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PHR Mailbag: Devils, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Wild, Wright, Robertson, Thunderbirds, Top Pick

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Jason Robertson’s quiet start to the playoffs, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back later on as due to the volume of questions submitted, we’ll be running two more mailbags between now and next weekend.

SpeakOfTheDevils: What do the Devils do at the goalie position this summer? Obviously, Bernier retires, Blackwood isn’t qualified, do we run a Vanecek/Schmid platoon or trade Vanecek for someone like Saros or Hellebuyck?

First, I’ll agree with you on the first two.  Jonathan Bernier has been out for over a year and a half so he clearly isn’t returning.  I still think Mackenzie Blackwood can be a good NHL goalie but after being relegated to third-string status for the playoffs plus his $3.36MM qualifying offer, he’s not coming back either.

I’ll start my answer to your question with another question.  Do the Devils think they can re-sign both Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier?  Neither are goaltenders obviously but they’re going to have an impact on what does – or doesn’t – happen between the pipes.

There’s only so much cap space to go around and a lot of what they have is going to have to go to those two, probably somewhere around $18MM, give or take.  If those two sign and they have big contracts on the books already in Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Dougie Hamilton, can they afford another big one?  Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck aren’t on contracts at that level yet but will be soon enough and I’m not sure it’s justifiable to make a move for one of them without being prepared to pay up for their next, much more expensive, deal.

Right now, I think New Jersey’s intention is to re-sign both wingers and that will more or less force their hand into going cheap between the pipes with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid so that’s what I’ll go with as an answer.  But if talks with one of them fall through and they wind up getting moved, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were to take a run at a goaltending upgrade.

PyramidHeadcrab: What’s the long-term plan for the Arizona Coyotes and Columbus Blue Jackets?

Arizona has become a dumping ground for bad contracts, and they trade away every quality asset they develop. They’re playing in an OHL-sized arena and icing a team that has no chance of competing. Are they built to serve other teams? I don’t see the goal here.

Columbus has flirted with the playoffs and hosted some genuine star talent at points, but they seem to be cursed with injuries and mediocre depth/prospects. Does Columbus ever pull it all together and reliably compete, or do they simply continue to exist in perpetual suffering?

This is certainly a topical question with the arena proposal for the Coyotes getting voted down earlier this week (and it was particularly timely as it came before the news broke).  Franchise-wise, I do think the team is going to take a serious look at trying to find a Plan B that works in the desert over the next eight-to-ten months.  If nothing presents itself, then relocation could very well be on the table with a new owner in place.

But as you noted in your follow-up comment, you were looking at more of the on-ice element for both teams.  For Arizona, they’ve made it clear that they haven’t had much desire to win for the last several years and based on GM Bill Armstrong’s comments earlier about where they are in that process, probably a few more.  I don’t think they’re concerned about not having an overly competitive team; their goal is competing a few years from now with a bunch of promising prospects growing together into a sustainable contender.  Taking on injured players allows them to keep net payroll costs down (they’re paying considerably less than the AAV after insurance) which is particularly important playing in the arena they’re currently in.  There’s an end game for this, it just won’t be seen for a little while longer.

As for Columbus, I’m not particularly bullish on their future.  I get that landing Johnny Gaudreau resulted in them trying to expedite things but clearly, it didn’t work.  They’re going to get a high-end talent with the third pick next month at least and they have some quality youngsters headlined by David Jiricek and Kent Johnson.  With them, Gaudreau, and Patrik Laine, there’s a good foundation.  But unless their new head coach can elevate their play to another level, this feels like a franchise whose peak might be a second-round exit or two.  That’s not terrible but while I wouldn’t necessarily say they’ll be perpetually suffering, I don’t see them getting over the proverbial hump anytime soon.

Zakis: What youngsters make the Wild opening day roster next year and what kind of impact do you think they can make? To piggyback on a comment, what is the role of a POHO? More focused on the on-ice product or business side? Thanks as always.

Let’s start with Brock Faber.  He didn’t look out of place in the playoffs and with Mathew Dumba and John Klingberg heading for unrestricted free agency in July, there should be a spot in the lineup for him.  Next season, I don’t think he’s going to make a huge impact right away but I could see his ATOI getting into the 16-18-minute range which would be a solid rookie year.

Up front, I think Marco Rossi breaks camp at least with Minnesota.  Now with basically two full AHL seasons under his belt, they need to get a feel for where he is development-wise.  If he winds up back on the fourth line eventually, then they can send him back down but I suspect he’ll get a look.  His impact might wind up being negligible, however.

I see the Wild being a team that could be active in free agency in September.  There are always free agent bargains to be had at that point and they might bring in a veteran or two that could push someone like Samuel Walker or Adam Beckman back to Iowa to start.  If you want a dark horse forward to break camp, I’ll throw out Caedan Bankier.  If they go young on the fourth line, his defensive game is good enough to stick while providing some offensive upside.  A good camp could have him in the mix.

As for the role of a President of Hockey Operations (or POHO), it varies from team to team.  Some are really involved in the day-to-day operations to the point where they could have the final say on strategy and personnel moves with the GM then going out and executing them.  Some teams don’t have a President of Hockey Operations, they just have a President (Minnesota is one of those with Matt Majka).  Some have a POHO on paper but in reality, they’re not overly involved with on-ice elements.  In those instances, they’re heavily involved in business strategy, marketing, and revenue growth.

aka.nda: Been wondering about Shane Wright’s next few seasons. Would a trade scenario be unconscionable? If not, what is his value like? Who would be a good fit and why?

It would be a bit of a shock to see a fourth-overall pick traded one year later but I suppose it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility.  For it to happen, Seattle would need to be convinced that he’s not going to pan out as they hoped a year ago which frankly, would be a particularly aggressive conclusion to draw for someone who has less than 30 games of professional experience under his belt.  GM Ron Francis is patient and this would be the opposite of that.  The other element required here would be another team would need to feel the other way, that he is still a high-quality center prospect.  That one is easier to see happening as I’m sure plenty of teams would want to get their hands on him.

From a trade value perspective, I’d peg it somewhere around what the tenth pick would fetch in a trade.  Last year wasn’t the deepest of drafts and his post-draft year wasn’t great (though it wasn’t bad either, by any stretch) so I think his value would be down slightly relative to a year ago.  From the fit side of things, anyone who needs a young center would be a fit on paper.  That’s a lot of teams.

I’m trying to think of a scenario that could make Francis pull the trigger and this is the best I could come up with.  A team makes a promising young center that’s 21 or 22 and either already in the NHL (or should be next season) available.  That player doesn’t fit the trading team’s timeline as they’re in a rebuild but Wright does.  I’m not sure there’s a team in a rebuild right now with someone that age with that much control and upside that could be made available in this scenario.  But that’s my guess on what it would take for them to move Wright that quickly.

jacl: What the hell is going on with Jason Robertson? This is two years in a row he has disappeared in the playoffs.

As much as Robertson has struggled to score, he still sat second on the Stars in points heading into the start of their series against Vegas at just under a point per game.  That’s not terrible.  I’d suggest that he has been better this year than 2022, his first taste of postseason action so that’s a step in the right direction, if nothing else.

It’s a simple answer but sometimes, it takes players a while to adapt to the different way that playoff hockey is played.  In particular, smaller offensive players can deal with some challenges with the tighter checking and greater physicality; look no further than Dallas’ first-round opponent in Minnesota who didn’t get a lot from Kirill Kaprizov that series.  Robertson enters this series with 19 playoff games under his belt which isn’t a whole lot.  There’s still a lot of time for him to figure out the nuances of playoff hockey, not just this year but beyond.  But it looks like it’s going to take him a bit longer to play at his regular season level in the postseason.

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Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Buffalo.

It has been quite a while since the Sabres made it to the playoffs (the last time they did was in 2011) but optimism is justifiably on the increase in Buffalo.  Several youngsters are starting to grab hold of key spots in the lineup which sparked an impressive second-half run that kept them close to the postseason until the very end.  Accordingly, a lot of their to-do list this offseason revolves around adding to and extending their core, not flipping players for prospects and draft picks.  The time for rebuilding is pretty much over.

Look At Adding A Veteran Starter

Between Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres have a pair of young promising prospects who could form a quality tandem before too long.  While it’s quite possible that those two could be the duo next season, that would carry some risk as the pair have 52 career NHL starts combined.  If this was another rebuilding year, perhaps playing both of them would carry some merit but it’s fair to suggest that there will be an expectation of them playing past the 82-game mark next season.

Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Kevyn Adams look at what’s out there in terms of trade or free agent options.  Anaheim’s John Gibson has been in trade speculation for a while and although Buffalo might not like the four years remaining on his contract, a change of scenery could get him back to being an above-average goaltender.  That would certainly give them a boost in the short term although it’d create a scenario where one of Luukkonen or Levi would likely need to be moved at some point if not as a part of that swap.

