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PHR Mailbag: Kuznetsov, Sabres, Predators, Maple Leafs, Coaches

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, Toronto’s recent history of first-round exits, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

2012orioles: Do the Capitals look to shop Kuznetsov?

First, GM Brian MacLellan needs to sit down with Kuznetsov’s new agents at Newport to see what the center’s preference is.  It’s no secret that they were listening to offers on him a couple of years ago although nothing came to fruition in terms of a deal.  Since then, the 30-year-old has had one strong season (78 points in 79 games in 2021-22) and one underwhelming campaign (55 points in 81 games this season).

Kuznetsov only has two years left on his deal after this one which actually helps Washington a bit if they do look to move him.  Yes, his price tag of $7.8MM is on the high end, especially if he keeps hovering in the 50-60-point range but a team that’s looking for a short-term stopgap until a prospect is ready for that role could find him more desirable than someone who’s signed long-term, even if that player has a lesser AAV.  I’m not saying they’d get a premium return or anything but I think there would be a decent trade market.

But at the end of the day, the answer to this question is likely dictated by MacLellan’s intentions for next season.  If they’re rebuilding, he probably goes.  If they’re looking for a quick retool and to get back in the playoff picture next season, I think Kuznetsov stays, barring a public trade request that might force their hand.  With Nicklas Backstrom no longer the player he once was and their young middlemen (Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre) not ready for tough NHL minutes yet, they need Kuznetsov if they’re aiming for a Wild Card spot or better next season.

joebad34: Do the Sabres move on from Okposo and Girgensons? What defenseman would they potentially look to pursue in a trade or free agency to fill a top-four spot? Is Dumba a fit?

Let’s start with the forwards.  If Kyle Okposo wants to come back, I think Buffalo will have a spot for him.  It might not be particularly high on the depth chart but I suspect they’d like to keep their captain in the fold as this is still a pretty young roster overall.  This is a group that will have playoff aspirations next season so having a veteran that has the respect of the team wouldn’t hurt.  Plus, Okposo can still be effective in a limited role.

I don’t expect Zemgus Girgensons to be back though.  If they want to make a push for a postseason spot, they’ll need to upgrade their roster this summer and that’s one roster spot they can upgrade on.  Girgensons is a capable fourth-line pivot but after nine years with Buffalo, a change of scenery wouldn’t hurt.

As for the defensemen, Mathew Dumba is a logical target on the free agent market.  He’s capable of logging big minutes and plays on the right side which is where their depth is a bit weak.  I also think there’s a bit of an upside play in signing him if he can get back to his old form.  The one question I have though is how much does Buffalo want to spend long-term on the back end?  Rasmus Dahlin is going to be very expensive in 2024-25 as will Owen Power.  Mattias Samuelsson is already on a long-term deal.  You’re probably looking at well over $20MM for those three at that time; can they afford another bigger-ticket deal in their salary structure and if they can, do they want to?

As for other free agent targets, Damon Severson is also in Dumba’s tier but the same questions exist.  If they want to go for a shorter-term pickup, Kevin Shattenkirk and John Klingberg are veteran right-shot players that could give them an offensive boost, take a regular shift, and balance out the lineup without being a long-term commitment on the books.  If they’re shopping in the short-term tier, Anthony DeAngelo could be a trade target and if Nashville sticks with the rebuild, Tyson Barrie should be available as well.  They’re both on expiring deals which might be appealing.

Gbear: Does new Preds GM Barry Trotz keep John Hynes behind the bench or move on from him?

Jakeattack: Do you think Trotz will try to move either Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene this summer?

Let’s combine the Nashville queries.  Two months ago, I would have leaned toward a coaching change.  The fire sale was on and if a new era was beginning, why not do so with a new coach?  But then the Predators had quite a run down the stretch with the team coming to life.  If Trotz thinks there’s any chance of that being sustainable, it’d be hard to move on from Hynes.

He has one year left on his deal which gives Trotz an easy option to kick the can down the road.  Let him start on an expiring contract and if things go sideways early on, make an in-season change for an interim option and at that point, it’s probably heading toward a rebuild.  If things go well, let the season play out and re-assess 12 months from now.  I think he stays but I will say this, I am not doing well at predicting what happens in Nashville this season and if recent history repeats itself, this prediction might not hold up for long.

Unlike that coaching prediction, I’m actually confident in this next one.  Yes, Trotz will try to move those two, Johansen especially.  At $8MM apiece for at least two more years (Johansen is signed through 2024-25, Duchene 2025-26), they’re not getting a great return on those deals.  Neither has emerged as a capable top center and while Duchene’s a capable number two, that’s a big price tag for someone in that role.  That money could likely be more efficiently spent elsewhere.

Of course, 31 other teams around the league know that.  The time to move Duchene was probably a year ago when he had 43 goals and 86 points.  His performance this season only dipped his value.  Johansen, meanwhile, is coming off a 28-point campaign, albeit one that saw him miss 27 games due to injuries.  Unless they’re swapping a bad contract for another bad contract (and in a market where so many teams are capped out, that can’t entirely be ruled out), I don’t expect there to be any interest in him.  Trotz I’m sure will try to move these contracts but it’ll be much easier said than done.

W H Twittle: Is there a rational explanation for the Leafs’ playoff successes?

Assuming you mean their lack of playoff success, I think there is.  In those series, they lost the goaltending battle.  In 2017, it was Braden Holtby allowing two goals or fewer in three games, all Toronto losses.  In 2018, Tuukka Rask wasn’t great in that series but he outplayed Frederik Andersen.  The next year, Rask was much better.

In the bubble, Columbus’ goalies picked two shutouts in five games.  A year later, Carey Price did just enough to outduel Jack Campbell to kickstart Montreal’s improbable run to the Final.  And last season, Andrei Vasilevskiy was between the pipes.  All in all, three future Hall of Famers, another goalie who led his team to the Stanley Cup, and Columbus’ netminders shining.

One can discuss the coaching and the underachieving stars and that’s fine.  But if you’re looking for a quick, simple, rational explanation, Toronto got ‘goalied’ in several of their recent quick playoff exits.

Gmm8811: Who do you see as up-and-coming AHL coaches? Have you heard of any recent former players that want to make the jump to coaching?

