PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what’s next for the Blackhawks, Mitch Marner trade suggestions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.  The final one from our recent call-out for questions will run this weekend.

Unclemike1526: The Hawks have two firsts and three seconds. Who are the best goalie prospects in this year’s field? Commesso played well in the playoffs against a good team. I have no faith in Stauber or Soderblom. Gajan is far away. Who can they draft to solidify the position? 2nd round is where goalies seem to end up going and their own 2nd-round-pick should be a high one. As for Davidson, he says he wants to start adding talent to win. Where do you think he adds? Thanks.

I’ll start with the standard caveat that I’m not much of a scout and when it comes to goalies, I’m even worse so take this with the requisite grain of salt.  I don’t think it’s a particularly strong field, to be honest.  Last year, we saw talk of a goalie possibly going in the first round, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case this time around.  Carter George, Mikhail Yegorov, and Eemil Vini are the more prominent netminders of this class.  When a question like this came out last year, I also added a darkhorse candidate so I’ll pick Ryerson Leenders for that spot.

You noted that the Blackhawks have a couple of quality goalie prospects already in Drew Commesso and Adam Gajan.  Both have NHL potential and were drafted in the top 50 in their respective drafts, going 46th and 35th respectively.  We also know that there’s a long development curve for netminders.  So is it really in Chicago’s best interest to go after a goalie with their top second-rounder (34th overall) when that goalie might not be ready until 2029 or 2030?  (Not to mention that picking one of those goalies would be a reach.)  Wouldn’t it be better to go with a skater who will probably be a top-20 to top-25 option on their board?  I’m not against them picking a goalie but I wouldn’t consider it until the third round at the earliest with the two promising ones they already have.

As for where GM Kyle Davidson is looking to add, I don’t think there’s really a positional target, so to speak.  Instead, I think it’s going to targeting specific veterans who will be fits in the room and raise the floor of this group.  If it’s a top-four defenseman, great.  If it’s three bottom-six guys that take some of the defensive pressure off the younger forwards, that would work too.  Having said that, if Davidson got his best-case addition, I think it’d be a top-six winger that’s signed for a couple of years to give Connor Bedard an upgraded running mate.  Basically, another Taylor Hall type of pickup, just one that hopefully won’t miss most of next season due to injury.

based: It looks like the Leafs and Marner both possibly may want to move on. How about to Philly? A team trading for him I assume would need a contract extension in place.

I’m not so sure there’s a mutual desire to move on between Toronto and Mitch Marner.  While management was non-committal about bringing the core back, Marner said that a goal of his was a contract extension from the Maple Leafs this summer.  I think if he got his way, he’d stick around.

But let’s talk about the fit in Philadelphia.  A lot would depend on where the Flyers feel they are in their rebuilding process.  I’m not convinced the season they just had will lead to them accelerating their timeline (and that’s probably a good thing long-term).  So is making a move for Marner the right thing to do?  I don’t think it’d be the worst idea if the price was right but this seems a bit early in the process for them to make that type of move.

Another challenge here is, as you noted, the need for a contract extension.  Trading for Marner as a straight-up rental makes no sense for them so a new deal would need to be in place.  I expect his will be a record-setting contract for a winger and I think the sweet spot is going to be around eight years and $100MM if you’re going to get him to sign now.  (That matches the cap percentage that Artemi Panarin got from the Rangers on the open market by design.)  Does Marner make sense on that contract in that market at this time?  That’d be a tough sell.

There’s also the matter of finding a viable trade return.  Even if we concede your premise that the Maple Leafs want to move on from Marner, they’re not just giving him away.  This is a legitimate top-line winger so the asking price would be high.  I expect Travis Konecny would be in there as part of a package which begs the question that if GM Daniel Briere wants to pony up for a winger, why not just lock up Konecny long-term at a lesser rate and keep the other trade assets in the fold?  If I’m choosing between that or acquiring Marner, I’m going with the former.

Jaysen: Your thoughts on a Marner for Saros trade, straight up? Potentially as a sign-and-trade for both?

Or if the above proposal is a no-go, maybe Marner to Chicago or to Utah? And yes, let’s pretend that Marner waives…

Finally, Toronto must make changes to the roster. I’m interested in what would be your most mind-blowing, no way, they did what scenario.

Thank you.

Starting with your trade proposal, I like it for Nashville, assuming it’s a double sign-and-trade.  Yaroslav Askarov is their goalie of the future and if they can get a legitimate top-line winger for a starting goalie, that’s a whole lot better of a return than most starters fetch.

I’m less enthusiastic from Toronto’s point of view, however.  Juuse Saros will be entering his age-30 season when his next deal starts and has had the heaviest workload in terms of games played for the last three years.  That’s a bit concerning when you’re going to hand him a deal comparable to Connor Hellebuyck’s $8.5MM per season.  Yes, he’d certainly represent an upgrade but that’s a lot of offense to sacrifice to get it and a big amount to give up to keep him around.  My Plan A would be to aim a tier lower for a goalie upgrade where it wouldn’t take Marner going the other way even if you wind up moving Marner in a separate move later on.

As for Chicago and Utah being possible landing spots, assuming he waives his trade protection, they’re interesting ideas.  I have the same concern for the Blackhawks as I do for Philadelphia in that it might be early but if they think he’s the running mate for Connor Bedard, then I’d say it’s justifiable even if it is early.  Finding a win-now package going Toronto’s way would be tough, however.  Utah, meanwhile, should be exiting its rebuild and likely will be looking for a talent upgrade.  They have several quality young players they could couple with a win-now player (Nick Schmaltz stands out as an option) that could make for a compelling offer.

When I first saw the last part of this question, my initial thought was if Utah won the lottery, they dealt the first-overall pick for Auston Matthews, sending Matthews to the former Arizona team just after they left his hometown state.  But that’s not happening and San Jose certainly isn’t making that move with where they are.

But let’s stick with the premise.  If I’m picking the ‘no way’ type of move, you have to go big so I’d say it’s moving Matthews while making the decision to pivot to using William Nylander full-time down the middle.  That would lessen the need to get a win-now center coming the other way as they’d have him and John Tavares as their one-two options for next season.  As part of the return, the Leafs would get a young center with top-six potential that ideally would slide into that role the following year (or soon after if Tavares is re-signed at a lower rate).  But the key part of the package would be a legitimate number one defenseman.

If I were to ask who is the least likely of their core forwards to be moved, I think it’d be Matthews.  But in this pie-in-the-sky scenario, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander all refuse to waive their trade protection, resulting in them pivoting to Matthews and using him to fill a key need now, add a piece for the future, and bank on Nylander adapting to and thriving in the number one role.  That’d be a shocker to me.

