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Playoff Primer

PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders

at CDT | by 2 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders.

The opening game of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs will feature two teams on very different paths heading into the postseason. In this rematch of a 2019 Eastern Conference Second Round series, the Hurricanes and Islanders both have something to prove.

And, like that 2019 matchup which had just four total goals through its first two games, most would expect this series to be the most defensively inclined of the first round. With the Hurricanes struggling to put pucks in the net without their two best goal-scorers, though, will they be able to break through Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders’ ace in the hole, and avoid what could be one of the biggest upsets of the postseason?

Regular Season Performance

Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
NY Islanders: 42-31-9, 93 points, +21 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 28, 2022: NY Islanders 6, Carolina 2
December 10, 2022: Carolina 3, NY Islanders 0
January 21, 2023: Carolina 5, NY Islanders 2
April 2, 2023: NY Islanders 1, Carolina 2

Carolina takes the season series 3-1

Team Storylines

The question surrounding the Hurricanes is clear-cut: they’ll likely dominate the possession game in this series, but can they finish enough chances to win four out of seven games?

Goal-scoring has been the disease that’s plagued Carolina in playoffs past. In last year’s second-round elimination at the hands of the New York Rangers, Carolina only scored more than two goals in a game once, a 3-1 win in Game 5.

General manager Don Waddell made a pointed acquisition last summer to address the recurring concern by plucking Max Pacioretty away from the Vegas Golden Knights in a cap-dump move. Needless to say, it didn’t work out as planned, with back-to-back Achilles tears ending Pacioretty’s season and limiting him to just five games in a Carolina uniform.

With Andrei Svechnikov now out of the lineup, Carolina’s finishing touch has evaporated. Sebastian Aho’s pulled his weight with 36 goals this year, and Martin Necas’ career year has been a life-saving measure for the division champs. More will be needed out of support players like Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis, though, if Carolina wants to avoid an upset.

It’s an upset that more and more are surmising about publically, and for good reason. Sorokin has a legitimate claim to this year’s Vezina Trophy, and since the date of Svechnikov’s injury (March 11), Carolina is the only playoff team with a negative goal differential.

Despite Carolina’s weaknesses, the Islanders still have to execute well enough to win the series. Their 243 goals ranked just 23rd in the league and are the least among all playoff teams.

One key difference? The Islanders are getting healthy. Mathew Barzal is making his return to the lineup tomorrow night, settling on the wing alongside Anders Lee and Bo Horvat. The team’s top playmaking talent had been sidelined for almost two months with a lower-body injury.

With he and leading scorer Brock Nelson on two different lines, a fully healthy top six could be enough to crack an inconsistent Frederik Andersen in the crease for Carolina.

Prediction

With injuries playing a major factor in this series, this isn’t the David vs. Goliath matchup these two teams’ regular-season records suggest. The series will rely on opportunistic scoring to beat a stingy Hurricanes defense or an elite Islanders goalie, and could very easily see multiple momentum swings.

But despite Carolina’s suffocating pressure, the Islanders have a pointed history of eking things out in the postseason. With the momentum (and goaltending) on their side, expect some more playoff magic from a team that’s dealt with pressure all season long.

The prediction: Islanders win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 10 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Pacific Division matchup between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers.

A series that promises to be high scoring and hard fought will take place between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers in a rematch from a year ago. That series saw the Oilers take a lead with two blowout wins in Game 2 and 3 before falling behind 3-2 and then clawing back to win by allowing just two goals in the final two games. Connor McDavid carried the team to victory with 14 points in seven games and Mike Smith was great in goal with a .938 SV% in the series win.

The Kings were without Drew Doughty who was injured last season, but he is playing great hockey again with 52 points in 81 games this season. Adding Kevin Fiala to the lineup also gives the Kings a point-per-game player they did not have at their disposal a year ago. Doughty and Fiala give the Kings a big shot in the arm compared to a year ago, but the Oilers are playing some of the best hockey we have seen in Edmonton in decades.

Will it be the high-flying Oilers for a second consecutive season, or will the Kings exact some revenge from a first-round exit a year ago?

Regular Season Performance

Edmonton: 50-23-9, 109 points, +65 goal differential
Los Angeles: 47-25-10, 104 points, +23 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 16, 2022: Los Angeles 3, Edmonton 1

January 9, 2023: Los Angeles 6, Edmonton 3

March 30, 2023:Edmonton 2, Los Angeles 0

April 4, 2023: Edmonton 3, Los Angeles 1

Season series tied 2-2-0

Team Storylines

The Oilers enter the postseason with Connor McDavid riding one of the greatest offensive seasons we have witnessed. Scoring 64 goals and 153 points is something we saw in the 1980’s but is simply unheard of in today’s NHL. McDavid became just the sixth player in league history to score 150 points and the first to do it since Mario Lemieux in 1996.

