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Peter Chiarelli

Trade Candidates: Jordan Eberle

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

After a decade of aimlessly wandering in the wilderness, the Edmonton Oilers are finally on the rise. That means the possibility of buying at the NHL Trade Deadline to bolster their lineup for the playoffs. Because the Oilers aren’t what most would consider to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, GM Peter Chiarelli will need to avoid mortaging the future to add a rental player to the current roster. St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk has been linked to Edmonton at various times over the past seven months, but his apparent unwillingness to commit long-term in northern Alberta means a deadline deal is somewhat unlikely.

However, if there is a deal to be made that improves the Oilers for this season and the future, then that makes sense for Chiarelli to pursue. One of the names that has been out there for much of the season is Jordan Eberle. He could be an attractive option for a team looking for a scoring winger. The Oilers could use a right-handed offensive defenseman and a top-nine center with offensive ability. Should Leon Draisaitl continue to show great chemistry with Connor McDavid, he could be moved permanently to the starboard side. When you include prospect Jesse Puljujärvi, the Oilers have their top-six right wingers for the next decade. That could make the streaky Eberle available, for the right price.

Contract

Eberle has two more seasons left after this one at $6MM.

2016-17

It’s been a streaky season for Eberle, who has goalless droughts of six (twice), nine, and most recently 18 games. Despite only scoring in eight games this season, he has 11 goals in those eight games. That includes three two-goal games. After breaking the 18-game drought, he has three goals and five points in his last three games. He’s been a consistent 25-goal scorer in his career, and should regress to the mean over the rest of season.

Season Stats

49 games: 11 goals, 21 assists, 32 points. 53.9 CF%, -1, 17:19 ATOI.

Potential Suitors

TSN’s Darren Dreger recently reported (transcribed by Chris Nichols of FanRagSports.com) that the Oilers asking price for Eberle “has always been high, understandably so, because he’s been one of the Edmonton Oilers’ players that is a big part of the core.”

Dreger speculated that if the Oilers decided Eberle was expendable, it would “ignite some kind of short-term market.”

Teams looking for an offensive winger include Anaheim, Buffalo, Minnesota, Montreal, Nashville, the New York Islanders, Ottawa, and Vancouver. Anaheim may be a division rival, but has great defensive depth and could strike a deal based on a package including Brandon Montour. Nashville could offer someone like Craig Smith plus something else; Smith has scoring ability and can play either right wing or center. The Islanders have a glaring need for a winger for John Tavares, whom Eberle has a history with. After a year of Eberle-for-Travis Hamonic rumors, Garth Snow could be ready for a major shakeup.

Likelihood Of A Trade

During the season? Not likely. The Oilers have a 98.9 per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to SportsClubStats.com. The Oilers don’t want to make a big move that will affect their expansion plans or weaken their poor right-wing depth. They’ll look to make adds like they did with Patrick Maroon at last year’s deadline: an NHL player who can contribute beyond this season. It would take a perfect offer to force Chiarelli’s hand mid-season or before the expansion draft.

This off-season? Much more likely. Especially if Draisaitl continues to show well alongside McDavid and Puljujärvi shows improvement. The Oilers’ cap situation will get murky in the coming years, with McDavid, Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, and Matt Benning all needing new deals in the next two off-seasons.

Pacific Notes: Oilers, Flames, Holland, Marleau

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Although the Edmonton Oilers find themselves comfortably in a playoff spot, TSN’s Darren Dreger doesn’t expect GM Peter Chiarelli to make any big splashes, he told TSN 1260 in Edmonton (transcription courtesy of Fan Rag’s Chris Nichols):

“I don’t project that Chiarelli is going to be doing any big game hunting. That’s not to say he’s not listening, and if another defenseman was thrown into the market that the Oilers wouldn’t try and acquire that piece – or perhaps some depth on the wing, or maybe a little bit of insurance at center ice as well.”

Dreger suggests that one area that the Oilers could try to land an upgrade for is rookie Drake Caggiula’s third line center spot.  The youngster has fared okay in that role but the belief is that he’s more comfortable on the wing and given his smaller stature (5’9), he’s not an ideal fit down the middle.

