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Snapshots: NHL Draft, Ovechkin, Crosby, Guentzel

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Yesterday, the NHL postponed the 2020 NHL Draft, which had been set to take place in Montreal on June 26-27. The league did not however indicate what the plan was to make up the event, which must occur in some form or fashion prior to the 2020-21 season. However, Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic that there are three possible solutions for the draft make-up. The least likely would be that the draft is simply postponed to a later date and takes place in Montreal as initially planned. LeBrun does not believe that a full draft, complete with teams, prospects, and fans alike in attendance, is a realistic option. Slightly more likely would be a scaled-down version, which LeBrun compares to the post-lockout draft in 2005, that still takes place in Montreal but with far less fanfare, but even this seems unlikely. The outcome most see occurring, falling in line with what junior leagues have decided for their own drafts, would be a virtual NHL Draft, wherein teams make their picks live from their individual war rooms. LeBrun mentions the possibility of a centralized location, in Montreal or elsewhere, with team reps and top prospects in attendance to react to the virtual selections.

If the draft does move to a virtual format, LeBrun reports that the league has promised Montreal that they will receive either the 2021 or 2022 NHL Draft. He adds that the NHL may even consider combining the NHL Entry Draft and NHL Expansion Draft into one week-long event in Montreal next summer. Given the rabid fan base of the city, it would be as good a location as any – barring Seattle itself maybe – to hold the Expansion Draft. If Montreal were to lose the draft this year only to gain two drafts next year, that would be quite the consolation prize.

  • Count arguably the two biggest names in hockey as supporters of calling the regular season and jumping right into the playoffs. On a conference call today among representatives of each of the Metropolitan Division teams, Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and Washington’s Alex Ovechkin lobbied for the NHL to skip the remaining regular season games and resume play with the first round of the postseason, in whatever format they choose. Crosby opined that playing as many regular season games as possible would be best for the integrity of the season, but he “wouldn’t mind starting right at the playoffs.” Ovechkin was more direct, saying that he is “bored” with the league’s current pause and that his Capitals “don’t want to play those extra games” and would “rather start the playoffs right away.” Unsurprisingly, Carolina’s Jordan Staal, whose Hurricanes are safely in the postseason right now, agrees with Ovechkin and Crosby, while brother Marc Staal of the New York Rangers, who were hot before the league postponed its action, would rather resume the regular season in hopes of getting in. Curiously though, Columbus’ Nick Foligno, whose Blue Jackets would be in the standard playoff structure by total points but not by points percentage, the likely determinant of qualification, supported a jump right to the postseason, while the New York Islanders’ Anders Lee, whose team is in the opposite situation, preferred to finish the regular season. Opinions are sure to change based on the length of the league’s pause, the options for returning to action, and the potential format of postseason play, but for now there is major support behind surrendering the regular season in favor of an immediate postseason of some sort.
  • There are few NHL stakeholders who are benefiting from the current indefinite break in action. One of the only exceptions is Crosby’s teammate, Jake Guentzel. Guentzel suffered a shoulder injury in late December and was given a four-to-six-month recovery window following surgery. In a normal league year, that likely meant that Guentzel would be lucky to play again this season, only able to return for the playoffs, and almost certainly wouldn’t be able to get back to full strength. However, given the delay of the current pause, the status quo has shifted. Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review relays word from GM Jim Rutherford that Guentzel’s rehab is going well and the team is optimistic that he will play again if the season resumes. Especially considering the strong likelihood that the NHL will need a mini training camp for teams to get back to game speed, Guentzel may even be back at full strength before a potential resumption of the regular season or start of the postseason in June or July. Guentzel recorded 43 points in 39 games playing with an injury-depleted forward corps prior to his own injury and would be a major asset for the Penguins, who would be the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division if the playoffs began based on the current standings.

Injury Notes: Staal, Weegar, Drouin, Coburn

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It looks like Marc Staal is nearing a return to the Rangers lineup.  The defenseman told reporters, including Mollie Walker of the New York Post, that he’s hoping to return next week.  Staal last played on November 7th before undergoing ankle surgery due to an infection in his ankle.  Head coach David Quinn has suggested that he’d like to give the veteran a full week of on-ice workouts before re-inserting him into the lineup though so Staal may have to wait a little longer than he’d like before he suits up again.  Through 11 games so far this season, he has a goal and an assist while logging a career-low 18:25 per game.