If you’re asking about up-and-coming AHL coaches that could soon make the jump to the NHL, Mitch Love (Calgary) should be the first to come to mind.  He just won Coach of the Year there for the second season in a row and had a good run with WHL Saskatoon before that.  Just 38, he’s the type of young coach that someone should take a chance on.  I’d also put Marco Sturm in that mix.  He’s the coach of the Kings’ affiliate in Ontario.  With his experience there plus internationally as a coach, I think he’ll get a chance at some point.

As for recent former players, those that want to coach somewhere typically are able to do so, either at the junior or minor league level.  Accordingly, I don’t really have a list of former players that are looking to join those ranks; if they want to, they’re probably already there.  I’ll give you one name to keep an eye on though in Marc Savard, head coach with OHL Windsor.  While they were a surprisingly quick exit in the playoffs this year, that franchise has done pretty well in his limited time there and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone offers him an AHL head coaching job or an assistant spot on an NHL bench for next season.

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Offseason Checklist: Anaheim Ducks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  First up is a look at Anaheim.

After a 2021-22 campaign where things didn’t go well, there was hope that the Ducks would take a step forward with their young core continuing to improve.  While some of those players did show improvement, it didn’t lead to much success on the ice with some changes already happening.  Here’s a look at what’s on the horizon for Anaheim this summer beyond what’s expected to be an exciting draft lottery for them next month with the top odds in the proceedings.

Hire New Coaches

It didn’t take long after the regular season for the Ducks to part ways with Dallas Eakins, a move that many anticipated with the way the year went and the fact his contract came to an end.  Anaheim allowed 4.09 goals per game this season, the highest goals-allowed average since the mid-90s which played a big role in them finishing last.  That dropped Eakins’ record with Anaheim to 100-147-44 over four seasons which helped lead to the coaching change.

As is typically the case in a situation like this, GM Pat Verbeek is faced with two options.  The first is to look for a first-time coach with an eye on being more development-focused to take the team through the rest of their rebuild and perhaps beyond.  The other is looking for more of a win-now option to try to coax shorter-term success.  That type of hire would need to coincide with the team becoming bigger spenders in free agency this summer which doesn’t seem likely.  A first-time or relatively inexperienced bench boss seems like the probable outcome here.

Meanwhile, an NHL head coach isn’t the only vacancy they’ll be looking to fill as for the second straight season, Verbeek will be searching for an AHL bench boss while it’s the third time in a row the franchise has been seeking one.  A year ago, he fired Joel Bouchard who had been on the job for just a single season while Roy Sommer opted to retire after one season with the team.  They’ll certainly be hoping that the third time will be the charm on that front.

Sign Key RFAs

Anaheim finished this season near the bottom in spending among all NHL teams.  That probably won’t be the case in 2023-24 as they have three key restricted free agents to deal with this summer in winger Troy Terry, center Trevor Zegras, and defenseman Jamie Drysdale.

Terry is an example of a bridge contract going as well as possible.  Three years ago, he had a total of 81 games under his belt with all of 28 points.  Now, he has established himself over the last two seasons as a reliable key scorer, reaching the 60-point mark in each of them, giving him a much better platform to his first year of arbitration eligibility.  There aren’t a lot of comparables for players that were role players for a few seasons before emerging as top-line threats but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Terry’s next deal wind up above the $7MM mark on a long-term agreement that buys out several UFA seasons.  He won’t be on a heavily team-friendly contract anymore.

As for Zegras, he has positioned himself to try to bypass the bridge deal altogether.  While he has had plenty of highlight-worthy plays, he isn’t just good at those as he has also emerged as a legitimate top-six center.  Zegras has surpassed the 60-point mark in back-to-back years as well while playing the more premium position down the middle.  We’ve seen post-ELC centers around his point total signing around the $8MM mark over the last couple of years so it stands to reason that a long-term deal for Zegras should be near that point as well.  Notably, he still has five RFA years remaining; most players coming off their entry-level agreements typically have four years left.

While Zegras should avoid a bridge agreement, the same can’t be said about Drysdale.  Injuries limited the 21-year-old to just eight games this season and his rookie campaign saw him suit up just 24 times.  Accordingly, he doesn’t even have a year and a half of NHL contests under his belt which would make a long-term agreement that much more difficult.  Drysdale figures to be a key cog in Anaheim’s future plans but more time is needed to see how he’s going to develop.  A short-term second agreement makes sense all around and he, too, has five RFA years remaining.

Qualify Or Cut

A couple of years ago, it looked like winger Max Comtois was going to be a big part of Anaheim’s future.  He was coming off a 33-point season in 55 games, showing signs of becoming a capable power forward along the way.  Even so, then-GM Bob Murray opted for caution, giving him a two-year bridge deal.

It’s safe to say that decision worked out for Anaheim as the 24-year-old has struggled considerably since then.  This season, Comtois potted just nine goals and ten assists in 64 games with his playing time dipping to a career low while also spending time as a healthy scratch.

Accordingly, at a time when he was supposed to be cementing his case for a long-term agreement, his performance has called into question his future with the team.  Comtois is owed a qualifying offer of $2.45MM this summer.  Two years ago, it would have seemed unthinkable that the Ducks might want to consider not tendering it but now, it’s something Verbeek will have to consider.

It was previously reported that Comtois was available at the trade deadline with there not being much interest at the time so on the surface, a non-tender might make sense.  But is it worth giving him one last look with the hopes that a new coach can help him return to the form of 2021-22 and avoid the potential of him taking that step in another uniform?  They have a couple of months to make that choice.

Goalie Decision

The future of John Gibson has been in question for the last few seasons.  Here’s a player who was signed to be Anaheim’s long-term franchise goaltender but since that deal kicked in, things just haven’t gone very well for him and while playing for a rebuilding franchise doesn’t help, Gibson has certainly struggled as well.

Over the four years that he has played on this deal, Gibson has a 3.32 GAA and a SV% of .902.  He also has led the league in losses in three of those four seasons.  Suffice it to say, he hasn’t provided a great return on his $6.4MM AAV.  On top of that, the 29-year-old has four years left on that agreement.

Generally speaking, an underachieving player with four years left on his deal wouldn’t have much value on the trade market but are there teams convinced that in a different system and working with a different goalie coach, they can turn him around?  It’s possible, especially in a year when the free agent market isn’t exactly booming with plentiful high-end options.

