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Kevin Shattenkirk

Morning Notes: Okposo, Shattenkirk, Capitals

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When Kyle Okposo was hospitalized last month, it was a scary moment for friends, family and fans of the Buffalo Sabres forward, unsure of exactly what had happened. John Vogl of Buffalo News has a heartening update though, saying that Okposo is still likely to be ready for training camp in September.

According to teammate William Carrier, Okposo had suffered a concussion and was receiving treatment for it, which according to other sources then led to a bad reaction to medication. Okposo would end up in the neuro-intensive care unit, but was released on April 7th.

  • The Washington Capitals cleaned out their lockers today, and Kevin Shattenkirk was front and center talking to the media about his upcoming free agency. Though he told Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post that he’d talk to the Capitals first about a possible extension, he also admitted that he wants a bigger role wherever he goes. While the Capitals are likely losing Karl Alzner as well, it’s clear that Shattenkirk wouldn’t be the #1 on that team should he re-sign, which means he’s likely played his last game there for the time being. Which teams would be interested in making him their top defender is still up for debate, after an up-and-down playoff run.
  • The rest of the Capitals also talked about their free agency, with T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams and Daniel Winnik all indicating their preference to return. Oshie especially will be a tough case, as he likely would enter the market as one of the top-3 free agents this summer. With the Capitals needing to re-sign several key restricted free agents, Oshie would be tough to fit into their cap structure.

Capitals Have Four Of Top Eight Unrestricted Free Agents

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The 2017 free agency class may not be the strongest, but the Washington Capitals have the most to gain (or more likely lose) if free agency doesn’t go their way. The Capitals, currently on the ropes, down 3-1, to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Game 5 tonight), have four of the top eight unrestricted free agents, according to Matt Larkin of the Hockey News, as he posts his Top-30 unrestricted free agents this summer.

Unlike previous years, Larkin writes that this year’s class falls short of firepower, which the scribe points out is bad news for the expansion Las Vegas Golden Knights, who get a 48-hour window to negotiate with any free agents before any other teams. Regardless, it’s the Capitals who will find themselves on the clock as defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk is listed as the number one free agent on the list, while winger T.J. Oshie is third. Defenseman Karl Alzner is ranked fifth, while veteran wing Justin Williams is eighth on their list.

Larkin adds that he believes the Capitals will only be able to ink two of those players and will be forced to let two go. Shattenkirk, who was acquired in a February trade from the St. Louis Blues for their playoff run, has struggled in the playoffs this year, but is listed first due to the fact that blueliners in the prime of their careers, who can play 20 minutes a night, are always rewarded. Whether Washington can keep him at a high price tag is the tough question.

The team is likely to do everything to sign Oshie, however. The 30-year-old winger has had a breakout season with Washington on the first line with Alex Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom. He has tallied 59 regular-season goals in the two seasons he has played for the Capitals since being acquired by trade from the Blues.

The Capitals then have to look at Alzner, a rugged blueliner who at age 28, could get a large contract in a weak year of free agent defensemen, while Williams playoff success could make him a well-paid second-liner as well. The Capitals have to decide what priorities they have as it’s unlikely they can afford to keep all four players.

Montreal Canadiens veteran winger Alexander Radulov, who returned to the NHL last year after a long stint in the KHL, is ranked second on the list, although he has said he would like to resign with the Canadiens. Goaltender Ben Bishop is listed fourth on that free agent list and the 30-year-old netminder should be in high demand. Veterans Martin Hanzal (No. 6), Joe Thornton (No. 7), Radim Vrbata (No. 9) and Patrick Eaves (No. 10) round out the first ten on that list.

 

Eastern Notes: Shattenkirk’s Struggles, Shalunov

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While the Washington Capitals have received nothing but praise from the press since they made their trade deadline deal to acquire veteran defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, his presence during the playoffs so far have been far from impressive. The veteran defenseman, who was picked up from the playoff-bound St. Louis Blues for a host of picks and players, including their 2017 first-round pick, has struggled in the playoffs with no goals and three assists in eight games this season. He also has a minus-seven rating in that span. Yesterday, he lost a race to 40-year-old Matt Cullen, which allowed the veteran to score a short-handed goal against the Capitals. Later, he took a delay of game penalty to allow Phil Kessel to score in the third period.

