PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Boston’s offseason, discussing which route is the best to take for Nashville, candidates for ‘hockey’ trades, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in either last weekend’s mailbag or Saturday’s Detroit-specific column.

Zakis: Who will be the Wild’s primary goalie for the ’22-’23 season?

I’m going to say Cam Talbot.  While their Plan A is to re-sign Marc-Andre Fleury, with everything else they have to navigate this summer, I’m leery that they’ll be able to do so unless Fleury takes below his market value to stay there.  I expect Minnesota will have to be a bit more frugal while looking for their second netminder.  While they’re probably not going to wind up with a low-end, cheap second-stringer, I have a hard time thinking that second goalie will play more than Talbot, barring injury.

Assuming that happens, Talbot should check in around 50-55 starts, a mark he’d have reached this season had it not been for Fleury’s acquisition back at the trade deadline.  Getting that many starts will be important for him as well since the 34-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2023 offseason and playing a number one workload would certainly help his cause next summer on the open market.

Nha Trang: I’d ask “What the hell were the Bruins thinking?” except that everyone in hockey knows the answer.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on Sweeney being canned and ending up in Vegas?

BOSsports21: Piggybacking off a couple B’s questions already – the Bruins need a teardown and rebuild. It’s not something B’s fans want to hear, but they have only a couple of good prospects and no cap room. They weren’t really a Cup contender this past year and now they want to bring in a younger coach. If you’re the GM, do you sell off as much as you can to obtain assets? I feel Pastrnak and Marchand will not be the same without Bergeron if he retires. Even if he comes back, it’ll probably only be for a year. Might as well get good value for Pastrnak and Marchand to re-stock the bare cupboard. Thoughts?

Let’s put some Boston questions together.  GM Don Sweeney’s decision to part ways with Bruce Cassidy certainly raised some eyebrows and the fact that several teams immediately pursued him indicates that his perception around the league is much more positive than it was in Boston’s front office.  Obviously, they felt the playoff underperformance was cause for concern and there has been plenty of speculation about other factors but that’s simply speculation.

There’s a good chance that whoever Sweeney hires will be his last hire as Boston’s head coach.  He’s one of the longer-tenured general managers in the league but most are only able to make a couple of coaching changes before they’re heading out the door.  As for joining Vegas when that happens, never say never, even with what I suspect was a sarcastic question.  Vegas isn’t exactly known for patience in the early going and if they struggle over the next year or two, there could be front office changes following soon after.

Boston has operated as a team that isn’t likely to rebuild, especially with the moves they’ve made in the last few years.  They don’t give Taylor Hall a four-year deal and then acquire and extend Hampus Lindholm with an eye on rebuilding.  With the injuries they’ll be dealing with to start next season, a short-term step back was at least justifiable.  But with Patrice Bergeron now expected to return, that idea goes out the window; he’s not coming back to help ease the team through a short-term teardown.  That takes the idea of potentially trading Pastrnak and Marchand (the latter of which was probably unlikely to happen anyway) off the table.

W H Twittle: If so, could a trade be built on the basis of Pastrnak for NJ’s 2022 #2 draft pick? Obviously, NJ would need to add a couple of A pieces… that may include their 2023 1st round pick and an A prospect?

Let’s get another Boston one in here.  No, I don’t believe David Pastrnak for that second selection is a viable option for either side.  But as I just noted, the Bruins aren’t bringing Bergeron back to then turn around and start selling off key players.  If that was the route they were taking, Bergeron would be hanging up his skates.  If things don’t go well during the season, that could very well change closer to the trade deadline but this type of trade certainly won’t be on the table at that time.

Moving that second pick (and potentially other assets) for Pastrnak makes little sense for the Devils either.  If they’re going to move a premium draft pick, it will be for someone in the prime of their career that has several years of team control left (either through being under contract or club control).  They’re not moving that pick for a rental player that still probably doesn’t get them into the playoffs next season.  And if I’m Pastrnak, with all due respect to New Jersey, I’m not passing up a chance at testing the market to sign a long-term contract with them.

I think people are getting a little too hyped up about the idea of New Jersey moving this draft pick.  They’re not shopping the it, they’re simply listening to offers and coming up with a list of players that could make sense to trade for that fit their parameters.  Those parameters would involve club control and long-term salary cap planning, among other elements.  I don’t think there would be more than four or five players league-wide on that list.  Of those, how many will actually be available to move?  Maybe two?  If GM Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t get the perfect (and I mean perfect, not a ‘close enough’ scenario) offer, they’ll happily keep that pick.  There are more ways to get an impact player than by trading a high lottery selection.

Johnny Z: Some have the Flyers being interested in acquiring DeBrincat, what would that look like?

While I, like many, expect Philadelphia to shake things up in terms of their core forwards, I don’t think it’d be for Alex DeBrincat.  He’s under the old rule for qualifying offers so he’ll be owed a minimum of $9MM for his qualifier in 2023 although if he has another year like this one, he’ll be getting more than that.  That’s going to be tough to fit into their salary structure.

Then there’s the acquisition cost.  Chicago would undoubtedly want the fifth-overall pick and with the situation the Flyers are in, moving that pick wouldn’t be wise.  That’s their chance to get an impact, cost-controllable player to work into the lineup a couple of years from now to help offset some of their more bloated veteran deals.  I know they’re in win-now mode, but moving that pick isn’t a good idea.

There needs to be a cap element to the deal to help offset DeBrincat’s current $6.4MM AAV.  That could be James van Riemsdyk but if the Blackhawks don’t want to take that contract back, Oskar Lindblom’s $3MM deal could be an option.  Another first-round pick (their own in 2023) would need to be in there.  I could see Chicago asking about someone like Morgan Frost or Owen Tippett, former first-rounders that haven’t lit it up just yet.  There would probably be another prospect in there as well.  That’s a big package for a non-playoff team to pay, especially since DeBrincat alone probably doesn’t get them back to the playoffs.

