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Rangers Have An Opportunity To Strike Early In Trade Market

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The concept of the time value of money is a very common one in investing.  Your money is worth a certain amount today but ideally grows over time.  A similar philosophy applies in the NHL when it comes to cap space – $1MM at the start of the season can be worth around $4MM at the trade deadline so teams wisely try to save what they have, hope for minimal injuries, and that would put them in a position to add a useful piece or two for the stretch run.

The end result of such a philosophy is a trade market that has basically resembled that of Major League Baseball since the start of December, notwithstanding a couple of minor AHL swaps last week.  (If you don’t follow MLB, they’ve been in a lockout since then with no trades allowed.)  For the most part, that’s probably not going to change over the next few weeks as many contenders have cap space ranging from none to minimal with a hope that between now and the deadline, it could improve to a level that could be considered as slightly better than nothing.  Such is life in a league where half the teams are technically over the cap and are using LTIR to get into compliance.

That provides an opportunity for a contender that’s fortunate to have cap space to make a move now to get a leg up on their competition.  Only one such team in the top seven in the NHL standings heading into Monday’s games is in that situation and that’s the New York Rangers.

So far, they’ve been linked to many different players with former Ranger J.T. Miller being the headliner.  Some of the others are on expiring contracts and there needs to at least be a mixture as new contracts for Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox add $11.725MM to next season’s payroll compared to what they’re making now.  With nearly $71MM in commitments to 16 players per CapFriendly, there is some room for a longer-term addition but some of their pickups will need to be rentals as well.

Right now, they’re pegged to finish the season with $7.056MM in cap space, an amount that’s equivalent to $17.2MM today and $35.2M at the trade deadline.  Yes, they have some bonuses to factor in but the struggles of Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko limit that somewhat.  Fox will reach his $850K but his bonuses should be the only ones of any sort of consequence.  So if you’re working backward, New York needs to have at least $850K in room at the end of the season.  Even if you add a few hundred thousand as a safety net for some of their other youngsters and factor in that they’re just carrying the minimum-sized roster due to the All-Star break, we’re only looking at holding back around 15-20% of their end-of-season cap room and a few million off the present value of contracts they can acquire right now.

That means that New York could add comfortably more than $10MM in salaries today to their roster.  That’s enough to add an impact player up front and some depth in the bottom six which is an area of concern for the Rangers at the moment with even perhaps having enough left over to shore up their back end.  There’s a reasonable chance that will be about all of the spending they’re going to do between now and the deadline; no one should be expecting GM Chris Drury to bring in five or six new players between now and March 21st.  That would be asking a lot of any team.

In that sense, there isn’t much of a need for them to wait.  While many contenders will have to wait until more time elapses resulting in less salary to take on, the Rangers can go after their targets aggressively now.  Waiting until closer to the deadline will bring in more contenders for their desired players which could drive the price tag higher.  With that in mind, there’s a case to make that paying a little more now to get the player is worth doing, ensuring they get their targets and getting several weeks of extra games out of them in the process.

Patience is often a good characteristic but for New York, the time may be right to be aggressive and strike early on the trade front.  With their cap situation, they’ll be a team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trade Rumors: Canadiens, Petry, Stars, Coyotes

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Though unimaginable just a few short months ago, the defending Stanley Cup finalist Montreal Canadiens are fully open for business, according to new GM Kent Hughes. Hughes tells TSN’s Pierre LeBrun that the team is “open to everything” when it comes to trading away players amidst this dismal season. Montreal is on pace for a historically poor campaign and Hughes must do all he can to try to right the ship. It remains to be seen if that is just moving some select players or an outright fire sale. Confounding the situation is the fact that the Habs are not your typical sellers; the team has just a handful of expiring contracts to ship off as rentals and is mired in long-term contracts. Montreal has more than $70MM in annual salary committed through the 2023-24 season, with many contracts extending well beyond that point too. So while Hughes can name drop Ben Chiarot as a player who he has discussed the possibility of a trade with, the critical moves for the Canadiens will not be the obvious rentals but getting out from under some of their long-term commitments. Is that something that Hughes can do before the trade deadline or will the dismantling of the roster truly begin this offseason?

