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Ryan Ellis

Ryan Ellis Signs Eight-Year Extension With Nashville Predators

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One of the biggest extensions expected this summer has finally dropped, as the Nashville Predators today announced an eight-year, $50MM ($6.25MM AAV) contract extension for Ryan Ellis. The deal will kick in for the 2019-20 season, and keep Ellis in Nashville through the 2026-27 season. Ellis is currently carrying just a $2.5MM cap hit on the final year of his contract. The deal does not include any trade protection, meaning Pekka Rinne remains the only Predators player with a contract that includes a no-move or no-trade clause. GM David Poile released a statement explaining the contract:

Ryan is a huge part of our team on and off the ice and we are happy to have his leadership remain in our locker room for the foreseeable future. We have talked about wanting to keep the core of our team together, and this is another opportunity to help us do so while continuing to compete for a Stanley Cup. Ryan is entering his prime and is one of the reasons why we feel this team has a chance to win every time we step on the ice.

Ellis, 27, was scheduled to be one of the biggest unrestricted free agents on the market next offseason, though there was little doubt something would be worked out with Nashville at some point. The two sides had been open with their mutual interest, and this deal gives both what they were after. For Ellis, it potentially gives him the opportunity to play his entire career in Nashville after the team took a chance on him with the 11th-overall selection in 2009. At the time, undersized defensemen were not as accepted as they are today and it was obvious by some of the names taken ahead of him. Luke Schenn and Jared Cowen both ended up as top-10 picks, mostly for their size and defensive capabilities. Even Victor Hedman (2nd overall) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6th overall) are big enough to fulfill the height restrictions, though the offensive upside of both made them such attractive commodities. Ellis, who stands just 5’10”, was seen as a risk even despite his obvious offensive gifts and defensive potential.

That potential has paid off, and though Ellis is still regarded as an excellent offensive player it is his all-around ability that makes him so valuable. Equally capable on the powerplay and penalty kill, the former Windsor Spitfire recorded 32 points in just 44 games in 2017-18 after returning from injury and logged huge minutes for the Predators in the playoffs once again. Though he won’t begin the extension until well after his 28th birthday, he secures the Predators’ blue line as one of the best in the league for years to come.

There was more money to be made, at least on a per-year basis on the open market to be sure. A similarly aged John Carlson just received an eight-year $64MM contract from the Washington Capitals given his proximity to unrestricted free agency, and some would argue that Ellis is an even more effective player. At the very worst he’s in the same range and could have demanded at least $7MM per season, but decided to stick with the Predators long-term and keep contending for the Stanley Cup. Ryan McDonagh too recently received an extension that carries a higher cap hit, in fact according to CapFriendly the closest comparables to the Ellis contract are Cam Fowler, Erik Johnson and Johnny Boychuk. While all three are effective players, Nashville will be happy to keep one of their leaders in the room for a respectable number.

The fact that there is no trade protection shouldn’t come as a surprise, and it also shouldn’t signal that the Predators will look to move Ellis down the road. Poile is staunchly against including no-movement clauses, and has avoided giving them out in other huge extensions for players like Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris. Ellis will earn a $7MM signing bonus on July 1st, 2019, giving him a good portion of money up front.

The Predators now have their elite four defensemen locked up for the next two years at least, with Roman Josi next on the block for an extension. His contract expires in the summer of 2020, at which point he’ll be 30 years old. Amazingly, Nashville is set up to have more than enough room to give him a heft raise from the $4MM he currently earns, meaning this group could stay together for some time. Mattias Ekholm, now the extremely underpaid member of the group, carries a $3.75MM hit for four more seasons.

This deal does carry some risk, as Ellis could deteriorate or decline in the latter portion of the contract. By then though the salary cap will have inflated and the Predators will likely have already received plenty of excess value. If he struggles to maintain his current play this season though, handing out an extension at this point could look like a huge mistake. There is pressure on the 27-year old defenseman to perform, but he’s never seemed to back away from the spotlight in the past.

Poll: What Kind Of Extension Is Predators’ Ryan Ellis Worth?

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With top defensemen getting locked up to big, long-term deals everywhere, one only has to look around the league to see who is next. The most obvious target would be Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, who will be wrapping up the final year of his five-year, $12.5MM deal. Ellis, who is one of the core of Nashville’s talented back end, is one of the most underpaid blueliners in the league at $2.5MM AAV, should be in line for a great extension. After all, many of his defensive teammates are already well-paid, including P.K. Subban ($9MM for four more years), Roman Josi ($4MM for two more years), and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM for four more years).

