Headlines

Go To MLB Trade Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Milan Lucic

Edmonton Oilers Would Have To Add “Sweetener” In Lucic-Eriksson Swap

at CDT | by 8 Comments

Although there has been talk of a potential trade between the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks about swapping the bad contracts of Milan Lucic and Loui Eriksson for several weeks, a new report by TSN’s Darren Dreger suggests on TSN’s Insider Trading that the deal could be a good fit for both teams, but if Edmonton wants to make the deal, they would have to add a “sweetener.”

The belief is that because Lucic has four years remaining on his deal at $6MM AAV, the Oilers would have to give up something as Eriksson’s deal has only three years remaining at $6MM himself. According to Edmonton Journal’s David Staples, both players could be amenable to a potential trade considering that Lucic holds a no-movement clause, while Eriksson has a no-trade clause. However, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that nothing has been presented to either player and while the discussion of this trade has been discussed in the media for weeks, trade talks are quite premature.

Lucic is from Vancouver and played his junior years there but there is no guarantee he would waive his no-movement clause. Eriksson, on the other hand, is easier to project as he knows Oilers’ new coach, Dave Tippett, who he played for in Dallas for three years and had success under him. And considering that Eriksson has had issues with Vancouver coach Travis Green, his no-trade clause likely wouldn’t be an issue.

However, Staples disagrees that Edmonton should have to add a sweetner, pointing out that Lucic still has value as a fourth-line option who is a tough guy that can fight and score a little. He’s only 31 and still has value in the league. Throw in the fact that Vancouver is loaded with young talent and few threatening players who can protect those players like Elias Pettersson, who took a number of cheap shots over the course of the season would be quite valuable to the Canucks.

Eriksson, on the other hand, is already 34 years old and isn’t an option as a fourth-line player as he lacks toughness and hasn’t produced much offense over the past three years (32 goals total). There has to be questions whether Eriksson can truly help Edmonton at all, making the trade questionable at best. Staples adds that at best, he might be a below-average third-line winger who can kill penalties, but is that really helping Edmonton? Regardless, unless one of those players can find a way to find their old selves, it’s unlikely either can truly help either franchise.

 

Buyout Watch: Most Likely Candidates As Buyout Window Nears

at CDT | by 6 Comments

At this time next week, there could already be a few notable additions to the impending unrestricted free agent class. The NHL’s buyout window is set to open on Saturday, June 15th, after which teams will have 15 days to buy out unwanted contracts before the month ends and free agency begins on July 1st. This year in particular, there seem to be a surplus of teams upset with their current salary cap position and itching to remove a contract from their books that has not yielded the expected results. Yet, at a cost of two-thirds of the remaining salary and double the remaining term (in most cases), as well as the side effects of pay and bonus structure, it may not always be the best route. The following are some of the top names that could be bought out later this month and the cost to do so:

Corey Perry, Anaheim Ducks

Contract Remaining: Two years, $8.625MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $2.625MM/$6.625MM/$2MM/$2MM

The most recent name to hit the buyout rumor mill, Perry’s contract is undoubtedly an albatross and it is difficult to see him getting back to the pace and production that initially warranted his high cap hit. A buyout would give the Ducks immediate relief this year and $2MM in years three and four is not bad. However, the 2020-21 cost is not ideal. However, it’s hard to see anyone trading for Perry’s contract with so many unknowns about his game, so this could be the only choice for Anaheim.

Dion Phaneuf, Los Angeles Kings

Contract Remaining: Two years, $7MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $2.917MM/$5.417MM/$1.417MM/$1.417MM

The Kings want to get younger and faster and want some cap space to improve. Moving Phaneuf accomplishes all of that, and L.A. has good blue line depth to fall back on in the short-term. Like Perry, this buyout hurts in year two, but is otherwise tolerable. The Kings will try to trade Phaneuf and may succeed, otherwise this is a likely buyout scenario.

Scott Darling, Carolina Hurricanes

Contract Remaining: Two years, $4.15MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $1.233MM/$2.333MM/$1.183MM/$1.183MM

One of the earliest reported buyout rumors was that of Darling, and for good reason. The former star backup has not panned out as a starter for Carolina, a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Final with a tandem of a UFA flier and a veteran waiver claim. The Hurricanes may not have any experienced goalies under contract for next season yet besides Darling, but that won’t stop them from moving on and going back to the free agent market or their talented pipeline for answers, especially with this very palatable buyout and few cap concerns.

