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Matt Duchene

Columbus Will Not Move Artemi Panarin For Draft Picks

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Though it may have been obvious from their acquisition of Matt Duchene earlier today, the Columbus Blue Jackets aren’t going to give away Artemi Panarin at the deadline for just anything. After swinging a deal to bring in the Ottawa Senators captain, speculation erupted over what it meant for fellow pending free agent Panarin who has been drawing interest from all over the league. GM Jarmo Kekalainen explained exactly how this affects (or fails to affect) the Panarin situation to Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch:

I don’t think this affects that at all. We said right from the start and I think we have stayed consistent with what we’ve said about Panarin. We’re not going to trade Panarin just for draft picks. We’re going to keep our eyes and ears open on what the marketplace looks like. That’s what we have said right from the start. But it would have to be a deal that we can’t refuse. It would have to make sense now and into the future. 

The Blue Jackets are obviously trying to win right now and were willing to sacrifice a substantial package of assets to land Duchene. The former Senator was clear that he hasn’t yet agreed to or even talked about an extension with Columbus and is instead just focused on getting the team to the playoffs. To that end, the Blue Jackets are at risk of losing three top free agents this summer including Duchene, Panarin and goaltender Sergei Bobrovksy.

Columbus has been starved for a winner for some time as the organization is still looking for their first playoff series win in franchise history. Today’s acquisition was with that in mind, and so would be any Panarin trade. The deal would have to make the Blue Jackets better—or at least just as good—now, not just into the future. That’s a tall order when it comes to replacing one of the premiere offensive talents in the entire league. Columbus is currently sitting just out of the playoff picture but still believe they have a chance to do some damage in the Metropolitan Division.

Interestingly, another name that has popped up in trade talks over the last few weeks finds himself in the press box tonight. Alexander Wennberg has been made a healthy scratch with Duchene in the lineup, meaning his $4.9MM cap hit will be sitting and watching tonight’s action. Wennberg has struggled this season with just two goals and 23 points through 59 games, but still has four more years on his current deal. Ryan Murray meanwhile has been moved to injured reserve, leading to more speculation that the Blue Jackets could add a piece on defense as well.

Columbus Blue Jackets Acquire Matt Duchene

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The Matt Duchene era in Ottawa is over.  The Columbus Blue Jackets have acquired Duchene and minor league defenseman Julius Bergman from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for a package including a 2019 first-round pick (top-3 protected) and prospects Vitaly Abramov and Jonathan Davidsson. While extension talks have not yet occurred between the Blue Jackets and Duchene, the team would give up an additional first-round selection in 2020 if he re-signs. The two teams play each other tonight in Ottawa.

This deal has huge implications for not only the two teams involved, but the entire league that was waiting for a price to be set on the very best rentals available at this year’s deadline. Duchene was one of three players considered the top tier of the market, along with former teammate Mark Stone and, coincidentally new teammate Artemi Panarin. The fact that the speedy center is heading to Columbus complicates matters, given that it now seems unlikely that the Blue Jackets would move on from Panarin after adding such a big name.

In fact, there may be reason for Columbus to add even more in the coming days. Despite not having seen playoff hockey since the 2013-14 season, Duchene remains an incredible talent that can take over a game with his speed and skill. The Blue Jackets, who currently sit one point behind the Carolina Hurricanes for the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, likely see this opportunity as their best chance to finally win a playoff series, something the franchise has still never accomplished. The Metropolitan Division playoff spots are even still up for grabs, with third place Pittsburgh holding just a two-point lead on Columbus heading into tonight’s action.

Still, it’s a hefty price to pay for a player who is having a career year and will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Duchene has 58 points through 50 games and will likely break his previous highs of 30 goals and 70 points, but is completely unproven in the postseason. In a ten year NHL career, Duchene has played just eight playoff contests and has never scored a playoff goal.

Bergman, who also comes to Columbus in the deal is unlikely to spend much time in the organization. There have been reports recently that the Swedish defenseman will be heading back to the SHL after the 2018-19 season when his entry-level contract expires. The Senators needed to keep the number of contracts equal given their other upcoming moves and the fact that they are currently sitting just two spots under the 50-contract threshold.