If that’s the case, is the time right for Verbeek and the Ducks to explore a move?  Would Gibson himself be open to a move?  With the way things are currently trending, it’s definitely a possibility.  His value likely isn’t super high with his recent struggles and the remaining term on his contract but if a decent swap presents itself, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a move.

If that happens, Anaheim will have to look to add a veteran replacement, either as part of the trade or in a separate acquisition or signing.  Lukas Dostal is viewed as their goalie of the future but has just 23 NHL appearances under his belt.  Gibson was supposed to be his playing partner for a while to allow Dostal to get acclimated to being a full-time NHL player and if he’s no longer going to be part of the equation, they’ll need another veteran to fill that role, even in a summer where Verbeek will be looking to add young core pieces.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Playoff Primer: Colorado Avalanche vs. Seattle Kraken

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We wrap up our First Round coverage with the Central Division matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Seattle Kraken.

Some in NHL circles had optimistic expectations for the initial Seattle Kraken roster after their expansion draft and free agency period. While there were notable names general manager Ron Francis opted not to add to his lineup, the team he constructed was analytically sound and, if their transition game held up, could be competitive in a weak Western Conference.

Needless to say, it didn’t turn out that way. A finish near the bottom of the league gave Seattle two high-end center prospects in their first two drafts, with one of them the frontrunner for this year’s Calder Trophy. Slightly improved goaltending and high-end depth scoring have positioned the Kraken as the most-improved expansion team from year 1 to 2 in NHL history, but their first foray into the postseason won’t be easy.

Despite finishing with 100 points, Seattle failed to clinch a divisional playoff spot thanks to other divisional rivals going on massive winning streaks at the right time. Unfortunately, that means they face off against the Colorado Avalanche, who finished third in the conference despite significant injuries and, if you happened to forget, are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Regular Season Performance

Colorado: 51-24-7, 109 points, +54 goal differential
Seattle: 46-28-8, 100 points, +33 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 21, 2022: Seattle 3, Colorado 2
January 21, 2023: Colorado 2, Seattle 1 (SO)
March 5, 2023: Seattle 3, Colorado 2 (OT)

Seattle takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

Seattle will need all hands on deck if they’re to win their first-ever playoff series against Colorado. The Avalanche are as healthy as they’re going to get to start the postseason, and they finished the regular season on an 8-1-1 tear.

That means a lot of pressure on rookie Matthew Beniers, the presumptive Calder Trophy winner who centers the team’s top line between Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle. He finished fourth on the team in scoring with 57 points in 80 games, but it’s his strong two-way game that grabbed the attention of most this season, especially for such a young player.

It begs the question — will Beniers see matchups against Nathan MacKinnon? If so, can his promising defensive analytics yield success for the Kraken in helping to slow down one of the best playoff performers in recent memory? Few would be surprised to see coach Dave Hakstol utilize a more experienced option at center against MacKinnon, such as Alexander Wennberg or Yanni Gourde, but Beniers’ all-around play in the regular season has earned him a chance at heavy usage in the playoffs.

The larger factor that could lead to a Kraken upset, though, is their well-balanced attack. Seattle had six 20-goal scorers this season, including bottom-six talents Oliver Bjorkstrand and Daniel Sprong. While goals from your bottom six are generally a key to success in the playoffs, some numbers suggest the Kraken have scored more goals than they’ve earned. The Kraken scored 32.6 goals above expected at even-strength this season, per MoneyPuck, leading the league by a wide margin. If their elite finishing runs dry, it could be a quick exit for Seattle.

In net for Seattle will be Philipp Grubauer, who had some decent playoff outings in past years while a member of the Avalanche. He’s seemed to regain some of his former touch after an incredibly disappointing first year with the Kraken, posting a 14-7-3 record and .902 save percentage in 26 games since the calendar turned to 2023.

For Seattle to pull off the upset, he’ll need to match his Colorado counterpart. Alexandar Georgiev has quietly given the Avalanche high-end goaltending in his first season with the team. The 27-year-old silenced all doubts by starting 62 games, leading the league with 40 wins, and stopping 21.9 goals above expected (MoneyPuck). He’ll be making his first career playoff start tonight, though, only appearing in two games in relief during last year’s playoff run with the New York Rangers.

Colorado’s secondary objective in this series, other than continuing their championship defense, will be to escape without another significant injury. They’ll be without captain Gabriel Landeskog for the entire postseason, and all of their right-side defenders (Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, and Josh Manson) have missed significant periods of time.

Staying healthy allows Colorado to match Seattle at their strength — scoring from the middle six. Colorado’s top talent obviously overtakes that of Seattle, and while only Artturi Lehkonen registered 20 goals this year outside of MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, a healthy group of depth forwards can still score enough to give Colorado a series win.

Prediction

There’s no question the Kraken will come out excited, especially given their opponent. But hoping for some expansion team magic in the style of the Vegas Golden Knights’ first playoff appearance may be a little misguided.

Questions about consistency in goal still plague the Kraken, and, if Georgiev maintains his regular season performance, are enough to be the difference in this series alone. Colorado’s healthy top four on defense still remains the best in the West and are a viable antidote to Seattle’s consistent offense.

The prediction: Colorado wins in five games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Vegas Golden Knights vs Winnipeg Jets

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs upon us, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Winnipeg Jets.

The #1 vs #8 seed in the Western Conference is not going to be a walk in the park for the top-seeded Vegas Golden Knights. They were able to hold off the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche for the top spot in the Western Conference, and while that gives them home-ice advantage throughout the first three rounds, it does not give them an easy matchup in any of those potential series.

The Winnipeg Jets were able to hold off the Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators for the final playoff spot in the west. A 7-3-0 run just before their final game of the season was enough to clinch that spot. Vegas was even hotter down the stretch, finishing 9-1-3 in their final 13 games.

Who can keep the hot streak alive for two more weeks and emerge victorious in a much tighter #1 vs #8 series than we are used to seeing in the opening round?

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Winnipeg: 46-33-3, 95 points, +22 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 20, 2022: Vegas 5, Winnipeg 2

October 30, 2022: Vegas 2, Winnipeg 1 (OT)

December 13, 2022: Vegas 6, Winnipeg 5

Vegas takes the season series 3-0

Team Storylines

Which Winnipeg Jets team shows up? We have seen a few different versions of the Winnipeg Jets this season. The first version was terrific, as the Jets were the best team in the Western Conference for the first half of the season. They started the year with a 29-14-1 record which put them fourth in the NHL on January 16 but leading the west. A couple of tough road trips to the east followed and a bit of a free-fall began in Winnipeg.