Ryan Callahan, Tampa Bay Lightning

Contract Remaining: One year, $5.8MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $2.667MM/$1.567MM

Callahan won’t be in Tampa one way or another next season. The team is facing a difficult cap crunch and there’s no room for the veteran, who has played little role in recent years. A buyout doesn’t give the Bolts the full savings they’d hope for this upcoming season and a trade likely remains preferable, but Callahan’s stock is not high and a buyout remains the more likely resolution.

Valeri Nichushkin, Dallas Stars

Contract Remaining: One year, $2.95MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $700K/$450K

Nichushkin’s age makes his buyout fall under the second category of buyout wherein only one-third of the remaining salary is accounted for. As such, his buyout would mean almost nothing for Dallas’ cap calculations. The young winger failed to score a goal last season as a regular player and both sides would seemingly benefit from a split. It’s not certain that the Stars will move on, but should they choose to, a buyout is a painless option.

Brendan Smith, New York Rangers

Contract Remaining: Two years, $4.35MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $971K/$3.146MM/$1.146MM/$1.146MM

Smith has been a disaster in New York and certainly not the player that the Rangers saw perform well in the postseason as a deadline addition in 2016-17. It’s hard to see a fit for Smith moving forward, even more so than other unfriendly defense contracts like Marc Staal and Kevin Shattenkirk. It’s even more difficult to see him having any trade value, so the team would have to go the buyout route. It’s not a terrible option, but as frequently happens, the year one savings come back to bite with a hefty year two increase.

Karl Alzner, Montreal Canadiens

Contract Remaining: Three years, $4.625MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $1.069MM/$4.194MM/$2.194MM/$1.069MM/$1.069MM/$1.069MM

Alzner had one point in nine games with Montreal last season, which is enough to say he’s not in the Canadiens’ long-term plans. He could be on their books for a long time to come with a potential six-year buyout structure, but at a relatively low cost most years. Alzner needs a fresh start and it’s fair to assume that Montreal will give him one.

Milan Lucic, Edmonton Oilers

Contract Remaining: Four years, $6MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $3.625MM/$5.625MM/$4.125MM/$5.625MM/$625K/$625K/$625K/$625K

Loui Eriksson, Vancouver Canucks

Contract Remaining: Three years, $6MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $5.556MM/$5.556MM/$3.556MM/$556K/$556K/$556K

Lucic and Eriksson have been tied together by rumors all off-season and one more thing they share: poor buyout possibilities. As bad as Lucic’s contract is, based on his drop-off in performance, his buyout is still very expensive for four more years and then extends another four years beyond that. The Oilers would be better off continuing to search for some way to trade him, no matter how slim the chances. As for Eriksson, his front-loaded contract makes a buyout pointless. The Canucks would pay almost the same amount in each of the next two years as if he was still on the team, then would have the cap penalty for another four years after that. Vancouver and Edmonton are likely stuck with these players, unless of course they swap them for each other.

Trade Rumors: Trade Bait, Panarin, Condon

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

For everyone but the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues, the off-season is already in full swing and with the NHL Draft less than three weeks away, the rumor mill is starting to heat back up. TSN’s Frank Seravalli has updated his Trade Bait list and it features a whopping ten new names out of 25 total players. Leading the way among the newcomers is talented, young Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere has emerged as a candidate to move if the Flyers can land a top-six forward in exchange, as they look to be aggressive this off-season. Also new to the list are names included in the overturned Phil Kessel-to-Minnesota trade, Jack Johnson and Victor Rask, with Jason Zucker and Kessel now long-time fixtures. Another player tied to recent rumors making his trade bait debut is the Vancouver Canucks’ Loui Eriksson, who has been linked to former teammate Milan Lucic, also on the list, and the Edmonton Oilers, but could move in any number of possible deals. As the Florida Panthers look to shake up their roster in free agency, James Reimer and Mike Hoffman have made the list as possible cap space casualties. So too have Toronto Maple Leafs teammates Nazem Kadri and Mitch Marner, even though Seravalli himself agrees that a Marner trade is a long shot. With plenty of talent filling the early off-season trade bait board, it could be a busy summer for high-profile trades, some of which could begin even before the draft kicks off on June 21st.

