PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the potential for an offer sheet this summer, Alexis Lafreniere’s future with the Rangers, Jeremy Swayman’s trade value, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

aka.nda: What wizardry does the Golden Knights’ offseason have in store for us?

Rarely has there been a dull summer for Vegas since they joined the league but I think this offseason could be the exception.  They’re not in a spot where they have to dump salary to be compliant with the salary cap.  I’m sure they’d like to try to re-sign Ivan Barbashev but depending on what happens with other areas, they might not even need to clear money to make that happen.

A lot of their offseason activity this summer will revolve around Robin Lehner.  Is he able to come back?  If yes, then they might want to look to trim some money if they want to realistically try to keep Barbashev in the fold.  Otherwise, they can put him back on LTIR and use his $5MM.  Some of that will go towards a backup to Logan Thompson (likely Adin Hill, Laurent Brossoit, or another veteran netminder) but that won’t cost $5MM alone; they can use some of that plus their cap space and try to keep Barbashev that way.

If they do decide they want to move some money out, Alec Martinez is the logical choice.  He’ll be on an expiring deal next season and isn’t the impact defender he was when he first joined the Golden Knights.  Accordingly, his $5.25MM AAV is on the high side.  They probably won’t be able to clear that full deal without either paying part of it down or giving up other assets but they could take back a forward making a bit less to fill one of the vacancies that will be created in free agency.

Vegas likes to chase down the big deal, I get it.  But there isn’t an elite free agent out there and let’s face it, they probably don’t have the prospect pool and draft capital to make the top offer in the bidding for an impact player on the trade market.  Years of moving picks and prospects will do that to a team.  So perhaps this summer will be a quiet one for Vegas, one that sees them lose a few players but keep the core largely intact.  In other words, the type of summer that befits a strong contender.

gowings2008: What are some 2nd line center options for Detroit heading into next season?

I have some bad news for any team looking for help down the middle this summer – there isn’t much in free agency to get excited about.  Is Max Domi worthy of a long-term commitment to play on the second line?  Maybe but I’m not sure Detroit is the right team to give him that deal.  Has J.T. Compher shown enough to be a legitimate second-liner?  I’m not sold that he’s a 50-point player on the Red Wings.  Ryan O’Reilly (the established veteran, not the Detroit center prospect with the same name) could fit as a short-term option and fits the bridge veteran approach GM Steve Yzerman has taken with some of his pickups in recent years so perhaps he’s an option.  Assuming that Boston’s middlemen re-sign or retire, those three are the top options on the open market.

On the trade front, is the time right for Detroit to push a bunch of chips in to make a big splash and add an impact center?  That’s not typically what a non-playoff team does so I’m not sure they really are too active on this front.  Without many long-term commitments on the books, I wouldn’t be shocked if they kicked the tires on Kevin Hayes in Philadelphia, especially if the Flyers are willing to pay that deal down a little bit.  Then that becomes another bridge veteran approach, someone that can hold a spot while they hope to draft and develop a future impact center.

Honestly, I think the answer to this question is the same player as this year, Andrew Copp.  I like him more as a third-liner but I don’t think Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno are true top-six options at this point in time.  As a result, I think it’s Copp’s spot to lose.

Josh2831: Any players you see that could get a serious offer sheet this summer and could the Predators be the team to make the offer?

Generally speaking, offer sheets are so rare that my answer to a question like this will almost automatically be no.  In most cases, the offer has to be so high above market value to deter the team from matching and when you look at the thresholds, it’s hard to find a price point for a player that the signing team is comfortable with and the other team won’t match.  I don’t think anyone goes above the $8.58MM level and unless the player isn’t that good, whichever team is offer sheeted will match.  Frankly, I think the lower end of the market is where there could be so much more activity (in the third-round range or less) but everyone plays nice on that front so I don’t expect anything to happen there either.

But there is one player who could theoretically be a bigger risk to sign an offer sheet, Pierre-Luc Dubois.  He’s a year away from unrestricted free agency and if Winnipeg was to match a one-year offer sheet, they wouldn’t be able to trade him.  The Jets would then be faced with accepting the draft pick compensation as a return or walking him straight to the open market in 2024.  And if he really wanted to make it interesting, he’d opt for the top of the grid where the compensation is a first-round pick and a third-rounder ($6.435MM).  Doing so probably leaves money on the table but anything higher than that is a punitive price for the signing team for what’s likely to be a one-year rental and Winnipeg would happily take the picks and run and Dubois shouldn’t want to hurt his potential new team.

At that lower price point, it’s a harder call to make, especially if GM Kevin Cheveldayoff wants to give some of this core group one more chance, perhaps with a couple of changes based on how the playoffs went.  Dubois probably wouldn’t sign a multi-year offer as doing so means Winnipeg could match and he’d have to stay longer than he might want to, assuming his end goal is still to move elsewhere.

By the way, I don’t think it would be Montreal, his speculative desired destination, giving him that offer sheet as with where they are in their rebuild, moving an unprotected first-round pick isn’t a good idea, especially if they think they could get him in free agency a year later.  For a contender with some cap space though, that pick is going to be much lower in the first round and such a move becomes more justifiable.

Now, for Nashville specifically, my answer is a question back to you.  Why would they get in on an offer sheet?  They’re a team that appears to be in transition right now, the type of team that shouldn’t be willing to part with unprotected draft picks to sign a player at above-market value.  I don’t see the incentive for them to get in on any offer sheets this summer.

Jasen: With the Rangers being in win-now mode, and the Canadiens being in a rebuild, any chance at all that the Canadiens might be able to trade for Lafreniere? And if yes, would a 1st and A prospect be enough to get the deal done?

Philosophically speaking, a team that’s rebuilding probably shouldn’t be parting with first-round picks but Montreal technically did last year, flipping the first-rounder they got for Alexander Romanov to get Kirby Dach.  So, I suppose it’s possible they could kick the tires, especially since they have an extra pick in the first round in June.  I don’t think they’d go that high with an offer, however, considering he hasn’t been able to consistently crack New York’s top six and the fact that Montreal isn’t at the point yet where they should be moving their top prospects or their first-round pick which will be no worse than seventh overall.  An offer that has Florida’s first-round pick this year (assuming it lands at 17th overall) and a couple of ‘B’ prospects (or equivalent pick) is around as high as I think they’d go right now.  And unless New York has soured on him that much, I don’t think they should take that offer.

