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P.K. Subban

Central Notes: Saros, Subban, Fabbri, Anisimov

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The Nashville Predators have succeeded this year based on the play of Vezina Trophy winner Pekka Rinne’s play. While Rinne has posted a 14-5-1 record, a 1.96 GAA and a .929 save percentage, his backup Juuse Saros, who many felt might share net responsibilities with the 36-year-old Rinne this year, hasn’t fared nearly as well with an 8-5 record, a 3.14 GAA and a .893 save percentage.

However, while Saros’ numbers suggest that he’s struggling this season, head coach Peter Laviolette said Saturday that he believes that the team isn’t playing well when the 23-year-old is in net, according to The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required).

“I’m going to be perfectly honest. I think that we’ve played lousy in front of (Saros),” Laviolette said. “There’s got to be accountability to the 18 guys that go out in front of him. Just too many odd-man rushes, too many point-blank chances, and that’s got to stop. And when that stops, he’s going to feel better and look better in there. There’s just too much coming at him.”

While Vingan writes that there is some truth to the comment as the team has had some of their worst defensive showings with Saros in net, including losses to San Jose on Nov. 13, to St. Louis on Nov. 23 and Calgary on Dec. 8. However, when looking even deeper, Vingan notes that both goalies have faced the same number of quality shots per game and it’s just Rinne’s amazing play that has separated the two goaltenders.

  • Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos suggested (via The Athletic’s Adam Vingan)that the unknown injury that Nashville Predators defenseman P.K. Subban is dealing with has nothing to do with the suspected back injury that he dealt with two years ago. Subban has missed 15 games this year with the undisclosed injury, but Kypreos said that Subban could be out for a bit longer. “It’s a real conservative approach by Nashville to keep him out. They think a 50-plus (game) regular season for P.K. could benefit him,” Kypreos said Saturday night on Hockey Night in Canada.
  • Lou Korac of NHL.com writes that oft-injured forward Robby Fabbri said he still should have a better idea around Christmas of his timetable of returning from his separated shoulder injury. “We’re just taking it day by day. I’m listening to the shoulder. What I do that day depends on how I wake up feeling and how I felt from the day before.”
  • Jon Lieser of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that while he’s not playing today, Chicago Blackhawks forward Artem Anisimov is close to returning to action. The 30-year-old should be eligible to be activated off IR before Tuesday’s game as he continues his recovery from a concussion suffered by a hit from Montreal’s Shea Weber on Dec. 9. “He looks like he’s closer to coming back, so hopefully he can,” coach Jeremy Colliton said at the morning skate. “I haven’t heard that he’s ready-ready, but we think he’s not far away.”

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Nashville Predators

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads past the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. Let’s take a look at what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Nashville Predators.  Click here for the other articles in this series. 

What are the Predators most thankful for?

Depth scoring. One of the big strengths the team has is their depth scoring as they have solid lines throughout and scoring seems evenly distributed. Scoring is not an issue as the team averages 3.19 goals per game. The team is ranked 12th in scoring and while only one player has more than 10 goals this season (Filip Forsberg with 14), the team has 12 players with at least five goals and a handful of depth, but quality players who are producing offense, including Craig Smith, Ryan Hartman, Colton Sissons, Calle Jarnkrok and Austin Watson just to name a few. With so much in the tank, the team should be well rested when the playoffs approach.

Who are the Predators most thankful for?

Many people believed that while goalie Pekka Rinne was coming off a Vezina Trophy-winning season last year, there might be a decline in the veteran’s play after a disappointing playoffs and the fact that the goaltender is 36 years old and cannot be expected to keep up those numbers forever. Fortunately for Predators’ fans, Rinne has been outstanding once again as despite missing some time with an injury early in the season, he has amassed a 1.96 GAA in 22 games with a .929 save percentage.

Others felt that Rinne might slowly lose his job to goalie-in-waiting Juuse Saros, but so far that hasn’t been the case. The team has been using Rinne quite often and rely on him for the big games. Saros has appeared in just 13 games this season, many of which came during the time that Rinne missed due to injury.

What would the Predators be even more thankful for?

