PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mathew Dumba and Minnesota’s cap crunch, the Rangers’ center situation beyond this season, Seattle’s underwhelming year, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What is the next step for the Sens. The team has stockpiled a good core of youth (especially on the blue line) but what do they have to do this offseason to take the next step?

The young nucleus for the Senators is pretty strong between Brady Tkachuk, Joshua Norris, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson up front plus Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson on the back end.  Now, they need to upgrade the supporting cast, so to speak.

Defensively, they need a top-four, all situations type of player.  Players like Nick Holden, Nikita Zaitsev, and even trade deadline acquisition Travis Hamonic are serviceable veterans that can raise the floor of their defense corps.  While that’s useful, now GM Pierre Dorion needs to raise the ceiling for this group to take a step forward.  Chabot and Sanderson plus Artem Zub and Erik Brannstrom have some room to grow but with the right veterans, they’ll get there faster.

Up front, the top line is pretty much set with Tkachuk, Norris, and Batherson.  But Stutzle’s linemates aren’t as consistent or anywhere near as good.  Connor Brown is a good veteran but he’s not a big scorer while Alex Formenton’s speed is high-end but his scoring isn’t.  Upgrading one (or if you want to aim big, both) of those spots would really deepen the offense.

On top of that, a goalie upgrade would help them take a step forward.  Anton Forsberg isn’t a true starter, Matt Murray has underachieved, and Filip Gustavsson may not be ready for a full-time NHL roster spot (although waiver eligibility will probably keep him up).

That’s a huge wish list but adding any of those elements will help them get back to at least realistically battling for a playoff spot next season.  That would be a good next step for Ottawa who isn’t really in a position to go from a bottom-feeder to a contender overnight unless Dorion manages to have the offseason of a lifetime and hit on all of these areas.

DarkSide830: With his name in past rumors and MIN needing to make a move, I wonder, can PHI make a move for Dumba? They need to get better on the back end and he could be available for 80 cents on the dollar with MIN’s crunch. I presume they need to move out a JVR then. Can they move enough of JVR’s cap without having to give someone a pick with it so they can reasonably fit Dumba in?

While I agree that Minnesota has a cap crunch, I disagree that they will make someone like Dumba available for 80 cents on the dollar.  Yes, everyone knows they need to clear money but whoever goes – Dumba or Kevin Fiala (who’d fit one of those holes in Ottawa we just went over) – there will be enough demand that they’ll be able to get full value.  Let’s say it’s Dumba.  The UFA market for impact defensemen isn’t the deepest and Dumba’s cap hit is lower than what players like Kris Letang and John Klingberg are going to get.  That bodes well for maximizing trade value, even with their hand being forced.

As for James van Riemsdyk, they’re not going to get much cap relief in a trade unless they send a pick with him.  If I was an acquiring team, I’m pointing at the Patrick Marleau to Carolina trade as a benchmark; that move cost Toronto a first-rounder.  Is it possible that they flip him for another underachieving veteran that makes a little less?  Sure.  That is definitely a plausible option.  But will they save enough to fit Dumba’s $6MM in?  Nope.  Frankly, I’m not sure they’d save more on the cap next season than if they bought him out ($4.33MM cap charge) with a trade.

And if I’m Philadelphia GM Chuck Fletcher, notwithstanding the van Riemsdyk thing, do I really want to part with the first-round pick and/or a top young asset that it will probably take to get into the bidding to acquire Dumba?  That’s not a smart strategy for a non-playoff team, even if it’s a core he thinks is better than it has shown.  Once you do factor in the likely cost to offload van Riemsdyk’s contract for cap relief on top of the acquisition cost, the price for Dumba is one they shouldn’t be willing to pay.

Bill Blueshirt: The NYR need a 2C next year while being in a cap squeeze. Strome seems unaffordable. Do they a) sign Copp, b) go with Chytil and backfill at 3C, c) trade some of their many prospects for a C (and who would that be), or d) ???

I’m not convinced the bidding for Ryan Strome is going to be super high this summer.  Yes, he has put up impressive numbers the last couple of seasons but he was doing that with Artemi Panarin on the wing a good chunk of the time.  But his history before getting to New York was spotty at best and I’m confident there are general managers out there who will be hesitant to commit a big contract to him this summer.

I’m not saying there won’t be a good market for him but I wouldn’t be shocked if his AAV winds up being close to where Andrew Copp’s lands.  If that’s the case, I don’t think Strome re-signing can easily be ruled out.

Do they need to free up some money?  Probably.  I wonder if they try to find a taker for Patrik Nemeth and take a cheaper player back to give them some wiggle room.  But if they go with some cheap end-of-roster options and make a small cap-clearing move or two (Alexandar Georgiev being another one), I think they can cobble enough together to make an intermediate type of offer that could be enough to keep one of Copp or Strome in the fold.  So, to answer your question, I’ll pick either a or d.

FearTheWilson: In your opinion who are the most underrated players in the league?

This is always a hard question to answer as underrated can be interpreted in a few different contexts.  I could rhyme off some names that some of you may not be familiar with that are actually important players and that would qualify as underrated.  But I suspect you’re looking for more prominent names so I’ll go with those.

Quick, think of an impact center on the Blues.  No, not Ryan O’Reilly.  Not Brayden Schenn either who, for many, would be the second one that comes to mind with his contract.  Meanwhile, all Robert Thomas did this season was lead their centers in scoring while logging nearly 19 minutes a night.  He was an impact offensive player in junior and while it has taken a few years for him to truly become an impact player in the NHL, he’s there, even if he doesn’t immediately come to mind when St. Louis centers are being discussed.

Roope Hintz is a player that many are familiar with.  If you were thinking to yourself that he’s a good secondary scorer, it’d certainly be understandable.  When digging into this question, that’s where I was leaning.  But he averaged over a point per game last year and followed that up with 37 goals and 35 assists this season, finishing tied for 20th in the league in goals.  That’s not a good secondary scorer, that’s a higher-end primary player who, by the way, spends a lot of time at center after coming up as a winger a few years ago.  He definitely fits the bill of being underrated.