Coach Barry Trotz was also disappointed in the 28-year-old blueliner’s performance as he called him out this morning. “That’s not good enough for what we need in that third pairing right now. Minus-7 is hard to recover from,” Trotz said. Shattenkirk and defensive partner Brooks Orpik have struggled together as that third defensive line. In the first series against the Maple Leafs, the two allowed five goals in the series, the most of all the defensive pairings.

These mistakes have been costly enough with the Capitals now down two games and having to travel to Pittsburgh for the next two, but it also may not help him in the offseason when he is an unrestricted free agent, according to Adam Gretz of NBC Sports. While he will undoubtedly will receive a raise from his $2.592MM contract that ends this year, a good playoff performance or a long playoff run by Washington could have improved his value in the free-agency market. However, his struggles will likely not help him if things continue to stay the course.

So, if things don’t continue to improve, could Washington let Shattenkirk walk in free agency? Only time will tell.

  • Chicago Blackhawks prospect Maxim Shalunov will not be coming to the NHL any time soon as the 24-year-old wing will sign a three-year contract with Sibir Novosbibitsk of the KHL, according to his agent Shumi Babayev yesterday, according to Scott Powers of The Athletic. That means the Blackhawks’ couldn’t bring Shalunov over to the U.S. before the 2020-21 season. He will, however, remain a Blackhawk as long as he stays on their resevered list. The fourth-round pick from the 2011  NHL draft is coming off a season in which he scored 19 goals for Sibir Novosbibitsk this past year. Babayev warned that Shalunov would cut off negotiations with the NHL a few weeks ago after the NHL announced that it would not restructure its season around the 2018 Olympic Games.

Metro Division Snapshots: Connolly, Kovalchuk, Rangers

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After dropping the opener of their Eastern Conference semifinal match-up against Pittsburgh, the Washington Capitals have elected to make at least one lineup change in advance of game two. According to a tweet from Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post, Paul Carey will draw into the lineup replacing Brett Connolly. As the scribe noted prior to the start of the series, Connolly had his ATOI cut back drastically in the latter half of their six-game series win over Toronto, averaging less than six minutes per contest in games four through six so perhaps a healthy scratch shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

