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NHL Hoping To Set Cap Ceiling For 2025-26 Before Trade Deadline

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There’s optimism around the NHL announcing the upper limit for the 2025-26 season’s salary cap before the March 7 trade deadline, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet writes Thursday.

Doing so would allow teams significantly more advanced planning than they’re used to in several ways. Official numbers for cap changes usually aren’t announced until a few weeks prior to the new league year, meaning general managers would now have months instead of weeks to execute extension negotiations better. There’s also a chance that the league’s boom in hockey-related revenue coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic will allow them to announce preset cap numbers for the 2026-27 and potentially 2027-28 campaigns as well, Friedman wrote.

The current projection for next season’s salary cap laid out by commissioner Gary Bettman last month is $92.4MM, but better revenue projections over the past few weeks have added fuel to the fire of a significantly higher increase. Player agents have predicated an increase to as high as $97MM for 2025-26, Friedman wrote, a $9MM jump from this year’s $88MM ceiling.

Surging revenues are also putting more money into players’ pockets this season. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reported over the weekend that the league has terminated escrow withholding from players’ paychecks for the remainder of the season starting Jan. 30, with current HRR projections indicating the “amount already withheld will also be returned in full following final season accounting.” Players are also set to receive the full amount of escrow they had withheld from their 2023-24 paychecks plus an additional 1.5 to 2% to maintain the 50-50 revenue split between players and owners.

As for negotiations on the next CBA, set to commence soon to prevent a lockout in the 2026 offseason, Friedman writes, “There’s also reason to be optimistic in CBA negotiations. If the financials are sorted out, what on earth could stop a deal?”

News of a significant cap increase comes ahead of a potentially star-studded 2025 unrestricted free-agent market that, for now, is still set to feature names like Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, and Nikolaj Ehlers.

Deferred Payments In Jeopardy In Upcoming CBA Discussions

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The NHL and NHLPA are expected to discuss removing the option for teams and players to structure contracts with deferred payments when they begin negotiating a new Collective Bargaining Agreement next month, Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reported Tuesday.

Deferring part of a contract’s total value until after its expiry to earn a discount on a player’s cap hit has been legal since the 2004-05 lockout, which signaled the beginning of the salary cap era. However, it was used incredibly rarely until the past few months. Four players—the Hurricanes’ Jaccob Slavin and Seth Jarvis, the Maple Leafs’ Jake McCabe, and the Ducks’ Frank Vatrano—have accepted deferred compensation as part of new contracts or extensions since July 1.

Vatrano’s extension, a three-year, $18MM commitment that carries just a $4.57MM cap hit compared to $6MM without deferred compensation, has taken the most advantage of the rule. It’s the first of the four to defer base salary, not just signing bonus money, and he’ll only earn half of the money over the contract’s life. The other $9MM will be paid out in 10 yearly checks of $900K from 2035 onward. During that time, Vatrano anticipates retiring in Florida and will not pay California state income tax on the money.

However, as LeBrun relayed, most player agents aren’t suggesting this strategy for their clients. Octagon’s Allan Walsh put up a brief explainer of why it’s not always a tax-saving measure in the long run, although LeBrun countered with the supposition that Vatrano wouldn’t have earned as much total cash by not using deferred compensation.

The league determined that Vatrano’s deal was compliant with the deferred compensation rule as written, but “that shouldn’t be interpreted as the league being a big fan of it or deferred payments in general,” LeBrun said. He adds the NHLPA has historically opposed deferred payments – the value of money paid later is almost always lower than money earned in the present due to inflation – creating an environment for both parties to close the door on that contract structure when the next CBA goes into effect for the 2026-27 season.

Evening Notes: Salary Cap, CBA, Suter

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TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweeted that NHL commissioner Gary Bettman told the media that the early ballpark projections for the salary cap next season have pegged the number at $92.5MM. The $4.5MM increase would be sizable in comparison to previous summers but Bettman cautioned that the number was very preliminary.

The NHL salary cap for this season is set at $88MM and with hockey-related revenues rising once again, it could lead to a significant salary cap increase when the NHL and NHLPA renegotiate the next collective bargaining agreement. Until that time the salary cap will likely keep climbing by a few million dollars each year, which should help some of the teams who have struggled with salary cap issues in recent years.