The Blue Jackets did however avoid giving up the very best of their prospects. While Abramov is armed with incredible puck skills (perhaps among the best in the world), he is undersized and has weaknesses throughout his game. In 52 games with the Cleveland Monsters this season the 20-year old winger has 22 points, but also still holds a development ceiling of a first-line NHL player. If Ottawa can get him there they’ll have a star on their hands, but that’s far from guaranteed at this point.

Davidsson meanwhile is a sixth-round pick who has found real success in Sweden since being drafted. The 21-year old forward recorded 31 points in a breakout season in 2017-18, and has 20 through 35 games for Djurgardens this season while playing a bigger role. His ceiling may not be quite as high as Abramov’s, but there is a good chance that Davidsson will play NHL games at some point in the near future.

If you only look at this trade, it looks like a win for the Senators. Selling off an expiring asset during a lost season for potentially four valuable assets is a good way to build up your system and compete in the future. Unfortunately, Duchene leaves Ottawa with quite a bit of baggage that cannot be ignored. The Senators gave up a ton of value to acquire him from the Colorado Avalanche in the fall of 2017, sending out Kyle Turris, Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, a third-round pick and, most notably, an unprotected first-round selection.

That first-round pick did have a condition that the Senators could give up their top selection in either 2018 or 2019, but after finishing fourth in the draft lottery and staring at Brady Tkachuk on the board, Ottawa decided to push it to this season. The hope was that with some added youth and health the team would not find itself at the bottom of the standings again. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened and Ottawa now sits in last place in the entire NHL and has the best shot at first overall in June’s draft. Colorado now owns that pick, meaning the Senators may very well have given up Jack Hughes in order to acquire Duchene for less than two seasons.

The Senators were never going to recoup full value for Duchene, but they do still have a chance to make this deadline a success. With this return plus potentially even more in trades for Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel, the team can start their rebuild in full and hand the keys to a new wave of talent. The team already recalled Drake Batherson and Logan Brown today, and will still have at least three picks in the first two rounds in June.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

 

Senators, Devils Hold Top Trade Candidates Out Of Lineup

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The match-up between the Ottawa Senators and New Jersey Devils tonight could have somewhat of a preseason feel. When two of the NHL’s three worst teams face off, they will do so without many of their top players. Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, and Ryan Dzingel will not dress for Ottawa and neither will Marcus Johansson and Ben Lovejoy for New Jersey.

Both teams have confirmed that the scratches are “precautionary”, but seeing as all five are impending unrestricted free agents rumored to be on the trade block with the NHL Trade Deadline just four days away, it is easy to read between the lines. While the likes of Duchene and Johansson have been confirmed as on the market and likely to be traded, speculation is set to soar about Stone and Dzingel, as well as Lovejoy. Case in point: TSN’s Frank Seravalli has moved Stone up to No. 1 on the TSN Trade Bait List following this news, stating that “sitting out signals his apparent decision to forego a contract extension with the Senators in favour of testing the open market.” Stone and Duchene are now occupying the top two spots on the list, with Dzingel at No. 9. For New Jersey, Johansson comes in at No. 14 and Lovejoy at No. 41. Tonight’s lineup decisions indicate all five could be headed elsewhere in the coming days.

Fans in attendance tonight will likely be disappointed by the lack of star power, but not as much as the scouts in attendance. TSN’s Gord Miller notes that the many scouts still evaluating Ottawa’s big three – who make up 41% of their scoring this season – will likely be frustrated by the absence of not just Duchene, who sat out last game, but also Stone and Dzingel. This includes the Winnipeg Jets, who have been frequently linked to the Senators’ stars. NJ.com’s Chris Ryan reports that the Jets have three scouts in attendance, yet no Ottawa stars to observe. Ryan states that ten teams have scouts in attendance and some were likely there to see Johansson and/or Lovejoy as well, but instead will only see sellers protecting their assets.

Ottawa Senators Recall Two Forwards

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With the Ottawa Senators expected to keep at least Matt Duchene out of the lineup tonight against the New Jersey Devils, two forwards have been recalled from the minor leagues. Filip Chlapik and Darren Archibald have both been added to the roster giving the team 14 forwards for the time being. The team obviously has three major trade chips up front in Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel, but won’t be able to sit them all without suiting up seven defensemen.

