PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what the Kings should be doing next, Matt Dumba’s future with Minnesota, plenty of predictions and projections, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

bigalval: The Kings look to build on their surprise season last year, A full season of Doughty and Walker should help along with the kids having a season under their belts. I know they’re against the cap but what about trading Iafallo or Peterson for some cap space and going after Jakob Chychrun? They have plenty of kids to help get it done. Your thoughts on this or any other moves they can make to get better? Good news is cap help is coming with Quick (1 year left) and Kopitar (2 years left) on their deals.

The problem with trading someone like Cal Petersen for cap space is that you then have a 36-year-old Jonathan Quick as your starter on an expiring contract.  That’s quite risky.  Many teams have wingers that they wouldn’t mind moving to free up cap space so there wouldn’t be much of a market for Alex Iafallo to the point of making it worth trading him.  Honestly, both of them are young enough that the Coyotes might be okay with taking them back in a hypothetical return for Chychrun if they had to.

Now, is this the right time to make the move that pushes in more future capital for Chychrun?  I don’t think it is.  Generally speaking, my philosophy is that those moves get made when it’s one that will make you a contender.  I don’t think Los Angeles is much more than a bubble team this season and while Chychrun would undoubtedly make them better, I don’t think he’d make them a contender, especially if they have to move Petersen as a salary offset.

What can they do to be better?  Right now, doing nothing is the right move.  They’re pretty tight to the cap right now and they need to leave themselves enough wiggle room to navigate some short-term injuries that inevitably will creep up during the year.  If they manage to stay relatively healthy, they might be able to bank enough cap space to add some depth at the trade deadline but for now, what they have is what they’re going to go with.

Johnny Z: Do you perceive the Blues being interested in Chychrun now that Scandella is out?

In last weekend’s column, I talked about St. Louis likely wanting to wait until closer to the trade deadline to spend their LTIR money with Marco Scandella out long-term.  In theory, the asking price for Chychrun should be a little cheaper in March than it is now so if he’s still in Arizona by then, I could see them kicking the tires at least.

That said, they already have $67.5MM committed for next season to just 13 players.  With the cap projected to be $83.5MM, that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room, especially when you consider that Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko have to be re-signed or replaced.  Even on a team-friendly $4.6MM for two more years after this one, is there really room for St. Louis to fit Chychrun in?

Arizona is known to be looking for future assets and young players and probably isn’t going to be interested in taking on multiple years of a salary offset.  GM Doug Armstrong will kick the tires, I’m sure, but I think a trade would be hard to make, especially since there won’t be many teams capable of taking on a salary offset to facilitate a Chychrun trade.  I’d be surprised if they wind up with him as a result.

DarkSide830: Are the Flyers cursed?

This question comes on the heels of the playing future of Ryan Ellis coming into significant question and what’s perceived to be a long-term injury to Sean Couturier who officially has been listed as out week-to-week.  For a team that has stated publicly that their intention is to get back into playoff contention, that’s not ideal so you could say that they’re cursed.

On the flip side, if you’re like me and have some skepticism about their ability to get there, this could be viewed as a blessing in disguise.  Without two of their top veterans, perhaps this could push management towards at least some sort of rebuild if things don’t go well early on.  In the long-term picture, that’s probably more beneficial for them in the long run.  It’s a different way of looking at it but this might not be all bad for Philadelphia.

Zakis: What is Matt Dumba’s future? Extension with the Wild – terms? – or a trade?

Last week, Michael Russo of The Athletic reported (subscription link) that there haven’t been any discussions on an extension yet and GM Bill Guerin’s comments intimated that they won’t be starting anytime soon.  That isn’t to say they won’t happen – both sides have expressed a desire to get something worked out – but they’re okay with letting things play out for now.

My prediction is that an extension eventually gets done.  Yes, he has seemingly been on the verge of being traded for a while now (looking back through our archives, it has been about five years of posts where his future was seemingly in question) but every time, they find a way to get it done.  To be honest, this isn’t a high-end defensive group where they could afford to lose someone that logs over 23 minutes a game on the right side of the back end.  Calen Addison is in the system but is he going to be able to step in and fill that void?  Probably not.

The other factor that works in favor of a deal getting done is that Dumba isn’t going to be in a position to command a significant raise on this next contract.  His 50-point season is the outlier with his point-per-game averages in other seasons having in the 30-35-point range.  I have a hard time thinking he can command more than Jared Spurgeon’s $7.575MM AAV; his next deal is probably coming in lower than that.  Let’s say it’s $7.5MM for simplicity.  That’s only $1.5MM more than what he’s making now and the increase to the salary cap covers two-thirds of that.  Yes, the buyout costs are a bit higher next year and Matt Boldy will have to get a bridge deal but I expect they’ll find a way to make it work to keep Dumba around.

W H Twittle: It is most probable that the Habs finish last in the East. Several teams that finished close to the bottom last year like the Sens, Devils and Sabres will increase their point totals as other teams in the East like the Panthers, Bruins, Capitals, and Bolts finish the year with fewer points.

But what about the West? How many teams will finish lower than the Habs? And which teams are most likely to significantly improve their points total? Kings, Oilers, Wild?

I think the only two that I could safely peg as being below Montreal would be Arizona and Chicago.  I could see San Jose having a rough year but the Canadiens would have to exceed my expectations for the Sharks to be below them.

As for who will significantly improve their point total, I’m not sure any of the three you named will.  Edmonton has a bit more goaltending stability so they might go up a bit but a big jump would make them a Presidents’ Trophy contender and I don’t see that happening.  Los Angeles is still a Wild Card team and I could see Minnesota taking a step back, not improving.

I’m going to go off the board a little bit and say Winnipeg.  Sure, the core is still the same but there will be a lot better of a defensive structure under Rick Bowness.  I think that will bring out the best in Connor Hellebuyck and as we’ve seen in the past, when he’s at the top of his game, the Jets can be dangerous.  Anaheim could also have a bit of a jump although perhaps not to the point of contending for a playoff spot.  Their young core will take a step forward which should get them a few more victories at least.

pawtucket: Overachievers and underachiever predictions for the WEST and EAST. Two each. Also, include one example of alliteration using a player name.

I’ve basically covered part of the West already with Winnipeg and Anaheim being teams that could take a step forward so that covers the overachiever portion.

As for underachievers, St. Louis comes to mind and not just because I can make the oddly-specific prediction that Vladimir Tarasenko tickles the twine thirty-two times.  Jordan Binnington hasn’t been great the last couple of years and with Ville Husso gone, there’s no in-house safety net.  If he plays to a .901 SV% again, they’re in some trouble, especially with Thomas Greiss not exactly inspiring much confidence behind him.  I’ll use the Wild as the other underachiever.  Not having Kevin Fiala hurts and I’m not sold on Marc-Andre Fleury being an undisputed starter at this stage of his career.  Again, like St. Louis, they’ve lost their safety net (Cam Talbot).  Filip Gustavsson could be an NHL-caliber goalie but we don’t know for certain.  If he struggles, they’ll find out the hard way.

For overachievers, it all depends on the definition.  If it’s an increase in points compared to last season, it’s Ottawa.  But I think a lot of people are expecting that so if they succeed, are they really overachieving?  Let’s leave them out as a result.  I’ll say Detroit as one team.  They’ve made some incremental upgrades just about everywhere.  That along with some younger players developing in what could be a better offensive environment under Derek Lalonde could make them more dangerous than some might think.  New Jersey would be my other team in this category.  I think Vitek Vanecek really helps.  He’s got great but they now have two goalies capable of being league average which is a good improvement.  They have some youngsters that should take a step forward and Ondrej Palat will help deepen their attack.  The Metropolitan Division is going to be really close and it wouldn’t shock me if the Devils are in the Wild Card mix.

