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Poll: How Many Top 50 Free Agents Will Opt For Retirement?

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A week into free agency, the vast majority of PHR’s Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents are under contract. Unsurprisingly, many of those left unsigned are on the wrong side of 30 or even at or approaching 40. Veterans tend to be later additions in free agency, as teams aren’t rushing to sign them to long-term deals to be core pieces, but rather seek to use them to plug holes in the lineup after the fact. As of now, there are nine names in the Top 50 that are legitimate candidates for retirement. Some have offers on the table and are taking their time to make a decision, while other may not have much of a market and could have to choose between a PTO or calling it a career. How many will choose retirement this summer?

Justin Williams, 37, enjoyed a tremendous 53-point season with the Carolina Hurricanes this past season and looked far from done. GM Don Waddell hinted that the captain will return next season, but until pen meets paper it remains a question mark. Williams was a key piece of the Hurricanes’ run to the Eastern Conference Final last season and would be a major loss for the team. However, he could opt to go out on top as a player who has seen very little drop-off in production through his 30’s and hit his highest point total since 2011-12 last season. Williams can still play, but the question is whether he wants to.

Joe Thornton, 40, not only wants to play next season, but wants to play several more years. The future Hall of Famer has already had an illustrious career, but has yet to win that elusive Stanley Cup. Thornton would like to return to the San Jose Sharks, one of only two teams he’s played for in his 21-year career, and the Sharks should be able to find the space to bring him back after moving out salary via trade and free agency departures. However, Thornton’s asking price will play a part – he did top 50 points again last season – as will the Sharks’ interest in bringing back another retirement threat. Patrick Marleau, 39, left San Jose two years ago to join the Toronto Maple Leafs, but has since been bought out and all signs point to a desire to return to the Sharks. These two legendary Sharks are both capable of continuing their NHL careers, but can San Jose fit them both and are either willing to sign elsewhere at this point in their careers?

Brian Boyle, 34, enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2018-19 and netted a second-round pick at the trade deadline. He clearly still has value as a big, smart two-way forward, but the lack of attention he has garnered thus far in free agency is curious. Boyle did not make as much of an impact in Nashville post-trade as he did in New Jersey and teams may be skeptical of his production moving forward. Between a cold market and recent health concerns, Boyle may be considering calling it a career while he’s still considered an elite defensive forward. However, it would be a surprise if there isn’t a team in the NHL who could still use Boyle’s ability.

Dion Phaneuf, 34, is fresh off of a buyout and should be available at a bargain rate as he continues to cash paychecks from the Los Angeles Kings. Phaneuf stated earlier this off-season that he would be happy to land with a contender, but is also open to taking on a mentor role with a young team. That would seemingly make him a candidate to join a number of D-needy teams. Yet, a week into free agency there has been almost no noise surrounding Phaneuf. The veteran still plays a strong checking game, but his offense and mobility fell off a cliff last season, resulting in drastic career lows in production and ice time. Teams may be hesitant to invest at his current asking price. Phaneuf may be looking at a decision between a short-term, minimum deal or walking away.

Ben Lovejoy, 35, is also coming off an uninspiring season. The Dallas Stars still felt he was worth a deadline gamble, but Lovejoy failed to make much of an impact offensively with either the Stars or Devils pre-trade. An experienced journeyman defenseman, Lovejoy still plays a strong defensive game and has great awareness in his own zone. However, when it comes to moving the puck he can be prone to turnovers and when asked to contribute offensively, he offers little. At this point in his career, Lovejoy is an ideal No. 7 or 8 defenseman. However, does he want to continue his playing career only to be used sparingly as a depth player? That’s the question.

Thomas Vanek, 35, is a tricky case. While his 36 points this season marked a career low, it also came in just 64 games and was one of the top marks for the Detroit Red Wings. Vanek has been a tough player to get a read on in recent years because he has moved around so much and played in a variety of roles. The eye test, combined with a plethora of rumors so far this summer, suggest that he can keep playing. But does a decorated veteran really want to continue being a hired gun and deadline deal year after year? If Vanek can find some security in a short-term contract, he will stick around in the NHL and likely continue to be a great value as a player capable of 50 points. However, the respected veteran may also be ready to call it a career if the right fit doesn’t exist.

