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2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 1-10

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With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018.  Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We ran numbers 11-20 yesterday, and will release an honorable mention group tomorrow.

1. John Tavares, C, New York Islanders — There was never any doubt that Tavares would hold the top spot on this list, and he was ranked #1 on all five ballots. The superstar Islanders center will only be 27 on July 1st, and could challenge Connor McDavid for the largest cap hit in the league if a bidding war starts over his services. Even with all of his career success, Tavares may have not experienced a season quite like this one, as he is currently tied for second in league scoring with 54 points in 46 games. There is very little negative that can be said about him, and teams could legitimately change their franchise direction by landing the biggest fish on the market.

2. John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals — Though it’s a steep drop off after Tavares, Carlson is an elite free agent in his own right. It’s rare that a defender of his caliber hits the open market, and the fact that he only just turned 28 makes him a target for 31 teams in the NHL. Logging more than 26 minutes a night this season on a depleted Washington blueline, Carlson trails only John Klingberg in terms of scoring from defensemen with 35 points through 45 games. Though it’ll be a tough case to make at the end of the season, Carlson should get some Norris consideration and could land a huge long-term contract.

3. Evander Kane, F, Buffalo Sabres — Everyone’s favorite trade rumor is headed to free agency after the season, as the Sabres haven’t even approached him to discuss an extension. Unless he’s so enamored with his next team and signs a contract right away, he should be able to pick a landing spot from a dozen or more suitors in the offseason. How many years teams will offer him has been disputed at times, but at just 26 he’s one of the youngest free agents to hit the market and should provide several years of prime performance.

4. James van Riemsdyk, F, Toronto Maple Leafs — van Riemsdyk doesn’t carry the puck a ton, and doesn’t often score from far out, but might be the most dangerous scorer in the league within five feet of the net. He’s well on his way to another 30 goal season this year, even while playing the fewest average minutes since he was 21. Expected to ask for something around $36MM over six years, there will be no shortage of teams looking to add him to their powerplay.

5. James Neal, F, Vegas Golden Knights — Before this season, free agency or even the expansion draft, we looked at Neal’s incomparable consistency and how he was headed for a big contract on the open market. He’s never recorded fewer than 21 goals in a season, and already has 18 this year. Obviously a huge part of what the Vegas Golden Knights have done to start their franchise history, they’ll try to retain him on a reasonable deal. If they can’t, he might just end up scoring 20 for his fifth organization in 2018-19.

6. Josh Bailey, F, New York Islanders — It’s not just Tavares that the Islanders have to worry about leaving this summer, but Bailey (and de Haan below) too. He and Anders Lee have formed the perfect wing pair for Tavares this season, and Bailey is going to blow his career-high in points—set only last season—out of the water just at the right time. He’s 28, has 50 points in 42 games and is a lethal powerplay setup man. Who doesn’t want to add that on the open market?

7. Mikael Backlund, C, Calgary Flames — Maybe underrated because of his personality and lack of flash on the ice, Backlund is nevertheless one of the most valuable assets available this summer. Soon to be 29, he’s coming off back-to-back 20-goal seasons and is a legitimate long-term center option. Centers with 50-point upside and responsible defensive ability don’t hit the market that often, and Backlund should be able to cash in because of it.

8. Paul Stastny, C, St. Louis Blues — Speaking of centers, Stastny is in good position to cash in on one last multi-year contract. The 32-year old is still logging big minutes for the St. Louis Blues, and though he may not be the 70-point man of his youth is still an effective weapon at both ends of the rink. A decline is coming, but with 33 points through 47 games this season including 20 even-strength assists, he will still be able to command an audience on the first day of free agency.

9. Calvin de Haan, D, New York Islanders — That’s right, the third Islanders player in the top 10 is de Haan, who has steadily developed into an excellent all-around defenseman. While he doesn’t have the offensive upside of Carlson, his youth—he’ll turn 27 in May—and ability to plug into a top-4 will still have teams knocking down his door. Our writers had him placed everywhere from #7 to #16, but no one disagrees he’ll have plenty of options on the open market.

