Poll: How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign Before July 1st?
The season is over for all but four NHL teams, meaning free agents from the other 27 clubs are already focused on July 1st and the start of free agency. How many of those top free agents are still considering staying where they are versus testing the market? How many teams have the means and interest to re-sign them?
In January, PHR published our Mid-Season UFA Power Rankings: 1-10, 11-20, and honorable mentions. Mark Stone, Eric Staal, Jakob Silfverberg and Jimmy Howard – four of our top 25 – have already signed extensions. However, the other top names and their current squads have exactly seven weeks to decide whether or not they will follow suit.
The Columbus Blue Jackets went all in at the trade deadline and it paid off with the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, a shocking sweep of the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. Yet, the acquisitions of Ottawa Senators standouts Matt Duchene (No. 5) and Ryan Dzingel (No. 16) was not enough to get the team through round two, nevertheless to a Stanley Cup title. Now, the team faces the possibility that their new additions could walk in free agency alongside stars Artemi Panarin (No. 2) and Sergei Bobrovsky (No. 6), leaving them with major holes to fill. The latter duo have long been expected to test the market, perhaps even as a package deal. Additionally, the conditional 2020 first-round pick tied to re-signing Duchene would seemingly make it less likely that Columbus opts to extend him, especially given their lack of picks in the upcoming draft. None of those three have officially ruled out a return to the Blue Jackets, but it doesn’t look good. On the other hand, Dzingel, an Ohio State University alum, looks like he could be a more natural long-term fit, but it hasn’t prevented rumors that other teams are very interested in signing him.
Another free agent-heavy team that blew through round one of the playoffs only to be knocked off in round two are the New York Islanders. After losing John Tavares last summer, going through the same with top forward Anders Lee (No. 9) would be devastating for the Islanders franchise. Yet, the captain still remains unsigned. It’s fair to assume they will eventually figure it out, but that line of thinking if awfully reminiscent of last year. New York is reportedly pushing hard to retain enter Brock Nelson (No. 11) and winger Jordan Eberle (No. 15) as well, but they could be more inclined to test the market. There’s also the question of resurgent goalie Robin Lehner (No. 23). Will the Islanders lock up the young keeper who was so solid this season? Or will they refuse to pay market value for a player that has benefited from their system while splitting time with Thomas Greiss?
Another team of interest are the San Jose Sharks, who remain alive in the Western Conference Final. Superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson (No. 1) and respected veteran forward Joe Pavelski (No. 7) are both heading for free agency and the Sharks may be hard-pressed to sign both. There’s also deadline addition Gustav Nyquist (No. 14) to consider re-signing, as he has had a strong postseason with the Sharks. The Carolina Hurricanes are also one of four teams still playing and are definitely happy they held on to forward Micheal Ferland (No. 18). Ferland is reportedly expected to test the market, but after a deep postseason run he may be more open to extending his stay with the Hurricanes.
It was a difficult end to the year for the Winnipeg Jets, who were one-and-done this year, falling to the St. Louis Blues in the first round. Between rental center Kevin Hayes (No. 8) and big defenseman Tyler Myers (No. 10), the Jets have a pair of coveted free agents on the roster who they would surely like to keep, but that is the least of their worries as they face a daunting impending cap crunch. It could make bringing back even one of the two nearly impossible. The same goes for defenseman Jake Gardiner (No. 12) and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs will have a hard enough time keeping their roster together and re-signing their current restricted free agent, nevertheless managing to re-sign Gardiner.
Generally, playoff rentals proceed to hit the free agent market rather than re-up with their new teams. In addition to Duchene, Dzingel, Hayes, and Nyquist, Nashville’s Wayne Simmonds (No. 13), Dallas’ Mats Zuccarello (No. 21), and Colorado’s Derick Brassard (No. 24) could very well be headed to yet another destination. Simmonds and Brassard were disappointments in their short stays, but Zuccarello proved to be a nice fit with the Stars. However, the team would lose a first-round pick rather than a second-round pick to the New York Rangers if they were to re-sign the veteran forward. That may not be enough to stop them from extending him, though.
If there was any doubt that the Buffalo Sabres couldn’t re-sign Jeff Skinner (No. 4), one would think he would have been dealt at the trade deadline. However, he remains suspiciously unsigned and would be a massive addition to the free agent market if he does make it to July. Skinner has been a great match with Jack Eichel and certainly looks like a long-term fit in Buffalo, but the team’s second-half struggles could have Skinner re-thinking a long-term stay.