  • At least one term player who could be on the move is veteran defenseman Jeff Petry, whose name has begun to circulate on the rumor mill alongside Chiarot’s. Petry is suffering through an uncharacteristically bad season, which understandably makes the Canadiens wary of the remaining three years left on his $6.25MM AAV contact. While only mentioning Chiarot by name, Hughes noted to LeBrun that he had begun discussing trade potential with a number of his veteran players, in part to determine how they were feeling about being a part of the current Habs roster. It seems Petry was one of these players and didn’t hide that he was equally dissatisfied with being in Montreal as the club has been with his performance. On TSN’s “Insider Trading”, LeBrun reported that Petry has indicated that he is open to moving on. More specifically, he would actually “welcome a trade.” LeBrun hears that one team who could be interest in Petry becomes attainable are the Dallas Stars, who seem to be moving on shortly from a cornerstone right-handed defenseman of their own in John Klingberg. If the Stars want Petry though, they will have to pay up. Hughes was adamant that he will not trade Petry at a discount due to his poor play and the team’s struggles this season, a policy that he may apply to all of his core players. This could lead to trades for Petry and others having to wait until the summer or perhaps even next season when the memory of the horrific 2021-22 Montreal Canadiens has faded in the minds of potential suitors.
  • One other hindrance to the Habs’ ability to make trades this season is an inability (or unwillingness) to retain salary. Montreal is currently in the Long-Term Injured Reserve salary cap overage and actually have the highest real money payroll in the league currently. Especially when it comes to term players, Hughes is not going to want to add any more unnecessary salary to his roster, even though doing so has become a common way for sellers to land improved trade returns. However, there is good news for the 16 other teams currently in the LTIR or with less than a minimum salary’s worth of cap space – the Arizona Coyotes are still willing to play ball. The ’Yotes jumped head first into their rebuild this past offseason when they took on the likes of Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel, Anton Stralman, Andrew Ladd, and Shayne Gostisbehere from cap-strapped teams in order to land a treasure trove of draft picks as well. Looking at a whopping seven picks in the first two rounds of the 2022 NHL Draft and plenty of cap space still to spend, GM Bill Armstrong is ready to keep it going. With a cap number that is already among the bottom third of the league and an incredible $36MM coming off the books this summer in unrestricted free agents, the Coyotes are willing and able to keep taking on bad contracts in trades, reports TSN’s Chris Johnston. With that being said, as the team looks to improve next season from a 2021-22 pace that would be worst in the league if not for Montreal, Johnston notes that Armstrong and company will be a bit more particular about who they are willing to take on this time around. The caliber of the player going to Arizona appears to be more of a concern than the weight of the contract as the ’Yotes hope to make progress in their rebuild while also taking advantage of the salary cap.

Early Postponements Could Provide Salary Cap Opportunity

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Today marks the first day of the second half of the season, whether it feels like it or not. The 2021-22 campaign began on October 12, 2021, which was 100 days ago, half of this year’s 200-day NHL season. Despite that, teams like the New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators have played just 32 of a scheduled 82 games, less than 40 percent of their season. In fact, only the Tampa Bay Lightning, Nashville Predators, and Anaheim Ducks have reached the halfway point in terms of games played, with most teams falling somewhere between 35-38 because of the hundred-plus postponed games in the early part of the season.

With that in mind, there is actually an interesting opportunity for teams that have a condensed schedule in the coming months. Since a player’s cap hit is applied to a team’s finances on a daily basis, anyone acquired today would be added at half of their original average annual value. That is to say, as PuckPedia explains on Twitter, a player with a full-season cap hit of $5MM would only need $2.5MM in cap space from here on out. With more than 60 percent of the games left for some teams, that offers some increased value for any acquisition—basically, they’ll play in more games for the new team than they’re paid for.

There could even be more savings if a team waited until the optimal time. Take the Islanders for example, who like the rest of the NHL had their February Olympic break filled up yesterday with the revised schedule. The team has seven more games before the All-Star break, at which point they will be off for another week. As they head into their February 9 game against the Vancouver Canucks, 120 of 200 days will have passed in the NHL season—60 percent—yet they will have played only 39 games out of 82, not quite 48 percent of the schedule.

