PHR Mailbag

After two mailbags last weekend that focused on the trade deadline last weekend, we turn our focus to the non-deadline questions with including Ron Hextall’s future with Pittsburgh, officiating, and more.

2012orioles: Do the Caps sell? And if so, is Orlov a trade candidate? Could they still bring him back in the offseason if he’s traded?

Well, we know the answer to the first two questions as yes, they sold and yes, Dmitry Orlov was traded.  So, let’s focus on the possibility of him returning next season.

Generally speaking, players that are traded at the deadline rarely go back to the team that dealt them.  That’s not to say it doesn’t happen but off the top of my head, I can only think of a handful of pricey veterans that ultimately went back to the team that moved them.  I expect that Orlov won’t be in that minority.

Prior to being dealt to Boston, the Capitals and Orlov’s camp took a real run at trying to get an extension done but reports at the time suggested the two sides weren’t exactly close with term being the sticking point; Washington wanted a shorter-term deal than Orlov.

I can certainly understand why Orlov is looking for a long-term pact.  He’ll be entering his age-32 season in 2023-24.  This is his last shot at a long-term agreement, one that likely would take him close to retirement.  He should have a good shot at getting it too.  But at the same time, I understand why Washington was hesitant to give him a long-term deal as those last couple of seasons might not age well given the hard minutes Orlov has played over the years.

Is it possible that one side has a change of heart in July?  Sure.  But I don’t think much is going to change over the next few months that definitively makes someone change their mind.  If he doesn’t re-sign with Boston, he’ll be one of the top free agent blueliners on the open market and someone will give Orlov a long-term deal.

The Duke: OK, Crystal Ball, let’s hear some wiley wisdom: 1. Which teams meet in the Stanley Cup Final – and who wins it? 2. Which 3 or 4 players currently in the minors make a scoring impact in the NHL next season? 3. Who are your Top-5 forwards, Top-3 offensive D-men, and Top-3 goaltenders in the upcoming NHL draft? As, always, thanks in advance!

1) Boston has been the favorite in the East basically all season long and bolstered their lineup at the deadline.  It’s hard not to go with them coming out of their conference.  In the West, Colorado is the trendy pick with the expectation that they’ll find their stride down the stretch.  But that’s too easy of a pick for this.  I’ll go off the board a bit and say Dallas to come out of the West.  They have strong goaltending, are good defensively, and have impressive scoring depth.  As for who wins in this too early to predict Final, I’ll go with Boston.

2) When this question came out, William Eklund was still in the minors so let’s go with him.  The Sharks wisely have slow-played his development and he’ll be ready to play a bigger role next year because of it.  Alexander Holtz is finally in the minors but I expect he’ll be back in the NHL next season and he has too much offensive upside to have another year like this one.  I think we’ll see some turnover coming in Calgary next year which could pave the way for Connor Zary to get an extended look.  Ridly Greig might not put up a lot of points right away in Ottawa but I think he’ll make an impact at least.

3) The ball hasn’t dug too deep into this year’s class of prospects yet so this could certainly change closer to the draft but here goes:

Forwards: Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson, Zach Benson

Defense: David Reinbacher, Mikhail Gulyayev, Axel Sandin-Pellikka

Goalies: Carson Bjarnason, Jacob Fowler, Scott Ratzlaff

W H Twittle: This was the year that the Sens, Sabres, and Wings were expected to take the next step in their respective claims to a playoff spot. What happened?

Boy, things have changed in the couple of weeks since this question came up.  Generally speaking, I think things have gone somewhat as expected for two of the three at least.

Ottawa: They’re the big underachiever out of the group.  I thought they’d have been legitimately in the Wild Card battle at least.  Now, they’re on a nice little run and just added Jakob Chychrun so they’re definitely staying in the battle for a Wild Card spot.  While they certainly won’t be favored if they get to the playoffs, just getting there and playing meaningful games in April is an important step to take for that franchise.

Buffalo: With due respect to Craig Anderson (who’s having a nice year) and Eric Comrie, is that really a playoff-caliber goalie tandem?  I think the expectations for the Sabres this season were to be more competitive while assessing the improvement of their young core.  I think they’re about where they figured to be, a non-playoff team but considerably more competitive.

Detroit: I had them a bit like Buffalo, more competitive but still on the outside looking in.  I think they could have made enough of a run to get into a Wild Card spot had they been buyers at the deadline but they pivoted to selling after seeing other teams load up.  They haven’t made their big splash yet that really signifies they’re in the mix so them still being on the outside looking in doesn’t surprise me.

jdgoat: Do the Senators make sense for an Erik Karlsson reunion?

Technically, this was a trade deadline question but I wasn’t expecting Karlsson to move so I pushed it to this column.  I think it would have been neat to see him go back and there certainly would have been a role for him to fill but I don’t think it was a realistic option (and this is before they went and added Chychrun).

Very quickly, Ottawa’s core group has gotten more expensive.  Joshua Norris, Brady Tkachuk, and Thomas Chabot are all around the $8MM mark.  Alex DeBrincat will join that group when he signs his next deal this summer which is going to check in around his $9MM qualifying offer.  Even with San Jose hypothetically retaining 25% of the contract, Karlsson would still be in that group.  That’s five players making what would be close to 50% of the Upper Limit next season.  Let’s not forget Claude Giroux at $6.5MM while we’re at it.  They can’t really afford any more big-ticket contracts.  That’s why getting Chychrun on a below-market contract is such a nice pickup for them.

It’s also worth noting the Nikita Zaitsev deal which saw them send Chicago a pair of draft picks to take on his contract.  If they don’t make that move, they don’t get Chychrun.  Not for cap reasons but for budgetary reasons; with an ownership situation that’s clearly in flux, they don’t have the green light to add significant payroll right now.  That alone takes the idea of Karlsson going there off the table until a new ownership group steps in.  It would have been neat to see but Karlsson returning to the Senators probably isn’t a viable option anytime soon.