Though he is well ahead of anyone else in the league, he is not the only Oiler piling up points this season. Leon Draisaitl scored 52 goals and 128 points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins added 37 goals and 104 points and Zach Hyman was over a point-per-game with 36 goals and 83 points in 79 games. Evander Kane missed significant time this season, but scored 16 goals and 28 points in 41 games and was a playoff beast a year ago, leading the postseason in goals with 13, even though the Oilers were eliminated in four straight games in the Western Conference Final.

Scoring is not, and never really was, an issue for the Oilers. The questions marks existed elsewhere, but have the Oilers patched those holes? They added Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, and he has been the defensive rock that they needed all along. Since adding Ekholm, the Oilers finished the season on an 18-2-1 run to ensure home-ice advantage in this series. He has been averaging well over 20 minutes of ice time per game and immediately rejuvenated the Oilers top-four defense along with Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard and Cody Ceci.

Do the Oilers have what it takes in goal to win a series? They thought they would be leaning on Jack Campbell at this time of year after signing him to a five-year contract with a $5MM annual cap hit just last summer. However, he struggled in his first season with the Oilers, posting a 3.41 GAA and a .888 SV%. Stuart Skinner has really taken over the starter’s role in the last quarter of the season, posting a 2.43 GAA and a .920 SV% since March 1 and giving the Oilers a reliable goaltender to lean on late in the season.

Another key to focus on is, will the Kings be able to slow down the offensive beast that is the Edmonton Oilers? A quick glance at their numbers show the Kings were not able to slow anyone down this season. They allowed 257 goals this season. The only playoff teams to allow more were the Florida Panthers and Oilers. It sure promises to be a high scoring series. With Doughty playing this time around and Vladislav Gavrikov acquired at the trade deadline, the Kings have a better chance of at least slowing down McDavid and Draisaitl. No one can stop those two, but if they are held to 7-9 points each in a series, it would force the Oilers depth pieces to add some scoring, which they are not always capable of doing.

What about the Kings goaltending? They did trade for a goaltender at the trade deadline and Joonas Korpisalo has been great for them. He played just 11 games after being acquired, but he had a 2.13 GAA and a .921 SV% to give the Kings confidence in a position that was a weakness for most of the season. If Korpisalo can continue to play like that in the first round, the Kings will be in good shape. But it is difficult for anyone to put up a .920 SV% against these Oilers, who were the highest scoring team in the NHL with 325 goals.

Special teams are always a key component in a playoff series and this will be no exception. The Oilers power play alone is enough to give goaltenders nightmares as it clicked at a 32.4% efficiency rate, which is the best power play percentage in NHL history. The Kings had a bottom ten penalty kill at 75.8%. That is not something that can be fixed overnight and could prove to be a huge problem against a team like the Oilers.

On the other hand, the Oilers penalty kill was not much better, killing off 77% of their penalties while the Kings power play converted on an impressive 25.3% of their chances. Staying out of the box is going to be key as neither team is strong while shorthanded, and both have the ability to do damage on the man advantage.

Prediction

The Kings have new pieces in place that should allow them to be more competitive this time around. Having Gavrikov and Doughty on defense, Korpisalo in goal as well as Phillip Danault who is one of the best shutdown centers in the league, should at least slow down McDavid a little bit. He is going to score on the power play, but if they can limit him at even strength, they will force the depth of the Oilers to step up, and they don’t have a lot of scoring behind their top four forwards. There won’t be two huge blowouts early in the series this time around.

The problem for the Kings is, the Oilers have addressed similar needs and now have Ekhlom as a defensive horse on the blue line and they are playing the best hockey we have seen out of any team in the past six weeks. McDavid and Draisaitl each averaged two points per game in the playoffs last spring, and both were somehow even better this season than ever before. Yes, they could use some depth scoring, but Mattias Janmark, Warren Foegele, Klim Kostin, Nick Bjugstad and Ryan McLeod give them reliable minutes even if they don’t score a ton. That can be left to the top two lines.

Yet another magical spring from McDavid and Draisaitl is about to begin, and they won’t be denied in round one. It will not be an easy one by any stretch, but the Kings offense just can’t match the Oilers scoring. Prediction: The Oilers win in six games.

PHR Playoff Primer: New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers

at CDT | by 5 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers.