Onto the underachievers.  Florida is an easy pick as realistically, it’d be hard for them to overachieve after the year they’ve had.  They’ll be playing a new system under Paul Maurice and their back end has taken some hits.  They’re still good enough to be a playoff team but this feels like more of a reshaping year than a contending one.  I’ll pick Washington as the other one here.  They have some injuries to contend with early on and their roster is getting old in a hurry.  Their hold on a playoff spot last year was somewhat precarious to begin with and a step back is definitely a possibility.  If that happens, they won’t have a playoff spot to hold onto.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Colorado’s recent additions, some CBA questions, going over some under-the-radar signings, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check in next weekend’s mailbag.

haubrick4: With Scandella being gone most if not all of the season, do the Blues go and trade for, go and sign, or promote from within a defenseman?

In the short term, I don’t think they look outside the organization.  Marco Scandella’s injury (which I think will keep him out for the whole regular season by the time you work in a possible conditioning stint in early April) opens up a full-time roster spot for Scott Perunovich.  In a perfect world, he’s able to log the 18 minutes per game that Scandella did and give them a bit of a lift on the offensive side of things.  If that happens, they don’t need to go get a defenseman.

The other thing that’s worth noting is that Scandella will be on LTIR and when a team is in LTIR, they’re not banking cap space.  For the sake of simplicity, let’s say St. Louis gets the full cap relief for Scandella’s contract at $3.275MM.  It’s worth $3.275MM today, next week, next month, or in March at the trade deadline.  If you’re GM Doug Armstrong, you get one shot at utilizing that cap space.  Is it better to do it now to fix a perceived problem or is it better to wait until midseason or the trade deadline when you have a better understanding of the weaknesses of your roster?  If it were me in charge, I’d be waiting to make that move.

vincent. k. mcmahon: Who is more likely to remain in St. Louis past this upcoming season between O’Reilly and Tarasenko?

I touched on Ryan O’Reilly’s situation in more detail in the last mailbag so I won’t rehash it too much here.  At this point, they can’t afford either him or Vladimir Tarasenko beyond this season.  Armstrong would need to clear some salary out for 2023-24 and beyond for signing one of these two to be viable.

Of those two, if one stays, I think it’s O’Reilly.  I don’t get the sense that Tarasenko’s trade request has really gone away but both sides know one isn’t feasible at this point.  If that is indeed the case and the request hasn’t been rescinded, he probably isn’t going to be overly amenable to re-signing.  At least, not without testing the market first.

O’Reilly, meanwhile, has indicated that he’d like to stick around and discussions on a new deal have already started although there is no perceived urgency to get something done.  I think he’ll have to accept a pay cut from the $7.5MM on his current deal to stay but as long as he’s willing to do, there’s a much better chance that it will be him in a St. Louis uniform in 2023-24 and not Tarasenko.

@iwtfwc: What are your thoughts on Evan Rodrigues joining the Avalanche? Where will he fit in? Do you think he can play 2nd line center over J.T. Compher? And what chances do you give Alex Galchenyuk to make the team?

I’m not sold on Rodrigues being a legitimate top-six player for any extended stretch.  Yes, he had a good few months last season with Pittsburgh but beyond that, he has been more of a depth player.  Waiting out the market for a stronger deal that never came didn’t turn out to be a wise move.

However, I do like the fit in Colorado.  He’ll probably split time in that second center spot with Compher but he’ll see more time on the wing.  He’ll bounce around in the middle six and put up 25-30 points which, for $2MM, isn’t a bad deal.  I thought they’d get someone a little more proven to fill that spot but with this signing, Colorado still has enough cap space that they can bank some in-season money and perhaps go for that more impactful second option closer to the trade deadline.  As far as ‘bridge’ players go, adding Rodrigues is a good move for the Avs.

As for Galchenyuk, it has been a long time since he was a legitimate top-six player for an extended stretch and even longer since he was a legitimate top-six center.  He’s not the type of player that fits well lower in the lineup.  Perhaps with Gabriel Landeskog’s injury, there’s a chance for him to earn a two-way deal at the NHL minimum and break camp with the team.  I’ll put it at 40% and while you might think that seems low, I think most PTO players have a lot lower of a chance than that of making their respective teams.

Gmm8811: When a player signs a PTO, what exactly is the club liable for? Lodging? Travel? Per diem? Medical? Are all PTOs standard across the NHL in regard to the language in the contract?

Technically speaking, the only truly defined PTO in the CBA is for a one-game emergency goaltender.  These are the players that get a one-day contract to dress as the backup but aren’t actually part of the team.  In other words, the ‘EBUG’ such as David Ayres, Thomas Hodges, and Jorge Alves (and many others).  Their contracts are form deals and are in the CBA as Exhibit 17-A.  The highlights are that they get $500 and get to keep their game-worn jersey.

I suspect you’re asking about the long list of NHL skaters that have signed PTO agreements to go to training camp with a team.  There’s no formal contract in place and it can be terminated at any time by the team or the player (if he gets an offer from elsewhere).  Article 15 of the CBA does, however, provide some guidelines for this question.  Teams are required to pay for travel to camp, and provide lodging and per diem money (which can be reduced if the team offers breakfast and/or lunch at the training camp facility).  I can’t say for certain on the medical but considering there is no contract in place, the team probably isn’t under any obligation to cover any costs associated with injuries.

wreckage: Differences between a 1-way and 2-way contract?

The only difference is salary.  A one-way contract means that the player receives the same salary no matter what level they’re playing at.  A two-way contract means that the player receives a specified lesser sum at the minor league level.  Worth noting, more and more two-way deals now have a third dollar amount, a guaranteed salary above the level of the two-way provision.  No matter what, they get that guaranteed figure with the team being responsible for topping up the AHL pay if they’re not brought up to the NHL for enough days during the regular season.  There used to be three-way contracts a few CBAs ago (with fixed amounts for NHL/AHL/ECHL salaries) as well but those aren’t permitted anymore.

I’ll also note that a common mistake is that some interpret one-way and two-way deals with waivers.  This is not the case.  Waiver eligibility is solely defined by age, NHL games played, and the number of years that the player has been on an NHL contract.  Salaries, whether they’re one-way or two-way, do not figure into the mix.

aka.nda: There have been several “big” stories this offseason that garnered a lot of attention. Do you have any hunches about any of the lower-key moves yielding more (or less) than the market value suggested?

One of the lower-key moves that I particularly liked was Washington’s signing of Dylan Strome.  He has a clear and defined role as their second center behind Evgeny Kuznetsov and while Nicklas Backstrom hopes to play this season at some point, I’ll believe it when I see it.  This is a prime opportunity for him to show that he’s a legitimate top-six option for a full season and if he does, the Capitals still have club control on him through arbitration for another year.  That’s a tidy piece of business as far as I’m concerned that will yield a pretty good outcome for the Capitals.

A little lower on the radar was Edmonton’s signing of winger Mattias Janmark.  He’s a versatile player that can play anywhere in the lineup, kill penalties, and is a safe bet to land somewhere between 20 and 30 points.  On a team that is going to have some cap challenges when it comes to being able to afford some of their better prospects on recall, Janmark is going to become a very valuable role player for them.  A shrewd addition a few days into free agency.

