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Leon Draisaitl

Pacific Notes: McDavid, Simek, Rakell, Eaves

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Extension talks have yet to begin between the Oilers and Connor McDavid’s camp but there are already plenty of theories as to what it may take to sign him.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggests (video link) that one potential avenue that McDavid may consider is to not sign the maximum eight year deal but rather something around five seasons, similar to what other top players such as Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and Patrick Kane (among others) have done in the past.

Doing so would then allow McDavid to be eligible for unrestricted free agency sooner and would allow him to potentially cash in on a max-term, bigger money deal at that time.  From the standpoint of the Oilers, this route would allow them to save a bit on his AAV as he still has four years of team control remaining once his contract expires in 2018.  With Leon Draisaitl needing a new contract as well, that extra money could come in handy.  In the same video, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos notes that the expectation is that the AAV for both young stars will be pretty close on their second deals, potentially within $500K.

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • The Sharks have agreed to terms with Czech defenseman Radim Simek, according to an iSport report in the Czech Republic (link in Czech). Simek’s European agent, Petr Hemsky, confirmed to them that Simek has signed a one year deal worth $830K if he’s with San Jose for the entire season.  There is likely a signing bonus not included in that amount as Simek will receive an entry-level contract.  The article states that the Rangers were also interested while it was reported last week that Vancouver was also interested in Simek’s services.
  • The Ducks won’t be getting any help from the infirmary when it comes to their elimination game against the Predators on Monday night. The team announced (Twitter link) that both Patrick Eaves and Rickard Rakell did not travel with the team to Nashville and will not play in Game Six.  Both players are currently dealing with lower body injuries and were the only 30 goal scorers on Anaheim’s roster this season.

Takeaways From Peter Chiarelli’s Year-End Press Conference

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The fact that the Oilers will be without top-four defenseman Andrej Sekera for a decent chunk of next season wasn’t the only notable bit of news that  came from GM Peter Chiarelli’s year-end press conference on Tuesday.

He also discussed his summer plans for the team, and no, he doesn’t see another Taylor Hall-for-Adam Larsson type blockbuster. Chiarelli did say that he was open to the idea of trading down in the upcoming Entry Draft; the team has the 22nd overall pick, no second, and two third-round picks in the first 93 picks. Because this draft is seen as weaker than previous years, Chiarelli said acquiring a second-round pick isn’t a necessity but that if a trade came up, he’d consider moving down from #22 to acquire more picks.

Also on the trade front, Chiarelli called the widespread criticism of Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’s playoffs unfair. Trade speculation has run wild around those two, especially Eberle, but Chiarelli pumped the breaks on the suggestion that they need to be dumped at any cost. He praised Eberle’s improvement along the boards, and talked about the lack of confidence that the sniper suffered from. Eberle took 208 shots, which is the most he’s taken so far in his seven-year career, but shot at just a nine per cent rate, considerably down from his previous career-average of 14 per cent. Had he shot at that rate, he’d have scored 29 goals instead of 20. Chiarelli stressed that the team will be “careful about how [they] evaluate him.”

As far as Nugent-Hopkins, the general manager stressed the team-wide need of improving in the face-off circle. Chiarelli said that he gave Nugent-Hopkins “homework” for the summer. While Chiarelli kept a positive tone publicly, with both men on the trading block it would have been a poor decision to criticize them. With questions remaining about what position Leon Draisaitl will ultimately play and the acquisition of David Desharnais not being overly successful, Chiarelli will likely be looking to give Todd McLellan some more options in the face-off circle.

The main priority for Edmonton is signing their two best forwards to new contracts. Draisaitl is an RFA this summer, and Connor McDavid will be eligible to extend his deal on July 1. Chiarelli called McDavid priority one and Draisaitl priority two of this summer. All other free agents, like rugged winger and playoff cult hero Zack Kassian and controversial defenseman Kris Russell will have to wait until Chiarelli knows what sort of numbers he’s dealing with. The two men combined for about $6.4MM in cap space this past season (entry-level contracts plus bonuses), but will account for as much as $20MM by next season.

