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Kyle Connor

Poll: Which Star RFA Is Most Likely To Miss Games?

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We’re now exactly two weeks from the start of the 2019-20 NHL regular season and eight* restricted free agents are still without contracts. While a few of those names represent depth or role players, five names stand out as potentially disastrous situations. Brayden Point, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine have all shown superstar ability in their short careers and would be huge talents to leave on the sideline when the season begins. All five forwards scored at least 30 goals last season, with Laine registering the fewest points (50) and Point the most (92).

It’s hard to know exactly when any of them will finally break down the barrier and report to camp at this point. Rantanen and Laine are skating in Switzerland, Tkachuk is with his old OHL team and there have been reports about nearly all of them that things still aren’t close. Just a few days ago Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweeted that last offer from the Tampa Bay Lightning to Point was a three-year deal that carried just a $5.7MM average annual value. That would represent a much lower number than someone like Mitch Marner signed for, but Tampa Bay has long maintained the philosophy of low-cost bridge deals for their star players coming out of the entry-level system.

It seems likely then that at least one of these five will miss games at the start of the season. Preseason games have already started without them in training camp and opening night is quickly approaching. But who is the most likely to be without a contract on October 2nd? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain your thoughts in the comment section.

[Mobile users click here to vote]

*There are actually several other RFAs that do not have NHL contracts, but they have already signed elsewhere around the globe to play in other leagues.

RFA Profile: Kyle Connor

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While Patrik Laine has drawn the most attention of Winnipeg’s prominent remaining restricted free agents, Kyle Connor certainly deserves consideration for being included in the second class of players still in need of a new contract beyond the top RFAs like Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen.  Here is a look at his situation.

Following a strong 2017-18 campaign, Connor improved his numbers offensively while locking down a full-time spot on the top line alongside Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler.  That resulted in a big jump in average ice time to over 19 minutes a night.  As it turns out, he wound up out-producing Laine, something that undoubtedly has been brought up in talks already.

One of the things that makes his deal a bit trickier than some of the others though is the shorter track record of NHL success.  Connor spent the bulk of his first professional season in the minors with his second year ultimately being his rookie season.  As a result, he has basically 50-60 games less experience than a lot of his counterparts.  That shouldn’t significantly hurt his value but it won’t help things either as instead of having three years of NHL success, he basically only has two.

Statistics

2018-19: 82 GP, 34-32-66, -7, 18 PIMS, 227 shots, 19:15 ATOI
Career: 178 GP, 67-61-128, -6, 38 PIMS, 443 shots, 17:28 ATOI

Comparables

William Nylander (Toronto): Like Connor, Nylander really only had two full NHL seasons under his belt with most of his first year being spent in the minors.  His overall point total at the end of his entry-level deal was pretty close to Connor’s although the Jets winger was more productive in the goal department.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 20-41-61, +20, 10 PIMS, 184 shots, 16:41 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 185 GP, 48-87-135, +18, 46 PIMS, 432 shots, 16:21 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $45MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.76% (Years two through six)
Current Equivalent: Six years, $ 42.84MM ($7.14MM AAV)

Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh) – His platform year had some similarities to Connor in that he moved up to the front line and set career highs across the board.  He also had a shortened rookie campaign although he managed to play half a season in that rookie year.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 40-36-76, +13, 26 PIMS, 227 shots, 19:21 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 204 GP, 78-79-157, +11, 78 PIMS, 479 shots, 17:31 ATOI

Contract: Five years, $30MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 7.55%
Current Equivalent: Five years, $30.766MM ($6.15MM AAV)

Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary): While his platform year was better than Connor’s, he only had one NHL game in his first year (which was primarily spent in college) so the shorter track record factor came into effect here.  Of course, he has since blossomed into one of the top scorers in the league, something that Winnipeg won’t be expecting from their winger.

Platform Year Stats: 79 GP, 30-48-78, +4, 20 PIMS, 217 shots, 19:56 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 160 GP, 55-88-143, +16, 34 PIMS, 385 shots, 18:48 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $40.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 9.25%
Current Equivalent: Six years, $45.232MM ($7.539MM AAV)

Brock Boeser (Vancouver): While many are waiting for Marner to set the market, Boeser and Connor could very well be waiting on each other.  Like everyone else in this set, the rookie year was shortened (just nine games) while Boeser cracked the 19-minute a night mark last season.