@TheeDavidDoonan: Why won’t the Penguins fire Hextall?

I was hesitant about pushing this question here in case Pittsburgh GM Ron Hextall went out and had, let’s call it, a redemptive deadline.  I don’t think he did.  Without digging into what happened too much, willingly taking on two more years of Mikael Granlund after this one at $5MM per season was not the type of upgrade many were hoping for or expecting to see.

However, that upgrade falls within the parameters of their expectations as a team that’s trying to win now.  With the veteran core group they have, a full-scale rebuild isn’t happening.  Being as close to the playoffs as they are, merely selling off their free agents wasn’t going to drop them far enough in the standings to be in the mix for a high draft pick in June.  So, even though it could be an exercise in futility in the end with the way several other Eastern teams loaded up, he went and added to his roster.

Barring a new directive from ownership, one that is more amenable to at least a short-term retooling, I don’t see a change coming.  Hextall is barely two years into his tenure which is on the short side for general managers who typically get longer leashes than head coaches.  As long as Pittsburgh stays in the playoff mix, I expect them to stay on their current trajectory and continue to operate as they did this week as a team that’s going to try to hang around the playoff picture.

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With the trade deadline now less than a week away, the focus of the mailbag this weekend will be questions pertaining to trades and the upcoming deadline.  With so many deadline questions submitted, we’ve split this weekend’s mailbag in two so be sure to check back in yesterday’s column if you don’t see yours submitted here.  Next week, the focus will primarily be on the non-deadline queries (with a couple of trade ones in there as well).

One More JAGR: Do the Pens finally realize they aren’t gonna crack the playoffs this year with how competitive the Metro is, how uncompetitive the Pens are, and how they have pretty much no cap to address any of the multiple issues plaguing the team? Do they instead look towards the offseason and will the plan be to let the UFA’s walk and try to trade some cap out in hopes that the closing window on the big three can be better next season? Also is it finally Sully’s time to be out and try to go get Trotz?

I think it’s too early to say the Penguins aren’t going to make it.  A divisional seed isn’t happening but they can catch and pass the Islanders in the Wild Card race if they win their games in hand.  Granted, their recent performances aren’t exactly inspiring much hope that they can win those games, tonight being a notable exception.

I touched on this earlier this month but there is no good option here.  They can’t truly rebuild with their veteran core locked up long-term.  They can’t fall far enough down to really tank for a high draft pick.  But they’re not good enough to contend either.  I still think that if there’s a low-risk upgrade they can make (clearing Kasperi Kapanen’s cap hit off the books gives them some flexibility), they’ll do it over the next few days even though there’s a case to make that doing so defies logic.

Among their pending UFAs, I suspect that they want to re-sign Tristan Jarry.  Brian Dumoulin’s value isn’t great at this point so they wouldn’t get much for him.  There might be some interest in Jason Zucker but it’s not going to be a top return.  And their other expirings are depth guys where the interest is going to be limited at best.  There’s not enough to really restock the cupboard.

As for the coaching situation, I think we can rule out Trotz taking over behind the bench in Pittsburgh with him poised to become the next GM in Nashville.  (Obviously, this question came well before the Trotz news broke.)

@iwtfwc: WHAT are @Avalanche going 2 do? Many “LINKED” players off the board & still injured, also Landeskog’s return timeline unsure, your thoughts? And, at this point in time, thoughts on this list?

M.Domi
N. Bjugstad
J. Puljujarvi
J. McCabe
L. Schenn

Chris MacFarland’s hands are tied right now until he has a better understanding of when (or if) Gabriel Landeskog and Erik Johnson can return.  If both can’t come back, they’ll have a ton of cap space to work with and can shop at the high end of the market.  If one can’t come back, they’ll still be able to add a smaller piece or two.  If both are likely to be back though, then they’re looking at more or less having to match money.  Right now, they’re going to wait as a few more days might give them the clarity they need to know which way they’re going to proceed.  I expect them to try to be a buyer either way, it’s just a matter of knowing which part of the market they’ll be shopping in.

As for your list, I’d take off Jake McCabe.  With two years left and Chicago wanting a first-round pick if they’re going to retain money, that one doesn’t work.  I’m not sure Jesse Puljujarvi is worth getting either unless it’s a deal right before the buzzer sounds and they have extra room to burn.  Luke Schenn makes a lot of sense on paper but without a second-rounder or a third-rounder in the next two seasons, will they be able to be the top bidder?  Would they move a 2025 second-rounder to get him?  If other teams are offering thirds this season or next, they’ll have to go up a round to cover the longer wait.

I like Max Domi as a secondary option.  He can play center and the wing and while I’m not sure he’d be able to produce at a similar rate as he is with Chicago (46 points in 57 games), he’d give them some more options in their middle six.  But again, without seconds and thirds in the next two years, that move might be tricky to make as I assume their first-rounder isn’t in play.  Nick Bjugstad could help in the bottom six and if Arizona is okay with a 2024 fourth-round pick for him, sure, that would make sense.  I think they might get more than that though with his contract and the year he’s having.

If they do have LTIR money to spend, I could see them being interested in a player like Gustav Nyquist who’s out for the season but should be back for the playoffs.  Sean Monahan, if he’s in that situation, would be another option on that front.  Lars Eller is another possible target with Washington now selling.  If Johnson is going to be out for a while, Nick Jensen might be a target for a replacement on the right side of the back end as well.

Zakis: With the Wild in NHL purgatory and having a solid set of prospects, would it be better to sell or buy at the trade deadline? What direction do you see them going?

Follow-up question: what would Hartman get in a trade?

