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Nashville And The Win-Win Trade

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In these playoffs, there are quite a few players who are making their former teams look silly for ever moving on from them. Phil Kessel is one such example, Kyle Turris is another. There are also skaters who have been fantastic for their teams but the sight of whom doesn’t instill hatred in former team’s fans. Arizona faithful surely grimace every time Turris touches the pucks and drives up ice, but James Neal is still loved and adored by Pittsburgh fans. The primary reason being that the Penguins aren’t regretful. Neal was involved in a very important and team-altering trade that ended up benefited the Predators as much as it did the Penguins.

Rewind the clock  to the 2014 Draft. The Penguins have just been eliminated for the 5th straight postseason in disappointing fashion. The aging Jim Rutherford is brought in to right a ship that looks destined to take on more water. The Predators had completely missed the playoffs, tallying only 38 wins and relying upon a totally inept and anemic offense. Shea Weber had led the team in points on D and they had recently lost Ryan Suter to free agency, and after Hornqvist, Craig Smith, and Mike Fisher, there was practically nothing to push the pace offensively. Carter Hutton had to take the crease in the wake of Pekka Rinne having injury trouble and poor performance. Both teams needed a desperate shake up, and it wouldn’t come painlessly for either. GM David Poile spent the time with Rutherford to hammer out a deal that contained a fair bit of risk on both sides.

The ultimate deal resulted in the 61-point getting, former 40-goal scoring James Neal traded to Nashville for their leading scorer in Patrick Hornqvist, Nick Spaling, and a 2nd-round pick. Nashville lost two solid players on a defensive oriented team in hopes of shifting focus to a more offensive game. Pittsburgh isolated net-front presence and physicality as pieces they were lacking come playoff time. Both teams ended up reveling in the results of this gambit, but it is the sort of deal we see little of in today’s NHL – a win-win trade.

A recent example of an attempted high-risk win-win trade would be Shea Weber for P.K. Subban. One could make the case that GM Marc Bergevin was following a valid needs-based brand of logic, but for many reasons the move was short-sighted for the Canadiens. Montreal fans can claim hindsight, but Weber was always going to be due for decline and was arguably already lesser in value. Without delving further into that particular transaction, Nashville again made a prudent (but difficult) decision to move their captain, which paid dividends. Subban will be an integral part of their franchise for years.

Many teams are overly rigid in sticking to their core when it is obviously in need of change. Nashville not only shifted their core in a few short years, but adapted on the fly to a changing game. Poile acquired the necessary personnel to go deeper into the playoffs in an exceptionally talented Central division, and all GMs would be wise to look to his example. The blueprint for a win-win trade is to isolate what your team desperately needs, who can fill that need, and being willing to part with important players to acquire your man. Winning the value comparison on paper isn’t what should truly matter to GMs, Taking risks to make weaknesses strengths will never be a safe or easy move, but it is the sort of mentality that can win a franchise a Stanley Cup. This offseason, perhaps there will be more moves of this ilk.

Predators’ Draft Plummet

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If the Nashville Predators are ever to win a Stanley Cup, this seems the most likely year. Their window is far from closing, to be sure. But for a team that doesn’t often spend to the cap, their long-term finances may become complicated. They have a multitude of players performing well above their contract levels, are benefiting from Entry-Level Contracts (Viktor Arvidsson and Kevin Fiala), and the bulk of their team is in their late twenties. Nashville isn’t the most dynamic offensive force, but have gotten enough scoring  this outing to support the absurdly good top-four defense and brilliant goaltending from Pekka Rinne (.951 SV%).

That said, if they fail to win the glorious prize at the end of four series, will their draft plummet be seen as worth the hassle? They finished with the West’s lowest seeding in Wild Card 2, and the worst overall record in the playoffs at 94 points, edging out the Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs. Their draft plummet is quite the precarious one, similar to the 8th seeded 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings in the entry draft. Of course, that team went 16-4 in the postsesason to win the Stanley Cup, and certainly didn’t mind sacrificing a higher first-round pick to win their franchise’s first title.