If the team does insert Chlapik into the lineup it would be a great opportunity to show that he can be a full-time part of the team going forward. The 21-year old played 20 games for the team last season and recorded four points, but has been limited to minor league duty this year. The 6’2″ forward has 30 points in 41 games for the Belleville Senators and is developing nicely after being picked with the 48th overall selection in 2015.

Archibald meanwhile is just trying to get any chance at the NHL level before it’s too late. The 29-year old forward spent years in the Vancouver Canucks system toiling in the minor leagues, but arrived in Ottawa as part of the Anders Nilsson trade earlier this season. A mix of skill and physicality, he has just 14 points in 54 career NHL games and is looking for his first point for Ottawa.

Deadline Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

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With the trade deadline now less than a week away, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Next to the Ottawa Senators, no team is under more pressure at the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline than the Columbus Blue Jackets. The team has decisions to make on two priority free agents, both of whom appear primed to test the off-season market, in Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Despite two major players who they may opt to sell, the Blue Jackets also plan to be net buyers at the deadline, giving them a massive presence on both sides of the trade market.

Believe it or not, Columbus is still in search of their first playoff round win in franchise history. The 2000 expansion team has had bad luck in the postseason, so their moves at the deadline will be made with some consideration for the future, but mostly in taking advantage of the present. While the Blue Jackets are within striking distance of the Washington Capitals for second-place in the Metropolitan Division and home ice advantage in the first round, they also are not a lock for a playoff spot. Columbus is currently tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens in the divisional and wild card races with just one game in hand and are at risk of falling behind the surging Carolina Hurricanes, who are two points back. The team cannot afford to come out of the trade deadline with the same or worse caliber of roster, even if they do trade Panarin or Bobrovsky. Expect some fireworks from the Blue Jackets this week.

Record

33-22-3, third in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$28.77MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: CLB 1st, CLB 3rd, CLB 4th, CLB 7th
2020: CLB 1st, CLB 2nd, CLB 4th, CLB 5th, CLB 6th, CLB 7th

Trade Chips

There is no trade chip on the block right now that is more valuable than superstar winger Artemi Panarin. Panarin, 27, leads the Blue Jackets in scoring by a wide margin with 67 points through 56 games, which is also good enough for a top-20 mark in the NHL. He is currently on pace for a career-high 96 points, which would be his second straight season of scoring at better than a point-per-game pace and would mark four straight years with 70+ points. Panarin is simply one of the most dangerous offensive players in hockey and his addition would be a complete game-changer for any contender. The question is whether or not Columbus chooses to use him as their “own rental” rather than trade him. It has been reported that Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen will not trade Panarin if the cost to replace him by adding another forward or two will leave the team with little to show for the initial trade. If Columbus can get through the deadline with replacement forward production and significant future building blocks, Panarin will be traded. If not, he stays put.

The odds of Sergei Bobrovsky moving are less likely than the near 50/50 status of Panarin. Although the all-word goaltender seems more likely to depart Columbus as a free agent than Panarin, he is also near impossible to replace at the deadline. Bobrovsky is one three top rentals in net and the other two – Jimmy Howard and Semyon Varlamov – are not guaranteed to be available. The Blue Jackets are not prepared to move an established starter right before the stretch run and postseason without bringing in a suitable replacement. As such, unless a more long-term target emerges, Bobrovsky is unlikely to be traded despite the hype.

Beyond potentially Panarin and Bobrovsky – ironically the only notable UFA’s in the Blue Jackets organization – Columbus is a buyer, not a seller. However, that doesn’t mean that their current roster is untouchable. If Panarin is moved and the Blue Jackets are pursuing top forwards to replace him, talented but ice-cold forward Alexander Wennberg will surely be dangled. Wennberg, 24, is in the second season of a six-year, $29.4MM contract that he has failed to live up to so far. This season has been worse than last, as he has yet to score an even strength goal all season. Even at a cap hit that has not been reflective of his production, some sellers will certainly be intrigued by the 2013 first-rounder’s ceiling. Another young Blue Jackets forward who could be offered up is Sonny Milano, who continues to see limited NHL action despite good AHL production. Young defenseman Gabriel Carlsson, another under-utilized first-round pick, is also a candidate to be traded.