On the flip side, Columbus isn’t going to get a good return on the four-year, $16MM deal that they gave to Erik Gudbranson.  He’s a capable fifth defender but giving him top-four money for that long was puzzling.  Justin Schultz’s contract with Seattle (two years, $3MM AAV) also flew under the radar as one of many first-day signings in free agency but I don’t think it will work out as intended.  He struggled last season and is more of a depth player than an impact one but they’re paying him to be a secondary producer and he has scored just 16 goals over the last five seasons combined.

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Training camps open this week all around the league and preseason hockey is right around the corner. Most of the restricted free agents are signed, big extensions have been handed out, and rosters are nearly complete for most teams. Hope is all over the league as pretenders try to become contenders, rebuilding clubs see rookie breakouts, and newcomers try to make an impact in unfamiliar surroundings.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.

Last time, the mailbag was broken into two parts. The first looked at the center market over the next two years, and future dealings for Steve Yzerman, and predicted some of the RFA news that would follow. The second examined the tanking rosters, Ottawa’s interesting offseason, and how St. Louis can afford to re-sign Ryan O’Reilly.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ottawa’s back end, what’s next for the captain of the Blues, Philadelphia’s future, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

W H Twittle: The 2023 draft promises top-end talent with the first five picks: Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Dvorsky, and Yager not to mention Benson, Ritchie, and Danielsson. With their current rosters and notwithstanding the lottery which teams will finish in the bottom five this coming season? Chicago, Arizona, San Jose, Montreal, and Philadelphia?

I think it’s safe to put Chicago and Arizona in there.  But those are the only two truly obvious ones.

Montreal finished dead last and their back end is now worse.  That’s typically a recipe for a lot more losing but a full year under Martin St. Louis and a better forward group than they finished up with could push them out of the bottom five.  For this exercise, I’d still put them there but it’s not as obvious a choice as it might seem.

I get the temptation to put Philadelphia there but I think John Tortorella will give them a bit of a boost.  Not enough to get into the playoffs, mind you, but they’ll be better than this level.  Instead of a Metropolitan team, I’d put another Atlantic squad in and say Buffalo.  Yes, their young core did well down the stretch but their goaltending is going to cost them a lot of games.  Between that and it being a tougher division with Detroit and Ottawa both improving and I could see the Sabres sliding back into the bottom five.

As for a team from the Pacific, I’d lean towards the Sharks finishing at the basement but I’d also have Seattle in that mix.  The Kraken improved this summer but they still are going to struggle mightily when it comes to scoring which will offset some of the eventual improvement between the pipes.  Let’s go with San Jose here at this point but it’s far from a given.

Of course, we’re still six weeks away from rosters being finalized so things could definitely change between now and then.

jdgoat: Does Ottawa still make a move for a top-four defenseman or are they going to have to hope a young player is able to step up and take that spot?

We know they want to do that but there’s basically only one available on the trade market in Jakob Chychrun and the asking price is too steep for their liking.  Between Jake Sanderson, Lassi Thomson, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, at least one of them should be ready at camp and by midseason, another one might be ready so the internal option makes the most sense.

There are two ways to upgrade the top four.  The most common one is to add a top-four player but I also believe that upgrading the third pairing upgrades the top four.  If the floor of the third pairing improves and all of a sudden can take on a bigger role, that’s less pressure for the top guys and over time, it’s a little less wear and tear on a cumulative level and a little less on an in-game basis as well.  That’s a worthwhile improvement as well and is typically easier to do than to add a proven top-four option.

I’ve mentioned this before when discussing Detroit but it applies to Ottawa as well.  Teams rarely go from missing the playoffs to contenders right away and there’s some value in seeing what your youngsters are going to do in the heat of a playoff race and perhaps a playoff round.  From there, then the GM can go and add that final piece based on what they saw actually happened with their youngsters compared to what they think will happen if they made that move now.  My sense is that they’d be better off going with what they have on the back end to start the year and if they hold their own, let them go through the playoff run and then reassess the state of the defense corps from there.  But if the asking price for Chychrun drops a bit, I probably wouldn’t fault Dorion for going to get him if a trade wound up materializing.

Gmm8811: Looking into the crystal ball and wondering about your thoughts on Ryan O’Reilly? Contract is coming up and we all know Doug Armstrong is not afraid to let a captain walk if he perceives the value to be too high. I’m fairly sure there’s no prospects in the pipeline that has all the intangibles to bring to the table that ROR has. Then there’s the Tarasenko thing.

In a perfect world, there’s a pathway to bringing O’Reilly back.  That perfect world includes him taking a notable cut in pay which isn’t something I’m sure he’s willing to do, at least to the extent that would likely be needed.

The good news, however, is that even if he was to leave, St. Louis would still be in pretty good shape down the middle.  Robert Thomas has an eight-year extension in place already and Brayden Schenn has six years left on his current deal.  That could very well be their one-two punch for a while and would go a long way towards easing some of the concerns about not having a key middleman in the pipeline that’s close to being ready for an impact role.

If O’Reilly wanted to take a couple million less on his current deal and sign for around $5.5MM on a medium-term contract, I think Armstrong would find a way to make that work.  That’s a premium for a third center but those three comprise one of the stronger center groups in the league so why wouldn’t they want to keep that together?

You mention Vladimir Tarasenko whose contract is up and with his trade request still believed to be intact, it’s hard to envision an extension.  The problem is that they’ve already spent most of his expiring deal on Thomas and Jordan Kyrou is a year away from a big contract of his own.  Even if Tarasenko wanted to stay on a market-value deal, that would be tricky to accomplish.

If I had to guess, I think O’Reilly would leave a little money on the table to stay but there will be a sizable market for his services if he wants to go to free agency.  I don’t think the Blues will be able to afford him at market value so it will be tough for them to keep him around unless Armstrong moves out a contract of note first.  I do expect they’ll push hard to find a way to make it work though as he’d be a tough player to lose.

The Duke: All-seeing, -knowing, and -telling Crystal Ball: Who are your top-four candidates to become can’t-miss 30-goal scorers; top-three scoring defensemen + top-three standout goalies from the recent draft? Bonus Q: is UPL or Devon Levi the Sabres’ goalie of the future?

Forwards: The big three from the top of the draft projections – Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Logan Cooley are the obvious ones to choose from.  If we’re talking about can’t-miss players before they even play an NHL game, the logical choices are the top picks.  Joakim Kemell (17th to Buffalo) might not be a can’t-miss guy but he should have some 30-goal seasons under his belt and is an early candidate to outperform his draft position.

Defensemen: Simon Nemec is the obvious choice so let’s go with him first.  I think David Jiricek will be the next best defender in terms of value but he might not be a huge point producer.  Denton Mateychuk is someone that should be an offensive threat at the next level so let’s put him here and Pavel Mintyukov’s aggression will get him into trouble defensively at times but it’ll help him put up points in the NHL so he should be one of the top-scoring blueliners from this class.

Goalies: The crystal ball spat out a different answer for this one – NA as in not applicable (or no answer).  Honestly, I’m not sure there’s one standout goalie from this draft class let alone three.  Sure, the odd one will probably see some time as a backup but if none of them became NHL starters, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.  This was not a good class for puck stoppers.

Bonus: I’ve always been a Levi fan.  Yes, he’s small but he stops a lot of pucks and wins a lot of games and no matter your size, that combination is enticing. I think he can be a starter in the NHL and I’m not sure Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is a 1A starter down the road.  I’d lean Levi here but a tandem with a 45/37 split or something like that is what I think their long-term preference would be.

Nha Trang: Heh, why not go whole hog? Who wins the Cup this season, and who wins the scoring race?