Vancouver’s Alexander Edler (No. 22) stated that his preference was not to be dealt at this year’s trade deadline and to instead re-sign with the Canucks. The two sides have been working toward an extension, but until pen meets paper he is still an impending free agent that will attract considerable attention. Similarly, Semyon Varlamov (No. 17) has expressed an interest in remaining with the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s unclear if the feeling is mutual. Varlamov would have to take a major pay cut to stay on as backup and may rather test a goalie market that has already lost Howard and could lose Lehner before free agency opens.
Compared to recent years, this impending free agent class does look to have fewer locks for extensions among top players. Any of these names could hit the market, although odds are they won’t all choose to do so. Regardless, this could be a healthy market come July 1st. Just how deep could it be? That’s for you to guess. How many of these top free agents will sign extensions?
How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign?
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4-6 39% (331)
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1-3 34% (288)
-
7-9 15% (131)
-
10+ 7% (59)
-
None 5% (40)
Total votes: 849
[Mobile users click here to vote]
Hockey Canada Announces 2019 IIHF World Championship Roster
The 2019 IIHF World Championship will begin next month, and Hockey Canada has finally announced their roster for the tournament. 22 players were named to the group (that could be increased to 25), including many that have represented the team at international events in the past. The full roster is as follows:
G MacKenzie Blackwood
G Matt Murray
G Carter Hart
D Thomas Chabot
D Brandon Montour
D Troy Stecher
D Damon Severson
D Shea Theodore
D Darnell Nurse
D Dante Fabbro
F Jon Marchessault
F Anthony Cirelli
F Mark Stone
F Tyler Bertuzzi
F Anthony Mantha
F Sam Reinhart
F Mathieu Joseph
F John Tavares
F Kyle Turris
F Dylan Strome
F Adam Henrique
F Sean Couturier
NHL Announces 2019 Selke Trophy Finalists
The NHL has announced the finalists for the 2019 Frank J. Selke Trophy, given to the best defensive forward in the league. Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron, who has won the award four times, received his eighth consecutive nomination. With him are St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly and Vegas Golden Knights winger Mark Stone.
Bergeron’s presence on the list should come as no surprise. The 33-year old center has long been considered one of the best defensive forwards to ever suit up in the NHL, finishing just outside the finalist group twice even before this nearly unprecedented eight-year run. Still, given the fact that he played just 65 games and logged an average of just 13:30 at even strength some may point to other deserving candidates like Aleksander Barkov who seem to have been overlooked. There’s no doubt that Bergeron still has the chops for this prize, but as he ages and more responsibility is put on other Bruins it will be harder and harder for him to take home the trophy.
In his place as a potential yearly candidate is O’Reilly, who turned in the best season of his career after a move to St. Louis. Though his 77 points don’t directly tie into the Selke voting (or at least, they shouldn’t), they were all the more impressive given his outstanding efforts in the defensive end. O’Reilly was once again one of the best faceoff men in the league, winning more draws than any other player and converting at a 56.9% rate. He has never been named a finalist for the award previously, but has received at least some votes in each of the last eight years.
Stone’s appearance here is perhaps most impressive, given that he does not play the position most often linked to the Selke trophy. The Golden Knights forward lines up on the wing but is arguably the best player in the league at creating neutral zone turnovers and hardly ever gives the puck up without a fight. That two-way ability is exactly why the Golden Knights decided to go out and acquire him at the deadline, and that decision is paying off handsomely as he leads all players with six goals and ten points in the playoffs.
Vegas Golden Knights Looking To Move Out Salary
The Vegas Golden Knights have gone from an empty expansion team roster to a cap crunch sooner than anyone could have expected. The defending Western Conference champs are enjoying another strong season and made a major splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Mark Stone and subsequently signing him to an eight-year, $76MM extension. GM George McPhee made the move knowing that the majority of the roster was locked up through next season and beyond and he would not be forcing anyone out by adding a $9.5MM cap hit to the payroll; or so he hopes. The other side of that coin is the lack of free agents who could depart Vegas naturally this off-season leaves little cap flexibility for the one major extension the team needs to make: top line center and impending restricted free agent William Karlsson.
Karlsson, 26, bet on himself this past year when he signed a one-year, $5.25MM deal with Vegas following a breakout 78-point campaign. He hasn’t quite replicated those numbers this season, but with 44 points through 71 games, Karlsson is on a 51-point pace and has at least proven that he is a reliable contributor and will almost certainly be able to command a raise in his next deal, which is likely to be a long-term pact.
