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Kari Lehtonen

Trade Candidates: Marc-Andre Fleury

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has spent 13 season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, but this one could be his last. Finally forced out of the starter’s role by newcomer Matt Murray, Fleury now mans the bench as the clear backup. The only problem is that the Penguins now have a $5.75MM backup goaltender with a NTC and NMC, and an impending expansion draft. A proven goaltender with two Stanley Cup rings—albeit one as a backup—should be a hot commodity at the trade deadline, but the ever-evolving NHL wants less and less to do with high-priced veteran goaltenders.

Contract

Fleury has two more years left at $5.75MM a year. He also has a No-Trade Clause and a No-Movement Clause.

2016-17 Season Stats

28 GP, 25 GS, 14-7-4, .906 SV%, 3.15 GAA, 0 SO

Season Overview

Fleury had a golden opportunity to silence his doubters and take the reins back in Pittsburgh. With Matt Murray out with a broken hand to start the season, Fleury was poised for his resurgence. Unfortunately the season hasn’t unfolded that way, and Fleury sits with a less-that-stellar .906 SV% and 3.15 GAA. Fleury’s issue is inconsistency rather than mediocrity. Some nights the Penguins goaltender is a brick wall and stymies opponents left and right. Other nights he performs at replacement-level and posts disappointing stats. And since the Penguins now have Murray between the pipes, Fleury gets less and less opportunities to figure it out.

Suitors

The Dallas Stars are the main suitor so far. ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun noted on TSN’s Leaf Lunch that the Stars covet Fleury and have made preliminary inquiries. PHR’s Zach Leach covered the story in more detail here, and the fit seems like a natural one. Dallas desperately needs a goaltender after another disappointing year using the tandem of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi. Both are putting up numbers as bad or worse then Fleury.

If the Stars trade for Fleury, expect a goaltender to go to Pittsburgh in return. Which goaltender goes the other way depends on what the Penguins add to the deal. Lehtonen has $1.5MM more of a cap hit than Niemi ($5.9MM vs $4.5MM), and both have one more year remaining after this season.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Likely. Because Fleury has a NMC, the Penguins are forced to protect him in the Expansion Draft unless he waives the clause. If the Penguins protect him, then they have to expose Matt Murray and they do not want to do that. So either Fleury waives his NMC or agrees to a trade where he can regain the starting position.

Keeping Fleury and buying him out at the end of the year represents the least efficient move by the Penguins. The Penguins would incur a $1.9MM cap hit for the next four years if they buy out Fleury. Conversely, if they trade for Lehtonen and buy him out, they incur a $2.56MM cap hit next season, and a $1.66MM cap hit the season after. If the Penguins up the ante and acquire Niemi, they incur a cap hit of $1.5MM for the next two years. The latter two buyouts represents a better deal for the Pens then dead money for four years.

The only reason the Penguins may hold onto Fleury is if they want insurance for a deep playoff run. Losing a starting goaltender significantly decreases a team’s chance at the Stanley Cup, and Pittsburgh may want Fleury as an insurance policy and accept a buyout cap hit for the next four years.

Stars Targeting Marc-Andre Fleury

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Marc-Andre Fleury has done little to improve his draft stock this season. The veteran goaltender has a pedestrian 3.05 goals against average and .906 save percentage through 28 appearances in 2016-17. He’s been pulled from three games and has surrendered four or more goals ten times already, including in two of his last three starts. Matthew Murray, who stole the show in the postseason last year and led the Pittsburgh Penguins to a Stanley Cup title, has been back at this year, monopolizing the goal when healthy and forcing Fleury into a definitive backup role. However, for the Penguins to protect their prodigious young keeper in the upcoming Expansion Draft, they must find a way to rid themselves of Fleury and his no-movement clause. The best option for the team is to trade their longtime goalie, and Fleury has expressed a willingness to waive his clause to facilitate such a move. The problem now is that Fleury’s play had seemingly eliminated the market for his services. Many had speculated that any previous interest had dried up, and if the Penguins wanted to move Fleury out, they would have to send a top pick or prospect along with him to a cap space-rich squad.