Niklas Kronwall, 38, and Deryk Engelland, 37, are both in the same boat. They will either return to their current teams – the Red Wings and Golden Knights respectively – or they’ll retire. Neither is looking to move at this point in their careers, nor can they command salaries that their teams cannot pay. Instead, the duo are both valued for their leadership and loyalty and can still play well enough in a regular role or, more likely, thrive in a depth role. The question for both is simply how much they have left in the tank and whether it’s time to quit while they’re ahead.

So what do you think? Nine players, all with good reason to retire but also to keep playing, with various market factors at work. How many suit up in the NHL next season and how many make a final announcement in the coming weeks?

Evening Notes: Sharks Lineup, Gaudette, Johansson

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The San Jose Sharks had to cast off a number of forwards this offseason after they inked star defenseman Erik Karlsson to an eight-year, $92MM contract three weeks ago. The team let Joe Pavelski and Joonas Donskoi off and there continue to be rumors that they may have to trade off Melker Karlsson later on this summer to free up more cap room.

Of course, San Jose is expected to re-sign Joe Thornton and are likely to also bring back Patrick Marleau. Yet, despite those signings, there are likely going to be some holes in their lineup. In fact, The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that there could be a major change in the top-six. The scribe writes that San Jose might look to its prospect depth to fill one of the wing positions on the second line this season as Sasha Chmelevski and Ivan Chekovich could be the beneficiaries of that job.

Chmelevski, a sixth-round gem found in the 2017 draft, has scored 70 goals and 151 points in the past two seasons with the Ottawa 67s of the OHL. Chekovich, a seventh-round stud picked up in the 2017 draft as well, scored 43 goals and 105 points last season in the QMJHL, but also gotten some time in the AHL with three goals and seven points in nine AHL games. Kurz writes that the only way they would make the team is if one of them played on the second line. A spot on the bottom-six would make less sense, however, as they could get valuable minutes with the San Jose Barracuda instead.

  • The Vancouver Canucks have been quite active this offseason and have added quite a bit of depth to their team. However, Patrick Johnson of the Vancouver Sun writes that the team will have a significant roster jam at the forward position this fall. The team currently has 13 healthy forwards under NHL deals and still have to sign Nikolay Goldobin and Brock Boeser to deals. Throw in the injured Antoine Roussel, the team has a lot of forwards with only 12 spots. That could put the spot of Adam Gaudette, who many people feel deserves a spot as the team’s third-line center, in jeopardy as the 22-year-old is the only player on the team (minus Elias Pettersson and Boeser) who can be sent down without having to pass through waivers. Unless Gaudette can have a dominant camp and beat out some of the others like Brandon Sutter, he could find himself starting the year off in Utica of the AHL.
  • The two-year deal that winger Marcus Johansson signed Saturday with the Buffalo Sabres includes a modified no-trade clause, according to CapFriendly. Johansson has the ability to provide Buffalo with a list of 10 teams he cannot be traded to during both his seasons. That’s an improvement on his previous deal where for the past two years he could submit five teams he couldn’t be traded to.

Carolina Hurricanes Buy Out Patrick Marleau

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4:00pm: The buyout is official.

11:41am: Even though the Carolina Hurricanes hoped to convince Patrick Marleau to stick around after arriving in a trade from the Toronto Maple Leafs, the expected buyout is going to move forward. Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer reports that GM Don Waddell admitted as much today, noting that the team will have to pay a $3MM signing bonus right away and then the remaining $833,333 split over the next two seasons. Since Marleau is on a 35+ deal however, the Hurricanes will not receive any cap relief and will continue to have his $6.25MM hit on the books for this season. A buyout will make Marleau an unrestricted free agent and a return to the San Jose Sharks is possible.

