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Free Agent Focus: Boston Bruins

at CDT | by 15 Comments

Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Boston Bruins.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Trent Frederic – Frederic earned a full-time role on the Bruins this season, which is an accomplishment when you consider the team won 65 games in the regular season, setting an NHL record. The 25-year-old center was a late first round draft pick in 2016 and just had his best NHL season. He scored 17 goals and 31 points, adding some offensive punch while routinely playing on the team’s fourth line.

Frederic is coming off a two-year contract where he earned just over $1MM per season. He signed that contract before he even became a regular in the lineup, so after scoring nearly 20 goals he will be looking for a big raise, and a bigger role on the ice as well. He has arbitration rights and a decent argument to make $2.5 – $3MM with his offensive numbers.

G Jeremy Swayman – Technically the team’s backup goaltender, Swayman was pretty busy, playing 37 games for the league leading Bruins. He posted a 2.27 GAA and a .920 SV%. Though he is just completing his entry-level contract, the 24 year old has played 88 career NHL games and has a 2.24 GAA and .920 SV% in that time. He has a great argument for a large raise on his $925k salary, and could earn as much as $3MM on a short-term deal which would give him a chance to really prove himself before cashing in on a longer contract.

Others RFAs: Samuel Asselin, Shane Bowers, Jakub Lauko, Marc McLaughlin, Kai Wissmann, Brandon Bussi, Michael DiPietro, Kyle Keyser

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Patrice Bergeron – Yet another Selke nomination (and likely winning) season in the books for Bergeron as he continues his reign as the best defensive forward in the game. The only question is, will he continue to play or is his career coming to a close? He played this season on a one-year contract with a cap hit of $2.5MM but a total value of $5MM when you include bonuses. Of course, the veteran is worth every penny, but is he going to sign another team-friendly deal?

At 37 years of age, and a long wait after the Bruins season ended to embrace his teammates, it appears Bergeron may be considering retirement instead of a return to the Bruins in 2023-24.

F David Krejci – Like Bergeron, Krejci played on a team-friendly deal this past season, but also appears to be considering the end of his playing career. He earned just $1MM in salary last season plus $2MM in bonuses, and scored 16 goals and 56 points in 70 games. The 37-year-old center played the 2021-22 season in Czechia and could be heading back there next season as well.

F Tyler Bertuzzi – Bertuzzi was a trade deadline pickup of the Bruins and could be in for a big payday if he decides to hit the open market this offseason. He fit in perfectly in Boston, scoring 16 points in 21 regular season games and ten points in seven playoff games with the Bruins. A bit of a scrappy winger, Bertuzzi adds a lot more than just offense and could capitalize on a rather weak free agent class this offseason.

The 28-year-old winger made $4.75MM for the past two seasons and is likely looking to add another $2MM or so to that on his next contract after a strong run with the Bruins and a 30-goal and 62-point season in 68 games in 2021-22. The Bruins will need to decide if they want to commit that to a winger, or hold onto that cap space to find centers.

F Nick Foligno – Foligno signed a two-year contract with the Bruins in 2021 and though he ended up being overpaid during that time, he did fill a valuable role on the team as an experienced winger who plays a scrappy style and adds a bit of scoring from the fourth line. The 35 year old had ten goals and 26 points in 60 regular season games and would be willing to return to Boston at a fraction of the $3.8MM salary he earned for the past two seasons.

F Garnet Hathaway – Another trade deadline pickup, Hathaway played on the team’s bottom six while bringing energy, physicality and strong defensive play. He also scored 22 points in 84 games split between the Washington Capitals and Bruins. Hathaway signed a four-year contract with a cap hit of $1.5MM with the Capitals in 2019 and played well in that time, earning himself a raise on his next contract. At 31 years of age, he may not get another four year deal, but a two or three year contract with a cap hit of $2MM would make sense, though the Bruins may look to spend their money elsewhere.

D Dmitry Orlov – Orlov was an elite fit on the Bruins lineup, earning the moniker (Orr)lov during his short stint in Boston. He arrived with Hathaway in a trade from the Capitals and clicked immediately on the left defense, scoring 17 points in 23 regular season games and eight more points in seven postseason contests. The Bruins already have big money committed to Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy on the blue line and may not have the space to retain Orlov.

The 31-year-old defenseman is arguably the most valuable player eligible to become a free agent this offseason, and would be wise to see what offers are out there for him. It has been suggested he wants to return to Washington, but wherever he ends up, he will sign a long-term agreement and it will surely be with a larger cap hit than the $5.1MM he has been earning since 2017. If he tests the open market, he could earn as much as $7MM on a five year contract.

Other UFAs: Tomas Nosek, Matt Filipe, Joona Koppanen, Vinni Lettieri, Chris Wagner, Connor Clifton, Jack Ahcan, Connor Carrick, Anton Stralman, Nick Wolff

Projected Cap Space

The Bruins show just under $5MM in cap space this offseason but they have some considerable holes to fill. If Bergeron and Krejci both leave the NHL, the Bruins are without their top two centers. Bertuzzi, Orlov and Hathaway were all trade deadline acquisitions but there is little chance they find the room to keep any of them with their limited space. Swayman has been excellent for them, and is just coming into his own at the NHL level, but will they be able to find space to keep him or does he get traded? Ideally, the Bruins would find a way to move Mike Reilly’s contract which has one year left on it at $3MM. This would open up a bit of space to re-sign some key players and fill out their roster. It will be an interesting offseason in Boston with so many holes to fill and not many dollars to spend.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Arizona Coyotes

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Arizona Coyotes.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Christian Fischer – Fischer initially looked like a future top-six point producer for the Coyotes after being drafted early in the second round of the 2015 NHL Draft. He scored 15 goals and 33 points in 79 games as a 20-year-old rookie in 2017-18. Unfortunately, he has not reached those totals again in his career, though he is coming off his second best offensive season. The 26 year old scored 13 goals and 27 points in 80 games and will now look for a bit of a raise.

At 6-foot-2 and 214 pounds, Fischer brings size and a bit of physicality to the ice, which gives him a little more value than just his offense. Fischer is coming off a one-year contract with a $1.125MM cap hit which he signed after scoring five goals and ten points in 53 games in the 2021-22 season. After basically doubling his offensive output on a per-game basis, Fischer will likely look to double his salary as well and try to get a few years of term on his deal as well.

F Matias Maccelli – Maccelli had one of the quietest strong seasons in the NHL this year. A bit of an unknown in hockey circles, Maccelli put together a strong rookie season and earned some mentions in Calder Trophy talks. He was not one of the three finalists, but once the ballots are released, I’m sure he will be one of the next few players on the list.

Dec 19, 2022; Matias Maccelli. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The 22 year old Finnish forward was a fourth round pick of the Coyotes in 2019 and has a strong AHL season in 2021-22 but really broke out with the Coyotes this season. He scored 11 goals and 49 points in 64 games which put him third on the team in points. He is just coming off his entry-level contract so he does not have arbitration rights yet which does not give the player much leverage. However, his point total will give him some reason to ask for a big raise, though the team will likely look for a bridge deal to see if he can repeat his offensive output while keeping his restricted free agent status following his next contract. A two-year deal with a cap hit of $2MM could make sense for both sides.