Nashville claims that locking up the 27 year old is the team’s top priority this offseason. Yet little has happened. However, how much is he worth, asks Adam Vingan of the Tennessean? While two of the most significant extensions went to Los Angeles’ Kings Drew Doughty (eight years, $11MM AAV) and Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $8.25MM AAV), Ellis likely doesn’t fit into that category. Therefore, Vingan writes that Nashville must compare Ellis’ play with several other tiers of defenseman that have recently signed new deals. The most likely comparables for Ellis will come down to the recent contracts signed by Washington Capitals’ John Carlson (eight years, $8MM AAV) and Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ryan McDonagh (eight years, $6.75MM AAV). However is he as good as those two?

The next tier would be contracts handed out a few years ago that could compare, such as Pittsburgh Penguins’ Kris Letang (eight years, $7.25MM AAV), Erik Johnson (seven years, $6MM AAV) and Anaheim Ducks’ Cam Fowler (eight years, $6.5MM AAV). Ellis’ stats are challenging to look when attempting to compare to any of those defensemen. Offensively, he’s never put up 40 points in a season yet, coming close once with 38 points (16 of those were goals). However, after missing the first half of this past season after undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Ellis’ stats took a jump when he put up 32 points in 44 games, suggesting that his offense is starting to emerge. With his defense never under question, the Predators must come up with a number soon.

So what range should Ellis fall into?

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Free Agent Notes: Holden, Ellis, Namestnikov, Wilson

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The Vegas Golden Knights already surprised a few when they reached out and stole Paul Stastny away from Western Conference rival Winnipeg. However, the Golden Knights are apparently not done as The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Vegas is the front-runner for unrestricted free agent defenseman Nick Holden.

Holden, who spent time with both the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins last season, would be a solid depth defenseman that could add to Vegas’ core. he averaged 19:00 ATOI between both clubs, but only posted four goals and 17 points on the year. However, the 31-year-old may be starting to show a decline in skills as he was a 34-point player in 2016-17 with the Rangers.

Incidentally, Holden is being pursued by two teams as the Boston Bruins are also vying for the blueliner’s services, according to Sportsnet’s Mark Spector. The Bruins, after all, gave up a third-round pick and low-end prospect Rob O’Gara at the deadline.

  • LeBrun also mentions that while Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis, who will be a unrestricted free agent in one year, can sign an extension as of today. However, the scribe writes that Nashville isn’t there yet. They intend to reignite talks with Ellis and his representatives within the next one to two weeks. Nashville wants to keep Ellis in the fold at all costs as the team has put major emphasis on having a dominant four defense. The team already has P.K. Subban ($9MM AAV) and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM AAV) locked up for four years, while Roman Josi ($4MM AAV) is signed for another two years.
  • The New York Rangers can breathe easier after the agent for restricted free agent Vladislav Namestnikov, Dan Milstein, refuted rumors that the forward was leaving for the KHL. Namestnikov, who was acquired from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, but saw his playing time drop once he arrived in New York. After averaging 17:30 of ATOI as a Lightning, his playing time dropped to 15:43, along with his offensive production. After potting 20 goals with Tampa Bay, he managed just four points in 19 games with the Rangers. However, Milstein insists the rumors are not true and that Namestnikov believes playing in the NHL is a privilege and honor and an extension is in the works with the New York Rangers.
  • Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News reports the Buffalo Sabres are currently working on re-signing winger Scott Wilson. The 26-year-old was picked up in a December trade this last season from the Detroit Red Wings and played a regular role as a bottom-six forward. After not scoring a point in 17 games with Detroit, he tallied six goals and 14 points in 49 games in Buffalo.

Poll: Superstar Defensemen On The Move

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Much has been made recently about the futures of five All-Star defenseman who are slated for free agency in 2019. Drew Doughty is working toward an extension with the Los Angeles Kings. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is sitting on an offer from the Arizona Coyotes. The Nashville Predators have made re-signing Ryan Ellis their priority this off-season. Ryan McDonagh was unable to bring home a Stanley Cup for the favorite Tampa Bay Lightning after a deadline blockbuster. And all of this has somehow overshadowed the potential availability of the Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson. 

