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Latest On The Trade Market

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As the calendar turns to 2023 and teams approach the halfway mark in their seasons, focus starts to shift towards the league’s trade deadline, set for March 3rd. That might feel far away, and in terms of a team’s season it is, but in reality it’s just two months away. Earlier, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun, Chris Johnston, and Darren Dreger convened for today’s Insider Trading segment, where the group discussed a number of topics related to not only the upcoming deadline, but team’s strategies approaching their builds, their assets, and how they’ll manage the next two months.

There’s always the odd trade or two in the months leading up to the deadline, but it seems most business gets done in the few days before and the day of. So, why would we expect any different this year? As LeBrun points out, the answer may lie at the forefront of Canada’s World Juniors performance: Connor Bedard. Every team would love to have the phenom, but presumably only the winner of the Draft Lottery will have the opportunity.

LeBrun explains that the Bedard sweepstakes could push teams to trade players earlier, perhaps even in January, in order to fortify their chances in the lottery. In other words, though teams are hesitant to use the word “tank,” if that’s their mission, getting the talent that might win a few games off the roster sooner than later could sink the team even lower in the standings than had they waited another two months. LeBrun says these conversations are certainly happening, but cautions that with the sellers, the buyers need to agree too, but the buyers must deal with a tricky cap situation. With salary cap space growing as time moves on, the teams in the market for those rental players might not be able to make the move they want until closer to the deadline.

Generally, the hot commodities at the deadline are the talented rental players, which explains why so many teams pay the high prices for them. This year, that will likely hold true, but another hot commodity will be first-round picks. Even beyond the chance to win the draft lottery for the 16 eligible slots, the 2023 draft is expected to be deep, inflating the value of all first-round choices to an extent. Thus, those picks will be in high demand, says Johnston.

In fact, Johnston says shutdown defensemen like Joel Edmundson of the Montreal Canadiens and Vladislav Gavrikov of the Columbus Blue Jackets, could both fetch their teams a first-round pick and then some. Surprising as that might sound, consider last trade deadline when Montreal was able to secure a first-round pick (and more) for veteran defenseman Ben Chiarot, then a pending UFA. Here, the 29-year-old Edmundson is under contract for another season at a very affordable $3.5MM AAV, while Gavrikov, a pending UFA, is considered one of the league’s best shutdown defenseman and is just 27-years-old himself.

Also of note on Gavrikov, Johnston adds that the struggling Blue Jackets still haven’t determined if they’ll trade him or not. Columbus of course isn’t necessarily hoping to get into the playoff race this season, but could hope to re-sign the blueliner for themselves.

One rather interesting team heading into the deadline is the St. Louis Blues, who came into tonight with a 17-17-3 record. The team recently placed star forwards and pending UFA’s Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko on IR, joining defenseman Torey Krug. Dreger notes that Blues’ GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t feel pressured to make a decision on what to do with either O’Reilly or Tarasenko, or his trade deadline approach for that matter. Instead, the organization will consider the trade value of their pending UFAs against the idea, and likelihood, of extending them.

There’s no doubt that either O’Reilly or Tarasenko would bring a large haul back for St. Louis, however trading either could foreclose any chance of bringing them back next year. That would be a tough loss, or losses, for a team still looking to compete and probably a bit surprised at their lack of success this season.

A final note, also from Dreger, is the status of the Chicago Blackhawks’ pair of franchise players: Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. Both are pending UFAs and both rumored to be on the move this winter. Dreger expects Pat Brisson, agent to both players, to engage in serious talks in the near future with each to determine the following: Do they want to be traded? If so, what does the contending field look like? And, would it be best to accept a trade, then look at the open market come July, or is a trade-and-sign an option?

As tough as it will be to move on, the Blackhawks will hope both players can be moved for a large return. However, both control their destiny, having complete no-move clauses, so a trade will not only be up to Chicago and their trade partner, but the player themselves.

Evening Notes: Kane, Motte, Chartier, Ovechkin

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Earlier today, The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus wrote a piece comparing and contrasting the position the Chicago Blackhawks are in as compared to the Nashville Predators. Lazerus advocated that Chicago’s position, in the depths of a full-scale rebuild, was more enviable than the Predators, who have several large contracts on the books for years to come, preventing them from building on it, while the team’s core hasn’t had much playoff success. As compelling as Lazerus’ article was, another interesting element was who he chose to talk to on these thoughts: Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane.