Between January 16 and March 20 the Jets went 10-15-2 to fall to the edges of the playoff race. Instead of talking about the top seed or even home-ice advantage, they were just scrambling to try and get in at all. Then they got hot again and finished the season 7-4-0 to get into the playoffs as the final wildcard seed.

So which Jets team do we see in the next two weeks? The best team in the west like we saw for more than three months to begin the season? The struggling team that showed up for about two months late in the year or the back-against-the-wall squad that was able to grind out wins in the final couple weeks?

Will Mark Stone return to make a difference? While the Jets were the top team in the west at some points, the Golden Knights were right behind them. The difference was the Golden Knights were able to remain consistent throughout the season, even while dealing with some huge injuries. One of the biggest injuries they suffered was to Mark Stone, a fantastic two-way winger who is capable of scoring at a point-per-game pace and is better defensively than offensively. He has been out of the Vegas lineup for the second half of the season and the team began the year 28-13-2 with Stone in the lineup. He was cleared for contact recently and could be back as soon as Game 1. If so, the team that finished the season at the top of the Western Conference just got a whole lot better.

Can Connor Hellebuyck continue late-season heroics? Hellebuyck’s season kind of mirrored the Jets season. He was fantastic for the first three months of the season, but then slipped a bit and did not have great numbers in January, February or March. However, he was able to recapture his magic late in the season and helped the Jets clinch a playoff spot with some spectacular play in their final handful of games. In his last ten games he had a 1.80 GAA and a .936 SV% to propel the Jets into the playoffs. If he can keep up that terrific play, the Jets will be in great shape.

Can the Knights find a reliable starting goalie? While the Jets have one of the NHL’s most reliable, and busiest goaltenders, the Knights had a hard time finding a consistent goaltender most of the season. Adin Hill and Logan Thompson played the most games for the Golden Knights this season in goal, and were steady as they each posted a .915 SV%. However, Hill was hurt over a month ago and has not played a game since March 7. Thompson has also dealt with injuries and has only played one game since February 9.

The Kings acquired veteran Jonathan Quick at the trade deadline but he doesn’t appear to have the same Stanley Cup winning magic he had a decade ago. Quick played ten games with the Golden Knights, posting a 3.13 GAA and a .901 SV% in that time.

It appears their starter could be Laurent Brossoit, who recently served as Hellebuyck’s rarely used backup for three seasons. Brossoit played most of this season in the AHL with the Henderson Silver Knights before being called up due to Hill and Thompson being injured. He played great down the stretch, winning his five April starts while posting a 1.59 GAA and a .946 SV%. Can he continue that hot streak into the postseason? Can he stare down his former teammate in the opposite goal and match him save for save? If so, the Golden Knights have a terrific chance of advancing.

How does Jack Eichel perform in first ever playoff series? Golden Knights leading scorer Jack Eichel is 26 years old and has had a great career so far, but he will suit up for his first ever playoff game when this series begins. He has scored 446 points in 476 career regular season games, but the playoffs are a different entity.

Whose depth proves to be greater? While Eichel was the team’s leading scorer, he only had 66 points. He did also only play 67 games so it was a great season for him, but there are no Art Ross Trophy candidates on this roster. That doesn’t mean they can’t score, as they have plenty of depth with Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Alex Pietrangelo and William Karlsson all scoring more than 50 points and Mark Stone certainly would have if healthy.

The Jets roster is built similarly. Kyle Connor had nearly a point-per-game season with 80 points in 82 games and Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nino Niederreiter and Cole Perfetti can all contribute plenty of offense.

It will be a difficult task for both teams defensive pairs to shut down all three of the opposing team’s top lines and should lead to some depth players stepping up to play big roles in this series since neither team is leaning on just a couple of players to provide scoring. Both teams are set up for balanced scoring and it will be interesting to see if anyone can step up and score over a point per game in the series to give their team the edge.

Prediction

The prediction: On paper, the Jets look just as good as the Golden Knights, and they were at times, but they found ways to be inconsistent throughout the season. The Knights on the other hand were able to continue their winning ways even with key players out of the lineup for long stretches. The Golden Knights will outlast the Jets in a long, hard-fought series and win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Central Division matchup between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild.

For the second time in their history, these two franchises linked at the hip will face each other in a first-round matchup. After losing in six games to the Stars in 2016, the shorthanded Wild are once again tasked with attempting to knock out the team that preceded them in the hockey capital of the United States.

Dallas has enjoyed their first 100-point season since defeating the Wild in 2016, while the Wild maintained their grip on a divisional playoff spot despite the absence of Kirill Kaprizov for much of the season’s last few weeks. Now likely without another important piece in Joel Eriksson Ek to start the series, though, Minnesota will need to continue their next-player-up mentality to avoid their seventh straight first-round loss.

Regular Season Performance

Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential
Minnesota: 46-25-11, 103 points, +21 goal differential

Head-To-Head

December 4, 2022: Minnesota 6, Dallas 5 (SO)
December 29, 2022: Dallas 4, Minnesota 1
February 8, 2023: Minnesota 1, Dallas 4
February 17, 2023: Dallas 1, Minnesota 2 (SO)

Season series tied 2-2

Team Storylines

These two teams present an interesting matchup for an unusual reason: each team’s two biggest strengths may just cancel each other out.

Jason Robertson’s season needs no introduction. Not only did his 109 points finish tied for sixth in the NHL, but they also blew past Mike Modano’s Dallas single-season record of 93, set back in 1993-94, the team’s first year in Texas.

Unfortunately, he’s matched up against Kaprizov, who nabbed the Calder Trophy away from Robertson in 2021. Despite missing 15 games, Kaprizov potted 40 goals for a second straight season and played over 21 minutes per game.

Where Dallas pulls away in this matchup, at least on offense, is their center depth, especially with Eriksson Ek’s injury concerns. While the Wild cornerstone center is progressing faster than anticipated in his return from a lower-body injury, Dallas’ lineup down the middle of Roope Hintz, Max Domi (or Tyler Seguin), rookie Wyatt Johnston, and potential Selke contender Radek Faksa could prove tough matchups for Minnesota’s lacking center core.