F Jack McBain – McBain was a third round pick of the Minnesota Wild but signed with the Coyotes after a four-year NCAA career at Boston College. While he developed into a star player at the college level, he is still just finding his way in the NHL. The 23 year old just wrapped up his first full NHL season by scoring 12 goals and 26 points in 82 games.

He has now completed his two-year entry-level contract but he burned the first year by playing ten NHL games following his college season ending just over a year ago. That means he does not have a ton of pro experience and not a lot of reason to ask for a big raise. The Coyotes were willing to give the young player a full-time NHL role right out of college and he would be wise to re-sign at a cap hit around $1M to continue developing his game in the best league in the world.

G Connor Ingram – Ingram earned the backup role for the Coyotes and played well behind a team that was not the greatest defensively. He suited up for 27 games and while his 3.37 GAA does not look great, he had a decent .907 SV% while facing a high quality of shots against. He will look for a small raise on his $733k cap hit from the past three seasons.

Other RFAs: Jan Jenik, Nathan Smith, Cameron Crotty, Ivan Prosvetov, David Tendeck

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Laurent Dauphin – Dauphin has proven to be a capable scorer at the AHL level in his career, but has not broken through to show he is a full-time NHL player yet. He played 21 games with the Coyotes this season and had just one point. The 28-year-old center now has 17 points in 94 career NHL games, though he did score 41 points in 48 AHL games this season.

Dauphin will sign another two-way contract with some team at a league minimum NHL salary but is destined for waivers at the start of next season on his way to another strong AHL campaign.

F Brett Ritchie – One part of the infamous brother trade that sent Brett to Arizona and Nick to Calgary, this Ritchie could now hit the open market. He had eight goals and 13 points in 50 games split between the Flames and Coyotes last season and will now look to sign another league minimum two-way deal for the upcoming season.

D Connor Mackey – Also traded from Calgary to Arizona midseason, Mackey was a promising college free agent just a few years ago and could prove to be valuable depth for a team like the Coyotes next season. He is currently playing at the World Championships after scoring seven points in 30 NHL games and his 6-foot-2 frame allows him to defend his side of the ice. He is a bit of a late bloomer, signing out of college at 24, and he is likely looking for a short term deal at league minimum as well.

Other UFAs: Michael Carcone, Bokondji Imama, Steven Kampfer

Projected Cap Space

Cap space won’t be an issue for Arizona this summer. In fact, they are going to have to be aggressive to spend to the cap floor. They have $27MM in cap space and need to spend about $6MM just to reach the league’s minimum salary for next season. They have been stockpiling draft picks and prospects but do not look to be ready to contend just yet. They will need to sign a few free agents or take on another dead contract like they already have with Shea Weber, Bryan Little and Jakub Voracek just to eat up cap space next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Anaheim Ducks

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We begin our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Anaheim Ducks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Trevor Zegras – After finishing as the runner-up in Calder Trophy voting last season, Zegras took a small step forward this season, setting new benchmarks in assists (42) and points (65) while matching his goal total from 2021-22.  That allowed him to lead the team in scoring this season.  As a center, the 22-year-old is well-positioned to land a significant long-term deal if that’s the way he chooses to go.  A max-term agreement could very well push the AAV past the $8MM mark.  However, with still five years of team control remaining (he didn’t play enough in 2020-21 to accrue a season of service time for UFA purposes), it’s possible that one or both sides look to a shorter-term bridge deal.  That would lower the AAV to somewhere in the $6MM range for now but potentially set Zegras up to push for much more down the road in a more favorable cap environment.  Whichever route they take, a big payday is coming his way.

F Troy Terry – In 2021-22, Terry narrowly edged out Zegras for the team lead in points.  This season, the tables were flipped but the 25-year-old still put up his second straight 60-point campaign after having just 48 career points over his first 129 NHL appearances.  One of the goals for Terry this year would have been to show that his breakout year wasn’t a fluke.  Mission accomplished on that front and he is set to reap the benefits.  Two years away from UFA eligibility, Terry will have arbitration eligibility this summer and it’s likely that GM Pat Verbeek will be looking to do a long-term agreement and avoid the potential for a hearing.  After playing on an AAV of $1.45MM the last three seasons, Terry’s next deal could more than quadruple that cap charge.

D Jamie Drysdale – At a time when the Ducks have all three top CHL defensemen, it could be suggested that Drysdale has fallen off the radar.  The 21-year-old suffered a torn labrum in the eighth game of the season and that was it for his year.  At that to the fact that he only suited up 24 times in his first year and Drysdale has just 113 total NHL appearances under his belt and the Ducks are working with a small sample size here.  Drysdale, a 2020 first-round pick (sixth overall), is still a significant part of Anaheim’s future but with such a limited sample size to work with and coming off a year that was more or less a write-off, a bridge contract is the likely outcome.  That could push his price tag closer to the $2MM range on a two-year deal and a bit closer to $2.5MM on a three-year term.

F Max Comtois – Two years ago, it looked like Comtois was coming into his own and was on his way to becoming at least a capable second-line power forward.  Players like those have a lot of value but then GM Bob Murray wanted to see if his performance was repeatable first.  That proved to be a wise move as Comtois simply hasn’t been able to play at the same level, failing to reach 20 points for the second straight season.  He’s owed a $2.445MM qualifying offer this summer which is a bit on the high side for someone struggling to produce.  On the other hand, losing him for free would sting with how important of a piece it looked like he was going to be not long ago.  Verbeek will need to decide if he’ll give Comtois one more chance under a new head coach or if it’s time to move on.

Other RFAs: D Axel Andersson, D Simon Benoit, G Lukas Dostal, G Olle Eriksson Ek, F Benoit-Olivier Groulx, F Bryce Kindopp, F Josiah Slavin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Kevin Shattenkirk – While the stigma of having his four-year, $26.6MM deal bought out by the Rangers back in 2019 still exists, Shattenkirk has settled in nicely in a lesser role first with Tampa Bay and the last three seasons with Anaheim.  The 34-year-old has been a capable secondary producer throughout his career while becoming more of a willing shot-blocker recently.  His days of playing on the top pairing are gone but as a fourth defender capable of logging around 20 minutes a night, there should be some interest in Shattenkirk once some of the big names come off the board.  He had a $3.9MM AAV on his deal with Anaheim and the veteran should be able to come somewhat close to that on his next contract.

G Anthony Stolarz – This season was one to forget for Stolarz (the same can basically be said for many of Anaheim’s veterans) but prior to that, he has shown some promise in limited duty, including a .917 SV% in 23 starts back in 2021-22.  The 29-year-old isn’t going to be near the top of the market for goaltenders but budget-conscious teams looking for a cheap second-stringer with a bit of upside should be looking his way.  That mindset will likely describe a few teams which should give Stolarz a decent market and a shot at surpassing the $1MM mark for the first time in his career.

