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PHR Panel: Taylor Hall’s Future

at CDT | by 18 Comments

We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the future of a pending free agent.

Q: Which team is the best fit for Taylor Hall in 2020-21?

Brian La Rose: 

Hall has not done himself any favors this season when it comes to helping his market value. It wasn’t crazy to think that a big year could have had him thinking about a deal similar to the one Artemi Panarin received but now, he’ll come well short of that and has managed just 27 goals in 98 games over the last two seasons.

At this stage, Hall could still fit in on a number one line but is better off as a matchup-beating second liner and that’s where his best fit is. But the teams where he’d be in that role are largely cap-strapped and a flattened or reduced salary cap will only make that more challenging; even Arizona is going to have a hard time keeping him around unless they find a way to get some cap relief.

With all of that said, I think Columbus could be the best fit among teams that can afford him in free agency. Their cap situation is pretty clean and they have some sizable deals coming off the books in 2021 that would allow them to mitigate some of the risk of a long-term deal that Hall will likely still get. The Blue Jackets are a team on the rise with some young talent that could push Hall into more of a secondary role as his contract progresses while in the short term, he’d be an offensive upgrade to a team that has struggled to score this year.

Holger Stolzenberg:

Usually when a team goes out and acquires a star player just before that player hits free agency, I assume that the player, this time Taylor Hall, will sign a long-term deal. Or at least that’s how it feels. The only recent exception I can think of is Matt Duchene when he got traded to Columbus. However, that move seemed more like a gamble and when neither Panarin, nor Sergei Bobrovsky re-signed, Duchene opted not to.

However, I get a similar feeling from Hall. While the situation is quite different for an Arizona Coyotes team that does seem to be up-and-coming, the team struggled once acquiring Hall with a 14-17-4 record—although much of those struggles had to do with their goaltending injury issues.

Hall has been on losing teams throughout almost his entire career and likely is getting tired of it. He has appeared in just one playoff series, losing four of the five games that he played. He might be more interested at this point in his career to sign with a top playoff team because of that.

The best option might be the Colorado Avalanche. While they have a lot of money invested in Mikko Rantanen as well as Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, the team should have the cap space to lock Hall up as a top-six winger who could turn the Avalanche into Stanley Cup frontrunners for many years to come.

Zach Leach:

Every team in the NHL can and will try to make a case that Hall is a fit on their roster. But which team is the best fit for Hall? At this point in his career, Hall deserves to paid his fair value and to compete in the postseason year in and year out. At first glance, the only team with the cap space and the talent level to make that happen is the Colorado Avalanche. They are the likely favorites to land Hall this summer.

However, you can never rule out the hometown team. While Hall moved to Ontario as a teen, he spent most of his childhood in Calgary. The Flames have a surprising amount of cap space this off-season for a team with a considerable amount of talent. Most expect that they could use that room to replace the potential losses of defensemen T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic, they could opt to go in a different direction and supplement their scoring, especially after down years from many of their top-six forwards. Consider the possibility of compliance buyouts and the removal of Milan Lucic’s contract and Calgary could have even more spending power. Hall would be able to land the contract he has earned and play for a winning team with the added comfort of a familiar city, no less. The Flames are a dark horse option, but a good fit.

Gavin Lee:

You can bet that Hall will have his eyes set on a playoff team in free agency, but how many playoff teams will have their eyes set on him? The Blue Jackets, Avalanche and Flames are all good fits if they can make the money work, but I have an outside-the-box idea that may just be my favorite fit of them all.

In 2007, long before he was the Hart Trophy winner, a World Championship gold medalist or the first-overall NHL draft pick, he was selected in a different kind of draft. Hall was the second pick in the OHL priority draft, nabbed by the Windsor Spitfires who had gone 18-43-7 the previous year. Hall would burst onto the junior scene in 2007-08 as a rookie, scoring 45 goals and 84 points in just 63 games with Windsor. He, along with a second-year head coach that had only recently retired from the NHL, turned the Spitfires into a powerhouse that would go on to win consecutive Memorial Cups in 2009 and 2010. Hall was named the tournament’s MVP both times.

That coach, who had struggled so mightily in his first year leading the Spitfires, was none other than Bob Boughner. Boughner was given the reins of the San Jose Sharks this season after Peter DeBoer was let go and now has the “upper hand” to land the full-time job moving forward. If he is hired, what better player to try and bring the Sharks back to contention than his old prodigy from the OHL?

Sure, the Sharks aren’t in a great financial situation moving forward because of some hefty contracts they have previously given out, but it’s clear that they won’t be rebuilding next year. GM Doug Wilson has always been willing to go after the big fish and perhaps bringing in another top-flight winger (along with some improved health from Erik Karlsson) could jump the Sharks right back into the playoff hunt next season.

PHR Panel: Assessing Some AHL Standouts

at CDT | by 3 Comments

We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on a prospect that made his debut in the AHL this season.

Q: Name a 2019-20 AHL rookie that will have a strong NHL career

Brian La Rose:

Plenty of the top prospects in the AHL got a sniff of NHL action this season but someone who didn’t sits atop my list in Edmonton defenseman Evan Bouchard. While he had a brief recall, he didn’t get into any game action and instead spent the season honing his craft with AHL Bakersfield. That time was certainly well-spent as he worked to hone the defensive side of his game. He may need some more work in that regard but when Bouchard becomes an NHL regular, he’s going to make an impact quickly.

Offensively-skilled defensemen are getting more and more room to try to create offense and that’s Bouchard’s top skill. He was dominant at the junior level and had a solid first pro campaign with the Condors as well. Size and strength won’t be an issue for him either as he checks in at 6’3. These all work in his favor for becoming an impact player quickly.

There’s a case to be made that Bouchard could be Edmonton’s top offensive blueliner as soon as he’s in their lineup. Picture him setting up the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and complementing them on the power play. That’s a recipe for running up the points right there which will make him a very important part of their core for many years to come. If he’s as productive as I think he can be in that system, it won’t be too long before he’s a highly-paid part of that core either.

Holger Stolzenberg:

While I do like players like Vegas’ Lucas Elvenes and Florida’s Owen Tippett, I have quite a few doubts on whether either player will even be given a real chance to become a top player for their teams. However, when I look at Anaheim Ducks forward Max Comtois, I see a player who could really have a nice NHL career.

