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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Edmonton Oilers

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2023-24. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Edmonton Oilers.

Who are the Oilers thankful for?

Connor McDavid

The more things change, the more they stay the same, and that’s held true for the Oilers’ generational talent. McDavid is currently carrying 34 points through 22 games, tied with Cale Makar for eighth in the league in scoring. He’s reached that mark despite a slow start, scoring just four points in the first eight games of November. But things are clicking for the 26-year-old once more, as McDavid has scored an unbelievable 21 points in his last eight games. That’s an 82-game pace of 215.25 points – and while there’s a very slim chance that he ever breaks the 200-point ceiling, the fact that McDavid has held onto that scoring pace over more than a handful of games is incredible. He’s scored in every game over the eight-game stretch, recording multiple points in six of them, and is sticking to  Wayne Gretzky’s tactic of leaning into assists – with 16 of his recent 21 points coming in the form of helpers. The Oilers have faced a lot of adversity this season but McDavid has made it clear that he won’t let it get him down as he looks to top the 153 points he scored last year.

What are the Oilers thankful for?

A stretch of home games.

The Oilers have struggled to get things going on the road this season, with a dismal 4-8-0 record when playing in another team’s barn. That fact hasn’t gelled well with their early schedule, which had them on the road for 11 of their first 19 games. Their longest stretch of home games in November was a four-game stretch early in the month when the team was facing an injury to McDavid and swirling questions about then-head coach Jay Woodcroft. Both factors weighed heavily on Edmonton and they fell 1-3-0 before having to get back on the road.

The cycle seemed to be continuing as they lost their first three games of their most recent road trip – a four-game-long trip around the eastern-US. But with a 5-0 win over the Washington Capitals to cap it off, the Oilers found their momentum just in time for their recent stretch of four home games, and one away game at the neighboring Winnipeg Jets. Edmonton has been on fire now that they’re back at Rogers Place, currently on a six-game winning streak that’s seen them outscore their opponents 31-to-11. They’ve been getting everything they could want in their recent outings, scoring an average of roughly five goals each game and seeing their goaltenders post a collective .947 save percentage.

After a dismal start to the season, the Oilers are now truly looking like a team that can challenge the best in the West. They have four more games at home before they embark on a six-game road trip in late-December. New head coach Kris Knoblauch will hope a strong stretch at home will be enough of a boost to amend the Oilers’ current luck on the road.

What would the Oilers be even more thankful for?

Consistent Goaltending.

The story of Edmonton’s early season has been one of underwhelming goaltending. The team has iced three different goalies this season, with all three recording a save percentage below .900. Starting goalie Stuart Skinner has managed a .888 through 19 games, en route to a 10-7-1 record. This is despite the Oilers facing a league-average xGA/60 (expected goals-against per-60) of 2.54, tied with Winnipeg for the 12th-best mark in the league, per Evolving Hockey. And while the former Calder Trophy runner-up Skinner has improved as of late – recording a .911 save percentage and 9-2-0 record in his last 11 games – there’s still reason to be uncertain in Edmonton’s crease. The Oilers are 3-12-1 when they allow three-or-more goals this season, emphasizing that the team is only as good as the goaltending that they receive. If they want to be true Stanley Cup-contenders, they’ll need to make sure their netminders are just as efficient as their scorers.

What should be on the Oilers holiday wish list?

A lucky trade offer.

The Oilers are clearly not far off from being a very scary team. Their top scorers – McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – are mostly performing as expected; the blueline has seen added help through the continued breakout of Evan Bouchard and the addition of Mattias Ekholm; and it seems Skinner is bringing some reliability back into the crease. But there still seems to be something holding back Edmonton from reaching their full potential. The team has six members of their forward group with fewer than eight points through their first 24 games and their defense seems to strike in waves.

But Edmonton has recently made former eighth-overall pick Philip Broberg available for a trade, something that could prove lucrative as many teams around the league look for a spark on defense. While Broberg’s professional career in North America is off to a choppy start, there are still teams around the league with high hopes for the 22-year-old defenseman. It helps that Broberg is on a cost-controlled deal, recording an $863K cap hit this season and set to become a restricted free agent next year. The right trade could be enough to patch one of the Oilers’ holes, whether it’s bringing in another depth-forward, providing more competition on defense, or adding support between the pipes. The NHL is gearing up for an exciting Trade Deadline and the Oilers could emerge from it with the plenty of hope for the future.