That may not be the case, though. ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun reported in a radio interview this morning with Toronto’s TSN 1050 that the Dallas Stars have opened up preliminary talks with Pittsburgh regarding Fleury. If there’s any team in the league whose goaltenders have underachieved more than the Penguins’ vet, it’s the duo in Dallas. The Stars have long been considered a likely destination for Fleury due to their horrible situation in net. Kari Lehtonen has an 11-15-6 record in 36 appearances this season and is sporting a 2.89 GAA and .902 save percentage. He also has another year remaining on his contract, which carries an astronomical $5.9MM cap hit and limited no-trade clause. Antti Niemi has been even worse, posting a 10-8-4 record in 28 appearances with a 3.20 GAA and .901 save percentage. The former Vezina candidate has another year on his deal left as well, along with a limited no-trade clause of his own and a $4.5MM cap hit. The $10MM+ team has the Stars in 29th in the NHL in goals against in 2016-17, with a 3.17 average that is second-worst to only the lowly Colorado Avalanche. Last year, Dallas was able to overcome their 19th-ranked 2.78 average and make to the playoffs, but injuries and a loss of key contributors on the blue line have hurt the Stars’ scoring and team defense this year. Lehtonen’s struggles go back yet another year, to 2014-15, when he led the team to a 27th-ranked 3.13 team goals against and a tenth place finish in the Western Conference.

The Stars will be lucky if they finish tenth in the West in 2016-17. The team currently sits in sixth in the Central Division and tied for 12th overall in the conference, trailing the Calgary Flames by seven points for the final wild card spot. A closer look reveals that Dallas is averaging less than a point per game, putting them in a class with only the Avalanche, Arizona Coyotes, Winnipeg Jets, and Vancouver Canucks as the worst teams in the league. So, you might ask why the Stars should acquire Fleury with such little hope this season? The problem in Dallas extends beyond just this season. With Lehtonen and Niemi locked up for next year, unlikely to be tradeable assets or expansion selections, the team would be forced to buy out one or the other or stick with both of them for yet another season in 2017-18. The Stars also lack any promising prospects in the system to supplant either keeper. A trade with the Penguins seems to be the perfect fit to at least attempt to solve their goalie problems for a few reasons. First, Fleury can be the goalie of the future. At 32 years old, he is younger than both of their current options and was putting up high end numbers in each of the past two seasons. Fleury has shown an inability to play well as a backup, but when given an unchallenged starting role, has been much better. He also has two years remaining on his current contract with a $5.75MM cap hit, which is lower than Lehtonen’s. Any deal with Pittsburgh for Fleury would also help them to eliminate one of their two current goaltenders. If Pittsburgh deals away Fleury without finding a suitable veteran backup by the Trade Deadline, they will be left with the young Murray, who has had some injury troubles, and Tristan Jarry, who has yet to make an NHL appearance. An easy fix is to have the Stars throw in one of their goalies, likely Niemi, to serve as Murray’s backup. While he has been unimpressive in Dallas, Niemi at least has successful playoff experience should Murray get injured down the stretch or in the postseason. The Penguins can then always buy out Niemi after the season, which would be a much lesser burden in dollars and term than if they decide not to trade Fleury and are forced to buy him out instead. Finally, acquiring a solid starter in Fleury and trading Niemi (or Lehtonen) would allow the Stars, who have ample cap space heading into next season, to buyout their remaining backup, completely erasing the mistake that they made two years ago.

Despite Fleury’s struggles, he clearly presents an upgrade for the Stars. They also know that Pittsburgh is desperate to make a move to protect Murray. The fit is there and the cost will be cheap. Fleury to Dallas makes too much sense, so expect the chatter to only heat up as we head toward March 1st.

Stars Notes: Niemi, Oleksiak, Sharp

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Although Stars goaltender Antti Niemi struggled considerably in his last three outings (allowing 11 goals in 71 minutes in that span), head coach Lindy Ruff isn’t afraid to use him again in the near future, he told Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News.