10. Mike Green, D, Detroit Red Wings — There was a time, nearly a decade ago, when Green was the shining example of an offensive defenseman. Two years in a row, starting in 2009, he finished second in Norris voting behind a more well-rounded player—first to Duncan Keith, then Zdeno Chara—despite point totals in the seventies. In 2008-09 he even recorded 31 goals, the highest total from a defenseman since Kevin Hatcher in 1992-93, and unmatched in the years since. At 32 years old he won’t be putting up 70 point seasons anymore, but is still an excellent puck mover and can quarterback a powerplay. He’ll likely be one of the stars of the trade deadline and free agent day.

Central Notes: Jost, Girard, Wennberg, Schwartz, Stastny

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After a Friday report suggested 19-year-old center Tyson Jost of the Colorado Avalance might be allowed to play for Hockey Canada in the upcoming World Junior Championship in Buffalo in a few weeks, a new report from Mike Chambers of the Denver Post today suggests the opposite. In fact neither Jost nor defenseman Samuel Girard are likely to be allowed to leave Colorado.

The scribe writes that Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said he didn’t see that happening.

“It’s not up to me, but if it were I’d say no. They’re part of our team and we need them,” Bednar said.

Both Jost and Girard have said they have not spoken to Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic about playing in the under-20 tournament, which will start on Dec. 26. The tournament already has two top Colorado prospects in 2017 first-round pick Cale Makar and second-round pick Connor Timmons.

Jost and Girard both play with the Avalanche, although both players playing time have dropped recently. Jost plays on the “Kid Line” with Alexander Kerfoot and J.T. Compher and is still finding his way, while Girard has seen his time drop under 20 minutes after playing above that mark during his first eight games with the team.

“I’m just getting in my groove after being hurt so long,” Jost said. “I want to be here. Hockey Canada, whenever you can represent your country, it’s such an honor. I had my chance last year. Right now, honestly, I’m just focusing on playing on the Avs, focusing on earning the coach’s trust and put up numbers. Obviously, I haven’t been doing that and I’m trying not to get frustrated because I’m getting my chances and getting that opportunity. It will come. That’s what I’m focused on right now and just getting in this rhythm.”

  • Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News suggests that despite the Columbus Blue Jackets’ previous stance that they are looking for a top-line center, many within the organization now feel that last year’s third overall pick, Pierre-Luc Dubois, is starting to show that he might be that player they were looking for. Dubois has taken a step forward in his development and now is centering the team’s top line with Artemi Panarin and Josh Anderson. Richardson even suggests that with the emergence of Dubois, the team might consider moving center Alexander Wennberg, who is struggling a bit this season after a 59-point season a year ago, and might be better off getting a chance on a different team, while the team focus on other areas of need. The team might need to get a center back, but with Brandon Dubinsky currently playing on the second line, the team might have an asset they could live without.
  • Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that St. Louis Blues winger Jaden Schwartz, who left today’s game against the Detroit Red Wings after taking a shot off his right foot is considered day-to-day. Coach Mike Yeo said X-rays were negative and he will be re-examined when they return to St. Louis. Any time missed would be a huge loss for the Blues. The 25-year-old scored his 14th goal of the season before going down today.
  • Staying with the Blues, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) answers mailbag questions and writes that he doesn’t see the possibility of the NHL salary cap increasing potentially by $5MM as changing anything between negotiations between St. Louis and center Paul Stastny. Rutherford doesn’t believe that an increase in cap space will suddenly have general manager Doug Armstrong throwing money at Stastny. He believes the team has a set number in mind when it comes to Stastny and it will be up to him and his agent to decide if he wants to stay in St. Louis. The 31-year-old center hasn’t put up amazing numbers the last few years despite being paid $7MM AAV and will likely have to take a pay cut after his contract runs out at the end of the season. He currently has six goals and 20 points this season.

Blues Notes: Steen, Dunn, Thompson, Stastny

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Don’t be shocked if the St. Louis Blues put Alex Steen immediately onto the top line the moment he is healthy, which could be soon, according to The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford. Taking mailbag questions, the scribe writes that while most people, including himself, believed that Steen would come back to the team’s second line, the recent promotion of Samuel Blais might change things. The team believes that Blais might take off on the team’s second line. The 21-year-old prospect had a great preseason and started hot with the AHL’s San Antonio Rampage with three goals in two games. Rutherford believes that if Blais mixes in well with the second line, then the more likely option for Steen would be to move him to the first line with Vladimir Tarasenko and Paul Stastny. That would force Vladimir Sobotka to move down from the first line to the team’s third line, where the team has really struggled so far this year.