As far as the potential of a rival team offer sheeting Draisaitl, Chiarelli isn’t worried about that. Last week, I wrote about why offer sheets are so rare, and Chiarelli mentioned one of the stated reasons. The Oilers have the cap space to match any offer sheet to Draisaitl, so the only reason another team would submit an offer is to jack up the price. It’s highly unlikely that a team would go out of their way to try hurt another team’s cap situation because of the negative affect it would have on that GM’s reputation.

Had Sekera not been injured, the Oilers defense might not have had any changes on opening night. Oscar Klefbom is developing into a good top-pairing defenseman, Larsson had a strong first season, Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning have made strides together, and Chiarelli expressed interest in re-signing Russell and Eric Gryba. Chiarelli admitted the team doesn’t have a championship defense (yet). He pointed to Nashville and Anaheim, saying that “it would be nice to have a D at that level.”

Russell is loved by old-school hockey people, and considered highly overrated by people with a mind for advanced stats. While Russell blocks a ton of shots (213 in 68 games), he bleeds possession and hasn’t had a positive CF% Rel. (scoring chances when he’s on the ice compared to off the ice) since 2012 when he was in Columbus. He also scored just one goal this season despite playing the third-most minutes of all skaters. However, the injury to Sekera could motivate the Oilers to sign Russell to help fill the void. As mentioned above, Chiarelli will wait until he knows what McDavid and Draisaitl will cost before making any considerable signing, even if it means waiting until after July 1.

Chiarelli said the team blew his expectations out of the water, finishing with 103 points and getting to Game 7 of the second round. This summer will be about locking up key pieces and letting the young roster develop next season.

Oilers Notes: Free Agents, Draisaitl, Eberle, Pouliot

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The Edmonton Oilers were eliminated by the Anaheim Ducks in Game 7 on Wednesday night; now comes the post-season autopsies and plans for the coming summer.

The face of the franchise and perhaps the league, Connor McDavid is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Pending-RFA Leon Draisaitl lead the Oilers in playoff scoring after finishing eighth in the NHL during the regular season. Those two players will go from entry-level contracts to somewhere between $16-20MM by next summer.

The upcoming McDavid contract has already been the subject of much digital ink. Now, Draisaitl’s breakout season has lead to questions about what he’s worth. At the beginning of the year, the debate was bridge-deal or long-term. After a 77-point campaign, it’s clear that the Oilers will be looking long-term with their young star. Over at Sportsnet, Jonathan Willis explored previous contracts for comparable stars. Based on contracts signed by players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Anze Kopitar, and Johnny Gaudreau, Willis writes that Draisaitl’s new contract ought to be in the $6 to $6.5MM range. However, because of Draisaitl’s 37-game rookie season and the influence of McDavid, Willis notes that both sides have leverage.

Other free agents include Kris Russell, Zack Kassian, and Matt Hendricks. Hendricks will certainly be off the books, clearing close to $2MM. Russell will be interesting, as he’s the only member of the regular top-six who’s not under contract next season. If the Oilers want to improve their blue line, then Russell’s spot is the clear choice to upgrade.

  • On Thursday morning, the Oilers announced that Draisaitl will join Germany at the IIHF World Championships in Paris, France, and Cologne, Germany.  The native of Cologne ought to help Germany’s chances, as the team has just one regulation win in four games so far. It’s been a busy season for Draisaitl, who has played 104 games since mid-August beginning with the Olympic Qualifiers, the World Cup of Hockey, all 82 NHL regular season games, and then 13 NHL playoff games.
  • Eberle’s poor regular season and playoffs may mean he’s on the way out. He didn’t score a single goal during the playoffs, and was even outscored by Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne by a score of three assists to two.  As Sportsnet’s Luke Fox puts it, “You’re selling low on Jordan Eberle, but you’re still selling, right?” Provided the Oilers can find more scoring depth on the right wing, then expect Eberle to be on his way out. Fox suggests Carolina, New Jersey, and Vegas as possible trade partners.
  • Left-winger Benoit Pouliot also struggled mightily this season, with just 14 points in the regular season and none in the playoffs. He also comes at a $4MM price tag, which makes any trade unlikely. He’ll be exposed to Vegas, with perhaps a prospect or pick offered as a sweetner. Failing that, a buyout could be the next option. It was a bad year, but Pouliot has previously scored a solid rate while being an aggressive forechecker and good penalty-killer. His penchant for bad penalties got him in coach Todd McLellan’s doghouse and he couldn’t play his way out.