Dallas has been juggling between Niemi and Kari Lehtonen on a regular basis as they look for at least one of them to get on a run but that has yet to happen as both have been well below average this season, hardly what the Stars were expecting when they made them the highest paid goaltending duo in the NHL.

Lehtonen has received the last three starts but he too has allowed 11 goals in that span (though to be fair, he played 177 minutes in those games).  Accordingly, Niemi may not have to wait that much longer before he gets another look.

More from Dallas:

  • Defenseman Jamie Oleksiak is expected to miss another 7-10 days as a result of his hand injuries, notes Mark Stepneski of Stars Inside Edge (Twitter link). Oleksiak has been out of the lineup since January 11th.  After spending most of the season as a healthy scratch early on, the 24 year old had been starting to play more before getting sidelined.  On the season, the 2011 first round pick has played in 20 games this season, scoring five goals while adding an assist.  If the Stars opt to sell at the trade deadline, Oleksiak would be in a prime position to take on a bigger role down the stretch.
  • Right winger Patrick Sharp dealt with a lot of motion sickness issues while dealing with two separate instances of post-concussion symptoms, writes Tracey Myers of CSN Chicago. He noted that he has been much more comfortable since returning back in late December and put up a productive month in January with five goals and five assists in 13 games.  If Dallas falls out of the playoff hunt, Sharp becomes a potential trade candidate but he will likely call the shots on a move as he can be dealt to just ten teams (while also carrying a pricey $5.9MM cap hit).

Trade Candidate: Jimmy Howard

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

Another trade candidate, another Red Wing. This time, we’ll look at veteran netminder Jimmy Howard, who has been the subject of trade rumors since last summer.

Contract

Six-year, $31.750MM deal. Three years remaining. $5.291MM AAV.

2016-17

In a season where the Red Wings have struggled tremendously, Howard has been the antidote to a team hemorrhaging goals. While Petr Mrazek was expected to be the stalwart in net, it’s been Howard and rookie Jared Coreau picking up the slack for Detroit. Howard, however, has succumbed to injury twice this season, but is close to coming back. The real question is which Howard will return? The dominant one? Or the Howard of seasons past, who has struggled to find his groove following injury?

Season Stats

GP: 17 (15 started): 5-7-1; .934 sv%; 1.96 GAA; .667 QS%

Potential Suitors

When healthy, Howard has been extremely good for the Red Wings. This season alone, on a team that is dreadful at both ends of the ice, Howard has stolen games while keeping the Wings in games they should have been out of early.

Dallas is one team to look at, especially since former Detroit assistant general manager Jim Nill is there. Though the Stars are trying to figure out what they are, Howard could be an asset with two years remaining and numbers that are certainly better than that of what the Stars currenly have in Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen. But outside of familiarity, there are few teams on the radar.

While Howard could fetch offers, there is one key reason he will scare off potential buyers.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Howard’s contract is a hinderance to any team interested. Still locked in for two seasons with over $10MM owed, few teams are going to bite on a deal that involves a strong performing, but injury prone goalie. While Howard’s name has been mentioned before, the Wings couldn’t peddle him elsewhere last summer.  There are also rumblings that Detroit could be growing impatient with Mrazek, and may dangle Mrazek as trade bait. But that could be speculation in a season that has been disastrous for a franchise not used to losing as often–and as badly–as they have been.

Stars GM Jim Nill On Goaltending, Roster Management, Identity

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After a strong season in 2015-16 that saw the Stars make the second round of the playoffs, expectations were high for Dallas heading into the season.  They’ve yet to live up to the hype though and find themselves out of the playoffs coming out of the holiday break.  General Manager Jim Nill sat down with Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News to talk about the team.  Here are some of the highlights:

On the goaltending which, aside from the last few weeks, has struggled this season:

“Our goalies have taken a pretty good beating from the outside, but I think they’ve been very good. Goals against isn’t just goaltending, it’s team defense and playing the right way and managing the puck. I think we’ve seen in recent weeks that when we’re better as a team at those things, then the goaltending numbers can be very good.”