Steen, who scored 16 goals and 51 points a season ago broke his hand on Sept. 19 and is believed to be travelling with the team and close to returning to game action soon.

Other notes from Rutherford:

  • The scribe writes that when defenseman Jay Bouwmeester returns, the team may be in for a tough decision. Bouwmeester, who is recovering from a fractured ankle, could come back within the next week or two, will force the team to cut a defenseman. While Rutherford writes that rookie blueliner Vince Dunn has been impressive through five games, including scoring his first goal and putting up five shots in his last game and looking solid on defense. However, it is likely the team will send Dunn down rather than bench defenseman Carl Gunnarsson when Bouwmeester returns.
  • Rutherford adds that former 2016 first-rounder Tage Thompson’s demotion is probably a good thing. He writes that Thompson is being groomed to be a top-six forward, not a bottom-six forward, so his development is critical and more time in San Antonio makes more sense. The 19-year-old center, who was playing hockey for the University of Connecticut a year ago, has only 26 games of AHL experience (playoffs included). Despite being a big player, Rutherford writes he got pushed around quite a bit, which often happens to young, inexperienced players.
  • The scribe also writes that he believes that this could very likely be Stastny’s last year in St. Louis, unless the 31-year-old center is willing to take a pay cut to remain with the team. Stastny, who is in the final year of a four-year, $28MM deal, is currently making $7MM this season. Rutherford believes that while the team will likely keep their options open, the Blues will likely look at the free agent market first before deciding whether to re-sign Stastny. Stastny’s numbers have progressively been dropping over the last few years, with last year’s 40-point season being one of the lowest of his career. He is faring well so far with two goals and four assists in five games.

 

Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $72,569,167 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Robby Fabbri (One year remaining, $894K)
F Zachary Sanford (Two years remaining, $875K)
F Ivan Barbashev (Two years remaining, $742K)

Potential Bonuses

Fabbri: $425K
Barbashev: $183K
Sanford: $50K

Total: $658K

Much of the attention of the youth will fall on Fabbri, who many are hoping will have a breakout season this year. The former 2014 first-round pick has already played two full seasons with the club and combined for 29 goals, but many people feel this might be the year where he takes that next step. He looked to be having a solid year last year, but tore his ACL in February and missed the rest of the season. Now healthy, many believe the Blues will move him to center to take control of a top line.

Sanford and Barbashev are two youngsters who many feel may also take on regular roles in St. Louis this year. Sanford, a second-round pick in 2013 by the Washington Capitals, came to St. Louis in the Kevin Shattenkirk trade at the trade deadline last season. The 22-year-old joined the Blues for the final 13 games and scored two goals and five assists and many believe he should make a solid fourth-line center as he develops his game. Barbashev is a second-round pick from the 2014 draft and got a promotion for the season’s final 30 games. The 21-year-old picked up five goals and seven assists and showed that he deserves a chance to start, but may have to settle for a wing position to start the year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Paul Stastny ($7MM, UFA)
G Carter Hutton ($1.125MM, UFA)
D Joel Edmundson ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Dmitrij Jaskin ($1MM, RFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($950K, UFA)
F Magnus Paajarvi ($800K, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($675K, RFA)
F Beau Bennett ($650K, RFA)

Obviously the team has to make a decision on what it plans to do with Stastny as he’s the biggest name amongst the team’s pending free agents next season. Stastny has been a solid contributor at center, but hardly spectacular and is probably not worth the $7MM AAV that he has received from St. Louis when they signed him in 2014. Injuries have played a major role for the 31-year-old veteran as he has missed 42 games in three seasons. On top of that, he only took 112 shots, one of the lowest of his career and his 22 assists last year is his career low, not including the strike-shortened 2012-13 season. The team has put some effort into developing some of their youngsters at the center position, including Fabbri, Barbashev and Sanford likely in hopes of eventually finding a replacement for Stastny in the near future.

After Stastny, the talent level drops, but the team will have several restricted free agents who will be in line for more money next year. Edmundson, entering his third full year in the league, who has struggled with injuries in his two years. He played in 67 games in 2015-16 and just 69 games last year. He put up three goals and 12 assists last year, but should get more playing time with Shattenkirk gone and if he can stay healthy, should put up even better numbers. Sundqvist also came to St. Louis in a recent trade. Acquired from Pittsburgh in the Ryan Reaves trade, Sundqvist hopes to break camp with the Blues. He couldn’t crack the lineup in Pittsburgh, managing just 28 games over the past two years, but he did score 20 goals for the Penguins’ AHL squad this year. The center has a good chance to win a bottom six center position this year.

