PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what Seattle might do to add before the deadline, how Dallas could be an intriguing team to keep an eye on, if there’s a trade market for Anthony Mantha, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s two mailbag columns.

Grocery stick: What would the Blackhawks do with Connor Bedard? If they keep trading away everyone, is Bedard supposed to play with wingers like Mackenzie Entwistle and Boris Katchouk? Should I keep my fingers crossed anyone else wins the lottery?

This is a question I’ve wondered myself for a few possible lottery winners.  When you get a potential franchise player, the last thing a team should want to do is to waste his three cheap seasons by continuing to aim to finish at the bottom of the standings.  If Bedard pans out as many expect him to, his second contract is going to be a pricey one, probably in the double-digit AAV range.  It’s much easier to try to win when that player is capped at a $1MM base salary on an entry-level deal.

For Chicago specifically, I don’t think winning the lottery would necessarily end the rebuild and the spending would start right away to add some quality talent around him.  However, I do think it would expedite what otherwise is likely to be a multi-year process.

Next season, I wouldn’t expect much to change.  I think they’ll want to add a capable veteran or two (or perhaps re-sign a certain duo if they opt not to be dealt) to insulate Bedard a little bit but the goal will still be tanking so their current wingers would still likely be part of the lineup.  In 2024-25, Frank Nazar might be ready to turn pro after his freshman year this season was cut short due to injury and Lukas Reichel should be a full-timer by then.  They’ll also be armed with ample cap space and what should be a pretty good selling point (come play in a strong market with the next great star) to help attract some quality veterans.  That’s not enough to become an immediate contender but they might be able to get to the playoffs.  From there, 2025-26 would be their ‘go for it’ year before Bedard’s contract would start to become more of an obstacle.

aka.nda: How big do the Kraken dare to dream about their postseason?

I don’t expect GM Ron Francis to be dreaming too big here.  Part of the logic for Seattle hiring him was the slow and steady approach he has for roster building.  This is only their second year and I don’t think he feels that they’re at a spot where it’s time to flip a switch, consolidate some assets into more impact pieces, and really go for it.

There’s a big question that stands out to me that make it difficult to justify loading up too much, their goaltending.  Martin Jones isn’t a true starting goalie, Philipp Grubauer is still underachieving, and even when Chris Driedger returns from his season-long injury, he’s not a real starter either.  They’re not going to go trade for yet another goalie and it’s hard to think someone in that triumvirate is going to carry them to postseason success.  With that in mind, it’s probably not the right time to load up.

They’ve already made their depth move on the back end with the addition of Jaycob Megna from San Jose.  I could see them aiming for a third-line forward signed beyond this year with Toronto’s second-rounder being in play (a non-rental makes it easier for them to justify parting with the pick) but that’s about the extent of the buying I expect them to do.

The Duke: Oh, Supreme Soothsaying Spheroid, I humbly seek your wise fortune-telling: 1. Does Horvat somehow resurrect Barzal’s scoring? 2. Luke Hughes rumored up with Devils in early March; does he make their PP? 3. Does Tarasenko stay or go – and to where n’ for whom? 4. Same Q regarding Laine?

1) If you mean scoring in terms of goals, probably not.  Mathew Barzal just isn’t a goal scorer; he’s a playmaker.  It doesn’t matter who you put with him, he’ll hover around the mid-teens for goals; he’s just not a high-end shooter.  But what Bo Horvat should do is balance things out.  The Isles now have two capable scoring lines with some players that can be shifted around.  In the long term, that’s going to help their offense and, by extension, help Barzal’s point total.  If he’s on the wing with Horvat as he is now, that line should score more.  If Barzal’s on the second line and Horvat’s line is drawing the tighter checkers, that should make it a bit easier on Barzal.  Long story short, the trade should help Barzal’s assist total but I wouldn’t expect his goal total to change much.

2) Assuming Hughes does turn pro as expected and is in New Jersey’s lineup, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense if he wasn’t on one of their power play units.  If you’re going to put someone into the lineup straight out of college, putting that player in a position to succeed is critical.  He’s quite comfortable and productive on the man advantage at Michigan so it would make sense to play him on the second unit with the Devils.  Damon Severson is in that spot at the moment but only has four goals (none of which were on the power play) so it’s not as if that spot can’t be upgraded.

3) Well, we all know the answer to this one now as Vladimir Tarasenko is with the Rangers as the crystal ball predicted back in December.

4) There isn’t much of a reason to think Patrik Laine is going anywhere over the next few weeks.  It was a big deal for them to get Laine to give up a few UFA years on his last contract so why would they move him in the first year of that?  Yes, things haven’t gone well at all and there will be changes coming but it’s not going to be their top guys that move.  Laine (and Johnny Gaudreau) should be around for a couple more years at least.

@JasonClausen7: Are the Stars pretty much handcuffed this trade deadline?  It seems the Benn and Seguin contracts have stopped them from being able to do anything lately.  Benn’s resurgence has been great but what’s happened to Seguin?  Will he ever be better than this?

I actually think Dallas is in reasonable shape compared to some other potential buyers.  Barely having $1MM in cap room (per CapFriendly) isn’t much to work with but it’s better than quite a few teams.  On top of that, they have an expiring offset contract in Anton Khudobin who’s counting on the books at $2.208MM while he’s in the minors.  Most contenders don’t have a veteran roster player that they’d want to move out but Khudobin, who isn’t on the roster at all, is an easy exception.  Include him in a trade and all of a sudden, that ups their spending capital past the $3MM mark and if the trading team is retaining up to the maximum of 50%, now we’re talking about a $6MM player.  That gives them some options so I don’t see them being handcuffed.