Thanks to his no-movement clause, Marleau will also not require waivers for a buyout. The 39-year old forward was acquired by the Hurricanes on Saturday along with a package that included a conditional first-round pick in a straight salary dump by the Maple Leafs. Toronto desperately needed some cap room to help them re-sign their trio of restricted free agents, and Marleau seemed ready to leave the organization and return to the west coast with his family.

One of the NHL’s true iron men, Marleau has now gone ten straight seasons without missing a single game and has played in at least 74 games every year of his career (save for the lockout-shortened 2012-13 where he played in all 48). During that career he has amassed 551 goals and 1,166 points in 1,657 games, putting him among the all-time leaders in each category. Unfortunately, he is still chasing that elusive Stanley Cup and has only even made it to the Stanley Cup Final on one occasion. His hope that a move to Toronto in 2017 would give him that opportunity fizzled when the Maple Leafs were ousted two years in a row by the Boston Bruins in the first round.

As his Cup dreams dwindled in Toronto, so did his play as Marleau recorded his worst goal-scoring season since his rookie year in 1997-98. With just 16 goals and 37 points he was no longer worth the $6.25MM hit for the Maple Leafs, who are trying to find a way to surround Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner with enough talent to go on a deep playoff run.

Wherever he signs (if he does at all), Marleau could potentially play for the league minimum of $700K given he is already earning nearly $3.5MM for this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Atlantic Notes: Backes, Kronwall, Reinhart, Zaitsev

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With the NHL salary cap set Saturday at $81.5MM for the 2019-20 season, cap room has become a premium. That became just as apparent Saturday when teams began unloading some of their expensive contracts, including Nashville’s P.K. Subban (to New Jersey), Tampa Bay’s J.T. Miller (to Vancouver) and Toronto’s Patrick Marleau (to Carolina). The latter trade of Marleau to the Hurricanes perhaps was the most interesting as Toronto also had to fork over a 2020 first-round pick as part of the package to unload Marleau’s $6.25MM contract.

That deal may become a precedent for teams hoping to move out a bad contract. In fact, because of that trade, The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa (subscription required) suggests that the Boston Bruins will likely have to keep forward David Backes on the roster for at least another year. The Bruins still owe $6MM to the 35-year-old Backes for another two seasons, which isn’t helping the team as they must re-sign a number of key free agents, including restricted free agents Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Danton Heinen and also wouldn’t mind keeping unrestricted free agents Marcus Johansson and Noel Acciari. Backes has struggled the last couple of seasons, but his numbers really fell off this season as he posted just seven goals and 20 points in 70 games and has fallen into a bottom-six role.

While the team wouldn’t mind unloading that contract, Shinzawa writes that the Marleau deal, which has a similar number to Backes’ contract, except for one more year, would almost guarantee cost the Bruins a first-round pick (and possibly more) to unload, which they are unlikely willing to do.

  • The Detroit Free-Press’ Helene St. James reports that the Detroit Red Wings and general manager Steve Yzerman won’t change their offseason plan as they wait for defenseman Niklas Kronwall to make a decision on whether he wants to return for a 16th season. The veteran may not make a decision until late in the offseason. One reason to suggest that the 38-year-old could return is that he is 47 games shy of having played 1,000 games. The long-time Red Wings blueliner still fared well last year, scoring three goals and 27 points in 79 games.
  • The Athletic’s John Vogl writes that while the Buffalo Sabres need a second-line center to give Casey Mittelstadt time to adjust to the NHL, general manager Jason Botterill said that it is unlikely that Sam Reinhart will be moving there. Reinhart, originally drafted as a center when he was the second-overall pick in 2014, saw his career take off when the team moved him to the right wing position two seasons ago. Since then, he’s tallied 47 goals in those two years. “Look, it’s always a possibility there,” said Botterill. “You have to be open to it and we’ll see how things go with Ralph (Krueger) with that discussion, but I also think in the last year or so, he’s excelled on the wing and I think he’s in a position where he can drive a line from the wing.”
  • The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel reports that Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas said Saturday that there is nothing new on the trade front when it comes to moving defenseman Nikita Zaitsev. The team has made it clear to other teams they aren’t just going to use him as a salary dump. “We’re willing to try to accommodate him and work with him, but we need a similar player back,” Dubas said. “We don’t have the depth on D and we don’t want to rush our prospects.”