I’ve flip-flopped on this one a few times in recent weeks.  Considering they’re in a playoff spot at the moment, it’s hard to make a case to sell, especially as their dead cap costs go up next year from the increases to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts.  This might be their best shot for a little bit.  On the other hand, they’re pretty much certain that they won’t be able to re-sign Matt Dumba and the idea of losing him for nothing isn’t ideal.

I keep coming back to them doing a bit of both.  In a perfect world, they find a spot for Dumba and then turn around and get a capable replacement, perhaps using part of the return for Dumba with the net gain being an upgraded draft pick or something like that.  His performance this season makes that a challenge though so admittedly, I don’t expect that to happen; I think he stays put.  I think they’d like to open up money for next season so if there’s a move to be made to do that, it’d be hard not to but that also potentially qualifies as a seller move.

However, with them having plenty of cap space, they can absorb some pricey expiring contracts and add to their depth.  I could see them sniffing around in the final hour before the deadline looking to simply relieve some teams of a player for a late-round pick or equivalent return that ultimately sees them upgrade a depth spot or two without really giving up much value.  Doing both is a tough needle to thread though but I think it’s what they should do if they can.  I don’t think they’re good enough to truly contend but when you’re a handful of points out of the division lead, it’s hard to only subtract from your roster.

Moving Ryan Hartman is an interesting idea.  His value isn’t as high as it was last year when he had a career season but he’s still a pretty good bargain at $1.7MM through next season.  I could see that being worth a first-round pick but in doing so, they’d be taking a key piece off their roster, one that would be pretty difficult to replace, even with more financial flexibility than other teams have.  Unless they’re a straight seller, I don’t expect them to consider that.

Pawtucket: Who is the worst player on an expiring deal on a playoff team?  And then who should they trade him to for what return?

My immediate thought was Milan Lucic but Calgary isn’t in the postseason.  Let’s call them playoff-adjacent so they’re out.  My second thought was Jonathan Quick of the Kings.  $5.8MM for a save percentage of .879 isn’t good value at all.  Clearing that contract would give them plenty of flexibility.  It’d also open up a hole between the pipes and I’m not sure the optics are great for trading a 16-year King who seems like a candidate to retire at the year.  He’s probably out as well as a result.

My next (and last) thought was to look to the minors for the negative-value deals there.  That would be Anton Khudobin, a player that legitimately is an NHLer but his contract was easy to bury.  I don’t think he’s likely to be dealt with an incentive (which is what I assume you were expecting to see) but would rather be a throw-in in a deal like Craig Smith was to match money.

I will say this, however.  If you’re looking for teams that a buyer might need to dump money onto, I’d go with Minnesota, Anaheim, and Chicago.  The Wild could do a move like that to add a depth piece, The Ducks have indicated before that they’re open to such a move, and the Blackhawks have done it enough times already that there’s no reason to think they wouldn’t again.

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With the trade deadline now less than a week away, the focus of the mailbag this weekend will be questions pertaining to trades and the upcoming deadline.  With so many deadline questions submitted, we’ll split this weekend’s mailbag in two.  Next week, the focus will primarily be on the non-deadline queries (with a couple of trade ones in there as well).

@kflorenz1: Assuming Kane decided to waive his no-trade and the ‘Hawks express an interest in retaking 50-75% of the cap hit, what does the package look like?? #1 and a prospect?? 2nd rounder, plus two prospects??

Based on Patrick Kane’s recent comments, if he opts to waive his no-move protection, it will only be for one team, maybe two max if someone comes in late that intrigues him.  At this point, I think pretty much everyone believes the list begins and ends with the Rangers.  That will make it extremely difficult for Chicago to get good value, let alone top value.  If it is just New York or bust, the Rangers can come in with a low-ball offer and basically say it’s that or nothing.

Let’s go Rangers-specific here with the package.  I don’t think their other first-rounder is in play but they have a second-rounder this year.  I think that would move.  There should be a prospect component after that but I’m not sure it’s toward the top end of their prospect pool.  I’ve seen some suggest Zachary Jones as a possibility and if it’s a forward, I like Adam Sykora, a player who likely isn’t a top-six piece in the NHL but has a good shot at making it in a lower role.  They’ll also have to flip a mid-round pick somewhere for the extra 25% of retention.  With a one-team bidding pool, I don’t expect the cost to be particularly high and it will be Chicago choosing to ‘do right’ by their long-time star to move him to his desired destination.

Gmm8811: Now that Armstrong has started the fire sale, I see a couple more moves that might make sense. Krug to Detroit…they have the cap space and prospects to make this work, plus maybe going back to his hometown might be the best for him. While I’m not ready to give up on Parayko just yet, send him home to Edmonton for Hyman. I know they all have NMC clauses, but as we’ve seen that’s not really an obstacle.

I can make a case for Krug to Detroit but there’s a reason that GM Steve Yzerman has refused to commit long-term contracts in free agency.  He doesn’t want to make that type of long-term commitment although he’s going to have to soon if he wants to re-sign Dylan Larkin.  If he doesn’t give one to a player on the open market, why would he turn around and trade for one, giving up assets to do so?  If there were two fewer years on the contract (meaning there were two years left instead of four), I think this could be an interesting option but with Krug signed at $6.5MM through 2025-26, I don’t think Detroit shows interest.

As for Colton Parayko to Edmonton, he’d certainly help their back end.  However, Zach Hyman is on pace for a 96-point season.  Is subtracting a player that seems likely to hit 40 goals and around 90 points if he stays healthy really a move that makes them a better team in the long run?  I don’t think it does.  If they move Parayko, the return is going to be underwhelming as that contract ($6.5MM through 2029-30) and concerns over his back means it would be more of a cap dump than trading for someone of value.