Despite their success due to their depth players, the team has to hope that they can get some of their top players back from injury. The team’s top goal scorer is Forsberg, but the winger has been out with for more than two weeks and could be out for double that with an upper-body injury. The team hopes to get defenseman P.K. Subban back soon, who has missed a large chunk of the season with an unknown injury, while Viktor Arvidsson has also missed quite a bit of time to injury as well. If the team could get healthy, they may have a chance to fare even better in the Central Division, even though they are just one point out of first place.

What should be on the Predators’ Holiday Wish List?

The continued development of Eeli Tolvanen. The team had high hopes when they brought Tolvanen over from the KHL at the age of 19. He’s immensely talented and showed some of those skills off in a brief callup when he tallied a goal and an assist in four games while filling in for several of the team’s significant injuries. That, of course, couldn’t last and he was immediately sent down after Kyle Turris returned off the IR. Many people want Tolvanen to remain with the team, but in reality it’s a waste to play him few minutes in Nashville on a bottom-six line. Until he can outplay someone on the top-six, he needs to spend as much playing time as possible in the AHL until his skills can surpass one of their top players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nashville Predators Place Filip Forsberg On IR; Out 4-6 Weeks

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The Nashville Predators big name injury list continues. The team has placed winger Filip Forsberg on injured reserve with an upper-body injury and will be out for four to six weeks, according to The Athletic’s Adam Vingan. Already without Viktor Arvidsson, P.K. Subban and Kyle Turris, Forsberg is just another big loss for a team that has lost three of their last four games.

While he wasn’t forced from the game, Forsberg injured his hand during Thursday’s 3-0 loss to Arizona where the 24-year-old played a season-low 15:08 of ice time. He then missed practice Friday and he didn’t participate in Saturday morning’s optional skate. Forsberg’s injury means that 34.77 percent of the team’s cap hit is on injured reserve, according to Vingan.

Forsberg has been having a solid season so far this far this year, posting 14 goals in 26 games this season for the Predators, good enough for the team lead. Those 14 goals are way ahead of the pace he has had in previous years. He scored 26 goals a year ago and broke 30 goals the previous two years before that.

 

Shea Weber Ahead Of Schedule With Injury Rehab

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After 33-year-old Shea Weber underwent knee surgery this off-season, the Montreal Canadiens announced an expected return date of mid-December and even that seemed optimistic. Yet, Weber practiced with the team for the first time this week and now a mid-December return looks very realistic if not excessive. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that Weber is considered to be “two weeks ahead” of schedule and could possibly make his season debut by the end of November or first week of December.

Weber is entering his third season with the Canadiens since coming over from the Nashville Predators in the blockbuster trade that sent P.K. Subban packing. Weber’s first season in Montreal was a huge success; the six-time All-Star registered 42 points and a +20 rating in 78 games. Last season was quite different, as the torn meniscus in his right knee limited Weber to just 26 games.

When Weber returns to the ice, it will likely be more than eleven months since his last game action. The Athletic’s Arpon Basu asks the fair question of whether or not the Canadiens should expect Weber to be the same player when he returns. Perhaps the even better questions should be just how much Montreal should ask of Weber once he is deemed healthy. Normally, a player of Weber’s age and experience is often expected to jump right back in to his regular role. However, Weber still has eight years left remaining on his contract and the Habs need to consider his long-term health just as much as his immediate impact. Allowing the veteran to ease back into his role gives the team the best chance to once again enjoy his Norris-caliber play, even if it is not this season. Montreal is certainly excited to have Weber back, but considering how well the team has played early on this year, they can afford to give their captain all the time he needs to get back to full strength.

Atlantic Notes: Pacioretty, Luongo, Boedker

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If Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty is being genuine about wanting to stay in Montreal for the rest of his career, the team has a lot of thinking to do whether the 29-year-old winger is worth a long-term deal. Sure, he had posted five straight 30-goal seasons (if you don’t include the strike-shortened 2012-13 year), but after a 16-goal campaign last season and the fact that he’ll be 30 when he starts his new contract, there are a lot of variables that the Canadiens need to consider after the team handed goaltender Carey Price an eight-year, $84MM extension a year ago that’s already starting to look questionable and it hasn’t even started yet.