Lazerus discusses the idea with Kane, stating the winger has “’future general manager’ written all over him.” Kane’s response to that sentiment was rather intriguing as well, telling Lazerus he might be interested in something in the front office down the road, but once retirement comes around, he’d like to focus on being a dad and give his partner, Amanda, a break. That, presumably, is still a ways away for the 34-year-old, who is still playing elite level hockey and is expected to be an expensive asset at this year’s trade deadline, and again on this summer’s free agent market. Should he stick with Chicago and work his way up in their front office, an on-ice legend becoming GM not only wouldn’t be unheard of, but in today’s NHL would put him along some of the best executives in the game, including Joe Sakic and Steve Yzerman.

  • The Ottawa Senators enjoyed an exciting game this evening against the Washington Capitals, even if they did wind up losing in overtime, but it unfortunately came at an even greater cost. The team lost forward Tyler Motte in the first period to an upper-body injury, and just moments later, forward Rourke Chartier was forced to leave the game, also with an upper-body injury. Overall, Ottawa did well for itself this evening considering they were forced to play down two men for a majority of the game. Now their attention will towards both injured players moving forward. Motte, a strong two-way player, has nine points through 31 games this season while Chartier was playing in just his sixth NHL game of the season. The Senators will have some extra time to deal with their injuries, tomorrow’s game cancelled amid a poor weather forecast, next playing December 27th.
  • Alex Ovechkin has hit another impressive milestone. It wasn’t the one most fans were hoping for this evening, just one goal behind Gordie Howe for second all-time. However, with his sixth shot this evening, the legendary forward passed Hall of Fame defenseman Ray Bourque for most shots-on-goal all-time. Bourque previously held the record with 6,209 shots on goal. Considering Ovechkin is still motoring on as good as he’s ever been, and each shot being a new record, time will merely tell if his final number is a record even remotely breakable.

Latest On Patrick Kane

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When Patrick Kane’s name first entered the throes of trade speculation early this year, there were as many skeptics as believers that the Chicago Blackhawks would ever move on from their franchise-defining superstar. One of the greatest American players of all time and a slam-dunk top-five Blackhawk of all time, Kane’s play has been the defining part of the most successful on-ice period in Chicago’s history.

The team is in a landslide now, though, going 2-9-4 in their past 15 games after a 4-2-0 start to the year. While this poor play was expected, maybe even intended, with the shimmering status of 2023’s top prospects, The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus believes that Kane, while he remains inextricably tied to Chicago and could quickly return as a free agent next offseason, “doesn’t seem to be having that much fun out there” and could opt for a trade to a contender at this year’s deadline.

After shattering point-per-game paces for the past four seasons, even as the quality of the team dwindled around him, Kane’s performance is taking a step back in 2022-23. The 34-year-old right wing has 16 points and just three goals through 21 games on the year, on pace for just 62 points over a full campaign. It would be a career-low for him, excluding the shortened 2012-13 season (55 points in 47 games).

The three-time Stanley Cup champion is coming up on 1,200 career points and seems to have still at least a few seasons of competitive hockey left in him. Those seasons could still come in Chicago, coming back next season with more young prospects on the NHL roster for him to work with. But with the superstar finally seeming to start his decline, a trade may be one of Kane’s last chances to play on a contending team.

West Notes: Horvat, Meier, Kane

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During a difficult start to their season, one of the few bright spots on the Vancouver Canucks’ roster has been the play of captain Bo Horvat. Horvat currently ranks second in the NHL with 15 goals, and has 21 points in 19 games. But while his hot start is good news for Horvat and Canucks fans, it may be giving Vancouver’s management team some headaches. That’s because Horvat is a pending unrestricted free agent, and the better he plays, the larger the contract he’ll be able to receive this summer gets. And while they are undoubtedly thrilled from an on-ice perspective that Horvat is playing well, his hot start may complicate his future in Vancouver. As team president Jim Rutherford has said that the Canucks’ priority will be gaining long-term financial flexibility, not losing it, many have wondered if Horvat is pricing himself out of Vancouver’s long-term plans.

Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports that communication between Horvat’s representation and the Canucks have been “scarce,” and that there is a belief that contract talks between the two parties “broke off before training camp and have not resumed.” Since the going rate for productive top-six centermen is $7MM per year at the absolute minimum (with upwards of $8MM being the more realistic number) it’s fair to wonder if the Canucks have the desire to extend Horvat rather than deal him to a contender for a major compensation package.

