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Western Notes: Trouba, Kovalchuk, Canucks

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While the Winnipeg Jets are coming off an exemplary season in which it reached the Western Conference Finals with a young, talented team, now comes the hard part. The team is full of key restricted free agents which could start taking up what was once an ample amount of cap space. The team has already all but said they don’t intend to re-sign trade deadline acquisition Paul Stastny and for good reason. The team must lock up a number of key players, including all-star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, Adam Lowry, Joel Armia, Marko Dano, Tucker Poolman, Josh Morrissey, Joseph Morrow, and oh, Jacob Trouba.

Two years ago, the contract negotiations between Trouba and the Jets went south, as Trouba ended up holding out for an entire month of the season before coming back and signing a below-value two-year bridge deal. Now, with Trouba’s stock sky-high as one of the top defensemen on the team, things could get even more dicey, according to Winnipeg Free Press’ Paul Wiecek. Trouba and his agent are expected to ask for about $7MM per year, while the Jets hope to keep it between $5MM and $6MM. The question is whether the Jets can afford to give him a big, long-term contract, considering that his offense isn’t even close to his defense after posting three goals and just 24 points on the year.

The team not only has to lock up these younger players, but must eventually lock up captain Blake Wheeler as well as pay youngster Kyle Connor in one year. The money will start to dry up soon. The scribe suggests the team consider moving Trouba now to save some of that money, considering his value is at a premium. Bringing back a big haul could save the team some cap space and fill some of its holes in one swoop.

  • While there was a rumor mentioned by Pierre LeBrun recently about the St. Louis Blues’ interest in Ilya Kovalchuk, NHL.com reports that general manager Doug Armstrong confirmed the team’s interest in the veteran KHL winger. “There’s certainly intrigue there because he’s been such a dominant player internationally and he was a hell of a player when he left [the NHL],” Armstrong said. Kovalchuk, who has played in Russia for the past five seasons is looking for a new home and has already visited the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks, while other teams like the Boston Bruins have expressed interest in the 35-year-old veteran, who has tallied 417 goals in 816 NHL games with the Atlanta Thrashers and the New Jersey Devils.
  • Mike Halford of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Vancouver Canucks, who have always been adept at mining organizations to get quality players, need to continue to do that more than ever with the retirement of Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin. With a lineup full of holes, the scribe writes that the team needs to continue mining other organizations for their unwanted, forgotten or unfulfilled talent like in previous years. Over the last few years, the team has picked up several key players such as Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund, Nikolay Goldobin, Derrick Pouliot and Brendan Leipsic. The scribe goes on to point out three players the team should look into during the offseason and pry them away for late picks include Winnipeg’s Nic Petan, Columbus’ Sonny Milano and the New York Islanders’ Michael Dal Colle. All three are on the outside looking in within the organization and might need a franchise to give them a new chance.

Busy Offseason Now Looms For Winnipeg Jets

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The Winnipeg Jets have been eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs, knocked out by the expansion Vegas Golden Knights in just five games. That ends what was an outstanding season for the Jets, who not only climbed into the playoff picture but showed they could be a long-term contender. Their young core has all reached new heights, and should be able to put pressure on the best teams in the Western Conference for some time.

With those young pieces though come several big decisions. The offseason, not even 24 hours old for the Jets, already must seem too short for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff and the rest of the front office staff. Not only do they have to prepare for the draft in a month’s time, but the roster has just 14 players under contract for next season.

The biggest negotiations will come with Winnipeg’s pending restricted free agents. The list is a who’s who of talent on their club, and will chew up a big part of their salary structure if signed this summer. The Jets’ restricted free agents include:

Jacob Trouba
Josh Morrissey
Tucker Poolman
Joseph Morrow
Jan Kostalek

Brandon Tanev
Joel Armia
Marko Dano
Adam Lowry
Chase De Leo
Jimmy Lodge
Nic Petan
J.C. Lipon

Connor Hellebuyck
Eric Comrie
Jamie Phillips

Especially on defense and in goal, these are key players who could demand long-term contracts with substantial cap hits. Trouba, who once wanted out of Winnipeg to play a bigger role somewhere else, has recently indicated that he would like to stay with the Jets long-term. The team would obviously want that too, but have to carefully manage their finances as they approach restricted free agency next summer with Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. Success is eventually paid for.