RFAs Looking For Playoff Payouts

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Every post-season, players look to make their mark. Relative unknowns break onto the scene, rookies steal the show, and goaltenders go from backup to fan-embraced starter. Contracts are always in the back of management’s thinking, however, and a strong post-season showing for a player can cost a team in dollars. Here are some restricted free agents who could stand to earn a more lucrative deal depending on how far their teams go and how bright they shine individually.

 

Ryan Johansen – NSH

Johansen will look to get a slight raise from his current $4.0 MM cap hit. A large determinant for whether he will see a take-home pay ($6.0 MM) decrease or not will be his performance in these playoffs. Johansen’s past two seasons have been fruitful in terms of points, 60 in 15-16 and 61 in 16-17, but not quite the numbers of the marquee offensive star Nashville fans were hoping for. This is a player who scored 33 goals in the 13-14 season, and was projected to consistently flirt with 80 points. Johansen’s imposing frame and play-style is a challenge for opposing centers, and he has undeniably improved his defensive prowess. Johansen only potted 14 goals this year, but it is fair to say his game has become more well-rounded. His Corsi For % took a massive hop from last season, taking a solid 52.3% to a remarkable 55.9% this past outing. Considering his quality of competition and his ability to provide solid two-way play, Johansen will be looking to prove his worth this post-season with a deep post-season run with the Predators.

Evgeny Kuznetsov – WAS

Washington’s Kuznetsov should definitely be considered part of the team’s core. At 24 years old, the center has already tallied a 77 point season and had a 5-goal playoff run. His inconsistency in terms of production could hinder his payday, however, as he struggled to regain his footing in what was essentially his third full season. He returned to form on the backend of the season, totaling a respectable if unremarkable 59 points. The flashy forward already has 3 points through 5 games against Toronto,  and a strong playoff showing can only help his position. With Nicklas Backstrom taking first-line duties and the red-hot Justin Williams on his wing, Kuznetsov could easily find himself in the spotlight again. Whether his next contract is a bridge deal at a lower cost or a long-term lock-down, Kuznetsov is certain to see a raise from his measly $3 MM.

Leon Draisaitl – EDM

Anyone who has watched Edmonton this season in hopes of catching a glimpse of Connor McDavid has undoubtedly been shocked and/or awed by the dominance of his 21 year-old linemate Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s vision with the puck and dogged determination make him a beautiful sight to behold. He accumulated an absurd 77 points this season, 29 goals and 48 assists, in what was only his second full season. The forward is already flirting with a point per game, and has shown remarkable chemistry with the generational talent McDavid. His flexibility in being able to shift from center to wing only makes him that much more valuable to the franchise. The Oilers will obviously pay whatever price is needed to lock up Draisaitl long-term, but the deeper the team goes, the better his bargaining position. He’s obviously going to get a fair deal more than his current $3.4 MM, likely upwards of $6 MM.

Conor Sheary – PIT

Conor Sheary had an incredible breakout season that practically no one, even Penguins fans, expected. On Sidney Crosby’s wing, the short-statured winger made himself absolutely invaluable. The chemistry the two showed together hadn’t really been seen since the likes of Hossa in Pittsburgh’s Finals run of 2007-08. Sheary is in a bit of a bind, however, as Jake Guentzel has shown equal or even greater chemistry with the league’s marquee center since being placed on the top line. Sheary struggled to find his groove in the first round series, even being demoted to the third line in favor of Patric Hornqvist. Sheary is a good bet to string together solid showings in the next round, but if he does not, perhaps it impacts his case for a long-term contract. Regardless, Sheary will look to eat up a large portion of the money allocated this offseason in Pittsburgh, as his current $0.925 MM cap hit is one of the best bargains in the league. His 53 points in 61 games placed him at 23rd in the league in points per game, ahead of the likes of Phil Kessel and John Tavares.