The 21-year-old was already highly-touted, being a second-round pick back in 2017 and impressed out of camp quickly one year later, making the roster out of training camp, while the team allowed the forward to burn the first year of his entry-level deal by allowing him to play 10 games (he had seven points that year). When the team eventually sent him to the QMJHL, he dominated there in 2018-19.

This year has been even more successful for Comtois, who split time in both the AHL to develop his skills, while getting some practical time with the Ducks as well. Comtois finished with nine goals and 24 points in 31 AHL games as a rookie, while picking up AHL Rookie of the Month in February. He added another five goals and 11 points in 29 games and with the team in a full rebuild currently, Comtois will get every opportunity to take on a much bigger role next year and can be a constant in their lineup for years with the success he’s had so far in his young career.

Zach Leach: 

If you want to find a prospect who looks like a perfect fit for his club’s style and culture, as well as long-term plans, look no further than Boston’s Jack Studnicka. The 2017 second-round pick is a young clone of Patrice Bergeron and looks like he could become a favorite of Bruins fans.

Studnicka plays a hard-working two-way game with plenty of skill involved as well. He led the AHL in short-handed goals this season by nearly double the next-best mark, while contributing on the power play and of course at even strength as well. Studnicka finished in the top-four in goals, points, and per-game scoring among AHL rookies and that was even while missing some time to play in Boston.

With Bergeron and David Krejci getting up there in age and heading toward the ends of long-term contracts, a changing of the guard could be coming to the Bruins sooner rather than later. While Studnicka may not be considered an elite prospect at this point, neither was Bergeron when he debuted in the NHL and Studnicka could follow in his footseps while replacing him in the lineup down the road. Few players are set up as well to take over for a future Hall of Famer.

Gavin Lee:

You can already read my thoughts on Joe Veleno and the career I believe is waiting for him in the NHL in one of last week’s panels, so I’ll just name another Grand Rapids Griffins rookie instead (apparently I’m a Red Wings fan lately).

Mortiz Seider was a shocking selection by the Red Wings when they took him sixth overall last June, while other more familiar names like Dylan Cozens, Trevor Zegras and Spencer Knight were still on the board. What we all may have overlooked was the teenager’s performance in the World Championship, which showed just how ready Seider was to play against professionals much older than him.

In his first year in the AHL, a league that has a very short history of teenagers, let alone teenaged defensemen, the then-18-year-old Seider recorded 22 points in 49 games and never looked out of place. The 6’4″ 207-lbs, right-handed defenseman turned 19 just a few days ago and likely could have spent time on Detroit’s blue line this year had the team been any more competitive. There’s no doubt that’s where he’ll end up in short order, but it’s his limitless ceiling as a top two-way defenseman that makes him so interesting. Did Steve Yzerman find his next Victor Hedman? (probably not, but boy was that a fun debut)

PHR Panel: Prospect Pontificating

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on a prospect that hasn’t yet made his NHL debut.

Q: Which already-drafted prospect outside of the NHL excites you the most?

Brian La Rose:

The question of when Wild winger Kirill Kaprizov will sign with Minnesota has been ongoing for a while. The first season PHR covered was the 2016-17 campaign where his contract in the KHL was expiring and there were questions as to whether or not he’d come to North America. Fast forward to today. His contract in the KHL is expiring and there is hope that he’ll finally cross the pond. I’m excited to see if he lives up to the hype.

There is plenty of reason for optimism. In recent years, he has progressed from being a good KHL winger to a legitimate star and actually led the KHL in goals (33) and points per game (1.09) this season. A few years ago, the thought was that he could come in and play right away. Now, the hope is that he can come in and play on the Wild’s top line right away.

Over the last few years, Minnesota has been a decent team but is missing that key piece or two to prop them up from being a bubble team. Kaprizov has the ability to help them do just that. Assuming he plays next season (even this year is a possibility if regular season games resume), he could be the player to help spark their turnaround. It seems we’ll soon find out if he winds up being well worth the wait.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

I find myself quite intrigued by the prospects in this upcoming draft, but that doesn’t answer today’s question. Considering that I’m German, I’ve always been fascinated by German prospects and with the continuing improvement in German-born players that last few years (very interested to see how Tim Stuetzle develops), I’m always watching prospects ready to come to the U.S closely.

The guy I’ve been most interested in the last couple of years is Carolina Hurricanes prospect Dominik Bokk. He was originally drafted 25th overall in 2018 by the Blues and was a key part of the trade which brought Justin Faulk to St. Louis. Bokk is considered to be quite the talent, joining the SHL at age 18, but has struggled to play among men, scoring nine goals in two seasons with Vaxjo. He then went over to top-ranked Rogle where he struggled even more, but after a dominating performance for Germany at the World Juniors this last year took off, scoring 10 goals since returning, while only averaging 12-13 minutes per game.

He’s expected to arrive and spend a season in the AHL where the Hurricanes already moved out a bunch of prospects out of their AHL system, including Julien Gauthier, Janne Kuokkanen and Eetu Luostarinen to give some playing time for incoming players, including Bokk. I wouldn’t be surprised if he dominates in his first AHL year and we’ll see how he develops, but I just get excited about Bokk as a prospect.

Zach Leach:

There are a number of talented future stars among the selections from the past couple of years—and even more in the upcoming draft class—but in my opinion “excitement” for a prospect peaks the closer he is to making an NHL impact.

For that reason, to me Kaprizov has to be the most exciting prospect outside of the NHL. The 2015 Minnesota Wild pick has been teasing North American fans for years with stunning numbers in the KHL for such a young player. The 22-year-old could be the second coming of Artemi Panarin and I believe he finally makes the jump this summer and takes on a top-six role for the Wild right away next year. Kaprizov is simply a dynamic offensive talent and gifted scorer who I would be surprised to see struggle with translating his penchant for points to the NHL. He would be my 2020-21 Calder Trophy favorite the minute he signs in Minny.

As for more recent picks, I continue to be impressed by Buffalo Sabres prospect Dylan Cozens. A player that I was high on when he was drafted last year, I feel Cozens was an outstanding value at No. 7 overall. For the sake of development, he was better off back in the WHL this season, where he again proved to be one of the league’s best players, rather than with a struggling Sabres squad. However, I expect the well-rounded power forward to break camp in Buffalo next season and make an impact for a team desperate for more talent, compete, and IQ in their forward corps.