With so many restricted free agents, it’s sometimes easy to forget that Paul Stastny, Toby Enstrom, Matt Hendricks, Shawn Matthias and Michael Hutchinson are also headed for the unrestricted waters this summer. Several of these players will generate extensive interest should they hit the open market, and it’s not clear if Winnipeg intends on re-signing any of them. If they do, July 1st is coming quicker than you may think, and work needs to be done to secure their future contracts.

Either way, Winnipeg has a busy few months ahead of them as they try to piece the roster back together and take another shot at the Stanley Cup in 2019. Though there needs to be a few days of decompression from their shocking defeat, there’s plenty of work to be done.

Trade Rumors: Coyotes, Canadiens, Jets, Islanders

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In all likelihood, the recent three-way trade that sent Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators and Kyle Turris to the Nashville Predators will be the biggest deal made this season. Yet, that hasn’t stopped the whispers of an bustling trade market, especially this early in the season. At the quarter pole of the 2017-18 campaign, it’s been an unpredictable season, prompting an unexpectedly active market. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch has had his ear to the ground and has plenty of input on who the buyers and sellers are right now:

  • To no one’s surprise, Garrioch states that the floundering Arizona Coyotes are “willing to talk about pretty much every player on their roster”. That of course doesn’t include Calder-hopeful Clayton Keller or many of their other 21-and-under starters, but the rest of the roster may as well be up for grabs. The big off-season acquisitions of Derek Stepan, Antti Raanta, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers have done nothing to change this team’s ability to win hockey games. At some point, GM John Chayka is going to go from “up-and-coming” to “up-and-went” and that pressure could force him to make some major moves as he rethinks his rebuild. While impending UFA’s like Raanta, Brad Richardson, and Luke Schenn would be the easiest pieces to move, the stakes are high for a Coyotes team whose core has done next to nothing for years and key pieces like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, and Tobias Rieder could soon be on their way out.
  • Perhaps the only team more disappointing than Arizona in 2017-18 is the farthest team from them across North America: the Montreal Canadiens. Under new head coach Claude Julien, the Habs have fallen apart. However, the newly-signed coach isn’t going anywhere, putting GM Marc Bergevin, who Garrioch calls ” the NHL’s most active GM”, on the hot seat. Bergevin may be willing to make a big move to save his job, and of course the first name that comes to mind is young forward Alex Galchenyuk, who has predictably struggled under the defense-first Julien. Galchenyuk seems lost in Montreal, without an identifiable position, role, or spot in the lineup, and could use a change of scenery. However, he is not wholly to blame for the Canadiens’ struggles. Tomas Plekanec has long been on the block and if the team truly commits to a rebuild, big names like Max Pacioretty, Shea Weber, and (if anyone is willing to take on his monstrous new contract) even Carey Price could soon join the list.
  • Garrioch mentions both the Winnipeg Jets and New York Islanders as possible sellers, but given the surprising success of both clubs thus far, neither is likely rushing to trade pieces away unless they can make their teams better this season. Impending Jets UFA’s Shawn Matthias and Matt Hendricks may draw interest, but if Winnipeg is in playoff position come deadline time, they would want veteran depth for themselves. It seems more likely that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff could use his overflow of young forwards like Marko Dano, Joel Armia, Andrew Copp, Adam Lowry, or Brandon Tanev as trade bait to bring in another top-six forward for a team that doesn’t shoot the puck nearly enough. As for the Islanders, Garrioch singles out first-time UFA Calvin de Haan as the player to watch. Yet, de Haan is one of, if not the best shot-blocker in the NHL, can play major minutes, and is reliable in both ends. If the Isles can resign him, wouldn’t they? Obviously, John Tavares is the main focus and the team thinks highly of younger options like Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, but the loss of a player like de Haan, especially with Travis Hamonic now in Calgary, could cripple a playoff-bound Islanders squad. Odds are de Haan sticks around, at least as long as New York remains playoff-bound.
  • So who’s looking? Garrioch mentions the Florida Panthers, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets, and the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins as suitors for forward help, with the Dallas Stars potentially looking to make another big blue line trade to turn their season around. With that many buyers and several disappointed sellers, the trade NHL trade market may not wait until 2018 to heat up.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $67,661,666 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Patrik Laine (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Kyle Connor (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Nikolaj Ehlers (One year remaining, $894K)
D Josh Morrissey (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Laine: $2.65MM
Ehlers: $850K
Connor: $850K
Morrissey: $500K