The x-factor in Eriksson Ek’s absence will undoubtedly be Ryan Hartman, who’s still a top-six player but not the 34-goal scorer we saw last season. After putting up five assists in six playoff games against St. Louis last season, they’ll need similar playoff production from him between Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello to round out their depth.

Both teams also boast some of the best young goalies in the league, but they carry different degrees of certainty. Dallas knows what they’re getting in the postseason with 24-year-old Jake Oettinger, who nearly had one of the most incredible series steals in NHL history against Calgary last year with a .954 save percentage in a seven-game loss.

For the Wild, Filip Gustavsson, also 24, finished near the top of NHL leaderboards with a .931 save percentage and 2.10 goals-against average, albeit with only 37 starts compared to Oettinger’s 61. That’s because the battle-tested Marc-Andre Fleury remains an option for Minnesota after recording a .906 save percentage and a 2-3 record in five games against St. Louis last season.

Both teams boast stingy defenses, although Dallas’ actual results this season overpower that of Minnesota’s reputation. That’s not to discredit how well the Wild limited chances against this season — however, Dallas finished second in the NHL in expected goals against, per MoneyPuck, behind only the Carolina Hurricanes. If Dallas can impose their system against an already somewhat goal-starved Wild team, it could be another early exit for Minnesota.

Prediction

The Minnesota Wild are a good hockey team with distinct strengths. However, the Stars don’t provide an advantageous stylistic matchup for Minnesota’s first series win in eight years.

Dallas has had a better season at both ends of the puck and boasts the goalie with stronger recent playoff experience and more stamina as a starter. None of this includes the track record of first-year head coach Peter DeBoer, notorious for making deep playoff runs in his first seasons with a team.

Both teams play structured games, though, and it shouldn’t be a quick out for the Wild by any means. Dallas has the necessary advantages to pull out a series win, though, as they look to return to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in four years.

The prediction: Dallas wins in six games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs set to begin tomorrow, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Atlantic Division showdown between the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers.

With each record that they set during their 65-win, 135-point regular season, the focus began to shift for the Boston Bruins. They’ve known they’d be making the playoffs since December, if not earlier. While other teams went to battle with the focus of securing a playoff spot, the Bruins were chasing records etched into the books by some of the NHL’s most historic teams. Now? The records have been set, their regular season is over, and they’re now in the same postseason boat as everybody else: zero wins, zero losses.

For this Boston team, making a deep run is considered the bare minimum. Anything less than a berth in the conference finals will feel like a disappointment, and it’s very likely that anything less than a Stanley Cup victory will leave fans in New England wanting more.

For the Florida Panthers, it was an uneven regular season that left them in the wholly undesirable position of being Boston’s first-round opponent. There are many who will expect these Panthers to serve as the Washington Generals to Boston’s Harlem Globetrotters, but just write them off in this series would be a mistake.

One must remember that it was just a few years ago that the Tampa Bay Lightning flirted with regular-season history, only to be swept in the first round of the playoffs against a hungry Blue Jackets team that just barely scraped their way into the playoffs. This is a scrappy Panthers team looking to move past the disappointment that defined their elimination in last year’s playoffs, led by new franchise face Matthew Tkachuk.

Will the Bruins take their first step toward a place in hockey history? Will their regular-season dominance extend to the postseason in a way it couldn’t for the 2018-19 Lightning? Or will we see another historic upset, perhaps even with reigning Calder Cup Champion Alex Lyon leading Florida to glory?

Regular Season Performance

Boston: 65-12-5, 135 points, +128 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 17th, 2022: Boston 5, Florida 3
November 23rd, 2022: Florida 5, Boston 2
December 19th, 2022: Boston 7, Florida 3
January 28th, 2023: Florida 4, Boston 3

Series tied 2-2

Team Storylines

The Bruins are one of the NHL’s deepest, most talented teams, with a lineup full of top-end talent and valuable role players. You don’t set the NHL record for regular-season success without an elite lineup, after all. But the major question for the Bruins is something relatively out of their control: health.

They have experience, with a few players remaining from the team’s 2011 Stanley Cup victory and even more from the 2019 roster that just barely missed out on a championship. They have scoring talent, led by 61-goal, 113-point scorer David Pastrnak, defensive talent, and a goalie who posted an otherworldly .938 save percentage in the regular season.

But among those top players, there are some health-related question marks. We covered reports earlier today that Bruins captain Patrice Bergeron could miss the first game of the series, and Linus Ullmark has been dealing with an undisclosed injury in recent days, though he did practice yesterday with no restrictions.

This Bruins team is one that has 2019 Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall listed as a third-liner, alongside Tyler Bertuzzi, who has scored 16 points in 21 games in Boston. They have a stable full of versatile, capable players who can handle any situation thrown at them. The major question, then, will be if those players can stay healthy, and if they can maintain the standard of play they set in the regular season in the more intense environment of the playoffs.

There are no roster-related question marks surrounding this Bruins team, as long as they stay healthy. The main storyline to watch for this series, from their perspective, will be availability and execution, and those are two factors that are impossible to fully evaluate before the puck is dropped tomorrow.

For Florida, the main storyline relates to their situation in their crease.

With the Panthers’ season on the line, the team turned to Lyon, an AHL netminder who won the Calder Cup with the Chicago Wolves last season.

He played extremely well, rattling off a six-game winning streak that revived Florida’s fading playoff dreams.

If the Panthers want to have any hope of pulling off the impossible and becoming the second underdog to stun a record-setting, 60-plus win team in the first round, they’ll need Lyon to play as he did during the winning streak.

They’ll also need their penalty kill to step up, as the Bruins powerplay, while inconsistent, is capable of scorching hot stretches. The Panthers’ penalty kill ranked 23rd in the NHL this season, killing 76% of opposing man advantages. The Bruins killed off 87.3%, the highest rate in the NHL by a decent margin.

While goaltending will be the main focus in this series, special teams could also be the battleground where Florida either finds a way to get ahead or ends up falling apart.

Prediction

The Panthers are a quality team whose stellar play in recent weeks rightfully earned them a spot in the playoffs. With players such as Tkachuk, and Aleksander Barkov, and an experienced coach like Paul Maurice, they’re not exactly the easiest team to bet against. The pressure the Bruins will be facing as such a successful regular-season team will be immense, and to discount how impactful that pressure could be would be a mistake.