  • A seemingly curious continued presence on the trade bait list is that of Artemi Panarin. It was one thing for Panarin to be atop the list as the trade deadline approached and the Columbus Blue Jackets were unsure whether or not they would sell the all-world forward. However, after keeping Panarin, an impending unrestricted free agent, it may seem that his trade value has now disappeared, since he is weeks away from hitting the open market. However, as a 27-year-old premiere free agent, both Panarin and his suitors will be interested in that eighth year of contract term that is only available to the incumbent team. As such, the Blue Jackets could look to squeeze the very last drops of value out of Panarin by trading his rights before the league year ends, allowing a new team to sign him to an eight-year extension rather than a seven-year free agent contract. While possible, and often valuable, acquiring UFA signing rights is not as frequent a move as one might expect. The last team to do so was the Florida Panthers in 2016, adding an expiring Keith Yandle for a a sixth-round pick and conditional fourth-round pick. That same year, the Arizona Coyotes did the same, bringing in Alex Goligoski on the tail end of his contract with the Dallas Stars for a fifth-round pick. Not since Ilya Bryzgalov in 2011 has a player’s UFA rights drawn more than a fourth-round pick at best, but Panarin is a unique player and Columbus could land a third-round pick or more in exchange for the opportunity to sign him to that one extra year – and to keep him from testing the market.
  • Unsurprisingly, the extension of goaltender Anders Nilsson in Ottawa has prompted speculation that the Senators will try to move overpaid third-string option Mike Condon. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that Condon’s “days are numbered” with the team, as there’s no room for him in Ottawa behind Nilsson and Craig Anderson and he’s not wanted in Belleville with Filip Gustavsson, Joey Daccord, and possibly Marcus Hogberg in the mix. Cap space is not a problem for the Senators, but Garrioch still believes they would prefer to trade Condon and all or part of his $2.4MM salary next season rather than buy him out at the cost of $400K next year and $1MM the year after. Garrioch can only make a case that perhaps some team with weak goalie depth would be interested in Condon as a strong AHL option next season, as the 29-year-old is unlikely to be considered a regular NHL option. Perhaps after the free agent goalie market shakes out in early July, the Senators will be able to find a partner who missed out on their targets and could use Condon’s services. Otherwise, a buyout does seem to be the more likely route.

Snapshots: Eriksson-Lucic, Markov, NWHL

at CDT | by 6 Comments

The rumor that just won’t go away early this off-season is a potential swap between Western Canada rivals Vancouver and Edmonton of Loui Eriksson for Milan Lucic. Originally thought to just be a hypothetical deal – one that readers were split over – it turns out that the possible exchange of bad contracts has actually been discussed. TSN’s Jason Gregor reports that sources within the Canucks organization say that GM Jim Benning and company did actually sit down with the Oilers to discuss a trade centered around the two former Boston Bruins. However, Gregor notes that these talks took place in April and May and does not specify whether new Edmonton GM Ken Holland has been involved in any of those discussions. On paper, there is a discrepancy between the term and contract structure of Lucic and Eriksson, making Eriksson the lesser of two bad contracts. Yet, Lucic has been slightly more productive and brings a consistent physical edge. Eriksson arguably has the higher ceiling though, if he is able to stay healthy. Any deal between the two sides would likely have to provide an additional benefit to the Canucks, beyond just bringing home the Vancouver native Lucic, likely in the form of a pick or prospect. But the idea that the two sides have actually had talks about a trade takes this rumor from a convenient hypothetical talking point to an actual trade that could, and may even be likely, to go down this summer.