Toronto Maple Leafs Closing In On Extension With Andreas Johnsson

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Sunday: The Toronto Sun’s Terry Korshan reports that Dubas confirmed the Johnsson contract is nearly done. “They’re right at the finish line, we just have to punch them across, which will be nice,” said Dubas (via The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel).

Saturday: With news of the Toronto Maple Leafs closing in on a contract with restricted free agent forward Kasperi Kapanen, TSN’s Darren Dreger now reports that the Maple Leafs are also close to signing restricted free agent forward Andreas Johnsson to a four-year extension somewhere between $3.25MM and $3.5MM.

While the team has a number of issues to deal with, namely trying to work on a long-term deal with restricted free agent Mitch Marner, the team seems to be proactive in working out deals with both Kapanen and Johnsson, both who have proven to be key top-six wingers for the team this season. After two successful seasons with the Toronto Marlies, the 24-year-old broke out with a 20-goal, 43-point season this year. There also was plenty of discussion that both Johnsson and Kapanen could be prime candidates for other teams to sign to offer sheets, but it looks like both players were more interested in staying in the fold in Toronto.

With cap room being a significant issue, there was plenty of talk that Johnsson or Kapanen could be used as trade bait to eventually send off some cap room. However, the Maple Leafs did free up some of that cap room when they traded away Patrick Marleau and his $6.25MM contract to Carolina earlier today and instead of one of their young restricted free agents, sent a condictional first-rounder to Carolina instead. With Marleau’s contract off the books, that money can now be used to sign both Kapanen and Johnsson, although both deals could be held up until they can sign Marner. The team still will likely have to move other contracts with rumors suggesting the team is considering shipping out forwards Connor Brown and possibly even center Nazem Kadri, in order to get all three under contract and that doesn’t even factor the team’s hope they can still sign unrestricted free agent defenseman Jake Gardiner to an extension.

NHL Sets Salary Cap at $81.5MM for 2019-20

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The NHL and NHLPA have made it official, as TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the NHL salary cap for 2019-20 will be $81.5MM, as many had recently projected with the salary floor being set at $60.2MM.

That isn’t good news for teams that are at or near the cap as many teams had hoped that the cap might be closer to $83MM like it was projected several weeks ago. However, recently rumors had been rumbling that the number would be closer to $82MM and potentially as low as $81.5MM, which is what it ended up being, which is a worst-case scenario for teams hoping for that extra space to maneuver.

That could prompt more teams that need to open up cap space to make cost-cutting moves. The league has seen some of that already today with the Nashville Predators unloading the $9MM contract of defenseman P.K. Subban in order to free up space to extend defenseman Roman Josi and potentially sign a free-agent center such as Matt Duchene in the coming week. The Toronto Maple Leafs sent a future first-rounder to Carolina also today in order to unload the final year of Patrick Marleau and his $6.25MM contract. The Tampa Bay Lightning also unloaded J.T. Miller’s $5.25MM contract that still has four more years on it for a future first-rounder as well. Other teams that are in trouble and could be making similar cap-saving moves include the Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.

The announcement, however, could be big news for teams with plenty of cap space to sell. The Devils acquired a top-four defenseman for a very little return, while Vancouver added a top-six forward in Miller. There are six teams underneath the ceiling of $60.2MM, including the Philadelphia Flyers, Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators and the Colorado Avalanche. Several of those team have significant free agents to sign, however, including Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Colorado, but there are many teams that could take advantage, now more than ever, of some of the teams who have already capped themselves out. In fact, Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen was thrilled at the cap number.

“It doesn’t affect us. I like it,” Kekalainen said (via NHL.com’s Dan Rosen). “It’s going to squeeze some teams some more. … They’re going to have to solve their problems and maybe we can be a solution.”

Metropolitan Notes: Lee, Aho, Marleau, Subban, Provorov

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Talks continue to be ongoing, but so far there has been no contract agreement between the New York Islanders and their captain Anders Lee. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that he saw Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello and Lee’s agent, Neil Sheehy were having a lengthy discussion during the draft Saturday. However, with unrestricted free agents being allowed to talk to other teams Sunday, a potential deal could be even more challenging.

