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2020 Offer Sheet Compensation

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We finally saw an offer sheet used last summer as the Montreal Canadiens signed Sebastian Aho to a five-year deal, but the deal was quickly matched by the Carolina Hurricanes. Aho stayed put, but the team had to turn down a big package of draft picks that Montreal would have had to surrender.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, and the NHL has released the thresholds for this year. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,439,820 or less No compensation
$1,439,820 to $2,181,545 Third-round pick
$2,181,545 to $4,363,095 Second-round pick
$4,363,095 to $6,544,640 First and third-round picks
$6,544,640 to $8,726,188 First, second and third-round picks
$8,726,188 to $10,907,735 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,907,735 Four first-round picks

It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not ones that have been acquired. That rules several teams out already from signing high profile RFAs, unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract.

There are some restricted free agents, like Philadelphia’s Nolan Patrick, that have not accumulated enough time in the NHL to be eligible for an offer sheet. The full list of eligible players can be found here. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.

East Notes: Capitals Defense, Montreal Offer Sheet, Debrusk

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The Washington Capitals may be considered one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, but they have their work cut out for them. The team struggled in the last two months before play was suspended with a mediocre 8-9-3 over their past 20 games. Much of their struggle is due to the team’s poor defense where head coach Todd Reirden was seen experimenting with different defensive combinations over that stretch, which included removing veteran Radko Gudas from the rotation altogether.

In a panel of writers, The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir (subscription required) writes that a new training camp couldn’t come at the right time for the Capitals who now have a second chance to find the right pairings and fix their leaky blueline. Much will depend on the players and how they perform at training camp, but there is hope that defenseman Michal Kempny might have more confidence now in his surgically repaired hamstring. The team will also hope Gudas can bounce back and push his way back into the lineup. The team might also get a boost from trade deadline acquisition Brenden Dillon, who will get a training camp to adjust to his new team. El-Bashir also notes the team could look to prospect Martin Fehervary, who will also be on the Capitals’ roster.

  • In a recent mailbag column, The Athletic’s Arpon Basu (subscription requires) responds to a question about offer sheets and St. Louis Blues defenseman Vince Dunn. Basu wonders whether the Montreal Canadiens might be an interesting destination for the 23-year-old blue liner since St. Louis is currently cap-strapped and have to deal with the contract of Alex Pietrangelo as well as the future contracts of Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Binnington. A significant offer sheet at around $4.2MM AAV would be very challenging for the Blues to match and would bring quite a few questions on whether Dunn is worth that much since. especially since he’s not even eligible for arbitration. That offer would only cost the Canadiens a second-round pick in compensation as well. Montreal is also the most recent team to use an offer sheet, having tried to pry away Carolina’s Sebastian Aho last offseason to no avail.
  • The Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont writes that head coach Bruce Cassidy is stuck once again with answering the question, ’Who will play alongside David Krejci?’ on the team’s second line. The scribe writes that while Jake Debrusk would seem to be a solid candidate to take that role, training camp could open up the possibilities of moving Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase into those roles where chemistry might not be that big of an issue with time to acclimate with Krejci. That would not be good for Debrusk’s stock as he will be a restricted free agent at the end of the year and finding himself on the third line wouldn’t help is value.

PHR Panel: Offer Sheet Candidates

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on potential offer sheet fireworks.

Q: Which players could be offer sheet candidates this offseason?

Brian La Rose: 

Islanders center Mathew Barzal would have been at or near the top of the list but GM Lou Lamoriello tried his best to put an end to that last month when he stated they would match any offer.

I’ve long thought that it’s the lower-priced players that make sense as offer sheet targets rather than the ones for top talent and perhaps this will be the year where that happens considering the potentially lower salary cap.