  • A rumor that did go away has surprisingly resurfaced. TSN’s Andrew Zadarnowski reports that former Montreal Canadiens defenseman Andrei Markov is drawing considerable attention on the open market. Markov, 40, is a free agent after his two-year deal with the KHL’s Ak Bars Kazan expired and he is considering all of his options. No sooner did Markov leave for the KHL than did word get out that he was eyeing an NHL return, but nothing came of it. Now, Zadarnowski states that he has already received three NHL offers, as well as a KHL offer, while Kazan has publicly stated that they would be open to re-signing the veteran leader. The NHL interest may come as a surprise, but Markov has stayed productive even in his older age, recording 47 points over two seasons in the KHL and 36 points in 62 games in his final season with Montreal in 2016-17. Surely no team in North America is willing to offer Markov a multi-year deal at age 40, but a one-year flier may work out well in the right situation.
  • “Unless there is a change of heart soon”, don’t count on women’s professional hockey in Canada in 2019-20. After the Canadian Women’s Hockey League folded earlier this spring, the National Women’s Hockey League announced a planed expansion into the Canadian market with teams in Toronto and Montreal. However, with 200 of the game’s best female players on strike, the Associated Press reports that the NWHL is likely to hold off on expansion talks until next year. The league will continue operating with five American teams and will keep working toward a resolution that is best for the game of women’s hockey.

Oilers Have Considered Buying Out Milan Lucic

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Prior to the hiring of Ken Holland as GM, the Oilers had been considering the possibility of buying out winger Milan Lucic’s contract this summer, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman in his latest 31 Thoughts column.  On the surface, this seems like a reasonable idea but given the front-loaded, bonus-laden structure of the contract, many had viewed his deal as virtually buyout-proof.  Courtesy of CapFriendly, here is how the breakdown of a buyout would go:

2019-20: $3.625MM
2020-21: $5.625MM
2021-22: $4.125MM
2022-23: $5.625MM
2023-24: $625K
2024-25: $625K
2025-26: $625K
2026-27: $625K

Considering that Lucic carries a $6MM cap hit, the savings would be minimal.  While they could certainly use the $2.375MM in extra space for next season, the fact that they wouldn’t save enough cap room in two of the next three years to roster someone making the league minimum makes going that route a short-term solution at best.

In an ideal world, finding a suitable trade for Lucic would be the best case scenario, as long as the incentive they provide to take on the contract isn’t too steep.  Friedman notes that they tried to do so last summer but that their price was unrealistic.  Considering that his output dipped even more this past season (6-14-20 in 79 games), Holland’s tune may be a bit different now compared to Peter Chiarelli a year ago.

While it’s true that sending Lucic to the AHL would yield $1.075MM in cap savings (it would go up by $50K in 2021-22), his no-move clause makes that a challenge as he could very easily invoke that to block a demotion.  Assuming he’s unwilling to go to the minors, that makes a trade or a buyout the only options to remove him from the roster and while a buyout would give them a bit more breathing room for 2019-20, it would come at a pretty significant cost after that.  As a result, expect to hear Lucic bandied about in trade discussion in the weeks to come.

Poll: Who Wins A Loui Eriksson-Milan Lucic Swap?

at CDT | by 9 Comments

July 1st, 2016 is a day that a handful of NHL teams would like to forget. As the free agent market opened, mistakes were made, as they usually are, but this year in particular took a heavy toll. David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo: six contracts, each with a term of five or more years, totaling $220MM. The contracts all looked bad right away and now three years later, all six players have been massive disappointments. None of those six teams – the Bruins, Canucks, Islanders, Oilers, Red Wings, and Sabres – have been able to shed those cumbersome contracts to this point either. As with most bad pacts, the teams must either give away something of value or take on a similarly poor contract to move the player. Entering a new off-season, patience is running out on most, if not all, of these players and it seems that long-awaited moves could be on the horizon.

But what if two of these teams simply decided to swap a 2016 mistake? It wouldn’t do much to help with cap compliance, but it would at least allow for the players to get a fresh start and perhaps play at a level closer to what was expected when their contracts were signed. Over the past few days, two players on this unfortunate list have hinted that they may want to leave as much as their teams would like to be rid of them. There seems to be a fit to make a deal as well. As a result, rumors have emerged that Loui Eriksson and Milan Lucic could be traded for one another.

Eriksson, coming off his worst season since he was a rookie in 2006-07, told a Swedish newspaper that he and head coach Travis Green “do not get on 100%”. As translated by The Province’s Patrick Johnston, Eriksson goes on to say that there is a lack of trust from Green, as reflected my a major drop-off in ice time, as well as a lack of opportunity when he is on the ice, as Eriksson feels he has been pigeon-holed into a defensive role. Still a capable two-way winger, Eriksson believes in his ability and promises to “keep fighting”, but is clearly frustrated in Vancouver.

