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Latest On Montreal Canadiens Draft Strategy

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The Montreal Canadiens had a miserable season in 2021-22, a campaign where they finished last in the NHL and saw their longtime general manager lose his job. The main benefit of that poor performance was revealed last month when the Canadiens won the draft lottery and the right to pick first overall. For years now, many have assumed that Ontario native Shane Wright, a center for the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs and one of the rare players to be granted exceptional player status by the Canadian Hockey League, was a lock to be selected first overall regardless of who held the pick.

Apparently, though, that assumption may have been premature. According to Arpon Basu and Marc Antoine Godin of The Athletic, (subscription link) it is “not a slam dunk” that the Canadiens will select Wright first overall. Additionally, Basu and Godin state that the rapid rise of Slovakian winger Juraj Slafkovsky has “left the Canadiens quite impressed.” So, despite Wright being the consensus top talent in the draft for several years now, (although that consensus has gotten a bit weaker in recent months) both Basu and Godin believe that it “wouldn’t be very surprising” if the Canadiens passed on Wright in favor of Slafkovsky.

The implications of the Canadiens’ decision are relatively far-reaching. The New Jersey Devils hold the number-two selection in the draft, and have in the past flirted with the idea of trading their pick for more immediate help. The Devils already have previous number-one picks Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes locked in as their top-two centers for a long time, so if a top center like Wright is available with their pick, could we see a bidding war for the pick unlike anything we have seen at drafts in the past?

If the Canadiens pass on Wright, could that heighten any potential desire they may have to trade up with their second first-round pick (acquired from the Calgary Flames for Tyler Toffoli) in order to still come out of the first round having drafted a center? The Canadiens’ front office is led by former New York Rangers GM Jeff Gorton, who has in the past shown an eagerness to trade up in the first round to acquire his scouts’ desired player, as he did in 2018 and 2020, in order to draft K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider, respectively.

With Wright seen as such a clear number-one pick for so long, the Canadiens possibly going in a different direction could lead to one of the more entertaining drafts in recent memory. That idea is perhaps emphasized by the fact that the draft is being held in Montreal. Based on the information gathered by Basu and Godin at the NHL Combine, the potentially chaotic scenario of the Canadiens passing on Wright to take Slafkovsky may be likelier than most people believe it to be.

2022 NHL Draft Combine Results

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The NHL held its annual Draft Combine over the past week, with players able to speak with their potential teams and participate in fitness testing. The physical part of the week was held on Saturday (with a select few tests occurring the day before), with 85 prospects trying their best to show off their strengths in the gym.

Here are the results of the tests, thanks to NHL Central Scouting:

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Prospect Notes: Wright, Jiricek, Utunen

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The NHL Scouting Combine is underway for the first time since 2019–the last two years the event has been canceled due to COVID-19 concerns–and Shane Wright has all eyes on him as the potential (but not consensus) first-overall pick. Mike Morreale of NHL.com tweets that Wright will have interviews with 12 different teams, including the Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, and Arizona Coyotes, teams that will select in the top three later this summer.

While no sure thing to go first overall, it is unlikely that Wright drops much further than that meaning other teams with interviews booked don’t have a chance unless they found a way to trade up. The Devils at No. 2 have at least considered a move, should one present itself, though it still would need quite the return package after they moved up by way of the lottery.

  • David Jiricek, in the race for the top defenseman in this year’s draft, will not attend the combine according to Morreale. The young Czech just finished his World Championship run on Sunday (winning bronze) and now he won’t be able to meet with teams in person. Jiricek was fourth on NHL Central Scouting’s final ranking of international skaters, just behind Simon Nemec, the other player vying to be the first defenseman off the board this year.
  • Toni Utunen is one of the players whose draft rights will expire this week, and Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV reports that the Vancouver Canucks have no interest in signing him. The 22-year-old defenseman had 11 points in 59 games while playing in Finland’s Liiga this season. He will be an unrestricted free agent if not signed by June 1.

Snapshots: Flames Negotiations, Wright, Brossoit

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The Flames’ season may be over, but the work for their front office is only just beginning. Not only is the beating heart of their franchise, Johnny Gaudreau, a pending unrestricted free agent, but they also have potential future captain Matthew Tkachuk as an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent who is inching closer to his own unrestricted free agency. The next month is set to be one full of crucial negotiations for the Flames, and according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the team would like to begin those as soon as possible.