F Derek Grant – It wasn’t a great platform year for the veteran who had multiple stints on injured reserve, limiting him to just 46 games.  However, he still managed to pick up 18 points in those contests, a year after collecting 15 goals and 29 points, both career highs.  The 33-year-old also won more than 55% of his faceoffs while logging plenty of ice time shorthanded.  Now with over 400 games under his belt, Grant is well-known at this point as a defensively capable middleman that can chip in a bit offensively.  Those players don’t get big contracts in free agency but he should have several offers that come in around the $1.5MM he has made in each of the last three seasons.

Other UFAs: D Nathan Beaulieu, D Michael Del Zotto, D Scott Harrington, F Justin Kirkland, F Jayson Megna, D John Moore, D Olli Juolevi, D Chase Priskie, F Dylan Sikura, D Andrej Sustr

Projected Cap Space

Cap space won’t be an issue for Anaheim this offseason as they currently have more than $39MM in cap space based on the projected $83.5MM Upper Limit for next season.  New deals for Zegras and Terry will take a sizable chunk out of that but the Ducks still project to be well under the cap for 2023-24, one that is expected to be another rebuilding effort.  If there is budget room for them to take on a bad contract or two while being compensated for it with prospects and/or draft picks, they could be a team to watch for in the coming weeks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Nashville.

The Predators came into the season hoping to continue their streak of eight straight playoff appearances (including the Qualifying Round in the bubble) but changed direction at the deadline, becoming one of the major sellers.  However, the unexpected happened and Nashville went on a run down the stretch, nearly pulling off the improbable comeback.  While David Poile did some heavy lifting at the deadline to set his successor up, incoming GM Barry Trotz (who officially takes over July 1st) will still have some work to do this summer.

Decide Hynes’ Future

After the season, Trotz indicated that he’d take some time to evaluate John Hynes and then decide on the future of his head coach.  That was more than a month ago and there hasn’t been any sort of confirmation one way or the other.  Hynes does have one year left on his contract but teams are often hesitant to have their coach behind the bench in a ‘lame duck’ situation.  It’s possible that they work out another short-term extension (not unlike the two-year deal he’s currently on) to avoid that situation.

Technically, Trotz can take his time here deciding but the first dominoes are expected to fall soon on the NHL coaching market.  If there are candidates out there that he wants, they need to be prepared to strike before that target goes elsewhere.

At this point, the long wait without a decision might actually work in Hynes’ favor but his staying on would be a tepid vote of confidence at best.  His name will undoubtedly be on the hot seat if he remains with the team, especially if there’s no extension in place.  But for now, simply deciding on if Hynes will be back behind the bench is all the team needs to decide now.

Pick A Direction

The term rebuild doesn’t come up very often when it comes to Nashville as they’ve been one of the models of consistency over the better part of the past decade.  But their playoff appearances in recent years yielded quick exits and had they snuck in this season, there’s a good chance that they would have suffered the same fate.

With all due respect to Nashville’s current roster, if they were to try to load back up this summer, they’re probably still in that middle territory and not necessarily a true contender.  However, as we’ve seen, some lower seeds have done some damage in the playoffs this season and with Juuse Saros, they have the level of goaltending that can win some games on their own.  Accordingly, there’s a case to be made for a quick retool to try to get back into the playoffs in 2024.

On the other hand, there’s also a case to be made that they should be continuing in the direction that Poile took them leading up to the deadline.  Move out some more veterans, build up the prospect pool, and try to get into a better position to be more of a real contender in a couple of years.  Is that a better approach than hoping to make the playoffs and seeing what happens from there?  Trotz will need to decide which is the better way to go and structure his offseason activity based on that choice.

Re-Sign Glass

Cody Glass had a tough first season with Nashville in 2021-22, suiting up in just eight games for the Predators and spending the rest of the year in the minors.  Accordingly, the decision for him to take his qualifying offer made sense and the Preds certainly weren’t going to want to work out a long-term deal with someone they weren’t sure would even make their team.

One year later, the narrative is much different.  The 24-year-old played the full season in the NHL, picking up 35 points in 72 games along the way.  His playing time jumped up to a new career-high while he held his own at the faceoff dot as well, checking in at just under 50%.  On the power play, he proved to be quite effective, scoring six times, good for the second-most on the team behind Roman Josi.  A year ago, it was hardly a guarantee that Glass was going to be in Nashville much longer.  Now, on a team that doesn’t have a lot of younger options down the middle, he looks like a long-term piece of the puzzle.

Glass has three years of club control remaining, all of which will have him arbitration-eligible.  Trotz has two ways he can go here, do another short-term ‘prove-it’ type of contract that gives both sides more time to see if his level of production was repeatable, if there’s more in the tank, or if this might have been as good as it gets.  Such an approach would certainly be defensible from Nashville’s perspective.

On the other hand, if they believe that Glass is going to become a core player, then perhaps the time is right to try to strike a longer-term agreement.  That would push the AAV likely past the $4MM range, a price tag that might be high now but if he pans out, it would become a team-friendly one before too long.  From Glass’ perspective, locking in guaranteed long-term money might be desirable a year after being a regular with AHL Milwaukee.  There aren’t many key free agent decisions coming for the Preds but this is an intriguing one.

Look Into Barrie Trade

When Nashville traded Mattias Ekholm to Edmonton at the trade deadline, they had to take back Tyson Barrie’s contract as salary ballast as part of the return.  Now, the veteran, who turns 32 this summer, will head into the final year of his agreement next season.  With a short-term agreement and a right-shot defense market that isn’t all that deep, the Predators are well-positioned to net a quality return should they decide to make him available this summer.

Barrie is the type of player who could be shopped around even if Nashville decides to flip the switch again and try to add.  While he’s certainly a capable point producer, he’s not someone that they should be looking to lock up long-term while if they opt to rebuild, he’s a logical piece to shop as a rental.

This isn’t a situation where they have to move him in the coming weeks.  As a known commodity, Barrie would have some value closer to the trade deadline where there’s less left on his contract and the Preds might be more willing to retain salary to help facilitate a trade.  But once players like Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba come off the board, teams looking for help now on the right side of the back end will have to turn somewhere.  Barrie should be a fallback option for those teams, potentially creating a strong enough market to move him sooner than later.  Accordingly, expect Trotz to do his homework on that front to be ready to strike if the opportunity presents itself in late June or early July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

2022-23 certainly didn’t go as planned for the Penguins.  Even with a veteran-laden roster that was added to at the trade deadline, they ultimately came up short of the postseason for the first time since 2005-06.  As a result, some have wondered if the time is right for them to try to rebuild.  However, there have been no indications that this is the direction they intend to pursue so accordingly, their checklist will revolve around their expected goal of trying to get back to the postseason.