The goaltending tandem of Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen is the most expensive in the league with a combined cap hit of $10.4MM.  For that money, they have a team save percentage of just .899, tied for 27th overall while they are allowing just over three goals per game.  While there’s no denying that they have plenty of firepower on paper, it’s difficult to win most nights knowing you’ll likely need to score four or more goals to do so.

In a follow-up question, Nill was asked if he foresaw the team making a run for the postseason with both netminders still on the team and the GM indicated that he doesn’t expect any changes at this time.

On carrying eight defensemen, one more than the standard seven that most teams carry:

“I just think you have to have it for depth. You’re going to have injuries, and you need that depth. In the end, the players decide who is going to play, and I think we’re settling into a group of six or seven, so that’s been good. But we could wake up tomorrow and two defensemen are hurt, so I like having the depth.”

While Dallas has an excess of depth at that position on their roster, it hasn’t necessarily helped in terms of developing some of their young blueliners.  Patrik Nemeth has been scratched for 19 games this season while Jamie Oleksiak has only played in a total of 14 games and is in his second of spending the bulk of his time in the press box.

On the identity of the team and if it changes from year to year:

“I think the core of your team dictates your identity, and we know what the strength of our core is. Now, injuries can force you to play a different style or force you to tweak or adjust, and I think we’ve seen that this year. We have an identity as a fast, skilled team, and I think we still are that. In more recent weeks, we have been more defensive, and in the long run that might be a good thing for us. I think you always have to be able to adapt.”

After coughing up six goals in the first game of the month, Dallas has been better defensively as of late, allowing just 21 goals in ten contests since then, well below their season average in goals allowed.

If Dallas plans to make a push to get back into the postseason (they currently sit three points out of the last wild card spot), they will need to keep up their improved play in their own zone, especially since the team isn’t scoring as much as they expected to at the beginning of the year (only two players are over 20 points currently in Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn).

Western Conference Notes: Stars, Red Wings, Labanc, Toews, Seabrook

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A year after riding the league’s most prolific offense to a Central Division title, the Dallas Stars have been beset by injuries and currently sit on the outside looking in at a postseason berth. Obviously the absences of key players like Ales Hemsky, Patrick Sharp, Jiri Hudler, Mattias Janmark and Cody Eakin for parts – or in the case of Janmark, all – of the season has played a role. However, Mike Heika addressed another possible factor for the team’s on-ice struggles in a recent mailbag feature.

When asked what trade he would make if he were the GM to improve the Stars, Heika suggested making a relatively minor deal sending blue liner Patrik Nemeth to Detroit for a goalie prospect. While on the surface it’s difficult to envision a trade of this nature having much of an impact on the ice for either team, Heika reasons that moving one of the eight defensemen on the roster would “alleviate the pressure of eight defensemen for the players and the coaching staff and that could immediately make a player such as Jamie Oleksiak better.” 

Ordinarily having quality depth is considered a good thing but perhaps not when it comes to the Stars blue line. As Heika suggests, carrying seven blue liners may allow head coach Lindy Ruff to more easily identify consistent defense pairings.

While this does not qualify as an actual trade rumor, Heika’s hypothetical deal does provide a look at what the Stars brass may actually consider at some point. The team does have solid depth on the back end and with neither Antti Niemi nor Kari Lehtonen performing well between the pipes for Dallas, the Stars could certainly find themselves in the market for a young goaltender-of-the-future.