I’ll even recycle a question from last year, which Brian killed, if you run short of questions: what guy comes out of nowhere to dish out an unexpected career year?

First, thanks for the reminder that sometimes a prediction (Tage Thompson) actually turns out to be right.  (For anyone looking for a reminder of the last one that went wrong, just click the link to last weekend’s column at the top of this article as Lou Lamoriello made my guess about the Islanders look bad in a hurry.)

For the scoring race, Connor McDavid has won it four times in the last six seasons.  I see no reason for him not to make it five in seven.  I don’t want to go with two obvious picks in a row so I’ll go a different road for a Cup winner – how about Carolina?  I think they’re a bit weaker now than a year ago but they have a lot of young players with room for improvement to help offset that.  They’ll get a top scorer back late in the year to really deepen their attack and their back end is still quite strong.  Teams can win without elite goaltending so the Hurricanes could pull it off and it will help that the Metropolitan is probably the easiest division to come out of; while there are a lot of good teams, there aren’t any great ones.

Thompson wasn’t in the top 300 in scoring the year before I picked him to let’s use that as a cut-off point to pick from; anyone above that isn’t really coming out of nowhere anyway.  Out of who’s left, Blackhawks winger Taylor Raddysh jumps out (and happens to be the same age as Thompson).  He was more or less an afterthought in the Brandon Hagel trade with the two first-rounders getting the attention but he got a bigger role down the stretch and notched 10 points in 21 games after the swap.  There’s a good chance he’s in their top six in 2022-23 and with him being one of their younger forwards, he’ll get some leeway if things don’t do well early on.  Is he going to have a year like Thompson did last season?  Probably not but Raddysh is someone that’s under the radar that could wind up as one of their top scorers.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include fixing Boston’s cap situation, the future center market, when the Islanders might announce a move this summer, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

case7187: What do you think the Bruins will do to get cap space?

Right now, probably nothing of consequence.  They have time to work with as they can get through the first two months of the season simply using LTIR.  A lot can change from a roster perspective in that time; does someone else get injured that could extend that LTIR safety net?

The reality is that moving out a contract is quite difficult right now and while it wouldn’t cost a first-round pick to offload the final year of Craig Smith’s deal or Nick Foligno’s, parting with future assets at a time when they might not be far from a rebuild of some degree is going to sting.  They might be able to take a smaller contract back and save a bit of money that way but there’s a better approach than that and it’s the one that I think Boston (and a whole lot of teams) are going to use.

Rather than part with an asset to move Smith and take a smaller contract back, why not just waive Smith?  Or Foligno?  Or, when healthy, Mike Reilly, who’s another potential casualty?  If you lose one of them for nothing, it’s still a better outcome than trading a future asset away to accomplish the same thing.  If they clear, they’d free up $1.125MM in cap space each time.  Do that two or three times and voila, problem solved.  If they get to the playoffs, those players return to the roster when there’s no salary cap so there’s no need to go for a rental depth piece or two at the deadline.

To be clear, I’m not singling those players out as not being worthy of being claimed.  Instead, I think there are going to be plenty of players in that price range ($3MM or so) that are dumped on waivers because teams know there’s little chance they’ll be claimed.  Think back to a couple of years ago when we saw some veterans waived to bounce back and forth from the taxi squads in an effort to bank any sort of cap room.  I expect that will be much more prevalent this coming season.

If there’s a reasonable opportunity to move a player out that doesn’t cost an asset of some significance, that’s obviously Plan A.  But if it doesn’t happen, I think they play things out, see how far they can get with LTIR, and then waive their way into cap compliance with two or three players being waived, clearing, and getting sent down to Providence.

rpoabr: Do the Kings get both Anderson and Durzi signed or do they make a trade to alleviate the logjam?

I think there’s enough money for both to sign without a trade needing to be made.  Let’s break down the current projection from CapFriendly that has the Kings only have around $1.5MM to spend on both players.

There are 15 forwards on that roster.  At most, they’re carrying 14 and in all likelihood, probably 13.  At a minimum, that frees up $750K with the likelier outcome being closer to $1.6MM in extra space.  Now they’re at $3MM or so to spend which is a lot better.

Defensively, there are seven signed players on there once you factor in the ones showing as injured.  Again, at least one has to go and the easiest solution is probably Jordan Spence even though it’s not the fairest solution.  It could be Jacob Moverare but Spence is waiver-exempt and Moverare isn’t.  Those things matter at the beginning of the season.  At a minimum, that’s another $762.5K off the roster, bringing the actual cap space closer to $3.8MM.

That should be more than enough to get both players signed on short-term bridge deals.  It’s doubtful either one gets more than two years so it’s not a long-term fix but it’s enough to get contracts done without compromising any of their depth.  Players in these situations don’t have any leverage outside of holding out and hoping for a better offer so even with that cap space in mind, it might take a few more weeks at least for one or both of them to sign.

baji kimran: Do you seen any real good (maybe even elite) centers coming available in the next year or two?

On the trade front, the first one that comes to mind is Winnipeg’s Pierre-Luc Dubois.  It sure seems like he has no intention of signing with the Jets on a long-term basis which will either have him traded in the next year or so to a team where he will sign or take another one-year deal next summer to hit the open market in 2024.  He’s not elite but as a fairly young player that can play on the second line, I’d say that would qualify.

Looking ahead to next summer’s free agent class, it’s actually pretty good as things stand.  Nathan MacKinnon would command a king’s ransom if he was to somehow make it there and definitely is in the elite category.  Dylan Larkin and Bo Horvat are also up at that time and are very good fits for plenty of teams.  Ryan O’Reilly is a capable veteran and Jonathan Toews will be up as well.  In 2024, the list currently consists of Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, Mark Scheifele, and Anze Kopitar, among others.  That’s a pretty good group as well.

Obviously, not all of those players are going to actually become available.  Most probably won’t.  But with a flat salary cap, some of them are probably going to make it there or at least become available in a sign-and-trade proposition.  For teams hoping to add an impact middleman over the next couple of years, there’s a bit of cause for optimism as a result.

Zakis: What free agent forward will the Wild sign? Or will they try and trade from the D depth to acquire a more impactful F?

I’m going to tackle these out of order.  I don’t see Minnesota moving their defensive depth to acquire a more impactful forward simply because there isn’t one that they’d be willing to move that would bring in a forward of significance.  I think they’d move Dmitry Kulikov but there aren’t teams lining up to trade a good forward for him.  Jon Merrill’s value has been limited in the past as well so he wouldn’t bring back a big return either.

When I first saw this question, Phil Kessel was the player that came to mind in free agency.  He’s someone that would probably play on the third line at five-on-five but he’d help the power play and in a more offensive environment, he’d probably give them a good return on a $2MM or so investment, which would ensure that they have ample cap space for midseason activity as well.  I think Paul Stastny would be a good fit as well with their center depth not being the strongest and Sonny Milano in that system would be intriguing from an upside standpoint.  If they sign a free agent, I could see it being one of those three.

There’s another option in between these and that’s taking on a contract with another asset for future considerations.  There are several teams that need to make a cost-cutting move and several more that might not have to but want to.  That might be a more desirable approach for them to take to add a middle-six forward plus a draft pick or prospect.  GM Bill Guerin would have plenty of options to ponder if he was open to going that route and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the path he ultimately takes.

Johnny Z: When does Stevie pull the trigger on that blockbuster trade? He has two big guns in Larkin and Bert that have not been extended as of yet, an under-performing Zadina, and some depth D to bargain with.