If I’m GM Chuck Fletcher, I’d rather pay a quality pick or prospect to offload van Riemsdyk’s deal without taking money back and then take a serious run at Johnny Gaudreau in free agency.  If they did that and Gaudreau agreed to sign, they’d get a top-line winger without giving up a lot of their cost-controllable future.  But if I was Fletcher, I wouldn’t have made the Rasmus Ristolainen trade last summer either so even if I don’t think it’s a good idea, he might be thinking differently.

GBear: It’s July and Gbear has won the lottery and bought the Preds and fired David Poile. I’m bringing in Brian La Rose to interview for the vacant GM position. What moves would you make this offseason and who are you taking with the #17 pick of the draft? :)

Congrats on the big lottery win that allows you to swoop in and outbid Bill Haslam for the team.  Before I can answer though, my question to you is what’s my mandate?  Do I have the ability to do what I think is best or do you want some playoff revenue?  The two options aren’t the same.

Assuming you give me the ability to tear it down, that’s what I’d be looking to do.  I don’t think adding a piece or two to this core is going to vault them into contender status.  The Predators can keep treading water or they can take a step back and try to reload.  I’d look to leverage Matt Duchene’s season as a way to get out of his contract and take a cheaper one back.  That scenario was far-fetched last summer but a 43-goal season changes things.  Someone’s going to be desperate for a center later in the offseason and there’s an opportunity to strike.  I don’t see that being feasible for Ryan Johansen though.

I wouldn’t re-sign Filip Forsberg in that scenario and instead would use the cap space to take on a player from somewhere else, adding picks or prospects for doing so as Arizona has done recently.  Ideally, said player then would be flipped with retention at the deadline for another pick or prospect.  I’d make Mattias Ekholm available and try to leverage the lack of impact left-shot defenders available in free agency into a significant futures-based return.  With teams looking for a starting goalie, Juuse Saros could be had for a significant return; I’d be comfortable with some veteran buffers for a couple of years until Yaroslav Askarov is NHL-ready.  I’d aim for a two-year or three-year retooling so Roman Josi would stick around.  I’d want to see more minutes for Tanner Jeannot, Philip Tomasino, Eeli Tolvanen, and Alexandre Carrier to see if they’re part of the long-term plans so any cap dumps I’d pick up would be for lower roles on the roster.  Philippe Myers gets flipped for whatever the best offer is with the acquiring team getting a cap credit (a move that should be made in both win-now and sell-now scenarios).  Since this answer can’t go on forever, that’s a very quick overview of what my plan would be.

Now, if you’re telling me you want early playoff revenues, then it’s a much different approach.  Filip Forsberg gets his eight years around $8MM.  I’d target Vegas to try to add Nicolas Roy, giving the Preds a third center with some upside.  He’s a strong offer sheet target with their cap situation so this could be a chance to add to the position without the return being super high.  Andre Burakovsky would be a target to add on the wing to provide a two-way element while still boosting the scoring potential of the second line, shifting some of those younger players onto the third line to really balance out the attack.

On defense, I’d like someone like Josh Manson to shore up the back end but so would a lot of other teams.  I’d go into the upper $4MM range for his services which might not be enough to get it done.  Ideally, a physical shutdown defender that can take some pressure off the younger players and deepen the back end is the target.

The only reason there’s enough cap space to do all of this is the goaltending.  I’d use Connor Ingram as the backup for Saros over.  I think he has legitimate NHL upside and sneaking him through waivers isn’t going to happen.  His $758K cap hit provides some extra cap flexibility to upgrade an extra spot on the roster and I’d rather put money towards an every-game player over someone who probably is only going to play 20-25 times since there isn’t a big difference between Ingram and a $2MM to $3MM backup.  Those additions should be enough to keep the Preds in the playoff hunt for the next couple of years and perhaps even win a round and from there, you never know what can happen.

It’s hard to forecast who’s going to be available with the 17th pick but someone like Denton Mateychuk fits as someone in that range.  He’s a bit undersized but is a good offensive defenseman and adding someone to take some pressure off Josi when he slows down would help.  A center would be preferable though given the state of their prospect pool so Marco Kasper would also be high on my list.  He hasn’t looked out of place in the SHL and there’s a good defensive floor to work with.  I think there’s second-line upside with the offensive and a two-way top-six center would be a nice addition in the middle of the first round.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the creative usage of LTIR in recent years, Buffalo’s goaltending situation, J.T. Miller’s future with Vancouver, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here and wasn’t about Detroit, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.  If your question was about the Red Wings, watch for that to be covered in a bonus mailbag between now and then.

WilfPaiement: Is there any updated information on Oscar Klefbom? Playing next season? Retiring?

It’s the status quo for the Edmonton blueliner.  Klefbom’s shoulder injury still lingers and at this point, there’s no expectation that he’ll be able to resume his NHL career.  He certainly won’t be retiring, however.  He’s still owed $5.169MM in salary for next season and there’s no way he’s leaving that on the table to do Edmonton a favor.  Since his deal is backloaded as well, he’s not as likely of a candidate to be moved to a team looking to do some LTIR shenanigans.  Speaking of which…

rickg: Are there any opinions on how teams are using the LTIR for the purpose of adding to the roster to better the team, instead of what the LTIR was intended to be used for as a way to replace an injured player on your roster if your team was maxed out and LTIR allowed the team to go past the high-end cap threshold?