If Winnipeg winds up starting a rebuild and moving Connor Hellebuyck, he’d be particularly intriguing, even as a one-year rental.  He’d give the Sabres a significant boost and if the two youngsters weren’t in the swap, they could still try them as a cost-controllable tandem as soon as 2024-25.

In free agency, it’d be surprising to see them take a run at someone like Tristan Jarry.  However, veteran Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term upgrade, allowing Levi to spend some time with AHL Rochester while giving them an upgrade on what they got from veterans Craig Anderson (now retired) and Eric Comrie (still signed for one more year).

Buffalo is in decent shape here in the sense that they don’t necessarily have to make a move.  If they think Levi is ready to be a full-time NHL regular, there could be some upside to going with their top prospects although the risk is certainly higher as well.  But if they can bring in an upgrade, even if it’s just another shorter-term stopgap, it could certainly give them a lift for next season.

Extension Talks

The Sabres will have two prominent defensemen entering the final year of their respective deals and will thus be eligible for contract extensions as soon as July 1st.  Both players are in vastly different situations.

Rasmus Dahlin didn’t quite live up to the hype of being a franchise defenseman over his first three seasons.  There were flashes of dominance but he certainly had more than his fair share of struggles as well.  However, he showed some improvement once Don Granato took over down the stretch in 2020-21, doing well enough for the two sides to agree on a three-year bridge deal that summer.

Since then, Dahlin has certainly become Buffalo’s franchise blueliner.  He has been one of the top two-way rearguards in the league over the last couple of seasons and at 23, it’s fair to say that there is still room for improvement.  His qualifying offer next summer is $7.2MM but that’s not really relevant as there’s a very good chance that Dahlin will become the next NHL blueliner making $10MM or more on a long-term deal.

Then there’s Owen Power.  Like Dahlin, he was a first-overall selection but he’s still at just the beginning of his career having played his first full NHL campaign just this season.  However, by burning the first year with an eight-game appearance in 2021-22, he’s not far away from a new deal.  Have the Sabres seen enough to do a long-term contract now?  That’s far from a guarantee, nor is it that his camp would be willing to sign a long-term deal just 87 games into his NHL career.  Accordingly, while Adams will likely at least explore what the framework of an agreement might look like, this one might not get done this summer.

Determine Olofsson’s Future

Victor Olofsson has been a productive winger for Buffalo, notching at least 20 goals in three of the last four seasons.  However, for the bulk of those four campaigns, it would be fair to say that he has seemingly been on thin ice with the team.  He only received a bridge deal after his entry-level contract and then last year, basically signed a second one, one that gave him a nice raise to $4.75MM but only locked him up for one extra year of team control, 2023-24.

Even with setting a new benchmark for goals this season with 28, Olofsson found himself a healthy scratch at times while being on the fourth line at others, hardly the ideal spot for a player like him.

With back-to-back short-term contracts, the team has punted making a decision on Olofsson’s long-term future in Buffalo but it’s getting to be time to make that decision.  It’s not that they can’t go into next season with him in his walk year but more that they shouldn’t.  With more than 260 career games under his belt, the Sabres know what he can and can’t bring to the table.

Is what he can do worth keeping around?  If so, then they can start to work on an extension.  If not, the time might be right to try to move him before free agency before teams set their opening rosters.  With his cap hit, it would be a swap of players needing a change of scenery, perhaps the newcomer might be a better fit for the roster if they decide to move on from Olofsson.

Add An Impact Defenseman

Even with Dahlin and Power on the roster plus Mattias Samuelsson whose seven-year deal kicks in next season, there’s a definite need to upgrade the back end.  In particular, the right side of the blueline as those three are all left-shot blueliners, leaving Henri Jokiharju as the top option among right-shot rearguards.

Adding one more capable right-shot defender to the mix would nicely round out a back end that still has room for internal improvement as well.  Those players aren’t the easiest to trade for but with the Sabres having ample cap room in a summer when few teams can say that, that will give them an option to try to take advantage of another team’s cap challenges to try to fill that spot.

Alternatively, there are a couple of free agent options that would fit the bill as well in Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba.  Both players are capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night and have shown an ability to produce offensively in the past though both are coming off quieter-than-expected years.  Both are 28 so they will likely command a long-term deal but at the moment, Samuelsson is Buffalo’s only defenseman signed beyond 2023-24; some stability at that position probably wouldn’t hurt.

There was a significant gap between the defenseman that was fourth in ATOI this season (Jokiharju, 21:01) and fifth (Kale Clague, 15:06).  Balancing things out, especially with Samuelsson and Jokiharju having a recent history of injuries, should be high on the priority list, especially with no one else in their system that’s ready to make the jump and play a key role on an NHL roster in the near future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? Our Conference Finals coverage continues with the Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs semifinal matchups are set and the Sun Belt franchises will take center stage. While the Carolina Hurricanes will take on the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final, it will be the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights facing off to be the western conference champion.

While the Western Conference Final features two teams in non-traditional hockey markets, these are no cinderella squads on an unlikely run. In fact, the Stars and Golden Knights are two powerhouses who will go toe-to-toe in what promises to be an exciting, fast-paced and highly skilled matchup.

The Golden Knights finished atop the Pacific Division standings and were the top ranked team in the entire western conference with a record of 51-22-9 which gave them 111 points. The Stars were not far behind, finishing second in the Central Division with 108 points, just one back of the Colorado Avalanche for top spot in the division.

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential

Head-To-Head

January 16, 2023: Dallas 4, Vegas 0
February 25, 2023: Dallas 3, Vegas 2 (SO)
April 8, 2023: Dallas 2, Vegas 1 (SO)

Dallas takes season series 3-0-0

Team Storylines

One question for Vegas is whether or not star winger Mark Stone has another strong series in him. He is clearly dealing with back discomfort and appeared frustrated at times in the postseason as teams targeted him. He remained calm enough to score a pair of goals and four points in six games while playing great defensive hockey as usual. Can he continue to play well throughout the postseason? We shall soon find out.

Speaking of great defensive hockey, one question for the Stars is can they break through the Golden Knights defensive shield at even strength? The Edmonton Oilers could not get anything done at 5-on-5 against the Golden Knights, even with two of the league’s best players on their roster. The Oilers, the NHL’s highest scoring team in the regular season, scored ten goals in the final four games of their series with the Golden Knights, lost three of them and were eliminated.

The Stars have shown they have the depth to score at even strength. In their seven game series victory over the Seattle Kraken, they scored 22 goals at even strength, which is an average of just over three per game.

Will they be able to continue that pace in round three? Joe Pavelski is scoring at will this postseason with eight goals in eight games played. Roope Hintz leads the way for the Stars with 19 points in 13 games. Jason Robertson, Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgeni Dadonov all have nine or more points in 13 games as well giving the Stars tremendous scoring depth up front.

Flipping back to the Golden Knights, they have plenty of scoring depth of their own. Jack Eichel leads the way with 14 points in 11 games so far in the playoffs. Stone is also over a point per game with 12. Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Reilly Smith andWilliam Karlsson all have eight or more points, with scoring coming from each of the team’s top three lines.

Both teams bolster deep blue lines as well. The Golden Knights rely heavily on Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore andAlec Martinez who form a tremendous top three. Nic Hague, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud round out an extremely deep and talented group of two-way defenders who can chip in with plenty of offense while playing fantastic defensive hockey.

The Stars have a nice mix of veteran savvy and youthful exuberance on the back end. Ryan Suter and Colin Miller may not be as effective as they once were, but they provide a steady defensive presence and leadership qualities. Miro Heiskanen is an elite defenseman who could garner Conn Smythe votes if he keeps playing the way he has so far in the postseason. The 23 year old is joined by 21 year old Thomas Harley, who quickly emerged as a key defender and has seven points in 13 playoff games.

Perhaps the biggest question heading into this series is which goaltender can bounce back the quickest? Neither were spectacular in the second round, but getting hot for the next two weeks would lead their team to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Jake Oettinger started every game for the Stars in their series win over the Kraken, but he had a 3.50 GAA and a .877 save percentage in those seven games. Adin Hill took over from Laurent Brossoit and started the final three games of the series after performing well in relief in Game 2 and 3. He allowed seven goals in his first two starts but then shut the door, stopping 38 of 40 shots to help the Knights advance with a Game 6 win.

Will Oettinger return to form and be the best goalie in the series? Or will Hill use his most recent start as a jumping off point for a great series? The answers to those questions could determine who moves on to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Dallas Stars head coach Peter Deboer is in familiar territory in this series. He was hired as the coach of the Golden Knights in January of 2020 and helped them reach the Western Conference Final where they lost to the… Dallas Stars. This rematch now sees Deboer on the other bench, and he will look to get back at his former team for firing him.