Meanwhile, Lucic stopped just short of saying he would rather be playing for the Canucks right now during an appearance on Sportsnet 650 in Vancouver. When asked if he would welcome a move to his hometown, Lucic’s answer was pretty transparent:

That’s definitely something I wouldn’t rule out. It’s obviously something that potentially could happen. Like you said, things haven’t gone that well for me here with the Oilers. Especially the last year and a half. So a new GM, new coach, which haven’t even been named yet, coming in. You don’t even know what their plan is moving forward, and stuff like that. Like I said, it’s definitely something that could potentially happen… I think the Canucks right now are a very exciting team. I love what (Vancouver GM Jim Benning) has done as far as building the team within through the draft and developing players. He’s done a great job of that. I think Travis has done a really good job as well from a coaching stand point. Like I said, it’s an exciting team and it’s a growing team and you never know what the future has in store for you.

So, Lucic would seemingly like to be in Vancouver and Eriksson would seemingly like to be anywhere else. Benning has never been afraid to shake things up in Vancouver, while the Oilers are close to hiring a new GM, who will almost certainly want to shake things up. This deal, while only a convenient rumor, could happen. But is a one-for-one trade a fair swap? From a production and salary cap standpoint, it’s pretty close between these former Boston Bruins teammates.

Both Eriksson and Lucic carry a $6MM cap hit on their current contracts, but Lucic is signed for four more years versus only three for Eriksson. This is not inconsequential, as another year hurts even more on a bad contract as it additionally impacts potential buyout calculations. Lucic additionally has greater trade protection built into his deal, a problem if he continues to play poorly. The bulk of Eriksson’s actual salary has also largely been paid out in signing bonuses over the past few years, making him more affordable from a payroll standpoint. So while Lucic and Eriksson are even in terms of yearly cap calculations, Eriksson’s contract is friendlier. It is worth considering though that Eriksson, 33, has more tread on his tires than Lucic, 30, and could be less effective in year three than Lucic is in year four.

Lucic has the slight edge in terms of performance, as he has been the least bad of the pair. To his credit, Lucic has been extremely durable during his time in Edmonton, missing only three games over three seasons. In 243 games, the power forward has 104 points, including 39 goals. While his offensive numbers pale in comparison to his early years of production, he has maintained his physical style of play, logging 715 hits. In comparison, Eriksson has struggled to stay healthy with Vancouver. Formerly a tough, two-way winger, Eriksson has missed 50 games in his Canucks tenure and his injury history shows in his play style, which has become far less tenacious. Nevertheless, Eriksson has accumulated 76 points in 196 games, including at least 10 goals each season. It’s not much, but it’s a clip that would put Eriksson only ten points behind Lucic if he had played the same number of games. It’s worth noting that the overall picture looks poor for Eriksson, but he still shows flashes of offensive ability from time to time that Lucic does not.

Needless to say, neither Lucic nor Eriksson are players that any team would be excited to add at this point in time. But if the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks were to make this trade straight-up, would it be a fair deal? The Canucks land a hometown product who is younger and has been slightly more productive and far more durable over the past few years, while the Oilers get back a player that costs less, both in reality and against the cap, in the long-term and has a more versatile game and could have more upside. What do you think?

West Notes: Forsling, Lucic, Pouliot

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Blackhawks defenseman Gustav Forsling had a bit of a tough season.  He missed time with three separate injuries and didn’t have a significant role when he was in the lineup, averaging a little over 17 minutes a night.  With several quality defense prospects on the horizon as well as their other blueliners on the roster, John Dietz of the Daily Herald suggests that the 22-year-old could make sense as potential trade bait this summer.

Consistency has been an issue for Forsling thus far.  Blackhawks coach Jeremy Colliton called him their best defender some nights but there were others where he was a non-factor.  The potential is still there for him to become an impact player and he certainly would carry some trade value around the league.  Moving him could allow someone like Slater Koekkoek (or Henri Jokiharju, though he plays the other side) to move into a regular spot for next season while bringing in a decent piece, presumably up front.  Forsling will be a restricted free agent this summer and is owed a qualifying offer of just over $874K in June.