Platform Year Stats: 69 GP, 26-30-56, -2, 22 PIMS, 209 shots, 19:10 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 140 GP, 59-57-116, -7, 38 PIMS, 413 shots, 18:14 ATOI

Contract: Currently unsigned

Projected Contract

While there has been some speculation that Laine could wind up with a bridge contract, there seems to be nothing of the sort for Connor.  Both sides want to get a long-term deal done and earlier this month, he indicated his desire to get something done before the start of training camp.

In terms of the comparables, Nylander’s contract probably serves as the best one with something coming in the high $6MM to low $7MM range on a six-year deal.  That would buy out a couple of UFA years while giving the Jets some flexibility on handling a new contract for Laine while filling out the rest of their roster as there are some holes still to be filled.  As far as the remaining RFAs go, Connor’s deal should be one of the easier ones to get done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Prospect Notes: 2020 Draft, Reinhart, WHL

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It may only be August, but The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler is already hard at work evaluating next June’s draft class. The 2020 Draft promises to be chock full of talent, with Wheeler calling it more impressive than the most recent draft class and deeper at the top. In fact, he believes it could be the strongest class since 2015, which produced superstars like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Zach Werenski, Mikko Rantanen, Jake Debrusk, Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor, and Thomas Chabot in the top 20 picks alone. Also unlike recent drafts, Wheeler feels the 2020 class will be deeper at forward than defense and will be lacking impact American prospects, with the scout failing to see a U.S. product even enter the conversation as a top-ten pick. So who might be in contention for one of those elite slots? Canadian forward Alexis Lafreniere has long been considered the presumptive top pick and finds himself at No. 1 on Wheeler’s initial draft board as well. However, Swedish forwards Lucas Raymond and Alexander Holtz could push him for that top spot. College-bound Dylan Holloway is an interesting name to watch as a top-ten candidate, as is Wheeler’s highest-ranked defenseman, Jamie Drysdale. Goaltender Yaroslav Askarov also intrigues Wheeler; he feels the Russian keeper could be the best goalie prospect of this decade. Plenty could change in the ten months still to come before the 2020 Draft, but it never hurts to get a head start on researching who your team could be eyeing next year.

  • Unsurprisingly lost in the shuffle of an off-season that has left many major names unsigned is a former top NHL prospect in Griffin Reinhart. NHL teams have been tantalized by Reinhart’s upside seemingly forever without any real results to show for it, but it seems that luck has finally run out. The fourth overall pick in 2012 by the New York Islanders, Reinhart recorded one lone point in eight NHL games in his first pro season before the Edmonton Oilers traded a first- and second-round pick for him. He proceeded to score just one more point in 29 games over two seasons in Edmonton before being selected by the Vegas Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft. In two years in Vegas, he did not see any NHL action and became a Group 6 unrestricted free agent. Reinhart received the benefit of the doubt for many years, but it seems no longer, as there has been practically no talk of the young defenseman this summer.
  • The WHL is headed outdoors for just the third time in league history. Sportsnet reports that the Regina Pats will host the Calgary Hitmen in an outdoor game this season on October 27th. The game will take place at Mosaic Stadium in Saskatchewan just one day after the Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames square off there for the NHL’s Heritage Classic. The last WHL outdoor game took place back in 2011 and was another Pats-Hitmen contest, again coinciding with the Heritage Classic.

Latest On Kyle Connor Contract Talks

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While much of the ink this offseason has been spilled about Mitch Marner, there are plenty of other extremely talented restricted free agents still unsigned as we get closer to training camp. There is just a month left before the Winnipeg Jets will get together to prepare for the season but both Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor are still without contracts. In fact, the Jets only have seven forwards signed to one-way contracts for the upcoming campaign meaning any negotiations that leak into the regular season would put a lot of pressure on their already thin depth chart.

When asked by media including TSN whether he hopes to have a deal done before training camp starts, Connor was clear that would be his preference:

Yeah that’s definitely the plan. A player never wants to miss time in training camp, it’s tough always coming in and not getting that preparation, time with the teammates and practice. So that’s definitely a goal for sure.

I don’t think it’s anything to press the panic button on. It’s just kinda how these things do—take a little bit of time.

Connor wouldn’t comment on whether his representatives or the Jets are waiting on a player like Marner to set the market, something that has been speculated on for some time. The young forward also didn’t have much to say about any offer sheets coming his way, something that is still technically a possibility for many of the top names. After Sebastian Aho signed a sheet with the Montreal Canadiens on the first day of free agency—one that was quickly matched by the Carolina Hurricanes—the league seems to be back to normal concerning the RFA tactic (that is to say, there have been no others signed.)