[Related: Oilers Depth Chart]

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • Although he passed over goalies like Ben Bishop and Marc-Andre Fleury to acquire Brian Elliott from St. Louis last summer, Calgary GM Brad Treliving would be wise to reconsider those two options, suggests Jared Clinton of The Hockey News. Elliott has had more down moments than good ones and currently boasts a subpar 2.92 GAA and a .891 SV%.  Basically, he’s not the starter of the future to build around.  Backup Chad Johnson has fared better (a 2.41 GAA with a .917 SV%) but he isn’t viewed as a long-term starter either while youngster Jon Gillies is scuffling this year as he battles back from an injury-plagued 2015-16 season.  The Flames were active on the goalie market last summer and it’s shaping up to be that way again this coming offseason.
  • Arizona center Peter Holland was fined just over $3,600 for an unsuspecting punch to Tampa Bay’s Ondrej Palat, the Department of Player Safety announced (Twitter link). The incident occurred on Saturday night and the fine represents the maximum allowable under the CBA.
  • San Jose’s Patrick Marleau had quite the third period yesterday. He became only the 12th player in NHL history to score four goals in a single period and was the first to do in nearly 20 years (Mario Lemieux matched that feat on January 26, 1997 against Montreal).  As CSN Bay Area’s Kevin Kurz notes, Marleau was dropped down a line prior to the third and clearly the move paid immediate dividends.  After a quiet start to the year, Marleau has 16 goals on the season and sits three away from 500 for his career.

Oilers Waive Gustavsson, Demote Puljujärvi

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On the heels of a tough loss in Ottawa, the Edmonton Oilers have made a few widely expected roster moves.

Backup goaltender Jonas Gustavsson has been placed on waivers after another poor performance that cost the Oilers a win. Fourth-overall pick Jesse Puljujärvi has been sent to Bakersfield of the AHL and winger Anton Slepyshev has been called up after a strong couple weeks with the Condors.

The Oilers coach, Todd McLellan clearly does not trust Gustavsson, as Cam Talbot is on pace to play 74 games, which would rank in the top-20 all-time for games-played by a goaltender in a single season. Gustavsson has a 1-3-1 record in seven appearances with a 0.878 SV % and a 3.10 GAA. His last two appearances have come exactly a month apart, with him allowing six goals on 31 shots in a tough 6-5 to the Flyers on December 8, and then allowing four goals on 17 shots in last night’s 5-3 loss in Ottawa.

It remains to be seen who will replace Gustavsson: the Oilers top goaltending prospect, Laurent Brossoit, has been struggling this year but has a great track record in the AHL. The Oilers could also make a claim on Curtis McElhinney, who was waived by the Blue Jackets earlier today. Postmedia’s Jim Matheson suggested Jaroslav Halak and Michal Neuvirth, among others, as possible replacements for Gustavsson. Halak recently cleared waivers, but Matheson suggests a deal could be made if the Islanders are willing to take back money (Mark Fayne, perhaps?). Neuvirth is a fringe starter who is a pending UFA, both positive qualities in a backup.

Meanwhile, Puljujärvi has struggled to break into the NHL, with one goal and eight points in 28 games, mostly in the bottom six. His only goal came in the season opener. It’s a curious decision by the Oilers, as Puljujärvi has been on the roster for 42 games, meaning the Oilers have burned a year of RFA eligibility to keep him on the roster in order to keep him in the NHL as a healthy scratch or playing less-than 10 minutes per night (the deadline is 40 games on the roster). He was scratched for the Oilers last two games, and played just three minutes in his last appearance. While, there’s something to be said for getting him acclimated to North America (Puljujärvi only speaks around 100 words of English), it’s not clear why Peter Chiarelli waited until just past the second important deadline to send him down. It’s akin to a team waiting until a rookie has played 10 games then sending him back to junior. The Oilers hope Puljujärvi will regain his offensive confidence by spending some time playing big minutes with the Condors.

The player replacing Puljujärvi has benefitted from a brief stint in the AHL. Slepyshev has been much improved this season; he scored one assist in 11 NHL games and 21 points in 49 AHL games in 2015-16. This season, he has two goals and four points in 15 NHL games and 10 points in nine games with the Condors. Look for him to get a chance in the Oilers top-nine to make a difference with Puljujärvi demoted and Tyler Pitlick done for the season.

Snapshots: Russell, Eichel, Gilmour

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Oilers defenseman Kris Russell is a divisive figure in the hockey world. Stop me if you’ve heard this before.

