmus Ristolainen and Sam Reinhart. They watched Linus Ullmark and Jake McCabe walk in free agency, replacing them with 40-year-old Craig Anderson for league minimum and Mark Pysyk at $900K. For whatever reason, they had the New Jersey Devils retain part of Will Butcher’s contract, making him cost even less for them.

Moving Eichel out of this financial puzzle right now for nothing but futures would mean several other moves would have to follow just to get the Sabres cap compliant for the start of the year. This isn’t really a situation that has ever played out in the NHL, but it’s one of their own making. Buffalo has been aggressively shedding salary all summer to restock the prospect and draft cupboards, but the side effect of those moves is that the last big chip is now an even more complicated piece to trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pittsburgh Penguins Content With Tristan Jarry As Starter

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Heading into the off-season, the Pittsburgh Penguins seemed destined to bring in a new goaltender. GM Ron Hextall more than hinted at his desire to add an established veteran to the mix alongside young Tristan Jarry, whose play suffered this past season. Yet, the status quo remains in the Pittsburgh net with Jarry and injury-prone backup Casey DeSmith. 

The root of this unexpected lack of change at the goalie position lies in the salary cap. Even with the departures of Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev, the Penguins are still right up against the upper limit. To this point, high-priced trade chips Jason Zucker, Marcus Pettersson, and Mike Matheson have yet to move, which leaves the team with little wiggle room in the free agent market. With what small space they had, the team opted to replace Tanev and McCann with Brock McGinn and Danton Heinen rather than address the goaltender position.

If and when the team is able to clear some space, perhaps adding a goalie will return to the forefront of their off-season objectives. The free agent market has largely been left bare, but the team could target a trade option such as Dallas’ Ben Bishop or Anton Khudobin, while Joonas Korpisalo, Alexandar Georgiev, and Malcolm Subban are other options believed to be available.

However, the team appears to no longer feel that they absolutely must add a goaltender before next season. Speaking with NHL.com’s Wes Crosby, Hextall stated that he believes Jarry is “going to bounce back” to starter quality for the Penguins this season. The 26-year-old did post a .921 save percentage and 2.43 GAA just a year ago, but those numbers fell to .909 and 2.75 this season. Most jarring was Jarry’s poor performance in the playoffs, in which he looked totally outmatched. Yet, Hextall – a former goalie himself – is confident that Jarry can return to form even without competition from a veteran addition. It seems he trusts DeSmith, who should be recovered from off-season surgery in time for the new campaign, as the backup again as well. This newfound confidence could be a product of the lacking talent available elsewhere or perhaps even some optimism for highly-regarded college free agent addition Filip Lindberg. Whatever the reason, the front office has changed their tune and Penguins fans have to hope that it all works out for the team as their championship window begins to close.

Salary Cap Increases Expected To Be Minimal Through 2025-26

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The good news is, the salary cap could increase by $1MM for the 2022-23 season. The bad news is, significant movement of the upper limit is not expected until 2026-27. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports that the league is projecting a $4.8B hockey-related revenue for the 2021-22 season, which will actually mean the escrow debt that the players owe will actually increase. Seravalli expects there to be a $1MM increase in each of the next four offseasons as the revenues bounce back and players are able to pay off the $1.1B in debt.

When revenues dropped significantly last year, it caused a huge discrepancy in the normal 50-50 split between player salaries and owner revenues. Suddenly, players were being paid much more than their allotted half, meaning the difference would have been held in escrow. In the CBA negotiations that took place last year, the players and owners agreed to a salary deferral and fixed escrow rates, in exchange for a (relatively) flat cap until those debts—the ones caused by player salaries far outreaching 50% of hockey-related revenue—were paid back. Seravalli reports that the balance owed is expected to reach $1.1B after final accounting of the 2020-21 season.

If there are just $1MM increases in each of the next four offseasons, teams will have to be extremely careful how they spend money. Seven teams are already over the cap ceiling for next year, and though long-term injured reserve can help some of them, there’s just not a lot of wiggle room to work with. It also may explain why three teams are currently under the lower limit, with money still to spend to get to the cap floor of $60.2MM. Thirteen teams currently have cap commitments of less than $70MM for the 2021-22 season, giving them room to operate moving forward (while keeping costs down in the meantime).