Other injury notes from around the league:

  • Florida is set to welcome MacKenzie Weegar back into their lineup on Saturday. Head coach Joel Quenneville told Jameson Olive of the Panthers’ website (Twitter link) that the defenseman has been cleared to return from his upper-body injury, one that caused him to miss the last eight games.  The 25-year-old was off to a hot start offensively before getting injured; his 10 points through 17 games was two-thirds of the way to his career-high that was set last season.
  • Canadiens winger Jonathan Drouin met with reporters today, including Sportsnet’s Eric Engels, to discuss the injury he sustained back on November 15th. The incident occurred when he fell and landed awkwardly on his wrist, tearing a tendon and didn’t have anything to do with a hard hit he had received earlier in the game.  The original timeline for his recovery was eight weeks and so far, he appears to be on track with his recovery.
  • Lightning defenseman Braydon Coburn suffered a lower-body injury early in today’s game, the team announced (Twitter link). Tampa Bay was playing seven blueliners in the game anyway and will have Erik Cernak available to return from suspension so if Coburn misses any time beyond this, they likely won’t need to bring someone up to replace him.

Marc Staal Undergoes Ankle Surgery

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Marc Staal has had a rough last couple of weeks as he spent time as a healthy scratch.  Now, the blueliner will be missing more time as the Rangers announced (Twitter link) that he has undergone surgery due to an infection in his ankle and he will be re-evaluated in two weeks.

The 33-year-old has played in 11 games so far this season and is averaging a career-low 18:25 per night.  While his offensive production has been limited, he sits second on the team behind fellow defenseman Jacob Trouba in blocks per game with two.

With some of New York’s younger rearguards making a push for regular playing time, Staal’s role has been reduced and with him out of the picture for at least the next two weeks, he could find it even harder to draw back into the lineup if Ryan Lindgren does well in his absence.  Brendan Smith, who has spent time on the wing this year, could also be shifted back on the blueline.  With those two options available, the Rangers likely won’t need to recall anyone from AHL Hartford to take his place.

Staal has two years remaining on his contract with a $5.7MM cap hit.  Considering his diminishing role this season, he was already a speculative buyout candidate in June.  This issue, even though it’s a shorter-term one, won’t help his cause on being kept around for the final year of his deal.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $80,489,799 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kaapo Kakko (three years, $925K)
F Vitali Kravtsov (three years, $925K)
D Adam Fox (three years, $925K)
G Igor Shesterkin (two years, $925K)
D Yegor Rykov (two years, $925K)
F Filip Chytil (two years, $894K)
F Lias Andersson (two years, $894K)
F Brett Howden (two years, $863K)
D Libor Hajek (two years, $833K)
G Alexandar Georgiev (one year, $792K)

Potential Bonuses:

Shesterkin: $2.85MM
Kakko: $2.65MM
Kravtsov: $850K
Fox: $850K
Andersson: $850K
Chytil: $350K
Georgiev: $133K

The Rangers are in a fantastic position to be successful for the next several years as the team hit the jackpot in the draft and with being able to sign several of their top prospects this summer. Obviously, the most attractive of the bunch will be Kakko, the team’s second-overall pick in this year’s draft, who is expected to jump into the Rangers’ top-six immediately and is supposed to be more NHL-ready than any of the 2019 lottery picks. The 18-year-old scored 22 goals last year in the Liiga, playing alongside adults and is believed to be ready. On the other hand, the team also signed their ninth-overall pick in 2018, Vitali Kravtsov, who also spent last season playing with adults as he tallied eight goals in 50 games in the KHL. While he is expected to begin play with the Rangers next season, he may be penciled into more of a third-line role to begin with.