The only problem is that CapFriendly currently projects Vegas to have negative cap space next season. Of course, this does not take into account a likely bump in the cap ceiling nor does it exclude the cap hit of the injured David Clarkson, but the Knights have joined the select few teams who are in a legitimate cap crunch, where the salary they need to add to complete their roster does not match up with the space they expect to work with. For now, McPhee is waiting to see what his options are before moving forward in talks with Karlsson. The Athletic’s Jesse Granger reports that the two sides have not talked contract yet and do not plan to until after the season. Even if early discussions go smoothly, that timeline almost assures that Karlsson will again file for arbitration and bad decision for the team side could cause major problems.
As a result, Granger expects the team to work quickly to move out salary this off-season. In addition to Karlsson, Tomas Nosek and Malcolm Subban are also restricted free agents, while veteran leader Deryk Engelland and goal scorer Brandon Pirri are among the UFA’s they might be interested in re-signing. It’s a group of players that each made no more than $1.5MM this season, but new deals even at those same values add up in addition to Karlsson’s demands. Granger expects the Knights to have $5.75MM in cap space, which is likely not enough to re-sign Karlsson, nevertheless these supporting pieces as well. The team could also use an upgrade at backup goalie, moving on from Subban for a more established piece.
So who could be on the move to help clear up space? Granger points to bottom-six forwards Ryan Reaves and Cody Eakin as the most likely trade casualties. Although Reaves is valued more for his checking game and willingness to defend his teammates, his nearly $3MM salary is hard to swallow given his paltry offensive contributions. Vegas could find a much cheaper option to fill Reaves’ role. Eakin is sixth in scoring for the Golden Knights this season, but is seemingly locked into a fourth-line center slot moving forward which doesn’t match up nicely with his contract of just under $4MM. Granger points out that both Reaves’ and Eakin’s contract expires after next season, so moving them may not be hard. However, McPhee could opt to deal from a greater position of strength: Vegas’ surplus of defensemen. The team could try to trade Colin Miller, who costs slightly more than Eakin against the cap and has taken a step back in his development this year. The 26-year-old is signed for three more years, but there are surely teams out there who would still be willing to take a chance on his upside. Other possibilities to clear cap space, albeit smaller amounts, are defenseman Jon Merrill and forward William Carrier.
Whatever McPhee decides to do, it is clear that he must move some salary out and the sooner the better once the off-season gets underway. The Golden Knights’ focus is elsewhere right now, but if this promising team is to keep their core together and continue their impressive start to the franchise, they need to do what it takes to keep Karlsson around long-term, even if it costs them in the short-term to do so.
Mark Stone Signs Eight-Year Extension With Vegas Golden Knights
The wait is over Vegas Golden Knights fans. Mark Stone has officially signed his eight-year, $76MM extension. The deal carries a $9.5MM average annual value and includes a full no-movement clause. CapFriendly has the full salary breakdown:
- 2019-20: $3MM salary + $9MM signing bonus
- 2020-21: $1MM salary + $7MM signing bonus
- 2021-22: $7MM salary + $5MM signing bonus
- 2022-23: $1MM salary + $7MM signing bonus
- 2023-24: $6MM salary + $5MM signing bonus
- 2024-25: $6MM salary + $5MM signing bonus
- 2025-26: $3MM salary + $5MM signing bonus
- 2026-27: $1MM salary + $5MM signing bonus
Stone, 26, was acquired by the Golden Knights at the trade deadline from the Ottawa Senators for a package that included prospect Erik Brannstrom, and has had an immediate impact on the ice. Though he has recorded just two points in five games, the Golden Knights are undefeated and have not allowed a goal against with Stone on the ice. That’s part of his appeal, given his ability as one of the very best defensive forwards in the entire NHL. Stone has also attempted 34 shots in those five games, with 18 of them hitting the net but failing to go in. Stone had scored on nearly 20% of his shots while with the Senators, meaning it’s just a matter of time before he gets his first goal as a Golden Knight.
Even with his incredible two-way appeal, this contract is certainly an expensive one for the Golden Knights. The club is just in their sophomore season in the NHL, but already has more than $82MM in cap space committed to the 2019-20 season. That includes just 17 players, meaning there will have to be changes coming in Vegas even if the cap ceiling increases substantially as it is expected to. Along with Stone’s extension, the Golden Knights will see Marc-Andre Fleury, Nate Schmidt, Alex Tuch and Max Pacioretty all receive huge raises next season.
The huge amount of the contract paid out in signing bonuses is an important factor. Not only will Stone receive the equivalent of lockout protection by receiving most of his total in bonuses in both 2020-21 and 2022-23 (possible work stoppage seasons), but paying out his salary in huge chunks is something the Ottawa Senators likely weren’t able to offer. The Senators apparently tried tirelessly to work out a contract extension with Stone before trading him, but the team has never been able to agree to this sort of payment structure in the past.