A $1MM increase may seem like a good thing after three years at the same $81.5MM, but the squeeze is going to be apparent quickly as we move through the next few seasons without any meaningful change.

Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Ondrej Kase

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High ceiling, low floor. That’s what comes with skilled forward Ondrej Kase. When healthy, Kase’s talent is apparent. The 25-year-old winger has a 20-goal season on his resume and has scored at nearly a half-point per-game pace in his young career. The problem is that Kase has only played in 207 games through five NHL seasons, averaging just a half-season’s worth of games per year due to injury. The Boston Bruins learned the hard way that Kase cannot be relied upon, as he played in just nine regular season games total with the team after coming over from the Anaheim Ducks at the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline. This past year, he missed all but three games due to a head injury in the second game of the season and left his return game early, unable to handle getting checked.

Yet, the Bruins still nearly extended him a $2.6MM qualifying offer this summer. Bruins GM Don Sweeney had planned on retaining the dynamic, but fragile forward but changed course. The fact that Kase even remained in consideration for a new deal at that price point speaks to the upside that he brings if he can get healthy and stay healthy.

The Toronto Maple Leafs appear willing to take that chance. The team has announced a one-year, $1.25MM with Kase. While the term mitigates some risk of Kase being unable to return to form following a year missed almost entirely due to concussion symptoms, the Maple Leafs still had to commit over $1MM in order to sign Kase. That signing puts Toronto right up against the salary cap with their projected 23-man roster; so much so in fact that if Kase is on regular injured reserve, the Leafs will not have the room to even recall a minimum salary player to replace him. The trade-off of course is that a healthy Kase will be an excellent addition to their forward corps as a player who can skate with their stars and produce points. It is the ultimate boom-or-bust bargain for Toronto.

New York Rangers Obtain Signing Rights To Barclay Goodrow

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Forward Barclay Goodrow is slated for unrestricted free agency on July 28 and in the meantime very well might be left exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft, leaving him free to negotiate with the Seattle Kraken. However, should he not sign with Seattle, Goodrow’s exclusive negotiating rights now belong to the New York Rangers. The team took the minor risk of getting a head start on contract talks with the two-way winger by sending a 2022 seventh-round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for his expiring contract. That risk will be well worth it if Goodrow signs with New York, as he was expected to draw considerable interest on the open market. The Lightning were not able to extend Goodrow due to salary cap concerns, so they will happily settle for an extra draft pick.

While Goodrow was known as a good two-way forward during his time in San Jose, he blossomed over the past two seasons in Tampa. His offense has improved as has his physicality, creating a dangerous bottom-six combination. A hard-nosed player who excels at even strength and on the penalty kill, Goodrow could assist the Rangers in a number of ways. Namely, new GM Chris Drury wanted to make the team more difficult to play against and adding Goodrow would accomplish that.

However, New York needs to be careful not to negotiate against themselves in this situation. While there has already been rampant speculation that Goodrow could command a long-term contract or considerable salary this off-season, that is with the presumption that he reaches the open market. The Rangers have too many promising young players that will need expensive extensions down the road, not to mention a major hole at top-six center, to get roped into overpaying for a bottom-six forward. Their only competition for Goodrow right now is the Seattle Kraken, otherwise they would be wise to negotiate as if they have exclusive rights and try to keep Goodrow’s value from being artificially inflated before free agency begins.

Flyers To Expose Jakub Voracek In NHL Expansion Draft

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The Philadelphia Flyers and longtime franchise standout Jakub Voracek are heading for an interesting off-season. The two sides are at a cross roads with the Flyers hoping to improve and get back to the playoffs, but with limited salary cap space to do so. The team currently has just 14 players signed to one-way contracts for next season, but at a sum of $64.78MM, leaving them with only $16.72MM to add nine more players to the roster, including re-signing several key restricted free agents and ideally adding a top-four defenseman and reliable goaltender. The math doesn’t quite add up and Voracek’s $8.25MM AAV over three more seasons does not help. Voracek’s production is still strong, but has been in decline since a career year in 2017-18 and is currently not at the level expected given his lofty salary. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the relationship between the club and the soon-to-be 32-year-old winger are “not acrimonious”, as the two sides agree that a change of scenery may be in the best interest of both.