Friedman reports that the Flames will move “aggressively” to extend those two players, in order to have a quick understanding of “what the landscape is” in terms of their futures. The Flames can hardly be blamed for their urgency, given the importance of both Gaudreau and Tkachuk to everything they have been building. Flames GM Brad Treliving has previously said that he would “move heaven and earth” to retain Gaudreau, and one has to assume he will carry that same attitude towards retaining Tkachuk. But as is the case with most contract negotiations in the NHL, Treliving’s “heaven and earth” will likely take a backseat to the most important factor: dollars and cents.

Now, for some other bits of news from across the NHL:

  • Before free agency can begin, there is another major event on the NHL’s calendar that will need to be completed: the entry draft. We previously covered how it’s not a guarantee that Kingston Frontenacs center Shane Wright will go first overall to the Montreal Canadiens, and there is now another development regarding that connection. Friedman reported yesterday that the Canadiens’ brass led by Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes will meet face-to-face with Wright at the NHL combine. Just as making the first overall selection comes with a lot of opportunity so comes a lot of responsibility, and the interactions between the Canadiens and Wright could go a long way towards making the team feel more comfortable in his projection if he does end up the number-one pick.
  • Injuries proved fatal for the Golden Knights this past season, as the team missed the playoffs for the first time in their franchise’s history. One of the Golden Knights still dealing with an injury is goaltender Laurent Brossoit. Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reports that Brossoit had hip surgery and that the team is “hoping” that he will be available for the start of next season. With starter Robin Lehner already recovering from his own surgery and the late-season breakout of Logan Thompson in mind, it’s clear that Vegas’ future in net is anything but settled.

Prospect Notes: Lamb, Ruscheinski, Hubner

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It has been a discouraging offseason for the University of Minnesota. The program reached the Frozen Four this year, but somehow has been bleeding assets since the end of the season. Chaz Lucius (WPG) turned pro suddenly and unexpectedly, brother Cruz Lucius (2022) decommitted, and Tristan Broz (PIT), Ben Brinkman (DAL), and Grant Cruikshank all transferred out. The Gophers need reinforcements and have turned to a 2023 recruit for help. The Rink Live reports that New York Rangers prospect Brody Lamb has fast-forwarded his development plan to enroll at Minnesota this fall instead of next fall. The 18-year-old forward, who was drafted by the Rangers in the fourth round in 2021, had planned to return to the USHL’s Green Bay Gamblers for another season, but was willing to help out his college team sooner than expected. Lamb’s second-half surge helped to convince Minnesota that he was ready for the NCAA; Lamb finished his first full junior season with 41 points in 62 games. While he could use another year of junior and likely would have been a top-line forward for Green Bay in 2022-23, he will instead slot into a bottom-six role with the Gophers. Minnesota and New York alike hope this change is only positive for the young forward’s development.

  • After three years, former Montreal Canadiens prospect Kieran Ruscheisnki has finally found an NCAA home. The 2019 seventh-round pick announced that he has committed to none other than the newest addition to Division I hockey, Lindenwood University. The Habs took a shot on Ruscheinski as a raw defensive prospect due to size that you can’t teach; the 21-year-old stands 6’6″ and weighs in at 210 pounds, which will likely still go up under a collegiate strength and conditioning program. In three seasons with the BCHL’s Salmon Arm Gorillas, Ruscheisnki has not made many strides offensively, but has continued to improve his defensive game as he develops into a stay-at-home style of blue liner. Though these defensive types are rarely stars, Ruscheinski being a former NHL pick will be massive news at Lindenwood. The Lions now have an NHL draft pick on their team in their inaugural season, something that many far more established teams in Division I cannot say in most years.
  • 2022 NHL Draft-eligible defenseman Niklas Hubner is on the move. The German prospect’s current team, the DEL’s ERC Ingolstadt, has revealed that Hubner is not expected to be back next season as he plans to make the jump to North America. Hubner is not NCAA-eligible, having played professionally this season, but should be the target of CHL teams in the Import Draft. He made a strong case for himself to be selected in both drafts this season; Hubner recorded 27 points in 28 games for Ingolstadt’s U-20 team. He essentially forced the team’s hand, as Hubner was recalled to the top DEL squad due to that performance, playing in ten games and recording a point. Hubner also suited up for Germany at the U-18 World Juniors and his play this season could put him on the radar for the U-20 team at the rescheduled WJC this summer. Hubner may be a bit of a project pick with so little experience outside of Germany, but with good size and clear scoring ability the defenseman is at least an interesting project to undertake.