Among their prospect pool, the Blue Jackets may have a tough time avoiding seller demands for first-year pro forward Vitaly Abramov, who has played well in the AHL this season. Arguably the top prospect in the organization, the slick winger has NHL potential and sellers have surely taken notice. Deeper in the pipeline, Columbus will likely hear calls on Swedes Emil Bemstrom and Jonathan Davidsson as well.

Five Players To Watch For: F Artemi Panarin, F Alexander Wennberg, F Sonny Milano, D Gabriel Carlsson, F Vitaly Abramov

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forwards: The only difference a potential Panarin trade makes is the caliber and number of the forwards that the Blue Jackets will target. There is a clear need for offensive depth beyond the Blue Jackets’ top line of Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Cam Atkinson, as no other forward has surpassed 30 points on the year. The power play also needs serious help. If Panarin leaves, the team will need to do their best to replace his production on the top line, likely targeting the top wingers on the market like Mark Stone, Gustav Nyquist, or Mike Hoffman. They will probably look for more affordable top-six options after that. If Panarin stays, the team will still look at top forward options like Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, Mats Zuccarello, and Kevin Hayes. Columbus will be in on nearly every big forward name in the coming days and should add one or two before all is said and done.

2) Defensive Depth: Behind a strong top-four in Columbus are several questions. Can the likes of Scott Harrington, Dean Kukan, and Adam Clendening really hold up down the stretch in a tight playoff race? Or go up against elite competition in the playoffs? The shot side doesn’t really matter so much as the ability, as the Blue Jackets simply need to add a capable veteran defender before the deadline.

3) Draft Picks: When Kekalainen says that he won’t trade Panarin unless the cost of acquiring a replacement would still leave him with a major future piece, that isn’t for nothing. A quick look at the team’s cupboard of draft picks shows how desperate they are in quantity alone. The Blue Jackets currently have just four picks in 2019, likely just one of which will be in the top-75, and are already missing a third-rounder next year. A closer look at the team’s pipeline shows that they lack some game-breaking talent in the system as is, particularly on the blue line. In order to be a buyer, Columbus will further deplete this trade capital. If they do trade Panarin – or Bobrovsky – Kekalainen and company need to make sure that they are going to net some valuable draft picks or prospects in the process.

Poll: Where Will Matt Duchene Finish The Season?

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The trade deadline is less than a week away, and it seems as though the Ottawa Senators have clarity on at least one of their pending free agents. Matt Duchene will almost surely be traded. That’s the sentiment coming out of several reports over the last few days. But where he will eventually end up is still anyone’s guess, even as the best fits start to present themselves. The Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Islanders have all been linked to the star center, with several other teams mentioned in the rumor mill over the last few weeks. Even more than that have likely checked in on Duchene at some point, wondering if he could perhaps be the missing piece for a Stanley Cup playoff run.

Today, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) detailed the various options for Duchene’s camp as they attempt to secure an eight-year deal in free agency. A deadline deal and then sign-and-trade is not out of the question, thus including teams that may not want to give up the assets in-season. A free agent can only sign an eight-year deal with the team that owns his rights as of the latest trade deadline, meaning whoever gets him before Monday passes would have to orchestrate a deal of that length.

Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia also suggested that a sign-and-trade may be on the table, and notes that the Senators actually started “quietly shopping” Duchene last week. The expected asking price according to the Ottawa-based scribe would be a first-round pick, high-end prospect and another piece.

Like with Artemi Panarin and teammate Mark Stone, a deal for Duchene could potentially set the market for these exceptional rental options and quickly get things moving ahead of the deadline. All three will have a dramatic effect on whoever acquires them, and no one wants to waste assets on the second tier of available players before getting a crack at a star.

So who will end up acquiring Duchene? Will the Senators strike a last second deal to keep him in Ottawa long-term, or will he be on the move for the second time in less than two years? What will it eventually cost to get him? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain why in the comments.