As for the Rangers’ side of things, I don’t think the idea of moving Lafreniere is necessarily a bad one.  They’re going to have some tough decisions to make this summer from a cap perspective and while they could try to bridge the 21-year-old to keep the short-term cost down, it’s only kicking the cap problem down the road for a year or two.  Are they better off taking a futures-based return now and using that money to put on a long-term K’Andre Miller contract instead?  I think there’s a case to be made for that approach, especially if New York is hesitant in thinking that Lafreniere will break out and become that top-level talent that made him the first-overall selection back in 2020.  Moving on that quickly from a top pick would sting but if they can get a first-round pick plus an ‘A’ prospect like your proposal suggests, it might be the right move for them to make.  I just don’t see the Canadiens being the team to offer the top package.

SkidRowe: If he’s too expensive to re-sign, what can the Bruins get for Jeremy Swayman in the offseason?

Whenever I get a goalie trade value question, I usually take the answer that comes up in my head and dial it down a peg or two since recent history suggests that goalie trade values aren’t very good.  But I’m not going to do so here.

Here are two quick stat lines to consider before reading further.

Swayman: 88 GP, 2.27 GAA, .920 SV%
Mystery Player: 98 GP, 2.20 GAA, .927 SV%

The mystery player is Cory Schneider and those are his career numbers at the time he was traded at the draft back in 2013 in a deal that saw Vancouver pick up the ninth-overall pick.  Schneider’s numbers are a bit better but Swayman is younger and has more team control (three years) than Schneider did at the time (two years).  If I’m Boston GM Don Sweeney, a first-round pick in that range is what I’m looking for.  Pittsburgh at 14 is the only team that stands out so an equivalent drafted prospect could also be an option, if not potentially preferable if they’re looking to stay in the mix next season.

Granted, there are many teams that eschew the idea of drafting a goalie in the first round.  But there’s a difference between drafting one and getting one who has already shown himself to be an above-average goaltender.  At a time when a lot of teams are looking for quality goaltending, a young, controllable option with an early good track record sounds pretty appealing, even if it costs a first-rounder or equivalent prospect.  It has been a while since a goalie has brought that type of return but I think Swayman can be the exception.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, Toronto’s recent history of first-round exits, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

2012orioles: Do the Capitals look to shop Kuznetsov?

First, GM Brian MacLellan needs to sit down with Kuznetsov’s new agents at Newport to see what the center’s preference is.  It’s no secret that they were listening to offers on him a couple of years ago although nothing came to fruition in terms of a deal.  Since then, the 30-year-old has had one strong season (78 points in 79 games in 2021-22) and one underwhelming campaign (55 points in 81 games this season).

Kuznetsov only has two years left on his deal after this one which actually helps Washington a bit if they do look to move him.  Yes, his price tag of $7.8MM is on the high end, especially if he keeps hovering in the 50-60-point range but a team that’s looking for a short-term stopgap until a prospect is ready for that role could find him more desirable than someone who’s signed long-term, even if that player has a lesser AAV.  I’m not saying they’d get a premium return or anything but I think there would be a decent trade market.

But at the end of the day, the answer to this question is likely dictated by MacLellan’s intentions for next season.  If they’re rebuilding, he probably goes.  If they’re looking for a quick retool and to get back in the playoff picture next season, I think Kuznetsov stays, barring a public trade request that might force their hand.  With Nicklas Backstrom no longer the player he once was and their young middlemen (Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre) not ready for tough NHL minutes yet, they need Kuznetsov if they’re aiming for a Wild Card spot or better next season.

joebad34: Do the Sabres move on from Okposo and Girgensons? What defenseman would they potentially look to pursue in a trade or free agency to fill a top-four spot? Is Dumba a fit?

Let’s start with the forwards.  If Kyle Okposo wants to come back, I think Buffalo will have a spot for him.  It might not be particularly high on the depth chart but I suspect they’d like to keep their captain in the fold as this is still a pretty young roster overall.  This is a group that will have playoff aspirations next season so having a veteran that has the respect of the team wouldn’t hurt.  Plus, Okposo can still be effective in a limited role.

I don’t expect Zemgus Girgensons to be back though.  If they want to make a push for a postseason spot, they’ll need to upgrade their roster this summer and that’s one roster spot they can upgrade on.  Girgensons is a capable fourth-line pivot but after nine years with Buffalo, a change of scenery wouldn’t hurt.

As for the defensemen, Mathew Dumba is a logical target on the free agent market.  He’s capable of logging big minutes and plays on the right side which is where their depth is a bit weak.  I also think there’s a bit of an upside play in signing him if he can get back to his old form.  The one question I have though is how much does Buffalo want to spend long-term on the back end?  Rasmus Dahlin is going to be very expensive in 2024-25 as will Owen Power.  Mattias Samuelsson is already on a long-term deal.  You’re probably looking at well over $20MM for those three at that time; can they afford another bigger-ticket deal in their salary structure and if they can, do they want to?

As for other free agent targets, Damon Severson is also in Dumba’s tier but the same questions exist.  If they want to go for a shorter-term pickup, Kevin Shattenkirk and John Klingberg are veteran right-shot players that could give them an offensive boost, take a regular shift, and balance out the lineup without being a long-term commitment on the books.  If they’re shopping in the short-term tier, Anthony DeAngelo could be a trade target and if Nashville sticks with the rebuild, Tyson Barrie should be available as well.  They’re both on expiring deals which might be appealing.

Gbear: Does new Preds GM Barry Trotz keep John Hynes behind the bench or move on from him?

Jakeattack: Do you think Trotz will try to move either Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene this summer?

Let’s combine the Nashville queries.  Two months ago, I would have leaned toward a coaching change.  The fire sale was on and if a new era was beginning, why not do so with a new coach?  But then the Predators had quite a run down the stretch with the team coming to life.  If Trotz thinks there’s any chance of that being sustainable, it’d be hard to move on from Hynes.