I also want to comment quickly on your NMC thought.  Just because we see some players waive their trade protection doesn’t mean it’s not an obstacle.  There are quite a few trades every year that get kiboshed due to a player invoking that protection.  We just don’t always hear about it.  And if someone has full protection, they can leverage that into a very small list that makes it difficult for the trading team to bring back full value (think back on this when the expected Kane trade is made official).  Sometimes, it doesn’t matter much but it can be an obstacle more often than you might think.

dodgerskingsfan: I thought the Kings were close on Chychrun. What other LHD are there that the Kings can acquire and who (if any) will be traded off the roster?

rpoabr: Add to this. – what’s a fair deal for the Kings to get Chychrun all things considered? Coyotes aren’t getting their ask based on no deal, so far, Kings should be able to offer a good package to get it done without sacrificing the future.

Let’s put these two together.  I’ll tackle the easy part first.  Sean Walker is probably the one who goes if they need someone strictly to try to match money.  Matt Roy would be the other but he has some standalone value so that one would be more of the team trading Los Angeles doesn’t want to take Walker back and the Kings turn around and move Roy in a separate deal to clear the salary.

As for other left-shot defenders possibly in play, Vladislav Gavrikov is back in play after the expected deal with Boston fell through.  Jake McCabe is signed as long as Jakob Chychrun at fairly similar money ($4MM for McCabe, $4.6MM for Chychrun) and he’d likely fit in on their second pairing.  Shayne Gostisbehere is a rental that can help a power play.  If Nashville decides to actually sell, I could see them poking around on Mattias Ekholm as well.  If Chychrun falls through (and I don’t think it’s at that point yet), there will be other options.

As for the second question, Arizona is looking for future assets.  If Los Angeles is offering a package that doesn’t sacrifice anything of their future, what’s in it for the Coyotes?  They’re well within their rights to ask for the package they’re believed to be looking for.  It’ll have to include their first-round pick this year, that’s pretty much a given.  I think there needs to be a young defenseman coming back so that’d be one of Jordan Spence or maybe Tobias Bjornfot.

The other piece is a little harder.  Assuming it’s another first-round element, I think the Coyotes would want a center.  They’d probably ask for Quinton Byfield but that should be a non-starter for the Kings.  Los Angeles probably counters with Alex Turcotte who is probably a non-starter for Arizona unless their scouts are really high on him.  With the belief that their focus is on entry-level players, how much do they like Rasmus Kupari?  I think this is where the hold-up is in a trade as the other secondary elements are there but finding that ‘A’ piece is where they’re struggling as swapping in a 2024 first-rounder probably doesn’t move the needle either.

SkidRowe: 1) Did the Bruins do enough?

2) Why did it cost as much for Orlov and Hathaway as the Rangers paid for Tarasenko and Mikkola and the Maple Leafs paid for O’Reilly and Acciari?

1) Considering Boston is already the top team in the league playing at a level rarely seen, they didn’t really have to do a whole lot necessarily.  That they were able to add an impact defenseman and a gritty depth winger that can kill penalties without subtracting anything of consequence is excellent for them.  Right now, they’re still the prohibitive Stanley Cup favorite so by that standpoint, yeah, they’ve done enough.  Of course, the true answer to that question will come in June.

2) With Tarasenko, the Rangers got the best rental winger on the market.  With O’Reilly, the Maple Leafs got the best rental center that might move.  In Orlov, the Bruins are getting the best rental defenseman that’s out there so when you have two preceding trades that set the precedent for the ‘top at that position’ type of swap, it made sense to me that this one was similarly structured.  It also should be noted that Boston, unlike the other two teams, was in a spot where they had to match money so there’s a bit of premium to be paid to do so to get Washington to take Smith’s deal on.  It’s a high price, no doubt, but I think it was a fair one based on what had already been established.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what Seattle might do to add before the deadline, how Dallas could be an intriguing team to keep an eye on, if there’s a trade market for Anthony Mantha, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s two mailbag columns.

Grocery stick: What would the Blackhawks do with Connor Bedard? If they keep trading away everyone, is Bedard supposed to play with wingers like Mackenzie Entwistle and Boris Katchouk? Should I keep my fingers crossed anyone else wins the lottery?

This is a question I’ve wondered myself for a few possible lottery winners.  When you get a potential franchise player, the last thing a team should want to do is to waste his three cheap seasons by continuing to aim to finish at the bottom of the standings.  If Bedard pans out as many expect him to, his second contract is going to be a pricey one, probably in the double-digit AAV range.  It’s much easier to try to win when that player is capped at a $1MM base salary on an entry-level deal.

For Chicago specifically, I don’t think winning the lottery would necessarily end the rebuild and the spending would start right away to add some quality talent around him.  However, I do think it would expedite what otherwise is likely to be a multi-year process.

Next season, I wouldn’t expect much to change.  I think they’ll want to add a capable veteran or two (or perhaps re-sign a certain duo if they opt not to be dealt) to insulate Bedard a little bit but the goal will still be tanking so their current wingers would still likely be part of the lineup.  In 2024-25, Frank Nazar might be ready to turn pro after his freshman year this season was cut short due to injury and Lukas Reichel should be a full-timer by then.  They’ll also be armed with ample cap space and what should be a pretty good selling point (come play in a strong market with the next great star) to help attract some quality veterans.  That’s not enough to become an immediate contender but they might be able to get to the playoffs.  From there, 2025-26 would be their ‘go for it’ year before Bedard’s contract would start to become more of an obstacle.

aka.nda: How big do the Kraken dare to dream about their postseason?

I don’t expect GM Ron Francis to be dreaming too big here.  Part of the logic for Seattle hiring him was the slow and steady approach he has for roster building.  This is only their second year and I don’t think he feels that they’re at a spot where it’s time to flip a switch, consolidate some assets into more impact pieces, and really go for it.