Jaskin has had trouble staying in the lineup for the Blues. The 24-year-old has been with the team now for four seasons, but has never been able to a steady contributor. He only managed to get into 51 games last year, for one goal and 10 assists. If he can’t put together a solid season, it may be his last in St. Louis. Bennett, who was signed as a free agent this summer, must prove he can make the team first. The 25-year-old wing scored eight goals in 65 games for the New Jersey Devils last year.

Among unrestricted free agents, the team may want to bring back Hutton, who has served the Blues well as their backup goaltender. The 31-year-old played 29 games and finished the year with a 2.39 GAA and a .913 save percentage. The 33-year-old Brodziak makes for a good fourth-line player, but this could likely be his last year in St. Louis, while Paajarvi split time between the Blues and the Chicago Wolves and also could be at the end of the line if he can’t make the team out of training camp.

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Inactive Blues Hoping For Different Results

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The St. Louis Blues were one of the most inactive teams this summer, right alongside the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks. With their relative success in a difficult Central division, it’s easy to understand why they didn’t make too many seismic transactions. Still, they had a moderate backslide in points last season despite making it to the second round. With only 99 points, they easily could have found themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The team’s only major move this off-season was trading Jori Lehtera for Brayden Schenn, by most accounts a trade they came out on top. Still, did the Blues need to be more aggressive?

The team has one of the most consistently underrated defensemen in Alex Pietrangelo, and Colton Parayko behind him is no slouch. After that, however, the pickings on defense are rather uninspiring. Jay Bouwmeester still logs substantial time on ice, with a 22:24 average, but there are signs his play is starting to slip. His last four seasons have been negative possession seasons (relative Corsi), and his offensive game has completely dried up. He only scored one goal to accompany his 14 assists last season. Furthermore, age is starting to catch up to him in terms of footspeed. He’ll be 35 this season, and that issue isn’t going to get any better in the years to come. Carl Gunnarsson only saw sheltered time last year, with just over 13 minutes a night against weaker competition. Robert Bortuzzo is a 6th defenseman at best and Joel Edmundson has work to round out his game if he wants to solidify himself as a top-four defender. Ultimately, the team needs defensive help, especially when the team will be up against the likes of the Blackhawks and Stars on a regular basis.

The offense is deep but undeniably overly reliant on Vladimir Tarasenko. Paul Stastny is looking nowhere near worth his contract, and Alex Steen has to slow down at some point in the near future. Jaden Schwartz is primed to have another solid 50+ point season, but if the bodies around him again struggle with consistency it could be an uphill endeavor. Robby Fabbri is another player to watch, as the former first-rounder looks to put together a solid, healthy campaign. The aforementioned addition of Schenn is valuable, but the team could arguably have done more to bring fresh blood in. The team is really banking on Vladimir Sobotka to prove his worth, but there is still the risk of him not producing. He’s never topped 10 goals in an NHL season, after all. Ivan Barbashev looks very promising, but he’s still somewhat of an unknown entity at this point. Ultimately, the team lacks a proven, go-to offensive threat behind Tarasenko Whereas other teams in the division have exceptional one-two punches, the Blues are still hoping to develop theirs fully.

There were available names this offseason to be had if GM Doug Armstrong was willing to make the moves. An Alexander Radulov, for example, would have done wonders to ease some of the pressure from Tarasenko. There are still names available, though, such as Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr up front. On defense, not much remains at this late date. A trade would really be the only sensible option. The team is still relatively undersized up front and overtaxes the top defenders. Cap space was undoubtedly an issue, as at $72.57 MM currently there was little room to maneuver. Still, moving out a larger contract like Stastny’s or Bouwmeester’s might have cleared room to add an important piece or two. The Blues lost Kevin Shattenkirk at the deadline, and it remains to be seen how his absence will affect the team over the course of a full year. The coaching staff behind Mike Yeo did phenomenal work to bring the team back into contention, but stagnation can often cost teams who are on the bubble. It will be interesting to see if Armstrong remains quiet this off-season, or opts for an additional move before the season’s start.