While the Islanders are still struggling to even get above .500 and may not be the most likely to take advantage of this opportunity, it is present for other contenders as well. The Minnesota Wild have played just 35 games to this point, the Carolina Hurricanes and Boston Bruins just 36. With some smart maneuvering, these teams could get more than half a season of performance from a new player, while paying him quite a bit less.

This opportunity is most apparent for teams that have been able to stay out of long-term injured reserve, accruing cap space all season. The Wild, for instance, are on track to have more than $15MM in deadline cap space according to CapFriendly, obviously enough to add several impact players. The Bruins meanwhile will have more than $8.2MM in deadline cap space, and have played fewer games than all of the other contenders in the Atlantic Division.

In a league where every single dollar has come into focus during a flat-cap period, any advantage is important. For some teams, adding reinforcements for what will be a war of attrition down the stretch could come at a considerable financial bargain.

NHL Announces More Postponements

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The NHL has officially announced the temporary formation of taxi squads and three additional postponements. The following games will be rescheduled for later in the season:

  • Columbus Blue Jackets at Chicago Blackhawks, December 28
  • Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs, December 29
  • Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators, December 29

The other games scheduled for Tuesday are set to play as originally planned, though there will be continued testing that could change that. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff writes that more players are expected to be placed in the COVID protocol tomorrow when test results have been confirmed.

In addition to the postponements, the league has officially revealed the new taxi squad rules. As previously reported, they will be in place from today through each team’s final game prior to the All-Star Break. It will have a maximum of six players at any time, will be subject to normal waiver requirements and no player may spend more than 20 cumulative days on the taxi squad.

There have also been temporary modifications to the CBA, allowing some salary cap relief for clubs dealing with COVID absences. Roster Emergency Exception recalls are now allowed to be players with a cap hit of up to $1MM (previously it had been limited at $850K). Teams can now recall a goaltender under emergency conditions–i.e. if they have fewer than two goaltenders on the active roster–without playing a game short. That means we won’t continue to see EBUGs pop up around the league (or at least not as often).

The full changes can be found here.

