Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

PHR Mailbag: Predators, Predictions, Toews, Worst Contracts, Coyotes, Wild

December 25, 2022 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 9 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what it might cost Boston to add a key rental center, the worst contracts in the NHL by position, Arizona’s trade deadline situation, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s mailbag.

Gbear: Easy one here: The Preds offense from their forward group is dreadful. Do you see Poile making any moves to add scoring help or is it the same old story in Nashville?

I think it’s the same old story for the Predators. They have a veteran-laden team that isn’t good enough to truly be a contender nor are they bad enough to have justification for blowing it all up. Quite frankly, even if they wanted to blow it up, I don’t think they could as moving money in this cap environment is very tough. There are some bloated contracts that don’t have a lot of trade value at the moment.

There was some risk in Nashville’s offseason moves in that it suggested they felt last year’s offensive production was repeatable. I doubt many others saw it the same way. I won’t criticize GM David Poile for the moves he did make (getting Ryan McDonagh for next to nothing and signing Nino Niederreiter) because it didn’t really cost them anything in assets. All in all, they were relatively low-risk even with McDonagh’s contract.

But those moves cemented that their goal seemed to be squeaking into the playoffs and see what happens from there. And, let’s face it, you don’t have to look very far to find a team that squeaked into the postseason and made it all the way to the Cup Final. It’s not necessarily a viable strategy but it works enough that some teams want to try it with the odd one going on a run.

So, with that in mind, I don’t see many big changes coming one way or the other. They’re six points out but have games in hand on almost everyone ahead of them. Knowing where they are, any improvements are likely to be low-risk, low-cost incremental ones; if they didn’t commit to big upgrades last summer, they’re not doing it now. On the seller side, they’re not exactly loaded with expiring deals that other teams are going to want in early March. I suspect they’ll wait things out for a while and then take a tiny step whether it’s as a buyer or seller. Nothing too exciting, I know, but I don’t see any big splash on the horizon for them.

The Duke: All-knowing, -seeing and -prognosticating Snow Globe (hey, it’s Christmastime), please soothsay the following: 1. Long-term, UPL, Portillo, or Levi? 2. Where does Tarasenko land – and in this season or next? 3. Brighter scoring future: Ruzicka, Holtz, or Kent Johnson? BONUS Q: What season does Askarov arrive in Smashville? Merry Christmas – and Happy New Year!

I don’t know why but I feel a bit more shaken up than usual following this question…

1) Assuming you mean who the long-term starter in Buffalo is going to be, let’s go with Devon Levi if I have to pick one of those three. I think Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen can be a capable NHL goalie but he might be more of a platoon option than a true starter. Erik Portillo is no guarantee to sign with the Sabres so it’s hard to pick him for this question either. Levi might be more of a platoon option himself (if he and Luukkonen form a serviceable tandem, that could work out great for Buffalo) but at this point, I’d say he has the best long-term upside for the Sabres so he gets the nod by default.

2) The unstated question here is will the Blues want to sell? If they don’t, I don’t think Tarasenko moves this season. That call won’t be made for at least six more weeks but if they keep playing at this level, I’ll say they will sell and thus, he will move this season. I know the Rangers seem to be the expected landing spot for Patrick Kane but if they want to do a move that doesn’t necessarily require double retention, this might be the one. Plus, for some reason, I can hear Sam Rosen calling “Vladimir Tarasenko – It’s a Power Play Goal!” in my head and it sounds fitting. Let’s go with Tarasenko to the Rangers at the deadline.

3) I’ll take Alexander Holtz. This year has been a complete write-off and I’m not at all a fan of how the Devils have handled him. Scorers need to score and sitting a top prospect for numerous games in between playing him on the fourth line isn’t helping anyone. However, he’s the one player on this list who still has top-line upside in my books (Johnson is more of a second liner and Ruzicka is still trying to become a full-fledged regular) so that gives him the nod.

Bonus) 2024-25. That’s Juuse Saros’ final year under contract and the Predators will want to know if Yaroslav Askarov is ready to be a starter so quickly, whether he’s more of a backup at that point, or if he’s an NHL goalie altogether. Right now, he needs as many games as possible so I don’t think they’ll want him up (barring injuries) this season or next.

@dajc: What do you think it’s going to take to get Jonathan Toews into a Bruin jersey?

When I first saw this question, I questioned if strengthening a fairly strong spot would be Boston’s best course of action. However, if Toews was anchoring a two-way checking line in the playoffs, that would give them a huge boost. Making it work, however, will be a bit tricky.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way first. They will need a third team to retain so that they’re only taking on 25% of Toews’ $10.5MM AAV. If we look back at the few examples of those types of deals, you’re probably looking at a third-rounder, maybe a second if there were a few teams with similar offers on the table. What works in Boston’s favor here is that Toews only has a base salary of $2.9MM so the actual cash outlay for the third team that they’re trying to incentivize to retain would be fairly minimal but they will have to part with a decent draft pick to get their cap charge down to $2.625MM.

As for what they’d need to send to Chicago, it’s likely to involve a first-round pick. Toews isn’t the top center he once was but he still has 11 goals this season, is simply elite at the faceoff dot (65.6%), and can play in all situations. Moving someone like Craig Smith solves the cap issue; they’d actually free up some cap space even by throwing him in. I think there’s a secondary element that needs to go in there as well, a decent prospect. Marc McLaughlin comes to mind as a near NHL-ready center that they might want to target. Boston might not want to move him but they’ll need to incentivize Chicago to take Smith’s contract.

The good news for the Bruins here is that the rental center market is deeper than usual so Toews shouldn’t command the top return. That should be Bo Horvat as things stand barring a late change of heart in Vancouver (which could very well happen). But Boston won’t get Toews for cheap either but a package of a first-rounder, Smith, McLaughlin, and a third-rounder (to a third team) might be enough, particularly if that’s where Toews indicates he wants to go. Like Claude Giroux last season with the Flyers, his preferred destination(s) will largely dictate which Chicago can or can’t get for him.

Nha Trang: Okay, I actually do have a question, I fibbed: who would you tab as the worst regular players in the league in terms of value to salary at forward, defense and goal? (Not counting LTIR types — obviously Montreal’s got the short end of the stick with Price there.)

First, thanks for the kind words that preceded your question from the callout for questions.

Forward: Tyler Seguin – Dallas committed franchise player money to Seguin, a player who hasn’t averaged over a point per game since 2015-16. He’s still a capable player but he is more of a second liner at this point of his career and by the time this contract ends, he’ll probably be lower on the depth chart. He has four years left after this one at $9.85MM and as Dallas looks to try to retain and enhance its core, this is the type of contract that will make doing that considerably more difficult.

Defense: Marc-Edouard Vlasic – His deal certainly isn’t the priciest (he’s tied for 24th among AAVs for blueliners) but it has been a few years since he has been the true shutdown defender he was in his prime. Frankly, it has been a few years since he has been much more than a replacement-level rearguard. He turns 36 in March and still has three years left at $7MM per season. That’s not good when his play has gone downhill in a hurry. There are other more expensive veterans on bad deals, sure, but those players are least still providing some on-ice value. I don’t think Vlasic will be anytime soon.

Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky – He’s the second-highest-paid goalie in NHL history behind Carey Price. For that, the Panthers were expecting to get high-end goaltending, the type that you can rely on to carry you to big things. Well, this season, Bobrovsky is below-average in GAA and SV%. If he was making $2MM, that would be one thing. But he’s not making $2MM. He’s making $10MM this season and for three years after that. Spencer Knight is close to taking away the number one job and when that happens, Florida will have an untradeable backup that makes more money than what the majority of the league is spending on their goalie tandems.

Coyotes1: Hello, who do you think the Arizona Coyotes will try to acquire? Like Mike Reilly, Nikita Zaitsev, and Philippe Myers, are there any others that come to mind? What can they get for Shayne Gostisbehere, Nick Bjugstad, and Nick Ritchie? Thank you and have a good day!!

Of the three possible acquisitions you listed, only Reilly fits for me this season. Zaitsev has a $2MM signing bonus due in the summer, then he might be on their radar. I don’t see Tampa Bay moving Myers since they extended him after acquiring him; he fits in their future plans at a much lower price tag.

As for who else could be on their radar, Tyler Myers is an option next summer when his $5MM bonus is paid off. Marco Scandella next season would be an option as well although the Blues will likely hold onto him this year and use his LTIR. I like Kasperi Kapanen as a target for them as a possible buy low, sell high(ish) type of move while his speed fits in with how they’re trying to play now. If Dallas wants to make a splash and Denis Gurianov is back from his personal leave, that might be an option as well. I could see their activity this season being more in the third-party facilitator type rather than adding a specific player.

I’m going to change the order of your trade candidates around a little bit. Bjugstad’s value is minimal as he’s a 12th or 13th forward that isn’t a specialist. Those players go for late-round picks if they move at all. Ritchie’s value might be a bit better but at $2.5MM and his track record of inconsistency, he’s the type of player a team might pivot to if everything else falls through and tosses them a mid-round pick. Gostisbehere is the interesting one. Assuming the Coyotes retain 50% here, I could see them getting a second-rounder. Considering they were paid a second-rounder to take him off Philadelphia’s hands, flipping him for another second would be a nice piece of business for GM Bill Armstrong.

Zakis: With the Wild in no man’s land, do they buy, sell, or stand pat at the trade deadline? They seemingly have no long-term direction.

I wouldn’t necessarily say they’re in no man’s land. They’re three points out of second in the division with a game in hand. Sure, they’re not in top contention but I’d put a team like Nashville in no man’s land territory, not Minnesota. As for their direction, they’re trying to win now despite carrying more than $12MM in dead money with their buyouts. When you’re a team that’s essentially spending closer to the cap floor on actual players, it’s hard to be dominant.

I expect they are going to buy and sell. If they can’t afford to re-sign Mathew Dumba, then they’d be wise to try to move him. I expect such a move would be coupled with a second swap to bring in a longer-term replacement on the back end as losing a key blueliner for nothing is hardly ideal. I also expect them to try to shore up their depth at a minimum and as a playoff team that has banked a lot of cap space, they will have plenty more options than some of their competitors. Those additions will almost certainly need to be limited to rentals, however.

Speaking of that cap space, what they have makes them a team to watch for. If someone wants to strike early, they’ll need to have the cap room to do so. Many playoff teams don’t but the Wild do. If GM Bill Guerin wants to strike, he can do it pretty much right away. I’m curious to see if they look to get a jump on the trade market as a result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Left Wingers

December 25, 2022 at 3:10 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu 3 Comments

With the new year fast approaching, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Andrei Kuzmenko, Vancouver Canucks

The second-straight Canuck to headline free agency stock watch, Kuzmenko is not your traditional candidate to be a top-of-his-position-group free agent. But he certainly has the numbers to back up his case.

After a lengthy courting process this summer, the Canucks signed Kuzmenko to a one-year, $925K deal out of the KHL’s SKA St. Petersburg. Kuzmenko scored 53 points in 45 games in the KHL, and while the inevitable questions of whether his KHL numbers would translate persisted, he has silenced them so far this year.

Kuzmenko has been a rare bright spot in a Vancouver market that hasn’t had much fun in 2022-23, scoring 14 goals and 29 points in 32 games.

Kuzmenko has helped the Canucks’ power play convert on 26.6% of its opportunities on the man advantage, which ranks inside the league’s top ten.