While Laine has stolen many of the headlines the last several seasons in Winnipeg, it’s Connor who has established himself as a legitimate first line option at even-strength. The 22-year old former Michigan Wolverine has consecutive 30+ goal seasons in his first two full years in the NHL and put up 66 points in 2018-19. Laine meanwhile has continued his incredible goal scoring, but saw his overall performance drop to just 50 points in 82 games last season.

It’s that even-strength production for Connor that arguably makes him a more valuable player for the Jets moving forward, though both are obviously going to get huge raises coming off of their entry-level contracts. How exactly the team plans on fitting them into their current salary structure is unclear however, given they already have so much money tied up in a handful of other forwards. CapFriendly currently projects the Jets to have a little less than $17.6MM in cap space, but that is for a 17-man roster. That number starts to shrink as you add names from the minor leagues to fill out the forward ranks, and the pair of restricted free agents could easily eat up a combined chunk around $15MM depending on term. That financial crunch may end up forcing the Jets to go with a shorter contract for at least one of them, though nothing seems imminent at this point.

Mitch Marner Deal Holding Up Other Restricted Free Agents

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If the Toronto Maple Leafs’ negotiations with Mitch Marner last as long as they did with William Nylander last season, many other NHL teams are going to be in trouble. According to The Athletic’s Joe Smith, many other agents are waiting to see how Marner’s deal shakes out before finalizing terms for their own top restricted free agent forwards. A surprising number of prominent RFA forwards remain unsigned and could stay that way until the Marner deal sets the market.

Writing specifically about the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team facing their own RFA conundrum with breakout center Brayden Point, Smith states that the team expects Point to be ready for camp in September, but agent Gerry Johansson is content with the “slow process”. The agents for Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, Patrik Laine, and Travis Konecny likely feel the same way and are apparently waiting to see where Marner, the best of the group, ends up before moving forward. In fact, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal also added today that things are very quiet around Boeser’s camp and he acknowledges that the process has been slow for most big-name RFA’s.

So what will be the first domino to fall? Will Marner really sign first and set the stage for everyone else? Or will another unsigned star finally budge and give the market a much-needed comparable? While Marner, who recorded 94 points in 82 games last year, is the most established player and considered the top RFA who would be the ceiling for the market, he was actually quite comparable to Rantanen and Point last season. However, the rest of the group could benefit from any of the group signing a contract to use as a point of comparison. At this point in the summer, the odds are high that at least one of these negotiations will last into the regular season. But if the reports are true that the market waits on Marner, those teams with top unsigned RFA forwards better hope that Toronto and their star winger are closer than it seems.

Snapshots: Jets, Kings, Badgers

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A lot has been made about the rumored discourse in the Winnipeg Jets’ locker room. The team suffered another early exit from the postseason this year and some reactions from players, coaches, and media members alike indicated that chemistry concerns may have played a role. This off-season hasn’t helped the narrative either, with mainstays Tyler Myers, Ben Chiarot, and Brandon Tanev all electing to walk away as free agents, while Jacob Trouba was traded and Marko Dano and Joe Morrow were not qualified. Andrew Copp was re-signed, but only after a salary arbitration award, and Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor remain unsigned. It’s not good look for a group of players who some feel don’t get along.

Well, star player Mark Scheifele wants to put a stop to these whispers. Speaking with NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger, the Jets’ No. 1 center said that he is confident in his team’s chemistry. “People can claim whatever, but I know we have a tight-knit team,” Scheifele said, “We have great guys in our room. And there’s no question in my mind about the character we have in our room, the unity that we have.” He summed up the ongoing drama by stating that “you know what’s going on in your room. Anything extra is a bunch of baloney.” Scheifele admitted that it was difficult to see the likes of Trouba, Myers, Chiarot, and Tanev leave and hopes that there are resolutions shortly with Laine and Connor, but did not hint that internal issues were the cause of any of their negotiations. Of course, Scheifele would never come out and say otherwise, but it should provide Winnipeg fans with a bit of comfort that he was willing to speak openly about the locker room and tried to shut down the rumors that personalities have or could continue to affect the team’s performance.