In fact, Newsday’s Brian Heyman reports that he spoke to Lee, who remarked that the two sides haven’t reached an agreement yet.

“I never thought it would get to this point, but I guess it’s the nature of what this week means,” Lee said.

Lee said his first choice is to remain with the Islanders, but the belief is that the two sides remain far apart when it comes to term with New York likely wanting to avoid giving the veteran too long of a contract considering he’s already 28 and the team may not want to pay big into his mid-30’s.

  • Carolina Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell said that he had a “great discussion” yesterday with Sebastian Aho’s representation, according to NHL.com’s Michael Smith. The 21-year-old forward will be a restricted free agent on July 1 and the team hopes to lock Aho to a long-term deal now. He scored 30 goals and 83 points last season, both career highs and continually has shown improvement every year. “I think things are going to move along. … The good thing is I don’t think we’re terribly far apart. They want to get a deal done as much as we want to get a deal done.”
  • Smith also tweets that Waddell was thrilled to walk away from the Patrick Marleau deal with a future first-round pick and said that while the rumors suggest that Carolina intends to buyout Marleau, Waddell said they intend to talk to Marleau and see if he is interested in staying with Carolina. “For us, when you can pick up assets like that, like a 1st round pick, that’s important for the future. The plan would be to meet with Patrick, talk with him and see where he’s at. If he wanted to be a Hurricane, we’d certainly love to have him.”
  • Before trading for P.K. Subban earlier today, New Jersey Devils general manager Ray Shero said he spoke to both Taylor Hall and former Devil Brian Boyle about Subban before pulling the trigger on the deal, according to NHL.com’s Amanda Stein. Subban, who possesses a powerful personality, wanted to make sure that Subban would be a good fit as well as making sure that Hall approved of the deal, considering the Devils must convince their star player to re-sign at some point. NHL.com’s Dan Rosen also confirmed from Shero that the Nashville Predators did not retain any salaries as part of the deal.
  • Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi reports that the Philadelphia Flyers haven’t gotten very far yet with restricted free agent defenseman Ivan Provorov. General manager Chuck Fletcher said that progress with Provorov is slow because the team is waiting for the market to set before signing him. However, Fletcher did admit the team is much closer to signing restricted free agent Travis Sanheim and Scott Laughton.

 

Vancouver Canucks Acquire Tampa Bay’s J.T. Miller

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With salary dumps starting off the day after both Patrick Marleau and P.K. Subban were traded earlier, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the Vancouver Canucks are closing in on a deal to acquire forward J.T. Miller and the four years remaining at $5.25MM from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Vancouver trades goaltender Marek Mazanec, a 2019 third-round pick (goaltender Hugo Alnefelt) and a conditional first-round pick in 2020, reports NHL.com’s Dan Rosen. If the Canucks do not make the playoffs, the 2020 first-rounder will be conveyed in 2021.

With plenty of salary cap issues, the Tampa Bay Lightning had to move out some salary, especially with restricted Brayden Point expected to get a big raise this summer. Miller seemed to make the most sense as the forward struggled last season in his first full year with the Lightning. After posting more than 20 goals for three straight years, Miller saw his goal-scoring numbers drop to just 13 last season. With a no-trade clause kicking in on July 1, the team had to make a move sooner rather than later.

For Vancouver, Miller should provide some much needed offense as Miller can play all three positions and still is just 26 years old and should find a role somewhere in the team’s top six. If he continues to struggle like he did last year, he could always take over the third-line center duties. The Canucks have the cap space to take in the deal, but Miller’s four year’s at $5.25MM is pretty reasonable had the team tried to land a player of Miller’s success on the free-agent market.