Mika Zibanejad – NYR

The Rangers organization loves this player, and it is easy to see why. His point totals had steadily increased the past three seasons, and he was looking to do so again if he did not miss so many games to injury. Zibanejad is a strong center who takes pride in his two-way ability. He has a solid shot, although he might be criticized for under-utlizing it, and is often deployed against opposing team’s top players. Considering that New York gave up the solid veteran Derick Brassard to acquire his skillset, they are nearly certain to double down on Zibanejad’s continued improvement. His role will only expand as the leadership of the team ages and he will be expected to fill some of the leadership void left behind. Zibanejad is up for a new contract, and will look for a sizable raise over his current $2.625 MM. There is perhaps still untapped offensive potential left in Zibanejad’s game, but will he display it in these playoffs? He has already potted 4 points in 6 games in the team’s successful series against Montreal, including an overtime winner.

Draisaitl Avoids Suspension, Receives Fine

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The NHL Department of Player Safety has opted not to suspend Edmonton forward Leon Draisaitl for his spear on Chris Tierney, but has decided instead to fine him a total of $2,569.44. In the second period of Game 4, which at the moment of infraction was well out of reach at 5-0, Draisaitl and Tierney engaged in the corner – after which Tierney successfully cycles the puck behind Edmonton net. In seeming frustration, Draisaitl re-raises his stick upwards into the nether-regions of Tierney, at which point Tierney is felled to the ice. Draisaitl received a 5-minute major penalty and a game misconduct. The incident can be viewed here.

The NHL Department of Player Safety continues to display why suspensions are so impossible to predict. The only recent corollary which didn’t receive a suspension was Sidney Crosby’s similar maneuver back in March against Ryan O’Reilly. This incident sparked a flurry of criticism against the Department of Player Safety for its seeming inconsistency, although there were many notable detractors who concurred with the league. Stars in today’s NHL undoubtedly need to carve out space for themselves, but this sort of low-blow is generally considered beyond acceptable, gentlemanly bounds. Brad Marchand, less of household name (even though he scored only 8 less points on the season), received a 2 game suspension for a remarkably analogous blow.

Granted, history of less-than-stellar behavior had a definitive role in the Marchand suspension, whereas Draisaitl and Crosby both had clean slates. There is also the undeniable factor that playoff suspensions are rarer and generally far less extreme. Oilers fans will no doubt cheer the fact that the young stud Draisaitl will be laced up for an extremely important Game 5. His 77 points on the season would be even more remarkable if they were not out-shined by the extraordinary glow of his fellow millennial Connor McDavid. In a series which might be franchise-defining, this is the best of news.

But the fact remains that at some point, there needs to be a standard set with a star player. $2,569 is little hardship for professional athletes at this compensation level. Although the explanations by the DoPS have been extremely helpful in trying to convey the league’s perspective, the punishments seem to fluctuate wildly. For now, the roulette wheel of justice spins on.

Snapshots: Draisaitl, Myers, Puljujarvi

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Leon Draisaitl will indeed receive a hearing with the Department of Player Safety today after his spear on Chris Tierney last night. The Edmonton Oilers forward was given a five minute major and game misconduct, but will likely face supplementary discipline.

The hearing itself doesn’t neccesarily mean a suspension, as Draisaitl could be given just a fine. Brad Marchand was recently suspended two games for his spear on Jake Dotchin, though he has a lengthy history with the DoPs while Draisaitl has none. After the Sharks tied the series up with a 7-0 thumping last night, it would be a big blow should the Oilers lose their young forward for any length of time.

