PHR Panel

PHR Panel: Trade Market Memories (Part 2)

December 24, 2022 at 6:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

The year is almost up and NHL teams are taking breaks to spend time with their families before the second-half grind begins in earnest. Once the calendar turns to 2023, trade chatter will start again, and the push to the playoffs will begin. A break is time for reflection, and over this weekend we will be looking back with one of our favorite features: the PHR Panel.

In the spirit of the holidays, we have a special treat for the PHR community. Three of our former writers have joined in to give us their thoughts on what has been an incredible year of hockey. Welcome back Zach Leach, Holger Stolzenberg, and Nate Brown! Because we have the whole family back together, we’ll split each panel into two parts.

Now on to the meat of the thing. Our question today is simple:

What is the most memorable trade of 2022?

Holger Stolzenberg

Carolina Hurricanes Acquire Max Pacioretty

While the Jack Eichel trade stands out, the return wasn’t much of a surprise. What stood out in my mind, however, was the consequences of the trade for Vegas, who suddenly was way over the cap with no end in sight to be able to fix it. That led to the Max Pacioretty trade in the offseason in which Vegas sent the veteran forward and his $7MM contract to Carolina along with defenseman Dylan Coughlan for future considerations.

What I remember most of that is the beating that Vegas took in the press for the transaction, being forced to move a top forward for nothing. And while I agree that the Golden Knights should never have put themselves into that position, I think moving Pacioretty, who almost immediately suffered a significant injury, made plenty of sense.

Pacioretty, while productive, could never stay healthy and was costing the team a fortune. While he could help Carolina in their playoff run later this year, it really doesn’t look like the Golden Knights miss him that much. Meanwhile, Eichel has become the franchise player that they envisioned before they traded for him. As for Coughlan, it seems like a wash as the team does have a lot of minor league depth on defense, so no loss there.

I think the move worked out quite well for Vegas.

Ethan Hetu

Ottawa Senators Acquire Alex DeBrincat

For me, the Blackhawks’ deal to send Alex DeBrincat to the Ottawa Senators was not, on its own, the most memorable transaction of 2022. Instead, it’s what the Alex DeBrincat trade meant for one of the league’s marquee franchises that makes it such a defining moment of this year in hockey.

For most NHL franchises, making a trade as the Blackhawks’ first-year GM Kyle Davidson did would be unthinkable. Although the reality of DeBrincat’s restricted free agency and rapidly approaching eligibility for unrestricted free agency complicated matters, the fact of the matter is that DeBrincat was a 24-year-old player who had just scored 41 goals and 78 points. It was the second time in his young career that he crossed the 40-goal threshold, and he had firmly established himself as one of the league’s premier snipers.

In other words, this is not the sort of player a team should be trading. DeBrincat, a young elite scoring winger, is the textbook player a rebuilding franchise should build around, not cash in for draft picks like an aging veteran who won’t be around the next time his team is able to contend. And yet despite this conventional wisdom, Davidson chose to send his potential franchise pillar to Ottawa in exchange for a collection of draft picks.

Typically, when a team entertains the idea of trading a player like DeBrincat, they will hope to receive young, NHL-ready, or close to NHL-ready prospects. These are both “high upside” assets while also theoretically being safer investments than draft picks, as they are further along their development cycle. The Blackhawks chose not to acquire a player of that sort from the Senators, such as center Shane Pinto to give an example, preferring a package of draft picks that became Seattle Thunderbirds defenseman Kevin Korchinski, Kingston Frontenacs forward Paul Ludwinski, and a future mid-round pick.

Bold is definitely the word to use to characterize the choice, but what made the decision to convert a star forward into draft capital the most memorable transaction of 2022 is what it signified for the Blackhawks franchise. It was their warning shot, telling the rest of the NHL that their franchise’s primary objective would be stockpiling draft picks and prospects.

The 2019 third-overall pick Kirby Dach, just 21 years old and with much left to still be determined about his NHL future, was sent away in order to acquire another first-round pick. Valuable salary cap space was sacrificed (via the acquisition of Petr Mrazek) in order to move up the draft order to nab USHL defenseman Sam Rinzel.

While the Brandon Hagel trade may have been the first real move of the Blackhawks’ rebuild, the DeBrincat trade was their statement move, telling the rest of the league that they were and are firmly open for business. With a potential Patrick Kane trade having the potential to alter the balance of power among contenders in the NHL, the profound ripple effect of this summer’s DeBrincat trade makes it unquestionably the most memorable transaction of 2022.

Gavin Lee

Carolina Hurricanes Acquire Brent Burns

The Tkachuk trade stands out for me just because of the sheer amount of talent that was involved, but there’s another one that I still can’t seem to get out of my mind. I know that a lot happened on July 13 this year but it really seemed like most people glossed over Brent Burns heading to Carolina, and I’m not exactly sure why. I get the feeling that a lot of people may have forgotten just how good he is, or at least has been.

Let’s take a look at a few names, and without looking it up, guess if they have more career points than Burns.

How many did you get right? Only Stevens (908) and Gonchar (811) have outscored Burns’ 800 points. He sits 18th on the all-time list of defensemen, ahead of a whole bunch of Hall of Fame players. But he played forward! Yep, he sure did. Had he stayed a defenseman his whole career, Burns would likely actually have more points than he currently does.

When the Sharks got him and played him upfront for a couple of seasons, his production actually went down because he was only on the ice for around 16 minutes a night. In 2012-13 and 2013-14, he had just 68 points in 99 games. He had at least 60 in each of the following five seasons as a full-time defenseman, not to mention finishing as a Norris finalist three times during that span (and winning once).

He’s now playing nearly 24 minutes a night in Carolina, who have come roaring back from a mediocre start to take the lead in the Metropolitan Division. As I write this, the team is winning their eighth in a row, and will be 22-6-6 going into the holiday break. A potential HOF defenseman switched teams after a decade, and nearly 600 points with one team – and it seemed like no one was really paying attention.

Sure, Burns has flaws. He isn’t a great defender, he isn’t as physical as he once was, and he takes a lot of risks. But remember that the Hurricanes are only paying him $5.28MM of his $8MM cap hit after the Sharks retained salary. That’s less than guys like Esa Lindell, Nate Schmidt, Tyler Myers, and Erik Johnson – a group that has combined for 28 points on the season.

For whatever reason, that trade still sticks out in my mind as one that I didn’t see coming.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Panel: Trade Market Memories (Part 1)

December 24, 2022 at 1:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

Now on to the meat of the thing. Our question today is simple:

What is the most memorable transaction of 2022?

Brian La Rose

Tampa Bay Lightning Acquire Brandon Hagel

It certainly wasn’t the biggest move nor the splashiest, but Tampa Bay’s acquisition of Brandon Hagel is one that stunned me at the time. Not that the Lightning going and getting help wasn’t expected but the price tag (two first-round picks plus two young, cost-controllable roster players) seemed almost unthinkable for someone with Hagel’s somewhat limited track record.

Consider that Hagel was drafted by Buffalo and wasn’t offered a contract. Montreal brought him in as a camp invite and didn’t see fit to sign him either. Chicago did but he only played in 108 games before the trade, scoring 30 goals. Decent, sure, but worth two first-round picks plus Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk? No, I certainly didn’t see that coming.

What really made this trade memorable for me is how much it hammered home the value of team-friendly contracts. Trades are supposed to be about adding talent and key pieces but this move really emphasized that in this marketplace, math is what deals are all about. The top players don’t necessarily have the best trade value. Now, it’s the cost-effective players that do, especially ones with multiple years on a team-friendly contract. That’s how a forward with 30 career goals fetches two first-rounders.

Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t intended to be negative toward Tampa Bay. I fully get the logic and it’s absolutely defensible within the context of their cap situation. And Hagel is doing a nice job for them. But if someone would have suggested to me a month before the deadline that Brandon Hagel was going to be the player that brought back the most first-rounders, I’d have thought that person was joking. This move was an eye-opener for me in that sense, so it’s one that is definitely memorable.

Zach Leach

Boston Bruins Acquire Pavel Zacha

While blockbuster trades, lopsided swaps, or other headline-grabbing transactions are often the most memorable – and 2022 had its fair share – the deals that usually stick with me are the thinkers. There are always some trades that seem to heavily favor one side and beg the question “What was the GM thinking?” In 2022, the biggest head-scratcher in that regard was the Pavel Zacha–Erik Haula swap.