The Rangers are a team that could be hit hard by that which leaves someone like Anthony DeAngelo at risk.  He’s having a breakout year offensively but with Alexandar Georgiev and Ryan Strome needing new deals plus Kevin Shattenkirk’s buyout cost jumping, they may have a hard time keeping him which makes him a potential piece.  At the lower end, Brendan Lemieux could be an option as New York will want him to take a cheaper short-term deal which leaves them vulnerable to a longer-term offer.

Chicago could be vulnerable on the cap, especially if their currently injured veterans are cleared to come back.  In particular, they probably can’t afford to give Dylan Strome a long-term offer and can use his ineligibility for arbitration to try to force that direction.  But if he wants a long-term deal, he may have to take an offer sheet to get it.

There’s no guarantee that there will be one this offseason but the pending cap situation makes it more of a realistic option than it usually is.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

I feel like many people are talking about teams making big offers to the New York Islanders’ Mathew Barzal, but I can’t really see that as an option for teams. While there was one offer sheet last year that went to Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, I really can’t see teams allowing their franchise player to leave for any reason. Even if Montreal had made a bigger offer, it seems hard to believe that the Hurricanes would have let Aho go. The same would go for Barzal. After losing John Tavares to free agency, there is no way Lou Lamoriello would allow Barzal to leave.

The only way that a team would be able to pull off a successful offer sheet would be to attack a team right up against the cap with a mid-level player with a big offer. Teams need to focus on a team like the Boston Bruins and give an offer sheet to someone like Jake Debrusk, who with a solid offer, might outprice himself on a team full of expensive veterans. The question is whether a player like Debrusk is worthy of a solid offer that might overwhelm the cap of the Bruins as he isn’t necessarily looked upon as a franchise player. However there is a much better chance of success than going after a franchise face.

Zach Leach: 

I have always felt that an offer sheet is a tool of opportunity. It is not necessarily best-used to try to outbid a competitor for one of the best RFA’s on the market, but instead to take advantage of a team struggling against the cap or an internal budget. Should the 2020-21 salary cap come in below the estimation, a number of teams will be in that situation this year. For those lucky enough not to be left scrambling by an uncertain offseason, they could go hunting for valuable RFA’s on troubled teams.

No team is more at risk than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa is lacking space heading into the off-season with a trio of prize RFA’s in need of new deals. I feel one of these three – Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak – is the most likely to sign an offer sheet. Not only can the Bolts not afford to overpay for these players without dismantling their veteran core, but each player also knows that they stand a better chance at playing a bigger role almost anywhere other than with the uber-deep Lightning. It’s also hard to imagine any rival clubs feeling sorry about weakening Tampa, arguably the strongest lineup on paper in the NHL.

Two other situations that bear watching belong to the Chicago Blackhawks and Toronto Maple Leafs, who each have impressive, older rookies heading toward RFA status. 24-year-old Dominik Kubalik has been a revelation for the ’Hawks this season and is likely to be a Calder Trophy candidate. Now that he has proven himself, a competitor could feel comfortable extending a high-salary, long-term deal that Chicago cannot match. If the Blackhawks do match or are proactive with a substantial extension, it would require a shake-up in the roster or could potentially leave Dylan Strome susceptible to an offer sheet himself. Meanwhile, Ilya Mikheyev got off to a hot start in Toronto prior to a season-ending injury but showed in that short time that he is a legitimate NHL talent. The Leafs cannot stretch their young, but expensive roster any further and would have to choose between Mikheyev and another young star if pressed by a sizable offer sheet.

Gavin Lee:

If I’m looking for a target to sign to an offer sheet, I’d never be going after a team’s best player. Those deals will almost certainly be matched, if they even sign it in the first place. No, I’m looking for that underlying group of talented players that may have not yet broken out or received the right opportunity. Obviously if a team is in a cap crunch it can be even more effective, but remember that the player has to be the one to sign it—as in, it has to be worth their while and you’re likely going to have to overpay.

One name that comes immediately to mind in that situation is Kevin Labanc of the San Jose Sharks. After an impressive 17-goal, 56-point 2018-19, Labanc bet on his own talent and agreed to a shocking one-year, $1MM deal with the Sharks. He’s now arbitration-eligible and an RFA once again, perhaps looking to make back some of the money he left on the table.