New York also brought in a pair of quality defenseman, which included trading for Fox, who forced a trade out of Carolina to get to the Rangers. The team then signed him to a three-year entry-level contract, prying him away from a senior season at Harvard. Fox, had a monster year as a blueliner, posting nine goals and 48 points in 33 games for the Crimson and looks ready to step into their blueline immediately. The team also managed to sign Rykov, their fifth-round pick from 2016, who has now played three full seasons in the KHL and could be ready to step in, although with the depth on their blueline, Rykov could start the season in the AHL.

On top of all that, the Rangers also managed to nab a stud goaltending prospect as well, signing Shestorkin, who many wondered whether he would ever come over to North America. At 23 years, old, Shesterkin has been a starter in the KHL for three straight years, putting up amazing numbers. Last season in 28 games, he posted a 1.11 GAA and a .953 save percentage. With the team’s goaltending situation likely looking different in the next few years, Shesterkin is the most likely heir apparent on the team. One player who could stand in his way is Georgiev, who only seems to have gotten better in the last year. While his overall numbers weren’t that impressive (33 games, 2.91 GAA, .914 save percentage), it did improve over the course of the year as the 23-year-old posted a 2.49 GAA and a .927 save percentage in 17 appearances after the all-star break, suggesting he could also find himself as the future.

The team also has to find out about what it has in both Chytil and Andersson. Both drafted in the first-round back in 2017, the two centers haven’t proven that they are part of their future yet. Chytil showed some success last year, scoring 11 goals and 23 points in 75 games, while Andersson got into 42 games last year, but only scored two goals and six points. Both must show they are ready to take that next step or they could find themselves replaced down the road. The team also has Howden, who appeared in 66 games last season and also must prove he can take on a bigger role. He tallied six goals and 23 points last year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Chris Kreider ($4.63MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Strome ($3.1MM, RFA)
F Matt Beleskey ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Jesper Fast ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Greg McKegg ($750K, UFA)
F Boo Nieves ($700K, UFA)

The most intriguing story that likely will go on all season is what will the Rangers do with Kreider. The 28-year-old winger posted 28 goals and 52 points last season, but after the team shelled out quite a bit of money this offseason for other key pieces to their franchise, there are a number of questions whether the team can now afford to keep Kreider, who becomes a free-agent this summer. While it’s still possible that New York could trade Kreider before the season starts, it’s possible the team will keep the winger to bolster their ever improving top-six and deal with his contract later or potentially move him at the trade deadline. The problem is that if the Rangers become playoff relevant next season, the team might have a difficult time moving out Kreider and then might decide to hold onto him instead, potentially losing him for nothing on July 1.

Many players will have to prove their value to get a new contract. Namestnikov, who performed well with the Lightning, has been a disappointing since coming over in the Ryan McDonagh trade. The winger scored 22 goals in 2017-18, but still struggled after the trade and then managed to get 11 goals last year. With a $4MM contract, the team could use some cap relief, but have failed to find a taker for the 26-year-old. Strome will be a restricted free agent still after next season, but if he can duplicate what he did with New York last year, he likely could have a future with the team. Despite starting the first 19 games with Edmonton with just one goal, the trade to New York got him going as he scored 18 goals in 63 games after that.

Fast, Beleskey, Nieves and McKegg all are now depth options who will have to fight to win bottom-line depth and prove their value for a potential new contract.

Two Years Remaining

G Henrik Lundqvist ($8.5MM, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($5.7MM, UFA)
D Brendan Smith ($4.35MM, UFA)
F Pavel Buchnevich ($3.25MM, RFA)

The team still has two more years remaining with Lundqvist at a high AAV, but the team has also seen the 37-year-old’s play continue to decline. While his GAA has dropped consistently in the last few years, it was his save percentage that dropped to a .907 save percentage, the lowest mark of his career. Much of that could have a lot to do with the Rangers’ rebuilding process this year. The team has to hope that if they can limit his starts (he played in 53 games last season) and with the improvement of both the offense and defense this season, Lundqvist should be able to bounce back. With the addition of Shesterkin and development of Georgiev, that is quite possible to pull back his starts into the 40-range.

The team is stuck with a pair of veterans in Staal and Smith. Both were discussed as potential buyout options this summer, but it was decided that neither move would have helped the team in the long-term. Staal continues to be a solid, but unspectacular blueliner and should continue in that role, while Smith will have to prove he belongs on the team and could find himself buried in the AHL as he was in the 2017-18 season due to his struggles.