A Quiet 2017 Off-Season

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By the time August rolls around each year, it seems like the off-season is dragging on. The July 1st free agent frenzy is long behind us and it’s been weeks since the last major signing. Fans are struggling to get their hockey fill and counting the days until the puck drops on preseason hockey. In 2017, fans have all the more reason to be sick of the off-season. When compared with the summer of 2016, this off-season has simply been boring. It was expected to be as such, but no one could have predicted just how quiet this summer could be.

As of today, August 6th, 2017, there have only been two unrestricted free agents signed to contracts worth more than $6MM per year: Kevin Shattenkirk to the New York Rangers (as predicted) and Alexander Radulov to the Dallas Stars. In contrast, there were four such deals signed on July 1st, 2016 alone. Drop that mark down to contracts worth more than $4MM annually, and you get uninspiring names this year like Evgeni Dadonov, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bonino, Karl Alzner, Martin Hanzal, and Steve Mason added to the list; hardly a superstar among them. 2016 saw high-profile players like Milan Lucic, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Kyle Okposo, and Andrew Ladd all find new homes. Those signings came on the heels of the P.K. Subban – Shea Weber and Taylor Hall – Adam Larsson trades as well. The best swaps 2017 has to offer so far are Travis Hamonic or Marcus Johansson being dealt for draft picks. There have simply been a lack of franchise-altering moves made this summer.

Then you have the timeline of when deals got done. By August last year, the best unsigned free agents were Antoine Vermette, Jiri Hudler, and Jhonas Enroth. The year before, Cody Franson and David Schlemko highlighted the August market. In both cases, NHL teams got their deals done in July, filling the month with exciting signing news. This year? Not so much. Legendary players like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, and Shane Doan remain available, alongside other able-bodied contributors like Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Daniel Winnik. That’s in addition to Franson and Hudler as well. Teams are simply waiting around on this market for reasons unknown. Could it end up as an exciting run of signing in August? Maybe, but don’t count on it.

The weak 2017 free agent market coupled with the challenge of preparing for June’s Expansion Draft has simply resulted in one of quietest off-seasons in recent memory. Several teams still have needs and spots to fill and signings and trades remain possible, but at this point the summer is a lost cause. Time to look forward to next season and even next summer when we *hope* to see the likes of John Tavares, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, James Neal, James van Riemsdyk, Paul Stastny, Mikko Koivu, Cam Atkinson, Jonathan Marchessault, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Mike Green, Jack Johnson, Calvin de Haan, and Antti Raanta all hit the open market. Hopefully that list is enough excitement to get you through the rest of this one.

Blues Snapshots: Steen, Parayko, AHL, Fabbri

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Don’t be surprised if the St. Louis Blues move on from Alex Steen, eventually. While St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jim Rutherford answered questions on the newspaper’s website, he added that while he’d be surprised to see Steen moved at this point in the offseason, he wouldn’t be shocked if the Blues were to look into trading him at the trade deadline next year or in the offseason.

The 33-year-old Steen’s new contract that he signed last offseason will be kicking in this year. He signed a four-year, $23MM contract and while his production has been consistently solid over the last couple of years (33 goals and 70 assists combined in last two years), the veteran is suddenly beginning to get in the way of the Blues massing core of young wingers, including Vladimir Tarasenko (25), Jaden Schwartz (25), Dmitrij Jaskin (24), Robby Fabbri (21 — although he could move to center next season — see below), Oskar Sundqvist (23) and Beau Bennett (25).

Rutherford adds the team still needs a veteran like Steen to provide the leadership to the youth, but there will be a point in which the team will be confident in its young wingers that it’s unlikely he’ll finish out his contract in St. Louis.

  • In the same piece, Rutherford writes that he expects young defenseman Colton Parayko to step up this season for the Blues and become the star defenseman they were hoping for. While his goals scored dropped from nine to four last year, his points still went up, finishing with 35 points compared to 33 two years ago. The scribe writes that with Kevin Shattenkirk finally gone, Parayko should be able to raise his scoring numbers and develop into a No. 1 defenseman.
  • Rutherford also writes that with the team agreeing to AHL agreements with the Chicago Wolves (Vegas’ affiliate) and the San Antonio Rampage (Colorado’s affiliate), the team will send prospects to either team, but are likely to have little say about playing time for their prospects. Both Vegas and Colorado will be putting a priority on their own prospects, leaving any Blues prospects to force their way into playing time.
  • Former 2014 first-rounder Fabbri is currently penciled in as the team’s third-line center behind Paul Stastny and new acquisition Brayden Schenn. However, if they feel he is ready to put up a big season, Rutherford writes that it is likely he’ll be moved up to be a wing on the second line and force Steen to move to the right side.