As for a defenseman, the first one that came to mind was Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson.  He showed flashes of offensive upside over his first few NHL seasons but found another gear this season as he very quickly reached the 50-point mark.  But he isn’t just a slick-skating, offensive defender.  He takes a regular turn on the penalty kill and is trusted in all situations while leading the Flames in ice time.  Despite all of that, if I ran a poll of what type of blueliner he is, I think a ‘good number four’ would probably win out.  He’s much more than that; Andersson is quietly pushing for lower-end number one territory.

I’ll add a goalie to the list as well in Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin.  His delayed arrival in North America has resulted in limited exposure; he has played in just 74 career NHL games.  On top of that, New York had a season to forget as they were out of contention early.  But Sorokin very quietly was second in the league in save percentage this season (.925) and fourth in goals against average (2.40), impressive numbers for a non-playoff team.  If he puts up similar numbers next season and the Isles rebound in the standings, Sorokin will be in the discussion for the Vezina Trophy.  But when it comes to thinking of top NHL goaltenders, his name often doesn’t come up.

trak2k: If the Kraken do not “do anything” in free agency and or struggle at the beginning of next season do they fire the GM?

I don’t think there’s any chance of a GM change in Seattle within the next year.  When the Kraken chose their roster in expansion, it became more than evident that they were planning a longer-scale build.  In other words, they were going to have the development curve of a traditional expansion team.  That results in losing seasons early on.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Ron Francis did a particularly good job in assembling his roster in expansion and even their coaching choice was underwhelming.  But he got the green light to build this way.  To turn around and go back on that this early doesn’t seem like a likely outcome.

If I was Francis, I wouldn’t be overly active in free agency this summer.  With so many teams in cap trouble, they’re ripe for the picking in terms of adding extra picks and prospects in exchange for taking on an unwanted contract or two, improving their future, and probably helping the current team in the process.  Basically, do what they didn’t do a year ago.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Barry Trotz’s market, Toronto’s early playoff exit, what’s next for Nashville, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

M34: With a pretty strong young core and some team-friendly veteran contracts with plenty of room to spare, which UFA goalie does NJ pursue?  Kuemper?  Fleury?

Non-tendered: Another one regarding the Devils — It appears as if they have the assets and cap space to acquire an elite goaltender, which many believe is their biggest need. Is the notion of needing an elite goaltender done? The Oilers are primed to go deep and look at all the goalie problems they’ve had. Carolina is a revolving door of consonants between the pipes. How many elite goalies are there, really? Vasy, Shesterkin, Bob?

I’d prefer the Devils to shore up the netminder for 7+ years to come, but I’m not sure Kuemper, Gibson, or Husso are the ones. Who do the Devils look to to improve the goalie situation and what do they with all their assets?

I had a similar question in a mailbag last month so I won’t dig too deep into who they go after.  But I think the Devils are going to have a hard time making themselves attractive to veterans like Darcy Kuemper and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Kuemper is on a top team with a chance for a long playoff run.  To turn around and go to a team that has consistently been out of the playoffs for a while would be surprising.  As for Fleury, he’s near the end of his career.  He wants to win or play where he’s comfortable.  I don’t think New Jersey fits either situation.

The UFA I think they go after is Ville Husso.  They have the cap space to go higher on the AAV than most teams will so why not go for some upside?  There’s some risk but if they offset that with a capable 1B option (I suggested a trade for Boston’s Linus Ullmark in that previous mailbag assuming he’s willing to waive his no-move protection), the risk would be mitigated to an extent.  That would give them a capable tandem with a big of upside and some certainty; Ullmark is signed for three years and Husso will probably get that long or more.  Some stability between the pipes certainly wouldn’t hurt.  I also don’t think they’d need to part with any significant asset to get Ullmark from the Bruins.

Now to circle back to the question that’s sort of sandwiched by what New Jersey should do.  You make a good point in that there are few elite goalies in the league and of the three you suggested, I wouldn’t put Sergei Bobrovsky in that category.  (If you want a darkhorse candidate for who’s in net for New Jersey next year, it’s him in a cap dump from Florida if they can get him to waive his no-move clause.)  Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin are definitely in there and Juuse Saros has a chance to get into that group.  But in terms of elite, that’s about it.

Teams are beginning to embrace the platoon option more and more now which makes sense if they don’t have an elite or at least a higher-end starter.  It’s more cost-efficient and is a better hedge against in-season injuries.  New Jersey has tried to go that way the last couple of years and will likely stay on that path moving forward.

Johnny Z: NJ hinted at trading #2 OA. Do you think it could be offered for a player such as Fiala or Willie Nylander?

The speculation about New Jersey’s openness to move their first-round pick came before the Draft Lottery when their pick sat fifth and could drop as low as seventh.  Things have changed since then with them winning the second draw, giving them the second pick.  Now, they have a chance to get a core piece in the draft, either a winger like Juraj Slafkovsky or a defenseman like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek (assuming Montreal takes Shane Wright).  That jump of a few spots really changes the outlook.  If you can get a long-term core piece that should be NHL-ready fairly soon, they’re probably going to be better off keeping the pick.

For me, to even consider trading the pick, I’d want someone either signed or under team control for at least four years, someone that’s going to be part of their long-term core.  William Nylander has two years left on his contract and with how contentious his last contract talks went, there’s little reason to think he’d sign an early extension so there would be a risk to acquiring him in such a move.  It’s possible they could work out a long-term agreement with Kevin Fiala as part of a deal but if management thinks Slafkovsky can produce at a similar level, why not keep the pick and take him instead?

Never say never but there’s a reason teams very seldom trade top picks, let alone trading out of the draft entirely.  They’ll certainly listen to what’s out there but I’d be surprised if that trend changes with the Devils this summer.

2012 orioles: What are the most realistic destinations for Trotz?

Player free agency doesn’t happen for a couple more months but coaching free agency just got a whole lot more interesting when Lou Lamoriello made Barry Trotz available.  He’s probably going to wind up with a raise on the $4MM that he was getting with New York (and is still owed until he finds a new team) and plenty of job security in the form of a long-term deal.