In other evening notes:

  • Bettman spoke about those upcoming collective bargaining agreement talks telling the media that the NHL plans to begin those conversations with the NHLPA in the new year (as per Pierre LeBrun of TSN). One of the items on the docket will be reducing the number of pre-season games to four and potentially adding two regular-season games to the schedule (as per LeBrun). The news isn’t overly surprising given the recent run of injuries during the pre-season, and the fact that fans appear to be largely disinterested in the preseason games this week.
  • Vancouver Canucks forward Pius Suter was injured in last night’s preseason game and is being evaluated by the team’s medical staff (as per Canucks play-by-play voice Brendan Batchelor). Suter was banged up in a scrum with Edmonton Oilers forward Corey Perry after Perry dropped his gloves following a hit on teammate Connor McDavid. Suter tried to avoid the confrontation, which didn’t look all that physical but caused some discomfort for the 28-year-old. Suter is entering the final season of a two-year $3.2MM contract that he signed last summer and is expected to center the Canucks fourth line this season.

Evander Kane Scheduled For Sports Hernia Surgery

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Sep. 18: Kane will indeed undergo sports hernia surgery, general manager Stan Bowman told reporters today (via the Oilers’ Tony Brar).

Sep. 13: Mark Spector of Sportsnet is reporting that Edmonton Oilers forward Evander Kane will have sports hernia surgery in the next 10 days or so. Kane has been dealing with the issue since last season and played through the pain as much as he could but eventually missed significant time in the Stanley Cup Final when he dressed in just two of the Oilers’ final seven games.

Kane played reasonably well last season, given that he played through pain for most of it. However, his 24 goals and 20 assists in 77 games represented his lowest point-per-game pace in seven years. The 31-year-old added four goals and four assists in 20 playoff games, which was also a drop from his normal production.

While Kane’s offensive numbers were below his career norms, he did play a career-low 16:47 per game during the regular season which marked his lowest total since he averaged 14:00 per game during his rookie season in 2009-10 while he was a member of the Atlanta Thrashers.

Kane’s prognosis won’t be fully known until surgery has been completed. When his recovery period is clear the Oilers should be able to figure out a plan for their salary cap situation going forward. PuckPedia estimates that Edmonton has $946K in cap space for the 2024-25 season (including Kane’s $5.125MM cap hit), however, if Kane is out longer than 24 days and 10 games then Edmonton can place him on LTIR. If that is the approach they take, the Oilers would need to keep his space available for when he is ready to suit up once again which would presumably be at some point during the regular season.

11 Teams Face Cap Overage Penalties Next Season

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With the salary cap largely being flat the last few years, more teams have had to dip into LTIR when injuries have come up.  Accordingly, the number of teams facing bonus overage penalties has also risen.  This year is no exception as Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports in collaboration with CapFriendly that 11 teams are currently facing cap overage penalties for 2024-25 as a result of bonuses achieved this season.

When a team finishes up the season using LTIR to stay cap-compliant, they don’t have any regular cap space to which bonuses can be applied against.  Accordingly, that results in LTIR teams that have incentives that are met finishing over the cap, yielding overage penalties.  Whatever amount they finished 2023-24 over by is then deducted off the Upper Limit for next season.

The teams that are confirmed to have bonus overage penalties are as follows:

Edmonton Oilers: $3.45MM*
Dallas Stars: $2,595,407
Washington Capitals: $2.2525MM
Los Angeles Kings: $1.85MM
New Jersey Devils: $1,538,897
Montreal Canadiens: $1.0225MM
Ottawa Senators: $850K
New York Rangers: $512.5K*
Minnesota Wild: $425K*
Philadelphia Flyers: $245K
Boston Bruins $50K*

Teams denoted with an asterisk could see their bonus overage increase if the following happens:

Edmonton: Corey Perry’s contract calls for $50K if the Oilers make the Western Conference Final and another $50K if they reach the Stanley Cup Final.

New York: Theirs would increase by $25K if they win the Stanley Cup, a bonus in Jonathan Quick’s deal.

Minnesota: Marco Rossi can make $212.5K if he makes the All-Rookie Team which would then be added to the Wild’s carryover penalty.

Boston: Milan Lucic will receive $200K if the Bruins win the Stanley Cup as part of his contract.

In addition to the above, Carolina and Florida also have the potential for an overage contingent on the playoffs.  The Hurricanes would have a $50.45K penalty if Jackson Blake plays in 20 games between the regular season and playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Panthers would take a $500K hit if they win the Stanley Cup to cover that bonus in Kyle Okposo’s contract.

Team-by-team details with specifics on how each one got to the point of an overage were covered separately by PuckPedia.