There’s a big question that stands out to me that make it difficult to justify loading up too much, their goaltending.  Martin Jones isn’t a true starting goalie, Philipp Grubauer is still underachieving, and even when Chris Driedger returns from his season-long injury, he’s not a real starter either.  They’re not going to go trade for yet another goalie and it’s hard to think someone in that triumvirate is going to carry them to postseason success.  With that in mind, it’s probably not the right time to load up.

They’ve already made their depth move on the back end with the addition of Jaycob Megna from San Jose.  I could see them aiming for a third-line forward signed beyond this year with Toronto’s second-rounder being in play (a non-rental makes it easier for them to justify parting with the pick) but that’s about the extent of the buying I expect them to do.

The Duke: Oh, Supreme Soothsaying Spheroid, I humbly seek your wise fortune-telling: 1. Does Horvat somehow resurrect Barzal’s scoring? 2. Luke Hughes rumored up with Devils in early March; does he make their PP? 3. Does Tarasenko stay or go – and to where n’ for whom? 4. Same Q regarding Laine?

1) If you mean scoring in terms of goals, probably not.  Mathew Barzal just isn’t a goal scorer; he’s a playmaker.  It doesn’t matter who you put with him, he’ll hover around the mid-teens for goals; he’s just not a high-end shooter.  But what Bo Horvat should do is balance things out.  The Isles now have two capable scoring lines with some players that can be shifted around.  In the long term, that’s going to help their offense and, by extension, help Barzal’s point total.  If he’s on the wing with Horvat as he is now, that line should score more.  If Barzal’s on the second line and Horvat’s line is drawing the tighter checkers, that should make it a bit easier on Barzal.  Long story short, the trade should help Barzal’s assist total but I wouldn’t expect his goal total to change much.

2) Assuming Hughes does turn pro as expected and is in New Jersey’s lineup, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense if he wasn’t on one of their power play units.  If you’re going to put someone into the lineup straight out of college, putting that player in a position to succeed is critical.  He’s quite comfortable and productive on the man advantage at Michigan so it would make sense to play him on the second unit with the Devils.  Damon Severson is in that spot at the moment but only has four goals (none of which were on the power play) so it’s not as if that spot can’t be upgraded.

3) Well, we all know the answer to this one now as Vladimir Tarasenko is with the Rangers as the crystal ball predicted back in December.

4) There isn’t much of a reason to think Patrik Laine is going anywhere over the next few weeks.  It was a big deal for them to get Laine to give up a few UFA years on his last contract so why would they move him in the first year of that?  Yes, things haven’t gone well at all and there will be changes coming but it’s not going to be their top guys that move.  Laine (and Johnny Gaudreau) should be around for a couple more years at least.

@JasonClausen7: Are the Stars pretty much handcuffed this trade deadline?  It seems the Benn and Seguin contracts have stopped them from being able to do anything lately.  Benn’s resurgence has been great but what’s happened to Seguin?  Will he ever be better than this?

I actually think Dallas is in reasonable shape compared to some other potential buyers.  Barely having $1MM in cap room (per CapFriendly) isn’t much to work with but it’s better than quite a few teams.  On top of that, they have an expiring offset contract in Anton Khudobin who’s counting on the books at $2.208MM while he’s in the minors.  Most contenders don’t have a veteran roster player that they’d want to move out but Khudobin, who isn’t on the roster at all, is an easy exception.  Include him in a trade and all of a sudden, that ups their spending capital past the $3MM mark and if the trading team is retaining up to the maximum of 50%, now we’re talking about a $6MM player.  That gives them some options so I don’t see them being handcuffed.

As for Tyler Seguin, I don’t see a big resurgence coming.  He’s averaging 0.66 points per game this season.  If we expand that timeline back to his average since 2018-19, it’s at 0.66 points per game.  This is basically who he is now, a second liner that, if he’s healthy, should average between 50-55 points in a season.  That’s still a pretty useful player all things considered.  Don’t get me wrong, the contract is lousy and is probably one of the worst in the league.  But at the very least, he’s still a more than serviceable player.

Devil Shark: I know it’s early(ish) but… Is 2018 the biggest bust draft this millennium?

By a quick look, there are about three top-tier players out of the whole draft and a few bit players which seems incredibly weak. I’ve seen a lot of debate about the top drafts of the past 20 years… but what about the worst?

Thanks in advance.

The top-end depth of this draft is okay in Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Andrei Svechnikov, and Brady Tkachuk.  That’s not bad and all those players are still on an upward trajectory.  Perhaps there isn’t a superstar in the mix but those are some quality core players that will have long careers.  But there is definitely some fall-off after that as Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Barrett Hayton, and Filip Zadina (all top-six picks) have been depth players at best thus far.  There have been some good value picks (Noah Dobson at 11, Joel Farabee at 14, and K’Andre Miller at 22 among the first rounders) but even at that, that’s not that special compared to other seasons.

I think I’d nominate 2012 as a bigger bust of a draft than 2018.  Nail Yakupov was a bad pick at first overall.  Ryan Murray is no more than a depth defender now, he was the second pick.  Alex Galchenyuk’s in the minors after bouncing around the last few years (and is still fifth in scoring from this group).  The fourth pick, Griffin Reinhart, never scored a single NHL goal.  Now, there have been some good value picks from that class that have given it some depth (Filip Forsberg, Tomas Hertl, and Teuvo Teravainen were all picked in the middle third of the first round) and there are 21 players (and counting) with at least 500 NHL appearances.  That helps.  But 2018’s group should eventually get to that level within the next six years (where it could be better compared with 2012’s class today) and at least the first couple of picks (Dahlin and Svechnikov) are panning out to be high-end pieces.  That just can’t be said for the 2012 group.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the future of Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher, the challenges the Penguins will face if they try to rebuild, the trade deadline challenge for the Avalanche, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.  Unless you asked about Dylan Larkin.  He’ll be the focus of a bonus mailbag column tomorrow.