There was a time in the 1990’s where it seemed like the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils would meet in the playoffs every spring. Now in 2023, they meet in the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. The last time the two teams met it was a dramatic back and forth six game Eastern Conference Finals series that ended with an Adam Henrique overtime goal to catapult the Devils into the Stanley Cup Finals.

What a difference a decade plus makes. The Devils haven’t won a series since that dramatic overtime victory, while the Rangers have won a lot of playoff hockey but haven’t been able to capture hockey’s ultimate prize. The battle of the Hudson River has always been a bitter rivalry, but it’s been a while since so much has been on the line for both teams.

The Devils and Rangers enter the playoffs poised to make a deep run, but only one will be able to escape the first round. This matchup may not be the most anticipated series in the first round, but it does seem like the series most likely to produce fireworks. The Devils believe they are destined for greatness, and they probably are, but will that happen this year, or will the Rangers make another deep playoff run?

Regular Season Performance

New Jersey Devils: 52-22-8, 112 points, +65 goal differential
New York Rangers: 47-22-13, 107 points, +58 goal differential.

Head-To-Head

November 28, 2022: New York 3, New Jersey 5

December 12, 2022: New York 4, New Jersey 3 (OT)

January 7, 2023: New Jersey 4, New York 3 (OT)

March 30, 2023: New Jersey 2, New York 1

New Jersey takes the season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

The Devils and Rangers franchises have had so much in common over the years, and even still do to some degree. Both franchises loaded up for these playoffs, can score in bunches and expect to go deep in the playoffs. But that is where the similarities end. They are built differently, have different experience, and have different strengths and weaknesses.

New Jersey plays with a ton of speed and skill, they push the pace and come at you in waves. But they are small. New York on the other hand plays big, they come at you with force and can crash over top of you. But they play slow in comparison. In a seven-game series it’s hard to predict who will bend first, will New York wear New Jersey down with their physicality? Or will the Devils tire out the Rangers with their pace? Advantage New Jersey.

On the backend, both teams boast strong blue lines. They both have shutdown defenseman, puck movers, point producers, speed, skill, and grit. The Rangers defense can do it all, they are one of the most elite units in the league, if not the most elite. They can’t move the puck quite as good as the Devils unit can, but they are much more physical. And in the playoff’s physicality can sometimes mean getting that extra inch of space to make a play, or providing that big hit that completely changes a series, just ask Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Advantage New York.

In goal, the comparisons dry up. New York boasts arguably the best goaltender in the world in Igor Shesterkin. But, after having a historic season last year, Shesterkin has looked human for much of this year. He has been up and down, evidenced by his drop in save percentage from .935 last year to .916 this season. For the Rangers to beat the Devils in a seven-game series, Shesterkin will need to play at a Vezina award winning level. Over in the Devils net Vitek Vanecek has given the Devils something they were desperately looking for, league average goaltending. Vanecek’s save percentage this year was .911 which was just a tick above his career average coming into this season. While Vanecek has never had an experience like this before and will have to deal with nerves, Shesterkin looked very human in last year’s playoffs and for long stretches of this past regular season. Despite his up and down play this year, one would have to believe that the goaltending advantage belongs to New York.

I mentioned star power earlier and both teams boast a ton of it up front and on the back end. The stars aren’t all home grown either, both teams have made significant trades over the last 12 months to bring in major pieces that they hope can give them that final push. The Rangers brought in Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko at the trade deadline, and while neither player his lit up the scoresheet, they have both provided secondary scoring. Kane has produced 12 points in 19 games since joining the Rangers, while Tarasenko has 21 points in 31 games. On the Devils side, they acquired arguably the biggest piece at the deadline in Timo Meier. Meier has also struggled to fit in but seems to be finally finding his footing. The former San Jose Shark has 14 points in 21 games since joining the Devils.

Ironically, the line that could set these teams apart might be a group of homegrown talent for the New York Rangers. Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko were dynamite together in the playoffs last season, particularly in the first round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They were a difference maker on a nightly basis. This season all three players have hovered around the 40-point mark during the regular season. If the trio can dial it back to 2022 and produce anything close to last year’s playoff magic it could be the difference between a Rangers series win, or a Devils series win.

Prediction

It’s hard to predict who will win a series when the teams are this evenly matched. When a matchup like this does occur, you must imagine that it will come down to whichever team can get their goaltender on a heater. Last year the Rangers outlasted Pittsburgh because the Penguins had to rely on their third string goaltender. This year they’ll have to hope that Shesterkin can return to his Vezina winning form to get past the Devils.

The other element that comes into play is experience. New York has a ton of experienced playoff performers, and the Devils are green. In a toss-up, this could be the piece that pushes one team past the other.