Prediction

Two deep teams with no weaknesses that jump out at you will lead to a long series. Both teams have deep blue lines, both teams will get scoring from up and down their lineup, both teams can defend well and play a physical style of hockey.

Also important at this time of year is both teams have remained quite healthy. Everyone is dealing with bumps and bruises but there are no long-term injuries to star players on either lineup right now. That makes the margin for error quite slim on either side.

When it all boils down, goaltending could be the difference, and Oettinger seems to be the more likely choice to have a strong seven game series. That could give the slightest of edges to the Stars in a series that promises to be a long and memorable one.

Prediction: Stars win in seven games.

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Expectations were high for the Senators this season.  After acquiring Alex DeBrincat at the draft and signing Claude Giroux in free agency, a developing forward group got a lot more dangerous.  They added a capable veteran goalie in Cam Talbot as well.  The hope was those moves would help propel them into the playoffs.  Instead, the team struggled considerably early on while dealing with some untimely injuries to key players.  Even after making another big acquisition at the trade deadline in Jakob Chychrun, they ultimately came up short once again, extending their drought to six straight seasons.  While they’re heading in the right direction, Ottawa still has some work to do this summer.

Resolve Ownership Situation

First and foremost, this team needs to get its new owner in place.  Binding bids including a deposit were due to be submitted on Monday, bringing the process one step closer to a resolution.  From there, the winning bidder, likely following another round of negotiations, has to be approved by the Board of Governors and lock in their financing before the purchase can be finalized.

Why does this matter from an on-ice perspective?  It remains to be seen if the new ownership group will want to continue with Pierre Dorion as GM or bring someone else in.  That uncertainty then carries over to D.J. Smith and the rest of the coaching staff; would a new owner and possibly new GM want to clean house?  The sooner the new owner is in place, the better from an organizational certainty standpoint.

Deal With DeBrincat

When the Senators picked up DeBrincat a year ago, they thought they would be getting a quality top-line scorer.  While he didn’t have a poor season, he didn’t exactly live up to expectations either.  After picking up 41 goals in his final season with Chicago, that output dipped to 27 in 2022-23 although he set a career-high in assists with 39 to help him finish fourth on the team in scoring.  That’s not terrible output by any stretch but it would be fair to suggest that they were expecting more from him.

DeBrincat is set to become a restricted free agent this summer for the final time as he’s one year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  He’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility.  On top of that, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rule which is the base salary of the final year of his contract.  While his cap hit the last three years was $6.4MM, his salary this season was $9MM.  That means the Senators must tender him a $9MM qualifying offer, something that Dorion has already they will do if it comes to that point.

So, will it get to that point?  That’s the big question.  Does DeBrincat want to do a long-term deal with Ottawa?  Those are discussions that Dorion will need to have with his representation now to be ready to pivot, if necessary.  If the 25-year-old appears to be leaning toward a one-year deal to hit the open market, it’s quite possible that the Senators will turn around and look to move him.  That’s a move that’s a lot easier to make before the draft in late June while allowing the acquiring team to have time to negotiate a long-term agreement before the qualifying offer comes into play.

If DeBrincat opts to re-sign, there’s a good chance that a one-year deal would simply be him accepting the qualifying offer.  While Ottawa could opt to take him to arbitration, a move that could allow their offer to come in at 85% of the qualifier ($7.65MM), such a move would be antagonistic toward longer-term discussions so they might not want to go that route.  Similarly, if DeBrincat is qualified, there isn’t much of a chance for him to land considerably more than $9MM in an arbitration hearing, lessening the chances of him opting to go that way either.

Meanwhile, a long-term agreement is also likely to come in close to the $9MM mark.  Ottawa’s highest-paid player next season is Tim Stutzle who has an AAV of $8.35MM.  The Sens would certainly like to get DeBrincat in below that mark but it will probably take more than that to get him to agree.  Regardless of which route both sides wind up going, getting this resolved sooner than later needs to be a priority.

Sign A Goalie

When Dorion moved then-unproven prospect Filip Gustavsson to Minnesota for Talbot last offseason, they were hoping that he and Anton Forsberg would form a steady tandem between the pipes.  Instead, Talbot battled injuries throughout the year while Forsberg took a significant step back from his 2021-22 performance.  While Forsberg is still under contract for two more seasons at a $2.75MM AAV, Talbot is a pending unrestricted free agent and has already been told that he won’t be back.  That means there’s a spot to fill in the crease.

Internally, Mads Sogaard is still viewed as Ottawa’s goaltender of the future.  However, the 21-year-old has just 64 career appearances at the AHL level and still has two years of waiver exemption remaining.  While some young goalies can step in full-time in the NHL at that age, teams generally like to slow-play their netminders, allowing them to get frequent starts in the minors.  It would make sense for the Senators to take that approach with Sogaard so penciling him in as Forsberg’s tandem mate shouldn’t be the top plan.

Instead, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dorion look to find another Talbot-like netminder, one that he can sign for a year or two at a price point similar to Forsberg’s.  That would up the floor in terms of production while allowing Sogaard the development time that he could still benefit from.  It’s not a great UFA market for goaltenders but there are several second-stringers that should be available to choose from as things stand.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see them kick the tires on the trade market as well but as long as they feel that Sogaard is their guy in the next couple of years, it’s hard to imagine they’d pay a high price to trade for someone to cover between now and then.

Rebuild The Bottom Six

With Ottawa missing the playoffs despite their upgrades up front, one might think that they had a lack of production from their top players.  But they did have six forwards notch 20 goals while their top five forwards all had at least 62 points.  Not many other teams can say that.  However, they were in the bottom half of the league for goals scored.

The reason for that?  They simply didn’t get much scoring from their bottom six with the exception of Shane Pinto (who was often pressed into top-six duty) or Derick Brassard, who’s a pending UFA.  Mathieu Joseph didn’t score a single goal at even strength all season long, not the type of production they wanted from someone making nearly $3MM.  Parker Kelly was an effective penalty killer but scored one goal in 55 games.  Austin Watson and Dylan Gambrell had just 11 points apiece.  This is one area that can reasonably be improved.

The good news for Dorion is that there are some open roster spots to work with.  Joseph, Kastelic, and Kelly are signed while Pinto will be a restricted free agent.  From there, however, there are openings to fill with Watson, Gambrell, and deadline acquisition Patrick Brown all set to hit the open market while Julien Gauthier, another late-season add, is a restricted free agent but whose arbitration eligibility makes him a non-tender candidate.

Prospect Ridly Greig could fill one of those spots which would certainly give them a boost offensively although he could benefit from more time with AHL Belleville as well.  Recent signing Jiri Smejkal could be in the mix as well but might be it for internal options at this point.  That will leave at least a couple of spots for players currently outside the organization to try to make their mark.  There are often value contracts available for bottom-six forwards closer to training camp so this might be something that the Sens opt to slow-play.

Defensive Decisions

Dorion is going to be busy with his defense as well.  Jake Sanderson will be eligible for a contract extension in July and given that Ottawa has typically moved to sign their core pieces a year early where possible (Brady Tkachuk being the exception), it’s reasonable to think that they’ll do so here.  However, it could be difficult since he has just one NHL year under his belt.  It also remains to be seen if they’ll be able to afford another big-ticket deal on the books.  At a minimum, expect the team to initiate discussions on that front even if those talks don’t lead to the 20-year-old putting pen to paper on a deal.

Meanwhile, decisions need to be made regarding three other young rearguards.  Erik Brannstrom is once again a restricted free agent and this time, he’ll have arbitration eligibility.  When Vegas drafted him, the 23-year-old was regarded as a future offensive threat.  That could still happen but Brannstrom has just four goals in 190 career NHL appearances so far.  Is he still part of their future?

The answer to that question might be dependent on the answer to this next one.  Are Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson ready for full-time roster spots next season?  Both players were at least somewhat highly-touted prospects themselves but have yet to establish themselves at the NHL level.  However, they’re both eligible for waivers next season.  Are the Sens ready to pencil each of them onto the roster?  It’s unlikely they’ll make it back to Belleville so if they’re not comfortable with them being up full-time, one or both of those prospects could become trade candidates.

There’s a further domino effect as well that pertains to Travis Hamonic.  The pending unrestricted free agent has expressed a desire to return but what happens with the three youngsters will dictate whether that’s doable, assuming the two sides can also agree on what type of a dip in pay he’ll likely be heading for after making $3MM the last two seasons.  With free agency roughly six weeks away, they’ll need to make calls on these players fairly soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Conference Finals coverage with the Eastern Conference matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers.

The Southeast Division reigns supreme, just as we all thought.

After more than 25 years, these former divisional rivals will square up in their first-ever playoff matchup against each other, with higher stakes than anyone expected. Both teams are knocking on the door of their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in decades after building up to this moment for years.