Russell has five points (all assists) in 31 games with the Oilers, mostly playing on the team’s second pairing with Andrej Sekera. He’s been part of the best Oilers blue-line since 2008, and is considered one of the reasons that the Oilers are sitting in third in the Pacific Division and on pace for a 65-goal improvement in goal differential. The Oilers are 17-7-7 with Russell in the lineup and 2-5-0 without him.

However, hockey fans, executives, and experts are torn on Russell’s impact. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli plans on discussing an extension with Russell’s camp and is on record as being “pretty happy” with Russell. That opinion is not shared by the majority of the analytics community, including Oilers blogger Darcy McLeod. McLeod’s analytical work is respected among the blogging community and appears regularly on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. He took a closer look at the impact that Russell has on teammates, specifically the claims that Russell has a positive effect on “shooting percentage of team mates and zone exits that lead to offensive zone entries.”

Chiarelli has previously mentioned those two micro-stats as evidence for why he likes Russell. McLeod explored Russell’s effect on teammates in his two seasons with Calgary and all his games with the Oilers this season. The full article is well-worth the read. Ultimately, he concludes that the positive effect that Russell had on Flames teammates did not carry over to Edmonton, and that out of the Oilers’ four centers, only Mark Letestu scores better with Russell on the ice, writing that “if Russell excels at zone exits, these exits are not resulting in more goals for the Oilers.” Even Connor McDavid scores nearly a full point less per-60 minutes while sharing the ice with Russell.

McLeod writes that he still believes Russell is a valuable number-four or five defenseman, but doesn’t believe the Oilers should sign him long-term, with Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, Darnell Nurse, and Brandon Davidson all being left-handed defenders under contract and posting better results than Russell. A one-year, $3MM contract would be acceptable to McLeod, but signing Russell and trading any of the above-mentioned defensemen would be “a downgrade in the quality of the Left Handed Dcorps of the Edmonton Oilers.”

  • The second overall pick behind McDavid, Jack Eichel, expressed his disappointment with the way the Sabres’ season has gone so far. Despite the Sabres’ struggles (they’re currently last in the East), Eichel says the team hasn’t given up yet. He told John Vogl that “everyone needs to look in the mirror and we all need to get a lot better. I think I speak for the team in saying that we’re all frustrated with where we’re at, and I don’t think I’m the only person in the locker room that’s not satisfied.” It’s clear that Eichel is also stepping up as a leader in the locker room, and seems like the most-likely candidate to replace Brian Gionta as the next captain of the Sabres.
  • Monday marks the 25th anniversary of one of the most infamous trades in NHL history. On January 2, 1992, the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Doug Gilmour in a 10-player trade with the Calgary Flames. The Leafs sent Gary Leeman, Craig Berube, Alexander Godynyuk, Michel Petit, and Jeff Reese to Calgary for Gilmour, Jamie Macoun, Kent Manderville, Ric Nattress, and Rick Wamsley. As with most controversial trades, it was immediately labelled as robbery by the Maple Leafs. In this case, that turned out to be quantifiably true. Sean McIndoe broke down the trade over at Sportsnet, and pointed out that if you remove Gilmour, the trade is just barely a wash for the Flames. But the trade did include Gilmour, who was recently named the 13th-best Maple Leaf of all time. He scored 452 points in 392 games during his first stint with the team, returning for just five shifts before suffering a career-ending injury in 2003.

 

The Busiest Day Of The Summer: Six Months Later

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Thursday, December 29 marks the six-month anniversary of the wildest 23 minutes in NHL history.

On June 29, the Oilers traded Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson, the Canadiens traded P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber, and the Tampa Bay Lightning signed captain Steven Stamkos to an eight-year extension. All three of those moves came between 2:34pm and 2:57pm.

So far, the results have been mixed for the teams involved: the Devils are last in the Metropolitan Division, the Oilers are finally a playoff contender, the Canadiens are back to tops in their division, and Stamkos is likely to miss the last four-to-six months of the season.