Gavin Lee:

There’s no doubt that Kaprizov will get the juices flowing again when he finally does come over, but the will-he-won’t-he of the last few years has me drained of any excitement.

A really good case could be made for Alex Newhook, who has just oozed top-line NHL potential while dominating his NCAA competition. The Colorado Avalanche draft pick—16th overall in 2019—scored 19 goals and 42 points in 34 games for Boston College and was just named the Tim Taylor Award winner as NCAA Rookie of the Year. Newhook was somehow left off the Canadian roster at the World Juniors this year (they won gold, so I guess it was the right choice?) but you can bet he’ll be at the next one, before making his mark at the NHL level down the road.

Still, as much as this may cause some chuckles in the back, the prospect that excites me the most is still Joe Veleno. The QMJHL star and Detroit Red Wings prospect jumped to the AHL last season and recorded just 23 points in 54 games, but that performance comes with a few caveats. First, and most importantly, Veleno played a good chunk of the season as a teenager—something that isn’t normally allowed for a player drafted out of the CHL. His case was different because of the exceptional status he was granted to enter the CHL a year early; five years of junior meant he was eligible to jump to professional hockey.

The other was the overall scoring ineptitude of the Grand Rapids Griffins. Amazingly, Veleno’s 11 goals actually tied him for third on the team, behind only AHL veterans Chris Terry and Matt Puempel. Five of those goals actually came in his final 16 games of the season, hopefully pointing to a higher level of production next year.

It’s hard to explain exactly why Veleno excites me when I watch him play, but he does. At the World Juniors I thought he was arguably the most well-rounded forward in the tournament, and perhaps that’s why I have such high hopes. I think he can be a star offensively in the NHL if he’s put in that role, but I also think he could be one of the league’s best shutdown forwards. What better organization to be in than one helmed by Steve Yzerman.

PHR Panel: Braden Holtby’s Future

at CDT | by 7 Comments

We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on Braden Holtby’s playing future.

Q: Where will Braden Holtby be playing in 2020-21?

Brian La Rose: 

It seems safe to rule out Washington at this point. With $71MM committed for next season, they don’t have a lot of wiggle room to add another high-priced player and Ilya Samsonov will need a new, potentially pricey deal in 2021. Holtby has been a big part of the Capitals for a long time but they’re close to parting ways.

It’s not a great year to be a starting goalie that’s hitting the open market. There aren’t many openings for clear cut number ones and with the year Sergei Bobrovsky had, teams will be hesitant to sign an expensive deal. Some teams that have a need probably don’t have the money (Chicago comes to mind) which limits things even further.

This has to be great news for Detroit. They have a glaring weakness between the pipes to try to fill and their prospect depth is limited. They’re in solid shape when it comes to the salary cap and with Steve Yzerman at the helm as GM, there is optimism that their days of being in the basement are quickly coming to an end.

That makes them a great fit for Holtby. Even though he’s had a down year by his standards, his track record is good enough that he’d still be the clear cut starter for the Red Wings and could still command a sizable contract. There may be another losing season in the short term but over the long haul, this may be the best situation for both sides.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

I’ve always been a fan of Washington goaltender Braden Holtby, but to be honest, I’ve not been crazy about his play the last couple of years. Yes, he bounced back in the 2017-18 playoffs after losing his job to Philipp Grubauer, but he hasn’t been the same since. He finished the 2018-19 season with a 2.82 GAA and a .911 save percentage and those numbers actually plummeted this year with a 3.11 GAA and .897 save percentage, which makes you wonder how many teams will be willing to pay up for Holtby’s services.

In reality, the Capitals might be really lucky that Ilya Samsonov had such an impressive rookie year. Had he struggled this year, they would be in a tough situation. Any team that is interested in Holtby has to be quite wary of how the 30-year old (31 at the start of next season) has played recently and I would not give him term of any significant length.

However, I could see several teams interested in signing him in hopes that he might bounce back and personally, I wouldn’t be shocked if a team like the Buffalo Sabres might opt to buy out Carter Hutton and bring in Holtby to share the net with Linus Ullmark over the next few years. The defense is getting stronger and they have some talent not far away from coming in to help both netminders. The key, once again, is not to offer too long of a deal, especially since the Sabres have been burned by free agents over the years.

Zach Leach: 

When it comes to Braden Holtby, the only thing that is certain is that he will be playing in a starter’s role to begin next season. Holtby was one of the best players in the NHL from 2014-17, so while his numbers have shown a marked drop-off in recent years, he still has the experience and brand power to land a major contract that guarantees him a top role in net. That’s not to say that the team investing in the Vezina Trophy winner is making a wise decision, but someone will do it.

Who exactly that will be is hard to tell. A Saskatchewan native who played junior for his hometown Saskatoon Blades, Holtby has no real ties to any other NHL market besides Washington. Beyond a possible reunion with first NHL coach Bruce Boudreau, should he land with a team who had needs in net, Holtby’s destination will likely not be based on any past relationships either, but rather simply the best offer.

While things are sure to change this off-season with the possibilities of a stagnant salary cap and compliance buyouts, right now there are few teams in need of a bona fide starter. Staying with the Caps or moving to the Blackhawks or Sharks would be an ideal fit, but would be very difficult in terms of cap construction. On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Wings, Senators, Sabres, and Devils could use help in net but are likely hesitant to make a major investment when they are not close to contending.

For my money, I would say that Chicago is most likely to figure out how to make Holtby fit. They are the only team in the league without an NHL option signed for next season and are desperate to solve that situation and get back to competing for Stanley Cups. A Brent Seabrook compliance buyout would go a long way to making this dream a reality. If San Jose can move Martin Jones or Buffalo decides to go all-in this summer, I would say that those two teams have the flexibility to be players for Holtby as well. I think the Capitals are prepared to move forward with Ilya Samsonov and a top veteran backup.

Gavin Lee:

When you think of signing big-name free agents, which is the very last team you consider? Maybe the Carolina Hurricanes, who haven’t been a big UFA player on July 1 since, well they’ve never really been one. Perhaps that all changes this year, when Holtby will be available for the highest bidder.

Yes, it would be quite a shock for Carolina to make a commitment of that level to a free agent. Yes, the Hurricanes do already have two goaltenders each making more than $3MM next season. And yes, even with the expiring Joel Edmundson and Trevor van Riemsdyk contracts the team still has an expensive defense corps.