He has one year left on his deal which gives Trotz an easy option to kick the can down the road.  Let him start on an expiring contract and if things go sideways early on, make an in-season change for an interim option and at that point, it’s probably heading toward a rebuild.  If things go well, let the season play out and re-assess 12 months from now.  I think he stays but I will say this, I am not doing well at predicting what happens in Nashville this season and if recent history repeats itself, this prediction might not hold up for long.

Unlike that coaching prediction, I’m actually confident in this next one.  Yes, Trotz will try to move those two, Johansen especially.  At $8MM apiece for at least two more years (Johansen is signed through 2024-25, Duchene 2025-26), they’re not getting a great return on those deals.  Neither has emerged as a capable top center and while Duchene’s a capable number two, that’s a big price tag for someone in that role.  That money could likely be more efficiently spent elsewhere.

Of course, 31 other teams around the league know that.  The time to move Duchene was probably a year ago when he had 43 goals and 86 points.  His performance this season only dipped his value.  Johansen, meanwhile, is coming off a 28-point campaign, albeit one that saw him miss 27 games due to injuries.  Unless they’re swapping a bad contract for another bad contract (and in a market where so many teams are capped out, that can’t entirely be ruled out), I don’t expect there to be any interest in him.  Trotz I’m sure will try to move these contracts but it’ll be much easier said than done.

W H Twittle: Is there a rational explanation for the Leafs’ playoff successes?

Assuming you mean their lack of playoff success, I think there is.  In those series, they lost the goaltending battle.  In 2017, it was Braden Holtby allowing two goals or fewer in three games, all Toronto losses.  In 2018, Tuukka Rask wasn’t great in that series but he outplayed Frederik Andersen.  The next year, Rask was much better.

In the bubble, Columbus’ goalies picked two shutouts in five games.  A year later, Carey Price did just enough to outduel Jack Campbell to kickstart Montreal’s improbable run to the Final.  And last season, Andrei Vasilevskiy was between the pipes.  All in all, three future Hall of Famers, another goalie who led his team to the Stanley Cup, and Columbus’ netminders shining.

One can discuss the coaching and the underachieving stars and that’s fine.  But if you’re looking for a quick, simple, rational explanation, Toronto got ‘goalied’ in several of their recent quick playoff exits.

Gmm8811: Who do you see as up-and-coming AHL coaches? Have you heard of any recent former players that want to make the jump to coaching?

If you’re asking about up-and-coming AHL coaches that could soon make the jump to the NHL, Mitch Love (Calgary) should be the first to come to mind.  He just won Coach of the Year there for the second season in a row and had a good run with WHL Saskatoon before that.  Just 38, he’s the type of young coach that someone should take a chance on.  I’d also put Marco Sturm in that mix.  He’s the coach of the Kings’ affiliate in Ontario.  With his experience there plus internationally as a coach, I think he’ll get a chance at some point.

As for recent former players, those that want to coach somewhere typically are able to do so, either at the junior or minor league level.  Accordingly, I don’t really have a list of former players that are looking to join those ranks; if they want to, they’re probably already there.  I’ll give you one name to keep an eye on though in Marc Savard, head coach with OHL Windsor.  While they were a surprisingly quick exit in the playoffs this year, that franchise has done pretty well in his limited time there and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone offers him an AHL head coaching job or an assistant spot on an NHL bench for next season.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion of the potential rebuild coming in Philadelphia, possible changes for Pittsburgh next season, and whether we’ll see a goalie ever go first overall again.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

HockeyBoz: Do you think the Red Wings will look to ADD a bona fide #1 center? I think Yzerman OVER-PAID big time on Larkin as he is NOT a #1 center and can not drive a team as all the homers here in Detroit think. He is the best player on an average at best team. They need goal-scorers!

I don’t expect them to be adding a middleman that’s better than Dylan Larkin in the near future.  The simple reason for that is this – I don’t think there will be any that are available.  Detroit isn’t in a position to be trying to go all-in here; they’re a few steps away from that.  The slow, steady build is clearly what they’re planning to do and with that, they can get away with the status quo with Larkin on the top line for a little while yet.

As for him being overpaid, I’m not sure I agree with that.  We saw what Bo Horvat got from the Islanders at $8.5MM.  His teammate Mathew Barzal checks in next year at $9.1MM.  Roope Hintz is at $8.45MM with similar numbers this season to Larkin.  Relative to market value at least, Larkin seems to fit in pretty close to where he should be on that scale.

Now, if you want to make the case that spending that type of money on a 1B type of center isn’t ideal, that’s fair.  But with a dearth of free agents available, Larkin would have been the best center on the market this summer.  Could they really afford to lose him?  How much of a step back would that be to their timeline?  Those are factors that I imagine Yzerman took into consideration when they handed out this deal.

In a perfect world, I think Detroit’s goal is to draft and develop a center that could one day supplant Larkin on the top line, pushing the captain down to the second trio.  But finding one from outside the organization is going to be tough as those players just aren’t available all that often.

Black Ace57: I know I ask this almost every time, but after Chuck being fired and what people at the top have said are the Flyers finally going to do the proper rebuild they need?

When it comes to the rebuild, I’m a lot more confident of it happening now than I was prior to the trade deadline.  Notwithstanding the odd timing of Chuck Fletcher’s firing (if you’re letting him go a week after the deadline, why not make the move before then to let Briere show what he could do?), the intended separation of duties into two positions should ease them into a rebuilding direction.

First-time general managers don’t often come in with win-now expectations and I suspect that trend will continue as, like many, I figure Briere will have the interim tag lifted and the new president will work with Briere to chart a new direction.

As for whether it’s a proper rebuild, I suppose that depends on your definition of the word proper.  Does that mean a five-year, burn-it-to-the-ground strategy?  I don’t think that’s their intention.  Instead, a shorter-term process that churns out some of their veterans and brings in some picks and prospects to add to their current young core is where I think they’ll lean.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: Say the Flyers remove the interim tag from Briere, and name you Pres. of Ops…following Torts’ comments that subtraction is needed before addition, who are you keeping/cutting amongst these:

Keepers: Couturier, Laughton, Konecny, Tippett, Ersson, Frost, Foerster, Noah Cates, York, Seeler

Available for the right Deal: Frost, Hart, Provorov, Farabee, Ristolainen, DeAngelo

Time to Move on: JVR, Hayes, Bellows, Braun

On the Fence: Sanheim, Atkinson

Obvious caveat that some of these contracts are going to be hard to move…

Well, hiring me is one way to mess up the rebuild but I’ll play along.  I’ll leave the pending UFAs off my list as they’re almost certainly moving on already.