  • The World Junior Summer Showcase is underway and fans of the Los Angeles Kings should pay close attention. NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman writes that the Kings lead the way with seven prospects participating in the tournament, headlined by recent No. 5 overall pick Alex Turcotte of Team USA. In fact, each of L.A.’s top four selections in June are in attendance; Turcotte is joined by fellow first-round pick Tobias Bjornfot, fellow American forward Arthur Kaliyev, and forward Samuel Fagemo, who joins Bjornfot on Team Sweden. Fourth-round pick Kim Nousiainen will also suit up for Team Finland. 2018 picks Akil Thomas and Aidan Dudas will both line up at forward for Team Canada. It’s an impressive collection of young talent for the Kings and one that should inspire hope for the future for a team that finished last in the Western Conference this past season with just 71 points. This group likely won’t be making an impact in the NHL in 2019-20, but L.A. is grooming a talented young core to take over down the road.
  • As for next season, Turcotte definitely won’t be in L.A., as he’s committed to playing at the University of Wisconsin. The Badgers’ incoming recruiting class has been very highly regarded, as it features Turcotte and fellow U.S. National Team Development Program products Cole Caufield (MTL) and Owen Lindmark (FLA), as well as another 2019 draft selection in Ryder Donovan (VGK) and potential 2020 top-ten pick in Dylan Holloway. With so many talented freshmen incoming, the question has been how head coach Tony Granato would use his rejuvenated roster. That question has been partially answered for the arguably the team’s new two best forwards. Talking to The Athletic’s Corey Pronman at the Summer Showcase, Caufield stated that he and Turcotte will play on the same line for Wisconsin, at least to begin the year. The duo have some familiarity, although Caufield – the No. 15 pick this year – largely played on Jack Hughes’ wing last season. However, they both possess immense offensive talent, while Turcotte has the two-way intelligence to compensate for Caufield’s lack of size and defensive focus if need be. Having played on the international stage already, the adjustment to the college level should not be too difficult and Turcotte and Caufield could put up huge numbers in their first (and likely only) collegiate season.

Snapshots: Maroon, Connor, Condon

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While Pat Maroon has indicated that he would like to remain in St. Louis, Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch believes that both sides would be better off if the winger didn’t re-sign with the Blues.  The 31-year-old had an up-and-down season in 2018-19 but did provide a level of physicality that not many others in their bottom six group could.  However, they have plenty of winger depth in the mix already so it’s not as if there’s a glaring vacancy for the St. Louis native to fill.  At this point, Maroon is seeking a multi-year deal which is something that the Blues clearly won’t be giving him.  But if a one-year pact is all he can get, there are other teams that can offer a more prominent opportunity than he’d get by staying with his hometown team.  We’ll see in the coming weeks how important playing close to home will be for the veteran.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • There were talks regarding a potential offer sheet for Jets winger Kyle Connor during the RFA interview period and Sportsnet’s Sean Reynolds reports that those talks have continued. The 22-year-old had a strong 2018-19 campaign, recording 34 goals and 32 assists, career bests in both categories while logging over 19 minutes a night.  That has put him in line for a massive raise from his $925K entry-level salary.  Winnipeg has roughly $17.5MM in cap room (per CapFriendly) to re-sign Connor, fellow RFA winger Patrik Laine, and a few other depth players to round out their roster.
  • While Mike Condon is coming off a particularly rough season in Ottawa, Jonathan Willis of The Athletic suggests (subscription required) that the netminder could be an interesting trade chip. He’s clearly not in the plans of the Senators for next season but possesses a contract that could be of interest to some cap-strapped teams.  He carries a $2.4MM cap hit but a $3MM salary; it’s possible that a team against the Upper Limit could move a back-diving contract (higher cap hit, lower salary) for him, allowing them to save some cap space while the Sens would gain an asset and potentially save a bit of actual money.  Condon battled hip issues last season but is expected to be ready for training camp.

Penguins To Sign Brandon Tanev To Long-Term Contract

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The Pittsburgh Penguins were not expected to be major players in free agency, but have apparently fallen in love with one particular two-way forward. TSN’s Darren Dreger initially reported the deal, and the Penguins have now confirmed the signing of Brandon Tanev to a six-year contract with a $3.5MM AAV.

That’s a significant commitment to a player who made just $1.15MM last season and whose best season was 14 goals and 29 points, but the 27-year-old provides more than offense on the ice as Tanev finished with a career-high in hits with 278. That physicality, to go with the ability to show some offense and the fact that Tanev continues to improve every year suggests that Pittsburgh believes that his best years are still to come. The hope is that Tanev can provide the team with an energy booster in the bottom-six, but who can also help those lines add some offense.

