PHR Mailbag

This edition of the PHR Mailbag largely focuses on the trade deadline which is now just over two months away.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

met man: Brian, do you think the Rangers should upgrade the backup goalie situation?

When I first saw this question, my immediate thought was yes, they should do something to upgrade the spot.  Jaroslav Halak is not having a particularly strong season which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering how poorly things went for him last season with Vancouver.  It stands to reason that if Igor Shesterkin gets injured, they’re in trouble.  In that sense, it does make sense to try to upgrade.

However, my second thought changed my tune somewhat.  Yes, they’ll be in trouble if Shesterkin goes down but that will be the case with whatever backup they have whether it’s Halak or one of the second-stringers that might move in the next couple of months.  Knowing that, is a second-string upgrade the most efficient use of their cap space?  Or should they focus on players that are going to play every night that improve their scoring or defense?

After bouncing those two thoughts around, I’ve come to some sort of hedge answer.  If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’d flip a mid-round pick to Columbus for Joonas Korpisalo at the deadline.  At that point, there isn’t much more than $300K left on his contract which shouldn’t be too difficult to fit in.  If they wanted to bank a little extra space between now and the deadline, they could paper Ben Harpur back and forth to help on that front.

Korpisalo’s numbers aren’t great but they’re better than Halak’s and he’s the type of goalie that might be worth getting an early look at to see if he’d fit as a longer-term backup beyond this season.  He does have some playoff experience and did quite well so as long as adding him doesn’t prevent them from making a bigger splash, it’d be worthwhile doing.  However, it’s worth noting that Halak can’t be buried in the minors which would offset most of Korpisalo’s cost as he has a full no-move clause so that would need to be factored into their spending plans.

cheftay: Who do you see Vancouver trading Horvat to and what a potential trade might look like? Do you see them possibly trading Miller too before his NTC kicks in this summer? If you were Vancouver’s GM, what might you do with this team going into the trade deadline and in the offseason? Would you buy out OEL?

In a recent mailbag, I had Vancouver finding a way to re-sign Bo Horvat and I don’t want to fully bail on that just yet.  I think a factor in their contract offers has been their cap situation but if things improve on that end (such as saving some money on a Brock Boeser trade, for example), they would be able to up their offer and that might be enough to bridge the gap.  I’m certainly not as confident in that happening as I was a month ago but I think it could happen.

Between that and hoping for as much certainty on next year’s cap as soon as possible, I think a Horvat trade, if it comes to that, comes close to the trade deadline.  It’s easier for other teams to make the money work in late February/early March than it is in January.  As for where, I like Colorado.  They’re a team that has a long-term need that might be willing to do an extension at the same time as the trade.  If Vancouver retains 50% and there’s an extension in place, I could see part of the offer being a first-round pick and young center Alex Newhook.

As for J.T. Miller, I don’t see him moving short of him turning around and asking for a trade.  Trading players before a long-term extension kicks in rarely happens and I don’t think the offers now would be better than what they were being offered pre-extension.  He should still be part of their long-term plans.

There’s not a whole lot Vancouver can really do to dramatically change up the core beyond moving Horvat if an extension can’t be reached.  They’d be selling low on Boeser and Conor Garland while Tyler Myers isn’t going anywhere yet (when his signing bonus is paid though, that’s another story).  I’d be selling high on Luke Schenn who may not be the best defenseman to move but at a $900K cap hit, he’s cheap enough to create a good bidding war.  If they can’t extend Andrei Kuzmenko, I’d be moving him as well.  I’d be trying to move Tanner Pearson as well but I don’t think there’d be much traction there.

Then there’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  With four years left at $7.26MM (excluding Arizona’s portion), that contract isn’t getting any better.  But with two of those buyout years (25/26 and 26/27) costing $4.767MM each, that’s a bit too much of a single-year cap charge to eat right now.  Plus, carrying eight years of dead cap money is hardly ideal.  In the short term, I’m not convinced they can get a better defender for less money than the new guy’s cap hit plus Ekman-Larsson’s cap charge and if they can’t do that, why buy him out?  Ekman-Larsson isn’t a top defender anymore but he’s still more than serviceable.  They don’t have a particularly good or deep back end right now so for now, he stays.

Grocery stick: Right now the Devils seem to be on track for reaching the playoffs. That should make them buyers at the trade deadline. What are they doing with Holtz and Nemec who are their most high-end prospects in my book? Will the Devils flip their top prospects for success this season? They have some valuable depth players on expiring contracts so there won’t be a ‘next season’ for this Devils team. Are they going all in?

Generally speaking, I don’t like the idea of teams going all in after being a non-playoff team.  It’s rare for a team to go from being a cellar dweller to a contender in one fell swoop so why push all the chips in so quickly?  On the other hand, I’m not convinced that the Devils are a sustainable contender as things stand so with things falling into place this season, is it better to take your shot?

The next six weeks or so will go a long way in determining which route they go.  Right now, things are looking good even with their recent struggles but if they continue to slip, the willingness to go all in likely dissipates somewhat.  I don’t think Simon Nemec will be in play but I do think Alexander Holtz could be in the right situation.  That right situation would be getting a young (25 or under) core piece that has at least four years of team control remaining.

As things stand, I think they’re softer buyers.  Andreas Johnsson’s expiring contract won’t carry value but he’s a good enough player that he can be used as a contract matcher which would give them $2.275MM (his cap charge while in the minors) in full-season space to work with.  That’s enough to add a depth piece or two (depending on if the other team retains) and send a message that management believes in this group without risking much of anything in terms of longer-term assets and cap flexibility.

aka.nda: What’s going on with the Sens and Blue Jackets? They gonna be buyers or sellers? Who are the targets? Possibly same question in regard to the Rangers and Flames as well.