Keepers: Tippett, Frost, Foerster, York, Hart, Cates

Available For Right Deal: Laughton, Konecny, Ersson, Seeler, Ersson, Farabee, Sanheim, Provorov

Looking To Move: Hayes, Atkinson, Couturier, Ristolainen, DeAngelo, Sandstrom, Bellows (likely non-tender)

Some quick rationale on some of the revised placements.  I’m not sold that Samuel Ersson is their goalie of the future.  He has done decently in limited action but I’m not moving on from Carter Hart to anoint Ersson their new starter if it’s up to me.  24 isn’t too old for a rebuild, especially since goalies tend to hit their primes a little later than skaters.  I’m looking to extend him and if it winds up being a longer rebuild than planned, look at moving him then.

Travis Konecny only has two years left on his deal and if it’s an extended rebuild, is he part of the future plans?  If someone wants to pay up for the contract which is a below-market one, that’s going to be a pretty valuable return.  That return likely fits my timeline better than an extended Konecny two years from now.

The other big change from my list is Sean Couturier.  Nothing against him but that was a bad contract the day it was signed.  He still has some time left as a legitimate top-six middleman, assuming he’s back to full health next season.  I’d be looking to get out of that contract while he still has some short-term utility to a team before it becomes a deal that they’ll have to pay a high price to get out of down the road.

On the back end, Travis Sanheim’s extension basically locks him in as part of the plans for now.  Ivan Provorov would be the likelier of the two to move as he’s basically in the same spot as Konecny.  Anthony DeAngelo isn’t going to be part of their long-term plans for a rebuild and Rasmus Ristolainen is a contract they’d probably like to get out of but he’ll probably stick around for a while.

Gmm8811: So far, I like what Army has done with acquiring assets and the pickups of Vrana and Kapanen. I still believe he has to clear some cap space. Do you think Krug is the one to go assuming he’d waive his NMC? Would Parayko? Both? Binnington has become more of liability and is a head case. I’ve heard he would only waive in order to go to Toronto, but that doesn’t seem a likely option.

Let’s look at the cap situation first.  Per CapFriendly, they have $76.8MM committed to 18 players for next season, leaving $6.7MM in room to sign four or five players.  There aren’t many prominent pending free agents; I’d put Alexey Toropchenko as their best RFA and Thomas Greiss as their best UFA.  So, do they have to clear money?  Probably not, especially if they’re looking at taking a step back for a year.  There’s enough cap room in there to bring up Joel Hofer as the backup, re-sign Toropchenko, add/promote a few players making around $1MM, and call it a day.

I don’t think the right question around Torey Krug is whether he’d waive his trade protection.  The question is will anyone want him?  It has not been a good year for him, to put it nicely.  With four years left on his deal at $6.5MM and declining production, he’s not exactly going to be in demand; St. Louis would likely need to pay down the contract and incentivize a team to take him on.  That isn’t to say his value can’t improve and he’ll have trade value down the road but right now, he doesn’t.

As for Colton Parayko, the long injury history would scare me off if I was a GM, as would a $6.5MM cap hit through 2029-30.  But his combination of size and skill is hard to come by so there would be some interest.  But unless St. Louis is planning on going through an extended rebuild, I don’t think GM Doug Armstrong will be actively looking to move him.  If this is a quick turnaround, he’ll be part of their future plans.

Then there’s Jordan Binnington.  The on-ice antics certainly aren’t helping things but the on-ice performance is hurting him even more.  He’s making $6MM for four more years and has a save percentage that doesn’t crack the top 40 among qualifying netminders.  Forget the other things and just look at his performance, it’s not going to have anyone wanting to trade for him.  He might want to play for his hometown team although that’s straight-up speculation at this point.  But, like Krug, Binnington is going to have to be a lot better next season to have a chance of moving.

bapthemailman: What will the Penguins roster look like next year?

I expect the core will mostly stay in place.  With their long-time veterans locked up, I don’t think they’re heading for any sort of rebuild.  However, there will be some changes.

To me, Tristan Jarry is a legitimate starting goalie in the NHL.  However, his propensity for injuries is going to make it awfully difficult to commit a long-term contract at starter money this summer.  I expect them to take a look at the trade market in June and I wouldn’t be shocked if their opening night starter is someone that currently isn’t in their organization.  That’s one change.

On the back end, I could see the team moving on from Brian Dumoulin.  While Ty Smith plays a completely different style, Dumoulin’s departure would open up a full-time spot for Smith who should be an important part of their future.  Having spent the bulk of this season in the minors, Smith’s next contract shouldn’t be more than $1.5MM which would give Pittsburgh a chance to shift some spending elsewhere.  If Dmitry Kulikov is willing to sign for close to what the Penguins are covering on his deal ($1.15MM), I think they’d happily do that in the hopes of having to avoid trying to trade for more depth at the deadline next season.

Up front, I think they’ll take a run at extending Jason Zucker, albeit at a price tag that’s lower than his current $5.5MM AAV.  If they can’t re-sign him, they’ll have space to look for another forward.  I could see them focusing on a center.  Yes, Mikael Granlund, their big deadline acquisition, can play down the middle but he’s much better off on the wing.  Adding someone to that third line that can take some pressure (and playing time) away from Jeff Carter would be nice.  Off the top of my head, someone like Lars Eller would fit that bill.

I don’t expect the Penguins to have a lot of cap space heading into next season as I believe they will be looking to keep this team in the playoff mix.  There could be a few changes among the veterans in an effort to try to shake things up but for the most part, there should be a lot of familiarity with this group heading into 2023-24.

Grocery Stick: How is Toronto looking if they don’t give a new contract to their GM this offseason? Selling off hugely for a new start? Or will they still try to find a way to be a contender next season?