Elsewhere out West:

  • Oilers winger Milan Lucic is dealing with a lower-body injury that was sustained just before the end of the season, reports TSN’s Ryan Rishaug (Twitter link). Lucic is currently in a cast and will be for a couple more weeks although it’s not expected to significantly affect his offseason conditioning while he is expected to be ready for training camp.  Lucic has four years left on his contract after this one and is owed a $3MM bonus in July.
  • The Canucks aren’t likely to bring defenseman Derrick Pouliot back next season, notes Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma. The 25-year-old took a step back in 2018-19 and with the team adding youngsters Josh Teves and Brogan Rafferty late in the year plus having several other young blueliners in the mix for a roster spot, freeing up a spot for one of them would be preferable to keeping Pouliot, who had a sparing role this season, around.  He’s slated to be a restricted free agent this summer with a $1.1MM qualifying offer so if a team believes he’s worth a closer look, Vancouver could be able to trade him between now and June’s qualifying offer deadline.

Canucks’ Loui Eriksson Made A Healthy Scratch

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Loui Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has been close to disastrous, but it has now reached a new low. In his third season and with 184 games with the Canucks under his belt, Eriksson has been made a healthy scratch for tonight’s home game against the New York Rangers, reports TSN’s Jason Brough. It is the first time in his Canucks career that Eriksson has been scratched.

To be fair, Eriksson had it coming. While a respected veteran and capable two-way forward, his 22 points through 69 games this season marks a career-low in per-game production, although a similar pace to his first two seasons in Vancouver. Making those disappointing offensive totals all the worse is how much Eriksson is paid to produce them. One of a series of terrible contract calls made in the 2016 off-season (see: Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, David Backes, Kyle Okposo, Danny DeKeyser), the Canucks signed Eriksson to a six-year, $36MM contract weeks before his 31st birthday. Based on that $6MM cap hit, Eriksson has been the sixth-worst cost-per-point value among forwards with 60+ games played this season. Between poor play and chronic injury issues, the Canucks have yet to see any semblance of value from the Eriksson deal through three seasons, yet they have three seasons left to go.

The decision by head coach Travis Green could be the first step toward a more permanent split between the team and player. Discussing the move, Green told the media “it’s not like I’m sitting here saying that Loui’s played terrible, but has he done enough where I can’t take him out of the lineup?” If the coaching staff and front office have lost trust in Eriksson’s ability to at least be a positive impact on the lineup, they may decide to do what it takes to move on. The Canucks are not in bad shape in regards to the salary cap, but have proven time and time again that they feel they are closer to being a contender than a rebuild and may want to dump a bad salary in hopes of adding to the roster this off-season. While Eriksson’s contract would be hard to move, Vancouver could sweeten the deal with a pick or prospect or take back another bad contract that they feel would be a better fit. The buyout route is likely not an option; the structure of Eriksson’s contract would do little to help alleviate costs. A buyout this summer would only save the team $444K in each of the next two seasons, at the cost of $556K against the cap for three years after the deal would have expired. As such, the Canucks may have to get creative to get rid of Eriksson. They have lived with his under-performing play to this point, but the healthy scratch has drawn a new line in the sand and both sides may want to end their current relationship.

Deadline Primer: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 7 Comments

With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue to examine the Pacific Division, here is a look at the Edmonton Oilers.

The Edmonton Oilers have to be buyers, right? While it’s true that the team rostering Connor McDavid missing the playoffs any year, nevertheless two years in a row, is unacceptable, the reality is that much of the trade deadline pressure on the Oilers fell squarely on GM Peter Chiarelli and his job security. Ever since Chiarelli was relieved of his duties, it’s been awfully quiet on the rumor mill out of to Edmonton. It’s not clear how much authority interim GM Keith Gretzky has, but Gretzky is a draft guru anyway who is likely more comfortable adding picks and prospects at the deadline than acquiring rental help.

The fact of the matter is that – even with the front office turnover – Edmonton remains in the thick of the Western Conference wild card race, tied with the Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, and Anaheim Ducks with 51 points and just three points back of the Vancouver Canucks for the final playoff spot. As currently constituted, McDavid and the Oilers may not be favorites to make the postseason, but have a chance. There are many holes in the lineup and not much cap space with which to fill them at the deadline, but the Oilers could certainly push for a wild card spot if the team was able to add some pieces. But after that, they stand little chance of advancing past the first round. The team thus faces a decision of whether they should make trades, for rentals or long-term additions, without a new GM to guide them, to simply make an appearance in the postseason or instead make use of several pending free agents and add some draft capital and prospects to build with – or trade with – once the team has a more clear picture of their roster building plans, even if it hurts their playoff odds.