Ottawa: They’re a bit of a Wild Card for a couple of reasons.  Can they get back into the Wild Card race?  I think they can.  But with an estate basically running the team right now, what do they have for budget space?  Playoffs were the expectation after a busy summer of upgrades so it’s hard to see them sell.  Besides, other than Cam Talbot, I’m not sure there’s a pending UFA that carries a lot of trade value for them.  I think they’re light buyers in terms of shoring up their depth (there are plenty of possible targets on that front) but I’m intrigued to see if they have something bigger going that requires Nikita Zaitsev‘s contract being moved out.

Blue Jackets: The playoffs aren’t an option for them so they’re sellers but this will be a softer sell.  In other words, move the pending UFAs but not the core guys.  Vladislav Gavrikov will fetch a good return and as long as they’re willing to retain half of Gustav Nyquist’s deal, I think they can get a mid-round pick for him plus whatever they get for Korpisalo.  I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Jarmo Kekalainen prefers already-drafted prospects over draft picks as those players better fit the timeline of their young core.

Rangers: We’ve covered the goalie situation already but let’s look at the skaters.  They’ll be buyers barring them falling well out of the playoff race.  I had Vladimir Tarasenko going there in last weekend’s mailbag and that’s the side of the market I expect them to be on.  If there’s a key forward (winger or center), they’ll be inquiring.  Defensively, I think they’ll look to upgrade on their sixth defender; Ben Harpur is a capable depth player but do they really want him in the lineup in the playoffs?  Who they target there depends on the forward they get.

Flames: Right now, they are narrowly holding onto a Wild Card spot.  As long as they stay in that range, I think they’re buyers on the rental front.  With over $80MM in commitments for next season already per CapFriendly, they can’t really afford someone on a multi-year deal.  Depending on what happens with Oliver Kylington, they might want to add a defensive upgrade but otherwise, a top-six winger will be the target.  Having said that, I could see them being a team that sells a bit as well in an effort to try to free up some cap space.  At first glance, Andrew Mangiapane might be someone whose contract they might want to try to get out of.  Maybe the buying move is a player-player swap, not a player-for-futures one that we typically see.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what it might cost Boston to add a key rental center, the worst contracts in the NHL by position, Arizona’s trade deadline situation, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s mailbag.

Gbear: Easy one here: The Preds offense from their forward group is dreadful. Do you see Poile making any moves to add scoring help or is it the same old story in Nashville?

I think it’s the same old story for the Predators.  They have a veteran-laden team that isn’t good enough to truly be a contender nor are they bad enough to have justification for blowing it all up.  Quite frankly, even if they wanted to blow it up, I don’t think they could as moving money in this cap environment is very tough.  There are some bloated contracts that don’t have a lot of trade value at the moment.

There was some risk in Nashville’s offseason moves in that it suggested they felt last year’s offensive production was repeatable.  I doubt many others saw it the same way.  I won’t criticize GM David Poile for the moves he did make (getting Ryan McDonagh for next to nothing and signing Nino Niederreiter) because it didn’t really cost them anything in assets.  All in all, they were relatively low-risk even with McDonagh’s contract.

But those moves cemented that their goal seemed to be squeaking into the playoffs and see what happens from there.  And, let’s face it, you don’t have to look very far to find a team that squeaked into the postseason and made it all the way to the Cup Final.  It’s not necessarily a viable strategy but it works enough that some teams want to try it with the odd one going on a run.

So, with that in mind, I don’t see many big changes coming one way or the other.  They’re six points out but have games in hand on almost everyone ahead of them.  Knowing where they are, any improvements are likely to be low-risk, low-cost incremental ones; if they didn’t commit to big upgrades last summer, they’re not doing it now.  On the seller side, they’re not exactly loaded with expiring deals that other teams are going to want in early March.  I suspect they’ll wait things out for a while and then take a tiny step whether it’s as a buyer or seller.  Nothing too exciting, I know, but I don’t see any big splash on the horizon for them.

The Duke: All-knowing, -seeing and -prognosticating Snow Globe (hey, it’s Christmastime), please soothsay the following: 1. Long-term, UPL, Portillo, or Levi? 2. Where does Tarasenko land – and in this season or next? 3. Brighter scoring future: Ruzicka, Holtz, or Kent Johnson? BONUS Q: What season does Askarov arrive in Smashville? Merry Christmas – and Happy New Year!

I don’t know why but I feel a bit more shaken up than usual following this question…

1) Assuming you mean who the long-term starter in Buffalo is going to be, let’s go with Devon Levi if I have to pick one of those three.  I think Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen can be a capable NHL goalie but he might be more of a platoon option than a true starter.  Erik Portillo is no guarantee to sign with the Sabres so it’s hard to pick him for this question either.  Levi might be more of a platoon option himself (if he and Luukkonen form a serviceable tandem, that could work out great for Buffalo) but at this point, I’d say he has the best long-term upside for the Sabres so he gets the nod by default.

2) The unstated question here is will the Blues want to sell?  If they don’t, I don’t think Tarasenko moves this season.  That call won’t be made for at least six more weeks but if they keep playing at this level, I’ll say they will sell and thus, he will move this season.  I know the Rangers seem to be the expected landing spot for Patrick Kane but if they want to do a move that doesn’t necessarily require double retention, this might be the one.  Plus, for some reason, I can hear Sam Rosen calling “Vladimir Tarasenko – It’s a Power Play Goal!” in my head and it sounds fitting.  Let’s go with Tarasenko to the Rangers at the deadline.

3) I’ll take Alexander Holtz.  This year has been a complete write-off and I’m not at all a fan of how the Devils have handled him.  Scorers need to score and sitting a top prospect for numerous games in between playing him on the fourth line isn’t helping anyone.  However, he’s the one player on this list who still has top-line upside in my books (Johnson is more of a second liner and Ruzicka is still trying to become a full-fledged regular) so that gives him the nod.