All five of these superstar defenders could sign extensions on July 1st. Of course, they could all be dealt away even sooner. Doughty seems closest on a deal, but has strict salary demands that could end up souring one side or the other. Ekman-Larsson has always seemed loyal to the Coyotes, but is understandably concerned about the future of the team given their struggles throughout his career. Ellis too has been a loyal soldier for the Predators and an extremely underpaid one at that. He could make far more and play a far greater role elsewhere. McDonagh was acquired for the Bolts to make a title run this year and next, but beyond that point the team may not be able to afford him. Finally, Karlsson is the ultimate prize. He has expressed a desire to get fair market value on his next deal and polarizing Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk seems unlikely to match.

So, as the off-season gets underway and these five know that their futures will be determined in the next twelve months, the question is how many re-sign and how many move on, either via trade or free agency? Which of these stars will don the same jersey in 2019-20 as they did in 2017-18?

Ryan Ellis Open To Contract Extension With Nashville Predators

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The Nashville Predators already made it clear this morning that they likely wouldn’t be bringing back Alexei Emelin, and that Scott Hartnell’s tenure with the team was essentially over. GM David Poile also touched on an upcoming negotiation with defenseman Ryan Ellis, which Adam Vingan examines in a piece for the Tennessean. Ellis has one year left on his current contract, and would be eligible for an extension this summer. He’s very open to signing a new deal with Nashville, as he told Vingan:

I love it here. My fiancée loves it here. If it was my wish, I’d finish my career here. So we’ll see what happens.

Ellis has been one of the most underpaid players in the league the last few seasons, carrying a cap hit of just $2.5MM during his five-year, $12.5MM contract signed in 2014. The 27-year old has developed into one of the best two-way defensemen in the league, and raised to new heights this season when he recorded 32 points in just 44 games. His season was limited by the knee surgery he underwent last summer, but after returning he produced at an incredible rate for the Predators and was back to driving possession while logging more than 23 minutes a night.

Oddly, Ellis’ name hasn’t been mentioned as much as some of the other defensemen scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019. While Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have taken all the headlines, Ellis has flown somewhat under the radar as a potential top pairing defenseman that could be available. That’s likely due to his role on one of the best defensive groups in the NHL, sometimes overshadowed by the flamboyance of P.K. Subban or steady play of Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm. Make no mistake though, if Ellis was to hit the open market he would have dozens of teams knocking down his door to try and sign him.

That should lead to quite the raise if he does re-sign with the Predators, and one that isn’t necessarily a given. The team already has quite a bit of salary tied up in those other defensemen, and with Kyle Turris’ $36MM extension kicking in next year there is a cap crunch coming in Nashville. While right now Ellis’ low cap hit is one of the reasons that the team can have so much depth, a substantial raise—which could potentially push him into the $6-7MM range—would leave the team with some tough decisions elsewhere on the roster. Josi is scheduled to become a UFA in 2020, while there are already decisions to be made with pending RFA Juuse Saros and incumbent starter Pekka Rinne, who has just one year left on his current contract.

Either way, Predators fans should be pleased that Ellis is already so open about a potential extension. The 11th-overall pick in 2009 has proven any doubters wrong by showing that a relatively undersized defenseman can be successful in his own end, and should be a big part of the team for years to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Injury Notes: Parise, Letang, Kadri, Ellis

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The Minnesota Wild will welcome Zach Parise back tonight when they take on the Florida Panthers. Parise will be making his season debut after just a one-game conditioning stint with the Iowa Wild, and will attempt to get his season off to a good start against a Panthers team that Minnesota will meet for a second time in six games.

Parise hasn’t played in more than 74 games in a single season since 2011-12, but is still an integral part of the Minnesota forward group. Receiving Selke votes as one of the leagues best defensive forwards six out of the last eight years, and only a few seasons removed from a 33-goal season, the Wild will hope Parise’s presence will kick-start their playoff pursuit. The Wild find themselves in fifth place in the Central Division, but only a single point behind the Anaheim Ducks for the second wildcard spot.

  • Kris Letang and Justin Schultz both took their regular spots at practice this morning for the Pittsburgh Penguins, which could indicate their return tonight against the Philadelphia Flyers. For the Penguins, who are still sitting outside a playoff spot (three points back of the New York Islanders), getting Letang and Schultz back would be invaluable. If one or both can quickly return to peak form, the team will once again be one to watch in the Eastern Conference.
  • Nazem Kadri will return for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight after suffering what appeared to be a concussion against the Arizona Coyotes. Kadri told reporters today including Kristen Shilton of TSN that it in fact was just a neck injury and that he never did feel any concussion symptoms. His return will allow the Maple Leafs to move Patrick Marleau back to the wing, where he is more accustomed and effective.
  • Ryan Ellis was scheduled to return on January 2nd, and it looks like he’ll make that happen. The Nashville Predators defenseman and associate captain will likely play his first game of the season after head coach Peter Laviolette told Adam Vignan of the Tenessean that Ellis was “right there and ready to go.”