Round Out Front Office

The Penguins wasted little time shaking up their front office once the regular season came to an end as they dismissed both GM Ron Hextall and President Brian Burke.  In the interim, it appears as if managerial decisions for Pittsburgh are being done on a by-committee basis including head coach Mike Sullivan.  They can get away with that for now with the heavy lifting of the summer still a few weeks away but that will have to change soon.

Pittsburgh is believed to be well into the process of filling at least one of those vacancies as they’re believed to be into the second round of interviews for the GM role, a process that started with roughly a dozen candidates.  It’s unknown if some of those being considered for that position could also be options for the President spot as well or if the Penguins will look towards someone more on the business side.  One way or the other, they’ll need to have their new management team in place shortly.

Re-Sign Or Replace Jarry

There aren’t a lot of starting goaltenders that will be hitting the open market this summer but the Penguins have one of them in Tristan Jarry.  When he is on his game and healthy, the 28-year-old is a strong number one.  However, his on-ice performance has been hit or miss at times the last few seasons while staying in the lineup has proven to be a bit of a challenge as well.  Accordingly, his future with the organization appears to be in question.

Jarry is coming off of what has been a team-friendly deal relative to his role with a $3.5MM cap charge.  His hope in signing what amounted to a second bridge contract back in 2020 is that by now, he’d be established as a true starter, allowing him to push for close to double that AAV on the open market.  It’s fair to say that hasn’t happened but with there being few options in free agency, he’s still likely to add a couple million and a couple more years when he eventually puts pen to paper on a new deal.

Should the Penguins be the team to give him that agreement?  Casey DeSmith has one more year left on his contract and showed some good flashes while playing in 38 games, a new benchmark for him.  Internally, there isn’t anyone in their prospect pool that’s close to being NHL-ready so if they opt to make a change, they’re going to need to look at external options.

Who would those options be?  On the trade market, Anaheim’s John Gibson and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck have been in trade speculation and whoever takes over as GM will likely inquire about those two.  Among unrestricted free agents, Semyon Varlamov has been a starter before and could be a short-term stopgap.  Joonas Korpisalo had a nice bounce-back year but there would be some risk associated with signing him with a track record that has had its fair share of ups and downs.  In terms of free agent netminders, Martin Jones is the only one that played more than Jarry did this season, a sign that there are mostly platoon options available on the open market.

Are any of those options more desirable than sticking with the goalie they know, even with his long history of injuries?  With Jarry being eligible to test free agency in six weeks, that’s a question that they’ll need to figure out an answer to fairly quickly.

Create Cap Flexibility

On the surface, the Penguins would appear to have plenty of salary cap room for next season.  With roughly $63.3MM on the books for next season per CapFriendly, that leaves them about $20MM to work with.  But it’s the spots they have to fill that will ultimately create a cap crunch.  As noted earlier, they need a starting goalie.  They need to re-sign or replace Jason Zucker, a veteran who had a strong bounce-back year, potting the second-most goals of his career with 27.  Brian Dumoulin, who has been a top-four defender for several years, also is set to hit the open market.  Filling those three spots will cost the bulk of that cap room, to say nothing of the three bottom-six forwards that will also reach unrestricted free agency as well.

Sure, there’s enough money for them to fill those spots and ice a full-sized roster on opening night.  But what does that accomplish?  This is a team that wasn’t able to make the playoffs so having a roster that largely mirrors what they had down the stretch shouldn’t be the goal.  If they want to make the postseason in 2023-24, they need to find a way to improve their roster.  Within their current cap structure, that could be challenging.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see whoever takes over as GM looks to see if he can find a taker for the final two years at $5MM per season on Mikael Granlund’s contract.  Alternatively, Bryan Rust, signed at a $5.125MM AAV through 2027-28 could be someone they test the market on.  Defensively, Jeff Petry (two years, $6.25MM) and Marcus Pettersson (two years, $4.025MM) could be in that category as well.  All of them are certainly still capable NHL players but if they’re going to try to shake up the core and bring some different impact players in, that will have to involve moving some core pieces out as well.

Guentzel Extension Talks

One player that could potentially be added to the list above is Jake Guentzel.  He is signed at a team-friendly $6MM AAV through the end of next season which makes him eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1st.  Considering that the 28-year-old has averaged better than a point per game over the past five seasons (333 points in 331 games) and surpassed the 35-goal mark in three of those, it’s fair to suggest that their preference this summer will be to try to sign him to a new deal.  If those discussions don’t go well, then it’s possible (though not probable) that he could become part of that core shakeup.

What might an extension cost?  His camp will likely look to the eight-year, $68MM deal ($8.5MM AAV) that Filip Forsberg signed in Nashville to avoid free agency as the starting point of negotiations.  With Forsberg only having one season with more production than Guentzel in recent years, it’s safe to say they’ll be aiming higher; it wouldn’t be surprising to see his camp push for a cap hit starting with a nine on a max-term agreement.  Pittsburgh might try to argue that his cap charge shouldn’t surpass Sidney Crosby’s $8.7MM but with the captain being signed only one year longer than Guentzel’s current contract, that argument isn’t likely to hold water.

Guentzel has been a key part of Pittsburgh’s top line for several seasons now but he’s about to get a lot more expensive.  If they can get that deal done now, they can avoid any possible trade speculation during the season while also gaining some clarity on what their longer-term cap picture could look like.  Accordingly, whoever the next GM will be, Guentzel’s file should be quite high on their to-do list.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Devils, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Wild, Wright, Robertson, Thunderbirds, Top Pick

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Jason Robertson’s quiet start to the playoffs, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back later on as due to the volume of questions submitted, we’ll be running two more mailbags between now and next weekend.

SpeakOfTheDevils: What do the Devils do at the goalie position this summer? Obviously, Bernier retires, Blackwood isn’t qualified, do we run a Vanecek/Schmid platoon or trade Vanecek for someone like Saros or Hellebuyck?

First, I’ll agree with you on the first two.  Jonathan Bernier has been out for over a year and a half so he clearly isn’t returning.  I still think Mackenzie Blackwood can be a good NHL goalie but after being relegated to third-string status for the playoffs plus his $3.36MM qualifying offer, he’s not coming back either.

I’ll start my answer to your question with another question.  Do the Devils think they can re-sign both Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier?  Neither are goaltenders obviously but they’re going to have an impact on what does – or doesn’t – happen between the pipes.

There’s only so much cap space to go around and a lot of what they have is going to have to go to those two, probably somewhere around $18MM, give or take.  If those two sign and they have big contracts on the books already in Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Dougie Hamilton, can they afford another big one?  Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck aren’t on contracts at that level yet but will be soon enough and I’m not sure it’s justifiable to make a move for one of them without being prepared to pay up for their next, much more expensive, deal.

Right now, I think New Jersey’s intention is to re-sign both wingers and that will more or less force their hand into going cheap between the pipes with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid so that’s what I’ll go with as an answer.  But if talks with one of them fall through and they wind up getting moved, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were to take a run at a goaltending upgrade.