Let’s take a closer look at the initial results for each team:

Edmonton Oilers — The decision to trade Hall was not popular in the Edmonton market. The former face of the Oilers rebuild had become one of the top left wingers in the world, behind only Alex Ovechkin and Jamie Benn on most rankings. Hall had 328 points in 381 games with the Oilers, despite the Oilers lack of NHL defensemen and centers for much of his tenure there. Ultimately, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli felt comfortable replacing Hall with free agent Milan Lucic in order to secure a young, right-handed defenseman on a good contract. So far, Larsson has helped stabilize the Oilers defense with solid, if unspectacular play. Larsson has just six points in 36 games, but has developed chemistry with Oscar Klefbom on the Oilers future top pairing. The Oilers are currently second in the Pacific Division, and are showing real improvement over the last seven seasons. However, they are still a few pieces away from becoming a real contender, despite Connor McDavid’s excellent play. While Larsson has been solid, the Oilers definitely gave up value on the trade, making this trade, at best, a passing grade for Chiarelli. Devils GM Ray Shero told Elliotte Friedman that “people want to decide winners and losers right away, but you have to build a team.” If the Oilers don’t manage to make the playoffs this season, then the pressure on Chiarelli will increase tenfold.

Montreal Canadiens — If the decision to trade Hall was considered unpopular in Edmonton, the Subban trade was even more so when the deal was announced. Subban had been a key fixture of the Montreal community in his six full seasons there. However, the final year of his tenure was full of controversy, beginning with Subban’s $10MM donation to the local children’s hospital. Many read into Max Pacioretty being named captain over Subban, and the conspicuous lack of a King Clancy nomination (for community leadership and humanitarian contributions) from his teammates. Then Carey Price got hurt and the Canadiens season went to hell. Whispers of trade rumors began. In particular, a February incident where Canadiens coach Michel Therrien singled out Subban for a give-away that led to a game-winning goal versus the Avalanche led to intensified rumors. Nothing seemed likely until the Predators offered Shea Weber just after the draft in June. The trade was much maligned for Weber’s age and the perception that his abilities were declining. That hasn’t proven to be the case just yet, as Weber has been the catalyst for the Canadiens resurgence. He has 20 points in 35 games so far, on pace for 25 goals and 57 points, both of which would represent career-highs. TSN’s Darren Dreger appeared on Montreal radio on Thursday morning and declared the Canadiens as the current winners of the trade. Weber’s presence and style of play is, by Dreger’s estimation, a better fit “for what the Montreal Canadiens needed.”

Nashville Predators — When news of the Subban-Weber trade came down, most in the hockey world couldn’t believe the news. No one could think of the last time two superstar captains and giants in their local community were traded for each other, one for one. The enormity of the deal was not lost on the two teams, with one front office member telling Friedman “I think both teams had moments where they couldn’t believe what they were considering.” Weber had been a pillar in Nashville since he first broke into the NHL, but the tough Western Conference was beginning to catch up with him. Defense partner Roman Josi was considered to be the better passer and skater, and some argued Josi was carrying the pair. With the Predators entering a new window of Cup contention, getting younger and more mobile became a priority, especially after trading Seth Jones in January. Subban’s style of play fits the Predators’ plans better. So far, Subban has 17 points in 29 games (a 58-point pace) but has been hurt since the middle of December. The Predators are barely above .500 and two points out of the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference. The trade definitely looks better for the Canadiens as of this writing, but the Predators are sure to figure things out soon. Considering Subban is four years younger than Weber, Nashville’s window should be open longer with Subban over Weber. That’s what GM David Poile wanted when he took the risk to move Weber, but he obviously feels the reward is worth it to add Subban to an already dynamic group of defensemen in Nashville. Let’s call this one a temporary win for Montreal with Nashville looking better long-term.

New Jersey Devils — After the trade went through, Shero told Friedman that he felt the Devils had the defensive depth to make the trade, referencing his time with the Penguins, where he traded Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski with with the knowledge that Kris Letang was up and coming. The Devils clearly believe that Damon Severson has the ability to become a top-pairing defenseman and replace Larsson. What New Jersey did not have was an up and coming offensive dynamo remotely close to Hall’s skill level. Shero told Friedman that teams had asked about Larsson’s availability and were told the only way that he would trade Larsson “is if it really makes sense.” Acquiring a franchise offensive player made sense. Hall has performed admirably for the Devils, and is currently on pace to score 54 points in 64 games while battling injuries. Unfortunately for the Devils, they remain in last place in their division and look unlikely to make the playoffs. The situation must be frustratingly familiar for Hall, who spent six seasons in Edmonton scoring at a high level with little defensive support. As mentioned above, the Devils clearly won the trade based on trade value, but as Shero said it’s all about building a team. Shero will need to build more support for franchise players Hall and Cory Schneider to work their way up the standings. If you ignore Edmonton being in contention for a playoff spot and New Jersey being in the lottery watch, New Jersey won the trade, hands down. Take team building into consideration, and the trade looks a little closer. It’s still a clear win for the Devils to acquire a legitimate superstar for less than full trade value.