Bonus) 2024-25.  That’s Juuse Saros’ final year under contract and the Predators will want to know if Yaroslav Askarov is ready to be a starter so quickly, whether he’s more of a backup at that point, or if he’s an NHL goalie altogether.  Right now, he needs as many games as possible so I don’t think they’ll want him up (barring injuries) this season or next.

@dajc: What do you think it’s going to take to get Jonathan Toews into a Bruin jersey?

When I first saw this question, I questioned if strengthening a fairly strong spot would be Boston’s best course of action.  However, if Toews was anchoring a two-way checking line in the playoffs, that would give them a huge boost.  Making it work, however, will be a bit tricky.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way first.  They will need a third team to retain so that they’re only taking on 25% of Toews’ $10.5MM AAV.  If we look back at the few examples of those types of deals, you’re probably looking at a third-rounder, maybe a second if there were a few teams with similar offers on the table.  What works in Boston’s favor here is that Toews only has a base salary of $2.9MM so the actual cash outlay for the third team that they’re trying to incentivize to retain would be fairly minimal but they will have to part with a decent draft pick to get their cap charge down to $2.625MM.

As for what they’d need to send to Chicago, it’s likely to involve a first-round pick.  Toews isn’t the top center he once was but he still has 11 goals this season, is simply elite at the faceoff dot (65.6%), and can play in all situations.  Moving someone like Craig Smith solves the cap issue; they’d actually free up some cap space even by throwing him in.  I think there’s a secondary element that needs to go in there as well, a decent prospect.  Marc McLaughlin comes to mind as a near NHL-ready center that they might want to target.  Boston might not want to move him but they’ll need to incentivize Chicago to take Smith’s contract.

The good news for the Bruins here is that the rental center market is deeper than usual so Toews shouldn’t command the top return.  That should be Bo Horvat as things stand barring a late change of heart in Vancouver (which could very well happen).  But Boston won’t get Toews for cheap either but a package of a first-rounder, Smith, McLaughlin, and a third-rounder (to a third team) might be enough, particularly if that’s where Toews indicates he wants to go.  Like Claude Giroux last season with the Flyers, his preferred destination(s) will largely dictate which Chicago can or can’t get for him.

Nha Trang: Okay, I actually do have a question, I fibbed: who would you tab as the worst regular players in the league in terms of value to salary at forward, defense and goal? (Not counting LTIR types — obviously Montreal’s got the short end of the stick with Price there.)

First, thanks for the kind words that preceded your question from the callout for questions.

Forward: Tyler Seguin – Dallas committed franchise player money to Seguin, a player who hasn’t averaged over a point per game since 2015-16.  He’s still a capable player but he is more of a second liner at this point of his career and by the time this contract ends, he’ll probably be lower on the depth chart.  He has four years left after this one at $9.85MM and as Dallas looks to try to retain and enhance its core, this is the type of contract that will make doing that considerably more difficult.

Defense: Marc-Edouard Vlasic – His deal certainly isn’t the priciest (he’s tied for 24th among AAVs for blueliners) but it has been a few years since he has been the true shutdown defender he was in his prime.  Frankly, it has been a few years since he has been much more than a replacement-level rearguard.  He turns 36 in March and still has three years left at $7MM per season.  That’s not good when his play has gone downhill in a hurry.  There are other more expensive veterans on bad deals, sure, but those players are least still providing some on-ice value.  I don’t think Vlasic will be anytime soon.

Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky – He’s the second-highest-paid goalie in NHL history behind Carey Price.  For that, the Panthers were expecting to get high-end goaltending, the type that you can rely on to carry you to big things.  Well, this season, Bobrovsky is below-average in GAA and SV%.  If he was making $2MM, that would be one thing.  But he’s not making $2MM.  He’s making $10MM this season and for three years after that.  Spencer Knight is close to taking away the number one job and when that happens, Florida will have an untradeable backup that makes more money than what the majority of the league is spending on their goalie tandems.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what might be next for Washington, Lindy Ruff’s future in New Jersey, some summer moves that teams might want a mulligan on, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column.

2012orioles: Will the Capitals do anything with their LTIR money?

KRB: Only 22.5% of teams outside of a playoff position at American Thanksgiving make the playoffs. Washington may be outside looking in at that cut-off date, Peter Laviolette’s contract expires at the end of this season, and only Carlson is signed of their D corps, beyond this year. Are the Caps sellers at the deadline? Too early to speculate?

As we did with the Los Angeles questions last week, let’s combine the Washington ones.

I fully expect Washington will use their LTIR money, it just might not be the way you think.  For starters, they’ve already used some on claiming Nicolas Aube-Kubel from Toronto.  The rest is going to depend on Nicklas Backstrom.  If he’s able to return later this season (he skated today which is certainly promising), they’re going to need what’s left of Connor Brown’s LTIR money to try to get cap-compliant to be able to activate him.  (They’ll have to get a bit creative to free up the rest of the room from there.)  But if Backstrom can’t return in-season, then yes, they’ll be able to go out and add another piece.  LTIR space doesn’t bank like regular cap space does so in theory, they could do something sooner than later but knowing the uncertainty with Backstrom, I suspect they’ll wait for a little while until they have a firmer understanding of when he might be able to come back.

I have a hard time thinking Washington is going to be sellers unless things really go off the rails and they have no choice but to move some expirings at the deadline.  And even in that scenario, it’d be a one-year sell with an eye on getting back into the mix in 2023-24.

As bad as the early season has gone, they’re just three points out of a playoff spot heading into today’s games.  Tom Wilson is going to be back before too long and that will be a significant boost to an injury-depleted forward group so there’s a bit of room for optimism on the horizon.