PyramidHeadcrab: What’s the long-term plan for the Arizona Coyotes and Columbus Blue Jackets?

Arizona has become a dumping ground for bad contracts, and they trade away every quality asset they develop. They’re playing in an OHL-sized arena and icing a team that has no chance of competing. Are they built to serve other teams? I don’t see the goal here.

Columbus has flirted with the playoffs and hosted some genuine star talent at points, but they seem to be cursed with injuries and mediocre depth/prospects. Does Columbus ever pull it all together and reliably compete, or do they simply continue to exist in perpetual suffering?

This is certainly a topical question with the arena proposal for the Coyotes getting voted down earlier this week (and it was particularly timely as it came before the news broke).  Franchise-wise, I do think the team is going to take a serious look at trying to find a Plan B that works in the desert over the next eight-to-ten months.  If nothing presents itself, then relocation could very well be on the table with a new owner in place.

But as you noted in your follow-up comment, you were looking at more of the on-ice element for both teams.  For Arizona, they’ve made it clear that they haven’t had much desire to win for the last several years and based on GM Bill Armstrong’s comments earlier about where they are in that process, probably a few more.  I don’t think they’re concerned about not having an overly competitive team; their goal is competing a few years from now with a bunch of promising prospects growing together into a sustainable contender.  Taking on injured players allows them to keep net payroll costs down (they’re paying considerably less than the AAV after insurance) which is particularly important playing in the arena they’re currently in.  There’s an end game for this, it just won’t be seen for a little while longer.

As for Columbus, I’m not particularly bullish on their future.  I get that landing Johnny Gaudreau resulted in them trying to expedite things but clearly, it didn’t work.  They’re going to get a high-end talent with the third pick next month at least and they have some quality youngsters headlined by David Jiricek and Kent Johnson.  With them, Gaudreau, and Patrik Laine, there’s a good foundation.  But unless their new head coach can elevate their play to another level, this feels like a franchise whose peak might be a second-round exit or two.  That’s not terrible but while I wouldn’t necessarily say they’ll be perpetually suffering, I don’t see them getting over the proverbial hump anytime soon.

Zakis: What youngsters make the Wild opening day roster next year and what kind of impact do you think they can make? To piggyback on a comment, what is the role of a POHO? More focused on the on-ice product or business side? Thanks as always.

Let’s start with Brock Faber.  He didn’t look out of place in the playoffs and with Mathew Dumba and John Klingberg heading for unrestricted free agency in July, there should be a spot in the lineup for him.  Next season, I don’t think he’s going to make a huge impact right away but I could see his ATOI getting into the 16-18-minute range which would be a solid rookie year.

Up front, I think Marco Rossi breaks camp at least with Minnesota.  Now with basically two full AHL seasons under his belt, they need to get a feel for where he is development-wise.  If he winds up back on the fourth line eventually, then they can send him back down but I suspect he’ll get a look.  His impact might wind up being negligible, however.

I see the Wild being a team that could be active in free agency in September.  There are always free agent bargains to be had at that point and they might bring in a veteran or two that could push someone like Samuel Walker or Adam Beckman back to Iowa to start.  If you want a dark horse forward to break camp, I’ll throw out Caedan Bankier.  If they go young on the fourth line, his defensive game is good enough to stick while providing some offensive upside.  A good camp could have him in the mix.

As for the role of a President of Hockey Operations (or POHO), it varies from team to team.  Some are really involved in the day-to-day operations to the point where they could have the final say on strategy and personnel moves with the GM then going out and executing them.  Some teams don’t have a President of Hockey Operations, they just have a President (Minnesota is one of those with Matt Majka).  Some have a POHO on paper but in reality, they’re not overly involved with on-ice elements.  In those instances, they’re heavily involved in business strategy, marketing, and revenue growth.

aka.nda: Been wondering about Shane Wright’s next few seasons. Would a trade scenario be unconscionable? If not, what is his value like? Who would be a good fit and why?

It would be a bit of a shock to see a fourth-overall pick traded one year later but I suppose it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility.  For it to happen, Seattle would need to be convinced that he’s not going to pan out as they hoped a year ago which frankly, would be a particularly aggressive conclusion to draw for someone who has less than 30 games of professional experience under his belt.  GM Ron Francis is patient and this would be the opposite of that.  The other element required here would be another team would need to feel the other way, that he is still a high-quality center prospect.  That one is easier to see happening as I’m sure plenty of teams would want to get their hands on him.

From a trade value perspective, I’d peg it somewhere around what the tenth pick would fetch in a trade.  Last year wasn’t the deepest of drafts and his post-draft year wasn’t great (though it wasn’t bad either, by any stretch) so I think his value would be down slightly relative to a year ago.  From the fit side of things, anyone who needs a young center would be a fit on paper.  That’s a lot of teams.

I’m trying to think of a scenario that could make Francis pull the trigger and this is the best I could come up with.  A team makes a promising young center that’s 21 or 22 and either already in the NHL (or should be next season) available.  That player doesn’t fit the trading team’s timeline as they’re in a rebuild but Wright does.  I’m not sure there’s a team in a rebuild right now with someone that age with that much control and upside that could be made available in this scenario.  But that’s my guess on what it would take for them to move Wright that quickly.

jacl: What the hell is going on with Jason Robertson? This is two years in a row he has disappeared in the playoffs.

As much as Robertson has struggled to score, he still sat second on the Stars in points heading into the start of their series against Vegas at just under a point per game.  That’s not terrible.  I’d suggest that he has been better this year than 2022, his first taste of postseason action so that’s a step in the right direction, if nothing else.

It’s a simple answer but sometimes, it takes players a while to adapt to the different way that playoff hockey is played.  In particular, smaller offensive players can deal with some challenges with the tighter checking and greater physicality; look no further than Dallas’ first-round opponent in Minnesota who didn’t get a lot from Kirill Kaprizov that series.  Robertson enters this series with 19 playoff games under his belt which isn’t a whole lot.  There’s still a lot of time for him to figure out the nuances of playoff hockey, not just this year but beyond.  But it looks like it’s going to take him a bit longer to play at his regular season level in the postseason.

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Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Buffalo.

It has been quite a while since the Sabres made it to the playoffs (the last time they did was in 2011) but optimism is justifiably on the increase in Buffalo.  Several youngsters are starting to grab hold of key spots in the lineup which sparked an impressive second-half run that kept them close to the postseason until the very end.  Accordingly, a lot of their to-do list this offseason revolves around adding to and extending their core, not flipping players for prospects and draft picks.  The time for rebuilding is pretty much over.

Look At Adding A Veteran Starter

Between Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres have a pair of young promising prospects who could form a quality tandem before too long.  While it’s quite possible that those two could be the duo next season, that would carry some risk as the pair have 52 career NHL starts combined.  If this was another rebuilding year, perhaps playing both of them would carry some merit but it’s fair to suggest that there will be an expectation of them playing past the 82-game mark next season.

Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Kevyn Adams look at what’s out there in terms of trade or free agent options.  Anaheim’s John Gibson has been in trade speculation for a while and although Buffalo might not like the four years remaining on his contract, a change of scenery could get him back to being an above-average goaltender.  That would certainly give them a boost in the short term although it’d create a scenario where one of Luukkonen or Levi would likely need to be moved at some point if not as a part of that swap.

If Winnipeg winds up starting a rebuild and moving Connor Hellebuyck, he’d be particularly intriguing, even as a one-year rental.  He’d give the Sabres a significant boost and if the two youngsters weren’t in the swap, they could still try them as a cost-controllable tandem as soon as 2024-25.

In free agency, it’d be surprising to see them take a run at someone like Tristan Jarry.  However, veteran Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term upgrade, allowing Levi to spend some time with AHL Rochester while giving them an upgrade on what they got from veterans Craig Anderson (now retired) and Eric Comrie (still signed for one more year).

Buffalo is in decent shape here in the sense that they don’t necessarily have to make a move.  If they think Levi is ready to be a full-time NHL regular, there could be some upside to going with their top prospects although the risk is certainly higher as well.  But if they can bring in an upgrade, even if it’s just another shorter-term stopgap, it could certainly give them a lift for next season.

Extension Talks

The Sabres will have two prominent defensemen entering the final year of their respective deals and will thus be eligible for contract extensions as soon as July 1st.  Both players are in vastly different situations.

Rasmus Dahlin didn’t quite live up to the hype of being a franchise defenseman over his first three seasons.  There were flashes of dominance but he certainly had more than his fair share of struggles as well.  However, he showed some improvement once Don Granato took over down the stretch in 2020-21, doing well enough for the two sides to agree on a three-year bridge deal that summer.

Since then, Dahlin has certainly become Buffalo’s franchise blueliner.  He has been one of the top two-way rearguards in the league over the last couple of seasons and at 23, it’s fair to say that there is still room for improvement.  His qualifying offer next summer is $7.2MM but that’s not really relevant as there’s a very good chance that Dahlin will become the next NHL blueliner making $10MM or more on a long-term deal.

Then there’s Owen Power.  Like Dahlin, he was a first-overall selection but he’s still at just the beginning of his career having played his first full NHL campaign just this season.  However, by burning the first year with an eight-game appearance in 2021-22, he’s not far away from a new deal.  Have the Sabres seen enough to do a long-term contract now?  That’s far from a guarantee, nor is it that his camp would be willing to sign a long-term deal just 87 games into his NHL career.  Accordingly, while Adams will likely at least explore what the framework of an agreement might look like, this one might not get done this summer.

Determine Olofsson’s Future

Victor Olofsson has been a productive winger for Buffalo, notching at least 20 goals in three of the last four seasons.  However, for the bulk of those four campaigns, it would be fair to say that he has seemingly been on thin ice with the team.  He only received a bridge deal after his entry-level contract and then last year, basically signed a second one, one that gave him a nice raise to $4.75MM but only locked him up for one extra year of team control, 2023-24.

Even with setting a new benchmark for goals this season with 28, Olofsson found himself a healthy scratch at times while being on the fourth line at others, hardly the ideal spot for a player like him.

With back-to-back short-term contracts, the team has punted making a decision on Olofsson’s long-term future in Buffalo but it’s getting to be time to make that decision.  It’s not that they can’t go into next season with him in his walk year but more that they shouldn’t.  With more than 260 career games under his belt, the Sabres know what he can and can’t bring to the table.

Is what he can do worth keeping around?  If so, then they can start to work on an extension.  If not, the time might be right to try to move him before free agency before teams set their opening rosters.  With his cap hit, it would be a swap of players needing a change of scenery, perhaps the newcomer might be a better fit for the roster if they decide to move on from Olofsson.

Add An Impact Defenseman

Even with Dahlin and Power on the roster plus Mattias Samuelsson whose seven-year deal kicks in next season, there’s a definite need to upgrade the back end.  In particular, the right side of the blueline as those three are all left-shot blueliners, leaving Henri Jokiharju as the top option among right-shot rearguards.

Adding one more capable right-shot defender to the mix would nicely round out a back end that still has room for internal improvement as well.  Those players aren’t the easiest to trade for but with the Sabres having ample cap room in a summer when few teams can say that, that will give them an option to try to take advantage of another team’s cap challenges to try to fill that spot.

Alternatively, there are a couple of free agent options that would fit the bill as well in Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba.  Both players are capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night and have shown an ability to produce offensively in the past though both are coming off quieter-than-expected years.  Both are 28 so they will likely command a long-term deal but at the moment, Samuelsson is Buffalo’s only defenseman signed beyond 2023-24; some stability at that position probably wouldn’t hurt.

There was a significant gap between the defenseman that was fourth in ATOI this season (Jokiharju, 21:01) and fifth (Kale Clague, 15:06).  Balancing things out, especially with Samuelsson and Jokiharju having a recent history of injuries, should be high on the priority list, especially with no one else in their system that’s ready to make the jump and play a key role on an NHL roster in the near future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? Our Conference Finals coverage continues with the Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs semifinal matchups are set and the Sun Belt franchises will take center stage. While the Carolina Hurricanes will take on the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final, it will be the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights facing off to be the western conference champion.

While the Western Conference Final features two teams in non-traditional hockey markets, these are no cinderella squads on an unlikely run. In fact, the Stars and Golden Knights are two powerhouses who will go toe-to-toe in what promises to be an exciting, fast-paced and highly skilled matchup.

The Golden Knights finished atop the Pacific Division standings and were the top ranked team in the entire western conference with a record of 51-22-9 which gave them 111 points. The Stars were not far behind, finishing second in the Central Division with 108 points, just one back of the Colorado Avalanche for top spot in the division.

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential

Head-To-Head

January 16, 2023: Dallas 4, Vegas 0
February 25, 2023: Dallas 3, Vegas 2 (SO)
April 8, 2023: Dallas 2, Vegas 1 (SO)

Dallas takes season series 3-0-0

Team Storylines

One question for Vegas is whether or not star winger Mark Stone has another strong series in him. He is clearly dealing with back discomfort and appeared frustrated at times in the postseason as teams targeted him. He remained calm enough to score a pair of goals and four points in six games while playing great defensive hockey as usual. Can he continue to play well throughout the postseason? We shall soon find out.

Speaking of great defensive hockey, one question for the Stars is can they break through the Golden Knights defensive shield at even strength? The Edmonton Oilers could not get anything done at 5-on-5 against the Golden Knights, even with two of the league’s best players on their roster. The Oilers, the NHL’s highest scoring team in the regular season, scored ten goals in the final four games of their series with the Golden Knights, lost three of them and were eliminated.

The Stars have shown they have the depth to score at even strength. In their seven game series victory over the Seattle Kraken, they scored 22 goals at even strength, which is an average of just over three per game.