Pittsburgh likely wouldn’t have been able to make a deal like that work, but general manager Jim Rutherford freed up quite a bit of cap room in the last week by trading off defenseman Olli Maatta as well as finding a trade partner for Phil Kessel and his $8MM salary.

The Jets were thrilled with the 27-year-old’s play, but with Tanev having received quite a bit of attention on the open market, Winnipeg realized early on that they wouldn’t have enough money to keep him in the fold considering the team would already be up against the cap once the team re-signs some of their core, including Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor and Neal Pionk.

Teams Contacting Top RFAs As Interview Period Opens

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The NHL hasn’t seen an offer sheet in some time, but with an unprecedented amount of talent on the restricted free agent market this season some have speculated might be time for it to happen again. Today that speculation has turned into reporting that some teams are reaching out to at least inquire about the possibility. Darren Dreger of TSN reports that Mitch Marner’s camp has received calls from multiple teams, while Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports on similar situations regarding Kyle Connor and Sebastian Aho. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets and Carolina Hurricanes remain at the forefront of any negotiations with their young free agents, but even this kind of outside contact is irregular for the NHL offseason.

Today was the first day teams could contact restricted free agents, and while it has likely happened in the past the media chatter this year has been at another level. It is important to remember that the player has to agree to sign an offer sheet and his original team is then given a chance to match it. If they choose not to, that team receives compensation in the form of draft picks depending on the value of the signed deal.

The Maple Leafs and Jets especially are in tight financial situations given their proximity to the cap ceiling, and could be at risk of an offer sheet if a team were willing to go high enough with the salary. That said, giving up a number of future draft choices just for the opportunity to overpay a player does seem quite counter-productive in terms of building a competitive team. Still, the RFA group includes some incredible talent this year that may never be available again.

Calgary Flames, Matthew Tkachuk Taking Time To Get Deal Done

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The Calgary Flames have many offseason tasks they must deal with this summer, but the No. 1 priority of the team is locking up their top restricted free agent, Matthew Tkachuk. However, with a number of big-name restricted free agents cashing in on mega contracts in the last couple of years, the negotiations are expected to take a while. In fact, The Fourth Period reports that the two sides are in no rush to get a deal done quickly.

Both Calgary and Tkachuk have already had initial discussions, but negotiations aren’t expected to pick up again until later this month, most likely after the NHL Entry Draft. Much of the initial discussions likely dealt with the type of deal that Tkachuk is looking for as he could either sign a short-term bridge deal or a long-term deal. If the team isn’t ready to shell out an expensive long-term deal, they could offer a three-year bridge deal in hopes of seeing whether Tkachuk is worthy of such a deal that would take him to his final year of restricted free agency.

Several restricted free agents have cashed in recently, especially in Toronto as Auston Matthews signed a five-year, $58.2MM contract ($11.63MM AAV) in February, while William Nylander signed a six-year, $45MM deal ($6.96MM AAV) in December after holding out. There are quite a few key restricted free agents this offseason and Tkachuk might want to wait some of them out to see what the market sets at, including Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, San Jose’s Timo Meier and Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor amongst others.

Tkachuk is coming off a breakout season in the final year of his entry-level deal as he potted 35 goals and picked up 77 points this season, something they were hoping for after they drafted him sixth overall in 2016. A physical, menace-type player, Tkachuk is critical to the team’s long-term plans, but with plenty of cap concerns approaching, the team could opt to give him a little less money if he accepts a shorter-term deal. However, a long-term deal might be the preferred outcome in case Tkachuk continues to take steps forward in his development, which is quite possible considering he’s still only 21 years old.

The Flames are projected to have more than $14MM in cap space this offseason, giving them the room to lock up Tkachuk to a long-term deal, although the team still has other key restricted free agents in Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane and goaltender David Rittich to sign. The team also must decide on whether to bring back unrestricted free agent Mike Smith in net to pair with Rittich. If not, the team will have to find a goaltender on the free agent market to replace him. That could take up a significant amount of cap room, although there have been rumors the team could move one of their veteran defenseman, either T.J. Brodie or Travis Hamonic, to open up some more cap space and free up a defensive roster spot for some of their upcoming defensive prospects. General manager Brad Treliving might also attempt to trade forward James Neal and his bloated $5.75MM AAV contract, although finding a taker might prove to be a challenge considering he has four more years remaining on his contract.

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