A no-movement clause is also included in the deal, which is something teams are wary to hand out at the moment. With the Seattle expansion draft coming up, NMCs drastically reduce a team’s flexibility given that they must be protected. Vegas however doesn’t have to worry about that factor, given they will not be participating in the expansion fee or draft process. While several teams likely would have been willing to offer a no-movement clause to a player of Stone’s caliber, Vegas can do so without hesitation.
Stone’s will now be tied (for the moment) for the 12th-highest cap hit in the NHL next season, and puts him behind only Patrick Kane ($10.5MM) and Alex Ovechkin ($9.54MM) in terms of wingers. Nikita Kucherov and Jamie Benn also come in at $9.5MM. That puts a lot of pressure on him to continue producing, something that isn’t guaranteed even with his outstanding reputation around the league. His 64 points this season actually represents a career high, tying him with his total from 2014-15. While he’s obviously going to break that total given the month remaining in the season, the fact that he secured a contract like this without ever producing 65 points or 30 goals in a single season is impressive and speaks to just how valuable the Golden Knights believe him to be in other areas.
It’s not just on the ice that Stone has impressed. There was speculation in Ottawa that the winger would likely be the team’s next captain if he re-signed, and new teammates have already raved about how Stone stepped into a leadership role in Vegas right away. He’ll be asked to bring that and a lot more for the next eight years.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Mark Stone Extension Delayed, But Still Coming
After Mark Stone was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights just minutes before the February 25th trade deadline, he admitted to have already worked out an extension with the team. That extension was to be for eight years and $76MM, but couldn’t be officially filed until March 1st because of the “tagging” issue of having more than the salary cap ceiling already committed to the next season. Then March 1st came and went with no extension, leading some to wonder if something had occurred to stop the deal from coming together.
Not to worry Golden Knights fans, as Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports that the only reason the deal isn’t done was a personal issue that kept GM George McPhee out of town. Lavoie notes that McPhee wanted to be there in person, and that the deal will be filed in the next few days.
Stone hasn’t been able to score much for the Golden Knights so far, recording just one assist in his four games for the club, but that hasn’t stopped him from making an impact. The former Ottawa Senators forward has attempted 23 shots so far, getting 13 of them on net. That kind of volume is sure to garner some results in the near future, even if Stone is playing fewer minutes than he has the last few seasons. Vegas takes on the Calgary Flames tonight in a battle of Western Conference titans, a matchup that would be a perfect time for Stone to break out and tally his first goal as a Golden Knight.
Snapshots: Sheahan, Stone, Pearson, Desjardins
While some expected the Panthers to flip recently-acquired center Riley Sheahan by the trade deadline, they opted to keep him around instead. GM Dale Tallon told Walter Villa of the Miami Herald that he’s quite pleased with how the 27-year-old has performed so far and that they hope to bring him back for next season. Sheahan is set to become an unrestricted free agent in July and is making $2.1MM this season. With just 14 points in 62 games between Pittsburgh and Florida, it’s hard to imagine that it will cost considerably more to keep him around although his positional versatility certainly adds to his value.
Other news and notes around the league:
- Mark Stone’s expected new deal with Vegas (which can be made official as early as Friday) is expected to carry a full no-movement clause. Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun notes that this was something that the Senators were unwilling to put as part of their offer to keep the 26-year-old in the fold.
- Canucks winger Tanner Pearson has had a rough season as he has struggled offensively and has been dealt twice now. He told reporters, including Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston, that he had been playing through an undisclosed injury since early December which had prevented him from producing like he did in the past although it wasn’t significant enough to take him out of the lineup. After averaging 18 goals over each of the past three seasons, Pearson has scored just nine through 61 games so far in 2018-19.
- With the deadline having passed, one of the questions in Los Angeles is once again the future of interim head coach Willie Desjardins. GM Rob Blake told Robert Morales of the Los Angeles Daily News that a decision on whether or not Desjardins will remain behind the bench for the Kings beyond this year will be made at the end of the season. The team is 19-25-6 under Desjardins since he took over for John Stevens back in early November.
Florida Panthers Tried To Acquire Mark Stone
The Florida Panthers have cleared a large amount of cap room this season by trading away players like Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann, and many have speculated that they’ll use it in free agency on targets like Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. While that may be true, it didn’t stop the team from going after another big fish at the trade deadline. Head coach Dale Tallon tells George Richards of The Athletic (subscription required) that the team made a “good offer” to the Ottawa Senators to try and get Mark Stone before the talented winger eventually went to the Vegas Golden Knights.