Both teams have also overcome some long odds to get here but under different circumstances. Some had written off the Hurricanes entering their Second Round series against the New Jersey Devils, with injuries to three of their best scorers hampering their chances against a Devils team that had overcome a 2-0 series deficit against Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers.

Needless to say, it didn’t matter. The Hurricanes advanced thanks to a Game 5 overtime winner from Jesper Fast, a testament to the depth that’s stepped up and gotten them this far.

The Panthers, on the other hand, finished 17th in the NHL during the regular season and rattled off seven-game and five-game series wins against two of the best teams in the league. It’s thanks largely in part to netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s overcome playoff demons past and is, out of nowhere, earning his keep as a $10MM goalie.

Can Florida’s Cinderella run continue and get them back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history?

Regular Season Performance

Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 9, 2022: Carolina 0, Florida 3
December 30, 2022: Florida 0, Carolina 4
April 13, 2023: Carolina 6, Florida 4

Carolina takes season series 2-1-0

Team Storylines

The question for Carolina is simple: can their depth, namely Fast, Jordan Martinook, and Stefan Noesen, keep showing up?

Their job should be made easier, as Teuvo Teräväinen is expected to return to the team after missing most of the playoffs with a broken hand. But Martinook’s 10 points in 11 games and Fast’s eight points in 11 games are near the team lead and ahead of other expected leading scorers like Martin Necas.

That’ll be their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final against a Florida team loaded with more consistently potent names, like Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe, in their top six. It’ll also be tough to contend with the fact that Florida’s three leading goal-scorers among forwards in the playoffs (Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart) are spread out on three different lines.

Both teams are set in the crease. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta have played very well for Carolina, but Andersen’s pulled ahead with a 5-0 record and .931 save percentage after Raanta exited the lineup due to illness. Bobrovsky may have surpassed Tkachuk in Panthers Conn Smythe candidates after his performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, limiting the Toronto attack to two goals in each game.

There are plenty of personnel storylines to go around in this series as well. Not only will it feature all three active Staal brothers in the NHL, but it also features a showdown between Carolina’s Cup-winning captain Rod Brind’Amour and former teammate Eric Staal, who now attempts to upset his former coach and help boost Florida into the Final.

Prediction

Carolina is the more experienced and better-coached team in this series. They’ve overcome multiple question marks after another triple-digit point total in the regular season to get where they are now.

They’ve had plenty of tough lessons to learn from past mistakes, but so have the Panthers after a handful of recent early eliminations. They’re also both even in most matchup categories and boast similarly aggressive styles of play.

It makes this series one of the hardest to predict of the entire postseason. Both teams have knocked off 110+ point opponents with relative ease. Where Carolina pulls away is behind the bench, however, and it could be the deciding factor in what should be a lengthy series.

Prediction: Hurricanes win in seven games.

Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Vancouver.

After the team showed considerable improvement late in 2021-22 under Bruce Boudreau, there was hope that the Canucks could get back into the playoff picture.  Instead, things went off the rails quickly with a long-speculated coaching change dominating the headlines for an uncomfortable amount of time.  While there was improvement following the change that saw Rick Tocchet take over, they still came up short.  GM Patrik Allvin has his work cut out for him this summer if he wants to get Vancouver back into the playoff picture.

Create Cap Space

If Allvin and the Canucks are going to be able to do anything in terms of improving this franchise this summer, they need money to do so.  At the moment, they are projected to be over the cap next season, per CapFriendly, with multiple players still to re-sign.  That’s not ideal, to put it lightly.

There could be some help through LTIR.  Tanner Pearson’s playing future appears to be in serious question after recovery from his hand injury hasn’t gone anywhere near as well as planned.  If he misses all of next season, his $3.25MM would then land on LTIR.  Then there’s Tucker Poolman, who has dealt with lingering concussion trouble for the last couple of seasons and got into just three games this year.  If those symptoms persist, his $2.5MM could land on there as well.  Those two placements would at least give them enough cap space to fill out a full roster but still not make any material improvements.

Winger Brock Boeser has been in trade speculation for more than a year now and even though he has stated that his desire is to remain in Vancouver, that’s unlikely to change with a $6.65MM AAV for two more years.  Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli recently reported (video link) that the team is actively trying to move Conor Garland who carries a $4.95MM cap charge for three more seasons.  While he’s a quality forward, the remaining term on that deal will hurt his value.  Moving one of them would clear up some money plus a full-time spot for Nils Hoglander but Vancouver will be hard-pressed to get strong value in a return with how tight many teams are cap-wise.

Defensively, Tyler Myers and his $6MM price tag is one that could be on the chopping block.  Notably, the bulk of his deal is paid out in a signing bonus during training camp and it stands to reason that he’d have more value then than he would today.  Of course, that doesn’t help in terms of creating space for early-summer spending but it’s another avenue they could potentially pursue.

There are holes on this roster to be filled.  But to fill them, they need cap space.  To get that money, they’re going to have to move out a player of some significance, thereby creating another hole to fill.  That’s going to be a tough needle to thread.

Work On Pettersson Extension

While some players underachieved offensively under Boudreau, that wasn’t the case for Elias Pettersson who was off to a strong start before the coaching change, notching 19 goals and 35 assists in 44 games.  There might have been some concern that a coach that was interested in restoring some structure to Vancouver’s game might cut down Pettersson’s numbers.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, he was even more productive in the second half, tallying 20 goals and 28 helpers in 36 games, allowing him to reach the 100-point mark for the first time in his career.  He was one of just 11 players league-wide to accomplish the feat.  In short, he has become a legitimate top-line center.

In 2021, on the heels of an injury-plagued platform year, the two sides eventually agreed on a three-year bridge deal, one that carried a $7.35MM AAV while being heavily backloaded.  The salary structure is notable as the relatively new qualifying offer rule applies to it; he’s owed the lower of 120% of the AAV or $10.25MM, the 2023-24 salary.  120% of the cap charge is $8.82MM and if you’re looking for a starting point for negotiations, there it is.

Realistically, the price tag is going to come in well above that, especially based on recent center signings including Islanders pivot Mathew Barzal who checks in at $9.15MM despite only passing the 65-point mark once in his career.  It’s quite possible that a long-term agreement ultimately eclipses the $10MM mark.

There’s a case to be made that Vancouver should wait until next year to see if Pettersson’s production is repeatable.  However, the salary cap is expected to have a sharper increase in 2024 and with comparables often being based on the percentage of the cap it takes up, that could drive the asking price upward at that point along with his arbitration rights.  But, there’s value in taking care of your franchise players quickly and having early certainty about what he’ll cost moving forward can only help Allvin as he looks to reshape their cap picture.  Accordingly, expect them to take a run at extending Pettersson when he’s eligible to sign a new deal in July.

Look Into Miller Move

The seven-year, $56MM contract extension that J.T. Miller signed back in September was supposed to take his name out of the rumor mill.  However, with the Canucks struggling considerably out of the gate, that wasn’t the case as there was considerable speculation that he could be moved prior to the trade deadline.  While that didn’t happen, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name come up once again, especially if they fail to find a suitable cap-clearing trade for one of their other pieces.

However, it’s important to note that there is a deadline for this to happen.  Included in the extension is a full no-move clause which kicks in on July 1st.  Vancouver could have allowed that NMC to roll over in his set-to-expire deal but opted not to.  While it’s not impossible to move a player with trade protection, the options are certainly more plentiful when the player doesn’t have any form of trade restrictions.

While Miller wasn’t able to equal his 99-point output from a year ago, the 30-year-old still had a productive campaign, notching 32 goals while picking up 82 points in 81 games.  Add that to a career-best 55% success rate at the faceoff dot and you have a player that is producing at a level worthy of the $8MM AAV.  As a result, expect to see his name surface in trade speculation leading up to the draft as there should be some interest in him, especially with a free agent market that’s lacking in quality middlemen.

Defensive Decisions

Vancouver has a couple of decisions to make with their pending restricted free agent blueliners.  Both Ethan Bear and Travis Dermott are arbitration-eligible this summer with arbitration eligibility.  Both of them have shown flashes at times but neither of them is a guarantee to be tendered.

Let’s start with Bear, a player who has seemingly been on tenuous footing in recent years in Edmonton, Carolina, and now Vancouver.  The Canucks picked him up in an early-season trade and he helped to stabilize an injury-riddled back end.  However, the 25-year-old is best utilized in a limited role and a $2.2MM qualifying offer is on the pricey side for someone in that role, not to mention the granting of arbitration rights that the offer entails.  Given their cap situation, can they afford that offer and the risk of a hearing?  Bear has expressed confidence that he will get something done but it will be interesting to see if he winds up with a deal before the qualifying offer deadline to take the threat of a hearing off the table.