In this scenario, I believe the Maple Leafs would have several quality executives trying to land that job while saying that they have a plan to win now without blowing up that core group.  There is simply too much talent on Toronto for someone to turn around and say that it’s time to blow it all up.

Could there be a coaching change if Tampa Bay ousts them in the first round again?  Sure, it’s possible.  Is it even possible that whoever is running the team – Kyle Dubas or someone else – decides to move one of their core four players?  Yep.  Extension talks with Auston Matthews and William Nylander (which can happen this summer) will give them an idea about the potential ability (or inability) to keep this group together with those discussions potentially shaping their plans this summer.  But even at that, that’s one piece being traded for another key piece, not a drastic change.

The other reason I can’t see them beginning a full-scale rebuild is this – they don’t have many of their own draft picks.  If you’re going to rebuild and finish low in the standings, you lose the benefit of doing so by not having those selections.  Toronto’s 2025 first-round pick has limited protection and they don’t have a second-rounder until 2027.  The last thing they’d want is them struggling and other teams reaping the benefits.

I think Toronto can win with this core group even with their previous playoff performances.  I’m sure many others around the league do as well.  Whoever is in charge next season is likely to have that same mindset.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the upcoming playoffs, Anaheim’s coaching situation, injuries in Los Angeles, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch to see if it appears in next weekend’s mailbag.

Zakis: Why hasn’t the Wild brought Rossi back up? They could use scoring and are always searching for centers.

When Minnesota made the decision to send Marco Rossi down to AHL Iowa in late November, the idea was that they wanted to give him some consistent playing time in an offensive role.  The move has proven to be a good one as he’s hovering around the point-per-game mark which is a small improvement over last season.  On merit, he has certainly earned another look.

Here’s the thing.  Could they have used him when the roster was basically thinned out which was the case up until a couple of games ago?  Sure.  However, even with the injuries, they never got to the point of qualifying for an emergency recall.  Now that we’re after the trade deadline, the dreaded four-recall rule is in effect which basically means that teams are limited to four non-emergency recalls until their affiliates’ season is done (including playoffs).

Because they had enough bodies to avoid emergency recall status, they’d have had to have burned one of those recalls to bring Rossi up.  And now, with most of the forwards back to being healthy (aside from Kirill Kaprizov), there wouldn’t really be any room for Rossi in the lineup, at least in a role that is optimal for his development and Minnesota’s success.  (Playing him eight minutes on the fourth line isn’t doing anyone any good.)  Is it worth burning one of those recalls and disrupting his momentum for a short-term stint?  It appears GM Bill Guerin felt the answer was no.

The Duke: Dear Crystal Ball: please provide the fortunes for Nicholas Robertson, Alexander Holtz, Luke Hughes, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. BONUS BOUNTY: Who are the Final 4 and who wins the Stanley Cup? Kind regards.

Robertson: Things haven’t gone well for him in the pros, have they?  He has lost a lot of development time due to injuries, that’s for sure.  Robertson feels like the type of player that probably best fits in on an offensive third line that can move up when injuries arise or if he has chemistry with a specific center.  Despite how long he has been out, he can still be an important part of Toronto’s group, especially as a cost-controlled player that should be able to produce as long as he can stay healthy.

Holtz: It hasn’t been a great start for Holtz to his career in North America.  He has done well in the minors but it has yet to translate to much NHL success.  On the other hand, he’s only 21, leaving plenty of time for development.  I still think he will be a top-six forward down the road.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he became a top liner still for that matter.

Hughes: The presence of Dougie Hamilton will limit Hughes’ offensive output, at least early on.  With Hamilton logging big minutes including some power play time, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Hughes around the 30-35-point mark early on.  Long term, 50+ points should be achievable on an annual basis which would have him in the top 20 league-wide.  I’m not sure he’ll see 25 minutes a night like a typical number one defenseman but Hughes should produce like one.

Luukkonen: It has been a bit of an up-and-down first extended taste of NHL action, hasn’t it?  I’m not sure he’s the goalie of the future for Buffalo but he’s a goalie of the future for Buffalo.  In an era that is becoming more reliant on platoons, Luukkonen should be able to fill one of those spots as long as he can wean down the erratic performances and become more consistent.  If he and Devon Levi can cover anywhere between 35-50 games each per season, they’ll be thrilled.

Bonus: I think I had the Stars and Bruins as the Cup Final matchup in the last mailbag and I’ll stick with that prediction for now with Boston winning.  As for the other two conference finalists?  I think the Rangers come out of the Metropolitan and one of Edmonton’s goalies gets on a hot streak to get the Oilers out of the Pacific.

baji kimran: I know you don’t own a crystal ball, but what do you think are the chances the following three centers who will be on expiring contracts next year get traded before the end of next year or hit the open market next summer?

1. Elias Lindholm. Calgary may not want to head toward a rebuild, especially with that awful Huberdeau contract, but if they struggle to compete, it may make sense to move him.
2. Auston Matthews. The Leafs have until July 1st to extend him or his no-movement clause kicks in and it will be harder to move him if he isn’t willing to pursue an extension. When he does sign, it will be the largest deal ever and the Leafs are also faced with trying to keep Nylander, who will also be on an expiring contract. Some think Matthews wants to go to Arizona, but if they can’t pass the vote to build a new arena, that won’t be a wise move. In that instance, L.A. becomes the favorite.
3. Anze Kopitar. Kopitar still plays at a high level, but with the Kings locked into Danault for three more years and their probable desire to sign Roy, Kempe, Byfield, and Lizotte to extensions, Kopitar could become an odd man out, especially if Matthews were to land in L.A.

Wait, I’m confused now.  Didn’t I just have a crystal ball a moment ago?  Where did it go?  Oh well, onto the questions.

1) I expect the Flames to take a real run at re-signing Lindholm this summer.  If they can’t get something done, I think the odds of him being moved are quite high, think in the 75% range.  I think Calgary has shown this season that their core as constructed isn’t good enough to contend.  They’re better than they’re playing but even a different coach isn’t going to vault them into contender status.  Maybe there’s a bump to get them into a playoff spot but that’s not the same as a contender.  If they need to change up the core, the logical place to start from is a player who, in this scenario, doesn’t want to re-sign.  Yes, they could keep Lindholm and look to move him in-season which is why that percentage isn’t even higher.  But if that’s the route that they take, they’re probably running it back.  I just can’t see them doing that.