Now Labanc isn’t a sure thing. His production dropped this season to just 33 points in 70 games, but if you believe he can be a difference-maker on your powerplay and strengthen your middle-six, perhaps he’s the right one to target. The Sharks aren’t in a perfect cap situation because of their expensive, aging core, and are even down several draft picks after going deadline shopping the last few years. Maybe they would have to let Labanc go if he signed a substantial long-term offer sheet.

More On Mitch Marner’s Negotiation

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Mitch Marner is back at the Toronto Maple Leafs training camp after signing a six-year deal worth more than $65MM last week. The young forward was one of the biggest stories of the offseason as his representatives and the team went back and forth on term and salary, threatening to miss time like his teammate William Nylander last year. This morning, Marner’s agent Darren Ferris told Sportsnet radio that two offer sheets were presented to his client during the offseason but that they never considered accepting them, instead wanting to get a deal done with the Maple Leafs. Marner himself confirmed it, explaining his decision to Kristen Shilton of TSN:

As soon as Darren mentioned [offer sheets], I told him right away I don’t want to explore that option. But I didn’t want to miss training camp…or any games this season, so that’s why I really forced the issue with Kyle [Dubas] to get something done and get me here.

While Marner may have immediately turned down the offer sheets, it does raise some questions about which teams tried them and how much they were willing to pay. Former NHL forward Matthew Barnaby believes they were from the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild, though Marner and Ferris obviously wouldn’t confirm. If they had been equivalent to the deal that Marner eventually got from the Maple Leafs, the teams would have had to give up the maximum RFA compensation of four first-round picks. That’s a tough price for any team to pay, and one that would have forced the Maple Leafs to at least consider the option.

Now though, Toronto can focus on their upcoming preseason schedule with the whole group signed and in training camp. Marner, Auston Matthews and John Tavares now make up three of the seven highest-paid forwards in the league and will need to prove they can have more than just regular season success. With players like Jake Muzzin and Tyson Barrie coming off the books or demanding raises next summer as unrestricted free agents, this season may be one of the team’s only shots with the current group.

Snapshots: Datsyuk, Faulk, Karlsson, Sutter

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Despite some initial speculation early this off-season, it seems an NHL comeback for Pavel Datsyuk is unlikely. Speaking to Helene St. James of The Detroit Free Press, agent Dan Milstein stated that Datsyuk’s probable landing spot remains his home town of Yekaterinburg with the KHL’s Avtomobilist. A free agent after wrapping up a very successful three-year stint with SKA St. Petersburg, Datsyuk made it known that he was leaving SKA and was hoping to land somewhere more familiar to he and his family. The 40-year-old center’s NHL rights are currently owned by the Arizona Coyotes, but they expire on July 1st with the start of the new league year. As such, there was some thought that he could return to the Detroit Red Wings, where he spent all 14 years of his NHL career. Datsyuk would be joining a team now run by fellow Red Wings legend Steve Yzerman and even in his advanced age, Datsyuk would have had the chance to return to a key role for Detroit. Although he recently visited the city and reportedly spoke to Yzerman and company, Milstein maintains that Datsyuk is more likely to settle into a cushy role in Yekaterinburg. “We are meeting in the coming days to discuss options and future plans,” Milstein said, but it seems that the decision is already close to being made. “It’s very likely Pavel will live up to his promise of playing for his hometown team in Russia.”