Total: $4.85MM

The future looks bright for the Jets, especially with Laine, who is constantly overshadowed by Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthews. Laine, who was taken second-overall in last year’s draft, put up phenomenal numbers that make Jets fans believe again in their team. He put up 36 goals in his rookie campaign and added 28 assists for a 64-point season. He should only get better and become the cornerstone of the franchise in the future. He should be joined by Ehlers, who also had a breakout year last year. The 2014 first-round pick had 15 goals in his rookie year, but added to that this past year, putting up 25 goals and 39 assists for 64 points.

The team also has high hopes for Connor to make the team and find himself a full-time role this year. The team’s 2015 first-round pick, put up big numbers a couple years ago at the University of Michigan two years ago, then scored 25 goals with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose and still managed to get 20 games in with the Jets, where he scored two goals and three assists. The team believes he has a good shot to end up on one of the back two lines. Morrissey, the team’s first-round pick back in 2013, found a full-time role with the Jets last year as he put up six goals and 14 assists. He is currently slated to start on the Jets’ third-line defense.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Toby Enstrom ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Bryan Little ($4.7MM, UFA)
D Jacob Trouba ($2.81MM, RFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($2.25MM, RFA)
F Shawn Matthias ($2.13MM, UFA)
G Michael Hutchinson ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Adam Lowry ($1.13MM, RFA)
F Joel Armia ($925K, RFA)
F Marko Dano ($850K, RFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($700K, RFA)
F Matt Hendricks ($700K, UFA)
F Michael Sgarbossa ($650K, RFA)

That’s a long list, but most of the players are restricted free agents and should easily be retained. However, the team will have to make some decisions on some key veterans, including Little, who many feel is an underrated forward. The 29-year-old has been with the franchise from the start of his career when they were the Atlanta Thrashers and has scored 184 goals for the franchise. With the team’s large number of young forwards, might they move on from Little in a year? Injuries have plagued little over the past two years as he’s missed 48 games. His 21 goals last year were solid, but he will need to prove his value this year if he wants another long-term deal. Another potential unrestricted free agent would be Enstrom, who will be 33 next year and the team will have to decide whether to keep the veteran blueliner. His offensive numbers dropped into the teens in the last couple of years. Mattias and Hendricks are expendable fill-ins, but valuable veterans to hold that roster together.

The team will be looking to several of their restricted free agent as key players in the future. The team will be looking at Trouba to have a big season this year. The 23-year-old defenseman had a career-high 33 points a year ago and he did that in only 60 games, so many feel he may take his game up a notch this year if he can avoid injuries. Despite Hellebuyck’s down year as they attempted to hand him the starting goaltender job, the team still looks at him as a potential starter that just wasn’t ready to take their reigns last year. His 2.89 GAA in 56 games didn’t get the job done. With Mason coming in, Hellebuyck will have more time to develop as a backup.