There was speculation last month that Laviolette would be the next coach to sign an extension.  Perhaps the sluggish start gives GM Brian MacLellan pause but I don’t think Laviolette’s contract situation is going to play much of a role in their decision-making.  They’re built to be a win-now team and I expect they’ll operate that way as long as they can which means that if they can add (depending on Backstrom’s situation), they’ll do that.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: I know it’s early yet to talk trades, but what are the odds the Flyers try to move Risto and that terrible contract? He’s currently on the outs with Torts (but then on a daily basis someone always is) but I feel that even though he brings the physicality Torts wants, the defensive lapses are just too much to overcome. And, who would be more likely to move…Risto or JVR? I lean towards JVR, even though he has more value to the Flyers than Risto at this point. Between these contracts and the career-threatening injuries, the immediate future seems bleak…hoping some of the younger kids in the AHL develop soon….

To say there has been some angst during Rasmus Ristolainen’s tenure with the Flyers would be an understatement.  The price to acquire him seemed high and then the decision to not trade him at the trade deadline didn’t go over well.  Neither did the five-year, $25.5MM extension he signed.  And now that he is seemingly in John Tortorella’s doghouse, things are somehow getting worse.

Having said all that, I’d say the odds of them trying to move Ristolainen right now range from slim to nil.  It’s clear that GM Chuck Fletcher is a big believer in the 28-year-old and a rough seven-week patch probably isn’t going to change that.  There’s also the matter of the contract.  The trade market is minimal at this point to begin with but I find it hard to believe that there will be teams lining up to trade value for Ristolainen when his value is by far the lowest it has ever been.  And if the options are either to give up assets to get out of the contract or keep him and hope things work out, I suspect they’ll opt for the latter.

So, to answer the second half of your question, James van Riemsdyk is the likelier of the two to move.  Closer to the trade deadline, there should be some interest in him as a middle-six scoring upgrade as long as the Flyers are willing to retain 50% of the rest of the contract (which runs through the end of this season).  It might not be a significant return as there will be other wingers like him available (probably on cheaper deals) but they should be able to get a small something for him.

Grocery stick: Coach Ruff has been seen as a stopgap solution between now and the moment the Devils are ready for contention. The Devils had a strong start to the season and – perhaps even more importantly – have some impressing offensive and possession metrics. I guess that offensive uptick was exactly what they hoped for when they signed Ruff. Did this start to the season improve Ruff’s chances of staying at the helm long-term? Or is he basically just accelerating time until his successor steps in?

New Jersey’s strong start has only gotten better since this question was posed as they enter play today on an 11-game winning streak which has them first in the Metropolitan Division.  But I still don’t think Ruff is viewed as the long-term coach for the Devils.

You used stopgap as the type of coach Ruff was viewed as heading into the season and I had a similar term for him as well and still do.  He turns 63 in February and while there’s no must-retire age for coaches, he’s probably not too far away from that point.  I’m not even sure this earns him an extension right away – he’s in the final year of his contract – as GM Tom Fitzgerald probably wants to see if this is sustainable before entertaining that idea.

The moment they hired Andrew Brunette, New Jersey had their coach of the future as long as someone doesn’t swoop in and hire him away before they’re ready to make that switch.  But I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they hired an offensive-minded younger coach to apprentice behind an offensive-minded older coach; it’s a natural succession plan but Brunette won’t want to be in the number two role for any extended period of time.

When Ruff was hired, I pegged him as a bridge coach, one that could get the team going offensively and aid in the development of core youngsters like Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier.  He has done that, even when the results weren’t great last year.  Perhaps this buys him a short-term extension over time but this is his third season with the team now.  I’d be surprised if he lasts three more which is probably needed for him to be considered as a long-term coach.

Vegas Moved: Is there any indication Anaheim might move Gibson? What sort of haul could they expect?

There has been speculation about John Gibson and the possibility of a trade for a few years now but I don’t really see why.  I get one side of the discussion – Anaheim is in a rebuild and Gibson might not mind going to more of a contending team.  However, the other side is where I struggle to see a fit.  With how Gibson has played lately, what contending team will want him?

Gibson has been below the NHL average in save percentage for each of the last three seasons and is once again below that mark early on this year at .893 while his 4.13 GAA is far from ideal either.  Is that the statistical profile that teams would want?  Granted, there is a possibility that he’d improve on a better team.  But to what extent?  If he gains 10 points on his save percentage, that just brings him back to where he was the last three years, below average.  If he shaved half a goal per game off, he’d still be near the bottom of the league.  At a full goal per game improvement, his GAA would improve to mediocre.

There’s also the contract to consider as he’s signed through 2026-27 at $6.4MM.  For that money and commitment, you’re not exactly getting bang for your buck anymore.  So what teams are lining up to provide anything let alone a haul for Gibson?  If anything, Anaheim would be trying to incentivize teams to take on the rest of the contract.

I have to be honest, I misread this deal a few years ago.  I thought this would be a contract that was ahead of the curve, one that was about $1MM higher than the goalie median at the time but as the cap continued to increase, goalie salaries would go up and they’d have an above-average goalie at about an average price tag.  But the cap stopped going up and Gibson stopped being an above-average goalie.  That was the worst-case scenario for the Ducks and it came true here.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the early-season struggles for multiple Western Conference teams, possible trade candidates, the Hockey Hall of Fame, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

J.H.: Could you see the Kings making a change from McLellan if their defensive, structural issues lead to a prolonged slump? The added offense is nice, but the breakdowns, turnovers, and various other miscues have cost them several games. System issues like that probably shouldn’t be happening now in year four, especially since there are actual expectations for this team after last year’s playoff appearance. Are there any other potential coaching changes you could foresee that would be surprising yet plausible like that?

bigalval: Kings have given up the most goals of any team what is wrong with them?