Roster Notes: Lehkonen, Korpisalo, Maple Leafs

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As the Montreal Canadiens continue to falter in 2021-22, now last in the Eastern Conference and leading the league in goals allowed, a fire sale seems imminent for the franchise. As pundits across North America discuss who could be moving on from the Habs, a story has emerged from TVA’s Renaud Lavoie about one potential candidate who was nearly moved last season. Lavoie reported on their air on Saturday that the Canadiens and St. Louis Blues had a deal in place for forward Artturi Lehkonen at the deadline, which would have seen Sammy Blais go the other way. However, a condition of the deal was an extension for Lehkonen, then an impending restricted free agent, and the restricted free agent refused to agree to a new contract with the Blues, nixing the trade. The 26-year-old ended up re-signing for just one year with Montreal this summer and will be an RFA once more this off-season. However, it seems more and more unlikely that he will be negotiating with the Habs once again, as Lehkonen’s scoring is up from last season, making him an attractive trade piece for the Canadiens. Although Blais is now a member of the New York Rangers, the Blues could still be a suitor for Lehkonen with a different offer if they can make the cap implications work. The forward could be seen as a rental or as a long-term investment which should provide a deep pool of potential trade partners for the new front office administration in Montreal.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets could be forced to make a significant roster move later this season, but hopefully it does not come to that. The Finnish government released a list of names this week that included professional athletes who had not completed their required military service. All male citizens of Finland are conscripted to serve a certain number of days – 165, 255 or 347 days depending on the assignment – of military service and must meet this requirement between the ages of 18 and 28. Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo turns 28 this spring and has yet to complete any of his required service. Korpisalo tells The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline that he regrets putting it off, but he has had his in-season obligations every year since he was 18 and never wanted to disrupt his off-season training schedule in the summers. The Finnish government stated that those athletes who had not yet met this civic duty would be enlisted to begin service on April 11, 2022. Well, Columbus’ regular season does not end until April 29 and the team currently sits just one spot outside of playoff position as well. Korpisalo’s response to the possibility of missing time because of conscription: “If they want to come get me, come get me. I’m not leaving during my season.” Hopefully it doesn’t reach that point for Korpisalo and the Jackets, but it does seem like the goaltender at least plans to serve his time this summer. He has little choice as the Finnish government will not renew his passport if he does not complete his required service before turning 29, making it impossible for him to travel to North America let alone play in the NHL. This is especially concerning for Korpisalo this summer, when he will be an unrestricted free agent. While the veteran keeper expects that a “special arrangement” will be made that allows him to complete his current season, serve his time in the off-season, and be ready for next season, wherever that may be, the last-minute nature of the situation could still prove problematic. This likely isn’t the last we have heard about Korpisalo’s military requirements and its impact on his playing career.
  • Ilya Mikheyev appears to be getting closer to a return to the Toronto Maple Leafs lineup. The Hockey News’ David Alter reports that both Mikheyev and defenseman Travis Dermott will be evaluated on Tuesday for a potential return against the Edmonton Oilers. Getting the skilled forward back from Long-Term Injured Reserve will be a nice boost for the Leafs, but it of course raises questions as well. Toronto is currently $4.9MM over the salary cap, but this is permissible given the LTIR usage afforded by Mikheyev and Mitch Marner. However, once Marner is healthy as well, a roster crunch will set in for the Leafs if no more extended injuries have arisen. Even if no one is on injured reserve at the time and the likes of Alex Steeves and Kyle Clifford have likely been bumped from the roster to accommodate the additions up front of Mikheyev and Marner, the team will still be over the salary cap. If the Leafs want to carry the full 23 skaters, they will need to save room for at least a minimum $750K contract too. This could result in a notable player being traded or waived in order to become cap compliant. For a number of bottom-six forwards, the return of Mikheyev is a warning and they have until Marner returns to prove that they belong on the team or else could be the one forced out of town.

St. Louis Blues Announce Several Roster Moves

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The St. Louis Blues continue to move players on and off the roster in an attempt to stay salary cap compliant while they deal with injuries and COVID absences. Today, several transactions were processed to make the puzzle pieces together. The team has moved David Perron to long-term injured reserve, while putting Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn on normal injured reserve. Tyler Bozak and Justin Faulk have been activated from the COVID protocol, while Alexei Toropchenko has been recalled.

Perron’s LTIR designation is retroactive to November 27, just after the last game he played in, meaning he won’t have to wait much longer if he is healthy enough to return. LTIR requires a player to miss either ten games or 24 days (whichever is longer), meaning he could potentially return for the Blues’ game next Tuesday. That gives the team some time to operate with the extra cap relief and hopefully get Jordan Binnington back out of the COVID protocol.

Faulk and Bozak’s return is a huge positive, given how the protocol affects a team’s cap. Their hits still counted toward the $81.5MM cap ceiling despite being unavailable, leading to the Blues playing shorthanded several times. If they’re healthy enough to return, it will be a big help while figuring out the rest of the roster.

Toropchenko meanwhile will be facing his NHL debut should he get into a game. The 22-year-old forward has nine points in 22 games with the Springfield Thunderbirds this season after spending last year in the KHL. The 6’3″ winger hasn’t shown a huge amount of offensive upside, but can add another big body to the Blues’ bottom-six–something head coach Craig Berube has used consistently since arriving in St. Louis.

NHL Updates Salary Cap Projections

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NHL commissioner Gary Bettman and deputy commissioner Bill Daly held media availability today from the board of governors meeting and updated several important issues. While noting that it will be an NHLPA decision on whether or not to participate in the Olympics, and reassuring that there is no issue with the Arizona Coyotes, perhaps the firmest news that Bettman could share was that of salary cap projections moving forward.

After announcing that hockey-related revenues will reach close to $5.2B for this season, the league will indeed increase the salary cap for next season by $1MM. That means an $82.5MM cap ceiling, the same number that was projected several months ago by Daily Faceoff.