Limited ice time is nothing new this season for Connolly. The six-year vet averaged just 10:41 per game yet managed to set a career-high in the goal scoring department with 15. In fact, among all NHL players who reached that threshold, Connolly saw the lowest ATOI per game. The lack of playing time, both during the regular season and playoffs, would appear to inject some doubt as to how interested the Capitals will be in renewing their working relationship beyond the current campaign with the former first-round draft pick. Connolly is scheduled to be a RFA and will likely seek a significant bump in pay over his 2016-17 salary of $850K based on his solid goal scoring ouput. With several key regulars – T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Justin Williams among them – approaching unrestricted free agency and with RFA’s Andre Burakovsky and Evgeny Kuznetsov also needing new contracts, the Capitals will have a difficult time re-signing or replacing all the talent they may lose with just $20MM in projected cap space. Salary cap considerations may also prompt the team to move on from Connolly this summer, meaning he might be available via trade for any interested parties.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • It’s been reported that Ilya Kovalchuk may be preparing a return to the NHL after four years of self-exile playing in the KHL. As it stands, he is still property of the New Jersey Devils, unless all 30 NHL GM’s agree to allow Kovy to sign with another team. Of course, while the Devils could certainly use the offensive boost Kovalchuk would bring, they likely aren’t close enough to serious contention to justify committing the necessary salary cap resources to an aging, albeit still skilled winger. In fact, they would benefit more by agreeing with an interested club on a sign-and-trade, which would allow Kovalchuk to go to a contending team of his choice with the Devils picking up assets needed to further their rebuild. Whether or not Kovalchuk ultimately returns to the NHL, one thing is certain; the Russian winger will not be representing Team Russia at the upcoming World Championships. According to a report from the Russian sports site SovSport.ru (link in Russian) – H/T to TSN’s Gord Miller for retweeting the link – Kovalchuk has, or will soon undergo knee surgery and is expected to miss the next month to recover. Evidently the knee was an issue throughout the KHL playoffs though it wasn’t enough to prevent Kovalchuk from helping his SKA St. Petersburg club from winning the Gagarin Cup. While he won’t have another chance to showcase his skills for interested NHL teams, it’s unlikely this injury will do much to stunt his market, should he elect to come back.
  • Newsday’s Steve Zipay retweeted a report from the Russian Prospects website indicating that coveted young winger Vladimir Tkachyov is slated to attend prospect camp this summer with the New York Rangers. It should be noted that Zipay had yet to independently confirm the report. Tkachyov, an undrafted free agent, spent last season skating with Admiral Vladivostok in the KHL, finishing with 14 goals and 39 points in 49 contests. Prior to returning to Russia, Tkachyov appeared in 66 QMJHL games split between Moncton and Quebec, tallying a combined 26 goals and 79 points. Scouting reports describe the 5-foot-10, 154-pound LW as a dynamic offensive talent and an explosive skater. Tkachyov has been linked to Toronto and Edmonton previously but at this point it looks like the Rangers may have the first chance to convince the skilled winger to join their organization. The Blueshirts interest is understandable as they favor skill and speed in their roster construction and with the lack of high draft choices in recent seasons due to sacrificing futures in pursuit of a Stanley Cup, adding a talent like Tkachyov helps the team keep the prospect pipeline producing NHL-caliber players.

Morning Notes: Sobotka, Domi, Draisaitl

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The St. Louis Blues are enjoying a swift thumping of the Minnesota Wild in their first round series, and while much of that has to do with the outstanding play of Jake Allen (the thumping could easily be a whimper, should he have not saved 114 of 117 shots so far) the team has been lifted up by a late season acquisition. When Vladimir Sobotka terminated his KHL contract early and re-joined his NHL squad it was like a big trade deadline acquisition, Blues captain Alex Pietrangelo tells Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press.

Sobotka indeed represents a big addition for the Blues, and will for the next three years. The team has collected an impressive group of forwards and have spread the money around pretty nicely. Only Vladimir Tarasenko and Paul Stastny make more than $6MM per season up front, and with Robby Fabbri, Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford all giving them quality play on their entry-level deals, the team can afford to keep them all. Re-signing Stastny after next season will be tough, which may make him a trade deadline candidate similar to Kevin Shattenkirk this year.

  • Max Domi wants to “pick his battles” a little better, after spending eight weeks on the shelf with a broken hand after a fight this season. Dave Vest of NHL.com details his season and how he is looking to improve on his consistency next year. The 22-year old center will be eligible for an extension on July 1st, and will be one of the key players the new management staff will need to lock up long-term. The Coyotes currently have no forwards signed past the 2018-19 season, but that could change this summer with a new deal for Alexander Burmistrov or extensions for Domi or Tobias Rieder. Still building for the future, they could also jump into the free agent waters if they feel like they’re close enough to contend for the playoffs next season.
  • Leon Draisaitl was the latest to spear a player in the groin, getting frustrated with the 7-0 pounding his team took at the hands of the San Joe Sharks. Sportsnet asks if he should be suspended, and the league will decide at some point today. Draisaitl has no history of supplementary discipline, and Chris Tierney—the unfortunate target of the spear—returned to the game with no apparent injury. If he did get a game, it would be a big blow to an Oilers team that is trying to get back on track after being pummeled by the more experienced Sharks in game 4.

Washington-Toronto Playoff Notes: Zaitsev, Shattenkirk, Matthews

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Nikita Zaitsev (upper body injury) has been ruled out for Game 2 in the Maple Leafs’ series with the Capitals today. Toronto coach Mike Babcock said he got excited when he saw him at the morning skate. However, the right-handed defenseman was ruled out instead, dealing a critical blow against the top-seeded Capitals after the team lost in overtime in game one.