Breakaway: I heard that Patrik Laine is selling his place in Columbus. He could be buying a new place but is most likely looking for a trade. Who do you think would be interested, what would the trade package look like and would Columbus need to retain some salary?

Notwithstanding the report about selling his house, it makes sense for both sides to have at least some interest in a change of scenery, assuming he’s cleared to return from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program.  Columbus hasn’t got much bang for their buck on his contract and as a result, Laine appears to be heading toward a sizable pay cut if he repeats the performance of the last two years.  In situations like this, a move makes a lot of sense for both sides…in theory, at least.

Here’s the problem for Columbus.  Laine’s trade value is probably at an all-time low right now.  Yes, there’s a longer-term track record of some success but he has 28 goals in the past two years combined, spanning just 73 games due to injuries and his entrance to the Assistance Program.  He also has a cap hit of $8.7MM and is owed $9.1MM in actual money for each of the two remaining years on his contract.  He also controls his destiny to a point with a ten-team no-trade list.

There are three options for them to consider, none of which are particularly ideal.  They can give him away for next to nothing simply to clear up the cap space and save on salary.  They can retain half the contract and receive a potentially halfway-decent return, maybe a reasonable draft pick (I’m thinking a second-rounder as I type this) and a middle-six forward.  Or, they can try to find another pricey short-term contract that isn’t going well for a team and try to make a swap with the rest of the package being determined by the difference in caliber of the player.  This last one is more theoretical as I don’t see a great fit at first glance.

If the Blue Jackets decide to just cut bait, Chicago makes a lot of sense; it would be a move just like the Hall trade from last summer.  Here’s a top-six player with a bit of upside on paper and a legitimate shooter to work with Bedard.  If things go well, he’s the type of player I could see them extending.  But again, like Hall, the return would be negligible; they’d have to have a plan in place to utilize the cost savings.

If they want to retain money and make more of a hockey trade, Seattle stands out at first glance.  GM Ron Francis might prefer the shorter-term option over a free agent acquisition and if Laine is healthy, he’d be an intriguing fit in a Kraken lineup that needs more firepower.  To make the money work, someone like Brian Dumoulin could go the other way with the draft pick or equivalent prospect.  I also like Utah’s fit here.  They have money to spend and at 26, Laine is a young enough veteran to fit in with their group.  The matching money part isn’t as easy but probably isn’t needed; a deal based on draft and prospect capital should work for them and we know they have plenty of both.

Whoever Columbus hires as GM will have options when it comes to trading Laine if they decide to go that route.  But whichever way they go, the return will pale in comparison to what they gave up to get him in the first place.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some discussion about the playoffs, what New Jersey’s big-game hunting could look like in the coming weeks, and much more.  With all the questions submitted, we’ll break it into three columns between now and next weekend so if yours doesn’t appear here, check back in one of those pieces.

schwa: Few questions here:

What was the biggest surprise to you in the first round?
What’s your favorite matchup for the second?
What potential matchup excites you most for CFs / SCF?

There weren’t a lot of surprises for me in the first round but Winnipeg flaming out would be the biggest.  While I had concerns that their core group – one that has been more miss than hit in the postseason – could sustain a long run, I thought they really had a chance to get past Colorado, especially with Alexandar Georgiev struggling mightily down the stretch.  But the Avs picked them apart and made it look easy which is hard to do to a team that put up 110 points in the regular season.  While I had the Jets winning, the fact the Avalanche did isn’t the biggest surprise.  But how they did it was something I wasn’t expecting.

Going into the round, it was Colorado and Dallas and that hasn’t changed.  The Stars are one of the most balanced teams in the league but had the toughest first-round battle.  They can match the Avalanche talent-wise but are they going to wear down as this series went on with how hard the Vegas matchup was?  These are two of the top teams in the NHL but that question is going to linger for me.

For Conference Final matchups, I think Edmonton and Colorado would be intriguing just for the potential for some back-and-forth, high-octane hockey that we don’t typically see that deep into the playoffs.  In the East, it looks like the Rangers are coming out of the Metropolitan and if I’m picking for what might be the more interesting series from a watching perspective, it’d be Florida.  Then, for the Cup Final, the Avs and Rangers.  If I was predicting what was going to happen, that’s probably not where I’d go but those would be some compelling series.

Nha Trang: Will the numerous pundits who predicted that the Bruins were going to go down in the biggest first-round upset enjoy the crow they’re being served, or will they collectively pretend they never made such a prediction and hope people have forgotten?

While we didn’t publish our picks, I’ll be up front and say I had Toronto winning that series.  It wasn’t my biggest upset prediction (Nashville over Vancouver which also didn’t pan out was) but I thought the Maple Leafs would be able to score enough to get through this round and then fall to Florida again.  Frankly, it was a close enough series on paper heading in that I don’t think many would have had that as their biggest upset.

As to your question, I’m sure some will try to pretend they didn’t pick it but that’s the beauty of internet archiving; anyone who posted their picks has those picks saved somewhere.  But collectively, no, I don’t think there would have been any group effort to deny the existence of those selections.

Besides, it’s not as if the Bruins ran away with that series.  It took seven games and three attempts to clinch it with the winning goal coming in overtime.  It was a pretty tightly played series overall so if you’re hoping to see some ‘I was wrong about the Bruins’ comments, they might have to get a little deeper into the postseason and win a bit more convincingly.

Cla23: Do you see Sean Monahan signing long-term with the Jets?

Do you see coach Bowness sign an extension or will he choose to retire and spend his time with his beautiful wife? After the scary year they had on a personal/health level.

If he retires, is it Scott Arniel’s time to be head coach?

When it comes to Monahan, a lot of it is going to revolve around what he’s looking for.  Is he looking to go to a contender?  Is he looking to maximize money?  Will the term of the contract be the top priority?  If he wants a longer-term deal, I think Winnipeg would have a very good chance at keeping him.  Monahan had a strong start to the year with Montreal and fit in quite well following the trade.  He fits on that roster as it’s currently constructed and Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff might be more inclined to offer up a longer-term agreement (despite his injury history) knowing it isn’t always easy attracting talent to Winnipeg.  If Monahan gets the term and at least close to the money he’s looking for, I could see him sticking around.

That said, if he wants to go try to play for a contender and is willing to take another short-term deal at a lesser rate to make that happen, then that probably pushes Winnipeg out of things.  We’ll see what his top priority will be for his next contract soon enough.

Obviously, we now know the answer to the Bowness question as he announced his retirement soon after this question was posed.  That didn’t come as much of a surprise to me for the reasons you noted in the question; this was the logical and expected outcome.