As for Tyler Seguin, I don’t see a big resurgence coming.  He’s averaging 0.66 points per game this season.  If we expand that timeline back to his average since 2018-19, it’s at 0.66 points per game.  This is basically who he is now, a second liner that, if he’s healthy, should average between 50-55 points in a season.  That’s still a pretty useful player all things considered.  Don’t get me wrong, the contract is lousy and is probably one of the worst in the league.  But at the very least, he’s still a more than serviceable player.

Devil Shark: I know it’s early(ish) but… Is 2018 the biggest bust draft this millennium?

By a quick look, there are about three top-tier players out of the whole draft and a few bit players which seems incredibly weak. I’ve seen a lot of debate about the top drafts of the past 20 years… but what about the worst?

Thanks in advance.

The top-end depth of this draft is okay in Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Andrei Svechnikov, and Brady Tkachuk.  That’s not bad and all those players are still on an upward trajectory.  Perhaps there isn’t a superstar in the mix but those are some quality core players that will have long careers.  But there is definitely some fall-off after that as Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Barrett Hayton, and Filip Zadina (all top-six picks) have been depth players at best thus far.  There have been some good value picks (Noah Dobson at 11, Joel Farabee at 14, and K’Andre Miller at 22 among the first rounders) but even at that, that’s not that special compared to other seasons.

I think I’d nominate 2012 as a bigger bust of a draft than 2018.  Nail Yakupov was a bad pick at first overall.  Ryan Murray is no more than a depth defender now, he was the second pick.  Alex Galchenyuk’s in the minors after bouncing around the last few years (and is still fifth in scoring from this group).  The fourth pick, Griffin Reinhart, never scored a single NHL goal.  Now, there have been some good value picks from that class that have given it some depth (Filip Forsberg, Tomas Hertl, and Teuvo Teravainen were all picked in the middle third of the first round) and there are 21 players (and counting) with at least 500 NHL appearances.  That helps.  But 2018’s group should eventually get to that level within the next six years (where it could be better compared with 2012’s class today) and at least the first couple of picks (Dahlin and Svechnikov) are panning out to be high-end pieces.  That just can’t be said for the 2012 group.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the future of Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher, the challenges the Penguins will face if they try to rebuild, the trade deadline challenge for the Avalanche, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.  Unless you asked about Dylan Larkin.  He’ll be the focus of a bonus mailbag column tomorrow.

Gmm8811: It pains me to say this but I fear the Blues are in need of a major overhaul from top to bottom. Their fiscal situation isn’t sustainable. They need to start stockpiling draft picks. Their reserve list is ok but pretty bare of any significant talent. Tarasenko and O’Reilly could bring some nice draft picks. Parayko has become the fans whipping boy…I can see him being moved. Maybe Krug goes too. Binnington overpaid for the return the team gets from him. Defense needs to get tougher and bottom six forwards need to improve. This team is not set up for the future at all in my opinion.

I would be surprised to see anywhere this level of an overhaul coming from St. Louis in the coming weeks before the deadline.  Yes, some changes will be coming, largely because of their cap situation when $10.65MM gets added to their books with the new deals for Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas kick in and that won’t allow them to re-sign or replace both Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly.  Barring a drastic improvement over the next few weeks, the pending UFAs could be traded but I doubt we’ll see much more than moving out their rentals by March 3rd.

I do think there’s a desire for the back end to be tougher but this is an easier-said-than-done scenario.  Colton Parayko’s injury history hurts his value, as does the fact he’s signed until 2030.  There’s some concern that his contract won’t age well.  Given his importance on their current back end, I don’t think they want to sell low on him.  Torey Krug has four years left at $6.5MM as well.  Look at what happened with Shayne Gostisbehere a couple of years ago with Philadelphia having to pay to get the last two years of his deal off their books.  I don’t think that’s a route they want to take.  Jordan Binnington is in a similar situation, four years left at $6MM is a negative-value deal right now.  In the short term, creating a spot for Tyler Tucker to play regularly on the third pairing will give them a bit more physicality while I wouldn’t hold your breath about big improvements coming to the bottom six for cap reasons.

There’s a changing of the guard underway with Kyrou and Thomas becoming the new centerpieces of their forward group.  I think that change will continue but it will be gradual.  Once some of these longer-term contracts start to get shorter (think a couple of years from now) and become easier to move, that’s when I think we’ll start to see some more of the veteran core changing up.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: How surprising is it that Fletcher still with the Flyers? If he is allowed to make moves at the deadline, doesn’t that pretty well mean he stays even into next season? Not fair to a potential new GM to let Fletch make any moves now…is Briere ready to take the next step? If so, do they risk losing him to another team by sticking with Fletch now?

I’m not that surprised that Chuck Fletcher is still at the helm for Philadelphia.  This season hasn’t been pretty but injuries certainly haven’t helped things which could be a factor.  It’s also year one of a coaching change.  To me, the fact the team allowed Fletcher to give John Tortorella a four-year, $16MM contract means they still had a lot of faith in him at that time.  They’re six points out of a playoff spot despite not having Sean Couturier, Ryan Ellis, and Cam Atkinson all season long.  I don’t think there’s a big appetite internally to change things as a result.  I wouldn’t say Fletcher has a long leash but I don’t think there will be any restrictions on him at the deadline.

As for Daniel Briere, I don’t think the Flyers are at much risk in terms of losing him.  Yes, he was in the mix for Montreal’s job last season but they’re a team that places high importance on speaking French which doesn’t give them a deep pool to choose from.  Since then, I don’t think Briere has been a serious candidate for the few openings that have come up.

He’s still pretty inexperienced in the NHL in terms of management.  He has been a consultant for a year and a half and a special assistant for a year and a half.  Sure, some experience building up ECHL Maine from the ground helps but is he a little too green to take over a team?  I think other organizations think he is.  Give it a year or two, then he should come up in speculation a bit more.  Who knows, perhaps at that time, Fletcher moves up to Team President and Briere takes over as GM, something we’ve seen other organizations do?  I’m sure that’s not your favorite scenario but unless this team completely nosedives next season, I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

mhaftman7: The Flyers DESPERATELY need to go all in on a rebuild. Is Provorov to the Kings for a package including Byfield realistic? Could Hayes, JVR, Konecny, and Ristolainen all be moved?