2) Technically, Toronto can only extend Matthews on July 1st which happens to coincide with the trade protection.  While they’re not supposed to negotiate before then, we all know that rule isn’t exactly followed.  I expect the Maple Leafs will hand Matthews the richest contract in NHL history sometime this offseason, at least from an AAV perspective; it might not be a max term.  Does that force Nylander out?  Probably, but with John Tavares’ deal only being one year longer than Matthews’, they’re not going to willingly run the risk of losing two high-end middlemen.  If Matthews wants to stay, they’ll get something done.  If he wants to wait and see what happens in 2023-24, I think they’ll still hold onto him.  I’ll go with a 5% chance that he’s moved which is basically the scenario of him saying I won’t re-sign so trade me to where I want to go.

3) My first thought was that they wouldn’t want to trade a franchise legend.  My second was they just traded one last month so that first thought might not hold up.  But I don’t think there’s much of a desire to move him.  He has one year left after this season which lines up with Matthews so in your scenario of Matthews signing in Los Angeles, they’d probably just let Kopitar walk at the same time.  Of the potential extensions, they’d all kick in after Kopitar’s deal is up so they don’t need to trade him to free up room for those contracts.  I can’t say 0% odds here with what happened with Quick so I’ll go with a 1% chance he’s traded.

Breakaway: 1). Who do you predict will be the four wild card teams?

2). Which one of those four teams can make some “noise” in the playoffs?

3). Who, if anyone, can knock the Bruins out of the playoffs?

1) In the East, I expect the Penguins will find a way to back their way in.  The Islanders are fragile but I think they’ll just stay ahead of the Panthers.  Out West, the Jets seem like a safe bet for one of the spots; they’ll be in tough to move up in the Central with everyone else having games in hand.  It’d be funny if the Predators got in after selling but I don’t think they will and instead, the Kraken will get the other spot.

2) I’ll go with the Islanders here.  Ilya Sorokin is capable of stealing some games on his own and they already play lower-scoring games that the playoffs often bring.  It might not be a run like they had in 2020-21 when they nearly beat Tampa Bay to make the Stanley Cup Final but they could surprise.  Connor Hellebuyck could do the same but Winnipeg has been too erratic lately to count on.

3) The Maple Leafs match up fairly well and if that winds up being a second-round matchup, it wouldn’t shock me if they won.  In the Metro, both the Rangers and Hurricanes would have a chance to win a series.  Boston is still the prohibitive favorite, no doubt, but any of those teams could knock them out before the Final without it necessarily being too surprising.

JustPete: The Anaheim Ducks are mired in a multi-season “rebuild”. Frankly, they are difficult to watch. Their offensive efforts are seemingly limited to the dump and chase as they cannot skate or pass the puck into the offensive zone. They play an awful zone defense that often leaves a defender open in the slot. While they have flashes of skilled play, it is mostly haphazard play without speed or organization.

They have a “core” of good skill players – who don’t work together.

My question is whether it is time for a coaching change. I cannot fathom how they can play this badly. They look like a rudderless ship meandering through the rink.

I do expect there to be a coaching change in Anaheim.  From the moment that Pat Verbeek took over as GM, I expected Dallas Eakins would be let go on the day following the end of the 2022-23 regular season.

We saw at the AHL level that he wasted little time shaking up the staff in San Diego even with Joel Bouchard having term left on his deal.  However, there’s a big difference between AHL coach money and NHL coach money.  For a season that Anaheim wasn’t expected to go anywhere, paying for two coaches on a team that’s not a cap spender didn’t make economic sense.  But Eakins is in the final year of his contract so I think they’ve elected to play out this season and then simply not renew his deal, thereby paving the way for a new coach later this spring.

The Ducks have a decent young foundation to work with plus some promising offensive-minded prospects on the horizon.  Accordingly, I expect their next bench boss to be someone that wants to play more up-tempo with an emphasis on player development in the short term.  Verbeek has been around long enough going back to his time as an assistant GM to have a good idea of the type of coach he’ll want and a list of candidates that could fit the bill.

Read more

After two mailbags last weekend that focused on the trade deadline last weekend, we turn our focus to the non-deadline questions with including Ron Hextall’s future with Pittsburgh, officiating, and more.

2012orioles: Do the Caps sell? And if so, is Orlov a trade candidate? Could they still bring him back in the offseason if he’s traded?

Well, we know the answer to the first two questions as yes, they sold and yes, Dmitry Orlov was traded.  So, let’s focus on the possibility of him returning next season.

Generally speaking, players that are traded at the deadline rarely go back to the team that dealt them.  That’s not to say it doesn’t happen but off the top of my head, I can only think of a handful of pricey veterans that ultimately went back to the team that moved them.  I expect that Orlov won’t be in that minority.

Prior to being dealt to Boston, the Capitals and Orlov’s camp took a real run at trying to get an extension done but reports at the time suggested the two sides weren’t exactly close with term being the sticking point; Washington wanted a shorter-term deal than Orlov.

I can certainly understand why Orlov is looking for a long-term pact.  He’ll be entering his age-32 season in 2023-24.  This is his last shot at a long-term agreement, one that likely would take him close to retirement.  He should have a good shot at getting it too.  But at the same time, I understand why Washington was hesitant to give him a long-term deal as those last couple of seasons might not age well given the hard minutes Orlov has played over the years.

Is it possible that one side has a change of heart in July?  Sure.  But I don’t think much is going to change over the next few months that definitively makes someone change their mind.  If he doesn’t re-sign with Boston, he’ll be one of the top free agent blueliners on the open market and someone will give Orlov a long-term deal.

The Duke: OK, Crystal Ball, let’s hear some wiley wisdom: 1. Which teams meet in the Stanley Cup Final – and who wins it? 2. Which 3 or 4 players currently in the minors make a scoring impact in the NHL next season? 3. Who are your Top-5 forwards, Top-3 offensive D-men, and Top-3 goaltenders in the upcoming NHL draft? As, always, thanks in advance!