As for Arniel, the question I ask myself is this – is he getting any attention for the other vacancies around the league?  While teams don’t exactly divulge this information, it doesn’t seem like it at first glance.  So if Arniel isn’t garnering head coaching attention elsewhere, should he really be up for the top job with the Jets?  I think he’s a safe short-term pick and might be the favorite to land the role but all else being equal, he wouldn’t be my first choice, especially for a team that’s built to try to win now.  I’d be looking for a veteran who might have a shorter shelf life but a proven track record of getting quick results.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Devils said they are going “big-game hunting” this offseason.
Let’s apply this to both the coach and 1A goalie.
Who do they get? Realistically.

Is there a big-game type of coach out there?  Of the coaches that are currently available, is there a true headliner?  In terms of experience and success, it’s probably Joel Quenneville who may or may not be eligible to coach again.  Todd McLellan and Gerard Gallant qualify more as retreads at this point than big-name guys.  Craig Berube would be next but I could see him landing in Toronto.

If I was picking their next coach, I’d swing for upside.  As a result, I’d go right off the board for the coach (when it comes to who has been linked for the position) and pick Jay Leach as their new bench boss.  He’s paid his dues as an assistant and head coach in the minors and now three years as an assistant in Seattle.  He finished up his playing career in New Jersey’s organization as well so there’s a bit of familiarity with the market which helps.  In terms of ‘upside’ for a coach, he’d be near the top of the list so if they take a big swing, maybe it’s for upside over experience.  Having said that, you asked who I think they’ll get, not who I’d pick so for who I think they get, I’ll go with Jay Woodcroft, someone who might still have a perception as a coach with a bit of upside given that he’s still early on in his coaching career.

As for the goalie situation, I think they wind up with Jacob Markstrom.  It sounded like some of the money-related hurdles had been cleared closer to the deadline so if they rekindle talks at that point, they should be able to get something done.  Calgary’s asking price will probably have to come down given the other netminders that many expect to be available and that will help bridge the gap that existed when talks broke down in March.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nashville’s goaltending situation, ranking the NHL’s potential expansion sites, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check in last weekend’s mailbag.

PyramidHeadcrab: With the Sharks having now cleared nearly all of their large (and arguably, overpriced) contracts off the book, what’s the next step? What actions lead to greener pastures?

The next step is patience.  While it feels like San Jose has been rebuilding for a while, they’re still in the relative infancy of it when it comes to accumulating assets and future core pieces.  They have a few in place headlined by Will Smith but there’s still some work to do on that front.  Landing their goalie of the future will also need to happen.

Basically, they need another couple of years like this before slowly starting to build back up as their core youngsters get integrated into the lineup and become comfortable enough to take on bigger roles.  As that happens, then they supplement with quality veterans and, ideally, impact ones over time.  In other words, follow the model that Arizona is doing which is a long-winded rebuild but one that should eventually prove to be fruitful.

I assume you were hoping for something more concrete of an action, however.  Here’s what I’d recommend.

San Jose needs to be the clearinghouse for teams to offload pricey short-term deals.  They can’t retain any salary until 2025-26 as their three slots are all tied up so they can’t pick up picks that way.  But they can add draft choices by taking on some contracts.  It’s not as if they don’t want or need to spend either; they have nearly $39MM in cap space for next year, per CapFriendly, and their RFA class won’t eat up a huge chunk of that amount.  Rather than shopping in free agency to get to the cap floor, why not take on a contract or two (or three) and add some more assets that way?  I’m not saying that will expedite things but if it helps land them another quality prospect or two, it’d be well worth doing.

GBear: Does Trotz trade either Saros or Askarov this offseason, and if so, which of the two?

I’m going to answer these out of order.  If one moves, I think it’s Juuse Saros.  I say that knowing that Nashville was believed to be open to move Yaroslav Askarov to move up at the trade a year ago but it’s a different situation now than it was then.

Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year, $59.5MM extension with Winnipeg just gave Saros a legitimate benchmark to shoot for in his next negotiations.  Should Nashville be willing to commit that type of contract to Saros two years from now?  I’d say no, especially since they’re not exactly short-term contenders.  This time a year ago, I think the team could have been aiming for an extension in the $7MM range based on how the goalie market had played out.  But the Hellebuyck one really changed the math on that which I think then changes the outcome of who goes.

As to the question of when a move happens, in a perfect world, those two are the tandem to start the season, giving the Preds some insurance and Askarov a quality veteran to work with.  The problem is getting full value for a legitimate number one goaltender in-season is something that probably just isn’t going to happen.  Few teams have a need at that time and usually, some that would couldn’t afford Saros’ $5MM price tag.

Accordingly, I guess it’s going to need to happen in the offseason, likely leading up to the draft where some of the bigger moves get made.  That would then give GM Barry Trotz time to find a veteran replacement to work with Askarov, either via trade or in free agency although it’s not a particularly strong UFA class for netminders.

Cla23: What are the chances of the Jets signing Monahan and Toffoli to extensions?  What’s going to happen to Perfetti? Trade bait maybe?

I would say that the Jets have a reasonable chance of signing Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli to new deals.  If I had to pick one of the two as to who was more likely to sign, I’d go with Toffoli.  He was certainly open to re-signing in New Jersey and it came down to term and money; the two sides were just too far apart.  If GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is willing to meet that asking price (which was speculated to be around the contract that Alex Killorn got last summer, four years and $25MM), then I don’t think Toffoli would have any issue eschewing a chance at testing the market, especially with the Jets being a team that is firmly in win-now mode.

Monahan’s a bit of a trickier case.  The long injury history makes him a real wild card.  I’m sure Monahan would like a long-term deal that set him up for the rest of his prime years but with that injury history, do the Jets want to give him that?  Perhaps more importantly, does Monahan think he can get it?  If so, he’ll probably go to market.  But if he figures his best shot is a medium-term agreement, then I think it’s right in Winnipeg’s wheelhouse to get a deal done.

I don’t get the sense that Cheveldayoff will be looking at Cole Perfetti as trade bait this offseason.  Yes, he was a healthy scratch recently but he still should be part of their longer-term plans.  He’s having a quieter year than expected but Perfetti is still just 22.  Now being deployed on the fourth line, he’s not exactly in a spot where he could be maximizing his trade value either.  Perfetti will almost certainly wind up with a short-term bridge contract in his first trip through restricted free agency so they can easily afford to give him another year and see how things go before taking a longer look at assessing his long-term fit with the franchise.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What does the offseason look like for the Pens? Clearly, Kyle Dubas wants to change this roster makeup and get younger.