It’s the first time that multiple teams will carry overage penalties of more than $2MM into the following season.  With the cap expected to go up by closer to $4MM this summer, that could in theory take some pressure off from the bonus overage perspective but only if teams leave themselves a bit more wiggle room to work with.  There’s a good chance that won’t happen so we’re quite likely to see these penalties again next season though with perhaps fewer teams getting the hit next time around.

Senators Notes: Coaching, Buyouts, Norris

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The Ottawa Senators wrapped up their season with locker cleanout on Friday, giving general manager Steve Staios a chance to share updates with the media. He spent much of his time addressing the team’s coaching situation, saying they have a long list of candidates that they’ll whittle down over the summer, per Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun.

The Senators have been without a long-term head coach since D.J. Smith’s firing on December 18th. Jaques Martin stepped in as interim head coach, leading the Senators to a measly 26-26-4 record and a spot well outside of the playoffs. Staios mentioned that Martin would continue with the team in a consulting role, but isn’t in the race for the vacant head coaching role. Neither is Senators legend Daniel Alfredsson, who Staios says wanted more time before pursuing the coaching path. That likely leaves the Senators looking externally, where they’ll find plenty of strong candidates.

Other notes from Staios’ press conference:

  • Staios added that the team isn’t planning on utilizing any buyouts this off-season, per Sportsnet’s Wayne Scanlan (Twitter link). That’s despite weaker performances from costlier names, like Joonas Korpisalo and Travis Hamonic. Ottawa is projected to have $12.8MM in cap space this off-season, per CapFriendly and an $87.5MM salary cap. With no support from buyouts, that will be all they have to re-sign their six pending free-agents, including Erik Brannstrom, Dominik Kubalik, and Shane Pinto.
  • Staios also shared that forward Joshua Norris is expecting to be ready for the start of next season, shares Garrioch. Norris was limited to just 50 games this season, and hasn’t played since late February, once again dealing with nagging shoulder injuries. Norris was limited to just eight games last season because of shoulder issues, and underwent the third shoulder surgery of his four-year NHL career in March. He’ll look to recover once again, and hope for healthier fortune next season.

Afternoon Notes: Monahan, Thompson, Merzlikins

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TSN’s Darren Dreger reported on TSN Insider Trading that he believes Montreal Canadiens forward Sean Monahan could be one of the first players moved before the NHL trade deadline. The Canadiens and Monahan struck an agreement on a one-year contract last summer with the understanding that the team would move Monahan to a contending team during the season when the time was right.

For his part, Monahan has been having a decent year and is healthy for the first time in a while. The Brampton, Ontario native has dressed in 41 games and has registered 11 goals and 13 assists while averaging over 18 minutes of ice time a game. The seven-time 20-goal scorer hasn’t topped the 20-goal mark since the 2019-20 season but is on pace for a 22-goal campaign. His contract will also be one of the easier deals to move as he is counting just $2MM against the Canadiens salary cap this season.

In other afternoon notes:

  • Paul Hamilton of WGR Sports Radio 550 in Buffalo is reporting that Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson is undergoing imaging today for an undisclosed injury. Thompson was on a mission in last night’s game against the Ottawa Senators as he scored two goals before his exit from the game. He did take a high stick in the second period that forced him to briefly leave the bench, but he did return after that before leaving a second time. Thompson missed a few weeks with a hand injury earlier in the season and was just rounding into form in recent weeks. In 32 games this season, the Phoenix, Arizona native has 14 goals and 13 assists. Sabres head coach Don Granato did tell reporters that Thompson could play tomorrow, meaning that whatever is bothering the 26-year-old may not be too serious, but time will tell.
  • Aaron Portzline of The Athletic is reporting that Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins commented to the media today that he has not asked the team for a trade, however, he would like the team to find a new scenario for him and the team has agreed with that. What that means is unclear, but Merzlikins did tell reporters that he is not a backup goaltender, something that he is in line to be tomorrow night when the Blue Jackets take on the Seattle Kraken. If Columbus does go the trade route with Merzlikins, it will not be the easiest move to make as the 29-year-old is in the second year of a five-year $27MM contract and has a ten-team no-trade list. Couple his contract, with his uneven play over the past two and a half years and it will be a difficult transaction for the Blue Jackets to make.

Snapshots: Flames, Three Stars, Lightning

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The Fourth Period is reporting that the Calgary Flames picked up trade talks with several teams last week as they look to potentially move on from several pending unrestricted free agents. The Fourth Period cited sources saying that the New Jersey Devils were one of the teams they talked to and even linked the Devils to both Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev.