“I saw him out there today, I got very excited, and they shut me down very fast,” Babcock said.

The loss is considered by many to be devastating as the series is expected to come down to the strength of each teams’ defensive depth. Washington general manager Brian MacLellan looks more and more like a genius for his deadline trade to acquire Kevin Shattenkirk. The veteran blueliner was acquired along with Pheonix Copley in a package that included Washington’s 2017 first-rounder, 2019 second-round pick, Bradley Malone, Zach Sanford and a conditional pick. The depth that he provides suddenly gives the Capitals a strong advantage against the young up-and-coming Maple Leafs.

Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan writes that Shattenkirk’s presence is not only enough to avoid concerns of a potential defensive injury, but the way in coach Barry Trotz managed his blueliners minutes in Game 1. Despite the game going into overtime, no defenseman played more than 25:22 or less than 16:32. Trotz’ ability to depend on his defensive depth is critical as it allows his defenders to get more involved in the offense. Shattenkirk showed that Thursday night when he put a game-high nine shots on goal.

“I think both teams and in this day and age in the game, you want to have the ability to be active,” Trotz said. “It’s so hard to score three-on-three, two-on-two, so you’ve got to create the next race, who’s going to create an odd-man rush, and if you can execute, you’re going to get a good look. That’s where the game is, that’s where you’re going to have some success, but you’ve got to jump at the right time.

“If you don’t have the legs to get up ice, you’re not going to have that opportunity. I think when you’re able to spread the minutes over, it does help. There’s a couple elite skaters in this league that can seem to go forever like a Drew Doughty or Brent Burns. They just don’t run out of gas, it seems, but for the rest of us mortals I think spreading the minutes is really helpful.”

Getting any offense out of their defensive pairings would only add a new element in their attempt to finally gain that Stanley Cup that has eluded the Capitals so far. Defensively, they were ranked fourth in the NHL during the regular season with a 2.16 goals against. “When we were able to acquire Shattenkirk, it even took it to a different level of being able to spread out our top guy and our bottom guy, minutes-wise,” associate coach Todd Reirden said. “In the Eastern Conference, we have the lowest differential between our highest-minute defenseman and our lowest-minute defenseman, so that’s been an important thing for me this year. I think keeping our players fresh for a long run and also I think it correlated with the few number of man-games we lost. It’s definitely a strategy and something we were able to really see through this year.”

Other series notes:

  • The Capitals look at Thursday’s game as a wake-up call. However, they have won six of the last eight Game 2 playoff series and are now more focused than ever. “To me, it’s a really good wake-up call for us,” Trotz said of Game 1. “You get in the playoffs, and there are no easy games. The Leafs were well prepared, they’re a good hockey team, their kids are exceptional talents, and they can play. And you’ve got to play them hard.”
  • Babcock praised the play of rookie sensation Auston Matthews, saying the 2016 first overall pick reminds him of former Detroit Red Wings’ Pavel Datsyuk. The veteran was well known for his elite defensive skills and his game-changing offensive abilities. “When you think you’re out of his range, he’s able to get a puck,” Trotz said.
  • Speaking of Matthews, the youngster has preached patience after his quiet playoff debut. Babcock’s message: “Keep on keepin’ on.” What Babcock would like to see is Matthews and the Maple Leafs get more shots on goal in Game 2. They were outshot 19-9 in the third period and overtime and were outshot 44-37 overall. Matthews only managed one shot on goal.

 

Metro Division Notes: Shattenkirk, Teravainen, Zibanejad, Werenski

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The Washington Capitals pulled off perhaps the biggest acquisition of the recent trade deadline, reeling in mobile, puck-moving defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk from St. Louis, further bolstering their offensive attack while also preventing one of their Eastern Conference rivals -notably Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers – from adding the skilled blue liner to their lineup. While often times it takes time for a player to adjust to his new surroundings following a mid-season trade, Shattenkirk has fit in well with Washington registering 13 points in 17 games since the deal. As Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post writes, the trade has so far been a big success for the Capitals. But unless Shattenkirk helps Washington embark on a deep playoff run, one that culminates in a berth in the Eastern Conference Final at the very least, it will be hard to consider the deal a win for the Caps.