Is it possible we actually see one of Crosby, Letang, Malkin, or Karlsson moved in the offseason? They have most of the roster locked up for next year so I imagine trades are how they are going to have to address this roster primarily.

It definitely feels like there’s a goal of getting the Penguins to be a younger group.  And, barring an improbable turnaround that propels them into a playoff spot, that should be the course of action to take.  That said, it’s a concept that’s a lot easier said than done.

Let’s look at the four veterans you listed.  I don’t think Kris Letang or Evgeni Malkin would entertain the possibility of leaving and waiving their no-move clauses.  Erik Karlsson tried his best to pour cold water on the idea of him moving on although I think he’d consider it in the right situation.  So maybe it’s him.  But otherwise, Sidney Crosby might be the logical candidate.  He, too, has a no-move clause but has suggested he’d want to do what’s in the best interest of the franchise.  He’d certainly bring back the best return so if it comes to that and he’s amenable, it could be Crosby who moves on to help jumpstart the rebuild if they’ve decided the time is right to do that.

Having said that, I don’t think Plan A is moving any one of those.  Instead, it’s more work around the edges of the roster.  Reilly Smith will be on an expiring deal next season so there should be a viable trade market for him.  I expect they’ll try to do something with Rickard Rakell in a player-player swap of underachievers.  Marcus Pettersson could be in play on an expiring deal as well.  Getting some younger pieces back will accomplish that same objective while giving their core yet another opportunity to try to get back to the postseason.  It’s a fine line to balance but I suspect Dubas will be encouraged to attempt to pull this off.

I’m not convinced it’ll just be trades, however.  If the cap goes up to $87.5MM as expected, they’ll have a little under $13MM to work with, per CapFriendly.  As you noted, a lot of spots are filled so there is room for them to add a piece or two on the open market.  If they aim for the younger options (27, 28, maybe 29 years old), they can make the team a bit younger while still potentially upgrading it.  I don’t think the teardown to really cycle to a younger core is coming just yet but the average age will be a bit younger on opening night next season.  All in all, I think it’ll be a busy summer for Pittsburgh but not quite at least year’s activity level.

Black Ace57: How would you rank the rumored expansion cities from most likely to least likely? Also, why is Cincy even in consideration when Columbus already has to contend with the Penguins over building a fan base? Can Ohio really support two teams like that?

There are believed to be five cities that have reached out to the NHL about potential expansion based on comments from NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman last month.  Those five, with my rankings, are Salt Lake City, Houston, Atlanta, Omaha, and Cincinnati.

With Salt Lake City, it feels like a matter of when, not if, a franchise is there.  About the only way it doesn’t happen through expansion is if the Coyotes wind up there.  (Frankly, that’s a semi-realistic outcome.)  It seems safe to say they’ll have a team soon enough.

Houston is the other one where it feels like a case of when, not if.  They already have an arena and a potential owner in place.  It’s also a major media market and as we’ve seen with the NHL’s attempts to keep the Coyotes in a bigger media market in Arizona, they’re going to try hard to stay in (or get to) the big markets.

Atlanta would be next.  Yes, it has failed before but by the time a team was to come, basically an entire generation would have gone by.  It’s a sizable market with at least a bit of a core base from the Thrashers days.  I’m not overly confident that they’d have long-term success but with it being a bigger market as well, that will help their cause.

The other two I’m a bit skeptical about.  Omaha is at least a new market but I’m not sure that alone is enough to get the NHL’s attention.  And I share the same concern with Cincinnati.  It’s not that they’re under consideration though, they’ve just submitted a letter of interest.  But I don’t see that one happening either.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the quiet deadline for the Red Wings, a look at the offseason head coaching market, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gowings2008: Why has Yzerman stood pat in terms of trades and call-ups? Follow up, do you think Yzerman sees the team’s window as Seider and Raymond’s primes and is using Larkin’s prime to give the younger prospects time to mature?

I was surprised to see Detroit largely stand pat at the trade deadline.  I didn’t have them making a big splash but with the cap space they have, I thought they’d get in on the cheaper buys.  The fact there were some low-cost additions for teams that were simply willing to take on the full freight of the contract only made me more surprised as that was the type of move for them to make.

It came out after the deadline that Yzerman was hesitant to move their top picks and prospects.  I completely agree with that decision.  But flipping a late-round pick for an upgrade up front was something they could have done.  From a recall perspective, teams are capped at four non-emergency recalls from here to the end of the season.  They’ve already used three (Jonatan Berggren after being papered down while Austin Czarnik and Simon Edvinsson were converted to regular recalls once emergency conditions on their promotions ended).  They can’t do much more on that front.

I think Yzerman sees this team as being a couple of years away from contention which lines up with your follow-up question.  I suspect he’s hoping Dylan Larkin is still in his prime at that time but the hope is that their prospects should be starting to become key contributors at that time.  Those players will be on their entry-level deals, giving them ample cap space to take a big swing on the open market to upgrade as well.

rule78.1: What do the Red Wings do with the following UFA/RFA forwards this coming offseason now that weaknesses with them have been exposed?

Kane
Raymond
Perron
Veleno

I fully expect them to take a run at re-signing Patrick Kane.  39 points in 39 games is quite impressive and frankly, better than I was expecting.  There is going to be some risk here, however, with the track record of players coming back from his surgery not being the strongest.  He was willing to take a one-year deal this time but that shouldn’t be the case in the summer.  Anything over two years might make Yzerman hesitant.  I think Perron is in a similar situation.  At the right price point and term (again, probably a maximum of two years), I think they’d be interested in re-signing him.  But right now, I think he’s likelier to move on with the team turning to the open market to replace him.

As for the RFAs, it’s a bit easier to forecast.  Raymond is getting signed, it’s only a matter of bridge or long-term.  I think Moritz Seider gets the long-term deal while Raymond gets a two-year bridge around Perron’s current price point of $4.75MM.   Joe Veleno didn’t have much leverage last summer which is why he settled for just $825K.  He hasn’t shown enough for a long-term contract just yet but another one-year agreement feels likely for him.  With arbitration rights, he could more than double that AAV.  He has been a bit underwhelming for a first-round pick but there’s still room for him in Detroit’s long-term core.

Unclemike1526: I hate to keep harping on the Hawks’ goaltending but they have to do something next year, right? Now that Mrazek is here for two more years and that’s cool, can we count on him to have another injury-free year? I think we’ve all seen that Soderblom isn’t any kind of answer. Is Commesso going to be ready next year? Gajan is the future but at least two years away. Basse might not even sign here. They need to get some kind of bridge guy to the young guys and the future. I mean if Mrazek goes down next year without that guy they might as well phone in the games. A decent vet on a one-year deal who can hold down the fort just in case. Right? Thanks as always.