  • According to Dave Issac of the Courier-Post the Lehigh Valley Phantoms will bring Phillipe Myers aboard for their playoff run, after his Rouyn-Noranda Huskies were eliminated from the QMJHL playoffs yesterday. The undrafted Myers was signed to an entry-level deal in 2015, and has since developed into an excellent prospect. His play at both ends of the rink was on display at the most recent World Junior tournament, where he scored three points in four games before suffering an injury.
  • Ryan Rishaug of TSN throws cold water on the Jesse Puljujarvi ideas, as he tweets it is “highly unlikely” the fourth-overall pick will see time in the Oilers-Sharks series. Puljujarvi’s season with the Bakersfield Condors came to an end with no playoff berth, and many had hoped he would join the Oilers for a few games to show off his talents. If the Oilers advance however, don’t count him out. Injuries in the playoffs are common, and he isn’t very far down the depth chart for replacements.

Morning Notes: Sobotka, Domi, Draisaitl

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The St. Louis Blues are enjoying a swift thumping of the Minnesota Wild in their first round series, and while much of that has to do with the outstanding play of Jake Allen (the thumping could easily be a whimper, should he have not saved 114 of 117 shots so far) the team has been lifted up by a late season acquisition. When Vladimir Sobotka terminated his KHL contract early and re-joined his NHL squad it was like a big trade deadline acquisition, Blues captain Alex Pietrangelo tells Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press.

Sobotka indeed represents a big addition for the Blues, and will for the next three years. The team has collected an impressive group of forwards and have spread the money around pretty nicely. Only Vladimir Tarasenko and Paul Stastny make more than $6MM per season up front, and with Robby Fabbri, Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford all giving them quality play on their entry-level deals, the team can afford to keep them all. Re-signing Stastny after next season will be tough, which may make him a trade deadline candidate similar to Kevin Shattenkirk this year.

  • Max Domi wants to “pick his battles” a little better, after spending eight weeks on the shelf with a broken hand after a fight this season. Dave Vest of NHL.com details his season and how he is looking to improve on his consistency next year. The 22-year old center will be eligible for an extension on July 1st, and will be one of the key players the new management staff will need to lock up long-term. The Coyotes currently have no forwards signed past the 2018-19 season, but that could change this summer with a new deal for Alexander Burmistrov or extensions for Domi or Tobias Rieder. Still building for the future, they could also jump into the free agent waters if they feel like they’re close enough to contend for the playoffs next season.
  • Leon Draisaitl was the latest to spear a player in the groin, getting frustrated with the 7-0 pounding his team took at the hands of the San Joe Sharks. Sportsnet asks if he should be suspended, and the league will decide at some point today. Draisaitl has no history of supplementary discipline, and Chris Tierney—the unfortunate target of the spear—returned to the game with no apparent injury. If he did get a game, it would be a big blow to an Oilers team that is trying to get back on track after being pummeled by the more experienced Sharks in game 4.

Edmonton’s First Line Dominance

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With a win this evening, the Edmonton Oilers could move into first place in the Pacific Division. Hands up if you saw this coming back in October.

The Oilers haven’t really had trouble scoring goals over the past few years, but with players like Nikita Nikitin and Andrew Ference playing top-four minutes, and Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth in the crease, the team didn’t have a chance at a winning record. With the additions of Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, and Kris Russell and the emergence of Oscar Klefbom and Cam Talbot, the Oilers finally have a solid back end. While Larsson cost them one of the best left wingers in the NHL in Taylor Hall, the Oilers offence isn’t hurting.

Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon, and Leon Draisaitl have formed one of the most dangerous lines in hockey. McDavid is leading the NHL in scoring with 91 points in 77 games, Draisaitl is currently tenth with 72 in 77, and Maroon has more than double his previous career-high with 27 goals and 41 points.

While McDavid and Draisaitl’s dominance isn’t altogether unexpected, Maroon’s career-year is. The 20-year-old McDavid is the arguably the best player in the NHL and Draisaitl was the third-overall pick in 2014. But Maroon is a bit of a different case; he was a sixth-round pick back in 2007.