That being said, how realistic is the possibility that these Bruins, who barely ever lose consecutive games, fall to a team potentially starting a goalie with under 40 games of NHL experience? How likely is it that the possible final act of Bergeron’s illustrious NHL career ends with a humiliating upset loss to a division rival?

The Blue Jackets proved a few years ago that anything can happen in the Stanley Cup playoffs. NHL-caliber players on any team, regardless of where they are in the standings, have it in them to find a way to win any game, regardless of the challenge posed by their opposition.

In the final game of their regular season, the basement-dwelling Montreal Canadiens held their own against and nearly beat the Bruins. But in a seven-game series? That’s a far taller task, and it seems as though the Boston will have more than enough to outlast even the fiercest of challenges from the Panthers.

The prediction: Bruins win in six games.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders.

The opening game of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs will feature two teams on very different paths heading into the postseason. In this rematch of a 2019 Eastern Conference Second Round series, the Hurricanes and Islanders both have something to prove.

And, like that 2019 matchup which had just four total goals through its first two games, most would expect this series to be the most defensively inclined of the first round. With the Hurricanes struggling to put pucks in the net without their two best goal-scorers, though, will they be able to break through Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders’ ace in the hole, and avoid what could be one of the biggest upsets of the postseason?

Regular Season Performance

Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
NY Islanders: 42-31-9, 93 points, +21 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 28, 2022: NY Islanders 6, Carolina 2
December 10, 2022: Carolina 3, NY Islanders 0
January 21, 2023: Carolina 5, NY Islanders 2
April 2, 2023: NY Islanders 1, Carolina 2

Carolina takes the season series 3-1

Team Storylines

The question surrounding the Hurricanes is clear-cut: they’ll likely dominate the possession game in this series, but can they finish enough chances to win four out of seven games?

Goal-scoring has been the disease that’s plagued Carolina in playoffs past. In last year’s second-round elimination at the hands of the New York Rangers, Carolina only scored more than two goals in a game once, a 3-1 win in Game 5.

General manager Don Waddell made a pointed acquisition last summer to address the recurring concern by plucking Max Pacioretty away from the Vegas Golden Knights in a cap-dump move. Needless to say, it didn’t work out as planned, with back-to-back Achilles tears ending Pacioretty’s season and limiting him to just five games in a Carolina uniform.

With Andrei Svechnikov now out of the lineup, Carolina’s finishing touch has evaporated. Sebastian Aho’s pulled his weight with 36 goals this year, and Martin Necas’ career year has been a life-saving measure for the division champs. More will be needed out of support players like Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis, though, if Carolina wants to avoid an upset.

It’s an upset that more and more are surmising about publically, and for good reason. Sorokin has a legitimate claim to this year’s Vezina Trophy, and since the date of Svechnikov’s injury (March 11), Carolina is the only playoff team with a negative goal differential.

Despite Carolina’s weaknesses, the Islanders still have to execute well enough to win the series. Their 243 goals ranked just 23rd in the league and are the least among all playoff teams.

One key difference? The Islanders are getting healthy. Mathew Barzal is making his return to the lineup tomorrow night, settling on the wing alongside Anders Lee and Bo Horvat. The team’s top playmaking talent had been sidelined for almost two months with a lower-body injury.

With he and leading scorer Brock Nelson on two different lines, a fully healthy top six could be enough to crack an inconsistent Frederik Andersen in the crease for Carolina.

Prediction

With injuries playing a major factor in this series, this isn’t the David vs. Goliath matchup these two teams’ regular-season records suggest. The series will rely on opportunistic scoring to beat a stingy Hurricanes defense or an elite Islanders goalie, and could very easily see multiple momentum swings.

But despite Carolina’s suffocating pressure, the Islanders have a pointed history of eking things out in the postseason. With the momentum (and goaltending) on their side, expect some more playoff magic from a team that’s dealt with pressure all season long.

The prediction: Islanders win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Pacific Division matchup between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers.

A series that promises to be high scoring and hard fought will take place between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers in a rematch from a year ago. That series saw the Oilers take a lead with two blowout wins in Game 2 and 3 before falling behind 3-2 and then clawing back to win by allowing just two goals in the final two games. Connor McDavid carried the team to victory with 14 points in seven games and Mike Smith was great in goal with a .938 SV% in the series win.

The Kings were without Drew Doughty who was injured last season, but he is playing great hockey again with 52 points in 81 games this season. Adding Kevin Fiala to the lineup also gives the Kings a point-per-game player they did not have at their disposal a year ago. Doughty and Fiala give the Kings a big shot in the arm compared to a year ago, but the Oilers are playing some of the best hockey we have seen in Edmonton in decades.

Will it be the high-flying Oilers for a second consecutive season, or will the Kings exact some revenge from a first-round exit a year ago?

Regular Season Performance

Edmonton: 50-23-9, 109 points, +65 goal differential
Los Angeles: 47-25-10, 104 points, +23 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 16, 2022: Los Angeles 3, Edmonton 1

January 9, 2023: Los Angeles 6, Edmonton 3

March 30, 2023:Edmonton 2, Los Angeles 0

April 4, 2023: Edmonton 3, Los Angeles 1

Season series tied 2-2-0

Team Storylines

The Oilers enter the postseason with Connor McDavid riding one of the greatest offensive seasons we have witnessed. Scoring 64 goals and 153 points is something we saw in the 1980’s but is simply unheard of in today’s NHL. McDavid became just the sixth player in league history to score 150 points and the first to do it since Mario Lemieux in 1996.

Though he is well ahead of anyone else in the league, he is not the only Oiler piling up points this season. Leon Draisaitl scored 52 goals and 128 points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins added 37 goals and 104 points and Zach Hyman was over a point-per-game with 36 goals and 83 points in 79 games. Evander Kane missed significant time this season, but scored 16 goals and 28 points in 41 games and was a playoff beast a year ago, leading the postseason in goals with 13, even though the Oilers were eliminated in four straight games in the Western Conference Final.

Scoring is not, and never really was, an issue for the Oilers. The questions marks existed elsewhere, but have the Oilers patched those holes? They added Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, and he has been the defensive rock that they needed all along. Since adding Ekholm, the Oilers finished the season on an 18-2-1 run to ensure home-ice advantage in this series. He has been averaging well over 20 minutes of ice time per game and immediately rejuvenated the Oilers top-four defense along with Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard and Cody Ceci.