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Five Key Stories: 2/11/19 – 2/17/19

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With the trade deadline now just over a week away, activity has started to pick up around the NHL.  Rumors of major trades continue, but so far just a few deals have been completed.

Lafreniere To Stay In CHL: Potential 2020 first-overall pick Alexis Lafreniere set the record straight after rumors were circulating that the 17-year-old may opt to sign a contract overseas and follow the footsteps of Auston Matthews who played his draft year in the Swiss NLA. Lafreniere’s agent, Momentum Hockey Agency, released a statement making it clear that while the young talent did look into playing overseas, he and his family decided to stay in the CHL with Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL where he’s played the last two years, having totaled 74 goals and 172 points in 110 games. At 6-foot-1, he already has the size and proven ability to play in a professional league, but he will stay put for one more year.

Pastrnak, Maatta Injured: The Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins each took a hit to their team when each team lost a significant player to injury. The Boston Bruins lost David Pastrnak for a minimum of two weeks after he underwent thumb surgery on Feb. 12 after he fell at a team function. The Bruins, who are fighting with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the second spot in the Atlantic Division won’t be helped even if its for a few weeks without Pastrnak, who is the team’s leading scorer with 31 goals as well as 66 points, second on the team. The Penguins also took a hit on their blueline when they placed Olli Maatta on injured reserve with an upper-body injury that would sideline him indefinitely. The team was getting back Justin Schultz from injury at the time, but the team was looking forward to getting back a fully healthy defense, which now they won’t have for some time. To make matters worse, the team had recently dealt away Jamie Oleksiak to make room for Schultz, leaving the team with a lack of depth all of the sudden.

Wild Owner Approves Selling: Just hours after Minnesota Wild head coach Bruce Boudreau guaranteed that the Wild would make the playoffs, Wild owner Craig Leipold announced that he has given general manager Paul Fenton the green light to sell off some of the team’s players in advance of the upcoming trade deadline. With the team dropping four straight and having a 2-5-3 record in their last 10 games, it might be time for Fenton to make his mark on this team after being hired this summer to fix the team’s inability to advance deep into the playoffs. Among the numerous players who could be shipped off include pending unrestricted free agent Eric Staal as well as Charlie Coyle, who still has one more year on his deal. There are also a number of bottom six players who could be moved as well, including Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, Brad Hunt, Matt Bartkowski and Anthony Bitetto.

Philadelphia’s Hart Gets A Mentor: The Philadelphia Flyers finally consummated a rumored trade in which it acquired Edmonton Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot for Anthony Stolarz. While Edmonton freed themselves some much needed cap room as Talbot was making $4.17MM, the Flyers got themselves what they hope will be a long-term veteran who can mentor their prized rookie Carter Hart for the next few years. Talbot, who was already familiar with Hart before, waived his no-movement clause to come to Philadelphia and made it clear that he was open to signing a new contract before July 1 to remain with the team.

Ottawa Intends To Trade Duchene: The Ottawa Senators have stopped in their attempts to sign Matt Duchene to an extension and have indicated to all teams that they intend to trade the 26-year-old center. According to reports, the Senators have shifted their focus of signing Duchene to making a full effort to locking up Mark Stone to an extension. Stone may have a day or two to make up his mind on whether he is willing to sign an extension or he too, will be made available to the league with the intention of selling them off at the trade deadline. Already there has been rumors that the Nashville Predators, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the New York Islanders have expressed serious interest in acquiring the center with more suitors likely to join in before the upcoming trade deadline on Feb. 25.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders are under new management and new general manager Lou Lamoriello has made a name for himself over the years with numerous big deals at the trade deadline during his time with New Jersey and Toronto. The question is whether Lamoriello intends to making a big move with his team being atop the Metropolitan Division.

The team has a core of pending unrestricted free agents who Lamoriello may or may not bring back next season and a number of impressive prospects that are either on the team or sitting with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL and has plenty of cap space to work with. Besides Mathew Barzal, the team still lacks a defining core to work and could use another big-name player or two to give the team several faces to the franchise, which is where the deadline could come in. The real question is do the Islanders want to take the chance of possibly damaging the chemistry the team has created so far this year under head coach Barry Trotz.