The team will be looking for Lowry to continue to develop as well. Lowry had 15 goals last year and the 24-year-old is expected to center the team’s third line. Armia also has bigger expectations this year after putting up 10 goals a year ago. He could also end up as a wing next to Lowry on that third line. Dano could also pick up a full-time role with the Jets this year. The former 2013 first-rounder played 38 games for Winnipeg last year, putting up four goals and seven assists.

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Winnipeg’s Forward Depth And Versatility Valuable In Trade Market

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The Winnipeg Jets finished just 7 points out of a playoff berth this season. Like the Islanders (41 wins) and Lightning (42 wins), the Jets (40 wins) were on the verge of making it to the show in the final weeks. As such, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff didn’t feel the necessity to spend large this off-season, nor make any substantial trades. Cheveldayoff shored up the goaltending position with Steve Mason on a two-year contract, and hopes that will be enough to push the team over the edge. Still, if management feels that improvements should be made, the team has the assets and the versatility up front to do so. It’s uncertain whether Dmitry Kulikov will be enough to shore up what was a poor-performing defensive group last year. A spare forward could be floated for more help in their own end, even though their 6 slots seem safely filled at the moment.

Particularly at the center position, the Jets have one of the more enviable situations league-wide. By my count, the Jets have 9 roster players who can theoretically slot in for center duties. Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Shawn Matthias, Adam Lowry, Michael Sgarbossa, Marko Dano and Brandon Tanev all can play up the middle. Scheifele is obviously the first line center, and Little is safely pegged at number two. After that, things get a bit interesting. Perreault finished the season while spending some time on the wing, and his goal scoring dried up – he only had 22 in the past two seasons. His point production is still locked in at 40+, but considering his $4.125 MM cap hit for the next four seasons, maybe now is the time to opt out. Matthias is interesting primarily because he only has one season remaining before he hits unrestricted free agency.  He can slot on the third or fourth lines and provide mediocre depth production, but his marginal worth wouldn’t be enough to land a difference maker in a trade.

Little also sees his current deal expire at the conclusion off 2017-18, and his new contract could be relatively hefty. With Blake Wheeler due another contract hike after 2018-19, and Jacob Trouba looking for a raise after this year, there is the possibility Little could be moved for the right package. Still, he’s one of the more consistent players on the Jets and has never known another franchise. If he were to be shopped, the return could be quite pricey for many competing teams. He’s perceived as a top-end #2 center and his internal value is quite steep. Following that, Lowry will continue to build on his progression last year, where he tallied 29 points. He’s yet to put it all together, but his size and still tender age of 24 wouldn’t make him the first target for movement. Dano is far more comfortable on the wing, and he’s likely going nowhere. Sgarbossa is essentially a non-factor, as is Tanev, in terms of drawing league interest.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Nicolas Petan should find himself a regular this season, and many expect him to push for that 3rd line center position. As with many of the other names, he can slot on the wing instead, but that might not be the best use of his talents long-term. If he forces Lowry down the depth chart further, does that make a player like Little more expendable for the right move? What would the interest be like for a player of Perreault’s caliber? Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that we’ll know until well into the season. Cheveldayoff has been firm in staying the course with the young and promising Jets, and he’s more likely to wait at least until the conclusion of training camp before making any major transaction.

2017 NHL Free Agency Tracker

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Stay with PHR for all of the free agency signings this off-season. As of noon ET on July 1st, unrestricted free agency is open, but not before many extensions earlier in June. This page serves to organize everything in one spot, and are linked to the PHR story that corresponds with the signing. All July signings will be separated by date while June signings are organized alphabetically by team. It will be updated as soon as stories post.

Please note that signings on this list start on June 12.

July 1st:

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Marko Dano Signs One-Year Contract With Winnipeg Jets

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The Winnipeg Jets can mark off one item on their offseason to-do list, as the team has signed Marko Dano to a one-year contract. The contract is one-way, and worth $850K for the 2017-18 season. Getting him under contract gives the Jets more options for the expansion draft, as he could be exposed as one of their two forwards who meets the games played minimums. Marko Dano

As discussed in the Jets’ Expansion Primer, the team is in a tough spot should Toby Enstrom not waive his no-movement clause. We won’t find out if he did or not until the protection lists are released, but if he didn’t there are going to be handful of interesting players available for the Golden Knights. Dano may not be the top name, but he’s definitely one of them after flashing some of the potential that made him a first-round pick just a few years ago.