Do the Oilers have what it takes in goal to win a series? They thought they would be leaning on Jack Campbell at this time of year after signing him to a five-year contract with a $5MM annual cap hit just last summer. However, he struggled in his first season with the Oilers, posting a 3.41 GAA and a .888 SV%. Stuart Skinner has really taken over the starter’s role in the last quarter of the season, posting a 2.43 GAA and a .920 SV% since March 1 and giving the Oilers a reliable goaltender to lean on late in the season.

Another key to focus on is, will the Kings be able to slow down the offensive beast that is the Edmonton Oilers? A quick glance at their numbers show the Kings were not able to slow anyone down this season. They allowed 257 goals this season. The only playoff teams to allow more were the Florida Panthers and Oilers. It sure promises to be a high scoring series. With Doughty playing this time around and Vladislav Gavrikov acquired at the trade deadline, the Kings have a better chance of at least slowing down McDavid and Draisaitl. No one can stop those two, but if they are held to 7-9 points each in a series, it would force the Oilers depth pieces to add some scoring, which they are not always capable of doing.

What about the Kings goaltending? They did trade for a goaltender at the trade deadline and Joonas Korpisalo has been great for them. He played just 11 games after being acquired, but he had a 2.13 GAA and a .921 SV% to give the Kings confidence in a position that was a weakness for most of the season. If Korpisalo can continue to play like that in the first round, the Kings will be in good shape. But it is difficult for anyone to put up a .920 SV% against these Oilers, who were the highest scoring team in the NHL with 325 goals.

Special teams are always a key component in a playoff series and this will be no exception. The Oilers power play alone is enough to give goaltenders nightmares as it clicked at a 32.4% efficiency rate, which is the best power play percentage in NHL history. The Kings had a bottom ten penalty kill at 75.8%. That is not something that can be fixed overnight and could prove to be a huge problem against a team like the Oilers.

On the other hand, the Oilers penalty kill was not much better, killing off 77% of their penalties while the Kings power play converted on an impressive 25.3% of their chances. Staying out of the box is going to be key as neither team is strong while shorthanded, and both have the ability to do damage on the man advantage.

Prediction

The Kings have new pieces in place that should allow them to be more competitive this time around. Having Gavrikov and Doughty on defense, Korpisalo in goal as well as Phillip Danault who is one of the best shutdown centers in the league, should at least slow down McDavid a little bit. He is going to score on the power play, but if they can limit him at even strength, they will force the depth of the Oilers to step up, and they don’t have a lot of scoring behind their top four forwards. There won’t be two huge blowouts early in the series this time around.

The problem for the Kings is, the Oilers have addressed similar needs and now have Ekhlom as a defensive horse on the blue line and they are playing the best hockey we have seen out of any team in the past six weeks. McDavid and Draisaitl each averaged two points per game in the playoffs last spring, and both were somehow even better this season than ever before. Yes, they could use some depth scoring, but Mattias Janmark, Warren Foegele, Klim Kostin, Nick Bjugstad and Ryan McLeod give them reliable minutes even if they don’t score a ton. That can be left to the top two lines.

Yet another magical spring from McDavid and Draisaitl is about to begin, and they won’t be denied in round one. It will not be an easy one by any stretch, but the Kings offense just can’t match the Oilers scoring. Prediction: The Oilers win in six games.

PHR Playoff Primer: New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers.

There was a time in the 1990’s where it seemed like the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils would meet in the playoffs every spring. Now in 2023, they meet in the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. The last time the two teams met it was a dramatic back and forth six game Eastern Conference Finals series that ended with an Adam Henrique overtime goal to catapult the Devils into the Stanley Cup Finals.

What a difference a decade plus makes. The Devils haven’t won a series since that dramatic overtime victory, while the Rangers have won a lot of playoff hockey but haven’t been able to capture hockey’s ultimate prize. The battle of the Hudson River has always been a bitter rivalry, but it’s been a while since so much has been on the line for both teams.

The Devils and Rangers enter the playoffs poised to make a deep run, but only one will be able to escape the first round. This matchup may not be the most anticipated series in the first round, but it does seem like the series most likely to produce fireworks. The Devils believe they are destined for greatness, and they probably are, but will that happen this year, or will the Rangers make another deep playoff run?

Regular Season Performance

New Jersey Devils: 52-22-8, 112 points, +65 goal differential
New York Rangers: 47-22-13, 107 points, +58 goal differential.

Head-To-Head

November 28, 2022: New York 3, New Jersey 5

December 12, 2022: New York 4, New Jersey 3 (OT)

January 7, 2023: New Jersey 4, New York 3 (OT)

March 30, 2023: New Jersey 2, New York 1

New Jersey takes the season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

The Devils and Rangers franchises have had so much in common over the years, and even still do to some degree. Both franchises loaded up for these playoffs, can score in bunches and expect to go deep in the playoffs. But that is where the similarities end. They are built differently, have different experience, and have different strengths and weaknesses.

New Jersey plays with a ton of speed and skill, they push the pace and come at you in waves. But they are small. New York on the other hand plays big, they come at you with force and can crash over top of you. But they play slow in comparison. In a seven-game series it’s hard to predict who will bend first, will New York wear New Jersey down with their physicality? Or will the Devils tire out the Rangers with their pace? Advantage New Jersey.

On the backend, both teams boast strong blue lines. They both have shutdown defenseman, puck movers, point producers, speed, skill, and grit. The Rangers defense can do it all, they are one of the most elite units in the league, if not the most elite. They can’t move the puck quite as good as the Devils unit can, but they are much more physical. And in the playoff’s physicality can sometimes mean getting that extra inch of space to make a play, or providing that big hit that completely changes a series, just ask Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Advantage New York.

In goal, the comparisons dry up. New York boasts arguably the best goaltender in the world in Igor Shesterkin. But, after having a historic season last year, Shesterkin has looked human for much of this year. He has been up and down, evidenced by his drop in save percentage from .935 last year to .916 this season. For the Rangers to beat the Devils in a seven-game series, Shesterkin will need to play at a Vezina award winning level. Over in the Devils net Vitek Vanecek has given the Devils something they were desperately looking for, league average goaltending. Vanecek’s save percentage this year was .911 which was just a tick above his career average coming into this season. While Vanecek has never had an experience like this before and will have to deal with nerves, Shesterkin looked very human in last year’s playoffs and for long stretches of this past regular season. Despite his up and down play this year, one would have to believe that the goaltending advantage belongs to New York.