 

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The St. Louis Blues did pretty well for themselves at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they swapped Kevin Shattenkirk for a package including prospect Zach Sanford and a first-round pick only to make just as far in the postseason as the Washington Capitals, the conference semifinals. Not only did they get value for an impending free agent, but they also acquired pieces that didn’t effect the expansions process, while additionally simplifying their decision on defense. Armed with a large core of forwards in their prime and the likes of Sanford and other ready to replace any potential losses up front to lower-tier players, the Blues are in pretty good shape heading into the Expansion Draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Jordan Caron, Ty Rattie

Defense
Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo, Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm

Goaltender
Jake Allen, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington

Notable Exemptions

Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Schmaltz

Key Decisions

Not many decisions to be made for St. Louis. In net, Jake Allen is the present and future and is a lock for protection. On defense, captain Alex Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester make up one of the top pairs in the league and are signed long-term. They’re not going anywhere. With young stalwart Colton Parayko exempt, his equally youthful pair Joel Edmundson, who is fresh off a strong sophomore campaign, is an easy choice for the third and final defensive spot.

Where things get a little less clear is at forward. Superstar Vladimir Tarasenko, line mate Jaden Schwartz, and long-time Blues Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund, both of whom signed extensions this past season, are all as good as protected. After returning to St. Louis and having an outstanding season, David Perron is also likely safe, as is veteran leader Paul Stastny. Barring an unexpected decision regarding any of those six players, that leaves just one forward spot left. Heading into the 2016-17 season, that core also included center Jori Lehtera. However, the 29-year-old played in just 64 games this season scoring only 22 points, a major drop-off from the year before and a second straight season with steep decline. The salary cap-strapped Blues might not mind losing Lehtera and his two remaining seasons with a $4.7MM cap hit. After all, St. Louis did push to bring Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL, a task they finally accomplished toward the end of the season, and Sobotka rewarded them with six points in 11 playoff games. It would certainly be strange to work so hard to bring the two-way ace back from Russia just to lose him to the Golden Knights for nothing. However, there are a handful of young players that St. Louis will have to consider as well, namely Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nail Yakupov. Paajarvi has been in the NHL for seven years, but is still just 25. He’s never been able to carve out a full-time role with the Blue and Gold, but perhaps the team sees something in him. The homegrown Jaskin has also struggled to be a regular player for the Blues, but has certainly shown upside from time to time and only recently turned 24. Lastly, Yakupov, a former #1 overall pick, was acquired just last off-season from the Edmonton Oilers, but was never given a real role in St. Louis this year. Yakupov has a ton of potential, but the Blues are chasing a championship and may not be concerned with waiting around to see if he pans out at the cost of a true contributor.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz
Alexander Steen
David Perron
Paul Stastny
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka

Defensemen

Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester
Joel Edmundson

Goalie

Jake Allen

It would simply be too strange to let a valuable, versatile player like Sobotka go after just re-gaining his talents. Vegas GM George McPhee would surely jump at the opportunity to add a player with Sobotka’s skills to his new team. There is less certainty surrounding a player on the decline in Lehtera or unproven commodities like Paajarvi, Jaskin, or Yakupov. For the Knights though, certainty is a luxury they can’t afford, as they will surely pick up several project players. Lehtera could provide some veteran leadership and solid player down the middle, but it seems more likely that talented player in need of more opportunity, like Jaskin or Yakupov, would be the choice. St. Louis will also expose two dependable veteran defenseman in Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo, both signed to reasonable contracts through 2018-19, but the Knights will see a lot of good defenseman in the draft and neither player really jumps out. Expect the pick to be a project forward, whose loss may not impact the Blues much, but could pay off well for Vegas.

Central Notes: Nashville’s “Red Rover” Trap, Sakic, Stastny

at CDT | by 2 Comments

As the Chicago Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers, a number of quotes were mined from various reporters. One of the more interesting ones, reported by several outlets, was one from Patrick Kane regarding the key to Nashville’s dominance during the four game sweep. From the Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus, we all learn that Chicago bench boss Joel Quenneville nicknamed the Nashville trap “Red Rover” and Patrick Kane doesn’t think it’s the greatest thing for hockey fans:

“A team like that, you kind of hope they don’t win, because I don’t know if that’s necessarily the best way to watch hockey games, and to actually have that excitement level,” Kane said. “But on the other [hand], they played good going the other way, too. They kind of sat back, but their transition game is fast, and they played with a lot of speed the other way. That gave us problems.”