The New Jersey Devils are an up-and-coming young team that has nearly $25MM in salary coming off the books after the 2022-23 season. In Zacha, they had a 25-year-old restricted free agent forward coming off of a career-high in points and a defensive renaissance. The Devils could have found a way to manage the cap in order to sign Zacha to a multi-year deal and allow him to keep growing with their young core. The counter to this, of course, is that perhaps GM Tom Fitzgerald and company didn’t see the upside in paying to keep Zacha and wanted to trade him instead, which would be perfectly valid even if incorrect.

However, the player they chose to swap him for (straight up) was 31-year-old journeyman Haula, who was entering the final season of his contract and will be an unrestricted free agent at year’s end. He enjoyed a solid season in Boston in 2021-22, recording 44 points in 78 games, and is certainly the more experienced scorer and defensive player compared to Zacha. But his per-game production last year was not all that different than Zacha’s 36 points in 70 games and Haula was skating with the Bruins’ elite top-six for most of the campaign.

In fact, Zacha had the superior career points-per-game mark, the higher career average time on ice, better checking numbers, better possession numbers, and more. Considering again that Zacha was six years younger and under team control, while Haula is a stopgap depth piece for (at the time of the trade) a team that was not expected to contend for a postseason spot, the deal didn’t make much sense.

Since the trade was made, the status quo has changed somewhat. The Bruins signed Zacha to a one-year deal, making him an impending unrestricted free agent as well. This was yet another odd wrinkle to the trade, but understandable given Boston’s difficult short-term and long-term cap squeeze and primary focus on competing for a Stanley Cup right now. Even as a fellow UFA, Zacha still is the better player in the deal and has proven it this season.

Prior to their ongoing slide, the Devils were the biggest surprise of the early 2022-23 season as one of the top teams in the NHL and Haula has been contributing with 14 points in 33 games. And yet, the Bruins are undoubtedly the league’s top team and Zacha is playing a key role, recording 19 points in 31 games. Given the question marks in Boston’s aging core, Zacha looks like a potential long-term fit with the Bruins if the two sides can strike a deal before free agency.

Haula, though admittedly now a valued veteran piece of a team with playoff ambitions, is still likely to be one-and-done with the Devils. Even in the midst of a strong start to the season and a bright future, New Jersey fans should still be wondering why they moved on from Zacha, why they targeted an impending UFA in exchange for an RFA with no certainty of contending this season, and why they couldn’t get more than Haula (from Boston or elsewhere) in exchange? It’s a strange deal that I still find myself thinking about.

John Gilroy

Florida Panthers Acquire, Extend Matthew Tkachuk

It’s not very often that a pair of Hart candidates and a Norris candidate are all traded for each other. In fact, the last and only time two players coming off of 100-point seasons were dealt for each other, it was the trade that sent Wayne Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings, with Jimmy Carson going the other way.

There are two key elements of this trade that make it the most memorable to me. The first is that Weegar, frequently listed among the favorites to compete for the Norris, was likely the third-best player involved in this trade. Adding to that, remember Florida also sent a first-round pick to Calgary with Weegar and Huberdeau.

The other part of this that makes it memorable is the timing: late at night on a Friday more than a week after free agency had opened. Personally, I recall checking my phone one last time before putting it down to go to bed, not expecting to see much, but instead getting one of the biggest blockbusters in league history.

Nobody would bet on this type of deal going down, but if it was going to, it’s hard to imagine it would happen anywhere other than the floor of the NHL Draft.

Nate Brown

Ottawa Senators Acquire Alex DeBrincat – Montreal Canadiens Acquire Kirby Dach – Chicago Blackhawks Acquire Petr Mrazek

I’m going to bundle the triumvirate of trades that the Chicago Blackhawks made during the 2022 NHL Draft. The Blackhawks had peddled their 2022 first-round pick to Columbus, which wouldn’t you know it, ended up being a top-ten pick. New general manager Kyle Davidson went to work, dealing Alex DeBrincat for Ottawa for its seventh overall pick, a 2022 second-round pick, and a 2024 third-round pick.

As the hockey world was digesting the deal, Davidson shipped 2019 third-overall pick Kirby Dach to Montreal for the Canadiens’ 13th-overall pick and a third-round pick. Finally, Davidson sent the Hawks’ 2022 second-round pick to Toronto for its 25th overall pick and goalie Petr Mrazek.

This signaled two things to the league.

Chicago was all-in on a rebuild. It immediately led to speculation about Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews’ future in the Windy City, but as of this panel, they’re still in the fold.
Davidson was not gun-shy and would make deals that could accelerate the Blackhawks’ rebuild.

Chicago has obviously gone hard into the Connor Bedard tank-a-thon and Davidson got a jump start on it by acquiring three picks to potentially bring along should Chicago win the Lottery in 2023.

Check back for part 2 later today!

PHR Panel: 2022 Trade Deadline Predictions

March 19, 2022 at 2:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 5 Comments

With just 48 hours remaining before the 2022 NHL trade deadline, things are heating up around the league. Several big moves have already been made, with Josh Manson, Brandon Hagel, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ben Chiarot all traded to contenders. There’s more coming before Monday’s deadline, with Claude Giroux and others still yet to be moved.

As we get closer, it’s time to unearth one of our old features: The PHR Panel. This time it’ll come with a bit of a twist as instead of answering questions, we’re going to have a bit of fun. Each of us will give one prediction for a deadline move, and we encouraged each other to go a bit outside the box if necessary. These deals are completely speculative and just done for fun–but make sure you tell us why we’re out of our minds in the comments!

Q: Suggest one trade that makes sense at this year’s deadline.

Brian La Rose: Pittsburgh trades Kasperi Kapanen, Marcus Pettersson to Vancouver for Conor Garland, Travis Hamonic

With all of the smoke surrounding Vancouver, it sure feels like the Canucks are going to do something. We all know team president Jim Rutherford is a big fan of Kapanen and he’s the one who gave Pettersson a five-year, $20.125MM contract that hasn’t aged very well. Clearly, he’s also a believer in him. On the other hand, he’s not the one that brought Garland in from Arizona and if they want to shake up their core, he could be the one to go instead of the likes of J.T. Miller or Brock Boeser. GM Patrik Allvin is also quite familiar with both players from his days in Pittsburgh and knows what he’d be getting with those two.

For the Canucks, they add two players that Rutherford is quite comfortable with and their hope is that Kapanen will be a better long-term fit than Garland who has quieted off after a hot start to the season. Pettersson fits as a potential partner for Tucker Poolman when he’s healthy on Vancouver’s third pairing.

As for the Penguins, Garland on the wing for one of Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin (likely the latter) would be an opportunity for him to step into the scoring role that Kapanen was supposed to provide while Hamonic would help to shore up their third pairing. His shorter-term contract than Pettersson (he’s only signed through next season) would be easier to move this summer than Pettersson’s if Pittsburgh needs to free up money to try to re-sign Malkin, Kris Letang, or Bryan Rust. Team president Brian Burke helped bring Hamonic to Calgary from the Islanders back in 2017 and that familiarity could help here as well.

From a cap perspective, it’s pretty close to neutral this season. Pittsburgh adds $725K to their books, an amount that can be offset by simply sending Radim Zohorna to the minors for the time being. Garland has one extra year left than Kapanen but is at a price tag that’s somewhat similar to what a long-term contract for Kapanen will cost. That will make the cost for Vancouver a little higher beyond this season but nothing overly drastic. In the end, it’s an old-fashioned ‘hockey trade’, one we could see a few of before Monday with so many teams right against the cap where player for player swaps will be their only realistic option.

Zach Leach: Los Angeles Kings acquire Mark Giordano

It has been very quiet out of Los Angeles with the trade deadline looming. Though they have been linked to available names here and there, they have not been painted as an active buyer. Is the young team merely content with their current squad? Or are they simply lurking in the background and waiting for the right time to strike? I believe that it’s the latter. The Kings have every reason to fight for a playoff spot this season. They have aging core players eager to make another run, promising young players who could desperately use some postseason experience, and find themselves in the weakest division in the NHL with a real chance to make a run to the Western Conference Final (and perhaps beyond). GM Rob Blake has shown a willingness to spend on prime talent of late with the Phillip Danault signing and Viktor Arvidsson trade and I would expect him to do so again with his team in a great spot in the Pacific.