West Notes: Avalanche Reassignments, Draisaitl, Harley

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The Colorado Avalanche have announced that defenseman Caleb Jones and Sam Malinski have been reassigned to the franchise’s AHL affiliate, the Colorado Eagles. The reasoning behind Malinski’s reassignment is relatively clear, the player made his NHL debut last night and now will return to the Eagles to resume playing a regular role there.

With Jones, the reassignment could mean a few things, as outlined by The Athletic’s Peter Baugh. Jones’ reassignment could be a paper transaction to maintain his waiver-exempt status, or it could be an indication that injured blueliners Josh Manson and/or Samuel Girard are healthy and ready to return to head coach Jared Bednar’s lineup.

Some other notes from the Western Conference:

  • The Edmonton Oilers got a crucial win in new head coach Kris Knoblauch’s debut, but the 4-1 victory over the New York Islanders has come at a personal cost to superstar center Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl has been fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the CBA, by the NHL’s Department of Player Safety for what the department termed a “dangerous trip” on Islanders center Bo Horvat.
  • Dallas Stars head coach Peter DeBoer told the media today that defenseman Thomas Harley will be out for tonight’s game when the team hosts the Arizona Coyotes. Harley is, according to DeBoer, dealing with a day-to-day injury, and it was specifically clarified that he is not in concussion protocol. Harley was on the wrong end of a big hit in the most recent Stars contest, so there was fear that his injury could be something more major it but appears the worst has been avoided. Harley has had a solid start to the season on the Stars’ bottom pairing next to Jani Hakanpää and in his absence his spot there is set to go to Joel Hanley.

Who Will Be The NHL’s Next Highest Paid Player?

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Auston Matthews recent extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs has earned him the title of highest-paid player in the NHL. His new deal doesn’t kick in until 2024-25, but at that point, he will make an average annual salary of $13.25MM (CapFriendly) per season for four years. Prior to his new deal, Matthews was the fourth highest-paid player in the game behind Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid and Artemi Panarin.

MacKinnon’s new eight-year $100.8MM deal kicks in this season which will make him the highest-paid player in the league at $12.6MM for this year. His actual salary is much higher than his cap hit at $16.5MM, but the final four years of his deal will back-dive to $9.9MM in salary. McDavid has three years left on his current deal with a cap hit of $12.5MM while Panarin’s deal also concludes in three seasons and pays him $11.642MM annually.

With Matthews having topped MacKinnon’s new extension by over $600K annually the question now becomes, who will be the NHL’s next highest-paid player?

Connor McDavid – McDavid is the obvious answer. He is arguably the best player in the game and undoubtedly the best player in the world with the puck on his stick. The Richmond Hill, Ontario native will be 29 years old when he reaches unrestricted free agency and could essentially ask teams for a blank check and fill in the maximum salary under the salary cap. That is if he remains the best player in the world. While it seems hard to believe there is a world in which McDavid isn’t the game’s most explosive player, three years is a long time, and in hockey, it can be an eternity. There is also another Connor who could be the one to top Matthews’ extension.

Connor Bedard – It seems crazy that Bedard has yet to play a minute in the NHL and he could conceivably be the next highest-paid player in the NHL. But it could happen. Bedard signed his three-year entry-level contract with the Chicago Blackhawks on July 17th and should be a lock to make their opening night lineup. He will become a restricted free agent in 2026, the same time that McDavid becomes a UFA. It is fair to wonder how Bedard will produce once he is playing against men in the NHL, especially given that he will be playing on a bad Blackhawks team that will have its struggles. But he dominated the WHL with 71 goals and 72 assists in 57 games and obliterated the competition at the World Junior Championships with nine goals and 14 assists in 7 games. He’s a phenom, and in three years he could be paid like one.

Leon Draisaitl – Draisaitl has been one of the best bargains in the NHL since signing his eight-year $68MM contract back in August of 2017. All he has done during his six years under this contract is score 50+ goals three times, top 100 points four times, and win a Hart Trophy as well as an Art Ross Trophy. At 27-years-old Draisaitl is coming off the best season of his career having posted 52 goals and 76 assists in 80 games.

All things considered, it seems likely that Draisaitl will top Matthews’ contract two seasons from now when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. The native of Cologne, Germany will be 29 years old, and the salary cap should go up substantially between now and then positioning him to cash in big with any team of his choosing. Draisaitl will likely hold onto that distinction for just one season as McDavid and Bedard will be following right behind him and could top Draisaitl to earn the title of the highest-paid player in the NHL.