Tampa Bay Lightning — Had it happened on any other day during the previous year, Stamkos re-signing in Tampa Bay would have dominated the news cycle for at least two or three days. But after the craziness of the half-hour preceding the announcement, it seemed to take something of a backseat to the pair of blockbuster trades. Stamkos took less than his perceived market value to stay in Tampa Bay where his heart is. He’s expressed his desire to retire as a member of the Lightning. Lightning GM Steve Yzerman told Friedman that he really didn’t know what would happen: “I wasn’t really sure what was going to happen. In the last week, we had no control.” But Stamkos ultimately chose to stay in Tampa Bay. With his blood clot and contract cleared up, Stamkos got off to a torrid start, scoring 20 points in 17 games. He was on pace for a 52-goal, 105-point season before a lateral meniscus tear put his season on hold until March at the earliest. There is some risk to having a player signed for eight years with three consecutive season-ending injuries (fractured tibia, blood clot, and meniscus tear). Injuries aside, signing a superstar scorer for $8.5MM per season long-term is a great deal for the Lightning, and leaves Yzerman room to do his best to keep the Lighting’s core together. Should Stamkos be able to stay healthy, then there’s no question that both sides will consider this contract a win.

The Edmonton Oilers’ Backup Situation

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Following the Oilers spectacular 6-5 loss on Thursday night, much digital ink has been spilled about their backup goaltending. Jonas Gustavsson allowed six goals on 31 shots as the Oilers blew a pair of two-goal leads.

GM Peter Chiarelli signed Gustavsson on July 1 to a one-year, $800K contract to serve as backup to Cam Talbot. While Gustavsson is thought to be a good guy on the bench, his career numbers (0.902 SV%, 2.87 GAA) are well below league-average. His numbers through six appearances this season are even worse: his 0.893 SV% and 2.90 GAA rank fifth-last among goaltenders who have played at least six games. Gustavsson has just one win this year, back in early November in his first start with the club.

OilersNation writer Jonathan Willis wrote that the Oilers should quickly move on from Gustavsson, pointing out that “if he’d made one extra save last night—and given the number of bad goals he surrendered, it’s easy to imagine that… That would work out to [his career] save percentage of 0.902.”

Based on his usage of Talbot and Gustavsson, it’s clear that coach Todd McLellan has little faith in his backup. Talbot has played two more games than any other goalie in the NHL at 26. He’s on pace to start 71 games, which would be the highest since Braden Holtby started 73 back in 2014-15. Meanwhile Gustavsson has only started four games, all of which were part of back-to-back situations.

Willis wrote that the best defense of the signing was that the Oilers have faith in their minor league starter, Laurent Brossoit. Brossoit has progressed very well in his three seasons as their AHL starter. His save percentage has risen from 0.918 to 0.920 to a sparkling 0.927 this season. The only concern that the Oilers may have about Brossoit is the expansion draft. Because Brossoit is eligible to be selected, bringing him to the NHL and showing him off may prompt Vegas to pick him. However, this would mean the Oilers would be able to keep Brandon Davidson, the most likely player to be taken by the Golden Knights. As well, the Oilers have another AHL goalie, Nick Ellis, who has played very well in his eight games with a 0.931 SV% to take over the mantle in Bakersfield.

If not Brossoit, the Oilers could possibly take a look at Reto Berra, who’s buried behind Roberto Luongo and James Reimer in Florida, or even swap struggling backups with Leafs and see if a change of scenery helps Jhonas Enroth.

Oilers Place Nurse On IR, Recall Simpson

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The Edmonton Oilers have placed defenseman Darnell Nurse on Injured Reserve (IR) and recalled Dillon Simpson from their AHL affiliate in Bakersfield.

It’s not clear what is wrong with Nurse, who hasn’t missed a game all season. Coach Todd McLellan told the media Nurse will be out long-term with a lower-body injury suffered in the Oilers last game, a 6-3 win in Winnipeg. McLellan said GM Peter Chiarelli will update Nurse’s condition in the coming days, as is the Oilers custom with serious injuries.

Nurse played 70 seconds more than his average time-on-ice in Winnipeg. He’s been much improved this season, and has five points in 25 games. Nurse struggled last season when he was forced to play top-minutes as a rookie.