On paper, I like the fit of your trade idea.  Ivan Provorov would certainly fill a need in Los Angeles and while his value is down, so too is Quinton Byfield’s so it’d be an interesting buy-low move on both sides assuming the other pieces are in place to make the money work (and we’d be talking about needing to match his $6.75MM contract, more or less).  Is it realistic right now?  I’m not so sure.  I think the PR element from what happened last month during Philadelphia’s Pride Night is going to come into play in trade talks.  On top of that, these types of trades are likelier to happen at the draft or in the summer than they are now.

As for the need to do a rebuild, I don’t disagree.  At best, this is a team that’s spinning its wheels.  But a healthy Couturier and Atkinson (I’ll leave Ellis out as who knows if he’ll play again) probably get this team a few more points in the standings and then they’d be right in the Wild Card battle.  I don’t see a big blow-it-up scenario happening as a result.

But let’s look at your trade options.  Kevin Hayes has too pricey of a contract to move.  Same for Rasmus Ristolainen.  At best, they’re summer swaps for other expensive deals but I expect them to stay put.  I think James van Riemsdyk goes with 50% retention for a draft pick.  Travis Konecny though, that one’s tricky.  If they intend to go for the playoffs next season, he stays.  If they actually consider taking a step back though, this is a sell-high situation for someone in the prime of his career with two years left after this on what’s looking like a team-friendly $5.5MM.  I wouldn’t put him in the likely-to-be-dealt category but in the back of my head, he’s an interesting dark horse candidate.

NYRFan 2: The Rangers NEED to get more ❤️ not prettier. Any chance they package some younger talent like Hajek, Robertson, Jones, or Blais and a pick or so for players like Jeannot (who is struggling) and Xhekaj who plays a game Jeff Gorton hates? Instead of multiple firsts and talent for a rental when I don’t think we are there yet. Need guys to hammer pucks and bodies!

Let’s look at your trade chips first.  Libor Hajek’s trade value right now is next to non-existent.  He can’t go to the minors and hasn’t played well enough to stay in the lineup which has limited him to just ten games.  He’s a throw-in piece at this point.  So is Sammy Blais who is basically salary ballast.  Matthew Robertson still has some value but he’s not a headliner in a move for an impact player.  Zachary Jones could be though.  I think his value is down a bit this year but there will be rebuilding teams that look at him and think there’s a spot on the depth chart.  Jones, a pick, and one of the throw-ins is a package that could be of some interest to fill a need in the coming weeks.

That said, I don’t think Nashville has any interest in selling low on Tanner Jeannot and that trade combo as a result would certainly be selling low.  I could see a scenario where Montreal considers moving Arber Xhekaj as they have a lot of left-side depth in their defenseman pipeline but that would be to fill another organizational need, not replacing him with another left-side defender in Jones.

Maybe it’s just me but I don’t look at New York’s back end and think that they need more toughness.  Adam Fox is a finesse player, sure, but there isn’t anyone else that I’d put in that category.  (Ryan Lindgren isn’t the most physical but he’s capable of playing a hard game.)  I think they need an 18-minute player to partner with Braden Schneider, one that can kill penalties and move up if injuries arise.  That player doesn’t really profile as the intimidator that you’re aiming for.

Offensively, I think they should be targeting someone that can score as the Rangers have a middle-of-the-pack attack.  A key top-six addition could push them closer to a top-ten offense which, coupled with Igor Shesterkin, would make them very dangerous heading into the postseason.  They could benefit from adding a heavy player in the bottom six (preferably one that could kill penalties) but you’ll need to set your sights lower than Jeannot.

koz125: I’m embarrassed to be a Penguins fan at the moment. Shouldn’t they just start the rebuild with how terrible GMRH has screwed the team over? Obviously, they’re no longer a serious contender and likely not a playoff team either.

On the surface, it’s one thing to say they should start the rebuild.  But how exactly do they do that?  Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, and Evgeni Malkin aren’t going anywhere; even if Pittsburgh wanted to move them, I think they’d invoke their no-trade protection.  That’s a sizable chunk of their veteran core right there which makes a full-scale rebuild a lot harder to do.

Could they move Jeff Petry?  Sure.  Jake Guentzel would fetch a nice return as well.  But Bryan Rust probably isn’t movable with his long-term contract and lower production.  Rickard Rakell has had a nice year but his up-and-down track record will give teams pause, especially in the current cap environment.  Jason Zucker would bring back a draft pick at the deadline as a rental so I suppose that’s something but that’s not moving the needle much.  Brian Dumoulin has had a tough year so his value isn’t great and I think if they could have moved Marcus Pettersson by now, he’d be playing somewhere else.  That doesn’t leave them much of tradable options in terms of their core (or at least higher-priced) players.

This is probably going to sound a little goofy but staying on the current path might make more sense.  If you can’t rebuild properly, why go halfway and sit in the mushy middle of non-playoff teams?  If the other veterans don’t want to move or can’t be moved, they can’t really do a full-scale rebuild.  I agree that this team isn’t a contender but they’re close enough to the playoffs to justify staying the course for now.

It’s not a great spot to be in but quite frankly, none of their options are ideal at this point – do nothing, take a step back to become a non-playoff team that’ll finish 12th in the conference, or spend to try to sneak into a Wild Card spot.  If they fall out of the race a bit more in the coming weeks (Tristan Jarry’s injury will play a role there), then sure, flip Zucker and get a future asset for someone that you’d otherwise lose for nothing.  But that’s about the only rebuilding move I can see them making over the next few weeks.