  • In an article offering up some trade suggestions over the waning days of the NHL postseason for those teams no longer in the running, USA Today’s Kevin Allen notes that teams may not want to waste their time trying to pry a defenseman out of Carolina. The Hurricanes succeeded this season largely because of their strength on the back end and GM Don Waddell appears more concerned with maintaining that depth rather than leveraging it. Allen reports that the team is engaged in extension talks with long-time stalwart Justin Faulk, whose current contract expires after next season. Allen adds that the team is not interested in dealing Faulk or any of their top-four defensemen at this time, which certainly includes Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce, but may also include their big free agent addition from last summer, Calvin de Haan. The one defenseman who might have been dangled as trade bait is Trevor van Riemsdyk who, like Faulk, has only one year remaining on his contract. However, a long-term injury that will see van Riemsdyk on the sidelines to begin the season will probably put a damper on any trade talks. van Riemsdyk’s early-season absence will also allow youngsters Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean to see some NHL ice time, keeping all blue line parties content through another season at least.
  • Offer sheets remain a rare occurrence in the NHL – the last came in 2013 – but that doesn’t stop talk from spreading every off-season that one of the top restricted free agents could finally land such an offer. One prominent RFA whose name has not been associated with an offer sheet thus far, perhaps should be, writes David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Schoen believes that center William Karlsson is a prime candidate for an offer sheet this summer. The Vegas Golden Knights are already buried in payroll and the off-season has yet to begin. CapFriendly estimates that they are already over the projected $83MM ceiling for next season, yet still have Karlsson, Nikita Gusev, Malcolm Subban, and others to re-sign. The Knights will be forced to move out salary regardless, but a substantial offer sheet signed by Karlsson may be too much for Vegas to match. Specifically, Schoen names the Carolina Hurricanes, Ottawa Senators, Minnesota Wild, and Detroit Red Wings as potential suitors, citing cap space and need for all four teams.
  • While it is not a done deal, the Los Angeles Kings don’t appear worried about losing one of their key free agents. Fox Sports’ Jon Rosen reports that the Kings are close to extending Brett Sutter, the captain of the AHL’s Ontario Reign. Sutter, 32, is a respected veteran who Rosen states is a “great conduit between the coaching staff and dressing room.” An experienced and productive minor league forward, Sutter is the type of dedicated player that all organizations like to have around and it seems he will be back with L.A. for at least one more year.

Combine Notes: Marner, Dubas, Johnson, Turcotte

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Toronto Maple Leafs fans may be nervous about the prospect of a Mitch Marner offer sheet, especially after some recent comments, but GM Kyle Dubas isn’t. Dubas tells NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger that he has used the ongoing NHL Scouting combine as an opportunity to meet with Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, in hopes of getting a new deal done with their star forward as soon as possible:

We’re not letting any time slip away. Any chance we’ve had to have time with Darren, we’re taking it. We’re trying to move it along. That’s really the key. I don’t see any need to delay it. We would like to come to agreements the very first minute we can. Unfortunately with the way things are it’s not overly realistic to think we can do that. Just keep working. I think I said before — we have to go back to check the tape — everyone knows how we feel about Mitch. I’m not afraid to say that Mitch holds a special place in the cosmos of our group… The reality is, Mitch is a great player. We’ve been very clear how we feel about him as a player and a person. He’s been a great Maple Leaf. He should be a Maple Leaf his whole career. I think Mitch and Darren have both stated that at times. We’re going to keep working with Darren to move this along and progress it ahead and come to an agreement which will make Mitch feel like he’s compensated at the level he’s deserved and us with a way to navigate our way ahead. I think if we’re all willing to work towards it we’ll get there. That’s what we have the time for here.

Dubas continues that he would be surprised if Marner were to entertain the idea of an offer sheet and has never been led to believe that it has been discussed as an option by Marner’s camp. Dubas knows that Marner, as well as Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, could be popular targets for the elusive offer sheet, but is prepared to deal with that scenario if it arises:

I think you have to study what the probability may be. You can’t ignore it. You can’t just say that because something hasn’t happened, it won’t happen. You have to be realistic. You have to look around and identify which teams have the capital, which teams have the cap space, and which teams have the combination of both… That’s the way we’ve gone about it. As a management group, our focus has been on finding contract resolutions with Mitch and Johnsson and Kapanen.