I’ve had similar questions in recent mailbags so I won’t go through the whole answer again but I keep coming back to the fact that teams rarely go from also-rans to contenders right away.  How will their core perform under the pressure of important games night after night in the playoff hunt and the playoffs themselves?  The problem with answering that is another question in itself; when was the last time Detroit’s core played in a bunch of meaningful games?  It has been so long that GM Steve Yzerman simply doesn’t know how that’s going to go.

When you bring up that blockbuster trade, I think of that move being the one that will vault them into contention.  They know what that missing piece is and they go and get it.  But I’d argue that they don’t know what that missing piece is yet.  They can hope that everyone will perform to expectations but that’s all it is, hope.  They need to see this group go through some legitimate pressure points which will tell them when the time is right to make that move.  It’s not this coming season and I’m not convinced it’s the year after either as what happens with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi (both 2023 UFAs) could impact their contention timeline.

Teams should be making that blockbuster move to bring in that missing piece of the puzzle.  Detroit isn’t particularly close to that point and making it too early could present more problems down the road.

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As most of the hockey world takes a vacation, the World Juniors in Edmonton are providing a nice change of pace for fans looking to get a glimpse of their future stars. Anaheim Ducks forward Mason McTavish leads the tournament with six goals and ten points, sometimes looking like he is six or seven years older than the rest of his competition, while Luke Hughes continues to dominate as the tournament’s best defenseman. With the tournament coming to a close in just a few days, we’ll soon have to turn our attention back to the coming season.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.

Last time, the mailbag was broken into two parts. The first examined the risky situation in Toronto’s crease, Pierre-Luc Dubois’ future in Winnipeg, and P.K. Subban’s continued free agency. The second focused on some offer sheet candidates, the front office in Philadelphia, and some often-discussed trade targets.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include offer sheet candidates in Vegas, Buffalo’s offseason, Chuck Fletcher’s future in Philadelphia, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

aka.nda: Any thoughts you’d like to share on the Golden Knights? As a Kraken fan, earlier, I was hoping they’d offer sheet Nicolas Roy, which I’m told is uncommon. Seems like he could be had for a deal. Think any teams are contemplating offer sheeting anyone out there, not just VGK’s?

While there have been a couple in recent years, offer sheets are still indeed quite rare.  In a marketplace where many teams are looking to clear money, it’s hard to think that there are teams that will be willing to place an above-market offer to try to land a restricted free agent.  It doesn’t help that a lot of the teams that have enough cap space (plus their own draft picks) to attempt to go this route are teams that aren’t particularly interested in trying to compete right now and thus are likely disinclined to do an offer sheet that will cost them draft picks.

I think you’re correct in identifying Vegas as a team that’s particularly vulnerable to an offer sheet.  Roy, in particular, is a viable candidate.  His camp clearly knows that as by not filing for salary arbitration earlier this month, he’s still eligible to receive one.  A one-year offer sheet in the second-round pick tier ($4.2MM) might be enough to get him to sign as it would represent a substantial raise from the minimum salary he received the last two years.  Defenseman Nicolas Hague is another player who would be an intriguing offer sheet candidate.

I’m intrigued to see what Vegas is going to do.  They’ll clearly be in LTIR after acquiring the rest of Shea Weber’s contract and Nolan Patrick could wind up there for the season as well with the uncertainty surrounding his future.  Notwithstanding the various mechanics involved with the timing of those placements that can affect the actual cap space, that’d give them around $7.5MM to work with, to use a simple number.  Is that enough for Roy, Hague, Keegan Kolesar, and at least one other forward making the minimum?

If that’s the plan, they’re going to hold out and try to get Hague to take a really cheap one-year deal (he didn’t have arbitration eligibility) and then there might be enough left to commit a medium-term contract to Roy that buys out a UFA year or two.  But even with that, they’ll be ‘creative’ with their LTIR usage all season long.  If nothing else, they’re clearly used to navigating that situation.

sabres3277: Do you think the Sabres did enough in free agency or should they be interested in Nino Niederreiter to add some grit and physicality to the forward position?? Or maybe get involved in making a trade for some more forward help while not bankrupting the future??

Let’s look at Buffalo’s free agent additions since the market opened up.  Eric Comrie came over to be a platoon partner with Craig Anderson in goal and they added Ilya Lyubushkin to add some grit and physicality on the back end.  (Niederreiter signed in Nashville not long after this question was posed.)  That’s a pretty small list of additions.

Allow me to pose a question back for a moment – what is Buffalo’s goal this season?  Their actions (or lack thereof) tell me that it’s not time to flip the switch to try to win.  What they did was shield their youngsters – Comrie’s addition allows Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to go back to AHL Rochester and Lyubushkin gives a bit of protection to a back end whose next-oldest player is Jacob Bryson who’s only 24.

In that spirit, yes, they did enough in free agency.  What little they did was for their youngsters and they’re going to try to continue to develop their young core.  That’s basically all they really needed to do so I think GM Kevyn Adams did enough by not doing much of anything.

That said, I have no issues with them adding a forward in the right scenario.  So many teams are looking to clear up cap space and teams with that space can leverage future assets for taking that deal on.  If there’s an expiring contract that a team needs to shed and that team is willing to part with a draft pick and/or prospect to make that happen, Buffalo would be wise to jump on that.  There will be injuries and some youngsters will struggle so another forward certainly wouldn’t hurt and if that forward can be flipped with retention at the deadline for more future assets, even better.

That’s the type of trade to make for them right now, not one that requires moving future assets away.  There will come a time for that type of move (I’m thinking a couple of seasons from now for them to start that transition) but it’s not yet.

@Joebad34TD: What is the current rumor on Patrick Kane’s trade destination, and is Buffalo a potential team of interest for both parties?

The latest on Kane is that there’s a report that Chicago is listening to offers and a report that they’re not listening to offers.  Admittedly, that’s not a lot to run with here but the uncertainty is an accurate depiction of where things stand.  At this point, his camp hasn’t approached the team about a trade and the Blackhawks have already said they won’t go to him to try to move him.

At this point, I think just about everyone thinks that will change at some point.  Chicago appears to have no interest in trying to compete next season (or for a few years) and that’s unlikely to appeal to Kane at this stage of his career.  In all likelihood, his thoughts are probably similar to that of Jonathan Toews’ opinions which were voiced earlier this week.

As we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s hard to move money and Kane has a cap hit of $10.5MM.  That’s a lot of money.  At the trade deadline in February, three-quarters (give or take) will be paid which is a lot easier for contenders to absorb, particularly if the Blackhawks are willing to retain on the contract to facilitate a trade.  Whoever is a playoff contender and has some needed cap flexibility will be the ones to watch for at that time.

Buffalo clearly isn’t a playoff contender so they have no reason to trade for Kane.  Yes, he’s from there and they’ll probably kick tires on him in free agency but a team that’s expected to not be all that close to the postseason chase shouldn’t be gearing up to try to acquire what likely will be the top rental player available at the deadline.  Unless there was a guarantee that acquiring him early would result in an extension, don’t expect to see them linked to Kane next season.

baji kimran: If Columbus offered Arizona Jake Bean, Alexandre Texier, Gustav Nyquist, and two #1 draft picks for Jakob Chychrun, would that be enough to get a deal done? The point is the Jackets are trying to acquire Chychrun and free up cap space to sign Laine If not, what do you think would be acceptable to the Coyotes? Also, how long will Johnny Gaudreau have to appear on podcasts and apologize for signing with the Blue Jackets?