The Flames currently have a record of 15-16-5 through their first 36 games which puts them five points out of a playoff spot as they near the halfway point of the regular season. The team will have a big decision to make in the coming weeks as they also have center Elias Lindholm on an expiring contract, and he is reportedly looking for a deal in the range of $9MM annually.

The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta also believes that teams have expressed interest in Flames defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, but it’s hard to believe Calgary would deal him given that he is in the first year of an eight-year contract and has a full no-trade clause.

Other notes from around the league:

  • The NHL has announced its Three Stars of the Month, with Nathan MacKinnon taking First Star, Auston Matthews winning Second Star, and Connor Hellebuyck being named Third Star. MacKinnon won on the heels of an 11-goal, 29-point performance in 15 games in December, while Matthew’s put up 15 goals and six assists in just 12 games. Hellebuyck’s December performance saw him post an impressive 7-0-2 record, which was good enough for a Third Star.
  • Tampa Bay Lightning writer Chris Krenn is reporting that the Lightning were forced to dress just five defensemen tonight due to injuries and salary cap constraints. The Lightning lost Erik Cernak and Haydn Fleury recently to injury and with no cap space to make a recall, the Lightning were forced to play the Winnipeg Jets one defender short of a full six. The Lightning will be eligible to make an emergency recall after tonight, but due to the language in the Roster Emergency Exception rule, they must wait until the second game to be eligible to recall a player under emergency conditions.

Kraken Notes: Eberle, Kartye, Wright

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Alison Lukan of Root Sports is reporting that Seattle Kraken forward Jordan Eberle will be out of the lineup tonight with a lower-body injury and won’t dress for their matchup tonight with the Los Angeles Kings.This season, it’s been a struggle for the 33-year-old as he has just three goals in 28 games, while also registering 11 assists. Eberle is shooting just 5.2% which is a substantial drop from his career average of 12.7%.

Eberle’s injury means that newly acquired forward Tomas Tatar will draw into the lineup for the Kraken just a day after he was acquired from the Colorado Avalanche for a fifth-round pick. Tatar appears slated to play on the Kraken’s top line alongside Matty Beniers and Jared McCann. Both McCann and Beniers have also struggled this season along with Eberle as all three men have posted offensive numbers well off what put up last year.

In other Kraken notes:

  • The Kraken announced today that they’ve reversed a move from yesterday and have recalled Tye Kartye from their AHL affiliate the Coachella Valley Firebirds. Kartye is having a decent rookie season in Seattle as the 22-year-old has posted six goals and five assists in 30 games. It’s not shocking to see Kartye recalled so quickly as he has been productive recently with two goals and an assist in his last five games. Kartye has been a great story this season for the Kraken as he has emerged as an NHL talent after being undrafted just a few years ago. He spent just a single full season in the AHL and was productive last year with the Firebirds tallying 28 goals and 29 assists in 72 games.
  • With the move to recall Kartye, the Kraken have also reversed the corresponding move that came along with it and sent Shane Wright back to the AHL. Wright was recalled Friday and spent just over 24 hours on the Kraken roster. The move might seem nonsensical on the surface, but this transaction is likely part of the series of moves Seattle Times writer Geoff Baker was referring to yesterday in his tweet. Baker said that the Kraken would make a series of moves that would be for salary cap purposes and with the Kartye and Wright moves it appears that is exactly what they are doing. Wright has been recalled and reassigned quite a few times this year and this probably isn’t the last time he will be involved in that type of transaction.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Florida Panthers

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Florida Panthers.

Who are the Panthers thankful for?

Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk has not been himself thus far this season, but it is hard to fault him after he suffered a broken sternum in game 4 of the Stanley Cup finals in June. He valiantly tried to play in game 5 but could only take a few shifts before he had to shut himself down. He went through rehabilitation and recovery in the summer and although he was ready for training camp, it’s hard to believe that he had a full summer of his regular training regimen.

Tkachuk hasn’t been bad this year, he just hasn’t lived up to the level of play he’s shown over the past few seasons when he has been regularly in the conversation for league MVP. The 26-year-old has just five goals and 15 assists in 27 games thus far this season but has continued to be a dominant force at even strength. Although his goal numbers aren’t what they’ve been the last two seasons, he continues to drive the play and is snake bit by a career-low shooting percentage of 4.8%. Tkachuk is a career 12.7% shooter, meaning that he should see a surge here in the coming months unless his broken sternum is still a cause for concern. That doesn’t appear to be the case though as Tkachuk continues to play with reckless abandon this season, as his hitting numbers are up considerably from last year.