Dano was acquired by the Jets along with a first-round pick—which the team used to trade up and select Logan Stanley—for Andrew Ladd last year, and is a promising young player in his own right. The 22-year old was actually drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets before being shipped off to Chicago as part of the Brandon Saad deal. Selected as a center, he hasn’t played much down the middle in the NHL.

Now playing on a one-way contract, Dano is expected to spend most of the year with the Jets this season as a bottom-six winger with the potential to develop into a more offensive player. His speed and defensive game is good enough to play limited minutes, but if he’s to take the next step he needs to break through offensively. Even in the AHL he’s rarely found sustained success, something he’ll look for in Winnipeg as he turns 23.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Toby Enstrom And The Expansion Draft

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After the Winnipeg Jets announced yesterday that Toby Enstrom underwent knee surgery and would be out for the rest of the year, it ended what has been a very disappointing season. The former 50-point defenseman had just 14 this year, easily the lowest number of his career. Broken up by a concussion and personal issues, 2016-17 has been one to forget for the 32-year old.

Next season, he’ll head into the last year of his current five-year contract likely passed by Josh Morrissey among Jets’ defenders and perhaps even the newly signed Tucker Poolman as well. His $5.75MM cap hit is hard for the Jets to swallow if he can’t get back to his previous performance, but it’s something else that may cost Winnipeg even more.

Enstrom’s contract includes a no-movement clause, meaning he’ll require automatic protection in the upcoming expansion draft should he not agree to waive it. Dustin Byfuglien also has an NMC, and Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers clearly need protection. That would force the Jets into the eight skater option, leaving several good players available for Vegas to choose.

Even if they decided to leave the rest of the defenders—losing one of Ben Chiarot, Julian Melchiori or Brenden Kichton wouldn’t cripple the team—that means they only have four slots for forwards. When you check off Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Bryan Little as obvious choices, you then are left with the group of Mathieu Perreault, Adam Lowry, Marko Dano, Joel Armia and Andrew Copp available with the power to protect just one. Losing any of them without a fight would be painful, given the potential or performance they’ve shown so far.

Getting Enstrom to waive that NMC is crucial, as it would give three more spots to the Jets to keep their young forward group in tact. If he isn’t willing, it won’t be just his declining play that will leave a bad taste in the mouths of the Winnipeg faithful. For a player who has spent his whole career with a single franchise after they took a chance on him in the eighth round, he needs to do just one more thing for them—even if it does put him at risk of having to play in Vegas for a year.

Remembering The Early Trades From 2015-16

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The month between the All-Star game and the NHL trade deadline is an interesting one. While most of the action happens right at the end, even sometimes extending past the official deadline due to trade calls, sometimes big moves happen early in February.

Last season, 33 trades happened in the last few days (from February 26-29) before the deadline,  but there were also seven deals that happened in the weeks immediately after the All-Star break. Those deals were just as important to the futures of their teams as any made on the day itself. Let’s look back at the seven deals made between February 9th and 25th last season.

February 9th: Toronto trades Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert and Cody Donaghey to Ottawa for Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek, Tobias Lindberg and a 2017 2nd-round pick.

Starting with a whopper, the Maple Leafs continued their drastic tear-down by trading their current captain and highest paid player to a cross-province and divisional rival. The Senators had been looking for another big-minute defenseman and thought Phaneuf could become that player for them.

While it hasn’t worked out perfectly for the Senators, Phaneuf has logged over 23 minutes a night since coming over and is having a fine if unspectacular season offensively this year. While his massive looks like an albatross on their books – he’ll have a cap-hit of $7MM (more than Erik Karlsson) until 2020-21 – the actual salary is much lower. The team also rid themselves of dead money in Cowen, Greening and Michalek and only had to pay the price of a middling prospect in Lindberg and what looks like a fairly late second-round pick.