Edmonton Oilers Rank Last In Salary Cap Rankings

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Daily Faceoff has ranked the Edmonton Oilers last in salary cap efficiency. This comes as no surprise after the website began its annual salary cap rankings list and after a deep dive into the numbers determined that there isn’t a team in a worse situation financially than the Oilers. It isn’t a shock given the Oilers current salary cap woes. The team finds itself with just 21 players on the roster and only $382,499 in cap space. Though finishing dead last on the list is new, Edmonton ranked second last in last year’s version of the list.

Daily Faceoff’s ranking system looks at no-move clauses, dead cap space, the quality of long-term contracts, bargain contracts, and the good deals versus the bad ones. Unfortunately, based on those criteria, it is easy to see why the Oilers find themselves at the bottom of that list. Edmonton has several problematic contracts on their books, and while they have some bargains like Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The bad deals outweigh the great ones.

Darnell Nurse is a really good defenseman; he eats a ton of minutes for the Oilers and plays a lot of tough situations. However, he does suffer a lot of mental lapses, and at $9.25 million a season, he just doesn’t bring the offensive upside you would like to see in a defenseman making that kind of money. Nurse is also likely to wear down as the miles pile up on his body. Those difficult minutes require that he play with a ton of physicality. It could take its toll on the 28-year-old when he gets on the wrong side of 30.

Some of the other bad contracts on the Oilers are goaltender Jack Campbell at $5MM per season as well as third-line winger Warren Foegele and third-pairing defenceman Brett Kulak at $2.75 million each. The contracts come in addition to the nearly $2MM per year the Oilers are still paying on the James Neal buyout.

On the surface, these contracts don’t look like outrageous overpayments because all the players listed above are still functional NHLers. However, in the flat cap era Campbell, Foegele, and Kulak are all replacement-level NHLers who could have been replaced by other players on contracts of less than $1MM per season. Couple that with the mishandling of Nurse’s previous bridge deals and it all amounts to around $10MM in inefficient salary cap spending that could lead to big problems for the Oilers down the road when they need to offer extensions to McDavid, Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard.

Pacific Notes: Karlsson, Kraken, Oilers

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Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson has made it known he’d like to move to a team that has an eye on winning now.  But with four years left on his contract at a cap hit of $11.5MM, a trade is proving to be difficult to do.  In his latest piece for NBC Sports Bay Area, Sheng Peng examines another possibility for both sides, a mutual contract termination.  He’d be walking away from the remaining $39MM in salary but coming off a Norris Trophy-winning season, it stands to reason he could get a big chunk of that back over the next several seasons with a team that’s more of his choosing.  On the flip side, the Sharks wouldn’t get anything in return but would save a significant amount of cash that they’d otherwise be retaining to help facilitate a move.  It’s not the likeliest of options at this point but if a viable trade fails to materialize, perhaps it’s an option that is considered at some point.

More from the Pacific:

  • Seattle is one of the teams where the backup goalie is not yet set in stone for next season with veteran Chris Driedger set to battle the recently re-signed Joey Daccord for the spot. Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times suggests that the Kraken would be better off with Daccord in the second-string position from an organizational depth perspective since there’s much less of a risk of Driedger and his $3.5MM AAV being claimed than it is for Daccord and his $1.2MM price tag.  Daccord was the better of the two goalies with AHL Coachella Valley last season but Driedger’s NHL career numbers (2.45 GAA, .917 SV% in 65 games) are certainly better than Daccord’s (3.64 GAA, .884 SV% in 19 appearances).
  • Even with the salary cap expected to rise faster starting in 2024-25, it will certainly be difficult for the Oilers to keep both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the fold. Postmedia’s David Staples posits that both middlemen – who could conceivably command the maximum 20% of the cap on their next contracts if they looked to get top dollar – might have to settle for something in the 14% range which, depending on how much the cap moves, could put their contracts both in the $12.5MM territory which is what McDavid is currently making.  Can a team with two deals at that price point still have enough depth to seriously contend?  That’s a question Edmonton certainly hopes they’ll have a chance to answer.  Draisaitl is signed for two more years while McDavid is under contract for three more seasons.

Ken Holland To Honor Final Season Of Contract

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Sportsnet is reporting that Edmonton Oilers president of hockey ops and general manager Ken Holland told the media that the long-time NHL executive intends to honor the final season of his five-year contract. Holland added that he isn’t sure how long he will stay in the role but he has unfinished business.

Edmonton has been a disappointment in each of the four seasons that Holland has been at the helm, they’ve qualified for the post season all four years, however they’ve only advanced past the second round once.  The Oilers had another strong regular season this year going 50-23-9, however they were ousted by the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round in six games.