But complicating the good vibes surrounding Kuzmenko’s success has been the potential contract standoff that looms. After re-signing J.T. Miller to a seven-year, $8MM AAV extension, the Canuckks have seemingly made re-organizing their cap balance sheet a priority.

That raises some questions. Do the Canucks have the financial bandwidth to compete with the many bidders Kuzmenko is likely to attract? If the Canucks want to retain Kuzmenko, does the cost of his extension necessitate trading Brock Boeser, even if his $6.65MM cap hit means the team’s received return in any deal could be a fraction of Boeser’s on-ice value?

The months leading up to the opening of free agency won’t be easy ones for Canucks management. Kuzmenko’s stock is soaring, and while the Canucks are reaping the benefits at the moment, it’s possible that his play is pricing him out of a long-term extension to stay in British Columbia.

Max Pacioretty, Carolina Hurricanes

While Pacioretty has 850 games of NHL experience under his belt, his trip to free agency next summer has the potential to be just as complicated as Kuzmenko’s. Why? because Pacioretty has yet to take the ice this season and make his Hurricanes debut.

Pacioretty underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles this summer, and that has kept him from meaningfully altering his stock through his on-ice play. What could potentially threaten Pacioretty’s earning potential, beyond just not scoring much upon his return from injury, is what his trade from the Golden Knights said about his leaguewide value.

The extreme constraints some teams were feeling under the salary cap over the Summer was no secret, but the difficulties of the flat cap were made clear when Pacioretty, a six-time 30-goal scorer on an expiring contract, was dealt with a young defenseman in Dylan Coghlan for future considerations.

The Golden Knights seemingly did not value Pacioretty at his $7MM cap hit, and were so eager to clear his hit from their books that they parted with Coghlan in order to facilitate a deal, receiving nothing but cap flexibility in return.

If Pacioretty is seeking to avoid taking a pay cut this summer on a long-term deal, that trade likely didn’t help matters. His injury, by no fault of his own, only added to that declining stock.

A strong performance in Carolina, including maybe even a productive deep playoff run, could do wonders to rehabilitate Pacioretty’s stock before he hits free agency. But at this point, with his capabilities upon his return to the ice still a mystery, Pacioretty may be the biggest question mark of the entire upcoming free agent class.

The Solid Contributors

Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings

Speaking of question marks, Bertuzzi has, like Pacioretty, also dealt with his fair share of availability-related issues recently. Bertuzzi underwent back surgery in 2021 and recently underwent surgery once again.

He’s been limited to just nine games played this season, and has scored four points. Last year, though, Bertuzzi posted excellent production, ranking second on the Red Wings in points with 30 goals and 62 points in 68 games.

That version of Bertuzzi was in line to get paid. The hard-nosed winger plays the sort of agitating, skill-and-sandpaper game that GMs across the league greatly covet, and when adding his near point-per-game production to the mix, he was lining himself up for a massive payday.

His health issues have now complicated that and meant that his stock is trending down. He still has time to return to the ice and play well for a Red Wings team that looks poised to remain in the playoff hunt.

He’ll be 28 when free agency opens, meaning he represents a relatively young investment compared to the glut of in-their-thirties free agents that typically populate the market.

But until his health issues are put behind him and he returns to playing his valuable, unique (if sometimes controversial) style of game, his stock must be considered to be on the decline.

Michael Bunting, Toronto Maple Leafs

When Bunting hit unrestricted free agency two years ago, he wasn’t without teams interested in securing his services. Coming off of an impressive 21-game showing with the Arizona Coyotes, where he scored 10 goals in 21 games, Bunting could maybe have cultivated a small bidding war and simply taken the most lucrative (likely one-year) contract he was offered.

But instead of taking that route, the Scarborough, Ontario native prioritized fit, and with Zach Hyman set to exit Toronto, he chose to sign a two-year, $950k deal. Presumably, that contract offer was selected with the possibility of playing as the third wheel on Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner’s line in mind.

In 2021-22, Bunting was indeed placed on that line, and he promptly scored 23 goals and 63 points. This year has been more of the same, as Bunting has remained one of the league’s most valuable non-ELC players on a cost-per-point basis, scoring 24 points in 34 games.

Bunting, whose Toronto tenure has established his ability to not only help more skilled players shine, but also produce well without a featured power play role, has lined himself up for a solid free agent payday.

While the ever-so-slight downturn in production (he scored 63 points last year and is scoring at a 58-point pace this year) may seem notable to some, Bunting’s stock is most definitely on the rise as he’s adding another productive season to his resume while remaining a valuable contributor to what looks to be another Maple Leafs regular-season juggernaut.

Jason Zucker, Pittsburgh Penguins

Of all the players already listed and still to come, Zucker’s stock may have shot up the most since the start of 2022-23.

His health issues seemingly behind him, Zucker has scored 21 points in 29 games so far this year.

Zucker’s leaguewide reputation as a capable if relatively unexciting second-line scorer, a reputation he once enjoyed before it was eroded by an injury-plagued Penguins tenure, is seemingly on the path to being restored.

While some might quibble that Zucker’s issues on the defensive side of the ice should diminish his case for a hefty free-agent contract, Zucker will be 31 when free agency opens and has a shot to cross the 50-point plateau for the first time since 2017-18.

Well-liked veterans with those numbers don’t leave the free agent market empty-handed.

James Van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia Flyers

While the Flyers’ season has gone a bit off the rails since a promising start, Van Riemsdyk’s re-integration into their lineup after finger surgery in October has gone swimmingly.

Van Riemsdyk has 13 points in 15 games, meaning just four points separate him from the Flyers’ top-five scorers despite that limited sample size. For years one of the league’s premier net-front specialists, it seems Van Riemsdyk is still a capable scoring-line forward at the age of 33.

He’ll be 34 when free agency opens, and although his scoring rate is likely to slow down a bit he’ll likely be an attractive short-term piece for a contender. Even if his scoring slows down as we get deeper into the season, his stock is definitely up from where it was last season, when he scored a still-solid 24 goals and 38 points in 82 games.

Tomas Tatar, New Jersey Devils

After scoring 30 points in 50 games two years ago in his free agency platform season, the contract Tatar ultimately signed (a two-year, $4.5MM AAV pact with New Jersey) may have been a bit lighter than some expected. The Slovak forward had scored 61 points in 68 games the year before, and was considered a quality top-six piece.

Tatar’s time as a healthy scratch for most of his Canadiens’ run to the 2021 Stanley Cup final may have contributed to his more lukewarm-than-anticipated market, although if the Devils end up qualifying this spring he’ll have an opportunity to put together a productive postseason run.

Tatar has scored nine goals and 19 points in 34 games, which puts him at a 46-point 82-game pace. He scored 15 goals and 30 points in his debut season as a Devil, so his improved production would indicate his stock is up in advance of what could be another free agent trip.

He’s the sort of player who could really solidify a strong position on the market if he can finally have a productive playoff run.

Pavel Zacha, Boston Bruins

Zacha, 25, has long been seen as an underachieving player who has quite a bit more upside left to be unlocked. Ever since he was drafted sixth overall in 2015, high expectations have been placed on Zacha’s shoulders, and he hasn’t yet lived up to them.

This year has been a step in the right direction, though. Since being traded to a Bruins team that currently looks unstoppable, Zacha has scored 20 points in 33 games, a 50-point pace. He’s done so despite a shooting percentage of just 5.5%, a significant decline from his career 10.7 shooting percentage.

If Zacha can add some more goals and see his puck luck improve to something a bit less dire, he could reach a new level of production and value. He’ll have just recently turned 26 if he hits the open market next year, and if he can have a productive playoff run, he could set himself up for a major payday.

While he may remain an underwhelming player given his high draft slot in what has looked like a historic 2015 first round, he has undoubtedly raised his stock this year and set himself up to earn a pretty penny if he can keep up his current play.

Zach Parise, New York Islanders

Parise, who will be 39 this next summer, continues to defy father time as a steady and productive goal scorer for the Islanders. After being bought out by the Minnesota Wild, Parise signed a cheap, league-minimum deal with the New York Islanders, brokered by the GM of his former team, Lou Lamoriello.

Parise, largely playing with franchise face Mathew Barzal, scored 15 goals and 35 points. He may not have been the elite first-line running mate Islanders fans wanted, but he was solid nonetheless. He signed another bargain-bin extension to remain on the Island this summer and has scored at a 26-goal, 40-point pace.

The hefty buyout from the Minnesota Wild attached to him, along with the contracts he’s received for the past two seasons indicates that he’s unlikely to be looking for a major free-agent cash-in. Instead, he seems to have prioritized fit, and as long as he feels a desire to keep playing, his scoring numbers will earn him another deal from the Islanders.

The Role Players

Marcus Johansson, Washington Capitals

The Capitals signed Johansson, a familiar face, to a one-year, $1.1MM deal this summer, coming off of a somewhat unremarkable showing for the team that spring. After being acquired from the Seattle Kraken, Johansson scored six points in 18 games.

He was brought back in the summer in large part due to the organization’s familiarity with him and they valued the versatility, reliability, and stability he could bring to their forward corps.

This year, Johansson has gotten a major power play role and has scored 16 points in 36 games, in large part thanks to the offensive opportunity he’s been afforded by coach Peter Laviolette. That’s a 37-point pace, and if he manages to finish in the 35-40 point range going into his free agency he could attract some interest outside of Washington.

While Johansson isn’t going to be a fit for a team looking for a depth signing that brings defensive fortitude, this year he’s shown that he can still contribute at the NHL level, and his performance should earn him some looks as a 32-year-old free agent.

Nick Foligno, Boston Bruins

After he received a contract worth $3.8MM against the cap with a two-year term, Bruins fans could not be blamed for expecting more from Foligno in his first year in Beantown.

The former Columbus Blue Jackets captain scored just two goals and 13 points in an injury-limited 64-game campaign, and his lone assist in the team’s seven-game playoff series loss to the Carolina Hurricanes only added to the buyer’s remorse.

The Bruins chose to retain Foligno at his cap hit for this season, and he has rewarded them with improved play. He has scored 16 points in 33 games, a 40-point pace, and he has done so despite skating just over 12 minutes per night.

While Foligno’s first season in Boston and failures as a Toronto Maple Leaf may give some teams pause next summer, his stock is firmly trending up from where it was last season.

Alexander Kerfoot, Toronto Maple Leafs

Kerfoot, a Maple Leaf for the past few seasons, is a curious case. He’s got loads of offensive skill and managed to score 51 points last season.

While the bottom fell out of his production in the playoffs, as he scored just two points in the team’s difficult seven-game loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, he was a mid-twenties 50-point player capable of playing the wing or center in a pinch. Those are players that don’t grow on trees.

And yet this season, the decline that was hinted at in the playoffs has fully set in. Kerfoot’s production has declined, as he is scoring at just a 36-point pace, and even more time on the power play than last year hasn’t caused an uptick in points production.

While points are far from the only metric teams will use to determine the value of a player, it can be valuable to use points to serve as a baseline guiding light when appraising the value of offensive players. While Kerfoot does see time on the Maple Leafs penalty kill, the 51 points he scored last year were undoubtedly the most attractive component of his resume.

With that decline in production and no truly meaningful improvement to his all-around role to make up for it comes a decline in his stock heading into his trip to unrestricted free agency.