There are few things as confusing in hockey as the inner machinations of LTIR.  It might even give ‘What constitutes goalie interference?’ a run for its money at times.  I’d say by now that most understand the basics which was what the rule was intended to be but these trades that now see injured players going for value that involve transaction sequencing and precise timing of roster moves takes it to a whole different level, one that is much more confusing and harder to explain.

But even if they’re harder to explain, are stranger on the surface, and can even flat out baffle people, I have no problem with these types of moves.  The NHL is a hard cap system that doesn’t have a lot of potential for wiggle room.  If teams can find a loophole to exploit, go for it.  Use it until enough general managers complain to make it a sticking point in the next CBA discussions.  Right now, there isn’t enough of an appetite for trying to close that Pandora’s box.

Does the recent Shea Weber for Evgenii Dadonov trade go against the spirit of the LTIR rule?  Of course it does.  But if Montreal and Vegas are both happy at the end of the day and the trade fulfills an objective they wanted to achieve, then good on them for finding a way to make something work.  At least it made for a good discussion point for a bit of time during a quiet part of the NHL calendar when it comes to off-ice movement.

I’ll mention that this question came in before that trade happened.  Perfect timing on your part.

Johnny Z: So, does Blashill have the inside track on the Florida coaching job?

The former Detroit bench boss was linked to the Panthers earlier this month but at this point, it’s hard to see him being the contender for a position that may or may not be available.  With reports coming out on Friday that Florida is conducting a rather thorough coaching search and has interviewed several prominent veterans, it’s hard to see Jeff Blashill coming up as the winner in that particular battle should GM Bill Zito opt to go in a different direction from interim head coach Andrew Brunette.

I think Blashill could be a candidate to be an assistant coach with Florida, however, particularly if Brunette retains the job.  There are openings to be filled and if you have effectively a first-time head coach running the bench, it wouldn’t hurt to have someone with recent NHL head coaching experience on the staff.  Blashill, who doesn’t seem to be a candidate for any of the other openings at the moment, would be a decent fit in that type of role and unlike the prominent veterans, would likely be willing to accept an associate coach position as well.  He could wind up in Florida, just not as their next head coach.

ckw: Do you think Shane Wright is going to go first overall and if not, who do you see the Habs taking?

I know there’s a growing sense that Juraj Slafkovsky could ultimately be the number one pick and I can understand the logic behind it.  Wright’s season wasn’t up to the admittedly high level of expectations and while Slafkovsky was quiet himself for long stretches, his performance at the Olympics and the Worlds turned some heads.  If he can find a way to play at that level consistently, he’s worthy of being the top pick.  But that’s a big if.  Even so, this doesn’t feel like the type of typical smokescreen you might see at this time of year from the team holding the top pick.

That said, Wright is my expected choice for the Canadiens.  Montreal has been chasing center help for basically the better part of two decades now.  Even when their NHL depth was good, they didn’t have that true number one.  I don’t think Wright is a true number one either but a combination of him and Nick Suzuki for seven years as their top two options is a lot better than what they’ve trotted out in recent years.  I have a hard time thinking they can pass on that, especially knowing that their salary cap situation isn’t exactly ideal; it’s not as if they can go out and sign an impact free agent middleman any time soon.

pawtucket: J.T. Miller gets traded. If yes, to what sort of team and for what sort of package.  If no, which of Horvat or Boeser goes and to what sort of team and for what sort of package.

I’m going to say yes, Miller does get traded.  Is Vancouver really prepared to pay upwards of $8MM per season on a contract that starts at the age of 30 for a player who has only twice reached the 60-point mark?  I know he has been much more productive lately but I still see giant red flags when I try to picture that type of contract.  Knowing extending Miller would eventually cost Bo Horvat (they can’t afford Elias Pettersson, Miller, and Horvat down the middle), I’d rather take the short-term hit in talent to add some important future assets and gain some much-needed cap flexibility.

As for where, that’s a tough one but I’ll say Los Angeles.  Anze Kopitar has two years left on his deal and Miller’s extension wouldn’t start until 2023-24 so there’s only one year of overlap.  Kopitar will be in his age-37 season when he signs his next contract so he’ll likely be starting to decline at that time; a new top pivot will be needed.  Miller would be a good insurance policy if the likes of Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte don’t pan out as intended (and if they do, affordable short-term surplus center depth is never a bad thing).  The Kings have the cap space to bring him in now and have some longer-term flexibility.  They also have quality prospects that would make it easier to part with the package it would take.

I’d peg that package as a three-piece deal.  The first-round pick (19th overall) next month would be one of them.  I’d put Rasmus Kupari in their as a second one, a 22-year-old former first-rounder that could be Vancouver’s cost-controlled 3C of the future; if he pans out, a Pettersson-Horvat (assuming he’d be extended after moving Miller)-Kupari trio would put them in good shape.  The other is a prospect and looking at what the Canucks have in their prospect pool, a right-shot defender would be a target.  The Kings have a few of those but the one that stands out is Brock Faber, a 2020 second-rounder that’s probably a year away from being pro-ready and plays the type of complementary game that would work well alongside someone like Quinn Hughes.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mathew Dumba and Minnesota’s cap crunch, the Rangers’ center situation beyond this season, Seattle’s underwhelming year, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What is the next step for the Sens. The team has stockpiled a good core of youth (especially on the blue line) but what do they have to do this offseason to take the next step?

The young nucleus for the Senators is pretty strong between Brady Tkachuk, Joshua Norris, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson up front plus Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson on the back end.  Now, they need to upgrade the supporting cast, so to speak.

Defensively, they need a top-four, all situations type of player.  Players like Nick Holden, Nikita Zaitsev, and even trade deadline acquisition Travis Hamonic are serviceable veterans that can raise the floor of their defense corps.  While that’s useful, now GM Pierre Dorion needs to raise the ceiling for this group to take a step forward.  Chabot and Sanderson plus Artem Zub and Erik Brannstrom have some room to grow but with the right veterans, they’ll get there faster.