Perhaps the hesitancy from the media to project major moves from the Kings comes from a lack of believability–which is somewhat well-founded. L.A. has been willing themselves to victory this season despite some concerning numbers. The team ranks second-worst among current playoff-seeded clubs in goal differential at +2, just a few unlucky bounces away from a net negative mark. Special teams have also been a nightmare; the Kings are ranked in the bottom five in both power play and penalty kill efficiency. L.A. is also below average (or worse) in scoring, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways. Pretty bleak, huh? Yet, they play a smothering defensive system and possession game that allows the fewest shots against the in the NHL and as a result, are one of the goals against leaders in the West.

So why add a defenseman? First of all, in the case of a team with numerous holes, there’s something to be said for identifying a strength and leaning into it. Plus, the injury-plagued Kings are currently out four starting defensemen, including Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Mikey Anderson, with Sean Walker done for the year and Alex Edler only just returning. The defense may be a strength in L.A., but they need some immediate help to keep it going.

More importantly, Mark Giordano is no ordinary defenseman. The Seattle Kraken captain is the most experienced top-four defender on the trade market with over 1,000 games played and continues to perform like a player in his prime. Even for a struggling expansion team, the 38-year-old has managed to record 23 points in 55 games and has improved his possession numbers from the past two years in Calgary. Giordano does everything that the Kings need more of; he leads the Kraken in Corsi and powerplay time on ice, is among the top three skaters in time on ice, powerplay points, shots, and blocked shots, and is among the top five skaters in assists and short-handed time on ice. On a more talented team with a strong defensive system, Giordano will only improve. Given the Kings’ poor blue line depth, it also helps that Giordano is used to eating minutes (23:35 average time on ice over the past 13 years) and has largely stayed healthy in his career. He would be well-equipped to take over a top pair spot in L.A. and eventually join with Doughty to create a formidable pairing of past Norris Trophy winners. The Kings thought that they were creating a dynamic veteran duo when signing Edler this off-season but it hasn’t worked out. They now have a second chance.

We know that the Kraken are going to deal their captain. Even though Giordano is the locker room leader for the league’s newest team, his expiring contract and high trade value will force GM Ron Francis’s hand. Giordano is currently sitting out in anticipation of a trade, protecting a prized asset–especially after the Josh Manson and Ben Chiarot trades set a high bar for top-four rentals. The Kings can offer Seattle return options that most other contenders cannot. First, they do not need to ask Seattle to retain much, if any, of Giordano’s $6.75MM price tag as their numerous injuries allow them to create additional LTIR space while eventually they will still have room for all of their currently sidelined players on the active roster outside of Walker. Additionally, while most contenders are trying to push draft picks and long-term project prospects on Seattle, the Kings are littered with elite, NHL-ready prospects. So much so in fact that the team could send one or two to Seattle for Giordano and still have plenty to send to Arizona for Jakob Chychrun in the off-season (another player that they have been linked to but whose injury status could delay a trade). The Kraken should want to improve next season rather than enter a rebuild already. Opting to send Giordano to L.A. in exchange for a player like Gabriel Vilardi, Rasmus Kupari, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Alex Turcotte, Samuel Fagemo, Akil Thomas, or others (see what I mean by prospect depth?) is a long-term benefit but more helpful in the short-term than acquiring picks or prospects that are years away from contributing. Giordano’s familiarity with the Pacific Division, namely the division-leading Flames, is just the cherry on top of a deal that seems to be a great fit.

Josh Erickson: New York Rangers acquire Mark Giordano

It’s no secret that MVP-caliber goalie Igor Shesterkin has been the largest impetus of the Rangers’ success this season, catapulting them into a sure-fire top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division come season’s end. But the team has started to slip in recent weeks and their five-on-five play, particularly defensively, is now starting to expose cracks that have been forming all year. While no single acquisition will likely fix a team-wide issue like this, the need for a veteran left defenseman at this point is just too glaring to ignore.

As Zach details above, Giordano can be a difference-maker even at this point in his career. The Rangers can comfortably deal either their 2022 or 2023 first-round selection to Seattle, and the team also has a large number of prospects that the Kraken would be interested in taking on as well (is this a chance for Vitali Kravtsov to get a new start?).

They’ve gotten solid performances out of their top four defensemen all season, but the bottom pairing has become an issue. Patrik Nemeth has created more problems than he’s solved with his play this season, and while Giordano’s offensive game has dipped with age this year, he’s still been solid defensively. He’s a logical fit either next to Adam Fox, allowing Ryan Lindgren to draw more favorable matchups, or he can slot in on the third pairing and help mentor the young Braden Schneider as the Rangers go down the stretch run.

John Gilroy: Minnesota Wild acquire Andrew Copp

Still holding onto a playoff position in the Central Division but vulnerable, the Minnesota Wild could use a spark in their lineup, and with $11MM in cap space on deadline day, the Wild are poised to make a splash. In addition to cap space, the Wild also hold all but one of their draft picks over the next three years, missing only their 2022 seventh-round pick. One spark that seems to make plenty of sense for Minnesota is Winnipeg Jets’ forward Andrew Copp.

Copp, 27, is currently making $3.64MM and is a pending UFA, but could certainly slot into Minnesota’s long-term plans if they can re-sign him. The forward currently has 13 goals and 19 assists in 54 games for Winnipeg this season, which would put him tied for fifth on the Wild in points. However, Copp’s talent is not limited to his offense, as he currently profiles as a strong penalty killer for the Jets and is incredibly responsible, recording just eight penalty minutes in 54 games this season, and just 82 penalty minutes in 465 career games.

One concern might be the return for Copp. While the Jets are not in playoff contention, they do not appear headed for a rebuild, having a majority of their core signed or under team control through at least 2023-24. Trading Copp for draft picks, which the Wild have plenty of, would return his value, but may not make much sense for the Jets if they intend to win soon. One player that may make sense in a return for Copp would be prospect Jack McBain. The 22-year-old McBain has been the center of trade rumors recently for Minnesota, as he is eligible to hit free agency this summer. However, McBain, who is from the Toronto area, may also prefer to sign closer to home.

Ultimately, it appears that Copp is on his way out of Winnipeg, and if the two sides can come to terms on a suitable return, it would be in the best interests of the Wild to make a move for an energetic and well-rounded forward to spark a team that has struggled mightily as of late.

Gavin Lee: Detroit Red Wings trade Nick Leddy (50% retained) to St. Louis Blues for Klim Kostin, Marco Scandella

“Stevie Y is up to something.” That’s the text that Emily Kaplan of ESPN received this week, as the Red Wings prepare for the deadline in an interesting position. The team obviously isn’t good enough yet to contend for the Stanley Cup but has the building blocks to start pushing for a playoff position as soon as next season. With that in mind, targeting young players that have yet to make an impact makes sense, instead of just collecting draft picks like deadlines past.

Leddy has been linked to the Dallas Stars in recent days, and while they make sense, it seems more likely that they’re offering up a package of futures, instead of someone like Kostin who could impact the Red Wings lineup down the stretch and next season. The 30-year-old Leddy isn’t the player he once was but can still make an impact in a more limited role, something he could receive in St. Louis as they try to work their way back to the Stanley Cup.

You aren’t going to steal Kostin out of St. Louis for a few months of a depth defenseman though, so Detroit would need to provide some other value to the Blues. That’s where Scandella comes in, as the 32-year-old has taken a noticeable step back this season and is signed through 2023-24 at a $3.275MM cap hit. The thing is, for a team like the Red Wings, acquiring a cap hit like Scandella is almost meaningless given how much financial flexibility they’ve built, and he could essentially replace the veteran presence of Marc Staal next season. Scandella does hold a partial no-trade clause, but how likely is it that Detroit is one of the seven teams he has blocked?

The prize here is Kostin, a player that has struggled to find regular minutes in St. Louis. Since being selected 31st overall in 2017, the big forward has spent most of his time in the AHL, playing in most of three seasons before even making his NHL debut and now ending up back there this year. There’s a risk here for Detroit; Kostin isn’t signed past this season and could bolt for the KHL as a restricted free agent this summer, but there’s also a possibility that he establishes himself quickly as a middle-six option for a rebuilding club.