Nick Ritchie, Arizona Coyotes

Exiled from the Maple Leafs after their roll of the dice on him failed to pay dividends, Ritchie has carved out a nice role away from the bright lights of one of hockey’s biggest markets.

In Arizona, Ritchie scored 10 goals and 14 points in 24 games after arriving there via trade, and this season he has seven goals and 13 points in 26 games. While the days of Ritchie being a top prospect are long gone, he’s turned himself into a viable shoot-first third-liner who brings some size to his line.

He’ll be a 27-year-old free agent, and while the Coyotes may have some interest in continuing their mutually-beneficial partnership, the scoring winger is likely to receive interest from elsewhere as well.

Sonny Milano, Washington Capitals

One of the more curious cases of this past summer’s free agent class, Milano was non-tendered by the Anaheim Ducks and lingered far longer on the open market than many fans likely had anticipated he would.

After scoring 14 goals and 34 points in 66 games, many were hoping their team would add the 26-year-old 2014 first-round pick as a down-the-lineup scoring forward.

What observers may have perhaps underestimated, though, was just how negatively Milano’s all-around game could have been rated leaguewide. Never a defensive player, the failure of Milano’s PTO agreement with the Flames only made questions about his commitment to defense and the all-around game louder.

He signed a league-minimum one-year deal with the Washington Capitals, and after being called up to the main team he hasn’t looked back. He has scored 16 points in 23 games, often playing with some of the Capitals’ more established offensive talents, like Evgeny Kuznetsov.

While Milano remains the type of player whose defensive warts likely merit some sheltering from his coach, points are points and if Milano can keep up this red-hot start to his Capitals tenure, he should have an easier trip to the open market than he had last season.

Miles Wood, New Jersey Devils

The depth of next summer’s class of potential free agent left wingers has enviable depth. There are players like Milano, who brings offensive flair at a cheap price, and then there are players like Wood, who outside of some bursts of goal-scoring isn’t really valued for his production.

Wood, one of the faster players in hockey, is valued for his leadership ability, physical contributions, and abilities along the boards. Wood is part of a Devils fourth line that, when healthy, plays a fast, chaotic style that can give opposing teams fits on the forecheck.

He’ll be just 27 years old when he hits the market and could draw significant interest from teams looking to re-create that Devils fourth line. If he can play well under the bright lights of a possible Devils playoff run, he could have quite a few suitors if he hits the open market.

Adam Erne, Detroit Red Wings

Erne’s free agency case is relatively straightforward. Erne, who followed GM Steve Yzerman from Tampa Bay to Detroit, is valued by coaches for what he brings away from the puck rather than with the puck on his stick.

The former QMJHL star contributes to the Red Wings’ second penalty-killing unit, scores at a respectable clip (13 points in 32 games), is able to play almost anywhere in the lineup in a pinch, and will be 28 when he hits the open market.

That’s an attractive all-around package of skills, even if it’s not one that’s as rare as what some of his fellow free agents bring to the table.

While his overall talent level hasn’t changed very much, and his free agent stock remains largely steady as a result, the increased role Erne has played in Detroit in response to the team’s rash of injuries has meant his offensive production has ticked up from where it was last year.

He’s on pace to score 33 points, which would be quite a ways past his career-high of 2o. While his ability to play a quality supporting role on a Red Wings team that has been competitive so far this year should be what earns him the most looks on the open market, his increased offensive opportunity (and his shooting percentage going up from 5.6% to 16.1%) will help his stock trend up.

Andrew Cogliano, Colorado Avalanche

Cogliano, a veteran of 1,170 NHL games, has a clearly defined role in Colorado. He’s tasked with being a go-to penalty killer, a defensive specialist, and a valuable locker room voice. Any offensive production on top of that is just an added bonus.

While the 35-year-old is out of the lineup with an injury at the moment, his play so far this year has been solid, keeping his stock in a steady place. He’s earning $1.25MM against the cap, and as he ages that number is far more likely to go down rather than up.

But if Cogliano can continue to play well in his role for the defending Stanley Cup champions, he’ll undoubtedly earn another contract this summer.

Others Of Note

Matt Nieto, San Jose Sharks

The Sharks don’t have a highly competitive forward lineup, meaning Nieto has gotten a larger opportunity than he’d likely receive elsewhere. The 601-game veteran has responded well. On the offensive side of the ice, Nieto has scored 12 points in 31 games, an increase from the 17 points in 70 games he scored last year.

More impressively, Nieto is playing the most minutes of any Sharks forward on the penalty kill. The results of his heavy workload? He has helped lead his team to the top of the NHL’s penalty-kill rankings.

The 30-year-old has been skating in a bigger role than ever before in his NHL career, and while the Sharks have faltered, he’s thrived.

Andreas Athanasiou, Chicago Blackhawks

Athanasiou signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Blackhawks in the offseason, an identical deal to the one Max Domi signed. Like Domi, Athanasiou likely agreed to the contract with the hope that playing next to Patrick Kane, a play-driving offensive force, would boost his numbers and land him a fatter contract the next summer.

While Domi has thrived to a certain degree, Athanasiou hasn’t been great. He has just 10 points in 31 games, and while seven of those are goals his failure to fully fit with Domi and Kane has seen him move down in the lineup.

A player with blazing speed and tantalizing one-on-one skills, Athanasiou has never quite been able to play consistently with linemates as part of a three-player unit. The best offensive players are able to leverage their position as part of a group of players in order to create scoring changes. That’s something Athanasiou has struggled with immensely this year and has been a challenge for him in the past.

While there’s still room for him to bounce back, his stock is down so far this year, and whether he receives much interest on the trade market later this year will be telling as to how he’s valued leaguewide.

Evgenii Dadonov, Montreal Canadiens

After landing in Montreal as part of a cap-clearing offseason trade, Dadonov likely had the hope that he’d soak up prime offensive opportunities on a rebuilding team, stack some points, and be traded to a contender mid-season. If that were to happen, he’d in all likelihood have placed himself in a solid position to earn a new contract.

Unfortunately, Dadonov’s tenure in Montreal has gone wildly off the rails. The former 70-point scorer had moments of brilliance last season and finished with 20 goals and 43 points. After 28 games this year, Dadonov is on pace to score around 20 points.

Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis has tried to squeeze some value out of the 33-year-old veteran in lots of different ways, including even giving him penalty-killing looks, but none of his attempts have worked.

After a season where Dadonov played exceptionally well in stretches, his stock has declined sharply in Montreal.

Picture courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Toronto Maple Leafs

December 25, 2022 at 11:21 am CDT | by John Gilroy 6 Comments

As we approach the end of the year, PHR continues its look at what teams are thankful for in 2022-23. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Who are the Maple Leafs thankful for?

Mitch Marner

As special as Marner’s 23-game point streak was for both player and team, it represented something just as important to Toronto’s season: consistency. As other players went hot and cold or went down with injury, Marner continued to produce night in and night out.

The winger has arguably been the team’s MVP thus far, even with Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares all having fantastic season thus far. Marner’s 40 points are good enough to lead the team, just one ahead of Matthews and Nylander. Not only is Marner playing a key role in the team’s superb offensive output, but he’s one of not only the team’s, but the league’s best two-way forwards, playing a key role on the penalty kill and late in games.

Perhaps the most interesting statistic that shows just how vital of a role Marner plays is time-on-ice. Marner, a right wing, is second on the team in average time-on-ice, behind only Morgan Rielly, who’s currently injured. The next closest forward on the list is Matthews, who’s 20:19 average time-on-ice is over a full minute less than Marner at 21:23.

Sure, Brendan Shanahan, Kyle Dubas, and the front office built this team and Sheldon Keefe coaches it. Tavares is the captain and locker room leader while still being one of the team’s superstars. Nylander is enjoying a career year and the possibility of a 50 goal season. And yes, Matthews scores goals at a historic rate, but this year it’s been the consistent, steady play of Marner that Toronto is most thankful for. In a season of some ups and more than a few downs, the Maple Leafs may just be having their best campaign under this group, and now it seems to be Marner leading them all.

What are the Maple Leafs thankful for?

Depth, depth, and more depth.

It’s Christmas Day, the Maple Leafs have played 34 games and thus far, they’ve dressed a whopping 12 defensemen in games this season. That’s enough for their opening night lineup, plus an entire second unit too. Now, add to that their goaltenders. The team has only had three goaltenders play in games for them this season, not unusual, but all three have played in double-digit games.

With all of these injuries added onto a slow start, nobody would blame the Maple Leafs for being on the fringes of the playoff picture. But instead, Toronto sits comfortably in second place in the Atlantic Division, behind only the Boston Bruins, who are enjoying what can only be described as a historic start to their season. So, what’s going right?

The depth the Maple Leafs have put forward this season has been, in a word, impeccable. When both halves of the intended goaltending duo of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov went down with injury earlier this year, The Maple Leafs rested their hopes on Erik Kallgren to carry the load in net. Kallgren’s numbers this season aren’t going to win him the Vezina Trophy, but his .898 save-percentage and 2.67 goals-against average have been enough to keep the team in games, arguably their most important ones of the season. Notably, Kallgren was forced into the full-time starter’s role for a brief period, just as the team was fighting to regain itself as a winner, recently losing four straight on their west coast road trip.

On the blueline, only Justin Holl and Mark Giordano have played in every game this season, Rasmus Sandin closely behind with 33, but after those three, the next closest is Timothy Liljegren at 23. The three who were expected to make up the most important Leafs defensemen, Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and T.J. Brodie, have all missed fairly significant time, Muzzin unlikely to return this season. Mac Hollowell and Filip Kral have been solid when called upon, and Jordie Benn’s presence as a veteran shutdown defenseman has been impactful.

Amid the rapid loss of defensemen, Toronto was forced to make a trade and acquired Conor Timmins from the Arizona Coyotes. Always highly-regarded, but just as frequently injured, Timmins has struggled to become an NHL regular for that reason. Since making his Maple Leafs debut earlier this month, Timmins has flourished, recording six assists in eight games, chipping in strong defense.

Of course, the organization will want to have it’s key pieces healthy and performing as expected, but in their absence, the next man up has been more than ready for action this season in Toronto and the ultimate success of this team will have to give large credit to this group of players.

What would the Maple Leafs be even more thankful for?

Health

We’ve just discussed the impact that Toronto’s depth additions have had on the team, such as Kallgren and Timmins and though the organization is happy to have them there, and perhaps give them a bigger role going forward, having their marquee players healthy and in the lineup would be just that much better.

The biggest injury in nature appears to go to Muzzin, who is likely done for the season. There, the health of the person is of primary importance and at this point, the Maple Leafs will likely consider how they can replace him, at least for the remainder of this season, with his $5.625MM cap hit on LTIR.

In terms of players who can come back, Rielly has been out since November 21st and while a return doesn’t appear to be imminent, there is hope the star defenseman will be back relatively shortly. Injured recently, Sandin and his status beyond being placed on IR is unknown, but having the young defenseman return would still change the dynamic of the blueline. Beyond them, returning defenseman Victor Mete and forward Nicholas Robertson to the lineup, when possible, would simply continue to add to the overall depth the team has available.