After two up-and-down years in Anaheim with 29 and 34 points and a good playoffs in 2015, Maroon fell to the Ducks’ fourth line. He was dealt to Edmonton at last year’s trade deadline for minor-league defenseman Martin Gernát and a fourth-round pick, with the Ducks retaining 25 per cent of Maroon’s $2MM salary. After just 13 points in 56 games with Anaheim, Maroon scored 14 points in 16 games with Edmonton. The big winger was challenged by the organization to get into better shape, with ice-time alongside McDavid used as a carrot. Maroon lost 25 pounds in the off-season, and quickly played his way onto McDavid’s wing. Even when he’s not scoring, he does other things to help. TSN’s Jamie McLennan pointed to Maroon’s nine fights and physical play, complimenting him for “bringing something else to the table.” He’s been a feel-good story and is the Oilers’ nominee for the Masterton Trophy for dedication to hockey.

McDavid and Draisaitl are both on nine-game point streaks, with 16 points apiece in those nine games. Add in Maroon’s nine points in those nine games and their top line has 41 points in the last nine games. The Oilers are 8-1-0 in those nine games, clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 2005-06 with their sights set on 100 points and the Pacific Division title.

Snapshots: Crosby, World Championships, Oilers

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It was a controversial week for Sidney Crosby.

He appeared to slash Sabres forward Ryan O’Reilly in a sensitive area, then broke Senators defenseman Marc Methot’s finger in half with another whack. The latter incident resulted in a pretty ugly injury (NSFW) and some angry comments from Senators owner Eugene Melnyk.

Melnyk told TSN 1200 that the league needs to “hammer these [players who slash]… you say you know what? You are done for 10 games.  We all know who [Crosby] is. The guy is a whiner beyond belief. You do this kind of stuff—I don’t care who you are in the league, I don’t care if you’re the number one player in the league—you should sit out a long time for this kind of crap.”

The comments were criticized by fans and media; Mike Johnson called the comments “off base” and tweeted a video of Senators players slashing opponents. Senators captain Erik Karlsson defended Crosby by saying plays like that “happen all the time.”

Ahead of Sunday’s game versus Philadelphia, Crosby responded to Melnyk’s comments. After declining to comment, Crosby said “he likes to hear himself talk, so let’s leave it.”

Superstars like Crosby are often the target of those little “whacks”; small slashes that go uncalled. Earlier this season, Johnny Gaudreau missed 10 games after being whacked at least 20 times by different Wild players in the same game.

“I’d love to see them crack down on it,” said Crosby. “It’s something that happens a lot… Obviously [Methot is] an example where if you get it in the wrong spot, it can hurt. Hopefully he’s back out there soon.”

  • The USA Women’s National Team is boycotting the upcoming Women’s World Championships over a dispute with USA Hockey. The players are currently paid just $6K for the six months leading up to the Olympics, and nothing else. The players want fair wages and for USA Hockey to put more money into the program to grow the women’s game. USA Hockey has been asking (and being declined by) high school players to play in their stead. Now the Men’s Program may be getting involved. Player Agent Allan Walsh reported that American NHL players may refuse to play in this spring’s World Championships in solidarity; the NHLPA has already come out in support of the women. Last year, the American side finished fourth in the tournament, the rosters for which are populated by NHLers who are no longer in Cup contention and the occasional draft-eligible player.
  • After Leon Draisaitl cracked the 70-point barrier on Saturday night, the Edmonton Oilers will have two 70-point scorers (the other being Connor McDavid with 88 points) for the first time in 11 years. The last time they did, it was Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff with 77 and 73 points respectively in 2005-06. Incidentally, that’s the last time they made the playoffs. The Oilers have also surpassed 90 points for the first time since 05-06, and if they manage to finish first in their division (currently tied with San Jose and Anaheim for first), then it will mark the first division win since 1986-87.

David Pastrnak & Leon Draisaitl: The Next Contract

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The 2016 restricted free agent market was one of the most talented – and most entertaining – in recent memory. As hockey moves more and more toward youthful skill and speed, the dynamics of team building have changed as well, as last summer marked the “death of the bridge deal“. A multitude of massive extensions for young players were handed out, including giant new deals for forwards like Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele, Calgary duo Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida pair Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck. The 2017 RFA group is no slouch either; it features star scorers such as Minnesota’s Mikael Granlund, Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, the Tampa Bay trio of Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat and more.