The prediction: Rangers win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 4 Comments

With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Atlantic Division matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning.

In what may be the most hotly anticipated series of the First Round, two teams with lofty expectations will clash for the second straight year. Both teams have seen significant roster turnover since last year’s battle, with many new depth pieces looking to make impacts for Toronto, while Tampa returns without some members of the ancillary core that has gotten them to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.

The series presents a major test for both teams. They both enter the playoffs on wildly different trajectories based on the last few weeks of their regular season play — and those trajectories both contrast with the auras surrounding their recent playoff performance.

The potential reward for winning this war of attrition? The record-slaying Boston Bruins.

Regular Season Performance

Toronto: 50-21-11, 111 points, +57 goal differential
Tampa: 46-30-6, 98 points, +29 goal differential

Head-To-Head

December 3, 2022: Toronto 3, Tampa Bay 4 (OT)
December 20, 2022: Tampa Bay 1, Toronto 4
April 11, 2023: Toronto 4, Tampa Bay 3

Toronto takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

Anything else said about the immense pressure the Maple Leafs face to win a series would be a retread. How they avoid the mistakes of years past, though, combined with how they’ve addressed perceived weaknesses this season, is worth a deeper look.

In last season’s loss to the Lightning, Tampa held Toronto to four goals in Games 6 and 7. In 2021, Montreal held the Maple Leafs to three goals in the final two games. In the 2020 Qualifying Round against the Columbus Blue Jackets, they were shut out in the deciding Game 5. Offense evaporating at crucial times has kept the Maple Leafs from deep playoff runs.

The bulk of the pressure will again rest on the core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander to keep up their production as the series progresses. But Toronto’s acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly before the trade deadline should not be overlooked as a potential antidote to their offensive woes. He’s seemingly recaptured some offensive confidence despite decreased ice time, registering 11 points in 13 games since the trade and six points in five games since returning from a hand injury that kept him out for most of March. Combined with his winning pedigree and playoff experience, he’s one of two main x-factors for Toronto in this matchup.

The other is goaltending — and the potential for a surprise Game 1 starter. While Ilya Samsonov is still expected to start after his breakout campaign, he missed the last two games with minor injuries and, in his place, rookie Joseph Woll has posted spectacular numbers in limited action (6-1-0, .932 SV%, 2.16 GAA). The chances of the 24-year-old seeing playoff action are greater than zero, especially given Samsonov’s brief and shaky playoff history with the Washington Capitals. If Matt Murray clears concussion protocol and can provide an experienced relief option, that’s a bonus.

For Tampa Bay, this series represents the start of what the team hopes will be another deep playoff run, one that results in the franchise’s third Stanley Cup championship in four years. The main factor Tampa has going for them? They were in this exact position one year ago, and found a way to fend off Toronto in a grueling series. They created a blueprint for themselves to follow, just as they’ve done for the numerous teams they’ve eliminated over the past three seasons. That year-to-year playoff consistency is what makes them such a daunting first-round opponent despite their relatively inconsistent regular season.

Just like it is for Toronto, a major storyline for the Lightning is goaltending, only for different reasons. For Toronto, the question is whether Samsonov’s regular season success will translate to the playoffs, where he has been shaky in the past. For Tampa, the main question will be if the team will be able to once again count on playoff brilliance from Andrei Vasilevskiy after a regular season that was, while strong, not the dominant year many might have expected from him. The Maple Leafs have a lethal set of forwards and impressive depth.

If Vasilevskiy can make scoring goals feel impossible in the most important moments — just as Carey Price did for the Canadiens in 2021 — then Tampa will once again triumph. But if he can’t, and he proves to be more the mortal, beatable goalie he was at times this regular season than the impenetrable brick wall he was in the Lightning’s two Stanley Cup runs, then the Maple Leafs could finally get the playoff series win they’ve been waiting for.

Prediction

As most playoff series typically do, this battle is likely to come down to goaltending. On paper, Vasilevskiy is easily the more accomplished and reliable goalie. And if he shuts down Toronto’s scorers and Tampa once again proves victorious, that wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

But Toronto came close last year. They drew blood and nearly knocked out the eventual Prince of Wales winners, pushing them to the brink in a way no other Eastern Conference team could. Now, they’ve added a Conn Smythe Trophy winner, revamped their defense, added experienced depth forwards, and have gotten some of the best goaltending they’ve seen since Frederik Andersen’s departure.

This series could truly go either way, but at least at this moment, this year feels different. The prediction: Maple Leafs win in six games.

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