For some other notes regarding Western Conference players:

  • San Jose Sharks forward Timo Meier isn’t a pending unrestricted free agent, but his expensive qualifying offer (he’s making $10MM this season on just a $6MM cap hit) and the current state of the Sharks (7-11-3, 25th in the NHL) leads one to believe that his time in San Jose could be coming to an end. Seravalli writes that it’s “unlikely” that the Sharks commit to a long-term pact with Meier, meaning a trade could be the most likely outcome for his future in teal. According to Seravalli, Meier’s “starting value on the [trade] market is considerably less than the Alex DeBrincat deal last summer,” the deal that netted the Blackhawks three draft picks, including the seventh-overall selection.
  • Legendary forward Patrick Kane could be the most sought-after name on this spring’s trade market, and it appears that the process of working towards trading him is set to begin soon. Per Seravalli, the Chicago Blackhawks are expected to “begin an initial conversation with Kane to gauge his interest in a trade.” Kane has full no-move protection, meaning he controls much of this trade process. Kane has been a Blackhawk for his entire career, so it’s certainly possible that being traded isn’t something he’ll allow. But if he wants to chase another Stanley Cup, remaining a Blackhawk won’t get him there.

No Rush To Patrick Kane Trade Talks

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The Chicago Blackhawks beat the San Jose Sharks 5-2 over the weekend, bringing their record to 1-2 on the young season. Already the team has actually looked better than advertised, but that still likely won’t be enough to keep them out of the bottom of the standings. The simple fact is that they are trying to lose, and even with some encouraging early performances (especially from captain Jonathan Toews), the team’s skill and depth have been stripped as they enter a full rebuild.

That continues to lead to questions about the future of Patrick Kane, who has just one point in those three games and is playing just 19 minutes a night. In discussion with Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, Kane’s agent Pat Brisson of CAA Sports compares the situation to the one that played out in Philadelphia last season with Flyers captain Claude Giroux. The superstar forward had played his whole career with one team, but it was obvious that there would not be a future between the two sides, and the Flyers weren’t going to be competitive.

Giroux eventually accepted a deal at the deadline, and that’s exactly the way it appears to be going with Kane. Brisson says they will “probably explore things at the appropriate time” later in the year, and once again confirmed that the Blackhawks have not and will not pressure his client into waiving his no-trade clause.

While LeBrun suggests that there could be some benefit in getting Kane earlier, it is important to remember the cap effects. Every day that passes means an acquiring team has more room to pay for the star winger, meaning more contenders could potentially enter the fray. With a full no-movement clause Kane will be in charge of the destination (as Giroux was), but perhaps teams that weren’t expected to be in the mix will emerge over the next few months.

Either way, it sounds as though there is a real chance that the market has a Hall of Fame prize this year, as Kane is still one of the very best offensive pieces in the league. Last season, he scored 26 goals and 92 points in 78 games, the third-best total of his career.

There is also the question of what happens after this season is over. In Giroux’s case, he took his family back home after a short trip in the sun and signed with the Ottawa Senators. Buffalo Sabres fans will certainly like the sounds of that, given Kane is from the city. He did also live in Detroit as a teenager, and the Red Wings are another emerging club. LeBrun points to the New York Rangers and New York Islanders as two teams who will likely have interest if he hits the market as a trade piece.

Regardless, this will be an interesting few months for hockey fans to keep an eye on the Blackhawks, even if they aren’t winning very many games.

Snapshots: Kane, Valimaki, Has

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It seems it’s no longer an “if,” but instead a “when and where” that the Chicago Blackhawks trade franchise-great Patrick Kane. With Chicago escalating its rebuilding efforts this offseason, lead by the trade of Alex DeBrincat to the Ottawa Senators, it seemed Kane was as good as gone this summer too. However, the veteran has a full no-movement clause in his contract and appears keen on taking a wait-and-see approach this season with where he would want to be dealt. Still, given the tight squeeze on the salary cap for many teams, the forward’s impending free agency, and the fact that he’s still playing near the top of his game, finding a match on his shortlist of teams could prove to be a challenge nonetheless. One team that could be a fit is the Boston Bruins, but those challenges mentioned above pose as much of an issue to them as anyone else. The Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont acknowledges those challenges, but looks to find a path to a deal between the two Original Six squads.

Given Kane’s $10.5MM cap hit, of which the Blackhawks can retain 50% in a trade, and Boston being $1.44MM over the salary cap ceiling, Chicago would certainly have to take some salary back from Boston. This might not be an issue, Dupont says, as the team could realistically craft a package around one or both of forward Jake DeBrusk and defenseman Brandon Carlo, who carry cap hits of $4MM and $4.1MM respectively. These two aren’t the sort of young prospects or premier draft picks Chicago would hope to acquire, but could represent a collection of young talent that would help get things moving forward more quickly for the Blackhawks. Dupont also points to youngsters Jakub Zboril or Jack Studnicka as an additional sweetener if needed, but does raise concern if a first-round draft pick was needed on top of this package.