By all accounts, Dubas is farther along in talks with all three of Marner, Johnsson, and Kapanen than he was with William Nylander at this time last year. Nylander of course held out well into the start of this past season, but that doesn’t appear to be the likely outcome for any Toronto RFA’s this year. And while the threat of offer sheets exist, that too doesn’t seem to be a probable ending. The question thus becomes, if new contracts can be signed with Marner, Johnsson, and Kapanen, where does it leave the Maple Leafs in salary cap terms and who will have to move this summer to make the team cap compliant?

  • While NHL executives and agents alike obviously use the NHL Scouting Combine as an opportunity to talk to one another, the focus of course is on the draft class. One prospect in particular has been busier than just about anyone at the combine. NBC Sports Chicago’s Slavko Bekovic reports that American defenseman Ryan Johnson is the only player in attendance thought to have met with all 31 NHL teams. Johnson is not your typical popular top-of-the-first prospect, though. Instead, he has been ranked as high as No. 18 and as low as No. 55 by reputable scouting sources and many teams are likely still trying to gauge whether or not he is a first-round caliber player. To his credit, Johnson will at least likely go ahead of many highly-regarded U.S. National Team Development Program defenders after he himself did not make the team. The stalwart defenseman for the USHL’s Sioux Falls Stampede is a solid, mobile defenseman and a strong locker room presence, but the question is whether he is a top-31 player in this draft. Every team in the league will apparently get the chance to answer that question.
  • Bekovic also reports that Illinois native Alex Turcotte, a top-ten prospect, has met with his hometown Chicago Blackhawks this week. While the Blackhawks have met with several other intriguing prospects who they could select at No. 3, including Bowen Byram, Dylan Cozens, Kirby Dach, and Peyton Krebs, it’s hard to ignore the fit that Turcotte would have with the organization. The USNTDP standout told Bekovic that he grew up a big Blackhawks fan and has always dreamed of playing for the team. He also models his game after Jonathan Toews and relishes in the frequent comparisons between the two. GM Stan Bowman is not going to let sentiment dictate a crucial pick for his franchise, but Turcotte’s talent alone may make him the third-best player in this class, with the local ties just an added bonus.

Atlantic Notes: Kapanen, Johnsson, Ristolainen, Krejci

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While the Toronto Maple Leafs know what to expect when it comes to the future contract for Mitch Marner, it isn’t as straight forward for their other two key restricted free agents in Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson. Some of the reason for that is that young forwards with little experience who post an impressive season, often don’t get rewarded when they hit restricted free agency and that could easily be the case for the Maple Leafs, according to The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required).

Kapanen, who hits restricted free agency for the first time, had an impressive season last year as he put up 20 goals and 44 points as a full-time player. However, before that, he had played a combined 55 games (and tallying just 10 points) over three separate seasons. Johnsson posted very similar numbers as he tallied 20 goals and 43 points in 73 games last season, but has played just 82 games in two years.

There are a number of comparables, however, including Ondrej Kase, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Phillip Danault, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Teuvo Teravainen and Andre Burakovsky. All of them opted to sign a bridge deal with the hopes to prove to their respective teams that they can score like that consistently, suggesting that each of them may make anywhere from $2.7MM to $3.3MM AAV if they follow suit.

Of course, the problem could come down to offer sheets as both players would likely be prime candidates to sign offer sheets with other teams that could be closer to $4MM with a less risky compensation (just a second-round pick) which could cause quite a bit of havoc to Toronto’s salary cap situation.