Gmm8811: It pains me to say this but I fear the Blues are in need of a major overhaul from top to bottom. Their fiscal situation isn’t sustainable. They need to start stockpiling draft picks. Their reserve list is ok but pretty bare of any significant talent. Tarasenko and O’Reilly could bring some nice draft picks. Parayko has become the fans whipping boy…I can see him being moved. Maybe Krug goes too. Binnington overpaid for the return the team gets from him. Defense needs to get tougher and bottom six forwards need to improve. This team is not set up for the future at all in my opinion.

I would be surprised to see anywhere this level of an overhaul coming from St. Louis in the coming weeks before the deadline.  Yes, some changes will be coming, largely because of their cap situation when $10.65MM gets added to their books with the new deals for Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas kick in and that won’t allow them to re-sign or replace both Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly.  Barring a drastic improvement over the next few weeks, the pending UFAs could be traded but I doubt we’ll see much more than moving out their rentals by March 3rd.

I do think there’s a desire for the back end to be tougher but this is an easier-said-than-done scenario.  Colton Parayko’s injury history hurts his value, as does the fact he’s signed until 2030.  There’s some concern that his contract won’t age well.  Given his importance on their current back end, I don’t think they want to sell low on him.  Torey Krug has four years left at $6.5MM as well.  Look at what happened with Shayne Gostisbehere a couple of years ago with Philadelphia having to pay to get the last two years of his deal off their books.  I don’t think that’s a route they want to take.  Jordan Binnington is in a similar situation, four years left at $6MM is a negative-value deal right now.  In the short term, creating a spot for Tyler Tucker to play regularly on the third pairing will give them a bit more physicality while I wouldn’t hold your breath about big improvements coming to the bottom six for cap reasons.

There’s a changing of the guard underway with Kyrou and Thomas becoming the new centerpieces of their forward group.  I think that change will continue but it will be gradual.  Once some of these longer-term contracts start to get shorter (think a couple of years from now) and become easier to move, that’s when I think we’ll start to see some more of the veteran core changing up.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: How surprising is it that Fletcher still with the Flyers? If he is allowed to make moves at the deadline, doesn’t that pretty well mean he stays even into next season? Not fair to a potential new GM to let Fletch make any moves now…is Briere ready to take the next step? If so, do they risk losing him to another team by sticking with Fletch now?

I’m not that surprised that Chuck Fletcher is still at the helm for Philadelphia.  This season hasn’t been pretty but injuries certainly haven’t helped things which could be a factor.  It’s also year one of a coaching change.  To me, the fact the team allowed Fletcher to give John Tortorella a four-year, $16MM contract means they still had a lot of faith in him at that time.  They’re six points out of a playoff spot despite not having Sean Couturier, Ryan Ellis, and Cam Atkinson all season long.  I don’t think there’s a big appetite internally to change things as a result.  I wouldn’t say Fletcher has a long leash but I don’t think there will be any restrictions on him at the deadline.

As for Daniel Briere, I don’t think the Flyers are at much risk in terms of losing him.  Yes, he was in the mix for Montreal’s job last season but they’re a team that places high importance on speaking French which doesn’t give them a deep pool to choose from.  Since then, I don’t think Briere has been a serious candidate for the few openings that have come up.

He’s still pretty inexperienced in the NHL in terms of management.  He has been a consultant for a year and a half and a special assistant for a year and a half.  Sure, some experience building up ECHL Maine from the ground helps but is he a little too green to take over a team?  I think other organizations think he is.  Give it a year or two, then he should come up in speculation a bit more.  Who knows, perhaps at that time, Fletcher moves up to Team President and Briere takes over as GM, something we’ve seen other organizations do?  I’m sure that’s not your favorite scenario but unless this team completely nosedives next season, I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

mhaftman7: The Flyers DESPERATELY need to go all in on a rebuild. Is Provorov to the Kings for a package including Byfield realistic? Could Hayes, JVR, Konecny, and Ristolainen all be moved?

On paper, I like the fit of your trade idea.  Ivan Provorov would certainly fill a need in Los Angeles and while his value is down, so too is Quinton Byfield’s so it’d be an interesting buy-low move on both sides assuming the other pieces are in place to make the money work (and we’d be talking about needing to match his $6.75MM contract, more or less).  Is it realistic right now?  I’m not so sure.  I think the PR element from what happened last month during Philadelphia’s Pride Night is going to come into play in trade talks.  On top of that, these types of trades are likelier to happen at the draft or in the summer than they are now.

As for the need to do a rebuild, I don’t disagree.  At best, this is a team that’s spinning its wheels.  But a healthy Couturier and Atkinson (I’ll leave Ellis out as who knows if he’ll play again) probably get this team a few more points in the standings and then they’d be right in the Wild Card battle.  I don’t see a big blow-it-up scenario happening as a result.

But let’s look at your trade options.  Kevin Hayes has too pricey of a contract to move.  Same for Rasmus Ristolainen.  At best, they’re summer swaps for other expensive deals but I expect them to stay put.  I think James van Riemsdyk goes with 50% retention for a draft pick.  Travis Konecny though, that one’s tricky.  If they intend to go for the playoffs next season, he stays.  If they actually consider taking a step back though, this is a sell-high situation for someone in the prime of his career with two years left after this on what’s looking like a team-friendly $5.5MM.  I wouldn’t put him in the likely-to-be-dealt category but in the back of my head, he’s an interesting dark horse candidate.

NYRFan 2: The Rangers NEED to get more ❤️ not prettier. Any chance they package some younger talent like Hajek, Robertson, Jones, or Blais and a pick or so for players like Jeannot (who is struggling) and Xhekaj who plays a game Jeff Gorton hates? Instead of multiple firsts and talent for a rental when I don’t think we are there yet. Need guys to hammer pucks and bodies!