A second-round pick is nice, sure, but at some point, the Red Wings will have to start looking at players closer to the NHL. Kostin is exactly that, and the teams have a recent history of something just like this. In 2019, Detroit acquired Robby Fabbri from the Blues in exchange for Jacob de la Rose, and gave him an opportunity he wasn’t ever going to receive in St. Louis after major knee surgery. Kostin hasn’t been blocked because of injury, but perhaps the Red Wings could provide a similar chance for him to play more than the nine minutes he’s averaged over his 46-game career to this point.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Panel: Offer Sheet Opining

September 3, 2021 at 2:46 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 10 Comments

Tomorrow, there is a deadline for the Montreal Canadiens to decide whether or not to match the offer sheet signed by Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the Carolina Hurricanes. The decision they have is a simple one on its face–pay Kotkaniemi $6.1MM for the 2021-22 season, or take Carolina’s first- and third-round picks to let him go.

But it’s much more than just a one-year decision and it has implications that reach much further than just one player. Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin has been completely silent since the agreement was announced just under a week ago, though there has been some reporting that the team is testing the market on replacement options should Kotkaniemi end up in Carolina.

With this uncommon situation, we’ve decided to unearth one of our former features: The PHR Panel. This time we’re welcoming Josh Erickson to the panel after he joined PHR earlier this offseason, but I, Brian La Rose, and Zach Leach will all give our thoughts as normal on what Montreal should do.

Q: Should Montreal match the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet?

Brian La Rose:

There are two key questions where the answer determines what Montreal should do. Is there a capable second-line center that can be acquired via trade that will be around for more than a year or two? Also, if there is indeed the possibility of an extension below that AAV with Carolina as has been suggested including by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the latest 31 Thoughts podcast, is that also available to Montreal?

If they are unable to land an impact center elsewhere, they may have to bite the bullet as their younger internal options aren’t ready to step into that type of role; the Jonathan Drouin experiment didn’t work the last time they tried it and there’s no reason to think it will now. And on the extension front, if there’s an acceptable one that can effectively be worked out – nothing can be made official until January – then matching for this season knowing a better contract is on the horizon becomes more palatable.

If there’s a reasonable trade waiting for Bergevin that lands him a capable second center behind Nick Suzuki, then walking away and taking the two picks makes sense. Otherwise, with how weak their depth down the middle would be (and there aren’t any impact centers in the pipeline either), they may very well have to match despite the overpayment and the potential for a much messier cap situation moving forward. With things dragging out this long, it doesn’t seem like a viable trade is presenting itself so matching starts to look a bit more viable as a result for the Canadiens but it will undoubtedly be a tough pill to swallow.

Zach Leach:

The Canadiens should match the Kotkaniemi offer sheet. Yes, it may not be the more reasonable of the two choices, but then again this was not a reasonable move in the first place. The Hurricanes clearly have interest in Kotkaniemi, but this offer sheet is all about revenge and embarrassment. Carolina made that perfectly clear with the manner in which they announced and subsequently responded to the news of the offer sheet on social media. If Montreal does not match the offer, then they are making the Hurricanes just the second team to successfully offer sheet a player since the turn of the century. They are admitting that Carolina did a better job of poaching a young impact player than they did two years ago. They are surrendering.

Even if Kotkaniemi is not worth $6.1MM, which no one believes that he is right now, the Canadiens are giving up a promising, 21-year-old prospect who they selected with the No. 3 pick just three years ago, and moreover, he is going to what is suddenly a bitter rival. The Hurricanes may already have a handshake agreement on a more accurately-priced extension with Koktaniemi as well. The young center has tremendous possession numbers, has shown flashes of immense scoring ability, and is filling out his frame and becoming a more physical presence. Kotkaniemi could still be a star in the NHL, even if the early results at a very young age have been unspectacular. He is certainly worth more than late first- and third-round picks, especially to a Montreal team that is thin down the middle. Even if the Canadiens flip that draft pick compensation for a replacement for Kotkaniemi, they are doing so with the rest of the league knowing exactly what is going on and will not receive fair value and likely not adequately address the departure.

Sure, there are serious cap implications for the Canadiens. However, in the short term, they can make room for Kotkaniemi to begin the year, even with a full 23-man roster, by placing Shea Weber on LTIR and burying Paul Byron and Cedric Paquette. Montreal could also keep Kotkaniemi, a center they desperately need, and instead trade a superfluous winger such as Artturi Lehkonen. Might things be tight, short-term and long-term, by accommodating Kotkaniemi’s cap hit? Definitely. But if the Hurricanes are willing to make adjustments, then so too should the Canadiens. Allowing Kotkaniemi to walk and replacing him with another high-cost trade acquisition doesn’t make much cap sense either.

Any result in which the Canadiens do not match the offer sheet is a win for the Hurricanes and a loss for the Canadiens, and frankly, Montreal needs a win. This all began with a poorly constructed offer sheet two years ago for Sebastian Aho that ended up being a favor to the Hurricanes. A better offer could have landed the team the franchise center that they have been looking for. Montreal moved on, made different choices with their forwards, and surprised everyone with a run to the Stanley Cup this season. However, they fell short and now are set to return to the lion’s den that is the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Florida Panthers. Their off-season has been defined by a controversial draft choice and several free agent contracts whose values were worthy of skepticism. The Canadiens do not need another blemish this season. Maybe Kotkaniemi doesn’t pan out in the long term, but this is about more than just one player. It is about the image of the club and the morale in the locker room. The Canadiens need to assert themselves and demand some respect when the Hurricanes showed little. They can do that by matching the offer.

Josh Erickson:

There are so many reasons why Montreal’s matching of the Kotkaniemi offer sheet would be completely nonsensical.

Cap space is the most obvious and pressing issue. While Montreal could currently accomodate Kotkaniemi’s $6.1MM cap hit with their LTIR situation, they wouldn’t be able to all season. Byron won’t be out the entire year and will come off LTIR at some point, leaving only Weber’s $7.85MM cap hit on LTIR. With Montreal already spending $2.27MM into their LTIR pool, an additional $6.1MM caused by Kotkaniemi wouldn’t make the team cap-compliant. Even as it stands, Montreal’s active roster only has 19 skaters (Chris Wideman being the likely healthy scratch).

It also doesn’t make a lot of sense to drastically change the team’s makeup to retain Kotkaniemi. The team’s demonstrated a commitment to head coach Dominique Ducharme, who hasn’t developed the best relationship with Kotkaniemi at this point in his career. Selling off assets in order to retain a player who’s future with the club remains uncertain past this season, especially one with a $6.1MM qualifying offer, doesn’t seem like the best position to take from an asset management standpoint.

It all stands to say that the first- and third-round picks are far more valuable to the team at this point in time than Kotkaniemi at a $6.1MM cap hit and qualifying offer. There’s no guarantee that Montreal would be able to receive that return for Kotkaniemi in a future trade.

Gavin Lee:

As you can see from my colleagues, this situation has produced drastically different opinions. That’s exactly what a well-constructed offer sheet is supposed to do; make it a difficult decision on the original team, who then will have to take a gamble one way or the other. There’s no clear answer here for the Canadiens like there was with the Aho offer sheet two years ago.

The simple fact is that Montreal is trying to win right now. You don’t go out and sign Mike Hoffman and David Savard if you’re willing to spend a year developing young talent. The Canadiens want to give Carey Price the best chance to win a Stanley Cup right now, and frankly, I don’t see how letting Kotkaneimi walk helps in that pursuit. Unless there is a legitimate difference-maker out there that you think you can land with those additional assets–someone like Jack Eichel–sure, let him walk and flip the picks. But if you’re going to turn around and trade for someone like Christian Dvorak? Just match the offer and take your chances with an extension negotiation down the road.

The idea that Kotkaniemi is a bust is misguided. If anything, it’s just that his development was rushed by the Canadiens in the first place due to how much they believed in his talent. He turned 21 in July and has already played in 200 NHL games, including 29 postseason contests. He may never become the Anze Kopitar that people compared him to in his draft year–which was always a bit ridiculous–but the idea that he’ll never become more than a third-line center is still very premature.