But if there has been any theme to the team’s moves since Tom Dundon took over as owner, it’s that they’re willing to take a swing at that inside fastball and try to put it in the seats. That’s exactly what Holtby would be for a team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals just a year ago. The Hurricanes have shown they can be an elite possession team, own one of the finest defensive groups in the NHL, and after some shrewd trades the last few years now have a young top-nine that could rival almost any in the league.

There would need to be other moves that go along with it. Obviously James Reimer and Petr Mrazek couldn’t both be on the roster along with Holtby, but given that the team still has some time before Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas get really expensive, perhaps one of them could. A tandem of Holtby-Mrazek for instance still might not be that much more expensive than the ones in Florida and Montreal, where Sergei Bobrovsky and Carey Price already make at least $10MM per season. After his down year and with the squeezed salary cap Holtby won’t command that much, but he could still give the Hurricanes that kind of Vezina-caliber, championship-level goaltending they’ve lacked for so long.

What better motivation could there be than to stay in the Metropolitan Division?

PHR Panel: Expansion Draft Considerations

at CDT | by 4 Comments

We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the upcoming 2021 expansion draft.

Q: Which team should be most afraid of the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft?

Brian La Rose: 

This is a tough one to answer a year out as a lot will change between now and then. Who is added over the offseason in trades and free agency can certainly affect things. So too can teams deciding to sign players to early extensions or holding off in order to leave them exposed to protect someone else.

Personally, I’m of the opinion that teams with strong defensive depth are the ones that should be the most worried. With a 7-3-1 protection system, anyone with a fourth defender worthy of keeping either risk losing them or their fifth-best forward if they switch to the alternative eight skater protection list.

Using that mindset, Carolina comes up as a team that should be concerned about Seattle’s draft.

Their surefire protectees at this point on the back end are Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei. But does Haydn Fleury take another step forward next year and become tougher to leave exposed? Are they able to get Dougie Hamilton signed to an extension? If so, he’s another must-protect player. What about Jake Bean, a well-regarded prospect that will be eligible to be picked. It’s reasonable to think that they may want to protect four defensemen which means only four forwards could be protected. But with a strong and relatively forward corps as well, they’re setting up to lose either a strong defenseman or a top-six forward. Having depth is great but a year from now, they’re going to lose an impact player.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

When looking at the upcoming expansion draft, there are a number of teams that may have to give up some very good players to the incoming Seattle franchise. While I can easily point to teams like Toronto and Tampa Bay as franchises that have a lot of talent, the team that seems to currently have the most talent at risk is the St. Louis Blues. Granted, there are still quite a few questions that need to be asked, including what will the team do with Alex Pietrangelo? If they re-sign him, then the team is overloaded with defensemen and might have to consider the 8 players and a goalie scenario as opposed to 7-3-1.

However, I sense that even if the team does find a way to bring Pietrangelo back—which I think is likely—then the team will have to ship out a blueliner (maybe Justin Faulk) to give the team some salary cap relief and keep a 7-3-1 scenario, considering all the talent. The Blues have quite a bit of offensive firepower with a lot of young talent. The team will obviously keep Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz if he is extended, likely Brayden Schenn–maybe David Perron, maybe not. That’s the veterans. What about Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Sammy Blais? They are key young pieces with a ton of talent. That still leaves quite a few players exposed, including Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zach Sanford…

So, no matter what moves they make, the Blues should lose a quality player. Don’t forget in goal…before Jordan Binnington came along, Ville Husso was considered their goalie of the future. Could he be the goalie of the future in Seattle now?

Zach Leach:

The expansion draft format, which will be the same for Seattle as it was for Vegas, is designed to hurt every team. The protection schemes combined with the exposure requirements ensure that each club must expose at least one or two players of value. However, the rules are most unfavorable not to the teams with the most high-end talent, but to the teams with the most depth, specifically those with considerable youth and homegrown talent signed long-term.

While rosters are sure to change before the Expansion Draft occurs—meaning projections will become much more accurate following the upcoming off-season—there are several teams who already look like they could be in trouble protecting their top assets from exposure. In my opinion, the standouts are the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Washington Capitals. Each of these teams have strong depth in both forwards and defensemen, including valuable young players. The Flames, Hurricanes, and Predators will all have to make tough calls on the blue line between established veterans and budding young standouts, while the Islanders, Lightning, and Capitals won’t have much choice but to expose young defenders but will also face a crunch at forward that could cost veteran difference-makers.

However, at least each of these teams has a chance at postseason glory this year (hopefully) and next before their rosters take a hit. The Sabres should be the team most afraid of the expansion draft because they look primed to lose a key young player before they are even done putting together a contending squad. With many strong defensemen and a growing core of impressive forwards, Buffalo will have to expose notable names. On defense, only two of Rasmus Ristolainen, Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Montour, and Colin Miller can be protected alongside Rasmus Dahlin, while upfront the team must protect centerpieces Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, and Victor Olofsson, not to mention the presumed top-six forward they have long been rumored to be seeking this summer, leaving few spots for a large group of up-and-comers including Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Rasmus Asplund, and Dominik Kahun.

Gavin Lee:

When this year’s trade deadline was approaching and rumors started swirling around the Minnesota Wild, a few interesting names hit the news. The team was apparently considering a move of either Mathew Dumba or Jonas Brodin, two players who seemed to be core contributors that were still young enough to be part of a retooled competitive window.

The reason may well be the expansion draft, where new Wild GM Bill Guerin will still be in tough thanks to his predecessors.

Remember that players who have no-movement clauses require automatic protection from the draft, eating up precious spots. The Wild have four such players: Zach Parise, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Suter, and Jared Spurgeon. If the draft rolls around and all four players are still on the roster (and refuse to waive their clauses), it’s going to be hard for the Wild to protect all of their young talent. Remember, even Zuccarello will be turning 34 just a few months after the draft.

Brodin is an unrestricted free agent in 2021, meaning he may end up on the trade block no matter what, but if they had any inkling of extending the reliable defender it would only complicate things further.

No doubt this was also a consideration when Guerin almost traded Parise to the New York Islanders at the deadline. Moving the veteran forward would really be a blessing for the team, despite how difficult it would be to see a franchise (and Minnesota) legend leave town.