But what if they hadn’t won? By advancing to the post-season’s final four, Los Angeles automatically shifted from drafting 16th to 30th. If the Predators were to lose in the Conference Finals, it would mean a drop from 17th to 28th. A Finals loss would mean 30th. Obviously, fans aren’t concerned with these sorts of trivialities when rooting on their team to glory, nor necessarily should they be. However, for management, this is quite the potential concern. Finding failure late in the playoffs and then also suffering the sting of a draft position dive is tough to stomach. After all, deals can sometimes hinge on whether a first or second round pick is early, mid, or late round.

For reference, let us look at the last 10 years draft history with regard to the 17th and 28th selections to see the potential disparity:

2016: 17th D Dante Fabbro (NSH), 28th F Lucas Johannson (WSH)

2015: 17th F Kyle Connor (WPG), 28th F Anthony Beauvillier (NYI)

2014: 17th D Travis Sanheim (PHI), 28th Josh Ho-Sang (NYI)

2013: 17th F Curtis Lazar (OTT), 28th F Morgan Klimchuck (CGY)

2012: 17th F Tomas Hertl (SJ), 28th D Brady Skjei (NYR)

2011: 17th F Nathan Beaulieu (MTL), 28th F Zach Phillips (MIN)

2010: 17th F Joey Hison (COL), 28th F Charlie Coyle (MIN)

2009: 17th D David Rundblad (STL), 28th F Dylan Olsen (TBL)

2008: 17th D Jake Gardiner (ANA), 28th F Viktor Tikhonov (PHX)

2007: 17th F Alexei Cherepanov (NYR), 28th Nick Petrecki (SJ)

The jury is still completely out on last year’s draft class, but as you can see, the two prior years have worked out quite well for the New York Islanders at the 28th spot. Beauvillier and Ho-Sang have both developed into studs quite quickly, while Connor and Sanheim still have a lot to prove. As we look at the last decade of entry drafts, there seems to be no real discernible advantage in terms of NHL projection. So although 11 spots seems like an awful long way to drop, Nashville (and any other future conference finalists) can rest easy that their relative success will still hinge upon being able to scout and develop talent properly.

Allen’s Latest: Playoff Surprises, Second Round Predictions

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The USA Today’s Kevin Allen listed his playoff surprises as teams advanced into the second round. His biggest surprise is a take shared by many: the four game sweep of the Chicago Blackhawks. He wonders if they’ve “run out of magic” and comments that the team looked worn out. He also believes that Stan Bowman will be a man of his word and certainly look to tweak the roster. The house cleanings in Buffalo, and Los Angeles certainly caught Allen (and others) by surprise. He believes that the recently fired Dean Lombardi may be just what Buffalo needs to get over the hump. Allen underscores the importance of Jake Allen in the Blues’ first round triumph, and notes that Alexander Radulov should get a hefty payday after playing well with Montreal. Allen also sees Ryan Johansen as the #1 center the Predators envisioned him to be when they dealt for him last season.

  • Allen mentions Johansen again when he points out the five reasons Nashville shocked Chicago in four games. Besides getting the best of Chicago defensively, he notes that Pekka Rinne rose to the occasion and was next to impossible to beat between the pipes. Rinne posted a staggering .976 save percentage and gave up just three goals in four games. Allen adds that the Predators were also a much deeper team than the one who faced Chicago back in 2015. Finally, strategic moves by head coach Peter Laviolette played a key role in Chicago’s inability to contain the Preds. Focusing on speed, by placing Harry Zolnierczyk and Pontus Aberg into the lineup made the Blackhawks lives miserable trying to keep up.
  • In terms of who will advance to the conference finals, Allen is the only one of his staff who sees the Penguins getting past the Capitals. He believes the Penguins speed will cause matchup problems for Washington, and result in yet another Washington-Pittsburgh tilt that sees the Penguins triumph. Allen has the Rangers meeting the Penguins in the Eastern Conference Final, dispatching the Senators in six games. Over in the West, Allen forecasts an Anaheim-Nashville Western Conference Final, though he thinks both matchups will see seven games, writing that the Nashville-St. Louis series is most likely a toss up.

Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One

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Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.

The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is –  Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.

Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7%  – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year.  Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.

Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.

Playoff Notes: Blackhawks-Predators, Matthews, McDavid

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Game one of the playoff series between Nashville and Chicago certainly didn’t play out how many expected. Not only did the Predators steal a game in Chicago, they managed to shut out one of the most potent offenses. The Chicago Tribune’s Steve Rosenbloom “dares” the Predators to try and play a similar game against the Blackhawks in Game two. Rosenbloom writes that the Preds played “old-time” hockey which saw a vintage style of play from the 90’s: get a goal and sit on the lead. Rosenbloom goes on, adding that the Hawks didn’t take advantage of several gifts from Nashville while also giving Preds netminder Pekka Rinne too easy of a job Thursday evening.

  • Meanwhile, the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that while it shocked many, those in the Nashville locker room never doubted for a second that they could compete with their Central division rival. Vingan writes that the season series was much closer than people think, and that for the Preds to head home up 2-0, Rinne must be “sensational” like he was in the first game while Nashville must sustain the aggressiveness that made them a higher scoring team in the regular season. Nashville, Vingan adds, must not allow Chicago to dominate play as they did in the final two periods.
  • Yahoo’s Greg Wyshynski reports that the league is monitoring the ratings for the games involving young superstars Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. NBC Sports Executive Producer Sam Flood believes that a long playoff run would only make McDavid and Matthews more likely to be on NBC next season. Flood added that NBC responded to the hype of both players, flexing in games with the young stars to guarantee them air time. The next three games for both players’ teams will be featured on the NBC Sports Network, instead of the USA network. Wyshynski advises hockey fans eager to see more of McDavid and Matthews should tune in to those games.

Playoff Puzzle: Western Goaltending Experience

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Corey Crawford must feel like an old man these days. When the Chicago Blackhawks goaltender looks around at the creases of his main rivals in the Western Conference, one thing is constant: inexperience. He knows it well, from when he took on the Vancouver Canucks in 2011 as a rookie. At the other end of the rink was a 31-year old Roberto Luongo, who had already been through three playoff runs and was about to win the Jennings trophy for dominating in the regular season.

Crawford and the Hawks would lose in seven games, but it was an important step towards their cup win in 2013 when he would post a .932 save percentage—still the best mark of his career. It’s not easy to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, even if you do have an excellent group in front of you. Just ask Martin Jones, who actually played his best hockey last year in the Finals against Pittsburgh, despite losing. It took a while for him to really find his groove and even then it wasn’t enough.

So when Crawford sees the standings and notices a trend among the biggest contenders, it might make him even more confident heading into this year’s tournament. Perhaps even if he is a bit older, that experience will pay off in the toughest two months of any sport.

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Injury Notes: Goalie Pads, Stastny, Dumba

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Since February 4th, every goaltender in the league has had to wear the new tighter fitting pants in games. While some goalies like Robin Lehner and Pekka Rinne have come out in favor of the new style, others are having difficulty adjusting. Eric Engels of Sportsnet spoke to both Carey Price and Al Montoya about them, who told him they are considering sending pictures of the new bruises they’ve suffered because of the lack of protection. Price in particular showed Engels that he got hit in the inside of his thigh with a shot, where there is almost no protection.

While it’s unclear if the two would actually send the pictures, it is a concern as the league moves forward with smaller equipment. With shots becoming harder and harder in the game, and players moving at a faster pace, protection of goaltenders is still a huge point of contention for the NHL and NHLPA. While the league (and many players) wants higher scoring and believe that reducing equipment would help that, safety is still of a high importance. When a player of Price’s caliber speaks out, the player’s union is sure to listen.