Record

35-17-6, first in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Serious to moderate buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$46.12MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: NYI 1st, CAL 2nd, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2020: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

The team has a number of players it could package to a team for a big-name player as the team has five significant players who are approaching unrestricted free agency in the summer, including Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Valtteri Filppula and goaltender Robin Lehner. That doesn’t mean the team has any intention of trading even one of those players. That also doesn’t mean the team won’t let them walk away in free agency either. In fact, there is little known about what the team intends to do before next season and knowing what we know about Lamoriello, the team will make significant changes to their team before the start of next season. However, if Lamoriello intends to make a deal, those five could potentially be part of any package. One interesting storyline is Lehner, who is having a comeback season after struggling greatly in Buffalo and dealing with alcoholism. However, does the franchise feel that he is worthy of a long-term deal or could Lehner be used to work out a deal for a Sergei Bobrovsky?

The team also has a number of young players who could be sent out as well, including Michael Dal Colle, Kieffer Bellows, Joshua Ho-Sang, Otto Koivula, and Sebastian Aho to name a few and that doesn’t even include the talent they still have sitting in the junior ranks. Bellows could be a significant trade chip as the team’s 2016 first-rounder has had significant success on his way up, but has also had some struggles. He currently has 11 goals as a rookie in the AHL. Ho-Sang, who has showed some offensive flair over the years, hasn’t put it all together and has struggled with his attitude. One other significant asset the team has is a significant amount of cap space and the team could be willing to take on a bad contract or two if that can net them another talent.

Five Players To Watch For: F Keiffer Bellows, F Jordan Eberle, F Joshua Ho-Sang, G Robin Lehner, F Brock Nelson

Team Needs

1) Franchise Player: Other than Barzal, the team lacks that face-of-the-franchise player at the forward position who can take over games for the next eight years. The team does have Josh Bailey under contract for a few more years, but the rest of the top-six will have to be written, whether that includes re-signing some of their own unrestricted free agents or whether they attempt to trade for a player like Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone or even someone like Bobrovsky in net.

2) Upgrade on defense: The interesting thing about the Islanders’ defense is that it went from being one of the worst defenses in the league in the 2017-18 season as they allowed 3.57 goals per game (31st in the league) and suddenly the team has totally turned that around in 2018-19 as they have allowed just 2.29 goals per game (first in the league). And that’s with almost no changes on defensive personnel. The team lost defenseman Calvin De Haan, but basically returned the same group from the previous year. Obviously, much of the credit should be given to Trotz, but at the same time, the team needs to consider adding to that defense and improving its blueline like acquiring a Alec Martinez from Los Angeles or Cody Ceci from Ottawa.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Notes: Duchene, Pionk, Talbot, Elliott

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Now that the Matt Duchene sweepstakes have started up after it was announced Saturday night that the Senators have decided to trade their star center after they have failed to negotiate an extension. While the report suggested that the Nashville Predators and Columbus Blue Jackets were the two teams that have been in on acquiring the 26-year-old, The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reports that the New York Islanders and general manager Lou Lamoriello are also very interested in bringing Duchene over to Long Island.

While no one is ever sure what Lamoriello plans to do, he is also well known for making an impact at the trade deadline and even though the Islanders are in first place in the Metropolitan Division, the team is still looking for an identity and has plenty of cap room and prospects to work out a potential blockbuster package if Lamoriello wants to do it. The team is still looking for a replacement for the loss of star John Tavares, who left for Toronto during the offseason. Duchene might be a solid No. 2 center for New York and could be viewed as a long-term piece in New York.