The team has hopes that Buchnevich will continue to progress this season. He has gotten better each season in the league and is currently on a bridge-deal to prove his value. With 21 goals and 38 points last season, Buchnevich could be a key component of the Rangers future, especially if he can take his game up a notch next year. Ultimately, the 24-year-old is playing for a big contract in two years.

Three Years Remaining

F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM, UFA)

The Rangers finally got what they wanted last season when Zibanejad took that next step and proved to be the No. 1 center the team has been waiting for for years. The 26-year-old put up a career-high 30 goals, but more importantly saw his points improve from 47 points in 2017-18 to 74 points last year. With that next step taken, the Rangers have now added the firepower next to him to give the team one of the top lines in the league with Zibanejad as the centerpiece. The Rangers signed him to a five-year deal back in 2017 when he tallied just 14 goals and 37 points in 56 games, gambling on his potential, which now looks like quite a steal as the team still has three more years of a No. 1 center for a very reasonable price.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Artemi Panarin ($11.64MM through 2025-26)
D Jacob Trouba ($8MM through 2025-26)
D Brady Skjei ($5.25MM through 2023-24)

The Rangers took the next step in their rebuilding project this summer when they spent $19.64MM AAV on two key players. They had to go higher than they wanted to for Panarin, but the Rangers inevitably sealed the deal and locked him up for the next seven years, giving them one of the best left wings in the game and another key piece to turning the franchise around. With Panarin and Zibanejad already locked into the first line, the franchise has a solid core to start the season. Who will play on the right side will be determined at training camp. The 27-year-old Panarin put up impressive numbers last season, scoring 27 goals and adding a career-high 87 points last season. The team also went out and traded for Trouba, who for years had made it clear he didn’t want to be in Winnipeg. Once the Rangers acquired him, it took a little time, but they were able to extend him for seven more years. The pressure will be on Trouba, who now has everything he wants, which includes becoming the team’s No. 1 defenseman. He will have to prove that he is up to it in New York.

As for Skjei, the defenseman rebounded last year with a stronger season after struggling in 2017-18. Despite seeing his offensive numbers drop from 39 points to 25 and finishing 2017-18 with a minus-27 rating from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign, the Rangers still signed Skjei to a six-year, $31.5MM deal. While his points total didn’t change at all, his plus/minus did improve as he finished with just a minus-four rating last season. The hope is that his development will continue and he will remain a key top-four option for New York for years.

Buyouts

D Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.48MM in 2019-20; $6.08 in 2020-21; $1.43MM in 2021-22 & 2022-23)
D Dan Girardi ($3.61MM in 2018-19; $1.11MM from 2019-20 to 2022-23)
F Ryan Spooner ($300K through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Brendan Lemieux
D Anthony DeAngelo

The cap situation will only get more challenging. Despite the Shattenkirk buyout, the team will have to pay out $6.08MM for him next season, which will make it difficult to continue to upgrade the team, another reason why Kreider might be difficult to re-sign.

However, the team does still need to sign two younger restricted free agents in Lemieux and DeAngelo. The team likes Lemieux’s irritating style of play and hope he can continue to improve in a bottom-six role with the team. DeAngelo also seems to have turned the corner and looks to be a lock on the team’s defense after several years of waiting on his skills to come around. With the cap struggles it’s dealing with this year, the team is still holding out hope that both players will eventually accept their qualifying offers to save the team money, while both players would prefer to get a little more.