In terms of who is a realistic fit for him, Vegas is the first team that comes to mind.  They’ve set the bar high and Trotz is a coach that has plenty of pedigree and a good playoff track record.  Both of those appeal to an organization like the Golden Knights.  And if the Golden Knights are worried about how things went down with Robin Lehner down the stretch, what better move could they make by bringing in his coach from his best NHL season (2018-19)?  He’s a splashy hire and would give them a boost while they have the willingness to spend big to get him.  I’d handicap them as the top contender as a result.

Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher believes the core of his team is still good enough to contend and will go into this offseason with an eye on a quick turnaround.  Trotz is the type of coach that could them back to the playoffs so they’ll be in the mix.  Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has talked about wanting more defensive structure so they’ll kick the tires as well although Jim Montgomery still feels like the best fit to me.  With Rick Bowness stepping down in Dallas, I’m sure they’ll also have interest although I’m not sure ownership will want to pay what it will cost to bring Trotz in.

The big wild card here is Winnipeg.  Trotz is a Winnipeg native and the chance to coach his hometown team has to be appealing.  They’re in a similar situation as Philadelphia in that they have a roster that underachieved but could plausibly get back in the hunt with the right coach.  Speculatively on my part, if Trotz has interest in being a GM down the road, could he sign on as coach for a few years and then potentially move into the front office with Kevin Cheveldayoff moving up to team president (assuming he’s still around by then)?  The Jets probably won’t be able to offer top dollar though.

Basically, every team with an opening is going to at least call.  It wouldn’t surprise me if a team or two that doesn’t have an opening quietly interviews Trotz anyway.  But right now, Vegas seems like the most realistic landing spot with Philadelphia and Winnipeg being in that next tier of options.

Y2KAK: When do the Maple Leafs win a first-round series? 2023? 2025? 2040?

Put me in the crew that thinks this core can still get there soon.  They played a solid series against Tampa Bay and the final game was basically a coin flip.  They didn’t get over the hump but this was far from choking away the series victories they could (and frankly, should) have had in the past.  As a result, I wouldn’t drastically shake things up this summer if I were the Leafs.

If that’s the course that GM Kyle Dubas pursues, then it’s quite possible they get over that hump next year.  Boston may take a step back depending on what happens with their captain, Florida’s roster won’t be as strong as it is now, and Tampa Bay is going to be squeezed by the cap as well.

Nothing is a guarantee and the questions are going to linger throughout the summer and into next season, as they should.  But I’m pretty confident that this core is going to get through a round if it stays together.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that happened next season.

ckw: With the questionable coaching from Hynes and moves by Poile, where do you think the Preds go from here? Two forty-goal scorers, a record season by Josi and a Vezina-caliber goalie in Saros, and an arguable Calder trophy finalist they still could barely squeak into the playoffs.

A commonly-used phrase in sports is when a team is ‘spinning its wheels’.  That’s a sentiment that I think applies pretty well to Nashville.

First things first, I was quite impressed with their season as I didn’t think they’d come close to making the playoffs.  Even though they went out quickly, the fact they even got there surprised me with the moves they made over the summer.

But here’s the thing.  The Predators are good enough to hang around the edge of the playoff mix.  But how much more upside does their core group have?  It’s probably not much, certainly not enough to catapult them into contender status.  But they’re also not in a spot where they can really embrace a rebuild as some of their bigger contracts (Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen) aren’t easy to move.  If Filip Forsberg re-signs, he’ll be in that salary tier as well.

With the two-year extension given to Hynes, it’s a signal that they’re going to stay on this path for the time being.  So where do they go from here?  If Forsberg sticks around, they’re probably bringing a very similar team back to the one that finished this season unless they get the green light to spend closer to the cap ceiling which could allow them to add a player or two.  That will have them either just in the playoffs or just out which is basically where they’ve been the last three years.  They’re in that mushy middle and don’t appear to be changing course.  From a sports perspective, they’re spinning their wheels.

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The first round is complete and many teams are facing significant questions about their future. How do you bounce back from another first-round exit? Which managers and coaches are now on the hot seat? What will happen to those deadline rentals that were unable to provide any postseason push? The offseason is right around the corner and things are starting to get exciting.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. Last time, it was split into two parts. The first included a discussion about Ryan Ellis’ future in Philadelphia, Evander Kane’s ongoing grievance with the Sharks, and touched on a potential Kevin Fiala offer sheet. The second looked at Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, the mess that the Golden Knights find themselves in, and some buyout candidates for this summer.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and we will try to answer as many questions as possible.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the disappointing season for the Golden Knights, possible buyout candidates this summer, Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

dayvisferreras: How big will the changes be in Vegas?? Vegas should be making big changes and stop creating greener pastures for shiny new toys. I appreciate Bill Foley’s vision but he shouldn’t add more salary to a team with no cap.

Gbear: Simply put, have you ever seen a team choke down the stretch as badly as Vegas did and do you see DeBoer getting fired after this season?

DirtbagBlues: Is Robin Lehner with the Golden Knights next season?

Let’s dig right in with some Vegas talk.

I don’t expect anywhere near the amount of change for next season for the Golden Knights that some do.  Part of that is the salary cap as obviously, they need to clear some money.  Evgenii Dadonov is probably going somewhere and Reilly Smith is a potential cap casualty as a pending UFA.  Mattias Janmark likely isn’t back as well.  If they can avoid taking a contract back in a Dadonov trade, that’s $5MM in savings from next year’s commitments, most of which can be allocated to the three forwards needed to fill those roster spots with a bit left over to apply to Nicolas Roy’s next contract.

Vegas can more or less force their way into a one-year deal for Nicolas Hague as the blueliner doesn’t have arbitration rights.  Accordingly, they don’t necessarily have to make a move on the back end.  I expect they’ll try to move Laurent Brossoit in order to give Logan Thompson the full-time backup job, saving another $1.55MM in cap room.  That’s enough to cover the one-year/no-leverage contract for Hague with the rest going to Roy.  Ben Hutton ($850K) can be waived in a pinch and when all is said and done, that’s a team with no flexibility once again but it’d be cap-compliant.  This is the path they’ve chosen to go and I don’t think they’ll deviate from it even after a tough end to their season.