Clearly, the scenario has now changed since the question was posted with Patrik Laine re-signing and Oliver Bjorkstrand being the cap casualty but that’s an offer that I think Arizona would give serious consideration to.  Bean is a little too far removed from being a first-rounder to automatically be one of the three first-round elements they’ve been believed to be seeking but two firsts is a strong start while Bean and Texier are youngsters that could be around for a while and should more than offset taking on the rest of Nyquist’s deal.  Such a move probably isn’t happening now but there’s a framework for a deal that might be enough to meet Arizona’s high asking price.

As for Gaudreau, I hope the public appearance tour has come to an end.  No matter how much he tries to smooth things over, it’s not going to make any sort of difference for most Calgary fans.  He informed them less than 24 hours before the start of free agency that he wouldn’t re-sign, preventing the Flames from getting anything in return for him.  Even if he had signed closer to home in New Jersey, there would have been resentment with that decision.  Now, compare what happened to what Matthew Tkachuk did (which happened after this question was posed), that’s going to paint Gaudreau in an even more negative light.

He decided to leave Calgary which was his right having qualified for unrestricted free agency.  But fans of the Flames aren’t going to simply shrug their shoulders and go ‘Oh well, it was fun while it lasted’.  No, they’re going to be upset, understandably so, no matter what Gaudreau says publicly.  The sooner he realizes that, the better.

bigalval: How would you grade the Kings’ offseason? I think they have done a great job and Kopitar’s contract has two years left and Quick has one year left so it will free up some more money thoughts?

Johnny Z: To add to this: what LD will they pursue?

I’d have their summer in the B/B- range.  I don’t mind the Kevin Fiala trade but I don’t like the contract.  He has one season with more than 25 goals and 55 points under his belt.  They’re paying him like he’ll be a 75-point player for the duration of that deal.  I don’t think he will produce at that level consistently in a lesser offensive environment.

Adrian Kempe’s contract was going to be painful thanks to his platform season but $5.5MM for a player who, until 2021-22, produced at the level of a third-liner, is risky, to put it lightly.  Is he a 35-goal player moving forward?  Probably not.  Is he a 25-goal forward?  Even that I’d be hesitant to agree on.

These contracts basically took them out of the market of trying to add a left defenseman.  They barely could afford to bring Alex Edler back and will have to pursue one-year deals with Michael Anderson and Sean Durzi to stay cap-compliant.  Sure, they’re better with the addition of Fiala but they still have a back end that thins out fairly quickly.

Yes, there is some cap flexibility on the horizon with their expiring contracts but a good chunk of that will be eaten up as their younger core comes off their entry-level deals.  They’re not going to be in cap trouble but for as close as they’re going to get this year, I thought they’d have tried to shore up more than just finding an improvement on Dustin Brown.  It’s not a bad offseason and they’ll be in the playoff race hence the grade in the B range but I don’t think they got enough accomplished for the cap space they had two months ago.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: Please make Fletcher’s moves (or rather lack thereof) make sense…Give a 50+ year fan some glimmer of hope?

Feels like the whole next season is just built on Ifs…if this guy comes back, if Torts can turn things around…Please tell me there is more of a plan than this?

EMoney123: When do the Flyers cut Chuck Fletcher loose considering salary cap, poor roster construction, and the poor PR of not signing Gaudreau?

The lack of moves actually makes some sense to me.  From his standpoint, his team on paper should have been better last season.  Frankly, I don’t disagree with that; they should have been better than what they were.  Where we disagree is on whether this roster is good enough to contend when everyone is healthy.  I’m not as confident in that as Fletcher seems to be.

I even understand the lack of movement.  We’ve seen the cost of moving money this summer.  It’s not pretty.  Would it have been justifiable to part with a high pick or top prospect (or a combination of picks and prospects) to clear James van Riemsdyk off the books?  As a non-playoff team, probably not.  One could quibble about adding Anthony DeAngelo on that contract but with Ryan Ellis’ availability appearing to be in question again, I can’t fault the logic of looking for insurance although if everyone is healthy, that’s a very pricey back end.  That’d be a good problem for them to have at this point.

There are a lot of ifs with this team and if they hit on most of them, they can be in the Wild Card mix.  They didn’t hire John Tortorella for his long-term coaching acumen; he’s someone that has a shorter-term shelf life with an expectation of short-term success.  The boost from him, the return to health of some key players, and a bounce-back year from Carter Hart and voila, that’s the plan to return to being in the playoff battle.

As for Fletcher’s future, I’m always hesitant to publicly speculate on people losing their jobs.  That said, I think he is running out of moves to make if things don’t go as planned again.  He has played the coaching change card and with how tough it is to move contracts this summer, the roster basically is what it is and most of it (with van Riemsdyk being a notable exception) are players that he has brought in or signed to their current deals.  This is his team, for better or for worse.  If this doesn’t work, ownership will have to consider if Fletcher is the right one to make the necessary connections and with the way last season went, there may not be much of a leash left for him.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Toronto’s goaltending situation, discussion on whether or not Detroit should have another move in them this summer, early offseason winners, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: If the Murray/Samsonov experiment fails, do you see the Leafs trading for a goalie who is capable to handle the load?

I don’t see that happening.  To this point, GM Kyle Dubas has shown an inability or an unwillingness to commit to any long-term goaltending solution.  There are no real trade options that meet all of the following criteria – a clear and proven upgrade on both netminders, affordable on the cap, being on a team that’s likely to sell at the trade deadline, and on a short-term contract (since they want to keep flexibility for when the contracts for their core forwards expire).  Unless one of those somehow becomes available, Toronto won’t really have an opportunity to upgrade during the season.

I’m not as down on Toronto’s goaltending moves as some are.  Knowing the need for affordability and flexibility, their options were going to be limited.  While there’s certainly a risk of this blowing up, there is definitely an upside play as well.  If one of Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov shows that he can live up to the promise of just a couple of years ago, the Maple Leafs will have a good goalie on their hands.  Good isn’t great but considering the limited amount they’re able to commit to the position, good will have to be good enough.

gowings2008: Yzerman obviously added some nice pieces to the Red Wings in the past couple of weeks, but they still lack that true star up front. I think Raymond could develop into that, but is there a chance they maybe trade for that type of player? Maybe a Barzal or Tkachuk, for example, as they both fit the core age group.

Johnny Z: I still see at least one more move this summer for Stevie Y. Would it be taking on a bad contract with a huge sweetener, or signing one of the 2 top FA’s left and then clearing out someone in that roster spot, or bidding for a Matthew Tkachuk or a Chychrun…What say, you oh Swami?

What’s the old saying, you have to learn to crawl before you can walk and walk before you can run?  That’s what comes to mind when I think of Detroit.  Their offseason signings thus far look like GM Steve Yzerman saying the time has come to try to get back to a playoff spot and get their young core some postseason experience.  Their rebuild has been a crawl (a long crawl, at that) and getting to the playoffs is the learning to walk part.  It’s hard to skip that stage and go right to running (becoming a year-in, year-out contender).

Could they trade for that player?  Absolutely.  Will that trade come this summer?  I’d be surprised if it did.  If I’m Yzerman, I want to see how their young core handles their first taste of a playoff push and perhaps a series or two to help determine what type of star player they need.  It’s hard to make that determination now.

If they want to get in on the bidding for the top free agents, that’s another thing.  (I still could see John Klingberg fitting there, even with Moritz Seider and Filip Hronek.)  If you can get a core piece for free without having to trade for it, that’s great.  But I don’t think the time is right for them to make the type of franchise-altering splash on the trade front.  And if they want to take on a pricey expiring contract with a sweetener, that wouldn’t be the worst outcome either as long as they keep enough cap space to build enough in-season room to add at the trade deadline.