If the Oilers miss the playoffs again, it will hurt. However, this is a team that simply cannot afford to make any more trade mistakes. Expect Edmonton to play it safe and sell off their expiring contracts. Perhaps they’ll even make a minor hockey trade or two. The risks simply outweigh the benefits when it comes to being a buyer at the deadline this season. McDavid and company will be back in the postseason soon enough, but selling out to do so this year would be a mistake. It seems Gretzky and the interim regime understand that, but you never quite know in Edmonton.

Record

23-25-5, sixth in the Pacific Division

Deadline Status

Moderate Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$4.27MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 48/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, NYI 3rd, EDM 4th, EDM 6th, EDM 7th
2020: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 3rd, EDM 4th, EDM 5th, EDM 6th

Trade Chips

The whole point of Edmonton being a seller and not a buyer at the deadline is to play it safe until a new GM is at the helm. As such, don’t expect the team to trade established contributors like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Darnell Nurse. It also seems unlikely, despite the hype, that draft-minded Gretzky will move 2016 fourth overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi unless he is blown away by an offer. The Oilers have plenty of impending free agents or short-term players that could be of interest to buyers that they don’t need to think big right now.

The one notable name who the Oilers will surely shop is goaltender Cam Talbot. Talbot, 29, had been supplanted as the starter this season by Mikko Koskinen, who Chiarelli signed to an extension on his way out the door. With Koskinen locked up, a handful of promising prospects in the pipeline, and an intriguing free agent market for goalies this summer, Talbot’s time in Edmonton is all but over, despite whispers they could re-sign him. Talbot could wind up being the top keeper on the trade market in the days leading up to the deadline, if Sergei Bobrovsky, Jimmy Howard, and Semyon Varlamov are not moved by their respective teams. Talbot should command a nice return for the Oilers, even in a down year. Third-string journeyman Al Montoya could also be up for grabs.

Up front, Edmonton has gotten little production outside of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Leon Draisaitl this season, but could find takers for several role players. Alex Chiasson could draw the most interest; the 28-year-old continues to be one of the more underrated players in the NHL and is on pace for a career-high 42 points while playing on a minimum contract. However, Chiasson has been a nice fit for the Oilers this season and it would not be a surprise if the team held on to him through the deadline, both as an “own rental” and in hopes of re-signing him. They likely aren’t as attached to a free agent addition that hasn’t worked out: Tobias Rieder. The impending restricted free agent is a talented and versatile forward, but hasn’t shown it in Edmonton. He has yet to score a goal this season and has just nine assists to show for 39 games. The Oilers surely won’t be qualifying Rieder anyway and will look to move him for the best offer. Another skilled player who hasn’t played well in Edmonton is Ryan Spooner, who recently cleared waivers and has been buried in the minors. If a team is willing to take on Spooner’s $3.1MM salary next season, the Oilers will likely give him away. Honestly, most of Edmonton’s forwards have fallen short of expectations to the point that the team would gladly move them for a reasonable price. RFA Ty Rattie, UFA Brad Malone, and even Zack Kassian and Kyle Brodziak, who have another year remaining on their contracts, could be trade bait. Of course, if anyone is willing to take the albatross that is Milan Lucic’s contract, the Oilers would jump at that chance. That obviously remains a long shot, though.

On the back end, there are fewer options for Edmonton to move, but value exists. Despite the fifth-worst goals against per game and second-worst penalty kill in the NHL, the Oilers have a defense corps that they like, led by Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, and Adam Larsson. Kris Russell and newly-acquired Brandon Manning are also signed beyond this season and are unlikely to move. Instead, UFA’s Alexander Petrovic – who the Oilers only traded for last month – and Kevin Gravel could be nice depth additions for contenders and Edmonton would be willing to give up. They could also entertain offers for Matt Benning, who has one year remaining on an affordable deal. Ethan Bear is a name that keeps showing up in trade rumors; it could be that the Oilers don’t see a fit for the young puck-mover and try to move him in a hockey trade for another young piece.