Draft Notes: Savoie, Morrison, Fisher, MacDonald

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The next time you see Matthew Savoie could be as walks on stage in Montreal at the 2022 NHL Draft. One of the top prospects in this years class, Savoie’s Winnipeg Ice are still alive in the WHL playoffs, but the skilled center has not been playing with them. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman reports that Savoie injury he suffered earlier in the series and is now considered unlikely to return this postseason. Pronman notes that the injury is not long-term and Savoie could hypothetically be back for the Memorial Cup next month, but down 3-1 to the Edmonton Oil Kings in the WHL semifinals, the Ice likely aren’t making it that far. Fortunately, Savoie has done more than enough to cement his spot as a top-ten prospect this year. Long considered one of top talents of the 2022 class, Savoie recorded 35 goals and 90 points in 65 games with Winnipeg this year and tacked on a dozen more points in ten playoff games to silence any doubters. He will hear his name called very early on July 7, whether he plays again before then or not.

  • No CHL team – or perhaps any team on the planet – is as hot as the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs right now. The top-seeded team is undefeated in the postseason, sweeping each of their first two series and picking up a win last night to go up 3-0 in their semifinal series. It seems a virtual lock that Hamilton will be OHL champs this year and the team to beat at the Memorial Cup. No one is happier about that than Logan Morrison. Passed over in the 2020 NHL Draft and ignored in the 2021 Draft after missing last season due to the OHL’s COVID shutdown, Morrison is making it impossible for teams to overlook him in his third and final draft go-round. The two-way center recorded 34 goals and 66 assists for 100 points in just 60 games this season with Hamilton, finishing sixth in the league in scoring and second in plus/minus at a whopping +44. The longer that Morrison and the Bulldogs play, the more eyes will be on the 19-year-old – and he is giving them something to watch. Morrison has a league-high 13 goals to go with 24 points and a +15 rating in only 11 postseason games thus far. He hope to take that hot streak right to draft day and be one of the rare third-year players to garner a high pick. TSN’s Craig Button recently ranked Morrison as the No. 86 prospect in the draft class, but at this rate the late third round could only be the floor for Morrison.
  • Almost every player selected in the NHL Draft comes from either a junior or professional league. However, there are always a sizeable selection of high school players taken and that trend has grown of late. Specifically, in recent years there have been more prep school players going straight to the NCAA the next season garnering looks in the early rounds. The New England Hockey Journal’s Mark Divver notes that a couple more could be coming this year out of Massachusetts. Defenseman Michael Fisher and forward Ben MacDonald have each been invited to the NHL Draft Combine next week, Divver reports. The two have no junior experience, yet have been identified as among the top 96 players worth inviting to the combine. Fisher, who played at St. Mark’s and recorded 50 points in 28 games this year, brings the sought-after combination of size and skill and is headed to Northeastern University next year to keep developing. MacDonald, who played at Noble & Greenough and notched 29 points in 22 games this season, will eventually join Harvard University, but is set to suit up with the BCHL’s West Kelowna Warriors next year. Both will be eager to take advantage of the increased exposure at the Combine and could earn an early selection in this year’s draft.

Prospect Notes: Chicago, Vegas, Karlsson

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Earlier today, Chicago Blackhawks General Manager Kyle Davidson indicated a desire to acquire a first-round pick in this year’s NHL Entry Draft, reports NBCSN Chicago’s Charlie Roumeliotis (link). Davidson said that while it’s definitely something he is looking at and hopes to be able to do, whether or not he will be able to make it happen is a different question. The rebuilding Blackhawks had already traded their first-round pick in this year’s draft to the Columbus Blue Jackets in the trade that sent defenseman Seth Jones from Columbus to Chicago this past offseason. That pick was originally top-two protected by Chicago, meaning that if they won one of the two draft lotteries, they would have been able to keep the pick, however they did not and Columbus receives Chicago’s sixth-overall selection in 2022.