As for Dermott, he showed some upside in the past with Toronto but that hasn’t carried over to his time with Vancouver.  Lingering concussion symptoms resulted in multiple IR stints and he played in just 11 games this season.  Dermott was the first player Allvin acquired after being named GM so it’s clear he thinks Dermott can help this team.  But with a $1.75MM qualifier and arbitration rights, that seems too pricey for them.  That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Canucks try to work out a one-year deal worth less than that amount, allowing them to give the 26-year-old one more chance.

Vancouver also has a decision to make on pending UFA blueliner Kyle Burroughs.  The 27-year-old played in a career-best 48 games this season, picking up five points and 165 hits on the third pairing.  He fits in a depth role but it’s possible that his fate is tied to Bear or Dermott’s as they might not be able to keep all of them around.  As a result, Burroughs might have to wait a while to see if he’ll be staying with his hometown team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Big Hype Prospects: Clarke, Rinzel, Garand, Heineman, Ducks Trio

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Welcome to PHR’s Big Hype Prospects series. Like the MLB Trade Rumors series of the same name, we’re taking a look at the performances of top prospects from across the hockey world. We’ll look at drafted prospects who are rising, others who are struggling, and prospects for the upcoming draft who are notable.

Seven Big Hype Prospects

Graeme Clarke, RW, New Jersey Devils (Utica Comets, AHL)
68 GP 25G 33A 58pts (regular season) 6 GP 2G 4A 6pts (playoffs)

An example of a player whose development was slowed down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2019 third-round pick Clarke had a true breakout season this year for the AHL’s Utica Comets.

Spending most of the season as an age-21 player in a league with quite a few grizzled veterans, Clarke became the Comets’ go-to offensive option, and saw his production spike up as a result.

Over the past two campaigns, Clarke totaled 42 points in 83 games, a fine total but perhaps not the dominating number the Devils might have hoped to see.

This season, though, Clarke led Utica in scoring and helped them reach the Calder Cup playoffs, where they swept the Laval Rocket in the best-of-three opening-round series.

His screen on Rocket netminder Cayden Primeau paved the way for Reilly Walsh’s stunning last-second tying goal in the clinching game of that series. While 2020 seventh-overall pick Alexander Holtz was listed higher in the lineup when healthy and available to Utica head coach Kevin Dineen, Clarke was the Comets’ lasting offensive centerpiece.

Despite his dramatic improvements in the AHL, the now-22-year-old Clarke didn’t get a call-up to the NHL, and is still yet to make his NHL debut. Look for that to change next season. While Clarke may not end up the same offensive generator for the Devils as he is in Utica, this season proved how adaptable his offensive approach was to the professional game, where time and space with the puck is limited and scoring chances are harder to come by.

Assuming he’s able to win a job in training camp and continue his upward trajectory, Clarke could provide serious value to the Devils next season at his $850k cap hit. Veteran forwards Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar, and Miles Wood are set to hit free agency in the summer, and significant pay raises for Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier are likely to come. As a result, if Clarke is able to establish himself as an NHLer next season the Devils stand to benefit greatly from his low cap hit.

Sam Rinzel, RHD, Chicago Blackhawks (Waterloo Black Hawks, USHL)
58 GP 9G 27A 36pts (regular season) 3 GP 1G 2A 3pts (playoffs)

As a late June birthdate, it wasn’t a surprise to see Rinzel, a 2021 first-round pick, spend another year in the USHL, even if it is relatively uncommon for players drafted that high to do so. Blackhawks fans could not be blamed for hoping to see the toolsy Rinzel dominate that level of competition before heading to the University of Minnesota this coming fall.

They’d have to be at least slightly disappointed, though, as Rinzel’s performance this season in the USHL, while totally acceptable, could not be characterized in any way as dominant. The rangy six-foot-four blueliner was tied for second on his team in scoring with 36 points in 58 games, behind Ben Robertson, who is ranked 193rd among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting for this summer’s NHL draft, and tied with undrafted overager Aaron Pionk.

Rinzel being drafted so high was never about his production, of course, it was all about the tantalizing tools the defenseman offers. Those tools are still present in his game, and the “wow” factor that the Blackhawks were so enamored with is often evident in his play. But at a certain point, one would hope that Rinzel’s tools would translate into more dominant play, that the frequent flashes of greatness would materialize into something more tangible, such as outstanding production.

As one of the more divisive first-round picks of last year’s draft (Rinzel was ranked as high as 28th, by McKeen’s hockey, and as low as 62nd, by FCHockey) the hope would be that Rinzel would use his first season as a Blackhawks prospect to silence all his doubters and place himself on extremely strong footing heading into his debut season of college hockey. That didn’t exactly happen, but he nonetheless reminded observers of the elite potential he possesses.

It’ll likely be an extended development process with Rinzel, which is fine given the extended rebuild the Blackhawks have embarked on. If nothing else, Rinzel will be among the first-year players to watch in college hockey next season.

Dylan Garand, G, New York Rangers (Hartford Wolf Pack, AHL)
32 GP 13-14-3 .894 SV% 3.01 GAA (regular season) 8 GP 5-3 .935 SV% 1.76 GAA (playoffs)

Something that can go a bit under-appreciated in the areas of prospect development is just how difficult the transition between being a goaltender at the junior hockey level and the professional level can be. Some netminders make it look easy, of course, such as Calgary Flames prospect Dustin Wolf, who has torn the AHL apart across two seasons and recently was named the league’s MVP.

Others can face significant struggles often seeing the stardom they experienced at earlier levels dissipate quickly, as Flames prospect Tyler Parsons did years ago, going from the top save percentage in the OHL in 2016-17 to a career .888 save percentage in the AHL.

At many times during his rookie season in the AHL, it looked as though Garand, the Rangers’ top goalie prospect, was going to be among the strugglers. Last season’s CHL Goalie of the Year posted a grisly .894 save percentage this season, a good measure below organizational number-three netminder Louis Domingue, a veteran who cruised to a .911 save percentage despite Hartford enduring an up-and-down regular season.

There were games where he simply looked overmatched by the heightened level of competition the AHL presents and the speed of the game when it gets played entirely by grown professionals. But at times he did shine, such as in his final three regular-season starts, when he saved a combined 89 out of 94 shots. It’s Garand’s playoff performance, though, that has truly injected some life into an otherwise disappointing rookie AHL season.

Garand let in just two goals on 45 shots in Hartford’s opening-round sweep against last season’s Eastern Conference champions, the Springfield Thunderbirds, and then he and the Wolf Pack stunned the East’s top-seeded Providence Bruins with a Game One shutout and a 29-saves-on-3o-shots performance in Game Two. Garand’s 32-save shutout in Game Four eliminated Providence, and while Hartford has taken a step back as a whole against the Hershey Bears and are now on the brink of elimination, Garand’s play has undoubtedly been a bright spot.

The Rangers are, of course, set in goal moving forward with last season’s Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin still just 27 years old arguably the team’s best player. But if Garand, who turns 21 next month, can continue his playoff performance into next year’s regular season, he could quickly push himself into the NHL conversation. If that ends up being the case, it’s possible that New York could have another talented number-two netminder on their hands.

The Rangers have a more extensive recent history of exporting their backup netminders across the league than other franchises, with names such as Cam Talbot, Antti Raanta, and Alexandar Georgiev moving on to starting roles with other teams after their Rangers tenures. If his performance in the CHL and recently the Calder Cup playoffs is any indication, Garand could very well end up the next name on that list by the time he reaches a similar age.

Emil Heineman, LW, Montreal Canadiens (Laval Rocket, AHL and Leksands IF, SHL)
11 GP 7G 2A 9pts (regular season, AHL) 2 GP 0G 0pts (playoffs, AHL) 35 GP 8G 7A 15pts (regular season, SHL)

Just looking at Heineman’s box score numbers from his three seasons as a regular with Leksands IF in the SHL, it would look as though Heineman has plateaued in his development. After all, he scored 13 points in 2020-21 and 15 in 2022-23, with slightly improved points-per-game marks each season. Combined with the fact that Heineman has already been traded twice since being selected in the second round of the 2020 draft, it might look like Heineman’s stock is in a bit of a shaky place.

In the eleven regular-season games he played for the Laval Rocket after coming over from Sweden, Heineman proved he was more than just a throw-in name from two relatively high-profile trades. While he slowed down a little bit in his final games including the playoffs, Heineman scored an impressive seven goals and two assists in his first eight games in the AHL.

His contributions came at a time when Laval desperately needed a boost to get into the Calder Cup playoffs, and the argument could be made that it’s the immediate contributions Heineman gave them that put Laval into the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

There’s an argument to be made that the positive traits of Heineman’s profile, namely his motor, physicality, and intensity, play better on smaller North American ice surfaces. The winger seemed to agree, telling The Athletic last month: “I like the small rink, I can use my shot a lot more.” (subscription link)

With Jesse Ylonen, a top-six staple in Laval over the last two seasons, set to become waiver-eligible for the first time next year and expected to graduate to NHL duty with Montreal, it’s likely that Heineman will be counted on to fill the offensive void Ylonen leaves. And if he can continue his hot start to his AHL career into full-time work next fall, a call to Martin St. Louis’ squad could come sooner rather than later for Heineman.