Read more

This edition of the PHR Mailbag largely focuses on the trade deadline which is now just over two months away.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

met man: Brian, do you think the Rangers should upgrade the backup goalie situation?

When I first saw this question, my immediate thought was yes, they should do something to upgrade the spot.  Jaroslav Halak is not having a particularly strong season which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering how poorly things went for him last season with Vancouver.  It stands to reason that if Igor Shesterkin gets injured, they’re in trouble.  In that sense, it does make sense to try to upgrade.

However, my second thought changed my tune somewhat.  Yes, they’ll be in trouble if Shesterkin goes down but that will be the case with whatever backup they have whether it’s Halak or one of the second-stringers that might move in the next couple of months.  Knowing that, is a second-string upgrade the most efficient use of their cap space?  Or should they focus on players that are going to play every night that improve their scoring or defense?

After bouncing those two thoughts around, I’ve come to some sort of hedge answer.  If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’d flip a mid-round pick to Columbus for Joonas Korpisalo at the deadline.  At that point, there isn’t much more than $300K left on his contract which shouldn’t be too difficult to fit in.  If they wanted to bank a little extra space between now and the deadline, they could paper Ben Harpur back and forth to help on that front.

Korpisalo’s numbers aren’t great but they’re better than Halak’s and he’s the type of goalie that might be worth getting an early look at to see if he’d fit as a longer-term backup beyond this season.  He does have some playoff experience and did quite well so as long as adding him doesn’t prevent them from making a bigger splash, it’d be worthwhile doing.  However, it’s worth noting that Halak can’t be buried in the minors which would offset most of Korpisalo’s cost as he has a full no-move clause so that would need to be factored into their spending plans.

cheftay: Who do you see Vancouver trading Horvat to and what a potential trade might look like? Do you see them possibly trading Miller too before his NTC kicks in this summer? If you were Vancouver’s GM, what might you do with this team going into the trade deadline and in the offseason? Would you buy out OEL?

In a recent mailbag, I had Vancouver finding a way to re-sign Bo Horvat and I don’t want to fully bail on that just yet.  I think a factor in their contract offers has been their cap situation but if things improve on that end (such as saving some money on a Brock Boeser trade, for example), they would be able to up their offer and that might be enough to bridge the gap.  I’m certainly not as confident in that happening as I was a month ago but I think it could happen.

Between that and hoping for as much certainty on next year’s cap as soon as possible, I think a Horvat trade, if it comes to that, comes close to the trade deadline.  It’s easier for other teams to make the money work in late February/early March than it is in January.  As for where, I like Colorado.  They’re a team that has a long-term need that might be willing to do an extension at the same time as the trade.  If Vancouver retains 50% and there’s an extension in place, I could see part of the offer being a first-round pick and young center Alex Newhook.

As for J.T. Miller, I don’t see him moving short of him turning around and asking for a trade.  Trading players before a long-term extension kicks in rarely happens and I don’t think the offers now would be better than what they were being offered pre-extension.  He should still be part of their long-term plans.

There’s not a whole lot Vancouver can really do to dramatically change up the core beyond moving Horvat if an extension can’t be reached.  They’d be selling low on Boeser and Conor Garland while Tyler Myers isn’t going anywhere yet (when his signing bonus is paid though, that’s another story).  I’d be selling high on Luke Schenn who may not be the best defenseman to move but at a $900K cap hit, he’s cheap enough to create a good bidding war.  If they can’t extend Andrei Kuzmenko, I’d be moving him as well.  I’d be trying to move Tanner Pearson as well but I don’t think there’d be much traction there.

Then there’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  With four years left at $7.26MM (excluding Arizona’s portion), that contract isn’t getting any better.  But with two of those buyout years (25/26 and 26/27) costing $4.767MM each, that’s a bit too much of a single-year cap charge to eat right now.  Plus, carrying eight years of dead cap money is hardly ideal.  In the short term, I’m not convinced they can get a better defender for less money than the new guy’s cap hit plus Ekman-Larsson’s cap charge and if they can’t do that, why buy him out?  Ekman-Larsson isn’t a top defender anymore but he’s still more than serviceable.  They don’t have a particularly good or deep back end right now so for now, he stays.

Grocery stick: Right now the Devils seem to be on track for reaching the playoffs. That should make them buyers at the trade deadline. What are they doing with Holtz and Nemec who are their most high-end prospects in my book? Will the Devils flip their top prospects for success this season? They have some valuable depth players on expiring contracts so there won’t be a ‘next season’ for this Devils team. Are they going all in?

Generally speaking, I don’t like the idea of teams going all in after being a non-playoff team.  It’s rare for a team to go from being a cellar dweller to a contender in one fell swoop so why push all the chips in so quickly?  On the other hand, I’m not convinced that the Devils are a sustainable contender as things stand so with things falling into place this season, is it better to take your shot?

The next six weeks or so will go a long way in determining which route they go.  Right now, things are looking good even with their recent struggles but if they continue to slip, the willingness to go all in likely dissipates somewhat.  I don’t think Simon Nemec will be in play but I do think Alexander Holtz could be in the right situation.  That right situation would be getting a young (25 or under) core piece that has at least four years of team control remaining.

As things stand, I think they’re softer buyers.  Andreas Johnsson’s expiring contract won’t carry value but he’s a good enough player that he can be used as a contract matcher which would give them $2.275MM (his cap charge while in the minors) in full-season space to work with.  That’s enough to add a depth piece or two (depending on if the other team retains) and send a message that management believes in this group without risking much of anything in terms of longer-term assets and cap flexibility.

aka.nda: What’s going on with the Sens and Blue Jackets? They gonna be buyers or sellers? Who are the targets? Possibly same question in regard to the Rangers and Flames as well.