Tkachuk is not only the on-ice leader of the Panthers, but he is also the heart and soul player that teams covet desperately. Many thought the Panthers had given up too much to acquire the Scottsdale, Arizona native from the Calgary Flames, but a year and a half after the trade it looks like an absolute heist by general manager Bill Zito.

What are the Panthers thankful for?

Pro Scouting.

Over the last few years, not every trade the Panthers have made has worked out, but the bulk of them have been good, and several of them have been home runs.

As was mentioned earlier, the Tkachuk trade was an absolute thing of beauty for the Panthers, It was high profile and high risk, but some of their sneakier trades are almost as impressive.

Acquiring Sam Bennett from the Calgary Flames for Emil Heineman and a second-round pick was another well-crafted trade that ended up one-sided in favor of the Panthers. Another key move was the trade with the Buffalo Sabres to acquire Sam Reinhart who currently leads the team in scoring this season with 17 goals and 20 assists in 27 games. That trade could go either way though as Reinhart is a free agent at year’s end and Devon Levi has shown glimpses of being a star in the making, despite his struggles this season.

But one of Panthers’ best moves was a different trade with the Sabres. One in which Florida acquired Brandon Montour for a 2021 third-round pick. Montour has started slowing this season with just two assists in 11 games, but like Tkachuk, he is returning from a severe injury. Montour was a key catalyst for the Panthers last season as he put up career numbers with 16 goals and 57 assists in 80 games. To cap it all off the 29-year-old had eight goals and five assists in 21 games during Florida’s surprise run to the Stanley Cup finals this past spring. His acquisition remains some of the Panthers’ best work the last few years, and credit goes to the team’s pro scouting who continue to identify diamonds in the rough.

What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?

A few contract extensions.

The Panthers are headed into a summer of uncertainty as they do have a number off key free agents who could be difficult to get under contract long-term.

As mentioned earlier, Reinhart has been terrific this season. He is on pace for a career year and could eclipse 50 goals and 100 points for the first time in his career. The timing could not be better for the 28-year-old as he is just over six months away from hitting the open market. If he gets to market there is no telling how high the cap hit could be on a lucrative long-term deal, especially with the salary cap rising substantially for the first time since before the pandemic. The Panthers are the only team that can offer Reinhart an eighth year, but they do have other extensions to consider and may not be willing to go as high as they need to get a deal done.

Montour is another pending unrestricted free agent, and his negotiations are complicated by the wild variance in his play in the last few seasons. After having a career year last season, he has started slowing this year and may give the Panthers pause when it comes to negotiations. Florida might want to see more from Montour before locking him down long-term. However, he was invaluable to them last year, particularly during their playoff run, and if he can replicate that success this year, he may price himself out of Florida.

Lastly, Gustav Forsling is also just over six months away from being able to sign with any team in the league, and while he hasn’t matched the pace he set last year offensively, he is still a key driver of play and can play in all situations. Forsling remains one of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL, but that could change with his next contract. While he currently is playing under a deal that pays him just over $2.6MM annually, he should be able to double his cap hit on his next deal.

At 27 years old Forsling likely has a lot left to give and should be a priority for the Panthers. He blocks shots, kills penalties, can chip in offensively, and is terrific at even strength. The Panthers would be hard-pressed to replace the minutes he plays in free agency and will likely look to lock him up long-term.

What should be on the Panthers holiday wish list?

A depth defenseman.

It really goes to show you how good this Panthers team is that their big need is a depth defenseman. An argument could be made that they use another center, but with Kevin Stenlund providing a decent defensive presence as the fourth line center, we can table talk about the forwards and focus on the Panthers’ back-end.

Uvis Balinskis has filled in admirably on the Panthers third defensive paring as the 27-year-old rookie has played okay in heavily sheltered minutes for the team alongside Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Despite his decent play in a supporting role, the Panthers will likely need to improve their depth if they hope to make another deep run in the playoffs. Balinskis does have a physical element to his game but isn’t overly big and can be pushed off the puck. He also appears uncomfortable playing on his offside, something he will probably have to do to remain in the Panthers lineup long-term.

Florida would do well to grab a depth right-shot defenseman, who can fill in for Balinskis on occasion, or takeover from him should he begin to falter as the season goes on,

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