LHD Pavel Mintyukov, LHD Olen Zellweger, RHD Tristan Luneau, Anaheim Ducks (Ottawa 67s, Kamloops Blazers, Gatineau Olympiques, respectively)
80 GP 24G 73A 97pts (Mintyukov), 69 GP 43G 66A 109pts (Zellweger), 78 GP 22G 78A 110pts (Luneau)

A few days ago, the Anaheim Ducks made NHL history by becoming the first team to have prospects in each of the three Canadian Hockey Leagues (QMJHL, OHL, WHL) named their league’s defenseman of the year. Mintyukov, last year’s 2022 10th-overall pick, was given the honor by the OHL, while Zellweger and Luneau, second-round picks in back-to-back years, were given the honor by the WHL and QMJHL, respectively.

These awards cap off seasons that featured almost stunning offensive production for each player. In Mintyukov’s case, this season was an opportunity for him to move from Saginaw, a team he led in scoring in his draft season, to an Ottawa 67’s team that came in first in the OHL’s regular season, going 52-12-5. The six-foot-three blueliner has a chance to make the NHL with Anaheim next fall, and could be an instant-impact contributor for the franchise.

For Zellweger, this season was further evidence of how talented he is as a generator of offense from the back end. A dynamic skater, Zellweger’s production reached another gear after a trade to the Blazers, where he joined with high-flying Dallas Stars prospect Logan Stankoven. Together, they combined for nearly 60 points in just 14 (!) playoff games, though that effort was still not enough to get them past the Seattle Thunderbirds, a team rostering five NHL first-round picks.

Moving on to Luneau, his 2022-23 season was the dominant campaign that many saw him as due for after he was drafted first overall at the 2020 QMJHL entry draft. Luneau led the Olympiques to the QMJHL’s fourth-best record and his 17 points in 13 playoff games helped them reach the playoff semifinals, where they were swept by the top-seeded Quebec Ramparts. (who yesterday lost the first game of their entire playoff run)

Luneau’s season proved that the still possesses the sky-high potential he flashed earlier in his minor hockey career, and seeing as he won’t turn 20 until 2024, he’ll have the chance to dominate the QMJHL for another season.

All three players’ trophy wins represent a significant achievement for the Ducks’ scouting staff. They have identified some extremely talented players and spent some premium resources to get them, and now as a result Anaheim has arguably the most promising pipeline of defense prospects in the entire NHL.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at St. Louis.

It would be fair to say that the 2022-23 season didn’t go as planned for St. Louis.  A veteran-laden squad, there was an expectation that they’d be squarely in the playoff mix.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, St. Louis was one of the bigger sellers leading up to the trade deadline before going and doing some of their summer shopping early with the acquisitions of Jakub Vrana and Kasperi Kapanen.  While those pickups suggest they aren’t intending to bottom out next season, they’ll have some work to do this offseason to try to move back up in the standings.

Round Out Coaching Staff

Following a disappointing season like this one, some had wondered if there would be big changes behind the bench.  That wasn’t the case as Craig Berube remains as head coach but he’s in need of a pair of assistants as Craig MacTavish and Mike Van Ryn were both dismissed the day after the season.  MacTavish had been brought in to replace Jim Montgomery (who became the bench boss in Boston) while van Ryn had been on the staff for the past five seasons.

MacTavish was responsible for the penalty kill early on in the season before Van Ryn, who also ran the defense, took over.  In the end, the penalty kill had a success rate of just 72.4%, good for 30th in the league.  The Blues could opt to promote from within to fill those vacancies with AHL Springfield head coach Drew Bannister and associate coach Daniel Tkaczuk being the top options to move up.  Otherwise, they’ll look outside the organization to round out their staff.  This one isn’t a very high priority but it’s something GM Doug Armstrong will have to work on in the coming weeks.

Move Scandella

The optics for Marco Scandella’s time in St. Louis haven’t been great.  The Blues acquired him from Montreal back in 2020 for a second-round pick and a conditional fourth-rounder.  On the surface, that seems fine but the Canadiens had acquired him for a fourth-rounder alone just six weeks earlier.  Yes, salary retention was a factor but it seemed like a high price to pay nonetheless.  The four-year, $13.1MM extension he signed less than two months later also seemed on the high side.  That deal has one season left heading into 2023-24 and it’s going to be a problematic one.

It isn’t that Scandella is a particularly poor defender.  He’s a bit more of an older-fashioned rearguard who doesn’t jump into the play; he’s a stay-at-home player.  Those aren’t in high demand anymore but he’s a situational player that can play on the penalty kill.  There’s still a use for that type of player, just not at $3.275MM.  With St. Louis having minimal cap space (less than $7MM per CapFriendly), that’s a premium for a sixth defender that they can no longer afford.

Of course, there aren’t many other teams that can afford that premium either.  As a result, the Blues will have to incentivize a team to trade for him, further adding to those poor optics.  Alternatively, they may have to look into buying out the final year of his contract.  Such a move would save them $2.75MM next season but add $1MM to the books in 2024-25.  In theory, they could waive Scandella and send him down in October which would free up $1.15MM in room but most of that would have to go towards a replacement body, making that scenario not a great one either.  Frankly, none of them are ideal but if Armstrong needs some extra flexibility this summer, this is their best chance to get it and a move involving Scandella will need to be made.

Add Forward Help

One of the things that St. Louis will need cap space for is to add help offensively.  The team parted with long-time veterans Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly prior to the trade deadline and while both players were potentially on their way out the door anyway as free agents, they didn’t exactly acquire impact pieces in those swaps, instead opting for futures-based returns.  They were a mid-pack scoring team this season and with those two gone (plus Ivan Barbashev), there are some holes to fill offensively.  They can hope for bounce-back years for Vrana and Kapanen but those two alone aren’t going to fill the void.

It’s not a great free agent market this summer for teams looking to add impact pieces up front but St. Louis does have three first-round picks at their disposal after acquiring top-rounders in both the Tarasenko and O’Reilly swaps.  The period leading up to the draft in June could therefore be an ideal opportunity for them to acquire a top-six piece that’s either signed or under team control for several more years that can help replace the production from the veterans that were moved out.

Additionally, the Blues could also stand to add some help down the middle.  They experimented with Pavel Buchnevich and Kapanen playing at center down the stretch to mixed results.  It’s one thing to try these things when you’re just playing out the stretch but it’s unlikely that they view those two as full-season options at the position.  Even among bottom-six options, those players would take up the bulk of the remaining cap space that currently exists.

Shop More Defense

Moving out Scandella fixes a short-term problem but St. Louis still has a particularly pricey back end.  Their top-four defenders (Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy) are all signed through at least 2025-26 at a combined cap hit of $23.5MM.  That’s a lot of money, especially when you add in a minimum of three other blueliners to round out the roster.  While those four are certainly capable players, it would be fair to suggest that they’re not exactly getting the best bang for their buck.

On top of that, the Blues do have some promising youngsters that are on the cusp.  Scott Perunovich dealt with injuries for most of the season but should be ready to be a regular next season.  Tyler Tucker didn’t look out of place in his first taste of NHL action either and could be ready to be a full-timer on the roster a year from now.  Finding room for them would be ideal, giving St. Louis another reason to explore a swap.

The easiest of the four to move is likely Leddy.  It’s unlikely that they’ll want to move Faulk, Parayko’s term remaining on his deal hurts his value, and Krug is coming off a year to forget which would make it very difficult to move him for fair value.  Leddy is the one on the shortest deal (through 2025-26) at the lowest cost ($4MM) which would make him the logical choice if Armstrong decides to try to funnel more money into his forward group to tackle the needs up front.  There might be a short-term dip while Perunovich and/or Tucker get accustomed to a full-time spot but in the end, such an approach might be better for them in the long run.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

Many NHL fans will remember the dynastic Detroit Red Wings teams that took home four Stanley Cups between 1997-2008. Unfortunately, those days are behind America’s most winningest hockey franchise, and the likes of Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kris Draper, and Niklas Kronwall, have all transitioned from the ice to the front office. With the Red Wings finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for their strenuous rebuild, we’ll look at some boxes they should check this offseason. 

Find Time For Prospects

One of the most out-of-nowhere trades from this year’s deadline was the Red Wings shipping promising defenseman Filip Hronek to the Vancouver Canucks for the New York Islander’s first-round pick in this year’s draft. Arguably the team’s top defenseman at the time of the trade, finding time for prospects with a higher potential than Hronek is an intelligent move for Detroit to continue to make. 