Let’s look at your trade chips first.  Libor Hajek’s trade value right now is next to non-existent.  He can’t go to the minors and hasn’t played well enough to stay in the lineup which has limited him to just ten games.  He’s a throw-in piece at this point.  So is Sammy Blais who is basically salary ballast.  Matthew Robertson still has some value but he’s not a headliner in a move for an impact player.  Zachary Jones could be though.  I think his value is down a bit this year but there will be rebuilding teams that look at him and think there’s a spot on the depth chart.  Jones, a pick, and one of the throw-ins is a package that could be of some interest to fill a need in the coming weeks.

That said, I don’t think Nashville has any interest in selling low on Tanner Jeannot and that trade combo as a result would certainly be selling low.  I could see a scenario where Montreal considers moving Arber Xhekaj as they have a lot of left-side depth in their defenseman pipeline but that would be to fill another organizational need, not replacing him with another left-side defender in Jones.

Maybe it’s just me but I don’t look at New York’s back end and think that they need more toughness.  Adam Fox is a finesse player, sure, but there isn’t anyone else that I’d put in that category.  (Ryan Lindgren isn’t the most physical but he’s capable of playing a hard game.)  I think they need an 18-minute player to partner with Braden Schneider, one that can kill penalties and move up if injuries arise.  That player doesn’t really profile as the intimidator that you’re aiming for.

Offensively, I think they should be targeting someone that can score as the Rangers have a middle-of-the-pack attack.  A key top-six addition could push them closer to a top-ten offense which, coupled with Igor Shesterkin, would make them very dangerous heading into the postseason.  They could benefit from adding a heavy player in the bottom six (preferably one that could kill penalties) but you’ll need to set your sights lower than Jeannot.

koz125: I’m embarrassed to be a Penguins fan at the moment. Shouldn’t they just start the rebuild with how terrible GMRH has screwed the team over? Obviously, they’re no longer a serious contender and likely not a playoff team either.

On the surface, it’s one thing to say they should start the rebuild.  But how exactly do they do that?  Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, and Evgeni Malkin aren’t going anywhere; even if Pittsburgh wanted to move them, I think they’d invoke their no-trade protection.  That’s a sizable chunk of their veteran core right there which makes a full-scale rebuild a lot harder to do.

Could they move Jeff Petry?  Sure.  Jake Guentzel would fetch a nice return as well.  But Bryan Rust probably isn’t movable with his long-term contract and lower production.  Rickard Rakell has had a nice year but his up-and-down track record will give teams pause, especially in the current cap environment.  Jason Zucker would bring back a draft pick at the deadline as a rental so I suppose that’s something but that’s not moving the needle much.  Brian Dumoulin has had a tough year so his value isn’t great and I think if they could have moved Marcus Pettersson by now, he’d be playing somewhere else.  That doesn’t leave them much of tradable options in terms of their core (or at least higher-priced) players.

This is probably going to sound a little goofy but staying on the current path might make more sense.  If you can’t rebuild properly, why go halfway and sit in the mushy middle of non-playoff teams?  If the other veterans don’t want to move or can’t be moved, they can’t really do a full-scale rebuild.  I agree that this team isn’t a contender but they’re close enough to the playoffs to justify staying the course for now.

It’s not a great spot to be in but quite frankly, none of their options are ideal at this point – do nothing, take a step back to become a non-playoff team that’ll finish 12th in the conference, or spend to try to sneak into a Wild Card spot.  If they fall out of the race a bit more in the coming weeks (Tristan Jarry’s injury will play a role there), then sure, flip Zucker and get a future asset for someone that you’d otherwise lose for nothing.  But that’s about the only rebuilding move I can see them making over the next few weeks.

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This edition of the PHR Mailbag largely focuses on the trade deadline which is now just over two months away.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

met man: Brian, do you think the Rangers should upgrade the backup goalie situation?

When I first saw this question, my immediate thought was yes, they should do something to upgrade the spot.  Jaroslav Halak is not having a particularly strong season which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering how poorly things went for him last season with Vancouver.  It stands to reason that if Igor Shesterkin gets injured, they’re in trouble.  In that sense, it does make sense to try to upgrade.

However, my second thought changed my tune somewhat.  Yes, they’ll be in trouble if Shesterkin goes down but that will be the case with whatever backup they have whether it’s Halak or one of the second-stringers that might move in the next couple of months.  Knowing that, is a second-string upgrade the most efficient use of their cap space?  Or should they focus on players that are going to play every night that improve their scoring or defense?

After bouncing those two thoughts around, I’ve come to some sort of hedge answer.  If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’d flip a mid-round pick to Columbus for Joonas Korpisalo at the deadline.  At that point, there isn’t much more than $300K left on his contract which shouldn’t be too difficult to fit in.  If they wanted to bank a little extra space between now and the deadline, they could paper Ben Harpur back and forth to help on that front.

Korpisalo’s numbers aren’t great but they’re better than Halak’s and he’s the type of goalie that might be worth getting an early look at to see if he’d fit as a longer-term backup beyond this season.  He does have some playoff experience and did quite well so as long as adding him doesn’t prevent them from making a bigger splash, it’d be worthwhile doing.  However, it’s worth noting that Halak can’t be buried in the minors which would offset most of Korpisalo’s cost as he has a full no-move clause so that would need to be factored into their spending plans.

cheftay: Who do you see Vancouver trading Horvat to and what a potential trade might look like? Do you see them possibly trading Miller too before his NTC kicks in this summer? If you were Vancouver’s GM, what might you do with this team going into the trade deadline and in the offseason? Would you buy out OEL?