Because of Nurse’s injury, the Oilers have switched up their defense pairings for tonight’s game against Anaheim. Andrej Sekera will pair with rookie Matt Benning; Oscar Klefbom and Mark Fayne will form the second pair; Kris Russell and Adam Larsson the other pair (pairs per Bob Stauffer). Simpson will serve as the seventh defenseman, with Nurse, Brandon Davidson, and Eric Gryba all on IR.

Simpson has yet to play an NHL game, but has already been called up once this season as insurance for an injured player. He has one goal in 12 games with the Condors this season. The 2011 fourth-round pick is considered an all-round player who doesn’t have one standout skill, but is just good enough at each part of the game. The Edmonton-native is the son of former Oiler and Hockey Night in Canada commentator Craig Simpson.

Oilers Notes: Early Goals, Eberle, Depth

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It’s been a tale of two seasons so far for the Edmonton Oilers.

The Oilers were 7-1-0 on October 30. That night, they lost an emotional game versus Craig Anderson and the Ottawa Senators. Since then, it’s been tough sledding for the Oilers. Including the Senators game, Edmonton has gone 2-5-1 in the last eight games.

Their recent losing streak has shown a tough tendency: the Oilers have been scored on in the first two minutes eight times so far this season. Six of those early goals have been scored in the last eight games, including the last three games straight.

It’s not clear why the Oilers keep surrendering early goals, but they do seem to be able to score their way back into games. Despite being down so early in half their games, they’ve only trailed at the first intermission twice in those eight games.

Perhaps no player embodies the Oilers recent struggles as much as Jordan Eberle. The longest-serving Oiler has five points in his last five games, but besides a two-goal outburst in last week’s loss against the Penguins, he hasn’t scored a goal since October 18. He spent his summer working on his shot and one-timer to help him playing with Connor McDavid, but Eberle’s shot hasn’t looked any better or helped him score on the power-play.

Eberle was pulled off McDavid’s wing during Sunday night’s loss to the Rangers., and coach Todd McLellan told reporters post-game that “based on tonight, Ebs wouldn’t get a passing grade in my books. Or else he would have stayed [on McDavid’s wing]. You earn your keep, and Ebs didn’t earn it tonight in my mind.”

Having a $6MM sniper like Eberle struggle like this is tough for any team, let alone one with little depth behind him. Beyond Eberle, the Oilers have Jesse Puljujärvi, Zack Kassian, and Tyler Pitlick.

Kassian has looked solid this season, but isn’t suited to playing above a third line checking/ depth scoring role. Pitlick has been a pleasant surprise for the Oilers, making the team in his sixth pro season and working his way up the lineup. His five goals tie him with McDavid, Milan Lucic, and Eberle for second-most on the Oilers behind Patrick Maroon. Pitlick was the one to replace Eberle on McDavid’s line during Sunday night’s loss.

Puljujärvi appeared to be getting the hang of the NHL game before missing a game with a Charley horse. He’s been held pointless since and looks like he could use a stint in the AHL to get his confidence back. That may not happen, unless the Oilers move Leon Draisaitl to the wing or add a veteran NHLer. TSN Edmonton radio host Allan Mitchell (aka Lowetide online) wrote that the Oilers “problems are identifiable, but the solutions will cost assets — and I wonder if Peter Chiarelli is willing to make those sacrifices at this point in the season.”

The Oilers appeared to be counting on college rookie Drake Caggiula to play third line center and move Draisaitl to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ wing, but Caggiula suffered a hip injury in pre-season action and has been out since. It will be interesting to see how Chiarelli handles the Oilers season: despite a tough stretch, they’re still tops in the Pacific Division and are probably two or three pieces away from being a contender. If Chiarelli can add a veteran right winger and an offensive-minded defenseman to help the power-play, then Oilers fans can be confident that the team’s first eight games are more indicative of their real ability than the last eight games.

Connor McDavid’s Next Contract

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He may be eight months away from being able to sign it, and 20 months before it takes effect, but Connor McDavid’s second contract is already a topic of conversation in the hockey world.

Despite being only 19-years-old and 55 games into his NHL career, McDavid is already a top-five player in the NHL. Of course, he’s scored 60 points in those 55 games, and is currently sitting tied for second in NHL scoring. He’s also the youngest captain in NHL history and the unquestioned face of the Oilers franchise.