I hesitate to put the word ‘choke’ on their collapse.  Yes, it’s substantial and over the last few seasons, I can’t think of another team that prominent falling out like that.  But they were also missing a lot of players.  Yes, some of that was by design but Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone being injured wasn’t part of the plan and both of them were far from 100% down the stretch.  They basically had their regular goalie tandem either out or playing at less than 100%.  You take two top-line forwards and a goalie tandem out of a lineup and most of the time, it’s not going to end well.  The Golden Knights created some of their misfortune, no doubt, but they had a lot out of their control go against them as well which is why I can’t call it a choke job.

To be honest, I was a bit underwhelmed when Vegas brought Peter DeBoer in to replace Gerard Gallant.  He doesn’t have a long track record of playoff success but on the other hand, who out there is demonstrably better to lead a win-now, veteran-laden team?  I’d be surprised if he was let go although he’ll also be viewed as someone squarely on the hot seat heading into next season.  Again, they did have some bad luck at the end of the season from a health perspective (and were missing some key pieces throughout the year).  To drastically shake things up based on how things ended this year seems a bit premature as a result.

I do think Lehner returns next season.  The optics surrounding that whole fiasco of him being out for the season but still dressing as backup and being expected at practice was bizarre.  But where else is Vegas going to find a good starting goaltender making $5MM or less for multiple years?  It’s not as if they have a deep prospect pool or extra high draft picks at their disposal either that they could use to trade for someone that’s making a bit less.  If Thompson makes a push for more minutes next season and gets closer to a 50-50 split in terms of playing time, then perhaps at that time Lehner might become available.  But at this moment, I think he’s their starter on opening night.

wreckage: Who is the most likely offseason buyout candidate?

The first name that comes to mind is Predators defenseman Philippe Myers.  His season was nothing short of a disaster and it was telling that after he cleared waivers before the trade deadline (a scenario that seemed unfathomable in the offseason), he was sent to Toronto’s farm team instead of their own.  That’s a pretty clear sign that he’s not in their future plans.  As he’s 25, he’s only subject to a one-third payout instead of the standard two-thirds while the heavily backloaded nature of the contract makes for a rather unique situation.  A buyout of the final season that carries a $2.55MM AAV would give Nashville a cap credit of $617K next season with a cap hit of $633K the following year.  I’m not sure the Predators are the ones that buy him out – perhaps a cap-strapped team views that buyout structure and cap credit as a short-term solution – but I’d be surprised if he’s playing under his current contract next season.

Colin White (three years left, $4.75MM AAV) also quickly came to mind when I saw this question.  We know Montreal had serious trade talks for him at the trade deadline but I can’t help but wonder if it was with the intention of sending a player the other way and then turning around and buying White out in the summer.  He’s also 25 and is thus subject to the one-third cost.  Paying him over six years isn’t ideal but the cap hit for five of those is $875K while the other is a cap credit of $625K.  Whether it’s the Canadiens or someone else, is it worth moving, say, a $3.5MM player to Ottawa for White and then executing the buyout to open up $2.625MM in cap room?    There are a few teams that I suspect would give that some serious thought.

It’s rare that we see a trade and buy out combo (Steve Mason was a somewhat recent example back in 2018) but I think it’s a serious option for those two which puts them at the top of my buyout list.

As for others that could be options under the standard costs, Toronto’s Petr Mrazek (two years remaining, $3.8MM) is certainly an option after the tough year he had.  Even with 50% retention, there may not be any trade takers which could force their hand.  Zack Kassian (two years left, $3.2MM) could be an option if they need to free up money for some of their pending RFAs (more on them shortly).  I’m sure there will be others that get bought out as well once that window opens up after the season.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ryan Ellis’ future with the Flyers, playoff discussion, Evander Kane’s grievance process, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

InFletchWeTrust: Rumors flying around that Ryan Ellis may not want to be in Philly, and that is the reason for the yet-to-be-released nature of the injury that has kept him out all year…if true, sure seems like it just blows up Fletcher’s retooling plan…could we possibly be looking at a season even worse than this one? Who’s gonna take Ellis’ salary on, especially after a four-game season?

I don’t think there’s much to those reports.  Yesterday, Ellis told reporters, including Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that it took visits to several specialists and a wide range of testing before they were finally able to identify the root cause of the injury – a multi-layered one in his pelvic region.  Perhaps the reason that it took so long to identify the injury wasn’t because he wanted out and was being difficult but rather that the injury took a long time to identify?  That makes a lot more sense to me.

Ellis, who also clearly stated his desire to remain in Philadelphia in that same press conference, has been around long enough to recognize that missing 78 games due to injury in a season more or less tanks that person’s trade value.  Even if he wanted out, he’d be smart enough to know that a trade request coming from his situation would almost certainly fall on deaf ears.  It doesn’t matter who could take his salary on – he’s not going anywhere.  He wouldn’t have solved all of the issues for the Flyers this season but a full year from him would really make that back end a lot better.

Nha Trang: Alright, here’s one: what team’s going to be the surprise club that makes an unexpectedly deep postseason run?

My first thought is whoever comes out of the Minnesota-St. Louis series.  Both of those teams are good enough to give Colorado a good run for their money in the second round.  The Avs could get Nashville without Juuse Saros which could be a quick series, giving them a long layoff and with the intensity I expect we’ll see between the Blues and Wild, that could hurt Colorado early in a potential series as they adapt after what could be an easier series against the Predators.  If that’s enough to see Minnesota or St. Louis move on, they’d be going deeper than many expect.

I can’t think of a great option from the East to pick as I don’t really see any big upsets happening in the first round.  If Boston can get by Carolina (which could happen with the Hurricanes dealing with goalie issues of their own), they’d have a good shot at getting out of that side of the bracket which would surprise many but I don’t think we’ll be overly shocked at the results in that conference in the next couple of weeks.

urban shocker: Alternatively, which team is overrated and will fold like a cheap suit?