1) Boston has been the favorite in the East basically all season long and bolstered their lineup at the deadline.  It’s hard not to go with them coming out of their conference.  In the West, Colorado is the trendy pick with the expectation that they’ll find their stride down the stretch.  But that’s too easy of a pick for this.  I’ll go off the board a bit and say Dallas to come out of the West.  They have strong goaltending, are good defensively, and have impressive scoring depth.  As for who wins in this too early to predict Final, I’ll go with Boston.

2) When this question came out, William Eklund was still in the minors so let’s go with him.  The Sharks wisely have slow-played his development and he’ll be ready to play a bigger role next year because of it.  Alexander Holtz is finally in the minors but I expect he’ll be back in the NHL next season and he has too much offensive upside to have another year like this one.  I think we’ll see some turnover coming in Calgary next year which could pave the way for Connor Zary to get an extended look.  Ridly Greig might not put up a lot of points right away in Ottawa but I think he’ll make an impact at least.

3) The ball hasn’t dug too deep into this year’s class of prospects yet so this could certainly change closer to the draft but here goes:

Forwards: Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson, Zach Benson

Defense: David Reinbacher, Mikhail Gulyayev, Axel Sandin-Pellikka

Goalies: Carson Bjarnason, Jacob Fowler, Scott Ratzlaff

W H Twittle: This was the year that the Sens, Sabres, and Wings were expected to take the next step in their respective claims to a playoff spot. What happened?

Boy, things have changed in the couple of weeks since this question came up.  Generally speaking, I think things have gone somewhat as expected for two of the three at least.

Ottawa: They’re the big underachiever out of the group.  I thought they’d have been legitimately in the Wild Card battle at least.  Now, they’re on a nice little run and just added Jakob Chychrun so they’re definitely staying in the battle for a Wild Card spot.  While they certainly won’t be favored if they get to the playoffs, just getting there and playing meaningful games in April is an important step to take for that franchise.

Buffalo: With due respect to Craig Anderson (who’s having a nice year) and Eric Comrie, is that really a playoff-caliber goalie tandem?  I think the expectations for the Sabres this season were to be more competitive while assessing the improvement of their young core.  I think they’re about where they figured to be, a non-playoff team but considerably more competitive.

Detroit: I had them a bit like Buffalo, more competitive but still on the outside looking in.  I think they could have made enough of a run to get into a Wild Card spot had they been buyers at the deadline but they pivoted to selling after seeing other teams load up.  They haven’t made their big splash yet that really signifies they’re in the mix so them still being on the outside looking in doesn’t surprise me.

jdgoat: Do the Senators make sense for an Erik Karlsson reunion?

Technically, this was a trade deadline question but I wasn’t expecting Karlsson to move so I pushed it to this column.  I think it would have been neat to see him go back and there certainly would have been a role for him to fill but I don’t think it was a realistic option (and this is before they went and added Chychrun).

Very quickly, Ottawa’s core group has gotten more expensive.  Joshua Norris, Brady Tkachuk, and Thomas Chabot are all around the $8MM mark.  Alex DeBrincat will join that group when he signs his next deal this summer which is going to check in around his $9MM qualifying offer.  Even with San Jose hypothetically retaining 25% of the contract, Karlsson would still be in that group.  That’s five players making what would be close to 50% of the Upper Limit next season.  Let’s not forget Claude Giroux at $6.5MM while we’re at it.  They can’t really afford any more big-ticket contracts.  That’s why getting Chychrun on a below-market contract is such a nice pickup for them.

It’s also worth noting the Nikita Zaitsev deal which saw them send Chicago a pair of draft picks to take on his contract.  If they don’t make that move, they don’t get Chychrun.  Not for cap reasons but for budgetary reasons; with an ownership situation that’s clearly in flux, they don’t have the green light to add significant payroll right now.  That alone takes the idea of Karlsson going there off the table until a new ownership group steps in.  It would have been neat to see but Karlsson returning to the Senators probably isn’t a viable option anytime soon.

@TheeDavidDoonan: Why won’t the Penguins fire Hextall?

I was hesitant about pushing this question here in case Pittsburgh GM Ron Hextall went out and had, let’s call it, a redemptive deadline.  I don’t think he did.  Without digging into what happened too much, willingly taking on two more years of Mikael Granlund after this one at $5MM per season was not the type of upgrade many were hoping for or expecting to see.

However, that upgrade falls within the parameters of their expectations as a team that’s trying to win now.  With the veteran core group they have, a full-scale rebuild isn’t happening.  Being as close to the playoffs as they are, merely selling off their free agents wasn’t going to drop them far enough in the standings to be in the mix for a high draft pick in June.  So, even though it could be an exercise in futility in the end with the way several other Eastern teams loaded up, he went and added to his roster.

Barring a new directive from ownership, one that is more amenable to at least a short-term retooling, I don’t see a change coming.  Hextall is barely two years into his tenure which is on the short side for general managers who typically get longer leashes than head coaches.  As long as Pittsburgh stays in the playoff mix, I expect them to stay on their current trajectory and continue to operate as they did this week as a team that’s going to try to hang around the playoff picture.

Read more

With the trade deadline now less than a week away, the focus of the mailbag this weekend will be questions pertaining to trades and the upcoming deadline.  With so many deadline questions submitted, we’ve split this weekend’s mailbag in two so be sure to check back in yesterday’s column if you don’t see yours submitted here.  Next week, the focus will primarily be on the non-deadline queries (with a couple of trade ones in there as well).

One More JAGR: Do the Pens finally realize they aren’t gonna crack the playoffs this year with how competitive the Metro is, how uncompetitive the Pens are, and how they have pretty much no cap to address any of the multiple issues plaguing the team? Do they instead look towards the offseason and will the plan be to let the UFA’s walk and try to trade some cap out in hopes that the closing window on the big three can be better next season? Also is it finally Sully’s time to be out and try to go get Trotz?

I think it’s too early to say the Penguins aren’t going to make it.  A divisional seed isn’t happening but they can catch and pass the Islanders in the Wild Card race if they win their games in hand.  Granted, their recent performances aren’t exactly inspiring much hope that they can win those games, tonight being a notable exception.