Ottawa: They’re a bit of a Wild Card for a couple of reasons.  Can they get back into the Wild Card race?  I think they can.  But with an estate basically running the team right now, what do they have for budget space?  Playoffs were the expectation after a busy summer of upgrades so it’s hard to see them sell.  Besides, other than Cam Talbot, I’m not sure there’s a pending UFA that carries a lot of trade value for them.  I think they’re light buyers in terms of shoring up their depth (there are plenty of possible targets on that front) but I’m intrigued to see if they have something bigger going that requires Nikita Zaitsev’s contract being moved out.

Blue Jackets: The playoffs aren’t an option for them so they’re sellers but this will be a softer sell.  In other words, move the pending UFAs but not the core guys.  Vladislav Gavrikov will fetch a good return and as long as they’re willing to retain half of Gustav Nyquist’s deal, I think they can get a mid-round pick for him plus whatever they get for Korpisalo.  I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Jarmo Kekalainen prefers already-drafted prospects over draft picks as those players better fit the timeline of their young core.

Rangers: We’ve covered the goalie situation already but let’s look at the skaters.  They’ll be buyers barring them falling well out of the playoff race.  I had Vladimir Tarasenko going there in last weekend’s mailbag and that’s the side of the market I expect them to be on.  If there’s a key forward (winger or center), they’ll be inquiring.  Defensively, I think they’ll look to upgrade on their sixth defender; Ben Harpur is a capable depth player but do they really want him in the lineup in the playoffs?  Who they target there depends on the forward they get.

Flames: Right now, they are narrowly holding onto a Wild Card spot.  As long as they stay in that range, I think they’re buyers on the rental front.  With over $80MM in commitments for next season already per CapFriendly, they can’t really afford someone on a multi-year deal.  Depending on what happens with Oliver Kylington, they might want to add a defensive upgrade but otherwise, a top-six winger will be the target.  Having said that, I could see them being a team that sells a bit as well in an effort to try to free up some cap space.  At first glance, Andrew Mangiapane might be someone whose contract they might want to try to get out of.  Maybe the buying move is a player-player swap, not a player-for-futures one that we typically see.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what it might cost Boston to add a key rental center, the worst contracts in the NHL by position, Arizona’s trade deadline situation, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s mailbag.

Gbear: Easy one here: The Preds offense from their forward group is dreadful. Do you see Poile making any moves to add scoring help or is it the same old story in Nashville?

I think it’s the same old story for the Predators.  They have a veteran-laden team that isn’t good enough to truly be a contender nor are they bad enough to have justification for blowing it all up.  Quite frankly, even if they wanted to blow it up, I don’t think they could as moving money in this cap environment is very tough.  There are some bloated contracts that don’t have a lot of trade value at the moment.

There was some risk in Nashville’s offseason moves in that it suggested they felt last year’s offensive production was repeatable.  I doubt many others saw it the same way.  I won’t criticize GM David Poile for the moves he did make (getting Ryan McDonagh for next to nothing and signing Nino Niederreiter) because it didn’t really cost them anything in assets.  All in all, they were relatively low-risk even with McDonagh’s contract.

But those moves cemented that their goal seemed to be squeaking into the playoffs and see what happens from there.  And, let’s face it, you don’t have to look very far to find a team that squeaked into the postseason and made it all the way to the Cup Final.  It’s not necessarily a viable strategy but it works enough that some teams want to try it with the odd one going on a run.

So, with that in mind, I don’t see many big changes coming one way or the other.  They’re six points out but have games in hand on almost everyone ahead of them.  Knowing where they are, any improvements are likely to be low-risk, low-cost incremental ones; if they didn’t commit to big upgrades last summer, they’re not doing it now.  On the seller side, they’re not exactly loaded with expiring deals that other teams are going to want in early March.  I suspect they’ll wait things out for a while and then take a tiny step whether it’s as a buyer or seller.  Nothing too exciting, I know, but I don’t see any big splash on the horizon for them.

The Duke: All-knowing, -seeing and -prognosticating Snow Globe (hey, it’s Christmastime), please soothsay the following: 1. Long-term, UPL, Portillo, or Levi? 2. Where does Tarasenko land – and in this season or next? 3. Brighter scoring future: Ruzicka, Holtz, or Kent Johnson? BONUS Q: What season does Askarov arrive in Smashville? Merry Christmas – and Happy New Year!

I don’t know why but I feel a bit more shaken up than usual following this question…

1) Assuming you mean who the long-term starter in Buffalo is going to be, let’s go with Devon Levi if I have to pick one of those three.  I think Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen can be a capable NHL goalie but he might be more of a platoon option than a true starter.  Erik Portillo is no guarantee to sign with the Sabres so it’s hard to pick him for this question either.  Levi might be more of a platoon option himself (if he and Luukkonen form a serviceable tandem, that could work out great for Buffalo) but at this point, I’d say he has the best long-term upside for the Sabres so he gets the nod by default.

2) The unstated question here is will the Blues want to sell?  If they don’t, I don’t think Tarasenko moves this season.  That call won’t be made for at least six more weeks but if they keep playing at this level, I’ll say they will sell and thus, he will move this season.  I know the Rangers seem to be the expected landing spot for Patrick Kane but if they want to do a move that doesn’t necessarily require double retention, this might be the one.  Plus, for some reason, I can hear Sam Rosen calling “Vladimir Tarasenko – It’s a Power Play Goal!” in my head and it sounds fitting.  Let’s go with Tarasenko to the Rangers at the deadline.

3) I’ll take Alexander Holtz.  This year has been a complete write-off and I’m not at all a fan of how the Devils have handled him.  Scorers need to score and sitting a top prospect for numerous games in between playing him on the fourth line isn’t helping anyone.  However, he’s the one player on this list who still has top-line upside in my books (Johnson is more of a second liner and Ruzicka is still trying to become a full-fledged regular) so that gives him the nod.