W H Twittle: What realistic options do the Jets have with Pierre-Luc Dubois? Should they offer 8M$×7 or something similar to see whether it really is “Habs or nothing” for Dubois? Or should they focus on trading him? And which teams could be interested in Dubois for possibly only two years?

I’ve been intrigued with the Dubois situation and the fact he accepted his qualifying offer at $6MM is curious.  If that was the plan all along, he could have just filed for arbitration and likely got more money.  Was not filing a leverage play that went wrong?  If Dubois hopes this route helps facilitate a trade to Montreal, I’m not sure it does.  All things equal, the Canadiens probably would have preferred a long-term deal that had two RFA years in it to knock a few hundred thousand off the AAV of a max-term agreement instead of one which is the best they (or any other team) can do now.

I think it also needs to be noted that there’s an important word missing from the various leaks saying Dubois wants to play in Montreal.  The word that’s missing is ‘only’.  At no point has it been definitively been said that he only wants to play in Montreal.  Is that his preference?  It sure seems like it.  But it’s not a Montreal or bust scenario.  At least, that’s not what his camp is indicating.

What does appear to be clear is that his long-term future isn’t with the Jets.  That means the options are to trade him now, trade him midseason, or trade him next summer.  Dubois accepting the qualifying offer makes the second option much more plausible.  If they try to move him at the deadline, there’s a lot less salary remaining for a team to take on plus the potential for retention is higher (unless Winnipeg is in the thick of the playoff hunt in which case trading him next summer becomes the likely scenario).  A trade deadline move would have several contenders interested and ready to pay a sizable return.  Even if a long-term agreement isn’t guaranteed, two playoff runs and a chance to try to extend him is still worth quite a bit.  They’re still in good shape to get a good return.

The trade deadline scenario makes it hard to peg teams as we don’t know who all will be in the mix yet and, more importantly, who will have cap space to do it.  But if you want a wild card team for a trade this summer?  I’d say Colorado.  If Nazem Kadri doesn’t re-sign, could the Avs flip someone like Samuel Girard (a young top-four blueliner signed for five more years) and J.T. Compher to get a two-year improvement down the middle and potentially even an insurance policy if they can’t get Nathan MacKinnon signed for some reason?  (That’s not a precise trade proposal, by the way, just a general thought.)  I could see that being a Plan B for them or any other team that wants but doesn’t get Kadri.

JustPete: The new Ducks GM recently said that he’s not done and that they are looking to add a forward and a defenseman. The Ducks are also below the minimum cap level. It sounds to me that he is looking to pick off some solid players from teams that are over the cap and must shed some contracts. If true, who are the most logical teams/players in your view? Thanks.

Their lack of activity this summer tells me they’re not looking to win now.  That makes them a prime candidate for this type of move although they’d be looking for future assets, not necessarily solid players.  In other words, they’ll take on an overpriced expiring or short-term contract if they’re properly incentivized; they don’t have to be looking for impact players at this point.  That gives them a lot of options right now.

Off the top of my head, Patric Hornqvist (Florida), Tanner Pearson and Jason Dickinson (Vancouver), Jason Zucker (Pittsburgh), Warren Foegele (Edmonton), Scandella (St. Louis), and Jonathan Drouin (Montreal) stand out as options as players that are on short-term deals (one or two years each) and could provide some utility to them while they’d still likely be able to pick up a future asset or two.  A player or two off that shortlist could be possibilities.

There’s also the ability to facilitate a Kadri or Klingberg signing or a trade if a team needs to free up money.  Those are harder to peg down in terms of which contract(s) could go but there should be an opportunity to get involved on that front as well.

big boi: Do you see the Habs trying to move Price and Gallagher’s contracts in the near future? If so, how?

Carey Price is coming off a season that saw him play in five games, several of which he didn’t play all that well in.  He then admitted that if his knee doesn’t get any better, he doesn’t see how he could play again.  That’s not the profile of a goaltender that has any trade value before factoring in that he’s the highest-paid goalie in NHL history and has four years left on his contract.  I simply don’t see a team wanting to offer anything for him, even those who are trying to get creative with LTIR space.  And while the Canadiens likely need to trim money, they’re not going to part with multiple high picks and prospects to move Price at a time when they’re firmly in a rebuild.  Nothing happens trade-wise on his front for a while, if it ever happens at all.

As for Brendan Gallagher, what’s the market for a player coming off a seven-goal season?  Not very good.  Then you add in the five years left on his contract at $6.5MM per.  That changes his market value from not very good to non-existent.  Similar to Price, it’s a contract that would require retention and/or future assets to move.  They shouldn’t be doing that with where they are in the rebuilding process.

There are easier contracts to move.  They have several veterans on expiring contracts that could be flipped for someone making a little less to free up cap flexibility or they could look to move someone like Drouin, Joel Armia, or Mike Hoffman, either taking a cheaper player back or with a smaller incentive than it’d take to get out of Price and Gallagher’s contracts.  Those are much more plausible moves for Montreal to make.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Boston’s offseason, discussing which route is the best to take for Nashville, candidates for ‘hockey’ trades, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in either last weekend’s mailbag or Saturday’s Detroit-specific column.

Zakis: Who will be the Wild’s primary goalie for the ’22-’23 season?

I’m going to say Cam Talbot.  While their Plan A is to re-sign Marc-Andre Fleury, with everything else they have to navigate this summer, I’m leery that they’ll be able to do so unless Fleury takes below his market value to stay there.  I expect Minnesota will have to be a bit more frugal while looking for their second netminder.  While they’re probably not going to wind up with a low-end, cheap second-stringer, I have a hard time thinking that second goalie will play more than Talbot, barring injury.

Assuming that happens, Talbot should check in around 50-55 starts, a mark he’d have reached this season had it not been for Fleury’s acquisition back at the trade deadline.  Getting that many starts will be important for him as well since the 34-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2023 offseason and playing a number one workload would certainly help his cause next summer on the open market.

Nha Trang: I’d ask “What the hell were the Bruins thinking?” except that everyone in hockey knows the answer.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on Sweeney being canned and ending up in Vegas?

BOSsports21: Piggybacking off a couple B’s questions already – the Bruins need a teardown and rebuild. It’s not something B’s fans want to hear, but they have only a couple of good prospects and no cap room. They weren’t really a Cup contender this past year and now they want to bring in a younger coach. If you’re the GM, do you sell off as much as you can to obtain assets? I feel Pastrnak and Marchand will not be the same without Bergeron if he retires. Even if he comes back, it’ll probably only be for a year. Might as well get good value for Pastrnak and Marchand to re-stock the bare cupboard. Thoughts?

Let’s put some Boston questions together.  GM Don Sweeney’s decision to part ways with Bruce Cassidy certainly raised some eyebrows and the fact that several teams immediately pursued him indicates that his perception around the league is much more positive than it was in Boston’s front office.  Obviously, they felt the playoff underperformance was cause for concern and there has been plenty of speculation about other factors but that’s simply speculation.

There’s a good chance that whoever Sweeney hires will be his last hire as Boston’s head coach.  He’s one of the longer-tenured general managers in the league but most are only able to make a couple of coaching changes before they’re heading out the door.  As for joining Vegas when that happens, never say never, even with what I suspect was a sarcastic question.  Vegas isn’t exactly known for patience in the early going and if they struggle over the next year or two, there could be front office changes following soon after.