One obvious way for things to work out perfectly would be if Pacioretty can rebound and put up another banner season. Another 30-goal performance would undoubtedly make the 2017-18 season look like a fluke and would make it a whole lot easier to sign him to a new contract, according to Montreal Gazette’s Pat Hickey. However, the scribe also points out that he must improve on his mental game as well as Pacioretty has a tendency to be streaky and get down on himself when he’s not producing. It’s likely, if the veteran captain can’t make that adjustment, he’ll be heading out of town just like Andrei Markov, Alexander Radulov and P.K. Subban did in past years.

  • NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley writes that veteran goaltender Roberto Luongo is focusing more on his health this year after two injury-plagued campaigns that has kept him out of 89 games. The 39-year-old goaltender, who will turn 40 during the season, still has four years remaining on the 12-year, $64MM deal he signed with Vancouver in 2009. He has spent more than 90 minutes a day of extra time with goaltending coach Robb Tallas, focusing on his surgically repaired hip from 2016 and the groin tear he sustained last season. “Back in the day, I used to show up half an hour before I went on the ice and just throw the gear on, but these are the things I need to do be ready, to be loose and make sure everything is working properly,” Luongo said. “The main thing is I understand what I need to do as far as preparation to be where I need to be to be healthy. After my hip surgery, once I started feeling good, I kind of neglected it. You think you are back to normal, but you are not. You always have to keep on it to make sure you keep it strong and loose.” While he’s missed quite a bit of time, Luongo’s numbers haven’t suffered as he posted a .929 save percentage and three shutouts in 35 appearances.
  • Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Ottawa Senators are considering using newly acquired winger Mikkel Boedker as a first-line option alongside Mark Stone and Matt Duchene next season. Boedker, who was acquired as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the San Jose Sharks, has posted up-and down numbers the last several years, including a 10-goal season in 2016-17 and then 15-goal season a year ago. The scribe writes that putting Boedker on the first line will be a dangerous combination as Boedker isn’t a great two-way player and historically is a player that thrives on the power play, but rarely during even strength.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:

Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining

As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.

Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining

The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.

Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining

Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.

Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining

For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining

When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.

Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining

I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.

Nashville Predators: None

GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.

New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining

The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining

The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.

New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining

Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining

No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk’s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.

Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…

 

Central Notes: Seguin, Parise, Trouba

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The Dallas Stars have a tough road ahead of them. With new inspiring head coach Jim Montgomery ready to take the reins in Dallas, the team is eager to force their way to the top of the Central Division, but they also know that if the team can’t sign star Tyler Seguin to an extension sometime this year, everything they’ve worked for could fall apart.

The 26-year-old star is coming off a career-high 40 goals, but has also seen his team not reach the playoffs in three of his last four seasons. On top of that, Seguin has not signed an extension as of yet, something that could have happened on July 1. NHL.com’s Mike Heika writes that while Seguin has been careful about what he says about his next contract, he has expressed his love for the city.

“My focus is I have another year with the Dallas Stars, so there is no real thought of thinking of other teams or thinking of free agency,” Seguin said. “My focus is getting ready to play this year … I love it here. My objective is I want to win a championship here. I love Dallas, it’s home to me. So that’s my No. 1 goal.”

Heika writes that one obstacle is the team is hesitant to sign any player to a higher AAV than the deal they gave Jamie Benn back in 2016. Unfortunately, Seguin might easily be able to pass that mark as John Tavares recently signed for an $11MM AAV and with salaries increasing yearly, that could be an issue that Dallas might have to re-examine.