Best Value: Zibanejad
Worst Value: Smith

Looking Ahead

The Rangers have pulled off an impressive rebuilding campaign that started in February of 2018 and in just a year in a half, the team has managed to bring in a number of top players and talent to give the team the faces of the franchise it needs to be competitive for many years into the future. With the impressive array of prospects it has managed to sign this offseason, the team has a bright future and a present that could begin as early as this year with Panarin and Trouba now under contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Buyout Watch: Most Likely Candidates As Buyout Window Nears

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At this time next week, there could already be a few notable additions to the impending unrestricted free agent class. The NHL’s buyout window is set to open on Saturday, June 15th, after which teams will have 15 days to buy out unwanted contracts before the month ends and free agency begins on July 1st. This year in particular, there seem to be a surplus of teams upset with their current salary cap position and itching to remove a contract from their books that has not yielded the expected results. Yet, at a cost of two-thirds of the remaining salary and double the remaining term (in most cases), as well as the side effects of pay and bonus structure, it may not always be the best route. The following are some of the top names that could be bought out later this month and the cost to do so:

Corey Perry, Anaheim Ducks

Contract Remaining: Two years, $8.625MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $2.625MM/$6.625MM/$2MM/$2MM

The most recent name to hit the buyout rumor mill, Perry’s contract is undoubtedly an albatross and it is difficult to see him getting back to the pace and production that initially warranted his high cap hit. A buyout would give the Ducks immediate relief this year and $2MM in years three and four is not bad. However, the 2020-21 cost is not ideal. However, it’s hard to see anyone trading for Perry’s contract with so many unknowns about his game, so this could be the only choice for Anaheim.

Dion Phaneuf, Los Angeles Kings

Contract Remaining: Two years, $7MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $2.917MM/$5.417MM/$1.417MM/$1.417MM

The Kings want to get younger and faster and want some cap space to improve. Moving Phaneuf accomplishes all of that, and L.A. has good blue line depth to fall back on in the short-term. Like Perry, this buyout hurts in year two, but is otherwise tolerable. The Kings will try to trade Phaneuf and may succeed, otherwise this is a likely buyout scenario.

Scott Darling, Carolina Hurricanes

Contract Remaining: Two years, $4.15MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $1.233MM/$2.333MM/$1.183MM/$1.183MM

One of the earliest reported buyout rumors was that of Darling, and for good reason. The former star backup has not panned out as a starter for Carolina, a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Final with a tandem of a UFA flier and a veteran waiver claim. The Hurricanes may not have any experienced goalies under contract for next season yet besides Darling, but that won’t stop them from moving on and going back to the free agent market or their talented pipeline for answers, especially with this very palatable buyout and few cap concerns.

Ryan Callahan, Tampa Bay Lightning

Contract Remaining: One year, $5.8MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $2.667MM/$1.567MM

Callahan won’t be in Tampa one way or another next season. The team is facing a difficult cap crunch and there’s no room for the veteran, who has played little role in recent years. A buyout doesn’t give the Bolts the full savings they’d hope for this upcoming season and a trade likely remains preferable, but Callahan’s stock is not high and a buyout remains the more likely resolution.

Valeri Nichushkin, Dallas Stars

Contract Remaining: One year, $2.95MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $700K/$450K

Nichushkin’s age makes his buyout fall under the second category of buyout wherein only one-third of the remaining salary is accounted for. As such, his buyout would mean almost nothing for Dallas’ cap calculations. The young winger failed to score a goal last season as a regular player and both sides would seemingly benefit from a split. It’s not certain that the Stars will move on, but should they choose to, a buyout is a painless option.

Brendan Smith, New York Rangers

Contract Remaining: Two years, $4.35MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $971K/$3.146MM/$1.146MM/$1.146MM

Smith has been a disaster in New York and certainly not the player that the Rangers saw perform well in the postseason as a deadline addition in 2016-17. It’s hard to see a fit for Smith moving forward, even more so than other unfriendly defense contracts like Marc Staal and Kevin Shattenkirk. It’s even more difficult to see him having any trade value, so the team would have to go the buyout route. It’s not a terrible option, but as frequently happens, the year one savings come back to bite with a hefty year two increase.

Karl Alzner, Montreal Canadiens

Contract Remaining: Three years, $4.625MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $1.069MM/$4.194MM/$2.194MM/$1.069MM/$1.069MM/$1.069MM

Alzner had one point in nine games with Montreal last season, which is enough to say he’s not in the Canadiens’ long-term plans. He could be on their books for a long time to come with a potential six-year buyout structure, but at a relatively low cost most years. Alzner needs a fresh start and it’s fair to assume that Montreal will give him one.