Bonus) 2024-25.  That’s Juuse Saros’ final year under contract and the Predators will want to know if Yaroslav Askarov is ready to be a starter so quickly, whether he’s more of a backup at that point, or if he’s an NHL goalie altogether.  Right now, he needs as many games as possible so I don’t think they’ll want him up (barring injuries) this season or next.

@dajc: What do you think it’s going to take to get Jonathan Toews into a Bruin jersey?

When I first saw this question, I questioned if strengthening a fairly strong spot would be Boston’s best course of action.  However, if Toews was anchoring a two-way checking line in the playoffs, that would give them a huge boost.  Making it work, however, will be a bit tricky.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way first.  They will need a third team to retain so that they’re only taking on 25% of Toews’ $10.5MM AAV.  If we look back at the few examples of those types of deals, you’re probably looking at a third-rounder, maybe a second if there were a few teams with similar offers on the table.  What works in Boston’s favor here is that Toews only has a base salary of $2.9MM so the actual cash outlay for the third team that they’re trying to incentivize to retain would be fairly minimal but they will have to part with a decent draft pick to get their cap charge down to $2.625MM.

As for what they’d need to send to Chicago, it’s likely to involve a first-round pick.  Toews isn’t the top center he once was but he still has 11 goals this season, is simply elite at the faceoff dot (65.6%), and can play in all situations.  Moving someone like Craig Smith solves the cap issue; they’d actually free up some cap space even by throwing him in.  I think there’s a secondary element that needs to go in there as well, a decent prospect.  Marc McLaughlin comes to mind as a near NHL-ready center that they might want to target.  Boston might not want to move him but they’ll need to incentivize Chicago to take Smith’s contract.

The good news for the Bruins here is that the rental center market is deeper than usual so Toews shouldn’t command the top return.  That should be Bo Horvat as things stand barring a late change of heart in Vancouver (which could very well happen).  But Boston won’t get Toews for cheap either but a package of a first-rounder, Smith, McLaughlin, and a third-rounder (to a third team) might be enough, particularly if that’s where Toews indicates he wants to go.  Like Claude Giroux last season with the Flyers, his preferred destination(s) will largely dictate which Chicago can or can’t get for him.

Nha Trang: Okay, I actually do have a question, I fibbed: who would you tab as the worst regular players in the league in terms of value to salary at forward, defense and goal? (Not counting LTIR types — obviously Montreal’s got the short end of the stick with Price there.)

First, thanks for the kind words that preceded your question from the callout for questions.

Forward: Tyler Seguin – Dallas committed franchise player money to Seguin, a player who hasn’t averaged over a point per game since 2015-16.  He’s still a capable player but he is more of a second liner at this point of his career and by the time this contract ends, he’ll probably be lower on the depth chart.  He has four years left after this one at $9.85MM and as Dallas looks to try to retain and enhance its core, this is the type of contract that will make doing that considerably more difficult.

Defense: Marc-Edouard Vlasic – His deal certainly isn’t the priciest (he’s tied for 24th among AAVs for blueliners) but it has been a few years since he has been the true shutdown defender he was in his prime.  Frankly, it has been a few years since he has been much more than a replacement-level rearguard.  He turns 36 in March and still has three years left at $7MM per season.  That’s not good when his play has gone downhill in a hurry.  There are other more expensive veterans on bad deals, sure, but those players are least still providing some on-ice value.  I don’t think Vlasic will be anytime soon.

Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky – He’s the second-highest-paid goalie in NHL history behind Carey Price.  For that, the Panthers were expecting to get high-end goaltending, the type that you can rely on to carry you to big things.  Well, this season, Bobrovsky is below-average in GAA and SV%.  If he was making $2MM, that would be one thing.  But he’s not making $2MM.  He’s making $10MM this season and for three years after that.  Spencer Knight is close to taking away the number one job and when that happens, Florida will have an untradeable backup that makes more money than what the majority of the league is spending on their goalie tandems.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what might be next for Washington, Lindy Ruff’s future in New Jersey, some summer moves that teams might want a mulligan on, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column.

2012orioles: Will the Capitals do anything with their LTIR money?

KRB: Only 22.5% of teams outside of a playoff position at American Thanksgiving make the playoffs. Washington may be outside looking in at that cut-off date, Peter Laviolette’s contract expires at the end of this season, and only Carlson is signed of their D corps, beyond this year. Are the Caps sellers at the deadline? Too early to speculate?

As we did with the Los Angeles questions last week, let’s combine the Washington ones.

I fully expect Washington will use their LTIR money, it just might not be the way you think.  For starters, they’ve already used some on claiming Nicolas Aube-Kubel from Toronto.  The rest is going to depend on Nicklas Backstrom.  If he’s able to return later this season (he skated today which is certainly promising), they’re going to need what’s left of Connor Brown’s LTIR money to try to get cap-compliant to be able to activate him.  (They’ll have to get a bit creative to free up the rest of the room from there.)  But if Backstrom can’t return in-season, then yes, they’ll be able to go out and add another piece.  LTIR space doesn’t bank like regular cap space does so in theory, they could do something sooner than later but knowing the uncertainty with Backstrom, I suspect they’ll wait for a little while until they have a firmer understanding of when he might be able to come back.

I have a hard time thinking Washington is going to be sellers unless things really go off the rails and they have no choice but to move some expirings at the deadline.  And even in that scenario, it’d be a one-year sell with an eye on getting back into the mix in 2023-24.

As bad as the early season has gone, they’re just three points out of a playoff spot heading into today’s games.  Tom Wilson is going to be back before too long and that will be a significant boost to an injury-depleted forward group so there’s a bit of room for optimism on the horizon.