I mentioned star power earlier and both teams boast a ton of it up front and on the back end. The stars aren’t all home grown either, both teams have made significant trades over the last 12 months to bring in major pieces that they hope can give them that final push. The Rangers brought in Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko at the trade deadline, and while neither player his lit up the scoresheet, they have both provided secondary scoring. Kane has produced 12 points in 19 games since joining the Rangers, while Tarasenko has 21 points in 31 games. On the Devils side, they acquired arguably the biggest piece at the deadline in Timo Meier. Meier has also struggled to fit in but seems to be finally finding his footing. The former San Jose Shark has 14 points in 21 games since joining the Devils.

Ironically, the line that could set these teams apart might be a group of homegrown talent for the New York Rangers. Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko were dynamite together in the playoffs last season, particularly in the first round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They were a difference maker on a nightly basis. This season all three players have hovered around the 40-point mark during the regular season. If the trio can dial it back to 2022 and produce anything close to last year’s playoff magic it could be the difference between a Rangers series win, or a Devils series win.

Prediction

It’s hard to predict who will win a series when the teams are this evenly matched. When a matchup like this does occur, you must imagine that it will come down to whichever team can get their goaltender on a heater. Last year the Rangers outlasted Pittsburgh because the Penguins had to rely on their third string goaltender. This year they’ll have to hope that Shesterkin can return to his Vezina winning form to get past the Devils.

The other element that comes into play is experience. New York has a ton of experienced playoff performers, and the Devils are green. In a toss-up, this could be the piece that pushes one team past the other.

The prediction: Rangers win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Atlantic Division matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning.

In what may be the most hotly anticipated series of the First Round, two teams with lofty expectations will clash for the second straight year. Both teams have seen significant roster turnover since last year’s battle, with many new depth pieces looking to make impacts for Toronto, while Tampa returns without some members of the ancillary core that has gotten them to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.

The series presents a major test for both teams. They both enter the playoffs on wildly different trajectories based on the last few weeks of their regular season play — and those trajectories both contrast with the auras surrounding their recent playoff performance.

The potential reward for winning this war of attrition? The record-slaying Boston Bruins.

Regular Season Performance

Toronto: 50-21-11, 111 points, +57 goal differential
Tampa: 46-30-6, 98 points, +29 goal differential

Head-To-Head

December 3, 2022: Toronto 3, Tampa Bay 4 (OT)
December 20, 2022: Tampa Bay 1, Toronto 4
April 11, 2023: Toronto 4, Tampa Bay 3

Toronto takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

Anything else said about the immense pressure the Maple Leafs face to win a series would be a retread. How they avoid the mistakes of years past, though, combined with how they’ve addressed perceived weaknesses this season, is worth a deeper look.

In last season’s loss to the Lightning, Tampa held Toronto to four goals in Games 6 and 7. In 2021, Montreal held the Maple Leafs to three goals in the final two games. In the 2020 Qualifying Round against the Columbus Blue Jackets, they were shut out in the deciding Game 5. Offense evaporating at crucial times has kept the Maple Leafs from deep playoff runs.

The bulk of the pressure will again rest on the core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander to keep up their production as the series progresses. But Toronto’s acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly before the trade deadline should not be overlooked as a potential antidote to their offensive woes. He’s seemingly recaptured some offensive confidence despite decreased ice time, registering 11 points in 13 games since the trade and six points in five games since returning from a hand injury that kept him out for most of March. Combined with his winning pedigree and playoff experience, he’s one of two main x-factors for Toronto in this matchup.

The other is goaltending — and the potential for a surprise Game 1 starter. While Ilya Samsonov is still expected to start after his breakout campaign, he missed the last two games with minor injuries and, in his place, rookie Joseph Woll has posted spectacular numbers in limited action (6-1-0, .932 SV%, 2.16 GAA). The chances of the 24-year-old seeing playoff action are greater than zero, especially given Samsonov’s brief and shaky playoff history with the Washington Capitals. If Matt Murray clears concussion protocol and can provide an experienced relief option, that’s a bonus.

For Tampa Bay, this series represents the start of what the team hopes will be another deep playoff run, one that results in the franchise’s third Stanley Cup championship in four years. The main factor Tampa has going for them? They were in this exact position one year ago, and found a way to fend off Toronto in a grueling series. They created a blueprint for themselves to follow, just as they’ve done for the numerous teams they’ve eliminated over the past three seasons. That year-to-year playoff consistency is what makes them such a daunting first-round opponent despite their relatively inconsistent regular season.

Just like it is for Toronto, a major storyline for the Lightning is goaltending, only for different reasons. For Toronto, the question is whether Samsonov’s regular season success will translate to the playoffs, where he has been shaky in the past. For Tampa, the main question will be if the team will be able to once again count on playoff brilliance from Andrei Vasilevskiy after a regular season that was, while strong, not the dominant year many might have expected from him. The Maple Leafs have a lethal set of forwards and impressive depth.

If Vasilevskiy can make scoring goals feel impossible in the most important moments — just as Carey Price did for the Canadiens in 2021 — then Tampa will once again triumph. But if he can’t, and he proves to be more the mortal, beatable goalie he was at times this regular season than the impenetrable brick wall he was in the Lightning’s two Stanley Cup runs, then the Maple Leafs could finally get the playoff series win they’ve been waiting for.

Prediction

As most playoff series typically do, this battle is likely to come down to goaltending. On paper, Vasilevskiy is easily the more accomplished and reliable goalie. And if he shuts down Toronto’s scorers and Tampa once again proves victorious, that wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

But Toronto came close last year. They drew blood and nearly knocked out the eventual Prince of Wales winners, pushing them to the brink in a way no other Eastern Conference team could. Now, they’ve added a Conn Smythe Trophy winner, revamped their defense, added experienced depth forwards, and have gotten some of the best goaltending they’ve seen since Frederik Andersen’s departure.

This series could truly go either way, but at least at this moment, this year feels different. The prediction: Maple Leafs win in six games.

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