Milan Lucic, Edmonton Oilers

Contract Remaining: Four years, $6MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $3.625MM/$5.625MM/$4.125MM/$5.625MM/$625K/$625K/$625K/$625K

Loui Eriksson, Vancouver Canucks

Contract Remaining: Three years, $6MM cap hit
Buyout Cost (each year): $5.556MM/$5.556MM/$3.556MM/$556K/$556K/$556K

Lucic and Eriksson have been tied together by rumors all off-season and one more thing they share: poor buyout possibilities. As bad as Lucic’s contract is, based on his drop-off in performance, his buyout is still very expensive for four more years and then extends another four years beyond that. The Oilers would be better off continuing to search for some way to trade him, no matter how slim the chances. As for Eriksson, his front-loaded contract makes a buyout pointless. The Canucks would pay almost the same amount in each of the next two years as if he was still on the team, then would have the cap penalty for another four years after that. Vancouver and Edmonton are likely stuck with these players, unless of course they swap them for each other.

Jesper Fast To Miss Rest Of Season

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The New York Rangers won’t be making it to the playoffs this season, so there won’t be enough time for Jesper Fast to return from injury. Head coach David Quinn told reporters today that Fast will miss the rest of the year, while Marc Staal and Chris Kreider will miss tonight’s game as well.

Fast, 27, will end this season with just 20 points in 66 games, a disappointing year for a player who had reached new highs in 2017-18. The two-way forward is still an effective option for the Rangers, but hasn’t shown much upside and will be an interesting player to watch this summer. Heading into the final season of his current contract and carrying a $1.85MM cap hit, he could be another player on the move as the Rangers continue their rebuild. That said, he has long been regarded as one of the hardest working players on the team and is routinely praised by teammates and the coaching staff, even winning New York’s “Players’ Player” award for the last four years.

With so much turnover on the roster of late, perhaps the team will want to keep Fast around on another multi-year contract to help guide the young core. With offensive players coming through the pipeline, his defense and versatility can still be quite useful.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have gone on a 2-5-3 run over their last ten games and are now sitting in 27th place in the NHL. It seems unlikely they’ll fall any lower than that and improve their draft lottery chances, but any success could see them skyrocket up the standings. They take on the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight.

Eastern Notes: Buchnevich, Kreider, Johansson, Krug, Tavares

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No one really knows what the plans are of general manager Jeff Gorton and the New York Rangers. The team could continue quietly rebuilding this summer or accelerate that process and bring in a big-name free-agent or two. Regardless, many of the team’s decisions will depend on what their overall plans are.

That will certainly be the case in how the Rangers intend to deal restricted free agent Pavel Buchnevich. While the 23-year-old hasn’t been as impressive this season as last point-wise, Buchnevich has scored a career-high 18 goals and with his entry-level contract ending, is in line for a significant raise. With quality restricted free agents getting more and more money on their next contracts, Buchnevich could be an interesting case.

The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) writes that much will have to do with the Rangers’ plans. If the team intends to make a significant splash in free agency, going after an Artemi Panarin-type of player, the team might be better served locking him up to a long-term extension to keep his salary down. However, if the team intends to quietly go one more year into its rebuild, then the team would have ample cap room to sign him to a shorter-term contract until they know what they have in him.

  • The Rangers announced that forward Chris Kreider will be out Monday and remains day-to-day with a lower-body injury. He has been out since  Tuesday. Kreider has been a key asset to the team’s offense as he has 26 goals this season.
  • The Boston Bruins received some good news as the Boston Globe’s Matt Porter reports that Marcus Johansson, who has been out of the lineup since Mar. 5 with a lung contusion after colliding with Carolina’s Micheal Ferland, is back on the ice. He is in a gold non-contact sweater, suggesting that he hasn’t been cleared for contact. The 28-year-old was acquired by the Bruins in a trade deadline acquisition, but has appeared in just four games for Boston, registering only an assist. Porter also notes that Torey Krug is also wearing a non-contact jersey at practice today. Krug has been out since Mar. 12 with a concussion.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs caught a break after John Tavares took a tough cross-check from the New York Rangers’ Marc Staal, as the star center was at practice today, according to TSN’s Kristen Shilton. The Maple Leafs have lost five of their last seven after falling in overtime to the struggling Rangers.