Up front, the top line is pretty much set with Tkachuk, Norris, and Batherson.  But Stutzle’s linemates aren’t as consistent or anywhere near as good.  Connor Brown is a good veteran but he’s not a big scorer while Alex Formenton’s speed is high-end but his scoring isn’t.  Upgrading one (or if you want to aim big, both) of those spots would really deepen the offense.

On top of that, a goalie upgrade would help them take a step forward.  Anton Forsberg isn’t a true starter, Matt Murray has underachieved, and Filip Gustavsson may not be ready for a full-time NHL roster spot (although waiver eligibility will probably keep him up).

That’s a huge wish list but adding any of those elements will help them get back to at least realistically battling for a playoff spot next season.  That would be a good next step for Ottawa who isn’t really in a position to go from a bottom-feeder to a contender overnight unless Dorion manages to have the offseason of a lifetime and hit on all of these areas.

DarkSide830: With his name in past rumors and MIN needing to make a move, I wonder, can PHI make a move for Dumba? They need to get better on the back end and he could be available for 80 cents on the dollar with MIN’s crunch. I presume they need to move out a JVR then. Can they move enough of JVR’s cap without having to give someone a pick with it so they can reasonably fit Dumba in?

While I agree that Minnesota has a cap crunch, I disagree that they will make someone like Dumba available for 80 cents on the dollar.  Yes, everyone knows they need to clear money but whoever goes – Dumba or Kevin Fiala (who’d fit one of those holes in Ottawa we just went over) – there will be enough demand that they’ll be able to get full value.  Let’s say it’s Dumba.  The UFA market for impact defensemen isn’t the deepest and Dumba’s cap hit is lower than what players like Kris Letang and John Klingberg are going to get.  That bodes well for maximizing trade value, even with their hand being forced.

As for James van Riemsdyk, they’re not going to get much cap relief in a trade unless they send a pick with him.  If I was an acquiring team, I’m pointing at the Patrick Marleau to Carolina trade as a benchmark; that move cost Toronto a first-rounder.  Is it possible that they flip him for another underachieving veteran that makes a little less?  Sure.  That is definitely a plausible option.  But will they save enough to fit Dumba’s $6MM in?  Nope.  Frankly, I’m not sure they’d save more on the cap next season than if they bought him out ($4.33MM cap charge) with a trade.

And if I’m Philadelphia GM Chuck Fletcher, notwithstanding the van Riemsdyk thing, do I really want to part with the first-round pick and/or a top young asset that it will probably take to get into the bidding to acquire Dumba?  That’s not a smart strategy for a non-playoff team, even if it’s a core he thinks is better than it has shown.  Once you do factor in the likely cost to offload van Riemsdyk’s contract for cap relief on top of the acquisition cost, the price for Dumba is one they shouldn’t be willing to pay.

Bill Blueshirt: The NYR need a 2C next year while being in a cap squeeze. Strome seems unaffordable. Do they a) sign Copp, b) go with Chytil and backfill at 3C, c) trade some of their many prospects for a C (and who would that be), or d) ???

I’m not convinced the bidding for Ryan Strome is going to be super high this summer.  Yes, he has put up impressive numbers the last couple of seasons but he was doing that with Artemi Panarin on the wing a good chunk of the time.  But his history before getting to New York was spotty at best and I’m confident there are general managers out there who will be hesitant to commit a big contract to him this summer.

I’m not saying there won’t be a good market for him but I wouldn’t be shocked if his AAV winds up being close to where Andrew Copp’s lands.  If that’s the case, I don’t think Strome re-signing can easily be ruled out.

Do they need to free up some money?  Probably.  I wonder if they try to find a taker for Patrik Nemeth and take a cheaper player back to give them some wiggle room.  But if they go with some cheap end-of-roster options and make a small cap-clearing move or two (Alexandar Georgiev being another one), I think they can cobble enough together to make an intermediate type of offer that could be enough to keep one of Copp or Strome in the fold.  So, to answer your question, I’ll pick either a or d.

FearTheWilson: In your opinion who are the most underrated players in the league?

This is always a hard question to answer as underrated can be interpreted in a few different contexts.  I could rhyme off some names that some of you may not be familiar with that are actually important players and that would qualify as underrated.  But I suspect you’re looking for more prominent names so I’ll go with those.

Quick, think of an impact center on the Blues.  No, not Ryan O’Reilly.  Not Brayden Schenn either who, for many, would be the second one that comes to mind with his contract.  Meanwhile, all Robert Thomas did this season was lead their centers in scoring while logging nearly 19 minutes a night.  He was an impact offensive player in junior and while it has taken a few years for him to truly become an impact player in the NHL, he’s there, even if he doesn’t immediately come to mind when St. Louis centers are being discussed.

Roope Hintz is a player that many are familiar with.  If you were thinking to yourself that he’s a good secondary scorer, it’d certainly be understandable.  When digging into this question, that’s where I was leaning.  But he averaged over a point per game last year and followed that up with 37 goals and 35 assists this season, finishing tied for 20th in the league in goals.  That’s not a good secondary scorer, that’s a higher-end primary player who, by the way, spends a lot of time at center after coming up as a winger a few years ago.  He definitely fits the bill of being underrated.

As for a defenseman, the first one that came to mind was Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson.  He showed flashes of offensive upside over his first few NHL seasons but found another gear this season as he very quickly reached the 50-point mark.  But he isn’t just a slick-skating, offensive defender.  He takes a regular turn on the penalty kill and is trusted in all situations while leading the Flames in ice time.  Despite all of that, if I ran a poll of what type of blueliner he is, I think a ‘good number four’ would probably win out.  He’s much more than that; Andersson is quietly pushing for lower-end number one territory.