A healthy team isn’t just the players on IR returning to the lineup, but also consists of keeping the rest of the team healthy. As strong and as plentiful as the depth has been this year, it’s not endless. Furthermore, Toronto has been lucky that, with the exception of Reilly, injuries largely haven’t affected their elite players. Even losing just one of their big four of forwards for a long stretch could have a devastating effect on the season going forward.

What should be on the Maple Leafs’ holiday wishlist?

A secondary scorer

With Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares, complimented by Michael Bunting and Alexander Kerfoot, it would seem counter-intuitive to add another offensive-minded forward to the mix here, especially with injuries to the defensemen. To address the defense first, Rielly should hopefully return soon and the team will cross its fingers for a positive update on Sandin, but having both back solves many issues. Replacing Muzzin would make sense, but given the play of Benn and Timmins, it might not be necessary, at least not right now.

Up front, losing any of the big four would be drastic and though none of the four would be considered injury prone, nothing is guaranteed. Also consider the saturation of their production, the group primarily placed in the top-six and the first powerplay unit. If something goes wrong on the injury or production front, the rest of the team will have to step up and as talented as that group is, they aren’t so adept at getting the puck past the goaltender.

Toronto doesn’t necessarily need to go out and grab Patrick Kane at this year’s deadline, but a solid third-line option could do the trick, and at a relatively affordable price too. Sticking with Chicago, both Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou are UFA’s at season’s end and both have a history of offensive production. Alternatively, a reunion with former Leafs winger James van Riemsdyk could be in the books, assuming the Flyers are willing to retain salary, which they appear to be.

If Toronto does prefer to add defense, or needs two for the price of one so to speak, perhaps adding a dynamic offensive defenseman, like Shayne Gostisbehere from the Arizona Coyotes could be in the works. With 24 points this season in 32 games, Gostisbehere would give the team the offensive boost it needs while also serving as additional defensive depth and filling the void created by Muzzin’s injury.

PHR Panel: Trade Market Memories (Part 2)

December 24, 2022 at 6:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

The year is almost up and NHL teams are taking breaks to spend time with their families before the second-half grind begins in earnest. Once the calendar turns to 2023, trade chatter will start again, and the push to the playoffs will begin. A break is time for reflection, and over this weekend we will be looking back with one of our favorite features: the PHR Panel.

In the spirit of the holidays, we have a special treat for the PHR community. Three of our former writers have joined in to give us their thoughts on what has been an incredible year of hockey. Welcome back Zach Leach, Holger Stolzenberg, and Nate Brown! Because we have the whole family back together, we’ll split each panel into two parts.

Now on to the meat of the thing. Our question today is simple:

What is the most memorable trade of 2022?

Holger Stolzenberg

Carolina Hurricanes Acquire Max Pacioretty

While the Jack Eichel trade stands out, the return wasn’t much of a surprise. What stood out in my mind, however, was the consequences of the trade for Vegas, who suddenly was way over the cap with no end in sight to be able to fix it. That led to the Max Pacioretty trade in the offseason in which Vegas sent the veteran forward and his $7MM contract to Carolina along with defenseman Dylan Coughlan for future considerations.

What I remember most of that is the beating that Vegas took in the press for the transaction, being forced to move a top forward for nothing. And while I agree that the Golden Knights should never have put themselves into that position, I think moving Pacioretty, who almost immediately suffered a significant injury, made plenty of sense.

Pacioretty, while productive, could never stay healthy and was costing the team a fortune. While he could help Carolina in their playoff run later this year, it really doesn’t look like the Golden Knights miss him that much. Meanwhile, Eichel has become the franchise player that they envisioned before they traded for him. As for Coughlan, it seems like a wash as the team does have a lot of minor league depth on defense, so no loss there.

I think the move worked out quite well for Vegas.

Ethan Hetu

Ottawa Senators Acquire Alex DeBrincat

For me, the Blackhawks’ deal to send Alex DeBrincat to the Ottawa Senators was not, on its own, the most memorable transaction of 2022. Instead, it’s what the Alex DeBrincat trade meant for one of the league’s marquee franchises that makes it such a defining moment of this year in hockey.

For most NHL franchises, making a trade as the Blackhawks’ first-year GM Kyle Davidson did would be unthinkable. Although the reality of DeBrincat’s restricted free agency and rapidly approaching eligibility for unrestricted free agency complicated matters, the fact of the matter is that DeBrincat was a 24-year-old player who had just scored 41 goals and 78 points. It was the second time in his young career that he crossed the 40-goal threshold, and he had firmly established himself as one of the league’s premier snipers.

In other words, this is not the sort of player a team should be trading. DeBrincat, a young elite scoring winger, is the textbook player a rebuilding franchise should build around, not cash in for draft picks like an aging veteran who won’t be around the next time his team is able to contend. And yet despite this conventional wisdom, Davidson chose to send his potential franchise pillar to Ottawa in exchange for a collection of draft picks.

Typically, when a team entertains the idea of trading a player like DeBrincat, they will hope to receive young, NHL-ready, or close to NHL-ready prospects. These are both “high upside” assets while also theoretically being safer investments than draft picks, as they are further along their development cycle. The Blackhawks chose not to acquire a player of that sort from the Senators, such as center Shane Pinto to give an example, preferring a package of draft picks that became Seattle Thunderbirds defenseman Kevin Korchinski, Kingston Frontenacs forward Paul Ludwinski, and a future mid-round pick.

Bold is definitely the word to use to characterize the choice, but what made the decision to convert a star forward into draft capital the most memorable transaction of 2022 is what it signified for the Blackhawks franchise. It was their warning shot, telling the rest of the NHL that their franchise’s primary objective would be stockpiling draft picks and prospects.

The 2019 third-overall pick Kirby Dach, just 21 years old and with much left to still be determined about his NHL future, was sent away in order to acquire another first-round pick. Valuable salary cap space was sacrificed (via the acquisition of Petr Mrazek) in order to move up the draft order to nab USHL defenseman Sam Rinzel.

While the Brandon Hagel trade may have been the first real move of the Blackhawks’ rebuild, the DeBrincat trade was their statement move, telling the rest of the league that they were and are firmly open for business. With a potential Patrick Kane trade having the potential to alter the balance of power among contenders in the NHL, the profound ripple effect of this summer’s DeBrincat trade makes it unquestionably the most memorable transaction of 2022.

Gavin Lee

Carolina Hurricanes Acquire Brent Burns

The Tkachuk trade stands out for me just because of the sheer amount of talent that was involved, but there’s another one that I still can’t seem to get out of my mind. I know that a lot happened on July 13 this year but it really seemed like most people glossed over Brent Burns heading to Carolina, and I’m not exactly sure why. I get the feeling that a lot of people may have forgotten just how good he is, or at least has been.

Let’s take a look at a few names, and without looking it up, guess if they have more career points than Burns.

How many did you get right? Only Stevens (908) and Gonchar (811) have outscored Burns’ 800 points. He sits 18th on the all-time list of defensemen, ahead of a whole bunch of Hall of Fame players. But he played forward! Yep, he sure did. Had he stayed a defenseman his whole career, Burns would likely actually have more points than he currently does.

When the Sharks got him and played him upfront for a couple of seasons, his production actually went down because he was only on the ice for around 16 minutes a night. In 2012-13 and 2013-14, he had just 68 points in 99 games. He had at least 60 in each of the following five seasons as a full-time defenseman, not to mention finishing as a Norris finalist three times during that span (and winning once).

He’s now playing nearly 24 minutes a night in Carolina, who have come roaring back from a mediocre start to take the lead in the Metropolitan Division. As I write this, the team is winning their eighth in a row, and will be 22-6-6 going into the holiday break. A potential HOF defenseman switched teams after a decade, and nearly 600 points with one team – and it seemed like no one was really paying attention.

Sure, Burns has flaws. He isn’t a great defender, he isn’t as physical as he once was, and he takes a lot of risks. But remember that the Hurricanes are only paying him $5.28MM of his $8MM cap hit after the Sharks retained salary. That’s less than guys like Esa Lindell, Nate Schmidt, Tyler Myers, and Erik Johnson – a group that has combined for 28 points on the season.

For whatever reason, that trade still sticks out in my mind as one that I didn’t see coming.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Tampa Bay Lightning

December 24, 2022 at 4:55 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 1 Comment

Who are the Lightning thankful for?

Nikita Kucherov.

Yes, he’s healthy, and yes, he’s as good as he’s ever been. Kucherov has shone brightly this season, even among a notoriously strong supporting cast in Tampa Bay. He had played in just over a third of Tampa’s regular season games over the past two seasons, even losing the entire 2020-21 regular season to injury.

But he’s back on his world-beating pace, set to break the 120-point mark once again if he can suit up for a full 82 games. He leads all Lightning with 49 points in 32 games, 11 points ahead of Steven Stamkos. He’s also playing over 21 minutes per game, the highest mark in his NHL career.

The Lightning will have eight players with a cap hit greater than $5MM next season, not including the long-term injured reserve relief of Brent Seabrook. With that kind of top-loaded structure, you need quality depth, and you need your stars to be stars. Kucherov’s performance, especially when healthy, makes his $9.5MM cap hit seem like a bargain, even in this tight salary cap landscape. Continued elite performance from the 29-year-old is crucial in giving the Lightning a chance to remain among the league’s best.

What are the Lightning thankful for?

Financial certainty as the cap rises.

It’s been a delicate dance for the Lightning’s front office over the past few seasons. The team made three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances in a time of near-complete financial stagnation for the league, mainly due to their management’s ability to play with fire without getting burned.

In even better news, they’re in a position to get rewarded as the cap rises. They have very few core players to sign to new contracts anytime soon. Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman will need new deals in the next three seasons, but they’ll be 34 and 35 at that time and won’t be able to command much of a raise, if any. Kucherov, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and even Erik Cernak and Nick Paul are locked in well past their 30th birthdays.

It finally seems like there may be some room to breathe for the Lightning, even if it’s a few seasons away.

What would the Lightning be even more thankful for?

More out of Victor Hedman.

18 points in 30 games aren’t bad by any measure, but Hedman has lost his grip on being the team’s unequivocal number-one defenseman, at least for now.

Mikhail Sergachev has dominated, potting 27 points in 30 games while seeing his usage equal nearly that of Hedman’s across 30 games. But it’s not just points separating the two this season.

Hedman’s main defense partners this year, Erik Cernak and Nicklaus Perbix, each have better defensive metrics paired with different defenders. Neither the Hedman-Cernak pairing nor the Hedman-Perbix pairing has eclipsed a 50% expected goals share this season, according to MoneyPuck’s model. It’s putting more strain on other Lightning defenders to pick up the legwork, and thankfully, they’re delivering.

What should be on the Lightning’s holiday wishlist?

A better backup goalie.

Tampa still has very little maneuverability this season financially, so any trade deadline moves they make will need to be small and effective. Their forward core still makes up the eighth-ranked offense in the league, and their defense is still capable for the most part.

Their most glaring weakness can thankfully be easily addressed. Brian Elliott is 37 years old and, despite a 7-2-0 record this year, has just a .894 save percentage. If any health issue affects Vasilevskiy in the playoffs, it’s likely game over for Tampa in a tight Eastern Conference.

Main photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Panel: Trade Market Memories (Part 1)

December 24, 2022 at 1:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

Now on to the meat of the thing. Our question today is simple:

What is the most memorable transaction of 2022?