Will they be able to continue that pace in round three? Joe Pavelski is scoring at will this postseason with eight goals in eight games played. Roope Hintz leads the way for the Stars with 19 points in 13 games. Jason Robertson, Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgeni Dadonov all have nine or more points in 13 games as well giving the Stars tremendous scoring depth up front.

Flipping back to the Golden Knights, they have plenty of scoring depth of their own. Jack Eichel leads the way with 14 points in 11 games so far in the playoffs. Stone is also over a point per game with 12. Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Reilly Smith andWilliam Karlsson all have eight or more points, with scoring coming from each of the team’s top three lines.

Both teams bolster deep blue lines as well. The Golden Knights rely heavily on Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore andAlec Martinez who form a tremendous top three. Nic Hague, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud round out an extremely deep and talented group of two-way defenders who can chip in with plenty of offense while playing fantastic defensive hockey.

The Stars have a nice mix of veteran savvy and youthful exuberance on the back end. Ryan Suter and Colin Miller may not be as effective as they once were, but they provide a steady defensive presence and leadership qualities. Miro Heiskanen is an elite defenseman who could garner Conn Smythe votes if he keeps playing the way he has so far in the postseason. The 23 year old is joined by 21 year old Thomas Harley, who quickly emerged as a key defender and has seven points in 13 playoff games.

Perhaps the biggest question heading into this series is which goaltender can bounce back the quickest? Neither were spectacular in the second round, but getting hot for the next two weeks would lead their team to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Jake Oettinger started every game for the Stars in their series win over the Kraken, but he had a 3.50 GAA and a .877 save percentage in those seven games. Adin Hill took over from Laurent Brossoit and started the final three games of the series after performing well in relief in Game 2 and 3. He allowed seven goals in his first two starts but then shut the door, stopping 38 of 40 shots to help the Knights advance with a Game 6 win.

Will Oettinger return to form and be the best goalie in the series? Or will Hill use his most recent start as a jumping off point for a great series? The answers to those questions could determine who moves on to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Dallas Stars head coach Peter Deboer is in familiar territory in this series. He was hired as the coach of the Golden Knights in January of 2020 and helped them reach the Western Conference Final where they lost to the… Dallas Stars. This rematch now sees Deboer on the other bench, and he will look to get back at his former team for firing him.

Prediction

Two deep teams with no weaknesses that jump out at you will lead to a long series. Both teams have deep blue lines, both teams will get scoring from up and down their lineup, both teams can defend well and play a physical style of hockey.

Also important at this time of year is both teams have remained quite healthy. Everyone is dealing with bumps and bruises but there are no long-term injuries to star players on either lineup right now. That makes the margin for error quite slim on either side.

When it all boils down, goaltending could be the difference, and Oettinger seems to be the more likely choice to have a strong seven game series. That could give the slightest of edges to the Stars in a series that promises to be a long and memorable one.

Prediction: Stars win in seven games.

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Expectations were high for the Senators this season.  After acquiring Alex DeBrincat at the draft and signing Claude Giroux in free agency, a developing forward group got a lot more dangerous.  They added a capable veteran goalie in Cam Talbot as well.  The hope was those moves would help propel them into the playoffs.  Instead, the team struggled considerably early on while dealing with some untimely injuries to key players.  Even after making another big acquisition at the trade deadline in Jakob Chychrun, they ultimately came up short once again, extending their drought to six straight seasons.  While they’re heading in the right direction, Ottawa still has some work to do this summer.

Resolve Ownership Situation

First and foremost, this team needs to get its new owner in place.  Binding bids including a deposit were due to be submitted on Monday, bringing the process one step closer to a resolution.  From there, the winning bidder, likely following another round of negotiations, has to be approved by the Board of Governors and lock in their financing before the purchase can be finalized.

Why does this matter from an on-ice perspective?  It remains to be seen if the new ownership group will want to continue with Pierre Dorion as GM or bring someone else in.  That uncertainty then carries over to D.J. Smith and the rest of the coaching staff; would a new owner and possibly new GM want to clean house?  The sooner the new owner is in place, the better from an organizational certainty standpoint.

Deal With DeBrincat

When the Senators picked up DeBrincat a year ago, they thought they would be getting a quality top-line scorer.  While he didn’t have a poor season, he didn’t exactly live up to expectations either.  After picking up 41 goals in his final season with Chicago, that output dipped to 27 in 2022-23 although he set a career-high in assists with 39 to help him finish fourth on the team in scoring.  That’s not terrible output by any stretch but it would be fair to suggest that they were expecting more from him.

DeBrincat is set to become a restricted free agent this summer for the final time as he’s one year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  He’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility.  On top of that, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rule which is the base salary of the final year of his contract.  While his cap hit the last three years was $6.4MM, his salary this season was $9MM.  That means the Senators must tender him a $9MM qualifying offer, something that Dorion has already they will do if it comes to that point.

So, will it get to that point?  That’s the big question.  Does DeBrincat want to do a long-term deal with Ottawa?  Those are discussions that Dorion will need to have with his representation now to be ready to pivot, if necessary.  If the 25-year-old appears to be leaning toward a one-year deal to hit the open market, it’s quite possible that the Senators will turn around and look to move him.  That’s a move that’s a lot easier to make before the draft in late June while allowing the acquiring team to have time to negotiate a long-term agreement before the qualifying offer comes into play.

If DeBrincat opts to re-sign, there’s a good chance that a one-year deal would simply be him accepting the qualifying offer.  While Ottawa could opt to take him to arbitration, a move that could allow their offer to come in at 85% of the qualifier ($7.65MM), such a move would be antagonistic toward longer-term discussions so they might not want to go that route.  Similarly, if DeBrincat is qualified, there isn’t much of a chance for him to land considerably more than $9MM in an arbitration hearing, lessening the chances of him opting to go that way either.

Meanwhile, a long-term agreement is also likely to come in close to the $9MM mark.  Ottawa’s highest-paid player next season is Tim Stutzle who has an AAV of $8.35MM.  The Sens would certainly like to get DeBrincat in below that mark but it will probably take more than that to get him to agree.  Regardless of which route both sides wind up going, getting this resolved sooner than later needs to be a priority.

Sign A Goalie

When Dorion moved then-unproven prospect Filip Gustavsson to Minnesota for Talbot last offseason, they were hoping that he and Anton Forsberg would form a steady tandem between the pipes.  Instead, Talbot battled injuries throughout the year while Forsberg took a significant step back from his 2021-22 performance.  While Forsberg is still under contract for two more seasons at a $2.75MM AAV, Talbot is a pending unrestricted free agent and has already been told that he won’t be back.  That means there’s a spot to fill in the crease.

Internally, Mads Sogaard is still viewed as Ottawa’s goaltender of the future.  However, the 21-year-old has just 64 career appearances at the AHL level and still has two years of waiver exemption remaining.  While some young goalies can step in full-time in the NHL at that age, teams generally like to slow-play their netminders, allowing them to get frequent starts in the minors.  It would make sense for the Senators to take that approach with Sogaard so penciling him in as Forsberg’s tandem mate shouldn’t be the top plan.