I’ll add a goalie to the list as well in Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin.  His delayed arrival in North America has resulted in limited exposure; he has played in just 74 career NHL games.  On top of that, New York had a season to forget as they were out of contention early.  But Sorokin very quietly was second in the league in save percentage this season (.925) and fourth in goals against average (2.40), impressive numbers for a non-playoff team.  If he puts up similar numbers next season and the Isles rebound in the standings, Sorokin will be in the discussion for the Vezina Trophy.  But when it comes to thinking of top NHL goaltenders, his name often doesn’t come up.

trak2k: If the Kraken do not “do anything” in free agency and or struggle at the beginning of next season do they fire the GM?

I don’t think there’s any chance of a GM change in Seattle within the next year.  When the Kraken chose their roster in expansion, it became more than evident that they were planning a longer-scale build.  In other words, they were going to have the development curve of a traditional expansion team.  That results in losing seasons early on.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Ron Francis did a particularly good job in assembling his roster in expansion and even their coaching choice was underwhelming.  But he got the green light to build this way.  To turn around and go back on that this early doesn’t seem like a likely outcome.

If I was Francis, I wouldn’t be overly active in free agency this summer.  With so many teams in cap trouble, they’re ripe for the picking in terms of adding extra picks and prospects in exchange for taking on an unwanted contract or two, improving their future, and probably helping the current team in the process.  Basically, do what they didn’t do a year ago.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Barry Trotz’s market, Toronto’s early playoff exit, what’s next for Nashville, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

M34: With a pretty strong young core and some team-friendly veteran contracts with plenty of room to spare, which UFA goalie does NJ pursue?  Kuemper?  Fleury?

Non-tendered: Another one regarding the Devils — It appears as if they have the assets and cap space to acquire an elite goaltender, which many believe is their biggest need. Is the notion of needing an elite goaltender done? The Oilers are primed to go deep and look at all the goalie problems they’ve had. Carolina is a revolving door of consonants between the pipes. How many elite goalies are there, really? Vasy, Shesterkin, Bob?

I’d prefer the Devils to shore up the netminder for 7+ years to come, but I’m not sure Kuemper, Gibson, or Husso are the ones. Who do the Devils look to to improve the goalie situation and what do they with all their assets?

I had a similar question in a mailbag last month so I won’t dig too deep into who they go after.  But I think the Devils are going to have a hard time making themselves attractive to veterans like Darcy Kuemper and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Kuemper is on a top team with a chance for a long playoff run.  To turn around and go to a team that has consistently been out of the playoffs for a while would be surprising.  As for Fleury, he’s near the end of his career.  He wants to win or play where he’s comfortable.  I don’t think New Jersey fits either situation.

The UFA I think they go after is Ville Husso.  They have the cap space to go higher on the AAV than most teams will so why not go for some upside?  There’s some risk but if they offset that with a capable 1B option (I suggested a trade for Boston’s Linus Ullmark in that previous mailbag assuming he’s willing to waive his no-move protection), the risk would be mitigated to an extent.  That would give them a capable tandem with a big of upside and some certainty; Ullmark is signed for three years and Husso will probably get that long or more.  Some stability between the pipes certainly wouldn’t hurt.  I also don’t think they’d need to part with any significant asset to get Ullmark from the Bruins.

Now to circle back to the question that’s sort of sandwiched by what New Jersey should do.  You make a good point in that there are few elite goalies in the league and of the three you suggested, I wouldn’t put Sergei Bobrovsky in that category.  (If you want a darkhorse candidate for who’s in net for New Jersey next year, it’s him in a cap dump from Florida if they can get him to waive his no-move clause.)  Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin are definitely in there and Juuse Saros has a chance to get into that group.  But in terms of elite, that’s about it.

Teams are beginning to embrace the platoon option more and more now which makes sense if they don’t have an elite or at least a higher-end starter.  It’s more cost-efficient and is a better hedge against in-season injuries.  New Jersey has tried to go that way the last couple of years and will likely stay on that path moving forward.

Johnny Z: NJ hinted at trading #2 OA. Do you think it could be offered for a player such as Fiala or Willie Nylander?

The speculation about New Jersey’s openness to move their first-round pick came before the Draft Lottery when their pick sat fifth and could drop as low as seventh.  Things have changed since then with them winning the second draw, giving them the second pick.  Now, they have a chance to get a core piece in the draft, either a winger like Juraj Slafkovsky or a defenseman like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek (assuming Montreal takes Shane Wright).  That jump of a few spots really changes the outlook.  If you can get a long-term core piece that should be NHL-ready fairly soon, they’re probably going to be better off keeping the pick.

For me, to even consider trading the pick, I’d want someone either signed or under team control for at least four years, someone that’s going to be part of their long-term core.  William Nylander has two years left on his contract and with how contentious his last contract talks went, there’s little reason to think he’d sign an early extension so there would be a risk to acquiring him in such a move.  It’s possible they could work out a long-term agreement with Kevin Fiala as part of a deal but if management thinks Slafkovsky can produce at a similar level, why not keep the pick and take him instead?

Never say never but there’s a reason teams very seldom trade top picks, let alone trading out of the draft entirely.  They’ll certainly listen to what’s out there but I’d be surprised if that trend changes with the Devils this summer.

2012 orioles: What are the most realistic destinations for Trotz?

Player free agency doesn’t happen for a couple more months but coaching free agency just got a whole lot more interesting when Lou Lamoriello made Barry Trotz available.  He’s probably going to wind up with a raise on the $4MM that he was getting with New York (and is still owed until he finds a new team) and plenty of job security in the form of a long-term deal.