There is also a mechanism that could get the $6.1MM qualifying offer down a bit, though that may provide little comfort to fans that have already made up their mind on Kotkaniemi. If he fails to live up to that kind of a contract, the Canadiens could elect salary arbitration in the usually unused first window in lieu of a qualifying offer and retain his rights with 85%–$5.185MM–of his contract value. Suddenly that becomes a little more palatable, though it can only be done once in a player’s career and it doesn’t guarantee that salary.

It’s not a situation I’d want to be in, but unless Montreal has a replacement–and a good one, not just a middle-six player–waiting in the wings, they should match the offer.

PHR Panel: Trade Deadline Predictions

April 11, 2021 at 2:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 12 Comments

With just 24 hours remaining before the 2021 NHL trade deadline, things are heating up around the league. Several big moves have already been made, with David Savard, Kyle Palmieri, and Brandon Montour all traded to contenders. There’s more coming before 3pm EST tomorrow, with Taylor Hall still drawing plenty of attention among many others.

With the deadline approaching, we thought we’d unearth one of our former features: The PHR Panel. This time it’ll come with a bit of a twist, as instead of answering questions, we’re going to be having some fun. Each of us will give one prediction for a deadline move, and we encouraged each other to go a bit outside the box if necessary. These deals are completely speculative and just done for fun–but make sure you tell us why we’re out of our minds in the comments!

Q: Predict one trade that will happen before the deadline

Brian La Rose: Luke Glendening to EDM

The Edmonton Oilers are known to be looking for a right-shot center that can help kill penalties and win faceoffs. Detroit happens to have one available in Luke Glendening, a player that GM Ken Holland is quite familiar with; he gave the forward the four-year, $7.2MM contract that is set to expire this summer, a clear sign that he was a fan of what the 31-year-old can provide.

Edmonton has been very quietly creating salary cap flexibility with the recent placements of Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis, and Joakim Nygard on waivers, giving them the ability to send any of them to the taxi squad to free up cap space. If the Red Wings are willing to retain up to 50% on Glendening’s contract, they could acquire him and have Turris go to the taxi squad in a move that would actually free up a bit more room for Edmonton to work with. With the Oilers missing their second and third-round picks this year already, they’re more likely to part with a 2022 selection to do a deal like this.

Is Glendening going to be a secondary scorer which is something that Edmonton also needs? No, but if he can just provide the two elements that he has with Detroit, he will check off a pair of important boxes for the Oilers. Holland showed faith in giving Glendening what was an above-market extension at the time and he’ll show more faith in him by bringing him to Edmonton.

Holger Stolzenberg: Conor Garland to VGK

With Vegas relatively tight up against the salary cap, the Golden Knights now more than ever will be looking for a cheap forward. They are set in net and seem pretty strong defensively. Where they are lacking is on offense—especially in scoring. The team is hopeful for another Stanley Cup run like they had in their inaugural season and while they are 11th in goals/game, they have struggled more recently to score and could really use one more top-six forward. Enter Garland, who would be quite an upgrade and a player the team could hold onto since he’s expected to hit restricted free agency next season. He would be an excellent fit in Vegas after a breakout season in 2018-19 and an even better year last season. His numbers look to be close to on par this year once again. At $775K, he’s the perfect fit.

Normally, the Coyotes would want to hang onto Garland, but the team is known to be struggling financially, has expressed interest in cutting salary, and might be open to moving Garland for the right price. Things are a little more complicated for Arizona as they are still battling for fourth place in the Central Division, which could stop general manager Bill Armstrong from selling. However, could Vegas move its first-rounder (something they ordinarily don’t do) and a top prospect (Lucas Elvenes might make sense here, although there are other solid prospects the team could offer) to pry him away? Stranger things have happened.

Zach Leach: Sam Bennett to COL

What happened to all of the Sam Bennett rumors? Earlier this season, a Bennett trade seemed imminent on multiple occasions and it was a foregone conclusion that he would be traded before the deadline at the latest. Yet, for over a month now there has been nothing but silence out of Calgary on Bennett’s status and there are just hours left until the deadline passes. Are the Flames just too good to be trading roster players? Nope. In fact, the team’s 2-8-0 record in their past ten games is the worst mark in the NHL. Calgary has fallen to fifth place in the North Division and are well outside of a playoff spot. They’re sellers. So has Bennett just played so well that he can’t be traded? No, it’s not that either. Bennett recorded just three points in the month of March and has one goal in his past 19 games. By all accounts, the situation surrounding the Flames and Bennett has not changed, but the hype surrounding a potential deal has cooled nonetheless.

Flames GM Brad Treliving has repeatedly said that he did not want to rush into a Bennett trade. However, that was months ago and nothing has changed. The 24-year-old forward has shown flashes of upside, but it simply hasn’t been a good fit in Calgary. Even with the coaching change to Darryl Sutter, whose style should favor a player like Bennett, there has been little improvement from the 2014 fourth overall pick. Both sides just need to move on. If Bennett remains in Calgary beyond the deadline, he will very likely be exposed in the Expansion Draft and could be lost for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. Even if that doesn’t happen, the Flames may seriously consider not offering the restricted free agent a qualifying offer at his $2.55MM mark. In either scenario, Calgary comes away with nothing. In a trade, they come away with something, even if Bennett’s trade value is at its lowest point. Unless Treliving and company still quietly believe in the long-term potential of Bennett and plan to protect him in expansion and then re-sign him, they need to make this move.

Colorado may not immediately come to mind as a suitor for forward help. Their public pursuit of a backup goalie and rumors that they are eyeing a defenseman as well would seemingly make forward their third-highest priority. However, the Avalanche are one of the very best teams in the NHL this season and a top contender for the Stanley Cup. They also have ample salary cap room, unlike many of the other buyers scouring the market. GM Joe Sakic is going to do his best to check off every single box that he can because that is what you do when you have a real chance at a championship. Bennett makes a lot of sense for what the Avalanche need. As good as their forward corps has been this year, with a dominant top line and good secondary scoring, there is a major drop-off after their top eight forwards. J.T. Compher has had a down year, Tyson Jost has again failed to take a step forward, and Matt Calvert has been all but written out of the lineup. The team needs a boost in the bottom six and Bennett fits the bill, especially since he could be a solution beyond just 2020-21 as well.

While his career offensive profile is similar to Jost’s, Bennett has a slightly better goal-scoring touch and, importantly, has an excellent track record in the playoffs. Yet, offense may not even be Bennett’s most important contribution to Colorado. The Avalanche desperately need to add physicality to their lineup. The team ranks dead last in the NHL with just 15.06 hits per 60 minutes and the biggest threat to their postseason success is the potential of getting pushed around by a bigger, tougher opponent. Enter Bennett. For a player who couldn’t do even one pull-up at the NHL Combine, Bennett has developed into a heavy, aggressive player. His physicality has been the one element of his game that has never wavered and the Avalanche could desperately use a player who can improve their checking game and make them more difficult to play against.

As for the return, the Flames are more likely to land a prospect than a pick if dealing with the Avalanche. Colorado is already missing their 2021 and 2022 second-round picks, as well their 2021 fourth- and sixth-rounders. Bennett is certainly not worthy of a first-round pick, but even asking the Avs for a third-round pick in either of the next two years could be a tall task. Fortunately, Colorado has a solid pipeline, especially down the middle, and Calgary has a long-term need at center. While Alex Newhook and Shane Bowers are not on the table in a Bennett deal, their presence in the system could make a nice piece like Jean-Luc Foudy expendable. The 2020 third-round pick plays with speed and vision and has the makings of an NHL play-maker down the road. He would be a nice project for the Flames with the upside to be the top-nine center that Calgary had hoped Bennett would be. It seems like a fair swap all things considered.

Gavin Lee: Jamie Oleksiak to TOR

I know what you’re thinking, Maple Leafs fans. Oleksiak? That’s it? Don’t be so dismissive of the 6’7″ defenseman just because he’s played in Dallas for most of his career. Toronto may have publicly stated that they need forwards, but adding some defensive depth should also be in the plan for GM Kyle Dubas. After trading Mikko Lehtonen earlier in the season, the team doesn’t have a ton of reliable options to plug in should any of their starters go down.

Martin Marincin currently looks like the team’s seventh defenseman, with Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren behind him. That’s one player who has never been able to secure an NHL job and two young prospects without much experience. Oleksiak would be a perfect complement to the group, able to move into the lineup in case of injury or even perhaps unseat Travis Dermott on the third pairing.