Central Notes: Predators Goaltending, Staal, Blackhawks

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Although Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne is on pace to see action in more than 60 games for the third straight season, the team is likely to play him a bit less down the stretch, notes Adam Vingan of The Tennessean.  After shuffling between Marek Mazenec and Jusse Saros early on, Nashville has settled on the latter as the backup and Saros has fared quite well so far this year with a 1.79 GAA and a .941 SV%.

Accordingly, head coach Peter Laviolette has the confidence to use Saros a bit more often and is hoping that with Rinne not playing as much, he’ll benefit from the extra rest and parlay that into a better performance.

Saros has seen action in four games this month which isn’t bad for a backup goaltender.  The extra rest for Rinne has paid dividends so far; the two netminders have combined for a .944 SV% this month, the fourth highest league-wide in January.

More from the Central:

  • After a quiet 2015-16 campaign, Wild center Eric Staal is enjoying a career resurgence this year with 41 points (16-25-41) through 48 games. Head coach Bruce Boudreau told Dave Campbell of the Associated Press that he believes that his improved play this season stems from the fact that Staal is back in the position where he had the most success with Carolina early on – top line center with plenty of power play options while being in a winning environment, something that wasn’t the case in the last few years with the Hurricanes.  Staal’s three year, $10.5MM contract signed early in free agency has been one of the top bargains from the summertime.
  • The injury to Chicago’s Michal Rozsival is a lower body issue that will keep him out of the lineup for the next three weeks, reports Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune. Rozsival sustained the injury while blocking a shot in practice prior to the All-Star break.  The 38 year old has played a sparing role with the team this season, suiting up in just 14 games.
  • Still with the Blackhawks, centers Artem Anisimov and Marcus Kruger both missed Monday’s practice due to illnesses and their status for tonight’s game against the Sharks is uncertain, notes Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times. If they can’t go, center Dennis Rasmussen and winger Jordin Tootoo would likely draw back into the lineup.

Nashville Recalls Mazanec; Assigns Aberg, Saros To Milwaukee

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Marek Mazanec will miraculously get another shot in the NHL this season, as the Nashville Predators have announced that they’ve called him up Monday evening. Despite allowing 13 goals in three games in his first stint with the team, the 25-year old netminder will get another chance to back up Pekka Rinne this season. Pontus Aberg and Juuse Saros have been sent down to make room.

While Mazanec has struggled mightily this season, Saros has shined. In the three games the 21-year old has started at the NHL level, he has only allowed five goals and carries a .940 save percentage (amazingly still losing two of the games). Since Saros has out-performed Mazanec at both levels, perhaps this is a case of letting the younger goaltender start the majority of games in the minors to continue his development.

Aberg has played nine games for the Predators this season, registering two points in his first taste of the NHL. A former second-round pick of the team, Aberg has been a strong offensive producer at the AHL level, recording 83 points since his debut in 2014-15. While he only received around 11 minutes a night at the NHL level, he does still feature heavily in the plans of the Predators going forward. He’ll go down now and use the experience of the faster game to continue his development into a two-way winger.

Full List Of Mandatory-Protection Players In Expansion Draft

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Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston has published the full list of players who, due to no-movement clauses in their current contracts, must be protected in the upcoming expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. These are players who will count against the protection limits should they choose not to waive their NMC rights prior to the draft.

Each team has the right to protect either:

A) Seven forwards, three defenders, one goaltender

or

B) Eight skaters, one goaltender

These players will count against those numbers, and as Johnston points out, there are some notable inclusions and omissions from this group. Players like Jordan Staal, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan all had incorrect information spread about their contracts. The former two will now need protection, while the latter will not, due to his deal only having a no-movement to the minors clause.

The Chicago Blackhawks, with eight players listed, will have little flexibility at the draft, with only four forward spots (or one defenseman) left to use. Many others, according to Johnston, including Toronto’s Nathan Horton, are likely to be made exempt if they are still on LTIR as the draft approaches.

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