In terms of who is a realistic fit for him, Vegas is the first team that comes to mind.  They’ve set the bar high and Trotz is a coach that has plenty of pedigree and a good playoff track record.  Both of those appeal to an organization like the Golden Knights.  And if the Golden Knights are worried about how things went down with Robin Lehner down the stretch, what better move could they make by bringing in his coach from his best NHL season (2018-19)?  He’s a splashy hire and would give them a boost while they have the willingness to spend big to get him.  I’d handicap them as the top contender as a result.

Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher believes the core of his team is still good enough to contend and will go into this offseason with an eye on a quick turnaround.  Trotz is the type of coach that could them back to the playoffs so they’ll be in the mix.  Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has talked about wanting more defensive structure so they’ll kick the tires as well although Jim Montgomery still feels like the best fit to me.  With Rick Bowness stepping down in Dallas, I’m sure they’ll also have interest although I’m not sure ownership will want to pay what it will cost to bring Trotz in.

The big wild card here is Winnipeg.  Trotz is a Winnipeg native and the chance to coach his hometown team has to be appealing.  They’re in a similar situation as Philadelphia in that they have a roster that underachieved but could plausibly get back in the hunt with the right coach.  Speculatively on my part, if Trotz has interest in being a GM down the road, could he sign on as coach for a few years and then potentially move into the front office with Kevin Cheveldayoff moving up to team president (assuming he’s still around by then)?  The Jets probably won’t be able to offer top dollar though.

Basically, every team with an opening is going to at least call.  It wouldn’t surprise me if a team or two that doesn’t have an opening quietly interviews Trotz anyway.  But right now, Vegas seems like the most realistic landing spot with Philadelphia and Winnipeg being in that next tier of options.

Y2KAK: When do the Maple Leafs win a first-round series? 2023? 2025? 2040?

Put me in the crew that thinks this core can still get there soon.  They played a solid series against Tampa Bay and the final game was basically a coin flip.  They didn’t get over the hump but this was far from choking away the series victories they could (and frankly, should) have had in the past.  As a result, I wouldn’t drastically shake things up this summer if I were the Leafs.

If that’s the course that GM Kyle Dubas pursues, then it’s quite possible they get over that hump next year.  Boston may take a step back depending on what happens with their captain, Florida’s roster won’t be as strong as it is now, and Tampa Bay is going to be squeezed by the cap as well.

Nothing is a guarantee and the questions are going to linger throughout the summer and into next season, as they should.  But I’m pretty confident that this core is going to get through a round if it stays together.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that happened next season.

ckw: With the questionable coaching from Hynes and moves by Poile, where do you think the Preds go from here? Two forty-goal scorers, a record season by Josi and a Vezina-caliber goalie in Saros, and an arguable Calder trophy finalist they still could barely squeak into the playoffs.

A commonly-used phrase in sports is when a team is ‘spinning its wheels’.  That’s a sentiment that I think applies pretty well to Nashville.

First things first, I was quite impressed with their season as I didn’t think they’d come close to making the playoffs.  Even though they went out quickly, the fact they even got there surprised me with the moves they made over the summer.

But here’s the thing.  The Predators are good enough to hang around the edge of the playoff mix.  But how much more upside does their core group have?  It’s probably not much, certainly not enough to catapult them into contender status.  But they’re also not in a spot where they can really embrace a rebuild as some of their bigger contracts (Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen) aren’t easy to move.  If Filip Forsberg re-signs, he’ll be in that salary tier as well.

With the two-year extension given to Hynes, it’s a signal that they’re going to stay on this path for the time being.  So where do they go from here?  If Forsberg sticks around, they’re probably bringing a very similar team back to the one that finished this season unless they get the green light to spend closer to the cap ceiling which could allow them to add a player or two.  That will have them either just in the playoffs or just out which is basically where they’ve been the last three years.  They’re in that mushy middle and don’t appear to be changing course.  From a sports perspective, they’re spinning their wheels.

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The first round is complete and many teams are facing significant questions about their future. How do you bounce back from another first-round exit? Which managers and coaches are now on the hot seat? What will happen to those deadline rentals that were unable to provide any postseason push? The offseason is right around the corner and things are starting to get exciting.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. Last time, it was split into two parts. The first included a discussion about Ryan Ellis’ future in Philadelphia, Evander Kane’s ongoing grievance with the Sharks, and touched on a potential Kevin Fiala offer sheet. The second looked at Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, the mess that the Golden Knights find themselves in, and some buyout candidates for this summer.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and we will try to answer as many questions as possible.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the disappointing season for the Golden Knights, possible buyout candidates this summer, Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

dayvisferreras: How big will the changes be in Vegas?? Vegas should be making big changes and stop creating greener pastures for shiny new toys. I appreciate Bill Foley’s vision but he shouldn’t add more salary to a team with no cap.

Gbear: Simply put, have you ever seen a team choke down the stretch as badly as Vegas did and do you see DeBoer getting fired after this season?

DirtbagBlues: Is Robin Lehner with the Golden Knights next season?

Let’s dig right in with some Vegas talk.

I don’t expect anywhere near the amount of change for next season for the Golden Knights that some do.  Part of that is the salary cap as obviously, they need to clear some money.  Evgenii Dadonov is probably going somewhere and Reilly Smith is a potential cap casualty as a pending UFA.  Mattias Janmark likely isn’t back as well.  If they can avoid taking a contract back in a Dadonov trade, that’s $5MM in savings from next year’s commitments, most of which can be allocated to the three forwards needed to fill those roster spots with a bit left over to apply to Nicolas Roy’s next contract.