The fact that he’s from Toronto—his younger sister Penny is an Olympic swimmer from the city—and a pending free agent makes him a realistic fit, given the team’s insistence that rentals are the target this season. Toronto has a little bit of added cap flexibility after acquiring the LTIR-bound Riley Nash, and if Dallas (or a go-between) retained some of Oleskiak’s $2.14MM cap hit he wouldn’t cost much more than the league minimum.

This is a unique opportunity for the Maple Leafs to go deep in the playoffs without facing Tampa Bay or Boston. Adding depth is a crucial part of those long runs, and Oleksiak shouldn’t come at a prohibitive cost.

PHR Panel: Revisiting The 2018 Draft

May 15, 2020 at 5:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

We’re now two months into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, with the 2020 draft still not set in stone, we take a look at how some top picks are performing a few years into their careers.

Q: Who will end up being the best player from the 2018 draft?

Brian La Rose:

Back in 2018, the answer was Rasmus Dahlin. Nearly two years later, I don’t think that answer has changed.

While the Sabres have continued to struggle even with Dahlin in the fold, it certainly hasn’t been because of him. He had a lot thrown at him during his rookie season, perhaps too much for an 18-year-old defenseman. Despite that, he still did quite well. He was even better this season and was on pace to set new career-highs in points in spite of a dip in playing time if it wasn’t for a concussion and a minor upper-body issue that cost him ten games combined.

Defensively, Dahlin is still a little shaky at times but that’s par for the course for a young blueliner. He has made considerable improvements over his first two years and that should continue as he plays more and gets stronger.

At the end of the day, I’m not sure he’ll be the top offensive defender from this class but Dahlin’s all-around game will be enough to put him ahead of Quinn Hughes in terms of value. There will be some quality scorers from the 2018 draft (there already are) but they won’t be able to impact the game like a franchise defender that should consistently log over 25 minutes a night in his prime. Buffalo picking Dahlin back in June of 2018 signaled that they felt he was the best player in his draft class. There’s little reason to think otherwise at this point.

Holger Stolzenberg:

There are quite a few players that I like from this draft, but I’m going to go with the belief that the Buffalo Sabres got it right. Yes, Dahlin may not be that flashy defenseman who immediately dominated the league like fellow young blueliners Cale Makar and Hughes. Yet Dahlin is exactly what the team needed and has filled a major role in the two years he’s been in the league.

While his numbers look rather pedestrian through two seasons with 84 combined points, considering his status as the first-overall pick in 2018, those are actually impressive numbers for a teenaged blueliner. While they hardly compare to the first two seasons that Phil Housley had with Buffalo (he had 143 points), the league was quite different back in the early 80s with more goal scoring. In fact, the Sabres average more than one fewer goal per game now than they did back then, suggesting that Dahlin is much more comparable.

Now 20 years old, Dahlin is getting close to hitting his prime and should eventually have that breakout year to prove that he’s the best player in this draft. The blueliner has proven to be solid defensively and has good offensive skills, both of which should only get better. He will be a great player for years to come. We just might have to wait a little longer to see that play out.

Zach Leach:

The 2018 draft class has yet to produce enough players with considerable NHL experience to truly make an educated guess on this question. Many, like college standouts Scott Perunovich (STL) and Tyler Madden (LAK), have yet to even debut, while some top picks like Oliver Wahlstrom (NYI) and Evan Bouchard (EDM) have only played in a handful of games. I like all four of these players to have good NHL careers, but I simply don’t have the sample size I need to say that any could be the best player of the class.

For now, I still consider the players that I personally felt were the top four players in the 2018 class to be the leading contenders to have the best NHL career: Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov, Buffalo’s Dahlin, Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, and Vancouver’s Hughes (I had Wahlstrom at No. 5). Even in the midst of Dahlin mania back in June 2018, I felt Svechnikov was a special talent and a dynamic presence that was deserving of being the top overall pick. That’s why I listed him first and will stick with him as the player that I feel has the best chance to be the top player in his class. Dahlin, Tkachuk, and especially Hughes have certainly shown that they can be elite players and difference-makers for their respective franchises, but I feel that Svechnikov will outplay and outlast the field.

Svechnikov, who leads the 2018 class in goals, points, and games played, has already asserted himself as a franchise centerpiece for the Hurricanes. He has the natural offensive instincts as well as the willingness to play physically and win puck battles to be a scoring threat and key presence on offense for a long time still to come. I do not see Svechnikov’s offense drying up; in fact, his growth from year one to year two shows me that he is absolutely still on the rise and his near point-per-game pace this season is just the beginning of his offensive upside and I feel he will have staying power among the NHL’s elite once he arrives. I see Alex Ovechkin as the ceiling for Svechnikov, which would certainly give him a good chance at the title of best player in the 2018 class, both in ability and longevity.

Gavin Lee:

While I may not quite be on the same level as Zach when it comes to Svechnikov—what a comparable!—I too had him ranked as the best player in 2018 over Dahlin. There’s simply nothing that Svechnikov can’t do offensively. I was actually surprised he didn’t have a better rookie season, but the Hurricanes brought him along slowly with severely limited even-strength minutes and often only had him on the second powerplay unit. There’s nothing wrong with that, but when the team let him loose this season you started to see what Svechnikov is truly capable of.

No, it’s not all lacrosse goals and nifty dangles. The 6’2″ forward is a force when he gets to full speed, and can seemingly still make crisp passes with a defender hanging onto his back. He was on a 73-point pace this season while still averaging fewer than 14 minutes of even-strength ice time. When 16:44 (total) per game starts creeping close to 20:00, watch out for a player who one day may legitimately contend for both the Rocket Richard and Art Ross (remember, he only just turned 20).

There are some outstanding players in the field, but I’ll still put my money on the big Russian.

PHR Panel: We Miss Hockey

May 4, 2020 at 6:15 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

We’re now more than a month into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, as the hockey world focuses on the upcoming draft and whether or not it will be held in June, we discuss what we miss most about the sport we love.

Q: Which part of hockey do you miss the most?

Brian La Rose:

The first round of the playoffs which, from an entertainment perspective, is the best one in my books is what I miss the most.

Depending on the schedule, there would be three to five games basically every night for the first week or so until some series ended early. Between the different time zones, you could always watch a couple of games each weeknight and on the weekends, they’d be staggered out even more which basically made each Saturday and Sunday ‘hockey day’ for a couple of weeks.

The first round often features some of the best matchups, especially with the current format. Teams are fresher; the wear and tear of the playoff grind isn’t there yet so the physicality can be higher than it is later on. And of course, the first round of the NHL playoffs is always good for an upset or two…or more.

The day-to-day grind that is the regular season is fun in itself. But mid-April often represents the most exciting time of the season.

Holger Stolzenberg:

Having spent the last 15 years in Vegas, I have really grown attached to the Vegas Golden Knights franchise and what I miss more than anything is the day-to-day life of the hockey world. I miss games, I miss everything about hockey. However, it’s the stories, the injury updates, the scores … life in the hockey world that I really miss.

I was just walking by a Golden Knights poster in my home when I remembered that the team is still sitting in first place in the Pacific Division. I had basically forgotten that the season is still going on and the playoffs, in theory, aren’t that far off. Yet at the same time, it definitely feels like these things are unlikely to happen for so long that I forget what it’s like to be a hockey fan, which I find quite disturbing.

It’s bad enough being shut up in your home, but having no games and little hockey news is definitely making this shutdown order even more challenging.

Zach Leach:

At this time of year in particular, the part of hockey that I miss most is playoff hockey. Even back in mid-March when the season was initially paused, the focus had already shifted toward the postseason for many clubs. Of course, the stretch run can be exciting for those teams on the bubble, but a number of top contenders were already closing in on locking up playoff seeds and a picture of how playoff match-ups might play out had begun to form. Instead of currently enjoying the fruits of the regular season, gearing up for Conference Finals, more than a month has passed since the last regular season game and we’re still left to wonder whether the playoffs will even occur this year and if so, in what form or fashion.