  • The New York Rangers got some good news after defenseman Neal Pionk sat out the third period of Sunday’s game after taking a stick to the eye from Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby, which many felt was a sign that the injury was severe. However, Rangers’ head coach David Quinn said that Pionk was held out for precautionary reasons and is expected to play Tuesday against Carolina.
  • Despite being acquired by the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday morning, the Philadelphia Flyers won’t have goaltender Cam Talbot available for their Sunday game against Detroit. The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor (subscription required) writes that while no reason was given, it’s likely because Talbot is moving from Canada to the U.S. and with his primary employment being moved between countries, he likely will be dealing with visa issues for a little while.
  • Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes that the earliest Talbot could be ready will be Thursday, but the team could get back Brian Elliott even sooner. Depending on how he feels after his game Sunday, Elliott could be available to join Philadelphia on Tuesday and serve as a backup. Elliott has been out of the lineup since Nov. 15 with a lower-body injury. However, with Mike McKenna on the roster and Talbot soon to follow, the team will have four goaltenders and will be forced to make a move, most likely waiving McKenna.

Colorado’s Odds At The First Overall Pick

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Early this season, the Colorado Avalanche were in the most enviable position in sports. Their team was excelling and looking playoff-bound, but without any negative effect on their draft status. Because as the Avs won games, the Ottawa Senators were losing them and Colorado owned the Sens’ first-round pick this year as part of last season’s Matt Duchene trade. There was a real possibility that the Avalanche could be Stanley Cup contenders and also have the first overall pick in the draft. Lately, the Avs have looked less like a playoff team and more like the Senators. Colorado has four wins in their past 23 games dating back to mid-December and have slipped into a tie for tenth-place in the Western Conference, three points out of a playoff spot. The one silver lining: their odds at drafting No. 1 have improved and might end up being the best in several years.

Ahead of the 2014 NHL Draft, the NHL changed the draft lottery rules. Any team in the lottery could now move up into a top-three position and the odds would be more fairly distributed among all lottery teams. There have been slight variations in the odds for each draft, but the biggest shift came last year when the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights to the league added a fifteenth member of the lottery group and further split the odds. Yet, with 18.5% odds, the last-placed Buffalo Sabres still retained the first overall pick and drafted Rasmus Dahlin, a generational defenseman. This year’s prize, play-making forward Jack Hughes, is seen by most scouts as a guaranteed top-six center and power play wizard and the team with the worst record still stands the best chance of getting him by a significant margin.

Of course, the worst record looks like it will belong to Ottawa and thus the pick will belong to Colorado. The Senators are currently in 31st overall in the league standings, three points back of the Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils. If those standings hold, based on last year’s odds Colorado will have a 18.5% chance that the Ottawa pick will be first overall, compared to 13.5% for L.A. and 11.5% for New Jersey. Then, Colorado’s own pick comes into play. Currently, the Avs are technically 23rd overall. If they remain in that spot, they would have 5% odds that their own pick would be No. 1. Combined, they would have a 23.5% shot at picking first. Since 2014, no team has come close to having odds that high at the top pick and Colorado could continue to struggle down the stretch and improve the odds on their own pick. If the Avs were to slip three more spots in the league standings, their odds would be greater than 25%, giving them better than a one-in-four shot at Hughes.

The possibilities are even more intriguing when you consider the odds of both picks winning the lottery instead of just one. Currently, there is about a 0.9% chance that Colorado could pick first and second, not dissimilar odds to those that the final lottery team has of picking first. The addition of both Hughes and the presumptive No. 2 pick, Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko, would be an enormous influx of elite draft talent unseen since the Sedin twins landed with the Vancouver Canucks at second and third overall in 1999. There is a whopping 58% chance that both of their picks land in the top four, which would also be an unbelievable boost for the Avalanche with a number of impact forwards available in this class. And again, these odds can only improve if the Avalanche continue on this downward spiral. If the current standings hold, the worst that Colorado could do is to pick fourth and twelfth – which would still be a better first-round combination than any team in recent years – and the odds of that happening are approximately 18x less likely than picking both first and second; the best case is greater reality than the worst-case.

The moral of the story is that, while it’s disappointing for Avalanche fans to see a talented team plummeting down the standings, there is some upside as well. The team is young and built for the future and are in better shape than any team in recent memory to add the best player in the draft and perhaps two of the best available. So whether you’re a Colorado fan soley focused on Hughes or holding out for another top prospect as well, the team’s current slump is only helping in that pursuit. The ping pong balls will ultimately decide the Avs’ fate, but the future is bright.

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