Do they have to do something?  Probably not.  Mrazek is there and if they’re not ready to pull the plug on Arvid Soderblom, they could very well run with those two next season.  They could then look to a veteran third-stringer to pair with Drew Commesso in the minors but that squeezes out Jaxson Stauber.  If they don’t want to have Soderblom (or Stauber) in the backup role next year, then Soderblom pairs with Commesso and yes, then a veteran on a one-year deal makes a whole lot of sense.  Frankly, a two-year deal would be more than defensible given Mrazek’s injury history; expecting Mrazek to be healthy would be risky.

Speaking of Commesso, I think you need to adjust your expectations for NHL readiness.  Over the years, I’ve read plenty of interviews with team executives who say they’d like a young goalie to have between 100 and 150 AHL games before moving up; there’s a reason they typically are promoted a lot slower than skaters do.  Commesso is currently at 30 games where he has been decent but not elite.  I don’t think he’ll be ready next season and unless he’s flat-out dominating the league for an extended stretch next year, I don’t think he’ll be ready for 2025-26 either.  That isn’t to say they couldn’t give him a few starts here and there when injuries strike on the NHL tandem but in terms of being a regular, he has a long way to go.

I’ll quickly comment on Adam Gajan as well who you have as at least two years away.  I’d add several years to that timeline.  He’s not having a great final season in the USHL which doesn’t help but most goalies play at least three years in college (like Commesso did).  Goalies basically never make the jump from the NCAA to the NHL as, again, teams want lots of AHL action before promoting them full-time.  Accordingly, I’d peg Gajan as five years away from being an NHL regular, possibly closer to six.  There’s reason for optimism for the future in goal but patience will be required.

Gmm8811: There are currently four interim coaches behind the benches. In my opinion, none of them will be hired next season as the full-time bench boss. Odds of Quenneville being reinstated? Thoughts on new hires? Recycle former coaches or new blood coming aboard?

First, let’s list the four interim coaches – Jim Hiller (Los Angeles), Travis Green (New Jersey), Jacques Martin (Ottawa), and Drew Bannister (St. Louis).  We know for sure that Martin won’t be back and I’d be surprised if Hiller was.  I think there’s a chance that Green sticks around if the Devils do well down the stretch and sneak into that final playoff spot.  As for Bannister, I think he will stay on in the full-time role.  The Blues aren’t going to be contenders over the next few years so a developmental coach like Bannister might be the right fit.  They’ve played well enough since he took over that I could see him getting a three-year deal.

I expect someone will take a real run at Joel Quenneville this offseason.  By then, he’ll have been out of the game for nearly three years now.  Will that be long enough for him to be reinstated?  I wouldn’t call it a lock but if I had to handicap it, maybe 80/20 that he is.

As for the vacancies, it’ll be the usual mixture of some first-time hires and others getting a second (or third) opportunity.  For first-time hires, Jon Gruden and Jay Leach I think will be strong candidates.  Gruden has been speculatively linked to Ottawa’s opening for a while now and Leach had some interest last year.  For the recycled options as you termed it, I wouldn’t be shocked if Craig Berube lands another opportunity.  Dean Evason likely will get some inquiries as well and I wonder about Jay Woodcroft.  I know the fact Edmonton took off after they let him go doesn’t help but he helped turn things around when he took over and is still a young coach.  The chance to get a newer blood type of coach with some NHL experience could be appealing to some teams so I think he’ll have some interviews as well.

Schwa: Any predictions on where the top college free agents end up and who has the best chance of contributing early on? Is there a different format or process in this free agency than that of the summer FA? Thanks!

In terms of predicting where they end up, it’s a giant dart throw.  This isn’t a situation where some teams have more cap space than others which would be a difference-maker in discussions.  All teams are capped at offering entry-level deals so there will be little to no difference between them.  For some players, it’ll be about playing close to home.  For others, they’ll be targeting a team willing to burn a year of the contract now.  Others will look at depth charts and try to find a team with thin depth to give them a better chance of being recalled.  Meanwhile, some others will look for teams with better track records of prospect development.  With each player having a different priority, it’s really hard to forecast who the top contenders will be.

As for who has the best chance of contributing early, I think defenseman Dylan Anhorn could be a candidate to burn a year right away and see a handful of games down the stretch.  Winger Collin Graf will be highly sought after and should start his entry-level pact right away.  Note that these players – or any undrafted college free agent signing – will only be eligible to play until the playoffs.

There isn’t necessarily a different process to college free agency (teams can speak to agents/family advisors to work out a contract) but how it plays out is a bit different.  Unlike July 1st, not all players will be looking to sign right away as once they sign, they can’t play anymore in college.  Accordingly, players will wait until their campaign comes to an end.  For some, that has already happened while for others, that might not occur until closer to mid-April.  As a result, the flow of players is more gradual instead of the typical free-for-all we see on July 1st.

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In our final pre-deadline mailbag, topics include the upcoming trade deadline, Washington’s offensive struggles this season, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two editions focusing on the Central Division and the Eastern Conference.

Emoney123: Can Briere make a move that balances the playoff drive and rebuilding goals?

Anyone else besides Laughton, Walker, and Seeler likely or could be traded?

Save the draft picks and prospects and look forward to making a splash in the offseason with a signing such as RFA Elias Pettersson?

Such an approach is doable in theory but is often hard to thread the needle on.  To do it, they need to sell high on their rentals to get the future assets and then take on some high-priced players for a low cost (late-round pick or a lower-end unsigned prospect) that hopefully keeps them afloat for the final spot in the Metropolitan Division.  How many teams will be looking to dump pricey expiring deals for just the value of getting the remaining money off the books?  I’m sure there will be some players available but enough to offset the loss of their others who will be more impactful?  I’m less sure about that one.

Beyond Scott Laughton, Sean Walker, and Nick Seeler, I don’t see too many more trade options.  Someone might want Marc Staal for a late-round pick with the experience he has.  If they’re still open to moving Morgan Frost, maybe the right deal comes around there.  I’m not as sold on his potential availability as I was earlier in the season, however.  If they make a move for a goalie, I could see Felix Sandstrom being part of a return going the other way so I suppose he’s in the mix to move as well.

While Pettersson has clearly now signed, I want to address the general idea of the question.  If you wanted the Flyers to make an RFA signing of that level of significance, you’re talking about giving up four unprotected first-round picks for the right to pay someone a contract that will be well above market value.  That’s not justifiable for pretty much any team at that level of a contract and certainly not for a team like the Flyers with where they are in their rebuild, a process that is still closer to the beginning than the end.  This is still a longer-term process that they’re in so it’s not the right time for them to be moving picks and prospects for established pieces.