Holland came into the organization with a lot of fanfare after leading the Detroit Red Wings to multiple Stanley Cups in his time in the motor city. However, in Edmonton he has been unable to build around the two best players in the game in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Holland has never been able to solidify Edmonton’s goaltending which was once again a big part of their undoing in the playoffs. Jack Campbell was brought in from the Toronto Maple Leafs on a five year $25MM contract, but he failed to live up to expectations. Stuart Skinner was fine in the regular season but the young netminder crumbled under the postseason pressure and was yanked several times after putting up an .883 save percentage.

Edmonton has also struggled to build up depth scoring beyond their top six. McDavid, Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins did the heavy lifting this year, but the bottom six was a black hole. Warren Foegele but up 28 points in 67 games but beyond that there wasn’t much.

Holland will have his work cut out for him as he tries to give Edmonton another kick at the can. But given their lack of success in the postseason, fans are getting antsy as the Oilers enter the last couple years of McDavid and Draisaitl’s current contracts.

Pacific Notes: Draisaitl, Kannok Leipert, Ekman-Larsson, Ranford

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Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl’s season may not be over just yet. After getting eliminated in the second round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs by the Vegas Golden Knights, Draisaitl told reporters today, including Sportsnet’s Mark Spector, that he may join Team Germany at the ongoing Men’s World Championship.

If he does go, it would be his sixth appearance for Germany at the tournament, his first since 2019. The 27-year-old, coming off a career-high 128 points in 2022-23, would immediately become the best player at the tournament. Germany’s gotten off to an unlucky start during the tournament, facing stiff competition in their first three games (Sweden, USA, Finland) and losing all of them, in regulation, by one goal. Having recorded 17 points in 15 games over his last two Worlds tournaments, he’d greatly improve Germany’s attack against weaker Group A opponents down the stretch and have them rolling into the playoff stage.

  • The AHL’s Abbotsford Canucks have signed defender Alex Kannok Leipert to a one-year contract extension, as announced today. The 22-year-old defender has attended development camp with Vancouver while in Abbotsford on an AHL contract, and he’ll continue to work within the organization in hopes of earning an NHL deal. Since wrapping up his junior career with the WHL’s Vancouver Giants in 2020-21, Kannok Leipert has a goal and eight assists in 85 career AHL games, along with a +19 rating.
  • Staying in the Canucks organization, Vancouver activated defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson from injured reserve today, per CapFriendly. Ekman-Larsson, 31, missed the last 27 games of the regular season with an ankle injury. With four years remaining on his contract carrying a $7.26MM cap hit, Ekman-Larsson recorded just two goals and 22 points in 54 games, matched with a -24 rating.
  • One of the Los Angeles Kings’ longest-tenured members earned a promotion today, with the team naming Bill Ranford their director of goaltending after 17 seasons as a goalie coach. Under Ranford’s tutelage, the Kings showcased potential Hall of Famer Jonathan Quick in the crease en route to two Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014. The added responsibilities mean Ranford will not only oversee the coaching of goalies at the NHL level but he’ll also be involved in the development and scouting of goalies at all levels inside the organization.

Edmonton Oilers Notes: Staios, Bouchard, Yamamoto

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Frank Seravalli had a lengthy discussion on the Daily Faceoff Rundown podcast about the future of the Edmonton Oilers. In the discussion Seravalli said he doesn’t expect huge changes on the ice, but he does believe that there will be changes to the management structure as they attempt to be “protective and proactive with Steve Staios.” Seravalli went on to say that the former Oilers defenseman is regarded in Oilers circles as being their general manager of the future and the club may want to shift their hierarchy to give Staios a bigger voice before another team scoops him up.

What that could look like remains to be seen, but Seravalli went on to say that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Oilers promoted current general manager Ken Holland to President of Hockey Ops which would allow Staios to shift over to Holland’s old job and preserve the teams already thin management group. Whatever management group is in place will have much work to be done this summer. The Oilers window for contention is beginning to close as superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl inch closer to unrestricted free agency. Draisaitl has just two years left on his current deal and McDavid has three. If the Oilers don’t get over the hump soon, they could find it difficult to retain the franchise cornerstones.