  • Despite multiple rumors that the Buffalo Sabres are considering dealing defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen, who has never been able to take that next step and become a star defenseman like the team thought would happen when he joined the franchise six years ago, TSN’s Darren Dreger (while appearing on WGR 550) said he doesn’t believe that the Sabres will entertain the notion of trading him. Dreger said he doesn’t believe it’s a move the team feels is critical, but general manager Jason Botterill is still open to listening to offers. Of course, one fear of moving him is that Ristolainen could take that next step wherever he gets traded to, which the Sabres would prefer to avoid.
  • NHL.com’s Eric Russo writes that the Boston Bruins have been without center David Krejci for the past few days as the center has been out with an illness. He missed Thursday’s scrimmage and skipped practice on Saturday although head coach Bruce Cassidy said he hopes to have Krejci back on Sunday. “Precautionary,” said Cassidy. “I suspect we’ll see him tomorrow. That is the plan. If he’s not out tomorrow, now there’s a little bit of worry there. But right now, I believe he’ll be practicing tomorrow.”

Eastern Notes: Canadiens, Armia, Capitals’ Defense, Kadri

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After a couple of down years, the Montreal Canadiens had a much more respectable season last year and with things looking up, general manager Marc Bergevin is going to want to add to his team. With close to $10MM to spend this year, the team could consider going after big-name free agents.

However, Pat Hickey of the Montreal Gazette writes that a second option would be for the Canadiens to go after Toronto Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner. While offer sheets in the NHL are quite rare, that could change this offseason with so many intriguing restricted free agents out there. The team could conceivably sign Marner to an offer sheet and if the Canadiens offer a deal between $8.54MM to $10.56MM, and successfully pry him away from Toronto, the compensation would be reasonable in two first-round picks, a second-rounder and a third-rounder.

Even if Toronto matches any offer sheet, the Canadiens will have still accomplished quite a bit as the rival franchise is currently struggling with salary cap issues and a big offer would only hamper general manager Kyle Dubas’ long-term plans.

  • Sticking with the Canadiens, while one of the main reasons that the Montreal Canadiens took Joel Armia in the Steve Mason deal was that Armia was from the same hometown in Finland as last year’s top pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Armia has been significant in helping Kotkaniemi to transition to North America. However, while Armia’s numbers have been solid when playing next to Kotkaniemi on the ice, his numbers when playing without him haven’t been that good. The Athletic’s Marc Dupont (subscription required) writes the team needs to be cautious about signing Armia, who hits restricted free agency this summer, to a long-term contract. Armia, who tallied 13 goals as a third-liner, and probably should be signed to a short-term deal to assess for now.
  • The Washington Capitals didn’t get back to the Stanley Cup Finals liked they hoped and with continuous salary cap issues to deal with, there is a good chance the Capitals’ blueline will have to be reconstructed, according to the Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that the team might be ready to move on from veteran defenseman Matt Niskanen, after the team acquired Nick Jensen at the trade deadline. Jensen is four years younger than Niskanen and has the same skillset. The team is also expected to move on from Brooks Orpik, giving more opportunity to the team’s young defensive prospects it has been amassing over the last couple of years, including Jonas Siegenthaler, Lucas Johansen, Alex Alexeyev, Connor Hobbs, Colby Williams and Tyler Lewington.
  • Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes that the Philadelphia Flyers are going to want to make some type of splash to add a big-name player either through free agency or via trade. While throwing out names like Matt Duchene and Kevin Hayes are one option, the scribe suggests that the Flyers should consider trading for Toronto Maple Leafs’ Nazem Kadri, who is coming off a career-low 16 goals. With Toronto management down on him somewhat, the Flyers could get a steal of a deal as the center has three years on his deal at a reasonable $4.5MM AAV. Kadri would make an excellent second-line center, who could slide back to the third line once Nolan Patrick is ready to move up.