Snapshots: Allen, Heiskanen, Rangers

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Despite the vast improvements made by the St. Louis Blues this off-season, the common perception is that their fate still lies in the hands of goaltender Jake Allen. Last season, in the first of a new four-year, $17.4MM contract, Allen took a major step back. The 27-year-old had been a great success as a part-time goalie early in his career and looked like he was ready for full-time duty after the 2016-17 campaign, but was unable to handle the workload. Allen’s appearances actually dropped last season from 61 to 59 as backup Carter Hutton took over the starter’s job with consistent and impressive play. Allen posted a .906 save percentage and career-worst 2.75 GAA and failed to record a plus quality starts percentage. That has to change next season. As The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton writes, Allen is the key to St. Louis’ success (or failure) in 2018-19. With Hutton gone, replaced with journeyman Chad Johnson, the pressure is back on Allen to be the legitimate starter that he has shown flashes of. The Blues should be applauded for re-hauling their forward core this off-season, somehow managing to add Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Tyler Bozak, and Patrick Maroon without going over the salary cap. The team also continues to sport one of the deeper blue line’s in the league. However, they need consistent capable play out of Allen or it could be all for not. St. Louis has a contender’s roster if only they can get Allen back on track.

  • Dallas Stars super-prospect Miro Heiskanen is all-in on making the team this season. The 19-year-old is just one year removed from being selected third overall in the NHL Draft and is ready to show that he was worth the selection. Stars beat writer Mark Stepenski reports that Heiskanen has already arrived in Dallas and has begun working out with teammates, including veteran leaders Jamie Benn and Ben Bishop. The young defenseman has worked hard this summer and is preparing to wow the Stars’ coaches and executives in training camp. For their part, the Stars’ decision-makers already believe that Heiskanen is ready, although they caution that there will be some adjustments to make and that expectations may be getting too high. Some have even stated that Heiskanen is a legitimate threat to No. 1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin of the Buffalo Sabres in the upcoming Calder Trophy race. They might not be too far off; like Dahlin, Heiskanen has two years of pro experience already, in the Finnish Liiga, and possess both elite skating ability and next-level awareness and positioning. With those skills already at a pro level, it might not be too difficult of a transition for Heiskanen after all.
  • The New York Rangers not only lost captain Ryan McDonagh last season, but they also lost alternate Rick Nash and head coach Alain Vigneault. In speaking with new coach David Quinn, NHL.com’s Dan Rosen discovered that the freshman bench boss would like to get to know his locker room and see how the season begins before naming a new leader. Quinn said:

    “We’ve talked about it as an organization. I think a captain emerges. You don’t want to put a burden on somebody that isn’t ready for it. So I think that will just happen one way or the other. It either will happen that someone will emerge and separate themselves as someone who is clearly going to be the captain, or it won’t happen. I think that will take care of itself.”

    Frequent alternates Marc Staal or Jesper Fast could emerge as favorites, but neither jumps out as a spectacular candidate for captain. Long-time forward Mats Zuccarello also wore the “A” often, but one has to wonder if it would be worth giving the “C” to a player on an expiring contract who seems unlikely to earn an extension. The same could be said for top center Kevin Hayes. While it is uncommon, Quinn could lean towards awarding the captaincy to star goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who Rosen writes he has already gotten to know very well. Young defenseman Brady Skjei, fresh off of a six-year extension this summer, appears to be the cornerstone of the Rangers’ rebuild and could emerge as a top candidate. As Quinn says, only time will tell.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $73,823,569 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Pavel Buchnevich (one year remaining, $925K)
D Neal Pionk (one year remaining, $925K)
F Lias Andersson (three years remaining, $894K)
F Filip Chytil (three years remaining, $894K)
D Anthony DeAngelo (one year remaining, $863K)
G Alexandar Georgiev (two years remaining, $793K)

Potential Bonuses

Pionk: $850K
Andersson: $850K
Deangelo: $400K
Chytil: $350K

Total: $2.45MM

With the team in quick rebuild mode, there are some entry-level deals already and if the team continues to trend in that direction, they will have quite a bit more. The team’s most prominent player at the NHL level to date would be Buchnevich, who improved on his rookie campaign with a 14-goal, 43-point season last year. He saw more ice time as well, improving from 13:16 ATOI to 15:01 as well as saw significant time on the team’s power play, potting five goals and 11 assists with the man advantage and has earned himself a solid spot in the team’s top-six. Another improved season could see him being an expensive restricted free agent.