  • Dane Mizutani of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press writes that Minnesota Wild winger Zach Parise, who suffered a fractured sternum just three games into the playoffs, says he is 100 percent now and will be ready for training camp. In fact, the 33-year-old feels so good that he has decided to participate in Da Beauty League, a weekly 4-on-4 league, to get himself back into game shape after suffering the injury. Parise, who was one of the top scorers for Minnesota late in the season, including scoring 12 goals over the final 18 games and then three more goals in the first three games of the playoffs, will be a key piece for the Wild to compete for a playoff spot next season.
  • Scott Billeck of NBC Sports writes that the Winnipeg Jets are likely going to have to pay up to sign restricted free agent Jacob Trouba and predicts the team will hand him an eight-year deal. The real question is how much will the team have to pay for Trouba, who has developed into one of the best top defensive lines next to Josh Morrissey. Trouba’s numbers may not look impressive, but he had career numbers in assists per 60 minutes at 1.03 and points per 60 minutes at 1.22. Those numbers actually compare to elite defensemen like Victor Hedman, Drew Doughty and P.K. Subban. Those numbers could bring his pricetag to a very high number.

The Salary Cap Implications Of A Shea Weber Early Retirement

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When Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110MM offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012, everyone knew right away that it would end badly. Yes, Weber was 27 years old and one of the top defensemen in the league, but the contract was top-heavy and carried a $7.86MM cap hit through his age-40 season. The chances of him playing to a level matching that value over a full 14 years was very slim. The Flyers knew this and specifically structured it in a way that they hoped would scare the Nashville Predators and frugal GM David Poile away – it didn’t. The Predators had just watched Ryan Suter walk in free agency and couldn’t afford to let Weber leave as well. They matched the deal and held on to their superstar defenseman.

When Weber was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens for P.K. Subban in 2016, the risk in Weber’s contract increased exponentially. The league had since banned all similarly long-term contracts – setting a limit of seven years on the open market and eight years for an extension –  nevertheless the front-loaded, cap-circumventing type that Weber had signed. To combat teams continuing to front-load contracts, the NHL implemented salary cap recapture penalties. This system punishes teams for lengthening contracts with low-salary seasons in order to lower the cap hit during prime years by issuing a salary cap charge if the player retires prior to the end of the contract, thereby negating the years that lowered his cap hit. The calculation is the difference in total salary and total cap hit over the course of the contract with which the player played with the team, divided by the number of years remaining on the contract after retirement. In Weber’s case, the scenario looks like this:

Year           Team           Cap Hit           Salary           Difference
2012-13        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2013-14        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2014-15        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2015-16        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2016-17        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2017-18        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2018-19        MTL             $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2019-20       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2020-21       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2021-22       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2022-23       MTL*           $7.857MM        $3MM          -$4.857MM
2023-24       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2024-25       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2025-26       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM

So far over the course of Weber’s contract, both Nashville and Montreal have paid him far beyond what his cap hit would suggest. If Weber was to retire today, they would both be penalized. Nashville’s total penalty is $24.572MM, while Montreal’s is fluid. However, next season marks a drop for Weber below his cap number for the remaining eight years of his contract. Now, Weber is not going to retire this off-season. However, the chances that he retires early are very high. Earlier this week, it was reported that Weber had undergone a second off-season surgery and would likely be out until mid-season. Many expected when Weber was traded to Montreal that he still had many years left of strong play in him, but it appears that the deterioration of his body has already begun. Facing a decreasing salary for the remainder of his contract and concerns about his long-term health, it would be no surprise to see Weber retire in the next two years or so nevertheless by the end of the remaining eight years. By year, here is how the penalties would play out for both Nashville and Montreal:

If Weber retires before:      Penalty per year – NSH         Penalty per year – MTL
2019-20                                          $3.51MM                                              $918K
2020-21                                          $4.1MM                                                $762K
2021-22                                          $4.91MM                                              $543K
2022-23                                          $6.14MM                                             $215K
2023-24                                           $8.19MM                                             None
2024-25                                           $12.29MM                                           None
2025-26                                           $24.57MM                                           None

Obviously, the Predators have a lot to lose if Weber retires early. It is very unlikely that Weber, if he makes it that far, is likely to retire with one or even two years left on his contract. At that point, it is likely the Canadiens would just place him on long-term injured reserve to finish his career, as has become a growing trend in the NHL. However, if Weber is unable to get over the injuries that have plagued him in Montreal, could he call it quits within the next few years and stick Nashville with a $3.5-$5MM yearly penalty? Absolutely. It is a scary possibility for the Predators and a situation worth watching as Weber battles back from injury yet again next season and beyond.