I’m hesitant to call a team overrated as it’s a good accomplishment to make it to the playoffs.  But if you’re asking me for a team that could be a quick out, Dallas comes to mind.  Teams with a negative goal differential typically don’t fare well in the postseason (although there have been some exceptions) but I don’t think their goaltending is good enough to shut down Calgary’s attack while Jacob Markstrom and Calgary’s back end are quite strong.

In terms of a perceived contender that could go early, Tampa Bay comes to mind.  Yes, they’re the reigning back-to-back champions but that’s actually a main reason why I’m a little leery about them.  They’ve played a ton of games the last two years, playing well into the summer.  We saw this season that the other teams that played deep into the playoffs last year get decimated by injuries (Vegas and Montreal, in particular) and I can’t help but think the Lightning could get caught by that at some point.  Maybe it’s not in the first round but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go out earlier than expected.  Carolina could be in trouble depending on their goaltending situation as well.

W H Twittle: Injuries are a big part of the playoffs. Which teams are less likely to go into a tailspin if one of their top d-men gets injured and which teams are most vulnerable?

As Montreal showed last year, teams can overcome iffy defensive depth (their bottom two defenders hardly played) as long as they have a strong top four.  For me, that means the teams that have strong third pairings with players that can move up are the ones that shouldn’t be hindered as much in that scenario although losing a top rearguard would be problematic for everyone.

In terms of teams that have the strong defensive depth to potentially overcome a top player going down, Colorado comes to mind.  Assuming he stays healthy, Bowen Byram is capable of moving into the top four and their depth defenders (Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray, when healthy) can be counted on.  Boston’s depth is pretty strong as well and while Carolina isn’t as deep, they have five top-four defenders on their roster that would help mitigate the loss.

On the other hand, Nashville’s back end certainly isn’t as deep as it once was and losing one of their better options would be quite costly, especially if it’s coupled with Saros’ uncertainty in goal.  The Kings have already been dealt a tough blow with Drew Doughty’s absence and another core blueliner going down would be quite costly.  In the East, the Rangers look a little vulnerable on that front; I was a bit surprised they didn’t do more on the back end at the deadline beyond adding Justin Braun.  Washington couldn’t afford any upgrades at the deadline but their defense corps would greatly be thinned out with a key player going down as well.

Johnny Z: Is there a chance that Kevin Fiala signs an Offer Sheet? 16 teams could do a 5 x $8M.

You’re correct in that there are that many teams that have the draft picks to do that type of offer sheet but of those, how many have the cap space to do it?  Of those that do, how many are rebuilding and couldn’t really justify parting with three draft picks (a first, second, and a third) to bring Fiala in?  Now we’re dealing with a pretty small list.

Is it possible that he signs an offer sheet?  In theory, sure.  Minnesota’s vulnerable with their cap situation for next season and those are the teams to try to take advantage of.  But I don’t think he’s really a viable candidate for a couple of reasons.

First, I don’t think his situation gets to the point where an offer sheet is an option.  Either he’s traded before the start of free agency or the Wild have opened up the cap space to keep him by moving someone else so I’m not sure he gets to the point where a team could even offer him one.  But for the sake of discussion, let’s say it gets that far.  I think Fiala would be more inclined to file for arbitration and take himself out of the offer sheet picture, get a one-year deal with a big raise, and hit unrestricted free agency in his prime.  There should be more interest in him as a UFA than as an RFA through an offer sheet so why not wait for a stronger market?  An offer sheet could happen but I don’t think Minnesota should be concerned about the possibility.

selanne 76: Assuming that the Jets clean house from a coaching perspective, who comes in as Head Coach to shake up and demand accountability from this leadership group? Will it even be the same leadership group?

Assuming Dave Lowry isn’t back behind the bench next season, this will be one of the biggest decisions of GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s tenure.  This is a team that’s built to win now, not a few years from now.  For me, that’s a strike against most of the first-time head coaching candidates; they need someone who is going to get under their skin quickly and whip them into shape.  A few years from now, the act will wear thin and that will coincide with a likely rebuild.

Writing those sentences out, John Tortorella immediately comes to mind.  He gets buy-in from his teams quickly and isn’t going to put up with the varying levels of effort that plagued the Jets this season.  They need that but I don’t think he’s necessarily the right fit to unlock the offensive potential this group has.  If Vancouver doesn’t get something done with Bruce Boudreau, I like that fit.  Jim Montgomery is someone that’s in between those two.  He has some experience and success running an NHL bench in Dallas, albeit playing low-event hockey that may not be the best for Winnipeg.  But I think he can fix some of the defensive concerns they have and be a fresh voice that this team would certainly benefit from.  I think he’d be a good fit overall for them so I’ll pick him.

I think it will largely be the same core group in place although Mark Scheifele’s comments to reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe postgame today certainly raise some eyebrows.  Cheveldayoff is known to be one of the safer general managers out there and assuming they do bring in a new voice (which could turn into several if there are changes on the bench as well), he may be inclined to think that will be the spark they need.  I lean that way myself, actually.  Winnipeg has a pretty strong core group in place.  A fresh voice and some depth improvement may very well be enough to get them back into the playoff picture next season.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include early award predictions, an assessment of Nazem Kadri’s pending free agency, surplus depth for the Kings, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

NHATrang: How about some predictions for the major trophies: Hart, Norris, Vezina, Selke?

Hart Trophy – Auston Matthews (Toronto) – With there being several quality candidates, a strong finish could give someone the boost to get the award.  Right now, Matthews is having quite the strong finish to his season and has a good chance at hitting 60 goals.  That should make him the front-runner.

Norris Trophy – Roman Josi (Nashville) – There’s a very good case to make for Colorado’s Cale Makar but Josi has the better offensive numbers and whether we like it or not, that will stand out to some voters.  I think what also will help Josi is that the Predators weren’t expected to be a playoff threat while the Avs have been viewed as contenders all season.  Josi helping lead Nashville into the thick of the playoff race will carry some weight.

Vezina Trophy – Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) – He’s first in the NHL in save percentage (.935) and second in goals against average (2.10) and while he hasn’t had quite as high of a workload as some other starters, he has played enough that it won’t be held against him.  It’s his to lose down the stretch.