This will be Davidson’s first season as GM of the Blackhawks after being officially hired into the role on March 1st. With the team having been in rebuild mode for a few seasons now, and sending the message that they expect it to continue with the trade of Brandon Hagel at this year’s trade deadline, Davidson’s next moves will be critical to showing what the plan is for the organization and how much longer he anticipates the rebuild to last. He has already acquired two future first-round picks from the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2023 and 2024 drafts in exchange for Hagel, which he could foreseeably use to acquire a pick in the 2022 draft.

  • Vancouver Canucks prospect Linus Karlsson was named the SHL’s Rookie of the Year for the 2021-22 season, tweets Rick Dhaliwal of The Athletic (link). In 52 games for Skelleftea this season, Karlsson posted a strong 26 goals and 20 assists to go with a plus-10 rating. Originally a third-round pick of the San Jose Sharks in 2018, Karlsson was traded to Vancouver in the deal that sent Jonathan Dahlen to San Jose in 2019. Now 22, Karlsson is still yet to sign his first NHL contract, and has until June 1st to do so, otherwise he will become an UFA. Still, as recently as March, Karlsson had been hoping to sign with Vancouver (link).
  • The Vegas Golden Knights will host a prospect development camp this year, says GM Kelly McCrimmon (link). This will be the first true development camp the team has held since 2019. McCrimmon said that the camp will begin on the Monday following the NHL Entry Draft, which will be held on Thursday, July 7 and Friday, July 8th in Montreal. This year’s camp should give Vegas a good look at not only the players they drafted in the 2022 draft, but also some insight into who might be able to compete for a roster spot in training camp. With Vegas near the league’s salary cap ceiling, finding affordable young talent within their system will be a key to success in the 2022-23 season.

NHL Announces 2022 Draft Lottery Odds

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With the conclusion of the 2022 regular season coming this afternoon after the Winnipeg Jets defeated the Seattle Kraken 4-3 in regulation, the entire league standings are finally settled, and so are the odds for the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery, which will take place on Tuesday, May 10th, at 6:30 pm ET. The odds, which increase in reverse order of the NHL standings, are as follows (link):

Montreal Canadiens – 18.5%
Arizona Coyotes – 13.5%
Seattle Kraken – 11.5%
Philadelphia Flyers – 9.5%
New Jersey Devils – 8.5%
Chicago Blackhawks* – 7.5%
Ottawa Senators – 6.5%
Detroit Red Wings – 6.0%
Buffalo Sabres – 5.0%
Anaheim Ducks – 3.5%
San Jose Sharks – 3.0%
Columbus Blue Jackets – 2.5%
New York Islanders – 2.0%
Winnipeg Jets – 1.5%
Vancouver Canucks – 0.5%
Vegas Golden Knights** – 0.5%

* As a result of the Seth Jones trade on July 23, 2021, Chicago will transfer their 2022 first-round pick to Columbus, unless it is a top-two pick, at which point they will transfer their 2023 first-round pick instead.

** As a result of the Jack Eichel trade on November 4, 2021, Vegas will transfer its 2022 first-round pick to Buffalo, unless it is a top-ten pick, at which point they will transfer their 2023 first-round pick instead.

As a reminder, the NHL announced changes to the rules for the operation of the draft lottery on March 23, 2021, which in effect limits the amount of spots certain teams may move up. Teams are not eligible to move up more than 10 spots in the lottery; so, only the eleven teams with the highest odds can receive the first-overall pick. For example, the San Jose Sharks have the potential to receive the first overall selection, however the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have the next-highest odds, cannot select any higher than second overall. In previous years, any team in the lottery was eligible to move up to the first, second, or third position.

Another change to the lottery this year will be that only two teams will be chosen in the lottery, unlike previous years when three were selected. Then, like previous years, the remaining teams will be awarded their selection in reverse order of the NHL standings. This change means that a team with the highest odds, this year Montreal, will be guaranteed a top-three selection, whereas they could drop to as low as fourth in previous lotteries.

Although the odds drop off steeply as the list goes on, the lottery is still worth paying attention to for fans of the lower teams. Sure, Montreal is much more likely to win one of the two lotteries than the Islanders or Jets, however previous teams with poor odds have prevailed, most notably including the 2017 Flyers and 2020 Rangers.