Lou Lamoriello and the Maple Leafs worked some accounting magic, and have effectively rid themselves of the cap-hits for all three players, burying Greening and Michalek in the AHL and buying out Cowen after a lengthy dispute. Moving Phaneuf was an integral part of the plan going forward, and both teams are fighting for playoff spots a year later.

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Blues Notes: Allen, Bishop, Shattenkirk, Hunt

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Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch conducted his weekly chat and understandably touched on several trade-related topics. It’s well worth a full read but here are the highlights.

  • The Blues dealt goaltender Brian Elliott this past summer under the belief that Jake Allen was ready to be a full-time starter. It made sense in theory as the former second-round draft pick won 26 of his 44 starts and posted a GAA of 2.35 with a S% of 0.920. Unfortunately, Allen has struggled as the #1, allowing nearly 0.50 goals-per-60 more than he did in 2015-16 and stopping fewer than nine of every 10 shots on net. Rutherford feels that while Allen is certainly to blame for the soft goals he has allowed at times this season, the team in front of him simply isn’t good enough this year.
  • Because of Allen’s struggles, some have suggested the team should look to acquire a proven starter with Ben Bishop’s name surfacing as one possibility. In fact, one reader speculated on a possible Kevin Shattenkirk-for-Bishop swap since on the surface it addresses issues each team has. Rutherford pours cold water on that hypothetical scenario, however, citing uncertainty regarding whether Tampa Bay will be a buyer, seller or choose to stand pat at the deadline. Additionally, he questions whether the Lightning would be willing to pay a hefty price for a rental, assuming they remain either on the outside looking in or on the fringes of a playoff berth. It should also be noted that with several key RFA’s to re-sign next summer, it’s not likely that the Lightning would target a pending UFA with any notion of extending him beyond his current term, further diminishing the possibility GM Steve Yzerman engages the Blues in discussions for Shattenkirk.
  • Speaking of Shattenkirk, Rutherford calculates the potential returns the Blues can expect if moving the skilled blue liner both as a rental and a sign-and-trade scenario where the acquiring team is allowed to negotiate an extension with the player. As a rental the scribe feels he can net the Blues a “pretty good prospect.” Even as part of a sign-and-trade, Rutherford is unsure whether the Blues would be able to attract offers including more than a “good player.” He reasons that teams would simply prefer to wait until Shattenkirk hits free agency as opposed to sacrificing valuable assets now. Either way, Shattenkirk is going to get paid and it might behoove teams to wait until the summer to make their move. Based on what significant rental players have cost acquiring teams in the past, Rutherford might be undervaluing Shattenkirk. Last year Carolina received a prospect and two draft choices for a couple months of Eric Staal. Winnipeg dealt Andrew Ladd and received a prospect (Marko Dano) and a first-round pick in return. Teams will pay steep prices for premium rentals. The real question, in my estimation at least, is whether St. Louis would be willing to move Shattenkirk for futures or if they will insist on receiving an NHL or NHL-ready contributor. If they have designs on competing for a Stanley Cup in the near future it’s more likely they’d prefer someone who can step in and play right away.
  • Lastly, readers wanted to know why the Blues couldn’t find a trade partner for defenseman Brad Hunt rather than losing him for nothing on waivers. The undersized Hunt has been excellent in the AHL, netting 29 points in 23 games for the Chicago Wolves but as Rutherford points out, he has yet to see any game action since joining Nashville. Hunt also spent three years in the Edmonton organization, a team lacking NHL-quality defenders, yet saw nothing more than a cup of coffee with the Oilers. Could Hunt be an example of a player overlooked? Perhaps, but more likely he is what they refer to in baseball circles as a “4A” player; too good for the minors but not quite good enough to secure a permanent role in the big leagues.

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