Vegas can more or less force their way into a one-year deal for Nicolas Hague as the blueliner doesn’t have arbitration rights.  Accordingly, they don’t necessarily have to make a move on the back end.  I expect they’ll try to move Laurent Brossoit in order to give Logan Thompson the full-time backup job, saving another $1.55MM in cap room.  That’s enough to cover the one-year/no-leverage contract for Hague with the rest going to Roy.  Ben Hutton ($850K) can be waived in a pinch and when all is said and done, that’s a team with no flexibility once again but it’d be cap-compliant.  This is the path they’ve chosen to go and I don’t think they’ll deviate from it even after a tough end to their season.

I hesitate to put the word ‘choke’ on their collapse.  Yes, it’s substantial and over the last few seasons, I can’t think of another team that prominent falling out like that.  But they were also missing a lot of players.  Yes, some of that was by design but Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone being injured wasn’t part of the plan and both of them were far from 100% down the stretch.  They basically had their regular goalie tandem either out or playing at less than 100%.  You take two top-line forwards and a goalie tandem out of a lineup and most of the time, it’s not going to end well.  The Golden Knights created some of their misfortune, no doubt, but they had a lot out of their control go against them as well which is why I can’t call it a choke job.

To be honest, I was a bit underwhelmed when Vegas brought Peter DeBoer in to replace Gerard Gallant.  He doesn’t have a long track record of playoff success but on the other hand, who out there is demonstrably better to lead a win-now, veteran-laden team?  I’d be surprised if he was let go although he’ll also be viewed as someone squarely on the hot seat heading into next season.  Again, they did have some bad luck at the end of the season from a health perspective (and were missing some key pieces throughout the year).  To drastically shake things up based on how things ended this year seems a bit premature as a result.

I do think Lehner returns next season.  The optics surrounding that whole fiasco of him being out for the season but still dressing as backup and being expected at practice was bizarre.  But where else is Vegas going to find a good starting goaltender making $5MM or less for multiple years?  It’s not as if they have a deep prospect pool or extra high draft picks at their disposal either that they could use to trade for someone that’s making a bit less.  If Thompson makes a push for more minutes next season and gets closer to a 50-50 split in terms of playing time, then perhaps at that time Lehner might become available.  But at this moment, I think he’s their starter on opening night.

wreckage: Who is the most likely offseason buyout candidate?

The first name that comes to mind is Predators defenseman Philippe Myers.  His season was nothing short of a disaster and it was telling that after he cleared waivers before the trade deadline (a scenario that seemed unfathomable in the offseason), he was sent to Toronto’s farm team instead of their own.  That’s a pretty clear sign that he’s not in their future plans.  As he’s 25, he’s only subject to a one-third payout instead of the standard two-thirds while the heavily backloaded nature of the contract makes for a rather unique situation.  A buyout of the final season that carries a $2.55MM AAV would give Nashville a cap credit of $617K next season with a cap hit of $633K the following year.  I’m not sure the Predators are the ones that buy him out – perhaps a cap-strapped team views that buyout structure and cap credit as a short-term solution – but I’d be surprised if he’s playing under his current contract next season.

Colin White (three years left, $4.75MM AAV) also quickly came to mind when I saw this question.  We know Montreal had serious trade talks for him at the trade deadline but I can’t help but wonder if it was with the intention of sending a player the other way and then turning around and buying White out in the summer.  He’s also 25 and is thus subject to the one-third cost.  Paying him over six years isn’t ideal but the cap hit for five of those is $875K while the other is a cap credit of $625K.  Whether it’s the Canadiens or someone else, is it worth moving, say, a $3.5MM player to Ottawa for White and then executing the buyout to open up $2.625MM in cap room?    There are a few teams that I suspect would give that some serious thought.

It’s rare that we see a trade and buy out combo (Steve Mason was a somewhat recent example back in 2018) but I think it’s a serious option for those two which puts them at the top of my buyout list.

As for others that could be options under the standard costs, Toronto’s Petr Mrazek (two years remaining, $3.8MM) is certainly an option after the tough year he had.  Even with 50% retention, there may not be any trade takers which could force their hand.  Zack Kassian (two years left, $3.2MM) could be an option if they need to free up money for some of their pending RFAs (more on them shortly).  I’m sure there will be others that get bought out as well once that window opens up after the season.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ryan Ellis’ future with the Flyers, playoff discussion, Evander Kane’s grievance process, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

InFletchWeTrust: Rumors flying around that Ryan Ellis may not want to be in Philly, and that is the reason for the yet-to-be-released nature of the injury that has kept him out all year…if true, sure seems like it just blows up Fletcher’s retooling plan…could we possibly be looking at a season even worse than this one? Who’s gonna take Ellis’ salary on, especially after a four-game season?

I don’t think there’s much to those reports.  Yesterday, Ellis told reporters, including Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that it took visits to several specialists and a wide range of testing before they were finally able to identify the root cause of the injury – a multi-layered one in his pelvic region.  Perhaps the reason that it took so long to identify the injury wasn’t because he wanted out and was being difficult but rather that the injury took a long time to identify?  That makes a lot more sense to me.

Ellis, who also clearly stated his desire to remain in Philadelphia in that same press conference, has been around long enough to recognize that missing 78 games due to injury in a season more or less tanks that person’s trade value.  Even if he wanted out, he’d be smart enough to know that a trade request coming from his situation would almost certainly fall on deaf ears.  It doesn’t matter who could take his salary on – he’s not going anywhere.  He wouldn’t have solved all of the issues for the Flyers this season but a full year from him would really make that back end a lot better.

Nha Trang: Alright, here’s one: what team’s going to be the surprise club that makes an unexpectedly deep postseason run?

My first thought is whoever comes out of the Minnesota-St. Louis series.  Both of those teams are good enough to give Colorado a good run for their money in the second round.  The Avs could get Nashville without Juuse Saros which could be a quick series, giving them a long layoff and with the intensity I expect we’ll see between the Blues and Wild, that could hurt Colorado early in a potential series as they adapt after what could be an easier series against the Predators.  If that’s enough to see Minnesota or St. Louis move on, they’d be going deeper than many expect.