Selke Trophy – Patrice Bergeron (Boston) – He still is elite at faceoffs, his possession numbers are elite, he kills penalties, and still contributes at a top-line level.  He hasn’t won in four years but has been a finalist each time and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the mix.  If some writers think this could be his final year as some have speculated, that could garner him a few first-place votes as well from those who may want to send him off on top.

Tim Wilson: Much has been made of the poor performance of Seattle’s goaltending tandem in their first season. I’m wondering how the Kraken’s team defensive stats such as shots allowed compare to Grubauer and Driedger’s 20/21 teams, Colorado and Florida.

Seattle is only allowing 29.1 shots per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the entire league and second-fewest in the Western Conference.  They’re trying to play a defensively responsible style knowing that they don’t have the firepower to win and have done a decent job at doing so.  For comparison, Colorado last year was tops in the league at just 25.4 while Florida was in the middle of the pack at 30.0.

A lot of their struggles simply stem from poor goaltending.  Philipp Grubauer is dead last among qualifying goaltenders at -29.9 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck.  That’s just in 50 games too, or 0.6 extra per game on average than he should be allowing.  How many more wins would Seattle have if he was strictly middle of the pack hovering around the zero mark in that stat?  They wouldn’t be a playoff team but they wouldn’t be battling for the top draft lottery odds either.  Chris Driedger has done better at -1.1 goals saved above expected so he’s basically average on that front.

If you’re looking for some reason for optimism, Grubauer has been a good goalie for a while now and it’s not as if he somehow forgot how to play the position upon signing with Seattle.  I’m confident he’ll be a lot better next season.  Probably not enough to get them into the playoffs – they have a long way to go before that happens – but their goaltending shouldn’t be anywhere near this level in 2022-23.

Y2KAK: Early top FA predictions please!!!

This is a tough one to answer right now in that the season isn’t over yet so there’s still the potential for some fluctuation in players’ values.  Personally, I don’t dig in too much into the UFA group in terms of fits and potential contracts until we start working on our annual Top 50 UFA post which is still more than two months away.  But here’s a very quick overview of some of the bigger names.

Johnny Gaudreau – Re-signs in Calgary.  Matthew Tkachuk’s pending RFA contract will definitely make this a tough squeeze but there’s a way to make it work if they go with a lot of minimum-salary players to round out the roster.

Nazem Kadri – I’ll look at him in more detail shortly but I don’t see him staying with Colorado.

Filip Forsberg – Re-signs with Nashville.  There’s mutual interest in getting a deal done and while it’s going to contain elements the Predators don’t like (signing bonuses and trade protection), they won’t let that ultimately nix a new contract.

Penguins – Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang re-sign, Bryan Rust moves on.  Malkin winds up a little lower than his current AAV while Letang is a bit higher.  If they could find a way to move Jason Zucker without taking salary back, they might be able to take a late run at Rust as well.

Patrice Bergeron – Re-signs with Boston.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they go year-to-year from here on out, allowing for some creativity in terms of salary and performance bonus structure.

Claude Giroux – He’s not re-signing with Florida, that’s pretty much a given.  There seems to be a bit of smoke with his hometown Senators and that would make a lot of sense as that team needs an impact veteran to really round out their improving forward group.

John Klingberg – I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas eventually worked out a deal with him but for now, I’ll say he moves on.  If Detroit is ready to flip the switch and go for it, I think they’ll be seriously in the mix at least.

Ville Husso – I pegged him to New Jersey in a hypothetical scenario in last weekend’s mailbag so I’ll stick with them.

M34: What are Kadri’s next contract terms and which team gives it to him?

Boy, did Kadri ever pick a good time for a career year.  He sits 13th in league scoring heading into today’s action and, perhaps more notably, sixth above centers.  What better way to argue that he’s capable of being a top pivot than by being among the top-scoring middlemen in the league.

That said, I don’t he’s going to be able to command the type of deal that a top-producing center typically would.  He’ll be 32 when next season starts so there will be concern about a drop-off occurring sooner than later.  His previous career high in points is 61 so it’s not as if there’s a track record of him scoring like this.  Plus, there’s his lengthy suspension history – six in total.  At this point, the suspensions are getting more severe each time to the point where his next one could be in the double-digits.  That will make some teams hesitant.

In spite of all that, he’s heading for a nice contract.  His maximum term, assuming it’s not Colorado that re-signs him, is seven years and while teams may not want to sign him for that long, that final year or two could be used to smooth out the AAV a little bit.  So I’ll say he gets the max-term with a seven-year deal with an AAV around $8MM.  I don’t think he’ll be worth that contract in the end but he plays a premium position which will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned concerns.

W H Twittle: What can the L.A. Kings be expected to do with their prospects who are mostly RDs or Cs? Cs can be moved to the wings if they can score. But moving defensemen to their wrong side is seldom a good move. Do they start looking to trade a few prospects this summer or before the draft for the players they feel will help them next year?

While it isn’t ideal to have defensemen on their wrong side, it’s quite common.  Most NHL teams have at least one blueliner on his off-side in each game.  It’s usually a lefty on the right but it’s not implausible that a righty can go on the left if need be.  I’m also not convinced it’s a logjam they need to deal with right now.  Jordan Spence could plausibly be back in the minors, leaving Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Sean Durzi as the three that break camp.  It’s not a situation that necessarily has to be dealt with in the near future.

As for their center situation, I agree that some can move to the wing but that is a short-term solution.  Potential impact centers are always in high demand but the Kings could run the risk of devaluing them if they stay on the wing for too long.  If they’re shifting towards win-now mode, yes, moving some of that surplus could make sense.  The question is who to move.  They probably don’t want to move Alex Turcotte while Gabriel Vilardi and Lias Andersson have seen their value dip; Rasmus Kupari has had a nice year in a depth role but his value isn’t sky-high.  If they think Turcotte still could be a top center a few years from now, that could make Quinton Byfield the one to watch for if they want to move a promising youngster for a shorter-term difference-maker.