Schwa: Set of Deadline questions:

1) What teams do you expect to make a splash for bigger names versus teams who will focus on role players?

2) Who is the biggest name you expect to move?

3) Who is the biggest rumored name you suspect will stay put?

As always, thanks for your input!

1) I could see Vegas making a splash.  They’re certainly no stranger to swinging big and with Mark Stone out for the rest of the regular season (and quite possibly longer), they now have the LTIR flexibility to make an impact of some significance.  Florida and Colorado also come to mind as teams aiming high.  The Panthers very quietly have ample regular cap space although they’re lacking top picks to trade.  Colorado, meanwhile, doesn’t have the cap room but if they’re able to move out Ryan Johansen, I could see them making a big move as well.

At the other end of the spectrum, I could see Detroit shopping there.  Here’s a team that has done well this season but is still not near the level that they need to be to have a deep playoff run.  There’s value in giving their youngsters some playoff experience though so I could see them using their cap space to add.  I also have Los Angeles here, not because they only want to do something small but because that’s about all they can do; with Viktor Arvidsson and Adrian Kempe expected back by the end of the season, they don’t have longer-term LTIR flexibility which means they’re pretty much money in, money out.

2) Two names come to mind, neither of which are particularly surprising.  Since Noah Hanifin doesn’t appear to be interested in signing an extension with the Flames, they’re in a spot where they need to move him.  I expect he’ll be the top blueliner off the board.  I’m not of the belief that it’s going to be a big trade deadline with a bunch of notable names moved; it’ll be quieter than this year.  So up front, Jake Guentzel is the biggest one I think gets moved.  It certainly feels like the expectation around him has shifted from a maybe on the trade front to probable with Pittsburgh realizing that even if he stays, they’re aiming for a likely first-round exit.  If they can’t re-sign him (and it stands to reason that if they were close, we’d be hearing about it), then he should be moved.

3) We’ve seen plenty of speculation surrounding Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom to the point where he has been featured prominently on some ‘trade bait’ boards.  I’m not as bullish as they are on the idea of moving him right now.  The Flames more or less have a one-team market for his services, New Jersey.  While I acknowledge the Devils might be desperate for an impactful addition, how much can Calgary elicit from a one-team bidding war?  In the summer, the Devils could still very well be looking for a goalie and perhaps some others too.  If GM Craig Conroy thinks he can get a better deal then compared to now (and I suspect he will think that), then Markstrom likely stays put, at least for a few more months.

Dayvisferreras: Any chance the Caps change head coaches for next season? I can’t tell if it’s the roster underachieving on offense or Carbery’s coaching system.

I suppose it’s possible that GM Brian MacLellan feels a coaching change is needed but I wouldn’t be expecting it to happen.  This is a coach who was well-known for getting lots of his groups offensively and while yes, the Capitals are struggling considerably on that front, I don’t think a whole lot can be pinned on him.

For me, this is more of a roster composition issue.  They have plenty of high-priced talent but a lot of them are in the downswing of their careers.  Going into the season, their top three centers were someone coming off major hip surgery, a veteran who had made it known he wanted to be traded, and one who was non-tendered in 2022.  With due respect to those players who are all NHL talents, centers are play-drivers and going into this season with some big question marks in those spots is risky.  That’s the fault of the GM, not the coach.  Meanwhile, on the wing, it’s a pretty old group as well.  Eventually, some fall-off was reasonably expected.

On the back end, how much firepower do they have?  John Carlson isn’t a top-end point producer as he was before but he’s still above-average.  Rasmus Sandin has some upside offensively but is still developing.  That’s about it in terms of offensive ability; most of their other options are more defensive types.  It’s hard to get much going in transition when you don’t necessarily have the defense that can kickstart that or some consistent options down the middle to drive that attack.

With their aging roster, they need an influx of speed and creativity.  If they can get that, I think you’ll see a better offensive performance from the Capitals moving forward with Carbery still at the helm.

Sunshine swede: Any chance that Florida choose to trade Reinhart at the deadline if they get a good package in return and feel they can’t afford to extend him? Or Montour/Forsling?

From a long-term asset perspective, the idea of getting value for any of Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour, or Gustav Forsling over losing them for nothing but the vacated cap space makes sense on paper.  However, it would be shocking to see any of them moved over the next few days.

First, at this point, I don’t think the Panthers are at the point where they know they can’t bring back any of the players under any circumstances.  Can they keep all three?  That seems iffy but which one can’t they keep?  That’s far from being determined.  If they put pen to paper on long-term extensions with two of the three, then the idea of moving the other becomes a little more plausible as you’d be reasonably certain that you wouldn’t be able to keep the third one.

But even having said that, Florida’s a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.  Can they justify taking a key player away from their group and weakening their chances in the name of asset management?  That’s a tough sell to make.  If they were a bubble team, even in the spot their state counterpart in Tampa Bay is, such a move is defensible.  But when you’re battling for the top spot in the league and have eyes on playing into June, GM Bill Zito will be solely focused on adding to his core group, not hedging his bets about free agency in July.

RipperMagoo: To keep the game moving, what do you think of icing and offside resulting in loss of possession by the offending team? The defending team then gets the puck behind their net and the offending team has to clear the offensive zone.

This feels like a creative solution to a problem that I’m not sure many would necessarily agree exists.  I don’t see too many complaints about pace of play or game lengths going wildly beyond the planned television block.  I also think there are a lot of coaches who wouldn’t be fond of this rule as on icings, they’d lose the advantages of line matching against a tired group and choosing what side to take the draw on.  We already see a good chunk of something like this on delayed offside calls and an increase in that isn’t necessarily the end of the world but if the defending team has to take the puck behind the net first, it might actually slow things down as they’ll want to regroup, maybe get a line change in, etc.

If you’re looking to shave a few minutes off the average game length, why not just bring back the old hurry-up faceoff rule?  Instituted in 2002, teams had eight seconds to make a change after a whistle and then five seconds to line up for the draw before the puck was dropped.  When actually followed, the amount of dead time between whistles went down while we even had the odd calamitous draw where one team wasn’t even at the dot when the puck was dropped.  Of course, it wasn’t enforced too strictly and quietly went away.  But even then, I could see broadcasters taking issue with that as it would reduce the opportunities for replays and between-whistle advertisements.

Maybe it’s just me but I find games are fairly fast-paced as it is with fairly frequent multi-minute stretches without a whistle.  A period from start to finish generally doesn’t take much more than 40 minutes to complete and often comes in quite lower than that.  Points for creativity but I can’t see this gaining a lot of traction.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

After focusing on the Central Division last weekend, we turn our focus to the Eastern Conference in this edition of the PHR Mailbag, looking at some trade ideas and what a few teams might do in the next few days.  If your question doesn’t appear here or in last weekend’s piece, we’ll have one more mailbag running soon so watch for it in there.