Let’s put the Los Angeles questions together.  First, it’s worth noting that they’ve won three straight since the first one was posted which might change things up a bit.  I don’t think McLellan’s future is overly secure as yes, there are some structural issues and if you look at his last job with Edmonton, this was around the time when they made a change.  But thanks to that three-game win streak, they’re in the top three in the Western Conference so they’re likely not leaning towards making a move.

If I was going to speculate about a coaching change, this feels like a good landing spot for Barry Trotz if he was willing to return.  He would fix up some of the defensive breakdowns with his systems although it would likely come at the expense of some scoring, an area where things have been going quite well in the early going.  That would also help solve some of the goaltending woes.

One of the concerns I had about the Kings going into this season was between the pipes.  Yes, Jonathan Quick had a bounce-back year last season but his last three years were below league average.  Accordingly, it was unrealistic to expect that his 2021-22 performance would carry over.  It hasn’t.  Calvin Petersen had a tough showing last year which was cause for concern this season and his numbers early on are worse than last season.  Going into this season with that duo and no demonstrable improvement on the back end (beyond a return to health for Drew Doughty) was risky.  Right now, it’s holding them back.

Gbear: The Preds have for the most part looked like a well below-average hockey team so far this season, how long of a rope do you think John Hynes has if this type of play continues?

I think he still has a lot of rope left.  GM David Poile is known for being patient and has made a grand total of one in-season coaching change in franchise history, one that dates back to 1998.  A slow start alone probably isn’t going to be enough of an indictment to pull the trigger quickly.

How much of their early-season struggles are based on coaching and how much of those struggles are attributable to roster composition?  Looking at their roster, there are a lot of fringe or unproven players filling out that lineup.  That’s not a good thing.

There’s also the matter of last year having some unsustainable performances.  How many think that Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen will produce at a similar rate this season and beyond?  I don’t even think Poile did as his upgrades to the roster were of the free variety, ones that didn’t push in any younger assets as a team with eyes on contending might be willing to do.  Poile’s actions this summer were that of a GM that knows his team is a bubble squad.

Right now, the Predators sit near the bottom of the West but aren’t too far out of the playoff race.  That’s slightly underachieving but probably not to the point where a coaching change is seriously being considered.

Johnny Z: Where is Bo Horvat going?
Where is Brossoit going?
Will the Sabres go after Kane?

I have a hard time thinking that Vancouver isn’t going to find a way to keep Horvat in the fold.  The market rate for centers like him is in the mid-$7MM range and if the Canucks get around there, I think they’d be able to work something out from there.  I wonder if they might be waiting to see if they get some sort of indication or an updated estimate of next year’s cap to see if they can afford to give him that extra little bit to get a contract done.  I’m not convinced he’s going anywhere unless they really fall out of the mix over the next couple of months and they decide to really shake up the core.  If that happens, ask me again closer to the trade deadline.

Laurent Brossoit made it through waivers this week which takes away my original answer of Winnipeg.  That is, unless they prefer to trade for him using David Rittich to offset some of the difference in salary; with attendance down, those little differences might matter.  Right now, I think he stays put for a little while and gets some regular reps in the minors.  If he can do that, stay healthy, and play well, then he becomes a trade candidate with either a little bit of retention or some sort of salary offset for whoever has a goalie go down with a long-term injury over the next month or so.  Unfortunately, that makes it next to impossible to predict where he’ll go since we can’t forecast who will have goalie injuries.

Patrick Kane to Buffalo has long been speculated and for obvious reasons.  But I still don’t understand the notion of trading for him.  They’re probably not making the playoffs and considering he’s a Buffalo native, I don’t think they need to try to sell themselves and the market to him; I’m pretty sure he knows what’s what already.  He should be dealt to a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and that’s not Buffalo.  Now, come July, the answer should almost certainly be yes.  As a free agent, with no cost beyond the contract, Kane would make a lot of sense for the Sabres as a veteran to help drag them from being a non-playoff team into one that should battle for at least a Wild Card spot.  But that’s a move for them to make next summer, not before then.

Gmm8811: It’s still early in the season…I usually wait till 20-23 games played to decide if a team needs to be blown up or not. With that being said, what are your thoughts on the Blues dumping players for draft picks? We’ve talked salary cap issues coming up in past conversations…the fact that Armstrong isn’t afraid to let a team favorite go…I think it was a big mistake to give Kyrou and Thomas those huge extensions. Might be time to make some significant moves. 6 mil for Binnington is ridiculous also.

I don’t think St. Louis is at that spot just yet.  First, it is still too early to make that type of core shakeup.  This is a team that has eyes on contending this season and while they’re at the bottom of the Western Conference, they’re a quick winning streak away from being back in the race.  Second, who has cap space to take on a pricey player for a draft pick?  18 teams are currently in LTIR and several of the 14 that aren’t are aiming for the bottom of the standings.  That doesn’t create much of a trade market at this point of the season.

We know that GM Doug Armstrong isn’t afraid to shake things up but there’s a different element at play now.  With those big extensions to Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas kicking in next season, that squad is likely to be weaker than this one.  In other words, this is probably the last real kick at the can for this core group.  It’s one thing to part with a core player within the context of knowing that the core is still good enough to contend for a little while longer but they can’t say that here.

Is a rough stretch to start the season enough to kickstart what could be a rebuild?  Probably not.  Don’t get me wrong, if they’re still at the bottom of the conference come midseason, then Armstrong will almost certainly be laying the foundation for trades at the deadline (as again, cap situations around the league make big trades before that point less likely).  But that’s a decision to make at the 45-game mark, not 15.