Though GM Brian McLellan was hesitant to disrupt the team’s chemistry by making a headline move at the deadline, Shattenkirk was the one player he was willing to roll the dice on, according to Khurshudyan. In today’s game you can seemingly never have enough puck-moving ability on the back end and McLellan, recognizing that, didn’t shy away from acquiring the skilled right-handed defender. The GM also benefited from first-hand information as to how Shattenkirk would fit in as both T.J. Oshie and Brooks Orpik have been teammates of the blue liner at some point in their respective careers.

Of course this season, and consequently this trade, will hinge entirely on the success achieved in the postseason. Despite having one of the league’s best players in Alex Ovechkin piloting the ship, the Capitals have failed to advance further than the second round of the playoffs since the 1997-98 campaign, when the team surprisingly made it to the Stanley Cup Final. Should the Capitals bow out again before the Eastern Conference Final, there will be no escaping the conclusion that this was yet another disappointing campaign in Washington.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • After a stellar postseason which saw the then 20-year-old winger tally 10 points in 18 games for Chicago during the Blackhawks Stanley Cup run in 2015, Teuvo Teravainen was expected to develop into a star player in this league. Following a mediocre 2015-16, Teravainen was dealt to Carolina along with veteran winger Bryan Bickell in a deal designed to create precious cap space for Chicago. With a fresh start in a new city, it was thought that Teravainen, now 22, would start to realize his vast potential yet that hasn’t proven to be the case. The 5-foot-11 winger has bested his offensive output from a year ago – 41 points to 35 – yet more was expected from the skilled Finn. But, as Chip Alexander of The News & Observer writes, Teravainen has a plan to get better this offseaon. The native of Helsinki, Finland plans to add more muscle this summer in the hopes that improves his board play and ability to win one-on-one battles. For Teravainen, who will be a RFA this summer and most likely in line for a bridge contract, the 2017-18 campaign will help determine whether he can take the next step in the NHL and become a high-end scoring forward or whether he will settle in as a middle-six winger who leaves you wanting more.
  • Mika Zibenajad, who returns to Ottawa for the first time since last summer’s trade to New York, could be a big key for the Rangers in the playoffs, writes Larry Brooks of the New York Post. Zibanejad started strong this season with 15 points in his first 19 games but suffered a broken fibula during a November game against Florida and has struggled with consistency since returning. As Rangers head coach Alain Vigneault noted, Zibanejad’s skating is perhaps his best asset and it’s taken time to fully heal after the injury. Still, as Brooks reports, Vigneault sees Zibanejad as “a good playmaker with good speed,” who has a chance to develop into a “top-notch player and top-notch centerman,” heading into the playoffs. Derick Brassard, who went to Ottawa in the Zibanejad trade, was a big time performer in the playoffs for New York and there will be pressure on the former Senator to produce for his new club when it matters most.
  • Good news for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who could use some while in the midst of a five-game losing streak, as the team is confident that rookie blue liner Zach Werenski will be ready to play in the postseason. Both GM Jarmo Kekalainen and head coach John Tortorella have expressed that belief, tweets Tom Reed of the Columbus Dispatch. Werenski, who has 11 goals and 47 points in 78 games as a 19-year-old rookie, was injured by a high but legal hit from Alex Ovechkin in a recent game against the Capitals and has missed the last three games, including today’s tilt against Philadelphia. Werenski is an important player for the Jackets and their odds of upsetting the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins improve dramatically if he is 100% and ready to play in game one of their first round playoff match-up.