PHR Panel: Coaching Candidates

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on potential coaching candidates.

Q: Which current unemployed coach will generate the most interest in the offseason?

Brian La Rose:

Gerard Gallant’s firing in Florida back in 2016-17 was rather stunning.  So was his firing this season with Vegas holding down a playoff spot and the fact there were discussions on an extension not long before it happened. He’s known as a good communicator which is becoming more and more important now which certainly helps.

What will also help is that both of his recent teams had a first-place finish under his short tenure which will catch the eye of owners and general managers looking for a quick turnaround.  The fact that he has had success with teams in a (re)building stage will be of interest to those types of teams as well.  In other words, just about every club with a vacancy (current or future) should have Gallant at least on their shortlist.  The underlying numbers and analytics may give a couple of teams some pause but if Gallant wants to be a head coach next season, he’ll have multiple teams to choose from.

One other coach that will likely get some consideration is Bruce Boudreau.  While his playoff track record isn’t the best, he has shown an ability to get a lot out of his teams in the regular season.  At 65, he’s not going to be looking at a long-term situation but rather one where he can go for another quick fix.  There will be teams looking for a speedy turnaround which will have him on the radar.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

Due to several coaching changes during the course of the 2019-20 season, there are many high-quality coaches that are available, including Peter Laviolette, Boudreau, Randy Carlyle, but probably most importantly, Gallant.

All will likely draw plenty of interest for teams looking to make changes at the coaching position, but Gallant is the likely prize of the bunch. The head coach did everything imaginable to lead a group of misfits to the Stanley Cup in his first year as head coach of an expansion franchise and continued to show his success in year two. That year ended early due to a bad call by the officials, but the veteran coach proved that he is good enough to coach any team and will be hired quickly.

Gallant does have a few detractors, who point to things such as sticking with his favorite players too long and his unwillingness to play forwards who lack quality defensive play, but for most teams, that’s a positive. Not entirely sure what team might be interested in his services, but he has proven an ability to work with all types of teams and should be a big success wherever he ends up.

Zach Leach:

Even if you feel Mike Babcock and Jim Montgomery are still off-limits due to past behavior and even if you think that Boudreau is played out, Laviolette and Gallant alone make this an elite free agent class of head coaches.

Laviolette has proven to consistently be among the best coaches in the NHL, making the playoffs in 11 of his 15 complete seasons. He has also done so with four different teams, showing an ability to quickly adapt to new rosters and personnel. Laviolette won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and has made an appearance in the Cup Final two other times with two other teams, including 2017 with the Nashville Predators. For a 55-year-old, Laviolette is extraordinarily accomplished and still has plenty of gas in the tank.

Gallant, 56, also has far more to give and is likely raring to go after a surprise firing this season. This is the second time that Gallant has been dismissed seemingly out of nowhere, the other coming in 2016-17 after leading the Florida Panthers to a division title the year prior. The 2018 Jack Adams winner deserves another chance after leading the Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, an unheard of accomplishment in sports, and taking them to the playoffs again last season.

Both of these coaches are elite and there will draw plenty of interest, with a number of potential openings and a new expansion team lurking. However, if I had to give the nod to one, I would go with Laviolette based on greater experience and a longer history of winning. It’s also worth noting that his Cup title with Carolina is the closest thing in terms of shock and awe to Gallant’s run with Vegas in recent memory, while his most recent Final appearance came just one year prior to Gallant’s. In my opinion, Laviolette is still one of the game’s best.

Gavin Lee:

It’s hard to argue against coaches like Gallant and Laviolette, but I think it would be foolish to overlook the aura that has always surrounded Babcock just because of the stories that followed him out of Toronto. There is a reason why Babcock pushed against the ceiling for coaches in terms of salary when he signed with the Maple Leafs in 2015, earning a whopping eight-year deal worth $50MM. He has been extremely well-respected around the hockey world for a long time and even though things certainly went south extremely quickly in Toronto, there will be teams that want him to come in and establish a winning culture.

No, I’m not by any means saying that Babcock would be my choice if I was looking to hire a coach this offseason. Even looking beyond the questionable motivation tactics he used during his time in Toronto and the stories of player frustration that have followed him around for a long time, there is reason to doubt Babcock’s actual results over the last decade. Since his last Stanley Cup Final appearance with the Detroit Red Wings in 2009, teams under Babcock have gone just 32-46 in the playoffs. In Toronto he was never able to make it out of the first round, though he did usher them to the playoffs in three out of four full seasons.

Still, a Stanley Cup and two Olympic gold medals will keep your resume at the top of the pile for a long time and if he wants to, the 56-year old Babcock will certainly have a chance to coach again in the NHL—a league that has a long history of hiring “hated” coaches after a short time out of the spotlight. Darren Dreger was even on TSN radio recently discussing Babcock’s future, and counted himself in the camp that believes there will be another opportunity for the veteran coach in the future.

PHR Panel: Offer Sheet Candidates

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on potential offer sheet fireworks.

Q: Which players could be offer sheet candidates this offseason?

Brian La Rose: 

Islanders center Mathew Barzal would have been at or near the top of the list but GM Lou Lamoriello tried his best to put an end to that last month when he stated they would match any offer.

I’ve long thought that it’s the lower-priced players that make sense as offer sheet targets rather than the ones for top talent and perhaps this will be the year where that happens considering the potentially lower salary cap.

The Rangers are a team that could be hit hard by that which leaves someone like Anthony DeAngelo at risk.  He’s having a breakout year offensively but with Alexandar Georgiev and Ryan Strome needing new deals plus Kevin Shattenkirk’s buyout cost jumping, they may have a hard time keeping him which makes him a potential piece.  At the lower end, Brendan Lemieux could be an option as New York will want him to take a cheaper short-term deal which leaves them vulnerable to a longer-term offer.

Chicago could be vulnerable on the cap, especially if their currently injured veterans are cleared to come back.  In particular, they probably can’t afford to give Dylan Strome a long-term offer and can use his ineligibility for arbitration to try to force that direction.  But if he wants a long-term deal, he may have to take an offer sheet to get it.