Brian La Rose

Tampa Bay Lightning Acquire Brandon Hagel

It certainly wasn’t the biggest move nor the splashiest, but Tampa Bay’s acquisition of Brandon Hagel is one that stunned me at the time. Not that the Lightning going and getting help wasn’t expected but the price tag (two first-round picks plus two young, cost-controllable roster players) seemed almost unthinkable for someone with Hagel’s somewhat limited track record.

Consider that Hagel was drafted by Buffalo and wasn’t offered a contract. Montreal brought him in as a camp invite and didn’t see fit to sign him either. Chicago did but he only played in 108 games before the trade, scoring 30 goals. Decent, sure, but worth two first-round picks plus Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk? No, I certainly didn’t see that coming.

What really made this trade memorable for me is how much it hammered home the value of team-friendly contracts. Trades are supposed to be about adding talent and key pieces but this move really emphasized that in this marketplace, math is what deals are all about. The top players don’t necessarily have the best trade value. Now, it’s the cost-effective players that do, especially ones with multiple years on a team-friendly contract. That’s how a forward with 30 career goals fetches two first-rounders.

Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t intended to be negative toward Tampa Bay. I fully get the logic and it’s absolutely defensible within the context of their cap situation. And Hagel is doing a nice job for them. But if someone would have suggested to me a month before the deadline that Brandon Hagel was going to be the player that brought back the most first-rounders, I’d have thought that person was joking. This move was an eye-opener for me in that sense, so it’s one that is definitely memorable.

Zach Leach

Boston Bruins Acquire Pavel Zacha

While blockbuster trades, lopsided swaps, or other headline-grabbing transactions are often the most memorable – and 2022 had its fair share – the deals that usually stick with me are the thinkers. There are always some trades that seem to heavily favor one side and beg the question “What was the GM thinking?” In 2022, the biggest head-scratcher in that regard was the Pavel Zacha–Erik Haula swap.

The New Jersey Devils are an up-and-coming young team that has nearly $25MM in salary coming off the books after the 2022-23 season. In Zacha, they had a 25-year-old restricted free agent forward coming off of a career-high in points and a defensive renaissance. The Devils could have found a way to manage the cap in order to sign Zacha to a multi-year deal and allow him to keep growing with their young core. The counter to this, of course, is that perhaps GM Tom Fitzgerald and company didn’t see the upside in paying to keep Zacha and wanted to trade him instead, which would be perfectly valid even if incorrect.

However, the player they chose to swap him for (straight up) was 31-year-old journeyman Haula, who was entering the final season of his contract and will be an unrestricted free agent at year’s end. He enjoyed a solid season in Boston in 2021-22, recording 44 points in 78 games, and is certainly the more experienced scorer and defensive player compared to Zacha. But his per-game production last year was not all that different than Zacha’s 36 points in 70 games and Haula was skating with the Bruins’ elite top-six for most of the campaign.

In fact, Zacha had the superior career points-per-game mark, the higher career average time on ice, better checking numbers, better possession numbers, and more. Considering again that Zacha was six years younger and under team control, while Haula is a stopgap depth piece for (at the time of the trade) a team that was not expected to contend for a postseason spot, the deal didn’t make much sense.

Since the trade was made, the status quo has changed somewhat. The Bruins signed Zacha to a one-year deal, making him an impending unrestricted free agent as well. This was yet another odd wrinkle to the trade, but understandable given Boston’s difficult short-term and long-term cap squeeze and primary focus on competing for a Stanley Cup right now. Even as a fellow UFA, Zacha still is the better player in the deal and has proven it this season.

Prior to their ongoing slide, the Devils were the biggest surprise of the early 2022-23 season as one of the top teams in the NHL and Haula has been contributing with 14 points in 33 games. And yet, the Bruins are undoubtedly the league’s top team and Zacha is playing a key role, recording 19 points in 31 games. Given the question marks in Boston’s aging core, Zacha looks like a potential long-term fit with the Bruins if the two sides can strike a deal before free agency.

Haula, though admittedly now a valued veteran piece of a team with playoff ambitions, is still likely to be one-and-done with the Devils. Even in the midst of a strong start to the season and a bright future, New Jersey fans should still be wondering why they moved on from Zacha, why they targeted an impending UFA in exchange for an RFA with no certainty of contending this season, and why they couldn’t get more than Haula (from Boston or elsewhere) in exchange? It’s a strange deal that I still find myself thinking about.

John Gilroy

Florida Panthers Acquire, Extend Matthew Tkachuk

It’s not very often that a pair of Hart candidates and a Norris candidate are all traded for each other. In fact, the last and only time two players coming off of 100-point seasons were dealt for each other, it was the trade that sent Wayne Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings, with Jimmy Carson going the other way.

There are two key elements of this trade that make it the most memorable to me. The first is that Weegar, frequently listed among the favorites to compete for the Norris, was likely the third-best player involved in this trade. Adding to that, remember Florida also sent a first-round pick to Calgary with Weegar and Huberdeau.

The other part of this that makes it memorable is the timing: late at night on a Friday more than a week after free agency had opened. Personally, I recall checking my phone one last time before putting it down to go to bed, not expecting to see much, but instead getting one of the biggest blockbusters in league history.

Nobody would bet on this type of deal going down, but if it was going to, it’s hard to imagine it would happen anywhere other than the floor of the NHL Draft.

Nate Brown

Ottawa Senators Acquire Alex DeBrincat – Montreal Canadiens Acquire Kirby Dach – Chicago Blackhawks Acquire Petr Mrazek

I’m going to bundle the triumvirate of trades that the Chicago Blackhawks made during the 2022 NHL Draft. The Blackhawks had peddled their 2022 first-round pick to Columbus, which wouldn’t you know it, ended up being a top-ten pick. New general manager Kyle Davidson went to work, dealing Alex DeBrincat for Ottawa for its seventh overall pick, a 2022 second-round pick, and a 2024 third-round pick.

As the hockey world was digesting the deal, Davidson shipped 2019 third-overall pick Kirby Dach to Montreal for the Canadiens’ 13th-overall pick and a third-round pick. Finally, Davidson sent the Hawks’ 2022 second-round pick to Toronto for its 25th overall pick and goalie Petr Mrazek.

This signaled two things to the league.

Chicago was all-in on a rebuild. It immediately led to speculation about Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews’ future in the Windy City, but as of this panel, they’re still in the fold.
Davidson was not gun-shy and would make deals that could accelerate the Blackhawks’ rebuild.

Chicago has obviously gone hard into the Connor Bedard tank-a-thon and Davidson got a jump start on it by acquiring three picks to potentially bring along should Chicago win the Lottery in 2023.

Check back for part 2 later today!

What Your Team Is Thankful For: St. Louis Blues

December 23, 2022 at 8:07 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson Leave a Comment

Who are the Blues thankful for?

Jordan Kyrou.

He may have had a slow start to the season, but Kyrou’s had a torrid November and December to silence any doubters. It’s been a streaky run for the Blues this season, and seeing young cornerstones continue to develop and lead the team is always a positive.

After just three points in his first eight games, Kyrou has 29 in his past 23 and leads the team in scoring with 16 goals and 32 points. At 24 years old, Kyrou figures to be a long-term solution for elite goal-scoring in St. Louis. The team agrees and is being rewarded for their gamble, handing Kyrou an eight-year, $65MM extension that kicks in next season.

He’s rolling along at more than a point-per-game clip on the league’s 21st-ranked offense, which is underperforming, to be fair. But the Blues still remain in the playoff conversation with a .500 record as Christmas approaches, mainly in part due to Kyrou’s offensive excellence.

What are the Blues thankful for?

A rough season with good timing.

If there were ever a season for the Blues to sell, it would be this one. Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Ivan Barbashev are all unrestricted free agents at the season’s end. While it would be a tad out of nature for general manager Doug Armstrong, the team could certainly opt for a retool around the strong performances of players like Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Pavel Buchnevich.

It would allow St. Louis to recoup what could be massive value early on in a retool phase, giving them a jumpstart in getting back into competitiveness without having to sacrifice players like Kyrou and Thomas later in their primes for a full-scale rebuild. If Armstrong plays his cards right, he has a unique opportunity to restock St. Louis’ cupboard at just the right time.

What would the Blues be even more thankful for?

A Jordan Binnington resurgence.

His .897 save percentage doesn’t tell the whole story. The team has not been close to the league’s upper echelon defensively, and it reflects in their goals against total, which sits near the league’s bottom.

But Binnington hasn’t stolen games the way he did earlier in his NHL career, and his behavior unrelated to his play has made more headlines this year than his saves have. He’s been average, not to blame for St. Louis’ struggles, but not the goalie that won them a Stanley Cup in 2019.

The issue lies in that St. Louis has invested in him to do just that – steal games. He’s not paid like a tandem netminder, locked in at a $6MM cap hit through 2027. With trade protection in the mix, too, it’s not looking like a pretty situation financially.

What should be on the Blues’ holiday wishlist?

Like many other teams, young defensemen.

The team’s prospect pool on D revolves around Scott Perunovich. While extremely talented, he hasn’t been able to avoid constant injury issues. He played just 36 games last season across both the NHL and AHL and hasn’t played at all this season due to a shoulder injury expected to keep him out through April.

Outside of him, there are some players who may have NHL futures, but no one who fits the bill as a solid long-term solution. Help in the D pipeline will likely be top of mind in trade returns if the Blues do sell off assets at the trade deadline.

Main photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Stock Watch: Centers

December 23, 2022 at 5:00 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu 4 Comments

The Marquee Names

Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks

Just a few months ago, it seemed impossible to imagine this current Canucks core led by anyone other than Horvat. The Canucks’ captain has been a centerpiece player in British Columbia since being drafted ninth overall in 2013, and the value he provides to the franchise both on and off the ice can oftentimes seem irreplaceable.

But with Vancouver’s season running off the rails, the team’s recent extension of J.T. Miller to a massive new contract, and their front office’s stated desire to gain more financial flexibility, it’s getting harder and harder to imagine a path where Horvat remains in Vancouver.

While Horvat may be disappointed at the increasingly realistic prospect of his Canucks departure, what should cheer him up is his play so far this season. Horvat has scored 22 goals and 31 points in 32 games, a number that puts him tied for fourth in goals in the NHL.

Horvat will be 28 years old when he first takes the ice with a new contract, a factor that could make him a more attractive long-term investment to teams than the players in their thirties that typically populate a free agent class. That, combined with his well-regarded defensive play and value as a leader means Horvat could be in a position to potentially earn the largest contract of the 2023 free agent class.

Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

Larkin is in many ways similar to Horvat. Like Horvat, Larkin is a team captain and a player who is known for providing value on both ends of the ice as well as off of it.

Unlike Horvat, though, there is a strong possibility that Larkin remains with the only franchise he’s ever known.

With 31 points in 31 games, Larkin is currently on pace for another season at or near the point-per-game threshold.

He’ll have just turned 27 years old when he hits free agency, and the reality of the NHL is that in-their-prime centers who combine offensive production and all-around play very rarely hit the open market.

While fans may not be pleased that an extension hasn’t been hammered out yet, Larkin has played exactly as well as anyone could have reasonably expected of him, and that deal should be coming.

The Red Wings’ cap sheet is not nearly as constrained as nearly every other team in the NHL, so with how well Larkin has been playing it would be a genuinely shocking development for him to do anything but remain in the Motor City.