In order to accomplish that separation, the Flyers are not above giving Voracek away. Friedman writes that the veteran has been informed that he will be exposed in the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft, giving the Seattle Kraken the first shot at adding the former All-Star. This has been speculated by many given both the Flyers’ cap concerns but also their depth at forward. With at least forwards that deserve consideration for protection, including Voracek, and only a maximum of seven protection slots up front, Philadelphia will have to make some difficult calls. Exposing Voracek is confirmed to be one of them. While the cap commitment is an obstacle, Voracek has averaged close to 20 goals and 65 points at a full-season pace for the past dozen years and can still be a top-six forward for the right team. Losing an asset like that for nothing could be a difficult, but necessary move for the Flyers. The Kraken meanwhile have some incentive to take high-priced players, as they must hit a salary minimum in the Expansion Draft. While a number of expensive contracts will be available, Seattle head coach Dave Hakstol, the former head coach of the Flyers during some of Voracek’s best seasons, could be keen to bring in his former star.

[RELATED – Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers]

Of course, the Kraken will have other options from Philadelphia as well, quite possibly even another high-priced but valuable scorer in James van Riemsdyk, as well as some young forwards and affordable defensemen. If they opt not to select Voracek, Friedman notes that the Flyers will move on and begin trade talks with other teams (if they haven’t already). While they won’t get fair market value for the accomplished scorer given their well-established cap issues, they will at least have a chance to get something back for Voracek in a trade as opposed to Expansion Draft selection.

If however, they can’t find a trade that they feel is fair, Friedman also notes that the two sides have an understanding that he may stay put and appear to be okay with that outcome, although it would leave the Flyers with a cap headache still to solve. With multiple potential outcomes, this summer could be a rollercoaster for Philadelphia and Voracek, but his old coach and the league’s newest team have the option of making it a short ride.

Tampa Bay Lightning Face Salary Cap Crunch

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Much has been made over the Tampa Bay Lightning’s usage of LTIR loopholes this season, especially after winger Nikita Kucherov returned from injury to lead the team in scoring en route to a second-straight championship. But with Tampa Bay advantageously using the expiring contracts of both Marian Gaborik and Anders Nilsson to add to their LTIR relief, they won’t have the opportunity next season to do the same.

The Lightning currently sit $3.52MM over the $81.5MM Upper Limit, and that’s with an already depleted roster. There are multiple takeaways from this.

For one, it’s unlikely that any notable pending Lightning unrestricted free agent re-signs with the team. As their priority stands to clear salary, it’s becoming more and more apparent that the 2021-22 Tampa Bay Lightning squad won’t have the experienced depth of years past. While they did well to extend certain depth pieces like Patrick Maroon on cheap, multi-year deals into next season, others like Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow won’t be able to fit under the flat salary cap.

Conversely, it’s likely that the Lightning will rely even more on young, in-house depth to fill out the roster around their core pieces. They’ll need repeat performances from players like Ross Colton and steps forward from players like Mathieu Joseph and Alex Barre-Boulet in order to generate any level of depth scoring.

But what really sticks out is that aforementioned $3.52MM number. That’s only taking 16 skaters and one goaltender into account, meaning that the Bolts will need to clear multiple contracts in order to be cap-compliant and ice a full roster on opening night. It’s likely that two out of the trio of Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, and Alex Killorn will have to be moved this offseason in order to fit salary constraints. Tampa probably prefers it to be the first two names on that list, as Killorn has been an indelible piece in their top-six in recent years.

There are options for the Bolts with the expansion draft looming. While moving any of those three players can be somewhat challenging due to their no-trade clauses, the Lightning can ship an additional asset to Seattle via trade to ensure that the Kraken will take a specific player at the draft. It might be a necessary solution, no matter how tough to swallow it is so soon after a Stanley Cup win.

All contract information is via CapFriendly.

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