I touched on this earlier this month but there is no good option here.  They can’t truly rebuild with their veteran core locked up long-term.  They can’t fall far enough down to really tank for a high draft pick.  But they’re not good enough to contend either.  I still think that if there’s a low-risk upgrade they can make (clearing Kasperi Kapanen’s cap hit off the books gives them some flexibility), they’ll do it over the next few days even though there’s a case to make that doing so defies logic.

Among their pending UFAs, I suspect that they want to re-sign Tristan Jarry.  Brian Dumoulin’s value isn’t great at this point so they wouldn’t get much for him.  There might be some interest in Jason Zucker but it’s not going to be a top return.  And their other expirings are depth guys where the interest is going to be limited at best.  There’s not enough to really restock the cupboard.

As for the coaching situation, I think we can rule out Trotz taking over behind the bench in Pittsburgh with him poised to become the next GM in Nashville.  (Obviously, this question came well before the Trotz news broke.)

@iwtfwc: WHAT are @Avalanche going 2 do? Many “LINKED” players off the board & still injured, also Landeskog’s return timeline unsure, your thoughts? And, at this point in time, thoughts on this list?

M.Domi
N. Bjugstad
J. Puljujarvi
J. McCabe
L. Schenn

Chris MacFarland’s hands are tied right now until he has a better understanding of when (or if) Gabriel Landeskog and Erik Johnson can return.  If both can’t come back, they’ll have a ton of cap space to work with and can shop at the high end of the market.  If one can’t come back, they’ll still be able to add a smaller piece or two.  If both are likely to be back though, then they’re looking at more or less having to match money.  Right now, they’re going to wait as a few more days might give them the clarity they need to know which way they’re going to proceed.  I expect them to try to be a buyer either way, it’s just a matter of knowing which part of the market they’ll be shopping in.

As for your list, I’d take off Jake McCabe.  With two years left and Chicago wanting a first-round pick if they’re going to retain money, that one doesn’t work.  I’m not sure Jesse Puljujarvi is worth getting either unless it’s a deal right before the buzzer sounds and they have extra room to burn.  Luke Schenn makes a lot of sense on paper but without a second-rounder or a third-rounder in the next two seasons, will they be able to be the top bidder?  Would they move a 2025 second-rounder to get him?  If other teams are offering thirds this season or next, they’ll have to go up a round to cover the longer wait.

I like Max Domi as a secondary option.  He can play center and the wing and while I’m not sure he’d be able to produce at a similar rate as he is with Chicago (46 points in 57 games), he’d give them some more options in their middle six.  But again, without seconds and thirds in the next two years, that move might be tricky to make as I assume their first-rounder isn’t in play.  Nick Bjugstad could help in the bottom six and if Arizona is okay with a 2024 fourth-round pick for him, sure, that would make sense.  I think they might get more than that though with his contract and the year he’s having.

If they do have LTIR money to spend, I could see them being interested in a player like Gustav Nyquist who’s out for the season but should be back for the playoffs.  Sean Monahan, if he’s in that situation, would be another option on that front.  Lars Eller is another possible target with Washington now selling.  If Johnson is going to be out for a while, Nick Jensen might be a target for a replacement on the right side of the back end as well.

Zakis: With the Wild in NHL purgatory and having a solid set of prospects, would it be better to sell or buy at the trade deadline? What direction do you see them going?

Follow-up question: what would Hartman get in a trade?

I’ve flip-flopped on this one a few times in recent weeks.  Considering they’re in a playoff spot at the moment, it’s hard to make a case to sell, especially as their dead cap costs go up next year from the increases to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts.  This might be their best shot for a little bit.  On the other hand, they’re pretty much certain that they won’t be able to re-sign Matt Dumba and the idea of losing him for nothing isn’t ideal.

I keep coming back to them doing a bit of both.  In a perfect world, they find a spot for Dumba and then turn around and get a capable replacement, perhaps using part of the return for Dumba with the net gain being an upgraded draft pick or something like that.  His performance this season makes that a challenge though so admittedly, I don’t expect that to happen; I think he stays put.  I think they’d like to open up money for next season so if there’s a move to be made to do that, it’d be hard not to but that also potentially qualifies as a seller move.

However, with them having plenty of cap space, they can absorb some pricey expiring contracts and add to their depth.  I could see them sniffing around in the final hour before the deadline looking to simply relieve some teams of a player for a late-round pick or equivalent return that ultimately sees them upgrade a depth spot or two without really giving up much value.  Doing both is a tough needle to thread though but I think it’s what they should do if they can.  I don’t think they’re good enough to truly contend but when you’re a handful of points out of the division lead, it’s hard to only subtract from your roster.

Moving Ryan Hartman is an interesting idea.  His value isn’t as high as it was last year when he had a career season but he’s still a pretty good bargain at $1.7MM through next season.  I could see that being worth a first-round pick but in doing so, they’d be taking a key piece off their roster, one that would be pretty difficult to replace, even with more financial flexibility than other teams have.  Unless they’re a straight seller, I don’t expect them to consider that.

Pawtucket: Who is the worst player on an expiring deal on a playoff team?  And then who should they trade him to for what return?

My immediate thought was Milan Lucic but Calgary isn’t in the postseason.  Let’s call them playoff-adjacent so they’re out.  My second thought was Jonathan Quick of the Kings.  $5.8MM for a save percentage of .879 isn’t good value at all.  Clearing that contract would give them plenty of flexibility.  It’d also open up a hole between the pipes and I’m not sure the optics are great for trading a 16-year King who seems like a candidate to retire at the year.  He’s probably out as well as a result.

My next (and last) thought was to look to the minors for the negative-value deals there.  That would be Anton Khudobin, a player that legitimately is an NHLer but his contract was easy to bury.  I don’t think he’s likely to be dealt with an incentive (which is what I assume you were expecting to see) but would rather be a throw-in in a deal like Craig Smith was to match money.

I will say this, however.  If you’re looking for teams that a buyer might need to dump money onto, I’d go with Minnesota, Anaheim, and Chicago.  The Wild could do a move like that to add a depth piece, The Ducks have indicated before that they’re open to such a move, and the Blackhawks have done it enough times already that there’s no reason to think they wouldn’t again.

Read more