There’s no guarantee that there will be one this offseason but the pending cap situation makes it more of a realistic option than it usually is.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

I feel like many people are talking about teams making big offers to the New York Islanders’ Mathew Barzal, but I can’t really see that as an option for teams. While there was one offer sheet last year that went to Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, I really can’t see teams allowing their franchise player to leave for any reason. Even if Montreal had made a bigger offer, it seems hard to believe that the Hurricanes would have let Aho go. The same would go for Barzal. After losing John Tavares to free agency, there is no way Lou Lamoriello would allow Barzal to leave.

The only way that a team would be able to pull off a successful offer sheet would be to attack a team right up against the cap with a mid-level player with a big offer. Teams need to focus on a team like the Boston Bruins and give an offer sheet to someone like Jake Debrusk, who with a solid offer, might outprice himself on a team full of expensive veterans. The question is whether a player like Debrusk is worthy of a solid offer that might overwhelm the cap of the Bruins as he isn’t necessarily looked upon as a franchise player. However there is a much better chance of success than going after a franchise face.

Zach Leach: 

I have always felt that an offer sheet is a tool of opportunity. It is not necessarily best-used to try to outbid a competitor for one of the best RFA’s on the market, but instead to take advantage of a team struggling against the cap or an internal budget. Should the 2020-21 salary cap come in below the estimation, a number of teams will be in that situation this year. For those lucky enough not to be left scrambling by an uncertain offseason, they could go hunting for valuable RFA’s on troubled teams.

No team is more at risk than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa is lacking space heading into the off-season with a trio of prize RFA’s in need of new deals. I feel one of these three – Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak – is the most likely to sign an offer sheet. Not only can the Bolts not afford to overpay for these players without dismantling their veteran core, but each player also knows that they stand a better chance at playing a bigger role almost anywhere other than with the uber-deep Lightning. It’s also hard to imagine any rival clubs feeling sorry about weakening Tampa, arguably the strongest lineup on paper in the NHL.

Two other situations that bear watching belong to the Chicago Blackhawks and Toronto Maple Leafs, who each have impressive, older rookies heading toward RFA status. 24-year-old Dominik Kubalik has been a revelation for the ’Hawks this season and is likely to be a Calder Trophy candidate. Now that he has proven himself, a competitor could feel comfortable extending a high-salary, long-term deal that Chicago cannot match. If the Blackhawks do match or are proactive with a substantial extension, it would require a shake-up in the roster or could potentially leave Dylan Strome susceptible to an offer sheet himself. Meanwhile, Ilya Mikheyev got off to a hot start in Toronto prior to a season-ending injury but showed in that short time that he is a legitimate NHL talent. The Leafs cannot stretch their young, but expensive roster any further and would have to choose between Mikheyev and another young star if pressed by a sizable offer sheet.

Gavin Lee:

If I’m looking for a target to sign to an offer sheet, I’d never be going after a team’s best player. Those deals will almost certainly be matched, if they even sign it in the first place. No, I’m looking for that underlying group of talented players that may have not yet broken out or received the right opportunity. Obviously if a team is in a cap crunch it can be even more effective, but remember that the player has to be the one to sign it—as in, it has to be worth their while and you’re likely going to have to overpay.

One name that comes immediately to mind in that situation is Kevin Labanc of the San Jose Sharks. After an impressive 17-goal, 56-point 2018-19, Labanc bet on his own talent and agreed to a shocking one-year, $1MM deal with the Sharks. He’s now arbitration-eligible and an RFA once again, perhaps looking to make back some of the money he left on the table.

Now Labanc isn’t a sure thing. His production dropped this season to just 33 points in 70 games, but if you believe he can be a difference-maker on your powerplay and strengthen your middle-six, perhaps he’s the right one to target. The Sharks aren’t in a perfect cap situation because of their expensive, aging core, and are even down several draft picks after going deadline shopping the last few years. Maybe they would have to let Labanc go if he signed a substantial long-term offer sheet.

PHR Panel: Franchise Building Blocks

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on who we would want to build a franchise around.

Q: If you had to build a team around one player drafted in the past three years, who would it be?

Brian La Rose:

It’s the age-old debate of what’s more valuable—the number one center or the number one defenseman.  Two players from the 2017 draft immediately jump to mind in Colorado’s Cale Makar and Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson.

In Makar, Colorado has a dynamic offensive threat from the back end and considering he has just one full season under his belt, it’s certainly reasonable to expect that he will improve considerably from where he is now.

Meanwhile, Pettersson has immediately stepped into a key role in Vancouver and this season, he proved that his rookie campaign was no fluke.  He has shown that he can handle the rigors of playing down the middle without too much difficulty.

Makar is going to be an elite offensive weapon in the NHL.  He basically already is.  But I’m not sure his defensive game gets quite to that level.  Meanwhile, Pettersson has made some strides defensively and has the potential to be that all situations type of player.

If I’m a GM building a team around one of the two, I’d take Pettersson as a result.  There are no limitations with him—he should soon be a point-per-game player or better and number one centers are extremely hard to acquire outside of the draft.  Makar is an electric player already with room to get even better but will his defensive play improve to where he can be that all situations player?  I’m not as certain about that so I’ll take the safer play with Pettersson.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

There are a number of impressive prospects who have made quite an impact early in their careers and while I could easily go with a defenseman like Makar or Quinn Hughes as the anchor to my team’s defense and quarterback of my power play, I am still of the belief that if possible, it’s always better to build around your centers, just like the New Jersey Devils have done over the past three years, picking up both Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes.

Looking at all the top centers drafted over the past three years, I’m inclined to pick the Canucks’ Pettersson as the player that I would build around. Pettersson spent his first season in the SHL where he broke numerous rookie records and was often compared to the great Sedin twins. He came to North America and had an impressive rookie season in 2018-19 in which he posted 28 goals and 66 points. He matched that production again this year with a 27-goal, 66-point campaign in 68 games, while avoiding a major injury.

The skilled forward has taken the Canucks to a whole new level of play this season and had them in the middle of a playoff race before the shutdown. Pettersson still has plenty of room to take his game up a level or two and in my opinion, makes the most sense to build a team around.

Zach Leach:

I am a firm believer in building a team around the literal centerpiece of your lineup: a top line center. Look back through the annals of NHL history and you will be hard-pressed to find a Stanley Cup winner that didn’t have an elite center on their first line and usually a top option on their second line as well. A top contender is built down the middle.