  •  Highly-regarded rookie Kevin Labanc isn’t exactly lighting up the league with just three goals and five points in the first 14 games of his NHL career. But after going scoreless in his first four, the 20-year-old winger – 21 on December 12th – has been more productive of late with all of his points coming in the last 10 contests. As Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area writes, the mini outburst from Labanc has already helped the youngster leapfrog veteran forwards Joonas Donskoi, Joe Thornton and Mikkel Boedker in the goal-scoring department. As Kurz notes, Labanc’s contributions have likely earned him a regular role on the Sharks for the balance of 2016-17.
  • Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune provides an update on the status of Jonathan Toews and Brent Seabrook. Toews has missed the past eight contests with a back problem while Seabrook missed his first game of the season with an upper-body-injury. Hawks bench boss Joel Quennville has already said that before returning to the lineup, both players will need to skate with the team. To this point, neither player has been able to do so, though Seabrook’s injury is a recent development. The injury to Toews has to be of great concern to the Blackhawks. There is no timetable for a return and back injuries can be problematic, leading to the possibility Chicago’s top pivot could be odd for a while yet.

West Notes: Kings, Stars Goaltending, Shaw

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One of the bigger concerns for the Kings currently is a lack of secondary scoring, notes Elliott Teaford of the LA Daily News.  Through 26 games, they have just two players with more than five goals in Jeff Carter and Tanner Pearson.

Over the summer, the team lost Milan Lucic, Kris Versteeg, and Vincent Lecavalier and haven’t really had success replacing them.  It was hoped that Teddy Purcell would help at least cover the loss of one of Versteeg or Lecavalier but after collecting just two assists in 12 games, he cleared waivers and has been sent to the minors.

With Los Angeles currently in LTIR as a result of the injury to goaltender Jonathan Quick, they don’t have the financial flexibility to bring another scorer in so they will have to count on players like Anze Kopitar (two goals) and Tyler Toffoli (five goals) to pick up the slack and get back towards the level of production that they’ve provided in recent years.

[Related: Kings Depth Chart]

More from the West:

  • The Stars are into their second year with Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi as their goaltending tandem, the most expensive in the league. In a reader mailbag, Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News suggests that it might be in their best interest to move one of them instead of going with the ‘play the hot hand’ strategy that they are running.  He also feels that if they were to move one, they’d be better to deal Lehtonen even though he may be the more talented of the two.  However, he carries the higher cap hit ($5.9MM with a no-move clause through 2017-18 vs $4.5MM through 2017-18 for Niemi) and given the other goaltenders that are believed to be available, finding a desirable trade may be easier said than done.
  • Ducks right winger Logan Shaw admitted to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register that he was happy to be traded from the Panthers last month. Shaw failed to crack Florida’s lineup and cleared waivers at the beginning of the season but was flipped to Anaheim in a swap of AHL veterans.  Since being recalled on the 24th, he has played in all seven games with the Ducks, scoring once.  He has made a positive impression on head coach Randy Carlyle, who called Shaw “one of our brighter spots over the last little while”.  With the team placing Ryan Garbutt on waivers yesterday, it appears Shaw will be sticking around for a little while yet.

Snapshots: Uncertainty in Dallas, Hanzal

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The Dallas Stars are in a precarious position due to a number of factors writes Mike Heika. Besieged by injury, and seemingly in some form of hockey purgatory, Heika begins his column with prose:

The Stars are neither fish nor fowl.

They are not fast, yet they are not slow.

They are not young, yet they are not old.

They are not tough, yet they are not weak.

The Stars have been an enigma this season, expected to build on last year’s successes while bringing along a lot of the young, speedy talent that seemed ready to carry the team. Instead, Heika writes that the injuries to Mattias Janmark and Ales Hemsky altered the plan to include bigger, and albeit slower, forwards. Additionally, a more veteran blue line gave way for youth, which includes a learning curve as it acclimates to NHL talent.

Heika adds that with the uncertainty of the youth delivering, comes the unknowns associated with the 2017 offseason where a number of unrestricted free agents are set to be re-signed or hit the market. Those names include Patrick Sharp, Patrick Eaves, Jiri Hudler, Johnny Oduya, Adam Cracknell and Hemsky. Throw in what many analysts observe as a “shaky” goaltending tandem in Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen, and Heika indicates there’s yet another aspect of the team that may see change. Finally, head coach Lindy Ruff is in the final year of his contract.