Importantly though, Bettman explained that it will not take quite as long for the players to repay the escrow debt as originally expected. The league should be made whole at the end of the 2024-25 season, meaning a substantial salary cap increase could follow that summer. That’s a year earlier than many projections showed months ago, and speaks to just how well the revenues of the league have rebounded this season.

At the start of the year, the players owed more than $1B in escrow debt to the owners, and instead of all at once, have agreed to a slower repayment schedule. The escrow rate dropped this year from around 20 percent to 17 and is expected to drop to around 10 for the 2022-23 season.

For the teams that are in salary cap trouble at the moment, still trying to negotiate a ceiling that hasn’t moved in the last couple of years, a $1MM increase isn’t going to help very much. But the expectation of it spiking in 2025-26 is good news, especially for those that are trending toward a competitive window at that point.

Poll: How Should The Montreal Canadiens Handle This Season?

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The Montreal Canadiens are one of just three teams that have already hit the 20-game benchmark this season. Their campaign is already a quarter complete – and they have 12 points to show for it. The reigning Stanley Cup finalists are tied for 31st in the NHL with a .300 record in what can only be described as a nightmare start to the year. The team is spending beyond the salary cap on a roster chock full of long-term contracts for players in the primes of their careers. They certainly did not expect to be in this spot, especially after last season’s playoff success. So where do the Canadiens go from here?

There are essentially three schools of thought when a team reaches a crossroads during the season, and that point in time does not need to be the trade deadline. They can buy, they can sell, or they can stand pat. All three strategies have merit, but the Habs would be wise to pick one and stick to it this season.

The team could certainly try to fight their way out of this funk. It would not be the first time in Montreal history that an underperforming team found a way to turn it around and make the playoffs only to hit their stride in the postseason. The Canadiens just made a surprise run last season and, at least on paper, have the pieces to do it again. As bad as the team has been so far this season, there has to be regression to the mean coming for their numerous talented scorer and stout defenders, right? There is also the potential for a Carey Price return and improved health across the roster to bring a boost to the team. However, if the plan is to compete then Montreal cannot just wait around for a spark. They need to shake up the roster and make a notable addition or two in the near future. It’s certainly a risk, but the reward for the team and its fans alike is the end to their current misery.

On the other hand, the team could look upward at the steep hill they have to climb and go in the opposite direction. The Atlantic Division is arguably the strongest in the NHL and it isn’t getting any easier any time soon. If the Habs’ current roster can perform this poorly, then they likely won’t be competitive in the Atlantic moving forward, never mind this season. A name like Brendan Gallagher or Tyler Toffoli or even Jeff Petry (though his appeal has taken a major hit) could draw a significant trade return to help the Canadiens re-tool and look toward the future. It would be a disappointing turn following last season’s success, but could be the right call given their struggles. The bright silver lining to tanking of course is remaining in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick and consensus top prospect Shane Wright. Wright could be a top line center and perhaps even a franchise player for the Canadiens and removing as much talent from their roster as is reasonably possible will help them stay at the bottom of the league standings and boost their odds in the draft lottery.

The final option is to do nothing. It actually has the potential benefits of either loading up or blowing it up, but requires no action at all. It could be the perfect plan for the Canadiens, given GM Marc Bergevin is expected by many to depart after this season, if not sooner. Rather than let Bergevin make moves in a futile attempt to save his job or impress future employers, Montreal could choose to just ride the season out. There is enough talent on the roster that they could turn the season around without making any moves. They also might never break out of their slump and remain in contention for the top draft spot. The latter could be helped along by making some easy deals like trading the expiring contracts of Ben Chiarot, Brett Kulak, Artturi Lehkonen, Cedric Paquette, or Mathieu Perreault without doing anything earth-shattering. Of course, doing nothing runs the risk of achieving neither goal. The Canadiens are better than their current .300 record, but they likely aren’t good enough to crack the Eastern Conference playoff picture either, especially with this deficit. They could end up outside the postseason and with poor lottery odds. Standing pat also leaves fans with little guidance as to the teams direction in the short-term or the long-term. However, sometimes the right move in a disappointing season is just to call it and try again next year rather than do more damage by overreacting.