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues

While this section is labeled as free agency’s “marquee names” at the center position, it could also be called “the captains.” That’s because like Horvat, Larkin, and the two other names in this section, O’Reilly is a quality center and captain of his team set to hit free agency this summer.

Unlike the four other names in this group, though, O’Reilly’s play this season has not helped his case to earn a major contract this summer. And that decline in his stock is coming from his play at both ends of the ice.

As one would expect, the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner is leading the Blues in short-handed ice time per game and playing a centerpiece defensive role for his club. Last season, the Blues had a top-five penalty kill, canceling opponents’ power plays at an 84.1% clip. O’Reilly led the way in getting the Blues to that point.

This year, it’s a different story. O’Reilly is still playing in that top defensive role, but the Blues are near the bottom of the NHL with a 71.3% penalty kill rate. That’s not all on O’Reilly’s shoulders, but as the player with the most ice time in those situations and coach Craig Berube’s most trusted defensive weapon, he does bear some responsibility for that decline.

What’s also declined as sharply as the Blues penalty kill is O’Reilly’s scoring numbers. O’Reilly has scored just 15 points in 33 games, a 37-point 82-game pace. Just two years ago, O’Reilly scored at nearly a point-per-game rate. Last year, he scored a healthy 58 points in 78 games.

As far as his next contract is concerned, if he doesn’t manage to go on a hot streak and get into the 40 or 50-point range, that offensive decline could put a serious dent in his earning potential. That’s doubly true of any perceived decline in his defensive game, as that’s his calling card.

Just as the Blues are looking to right the ship during what has been so far an uneven campaign, O’Reilly is likely looking to get back to the level of play he put forth in prior seasons in order to earn the best possible contract this summer.

The playoffs have been the games where O’Reilly’s star shines the brightest, so perhaps he’ll need to lead the way on another deep playoff run to alleviate fears that a steep age-related decline is setting in.

Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins

Bergeron’s free agency case is quite simple. Unlike most players, he’s not really in need of a “stock watch” entry. He’s scored 26 points in 32 games, could very well win yet another Selke Trophy, and is captaining a Bruins team that is currently laying waste to the entire NHL.

And he’s also costing the Bruins just $2.5MM against the cap.

Just as Bergeron is a special player, his upcoming free agency is a special situation. As he did this past summer, Bergeron will likely take some time to reflect and decide if he wants to return for another season, and then agree with the Bruins on an extension that makes sense for both parties.

He could go on a nine-game scoreless drought. He could make a few uncharacteristic defensive lapses and single-handedly tank the Bruins’ league-leading penalty kill a few percentage points. Doesn’t matter. A decision on his future this summer is entirely in his own hands, which is a right he’s earned after nearly two decades in Boston.

Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks

Toews, a three-time Stanley Cup-winning captain, and one-time Selke Trophy winner, is in a similar situation to Bergeron. The one complicating factor in Toews’ case compared to Bergeron’s is the state of the Blackhawks.

The Blackhawks are on a fast track to the highest odds for the NHL draft lottery, and there’s been much speculation over whether Toews wants to stick around in Chicago through what appears to be a painful, scorched-earth rebuild.

If he chooses to test the market, it’s likely that choice would come from a motivation to win one more Stanley Cup ring, which means his market and next contract could ultimately be decided by personal preference, rather than financial factors.

On the ice, Toews’ play has been solid, and while he’s not the lineup-topping two-way force he once was, his 17 points in 30 games on such a poor team is nothing to scoff at, and there are far worse second or third-line centers a team could have than Toews.

The Solid Contributors

Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues

If one just compares this season to 2021-22, Barbashev’s stock in advance of his potential free agency is down. Barbashev scored 26 goals and 60 points last season, and now he is scoring at a 40-point pace. That decline alone will likely mean fewer dollars on his next contract.

But if we put Barbashev’s 2021-22 offensive explosion into a bit more context and look at a longer-term outlook, his stock would undoubtedly have to be viewed as being up.

Before last season, Barbashev’s career-high in points was 26. He was seen as more of a two-way center whose offensive skills simply were not refined enough or dangerous enough to allow him to create offensive opportunities consistently in the NHL.

Last year, Barbashev changed that narrative, and even though he hasn’t reached those heights so far this season he’s still managing to play at a 40-point pace. 40-point centers who can hold their own on both ends of the ice remain valuable, and while Barbashev isn’t going to win Selke trophies he does have a defensive dimension to his game.

Barbashev just recently turned 27, and if a team buys into the idea that he can return to scoring around the 60-point mark, he could get paid. But even if teams are less optimistic about his offensive game, his play this year is still far above what he once put forth at the NHL level, and has put him in a position to earn a quality contract.

J.T. Compher, Colorado Avalanche

When Nazem Kadri faced some injury issues in the 2022 playoffs, it was Compher’s job to step into a greater role down the middle and ensure the machine that was the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche kept moving. He did exactly that and won a Stanley Cup as a result.

This year, with Kadri now in Calgary and the Avalanche battling a downright absurd amount of injuries, Compher has quietly stepped forward and provided competence, reliability, and all-around value. He’s scored 16 points in 31 games so far this year, and that 42-point pace, if sustained, would fly past his career-high of 33 points.

He’ll be 28 years old this summer, and his ability to play under pressure and step forward into a higher role in the lineup than he was originally slotted to occupy should make him a coveted name on the market.

Sean Monahan, Montreal Canadiens

Once a slam-dunk 25-30 goal scorer, injuries had derailed Monahan’s career so severely that the Flames paid a future first-round pick to the Canadiens just so they would absorb his contract. Since that trade, Monahan has had a bit of a career revival, leading a young Canadiens squad to a surprisingly competent start and scoring at a far better rate than he’s done in the past two seasons.

So far this year, Monahan has scored 17 points in 25 games. He’s battling an injury again, but it’s not one that’s expected to keep him from making his return to the lineup with a ways to go left in the season.

While Monahan’s struggles with injuries may give teams pause about a major long-term commitment, his play in Montreal has been a resoundingly positive development for his career. He may not receive the kind of contract he once looked in line to cash in on, but he’ll likely still be an in-demand piece if he can keep up this career rebirth when he returns from IR.

Max Domi, Chicago Blackhawks

From one angle, it seems as though Domi’s decision to take a one-year, $3MM deal last summer from the Blackhawks was done largely to put himself in the best possible position for a summer of 2023 free agency. So far, he’s done just that.

After a season that saw him play unevenly with the Columbus Blue Jackets and be traded to the Carolina Hurricanes at the deadline, Domi signed with Chicago likely with the hopes that his natural offensive talent would mesh with that of the Blackhawks’ franchise face, Patrick Kane.

Domi has indeed played with Kane, and while they are far from a perfect partnership, they are first and second on the Blackhawks in scoring, with Kane at 22 points in 31 games and Domi at 21 in 31.

There has always been the possibility of a higher offensive ceiling with Domi, who scored 72 points in 2018-19, but he wasn’t able to reach that point in Columbus or in his short stay in Carolina.

While Domi is undeniably an extremely talented player on an individual basis, his vision can be lacking at times and he doesn’t always play as a member of a three-player unit, sometimes preferring to use his tantalizing skills on his own to create offense without thinking about how he can best utilize the players on the ice with him.

In the right fit, Domi can thrive, and with a bit of luck, he’s shown that he can be among a team’s top scorers. But he’s far from a sure thing. If Domi can play well after his seemingly inevitable midseason trade to a contender, and finish near his current scoring pace of 56 points, he’ll enter the market on stronger footing than he did last season.

Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes

Staal is in a similar position to Toews and Bergeron, even though he’s not quite the caliber of player they are/were. He’s a beloved face of the franchise in Carolina and in a position where he’s likely to remain there at a reasonable price.

In his recent 32 Thoughts blog, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman stated that “no one is expecting [Staal] to leave Carolina.” Staal has scored 14 points in 33 games so far this year, which is a 34-point pace. That’s right in line with the 36 and 38 points he’s scored in the last two seasons.

Staal still shoulders a major defensive role in Carolina, handling difficult defensive matchups and playing the most time on the penalty kill of any Hurricanes forward. Although the Hurricanes’ short-handed unit has taken a bit of a step back so far this year, that won’t stop Staal from earning a market-rate extension in Carolina if that’s the path he chooses.

The Role Players

Erik Haula, New Jersey Devils

Haula, who will be 32 when free agency opens next year, has entered a bit of a journeyman phase in his career. He’s played for six different teams in the past half-decade and could play for his eighth NHL franchise if he leaves the New Jersey Devils this summer.

A versatile forward who can play center or on the wing, Haula plays a Swiss Army Knife role, scoring at a 35-point pace and on the Devils’ second penalty-killing unit.

Haula’s age may keep him from a long-term pact, but his stock is holding steady as he provides steady veteran two-way play to a young Devils team that’s had an extremely impressive season.

Frederick Gaudreau, Minnesota Wild

Gaudreau is a bit of a late bloomer, getting his first complete season as a full-time NHLer at the age of 28. He didn’t waste that opportunity, though, scoring 14 goals and 44 points in 76 games.

This year, Gaudreau’s offense hasn’t gotten back to that point, as he has just 14 points in 33 games. But he averages the most short-handed ice time per game on the Wild, helping Minnesota’s penalty-kill to an above-average 13th-place rank so far this year.

His free agency will be somewhat difficult to predict, as he’ll have only two seasons on his resume as an everyday NHLer. But as of right now while his stock is down from where it was last season, he’s still put himself in a strong position for an undrafted former minor leaguer.

Lars Eller, Washington Capitals

While Eller, who will be 34 during free agency, isn’t the player he once was, he’s still providing value for the Capitals. He plays a reliable two-way game and has scored 13 points in 34 games. He’s a veteran who is in his seventh year as a Capital and has a Stanley Cup-winning goal on his resume.

His stock is down from where it might have been a few years ago when he was one of the league’s best third-line centers and comfortably capable of scoring 15 goals and 35-40 points. But in a league where centers are always in demand, Eller has kept up his play enough to put him in a solid position if he enters the market next year.

Oskar Sundqvist, Detroit Red Wings

Versatility is the name of the game with Sundqvist. The Red Wings, like the Blues for many years, have deployed Sundqvist in all sorts of roles, as a center or winger, as a physical fourth-liner, or as a complementary piece next to skilled players such as Pius Suter and Dominik Kubalik.

But just as versatility is what Sundqvist is the constant of Sundqvist’s game, so is battling injury issues. Sundqvist’s career-high for games played in a season is 74, and that came all the way back in 2018-19. Since that point, Sundqvist hasn’t managed to cross the 60-point mark in any given year.

The trouble he’s had staying healthy will likely be his biggest question mark on the market. Teams know what he can bring on the ice, but they might question how often he can do so. Still, so far this season Sundqvist’s play in Detroit has pushed his stock up, and what could really sustain that upward trend as he gets closer to free agency would be a continued clean bill of health.

David Kampf, Toronto Maple Leafs

An undrafted player out of the Czech Republic, Kampf is in line to cash in after turning in quality play in a bottom-six role on one of the NHL’s biggest stages. In his first year in Toronto, Kampf scored 11 goals and 26 points, while also playing nearly two and a half minutes per night on one of the league’s better penalty kills.