The team has high expectations for their two 2017 first-rounders in Andersson and Chytil. Both have shown excellent skills and have received some time playing for the NHL with Andersson seeing seven games, while saw nine games. Both are expected to earn time with the Rangers out of training camp, but both may find themselves on bottom-six lines unless they can prove that they can center the second or third lines in training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Kevin Hayes ($5.18MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Rob O’Gara ($874K, RFA)
F Cody McLeod ($750K, UFA)
D Fredrik Claesson ($863K, RFA)
F Peter Holland ($675K, UFA)
D Steven Kampfer ($650K, UFA)
G Marek Mazanec ($650K, UFA)

The team agreed to a one-year deal with Hayes, avoiding arbitration, but now face the possibility that Hayes could walk away at the end of the season as he will be unrestricted, which will force the team into two possible directions, including attempting to work out a long-term deal with the team after Jan. 1, 2019, or trading him, possibly at the trading deadline if the two sides can’t agree on anything. Hayes, who has been a jack of all trades playing multiple positions, seems to have developed into a solid center as he produced his best season ever, which included 25 goals, eight more than any previous year. The question is, do the Rangers view him as a fixture in their lineup as they continue to rebuild?

At age 30, Zuccarrello still puts up solid numbers, but despite the high-end minutes that the veteran gets, he falls into a similar category to that of Hayes where you have to ask whether he is in the team’s long-term plans. The winger is penciled in to play on the team’s top line once again, but has only put up 31 goals over the past two seasons. He does produce quite a few assists (81 over the past two years), but what the Rangers need more than anything is goals. Zuccarello will also turn 32 before he begins his next contract and at that age, how long are the Rangers willing to commit to him?

Two Years Remaining

F Chris Kreider ($4.63MM, UFA)
F Ryan Spooner ($4MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($4MM, UFA)
F Jimmy Vesey ($2.28MM, UFA)
F Matt Beleskey ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Jesper Fast ($1.85MM, UFA)

Kreider is coming off a tough year in which he had to deal with blood clots and had surgery to relieve the pressure and missed almost two months of time. The 27-year-old didn’t have as solid of a season as he tallied just 16 goals in 58 games, which is a far cry from the 28 goals he scored in 2016-17 although a lot of that is due to the fact that his playing time dipped as the team didn’t want to play him too many minutes due to the blood clot issue. Regardless with a full offseason to rest and recuperate, Kreider should be able to bounce back as one of the team’s top scorers.

The team also have high expectations from two other forwards that the team acquired through at the trade deadline a year ago in Namestnikov and Spooner. Namestnikov was the biggest name to arrive in New York in the Ryan McDonagh trade with Tampa Bay. He was a key player for the Lightning, posting 20 goals and 44 points with them, but he actually lost playing time once he arrived in New York and put up just two goals and four points in 19 games. The team hopes that a new coach and proper training camp with his new team will make quite a difference. Spooner came over in the Rick Nash trade with Boston and has posted solid numbers with the Bruins over the past few seasons and could turn out to be a top-six wing or third-line center in New York. Between the two teams, Spooner combined for 13 goals and 28 assists.

The team also expect big things from Vesey, who signed as a undrafted collegiate free agent a couple of years ago and if finally starting to show that he belongs in the NHL. The 25-year-old winger has put up solid numbers for two years, but could find himself getting more opportunities in the team’s rebuild. In two years, he’s combined for 33 goals and 55 points.

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The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:

Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining

As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.

Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining

The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.

Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining

Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.

Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining

For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining

When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.

Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining

I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.

Nashville Predators: None

GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.

New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining

The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining

The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.

New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining

Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining

No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk’s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.

Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…

 

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