What do you think? Are the Habs good enough to get back to relevance this year if they can shake up the roster? Are they as bad as they have looked and need to start the rebuild now? Or is this just a fluke of a season that deserves to be  forgotten with an eye on a fresh start next year?

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More Moves Are Necessary For The Vegas Golden Knights

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Today was certainly a day to be happy for Vegas Golden Knights fans. The team acquired a top-ten center in the league in Jack Eichel while only losing one piece each from their prospect and draft pool.

However, the reality stands that Eichel isn’t free. He’s currently in the fourth year of an eight-year, $80MM deal that counts against the salary cap for $10M per year.

The Knights are doing a delicate dance with the salary cap’s Upper Limit, shifting both Eichel and Mark Stone to long-term injured reserve today to accommodate the transaction. They join Max Pacioretty on the list, meaning the entirety of what’s expected to be Vegas’ top line is on LTIR.

Now, this number is expected to decrease slightly as they send some players down as the team gets healthier, but CapFriendly lists the Golden Knights with a $91.8MM cap hit, just over $10M above the $81.5MM Upper Limit.

While the team should be able to activate Pacioretty and Stone without issue, it’ll be impossible as things currently stand to activate Eichel when he’s expected to return in February or March. The team will need to have a cap hit below the $81.5MM Upper Limit at that point in order to do so.

Needless to say, moves will need to happen for Vegas to shed enough salary to become cap-compliant. It’s no small amount of money, either, as they’ll likely need to offload $7-8MM in order to make things work.

Reilly Smith and the one year remaining on a deal paying him $5MM per season scream out as a likely candidate to be traded by the Knights. If Eichel is healthy prior to the trade deadline, it’s entirely feasible that Vegas could flip him to quite literally anyone. They could operate as a seller and trade Smith to a contender in the Eastern Conference, or trade him to a seller that could then flip him at the deadline.

If clearing that isn’t enough, the team could look at trading or waiving Brayden McNabb and his $2.5MM cap hit. He too is in the last year of his contract, and his role with the team is quickly being made expendable with the emergence of Nicolas Hague.

Regardless, it’s a surefire conclusion that the makeup of the team will need to be cheaper when Eichel is healthy and ready to play.

San Jose Sharks Approaching Decision On William Eklund

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The entry-level slide is a rather well-known concept now in the salary cap world. Otherwise known as the ’nine-game rule’, it permits teams to conserve years on an 18- or 19-year-old player’s entry-level contract by deferring or sliding the start of the contract by a season (or two), provided they don’t play nine games or less at the NHL level in a season.

It’s not something often thought about with players of European origin, as it’s rather uncommon for a European-based player to make a team out of camp at this age unless fully NHL-ready. But the San Jose Sharks took a chance this year on 2020 draft selection William Eklund, and it’s largely paid off. As the team’s roared off to a 4-1-0 start, they’ve largely been propelled by the competence of their rookie class — including Eklund. With three assists in four games, Eklund’s showing flashes of potential and already showing the value the Sharks got with a seventh-overall selection.

Yet Eklund was scratched today for their first loss of the season against the Boston Bruins, allowing Alexander Barabanov to draw back into the lineup. Eklund’s spent the season playing on a line with Tomas Hertl and Rudolfs Balcers, but sits as a -3 with none of his points coming at even strength.

There’s no doubt that Eklund was a slam-dunk selection, but if he can’t stick in the lineup, it would be the wiser move to loan him back to his native Sweden without burning the first year of his contract. The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz notes that the team is likely to take as long as possible before making that choice, giving Eklund every chance to prove that he can stay in the lineup at the NHL level this season. But the team, understandably, also doesn’t want him spending too much time in the press box, especially after he impressed with 23 points in 40 SHL games last season with Djurgardens IF.

Regardless, the Sharks can dress Eklund in five more games before being able to loan him back to Sweden without burning a season on his entry-level deal. For a team that now looks to be on the rise sooner rather than later, it could be a choice with long-term ramifications in terms of his second contract.

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