All salary and cap figures are approximations. Data courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

Poll: What Kind Of Extension Is Predators’ Ryan Ellis Worth?

at CDT | by 3 Comments

With top defensemen getting locked up to big, long-term deals everywhere, one only has to look around the league to see who is next. The most obvious target would be Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, who will be wrapping up the final year of his five-year, $12.5MM deal. Ellis, who is one of the core of Nashville’s talented back end, is one of the most underpaid blueliners in the league at $2.5MM AAV, should be in line for a great extension. After all, many of his defensive teammates are already well-paid, including P.K. Subban ($9MM for four more years), Roman Josi ($4MM for two more years), and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM for four more years).

Nashville claims that locking up the 27 year old is the team’s top priority this offseason. Yet little has happened. However, how much is he worth, asks Adam Vingan of the Tennessean? While two of the most significant extensions went to Los Angeles’ Kings Drew Doughty (eight years, $11MM AAV) and Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $8.25MM AAV), Ellis likely doesn’t fit into that category. Therefore, Vingan writes that Nashville must compare Ellis’ play with several other tiers of defenseman that have recently signed new deals. The most likely comparables for Ellis will come down to the recent contracts signed by Washington Capitals’ John Carlson (eight years, $8MM AAV) and Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ryan McDonagh (eight years, $6.75MM AAV). However is he as good as those two?

The next tier would be contracts handed out a few years ago that could compare, such as Pittsburgh Penguins’ Kris Letang (eight years, $7.25MM AAV), Erik Johnson (seven years, $6MM AAV) and Anaheim Ducks’ Cam Fowler (eight years, $6.5MM AAV). Ellis’ stats are challenging to look when attempting to compare to any of those defensemen. Offensively, he’s never put up 40 points in a season yet, coming close once with 38 points (16 of those were goals). However, after missing the first half of this past season after undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Ellis’ stats took a jump when he put up 32 points in 44 games, suggesting that his offense is starting to emerge. With his defense never under question, the Predators must come up with a number soon.

So what range should Ellis fall into?

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Kings To Sign Drew Doughty To Eight-Year Extension

at CDT | by 7 Comments

July 1: The Kings have officially announced the contract, signing Doughty to an eight-year, $88MM contract extension. The deal will kick in for the 2018-19 season, and make Doughty the highest-paid defenseman in the league, barring an even bigger extension being signed before then.

June 29: A major impending free agent is about to be off the market, but it’s not a member of the 2018 class, but the 2019 class. When July 1st arrives and players with expiring contracts after next season are first eligible to sign extensions, Los Angeles defenseman Drew Doughty is expected to re-sign with the Kings. TSN Insider Pierre LeBrun reports that the two sides put the finishing touches on a max eight-year extension today that will be officially signed on Sunday. No financial terms have been disclosed.

The Kings are undoubtedly one of the teams that benefited the most from the massive salary cap spike this off-season. That added flexibility allowed L.A. to add much-needed scoring in the form of Ilya Kovalchuk without losing the breathing room needed to retain Doughty. For a time, many speculated that Doughty would test free agency next summer, but over the past few months the Norris Trophy-winner has made it clear that he would prefer to stay with the Kings. The team’s acquisition of Kovalchuk and continued search for talent this off-season was likely the very last boost of confidence that Doughty needed to re-up in L.A.

Doughty now joins fellow defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson of the Arizona Coyotes and center Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks as potential superstar free agents who will instead sign on with their current teams as soon as possible. Doughty is the biggest name so far and, if previous reports prove true, will soon be the highest paid defenseman in hockey. Doughty has gone on the record as saying that he would like to be paid more than Nashville Predators blue liner P.K. Subban, who is currently the highest-paid defenseman in the league at $9MM AAV. LeBrun’s TSN colleague Darren Dreger is among many speculating that deal will land in the realm of $11MM per year over the eight years, which would make him the new top dog among defenders and the second-highest paid player in the league – at least until Erik Karlsson signs his next contract.

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