To start, we’ll walk through a comparison of some of the top five forward selections from 2017-2021. In Group A, we have Tim Stutzle, Matthew Beniers, Nico Hischier, Brady Tkachuk, and Elias Pettersson. In Group B, we’ll compare Alexis Lafreniere, Barrett Hayton, Andrei Svechnikov, Kaapo Kakko, and Quinton Byfield. The averages for Group A: 273 GP, 225 P, 0.83 PPG, and 18:15 ATOI. For Group B: 215 GP, 112 P, 0.52 PPG, 15:02 ATOI. 

Although there is a major learning curve transitioning to the professional level, younger players are benefiting immensely from averaging more time on ice. With high-end prospects such as Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper, Albert Johansson, and William Wallinder right on the cusp, it is time for the Red Wings to swing more trades (much like they did with Hronek) to find adequate ice time to lead to the maximum growth for these players. 

Two players that immediately come to mind that the Red Wings should be seeking to move on from would be forwards Joe Veleno and Filip Zadina. Both players were drafted in the first round of the 2018 NHL draft, and have yet to establish much on-ice value for Detroit up to this point. With more notable prospects coming up the pipeline, and these two players likely still maintaining some value due to their young age and draft selection, the Red Wings should be looking to deal both of them this summer.

Establish Consistent Scoring

Since the 2019-20 season, Detroit has had a massive problem putting the puck in the net. The team has yet to finish outside the bottom ten in GF/G since the 2018-19 season. Luckily for Detroit, there should be players outside the organization that should help them improve in this category. 

In this year’s upcoming free agency period, the high-end scoring talent has already been thinned out, with the likes of David Pastrnak, Joe Pavelski, Andrei Kuzmenko, and Bo Horvat having already signed extensions. Of the remaining players, only Alex Killorn, Patrick Kane, Max Domi, J.T. Compher, and Vladimir Tarasenko would present real opportunities for Detroit. However, with the average age of the team only getting younger with prospect graduation, none of these players seem to fit the Red Wings’ timeline. 

Enter the trade market. Looking ahead at this offseason’s potential trade options, there are three players that seem to stand out as viable solutions to Detroit’s goal-scoring issues. Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames, Alex DeBrincat from the Ottawa Senators, and Brock Boeser from the Canucks. 

All three players fit into the Red Wings’ timeline, they have all shown an ability to score goals, and they all find themselves in precarious situations on their current teams. The Flames and Canucks are headed toward serious shakeups this offseason, and DeBrincat was very noncommittal on signing a contract extension in Ottawa. 

If any of these players become available, it would make sense for Detroit to swing a big trade to bring one of them in. 

Goaltending Upgrades

After acquiring goaltender Ville Husso from the St.Louis Blues after a brilliant 2021-22 season, the Red Wings may have thought their goaltending issues were finally shored up for the time being. Unfortunately, the move did not pan out as they may have hoped. 

This season, all of Detroit’s three goalies, Husso as well as Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg, all held a Quality Start Percentage less than 50% and produced a Goals Saved Above Average of -13.5, -4.4, and -8.2, respectively. In more topical statistics, none of their goaltenders produced a GAA of 3.00 or less, and none were able to sport a SV% of .900 or more.

After trading up in the 2021 draft to select goaltender Sebastian Cossa at 15th overall, it is evident that he will be the goaltender of the future in Detroit, and is likely sitting above another goaltending prospect, Carter Gylander, in their prospect depth chart. 

For the time being, with this year’s free agent market for goaltenders sporting the likes of Joonas Korpisalo, Antti Raanta, Semyon Varlamov, and Adin Hill, Detroit must once again be on the lookout for a better stop-gap until Cossa is ready to make the jump to professional hockey. 

Name An AHL Head Coach

As the Red Wings are prepared for an influx of talent to the minor league level, Yzerman highlighted the need for a winning culture when it comes to prospect development. In mid-April, after a last-place finish in the AHL’s Central Division, the Grand Rapids Griffins announced they would not be renewing the contract of head coach Ben Simon.

One of the top coaching candidates that comes to mind is Norm Bazin, the current head coach of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell of the Hockey East conference. Since taking over as head coach for the 2011-12 season, Bazin has accrued a 254-145-39 record, as well as one Frozen Four appearance in 2012-13, losing to the eventual champion Yale University.

With a track record of success, and a clear ability to coach younger players, Bazin would be a prime candidate to take over behind the bench for the Griffins next season. If the team is unable to convince Bazin to coach in Grand Rapids, Yzerman, and Assistant General Manager Shawn Horcoff will have plenty of work to do this summer in finding the best candidate.

An Overview Of NHL Head Coaching Candidates

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With the NHL Draft Lottery behind us and the second round fully underway, it is an appropriate time to provide an overview of the current crop of candidates for the NHL’s head coaching vacancies. The Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, and Washington Capitals are all without head coaches.

These vacancies each present their own challenges and opportunities. Washington, New York, and Calgary are teams with talented veteran cores and the desire to compete immediately, while Columbus and Anaheim are clubs with top 2023 draft picks and some exciting young players. With an eye to these vacancies and any vacancies still to come, here’s a look at the current crop of NHL head coaching candidates:

The Veteran Coaches

Gerard Gallant (Former New York Rangers head coach)

Perhaps best known for guiding the “misfit” expansion-year Vegas Golden Knights to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final, Gallant finds himself again on the open market after a two-season stint with the Rangers.

The positive aspects of Gallant’s resume are clear: he’s a three-time Jack Adams trophy nominee and one-time winner, a Memorial Cup champion, and has compiled a career record of 369-262-70.

But it’s notable that Gallant has not finished a third season behind the bench of any of his stops as an NHL head coach, leading to questions over whether he is the right coach for a team looking for someone to lead a long-term project.

He’s undoubtedly one of the most qualified names on the market, but there are, as with any head coaching candidate, some question marks in his profile.

Peter Laviolette (Former Washington Capitals head coach)

Like Gallant, Laviolette is an experienced head coach with an established track record of leading winning teams. Laviolette has led two franchises to the Stanley Cup final since winning it all with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and has won the eighth-most games of any head coach in NHL history. Since the beginning of his tenure with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2009-10, Laviolette’s teams have missed the playoffs just twice. If a team wants a capable, experienced hand to stabilize their franchise and guide them to winning, Laviolette would be an ideal candidate.

But it’s also worth noting that while Laviolette has won a lot of games, playoff success has eluded his teams in recent years. He was hired by the Capitals to bring Washington the playoff success their former coach Todd Reirden couldn’t manage, but ended his time with the Capitals having lost both playoff series they competed in. While his standout resume speaks for itself, Laviolette’s teams have won one playoff series in the last half-decade, which is definitely something for teams to consider.

Bruce Boudreau (Former Vancouver Canucks head coach)

While Boudreau’s tenure as the head coach of the Canucks ultimately ended in disappointment, the 2008 Jack Adams Award winner remains among the most accomplished head coaches still active in coaching today. Boudreau’s .626 career points percentage ranks second in NHL history among head coaches with over a decade of NHL coaching experience, behind only two-time Stanley Cup champion Jon Cooper.

Boudreau’s track record of consistent regular-season success sets him apart. But while he is an AHL and ECHL champion, his teams in the NHL have largely failed to make noise in the playoffs, save for a run to the Western Conference Final with the Anaheim Ducks in 2015. If a club wants to make the playoffs, though, installing Boudreau behind their bench could be the way to go.

Darryl Sutter (Former Calgary Flames head coach)

Among the names on this list, Sutter has the the most championship experience with two Stanley Cup championships on his resume. He has the ninth-most wins of any head coach in NHL history, but after leading his teams to the playoffs in 13 of 14 seasons behind an NHL bench, Sutter’s teams have failed to qualify for the postseason in four of his last six campaigns as an NHL head coach.

The 2022 Jack Adams Award winner is a highly demanding coach who can help win a lot of games, but also can have a corrosive effect on a team’s off-ice environment, as Sportsnet’s Eric Francis reported happened late in his second tour with the Flames.

As Francis wrote: “No coach prepares players as well as Sutter, few work a bench as brilliantly as he does,” but “his tear-em-down, build-em-back-up approach sucked the love of the game out of many players, including franchise cornerstones Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri.”

A team looking to compete immediately with their next head coach would be foolish to not consider Sutter for their vacancy, though they would have to weigh the very real positives and negatives of his resume and whether his style is compatible with modern NHL players.

Claude Julien (Former Montreal Canadiens head coach)

The 2011 Stanly Cup champion has taken on international duties for Hockey Canada as he awaits his next head coaching job. He’ll be behind the bench for the Canadians at the upcoming IIHF World Championships in Riga and Tampere, and very well could be behind an NHL bench after that.

Julien helped steward some poor Canadiens teams to respectability and will always be beloved in Boston for winning the Bruins their first championship since the days of Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito. But he also has not been behind the bench of a team winning a playoff series since 2014, and more and more teams could be opting for younger head coaches. He’s a safe choice for a team looking for a widely-respected bench boss, but maybe not the most exciting candidate given some of the other available names.