This year, Kampf has resumed his role anchoring the Maple Leafs’ play with a man in the box and has scored at a 31-point pace. His stock has been moving steadily upward since he arrived in Toronto.

While part of that is likely due to the fact that the size and fervor of the Toronto market magnified his performances, attributing his rising stock to the Toronto factor alone would be doing a disservice to the hard work Kampf has put forth. He’s genuinely turned himself into a reliable, quality NHL bottom-sixer.

Kampf isn’t going to break the bank, but he’ll be a 28-year-old free agent with two straight strong years on his resume in a massive market.

If he chooses to head to free agency, there’ll most definitely be interest from across the league. The only potential threat to his market could be the flat cap, as defense-first bottom-six players like Kampf could be the first in line to be squeezed in the market by the leaguewide lack of cap space.

Teddy Blueger, Pittsburgh Penguins

Blueger, 28, returned from a season-opening injury and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. The Latvian has been a responsible bottom-six center for the Penguins, scoring 28 points in 65 games last year. He has six points in 18 games this year and has resumed his role as a defensive specialist.

As mentioned with Kampf, it’s possible that a minimal cap increase squeezes defensive specialist players into smaller contracts than they likely deserve. We saw that happen with Zach Aston-Reese last summer, as he is a capable defensive winger who was forced to sign a PTO with Toronto in the absence of suitable full contract offers.

With that in mind, it may be in Blueger’s best interest to take a one-year deal and re-enter the market in a raised-cap environment. His stock at the moment remains as steady as his play, but will the market be able to catch up?

Tomas Nosek, Boston Bruins

Nosek, 30, is the fourth-line center on what is right now the NHL’s best team. He plays responsibly in his own end, kills penalties, and chips in some offense once in a while. And now that he’s a veteran of over 350 NHL games, it’s become clear that this is the kind of player Nosek is at this point in his career, there’s no real mystery there.

He’s a consistent presence, and his consistency extends to his offensive production, where he is scoring at an 18-point pace after scoring 17 last season. There is always a place for guys like Nosek in the league, even if he doesn’t end up cashing in on a major contract.

Nick Bonino, San Jose Sharks

A veteran of nearly 800 NHL games, Bonino is a known quantity across the NHL. The two-time Stanley Cup champion will be 35 by the time free agency opens next year, and without an extension will be searching for the seventh NHL home of his career.

Bonino brings value defensively and has shown some recent flashes offensively, scoring 16 goals last season. He has four goals and nine points in 32 games this season. Looking just at his offensive production, it appears his stock is down, but with the Sharks’ penalty kill firing on all cylinders with Bonino a major part of it, one has to imagine he’s not fretting about his NHL future too much.

Others Of Note

Nick Bjugstad, Arizona Coyotes

The 30-year-old veteran signed a one-year, $900K deal in Arizona after a challenging two-year stretch in Minnesota. He’s been exactly as advertised for Arizona, scoring seven goals in 31 games. The Coyotes are a bad team, but Bjugstad has been decent and his play this year should be enough to protect his spot and earn him a deal for next season, even if it does end up being around his current $900K cap hit.

Noel Acciari, St. Louis Blues

Acciari is in a similar position to Bjugstad as a shoot-fist bottom-sixer with some goal-scoring luck so far this year. The 31-year-old has eight goals in 33 games and has managed to hold down a regular spot in St. Louis, playing anywhere from the first to fourth line.

His play likely merits a deal around what he’s earning against the cap right now, $1.25MM, but the flat salary cap could make squeezing out every last dollar a bit more of a difficult prospect, potentially making a sub-$1MM deal more likely.

Derek Stepan, Carolina Hurricanes

While Acciari and Bjugstad have found some scoring luck, the same cannot be said about Stepan. The former New York Ranger has scored just four points in 30 games so far this year.

While Stepan’s name still carries some value to some, a player’s play always does the most talking. in 2022-23, Stepan’s play has been silent, and it could cost him on the open market.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Seattle Kraken

December 22, 2022 at 8:04 pm CDT | by John Gilroy 3 Comments

Who are the Kraken thankful for?

Matthew Beniers

The second-overall pick in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft and the first pick in the history of the Kraken, Beniers has had a quick rise to success, and stardom, in the NHL. The recently-turned 20-year-old currently sits third on the team in points with 24 and fourth amongst Kraken forwards in average time-on-ice, playing 17:13.

Impressive as Beniers’ offensive game has been thus far, looking a little deeper at his numbers beyond just points, shows how impressive the rookie is. Coming into tonight, Beniers currently holds a +6 rating along with a 56.5 Corsi and 56.2 Fenwick, albeit with far more offensive-zone starts than defensive.

One might also expect a player of this age and experience to be fairly irresponsible, but for Beniers’ 16 giveaways in 31 games this season, he’s countered with 17 takeaways. Perhaps you’d think that surely he wouldn’t be throwing his body around much in his first full season, but Beniers also comes into today with 37 hits. You also wouldn’t be blamed for thinking a 20-year-old who plays physical hockey would definitely have piled up plenty of penalty minutes, putting his team on the penalty kill over and over. That’s also not the case with the beyond-his-years forward, who has a grand total of two penalty minutes over those 31 games.

Beniers still has plenty to work on and is a few years away from entering his prime, but when looking for reasons why Seattle was able to have such a quick turnaround after a disappointing inaugural season, at the top of the board is this rookie sensation.

What are the Kraken thankful for?

A quick turnaround

When the expansion Vegas Golden Knights reached the Stanley Cup Final in their first season, it got many prospective new franchises (their potential owners, especially) excited at the prospect of adding a team in their city too. Seattle was fortunate enough to receive the next expansion team, but their inaugural season provided the disclaimer on Vegas’ success to all future expansion franchises: results may vary.

The Kraken finished 30th overall in the NHL in their first campaign, ahead of only the Arizona Coyotes and Montreal Canadiens. While the franchise probably doesn’t appreciate being compared to the Golden Knights every step of the way, one would assume they were hoping for a comparable first season. That, of course, didn’t happen, though the team did receive a nice consolation prize: the fourth-overall pick and the opportunity to select Shane Wright.

Good as Wright is, and will be, Seattle knew it needed to flip the switch after last season and did plenty to address the situation this offseason, highlighted by adding Andre Burakovsky in free agency and acquiring Oliver Bjorkstrand from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Beniers’ breakout, along with a resurgence from Jordan Eberle and newfound success from Daniel Sprong in the bottom-six also aided Seattle’s turnaround, the team currently sitting third in the Pacific Division entering the day.

Now in their second season and the weight of last season’s poor performance off their shoulders, the group can continue to focus and push for the playoffs as just another one of the NHL’s 32 teams, a good situation for players, coaches, management, ownership, and fans of any team, including the newest.

What would the Kraken be even more thankful for?

Average (or better) goaltending

Quality goaltending was more or less impossible for the Kraken to find last season. None of their three goaltenders, Philipp Grubauer, Chris Driedger, or Joey Daccord, recorded a save-percentage over .900 and only Driedger’s goals-against average, 2.96, was below 3.00. Keeping the puck out of the net is a team effort, however it’s reasonable to suspect that had Seattle received at least league-average goaltending, they may have been competitive for a long stretch of last season.

Entering 2022-23, if the team wanted to turn things around, it appeared they would need the goaltending situation to improve in a big way. Interestingly, the team has turned things around in a major way, however the goaltending hasn’t improved all that much. Grubauer’s play has in fact deteriorated even further, though the newly-signed Martin Jones is having somewhat of a rebound.

Jones, 32, has shouldered the load for the Kraken thus far, getting into 22 of the team’s 31 games, posting an .889 save-percentage and 2.91 goals-against average. Those numbers aren’t much better than anything else Seattle has seen, but they also don’t tell a complete story. After a strong start, Jones has trailed off a little in the past couple of weeks and was impacted by an outlier 9-8 win over the Los Angeles Kings on November 29th, where he recorded 27 saves on 35 shots.

While Jones’ numbers are an improvement, they aren’t exactly good either. If Seattle wants to succeed and make a run not only at the playoffs, but in them, the internal goaltending performance will need to improve significantly. With $11.4MM tied up in goaltending for this season, there isn’t much room to make an immediate upgrade at the position. Even after this season when Jones and his $2MM come off the books, the team still has Driedger signed for another year at $3.5MM AAV and Grubauer signed for another four years at $5.9MM AAV.

Bringing in a new netminder in the offseason wouldn’t necessarily be impossible, but would be difficult given their commitments. Even then, adding a goaltender with a strong pedigree is great, but they would need him to perform like it. After all, the team signed a goaltender with a strong pedigree before last season: Grubauer.

What should be on the Kraken’s holiday wishlist?

A puck-moving defenseman

Some Vezina-quality goaltending would probably top the list in Seattle, but as we explained, that’s not as easy as it sounds. After that, the Kraken could certainly benefit from a defenseman who could get their strong crop of snipers the puck in key areas, especially on the powerplay.

The Kraken could more realistically address this need in-season, with a few options available. The team currently has just under $1.2MM in salary cap space, which should get better as the deadline approaches. Perhaps the biggest name in this category would be Anaheim Ducks defenseman John Klingberg, who could have been a fit for the Kraken in free agency. Klingberg ultimately signed a one-year, $7MM contract with the Ducks where he, like his team, hasn’t been at his best. Still, the talent is there and the last-place Ducks are expected to move the blueliner for an asset before the deadline approaches.

Another option could be Shayne Gostisbehere of the Arizona Coyotes. The 29-year-old, who is set to be a free agent this offseason, had a fantastic comeback in 2021-22 with 51 points in 82 games and is well on his way to repeating upon that success with 21 points in 31 games this year. Considering Arizona’s struggles, Gostisbehere’s performance appears that much more impressive and putting him in a situation like Seattle with a number of talented point-producers could serve to grow his production that much more.

Big Hype Prospects: Iskhakov, Raty, Eklund, Wiesblatt, Rees, Kovalenko

December 22, 2022 at 5:20 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu Leave a Comment

Welcome to PHR’s Big Hype Prospects series. Like the MLB Trade Rumors series of the same name, we’ll be taking a regular look at the performances of top prospects from across the hockey world. We’ll look at drafted prospects who are rising, others who are struggling, and prospects for the upcoming draft who are notable.

Six Big Hype Prospects

Ruslan Iskhakov, C, New York Islanders (Bridgeport, AHL)
25GP 8G 12A 20pts

When the Islanders drafted Iskhakov 43rd overall at the 2018 NHL draft, they likely did so with the idea that he would be a long-term project. Iskhakov, who is perhaps generously listed as five-foot-nine, was committed to play at the University of Connecticut immediately after the draft. While Iskhakov is inarguably a player with lots of talent, he also, immediately after being selected, faced a long road to becoming a legitimate consideration for the Islanders’ NHL roster.

Iskhakov’s collegiate career started off scarily, as he was flattened by a massive hit in one of his first games as a Husky and needed to be stretchered off the ice. That scary hit led to questions about whether Iskhakov, a Moscow native who had developed prior to that point in Russia and Slovakia, would be able to weather the physicality and oftentimes suffocating lack of space on the smaller North American ice surfaces.

Those questions remained as Iskhakov left UConn to play professionally in both the Finnish Liiga, for TPS Turku, and in the German DEL for Adler Mannheim. But since Iskhakov thrived as a pro in Europe, scoring 38 points in 58 games for Turku and 22 in 25 for Mannheim, he made the decision to return to North America and sign with the Islanders organization.