The problem with this premise and the past three draft classes is that too few centers have yet to establish themselves as “elite” in the NHL. The jury is still out on 2019 No. 1 pick Jack Hughes, who disappointed as a first-year pro, and New Jersey Devils teammate Nico Hischier is a solid two-way player, but to this point has shown limited star power. Carolina’s Martin Necas, Vegas’ Cody Glass, and Chicago’s Kirby Dach are among a large group who simply have too small of an NHL sample size as well.

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson is the only player who might fit the bill. The reigning Calder Trophy winner has posted 66+ points in back-to-back seasons to begin his NHL career and has shown strong offensive instincts and a sniper’s touch. However, it remains to be seen whether he will actually continue to line up at center for the Canucks, who have used him on the wing more often than not this season. The winger role would seem to align better with his style and tendencies, but does bring down his value somewhat. Petterson is a hard player to pass up, but I’m not entirely sold that he can be a team’s best player.

So if not Pettersson, then who? If not a center, then what position? A superstar defenseman is another highly valuable asset and there are at least four who fit the mold among the past three classes: Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin, Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, and Colorado’s Cale Makar. While all project to be elite, top-pair defensemen, only one to me is destined to be a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.

Makar is my choice as the best available player to build around. Between his collegiate career, taking UMass from an unknown to the National Championship game, to his NHL start, a strong playoff debut followed by what could very likely be a Calder-caliber rookie season, Makar has left few questions unanswered. A generational puck-mover who already skates and sees the ice as well as anyone, Makar is also not afraid to throw his weight around and shows good defensive awareness and the speed to make up for any mistakes. Perhaps most importantly, Makar has already shown some prize intangibles in college and the pros, including leadership ability and the ability to excel under pressure. Even on a loaded Avalanche roster, it is not hard to see a day when Makar could be the team’s very best player, as he could for most NHL clubs.

Gavin Lee:

In a year’s time you may be talking about Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko or Kirby Dach as potential options here, but there just hasn’t been enough time for any of them to prove they can be franchise-altering talents. That’s the kind of thing they’re going up against when you look back at the 2017 and 2018 drafts, which provided a huge number of potential league superstars.

It’s hard to argue with the selection of Pettersson, who looks like he’ll be a first-line center for years to come in Vancouver. Hughes, his teammate, would also be an outstanding pick and gives the Canucks a dynamic duo that will make opponents regret taking any penalties over the next decade. Either one would be a great building block for your franchise, just as players like Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Miro Heiskanen or even Hischier—who is routinely overlooked when discussing up-and-coming talents—would be.

But my choice lies in Colorado, where Makar has quickly taken over as the second-best player on a team already loaded with other top talents. It’s easy to forget that just three years ago the toughest competition Makar had faced was in the AJHL, and now he’s making NHL opponents look silly on a regular basis. The 21-year old simply doesn’t have an offensive ceiling and could well be competing for the Norris Trophy instead of the Calder in a year’s time.

PHR Panel: Draft Prospect Impact

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We’re now two weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Earlier this week we gave our thoughts on potential playoff formats the league could use coming out of the pause. Today, we’ll talk about how draft prospects are impacted by the sudden conclusion of their junior and college seasons.

Q: Which kind of draft prospect is impacted the most by the shortened scouting season—high-, mid- or late-round?

Brian La Rose:

By now, teams have a pretty good idea of the players that are going to be at or near the top of their draft lists.  There could be some movement up or down but most players ranked in the first round on a list at this point are still probably going to be ranked in the first round when final lists are set.

The stretch run and playoffs can certainly help a mid-ranked player move up (or down) but it shouldn’t affect their stock in terms of being drafted.  It would take a significant injury or a dreadful late performance to knock a player from being ranked mid-round midseason to the do not draft list.

That can’t be said for the late-round prospects.  Oftentimes, a big showing in the playoffs or the Under-18’s can make that lasting impression that gets them onto the late flier list.  Conversely, the lower-ranked player that played well at the start of the season but struggles in such an event can fall off the list entirely.  The movement in the rankings is much more drastic.

There is a considerable gap between first-rounders and those taken after.  There is a small difference between second and third-rounders relative to those who go later.  But once you hit the back end of the draft, the gap is minimal and it doesn’t take much to rise or fall in those rankings.  That’s why they’re the most impacted by the early ends to their respective seasons.

Holger Stolzenberg:

For the most part, high-round picks have already been established. Teams and scouts are already well aware of the top-caliber players and where they will go in the first couple of rounds. While there is always some shuffling up and down those first few rounds, most of those players have been scouted quite a bit (perhaps minus a handful of Russian prospects, but isn’t that always the case?)

It’s the later picks that are likely to be affected the most. With no playoffs coming at the junior and collegiate levels as well as overseas, many of those often-missed prospects won’t get a chance to shine at the final level and show that they should be taken earlier. Plenty of prospects establish themselves near the end of the season as they develop in their own team’s systems or get to step up and prove themselves when injuries creep up. These late-season tournaments as well as the IIHF canceling the IIHF U18 World Championships will eliminate key scouting opportunities that will have a major effect on the mid to late rounds.

Zach Leach:

Unlike the other top pro sports leagues, the NHL is unique in that all rookie contracts are more or less created equal. The entry-level system creates a narrow salary window in which each draft pick is able to negotiate his contract, while also allowing time before signing to create leverage for a greater base salary or performance bonuses within that range, as opposed to negotiating based solely on draft position.

This is all to say that the most important thing for an NHL prospect is just getting drafted, not where you are drafted. For this reason, the “late-round” prospects are absolutely the group most impacted by the Coronavirus-shortened season, as they are not locked in to be selected at all. Top prospects who can safely assume that they will be picked in the first four or five rounds have that security because there is a consensus that they are a strong NHL prospect. That consensus can only be built by multiple viewings by multiple scouts over the course of the season. A shortened season still leaves most teams with more than enough information to make a decision on those top- and middle-tier prospects. Those late-round prospects often do not have the luxury of multiple viewings by scouts. High school, prep school, Junior-A and European junior league games do not offer the same value to scouts as attending CHL, USHL, or European pro games, where there are multiple draft prospects to watch. As such, postseason play and other spring tournaments offer the best opportunities for scouts and the best chance for a late-round prospect to be seen and make an impact on a team, improving his draft odds. Many of those players will not get that opportunity this year and some lower-caliber players from bigger leagues may get the nod based on teams’ number of viewings alone.