Boston has operated as a team that isn’t likely to rebuild, especially with the moves they’ve made in the last few years.  They don’t give Taylor Hall a four-year deal and then acquire and extend Hampus Lindholm with an eye on rebuilding.  With the injuries they’ll be dealing with to start next season, a short-term step back was at least justifiable.  But with Patrice Bergeron now expected to return, that idea goes out the window; he’s not coming back to help ease the team through a short-term teardown.  That takes the idea of potentially trading Pastrnak and Marchand (the latter of which was probably unlikely to happen anyway) off the table.

W H Twittle: If so, could a trade be built on the basis of Pastrnak for NJ’s 2022 #2 draft pick? Obviously, NJ would need to add a couple of A pieces… that may include their 2023 1st round pick and an A prospect?

Let’s get another Boston one in here.  No, I don’t believe David Pastrnak for that second selection is a viable option for either side.  But as I just noted, the Bruins aren’t bringing Bergeron back to then turn around and start selling off key players.  If that was the route they were taking, Bergeron would be hanging up his skates.  If things don’t go well during the season, that could very well change closer to the trade deadline but this type of trade certainly won’t be on the table at that time.

Moving that second pick (and potentially other assets) for Pastrnak makes little sense for the Devils either.  If they’re going to move a premium draft pick, it will be for someone in the prime of their career that has several years of team control left (either through being under contract or club control).  They’re not moving that pick for a rental player that still probably doesn’t get them into the playoffs next season.  And if I’m Pastrnak, with all due respect to New Jersey, I’m not passing up a chance at testing the market to sign a long-term contract with them.

I think people are getting a little too hyped up about the idea of New Jersey moving this draft pick.  They’re not shopping the it, they’re simply listening to offers and coming up with a list of players that could make sense to trade for that fit their parameters.  Those parameters would involve club control and long-term salary cap planning, among other elements.  I don’t think there would be more than four or five players league-wide on that list.  Of those, how many will actually be available to move?  Maybe two?  If GM Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t get the perfect (and I mean perfect, not a ‘close enough’ scenario) offer, they’ll happily keep that pick.  There are more ways to get an impact player than by trading a high lottery selection.

Johnny Z: Some have the Flyers being interested in acquiring DeBrincat, what would that look like?

While I, like many, expect Philadelphia to shake things up in terms of their core forwards, I don’t think it’d be for Alex DeBrincat.  He’s under the old rule for qualifying offers so he’ll be owed a minimum of $9MM for his qualifier in 2023 although if he has another year like this one, he’ll be getting more than that.  That’s going to be tough to fit into their salary structure.

Then there’s the acquisition cost.  Chicago would undoubtedly want the fifth-overall pick and with the situation the Flyers are in, moving that pick wouldn’t be wise.  That’s their chance to get an impact, cost-controllable player to work into the lineup a couple of years from now to help offset some of their more bloated veteran deals.  I know they’re in win-now mode, but moving that pick isn’t a good idea.

There needs to be a cap element to the deal to help offset DeBrincat’s current $6.4MM AAV.  That could be James van Riemsdyk but if the Blackhawks don’t want to take that contract back, Oskar Lindblom’s $3MM deal could be an option.  Another first-round pick (their own in 2023) would need to be in there.  I could see Chicago asking about someone like Morgan Frost or Owen Tippett, former first-rounders that haven’t lit it up just yet.  There would probably be another prospect in there as well.  That’s a big package for a non-playoff team to pay, especially since DeBrincat alone probably doesn’t get them back to the playoffs.

If I’m GM Chuck Fletcher, I’d rather pay a quality pick or prospect to offload van Riemsdyk’s deal without taking money back and then take a serious run at Johnny Gaudreau in free agency.  If they did that and Gaudreau agreed to sign, they’d get a top-line winger without giving up a lot of their cost-controllable future.  But if I was Fletcher, I wouldn’t have made the Rasmus Ristolainen trade last summer either so even if I don’t think it’s a good idea, he might be thinking differently.

GBear: It’s July and Gbear has won the lottery and bought the Preds and fired David Poile. I’m bringing in Brian La Rose to interview for the vacant GM position. What moves would you make this offseason and who are you taking with the #17 pick of the draft? :)

Congrats on the big lottery win that allows you to swoop in and outbid Bill Haslam for the team.  Before I can answer though, my question to you is what’s my mandate?  Do I have the ability to do what I think is best or do you want some playoff revenue?  The two options aren’t the same.

Assuming you give me the ability to tear it down, that’s what I’d be looking to do.  I don’t think adding a piece or two to this core is going to vault them into contender status.  The Predators can keep treading water or they can take a step back and try to reload.  I’d look to leverage Matt Duchene’s season as a way to get out of his contract and take a cheaper one back.  That scenario was far-fetched last summer but a 43-goal season changes things.  Someone’s going to be desperate for a center later in the offseason and there’s an opportunity to strike.  I don’t see that being feasible for Ryan Johansen though.

I wouldn’t re-sign Filip Forsberg in that scenario and instead would use the cap space to take on a player from somewhere else, adding picks or prospects for doing so as Arizona has done recently.  Ideally, said player then would be flipped with retention at the deadline for another pick or prospect.  I’d make Mattias Ekholm available and try to leverage the lack of impact left-shot defenders available in free agency into a significant futures-based return.  With teams looking for a starting goalie, Juuse Saros could be had for a significant return; I’d be comfortable with some veteran buffers for a couple of years until Yaroslav Askarov is NHL-ready.  I’d aim for a two-year or three-year retooling so Roman Josi would stick around.  I’d want to see more minutes for Tanner Jeannot, Philip Tomasino, Eeli Tolvanen, and Alexandre Carrier to see if they’re part of the long-term plans so any cap dumps I’d pick up would be for lower roles on the roster.  Philippe Myers gets flipped for whatever the best offer is with the acquiring team getting a cap credit (a move that should be made in both win-now and sell-now scenarios).  Since this answer can’t go on forever, that’s a very quick overview of what my plan would be.

Now, if you’re telling me you want early playoff revenues, then it’s a much different approach.  Filip Forsberg gets his eight years around $8MM.  I’d target Vegas to try to add Nicolas Roy, giving the Preds a third center with some upside.  He’s a strong offer sheet target with their cap situation so this could be a chance to add to the position without the return being super high.  Andre Burakovsky would be a target to add on the wing to provide a two-way element while still boosting the scoring potential of the second line, shifting some of those younger players onto the third line to really balance out the attack.

On defense, I’d like someone like Josh Manson to shore up the back end but so would a lot of other teams.  I’d go into the upper $4MM range for his services which might not be enough to get it done.  Ideally, a physical shutdown defender that can take some pressure off the younger players and deepen the back end is the target.

The only reason there’s enough cap space to do all of this is the goaltending.  I’d use Connor Ingram as the backup for Saros over.  I think he has legitimate NHL upside and sneaking him through waivers isn’t going to happen.  His $758K cap hit provides some extra cap flexibility to upgrade an extra spot on the roster and I’d rather put money towards an every-game player over someone who probably is only going to play 20-25 times since there isn’t a big difference between Ingram and a $2MM to $3MM backup.  Those additions should be enough to keep the Preds in the playoff hunt for the next couple of years and perhaps even win a round and from there, you never know what can happen.

It’s hard to forecast who’s going to be available with the 17th pick but someone like Denton Mateychuk fits as someone in that range.  He’s a bit undersized but is a good offensive defenseman and adding someone to take some pressure off Josi when he slows down would help.  A center would be preferable though given the state of their prospect pool so Marco Kasper would also be high on my list.  He hasn’t looked out of place in the SHL and there’s a good defensive floor to work with.  I think there’s second-line upside with the offensive and a two-way top-six center would be a nice addition in the middle of the first round.

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