NHL GM Meetings Roundup: Salary Cap, LTIR, No Trade Clause, Russian Draft Picks, Officiating, Revenue

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With the conclusion of this year’s NHL GM Meetings, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly gathered for media availability earlier today to discuss the meetings, including their thoughts on certain hot topics, potential changes to rules, and the overall state of the game.

One change reported earlier was that the salary cap is expected to increase by $1MM next year to $82.5MM. Although the salary cap is expected to remain flat through 2024-25, Bettman clarified that a $1MM increase on the cap is still in-line with a flat cap. Albeit a small change, the extra space could stand to benefit some teams who are already dangerously close to the cap ceiling and project to be in the same position next year. Bettman did add that after 2024-25, he expects that the cap would increase more substantially.

  • On the much-discussed LTIR situation in the NHL, Bettman and Daly did not express much concern, a relay of the feelings of the 32 teams. Bettman did acknowledge the situation, but said that it was “not going to be addressed as a front-burner issue anytime soon.” In regards to teams who have players return right at the start of playoffs, a seemingly convenient occurrence, Daly clarified the NHL’s process of handling these issues, noting that the league, when a player is placed into LTIR, requests the projected date of return, and if that date is around the start of the playoffs, they do look deeper into it and may even use an independent medical expert to verify the proposed timetable.
  • Touching on no-trade and no-movement clauses in light of the Evgenii Dadonov non-trade, Daly said that the league has already had discussions with the NHLPA about the possibility of having a rule requiring all such clauses to be filed with both the NHL Central Registry and the NHLPA. Ultimately, a new software that the two sides could share to store and access the clauses, appeared to be an idea on the table for the league. To get the process started, Daly added that a draft letter agreement had been written and the league was planning on sharing that with the NHLPA today in hopes of jumpstarting negotiations.
  • When asked about any possible restrictions on Russian players in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft, Daly did not anticipate any restrictions, but did qualify that the state of the world could be much different at that time.
  • On the topic of officiating, Bettman explained that he thought the officiating meeting went well, with the topic of the meeting being merely an update, and that it was otherwise uneventful. Bettman also appeared surprised that anyone thought the meeting could be construed as contentious and did not share those beliefs when asked.
  • One last topic that many hockey fans may gloss over, is revenue. Bettman mentioned that the league expects revenue to once again hit the $5B mark this year, notwithstanding the attendance restrictions and movement of games in the Canadian markets in late 2021 and early 2022.

2022 NHL Draft Confirmed For Montreal

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The city of Montreal was set to host the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, but those plans were scuttled when the world was turned upside-down by the COVID-19 pandemic. Continued pandemic restrictions meant that the city was unable to hold the draft in 2021 as well, but things finally seemed to change when fans returned to the stands at NHL arenas and the city was awarded the 2022 NHL draft. But as the Canadiens were once more forced to play games behind closed doors this season, the possibility of the draft being moved out of Montreal once again became a very realistic thought. In his annual meeting with the media at the NHL All-Star Weekend, Commissioner Gary Bettman stated that the NHL “would consider” moving the draft out of Montreal if the pandemic restrictions were still in place.

This was a disheartening development for many in the city who were eager to see Montreal host its 27th NHL Draft, but it seems that those fears can now be laid to rest. According to Chris Johnston of TSN, speaking on TSN’s Insider Trading program,  the threat of the draft being moved out of Montreal again is “totally gone.” Johnston reports that the expectation is for the draft to be held as it was pre-pandemic, meaning with representatives from every NHL club on the draft floor and the hosting arena featuring a full-capacity crowd. NHL officials will “be heading to Montreal” next week to finalize all the details, but the bottom line is that it looks as if the vision of a draft in Montreal will finally be realized after a significant wait.

For Montreal as a market, this announcement can have particular significance because of the state of the Canadiens’ season. Despite their resurgence under coach Martin St. Louis, the team is still last in the NHL with 37 points. Should they stay in that place in the standings, they will have the highest odds of winning the #1 overall pick in the 2022 draft, and be guaranteed to be picking inside the top-3. For a hockey-mad market like Montreal, the Canadiens potentially being able to select a future franchise cornerstone like Shane Wright at a draft hosted inside the Bell Center is an exciting prospect and a nice consolation prize for a fanbase that has been through a largely miserable season.

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