  • It’s once again that time of year where we’ll see at least a dozen players, if not more, hit the waiver wire each day, with some very intriguing names as part of that. Today’s crop of waiver-wire finds includes a pair of former top Avalanche prospects in Martin Kaut and Shane Bowers, who may still have room to grow, an intriguing defenseman in Mark Friedman, as well as another young 2017 first round pick like Bowers in that of Calgary Flames defenseman Juuso Valimaki. Considering the amount of players on waivers and teams needing to trim their rosters, many players that would be claimed any other time of the year, are able to be snuck through. However, Hailey Salvian of The Athletic believes Valimaki might not be able to sneak through so easily. Losing someone like Valimaki, who still has some upside, for nothing wouldn’t be ideal for Calgary, but for Valimaki, Salvian points out, it could be a fresh start, perhaps with an opportunity to once again establish himself as an everyday NHLer.
  • The Hershey Bears, the AHL affiliate of the Washington Capitals, have signed defenseman Martin Has to a one-year AHL deal, the team announced. That news alone doesn’t seem to make it much different from any other AHL signing, however it does carry with it the caveat that Has is a Capitals draft pick who has not signed an ELC, but is still eligible for one. Has was a fifth-round selection of the Capitals back in 2019, but has seen limited game action prior to last season. The 21-year-old defenseman did put together a solid year in 2021-22 though, getting into 57 games as a member of the Shawinigan Cataractes in the QMJHL, recording 20 points. The Capitals have one year remaining in order to decide whether or not they would like to offer Has his ELC, otherwise he will become a free agent next summer.

Snapshots: Kane, White, Red Wings

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With the Blackhawks clearly embarking on a large-scale rebuild, there has been an expectation that long-time star winger Patrick Kane will be on the move.  However, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports (audio link) that the veteran isn’t interested in being traded this offseason.  Instead, if a deal is going to happen, it will come closer to the trade deadline.  From a cap standpoint, that would be more palatable for contending teams when three-quarters of his $10.5MM will be paid off.  Kane has full control over where he moves but it appears that move won’t be coming for a while yet.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Panthers center Colin White told Ian Mendes of The Athletic (subscription link) that his preference this summer was to sign a one-year contract over pursuing a multi-year agreement on the open market. Some had speculated he’d follow long-time agent Kent Hughes to Montreal and while White mentioned he gave some consideration to doing so, he decided that it was more important to go to a winning team.  While White is coming off a pair of injury-plagued seasons, the 25-year-old could be an upside signing for Florida on his one-year, $1.2MM deal.
  • While extension talks between the Red Wings and Dylan Larkin clearly haven’t resulted in a new deal yet, MLive’s Ansar Khan believes an agreement, whenever it does get reached, should give the Michigan native maximum term and an AAV in the $8MM range. The 26-year-old isn’t the prototypical number one center from an offensive standpoint as he has never reached the point-per-game mark but he has logged more than 20 minutes a game on average over the past five seasons.  If a deal does get done in that price range, it would represent a roughly $2MM increase on what Larkin is making now.
  • Robert Mastrosimone’s decision to leave Boston University for Arizona State University raised some eyebrows but Khan notes in a separate column that the Red Wings were on board with the idea of him transferring. The 21-year-old was a second-round pick in 2019 (52nd overall) and was coming off a good season with the Terriers that saw him put up 25 points in 34 games but he should have an opportunity for a bigger role with the Sun Devils next season in the hopes that a good showing will give him an entry-level deal.

Latest On Patrick Kane

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It’s clear that the veteran leadership in the Chicago Blackhawks dressing room is disappointed in the direction of the franchise the last few months, selling off young, core pieces for future assets. General manager Kyle Davidson has suggested it will be a five-plus year rebuild, something that doesn’t sound appealing to captain Jonathan Toews.

Unlike Toews, who has struggled in recent years to stay healthy and productive, Patrick Kane is still one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league and would likely draw a crowd if made available. While David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period tweets that the Blackhawks have engaged in trade discussions regarding Kane and lists the Dallas Stars as one of the teams with recent interest, Mark Lazerus of The Athletic has thrown cold water on any speculation. Lazerus has been informed by a source that there have been no trade talks so far, though admits that teams are likely “sniffing around” on the superstar forward.

Kane, of course, holds most of the power here, with a full no-movement clause that allows him to dictate who he can be traded to, and when. If he wanted to stay in Chicago for the final year of his current contract, there’s nothing that the Blackhawks could do about it. If he’s willing to move though, it represents another high-priced asset that could allow Davidson to add even more talent to the team down the road.