The Rising Stars

Andrew Brunette (New Jersey Devils assistant coach)

The Florida Panthers passed on Brunette, a 2022 Jack Adams Award nominee, after his team was swept in the second round by the Tampa Bay Lightning. Brunette was then hired by the New Jersey Devils in a move many believed to be succession planning for the eventual departure of head coach Lindy Ruff, only Ruff led the Devils on an extraordinary year that saw them exit their rebuild and defeat their arch-rival New York Rangers in the first round of the playoffs.

His work on Ruff’s staff this season is another feather in his cap as a head coaching candidate, and if the Devils are committed to Ruff as their leader moving forward, it’s possible another team poaches Ruff with the hope that he can help lead a third consecutive strong season behind an NHL bench.

Ryan Warsofsky (San Jose Sharks assistant coach)

While Warsofsky, 35, has just five seasons of head coaching experience on his record he’s among the most promising candidates on the market due to how successful he’s been in recent seasons. After two seasons behind the bench in the ECHL for the South Carolina Stingrays that included a run to the Kelly Cup Final, Warsofsky took the reins of the Carolina Hurricanes’ AHL affiliate, leading the Charlotte Checkers to a winning season and the Chicago Wolves to a 71-25-13 record across two seasons that included a Calder Cup championship. He was also a top assistant for the Checkers during their Calder Cup championship run in 2019.

This past season was his first behind an NHL bench, as Warsofsky took a role as an assistant on David Quinn’s San Jose Sharks staff. While the Sharks as a whole had a miserable season, Warsofsky’s work running the team’s penalty kill drew plaudits as the unit finished as the eighth-best in the NHL.

Spencer Carbery (Toronto Maple Leafs assistant coach)

Like Warsofsky, Carbery is currently on his first opportunity to coach behind an NHL bench. He’s on head coach Sheldon Keefe’s Toronto Maple Leafs staff, helping the team to impressive regular-season records as well as a long-awaited playoff series victory. Before taking the job in Toronto, Carbery was the head coach for the Hershey Bears in the AHL, going 104-50-17 across three seasons.

Carbery doesn’t have championship experience yet like some of the other names on this list, although he did come close with the ECHL’s Stingrays in 2015, just as Warsofsky did two years later with the same club.

Mike Vellucci (Pittsburgh Penguins assistant coach)

The longtime head coach and general manager of the Plymouth Whalers, a now-relocated OHL team, Vellucci has spent the last three seasons as an assistant on head coach Mike Sullivan’s Pittsburgh Penguins staff. He has some championship experience, winning an OHL title in Plymouth in 2007, as well as with the Charlotte Checkers in the AHL and the Detroit Compuware Ambassadors in the NAHL. Vellucci’s best work was likely in 2019 with the Checkers, as that team tore through the AHL en route to a Calder Cup.

He hasn’t yet gotten a shot as an NHL head coach yet, but he was a head coach across different levels every year from 1995-2020. Could this hiring cycle be when he gets his chance?

Mitch Love (Calgary Wranglers head coach)

While Vellucci was a head coach from 1995-2020, Love had his first season as a head coach in 2018-19, an impressive 45-15-8 season coaching Kirby Dach and the WHL’s Saskatoon Blades. His time in Saskatoon was certainly respectable, to be sure, but it’s Love’s two-year run as head coach of the Calgary Flames’ AHL affiliates that has drawn the most attention. The 38-year-old former minor leaguer has won an impressive 96 of 140 regular-season games in charge of the Stockton Heat and now Calgary Wranglers, and has helped oversee the development of superstar goalie prospect Dustin Wolf.

He led Stockton to the Conference Finals in the AHL last season and now has the Wranglers in the Pacific Division Finals against fellow AHL juggernauts the Coachella Valley Firebirds. Look out for Love as a future NHL head coach, and if he can manage to add a Calder Cup championship to his resume, he could very well be a possibility for the Flames’ current vacancy.

Jeff Halpern (Tampa Bay Lightning assistant coach)

As a player, Halpern played in nearly 1,000 NHL games and by the time of his retirement was a widely-respected bottom-six center. The former Princeton University star began his coaching career relatively soon after his retirement, joining the Syracuse Crunch in time for their 2017 run to the Calder Cup final. After one more season in the Salt City, Halpern joined Cooper’s staff in Tampa Bay and ended up contributing to the team’s run that net the franchise two Stanley Cups and three Prince of Wales trophies in three seasons.

Cooper’s Stanley Cup-winning Tampa Bay Lightning staff has already been pillaged to an extent, with top assistant Derek Lalonde now the head coach of the Detroit Red Wings. With the Washington D.C. native and six-season Washington Capital perhaps making particular sense for that team’s current vacancy, it’s unlikely that Cooper’s staff goes much longer without losing another name to an outside promotion.

David Carle (University of Denver head coach)

The 33-year-old Carle has already built an impressive resume as head coach of the University of Denver, despite his relatively young age. The 2008 Tampa Bay Lightning draft pick led the Pioneers to an NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey National Championship in 2021-22, helping numerous players earn NHL contracts.

While this season ended in disappointment with a playoff loss to Cornell, Carle’s tenure as the Pioneers’ bench boss is already opening doors for his future, such as when he was last month named head coach of USA Hockey’s team for the 2024 World Junior Championships. Could a call from an NHL team be next?

The Second (or Third) Chances

Jeremy Colliton (Abbotsford Canucks head coach)

Named as the successor to Joel Quenneville with the Chicago Blackhawks, Colliton’s tenure in the Windy City didn’t exactly go to plan. He was expected to infuse some youth and energy to an aging roster, and the team had the expectation of quickly returning to Stanley Cup contention under his watch, as evidenced by the Blackhawks’ trade for Seth Jones. That didn’t happen, though, and Colliton was fired midway through 2021-22.

A former successful AHL head coach with the Rockford IceHogs, Colliton was hired to coach the Vancouver Canucks’ AHL affiliate, the Abbotsford Canucks, and has turned in solid work there, leading the team to a 40-25-7 record and a qualifying series victory over the Bakersfield Condors. He was once seen as a promising young head coaching candidate before a difficult Blackhawks tenure soured his standing in the eyes of many observers. Perhaps his strong first season in Abbotsford leads him back into “rising star” territory in the eyes of NHL teams.

Travis Green (Former Vancouver Canucks head coach)

A WHL Championship-winning head coach with the Portland Winterhawks and a respected player developer and AHL bench boss with the Utica Comets, Green had a rollercoaster run as head coach of the Vancouver Canucks that ended near the start of its fifth season. Despite the good work Green did with the Canucks’ AHL affiliate, he was ultimately a casualty of the doomed Jim Benning era, unable to separate himself from the mistakes the franchise is still working to recover from.

A team with a head coaching vacancy could look at Green and see someone who nearly took the Vancouver Canucks to the Western Conference Final and had a stellar record of balancing winning and player development in the AHL with Utica. While he might need to take another job as a stepping stone before getting another chance as an NHL bench boss, it’s possible that a club buys into Green as a talented head coach who might just need another shot.

Glen Gulutzan (Edmonton Oilers assistant coach)

Unlike Green and Colliton, Gulutzan has actually already received a second chance as an NHL coach. He got that in 2016-17, when he was hired to coach the Calgary Flames three seasons removed from when he was head coach of the Dallas Stars.

Before his tenure in Dallas went up in flames, Gulutzan worked his way up from successful ECHL head coach with the Las Vegas Wranglers to Calder Cup finalist with the Texas Stars to promising young NHL head coach.

Since being fired by the Flames, Gulutzan has been an assistant coach with the Edmonton Oilers and remained on staff even as the team cycled through head coaches, going from Todd McLellan to Ken Hitchcock to Dave Tippett and then to Jay Woodcroft.

Gulutzan is charged with managing Edmonton’s power play, a unit that has stolen headlines this season as by far the league’s best, scoring at a 32.4% rate. If there is a club with some talented offensive firepower but a sputtering powerplay, such as the Ducks, perhaps Gulutzan could be an intriguing option.

Todd Nelson (Hershey Bears head coach)

Nelson is an experienced minor league head coach whose only experience as an NHL head coach came in 2014-15 when the franchise’s focus was squared more intensely on their odds of winning the Connor McDavid draft lottery than immediate Stanley Cup contention. After serving on the Dallas Stars’ coaching staff and helping the franchise reach the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, Nelson this season took the job as the Hershey Bears’ head coach and currently has them in the AHL’s Atlantic Division finals.

Nelson is already a Calder Cup champion, having managed the Grand Rapids Griffins to a title in 2016-17, and could very well add another championship to his trophy cabinet by the end of this season. He has exactly the sort of resume many teams want to see out of up-and-coming head coaches, and this hiring cycle could be the time he finally gets a real shot at being an NHL head coach.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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