Five Players To Watch For: G Cam Talbot, F Tobias Rieder, D Kevin Gravel, F Zack Kassian, D Ethan Bear

Team Needs

1) Young Forwards: When the majority of a team’s forwards can be listed as trade possibilities, it’s time for an overhaul. Outside of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, and for their sake Puljujarvi, there are no other forwards currently on the Oilers roster who should compete for top-nine roles next season. Standout AHLers Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, and Cooper Marody will be given the opportunity to win full-time roles next year, but Edmonton could stand to add some competition. In trading away a valuable piece like Talbot or Spooner or swapping out another young player like Bear, the Oilers should target some young forwards who could challenge for NHL roles next season.

2) Draft Picks: The Oilers don’t want to be in a rebuild any more and, with arguably the best player on the planet on their roster, who can blame them. However, if Edmonton wants to trade for veteran difference-makers this off-season, it helps to have some trade capital. The pipeline is currently shallow and the NHL roster is largely devoid of upside outside of untouchables. Whether they flip the picks they obtain from these small rental deals to make a bigger trade or simply use them to draft replacements for the current prospects they deal away, the Oilers could use some more picks. They currently have just six selections in the upcoming draft and only two in the top 75.

3) Top Pair Defenseman: Again, the smart thing for the Oilers to do at the deadline is play it safe. They have far greater needs than just young forwards and draft picks, including a reliable goaltender, top-six wingers, and – their greatest need – another elite puck-moving defenseman, but they can be handled in the off-season by the new GM. However, if a reasonable offer comes their way that fills one of these needs, particularly the defender, it makes sense to entertain it. Edmonton may have seven veteran defenseman signed through next season, not including some promising prospects, but a top-pair defenseman remains one of their biggest needs. The Oilers get little production from the blue line outside of Nurse and Klefbom, neither of whom are racking up impressive points either. With names like Dougie Hamilton, Justin Faulk, and Alec Martinez floating around, the Oilers just need to keep their options open.

 

Pacific Notes: Oilers Depth, Vilardi, Edler

at CDT | by 3 Comments

The Edmonton Oilers looked to be a team on the rise after Ken Hitchcock took over coaching duties back on Nov. 20. The team went on a 9-2-2 run and looked to be heading to the top of the Pacific Division. However, suddenly after a three-game losing streak and a tough loss to the NHL’s best team in the Tampa Bay Lightning, many questions are being raised whether the team has enough offense to compete with the Lightning or other top teams in the league.

In fact, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector writes that there is practically no depth on this team as the Oilers are fielding two lines that can score and another two that aren’t posing any offensive threat at all. Only six forwards have more than 10 points and only four of them have 20 points or more. Unfortunately for the team, the Oilers have invested a lot of money unwisely as it’s well known that the team is paying Milan Lucic $6MM and he has totaled just one goal and seven points this year. Ryan Spooner, who is making $3.1MM, has scored just two goals and five points between Edmonton and the New York Rangers, while Tobias Rieder hasn’t scored a goal yet at his $2MM contract.

The scribe adds that the team needs that depth scoring even if they have to find it in Bakersfield. However, at the moment, the team is relying more and more on their top players. Connor McDavid played 23:27 on Saturday against Tampa Bay, which is too much.

  • The Los Angeles Kings have had quite a bit to worry about when it comes to prospect Gabe Vilardi, who was cut from Canada’s World Junior roster last week as he still remains out with a back injury. The 19-year-old has played a total of 36 games in the past season and a half, 32 with the Kingston Frontenacs of the OHL last season and four with the AHL’s Ontario Reign in a conditioning stint this year. While Vilardi is expected to return to the OHL as soon as he’s healthy enough, there is concern about his development as well as whether he can get healthy, according to Josh Cooper of The Athletic (subscription required). General manager Rob Blake’s main concern is his health. “We’re more concerned about getting him healthy,” Blake said. “I’m not looking at the other part of that. We want to make sure he gets healthy first.”
  • TSN’s Jason Brough writes that the Vancouver Canucks need to start thinking about moving some of their defensemen, especially defensive blueliner Alexander Edler. The veteran has been playing big minutes for Vancouver as he averages 22:46 of ATOI and played 27:30 in Saturday’s game against Winnipeg. The scribe writes that the team needs to convince Edler to waive his no trade clause, so the team get some assets for him and then maybe re-sign him for next year to help work with the incoming youth.

Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

scroll to top