The Duke: All-knowing and -seeing MB Crystal Ball, please weigh in on the following queries: 1. How do the SJS and Preds’ goaltending shake out next season and the next few years? 2. Career trajectories for Mssrs Zadina & Sandin (are either on new teams soon)? 3. And finally, what team does John Gibson suit up for next season? As always, much thanks.

1) Let’s look at San Jose first.  Obviously, they need to move a goalie this summer.  My guess is that it’s James Reimer as whoever is GM at that time will likely want to give the two younger goals (Adin Hill and Kaapo Kahkonen) a longer look.  They’re both 25 at the moment and in a perfect world, that’s their tandem for the foreseeable future.  They don’t have a top goalie prospect in their system and as they have several high-priced contracts for a while, they need to go with cheaper options.  A platoon costing somewhere between $6MM to $7MM combined would help so I expect those two will be given a chance to be longer-term options.

As for Nashville, theirs is a little easier to predict.  I don’t see anyone supplanting Juuse Saros as the starter as long as Saros is under contract which is through the 2024-25 season.  By then, Yaroslav Askarov should be NHL-ready.  They’ll need a bridge backup for a couple of years – someone like Reimer would make a lot of sense, to be honest – but there will be several of those available in free agency each year so they could just look to go year-to-year with low-cost options.

2) Filip Zadina – I have my doubts that he’ll be able to live up to his draft billing and become the top-line winger many felt he had the potential to be.  That said, he certainly has some offensive talent which will keep him in the league for a while.  I could see him being a player who hovers around 40-50 points most years (slightly higher at times) and bounces between the second and third lines.  That’s a pretty good career trajectory overall even if it’s a bit underwhelming relative to where he was picked.  As for being on a new team in the somewhat near future, I think there’s a good chance that happens.

Rasmus Sandin – I’ve talked about him in the past and I don’t see him being a high-end point-getter in the NHL.  To me, he projects as a secondary offensive threat, someone that will have a floor of 25 points every year and could creep up over 40 in a good year.  I also see no reason why Toronto would want to move him anytime soon, they need cost-controllable blueliners and he’ll be that for a little while yet, even through his first (and possibly second) trip through restricted free agency.

3) Unless Gibson wants out and makes it known, I have no reason to think it won’t be Anaheim.  If you go back and look at the trade market for good goalies, the word underwhelming comes to mind.  When was the last time an above average goalie that was signed for several more seasons was moved for a return that made you think ‘wow, that’s a really good trade’?  Certainly not lately.  If the options are either take an underwhelming return or hold onto Gibson, the latter path is the right way to go for them.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Philadelphia, Shea Weber’s contract, guessing the future of New Jersey’s goaltending, an overview of how long teams can hold the rights to a prospect, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

FearTheWilson: The Islanders have one of the oldest teams in the league, limited cap space, lack scoring depth, and need to sign some defensemen this summer. Is there any way out of this mess or will they be just another team who came close but couldn’t win?

Based on GM Lou Lamoriello’s recent extensions, the plan to get out of their struggles is to double down on the current core.  I get why as the core group is decent, Ilya Sorokin is a solid goalie and the way they play works in the playoffs.  With a more normal schedule that doesn’t involve a 13-game road trip to start the season that’s followed by a particularly rough COVID outbreak, they very well could have been in the mix.

They can save some money if they can find a suitable trade for Semyon Varlamov and find a cheaper backup which would allow them to put a couple million or so into their back end (or another offensive forward), that would help.  And with Noah Dobson being the only impact player that needs a new contract, they will have a bit of wiggle room to try to upgrade the roster.

In Lamoriello’s eyes at least, the solution is a couple of roster improvements and stability.  If they get that, then they should be in the Wild Card mix and as we’ve seen, if they can get into the playoffs in 2023 with the group they have and the way they play, they could win a round or two.

Black Ace57: What is the Flyers’ plan? They haven’t really established a core ready to contend and they don’t want to rebuild.

In Fletch We Trust: Thoughts on Flyers HC for next year? Is Chuck gonna stick with Yeo? Or does he (I hope) see the need to go outside the organization and find someone to help change the culture?

Let’s combine the Flyers questions.  The second part of the first question actually is the framework for their plan.  To me, it seems like they think they have enough quality core pieces in place to be a playoff-caliber team.  Make a couple of tweaks, hope for some better luck with injuries (Ryan Ellis and Sean Couturier in particular), and they could very well be in the thick of a Wild Card battle a year from now.  I know things haven’t gone well lately but I look at that team on paper and think it has the potential to be a lot more competitive than they’ve shown this season.

I’m particularly interested to see what happens in free agency.  Do they find a way to clear James van Riemsdyk’s deal off the roster and try to go after a big fish to basically replace Claude Giroux?  I suspect that is their intention and if they can find a way to add another core piece, their fortunes could turn around fairly quickly.  Not to the point of being a contender, mind you, but their approach feels like the target is simply to get to the playoffs and a few tweaks could theoretically be enough to get them there.

Speaking of tweaks, I expect this will be one of them.  I’d be surprised if Mike Yeo has the interim tag lifted at the end of the season.  He’s the holdover from Alain Vigneault’s staff and it’s not as if they’ve been better since the coaching change.  If GM Chuck Fletcher truly believes in this core, a new voice is one card that can be played to try to give this team a spark and potentially provide a culture change as well.  Having someone currently around the team on a day-to-day basis behind the bench would make it very difficult to accomplish that particular objective.

Nha Trang: San Jose: $70 million committed next year to only 17 NHL contracts, and major bucks committed to elderly, underproducing players. Buy out Vlasic? Someone else? Bribe another team to take Burns’ or Karlsson’s contract off their hands? Hold their noses and pray? What’s the solution?

A buyout of Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s contract would only push the problem down the road as the varied structure of the deal actually would yield buyout costs of roughly $4.2MM in 2024-25 and $5.2MM in 2025-26.  Sure, they’d save a fair bit on the first two seasons but that’s only a short-term fix.