What does it all mean? The Stars are a team in “no man’s land” according to Heika. Ruff put the team through a tough practice and indicated that the way through the inconsistency was to keep working. Heika is convinced it’s the one way that Dallas can determine what they’re truly made of.

In other Western Conference news:

  • Montreal needs help up front and Arizona’s Martin Hanzal may be just the the man to solve their problems writes Navin Vaswani. The 29-year-old could be had for a young NHL ready forward and Vaswani believes Phillip Danault could do the trick. But Vaswani adds that Marc Bergevin isn’t forced to make a trade at all. Pierre LeBrun tweets that he isn’t sure if the Habs’ interest in Hanzal has spiked since the injuries to Alex Galchenyuk and David Desharnais.  What he does indicate, is that regardless of what decision they make, injuries are part of the game and the Habs–whether they make a deal or not–must find a way to survive the injuries. LeBrun also adds that Arizona may still make a run at re-signing Hanzal.

Quotable: Stars GM On Eight Defensemen, Injuries, Nichushkin, Goalies

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Dallas Stars general manager Jim Nill sat down for an interview with Mike Heika of the Dallas News over the weekend.  The full interview is certainly worth a read but here are some of the highlights.

On whether there are any challenges associated with carrying eight defensemen instead of the standard seven:

“I don’t think so. I think you look at the schedule and it’s going to be a grind, so I really feel we will need that depth. You look at last season, and we didn’t need that depth until the end of the season, but if we didn’t have that depth, we would have been in trouble. So it worked out for us. I think this year, somebody steps in and somebody steps out, and we’re seeing growth in those players. Jamie Oleksiak, I think we’re seeing growth in him. Esa Lindell, we’re seeing growth in him. That’s what we want.”

Jamie Oleksiak’s situation has been well documented as he has effectively been the eighth blueliner dating back to last season.  He has played just 24 of a possible 98 regular season games since 2015-16, hardly an ideal scenario for a 23 year old former first round pick.

Regarding the decision to not utilize potential LTIR on right winger Ales Hemsky ($4MM cap hit) and Mattias Janmark ($800K cap hit), both of whom are out for at least several more months:

“It’s a complicated process, and that’s why we haven’t done it yet. But if we had to do that, we could and we could allow ourselves more spending space. To simplify it, I can just say we don’t anticipate any problems with the cap. We should be fine.”

The Stars currently have over $1.5MM in salary cap space according to Cap Friendly despite effectively carrying a 28-man roster due to all of the injuries they’re currently dealing with.  As some players return to the lineup, that number should only increase, suggesting that they’ll be in good shape moving forward without needing to dip into LTIR.

On the decision to let Valeri Nichushkin go back to the KHL – given the injury woes the team has up front, does Nill believe he should have been more flexible in negotiations with the former first rounder?

“No, not at all. We’re comfortable with the offer we gave and we’re comfortable with the process. Every contract you sign can affect another contract, especially with younger players. We made a decision, and he made a decision, and that’s just negotiations. I think in the end, it could be good for him to go back there and maybe mature, and then maybe when he has the opportunity, he will better understand what he has here and want to come back.”

Regarding one contract possibly affecting another, Nill later added that the team is trying to follow a certain structure when it comes to restricted free agents and that consistency in that process is important.  In recent years, the Stars have been pushing for shorter-term bridge deals with restricted free agents coming off their entry-level deals even though that goes against the current league-wide trend.

On the current struggles of goaltenders Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen:

“The numbers aren’t good, but at the same time I get back to the injuries and the team that’s in front of them. It’s a challenge for both of them, and I think there have been times when they have really stepped up. I think they both had great training camps, and they both have stepped up a times. We just need to strive to improve every game, but that’s the same for the whole team.”

The Stars currently have a team goals against average of 3.44, ranking 26th in the league and a team save percentage of .890, good for 27th.  Those are hardly ideal numbers for a team that is spending more money on their goaltenders (a combined $10.4MM) than any other team in the NHL.  In a follow-up question though, Nill noted that he isn’t worried about looking for an upgrade right now.

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