There was speculation last month that Laviolette would be the next coach to sign an extension.  Perhaps the sluggish start gives GM Brian MacLellan pause but I don’t think Laviolette’s contract situation is going to play much of a role in their decision-making.  They’re built to be a win-now team and I expect they’ll operate that way as long as they can which means that if they can add (depending on Backstrom’s situation), they’ll do that.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: I know it’s early yet to talk trades, but what are the odds the Flyers try to move Risto and that terrible contract? He’s currently on the outs with Torts (but then on a daily basis someone always is) but I feel that even though he brings the physicality Torts wants, the defensive lapses are just too much to overcome. And, who would be more likely to move…Risto or JVR? I lean towards JVR, even though he has more value to the Flyers than Risto at this point. Between these contracts and the career-threatening injuries, the immediate future seems bleak…hoping some of the younger kids in the AHL develop soon….

To say there has been some angst during Rasmus Ristolainen’s tenure with the Flyers would be an understatement.  The price to acquire him seemed high and then the decision to not trade him at the trade deadline didn’t go over well.  Neither did the five-year, $25.5MM extension he signed.  And now that he is seemingly in John Tortorella’s doghouse, things are somehow getting worse.

Having said all that, I’d say the odds of them trying to move Ristolainen right now range from slim to nil.  It’s clear that GM Chuck Fletcher is a big believer in the 28-year-old and a rough seven-week patch probably isn’t going to change that.  There’s also the matter of the contract.  The trade market is minimal at this point to begin with but I find it hard to believe that there will be teams lining up to trade value for Ristolainen when his value is by far the lowest it has ever been.  And if the options are either to give up assets to get out of the contract or keep him and hope things work out, I suspect they’ll opt for the latter.

So, to answer the second half of your question, James van Riemsdyk is the likelier of the two to move.  Closer to the trade deadline, there should be some interest in him as a middle-six scoring upgrade as long as the Flyers are willing to retain 50% of the rest of the contract (which runs through the end of this season).  It might not be a significant return as there will be other wingers like him available (probably on cheaper deals) but they should be able to get a small something for him.

Grocery stick: Coach Ruff has been seen as a stopgap solution between now and the moment the Devils are ready for contention. The Devils had a strong start to the season and – perhaps even more importantly – have some impressing offensive and possession metrics. I guess that offensive uptick was exactly what they hoped for when they signed Ruff. Did this start to the season improve Ruff’s chances of staying at the helm long-term? Or is he basically just accelerating time until his successor steps in?

New Jersey’s strong start has only gotten better since this question was posed as they enter play today on an 11-game winning streak which has them first in the Metropolitan Division.  But I still don’t think Ruff is viewed as the long-term coach for the Devils.

You used stopgap as the type of coach Ruff was viewed as heading into the season and I had a similar term for him as well and still do.  He turns 63 in February and while there’s no must-retire age for coaches, he’s probably not too far away from that point.  I’m not even sure this earns him an extension right away – he’s in the final year of his contract – as GM Tom Fitzgerald probably wants to see if this is sustainable before entertaining that idea.

The moment they hired Andrew Brunette, New Jersey had their coach of the future as long as someone doesn’t swoop in and hire him away before they’re ready to make that switch.  But I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they hired an offensive-minded younger coach to apprentice behind an offensive-minded older coach; it’s a natural succession plan but Brunette won’t want to be in the number two role for any extended period of time.

When Ruff was hired, I pegged him as a bridge coach, one that could get the team going offensively and aid in the development of core youngsters like Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier.  He has done that, even when the results weren’t great last year.  Perhaps this buys him a short-term extension over time but this is his third season with the team now.  I’d be surprised if he lasts three more which is probably needed for him to be considered as a long-term coach.

Vegas Moved: Is there any indication Anaheim might move Gibson? What sort of haul could they expect?

There has been speculation about John Gibson and the possibility of a trade for a few years now but I don’t really see why.  I get one side of the discussion – Anaheim is in a rebuild and Gibson might not mind going to more of a contending team.  However, the other side is where I struggle to see a fit.  With how Gibson has played lately, what contending team will want him?

Gibson has been below the NHL average in save percentage for each of the last three seasons and is once again below that mark early on this year at .893 while his 4.13 GAA is far from ideal either.  Is that the statistical profile that teams would want?  Granted, there is a possibility that he’d improve on a better team.  But to what extent?  If he gains 10 points on his save percentage, that just brings him back to where he was the last three years, below average.  If he shaved half a goal per game off, he’d still be near the bottom of the league.  At a full goal per game improvement, his GAA would improve to mediocre.

There’s also the contract to consider as he’s signed through 2026-27 at $6.4MM.  For that money and commitment, you’re not exactly getting bang for your buck anymore.  So what teams are lining up to provide anything let alone a haul for Gibson?  If anything, Anaheim would be trying to incentivize teams to take on the rest of the contract.

I have to be honest, I misread this deal a few years ago.  I thought this would be a contract that was ahead of the curve, one that was about $1MM higher than the goalie median at the time but as the cap continued to increase, goalie salaries would go up and they’d have an above-average goalie at about an average price tag.  But the cap stopped going up and Gibson stopped being an above-average goalie.  That was the worst-case scenario for the Ducks and it came true here.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the early-season struggles for multiple Western Conference teams, possible trade candidates, the Hockey Hall of Fame, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

J.H.: Could you see the Kings making a change from McLellan if their defensive, structural issues lead to a prolonged slump? The added offense is nice, but the breakdowns, turnovers, and various other miscues have cost them several games. System issues like that probably shouldn’t be happening now in year four, especially since there are actual expectations for this team after last year’s playoff appearance. Are there any other potential coaching changes you could foresee that would be surprising yet plausible like that?

bigalval: Kings have given up the most goals of any team what is wrong with them?