Ryan Ellis Expected Back January 2nd

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Life is good for the Nashville Predators, who currently lead the Central Division with 46 points in 33 games and are about to get a huge present for Christmas. Ryan Ellis, out all season following knee surgery, is expected to be back in the lineup on January 2nd. That’s according to Predators GM David Poile himself, who told 104.5 The Zone that the defensemen is just working on his confidence after such a long layoff (quote courtesy of Thomas Willis of NHL.com):

The doctor says it’s about confidence now, he’s fully healed. I’m expecting Ryan Ellis will skate the last week of the year and be looking at the first game of 2018 as a time to be back.

Ryan EllisEllis has turned himself into one of the premier defensemen in the league, scoring 16 goals and 38 points last season while being responsible in his own end every night. The 26-year old was named “associate captain” of the Predators in the offseason, after Roman Josi—who was eventually named team captain—suggested Ellis without hesitation for the job. His return will likely feel like that of a huge trade deadline acquisition, especially if he can get back to the level he played at last season.

In the past, the Predators have leaned heavily on their top two pairings to log nearly the whole game and with Ellis’ return they can again. With Alexei Emelin now in the mix they can afford to ease Ellis back in, but it shouldn’t be long until he’s back playing somewhere near the 24 minutes a night he averaged last season. That makes the Nashville defense corps almost unmatched around the league, and will give them another advantage over the rest of the Western Conference. After a turnaround sparked by the acquisition of Kyle Turris, the Predators are a team on the rise and can be considered a legitimate Stanley Cup contender once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Western Notes: Realignment, Ellis, Baertschi, Parise, Spurgeon

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In a long notebook with many takes, The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek (subscription required) points out that assuming that Seattle does acquire an expansion team that starts in the 2020-21 season, realignment will have to happen as it’s highly unlikely Seattle will end up in the Central Division, which is the division that’s short one team.

Duhatschek suggests the smartest way to fix the divisional problem when/if Seattle gives the NHL a 32nd team, would be to move the Colorado Avalanche to the Pacific Divison and then move both the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers to the Central Division. Geographically, that would make the most sense, although neither Edmonton or Calgary would make a great fit in the Central. One other possibility would be that by 2020-21, the Arizona Coyotes may have decided to move away and relocate. That could also fix the problem, but only time will tell.

  • Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes that Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis has been practicing with the team and could return within the next couple of weeks. The 26-year-old stud defenseman has been out after knee surgery this summer. Vingan also writes that despite their solid defense, it’s likely the team will have to make a move with Matt Irwin and Anthony Bitetto the most likely candidates to be sent to the Milwaukee Admirals. Since the return of Yannick Weber a week ago, Irwin has been scratched twice, while Bitetto once.
  • Patrick Johnston of The Province writes that Vancouver Canucks winger Sven Baertschi, who took a puck to the face during last night’s game against the Calgary Flames, will return home to Vancouver rather than continue with the team on their current roadtrip. While there are no details on the severity of the injury, Johnston said the angle of the shot and its velocity would suggest the injury could be significant as he has already been ruled out for the team’s game against the Winnipeg Jets on Monday. The 25-year-old has struggled lately on offense, but is still third on the team with eight goals this year.
  • Sarah McLellan of the Star Tribune tweets that veteran Zach Parise and defenseman Jared Spurgeon are skating and may just be a couple of weeks away from returning to the team. Parise, who underwent back surgery in October, hasn’t played all year. He scored 19 goals and had 42 points last year for the Wild and was counted on to be a key contributor. Spurgeon has been out since Dec. 1 with a groin strain. He has three goals and 12 assists in 23 games this season.
  • The Arizona Coyotes will play in their 21st road game of the season tonight when they face the Chicago Blackhawks tonight. The Coyotes will be the first team in NHL history to play 21 road games within the first 66 days of the season, according to NHL.com’s Dave Vest.
  • Mike Chambers of the Denver Post tweets that defenseman Erik Johnson is fine after blocking a shot late in Saturday’s game against the Florida Panthers. He is expected to play Monday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Nashville Predators

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered ANA, ARZ, BUF, CGY, CAR, CBJ, COL, DET, LAK, NYI, STL, TOR, WSH, and VGK.