They’re going to have to move a goalie – presumably either Adin Hill or James Reimer – which will save a little over $2MM in cap room but most of that will be redirected to Kaapo Kahkonen.  I suspect they will try to get out of Radim Simek’s deal and with only two years left on it, they may be able to find a taker in a swap that would bring a forward back.  Even Nick Bonino’s deal could be replaced with someone making a bit less.

There is, of course, one other wild card – Evander Kane.  Will their contract termination stand without any cap penalties or will there be some sort of retroactive penalty similar to Mike Richards and the Kings in the past?  If yes, how much will it cost?  That will help determine if there is a bigger cost-cutting move to make.

As things stand, I think they can fill out their roster and be cap-compliant next year.  They won’t be any better than they are now but it may be their only viable solution.  They’re in a tough spot and they don’t have the prospect pool to get themselves out of trouble just yet.  In the summer of 2023, Brent Burns is only down to two years left which will make him a little easier to move than he is now.  Vlasic would be down to three years and maybe a move is slightly easier then.  In the meantime, they’re going to need to just tread water.

W H Twittle: Are there teams other than Vegas and Minnesota that may be interested in Shea Weber’s contract? And why?

I don’t think either of those teams would be interested in him at all.  Minnesota’s was suggested as a hypothetical and it was quickly pointed out that it wouldn’t work for them and since then, there has been no suggestion that they’re actually interested.  As for Vegas, why would they take on four years of an LTIR contract?  Yes, it’s quite possible they try for another LTIR deal if they want to try the Evgenii Dadonov move again but there are contracts that can be acquired that are a lot shorter than four years.  It stands to reason they’d opt for one of those.  Ryan Kesler was preferable because his deal is an expiring one and they’d have minimal lingering commitments (just the rest of John Moore’s deal).

While Weber is likely on LTIR for the rest of his career (the league hasn’t signed off on that particular ruling yet which is why there hasn’t been an official announcement), there are lingering commitments.  He still counts against the 50-contract limit, his $7.857MM AAV is factored into calculations for the offseason cap (10% above the Upper Limit each year), a chunk of the salary has to be paid as the deal isn’t fully insured, and if it’s a cap-spending team that has his contract, they have an inability to bank cap space which means that any bonuses earned in a season become a carryover penalty for next year.  This is why Montreal wants to move him even though they haven’t even fully gotten clear of salary cap recapture liability yet with his deal (although the amount they’d potentially be on the hook for would be less than $1MM in total which pales in comparison to Nashville’s number).

So, who might be interested?  It sounds like there were talks with Arizona which makes a bit of sense as they have no intention of spending to the cap ceiling and would rather hang around the cap floor.  With Weber’s salary being lower than his AAV, there’s some potential for savings in total dollars being spent which, with as small of an arena as they’ll be playing out of for a little while, is notable.  (It’s the same reason that they took on Bryan Little’s contract from Winnipeg.)  But they’re about the only viable fit for that contract for now because of how much longer it runs.

MillvilleMeteor: What would a trade package look like for the Ducks to trade up and grab Shane Wright at the number one spot in the draft?

More than they should be willing to pay.  Considering Wright is projected to be an impact center, Trevor Zegras or Mason McTavish would have to be the focal point of the offer with Anaheim also needing to part with their first-rounder which is hovering around 10th overall at the moment.  Considering the almost always exorbitant asking price for a first-overall selection (which is why they basically never move), there’s probably another piece that would need to be involved as well in the range of a late first or early second-rounder or an equivalent prospect.

There’s a high sticker shock with a number one pick and frankly, it’s not one anyone should really be willing to pay this year.  Wright’s going to be a very good NHL center but he’s not a franchise player, not compared to the top picks in the class of 2023.  If you’re going to make the big move and cash in some of those younger assets, it needs to be for someone that you can really build around.  I’m not sure Wright is that caliber of player.

With the moves they’ve recently made, Anaheim is in a spot where they need to stay on the course that they’re on.  Make these extra picks they’ve acquired and continue to develop their young core.  In a year or two when their top youngsters are further along in their development, then they can look towards some win-now pieces.  But in terms of pick or prospect consolidation, I don’t think that’s the route the Ducks should be taking.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Who are the Devils’ 1A and 1B goalies next year? Assuming Bernier is done and Blackwood gets traded.

I’m not convinced Mackenzie Blackwood is ultimately dealt but I’ll play along with the premise and pick a new tandem.  This isn’t a great UFA year in terms of starters.  Darcy Kuemper is available but I don’t think he’d look at New Jersey as a viable option unless they vastly overpaid in salary.  Marc-Andre Fleury probably isn’t going there and Jack Campbell looks like a bit of a risk now.  That leaves Ville Husso who, quite frankly, is also a bit of a risk given his limited track record.  That should limit his market to an extent where if the Devils were willing to take the plunge on a medium-term contract in the $4MM range, that might be enough to get him.

But with Husso’s limited track record, they’d need a fairly proven platoon partner and that’s not coming from free agency.  Let’s turn to the trade front then.  Jeremy Swayman’s season with Boston could be enough to get them to move on from Linus Ullmark’s contract (three years, $5MM AAV left after this season) as long as they get a decent goalie in return.  Perhaps someone like Blackwood who could look better behind the back end of the Bruins?  That would save them some short-term money (which is important with Patrice Bergeron up this summer and David Pastrnak next offseason) while giving them a serviceable second option for Swayman while Ullmark would give New Jersey a more proven partner for Husso.

The combined AAV for the tandem would be on the higher side compared to other teams but the Devils have ample cap space at their disposal and can afford it.  An Ullmark-Husso tandem would certainly be an upgrade on what they have now with short enough commitments in terms of the length of the contracts to not block someone like Nico Daws if he shows he’s ready for full-time NHL duty down the road.

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It has certainly been an eventful past few weeks around the NHL with a very busy trade deadline plus a rare trade that was approved and later invalidated by the league.  On top of that, the push for the playoffs is heating up with battles for seeding in the Eastern Conference and several spots up for grabs in the very tight Western Conference.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.  If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts.  The first one focused on several trade deadline scenarios while the second looked at how St. Louis can afford to keep pending UFA Ville Husso, the future of Winnipeg’s core forward group, and much more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.