Stone is expected to sign a long-term extension with the Golden Knights, something Richards believes the Panthers were also willing to do if they could acquire the 26-year old. It makes sense, given the cap room that Florida has and already exceptional talent up front to surround Stone with. Interestingly though the team already has Mike Hoffman in the fold, who was unceremoniously ushered out of Ottawa after a very public feud with former Senators captain Erik Karlsson. It’s obviously not clear where Hoffman and Stone stand, but it didn’t stop the team from trying to acquire the latter.
Tallon admits that the team will be “very aggressive” at the end of the season, using their draft capital and cap space to improve the team. With a forward core already consisting of Hoffman, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck and Evgeni Dadonov the team has some real scoring punch. Adding a player like Stone or Panarin would make them even more dangerous, and with somewhere around $22MM in cap space (depending on where the ceiling lands) they have the room to do it and other things. The Panthers also own nine picks in the upcoming draft and could flip those for some more help.
At the very least, the fact that the Panthers were going hard to try and land a player of Stone’s caliber should be encouraging to the fan base. While this season hasn’t gone as hoped, there should be real excitement for an offseason that should be filled with fireworks.
2019 Trade Deadline Day Recap
The trade deadline for the 2018-19 season has come and gone, with teams all around the league loading up for a Stanley Cup run. This year saw a nearly unprecedented level of skill available, though things got started quite early. Before deadline day, names like Matt Duchene, Brandon Montour, Mats Zuccarello, Charlie Coyle, Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist and Nick Jensen all switched teams. However, the day was no disappointment; a slow pace early on ended in fireworks right before the deadline and as deal trickled in right after. Below is a complete list of the 21 trades featuring all but seven of the NHL’s teams made on February 25th alone (chronologically):
To Anaheim Ducks:
D Patrick Sieloff
To Ottawa Senators:
F Brian Gibbons
To New Jersey Devils:
2022 fifth-round pick
To Columbus Blue Jackets:
G Keith Kinkaid
To Winnipeg Jets:
F Kevin Hayes
To New York Rangers:
F Brendan Lemieux
2019 first-round pick (top-3 protected)
2022 conditional fourth-round pick (if Winnipeg wins Stanley Cup)
To Montreal Canadiens:
F Jordan Weal
To Arizona Coyotes:
F Michael Chaput
To Florida Panthers:
F Cliff Pu
Future Considerations
To Carolina Hurricanes:
F Tomas Jurco (AHL contract)
Future Considerations
To Colorado Avalanche:
F Derick Brassard
2020 conditional sixth-round pick (no pick if Brassard re-signs)
To Florida Panthers:
2020 third-round pick
To Columbus Blue Jackets:
D Adam McQuaid
To New York Rangers:
D Julius Bergman
2019 fourth-round pick
2019 seventh-round pick
Vegas Golden Knights Acquire, Extend Mark Stone
The Vegas Golden Knights have made their big deadline splash, acquiring Mark Stone from the Ottawa Senators according to several reports including Bob McKenzie of TSN. The Senators will receive prospect Erik Brannstrom, forward Oscar Lindberg and a 2020 second-round selection (DAL). Tobias Lindberg will also go to Vegas in order to even out the contract slots. Stone himself told TSN that he is close to an extension with the Golden Knights. The deal is expected to be an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $9.5MM. The extension will not be officially signed until March 1st due to the tagging rule.
Stone, 26, is one of the most dynamic two-way wingers in the entire league and is having another excellent season. With 62 points in 59 games he is on track to blow by his previous career-high of 64, and will pass the 30-goal threshold for the first time in his career. Not only is he an effective offensive player, but Stone has repeatedly proven to be an elite defensive winger and routinely creates turnovers by stripping opposing players of the puck. He has received Selke Trophy votes for the last four seasons, even finishing sixth in 2017 despite the award usually going to centers.
That kind of all-around talent is why Stone was so coveted at the deadline, and why the Senators tried desperately to sign him to an extension. Apparently that couldn’t be worked out for whatever reason so the team cashed in for the best package available. Brannstrom, the 15th-overall pick from 2017, is having an excellent season as a 19-year old in the AHL and has impressed every step of the way. With 28 points in 41 games for the Chicago Wolves there are few defensemen in the minor leagues that can carry the puck as well as the new Senators prospect, and he has been repeatedly compared to Erik Karlsson over the last few years. Obviously that will put huge expectations on the young defenseman, but Ottawa did well to land a prospect of his stature.
Still, it is surprising that the team did not secure a first-round pick along with Brannstrom given the reported ask in recent days. The Senators do now have a huge number of picks in the next few drafts but watched their top three scorers walk out the door in the last few days. They’ll have to build quickly as the 2021 timeline that owner Eugene Melnyk suggested for contention is coming fast.