For many fans in Chicago though, trading Kane (or Toews) is more than just moving out an asset. The first-overall pick in 2007 has spent his entire career with the Blackhawks, winning three Stanley Cup championships, a Calder Trophy, the Hart, Pearson, and Art Ross all in the same year, and a Conn Smythe. He has 1,180 points in 1,107 games and would be a lock for the Hall of Fame even if he retired today.

At 33, he is still very much a dominant presence in the NHL and scored 92 points just this past season. That actually might be part of the reason why the Blackhawks would want to move him in the first place. In a season in which they appear to be tanking for the best odds in the 2023 draft, Kane’s presence could potentially elevate teammates to competitive status and help them win too many games.

So while Toews has been vocal with some of his frustration, Kane remains the player most fans are focused on this offseason. If he gives the okay, there will likely be an arms race to try and acquire him, especially if the Blackhawks are willing to retain half of his remaining contract (and why wouldn’t they, really). Kane carries a cap hit of $10.5MM but is due just $6.9MM this season, with $4MM of that to be paid in signing bonuses.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Jonathan Toews

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It wasn’t too many years ago that Jonathan Toews and his Chicago Blackhawks were at the top of the league’s pecking order, but it somehow also seems like the team’s rebuild has dragged on for too long with no end in sight. It’s an arduous process that’s called Toews’ (and Patrick Kane’s) future with the team into question, as the Blackhawks legends are just one year away from the expiration of their contracts and unrestricted free agency. Speaking with The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus, Toews says he “really doesn’t know” what the future holds for him and said the idea of a lengthy rebuild “[didn’t] sound appealing.”

In his interview, Toews spoke frankly about Chicago’s moves since the turn of the calendar year, specifically referencing the team’s trades involving Brandon Hagel, Alex DeBrincat, and Kirby Dach. Calling it “unfortunate that it’s come to that,” Toews especially named Dach as a player he felt he had under his wing and had developed a good mentor relationship with.

On a more positive note for Toews and Blackhawks fans, he spoke highly of the team’s expected approach under new head coach Luke Richardson. If he isn’t approached about a trade prior to the season (he does still have a full no-movement clause), he said he’s “really excited” to play under Richardson and his hard-working approach.

Regardless, this is a significant crossroads for Toews and the Blackhawks organization. Considering his declining production and recent health issues, it could very well be that this is simply Toews’ last season playing in the NHL. Toews had just 37 points in 71 games last season, and even his half-retained cap hit of $5.25MM might be too hard to stomach for most interested teams. If Toews plans to either retire or sign elsewhere in free agency, Chicago risks ill-affordable poor asset management by not getting potential trade value in return for Toews.

With that said, it’s nearly impossible to predict when Toews’ trade value would be highest. Does Chicago bank on Toews having a rebound year, allowing them to get a higher return closer to the trade deadline, or do they trade him prior to the season in anticipation of declining value? It’s a delicate, tricky situation as all parties are concerned.

Latest On Patrick Kane

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With the Chicago Blackhawks deciding to rebuild halfway through their previous rebuild, speculation has run rampant about all-time great Patrick Kane’s future with the team. If dealt, he’d be one of the best players and biggest names traded in the past few seasons, joining blockbuster deals like the Jack Eichel and Erik Karlsson trades. However, TSN’s Darren Dreger today pumped the brakes on trade rumors, saying that Kane’s camp “remains undecided” and that any rumors at this point are purely speculative.

At 33 years old, Kane still has 100-point potential while logging heavy minutes. He hasn’t hit that mark since posting 110 points in 2018-19, but he’s stayed well above a point-per-game pace since then on a continually struggling Blackhawks squad. One of the most decorated American-born players of all time, his playing ability still remains very close to his prime.

It’s because of that fact that a potential trade seems so realistic to fans around the league. It would’ve seemed a guarantee just a few seasons ago that Kane would remain a Blackhawk for life, but as the team failed to rebuild quickly (or properly in the slightest) and management changed hands drastically, no one would blame him for not wanting to waste the last few seasons of his peak on a sinking ship.

With or without Kane, Chicago figures to be a bottom-five team next year with little doubt. Trading him could, however, end up being the difference between a top-five selection and the 2023 first overall selection, which would land them a potentially generational center in Connor Bedard.

Just one season away from unrestricted free agency, it could make a lot of sense for Chicago to deal him ahead of the season too. While they might not get as high of a return without an extension in place for Kane with his new team, it could open the door for him to return to the team in 2023-24 to potentially usher Bedard into the league if they do land the top pick.

Regardless, Kane’s choice will be an important one to watch as the offseason progresses. He’ll still command a fair bit of salary cap space even if Chicago does retain salary, unless the acquiring team wishes to pay a third team extra assets in order to retain additional salary.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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