Instead, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dorion look to find another Talbot-like netminder, one that he can sign for a year or two at a price point similar to Forsberg’s.  That would up the floor in terms of production while allowing Sogaard the development time that he could still benefit from.  It’s not a great UFA market for goaltenders but there are several second-stringers that should be available to choose from as things stand.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see them kick the tires on the trade market as well but as long as they feel that Sogaard is their guy in the next couple of years, it’s hard to imagine they’d pay a high price to trade for someone to cover between now and then.

Rebuild The Bottom Six

With Ottawa missing the playoffs despite their upgrades up front, one might think that they had a lack of production from their top players.  But they did have six forwards notch 20 goals while their top five forwards all had at least 62 points.  Not many other teams can say that.  However, they were in the bottom half of the league for goals scored.

The reason for that?  They simply didn’t get much scoring from their bottom six with the exception of Shane Pinto (who was often pressed into top-six duty) or Derick Brassard, who’s a pending UFA.  Mathieu Joseph didn’t score a single goal at even strength all season long, not the type of production they wanted from someone making nearly $3MM.  Parker Kelly was an effective penalty killer but scored one goal in 55 games.  Austin Watson and Dylan Gambrell had just 11 points apiece.  This is one area that can reasonably be improved.

The good news for Dorion is that there are some open roster spots to work with.  Joseph, Kastelic, and Kelly are signed while Pinto will be a restricted free agent.  From there, however, there are openings to fill with Watson, Gambrell, and deadline acquisition Patrick Brown all set to hit the open market while Julien Gauthier, another late-season add, is a restricted free agent but whose arbitration eligibility makes him a non-tender candidate.

Prospect Ridly Greig could fill one of those spots which would certainly give them a boost offensively although he could benefit from more time with AHL Belleville as well.  Recent signing Jiri Smejkal could be in the mix as well but might be it for internal options at this point.  That will leave at least a couple of spots for players currently outside the organization to try to make their mark.  There are often value contracts available for bottom-six forwards closer to training camp so this might be something that the Sens opt to slow-play.

Defensive Decisions

Dorion is going to be busy with his defense as well.  Jake Sanderson will be eligible for a contract extension in July and given that Ottawa has typically moved to sign their core pieces a year early where possible (Brady Tkachuk being the exception), it’s reasonable to think that they’ll do so here.  However, it could be difficult since he has just one NHL year under his belt.  It also remains to be seen if they’ll be able to afford another big-ticket deal on the books.  At a minimum, expect the team to initiate discussions on that front even if those talks don’t lead to the 20-year-old putting pen to paper on a deal.

Meanwhile, decisions need to be made regarding three other young rearguards.  Erik Brannstrom is once again a restricted free agent and this time, he’ll have arbitration eligibility.  When Vegas drafted him, the 23-year-old was regarded as a future offensive threat.  That could still happen but Brannstrom has just four goals in 190 career NHL appearances so far.  Is he still part of their future?

The answer to that question might be dependent on the answer to this next one.  Are Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson ready for full-time roster spots next season?  Both players were at least somewhat highly-touted prospects themselves but have yet to establish themselves at the NHL level.  However, they’re both eligible for waivers next season.  Are the Sens ready to pencil each of them onto the roster?  It’s unlikely they’ll make it back to Belleville so if they’re not comfortable with them being up full-time, one or both of those prospects could become trade candidates.

There’s a further domino effect as well that pertains to Travis Hamonic.  The pending unrestricted free agent has expressed a desire to return but what happens with the three youngsters will dictate whether that’s doable, assuming the two sides can also agree on what type of a dip in pay he’ll likely be heading for after making $3MM the last two seasons.  With free agency roughly six weeks away, they’ll need to make calls on these players fairly soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Conference Finals coverage with the Eastern Conference matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers.

The Southeast Division reigns supreme, just as we all thought.

After more than 25 years, these former divisional rivals will square up in their first-ever playoff matchup against each other, with higher stakes than anyone expected. Both teams are knocking on the door of their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in decades after building up to this moment for years.

Both teams have also overcome some long odds to get here but under different circumstances. Some had written off the Hurricanes entering their Second Round series against the New Jersey Devils, with injuries to three of their best scorers hampering their chances against a Devils team that had overcome a 2-0 series deficit against Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers.

Needless to say, it didn’t matter. The Hurricanes advanced thanks to a Game 5 overtime winner from Jesper Fast, a testament to the depth that’s stepped up and gotten them this far.

The Panthers, on the other hand, finished 17th in the NHL during the regular season and rattled off seven-game and five-game series wins against two of the best teams in the league. It’s thanks largely in part to netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s overcome playoff demons past and is, out of nowhere, earning his keep as a $10MM goalie.

Can Florida’s Cinderella run continue and get them back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history?

Regular Season Performance

Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 9, 2022: Carolina 0, Florida 3
December 30, 2022: Florida 0, Carolina 4
April 13, 2023: Carolina 6, Florida 4

Carolina takes season series 2-1-0

Team Storylines

The question for Carolina is simple: can their depth, namely Fast, Jordan Martinook, and Stefan Noesen, keep showing up?

Their job should be made easier, as Teuvo Teräväinen is expected to return to the team after missing most of the playoffs with a broken hand. But Martinook’s 10 points in 11 games and Fast’s eight points in 11 games are near the team lead and ahead of other expected leading scorers like Martin Necas.

That’ll be their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final against a Florida team loaded with more consistently potent names, like Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe, in their top six. It’ll also be tough to contend with the fact that Florida’s three leading goal-scorers among forwards in the playoffs (Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart) are spread out on three different lines.

Both teams are set in the crease. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta have played very well for Carolina, but Andersen’s pulled ahead with a 5-0 record and .931 save percentage after Raanta exited the lineup due to illness. Bobrovsky may have surpassed Tkachuk in Panthers Conn Smythe candidates after his performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, limiting the Toronto attack to two goals in each game.

There are plenty of personnel storylines to go around in this series as well. Not only will it feature all three active Staal brothers in the NHL, but it also features a showdown between Carolina’s Cup-winning captain Rod Brind’Amour and former teammate Eric Staal, who now attempts to upset his former coach and help boost Florida into the Final.

Prediction

Carolina is the more experienced and better-coached team in this series. They’ve overcome multiple question marks after another triple-digit point total in the regular season to get where they are now.

They’ve had plenty of tough lessons to learn from past mistakes, but so have the Panthers after a handful of recent early eliminations. They’re also both even in most matchup categories and boast similarly aggressive styles of play.

It makes this series one of the hardest to predict of the entire postseason. Both teams have knocked off 110+ point opponents with relative ease. Where Carolina pulls away is behind the bench, however, and it could be the deciding factor in what should be a lengthy series.

Prediction: Hurricanes win in seven games.

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