This was the major test of Iskhakov’s status as a prospect, as whether he could handle the grind that is an AHL season would determine whether he could be considered a legitimate threat to eventually make an NHL roster. At 22 years old, the long runway Iskhakov had been afforded when he was drafted was beginning to shorten.

There were some observers who pointed to Iskhakov’s size profile and believed that Iskhakov’s success in Europe wouldn’t translate to the AHL or NHL. So far, though, Iskhakov’s play has quieted those doubters. He’s currently third on the Bridgeport Islanders in scoring with 20 points in 25 games, his production only behind two seasoned veterans in Andy Andreoff and Chris Terry.

While Iskhakov remains an undersized player, he has a level of shiftiness and stealth to his game that wasn’t present when he was younger. He’s acutely aware of his physical limitations and just how dangerous the game can be because of them, and as a result, he doesn’t make it easy for defenders to simply shut him down with physicality.

While the AHL is still a ways away from how difficult the NHL can be, Iskhakov’s play so far this year in the AHL has definitely advanced his standing in the Islanders’ relatively thin prospect system, and he has made his chances of getting into NHL games far less remote than they once could have been.

Aku Raty, RW, Arizona Coyotes (Ilves Tampere, Liiga)
26GP 9G 12A 21pts

While Raty didn’t enter his draft cycle with nearly as much fanfare as his younger brother, Islanders prospect Aatu Raty, he is making a name for himself with his strong play three seasons after he was selected. The Coyotes nabbed Raty in the fifth round of the 2019 draft, 151st overall out of Karpat’s junior team.

We are now three draft classes separated from that year and are getting to the point where it’s “put up or shut up” time for many prospects. There are entry-level contracts on the line, and these past two years have gone a long way in separating the wheat from the chaff among the players who populated the 2019 draft.

Just last season, it seemed that Raty might not have done enough to earn a deal from Arizona. The team’s exclusive rights to sign him expire on June 1st, 2023, and while Raty’s third season in Liiga was an improvement (he scored 22 points in 56 games) the Coyotes did not add him to their organization perhaps preferring to get another year to evaluate his progress overseas.

So far this year, Raty has made the prospect of letting his rights expire an uncomfortable one for Coyotes management. Raty has scored 21 points in 26 games for Ilves Tampere, helping out the second line of an offensive team that has been Liiga’s most productive by a wide margin.

He’s a player with a well-rounded skillset and a balanced offensive toolbox to go along with a high energy level. He has the potential to become an NHL winger, although he’ll probably slot in lower in his team’s lineup than he’s playing in Liiga.

The Coyotes have a pretty wide-open lineup as a result of their rebuilding efforts, meaning Raty could get NHL opportunities faster than he might in another organization. So, given the dramatic improvement in his offensive production, the decision over whether to sign Raty to an entry-level deal seems to have become a no-brainer.

William Eklund, LW, and Ozzy Wiesblatt, RW, San Jose Sharks (San Jose, AHL)
29GP 8G 13A 21pts for Eklund, 15GP 1G 3A 4pts for Wiesblatt

While Eklund and Wiesblatt were the Sharks’ first-rounders in back-to-back drafts, their development paths have progressed in wildly different directions.

Eklund, the seventh-overall pick in the 2021 draft out of Djurgarden in Sweden, has developed to expectations and maintained his status as the Sharks’ undisputed top prospect.

His first year after being drafted was a little difficult, as the young Djurgarden team he was a part of was relegated to HockeyAllsvenskan, the Swedish second division. But he did get a nine-game trial immediately out of training camp and scored four points in that span, flashing the potential that made him such a highly-touted draft pick. Additionally, his 14 points in 29 games in the SHL is a fine total for someone of his age.

Eklund’s major issue seemed to be his shooting, as he would often pass up shooting opportunities to try to find a passing play. Eklund’s biggest strength is his ability as an attacker in transition, and the lethality of his offense on the rush last year in the SHL was being compromised by his inability to score goals.

This year, Eklund decided to not play for Djurgarden in Allsvenskan and instead chose to try his luck in the AHL.

That choice has so far paid off, as Eklund has scored 21 points in 29 games, an encouraging total that ranks second on the team in scoring.

Even better than his scoring totals, though, have been Eklund’s development in terms of how he approaches creating offense.

Eklund has shown a greater eagerness to fire shots on net, and his improved shooting ability has led Barracuda head coach John McCarthy to deploy him as a one-timer threat on one of the circles on the Barracuda power play.

Helped by that role, Eklund had a recent stretch where he scored four goals in five games, a hot goal-scoring streak that seemed unthinkable just a year ago. If he can keep up his play, it’s definitely possible and maybe even likely that Eklund finds his way into a top-nine role for the Sharks in the spring.

While Eklund’s growth this season has been extremely encouraging, that’s not the case for Wiesblatt, the Sharks’ 2020 first-rounder. Wiesblatt finished his junior career last season in a relatively disappointing fashion, scoring at below a point-per-game rate in the regular season (41 points in 43 games) and notching just one point in three playoff contests.

He was battling a shoulder injury that eventually led to him being shut down for the season. While the injury he fought through is most definitely not his fault, it does not change the fact that his stock as a top prospect was on a downward trend late in his junior career.

That downward trend was emphasized by the fact that the WHL rival Wiesblatt was drafted closest to, 28th overall pick Ridly Greig, tore the WHL apart to the tune of 63 points in just 39 games. Both Wiesblatt and Greig are high-energy, physical players who attack with strength and tenacity. And yet while they play similar styles, Greig has firmly placed himself on the cusp of making the NHL while Wiesblatt looks headed in the other direction.

Wiesblatt began his professional career in earnest this fall with the Barracuda, albeit the start was delayed as he was a frequent healthy scratch. In late October, Wiesblatt get demoted to the team’s ECHL affiliate, the Wichita Thunder, in an effort to get him playing time. While Wiesblatt didn’t end up playing in the ECHL and was returned to the AHL roster, his inability to secure a regular role on a mediocre Barracuda team is troubling.

Wiesblatt has scored one goal and four points in 15 AHL games this year, operating in a limited role. The Barracuda have stressed patience with Wiesblatt, and a patient approach to his development is entirely fair. He is, after all, coming back from a campaign derailed by injury.

But even while acknowledging the need to be patient, the success of Eklund and fellow 2020 pick Thomas Bordeleau in their respective AHL careers has made feeling a little bit underwhelmed by Wiesblatt’s progress inevitable.

Jamieson Rees, C, Carolina Hurricanes (Chicago, AHL)
24GP 5G 15A 20pts

One of the most significant tests a prospect faces, one that can go a long way in determining whether that prospect truly has NHL upside, is the transition from playing against one’s peers at a junior level to playing against men in a professional setting.

Oftentimes, there are prospects who are able to thrive in a lower-intensity, less difficult junior setting, but find the habits they have built and their tried-and-true ways of playing to be ineffective at the professional level.

After last season, it seemed Rees might be headed in that sort of direction. After scoring at nearly a point-per-game rate in his draft year, Rees was selected 44th overall by Carolina. He followed that up by scoring 61 points in 39 games in his final junior season, but things got more difficult when he turned pro.

Rees turned pro with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves, a team somewhat notorious for their tendency to give premier opportunities to AHL veterans rather than their affiliated NHL club’s prospects. As an independently owned franchise, their choice to view the AHL as a league for winning rather than development is certainly respectable. And it’s worked for them too, as the Wolves are the defending Calder Cup champions.

But from Rees’ perspective, the unique difficulty prospects face in getting top-of-the-lineup opportunities in Chicago didn’t help his development, especially when combined with the injury issues he struggled with as well.

Last season, Rees’ second as a professional, he scored seven goals and 24 points on a stacked Wolves club. It seemed at that time that the 21-year-old prospect may not be able to translate his junior scoring numbers to the pro level. This year, though, the Wolves have struggled to play with the same degree of dominance they had last year, and Rees has gotten a larger opportunity than he’s had in years past.

With 20 points in 24 games, Rees has made the most of this opportunity. It’s definitely fair to wonder if Rees’ prior AHL campaigns could have been similarly successful to this one were he on a more development-oriented team, but it doesn’t appear that the Hurricanes’ management is concerned thinking about that.

Hurricanes assistant GM Darren Yorke spoke on Rees’ progress to The Athletic’s Corey Lavalette, saying: (subscription link)

Rees has battled some tough luck over the course of his amateur career and his pro career in terms of missing some time. And he’s been thrown into a high offensive role now and he’s running with it.

It’s certainly possible that this offensive jump isn’t something Rees is able to sustain and turn into a long-term NHL role. As is the case with all prospects, there remains a fair degree of uncertainty in his overall projection. But Rees’ physical, two-way style and noted ability to agitate and get under his opponents’ skin adds some depth to his profile.

That added dimension of his game sets him apart from some more traditional, straightforward high-scoring junior players, and could be what paves the way for his NHL role in the future.

Nikolai Kovalenko, RW, Colorado Avalanche (Nizhny Novgorod, KHL)
34GP 14G 16A 30pts

In the 2021-22 KHL season, there were just seven skaters with a minimum of 15 games played who managed to score at or above a point-per-game rate. Three of those players all came from the same team, SKA St. Petersburg, and another two were teammates on Dynamo Moscow.

In other words, the KHL is an extremely difficult league to stack points in. The vast majority of teams are led by scorers below the point-per-game threshold, and that difficulty in scoring points regularly is all the more present for players who are young and inexperienced.

So, when a young player comes along and manages to break through that difficulty and put up some impressive numbers, that production alone makes that player at least somewhat notable.

In the case of Kovalenko, the son of former NHLer Andrei Kovalenko, his impressive start to this season has made him one of the most intriguing prospects in a relatively thin Colorado Avalanche system.

Kovalenko spent last season with Ak Bars Kazan, and scored 14 points in 29 games as a 22-year-old KHL-er. Solid numbers, but nothing overwhelmingly impressive. This season, after a trade to Nizhny Novgorod, Kovalenko has made himself into a productive, top-of-the-lineup KHL forward.

The five-foot-ten, 185-pound winger uses his strong work rate and intelligent playmaking style to create offensive opportunities for his teammates, and he’s helped the Torpedo rank as one of the top-scoring teams in the KHL so far this year.

He’s within striking distance of that rarely-reached point-per-game plateau, and even if he doesn’t end up reaching there this season will remain an extremely impressive one. While there are still questions regarding whether Kovalenko’s game is translatable to North American ice, the most pressing issue he faces, from an NHL perspective, is availability.

The Avalanche will certainly want to add such a talented prospect to their organization, but Kovalenko could prefer to remain in the KHL until he is viewed as undoubtedly NHL-ready. It’s not uncommon KHL imports to bristle at the thought of spending major time in the minors, so one wonders if Kovalenko would rather remain in Russia than risk having to spend time with the AHL’s Colorado Eagles.

At this point, though, we don’t have any firm indication on which way Kovalenko is leaning, or when his KHL contract might expire, allowing the Avalanche to make their pitch to sign him.

What we do know, though, is that Kovalenko’s play this year has definitively raised his stock as a prospect, and that alone should be enough to keep Avalanche fans satisfied as we move deeper into the heart of the regular season.

Picture courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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