Playoff hockey is unlike anything else in sports; a pace and intensity that is unrivaled. The importance of each game and even each goal in the playoffs places immense emphasis on every second, leading to triumphant victories and heartbreaking losses. It is hard not get caught up in the excitement, regardless of whether your favorite team is involved or not. Fortunately, the NHL’s competitive balance is such that only the Buffalo Sabres and Arizona Coyotes have not made a playoff appearance in the past five years, so fans of nearly every team know how it feels to have recently had playoff success on the line. To have the opportunity to enjoy that experience stripped away this year without any concrete plan for a postseason revival down the road is a tough pill to swallow and is definitely what I am missing most as an avid hockey fan.

Gavin Lee:

Other than my own beer league games being canceled—which is killing me—the thing I miss most about the hockey season is actually the playoffs at the amateur level. The Frozen Four and the Memorial Cup are some of my favorite hockey every year, giving me a chance to see the next wave of talent headed to the NHL.

More than the scouting aspect though is the emotion these young kids exhibit. I’ve always leaned toward amateur sports because of how the athletes seem to wear their successes and failures right on their sleeves. A championship is a memory not only for them but everyone that has ever attended or cheered for the program, while a defeat is a bitter reminder of how difficult those titles are to win.

It’s also the finality that a loss brings which makes the stakes that much higher. Sure, getting eliminated from the NHL playoffs must be heartbreaking, but for most of the players involved they know they’ll have another chance next year. For anyone that has played amateur sport at a high level, the feeling of emptiness that follows the last game of your last season is unlike anything else. It’s the knowledge that feeling is coming that makes the games so much more important.

PHR Panel: Naming Seattle’s New Team

April 29, 2020 at 5:30 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 23 Comments

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, with another report that the Seattle expansion franchise is close to revealing a team name, we’ll give our thoughts on what we would choose.

Q: What would you name the Seattle expansion franchise?

Brian La Rose:

Most people seem to like Kraken as Seattle’s eventual team name (and that’s what I think it will be in the end) so I’ll go in a different direction for this discussion. Let’s go back in time about 100 years back to the old days of the PCHA where there was a team called the Seattle Metropolitans. That team very quietly won the Stanley Cup back in 1917 and had a shot at another one in 1919 before the Spanish flu pandemic struck so there is some history worth celebrating.

We’ve seen a shift in recent years towards franchises embracing the past. Retro uniforms are quite popular (though I’m not advocating for the Metropolitans to go back to their old sweaters – they were a bit of an eyesore) and alumni nights in some cities are more frequent. We’ve seen an old team name revived in the past with the Ottawa Senators (who coincidentally played against the Metropolitans in the 1920 Stanley Cup Final) so there is some precedence here as well.

Yes, there could be some confusion with the team effectively sharing the same name as the Metropolitan Division. But there’s an easy fix to that – just change the name of the division which wouldn’t be a bad idea in the first place. Embrace some of hockey’s past and fix a poorly-named division at the same time? That’s a win-win situation right there.

Holger Stolzenberg:

I keep looking at all the names and there are several I like. However, whenever I see a new team coming up with a nickname (in any sport, at any level), I often find myself disappointed in generic names that don’t tie in with the city or town’s local history.

I keep hearing the name Kraken over and over again. Not sure whether that will end up being that name, but naming the Seattle franchise after a mythical creature doesn’t make much sense to me. I look at a name like the Sockeyes and I like how the name ties in with the Seattle salmon culture, while also being a name that could have a second-meaning of being punched in the eye, which seems very hockey-like in my opinion.

Granted, I’m not the one making the decision, nor should I, but I definitely am a fan of the Sockeye and hope that is what the Seattle franchise eventually goes with. Will I be disappointed if they go with anything else? No. I can even live with the Kraken, but I would rather see that name tie in with the city in a better way than a mythical creature.

Zach Leach:

The name, logo, and colors of an expansion team is more important than you might think. While merchandising and licensing are just a small fraction of a franchise’s income, the first impression created by their name and look has a far greater reaching impact. Especially in the internet age, a new club can build their fan base beyond their geographical limits by having a “cool” name, popular mascot or unique color scheme. Just look at the Premier Lacrosse League for example; the 2019 start-up had no geographical attachment and most fans were left to pick a team to root for by color and logo only, leading to a number of creative and diverse designs.

So while the Seattle expansion team has several nostalgic traditional names on the table– Metropolitans and Seals for example–as well as more locally-influenced options such as Rainiers and Emeralds, I believe the team should go in a more progressive direction and choose a name, logo, and colors that more widely appeal to North American and even global audiences and the younger generation.

To accomplish this goal, I would say that Kraken is the best option for the team name. The uniqueness and whimsical nature of the name will stand out and there is a ton of potential for a great logo and colors. I think that the Kraken is different enough from any other professional moniker out there to really drum up interest in the team via merchandise sales and publicity. If the majority opinion online is any indication, Kraken would be a hit.

In that same vein, the internet also reacted strongly to a rumor that the team’s colors could be salmon and teal, which would likely indicate the Sockeyes moniker. Has any pro team ever attempted such bold color choices? Such a move would be sure to sell a ton of merchandise that would undoubtedly turn heads. Sockeyes would also appeal to the local fan base, as would the alliteration that seems to be a theme with Seattle sports.

While it may not realistically be on the board, I will also throw out Sasquatch as a great option to draw attention to the new club. The mascot alone would be a game-changer and there is potential for a good logo. However, this does toe the line of too silly if not done properly and there is no clear color scheme either.

Gavin Lee:

Let’s get this out of the way immediately; I hate the name Kraken. I hate it. I don’t want the Seattle Kraken in the NHL. I’m probably going to be disappointed when they announce it as the team name, but I just hate it.

I get the idea behind the traditional names, especially the Metropolitans and Totems. But I don’t think I would name the new franchise those either. I would go for something new and non-alliterative.

I kind of like the idea of the Seattle Freeze. It’s a clever way to poke fun at the city—Seattle Freeze has been a way to describe the population’s standoffish demeanor for years—and could lend itself to some interesting marketing opportunities. Even that name though brings a little bit of hesitation, because of the corny connection to ice, but it might be what I go with.

Honestly, as long as it’s not Kraken I would be happy. Totems. Metropolitans. Pilots. Sockeye (or Sockeyes?). Wait, no I don’t want Emeralds or Sasquatch either. I’m a bit pickier than I thought.

PHR Panel: What Happens Between Pittsburgh’s Pipes?

April 22, 2020 at 6:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the Pittsburgh goaltending situation.

Q: Which goalie should Pittsburgh commit to as their long-term starter?

Brian La Rose:

In the short term, I don’t think GM Jim Rutherford should necessarily be deciding on that just yet. While Seattle’s expansion draft is coming up, it’s still a year away. I’d be looking to do one-year deals with both Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry and let them battle out for who to keep and who goes to Seattle then.

While Jarry has played quite well this season, I don’t think he has accomplished enough to build back some of the value he lost over the last couple of years. Yes, he played like a capable ’goalie of the future’ this season but he still has all of 62 career NHL games. Teams aren’t going to part with a top asset with that little experience so they may as well hold onto him.

As for Murray, he hasn’t had a great year (an .899 SV% isn’t ideal) so his value isn’t at its peak either. I wouldn’t be shocked if they could get more for him than Jarry at this point but it’s still not enough to justify moving one. Going with an above-average tandem in 2020-21 is Plan A in my books.

Looking ahead, if Jarry performs at a similar level next season, I’d lean towards going with him as the one to keep. He’s a year younger and should be a little cheaper than Murray on his next couple of deals and with their salary cap situation, every dollar is going to count.

Holger Stolzenberg:

The Penguins are in a tough position with both their young goaltenders hitting restricted free agency. The biggest problem is which goalie they should commit to long-term. I’ve always considered Murray to be the starter since he supplanted Marc-Andre Fleury and they allowed him to go to Vegas. Murray has been highly inconsistent over the years, but at age 25, I’m not sure if he will ever develop into the star goaltender that the team envisioned years ago.

Murray nosedived last year with a 2.87 GAA and a .899 save percentage in 38 games and basically, lost his job to Jarry, suggesting the team might want to move on. You can’t really even blame the Pittsburgh defense for his struggles this season despite the number of injuries their blueline sustained, because Jarry was so much better. He had a 2.43 GAA and a .921 save percentage in 33 appearances.