Who are the Nashville Predators most thankful for?

David Poile.

Ryan JohansenNot only did Poile orchestrate trades for P.K. Subban and Ryan Johansen that resulted in a Stanley Cup Finals berth in their first full season with the team, but he has repeatedly locked up assets for reasonable contracts and once again used his trading skills to bring in a key player. Over the past two summers, the Predators had several high profile restricted free agents to sign. Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson were all without deals but are now locked in for at least five seasons together.

Poile was able to sign the trio to a combined $18.25MM cap hit because of previous deals he’d struck, most notably with Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm. That group is currently earning only a combined $10.25MM, despite each being regarded as potential top-pairing options.

He’s done it again this season, by bringing in Kyle Turris and immediately extending the center for another six seasons without any signing bonuses or trade protection. Turris has played just nine games since coming over from the Ottawa Senators but has fit in perfectly, recording seven points already. Poile has never been one to shy away from long contracts or big trades, and it’s paying off again in the standings this year.

What are the Predators most thankful for?

Improving health.

The end of last year’s playoffs must have been hard to watch for the Predators front office, as Johansen, Kevin Fiala and others went down to freak injuries just as they were approaching the Finals. That injury luck carried into the summer, when doctors told the Predators in September that Ellis could need another six months to rehab his surgically repaired knee. He’d hurt it in those Stanley Cup Finals, but played through pain in Game 6 anyway.

Ellis joined teammates on the ice today for their morning skate, the first time he’d attended a team practice since the surgery according to Adam Vingan of The Tennessean. While it isn’t at all a signal that he’s set to return early, just the fact that he’s “on track” is good news for Predators fans. A return from the 26-year old will be a huge addition for the team, as he is as important as any other defender to the club when fully healthy.

What would the Predators be even more thankful for?

Someone slowing down the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets.

No matter how well the Predators play, they still are in a division with two teams that look equally dangerous. The Blues and Jets have played just about as well as you could this season, and both sit above Nashville in the standings (not to mention the Dallas Stars and Chicago Blackhawks looming in the shadows). All three teams have some similarities, but the Predators will hope that their experience from last season will take them to the next level this year.

Winnipeg is especially green, but loaded with young talent throughout their roster. With a goaltender who is finally stopping the pucks on a regular basis, they look primed to wrench open their window of success a little early.

St. Louis has been arguably the best team in the NHL right from the start, armed with an incredibly deep forward group and a Norris candidate defenseman. Even with some struggles from Jake Allen recently, the team keeps winning and could be unstoppable if he can find his form once again. The 27-year old goaltender struggled early on last year as well, before going on a Vezina-caliber run through the second half and early playoffs. St. Louis doesn’t look like they’re going away anytime soon.

What should be on the Predators Holiday Wish List?

Another scoring winger.

Despite locking up their core long-term this summer, the Predators actually have a bit of cap space to play with as they head into the months leading up to the trade deadline. Though young forward Fiala has been solid on the powerplay and Turris has added another dimension down the middle, they still rely too heavily on their top three to handle the scoring load. One more forward capable of playing somewhere in the middle-six could push them over the edge.

After already dealing Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev and a second-round pick to obtain Turris, it’s not clear if Poile wants to sacrifice more future assets for help this season. But if a big, scoring winger were to shake loose at the deadline, they’d surely have to take a look.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Which Defenseman Is Most Likely To Reach Free Agency In 2019?

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When Craig Custance of The Athletic told Drew Doughty about the “Superclass” of defensemen scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in 2019—a group that includes the aformentioned Kings’ defender along with Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh and Ryan Ellis among others—all he said was “I didn’t know any of that.” 

To be sure, even if Doughty didn’t know about the long list, general managers around the league will have noticed long ago. Obviously, many of these players will be re-signed long before free agency even comes close. Each of them is eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1, 2018 and likely will as soon as they’re able. Others though may take some time with their decision. When you’re talking about contracts that could push eight years and $80MM (or even higher), players often want to know exactly where the team will be when the deal starts.

So which of the those five is most likely to make it to free agency? Each have been core players with their respective teams for many years, but each have different situations surrounding them. Ekman-Larson is in the midst of another disappointing season in the desert, while Ellis has been criminally underpaid for several years. Make sure to explain why in the comments below!

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