If you want some reason for optimism, the Blues’ shooting percentage suggests they’re due for some good bounces to get closer to that league average.  Jordan Binnington might not be worthy of a $6MM AAV but he’s a better goalie than he has shown so far.  A better performance from him, a bit more puck luck on the goal side, and this St. Louis team is probably at least back in the mix over the next couple of months.

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We’re now nearly a month into the 2022-23 regular season and things certainly haven’t gone as expected. The New Jersey Devils lead the Metropolitan Division while the Pittsburgh Penguins are on the league’s longest losing streak, the Vegas Golden Knights have received some of the best goaltending in the league from Logan Thompson and Adin Hill, and the Chicago Blackhawks have maintained some semblance of credibility with a 5-5-2 record despite admitting to a rebuild.

With that in mind, we’re well overdue for another edition of the PHR Mailbag.

Our preseason bag was broken into two pieces. In the first, our Brian La Rose broke down some of the specific details of professional tryouts and two-way contracts, and pointed out a few teams that seemed to be okay “running it back” instead of making significant changes in the offseason. In the second, he examined Matt Dumba‘s future with the Minnesota Wild, predicted the St. Louis Blues as a team that would underachieve this year, and suggested how quickly Matthew Beniers could find relevance after his excellent late-season showing last year.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what the Kings should be doing next, Matt Dumba’s future with Minnesota, plenty of predictions and projections, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

bigalval: The Kings look to build on their surprise season last year, A full season of Doughty and Walker should help along with the kids having a season under their belts. I know they’re against the cap but what about trading Iafallo or Peterson for some cap space and going after Jakob Chychrun? They have plenty of kids to help get it done. Your thoughts on this or any other moves they can make to get better? Good news is cap help is coming with Quick (1 year left) and Kopitar (2 years left) on their deals.

The problem with trading someone like Cal Petersen for cap space is that you then have a 36-year-old Jonathan Quick as your starter on an expiring contract.  That’s quite risky.  Many teams have wingers that they wouldn’t mind moving to free up cap space so there wouldn’t be much of a market for Alex Iafallo to the point of making it worth trading him.  Honestly, both of them are young enough that the Coyotes might be okay with taking them back in a hypothetical return for Chychrun if they had to.

Now, is this the right time to make the move that pushes in more future capital for Chychrun?  I don’t think it is.  Generally speaking, my philosophy is that those moves get made when it’s one that will make you a contender.  I don’t think Los Angeles is much more than a bubble team this season and while Chychrun would undoubtedly make them better, I don’t think he’d make them a contender, especially if they have to move Petersen as a salary offset.

What can they do to be better?  Right now, doing nothing is the right move.  They’re pretty tight to the cap right now and they need to leave themselves enough wiggle room to navigate some short-term injuries that inevitably will creep up during the year.  If they manage to stay relatively healthy, they might be able to bank enough cap space to add some depth at the trade deadline but for now, what they have is what they’re going to go with.

Johnny Z: Do you perceive the Blues being interested in Chychrun now that Scandella is out?

In last weekend’s column, I talked about St. Louis likely wanting to wait until closer to the trade deadline to spend their LTIR money with Marco Scandella out long-term.  In theory, the asking price for Chychrun should be a little cheaper in March than it is now so if he’s still in Arizona by then, I could see them kicking the tires at least.

That said, they already have $67.5MM committed for next season to just 13 players.  With the cap projected to be $83.5MM, that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room, especially when you consider that Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko have to be re-signed or replaced.  Even on a team-friendly $4.6MM for two more years after this one, is there really room for St. Louis to fit Chychrun in?

Arizona is known to be looking for future assets and young players and probably isn’t going to be interested in taking on multiple years of a salary offset.  GM Doug Armstrong will kick the tires, I’m sure, but I think a trade would be hard to make, especially since there won’t be many teams capable of taking on a salary offset to facilitate a Chychrun trade.  I’d be surprised if they wind up with him as a result.

DarkSide830: Are the Flyers cursed?

This question comes on the heels of the playing future of Ryan Ellis coming into significant question and what’s perceived to be a long-term injury to Sean Couturier who officially has been listed as out week-to-week.  For a team that has stated publicly that their intention is to get back into playoff contention, that’s not ideal so you could say that they’re cursed.

On the flip side, if you’re like me and have some skepticism about their ability to get there, this could be viewed as a blessing in disguise.  Without two of their top veterans, perhaps this could push management towards at least some sort of rebuild if things don’t go well early on.  In the long-term picture, that’s probably more beneficial for them in the long run.  It’s a different way of looking at it but this might not be all bad for Philadelphia.

Zakis: What is Matt Dumba’s future? Extension with the Wild – terms? – or a trade?

Last week, Michael Russo of The Athletic reported (subscription link) that there haven’t been any discussions on an extension yet and GM Bill Guerin’s comments intimated that they won’t be starting anytime soon.  That isn’t to say they won’t happen – both sides have expressed a desire to get something worked out – but they’re okay with letting things play out for now.

My prediction is that an extension eventually gets done.  Yes, he has seemingly been on the verge of being traded for a while now (looking back through our archives, it has been about five years of posts where his future was seemingly in question) but every time, they find a way to get it done.  To be honest, this isn’t a high-end defensive group where they could afford to lose someone that logs over 23 minutes a game on the right side of the back end.  Calen Addison is in the system but is he going to be able to step in and fill that void?  Probably not.

The other factor that works in favor of a deal getting done is that Dumba isn’t going to be in a position to command a significant raise on this next contract.  His 50-point season is the outlier with his point-per-game averages in other seasons having in the 30-35-point range.  I have a hard time thinking he can command more than Jared Spurgeon’s $7.575MM AAV; his next deal is probably coming in lower than that.  Let’s say it’s $7.5MM for simplicity.  That’s only $1.5MM more than what he’s making now and the increase to the salary cap covers two-thirds of that.  Yes, the buyout costs are a bit higher next year and Matt Boldy will have to get a bridge deal but I expect they’ll find a way to make it work to keep Dumba around.