Zoe G: Unfortunately, Ryan Graves didn’t have the standout season everyone was hoping for in Pittsburgh. Any chance he will go back to the NJ Devils?

This is one of those never-say-never questions but let’s just say I’d be shocked if Graves went back to New Jersey, at least with how things look today.

Let’s look at their cap situation on the back end.  At the moment, they have over $23MM tied into their current back end, including Dougie Hamilton who is on LTIR but will be back next season.  That’s already in the top half of the league.  Adding Graves and his $4.5MM to the books puts them just shy of the top five in spending.  Is that the most efficient use of their resources when they know that Luke Hughes isn’t too far away from a pricey new contract?  At that point, they might be approaching the league lead for spending on the back end.

There’s also the fact that Graves has five years left on his contract.  From Pittsburgh’s perspective, that largely deflates his value given his struggles so are they willing to part with one of their key offseason acquisitions for a return that would almost certainly be well below his perceived value a year ago?  I don’t see the Penguins wanting to do that and really anyone (not just New Jersey) wanting to take a swing on Graves with the struggles he’s having.  He needs to show that this year was just an aberration and not a sign of things to come before a trade becomes a little more realistic.

azcm2511: Thoughts on a Linus Ullmark for Dawson Mercer deal? It would benefit both teams, and it is possible that Ullmark would waive his trade restriction for a short move down the road. This move would benefit both teams and NJ can certainly handle Ullmark’s contract.

This is the type of trade proposal where I don’t think either side would immediately say no and hang up the phone.  I mean that as a compliment at a time when a lot of fan proposals are ultimately skewed too heavily in favor of one team to the point where they can’t seriously be considered.  Having said that, I think this is a trade that both sides would eventually pass on.

From New Jersey’s perspective, Mercer is an important part of their long-term plans.  I know he’s having a bit of a down year but he’s a season removed from 27 goals and 56 points; that’s a true top-six forward.  He also has four years of club control left.  Is it the right move to make to give up four years of control on a top-six forward for Ullmark who only has one year remaining?  That one gives me pause.

If I’m putting my Devils GM hat on, I’d also question how much of Ullmark’s success is system-based.  When he was in Buffalo, he was hot and cold; basically, he was a similar goalie to the ones they have now, ones that are good when they’re on and struggle mightily when they’re not.  I’m not saying Ullmark will go back to that Buffalo form but he might not be the Boston version with the Devils either.  If I have any hesitation about Ullmark being a top-end goalie in New Jersey’s system, trading a controllable young piece for him may not be the best approach.

From Boston’s perspective, it’s a bit more of a coin flip but this is what it comes down to for me.  Part of the Bruins’ success is derived from having two above-average and rested goalies on any given night, giving them the goaltending advantage way more often than not.  Take Ullmark out of the equation and it’s all resting on Jeremy Swayman, a player with about a year and a half worth of NHL games under his belt.  Is he ready to be a full-time number one and an every-game goalie in the playoffs?  If they’re not 100% confident the answer is yes, then I think they’d eventually lean to a no answer.  I don’t think they’re quite at a 100% confidence level for this season.

Granted, this swap would give them a young building block up front on a roster that doesn’t have a lot of those.  It also would give them $4MM or so in cap space to use down the stretch so if they had a deal to get a backup they trust in place and something to use the rest of that money on, then they might be a yes on this idea.  But since New Jersey probably isn’t, I don’t think this is a trade we’ll see in the coming days before it gets to the point where Ullmark is approached about waiving.

SkidRowe: Is there any way the Bruins can acquire Scott Laughton and would it be a good idea?

I’m going to answer these out of order.  Would it be a good idea to add Laughton?  I think it would.  He’s not a true top-six player in terms of offensive production but his defensive game makes him a high-end third option for a lot of teams.  Boston’s center depth isn’t the best and could certainly stand to be augmented.  Plus, a $3MM price tag for two years after this one is below market value and should be one that they can afford longer-term on the books.

That said, I don’t see how they could bring him in.  With the center market being thinned out, GM Daniel Briere can put a high asking price for Laughton’s services.  With a positive-value contract, it goes even higher.  At this point, I think the offer starts with a first-round pick plus some other assets.  The Bruins are already down a first rounder from last year’s Tyler Bertuzzi trade and they don’t have a second-round selection until 2026.  They also have a prospect pool that’s quite shallow thanks to several consecutive years of going for it.  Accordingly, are they the team that is going to be able to put together a package strong enough to get him?  I’m skeptical they’ll be able to do so.

gowings2008: Do you think the Red Wings use the deadline to add assets while also staying in the race? I’ve seen rumors of Perron being dealt to Edmonton which would allow Berggren to step in. A lateral move if you ask me, lineup-wise, but could earn the Red Wings some decent assets. They also have a surplus on defense and in net to deal from that wouldn’t necessarily hurt their playoff chances this year. What could some of these moves look like if they were to happen?

To answer the first part of your question, I don’t see them being too much of a buyer and a seller.  Detroit is sitting pretty comfortably in a playoff spot right now and moving away anything of consequence from its roster would be risky.

If someone wants to take James Reimer, sure.  That would yield a late-round draft pick and clear up a logjam.  But even on defense, I can’t see them moving one without getting one in return.  If they can get someone who’s a better fit, great.  Otherwise, unless they perceive value strictly from clearing someone like Olli Maatta or Justin Holl’s deal, it makes more sense to keep them.  If someone wants Klim Kostin with the hopes that they can get the version from a year ago, fine, make the move which again, wouldn’t yield much.  Otherwise, stick with (or add to) what you’ve got.  Moving David Perron feels like an unnecessary step back unless there’s a big swing coming and I don’t think there’s a big swing coming.

The Red Wings are in a nice spot at the moment.  They basically have a full set of draft picks to work with, a fairly deep prospect pool as a result of the recent selections they’ve made, and more cap space than any playoff-bound team.  If GM Steve Yzerman wants to play it conservatively, just use the cap room to take on an expiring contract or two to shore up the depth without giving up anything too valuable.  There will be several of those deals out there.  That can still be spun as buying and showing confidence in the group that you have while also realizing that this probably isn’t their year to truly be a contender.  I don’t expect too much from Detroit over the next few days to be honest but I suspect what they do will skew mostly toward the buying side.

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There were plenty of Central Division questions for the mailbag so we’ll give that division the focus here.  The rest of the questions will be split into two more segments to run between now and next weekend.