Though the first part of the quote might sound like sour grapes, Kane was quick to give credit to a team that stifled Chicago’s scoring opportunities, limiting them to just three goals in four games. Winger Marian Hossa attributed the dump and chase game Chicago was forced to play as a major reason they lost–they never got comfortable.

  • The Denver Post’s Mark Kiszla thinks Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic would be foolish for not chasing after University of Denver coach Jim Montgomery. Kiszla writes that Montgomery has built Denver into a powerhouse and would be the perfect addition to a team with young players and in the midst of a massive rebuilding project. Since Florida has Montgomery lined up for an interview, Kiszla wonders if it would behoove Sakic to do whatever it takes to keep the national championship winning coach in the state. Current coach Jared Bednar, he writes, shouldn’t be retained only out of pity. Montgomery is the “real deal” according to Kiszla and should be strongly considered if the Avs are truly looking to improve their fortunes.
  • The Blues got a huge addition before their game with Minnesota when Paul Stastny returned to action for a crucial game five tilt writes Sportsnet’s Josh Gold-Smith. The Blues have a chance to take out the Wild in five games and rest for the next round.  Stastny was slotted in with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jayden Schwartz. As of the writing, Stastny was on the ice for Tarasenko’s opening goal.

Snapshots: Krejci, Stevens, Stastny

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Boston’s David Krejci suffered an injury after a knee-on-knee collision with Ottawa’s Chris Wideman. He will not return to the game. There was no call on the ice, although the play easily could have drawn an infraction. The play can be viewed here. Krejci could not put much weight on his leg and looked pained as he left the ice. The Bruin had just returned from a previous, unrelated injury, and was slotted in as the 2nd line center between wingers Drew Stafford and David Backes. Krejci had tallied 54 points in the full 82 games this past season. His team is fighting to stave off elimination at the hands of the Senators, trailing 3-1 in the series. Regardless of the result of the game, there is the possibility for review for Wideman by the Department of Player Safety, especially in light of an equally scary Kadri-on-Ovechkin hit just minutes earlier in the other contest.

  • The Los Angeles Kings are reportedly close to an agreement to hire John Stevens as their new head coach. As noted by colleague Gavin Lee earlier this month, his son, captain of Northwestern (also John Stevens), has drawn interest from management. Stevens (the senior) started out his head coaching career with 6 seasons for the AHL’s Philadelphia Phantoms, culminating in a Calder Cup win in 2004-05 – a season which drew lots of interest due to the NHL lockout of that year. Stevens was promoted to head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers after the following season, serving until he was fired midway through the 2009-10 campaign. Following his firing, that Flyers team then went on to make the Finals after just barely making the post-season under Peter Laviolette. Stevens earned two Stanley Cup rings as assistant coach to Darryl Sutter during the Kings’ championship runs of 2012 and 2014, after his brief (4-game) stint as interim coach for the franchise. Stevens is known for his endearing “players’ coach” personality and rapport with developing younger players. He has an all-time record of 122-111-34 as a head NHL bench boss.
  • Help is apparently on the way for the St. Louis Blues, who still hold a commanding 3-1 lead in their series with the Minnesota Wild. Both Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera look probable to return to competition in Game 5. Stastny has been out of action since he took a shot from a teammate off the foot a month ago. Lehtera has been out with an apparent illness since April 8th. Stastny potted 40 points in his limited 66 games this season, while Lehtera was less impressive with 22 in 64 games. Both centers will provide depth up the middle for St. Louis, and assistance on faceoffs. Considering how proficient Jake Allen has been so far these playoffs, their contributions on the defensive side of the puck will only make Minnesota’s offensive efforts even tougher. Both players posted average Corsi For just above the mid-line 50%, but each boasts a wealth of playoff experience that is difficult to replace this time of year. Stastny’s post-season consistency in particular should inspire confidence in his ability to contribute to his squad. Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford are expected to sit out.

*The original post had incorrectly cited Dennis Wideman as the offender*

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