Jake Walman Signs Three-Year Contract With St. Louis Blues

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The St. Louis Blues have locked up an important prospect, as the team inked Jake Walman to a three-year, entry-level contract Tuesday evening. Walman had been expected to turn pro for some time, but had to wait until Providence College was eliminated from the NCAA tournament. He will head to the Chicago Wolves on an amateur tryout for the remainder of the season. Jake Walman

An incredible skater, Walman is difficult to stop when he he carries the puck through the neutral zone. A natural puck-rushing defender, he’s taken steps to become a better defender this season and will continue to do so at the professional level. His offensive upside is tremendous, but he won’t be able to use that ability at even strength enough without some good work at the AHL level to tighten up his gaps and stop relying on his speed to make up for any mistakes. At just 21, he’s ahead of the curve developmentally for a third-round pick, and should be pushing for an NHL job before he’s 23.

St. Louis has done well this spring to bring in their top NCAA prospects, getting Walman and Tage Thompson to both leave school early and join the professional ranks. Both players showed immense potential at the college level, and represent part of the next wave of players for the Blues. After a struggle in the first part of the season, the team has turned its NHL product into a contender again, while restocking the system with college players and a strong return for Kevin Shattenkirk. For anyone who thought the Blues might be headed in the wrong direction at the end of 2016, they look far from it now.

Metro Division Notes: Shattenkirk, Provorov, Konecny, Ryan

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Defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, in the midst of a career season offensively, is poised to become one of, if not the most sought after free agent of the 2017 offseason. We ranked the Capitals blue liner #1 in our mid-season free agent power rankings in January and since moving to Washington from St. Louis at the trade deadline, the 28-year-old has only helped his cause, tallying six assists in 10 games for his new employer. Shattenkirk reportedly rebuffed overtures from three different clubs since the 2016 entry draft who were interested in acquiring the seven year veteran on the condition they could lock him up to a contract extension. With nearly every team in the league looking for skilled, puck-moving defensemen, particularly those that happen to shoot right-handed, there figures to be a robust market for Shattenkirk’s services in July.

Elliotte Friedman, appearing on Toronto’s Sportsnet 590 Friday morning (H/T to Chris Nichols of Fan Rag Sports for the transcription), speculated that one team who may go all-in on Shattenkirk this summer is the New Jersey Devils. The Devils currently rank 28th overall in the NHL in scoring and have just one blue liner, Damon Severson, who has tallied at least 20 points on the season. Clearly they could use a point-producing defender and Shattenkirk will far and away be the top free agent option. Friedman notes that New Jersey will have the cap space ($19.5MM in projected cap space with 17 players under contract for 2017-18 according to Cap Friendly) to essentially outbid any other interested suitor if they so choose.

“I don’t know if Kevin Shattenkirk is going to go there – I still think he wants to be a Ranger. But I could see them throwing a big number at him. They’ve got a lot of cap room. They’ve got a spot for him on their blueline. He’s exactly what they need. It would not surprise me in the least if New Jersey is a team that goes out there and just throws bags of money at him and says, ‘Turn us down.’”

It’s interesting to note that Friedman also believes that Shattenkirk has his sights set on joining the Rangers. The Blue Shirts were among the teams that spoke to the Blues about dealing for the blue liner at the deadline but simply had no desire to meet St. Louis’ high asking price. The thought then was that they were content waiting for the summer when they can add the skilled blue liner without sacrificing any assets to do so. However, given the Rangers heavy, long term commitments to Marc Staal and Dan Girardi, it stands to reason they will have to be creative in fitting a projected Shattenkirk contract under the salary cap. That may mean trading or buying out one of the aforementioned duo.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • While the Philadelphia Flyers are a likely bet to miss the playoffs this season, the development of Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny has been a bright spot, as Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes. Provorov, just 20, has recorded 28 points as a rookie blue liner and has shown the potential to be a top-pair defender for years to come. Konecny, meanwhile, has registered 11 goals with 16 assists and has the elusiveness and creativity the Flyers sorely lack on their roster, according to Carchidi. Flyers GM Ron Hextall wisely avoided the temptation to be a buyer at the trade deadline and instead chose to remain patient with his retooling. The continued development of Provorov and Konecny demonstrate that Hextall’s decision was the correct one.
  • Carolina center Derek Ryan has taken an unusual route to becoming a NHL regular, playing professionally in both Austria and Sweden prior to joining the Hurricanes organization. Ryan, who played for current Hurricane head coach Bill peters for the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs, went undrafted and spent four seasons playing collegiate hockey at the University of Alberta before turning pro. Now the 30-year-old rookie is Carolina’s nominee for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy for perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey, writes Chip Alexander of The News & Observer. Playing on a one-year, two-way contract this season, Ryan has registered 11 goals and 24 points while playing all over the Hurricanes lineup and has likely earned a raise on his $600K salary when he reaches free agency this summer. While he doesn’t qualify as a game-breaking talent, Ryan has proven he belongs in the NHL and is a solid, bottom-six contributor.