W H Twittle: It is most probable that the Habs finish last in the East. Several teams that finished close to the bottom last year like the Sens, Devils and Sabres will increase their point totals as other teams in the East like the Panthers, Bruins, Capitals, and Bolts finish the year with fewer points.

But what about the West? How many teams will finish lower than the Habs? And which teams are most likely to significantly improve their points total? Kings, Oilers, Wild?

I think the only two that I could safely peg as being below Montreal would be Arizona and Chicago.  I could see San Jose having a rough year but the Canadiens would have to exceed my expectations for the Sharks to be below them.

As for who will significantly improve their point total, I’m not sure any of the three you named will.  Edmonton has a bit more goaltending stability so they might go up a bit but a big jump would make them a Presidents’ Trophy contender and I don’t see that happening.  Los Angeles is still a Wild Card team and I could see Minnesota taking a step back, not improving.

I’m going to go off the board a little bit and say Winnipeg.  Sure, the core is still the same but there will be a lot better of a defensive structure under Rick Bowness.  I think that will bring out the best in Connor Hellebuyck and as we’ve seen in the past, when he’s at the top of his game, the Jets can be dangerous.  Anaheim could also have a bit of a jump although perhaps not to the point of contending for a playoff spot.  Their young core will take a step forward which should get them a few more victories at least.

pawtucket: Overachievers and underachiever predictions for the WEST and EAST. Two each. Also, include one example of alliteration using a player name.

I’ve basically covered part of the West already with Winnipeg and Anaheim being teams that could take a step forward so that covers the overachiever portion.

As for underachievers, St. Louis comes to mind and not just because I can make the oddly-specific prediction that Vladimir Tarasenko tickles the twine thirty-two times.  Jordan Binnington hasn’t been great the last couple of years and with Ville Husso gone, there’s no in-house safety net.  If he plays to a .901 SV% again, they’re in some trouble, especially with Thomas Greiss not exactly inspiring much confidence behind him.  I’ll use the Wild as the other underachiever.  Not having Kevin Fiala hurts and I’m not sold on Marc-Andre Fleury being an undisputed starter at this stage of his career.  Again, like St. Louis, they’ve lost their safety net (Cam Talbot).  Filip Gustavsson could be an NHL-caliber goalie but we don’t know for certain.  If he struggles, they’ll find out the hard way.

For overachievers, it all depends on the definition.  If it’s an increase in points compared to last season, it’s Ottawa.  But I think a lot of people are expecting that so if they succeed, are they really overachieving?  Let’s leave them out as a result.  I’ll say Detroit as one team.  They’ve made some incremental upgrades just about everywhere.  That along with some younger players developing in what could be a better offensive environment under Derek Lalonde could make them more dangerous than some might think.  New Jersey would be my other team in this category.  I think Vitek Vanecek really helps.  He’s got great but they now have two goalies capable of being league average which is a good improvement.  They have some youngsters that should take a step forward and Ondrej Palat will help deepen their attack.  The Metropolitan Division is going to be really close and it wouldn’t shock me if the Devils are in the Wild Card mix.

Onto the underachievers.  Florida is an easy pick as realistically, it’d be hard for them to overachieve after the year they’ve had.  They’ll be playing a new system under Paul Maurice and their back end has taken some hits.  They’re still good enough to be a playoff team but this feels like more of a reshaping year than a contending one.  I’ll pick Washington as the other one here.  They have some injuries to contend with early on and their roster is getting old in a hurry.  Their hold on a playoff spot last year was somewhat precarious to begin with and a step back is definitely a possibility.  If that happens, they won’t have a playoff spot to hold onto.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Colorado’s recent additions, some CBA questions, going over some under-the-radar signings, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check in next weekend’s mailbag.

haubrick4: With Scandella being gone most if not all of the season, do the Blues go and trade for, go and sign, or promote from within a defenseman?

In the short term, I don’t think they look outside the organization.  Marco Scandella’s injury (which I think will keep him out for the whole regular season by the time you work in a possible conditioning stint in early April) opens up a full-time roster spot for Scott Perunovich.  In a perfect world, he’s able to log the 18 minutes per game that Scandella did and give them a bit of a lift on the offensive side of things.  If that happens, they don’t need to go get a defenseman.

The other thing that’s worth noting is that Scandella will be on LTIR and when a team is in LTIR, they’re not banking cap space.  For the sake of simplicity, let’s say St. Louis gets the full cap relief for Scandella’s contract at $3.275MM.  It’s worth $3.275MM today, next week, next month, or in March at the trade deadline.  If you’re GM Doug Armstrong, you get one shot at utilizing that cap space.  Is it better to do it now to fix a perceived problem or is it better to wait until midseason or the trade deadline when you have a better understanding of the weaknesses of your roster?  If it were me in charge, I’d be waiting to make that move.

vincent. k. mcmahon: Who is more likely to remain in St. Louis past this upcoming season between O’Reilly and Tarasenko?

I touched on Ryan O’Reilly’s situation in more detail in the last mailbag so I won’t rehash it too much here.  At this point, they can’t afford either him or Vladimir Tarasenko beyond this season.  Armstrong would need to clear some salary out for 2023-24 and beyond for signing one of these two to be viable.

Of those two, if one stays, I think it’s O’Reilly.  I don’t get the sense that Tarasenko’s trade request has really gone away but both sides know one isn’t feasible at this point.  If that is indeed the case and the request hasn’t been rescinded, he probably isn’t going to be overly amenable to re-signing.  At least, not without testing the market first.