It wasn’t a long stay for Miller, who the team acquired as part of the Ryan McDonagh trade back at the trade deadline in 2018. He looked sharp for the team’s stretch run that year, tallying 10 goals and 18 points in 19 games. The team then signed him to a five-year, $26.25MM contract last offseason, but now decided to move on from him. The team got solid value for him as they expect to get either the team’s 2020 first-rounder (assuming the Canucks make the playoffs) or the team’s 2021 first-rounder. They also added a third-round pick in this year’s draft, while also getting Mazanec. While it looks like it would fill their hole in the net in Syracuse, the team only picked up Mazanec’s rights as he has already signed a contract in the Czech League for two years. The team already lost both of Syracuse’s goaltenders from last year as Eddie Pasquale has already signed with Barys Nur-Sultan in the KHL, while they traded Connor Ingram to Tampa Bay for a future seventh-round pick.

Patrick Marleau Traded To Carolina Hurricanes

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have completed a deal that seemed impossible just a few days ago, trading Patrick Marleau to the Carolina Hurricanes. Toronto will also send a conditional 2020 first-round selection and a 2020 seventh-round selection and will receive a 2020 sixth-round pick in return. If the first-round pick is a top-10 selection, the Hurricanes will instead receive a first-round pick in 2021.

Marleau is expected to be bought out by the Hurricanes to become an unrestricted free agent. A buyout will not result in any cap savings for the Hurricanes given Marleau signed his current contract after the age of 35, meaning his entire $6.25MM hit will be applied to their books.

The Maple Leafs were desperate to clear some salary this summer thanks to ongoing negotiations with restricted free agents Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, and Marleau’s name has been in trade speculation for weeks. GM Kyle Dubas had recently said however that it seemed likely the veteran forward would start the year in Toronto, meaning this deal very well could have come together quickly at the draft in Vancouver. A first round pick is a steep price to pay, but the Maple Leafs will gain a huge amount of cap space in a season where they believe they can compete for the Stanley Cup.

Marleau, 39, just finished his worst offensive season since his rookie year back in 1997-98, but still recorded 16 goals and 37 points for the Maple Leafs. While not good enough to fill those $6.25MM shoes, he still does have a few playing days left in him if he chooses. Though that could technically take him back to Toronto as the Washington Capitals proved with Brooks Orpik last year, Marleau commandeered his wife’s twitter account to issue a goodbye to the organization and Maple Leafs’ fans. It seems more likely that he is heading back to California and perhaps the San Jose Sharks, though the Hurricanes intend on having a conversation to see if he would be willing to play for them first.

The veteran forward hasn’t missed a single game in the last ten seasons and has suited up 1,657 times in the NHL regular season. His 1,166 career points put him 53rd on the all-time list, only behind Joe Thornton, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin in terms of active players.

Morning Notes: Perry, Marleau, Senators

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After being bought out earlier this week, former Anaheim Ducks superstar Corey Perry now has his choice of landing spot for the 2019-20 season. Though he may not be worth the $8.625MM cap hit he carried for Anaheim, there will likely be teams willing to bet on his history as a perennial 30+ goal scorer and give him a short-term deal. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) reports that several have already shown interest, and links the Nashville Predators and Chicago Blackhawks to the veteran forward.

Perry is actually eligible for a one-year bonus-laden contract despite being only 34, thanks to his injury from last season. That could be a perfect way to mitigate risk for an acquiring team while providing Perry with an opportunity to make back some of the money he lost from the buyout.

  • Patrick Marleau seemed destined for a new team just a few weeks ago, but Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas told reporters yesterday that there is a “strong chance” the veteran remains for at least the start of the season. The Maple Leafs could desperately use the cap space a Marleau trade would create, but are obviously limited by his full no-movement clause. Marleau is due a $3MM signing bonus this season, but Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported last month that it is paid out in two installments—July and December. It is expected that the forward only wants to return to California, where his family has returned to their San Jose home.
  • The Ottawa Senators could be a landing spot for several veterans on expensive deals, as Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia writes that five or six teams have spoken with GM Pierre Dorion about sending bad contracts the the Canadian capital. With the Senators embracing their rebuild with an extremely low salary base, the team could welcome expensive veterans along with a “sweetener” in order to provide some leadership for their young group while also adding to the future. Ottawa currently projects to have just $48.5MM in commitments to next season.

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