I can’t think of a great option from the East to pick as I don’t really see any big upsets happening in the first round.  If Boston can get by Carolina (which could happen with the Hurricanes dealing with goalie issues of their own), they’d have a good shot at getting out of that side of the bracket which would surprise many but I don’t think we’ll be overly shocked at the results in that conference in the next couple of weeks.

urban shocker: Alternatively, which team is overrated and will fold like a cheap suit?

I’m hesitant to call a team overrated as it’s a good accomplishment to make it to the playoffs.  But if you’re asking me for a team that could be a quick out, Dallas comes to mind.  Teams with a negative goal differential typically don’t fare well in the postseason (although there have been some exceptions) but I don’t think their goaltending is good enough to shut down Calgary’s attack while Jacob Markstrom and Calgary’s back end are quite strong.

In terms of a perceived contender that could go early, Tampa Bay comes to mind.  Yes, they’re the reigning back-to-back champions but that’s actually a main reason why I’m a little leery about them.  They’ve played a ton of games the last two years, playing well into the summer.  We saw this season that the other teams that played deep into the playoffs last year get decimated by injuries (Vegas and Montreal, in particular) and I can’t help but think the Lightning could get caught by that at some point.  Maybe it’s not in the first round but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go out earlier than expected.  Carolina could be in trouble depending on their goaltending situation as well.

W H Twittle: Injuries are a big part of the playoffs. Which teams are less likely to go into a tailspin if one of their top d-men gets injured and which teams are most vulnerable?

As Montreal showed last year, teams can overcome iffy defensive depth (their bottom two defenders hardly played) as long as they have a strong top four.  For me, that means the teams that have strong third pairings with players that can move up are the ones that shouldn’t be hindered as much in that scenario although losing a top rearguard would be problematic for everyone.

In terms of teams that have the strong defensive depth to potentially overcome a top player going down, Colorado comes to mind.  Assuming he stays healthy, Bowen Byram is capable of moving into the top four and their depth defenders (Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray, when healthy) can be counted on.  Boston’s depth is pretty strong as well and while Carolina isn’t as deep, they have five top-four defenders on their roster that would help mitigate the loss.

On the other hand, Nashville’s back end certainly isn’t as deep as it once was and losing one of their better options would be quite costly, especially if it’s coupled with Saros’ uncertainty in goal.  The Kings have already been dealt a tough blow with Drew Doughty’s absence and another core blueliner going down would be quite costly.  In the East, the Rangers look a little vulnerable on that front; I was a bit surprised they didn’t do more on the back end at the deadline beyond adding Justin Braun.  Washington couldn’t afford any upgrades at the deadline but their defense corps would greatly be thinned out with a key player going down as well.

Johnny Z: Is there a chance that Kevin Fiala signs an Offer Sheet? 16 teams could do a 5 x $8M.

You’re correct in that there are that many teams that have the draft picks to do that type of offer sheet but of those, how many have the cap space to do it?  Of those that do, how many are rebuilding and couldn’t really justify parting with three draft picks (a first, second, and a third) to bring Fiala in?  Now we’re dealing with a pretty small list.

Is it possible that he signs an offer sheet?  In theory, sure.  Minnesota’s vulnerable with their cap situation for next season and those are the teams to try to take advantage of.  But I don’t think he’s really a viable candidate for a couple of reasons.

First, I don’t think his situation gets to the point where an offer sheet is an option.  Either he’s traded before the start of free agency or the Wild have opened up the cap space to keep him by moving someone else so I’m not sure he gets to the point where a team could even offer him one.  But for the sake of discussion, let’s say it gets that far.  I think Fiala would be more inclined to file for arbitration and take himself out of the offer sheet picture, get a one-year deal with a big raise, and hit unrestricted free agency in his prime.  There should be more interest in him as a UFA than as an RFA through an offer sheet so why not wait for a stronger market?  An offer sheet could happen but I don’t think Minnesota should be concerned about the possibility.

selanne 76: Assuming that the Jets clean house from a coaching perspective, who comes in as Head Coach to shake up and demand accountability from this leadership group? Will it even be the same leadership group?

Assuming Dave Lowry isn’t back behind the bench next season, this will be one of the biggest decisions of GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s tenure.  This is a team that’s built to win now, not a few years from now.  For me, that’s a strike against most of the first-time head coaching candidates; they need someone who is going to get under their skin quickly and whip them into shape.  A few years from now, the act will wear thin and that will coincide with a likely rebuild.

Writing those sentences out, John Tortorella immediately comes to mind.  He gets buy-in from his teams quickly and isn’t going to put up with the varying levels of effort that plagued the Jets this season.  They need that but I don’t think he’s necessarily the right fit to unlock the offensive potential this group has.  If Vancouver doesn’t get something done with Bruce Boudreau, I like that fit.  Jim Montgomery is someone that’s in between those two.  He has some experience and success running an NHL bench in Dallas, albeit playing low-event hockey that may not be the best for Winnipeg.  But I think he can fix some of the defensive concerns they have and be a fresh voice that this team would certainly benefit from.  I think he’d be a good fit overall for them so I’ll pick him.

I think it will largely be the same core group in place although Mark Scheifele’s comments to reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe postgame today certainly raise some eyebrows.  Cheveldayoff is known to be one of the safer general managers out there and assuming they do bring in a new voice (which could turn into several if there are changes on the bench as well), he may be inclined to think that will be the spark they need.  I lean that way myself, actually.  Winnipeg has a pretty strong core group in place.  A fresh voice and some depth improvement may very well be enough to get them back into the playoff picture next season.

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