Offer Sheet Compensation Thresholds For The Upcoming Offseason

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Offer sheets are a rare occurrence in the NHL but that doesn’t stop some from trying to use it as leverage over the course of the summer.  Some have speculated that this could change this summer with so many prominent restricted free agents in need of new contracts.  That list includes Jacob Trouba, Kyle Connor, and Patrik Laine (Winnipeg), Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary), Mitch Marner (Toronto), Sebastian Aho (Carolina), and Mikko Rantanen (Colorado), among many others.  Teams now know what the draft pick compensation will cost; TSN’s Gord Miller reports (Twitter link) that the offer sheet thresholds are as follows:

$1,395,053 or below: No compensation required
$1,395,054 to $2,113,716: Third-round pick
$2,113,717 to $4,227,437: Second-round pick
$4,227,438 to $6,341,152: First-round pick plus a third-round pick
$6,341,153 to $8,454,871: First, second, and third-round picks
$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

All draft picks must be from the team that gets the player to sign the offer sheet; selections from other teams cannot be substituted.  The maximum denominator used in determining the AAV of the cost is five.  If a player signs an offer sheet for a term longer than that, the total value of the contract is divided by five and that number will be used as the AAV for determining draft pick compensation, not the average value of the contract itself.

Considering the price tag for someone in the top tier in terms of both salary and draft pick compensation, it’s quite unlikely that anyone potentially in line for that type of payday will be signing an offer sheet.  However, the threshold for a second-rounder is at least somewhat intriguing.  A $4.25MM AAV is fairly significant and with a second being the cost at that price tag, it’s plausible that a team could target a lower-end player with an offer around that level, forcing the team to match or part with that player for a fairly low return.

Of course, given how infrequently players actually sign an offer sheet, there’s a very good chance that the summer will pass without one actually being submitted.  Despite that, expect there to be plenty of speculation about these over the coming months.

Maple Leafs’ Off-Season On Hold Until Mitch Marner Decision

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With over $74MM tied up in 17 players heading into next season, none of whom are young star winger Mitch Marner, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in for a tough summer. It is clear that signing Marner is “priority one”, but what Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston points out is that in terms of not just importance, but also time. Speaking with Leafs GM Kyle Dubas, there was an understanding that Toronto cannot do much this off-season prior to signing Marner (or else moving him):

Without an answer on Mitch, we’re going to kind of be in a stalemate, right? It is a top priority because we’re not going to jump around and chew up our cap space that we may need for Mitch with fringe signings, either. It’s important. We’ve just got to get to work on it and get it done… It’s a tough process. It’s long, and just don’t expect anything to get done nice and smoothly. It’s always a battle.

Dubas has been adamant that the team will need to resolve the Marner situation by July 1st, one way or another, and for good reason. Following another early playoff exit, the team is hoping to improve this off-season and the free agent market, which opens on that date, will be one of their main opportunities. However, as Dubas notes, the team cannot make even fringe additions until Marner is signed and their salary cap status is clear. The team is expected to lose defenseman Jake Gardiner, but more affordable extensions with the likes of Ron Hainsey, Tyler Ennis, and Michael Hutchinson remain possible, yet harder to get done once those players hit the open market.

One other way to solve the cap crisis is via trade, but even that route is risky without clarity on Marner. While fans may prefer to see the likes of Nikita Zaitsev, Nazem Kadri, or Connor Brown dealt away, it is Marner’s RFA brethren Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson who will carry more value on the trade market. Just like their UFA counterparts in Toronto, Dubas and company cannot re-sign Kapanen and Johnsson – who are due substantial raises of their own – without first knowing the details on Marner. The team would also be taking a major risk by trading either one in hopes of creating the space needed for Marner, as failure to get the star forward signed regardless would leave them down two young scoring assets.

Johnston writes that offer sheets – often an over-hyped false reality anyway – are the least of the Leafs’ worries. Not only would the team have the right to match any offer made to Marner, but a deal large enough to lure him away from his hometown team would likely net Toronto four first-round picks. That price could be worth giving Marner up, if any team actually had the audacity to make such a move.

There seems to be mutual benefit between Marner and the Maple Leafs in getting a new deal done. However, only Toronto has a time crunch to manage, while Marner can hold out for his best possible deal, as he has every right to do. It seems like the Leafs won’t possibly be able to sign Marner without first moving out some salary, so if any move can occur before a Marner extension, expect it to be a cap dump by Dubas. Otherwise, prepare for a quiet couple of months in Toronto until this situation can be resolved.

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