Personally, I have to wonder if Murray is capable of getting past his inconsistency. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean that Jarry is the answer. One good year doesn’t mean he’s their goaltender of the future. However, I think it might be better to give Jarry every opportunity to win the job and maybe even trade Murray to a team that is in need of a young goaltender, who might be able to turn his career around.

Zach Leach:

Few goalies in NHL history have gotten off to a better start in their careers than Murray, who posted stellar numbers in his first two years, particularly in the postseason, and took home back-to-back Stanley Cups. Many Penguins fans felt that he was the heir apparent and the team seemingly agreed, giving up assets to the Vegas Golden Knights ahead of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft to ensure that Fleury was selected instead of Murray.

How quickly things change though. Over the past three years, Murray’s numbers have been inconsistent, his playoff performance has been poor, and his health continues to be an issue. Heading into a potential arbitration hearing this summer, Murray lacks the most important piece of leverage in the negotiation: recent results. Jarry unquestionably outplayed Murray this season, who was a replacement-level goalie at best. By all accounts, Murray still feels he is worth a major raise and extensive term on his next contract, but does not have the numbers in recent years to back up that claim. Jarry, who lacks the same experience but is younger, healthier, and honestly better right now, will likely be the superior performer and the cheaper option over the next few years.

If I were the Penguins, I would give Jarry a contract similar to Murray’s expiring pact and see if he can succeed in maintaining a high level of play unlike his predecessor. I would trade Murray, who still has name value but is not worth the money nor the injury trouble. And I would take advantage of a free agent market that is rife with talented veterans to add an established older name to play second fiddle to the young Jarry.

Gavin Lee:

It’s hard to get all four of us to agree on something, but Murray’s recent struggles have obviously dulled his shine a bit. My choice is simple and it’s not because of anything particular I see when I watch them.

I’ve been advocating for quite some time that NHL organizations need to start thinking more about the excess value a contract can provide, and with that in mind Jarry is the easy answer. Murray’s next contract, if the Penguins were to commit to him as their full-time starter, would leave little room for him to outperform it. Sure, he could become the best goaltender in the league and give you a little excess value, but it’s far more likely that he gives you a performance you could buy on the free agent or trade market for the same kind of money (or, alternatively he continues to struggle and becomes a financial anchor).

Take Jake Allen’s contract for instance. At the time he signed his current four-year, $17.4MM deal he was a young promising goaltender that looked to be the Blues long-term starter. They let Brian Elliott leave and handed Allen the reins, but how much could he have really been expected to outperform that deal? As it turned out he had a few off years—but none as bad as the one Murray just experienced—and likely could have been acquired at any point by a team looking for goaltending.

Jarry on the other hand has a ton of room for excess value still, given he’s coming off a league-minimum deal and doesn’t have the track record to demand a huge raise in arbitration. If he can even perform at a league-average rate the Penguins would be getting back more than they’re putting in. Those little bits of excess value are exactly how you win in this league.

PHR Panel: Playoff Predicting

April 17, 2020 at 6:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 8 Comments

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the future of three struggling west coast franchises.

Q: Which team has the best chance at a playoff spot next season: San Jose, Anaheim or Los Angeles?

Brian La Rose:

Of the California trio, the Sharks have the best chance of making it and I say that fully knowing that they’re going to be bringing the same core group back that has currently has them dead last in the Western Conference. But with the Kings still early in their rebuilding process and the Ducks’ youth movement not going as well as they hoped, neither of them are realistically in the postseason mix for next year so San Jose has the best odds by default.

The good news for the Sharks is that there’s cause for optimism. Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson are immediate bounce-back candidates after putting up underwhelming numbers (relative to their respective contracts) from the back end this season. That will help get them a few more wins.

It’s also hard to believe that they’ll be as banged up as they’ve been this year in 2020-21. Karlsson, Logan Couture, and Tomas Hertl are among the players that have missed at least 14 games due to injuries and it’s hard for any team to overcome that. While San Jose is in the basement this season, they wouldn’t be had it not been for their list of injuries. Being healthier will get them a few more wins as well.

They will certainly need better goaltending from Martin Jones next season but he can be better than he has been lately. I’m not saying I expect them to get back in next year but I wouldn’t be surprised if they did.

Holger Stolzenberg:

That’s a tough one. I really cannot under any circumstances see Anaheim or Los Angeles, both in the middle of full rebuilds suddenly jumping into the playoff race next year. I would be surprised if either team spent significant money on big free agents this offseason, which would be essential considering how young both squads are.

So, if there was a team that had a chance it might be San Jose, even though that seems like a stretch as well. The team does have quite a bit of veteran talent and some top players on their roster which could make them contenders. However, they don’t have enough of that talent and some of it has aged considerably such as Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau (assuming they return to the Sharks next season).

What they don’t seem to have is depth and with little cap room to work with (potential compliance buyouts notwithstanding), there is little incoming youth coming into San Jose. The team has traded most of its top picks and with much of their young talent in the AHL struggling last season, it’s hard to envision the Sharks being overly relevant in a top-heavy Pacific Division. Of course, the team could get a boost from Ryan Merkley next year on defense if he can prove he’s ready to play at the top level, but even that seems like a long-shot. Perhaps some high-quality, inexpensive depth signings could alleviate some of those issues and give the Sharks a chance.

Zach Leach:

Each member of what used to be an elite three-team rivalry in Southern California is looking for a return to form. While the Sharks may have the best veteran pieces and the Kings have the most cap flexibility to improve via free agency and trade, I will give the Ducks the best chance to make it back to the postseason in 2020-21.

I think that Anaheim has more talent than most people realize. It starts in goal with all-world keeper John Gibson, who would be a perennial Vezina candidate if he got more help. On the back end, Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, and Erik Gudbransson all missed considerable time due to injury this season, but if healthy and backed by youngsters Jacob Larsson, Brendan Guhle, and Josh Mahura, there is the potential for it to be a strong unit.

However, the forward corps is where there is the greatest opportunity for improvement from this season to next. The Ducks’ talent in the pipeline cannot be overlooked. Max Jones, Sam Steel, Troy Terry, Isac Lundestrom and Maxime Comtois will all have another pro season under their belts, while standouts Trevor Zegras and Brayden Tracey will be looking to make an impact as well. Add that group to veterans Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell, Adam Henrique, and Jakob Silfverberg, as well as new faces Danton Heinen and Sonny Milano, and Anaheim appears to have a number of potential difference-makers.

On paper, the Ducks seem to have the depth to be a contender and could look to add another high-end player, either on the blue line or perhaps as a physical force up front, to further that strength. Anaheim has fallen short of expectations for several years now, but with expectations for next year now lower than they probably should be, the Ducks have a chance to be a surprise playoff team is they can stay healthy and capitalize on their youth and talent.

Gavin Lee:

The loss of Joe Pavelski seemed to have a bigger impact than many expected on the Sharks this season, who at times looked leader-less and lost on the ice. Nothing went right for the team and perhaps they could bounce-back with some offseason tweaks, but I wonder if there isn’t more pain coming in San Jose before any pleasure.

Anaheim too could take a step forward to compete for a playoff spot, given how much young talent is coming up through the system. I’ve been vocal in my live chats for some time expressing my doubts in the real ceiling of some of their recent high draft picks, but there’s still a good chance at least a couple of them hit.

While it’s hard to imagine right now, I actually think that the Kings might be the best bet here.

The team is in the beginning stages of a rebuild no doubt, but there is a lot to like about what they’ve accomplished so far. After stripping several older pieces off the roster they not only loaded up on draft picks—six in the first three rounds this year—but also started playing much better. I’m a huge believer in Cal Petersen as a legitimate starter in the NHL and he showed it with a .922 save percentage in eight appearances, while Gabriel Vilardi is finally healthy enough to show why he was taken so high.

I think a new season with new expectations and new faces could rejuvenate Drew Doughty, allowing him to help mold some of the team’s talented young defenders into a strong unit.

In the games leading up to the league pause, the Kings were 10-2-1 and on a seven-game winning streak. I think that might be a sign of things to come, and they could potentially sneak into the playoffs as soon as next season.

Load More Posts

Headlines

PHR Panel

Holger Stolzenberg

Ethan Hetu

Gavin Lee

Brian La Rose

Zach Leach

John Gilroy

Nate Brown

Navigation

PHR Info

Connect