O’Reilly, meanwhile, has indicated that he’d like to stick around and discussions on a new deal have already started although there is no perceived urgency to get something done.  I think he’ll have to accept a pay cut from the $7.5MM on his current deal to stay but as long as he’s willing to do, there’s a much better chance that it will be him in a St. Louis uniform in 2023-24 and not Tarasenko.

@iwtfwc: What are your thoughts on Evan Rodrigues joining the Avalanche? Where will he fit in? Do you think he can play 2nd line center over J.T. Compher? And what chances do you give Alex Galchenyuk to make the team?

I’m not sold on Rodrigues being a legitimate top-six player for any extended stretch.  Yes, he had a good few months last season with Pittsburgh but beyond that, he has been more of a depth player.  Waiting out the market for a stronger deal that never came didn’t turn out to be a wise move.

However, I do like the fit in Colorado.  He’ll probably split time in that second center spot with Compher but he’ll see more time on the wing.  He’ll bounce around in the middle six and put up 25-30 points which, for $2MM, isn’t a bad deal.  I thought they’d get someone a little more proven to fill that spot but with this signing, Colorado still has enough cap space that they can bank some in-season money and perhaps go for that more impactful second option closer to the trade deadline.  As far as ‘bridge’ players go, adding Rodrigues is a good move for the Avs.

As for Galchenyuk, it has been a long time since he was a legitimate top-six player for an extended stretch and even longer since he was a legitimate top-six center.  He’s not the type of player that fits well lower in the lineup.  Perhaps with Gabriel Landeskog’s injury, there’s a chance for him to earn a two-way deal at the NHL minimum and break camp with the team.  I’ll put it at 40% and while you might think that seems low, I think most PTO players have a lot lower of a chance than that of making their respective teams.

Gmm8811: When a player signs a PTO, what exactly is the club liable for? Lodging? Travel? Per diem? Medical? Are all PTOs standard across the NHL in regard to the language in the contract?

Technically speaking, the only truly defined PTO in the CBA is for a one-game emergency goaltender.  These are the players that get a one-day contract to dress as the backup but aren’t actually part of the team.  In other words, the ‘EBUG’ such as David Ayres, Thomas Hodges, and Jorge Alves (and many others).  Their contracts are form deals and are in the CBA as Exhibit 17-A.  The highlights are that they get $500 and get to keep their game-worn jersey.

I suspect you’re asking about the long list of NHL skaters that have signed PTO agreements to go to training camp with a team.  There’s no formal contract in place and it can be terminated at any time by the team or the player (if he gets an offer from elsewhere).  Article 15 of the CBA does, however, provide some guidelines for this question.  Teams are required to pay for travel to camp, and provide lodging and per diem money (which can be reduced if the team offers breakfast and/or lunch at the training camp facility).  I can’t say for certain on the medical but considering there is no contract in place, the team probably isn’t under any obligation to cover any costs associated with injuries.

wreckage: Differences between a 1-way and 2-way contract?

The only difference is salary.  A one-way contract means that the player receives the same salary no matter what level they’re playing at.  A two-way contract means that the player receives a specified lesser sum at the minor league level.  Worth noting, more and more two-way deals now have a third dollar amount, a guaranteed salary above the level of the two-way provision.  No matter what, they get that guaranteed figure with the team being responsible for topping up the AHL pay if they’re not brought up to the NHL for enough days during the regular season.  There used to be three-way contracts a few CBAs ago (with fixed amounts for NHL/AHL/ECHL salaries) as well but those aren’t permitted anymore.

I’ll also note that a common mistake is that some interpret one-way and two-way deals with waivers.  This is not the case.  Waiver eligibility is solely defined by age, NHL games played, and the number of years that the player has been on an NHL contract.  Salaries, whether they’re one-way or two-way, do not figure into the mix.

aka.nda: There have been several “big” stories this offseason that garnered a lot of attention. Do you have any hunches about any of the lower-key moves yielding more (or less) than the market value suggested?

One of the lower-key moves that I particularly liked was Washington’s signing of Dylan Strome.  He has a clear and defined role as their second center behind Evgeny Kuznetsov and while Nicklas Backstrom hopes to play this season at some point, I’ll believe it when I see it.  This is a prime opportunity for him to show that he’s a legitimate top-six option for a full season and if he does, the Capitals still have club control on him through arbitration for another year.  That’s a tidy piece of business as far as I’m concerned that will yield a pretty good outcome for the Capitals.

A little lower on the radar was Edmonton’s signing of winger Mattias Janmark.  He’s a versatile player that can play anywhere in the lineup, kill penalties, and is a safe bet to land somewhere between 20 and 30 points.  On a team that is going to have some cap challenges when it comes to being able to afford some of their better prospects on recall, Janmark is going to become a very valuable role player for them.  A shrewd addition a few days into free agency.

On the flip side, Columbus isn’t going to get a good return on the four-year, $16MM deal that they gave to Erik Gudbranson.  He’s a capable fifth defender but giving him top-four money for that long was puzzling.  Justin Schultz’s contract with Seattle (two years, $3MM AAV) also flew under the radar as one of many first-day signings in free agency but I don’t think it will work out as intended.  He struggled last season and is more of a depth player than an impact one but they’re paying him to be a secondary producer and he has scored just 16 goals over the last five seasons combined.

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Training camps open this week all around the league and preseason hockey is right around the corner. Most of the restricted free agents are signed, big extensions have been handed out, and rosters are nearly complete for most teams. Hope is all over the league as pretenders try to become contenders, rebuilding clubs see rookie breakouts, and newcomers try to make an impact in unfamiliar surroundings.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.

Last time, the mailbag was broken into two parts. The first looked at the center market over the next two years, and future dealings for Steve Yzerman, and predicted some of the RFA news that would follow. The second examined the tanking rosters, Ottawa’s interesting offseason, and how St. Louis can afford to re-sign Ryan O’Reilly.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.