Yet, the two most intriguing restricted free agents are the youngest of the group: 20-year-old Boston Bruins right winger David Pastrnak and 21-year-old Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl. Last summer opened the door for the game-changing pair to skip right over an affordable short-term deal that would keep them restricted into a third contract for the “prime” of their career. Now, Pastrnak and Draisaitl have the newly-minted industry standard option of asking for a six- to eight-year deal, lasting well into their late 20’s, worth somewhere in the range of $5-7MM annually. So what exactly will the new contracts look like this summer?

Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, is on the record as saying that his client is looking for a long-term deal and they are viewing the contracts of Monahan, Scheifele, and Filip Forsberg as comparisons. Forsberg signed a six-year, $36MM extension last June, worth $6MM annually, while Monahan re-signed for $6.375 per year for seven seasons and Sheifele agreed to $6.125MM a year for the maximum eight seasons. The only problem for Pastrnak and his representation in making those comparisons is the consistency argument. Pastrnak has an impressive 64 points through 68 games so far this season, much like Monahan’s 63 point total last year. However, Monahan also put up 62 points the year before and 34 as a rookie. He was only slightly older than Pastrnak when he agreed to an extension, but had far greater production in his first two seasons when compared to Pastrnak’s back-to-back mid-20’s performances. Scheifele also had a similar season to Pastrnak’s last year with 61 points in 71 games, but he too outperformed the young Czech the prior two seasons – and was two years older – when inking his eight-year mega deal. Like Monahan, Forsberg had consecutive 60+-point seasons before earning his new deal.

The Monahan, Scheifele, and Forsberg comparison works far better for Draisaitl. Now in his third NHL season, but still just 21, Draisaitl leads all impending RFA’s with 70 points on the year, following up his breakout 51-point campaign in 2015-16. With back-to-back strong seasons, like the previously described trio, Draisaitl should be comfortably within the $6-6.5MM annual range for his upcoming contract. The Oilers will have to keep in mind the possible record-setting deal awaiting them in Connor McDavid next year, but will not hesitate to pay Draisaitl, who is already one the best #2 centers in the NHL. While a very different player, Draisaitl’s early career arc closely resembles that of Gaudreau, and “Johnny Hockey” signed on for six more years in Calgary at $6.75 per, so don’t be surprised if Draisaitl actually ends up exceeding the $6-6.5MM annual range in his new deal or agrees to seven or eight years as compensation for a lower yearly value.

So what of Pastrnak? No one doubts that he will continue producing at a high level, especially with Boston’s top offensive stars like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes signed long-term and in influx of promising talent on it’s way. However, with just one – albeit unbelievable – high-scoring season under his belt, Pastrnak may not be able to crack that $6MM per year mark. Some may point to MacKinnon, the youngest and arguably most talented RFA to re-sign last year, and say that Pastrnak should get the same seven-year contract worth $6.3MM annually. However, MacKinnon was a #1 overall pick and had established himself as a top-line center with a 63-point rookie season in 2013-14, far ahead of where Pastrnak was at that point, which cancels out some of his more recent struggles. Instead, a better comparison is likely Panthers scorers Trocheck and Huberdeau. Like Pastrnak, Trocheck and Huberdeau found only middling success in their first two NHL seasons. Trocheck had a big breakout last year, jumping to 53 points in 76 games, and was rewarded with a six-year deal worth $4.75MM per year. Huberdeau had his breakout in 2014-15 with 54 points and then backed it up 59 points last season, before inking a six-year extension worth $5.9MM annually. What Pastrnak has done this year clearly surpasses anything that the Florida duo have yet to put up and Trocheck and Huberdeau were also two years older than Pastrnak will be when they re-signed, but they set up a more accurate range for what the Bruins wunderkind should expect this summer. Taking likely cap inflation into consideration, Pastrnak is looking at a six-year extension worth $5-6MM per season. Given the Bruins recent issues with retaining young talent, it’s a fair assumption that they won’t play hardball with the young sniper, so expecting the upper side of that scale is perfectly reasonable.

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