In other Oilers notes:

  • Seravalli also spoke about the next contract for Evan Bouchard saying that he fully expects the Oilers to try and get the defenseman on a bridge contract due to their current salary cap predicament. The 23-year-old is coming off a good season in which he put up eight goals and 40 points in 81 regular season games, however in the playoffs the Oakville native exploded for 17 points in 12 games, including 15 points while quarterbacking the Oilers white hot powerplay. Seravalli wondered if a bridge contract would even be possible given how important Bouchard has been to the team since the mid-season Tyson Barrie trade. The advantage for the Oilers will be that Bouchard has no rights to arbitration at this time.
  • Seravalli and Jason Gregor spoke about the Oilers need to upgrade the right wing spot this summer. This was echoed by Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic who believes that top six winger Kailer Yamamoto’s poor play in the playoffs might have turned him into a trade candidate. Yamamoto is due $3.1MM next season and struggled in the playoffs putting up just a single goal and four points in 12 games despite getting a lot of top six minutes. The Spokane native wasn’t much better in the regular season putting up 25 points in 58 games, a steep drop from his career high of 41 points in 81 games in 2021-22.

2023 Ted Lindsay Award Finalists Announced

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The NHL has announced the 2023 Ted Lindsay Award nominees. The award is given to the most outstanding player in the NHL and is voted on by the players. The Ted Lindsay Award is very similar to the Hart Trophy, with the unique feature of the award being that is that it is voted on by members of the NHLPA. Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs won the award last year and was the fourth different winner in as many years.

This year the finalists for the award are San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson, Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid, and right winger David Pastrňák of the Boston Bruins.

McDavid continues to be widely regarded as the best player in the world and it is hard to argue with the numbers. The 26-year-old put up video game like numbers this year with 64 goals and 89 assists in 82 regular season games on his way to a third consecutive Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s leading scorer. McDavid outpaced the entire league by 25 points this season, with the second leading scorer being teammate Leon Draisaitl. He outscored fellow Ted Lindsay nominee Pastrňák by 40 points.

Pastrňák has a career year putting up 61 goals and 52 assists in 82 games as he led the Boston Bruins to a historical President’s Trophy winning regular season. The soon to be 27-year-old put up an incredible 43 even strength goals and 76 even strength points. Pastrňák nearly lapped his own team in scoring as he outscored the second leading Bruins scorer Brad Marchand by 46 points. Maybe the most impressive feat of all for Pastrňák was that he put up this incredible season in a contract year. Somehow the winger was able to keep out the noise and put-up terrific numbers before signing an eight year $90MM contract extension on March 2nd .

Speaking of historical seasons, defenseman Erik Karlsson eclipsed the 100 points mark this season finishing the year with 25 goals and 76 assists in 82 games. The smooth skating Swede was the first defenseman to top 100 points in 31 years. Even more impressive than that was the fact that Karlsson did it playing on a bad Sharks team while also dealing with his name being in trade talks all season. Karlsson topped his career high point total by 19, and quieted a lot of his harshest critics in what was an incredible offensive display.

It’ll be interesting to see who comes away with the Ted Lindsay award come June when the ceremony will be held in Nashville. McDavid is likely the favorite to pick up the award, however I wouldn’t discount a 100-point defenseman in this era as Karlsson is just the sixth defenseman ever to accomplish the feat.

Snapshots: Three Stars, Moore, Briere

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The NHL released its Three Stars of the week ending April 2 and it shows a trio of league superstars who are gearing up for the postseason. Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was named the first star of the week. He started three games for the Lightning, winning them all, getting shutouts in two of those games and allowing just one goal in those three starts. Vasilevskiy shut out the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders while stopping 99 out of the 100 shots he faced in the past seven days.

Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers was the second star of the week. He helped the Oilers win all four of their games by scoring five goals and eight points as the Oilers officially clinched a playoff spot. His best game of the week came on Saturday night against the Anaheim Ducks when he scored a hat trick in a 6-0 victory for the Oilers.

The league’s third star of the week was Boston Bruins winger David Pastrnak. He continued his hot pace that has lasted all season, just like his team. The Bruins won three of their four games last week with Pastrnak scoring five goals and six points in those four games. He now has 56 goals and 103 points on the season and has played a big role in the Bruins already reaching 60 wins and clinching the President’s Trophy as the team with the best regular season record.

  • Per Mark Divver of NHL.com, Detroit Red Wings prospect Cooper Moore found a new place to play next season. The defenseman has played the past three seasons at North Dakota, but will be heading to Quinnipiac next season as a senior. The 22 year old was a fifth-round pick of the Red Wings in 2019 and scored 13 points in 31 games at North Dakota last season.
  • Mercyhurst forward Carson Briere has been released from the team, per Ian Kennedy of The Hockey News. Briere was caught on video pushing a wheelchair down a flight of stairs last month. He just finished his third season of college hockey, scoring five goals and 13 points in 30 games, but will not be back for a fourth season at Mercyhurst.

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