Let’s put the Los Angeles questions together.  First, it’s worth noting that they’ve won three straight since the first one was posted which might change things up a bit.  I don’t think McLellan’s future is overly secure as yes, there are some structural issues and if you look at his last job with Edmonton, this was around the time when they made a change.  But thanks to that three-game win streak, they’re in the top three in the Western Conference so they’re likely not leaning towards making a move.

If I was going to speculate about a coaching change, this feels like a good landing spot for Barry Trotz if he was willing to return.  He would fix up some of the defensive breakdowns with his systems although it would likely come at the expense of some scoring, an area where things have been going quite well in the early going.  That would also help solve some of the goaltending woes.

One of the concerns I had about the Kings going into this season was between the pipes.  Yes, Jonathan Quick had a bounce-back year last season but his last three years were below league average.  Accordingly, it was unrealistic to expect that his 2021-22 performance would carry over.  It hasn’t.  Calvin Petersen had a tough showing last year which was cause for concern this season and his numbers early on are worse than last season.  Going into this season with that duo and no demonstrable improvement on the back end (beyond a return to health for Drew Doughty) was risky.  Right now, it’s holding them back.

Gbear: The Preds have for the most part looked like a well below-average hockey team so far this season, how long of a rope do you think John Hynes has if this type of play continues?

I think he still has a lot of rope left.  GM David Poile is known for being patient and has made a grand total of one in-season coaching change in franchise history, one that dates back to 1998.  A slow start alone probably isn’t going to be enough of an indictment to pull the trigger quickly.

How much of their early-season struggles are based on coaching and how much of those struggles are attributable to roster composition?  Looking at their roster, there are a lot of fringe or unproven players filling out that lineup.  That’s not a good thing.

There’s also the matter of last year having some unsustainable performances.  How many think that Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen will produce at a similar rate this season and beyond?  I don’t even think Poile did as his upgrades to the roster were of the free variety, ones that didn’t push in any younger assets as a team with eyes on contending might be willing to do.  Poile’s actions this summer were that of a GM that knows his team is a bubble squad.

Right now, the Predators sit near the bottom of the West but aren’t too far out of the playoff race.  That’s slightly underachieving but probably not to the point where a coaching change is seriously being considered.

Johnny Z: Where is Bo Horvat going?
Where is Brossoit going?
Will the Sabres go after Kane?

I have a hard time thinking that Vancouver isn’t going to find a way to keep Horvat in the fold.  The market rate for centers like him is in the mid-$7MM range and if the Canucks get around there, I think they’d be able to work something out from there.  I wonder if they might be waiting to see if they get some sort of indication or an updated estimate of next year’s cap to see if they can afford to give him that extra little bit to get a contract done.  I’m not convinced he’s going anywhere unless they really fall out of the mix over the next couple of months and they decide to really shake up the core.  If that happens, ask me again closer to the trade deadline.

Laurent Brossoit made it through waivers this week which takes away my original answer of Winnipeg.  That is, unless they prefer to trade for him using David Rittich to offset some of the difference in salary; with attendance down, those little differences might matter.  Right now, I think he stays put for a little while and gets some regular reps in the minors.  If he can do that, stay healthy, and play well, then he becomes a trade candidate with either a little bit of retention or some sort of salary offset for whoever has a goalie go down with a long-term injury over the next month or so.  Unfortunately, that makes it next to impossible to predict where he’ll go since we can’t forecast who will have goalie injuries.

Patrick Kane to Buffalo has long been speculated and for obvious reasons.  But I still don’t understand the notion of trading for him.  They’re probably not making the playoffs and considering he’s a Buffalo native, I don’t think they need to try to sell themselves and the market to him; I’m pretty sure he knows what’s what already.  He should be dealt to a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and that’s not Buffalo.  Now, come July, the answer should almost certainly be yes.  As a free agent, with no cost beyond the contract, Kane would make a lot of sense for the Sabres as a veteran to help drag them from being a non-playoff team into one that should battle for at least a Wild Card spot.  But that’s a move for them to make next summer, not before then.

Gmm8811: It’s still early in the season…I usually wait till 20-23 games played to decide if a team needs to be blown up or not. With that being said, what are your thoughts on the Blues dumping players for draft picks? We’ve talked salary cap issues coming up in past conversations…the fact that Armstrong isn’t afraid to let a team favorite go…I think it was a big mistake to give Kyrou and Thomas those huge extensions. Might be time to make some significant moves. 6 mil for Binnington is ridiculous also.

I don’t think St. Louis is at that spot just yet.  First, it is still too early to make that type of core shakeup.  This is a team that has eyes on contending this season and while they’re at the bottom of the Western Conference, they’re a quick winning streak away from being back in the race.  Second, who has cap space to take on a pricey player for a draft pick?  18 teams are currently in LTIR and several of the 14 that aren’t are aiming for the bottom of the standings.  That doesn’t create much of a trade market at this point of the season.

We know that GM Doug Armstrong isn’t afraid to shake things up but there’s a different element at play now.  With those big extensions to Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas kicking in next season, that squad is likely to be weaker than this one.  In other words, this is probably the last real kick at the can for this core group.  It’s one thing to part with a core player within the context of knowing that the core is still good enough to contend for a little while longer but they can’t say that here.

Is a rough stretch to start the season enough to kickstart what could be a rebuild?  Probably not.  Don’t get me wrong, if they’re still at the bottom of the conference come midseason, then Armstrong will almost certainly be laying the foundation for trades at the deadline (as again, cap situations around the league make big trades before that point less likely).  But that’s a decision to make at the 45-game mark, not 15.

If you want some reason for optimism, the Blues’ shooting percentage suggests they’re due for some good bounces to get closer to that league average.  Jordan Binnington might not be worthy of a $6MM AAV but he’s a better goalie than he has shown so far.  A better performance from him, a bit more puck luck on the goal side, and this St. Louis team is probably at least back in the mix over the next couple of months.

Read more