The Case For T.J. Oshie As This Summer’s Top Free Agent

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Earlier this year, PHR put together our first draft of the 2017 unrestricted free agent class. Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie finished a respectable fourth on that list, behind Joe Thornton, Alexander Radulov, and, of course, Oshie’s new teammate Kevin Shattenkirk. Those mid-season power rankings were just that, a list based on career performance and the first half of the season. Yet, free agancy often reflects “what have you done for me lately?” rather than a complete analysis of a player’s full body of work, and the second half of the season has been a windfall for Oshie. Is he now the top player on the market this summer?

After last night’s hat trick against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Oshie is now the Capitals leading goal-scorer. Yes, that’s right, Oshie leads the best team in the league in goals, not Alexander Ovechkin. The last time that any player led Washington in goal scoring at this point in the season and wasn’t Ovechkin: Robert Lang in 2003-04. Not only that, Oshie’s 49 points in 58 games makes him the most efficient scorer on the team behind Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie is sniping at a career rate in 2016-17, with a 24.2% shooting percentage, which explains his career-high in goals as well. He also has a career-best +26 rating right now, a function of the Capital’s success but also of the more careful, refined game he has shown this season.

So Oshie is having an excellent year; does that make him the top free agent? No one behind Oshie on our initial list has played significantly better, so it comes down to comparing him against Thornton, Radulov, and Shattenkirk. The first thing that should stick out between Oshie and Thornton is age. Oshie will be 30 years old at the start of the 2017-18 season, whereas Thornton will be 38. Radulov will be just 31, but has just returned to the NHL this season after a long hiatus in the KHL. Oshie and Thornton thus have him beat in terms of career consistency and dependability. If 2016-17 scoring is the main criteria, it’s a close race with Oshie at 49 points, Thornton at 48 points, and Radulov at 47 points, but Oshie has played in fewer games than the others. With an age advantage over Thornton and a consistency advantage over Radulov packaged with a scoring advantage over both, it’s fair to say that Oshie has moved into the top spot among impending free agent forwards. Making that call easier is the fact that both Thornton and Radulov are expected by many to re-sign with their current teams following the Expansion Draft in June and may not even hit the open market with Oshie on July 1st.

So that leaves Oshie vs. Shattenkirk. Especially if Washington wins their first ever Stanley Cup on the backs of these two players, both Oshie and Shattenkirk will be highly sought-after and handsomely paid on July 1st. However, can you make the case that Oshie has surpassed his new teammate in free agent value? Back in January, the PHR writers were in universal agreement that Shattenkirk was the top player available. However, when it came time for the St. Louis Blues to move him at the Trade Deadline, rumors began circulating that many teams saw Shattenkirk as a second-pair guy, were unwilling to part with top prospects and multiple high picks to acquire him, and were not planning on handing him a contract worth $7MM+ per year this summer. The Capitals ended up parting with a package that surprised many as being relatively cheap in return for the star defenseman. Shattenkirk is still the best blue liner on the market and will get his money somewhere, but no such word has come out about Oshie’s free agency prospects. It appears that teams are ready to give the skilled winger whatever he asks, as Oshie has proved time and time again that he is one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL, as well as a powerplay dyanamo and shootout specialist. The simple fact that scoring defense is always in higher demand than scoring forwards may dictate that Shattenkirk remains the top free agent this summer, but don’t be surprised to see Oshie get a similar deal to his teammate and go on to have greater success than Shattenkirk with his new team in the future.

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