Gmm8811: Thoughts on Doug Armstrong being a buyer or seller before the trade deadline? I don’t think he really has anything to offer that would be of interest to other teams. Scandella, Vrana, and Kapanen could probably be had for a minimal return. I’m also not opposed to Perunovich or Saad being moved. Any type of minor league assets or reserve list players would be acceptable. I don’t think the Blues will make the playoffs this year, so maybe a few tweaks to increase the depth might be useful for next year.

St. Louis is right in the think of the Wild Card race and unless they lose every game between now and the deadline, they’ll probably be right in the race on deadline day.  Having said that, this is not a team that anyone is going to call a contender so going big on adding doesn’t make sense.  And while they might want to sell, they don’t have much when it comes to rental players to move.

Marco Scandella might get a late-round pick with max retention.  Kasperi Kapanen might as well since he can kill penalties which gives him some fourth-line utility in the playoffs.  I’m not sure there’s a market for Jakub Vrana though.  One rental you didn’t mention was Sammy Blais.  I know he’s having a rough year but he’s a fourth liner who can hold his own at five-on-five and provide a lot of physicality.  Teams will be looking to add that and at $1MM, he’s on a contract most teams can afford.  Of the pending UFAs, he might have the most value.  I don’t think the return for Scott Perunovich would be high enough to justify moving him so I think he stays put.

Brandon Saad might be a tough sell with two more years left at $4.5MM.  He’s not on a bad contract but that’s a tough one for teams to fit in and St. Louis isn’t going to want to retain on him.  Unless it’s a player-for-player move, I suspect he stays put.  Pavel Buchnevich will be the big fish if Armstrong decides to sell and aim for missing the playoffs next year.  At $5.8MM, he’s pricey but he’s the type of impact top-six addition that is in short supply and high demand.

Money will be tight for St. Louis once Justin Faulk comes off LTIR so they’re in a spot where if they want to add, they also need to subtract.  It wouldn’t shock me if they moved Scandella with retention for a pick and then flipped that pick or one close to it elsewhere to maintain their depth so that if they do make the playoffs, they’ll have some options.

WilfPaiement: Marc-Andre Fleury was clobbered again on Tuesday night against Winnipeg and yet we keep hearing that a few likely playoff teams are showing interest. My question is who? And why? Fleury is toast and he won’t make any team better in the playoffs!!!!

I don’t think teams are necessarily showing interest in Fleury as someone they’d want to use a whole lot in the postseason.  But here’s a player who has several long playoff games under his belt (with three Stanley Cups), has plenty of postseason playing experience, and is known for being good in the room.  If I’m looking to add a piece that can either be an upgrade on my current backup or someone who can handle some extra games down the stretch and be an off-ice contributor as well, Fleury makes some sense.

Is that a particularly exciting profile of a player?  Not really.  Would Minnesota get a lot for him?  Probably not.  But if a team has a bit of money left or a need to try to do something between the pipes but doesn’t want to pay a high price, there’s a fit with Fleury.  Colorado makes some sense if they’re just looking for a stopgap backup upgrade but some work would need to be done to make the money work.

However, would Fleury want to go somewhere to be the designated bench door opener for the postseason?  There’s a lot of speculation that if that’s the role that a contender is envisioning for him, he might just opt to remain with his family in Minnesota and play out the season; it’s not as if they’re out of the playoff hunt by any stretch.  Teams know they’re not getting the Fleury of a decade ago but there’s a small set of circumstances where he might be the right fit if he’s willing to accept that role.  At this point, it doesn’t seem as if that will be the case.

wsendall: Any chance Arizona would listen to offers on Clayton Keller? He has a full no-trade that kicks in next year and Arizona still seems like they’re several years away and has tons of organizational uncertainty. He’s already asked some questions about the team’s direction and the possibility of having a frustrated star player in a year or two with a full no-trade wouldn’t be ideal. It would take a king’s ransom, but his value may never be higher prior to his no-trade kicking in.

I don’t think the Coyotes are at a point where they can unilaterally not listen to offers for anyone but I doubt GM Bill Armstrong has any inclination about dealing Keller away.  At 25, he’s the right age to be a ‘veteran’ in this rebuild and at $7.15MM through 2027-28, he’s at a pretty good price point for someone who’s near a point per game.  You’re absolutely correct that it would need to be a king’s ransom for it to even be considered but those types of deals are usually easier to make in the summer than at this point of the season.

Keller may justifiably have some questions about the state of this long-term rebuild.  However, I think the worst of it is over and it might very well be this offseason where the switch flips and Armstrong gets aggressive using his draft capital to try to add some core pieces, similar to the Sean Durzi acquisition last summer.  If that happens and they’re in the thick of the Wild Card race next season – not an unrealistic goal to set given where they are – then I expect some of that frustration might dissipate as he sees the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.  I expect Keller sticks around for the long haul and certainly through the next two weeks.

DevilShark: What do you think Saros would cost? Both trade value and his next contract. Which teams can feasibly afford both?

Goalies are so hard to figure out on the trade value front.  I’d like to think Nashville could get a first-round pick and a quality young player for Saros since he has another year left at a team-friendly $5MM.  They probably would have to take back a salary or two as well which could theoretically then be flipped if need be.  That’s a lot for a netminder especially relative to some of the past deals for goalies but Saros is a top-end one so the return should be high.

Extension-wise, I’d have to think he’d look at Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year, $59.5MM extension as a target.  Granted, he doesn’t have quite the accolades that Hellebuyck does but he’s also a little younger so there is a bit less risk when you look at it that way.  I don’t think he gets quite to an $8.5MM AAV but it could check in close to that unless next season resembles this one numbers-wise.  In that scenario, the next deal would start with a seven.

As for who could afford both, that’s a tough one.  I think New Jersey could although they’d need to move out Vitek Vanecek to make the money work for next year.  Buffalo can afford both but if they’re confident that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi can be a winning tandem down the road, they don’t necessarily have the need to make a move like this.  If Detroit isn’t sold on Sebastian Cossa’s upside, they’d be an under-the-radar team that could afford to make that type of trade and they have the cap space that they could carry Ville Husso as a very expensive backup for a year.

I’d like to put Ottawa on this list as they’ve been trying everything they can to put together a quality goalie tandem short of actually acquiring a proven netminder.  In my mind, Saros could be a real difference-maker for them and they certainly have the prospect capital (or even some younger roster players) to make a move.  But they can’t make the money work this season unless they move out Joonas Korpisalo and with his contract and performance, that’s not likely happening.  Basically, there’s a reason the Devils have been the speculative fit for Saros as they might be the only realistic team that could add him now and have the ability to extend him later.

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