Once a player is passed over in their first year of eligibility, earning a selection only gets tougher. So it is those fringe, late-round prospects who may have lost their chance to impress the maximum number of teams possible who will be most affected by the shortened recruiting season.

Gavin Lee:

There’s no doubt that the players at the fringe of any ranking may end up missing a chance to impress an NHL team enough to earn a selection, but I would argue that it doesn’t really change their situation all that much by going undrafted. Every year teams decide not to hand out NHL contracts to their sixth- and seventh-round picks from prior drafts, letting them become free agents or bringing them in on minor league deals instead. The situation for a seventh-round pick isn’t all that fundamentally different from one that slips by—they’re still going to have to put in a lot of hard work to prove they are worthy of an NHL contract slot.

No, I believe it is actually those first-round talents that could be affected the most, in both positive and negative manners.

Last year, just a few weeks before the draft, Peyton Krebs suffered a torn Achilles in an offseason workout. Krebs had been in line for a potential top-10 selection, ranked that high by several outlets including by TSN’s Bob McKenzie, who polls NHL scouts from around the league. Instead, after his injury, Krebs dropped to the Vegas Golden Knights at 17th. If you compare his entry-level deal to that of, say, Victor Soderstrom, who went 11th, you’ll notice that Krebs has a substantially lower number of available performance bonuses—some $750K over the three years.

For an example the other way, one can point at Mortiz Seider’s performance for Germany at the IIHF World Championship in May of 2019 as a potential reason why he ended up being the sixth player off the board in June. NHL.com correspondent Aaron Vickers wrote exactly that last year when he spoke to players like Leon Draisaitl who was so impressed with the 18-year old’s play. Seider landed more than $2.5MM in potential performance bonuses for going so high, twice as much as Krebs and certainly more than he would have at his #16 ranking in the same TSN scouting poll.

PHR Panel: Optimal Playoff Format

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We’re now two weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Today, we’re tackling the thing most people want to know about–the playoffs.

Q: What is the optimal playoff format for when (if) play resumes?

Brian La Rose:

I know there is some growing optimism to expand the format to as many as 24 teams in an effort to try to artificially improve revenues by getting some larger market teams in. Sure, it’d create some extra short-term interest and create the opportunity for even more upsets than last year. But let’s face it, Chicago and Montreal have no business being in the playoff discussion and there are no guarantees fans will be allowed to attend anyway so the potential revenue boost may not wind up being as high as they’d like.

I’d rather see a 16-team format and an effort made to try to play out the balance of the regular season or as much of it as possible and have the bubble teams battle it out that way. Gary Bettman has talked about the importance of protecting the integrity of the Stanley Cup and the season as part of any discussion about what to do moving forward. That is achieved by doing this over opening the field up to as many as eight more teams and playing best-of-three series. It may not be the most optimal from a salary cap perspective for next year but that number can be negotiated over solely being fixed by HRR anyway.

Now, if they feel the need to change something, they can scrap the divisional format and go back to the older way where the top team played eighth place, second played seventh, and so on.

Holger Stolzenberg:

Generally, I often hear people complaining about the current playoff system as many wish it to return to the 1-16 format. However, I’m a big fan of the current seeding structure and would never want to change it.

However, this is a year in which we might want to make some changes to the playoffs, depending on whether the regular season is canceled or not. Obviously, if the league has time to finish out the regular season, then my vote would be to keep the playoffs the same. If the regular season is canceled, I would like to see the playoffs expanded as a one-time event. With some teams having played more games than other teams, it just doesn’t seem very fair to just take the top 16 (even if they base it on points percentage). A team like Columbus might slip out of the playoffs since they were already at 70 games. While they had won just three of their previous 10, I feel like with Seth Jones likely back on the ice for them the team could surprise someone again in the playoffs.

I would like to see some more teams get in, but the suggested 24-team playoff seems like way too many. In my estimation, 21 teams were close to challenging for a playoff spot (maybe 22 if you want to include Arizona). So, I think whether they are play-in games or something minimal, I would like to see all those teams get a chance to earn their way into the playoffs.

Zach Leach:

One format that could a) stress the importance of regular season success, especially maintaining the league’s emphasis on division battles, b) fairly include an expanded field if the regular season cannot be completed, and c) take place in a more limited amount of time would be to reward the top two teams in each division with first-round byes while implementing shorter series in the first round.

If the playoffs were to start with standings unchanged and seeding was to be based on points percentage, the first round would feature byes for Boston, Tampa Bay, Washington, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, Vegas and Edmonton. Eight “wild card” teams in each conference would battle in three-game series. In the East, it would be Pittsburgh vs. Montreal, Carolina vs. the New York Rangers, the New York Islanders vs. Florida, and Columbus vs. Toronto. In the West, it would be Dallas vs. Chicago, Nashville vs. Arizona, Vancouver vs. Minnesota, and Calgary vs. Winnipeg.

The winners of each wild card, three-game match-up would be re-seeded for the second round, which would essentially mirror the traditional first round and set up the standard playoff structure. The conference semifinals, finals, and Stanley Cup Final would proceed as they normally do. In total, a field of 24 teams would be able to take part in the postseason with no more than three extra games compared to the usual course and no chance of a top-four team in either conference being knocked off due to time-constrained, shortened series.

Gavin Lee:

Quite frankly, I’m not sure there is an optimal setup at this point. The idea that any more regular season games will actually be played this season seems more and more unlikely each passing day and without those, it is hard to maintain the integrity of the Stanley Cup playoffs, what has become known as one of the longest and most difficult grinds in all of professional sports.

Sure, including teams like Montreal and Chicago would be beneficial to hockey related revenues, but it would taint the whole process in my opinion. How would you draw the line? Do the Sabres and Devils both also make it, given they’re only three points behind Montreal with two games in hand?

If it were possible, I would actually be shrinking the field to try and maintain some integrity, instead of expanding it. Eliminating all four wild card teams and giving byes to each division leader would allow you to keep the tradition of seven-game series and reward the teams that were really the best performers of the first part of the regular season.

Now, of course, the NHL would never do something like that. Having teams sit idle is only letting money fly out the window, and they’ll want as much as possible if they want to keep next year’s projections anywhere near accurate (which they already won’t be). I imagine we’ll see some sort of a play-in tournament, but they won’t risk losing a division leader in a short series against a team that wasn’t even in the wild card spot when the season hit pause.

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