McDavid is currently in the second year of his three-year entry-level contract. Including bonuses, McDavid can make $3.775MM per season. He’s eligible to negotiate and sign a contract extension on July 1, 2017. The longest term possible is eight years, something that’s a given for the Oilers but perhaps a point of worry for the McDavid camp. On Tuesday night’s Insider Trading, TSN and ESPN insider Pierre Lebrun floated the idea that the potential lockout in 2020 or 2022 could affect the player agent’s willingness to sign through that. He followed that up on Wednesday morning on TSN radio in Vancouver, pointing to the past CBA’s effects on player contracts. In 2005, there was a 24% salary rollback to all players; in 2013 they added cap recapture penalties to so-called “cheat deals” like Shea Weber’s. While Lebrun isn’t saying McDavid doesn’t want to sign an eight-year extension in Edmonton, he does point out the possibility of a four-year deal because “there’s some concern that when the CBA ends, maybe they need to protect themselves because the rules may change on existing contracts.”

Numbers-wise, McDavid is a very likely candidate to become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Chris Johnston discussed McDavid on Tuesday night’s Sportsnet Hockey Central, opining that he “doesn’t see any” situation where McDavid doesn’t become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Currently, Blackhawks forwards Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane’s $10.5MM cap hits are the highest in the NHL. Kings captain Anze Kopitar is the only other player making $10MM or more.

Of course, the Oilers could luck out if McDavid is as superstitious as the previous “next one” Sidney Crosby. Following his standard entry-level contract, Crosby has signed two separate contracts with an AAV of $8.7MM, which of course is the same as his number. Getting McDavid signed at under $10MM per season would be a major win for the Oilers and allow them to build a stronger team around him. Both sides can look no further than the Blackhawks struggles to keep their team together with Toews and Kane accounting for a combined $21MM against the cap.

Including LTIR-relief from former captain Andrew Ference (career-ending hip surgery), the Oilers are around $5MM below the cap. Things will change in the summer, when Leon Draisaitl is an RFA. Look for depth defenseman Mark Fayne to bought out or traded with salary retained to clear most of his $3.625MM cap hit, and perhaps a trade involving a bigger salaried player. McDavid and Darnell Nurse finish their entry-level contracts in 2018, and then Jesse Puljujärvi in 2019 (presuming he stays in the NHL this year and doesn’t slide.

While negotiations cannot begin until July, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli and his management team are already having internal discussions about the contract, and so are McDavid’s agents, Jeff Jackson and Bobby Orr. Expect a similar timeline to fellow exceptional status recipient and first-overall pick Aaron Ekblad signing his extension with Florida; the two sides agreed in principle to a new deal early in the morning of July 1st.

Johnston was dead-on when he called extending McDavid the “biggest decision the Oilers are going to have for the next decade.”

Chiarelli Cautiously Optimistic About Oilers Start

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Edmonton Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli is cautiously optimistic about his team’s 5-1-0 start to the 2016-17 NHL season. In an appearance on Sportsnet 590 The Fan, Chiarelli told Bob McCown that he “wouldn’t call it that dramatic yet. Let’s wait 20 or 25 games. We’ve had a good start.”

The Oilers find themselves leading the NHL’s Western Conference with 10 points, which is good for second in the NHL behind the Montreal Canadiens. One of the big reasons for the Oilers early turnaround is a bolstered defense, improving their ability to break out the puck and defend, a change that Chiarelli called “basically 180 degrees.”

“We’ve added Larsson; we’ve added Russell, and effectively we added Klefbom.”

Adam Larsson was added at a great cost, while Kris Russell was signed to a one-year contract in early October. Oscar Klefbom was a breakout player in the end of 2014-15 and beginning of 2015-16, but broke his finger in early December and a subsequent staph infection kept him out of the remainder of the season.

Add those three to Andrej Sekera and the Oilers have a decent top-four defense for the first time since 2008-09 when they had Sheldon Souray, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov, and Lubomir Visnovsky all post more than 30 points. The Oilers had 85 points that season, and they haven’t topped 74 since.

Besides the defense, Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot have been very solid so far this season, with both being named the NHL’s first star of the week in the first two weeks of the season. McDavid has 4 goals and 5 assists for 9 points in 6 games, while Talbot is 5-1-0 with a 0.919 SV% and one shutout.

The Oilers will face a stiff test on Wednesday night when they host Alex Ovechkin and the reigning President’s Trophy winners, the Washington Capitals. Washington is sitting third in the Metropolitan with a 3-1-1 record.

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