In a recent mailbag, I had Vancouver finding a way to re-sign Bo Horvat and I don’t want to fully bail on that just yet.  I think a factor in their contract offers has been their cap situation but if things improve on that end (such as saving some money on a Brock Boeser trade, for example), they would be able to up their offer and that might be enough to bridge the gap.  I’m certainly not as confident in that happening as I was a month ago but I think it could happen.

Between that and hoping for as much certainty on next year’s cap as soon as possible, I think a Horvat trade, if it comes to that, comes close to the trade deadline.  It’s easier for other teams to make the money work in late February/early March than it is in January.  As for where, I like Colorado.  They’re a team that has a long-term need that might be willing to do an extension at the same time as the trade.  If Vancouver retains 50% and there’s an extension in place, I could see part of the offer being a first-round pick and young center Alex Newhook.

As for J.T. Miller, I don’t see him moving short of him turning around and asking for a trade.  Trading players before a long-term extension kicks in rarely happens and I don’t think the offers now would be better than what they were being offered pre-extension.  He should still be part of their long-term plans.

There’s not a whole lot Vancouver can really do to dramatically change up the core beyond moving Horvat if an extension can’t be reached.  They’d be selling low on Boeser and Conor Garland while Tyler Myers isn’t going anywhere yet (when his signing bonus is paid though, that’s another story).  I’d be selling high on Luke Schenn who may not be the best defenseman to move but at a $900K cap hit, he’s cheap enough to create a good bidding war.  If they can’t extend Andrei Kuzmenko, I’d be moving him as well.  I’d be trying to move Tanner Pearson as well but I don’t think there’d be much traction there.

Then there’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  With four years left at $7.26MM (excluding Arizona’s portion), that contract isn’t getting any better.  But with two of those buyout years (25/26 and 26/27) costing $4.767MM each, that’s a bit too much of a single-year cap charge to eat right now.  Plus, carrying eight years of dead cap money is hardly ideal.  In the short term, I’m not convinced they can get a better defender for less money than the new guy’s cap hit plus Ekman-Larsson’s cap charge and if they can’t do that, why buy him out?  Ekman-Larsson isn’t a top defender anymore but he’s still more than serviceable.  They don’t have a particularly good or deep back end right now so for now, he stays.

Grocery stick: Right now the Devils seem to be on track for reaching the playoffs. That should make them buyers at the trade deadline. What are they doing with Holtz and Nemec who are their most high-end prospects in my book? Will the Devils flip their top prospects for success this season? They have some valuable depth players on expiring contracts so there won’t be a ‘next season’ for this Devils team. Are they going all in?

Generally speaking, I don’t like the idea of teams going all in after being a non-playoff team.  It’s rare for a team to go from being a cellar dweller to a contender in one fell swoop so why push all the chips in so quickly?  On the other hand, I’m not convinced that the Devils are a sustainable contender as things stand so with things falling into place this season, is it better to take your shot?

The next six weeks or so will go a long way in determining which route they go.  Right now, things are looking good even with their recent struggles but if they continue to slip, the willingness to go all in likely dissipates somewhat.  I don’t think Simon Nemec will be in play but I do think Alexander Holtz could be in the right situation.  That right situation would be getting a young (25 or under) core piece that has at least four years of team control remaining.

As things stand, I think they’re softer buyers.  Andreas Johnsson’s expiring contract won’t carry value but he’s a good enough player that he can be used as a contract matcher which would give them $2.275MM (his cap charge while in the minors) in full-season space to work with.  That’s enough to add a depth piece or two (depending on if the other team retains) and send a message that management believes in this group without risking much of anything in terms of longer-term assets and cap flexibility.

aka.nda: What’s going on with the Sens and Blue Jackets? They gonna be buyers or sellers? Who are the targets? Possibly same question in regard to the Rangers and Flames as well.

Ottawa: They’re a bit of a Wild Card for a couple of reasons.  Can they get back into the Wild Card race?  I think they can.  But with an estate basically running the team right now, what do they have for budget space?  Playoffs were the expectation after a busy summer of upgrades so it’s hard to see them sell.  Besides, other than Cam Talbot, I’m not sure there’s a pending UFA that carries a lot of trade value for them.  I think they’re light buyers in terms of shoring up their depth (there are plenty of possible targets on that front) but I’m intrigued to see if they have something bigger going that requires Nikita Zaitsev’s contract being moved out.

Blue Jackets: The playoffs aren’t an option for them so they’re sellers but this will be a softer sell.  In other words, move the pending UFAs but not the core guys.  Vladislav Gavrikov will fetch a good return and as long as they’re willing to retain half of Gustav Nyquist’s deal, I think they can get a mid-round pick for him plus whatever they get for Korpisalo.  I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Jarmo Kekalainen prefers already-drafted prospects over draft picks as those players better fit the timeline of their young core.

Rangers: We’ve covered the goalie situation already but let’s look at the skaters.  They’ll be buyers barring them falling well out of the playoff race.  I had Vladimir Tarasenko going there in last weekend’s mailbag and that’s the side of the market I expect them to be on.  If there’s a key forward (winger or center), they’ll be inquiring.  Defensively, I think they’ll look to upgrade on their sixth defender; Ben Harpur is a capable depth player but do they really want him in the lineup in the playoffs?  Who they target there depends on the forward they get.

Flames: Right now, they are narrowly holding onto a Wild Card spot.  As long as they stay in that range, I think they’re buyers on the rental front.  With over $80MM in commitments for next season already per CapFriendly, they can’t really afford someone on a multi-year deal.  Depending on what happens with Oliver Kylington, they might want to add a defensive upgrade but otherwise, a top-six winger will be the target.  Having said that, I could see them being a team that sells a bit as well in an effort to try to free up some cap space.  At first glance, Andrew Mangiapane might be someone whose contract they might want to try to get out of.  Maybe the buying move is a player-player swap, not a player-for-futures one that we typically see.

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